Big winner from today is Rishi Sunak. Rebellion squashed. Boris threat neutralised. Keir Starmer embroiled in pensions hypocrisy row. Might well be some more bottles opened in Downing Street tonight."
What does PB think about Alastair Campbell saying Boris was lying about nearly dying from Covid?
It's a strange position for a lockdown hysteric to take because the subtext is that covid wasn't really that serious for someone of Johnson's age and health.
The striking thing is how much the Tory MPs managed to make Johnson squirm today.
Costa and Jenkin seemed rather hostile, Walker less so, but hasn't he been an earlier critic?
If Johnson doesn't get the spanking he deserves, I suspect the voters will, at least in the short term, hurt the Tories.
I know I am a Johnson cynic, as my PB off-topics demonstrate, but today Johnson was an utter disgrace.
Having listened to the whole hearing I simply cannot see any of the conservative mps backing Johnson
I expect a unanimous decision of guilty and a real possibility of a recall petition
if it was just a case of innocent or guilty I would 100% agree with you Big G. But still here the argument, as I tried to explain yesterday, these are not criminal proceedings, like a courtroom with a judge and jury. In criminal situation it’s unambiguous what duty calls for.
But this is not a criminal situation but a political one, where duty looks in more than one direction. There is more than enough cover enabling them to fulfil one duty with a guilty verdict, but fulfil their other duty with a not so severe sentence. That’s where the betting money lies tonight, to answer the headers question,
Nope. The incredulity of the committee at his answers. Beyond belief. Plus for the Tories on the committee it’s clear Johnson has destroyed the parties chances in 2024. If he had fronted up when first asked, none of this would have happened.
I see your nope and I double down on it 😇
They, or some of them, know the committee agree on misled, that is guilty, but also know the degree equals sanction of a five day suspension.
So what you have been watching is, in public, in front the camera, as harsh an interrogation as possible from Tories, knowing that fulfils their duty, in one of the directions they are looking, one of the duties they need to fulfil.
This is politics. The most absolute Byzantine bear pit politics you can get. So you ask yourself, what do they really want? You know what they are telling you, what they are demonstrating - but what do they really want?
What kind of penalty does Rishi want to give free vote on - 5 days or 10 days?
Answer is easy - 5. Because the jeopardy to Boris would create a split Tory Party vote, members v MPs, and Boris media supporters would turn on Rishi too.
If motion says 5 days, Sunak’s problems are instead with the opposition, there has to be a Tory whipping operation to defeat any amendments changing it to 10, because if it is amended, the free vote goes out of the window as they now have to whip against the motion itself, or the Tory members many MPs and press will say unfair etc. Whilst the opposition will claim unfair, lack of justice if it’s not 10 days.
There’s an awful lot going on here, and a lot of stake for Rishi too, not just Boris, and I would be shocked if a lot of the choreography isn’t already in place but left to chance.
The striking thing is how much the Tory MPs managed to make Johnson squirm today.
Costa and Jenkin seemed rather hostile, Walker less so, but hasn't he been an earlier critic?
If Johnson doesn't get the spanking he deserves, I suspect the voters will, at least in the short term, hurt the Tories.
I know I am a Johnson cynic, as my PB off-topics demonstrate, but today Johnson was an utter disgrace.
Having listened to the whole hearing I simply cannot see any of the conservative mps backing Johnson
I expect a unanimous decision of guilty and a real possibility of a recall petition
if it was just a case of innocent or guilty I would 100% agree with you Big G. But still here the argument, as I tried to explain yesterday, these are not criminal proceedings, like a courtroom with a judge and jury. In criminal situation it’s unambiguous what duty calls for.
But this is not a criminal situation but a political one, where duty looks in more than one direction. There is more than enough cover enabling them to fulfil one duty with a guilty verdict, but fulfil their other duty with a not so severe sentence. That’s where the betting money lies tonight, to answer the headers question,
Nope. The incredulity of the committee at his answers. Beyond belief. Plus for the Tories on the committee it’s clear Johnson has destroyed the parties chances in 2024. If he had fronted up when first asked, none of this would have happened.
What does PB think about Alastair Campbell saying Boris was lying about nearly dying from Covid?
I have been clear in my mind that Alastair Campbell is a disgrace of a man for 20 years or more and this is yet more evidence. Boris has showed he is not fit to be PM, but he was admitted to hospital and the medical staff confirmed what state he was in. Those are two separate things.
Suggesting he made that up is paranoid crap and insulting to a lot of NHS and civil servants who would have to be lying.
Fuck Alastair Fucking Campbell. ESPECIALLY for trying to throw Fucking Boris Johnson a fucking lifeline.
Opinium poll on Peston tonight has the Conservatives on 32% if Boris returned as leader compared to 31% now under Rishi.
Labour are unchanged on 43% against both
1% isn't much of a difference!
