It wasn't long ago, that people were saying it would take (a black swan event) for the Tories, not to win next time, now they are saying the same about Labour winning next time. The truth is almost certainly somewhere in the middle, I think it would be truly remarkable for labour to poll anything like above 15% off the Tories. Starmer has always had a mountain to climb and its still there, and I bet Labour's private polling tells him as much, a wafer-thin majority is the best he can hope for, and that's only if Labour make some sort of recovery in scotland.Some of the seats Labour are predicted to win in the south, have been Tory for generations, they may eventually fall in say 10 years, when almost everyone is sick off the Tory bullshit, but not in 2024
I agree that it needed a black swan for the Tories to lose the election after 2019, and whether the Tories form the next government (I think that's about 20/80 or 15/85 - unlikely but possible) black swans arrived. Patersongate, Partygate, the economics of covid and post-covid, Boris utterly failing to lift his act his act up to PM level, the conversion of SKS to One Nation Toryism, small boats, the impossible and hilarious Truss days - these were green swans with purple stripes.
I agree that despite all that Labour can lose with no further black swans. Burgon, Pidcock and Abbott could lose it for them in a fortnight.
TransGender is a massive elephant trap waiting to swallow Labour the way it swallowed Sturgeon. The Woke Labour Left believes mad gender woowoo gibberish in a way that most people find offensive and stupid, and, what's more, the Woke believe it with a passion. They won't be budged, they will happily collide with public opinion (and come off worse)
However as there are more pressing issues to distract the public, Labour will probably manage to avoid this trap until they have already won the election. But then...
To win the Tories need to deliver economically. That means meaningful growth, not the odd tenths of a percent, increasing real wages and lower inflation. Possible? Yeah but not at all likely. They've had their turn.
In particular it means getting inflation back to the 2% to 3% which we have become used to in recent years, to enable people to regain confidence in the value of their earnings pensions and savings.
This is the KEY. Will it happen?
Probably not. Energy prices are now falling and that will help but food prices are rising really fast and there is little sign of that changing soon. Base rates have increased but remain severely negative in real terms. In most of my adult life interest rates would be about 12% by now, roughly 2% ahead of inflation. Sunak is proving competent. he is doing quite a lot of things right but things have been done wrong for so long that it is going to take a long time to turn the ship, much longer than he has.
To overturn Starmer's current landslide numbers, Sunak has to get hold of voters who like his pitch but would not have voted Tory as long as Johnson and Truss were in charge.
The key profiles would I think be
(1) The 30% who think Brexit was the right thing and wouldn't already vote Conservative. I suspect there aren't too many of these and in any case Starmer is also targeting this group.
(2) People who don't care about Brexit and think it normal to focus cost of living measures on those earning £100 000 per year
I'm sure those demographics exist, but it's it enough?
That’s not an unexpected result. Given that Yousaf is even further left than Sturgeon, and given that he has snubbed all Forbes supporters, I would expect the SNP to suffer in rural seats. Howe, there could be a differential swing, and Labour could do less well than they hope in central Scotland seats.
Interesting to see the Tories up as well as Labour.
That’s not an unexpected result. Given that Yousaf is even further left than Sturgeon, and given that he has snubbed all Forbes supporters, I would expect the SNP to suffer in rural seats. Howe, there could be a differential swing, and Labour could do less well than they hope in central Scotland seats.
That seems like a fairly charitable way to summarise a possibly more accurate explanation that folk just don't rate Yousaf.
Labour's problem is simple - its position is not based on positivity i.e. people support Labour's policies, it is based on negativity i.e. relying on the unpopularity of the Tories to win it power by default.
The problem with that is that Labour's position is somewhat based on events outside their control i.e. the behaviour of the Government. FWIW, anecdotally - and in several different independent contexts - I have heard multiple people express the view that Sunak is competent and getting things done.
I wonder whether part of Starmer's problem is that he is being advised by people such as Campbell and Mandleson who are thinking about the next GE in the frame of 1997. The two contexts are likely to be very different.
Interesting. We happen to live in times when, because of reasons, there are very few distinctive, important and interesting policies to be had. Not only have we very obviously run out of money and the simpler ways of growing an economy, we have also run out, mostly, of hope. For this the failure of Boris is a big part. if his hope filled boosterism doesn't work, whose will?
This sets a picture very different from 1997, when a more competent government than this one was beaten out of side by genius, idealism, hope and 'Time for a change'.
Really and genuinely well done for inclusion of that 'of' there and not saying "because reasons'.
Quite.
However, I disagree with the post. The solutions to growing the economy are the same as they ever were - the state doing less, but better, and companies, individuals and families able to spend more of their own money, which they invariably deploy more sensibly than the state. It is a great pity that the failure of Kwasi's budget announcment (the actual budget did not fail because it wasn't implemented) is that is has allowed people either through ignorance or speciousness, to claim that the guiding principles of modern capitalism have been upended.
But it is good that he used 'of' - well done.
That's what caught my eye and there's nothing trivial about it either.
As for your 'people spending money more sensibly than the state' - I'm afraid this is autopilot right wing cliche along the lines of 'the most terrifying words in the English language, I'm from the government and I'm here to help'.
The plain & simple fact is, people do NOT spend money more wisely than the government. Fags, scratch cards, drugs of varying types, clothes that get thrown away, bad food, things they thought they'd like then find they don't, climate destroying transport options, etc etc etc; every single day there are countless millions of unwise unsensible poor quality financial transactions carried out in the personal sphere. Far more so than when the government is signing the cheques. The government at least has to have a care for the collective best interest in how they spend money. People? No. They suck at this sort of thing.
Depressing that this pile of utter twaddle got 7 likes, but looking at the culprits, hardly surprising either.
People make a huge amount of micro-decisions when left to spend their own money, a few of which include 'sin' recreations (that the Government piles massive taxes on), some of which are clothes that employ people working in the third world, and then cycle through the economy, providing further benefit to those on low incomes and the charitable sector. Then there are the transport options that you allege are 'climate destroying' (I'm assuming you don't drive) that allow people to see friends, relatives, gain new experiences, fall in love, educate their kids etc. It all leads to growth, prosperity, and has been responsible for lifting us out of a state of gnawing on turnips in huts, to our present state of ease and comfort.
The Government on the other hand, spends billions on going to war to find non-existent WMDs, spends tens of billions on police forces that no longer investigate whole swathes of crime, spends hundreds of billions on health services that don't return people to health, education services that leave people illiterate, porous borders, useless defence, etc. etc. It is a typical response of all authoritarians, left or right, to blame the riff raff with their 'fags' and their 'scratch cards' for the failure of their grand social experiments. What a thoroughly loathsome view of humanity.
I have to agree. And it absolutely reeks of the desperate snobbery of the working class man who made it to Hampstead
Notice that all the things he condemns are the daily solace and necessities of the poor and and just-getting-by: fags, scratch cards, bad clothes, cheap food
Some people have no choice but to buy bad clothes and crap food - lack of time and money. Obviously. Some people get very little joy out of life (due to being poor, badly educated, not the smartest): if a few fags and scratch cards make the pitiful human condition better for THEM, then that is actually money well spent, from their perspective
I could point at rich people who jet off to Bangkok for weeks of meaningless and indulgent pleasure, or who spend fruitless hours considering buying lovely houses in Richmond, and I could say, what's the fucking benefit of that? How have you made the world a better place? Shouldn't the government spend that money FOR YOU, so society improves?
And yet I have a feeling @kinabalu would object to the Treasury restricting his agreeable house-hunting near Kew
It wasn't long ago, that people were saying it would take (a black swan event) for the Tories, not to win next time, now they are saying the same about Labour winning next time. The truth is almost certainly somewhere in the middle, I think it would be truly remarkable for labour to poll anything like above 15% off the Tories. Starmer has always had a mountain to climb and its still there, and I bet Labour's private polling tells him as much, a wafer-thin majority is the best he can hope for, and that's only if Labour make some sort of recovery in scotland.Some of the seats Labour are predicted to win in the south, have been Tory for generations, they may eventually fall in say 10 years, when almost everyone is sick off the Tory bullshit, but not in 2024
I agree that it needed a black swan for the Tories to lose the election after 2019, and whether the Tories form the next government (I think that's about 20/80 or 15/85 - unlikely but possible) black swans arrived. Patersongate, Partygate, the economics of covid and post-covid, Boris utterly failing to lift his act his act up to PM level, the conversion of SKS to One Nation Toryism, small boats, the impossible and hilarious Truss days - these were green swans with purple stripes.
I agree that despite all that Labour can lose with no further black swans. Burgon, Pidcock and Abbott could lose it for them in a fortnight.
TransGender is a massive elephant trap waiting to swallow Labour the way it swallowed Sturgeon. The Woke Labour Left believes mad gender woowoo gibberish in a way that most people find offensive and stupid, and, what's more, the Woke believe it with a passion. They won't be budged, they will happily collide with public opinion (and come off worse)
However as there are more pressing issues to distract the public, Labour will probably manage to avoid this trap until they have already won the election. But then...
To win the Tories need to deliver economically. That means meaningful growth, not the odd tenths of a percent, increasing real wages and lower inflation. Possible? Yeah but not at all likely. They've had their turn.
In particular it means getting inflation back to the 2% to 3% which we have become used to in recent years, to enable people to regain confidence in the value of their earnings pensions and savings.
This is the KEY. Will it happen?
Probably not. Energy prices are now falling and that will help but food prices are rising really fast and there is little sign of that changing soon. Base rates have increased but remain severely negative in real terms. In most of my adult life interest rates would be about 12% by now, roughly 2% ahead of inflation. Sunak is proving competent. he is doing quite a lot of things right but things have been done wrong for so long that it is going to take a long time to turn the ship, much longer than he has.
The big test of where we are in getting CPI under control is where we are by end 2023. If it is around 3/4/5% or less we are on the right track.
JOSIAS: (cautiously) Well everyone, I think it's time for my daily marathon again!
MRS. JESSOP: (trying to hide her pitiful hope) Are you sure, darling?
JOSIAS: (putting on tartan sou'wester) Yes. You kept telling me I could do this, so I will. Bye bye! See you in three or four hours, or thereabouts, depending on prevailing weather conditions.
JOSIAS leaves.
BEAT
MRS. JESSOP, sighing with relief, turning to GRANNY JESSOP: Thank God that fucker's gone.
GRANNY JESSOP: I was about to hit him with my skillet.
LITTLE 'UN: Can we get him to do ultra-marathons?
I’m sure he would enjoy running round the world, as would we all.
Well, I've walked 18571.7 miles since the beginning of 1999 (only walks logged on my website), which is only ~7,000 miles off the Earth's circumference. If you include running, I'm not far off it.
(And yes, I'm oddly proud of this. I've come a long way, both physically and in terms of distance. And all of that distance was in the UK...
