Categories
Could Sunak’s Tories really win a fifth term? – politicalbetting.com
Could Sunak’s Tories really win a fifth term? – politicalbetting.com
The above podcast came out yesterday and the polling in it looks interesting and should be of some concern to Labour particularly the comments in relation to Starmer. Already the blue attack machine is trying to get its teeth into him.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
But it's going to need something special from the Tories and/or a complete implosion by Sir Keir.
Trump will not be put in handcuffs for court date, lawyer says
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/31/trump-handcuffs-new-york-indictment-arraignment
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-65139406
"Might have to be delicate asking questions about this:
"Siwa is of special interest to anthropologists and sociologists because of its historical acceptance of male homosexuality and even rituals celebrating same-sex marriage – traditions that the Egyptian authorities have sought to repress, with increasing success, since the early twentieth century.
In 1937 the anthropologist Walter Cline wrote the first detailed ethnography of the Siwans in which he noted: "All normal Siwan men and boys practice sodomy...among themselves the natives are not ashamed of this; they talk about it as openly as they talk about love of women, and many if not most of their fights arise from homosexual competition....Prominent men lend their sons to each other. All Siwans know the matings which have taken place among their sheiks and their sheiks' sons....Most of the boys used in sodomy are between twelve and eighteen years of age.""
+++++
lol! I have this moment been reading the same. What an extraordinary tradition. Siwa is completely weird in multiple ways. "Settled since the 10th millennium BC". You what?
Possibly boasts the tomb of Alexander the Great who was, apparently, half in love with the place
I challenge one thing though. The previous state of the parties is almost irrelevant to what they will win at the next election. If Labour gets the polling numbers it doesn't matter how many seats it needs to gain. I would not say Labour can't win a majority because the mountain is too hard to climb, they have to gain too many seats. They will get a comfortable majority on numbers significantly less than what they are polling now.
Thanks to your hero Corbyn, BJO!
That's a Daily Mail colour article, right there
There are far more Tory supporters on the far left than there are Labour supporters on the far right, unfortunately.
The problem with that is that Labour's position is somewhat based on events outside their control i.e. the behaviour of the Government. FWIW, anecdotally - and in several different independent contexts - I have heard multiple people express the view that Sunak is competent and getting things done.
I wonder whether part of Starmer's problem is that he is being advised by people such as Campbell and Mandleson who are thinking about the next GE in the frame of 1997. The two contexts are likely to be very different.
Labour hold in Heath (Barking & Dagenham)
LibDem gain from Con in Westgate (Gloucester)
Plaid Cymru hold in Aethwy (Anglesey)
Labour’s vote share dropped quite a bit (-12%) in Heath, but then when you start from 74%, there’s only one way to go. Th addition of LibDem and Green candidates made little difference – 26 and 41 votes respectively.
The fall in Labour’s vote in Aethwy was only 5%, but probably a little more concerning, as they were challengers to Plaid Cymru, and both PC and the Cons advanced.
In Gloucester, the LibDems had a solid rise (13%), neatly mirroring the Con fall. The LibDem by election machine rolls on.
Good Week/Bad Week Index
LDm +65
PC +55
Lab +21
Con -69
Adjusted Seat Value
LDm +1.1
PC +0.9
Lab +0.4
Con -1.1
For more detail on how the GWBWI works, see here: https://drinkentire.wordpress.com/2023/02/07/the-good-week-bad-week-index/
The Conservatives have broadly kept last weeks increase and similarly Labour has retained its decrease.
That creates a few secondary issues:
- Labour get rid of leaders and policies too quickly as expectations are too high
- hardcore Labour supporters get frustrated that they have to win over centrists resulting in perpetual internal conflict
- as they are in power less often they get less say on electoral rules and regulations like boundaries and who can vote
"The Italian watchdog said that not only would it block OpenAI's chatbot but it would also investigate whether it complied with General Data Protection Regulation.
GDPR governs the way in which we can use, process and store personal data.
Dan Morgan, from cybersecurity ratings provider Security Scorecard said the ban shows the importance of regulatory compliance for companies operating in Europe.