Yes and I suspect the 1% Boris put on would be offset by more tactical voting against him than Rishi would get.
It does show however that Rishi needs to get Boris supporters in his tent if he is to have a chance of winning the next general election or even just getting a hung parliament
Not at any price
Sunak has given the HOC a free vote on the decision and there are plenty of conservative mps who will support the verdict despite your desperate attempts at blackmail
It might not come to a free vote though, it’s a lot more complicated and dangerous than that.
Worrying news about whats happening to pilots now.
I’m being notified by passengers on a Southwest flight departing Las Vegas that the captain became incapacitated soon after takeoff this morning. He was removed from the flight deck and replaced by a non Southwest pilot who was commuting on that flight. This is now the fifth pilot incapacitation that I’m aware of in the past two weeks. I will post more details as they become available.
So on the face of it a further narrowing - but if you name the leaders (even the current ones) then it's not a standard poll so will not go into the Wiki list.
Opinium poll on Peston tonight has the Conservatives on 32% if Boris returned as leader compared to 31% now under Rishi.
Labour are unchanged on 43% against both
1% isn't much of a difference!
Yes and I suspect the 1% Boris put on would be offset by more tactical voting against him than Rishi would get.
It does show however that Rishi needs to get Boris supporters in his tent if he is to have a chance of winning the next general election or even just getting a hung parliament
Not at any price
Sunak has given the HOC a free vote on the decision and there are plenty of conservative mps who will support the verdict despite your desperate attempts at blackmail
It might not come to a free vote though, it’s a lot more complicated and dangerous than that.
What option does he have but a free vote?
Everybody but the Tories will surely vote to sanction (maybe not the DUP, even though they should have no reason to feel favourable to him). If he were to whip to reject a sanction recommendation it then only takes a modest rebellion to pass anyway. Yes, those looking to reject will have more legalistic arguments to rely on than when they were asked to save Paterson, but a modest rebellion looks very achievable in that situation. So Rishi would look impotent on top of trying to protect Boris from consequences of his actions. Boris and his supporters won't thank him for failing.
If he whips that they vote to uphold sanctions there's probably a bigger rebellion, but the sanctions would still pass only now 50+ MPs and loads of members are angry with him for betraying the Borissiah.
So free vote is the only option - he could even abstain or let it be know others should vote against or abstain if he wanted. No that would not save him from repercussions from members, but the bottom line is that if the committee recommends sanctions the votes are probably there regardless. There's not much point to Sunak pissing into the wind.
"face like thunder" > in that pic, Harmon actually has a rather pleasant facial expression. Indeed, a twinkle in the eye. Cause she was hard pressed NOT to break out laughing.
"agile as a cat' > really? the Boris that yours truly saw, was about as agile as a 300-lb sloth . . . on downers.
So on the face of it a further narrowing - but if you name the leaders (even the current ones) then it's not a standard poll so will not go into the Wiki list.
Talking of Wiki something is definitely happening on the Wiki graph with the Con and Lab trend lines...
Back on the SNP I see from wiki that in the end Forbes has managed 11 MSP and 4 MP endorsements, which was more than I had thought. Regan has managed 1 MP as an endorsement. Yousaf 33 MSPs and 18 MPs.
Probably too much to hope there is a Member/Representative disconnect which causes them ongoing ructions.
Opinium poll on Peston tonight has the Conservatives on 32% if Boris returned as leader compared to 31% now under Rishi.
Labour are unchanged on 43% against both
1% isn't much of a difference!
Yes and I suspect the 1% Boris put on would be offset by more tactical voting against him than Rishi would get.
It does show however that Rishi needs to get Boris supporters in his tent if he is to have a chance of winning the next general election or even just getting a hung parliament
Not at any price
Sunak has given the HOC a free vote on the decision and there are plenty of conservative mps who will support the verdict despite your desperate attempts at blackmail
It might not come to a free vote though, it’s a lot more complicated and dangerous than that.
What option does he have but a free vote?
Everybody but the Tories will surely vote to sanction (maybe not the DUP, even though they should have no reason to feel favourable to him). If he were to whip to reject a sanction recommendation it then only takes a modest rebellion to pass anyway. Yes, those looking to reject will have more legalistic arguments to rely on than when they were asked to save Paterson, but a modest rebellion looks very achievable in that situation. So Rishi would look impotent on top of trying to protect Boris from consequences of his actions. Boris and his supporters won't thank him for failing.
If he whips that they vote to uphold sanctions there's probably a bigger rebellion, but the sanctions would still pass only now 50+ MPs and loads of members are angry with him for betraying the Borissiah.
So free vote is the only option - he could even abstain or let it be know others should vote against or abstain if he wanted. No that would not save him from repercussions from members, but the bottom line is that if the committee recommends sanctions the votes are probably there regardless. There's not much point to Sunak pissing into the wind.
I know what you are saying, but my view is it depends what you are whipping on.