It's not just urban America, rural locations were ruthlessly targeted by the Sacklers due to high rates manual labour and general boredom being two big draws to getting addicted to drugs.
It's shocking to me that a country with so many obvious problems with drug addiction is still so powerful. In Rome we got chatting to some Americans on a guided tour and they seemed amazed that the friendly tour guide could live in central Rome, afford a really decent lifestyle and be able to travel to places like London where she is going to visit some of her friends in May and went to Tokyo just last month.
Dominion WINS part of its defamation claims against Fox News on summary judgment, and Fox LOSES their bid to dismiss the remainder of the claims, which will go to trial.
Can @YBarddCwsc 's post from 20.53 be deleted, or amended to remove the personal info please?
It was unnecessary to mention the school my son attends - esp. as I don't think I've ever mentioned it. It is unpleasantly near doxxing. And yes, I'm aware doing this draws attention to it...
(This is not a call for the ban hammer; just a request that the post have the relevant details removed.)
The amazing stat in that piece is not (just) the lowered life expectancy, it is that New Orleans is the 8th most dangerous city on earth, by homicides per capita, and is more murderous than any city in Africa. All seven cities ahead of Nawlins are Mexican cities plunged into the drug war
Some parts of urban America are quasi African, but with nice buildings, and NASTIER crime.
And Woke Dem policies in these Woke Dem cities will only make this worse. This starts to feel like the End of Rome
Labour's problem is simple - its position is not based on positivity i.e. people support Labour's policies, it is based on negativity i.e. relying on the unpopularity of the Tories to win it power by default.
The problem with that is that Labour's position is somewhat based on events outside their control i.e. the behaviour of the Government. FWIW, anecdotally - and in several different independent contexts - I have heard multiple people express the view that Sunak is competent and getting things done.
I wonder whether part of Starmer's problem is that he is being advised by people such as Campbell and Mandleson who are thinking about the next GE in the frame of 1997. The two contexts are likely to be very different.
Interesting. We happen to live in times when, because of reasons, there are very few distinctive, important and interesting policies to be had. Not only have we very obviously run out of money and the simpler ways of growing an economy, we have also run out, mostly, of hope. For this the failure of Boris is a big part. if his hope filled boosterism doesn't work, whose will?
This sets a picture very different from 1997, when a more competent government than this one was beaten out of side by genius, idealism, hope and 'Time for a change'.
Really and genuinely well done for inclusion of that 'of' there and not saying "because reasons'.
Quite.
However, I disagree with the post. The solutions to growing the economy are the same as they ever were - the state doing less, but better, and companies, individuals and families able to spend more of their own money, which they invariably deploy more sensibly than the state. It is a great pity that the failure of Kwasi's budget announcment (the actual budget did not fail because it wasn't implemented) is that is has allowed people either through ignorance or speciousness, to claim that the guiding principles of modern capitalism have been upended.
But it is good that he used 'of' - well done.
That's what caught my eye and there's nothing trivial about it either.
As for your 'people spending money more sensibly than the state' - I'm afraid this is autopilot right wing cliche along the lines of 'the most terrifying words in the English language, I'm from the government and I'm here to help'.
The plain & simple fact is, people do NOT spend money more wisely than the government. Fags, scratch cards, drugs of varying types, clothes that get thrown away, bad food, things they thought they'd like then find they don't, climate destroying transport options, etc etc etc; every single day there are countless millions of unwise unsensible poor quality financial transactions carried out in the personal sphere. Far more so than when the government is signing the cheques. The government at least has to have a care for the collective best interest in how they spend money. People? No. They suck at this sort of thing.
Depressing that this pile of utter twaddle got 7 likes, but looking at the culprits, hardly surprising either.
People make a huge amount of micro-decisions when left to spend their own money, a few of which include 'sin' recreations (that the Government piles massive taxes on), some of which are clothes that employ people working in the third world, and then cycle through the economy, providing further benefit to those on low incomes and the charitable sector. Then there are the transport options that you allege are 'climate destroying' (I'm assuming you don't drive) that allow people to see friends, relatives, gain new experiences, fall in love, educate their kids etc. It all leads to growth, prosperity, and has been responsible for lifting us out of a state of gnawing on turnips in huts, to our present state of ease and comfort.
The Government on the other hand, spends billions on going to war to find non-existent WMDs, spends tens of billions on police forces that no longer investigate whole swathes of crime, spends hundreds of billions on health services that don't return people to health, education services that leave people illiterate, porous borders, useless defence, etc. etc. It is a typical response of all authoritarians, left or right, to blame the riff raff with their 'fags' and their 'scratch cards' for the failure of their grand social experiments. What a thoroughly loathsome view of humanity.
The general problem with public sector spending is that the government are risk averse, and they have decision making processes that are subject to political interference. On the other side of the equation they can sometimes be more efficient through economies of scale and have an ability to borrow money at low rates of interest, so they can make things happen without relying on the vagaries of market forces. So there is no simple answer.
The amazing stat in that piece is not (just) the lowered life expectancy, it is that New Orleans is the 8th most dangerous city on earth, by homicides per capita, and is more murderous than any city in Africa. All seven cities ahead of Nawlins are Mexican cities plunged into the drug war
Some parts of urban America are quasi African, but with nice buildings, and NASTIER crime.
And Woke Dem policies in these Woke Dem cities will only make this worse. This starts to feel like the End of Rome
Compare this to London which has a population of 9 million and has had 19 homicides so far this year.
Things are so bad for the Nats I reckon they would take that. Trouble is, Humza is so Yousless it is likely to get a lot worse. And indy has disappeared to the far far horizon, which will direfully split the party. It has to.. Anybody in the SNP whose main ambition is indy, and merely tolerates the politics, will no longer tolerate the politics, if indy is off the menu
Moderator or anyone else with relative permissions:
Can @YBarddCwsc 's post from 20.53 be deleted, or amended to remove the personal info please?
It was unnecessary to mention the school my son attends - esp. as I don't think I've ever mentioned it. It is unpleasantly near doxxing.
(This is not a call for the ban hammer; just a request that the post have the relevant details removed.)
You don't have to babble your private life all over pb.com ... but if you do, then you should not blame a poster when a detail you freely divulged is repeated.
But if they ask it not to be repeated that's only polite. People may not have considered the full implications of previous disclosures and it need not be treated like its impossible to claw back.
The amazing stat in that piece is not (just) the lowered life expectancy, it is that New Orleans is the 8th most dangerous city on earth, by homicides per capita, and is more murderous than any city in Africa. All seven cities ahead of Nawlins are Mexican cities plunged into the drug war
Some parts of urban America are quasi African, but with nice buildings, and NASTIER crime.
And Woke Dem policies in these Woke Dem cities will only make this worse. This starts to feel like the End of Rome
But the "woke Dem policies" are quickly in reverse, as Joe Biden ramps up police budgets. The real problem driving America's heinous murder rates is guns. Guns are now the leading cause of death for children. And while Dems do a reverse ferret when their policies go bad, Republicans double down. You have so coded anti-left wing politics into your confirmation bias, you can't see when the problem is the right.
Great time for the news to drop, Fox can spend time talking about itself rather than Trump - which given what this lawsuit reveals is something they wish they could do more of.
Watching Humza Yousaf’s first appearance as first minister at Holyrood, a horrible thought occurred: “Come back Henry McLeish, much is forgiven”. The charitable verdict on the new chap’s debut performance is that he was stricken with nerves and will henceforth improve. The other verdicts scarcely bear contemplation.
The amazing stat in that piece is not (just) the lowered life expectancy, it is that New Orleans is the 8th most dangerous city on earth, by homicides per capita, and is more murderous than any city in Africa. All seven cities ahead of Nawlins are Mexican cities plunged into the drug war
Some parts of urban America are quasi African, but with nice buildings, and NASTIER crime.
And Woke Dem policies in these Woke Dem cities will only make this worse. This starts to feel like the End of Rome
But the "woke Dem policies" are quickly in reverse, as Joe Biden ramps up police budgets. The real problem driving America's heinous murder rates is guns. Guns are now the leading cause of death for children. And while Dems do a reverse ferret when their policies go bad, Republicans double down. You have so coded anti-left wing politics into your confirmation bias, you can't see when the problem is the right.
Feck off old chap. I see the whole
The entirety of America is wracked with infernal problems, some come from the Left, some the Right, some are just weird bad luck - like the coincidence of Covidy working-from-home colliding with America's innate preference for suburbs and cars leading to dead cities and downtowns
The Right is responsible largely for the terrible gun problem. Both sides are, in different ways, responsible for the drug issue. The Left is responsible for the Wokeness that drives parents (and others) from crime ridden cities that boast schools obsessed with drag shows, while abandoning merit in favour of "equity"
Nor is the rest of the West immune to this decline. It is universal. America does it more flamboyantly and extravagantly
Joe Biden will not attend the King’s Coronation next month, The Telegraph understands.
The US president is “not expected” to join dozens of heads of state for the event on May 6, according to sources close to discussions, and will send a delegation in his place.
I wonder whether the increase in Other is a few folk considering Alba. Also the drop in Green support could be linked to their association with the bottle deposit scheme, as well as GRR. I also wonder whether there is an increase in Don’t Knows. I would expect an increase.
Joe Biden will not attend the King’s Coronation next month, The Telegraph understands.
The US president is “not expected” to join dozens of heads of state for the event on May 6, according to sources close to discussions, and will send a delegation in his place.
Seems sound. No idea who was at the last coronation but it seems like the sort of thing that commonwealth realm PMs, other monarchs, and some european heads of state would attend, with others sending reps.
Joe Biden will not attend the King’s Coronation next month, The Telegraph understands.
The US president is “not expected” to join dozens of heads of state for the event on May 6, according to sources close to discussions, and will send a delegation in his place.
Also, of the 10 most criminal states, 8 are deeply red. People wanting to blame minorities and "wokeness" are either gullible stooges or deliberate racists cherry picking data.
That's all very well, but when you are a block north of Bourbon Street and you hear brutal and criminal gunfire, and someone dying, it feels a lot nearer to you personally than the fact that, per capita, just as many people are *statistically* murdered in Nowhere County Montana, population 333, with 1 murder a year
Great time for the news to drop, Fox can spend time talking about itself rather than Trump - which given what this lawsuit reveals is something they wish they could do more of.
Actual malice still to prove though.
Yes - though given the circumstances of the obvious lies, I think they have a pretty good shot at it in court.
Good News! The new CPTPP deal might be worth 8p for every £100 in 10years time (according to BBC News).
We are turning into a joke. A theme park. Perhaps we can call ourselves CPTPP 5. UK
That's got a nice Bauhaus ring about it
BBC news is not a reliable source. You ought to know that
Roger is in advertising, you are surprised he hypes propaganda?
None of the main Media sources is reliable. Sky .. never wrong for long. GB news risible. ITV never watch BBc online possibly. My news comes from.the Times which I trust more than the others but its getting more bland and Sun like.....v worrying.