"Businesses must prioritise the protection of personal data and comply with the stringent data protection regulations set by the EU - compliance with regulations is not an optional extra."
Fact is, I can easily see the EU, in a fit of bureaucratic meddling, and out of desire to show its "regulatory power" - especially over American tech - adopting this policy Europe-wide. The UK will not have to obey
10-20% chance.
EDIT: Only kidding!
2. If they did, and the UK didn’t, we’d be in a whole world of trouble in our services exports as we would be falling foul if GDPR. So more financial services and data analytics would be reshored to the continent.
To form a government with a majority, he reckoned, on UNS needs a 6 point lead, but with tactical voting could happen with a 1 point lead.
No, I have no idea either, but its an interesting indication of the ballpark, and I am keeping half an eye on his table in the article.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/the-next-general-election-will-be-labours-to-lose
I'm quite sure if a Tory equivalent were leading the party plenty of centrist Tories would have been just as unhelpful. But there isn't really a Tory equivalent of Corbyn. The ghost of Sir Nicholas Fairbairn, perhaps.
At least now we have the choice. A Brexit Benefit
The problem with the sort of Leftists we're talking about here is the very opposite of them being driven by anti-toryism rather than by something positive. If they were driven by that (like eg me) they'd put quibbles about the rightward drift of the party under Starmer aside in order to focus on what anti-tories want most of all - the tories sent packing into opposition.
Although TBF that's an improvement in some ways, Liz Truss couldn't even beat the wet lettuce.
All politics is relative. Labour is, for many natural Tories both morally more impressive, and closer - if not very close - to One nation Toryism than the current party. Politics being relative, Labour could wreck that merely by getting morally and politically worse while the Tories stayed the same.
And THAT will be the first big Brexit Benefit, with many more to follow
LAB 417 - 46.4%
CON: 145 - 28.5%
SNP: 36 - 3.6%
LDM: 28 - 9.0%
PLC: 4 - 0.6%
GRN: 1 (=) - 4.3%
RFM: 0 (=) - 5.7%
Others: 0 (=) - 1.6%
LAB Majority of 184.
Changes w/ GE2019.
https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
This is why Brexit is like having a baby. You cannot PREDICT the future
This sets a picture very different from 1997, when a more competent government than this one was beaten out of side by genius, idealism, hope and 'Time for a change'.
Where you're wrong: The electoral context is very similar indeed. A tory government vulnerable to Time For A Change after too long in office. Therefore a New Labour type electoral strategy, long on TFAC and short on specifics, is the correct one for delivering the GE win with minimal risk.
Well I won't be but all you PB Tories will be popping the Champagne corks.
It's an economic game changer. Cancel all prior prognoses, they don't apply
They've given OpenAI 20 days to "explain themselves"
Voters are this close, this close, to completely writing off the conservatives but while Rishi remains not out and at the crease there’s a flicker of a chance they opt to give the Tories one last go. As soon as he makes a single catastrophic blunder (as his 4 predecessors all did at least once) I think that flicker gets extinguished and the landslide is on.
Think others who got the benefit of the doubt for a while: Major until black Wednesday, Brown until he chickened out of an early election, or May until the 2017 campaign.
I voted for Lisa Nandy who said she wanted to break Corbyn as a man.
What I will never support is a man who has told Socialists to fuck off from the day after he was elected on a manifesto of uniting all wings of the Party which he has done the total opposite.
I think the red Tories on here underestimate the number of people who feel the same. I voted for Blair twice as did most on the left there are 000s of thousands who won't vote SKS who voted for Blair IMO.
I predict Labour on a lower overall turnout gets less than the 12.9m votes it got in 2017.
That's a huge stretch, shirley?
Apart from the fact that ChatGPT's not really an app, how about Twitter, WhatsApp (definitely and app, clue is in the title), Insta, FB, TikTok, Telegram, Spotify, Uber, etc, etc.... ?
Still 21 months and a 2.9% inflation rate to come.