Sunak, like everybody, needs Boris to go over the cliff. But let’s not get complacent here, it’s still absolutely deadly for Sunak to be seen to be giving him the push as can lose Boris supporters, MPs, members, media, he really needs to win over. He can spark another outbreak of bitterness and factionalism.
What kind of penalty does Rishi want to give free vote on - 5 days or 10 days? Answer is easy - 5. Because the jeopardy to Boris of 10 would create a bigger split Tory Party vote, angry members v MPs, and Boris media supporters turn on Rishi too.
If motion says 5 days, Sunak’s problems are instead with the opposition, they want to present 5 days as leniency, Sunak Boris stitch up and letting the country down. there has to be a Tory whipping operation to defeat any amendments changing 5 to 10, because if it is amended, the free vote goes out of the window as they now have to whip against the motion itself, or the Tory members many MPs and press will say unfair, bitterness etc. Whilst the opposition will claim unfair, lack of justice if it’s not 10 days.
There’s an awful lot going on here, and a lot of stake for Rishi too, not just Boris
My prediction. The sentence is 5 day suspension, and everything I have just described, all that jeopardy for Sunak, comes into play.
Opinium poll on Peston tonight has the Conservatives on 32% if Boris returned as leader compared to 31% now under Rishi.
Labour are unchanged on 43% against both
1% isn't much of a difference!
Yes and I suspect the 1% Boris put on would be offset by more tactical voting against him than Rishi would get.
It does show however that Rishi needs to get Boris supporters in his tent if he is to have a chance of winning the next general election or even just getting a hung parliament
Not at any price
Sunak has given the HOC a free vote on the decision and there are plenty of conservative mps who will support the verdict despite your desperate attempts at blackmail
It might not come to a free vote though, it’s a lot more complicated and dangerous than that.
What option does he have but a free vote?
Everybody but the Tories will surely vote to sanction (maybe not the DUP, even though they should have no reason to feel favourable to him). If he were to whip to reject a sanction recommendation it then only takes a modest rebellion to pass anyway. Yes, those looking to reject will have more legalistic arguments to rely on than when they were asked to save Paterson, but a modest rebellion looks very achievable in that situation. So Rishi would look impotent on top of trying to protect Boris from consequences of his actions. Boris and his supporters won't thank him for failing.
If he whips that they vote to uphold sanctions there's probably a bigger rebellion, but the sanctions would still pass only now 50+ MPs and loads of members are angry with him for betraying the Borissiah.
So free vote is the only option - he could even abstain or let it be know others should vote against or abstain if he wanted. No that would not save him from repercussions from members, but the bottom line is that if the committee recommends sanctions the votes are probably there regardless. There's not much point to Sunak pissing into the wind.
I know what you are saying, but my view is it depends what you are whipping on.
Sunak, like everybody, needs Boris to go over the cliff. But let’s not get complacent here, it’s still absolutely deadly for Sunak to be seen to be giving him the push as can lose Boris supporters, MPs, members, media, he really needs to win over. He can spark another outbreak of bitterness and factionalism.
What kind of penalty does Rishi want to give free vote on - 5 days or 10 days? Answer is easy - 5. Because the jeopardy to Boris of 10 would create a bigger split Tory Party vote, angry members v MPs, and Boris media supporters turn on Rishi too.
If motion says 5 days, Sunak’s problems are instead with the opposition, they want to present 5 days as leniency, Sunak Boris stitch up and letting the country down. there has to be a Tory whipping operation to defeat any amendments changing 5 to 10, because if it is amended, the free vote goes out of the window as they now have to whip against the motion itself, or the Tory members many MPs and press will say unfair, bitterness etc. Whilst the opposition will claim unfair, lack of justice if it’s not 10 days.
There’s an awful lot going on here, and a lot of stake for Rishi too, not just Boris
My prediction. The sentence is 5 day suspension, and everything I have just described, all that jeopardy for Sunak, comes into play.
If the Committee recommends 5 days I think Sunak is pretty safe. Sure, the opposition will be less happy with the severity (I don't actually know if they can amend to just change the days, but if they can reject possibly they can do that), and they might try to use the sight of Tories voting against an amendment negatively, and get some media attention - but at the end of the day if that is what the Committee recommends then Sunak has a very easy response to stick to. He's not seeking to defend Boris, he's defending the process!
I can’t see the committee finding he deliberately misled Parliament. That intent is almost impossible to prove given the evidence we’ve seen so far .
I would be shocked if the committee went down that road , even though the vast majority of the public think he’s a serial liar the committee have to look like they’re following the evidence .
The Tory members also would feel very uneasy in delivering something that would likely cause a major rupture in the party .
A verdict of Johnson misled parliament recklessly would be the likely outcome and any observer who isn’t part of the Bozo Cult would think that’s a fair outcome .
I don’t see a suspension of length that could trigger a recall petition .