*No* single source of information is reliable. even (shock, horror!) PB!
Use many sources, but rate them according to their reliability in your view - and whether they all get their sources from the same input. If (say) the Times and the Guardian give similar information, it *may* be roughly near the truth - especially if they are reporting from different sources.
As an exercise for the reader: how do we *know* that the Russians are *losing* in Ukraine? (I think I could give a reasonable argument for this).
But going further: how do we *know* a war is actually going on in Ukraine? I've met a couple of refugees from it, but they may have been plants. And I haven't been to the area the so-called 'war' is allegedly going on in.
Watching Humza Yousaf’s first appearance as first minister at Holyrood, a horrible thought occurred: “Come back Henry McLeish, much is forgiven”. The charitable verdict on the new chap’s debut performance is that he was stricken with nerves and will henceforth improve. The other verdicts scarcely bear contemplation.
However, Bob Seely, a Conservative MP on the foreign affairs select committee, said the White House had made a “foolish decision” and urged Mr Biden to rethink his schedule.
“It seems pretty remiss, and I’m tempted to say more fool him for not coming,” he said. “This is a once-in-a-lifetime event, and you would have thought he should come because he’s a head of state.
“If I was the President of the United States, I would come to the Coronation of the King of England – there’s no two ways about it. It just seems to be a foolish decision.”
The amazing stat in that piece is not (just) the lowered life expectancy, it is that New Orleans is the 8th most dangerous city on earth, by homicides per capita, and is more murderous than any city in Africa. All seven cities ahead of Nawlins are Mexican cities plunged into the drug war
Some parts of urban America are quasi African, but with nice buildings, and NASTIER crime.
And Woke Dem policies in these Woke Dem cities will only make this worse. This starts to feel like the End of Rome
But the "woke Dem policies" are quickly in reverse, as Joe Biden ramps up police budgets. The real problem driving America's heinous murder rates is guns. Guns are now the leading cause of death for children. And while Dems do a reverse ferret when their policies go bad, Republicans double down. You have so coded anti-left wing politics into your confirmation bias, you can't see when the problem is the right.
Feck off old chap. I see the whole
The entirety of America is wracked with infernal problems, some come from the Left, some the Right, some are just weird bad luck - like the coincidence of Covidy working-from-home colliding with America's innate preference for suburbs and cars leading to dead cities and downtowns
The Right is responsible largely for the terrible gun problem. Both sides are, in different ways, responsible for the drug issue. The Left is responsible for the Wokeness that drives parents (and others) from crime ridden cities that boast schools obsessed with drag shows, while abandoning merit in favour of "equity"
Nor is the rest of the West immune to this decline. It is universal. America does it more flamboyantly and extravagantly
Also, of the 10 most criminal states, 8 are deeply red. People wanting to blame minorities and "wokeness" are either gullible stooges or deliberate racists cherry picking data.
Why, then, are American people fleeing blue Democrat states and cities, and flocking to Red Republican states and cities?
The demographic stats are stark and they do not lie. Texas, Tennessee and Florida are flourishing; New York, California, Illinois, and the like, are not
Also, of the 10 most criminal states, 8 are deeply red. People wanting to blame minorities and "wokeness" are either gullible stooges or deliberate racists cherry picking data.
Why, then, are American people fleeing blue Democrat states and cities, and flocking to Red Republican states and cities?
The demographic stats are stark and they do not lie. Texas, Tennessee and Florida are flourishing; New York, California, Illinois, and the like, are not
Because New York, California and Illinois are richer, wealthier places where living costs are a lot more expensive than in historically poor Texas, Tennessee and Florida. People are also flocking to Washington state and Colorado. In addition, New York and Illinois have miserable winters while Texas, Tennessee and Florida are in the sunbelt.
Things are so bad for the Nats I reckon they would take that. Trouble is, Humza is so Yousless it is likely to get a lot worse. And indy has disappeared to the far far horizon, which will direfully split the party. It has to.. Anybody in the SNP whose main ambition is indy, and merely tolerates the politics, will no longer tolerate the politics, if indy is off the menu
This is a bad recipe for the Natz
Good. The SNP seem to have forgotten their role. They lost the referendum, and the evidence that Scots want independence on the whole does not exist.
The SNP job was to so run the country so that it was persuasive in deed and word that independence was possible and right for all Scots.
They have been unpersuasive, and run the country sub-optimally. And now failed to elect a star performer to do the job they exist for.
At least Forbes has the important job of looking after a baby.
Things are so bad for the Nats I reckon they would take that. Trouble is, Humza is so Yousless it is likely to get a lot worse. And indy has disappeared to the far far horizon, which will direfully split the party. It has to.. Anybody in the SNP whose main ambition is indy, and merely tolerates the politics, will no longer tolerate the politics, if indy is off the menu
This is a bad recipe for the Natz
Good. The SNP seem to have forgotten their role. They lost the referendum, and the evidence that Scots want independence on the whole does not exist.
The SNP job was to so run the country so that it was persuasive in deed and word that independence was possible and right for all Scots.
They have been unpersuasive, and run the country sub-optimally. And now failed to elect a star performer to do the job they exist for.
At least Forbes has the important job of looking after a baby.
Which will stand her in good stead for managing independence - as Leon so often reminds us.
Also, of the 10 most criminal states, 8 are deeply red. People wanting to blame minorities and "wokeness" are either gullible stooges or deliberate racists cherry picking data.
Why, then, are American people fleeing blue Democrat states and cities, and flocking to Red Republican states and cities?
The demographic stats are stark and they do not lie. Texas, Tennessee and Florida are flourishing; New York, California, Illinois, and the like, are not
Because New York, California and Illinois are richer, wealthier places where living costs are a lot more expensive than in historically poor Texas, Tennessee and Florida. People are also flocking to Washington state and Colorado. In addition, New York and Illinois have miserable winters while Texas, Tennessee and Florida are in the sunbelt.
"Real indictment of progressive urban governance that the counties losing the most residents are mostly in blue states 😬😬😬"
If you could spend that time cloning yourself a few times and sending replica dixiedeans out to fill a few vacancies, that would be splendid. Enjoy your break!
Also, of the 10 most criminal states, 8 are deeply red. People wanting to blame minorities and "wokeness" are either gullible stooges or deliberate racists cherry picking data.
Why, then, are American people fleeing blue Democrat states and cities, and flocking to Red Republican states and cities?
The demographic stats are stark and they do not lie. Texas, Tennessee and Florida are flourishing; New York, California, Illinois, and the like, are not
I can't see that Tennessee is doing well. Going by the metrics it seems to be in the bottom half for most and particularly bad for education and crime. Even the median income is lower than here. Its got fiscal stability though so what money it has is safe.
None of the states you mention break the bottom 25% for crime. Texas is 40th, Florida 45th and Tennessee is flourishing at 48th.
Also, of the 10 most criminal states, 8 are deeply red. People wanting to blame minorities and "wokeness" are either gullible stooges or deliberate racists cherry picking data.
Why, then, are American people fleeing blue Democrat states and cities, and flocking to Red Republican states and cities?
The demographic stats are stark and they do not lie. Texas, Tennessee and Florida are flourishing; New York, California, Illinois, and the like, are not
Because New York, California and Illinois are richer, wealthier places where living costs are a lot more expensive than in historically poor Texas, Tennessee and Florida. People are also flocking to Washington state and Colorado. In addition, New York and Illinois have miserable winters while Texas, Tennessee and Florida are in the sunbelt.
Also, the right wing narrative of "people are fleeing blue states because of all the crime" doesn't even make sense even if you don't look at red states.
The most dangerous blue states are Maryland, Illinois and Delaware. Maryland and Delaware are growing.
The blue states most being left are California, New York and Illinois. Only Illinois is dangerous. California and New York are in the top third safest states.
Things are so bad for the Nats I reckon they would take that. Trouble is, Humza is so Yousless it is likely to get a lot worse. And indy has disappeared to the far far horizon, which will direfully split the party. It has to.. Anybody in the SNP whose main ambition is indy, and merely tolerates the politics, will no longer tolerate the politics, if indy is off the menu
This is a bad recipe for the Natz
Good. The SNP seem to have forgotten their role. They lost the referendum, and the evidence that Scots want independence on the whole does not exist.
The SNP job was to so run the country so that it was persuasive in deed and word that independence was possible and right for all Scots.
They have been unpersuasive, and run the country sub-optimally. And now failed to elect a star performer to do the job they exist for.
At least Forbes has the important job of looking after a baby.
That was Kate Forbes’ manifesto. Unfortunately, slightly more SNP members decided that wokery was more important.
(The context is that they were trying to focus on their shows truthfully reporting about allegations being made, and that the content of the statements they republished was essentially immaterial).
Also, of the 10 most criminal states, 8 are deeply red. People wanting to blame minorities and "wokeness" are either gullible stooges or deliberate racists cherry picking data.
Why, then, are American people fleeing blue Democrat states and cities, and flocking to Red Republican states and cities?
The demographic stats are stark and they do not lie. Texas, Tennessee and Florida are flourishing; New York, California, Illinois, and the like, are not
I can't see that Tennessee is doing well. Going by the metrics it seems to be in the bottom half for most and particularly bad for education and crime. Even the median income is lower than here. Its got fiscal stability though so what money it has is safe.
None of the states you mention break the bottom 25% for crime. Texas is 40th, Florida 45th and Tennessee is flourishing at 48th.
I'm talking about population movements
"The current metro area population of Nashville in 2023 is 1,315,000, a 1.62% increase from 2022. The metro area population of Nashville in 2022 was 1,294,000, a 1.73% increase from 2021. The metro area population of Nashville in 2021 was 1,272,000, a 1.84% increase from 2020."
"During the final year of the two-year span, from July 2021 to July 2022, California lost about 211,000 people, according to data from the state Department of Finance. Nearly half — 113,048 — were from Los Angeles County, the most populous of California's 58 counties."
LA has a better climate than Nashville. Both are cities. This is Woke, and drugs, at work
Cumbria is going back to being Cumberland and Westmorland (and Furness).
Good riddance to two-tier local government.
As an example of the nonsense: Craven Council responsible for dealing with the rubbish in your bin. North Yorkshire Council responsible for dealing with the rubbish you take to the tip.
Cumbria is going back to being Cumberland and Westmorland (and Furness).
People tend not to care about their local council (indeed, many genuinely have no clue despite being billed by them), yet get super annoyed when they are changed or abolished.
Some of the new ones are not perfect by any means, but it's still an improvement.
Government should plough ahead with more uniform local goverment reorganisation. They've done it before, and Whitehall and Westminster have no problems interferring when they feel it necessary (which is a lot), so pussyfooting about with haphazard and inconsistent devolution or whatever is just dumb.
Away with districts and empower parishes if you want real localism.
If you could spend that time cloning yourself a few times and sending replica dixiedeans out to fill a few vacancies, that would be splendid. Enjoy your break!