"I'm sorry OpenAI, I can't do that."
She's definitely on the right. But she neither has Corbyn's history of rebellion nor Corbyn's attachment to dubious outfits like STWC. Suella Braverman's equivalent is more someone like, ooh, I don't know, Harriet Harman?
I haven't been given any policy-driven reason to vote Labour by SKS. That might change ....
I suspect you are right that Labour will get < 12.9 m votes.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/31/trade-unions-wellbeing-wales-westminster-starmer
"Whatever the future in Westminster brings, Wales is setting itself on a distinct pathway, one where fair work, wellbeing and forging positive relationships with trade unions are at the forefront. The question is: can the rest of the UK keep up?"
"One of the major difficulties for European startups is data regulation - startups prefer to operate in the US where there is much less uncertainty around what is and isn't possible to do with customer data. For example one of our clients operates in the UK and US, they have their servers in EU West-1, but to integrate with a customer profile builder tool they need to have all of their data in a US data centre because the company that does the profile doesn't want to touch customer data in the EU for fear of fines. For this company it's not such a big deal because they have the ability to replicate data in the US with AWS and because they don't have EU customers it's not a huge problem for them."
Quoting myself from less than two weeks ago re ChatGPT getting banned in Italy (and soon the EU).
This is why the EU will never really have tech startups and there is zero threat to the UKs leading role innovation economy in Europe.
Can we keep up with the dynamism and brilliance being forged by Mark Drakeford?
Hahahahaha
However, I disagree with the post. The solutions to growing the economy are the same as they ever were - the state doing less, but better, and companies, individuals and families able to spend more of their own money, which they invariably deploy more sensibly than the state. It is a great pity that the failure of Kwasi's budget announcment (the actual budget did not fail because it wasn't implemented) is that is has allowed people either through ignorance or speciousness, to claim that the guiding principles of modern capitalism have been upended.
But it is good that he used 'of' - well done.
But I heard it described that way in a TV show the other day, and also I read it in an article
I guess that you have to accept that:
1. ChatGPT is an "app" of sorts
and
2. That your metric for success is speed of acquiring users
In that sense the statement is true. ChatGPT came out on November 30 2022 and now, at the end of March 2023, exactly four months later, it has at least 100 million users, and the company that owns it is valued at tens of billions
Nothing like it has been seen before
For once, we can say: case closed. We have a Brexit Benefit
"AI chatbot blamed for Belgian man’s suicide"
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ai-chatbot-blamed-for-belgian-mans-suicide-zcjzlztcc
And yes, I don't expect them to be looking at the data privacy implications of the data they trawl. The diarrhoetic and unintelligent hype is enough for them. Do something, then ask for permission,
...
three-quarters of teachers said they spent too much time on paperwork, while two-thirds of senior leaders felt they were spending too much time responding to government policy changes
...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-65138300
Sounds like ydoethur is well out of it.
I'm not sure it's realised how far the Tory party has hollowed out, even in their strongholds. I live in Jeremy Hunt's constituency. He got 53% of the vote last time. Yet Conservative membership locally has diminished to fewer than 150 paid-up members, which is a fraction of both LibDem and Labour membership. They are struggling to find enough candidates - even paper candidates - to stand in every seat - and it's the first time that's been the case in the history of the constituency. If that's the position here, what can it be like somewhere like marginal Swindon?
But as always, GIGO rules. And these AI are using the Internet as input. And how much garbage is there on the Internet?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-65121438
Who can blame them, with crowds of literally tens of people all trying to get to Swansea every year? This could easily raise twelve quid, which could then be used to buy some sellotape
I can see the issue, but it's not obvious how it could ever be resolved.
A student has successfully appealed against a £60 parking fine by using a letter written by an artificial intelligence chatbot.
When Millie Houlton received the notice from York City Council she said she was tempted to pay rather than spend time compiling a response.
However, the 22-year-old asked ChatGPT to "please help me write a letter to the council, they gave me a parking ticket" and sent it off.
The authority withdrew the fine notice.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-65126772
She couldn't do that in Genoa.