I think the reckless aspect of his behaviour would still effectively finish off his political career .
Agree - even Ian Dunt thinks "reckless" is as far as the evidence clearly takes them, proof of intent more difficult, unless theres a communication along the lines of "OK, we broke the rules, how do we spin it?":
Fwiw, I think it's pretty much guaranteed the committee finds against Johnson. At best they'll find he recklessly misled the Commons. At worst that he did so wilfully. There's a strong basis for the latter, but intent is always hard to demonstrate so former more likely....
Costa's questioning provides the spine of the argument: even if you thought these gatherings were legitimate, which is nearly impossible to believe, you had a duty to secure reliable legal advice for your assurances to the Commons. You did not. That was reckless.
Not the first time was have seen this phenomena is it? PBs answer to crop circles.
I think it’s some sort of cocoa time Ayahuasca ritual Boba does, pastes this in a haze, by morning forgotten all about it. Even oblivious to what they are doing 💁♀️
So on the face of it a further narrowing - but if you name the leaders (even the current ones) then it's not a standard poll so will not go into the Wiki list.
Thanks. The Tories will be very happy if they can get the polls to something like a 42-32 situation with 12 months to go before the election. A 5% swingback isn't that difficult in the approach to an election.
I can’t see the committee finding he deliberately misled Parliament. That intent is almost impossible to prove given the evidence we’ve seen so far .
I would be shocked if the committee went down that road , even though the vast majority of the public think he’s a serial liar the committee have to look like they’re following the evidence .
The Tory members also would feel very uneasy in delivering something that would likely cause a major rupture in the party .
A verdict of Johnson misled parliament recklessly would be the likely outcome and any observer who isn’t part of the Bozo Cult would think that’s a fair outcome .
I don’t see a suspension of length that could trigger a recall petition .
I think the reckless aspect of his behaviour would still effectively finish off his political career .
Agree - even Ian Dunt thinks "reckless" is as far as the evidence clearly takes them, proof of intent more difficult, unless theres a communication along the lines of "OK, we broke the rules, how do we spin it?":
Fwiw, I think it's pretty much guaranteed the committee finds against Johnson. At best they'll find he recklessly misled the Commons. At worst that he did so wilfully. There's a strong basis for the latter, but intent is always hard to demonstrate so former more likely....
Costa's questioning provides the spine of the argument: even if you thought these gatherings were legitimate, which is nearly impossible to believe, you had a duty to secure reliable legal advice for your assurances to the Commons. You did not. That was reckless.
Dunt does make this point, which I partially agree with in that I think his playing to his base by accusing them will bolster their resolve to find against him to some degree, but I think they could easily still regard a sub threshold sanction as sufficiently hard, given it would be a pretty remarkable event for a former PM. The only question now is whether they recommend a stern enough punishment to potentially trigger a by-election. In this I think Johnson's attempt to discredit the committee actually work against him by encouraging them to take a hard stand against him.
Not the first time was have seen this phenomena is it? PBs answer to crop circles.
I think it’s some sort of cocoa time Ayahuasca ritual Boba does, pastes this in a haze, by morning forgotten all about it. Even oblivious to what they are doing 💁♀️
Opinium poll on Peston tonight has the Conservatives on 32% if Boris returned as leader compared to 31% now under Rishi.
Labour are unchanged on 43% against both
1% isn't much of a difference!
Yes and I suspect the 1% Boris put on would be offset by more tactical voting against him than Rishi would get.
It does show however that Rishi needs to get Boris supporters in his tent if he is to have a chance of winning the next general election or even just getting a hung parliament
Not at any price
Sunak has given the HOC a free vote on the decision and there are plenty of conservative mps who will support the verdict despite your desperate attempts at blackmail
It might not come to a free vote though, it’s a lot more complicated and dangerous than that.
What option does he have but a free vote?
Everybody but the Tories will surely vote to sanction (maybe not the DUP, even though they should have no reason to feel favourable to him). If he were to whip to reject a sanction recommendation it then only takes a modest rebellion to pass anyway. Yes, those looking to reject will have more legalistic arguments to rely on than when they were asked to save Paterson, but a modest rebellion looks very achievable in that situation. So Rishi would look impotent on top of trying to protect Boris from consequences of his actions. Boris and his supporters won't thank him for failing.
If he whips that they vote to uphold sanctions there's probably a bigger rebellion, but the sanctions would still pass only now 50+ MPs and loads of members are angry with him for betraying the Borissiah.
So free vote is the only option - he could even abstain or let it be know others should vote against or abstain if he wanted. No that would not save him from repercussions from members, but the bottom line is that if the committee recommends sanctions the votes are probably there regardless. There's not much point to Sunak pissing into the wind.
I know what you are saying, but my view is it depends what you are whipping on.