Gee. Thanks. Not sure I'm confident that would benefit society much.
Also, of the 10 most criminal states, 8 are deeply red. People wanting to blame minorities and "wokeness" are either gullible stooges or deliberate racists cherry picking data.
Why, then, are American people fleeing blue Democrat states and cities, and flocking to Red Republican states and cities?
The demographic stats are stark and they do not lie. Texas, Tennessee and Florida are flourishing; New York, California, Illinois, and the like, are not
Because New York, California and Illinois are richer, wealthier places where living costs are a lot more expensive than in historically poor Texas, Tennessee and Florida. People are also flocking to Washington state and Colorado. In addition, New York and Illinois have miserable winters while Texas, Tennessee and Florida are in the sunbelt.
Also, the right wing narrative of "people are fleeing blue states because of all the crime" doesn't even make sense even if you don't look at red states.
The most dangerous blue states are Maryland, Illinois and Delaware. Maryland and Delaware are growing.
The blue states most being left are California, New York and Illinois. Only Illinois is dangerous. California and New York are in the top third safest states.
I suspect you havr to drill down a but geographically to identify trends. States ate big and unwieldy and difficult to compare. Some have citues, some suburbs, some neither. My guess might be Maryland and Delaware growing at the expense of DC? I would be surprised if Maryland was growing with people moving to Baltimore. But I haven't seej the stats.
Also, of the 10 most criminal states, 8 are deeply red. People wanting to blame minorities and "wokeness" are either gullible stooges or deliberate racists cherry picking data.
Why, then, are American people fleeing blue Democrat states and cities, and flocking to Red Republican states and cities?
The demographic stats are stark and they do not lie. Texas, Tennessee and Florida are flourishing; New York, California, Illinois, and the like, are not
Because New York, California and Illinois are richer, wealthier places where living costs are a lot more expensive than in historically poor Texas, Tennessee and Florida. People are also flocking to Washington state and Colorado. In addition, New York and Illinois have miserable winters while Texas, Tennessee and Florida are in the sunbelt.
"Real indictment of progressive urban governance that the counties losing the most residents are mostly in blue states 😬😬😬"
California probably has the best climate in the USA, if you like warmth and sun without extremes. It is losing more people than anywhere else
I haven't denied that red states are growing. I have explained why: they have some of the lowest housing cost, on account of them being historically underpopulated, poor places as a result of slavery and segregation. What I have said is bullshit is people leaving blue states because of crime. The most dangerous states are almost all red.
California is a pretty safe state. Yes, it has great weather. That was a secondary factor I mentioned for New York and Illinois. The reason people are leaving California is because of incredibly high housing costs. Metro San Francisco makes London look cheap.
You are responding to my argument that you are cherry picking data by doing more cherry picking. Crime is worst in Republican states because of their absurd gun laws.
Watching Humza Yousaf’s first appearance as first minister at Holyrood, a horrible thought occurred: “Come back Henry McLeish, much is forgiven”. The charitable verdict on the new chap’s debut performance is that he was stricken with nerves and will henceforth improve. The other verdicts scarcely bear contemplation.
Been a bit busy but just caught up with the discussion about whether my translation work is doomed. Probably not, but it's changing. What's happened is that agencies are now having AI do the first draft and paying people like me to polish it. It takes about 40% of the time that direct translation used to take, and is paid at about 60% of the previous rate. So the agency is able to increase profits or cut prices by 40%, but my earnings per hour have gone up.
The AI translations are generally excellent at first glance - zero spelling errors, near-zero grammatical errors, and a decent shot at even arcane terminology. Where it goes wrong is in three specific areas which are quite hard to fix:
1. It's bad at consistency. My clients (usually the European Commission, but also other bodies involved in legal terminology) set enormous store by having the same words for the same thing. If clause 5 says it;s illegal to park on double yellow lines, clause 6 mustn't elaborate by talking about duplicate, dual or repeated yellow lines. I assume the problem is that the AI draws on thousands of similar but slightly different sentences, and just changing a word or two near the word in question produces a different result.
2. It's weak at choosing between alternative meanings according to context. Is a barrel part of a gun, or a container for beer? If there's a list of things without flowing sentences, it has a stab at it but, crucially, doesn't flag that it's not sure. A human translator in doubt will highlight the sentence as needing the client to check.
3. It struggles with sentence order. The Danish-English AI is pretty good, because the sentence structure is similar. German to English less so, and you get "the supplier informs the contractor" when it should be "the contractor informs the supplier".
Leon says it's better than Google Translate. Well, yes, but Google Translate is inadequate for any serious translation, though perfectly adequate to get the gist.
I think that demand for "good enough" translation will indeed plummet as AI takes over. But if it's something that just HAS to be right - laws, safety instructions, etc. - then I think you do need a human for now.
Also, of the 10 most criminal states, 8 are deeply red. People wanting to blame minorities and "wokeness" are either gullible stooges or deliberate racists cherry picking data.
Why, then, are American people fleeing blue Democrat states and cities, and flocking to Red Republican states and cities?
The demographic stats are stark and they do not lie. Texas, Tennessee and Florida are flourishing; New York, California, Illinois, and the like, are not
Because New York, California and Illinois are richer, wealthier places where living costs are a lot more expensive than in historically poor Texas, Tennessee and Florida. People are also flocking to Washington state and Colorado. In addition, New York and Illinois have miserable winters while Texas, Tennessee and Florida are in the sunbelt.
Also, the right wing narrative of "people are fleeing blue states because of all the crime" doesn't even make sense even if you don't look at red states.
The most dangerous blue states are Maryland, Illinois and Delaware. Maryland and Delaware are growing.
The blue states most being left are California, New York and Illinois. Only Illinois is dangerous. California and New York are in the top third safest states.
I suspect you havr to drill down a but geographically to identify trends. States ate big and unwieldy and difficult to compare. Some have citues, some suburbs, some neither. My guess might be Maryland and Delaware growing at the expense of DC? I would be surprised if Maryland was growing with people moving to Baltimore. But I haven't seej the stats.
DC is a rapidly growing city, so that isn't happening at all. Maryland's growth is the overspill from DC. Baltimore's growth is flat.
Also, of the 10 most criminal states, 8 are deeply red. People wanting to blame minorities and "wokeness" are either gullible stooges or deliberate racists cherry picking data.
Why, then, are American people fleeing blue Democrat states and cities, and flocking to Red Republican states and cities?
The demographic stats are stark and they do not lie. Texas, Tennessee and Florida are flourishing; New York, California, Illinois, and the like, are not
I can't see that Tennessee is doing well. Going by the metrics it seems to be in the bottom half for most and particularly bad for education and crime. Even the median income is lower than here. Its got fiscal stability though so what money it has is safe.
None of the states you mention break the bottom 25% for crime. Texas is 40th, Florida 45th and Tennessee is flourishing at 48th.
I'm talking about population movements
"The current metro area population of Nashville in 2023 is 1,315,000, a 1.62% increase from 2022. The metro area population of Nashville in 2022 was 1,294,000, a 1.73% increase from 2021. The metro area population of Nashville in 2021 was 1,272,000, a 1.84% increase from 2020."
"During the final year of the two-year span, from July 2021 to July 2022, California lost about 211,000 people, according to data from the state Department of Finance. Nearly half — 113,048 — were from Los Angeles County, the most populous of California's 58 counties."
LA has a better climate than Nashville. Both are cities. This is Woke, and drugs, at work
Doesn't seem to be drugs, you're more likely to overdose and die in Tennessee and Florida than California although Texas is the clear winner. I'd be surprised if cost of living and work from home weren't playing a greater part than woke or drugs but we've all our peccadillos so who knows?
Cumbria is going back to being Cumberland and Westmorland (and Furness).
Good riddance to two-tier local government.
As an example of the nonsense: Craven Council responsible for dealing with the rubbish in your bin. North Yorkshire Council responsible for dealing with the rubbish you take to the tip.
But it's the SNP that are responsible for the rubbish in the First Minister's office.
Also, of the 10 most criminal states, 8 are deeply red. People wanting to blame minorities and "wokeness" are either gullible stooges or deliberate racists cherry picking data.
Why, then, are American people fleeing blue Democrat states and cities, and flocking to Red Republican states and cities?
The demographic stats are stark and they do not lie. Texas, Tennessee and Florida are flourishing; New York, California, Illinois, and the like, are not
Because New York, California and Illinois are richer, wealthier places where living costs are a lot more expensive than in historically poor Texas, Tennessee and Florida. People are also flocking to Washington state and Colorado. In addition, New York and Illinois have miserable winters while Texas, Tennessee and Florida are in the sunbelt.
"Real indictment of progressive urban governance that the counties losing the most residents are mostly in blue states 😬😬😬"
California probably has the best climate in the USA, if you like warmth and sun without extremes. It is losing more people than anywhere else
I haven't denied that red states are growing. I have explained why: they have some of the lowest housing cost, on account of them being historically underpopulated, poor places as a result of slavery and segregation. What I have said is bullshit is people leaving blue states because of crime. The most dangerous states are almost all red.
California is a pretty safe state. Yes, it has great weather. That was a secondary factor I mentioned for New York and Illinois. The reason people are leaving California is because of incredibly high housing costs. Metro San Francisco makes London look cheap.
You are responding to my argument that you are cherry picking data by doing more cherry picking. Crime is worst in Republican states because of their absurd gun laws.
I'm not cherry picking, I agree it is complex. I have already said - see below - that both sides of America's bitter political divide are responsible for America's ills. Plus a lot of it is dumb bad luck (or malign actions by China). Also, Europe has major problems of its own, and lacks many of America's abiding virtues
But if I had to force some policies in America I would cancel Wokeness AND cancel the 2nd Amendment, thus angering both sides, equally
Also, of the 10 most criminal states, 8 are deeply red. People wanting to blame minorities and "wokeness" are either gullible stooges or deliberate racists cherry picking data.
Why, then, are American people fleeing blue Democrat states and cities, and flocking to Red Republican states and cities?
The demographic stats are stark and they do not lie. Texas, Tennessee and Florida are flourishing; New York, California, Illinois, and the like, are not
Because New York, California and Illinois are richer, wealthier places where living costs are a lot more expensive than in historically poor Texas, Tennessee and Florida. People are also flocking to Washington state and Colorado. In addition, New York and Illinois have miserable winters while Texas, Tennessee and Florida are in the sunbelt.
"Real indictment of progressive urban governance that the counties losing the most residents are mostly in blue states 😬😬😬"
Also, of the 10 most criminal states, 8 are deeply red. People wanting to blame minorities and "wokeness" are either gullible stooges or deliberate racists cherry picking data.
Why, then, are American people fleeing blue Democrat states and cities, and flocking to Red Republican states and cities?
The demographic stats are stark and they do not lie. Texas, Tennessee and Florida are flourishing; New York, California, Illinois, and the like, are not
I can't see that Tennessee is doing well. Going by the metrics it seems to be in the bottom half for most and particularly bad for education and crime. Even the median income is lower than here. Its got fiscal stability though so what money it has is safe.
None of the states you mention break the bottom 25% for crime. Texas is 40th, Florida 45th and Tennessee is flourishing at 48th.
I'm talking about population movements
"The current metro area population of Nashville in 2023 is 1,315,000, a 1.62% increase from 2022. The metro area population of Nashville in 2022 was 1,294,000, a 1.73% increase from 2021. The metro area population of Nashville in 2021 was 1,272,000, a 1.84% increase from 2020."
"During the final year of the two-year span, from July 2021 to July 2022, California lost about 211,000 people, according to data from the state Department of Finance. Nearly half — 113,048 — were from Los Angeles County, the most populous of California's 58 counties."
LA has a better climate than Nashville. Both are cities. This is Woke, and drugs, at work
That’s not an unexpected result. Given that Yousaf is even further left than Sturgeon, and given that he has snubbed all Forbes supporters, I would expect the SNP to suffer in rural seats. Howe, there could be a differential swing, and Labour could do less well than they hope in central Scotland seats.
Interesting to see the Tories up as well as Labour.
Quite possible for SNP parliamentary party at Westminster to be decimated even if they have highest voteshare - if Lab and Con concentrate their votes in their respective target areas. That's why resilience of Scots Tory vote is so ominous for Yousaf. It will be piling up in the areas where Labour are out of the running.
Also, of the 10 most criminal states, 8 are deeply red. People wanting to blame minorities and "wokeness" are either gullible stooges or deliberate racists cherry picking data.
Why, then, are American people fleeing blue Democrat states and cities, and flocking to Red Republican states and cities?
The demographic stats are stark and they do not lie. Texas, Tennessee and Florida are flourishing; New York, California, Illinois, and the like, are not
Because New York, California and Illinois are richer, wealthier places where living costs are a lot more expensive than in historically poor Texas, Tennessee and Florida. People are also flocking to Washington state and Colorado. In addition, New York and Illinois have miserable winters while Texas, Tennessee and Florida are in the sunbelt.
"Real indictment of progressive urban governance that the counties losing the most residents are mostly in blue states 😬😬😬"
Also, of the 10 most criminal states, 8 are deeply red. People wanting to blame minorities and "wokeness" are either gullible stooges or deliberate racists cherry picking data.
Why, then, are American people fleeing blue Democrat states and cities, and flocking to Red Republican states and cities?
The demographic stats are stark and they do not lie. Texas, Tennessee and Florida are flourishing; New York, California, Illinois, and the like, are not
Because New York, California and Illinois are richer, wealthier places where living costs are a lot more expensive than in historically poor Texas, Tennessee and Florida. People are also flocking to Washington state and Colorado. In addition, New York and Illinois have miserable winters while Texas, Tennessee and Florida are in the sunbelt.
"Real indictment of progressive urban governance that the counties losing the most residents are mostly in blue states 😬😬😬"
California probably has the best climate in the USA, if you like warmth and sun without extremes. It is losing more people than anywhere else
I haven't denied that red states are growing. I have explained why: they have some of the lowest housing cost, on account of them being historically underpopulated, poor places as a result of slavery and segregation. What I have said is bullshit is people leaving blue states because of crime. The most dangerous states are almost all red.
California is a pretty safe state. Yes, it has great weather. That was a secondary factor I mentioned for New York and Illinois. The reason people are leaving California is because of incredibly high housing costs. Metro San Francisco makes London look cheap.
You are responding to my argument that you are cherry picking data by doing more cherry picking. Crime is worst in Republican states because of their absurd gun laws.
I'm not cherry picking, I agree it is complex. I have already said - see below - that both sides of America's bitter political divide are responsible for America's ills. Plus a lot of it is dumb bad luck (or malign actions by China). Also, Europe has major problems of its own, and lacks many of America's abiding virtues
But if I had to force some policies in America I would cancel Wokeness AND cancel the 2nd Amendment, thus angering both sides, equally
Wokeness, depending how you define it, is usually pretty stupid. But the claim that it is driving population changes is just nonsense. California is level in crime rate with Florida and better than Texas. New York is safer than all three. Chicago genuinely has a problem with spiralling crime, but a lot of that is driven by gangs bringing in guns fron Gary, Indiana. And loads of red states are really, really dangerous. Particularly Lousiana. (And if you are going to talk about blue New Orleans, then you need to talk about many of the growing metros in red states also being Dem governed.)
Also, of the 10 most criminal states, 8 are deeply red. People wanting to blame minorities and "wokeness" are either gullible stooges or deliberate racists cherry picking data.
Why, then, are American people fleeing blue Democrat states and cities, and flocking to Red Republican states and cities?
The demographic stats are stark and they do not lie. Texas, Tennessee and Florida are flourishing; New York, California, Illinois, and the like, are not
Because New York, California and Illinois are richer, wealthier places where living costs are a lot more expensive than in historically poor Texas, Tennessee and Florida. People are also flocking to Washington state and Colorado. In addition, New York and Illinois have miserable winters while Texas, Tennessee and Florida are in the sunbelt.
"Real indictment of progressive urban governance that the counties losing the most residents are mostly in blue states 😬😬😬"
California probably has the best climate in the USA, if you like warmth and sun without extremes. It is losing more people than anywhere else
I haven't denied that red states are growing. I have explained why: they have some of the lowest housing cost, on account of them being historically underpopulated, poor places as a result of slavery and segregation. What I have said is bullshit is people leaving blue states because of crime. The most dangerous states are almost all red.
California is a pretty safe state. Yes, it has great weather. That was a secondary factor I mentioned for New York and Illinois. The reason people are leaving California is because of incredibly high housing costs. Metro San Francisco makes London look cheap.
You are responding to my argument that you are cherry picking data by doing more cherry picking. Crime is worst in Republican states because of their absurd gun laws.
I'm not cherry picking, I agree it is complex. I have already said - see below - that both sides of America's bitter political divide are responsible for America's ills. Plus a lot of it is dumb bad luck (or malign actions by China). Also, Europe has major problems of its own, and lacks many of America's abiding virtues
But if I had to force some policies in America I would cancel Wokeness AND cancel the 2nd Amendment, thus angering both sides, equally
Wokeness, depending how you define it, is usually pretty stupid. But the claim that it is driving population changes is just nonsense. California is level in crime rate with Florida and better than Texas. New York is safer than all three. Chicago genuinely has a problem with spiralling crime, but a lot of that is driven by gangs bringing in guns fron Gary, Indiana. And loads of red states are really, really dangerous. Particularly Lousiana. (And if you are going to talk about blue New Orleans, then you need to talk about many of the growing metros in red states also being Dem governed.)
No, you're wrong on this part
"Wokeness, depending how you define it, is usually pretty stupid. But the claim that it is driving population changes is just nonsense"
Wokeness in education is driving American parents to Red States. This is a definite THING, and you are foolish to ignore it
'Look upon the CPTPP as a 'start-up' says Kemi Badenoch. A start up with which we already have free trade agreements (the exceptions being Brunei and Malaysia). The effect on our trade in the next ten years is said to be a negligible.008% or 8p per £100.
Imagine France leaving the EU and replacing it with Burkina Faso and you might understand why no one-kemi Badenoch -included can keep a straight face.
Also, of the 10 most criminal states, 8 are deeply red. People wanting to blame minorities and "wokeness" are either gullible stooges or deliberate racists cherry picking data.
Why, then, are American people fleeing blue Democrat states and cities, and flocking to Red Republican states and cities?
The demographic stats are stark and they do not lie. Texas, Tennessee and Florida are flourishing; New York, California, Illinois, and the like, are not
Because New York, California and Illinois are richer, wealthier places where living costs are a lot more expensive than in historically poor Texas, Tennessee and Florida. People are also flocking to Washington state and Colorado. In addition, New York and Illinois have miserable winters while Texas, Tennessee and Florida are in the sunbelt.
"Real indictment of progressive urban governance that the counties losing the most residents are mostly in blue states 😬😬😬"
California probably has the best climate in the USA, if you like warmth and sun without extremes. It is losing more people than anywhere else
I haven't denied that red states are growing. I have explained why: they have some of the lowest housing cost, on account of them being historically underpopulated, poor places as a result of slavery and segregation. What I have said is bullshit is people leaving blue states because of crime. The most dangerous states are almost all red.
California is a pretty safe state. Yes, it has great weather. That was a secondary factor I mentioned for New York and Illinois. The reason people are leaving California is because of incredibly high housing costs. Metro San Francisco makes London look cheap.
You are responding to my argument that you are cherry picking data by doing more cherry picking. Crime is worst in Republican states because of their absurd gun laws.
I'm not cherry picking, I agree it is complex. I have already said - see below - that both sides of America's bitter political divide are responsible for America's ills. Plus a lot of it is dumb bad luck (or malign actions by China). Also, Europe has major problems of its own, and lacks many of America's abiding virtues
But if I had to force some policies in America I would cancel Wokeness AND cancel the 2nd Amendment, thus angering both sides, equally
Wokeness, depending how you define it, is usually pretty stupid. But the claim that it is driving population changes is just nonsense. California is level in crime rate with Florida and better than Texas. New York is safer than all three. Chicago genuinely has a problem with spiralling crime, but a lot of that is driven by gangs bringing in guns fron Gary, Indiana. And loads of red states are really, really dangerous. Particularly Lousiana. (And if you are going to talk about blue New Orleans, then you need to talk about many of the growing metros in red states also being Dem governed.)
No, you're wrong on this part
"Wokeness, depending how you define it, is usually pretty stupid. But the claim that it is driving population changes is just nonsense"
Wokeness in education is driving American parents to Red States. This is a definite THING, and you are foolish to ignore it
If KS resigns after winning an election, the next leader will almost certainly be Bridget Phillipson or Rachel Reeves
Yes Phillipson is one to watch.
But I want Angela. I might vote Labour if she was leader.
Reasons? She has done well in her life from a difficult start, is passionate and confident enough to not try to change (e.g. her accent). Downsides for me is her utter hatred of Tories. She may mean the politicians, but how does that attract a life long Tory voter? Plus it’s divisive, and I prefer politicians who try to persuade, not divide.
I fear Foxy has been driven mad by blind Tory hatred. Where is the evidence that she would make a good Prime minister? Is she the one to fix the NHS?
I don't hate anyone. It is a principle that I live by. I have also expressed a positive opinion of Sunak and Hunt as two rare adults in the Tory room. Of note, both were second choice to Truss and Johnson, which does tell us a lot about the Tory selectors.
I think the most important thing in a leader is not academic qualifications, but rather a sound set of values and people skills. There are plenty of people who can do policy papers, but we have a major deficit in our politics of people who truly care to improve the lives of the poorest in society. Angela Rayner is one who does.