Sunak, like everybody, needs Boris to go over the cliff. But let’s not get complacent here, it’s still absolutely deadly for Sunak to be seen to be giving him the push as can lose Boris supporters, MPs, members, media, he really needs to win over. He can spark another outbreak of bitterness and factionalism.
What kind of penalty does Rishi want to give free vote on - 5 days or 10 days? Answer is easy - 5. Because the jeopardy to Boris of 10 would create a bigger split Tory Party vote, angry members v MPs, and Boris media supporters turn on Rishi too.
If motion says 5 days, Sunak’s problems are instead with the opposition, they want to present 5 days as leniency, Sunak Boris stitch up and letting the country down. there has to be a Tory whipping operation to defeat any amendments changing 5 to 10, because if it is amended, the free vote goes out of the window as they now have to whip against the motion itself, or the Tory members many MPs and press will say unfair, bitterness etc. Whilst the opposition will claim unfair, lack of justice if it’s not 10 days.
There’s an awful lot going on here, and a lot of stake for Rishi too, not just Boris
My prediction. The sentence is 5 day suspension, and everything I have just described, all that jeopardy for Sunak, comes into play.
If the Committee recommends 5 days I think Sunak is pretty safe. Sure, the opposition will be less happy with the severity (I don't actually know if they can amend to just change the days, but if they can reject possibly they can do that), and they might try to use the sight of Tories voting against an amendment negatively, and get some media attention - but at the end of the day if that is what the Committee recommends then Sunak has a very easy response to stick to. He's not seeking to defend Boris, he's defending the process!
I think "standing up for the (Labour chaired) Committee" rather than "playing Party politics, like the opposition" is a perfectly easy sell - whipped vote on holding the Committee line, free vote on its conclusion is perfectly reasonable and would be seen as such. Unless SKS does not believe in due process.......
Not the first time was have seen this phenomena is it? PBs answer to crop circles.
I think it’s some sort of cocoa time Ayahuasca ritual Boba does, pastes this in a haze, by morning forgotten all about it. Even oblivious to what they are doing 💁♀️
Those of us that have been on PB long enough have all been there but I usually restrict my nonsensical, "hazy" late night posts to be forgotten about the next morning to Saturday nights...
Opinium poll on Peston tonight has the Conservatives on 32% if Boris returned as leader compared to 31% now under Rishi.
Labour are unchanged on 43% against both
1% isn't much of a difference!
Yes and I suspect the 1% Boris put on would be offset by more tactical voting against him than Rishi would get.
It does show however that Rishi needs to get Boris supporters in his tent if he is to have a chance of winning the next general election or even just getting a hung parliament
Not at any price
Sunak has given the HOC a free vote on the decision and there are plenty of conservative mps who will support the verdict despite your desperate attempts at blackmail
It might not come to a free vote though, it’s a lot more complicated and dangerous than that.
What option does he have but a free vote?
Everybody but the Tories will surely vote to sanction (maybe not the DUP, even though they should have no reason to feel favourable to him). If he were to whip to reject a sanction recommendation it then only takes a modest rebellion to pass anyway. Yes, those looking to reject will have more legalistic arguments to rely on than when they were asked to save Paterson, but a modest rebellion looks very achievable in that situation. So Rishi would look impotent on top of trying to protect Boris from consequences of his actions. Boris and his supporters won't thank him for failing.
If he whips that they vote to uphold sanctions there's probably a bigger rebellion, but the sanctions would still pass only now 50+ MPs and loads of members are angry with him for betraying the Borissiah.
So free vote is the only option - he could even abstain or let it be know others should vote against or abstain if he wanted. No that would not save him from repercussions from members, but the bottom line is that if the committee recommends sanctions the votes are probably there regardless. There's not much point to Sunak pissing into the wind.
I know what you are saying, but my view is it depends what you are whipping on.
Sunak, like everybody, needs Boris to go over the cliff. But let’s not get complacent here, it’s still absolutely deadly for Sunak to be seen to be giving him the push as can lose Boris supporters, MPs, members, media, he really needs to win over. He can spark another outbreak of bitterness and factionalism.
What kind of penalty does Rishi want to give free vote on - 5 days or 10 days? Answer is easy - 5. Because the jeopardy to Boris of 10 would create a bigger split Tory Party vote, angry members v MPs, and Boris media supporters turn on Rishi too.
If motion says 5 days, Sunak’s problems are instead with the opposition, they want to present 5 days as leniency, Sunak Boris stitch up and letting the country down. there has to be a Tory whipping operation to defeat any amendments changing 5 to 10, because if it is amended, the free vote goes out of the window as they now have to whip against the motion itself, or the Tory members many MPs and press will say unfair, bitterness etc. Whilst the opposition will claim unfair, lack of justice if it’s not 10 days.
There’s an awful lot going on here, and a lot of stake for Rishi too, not just Boris
My prediction. The sentence is 5 day suspension, and everything I have just described, all that jeopardy for Sunak, comes into play.