Rayner will forever be associated with her 'scum' comment. Her apology for which was belated, forced and half-hearted.
Oh, I get that some people don't like her, and will find any reason to vote against her.
She is far more of a threat to the established order of Oxbridge PPE chums of either party than anyone else in the front line of politics.
I would vote Lab under AR
That ship has sailed the Right Wing Ultras are in charge for at least a decade even if SKS loses
Also, of the 10 most criminal states, 8 are deeply red. People wanting to blame minorities and "wokeness" are either gullible stooges or deliberate racists cherry picking data.
Why, then, are American people fleeing blue Democrat states and cities, and flocking to Red Republican states and cities?
The demographic stats are stark and they do not lie. Texas, Tennessee and Florida are flourishing; New York, California, Illinois, and the like, are not
I can't see that Tennessee is doing well. Going by the metrics it seems to be in the bottom half for most and particularly bad for education and crime. Even the median income is lower than here. Its got fiscal stability though so what money it has is safe.
None of the states you mention break the bottom 25% for crime. Texas is 40th, Florida 45th and Tennessee is flourishing at 48th.
I'm talking about population movements
"The current metro area population of Nashville in 2023 is 1,315,000, a 1.62% increase from 2022. The metro area population of Nashville in 2022 was 1,294,000, a 1.73% increase from 2021. The metro area population of Nashville in 2021 was 1,272,000, a 1.84% increase from 2020."
"During the final year of the two-year span, from July 2021 to July 2022, California lost about 211,000 people, according to data from the state Department of Finance. Nearly half — 113,048 — were from Los Angeles County, the most populous of California's 58 counties."
LA has a better climate than Nashville. Both are cities. This is Woke, and drugs, at work
WillG - May I suggest that you learn about the "ecological fallacy". (As should anyone else who tries to draw conclusions about US individuals using state-level data.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_fallacy
If KS resigns after winning an election, the next leader will almost certainly be Bridget Phillipson or Rachel Reeves
Yes Phillipson is one to watch.
But I want Angela. I might vote Labour if she was leader.
Reasons? She has done well in her life from a difficult start, is passionate and confident enough to not try to change (e.g. her accent). Downsides for me is her utter hatred of Tories. She may mean the politicians, but how does that attract a life long Tory voter? Plus it’s divisive, and I prefer politicians who try to persuade, not divide.
I fear Foxy has been driven mad by blind Tory hatred. Where is the evidence that she would make a good Prime minister? Is she the one to fix the NHS?
I don't hate anyone. It is a principle that I live by. I have also expressed a positive opinion of Sunak and Hunt as two rare adults in the Tory room. Of note, both were second choice to Truss and Johnson, which does tell us a lot about the Tory selectors.
I think the most important thing in a leader is not academic qualifications, but rather a sound set of values and people skills. There are plenty of people who can do policy papers, but we have a major deficit in our politics of people who truly care to improve the lives of the poorest in society. Angela Rayner is one who does.
Rayner will forever be associated with her 'scum' comment. Her apology for which was belated, forced and half-hearted.
Oh, I get that some people don't like her, and will find any reason to vote against her.
She is far more of a threat to the established order of Oxbridge PPE chums of either party than anyone else in the front line of politics.
I would vote Lab under AR
That ship has sailed the Right Wing Ultras are in charge for at least a decade even if SKS loses
Now now, don't be despondent, look at how quickly Sir Keir moved things on despite how dominant the Left looked.
WillG - May I suggest that you learn about the "ecological fallacy". (As should anyone else who tries to draw conclusions about US individuals using state-level data.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_fallacy
The argument made was that people are fleeing Democratic states towards Republican ones because of woke state governance causing high crime. I was showing that to be bullshit. I don't know why you are pointing to individual data when governance happens at the state and municipal level.
'Look upon the CPTPP as a 'start-up' says Kemi Badenoch. A start up with which we already have free trade agreements (the exceptions being Brunei and Malaysia). The effect on our trade in the next ten years is said to be a negligible.008% or 8p per £100.
Imagine France leaving the EU and replacing it with Burkina Faso and you might understand why no one-kemi Badenoch -included can keep a straight face.
We also still have a free trade agreement with the EU, so no change there per your "all trade agreements are the same" logic.
Also, Malaysia is about 12 times richer than Burkina Faso. You might want to look at the data before making racist equivalencies between non-white countries.
However, Bob Seely, a Conservative MP on the foreign affairs select committee, said the White House had made a “foolish decision” and urged Mr Biden to rethink his schedule.
“It seems pretty remiss, and I’m tempted to say more fool him for not coming,” he said. “This is a once-in-a-lifetime event, and you would have thought he should come because he’s a head of state.
“If I was the President of the United States, I would come to the Coronation of the King of England – there’s no two ways about it. It just seems to be a foolish decision.”
Eisenhower didn't go to the late Queen's coronation. The Queen didn't go to Biden or Trump's or Obama's or Bush's inaugurations.
Biden did go to the Queen's funeral and then Prince Charles did go to Reagan and Bush's funeral.
However the convention is Presidents don't go to coronations, only other monarchs and heads of government of Commonwealth do and monarchs don't go to Presidential inaugurations.
Yes, the right wing went into a racist conspiracist frenzy with Obama's election. I remember the FEMA concentration camps. Of course, this was all enabled by the right wing extremist takeover of the Supreme Court.
Come on. Are you suggesting that Obama put his fingers in his ears as children were slaughtered under his presidency?
Guns, LTNs, 15 min neighbourhoods - it's all the same hysterical over-reaction to people trying to fix real problems that have real consequences for people. Politicians have a duty to ride it out.
That’s not an unexpected result. Given that Yousaf is even further left than Sturgeon, and given that he has snubbed all Forbes supporters, I would expect the SNP to suffer in rural seats. Howe, there could be a differential swing, and Labour could do less well than they hope in central Scotland seats.
Interesting to see the Tories up as well as Labour.
Quite possible for SNP parliamentary party at Westminster to be decimated even if they have highest voteshare - if Lab and Con concentrate their votes in their respective target areas. That's why resilience of Scots Tory vote is so ominous for Yousaf. It will be piling up in the areas where Labour are out of the running.
Agreed, and demoting the Transport brief from Cabinet will send out a very negative message to rural areas in particular, especially the North East, Highlands and Islands. Add in the SNP/SGreen Governments antipathy towards the North Sea Oil&Gas industry, the growing ferry crisis, putting dualling the A9/A96 on the back burner and DRS etc as well as putting Kate Forbes on the backbenches...
"CalMac, which earlier this month warned of a challenging two years due to its ageing fleet, has apologised to its customers.
It is having to redeploy ferries from their usual routes to cover other services.
But problems have affected CalMac services for a number of years due to breakdowns, a lack of spare vessels and delays to constructing new ferries.
Services to Islay, Arran, Coll and Tiree and the Small Isles are among those affected by changes announced by CalMac on Wednesday.
The service between Mallaig, Oban and Lochboisdale, in South Uist, is one of the worst hit. It is due to be cancelled for five weeks from 5 April.
Darren Taylor, chief executive of South Uist community company Stòras Uibhist, said the island's community was in a state of shock at the plan.
He said: "We have had ongoing problems for a very long time with CalMac but this is absolutely beyond the pale. It's outrageous."
Mr Taylor said the cancellation of the Lochboisdale service would come at the start of the tourist season, with the island's tourism industry still trying to recover from the Covid pandemic."
Also, of the 10 most criminal states, 8 are deeply red. People wanting to blame minorities and "wokeness" are either gullible stooges or deliberate racists cherry picking data.
Why, then, are American people fleeing blue Democrat states and cities, and flocking to Red Republican states and cities?
The demographic stats are stark and they do not lie. Texas, Tennessee and Florida are flourishing; New York, California, Illinois, and the like, are not
I can't see that Tennessee is doing well. Going by the metrics it seems to be in the bottom half for most and particularly bad for education and crime. Even the median income is lower than here. Its got fiscal stability though so what money it has is safe.
None of the states you mention break the bottom 25% for crime. Texas is 40th, Florida 45th and Tennessee is flourishing at 48th.
I'm talking about population movements
"The current metro area population of Nashville in 2023 is 1,315,000, a 1.62% increase from 2022. The metro area population of Nashville in 2022 was 1,294,000, a 1.73% increase from 2021. The metro area population of Nashville in 2021 was 1,272,000, a 1.84% increase from 2020."
"During the final year of the two-year span, from July 2021 to July 2022, California lost about 211,000 people, according to data from the state Department of Finance. Nearly half — 113,048 — were from Los Angeles County, the most populous of California's 58 counties."
LA has a better climate than Nashville. Both are cities. This is Woke, and drugs, at work
Labour's problem is simple - its position is not based on positivity i.e. people support Labour's policies, it is based on negativity i.e. relying on the unpopularity of the Tories to win it power by default.
The problem with that is that Labour's position is somewhat based on events outside their control i.e. the behaviour of the Government. FWIW, anecdotally - and in several different independent contexts - I have heard multiple people express the view that Sunak is competent and getting things done.
I wonder whether part of Starmer's problem is that he is being advised by people such as Campbell and Mandleson who are thinking about the next GE in the frame of 1997. The two contexts are likely to be very different.
Interesting. We happen to live in times when, because of reasons, there are very few distinctive, important and interesting policies to be had. Not only have we very obviously run out of money and the simpler ways of growing an economy, we have also run out, mostly, of hope. For this the failure of Boris is a big part. if his hope filled boosterism doesn't work, whose will?
This sets a picture very different from 1997, when a more competent government than this one was beaten out of side by genius, idealism, hope and 'Time for a change'.
Really and genuinely well done for inclusion of that 'of' there and not saying "because reasons'.
Quite.
However, I disagree with the post. The solutions to growing the economy are the same as they ever were - the state doing less, but better, and companies, individuals and families able to spend more of their own money, which they invariably deploy more sensibly than the state. It is a great pity that the failure of Kwasi's budget announcment (the actual budget did not fail because it wasn't implemented) is that is has allowed people either through ignorance or speciousness, to claim that the guiding principles of modern capitalism have been upended.
But it is good that he used 'of' - well done.
That's what caught my eye and there's nothing trivial about it either.
As for your 'people spending money more sensibly than the state' - I'm afraid this is autopilot right wing cliche along the lines of 'the most terrifying words in the English language, I'm from the government and I'm here to help'.
The plain & simple fact is, people do NOT spend money more wisely than the government. Fags, scratch cards, drugs of varying types, clothes that get thrown away, bad food, things they thought they'd like then find they don't, climate destroying transport options, etc etc etc; every single day there are countless millions of unwise unsensible poor quality financial transactions carried out in the personal sphere. Far more so than when the government is signing the cheques. The government at least has to have a care for the collective best interest in how they spend money. People? No. They suck at this sort of thing.
Depressing that this pile of utter twaddle got 7 likes, but looking at the culprits, hardly surprising either.
People make a huge amount of micro-decisions when left to spend their own money, a few of which include 'sin' recreations (that the Government piles massive taxes on), some of which are clothes that employ people working in the third world, and then cycle through the economy, providing further benefit to those on low incomes and the charitable sector. Then there are the transport options that you allege are 'climate destroying' (I'm assuming you don't drive) that allow people to see friends, relatives, gain new experiences, fall in love, educate their kids etc. It all leads to growth, prosperity, and has been responsible for lifting us out of a state of gnawing on turnips in huts, to our present state of ease and comfort.
The Government on the other hand, spends billions on going to war to find non-existent WMDs, spends tens of billions on police forces that no longer investigate whole swathes of crime, spends hundreds of billions on health services that don't return people to health, education services that leave people illiterate, porous borders, useless defence, etc. etc. It is a typical response of all authoritarians, left or right, to blame the riff raff with their 'fags' and their 'scratch cards' for the failure of their grand social experiments. What a thoroughly loathsome view of humanity.
The general problem with public sector spending is that the government are risk averse, and they have decision making processes that are subject to political interference. On the other side of the equation they can sometimes be more efficient through economies of scale and have an ability to borrow money at low rates of interest, so they can make things happen without relying on the vagaries of market forces. So there is no simple answer.
I think there absolutely is a simple answer. I have no objection to money for things being raised by taxation, but people should always be in control of the money that is spent on their behalf. They should get to decide which schools to send their kids to, and which hospitals to go to when sick. The funding should flow from their choices, making bad schools and hospitals go bust and great ones expand. They should be able to go to the sheriff if they're not getting any joy from the police service, and funding should flow from clear up rates achieved by both these competing services. This sort of thing is of course fought tooth and nail by the public sector, because the public sector is run for those who work in it, not for those it serves.
This is notable. The reaction to the Gwangju massacre in 1980 led to the democratisation of S Korea. The then regime's responsibility for it is still denied by significant numbers of those on the right.
Chun Woo-won apologizes to Gwangju victims, calls grandfather 'criminal' https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=348219 ...The younger Chun, 27, admitted to receiving inaccurate and distorted history education from his family in his childhood.
"Out of fear of suffering consequential damage, my family and I had looked away from the hideous crime we had committed," he admitted. He explained that as a child, he was taught that the democratic uprising had been a riot, and that his grandfather and family members were heroes and victims...
...Some of the bereaved family members burst into tears at Chun's apology and accepted it.
That’s not an unexpected result. Given that Yousaf is even further left than Sturgeon, and given that he has snubbed all Forbes supporters, I would expect the SNP to suffer in rural seats. Howe, there could be a differential swing, and Labour could do less well than they hope in central Scotland seats.
Interesting to see the Tories up as well as Labour.
Quite possible for SNP parliamentary party at Westminster to be decimated even if they have highest voteshare - if Lab and Con concentrate their votes in their respective target areas. That's why resilience of Scots Tory vote is so ominous for Yousaf. It will be piling up in the areas where Labour are out of the running.
Agreed, and demoting the Transport brief from Cabinet will send out a very negative message to rural areas in particular, especially the North East, Highlands and Islands. Add in the SNP/SGreen Governments antipathy towards the North Sea Oil&Gas industry, the growing ferry crisis, putting dualling the A9/A96 on the back burner and DRS etc as well as putting Kate Forbes on the backbenches...
"CalMac, which earlier this month warned of a challenging two years due to its ageing fleet, has apologised to its customers.
It is having to redeploy ferries from their usual routes to cover other services.
But problems have affected CalMac services for a number of years due to breakdowns, a lack of spare vessels and delays to constructing new ferries.
Services to Islay, Arran, Coll and Tiree and the Small Isles are among those affected by changes announced by CalMac on Wednesday.
The service between Mallaig, Oban and Lochboisdale, in South Uist, is one of the worst hit. It is due to be cancelled for five weeks from 5 April.
Darren Taylor, chief executive of South Uist community company Stòras Uibhist, said the island's community was in a state of shock at the plan.
He said: "We have had ongoing problems for a very long time with CalMac but this is absolutely beyond the pale. It's outrageous."
Mr Taylor said the cancellation of the Lochboisdale service would come at the start of the tourist season, with the island's tourism industry still trying to recover from the Covid pandemic."
The ferries affects very few people. The people posting about it here either have a nostalgic affection for them from previous lives there or holidays, or see them as a useful example of things they don't like about the SNP.
(That is not to dismiss the fraught position of many islanders, especially with the tourist season fast approaching).
Far more important is anything that impacts the central belt. 50% of the Scottish Cabinet went to Glasgow Uni, not UHI. They will be far more sensitive to voters there, and that is useful electorally.
Even stuff like the A96 and A9 doesn't affect enough marginal constituencies.
The fundamental problem California has is taxes: the sales tax is high, the property tax is high and the income tax is high.
Part of the problem is that properties are assessed at the last sale price for tax purposes. The consequence is that one of our friends, who lives in a massive house in Brentwood that was initially built in the 1950s, pays (and I'm not kidding here) 1/80th of what we pay.
This makes for a very inefficient property tax market, with newcomers signing up to enormous burdens. A $2m house, for example, will come with a $35,000-40,000 property tax assessment.
Comments
The key profiles would I think be
(1) The 30% who think Brexit was the right thing and wouldn't already vote Conservative. I suspect there aren't too many of these and in any case Starmer is also targeting this group.
(2) People who don't care about Brexit and think it normal to focus cost of living measures on those earning £100 000 per year
I'm sure those demographics exist, but it's it enough?
Notice that all the things he condemns are the daily solace and necessities of the poor and and just-getting-by: fags, scratch cards, bad clothes, cheap food
Some people have no choice but to buy bad clothes and crap food - lack of time and money. Obviously. Some people get very little joy out of life (due to being poor, badly educated, not the smartest): if a few fags and scratch cards make the pitiful human condition better for THEM, then that is actually money well spent, from their perspective
I could point at rich people who jet off to Bangkok for weeks of meaningless and indulgent pleasure, or who spend fruitless hours considering buying lovely houses in Richmond, and I could say, what's the fucking benefit of that? How have you made the world a better place? Shouldn't the government spend that money FOR YOU, so society improves?
And yet I have a feeling @kinabalu would object to the Treasury restricting his agreeable house-hunting near Kew
https://mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1641799804727574529
Opioids and guns.
If it's more by then we are in Big Trouble 😡😡😡
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-decline-and-fall-of-urban-america/
It's shocking to me that a country with so many obvious problems with drug addiction is still so powerful. In Rome we got chatting to some Americans on a guided tour and they seemed amazed that the friendly tour guide could live in central Rome, afford a really decent lifestyle and be able to travel to places like London where she is going to visit some of her friends in May and went to Tokyo just last month.
Dominion WINS part of its defamation claims against Fox News on summary judgment, and Fox LOSES their bid to dismiss the remainder of the claims, which will go to trial.
Story soon, @lawcrimenews
https://mobile.twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1641892955907674133
Though there is this catchy slogan.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-65141058
So, unless I am mistaken, given how Florida limits the restoration of felon voting rights, there is a real chance that Trump may be prohibited from voting for himself ...
https://mobile.twitter.com/RosenzweigP/status/1641899482458607622
Can @YBarddCwsc 's post from 20.53 be deleted, or amended to remove the personal info please?
It was unnecessary to mention the school my son attends - esp. as I don't think I've ever mentioned it. It is unpleasantly near doxxing. And yes, I'm aware doing this draws attention to it...
(This is not a call for the ban hammer; just a request that the post have the relevant details removed.)
🚨NEW Scottish Westminster VI for @TheScotsman
First Scottish VI since Yousaf elected leader
🎗️SNP 39% (-3)
🌹LAB 33% (+1)
🌳CON 19% (+2)
🔶LD 6% (=)
⬜️Other 4% (+1)
1,009 Scottish adults, 28-31 March
(change from 15-17 Feb)
🚨NEW Holyrood constituency VI for @TheScotsman
First Scottish VI since Yousaf elected SNP leader
🎗️SNP 39% (-4)
🌹LAB 32% (+2)
🌳CON 19% (+2)
🔶LD 7% (-1)
⬜️Other 3% (+1)
1,009 Scottish adults, 28-31 March
🚨NEW Holyrood list VI for @TheScotsman
First Scottish VI since Yousaf elected SNP leader
🎗️SNP 33% (+1)
🌹LAB 30% (+3)
🌳CON 18% (+2)
🌍Green 10% (-4)
🔶LD 7% (-2)
⬜️Other 2% (=)
1,009 Scottish adults, 28-31 March
(change from 15-17 Feb)
Some parts of urban America are quasi African, but with nice buildings, and NASTIER crime.
And Woke Dem policies in these Woke Dem cities will only make this worse. This starts to feel like the End of Rome
First IndyRef2 VI since Yousaf elected SNP leader
✅ Yes 45% (+1)
❎ No 47% (+1)
❓ Undec. 8% (-1)
w/o Undec.
✅ Yes 48% (-1)
❎ No 52% (+1)
1,009 Scottish adults, 28-31 March
(change from 15-17 Feb)
https://www.murdermap.co.uk/victims/murders-london-2023-total-how-many/
This is a bad recipe for the Natz
https://mobile.twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1641903231604252672/photo/1
Great time for the news to drop, Fox can spend time talking about itself rather than Trump - which given what this lawsuit reveals is something they wish they could do more of.
Actual malice still to prove though.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mediocrity-cuts-it-in-dark-new-dawn-m5vsc2dmv
The entirety of America is wracked with infernal problems, some come from the Left, some the Right, some are just weird bad luck - like the coincidence of Covidy working-from-home colliding with America's innate preference for suburbs and cars leading to dead cities and downtowns
The Right is responsible largely for the terrible gun problem. Both sides are, in different ways, responsible for the drug issue. The Left is responsible for the Wokeness that drives parents (and others) from crime ridden cities that boast schools obsessed with drag shows, while abandoning merit in favour of "equity"
Nor is the rest of the West immune to this decline. It is universal. America does it more flamboyantly and extravagantly
Joe Biden will not attend the King’s Coronation next month, The Telegraph understands.
The US president is “not expected” to join dozens of heads of state for the event on May 6, according to sources close to discussions, and will send a delegation in his place.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2023/03/31/joe-biden-invitation-coronation-king-charles-turn-down/
As you can see, the problem isn't urban areas. The problem is across America as a whole.
https://imgur.io/a/l41kt0W
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUCFDzzZLKI
However, Bob Seely, a Conservative MP on the foreign affairs select committee, said the White House had made a “foolish decision” and urged Mr Biden to rethink his schedule.
“It seems pretty remiss, and I’m tempted to say more fool him for not coming,” he said. “This is a once-in-a-lifetime event, and you would have thought he should come because he’s a head of state.
“If I was the President of the United States, I would come to the Coronation of the King of England – there’s no two ways about it. It just seems to be a foolish decision.”