If the Committee recommends 5 days I think Sunak is pretty safe. Sure, the opposition will be less happy with the severity (I don't actually know if they can amend to just change the days, but if they can reject possibly they can do that), and they might try to use the sight of Tories voting against an amendment negatively, and get some media attention - but at the end of the day if that is what the Committee recommends then Sunak has a very easy response to stick to. He's not seeking to defend Boris, he's defending the process!
I agree with you. We are in agreement. 5 days Rishi will be happy to free vote on. It comes with opposition making a bit of short term point scoring, short term as the sentence is nothing to do with Rishi it recommendation of the committee, so this is the best case scenario for Rishi.
If it starts going in any other directions, it can still escalate into bigger problems for Rishi.
I’m half guessing the motion can be amended, half thinking that’s what they tried to do to Patterson’s?
If it can be, opposition will certainly try, then it becomes a bit more of a messy and hazardous session for Rishi and his business managers.
ANALYSIS: No smoking gun as both sides stick to their guns. Questioning made it clear cttee members believed breaches obvious & incredulous that BJ argued it really was not. Will take weeks to decide outcome, and it cld provoke ugly stand-off for BJ (& PM)
Not the first time was have seen this phenomena is it? PBs answer to crop circles.
I think it’s some sort of cocoa time Ayahuasca ritual Boba does, pastes this in a haze, by morning forgotten all about it. Even oblivious to what they are doing 💁♀️
Those of us that have been on PB long enough have all been there but I usually restrict my nonsensical, "hazy" late night posts to be forgotten about the next morning to Saturday nights...
Not the first time was have seen this phenomena is it? PBs answer to crop circles.
I think it’s some sort of cocoa time Ayahuasca ritual Boba does, pastes this in a haze, by morning forgotten all about it. Even oblivious to what they are doing 💁♀️
T S
R S
U
Yes.
A pretty insidious bout of it tonight. 🤔
Probably making perfect sense of Scriabins later orchestral works whilst simultaneously posting.
Not the first time was have seen this phenomena is it? PBs answer to crop circles.
I think it’s some sort of cocoa time Ayahuasca ritual Boba does, pastes this in a haze, by morning forgotten all about it. Even oblivious to what they are doing 💁♀️
T S
R S
U
Yes.
A pretty insidious bout of it tonight. 🤔
Probably making perfect sense of Scriabins later orchestral works whilst simultaneously posting.
Whilst Rachel Reeves gets an advance of, wait for it, £8,200.
"Wednesday's update to the MPs' register of interests also included another £527,000 in speaking fees for Boris Johnson from the first two weeks of March.
The former prime minister received £261,596 from London-based consultants Brand Finance PLC and £266,031 from American law firm Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check.
Some £369,605 of that total has been deducted from a £2.5 million advance the former prime minister received from speaking agency Harry Walker Agency in January...........
Rachel Reeves, the Shadow chancellor, has received an advance of £8,200 from Hodder and Stoughton for her book on "The Women Who Made Modern Economics"."
Not the first time was have seen this phenomena is it? PBs answer to crop circles.
I think it’s some sort of cocoa time Ayahuasca ritual Boba does, pastes this in a haze, by morning forgotten all about it. Even oblivious to what they are doing 💁♀️
Those of us that have been on PB long enough have all been there but I usually restrict my nonsensical, "hazy" late night posts to be forgotten about the next morning to Saturday nights...
Some will conclude that, for all his dissembling and obfuscation, what happened in Downing Street is hardly a hanging offence. Then you remember that, as all the shenanigans were going on at the heart of the Johnson government, plain folk were unable to attend the funerals of loved ones or visit them in care homes. While a woman was handcuffed for queuing for a coffee and pensioners were fined for eating a bag of chips in a laundrette.
American political journalists I know are in awe of Britain’s emphasis on politicians telling parliament the truth. We don’t have the same rules for Congress, they say. So perhaps we should celebrate a part of our constitution that still works and engenders the admiration of other democracies.
As for Boris Johnson, a brilliant but flawed politician, perhaps the only realistic conclusion is the one that has been a hallmark of his career time and again: he brought it on himself.
His defence is essentially that he is an idiot. An idiot who did not understand the rules he wrote. “It wasn’t obvious to me.” It was the media’s fault. His advisers’ fault. Sue Gray’s fault. The salad’s fault. Harriet Harman’s Twitter account’s fault.
That the committee kept their exasperation under control is admirable. After leaving politics they could hire themselves out to explain to recalcitrant toddlers why they need to put their coats on.
Whatever the committee decides to do next, though, doesn’t matter. Johnson might get suspended from the Commons, he might fight a by-election he might lose. Whatever. That’s a sideshow.
The thing that signalled that it’s over for Johnson came at just after 2.20pm on March 22, 2023, when just 22 Tories joined him in voting against Rishi Sunak’s attempt to clear up the mess he left in Northern Ireland. It’s a sign that most Conservatives, like the public, have already left him. And he didn’t even get to raise a glass and deliver a few words to say goodbye.
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=347640 ...And during the opening ceremony of the exhibition at the gallery last month, the 79-year-old, without fail, presented his signature performance. He started the routine by doing freehand exercises and eventually stripped off until he was left with just a shower cap, swimming trunks and a pair of goggles.
"My performance lacks substance!" he shouted. "Be gone, substance! Let only the surface remain!"..
Qatar world record bid for Man Utd and is apparently the best bid
No doubt every single Man Utd fan, indeed football fan, club and body, who came out in vocal opposition to the takeover of Newcastle by the Saudis will be equally vociferous in their opposition to this bid.
The striking thing is how much the Tory MPs managed to make Johnson squirm today.
They will rap him on the knuckles but they won't vote to suspend him for fear of deselection by their local Conservative Associations
If Johnson is not properly censured there will be a national outrage. I am not sure you understand this.
There will be a national outrage from people not voting Conservative or RefUK but Tory MPs don't care about them as they have near zero chance of voting Conservative at the next general election anyway and they don't form the membership of their local Conservative Association who will decide whether or not to reselect them
There will be national rage from this conservative supporter, and your descent into attempts of blackmail just affirms you are still very much in Johnson's camp
You voted Blair in 1997 and 2001 and have wavered away from the Conservatives pre Rishi anyway. The Conservatives would lose more votes to RefUK enabling a recall of Boris than they would lose to LAB or the LDs not doing so. At most a few days to a week suspension maximum
I'm not sure I agree, but you do highlight Sunak's dilemma. Part of the improvement in Conservative ratings has come about because Sunak has managed a neat triangulation of pragmatists and the Farage-curious. For every bit of sensible right-wing government (Windsor, for example) there has been a loudly-tossed bit of red meat to keep the less sensible on board (we will send to boat people somewhere, even if nowhere wants them). It's a good trick if you can do it, but it's going to be hard to keep it up until the election.
There is a risk of a Boris-fan backlash if he ceases to be an MP. But both his antics before the committee and the derisory ERG vote on Windsor make BoJo look less dangerous now than this morning.
About right. But, IMHO, the One Nation Tories now lost to the Cons will stay lost as long as meaningless, immoral and illegal nostrums are presented to us as policy. Sunak should be brave.
The number of so called 'One Nation Tories' who are not already still voting Tory and would switch from Labour or the LDs to the Conservatives if Boris was suspended for 10 days or more, or who would defect from the Tories if he was not can be counted on one hand.
The number of current Conservative voters and RefUK voters Rishi needs to win back however who would vote RefUK or stay home at the next general election if Boris was suspended for 10 days or more enabling a recall is much greater than those in the first paragraph
This shouldn’t be driven by electoral advantage but by what is right or wrong.
On his performance yesterday a ten day suspension is merited. They should sanction based on the evidence not party politics.
Oh she did. The most successful journalists lie for money. There are a disproportionate amount of them at the top of politics. Particularly, but not exclusively in the Tory Party.
Happily we don't need to worry about these so-called journalists printing their lies. Simply hire Tory MPs and platform them. To avoid the bias of having people with other opinions just ensure that the presenter and their guests are Tory MPs.
And when I say Tory MPs I don't mean red so-called Tories like Sir Bernard Jenkin. I mean proper intellectual heavyweights. Like Lee Anderson interviewing Scott Benton for detailed analysis of how inflation is really a global socialist plot.
Some will conclude that, for all his dissembling and obfuscation, what happened in Downing Street is hardly a hanging offence. Then you remember that, as all the shenanigans were going on at the heart of the Johnson government, plain folk were unable to attend the funerals of loved ones or visit them in care homes. While a woman was handcuffed for queuing for a coffee and pensioners were fined for eating a bag of chips in a laundrette.
American political journalists I know are in awe of Britain’s emphasis on politicians telling parliament the truth. We don’t have the same rules for Congress, they say. So perhaps we should celebrate a part of our constitution that still works and engenders the admiration of other democracies.
As for Boris Johnson, a brilliant but flawed politician, perhaps the only realistic conclusion is the one that has been a hallmark of his career time and again: he brought it on himself.
The most damning thing is it wasn't just plain folk. The Queen observed the rules at her husband's funeral. Johnson couldn't be bothered not to get drunk with his colleagues in his workplace.
Comments
Big winner from today is Rishi Sunak. Rebellion squashed. Boris threat neutralised. Keir Starmer embroiled in pensions hypocrisy row. Might well be some more bottles opened in Downing Street tonight."
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1638593240960999424
They, or some of them, know the committee agree on misled, that is guilty, but also know the degree equals sanction of a five day suspension.
So what you have been watching is, in public, in front the camera, as harsh an interrogation as possible from Tories, knowing that fulfils their duty, in one of the directions they are looking, one of the duties they need to fulfil.