I heard you call my name
Lying, on the bathroom floor
No one here to blame
There's a message I know can be found
I'm listening, I hear you, your sound
Speak to me, in a language
That I can understand
Tell me, that you're listening
Give me some kind of plan
Give me something, you'd be my drug of choice
You lead me, I follow, your voice
I will disappoint you
I will let you down
I need to know
You're here with me
Turn it all around
I'd be grateful, I'd follow you around
I'm listening, I'm here now, I'm found
The demographic stats are stark and they do not lie. Texas, Tennessee and Florida are flourishing; New York, California, Illinois, and the like, are not
We of course defer to the Italian government and have ceased offering ChatGPT in Italy (though we think we are following all privacy laws).
Italy is one of my favorite countries and I look forward to visiting again soon!
https://mobile.twitter.com/sama/status/1641897800236687360
The SNP job was to so run the country so that it was persuasive in deed and word that independence was possible and right for all Scots.
They have been unpersuasive, and run the country sub-optimally. And now failed to elect a star performer to do the job they exist for.
At least Forbes has the important job of looking after a baby.
I've got 16 days off.
I bloody need them.
Allerdale, Barrow-in-Furness, Carlisle, Copeland, Craven, Cumbria, Eden, Harrogate, Mendip, Richmondshire, Scarborough, Sedgemoor, Somerset, Somerset West & Taunton, South Lakeland, South Somerset, and Selby.
https://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/1352995/thread
Cumbria is going back to being Cumberland and Westmorland (and Furness).
"Real indictment of progressive urban governance that the counties losing the most residents are mostly in blue states 😬😬😬"
https://twitter.com/dmtrubman/status/1641297238801391616?s=20
"Real indictment of blue state governance that the counties adding the most residents are Sun Belt red states 😬😬😬"
https://twitter.com/dmtrubman/status/1641297238801391616?s=20
California probably has the best climate in the USA, if you like warmth and sun without extremes. It is losing more people than anywhere else
On the slow train (wreck that is local government)
Enjoy your break!
None of the states you mention break the bottom 25% for crime. Texas is 40th, Florida 45th and Tennessee is flourishing at 48th.
The most dangerous blue states are Maryland, Illinois and Delaware. Maryland and Delaware are growing.
The blue states most being left are California, New York and Illinois. Only Illinois is dangerous. California and New York are in the top third safest states.
Fox takes a nuanced approach to falsity.
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23736885-dominion-v-fox-summary-judgment
(The context is that they were trying to focus on their shows truthfully reporting about allegations being made, and that the content of the statements they republished was essentially immaterial).
"The current metro area population of Nashville in 2023 is 1,315,000, a 1.62% increase from 2022. The metro area population of Nashville in 2022 was 1,294,000, a 1.73% increase from 2021. The metro area population of Nashville in 2021 was 1,272,000, a 1.84% increase from 2020."
"During the final year of the two-year span, from July 2021 to July 2022, California lost about 211,000 people, according to data from the state Department of Finance. Nearly half — 113,048 — were from Los Angeles County, the most populous of California's 58 counties."
LA has a better climate than Nashville. Both are cities. This is Woke, and drugs, at work
As an example of the nonsense: Craven Council responsible for dealing with the rubbish in your bin. North Yorkshire Council responsible for dealing with the rubbish you take to the tip.
Some of the new ones are not perfect by any means, but it's still an improvement.
Government should plough ahead with more uniform local goverment reorganisation. They've done it before, and Whitehall and Westminster have no problems interferring when they feel it necessary (which is a lot), so pussyfooting about with haphazard and inconsistent devolution or whatever is just dumb.
Away with districts and empower parishes if you want real localism.
Not sure I'm confident that would benefit society much.
My guess might be Maryland and Delaware growing at the expense of DC? I would be surprised if Maryland was growing with people moving to Baltimore. But I haven't seej the stats.
California is a pretty safe state. Yes, it has great weather. That was a secondary factor I mentioned for New York and Illinois. The reason people are leaving California is because of incredibly high housing costs. Metro San Francisco makes London look cheap.
You are responding to my argument that you are cherry picking data by doing more cherry picking. Crime is worst in Republican states because of their absurd gun laws.
The AI translations are generally excellent at first glance - zero spelling errors, near-zero grammatical errors, and a decent shot at even arcane terminology. Where it goes wrong is in three specific areas which are quite hard to fix:
1. It's bad at consistency. My clients (usually the European Commission, but also other bodies involved in legal terminology) set enormous store by having the same words for the same thing. If clause 5 says it;s illegal to park on double yellow lines, clause 6 mustn't elaborate by talking about duplicate, dual or repeated yellow lines. I assume the problem is that the AI draws on thousands of similar but slightly different sentences, and just changing a word or two near the word in question produces a different result.
2. It's weak at choosing between alternative meanings according to context. Is a barrel part of a gun, or a container for beer? If there's a list of things without flowing sentences, it has a stab at it but, crucially, doesn't flag that it's not sure. A human translator in doubt will highlight the sentence as needing the client to check.
3. It struggles with sentence order. The Danish-English AI is pretty good, because the sentence structure is similar. German to English less so, and you get "the supplier informs the contractor" when it should be "the contractor informs the supplier".
Leon says it's better than Google Translate. Well, yes, but Google Translate is inadequate for any serious translation, though perfectly adequate to get the gist.
I think that demand for "good enough" translation will indeed plummet as AI takes over. But if it's something that just HAS to be right - laws, safety instructions, etc. - then I think you do need a human for now.
In 10 years? Who knows.
https://www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/deaths/2020.html
But if I had to force some policies in America I would cancel Wokeness AND cancel the 2nd Amendment, thus angering both sides, equally
LA, consistently around $1-$3m
https://www.zillow.com/los-angeles-ca/houses/?searchQueryState={"pagination":{},"usersSearchTerm":"Los Angeles, CA","mapBounds":{"west":-118.668176,"east":-118.155289,"south":33.703652,"north":34.337306},"regionSelection":[{"regionId":12447,"regionType":6}],"filterState":{"sort":{"value":"globalrelevanceex"},"ah":{"value":true},"beds":{"min":4},"tow":{"value":false},"mf":{"value":false},"con":{"value":false},"land":{"value":false},"apa":{"value":false},"manu":{"value":false},"apco":{"value":false},"sqft":{"min":2500,"max":3000}}}
Nashville, around $500k to $1m
https://www.zillow.com/nashville-tn/?searchQueryState={"pagination":{},"usersSearchTerm":"Nashville, TN","mapBounds":{"west":-87.054903,"east":-86.515588,"south":35.989226,"north":36.405496},"regionSelection":[{"regionId":6118,"regionType":6}],"filterState":{"sort":{"value":"globalrelevanceex"},"ah":{"value":true},"beds":{"min":4},"sqft":{"min":2500,"max":3500}}}
https://visitfranklin.com/
Franklin even has a walkable downtown
"Wokeness, depending how you define it, is usually pretty stupid. But the claim that it is driving population changes is just nonsense"
Wokeness in education is driving American parents to Red States. This is a definite THING, and you are foolish to ignore it
Imagine France leaving the EU and replacing it with Burkina Faso and you might understand why no one-kemi Badenoch -included can keep a straight face.
That ship has sailed the Right Wing Ultras are in charge for at least a decade even if SKS loses
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_California#Birth_data
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_fallacy
Here's a brief Pew report on crime in the US, which uses individual level data, to the extent possible: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/20/facts-about-crime-in-the-u-s/
"The eight years during which Barack Obama served as president were a boom time for the gun industry. Obama’s consistent and futile efforts to introduce new regulations restricting gun sales were whipped into rhetoric about imminent crackdowns on gun ownership — rhetoric that predated Obama’s election, much less his policy efforts."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/03/22/americans-spent-an-estimated-17-billion-dollars-on-ammunition-while-obama-was-president/
Also, Malaysia is about 12 times richer than Burkina Faso. You might want to look at the data before making racist equivalencies between non-white countries.
Biden did go to the Queen's funeral and then Prince Charles did go to Reagan and Bush's funeral.
However the convention is Presidents don't go to coronations, only other monarchs and heads of government of Commonwealth do and monarchs don't go to Presidential inaugurations.
Guns, LTNs, 15 min neighbourhoods - it's all the same hysterical over-reaction to people trying to fix real problems that have real consequences for people. Politicians have a duty to ride it out.
BBC - Anger grows at latest CalMac ferry disruption
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-65122952
"CalMac, which earlier this month warned of a challenging two years due to its ageing fleet, has apologised to its customers.
It is having to redeploy ferries from their usual routes to cover other services.
But problems have affected CalMac services for a number of years due to breakdowns, a lack of spare vessels and delays to constructing new ferries.
Services to Islay, Arran, Coll and Tiree and the Small Isles are among those affected by changes announced by CalMac on Wednesday.
The service between Mallaig, Oban and Lochboisdale, in South Uist, is one of the worst hit. It is due to be cancelled for five weeks from 5 April.
Darren Taylor, chief executive of South Uist community company Stòras Uibhist, said the island's community was in a state of shock at the plan.
He said: "We have had ongoing problems for a very long time with CalMac but this is absolutely beyond the pale. It's outrageous."
Mr Taylor said the cancellation of the Lochboisdale service would come at the start of the tourist season, with the island's tourism industry still trying to recover from the Covid pandemic."
The reaction to the Gwangju massacre in 1980 led to the democratisation of S Korea. The then regime's responsibility for it is still denied by significant numbers of those on the right.
Chun Woo-won apologizes to Gwangju victims, calls grandfather 'criminal'
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=348219
...The younger Chun, 27, admitted to receiving inaccurate and distorted history education from his family in his childhood.
"Out of fear of suffering consequential damage, my family and I had looked away from the hideous crime we had committed," he admitted. He explained that as a child, he was taught that the democratic uprising had been a riot, and that his grandfather and family members were heroes and victims...
...Some of the bereaved family members burst into tears at Chun's apology and accepted it.
U.S. election now looks certain to be a contest between a geriatric and an unhinged, know-nothing narcissist
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1641877255432331277?cxt=HHwWmoCz7cWqj8ktAAAA
(That is not to dismiss the fraught position of many islanders, especially with the tourist season fast approaching).
Far more important is anything that impacts the central belt. 50% of the Scottish Cabinet went to Glasgow Uni, not UHI. They will be far more sensitive to voters there, and that is useful electorally.
Even stuff like the A96 and A9 doesn't affect enough marginal constituencies.
Part of the problem is that properties are assessed at the last sale price for tax purposes. The consequence is that one of our friends, who lives in a massive house in Brentwood that was initially built in the 1950s, pays (and I'm not kidding here) 1/80th of what we pay.
This makes for a very inefficient property tax market, with newcomers signing up to enormous burdens. A $2m house, for example, will come with a $35,000-40,000 property tax assessment.