This is politics. The most absolute Byzantine bear pit politics you can get. So you ask yourself, what do they really want? You know what they are telling you, what they are demonstrating - but what do they really want?
What kind of penalty does Rishi want to give free vote on - 5 days or 10 days?
Answer is easy - 5. Because the jeopardy to Boris would create a split Tory Party vote, members v MPs, and Boris media supporters would turn on Rishi too.
If motion says 5 days, Sunak’s problems are instead with the opposition, there has to be a Tory whipping operation to defeat any amendments changing it to 10, because if it is amended, the free vote goes out of the window as they now have to whip against the motion itself, or the Tory members many MPs and press will say unfair etc. Whilst the opposition will claim unfair, lack of justice if it’s not 10 days.
There’s an awful lot going on here, and a lot of stake for Rishi too, not just Boris, and I would be shocked if a lot of the choreography isn’t already in place but left to chance.
So on the face of it a further narrowing - but if you name the leaders (even the current ones) then it's not a standard poll so will not go into the Wiki list.
Everybody but the Tories will surely vote to sanction (maybe not the DUP, even though they should have no reason to feel favourable to him). If he were to whip to reject a sanction recommendation it then only takes a modest rebellion to pass anyway. Yes, those looking to reject will have more legalistic arguments to rely on than when they were asked to save Paterson, but a modest rebellion looks very achievable in that situation. So Rishi would look impotent on top of trying to protect Boris from consequences of his actions. Boris and his supporters won't thank him for failing.
If he whips that they vote to uphold sanctions there's probably a bigger rebellion, but the sanctions would still pass only now 50+ MPs and loads of members are angry with him for betraying the Borissiah.
So free vote is the only option - he could even abstain or let it be know others should vote against or abstain if he wanted. No that would not save him from repercussions from members, but the bottom line is that if the committee recommends sanctions the votes are probably there regardless. There's not much point to Sunak pissing into the wind.
"agile as a cat' > really? the Boris that yours truly saw, was about as agile as a 300-lb sloth . . . on downers.
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She'll run rings around dreary Keith IMO
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Tip for front page editors - don't use colourful descriptors if using a picture that contradicts it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_after_2019_(LOESS).svg
Probably too much to hope there is a Member/Representative disconnect which causes them ongoing ructions.
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Sunak, like everybody, needs Boris to go over the cliff. But let’s not get complacent here, it’s still absolutely deadly for Sunak to be seen to be giving him the push as can lose Boris supporters, MPs, members, media, he really needs to win over. He can spark another outbreak of bitterness and factionalism.
What kind of penalty does Rishi want to give free vote on - 5 days or 10 days? Answer is easy - 5. Because the jeopardy to Boris of 10 would create a bigger split Tory Party vote, angry members v MPs, and Boris media supporters turn on Rishi too.
If motion says 5 days, Sunak’s problems are instead with the opposition, they want to present 5 days as leniency, Sunak Boris stitch up and letting the country down. there has to be a Tory whipping operation to defeat any amendments changing 5 to 10, because if it is amended, the free vote goes out of the window as they now have to whip against the motion itself, or the Tory members many MPs and press will say unfair, bitterness etc. Whilst the opposition will claim unfair, lack of justice if it’s not 10 days.
There’s an awful lot going on here, and a lot of stake for Rishi too, not just Boris
My prediction. The sentence is 5 day suspension, and everything I have just described, all that jeopardy for Sunak, comes into play.
Gender bill row boosted support for SNP, suggests Humza Yousaf
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/24ca356e-c8ab-11ed-82d6-a363978c4bcb?shareToken=ee09d413662d2fd691bd3c0f80494e9e
Fwiw, I think it's pretty much guaranteed the committee finds against Johnson. At best they'll find he recklessly misled the Commons. At worst that he did so wilfully. There's a strong basis for the latter, but intent is always hard to demonstrate so former more likely....
Costa's questioning provides the spine of the argument: even if you thought these gatherings were legitimate, which is nearly impossible to believe, you had a duty to secure reliable legal advice for your assurances to the Commons. You did not. That was reckless.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1638640291245617153?s=20
I think it’s some sort of cocoa time Ayahuasca ritual Boba does, pastes this in a haze, by morning forgotten all about it. Even oblivious to what they are doing 💁♀️
The only question now is whether they recommend a stern enough punishment to potentially trigger a by-election. In this I think Johnson's attempt to discredit the committee actually work against him by encouraging them to take a hard stand against him.
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Never in the week lol
If it starts going in any other directions, it can still escalate into bigger problems for Rishi.
I’m half guessing the motion can be amended, half thinking that’s what they tried to do to Patterson’s?
If it can be, opposition will certainly try, then it becomes a bit more of a messy and hazardous session for Rishi and his business managers.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1638657890964611074?s=20
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A pretty insidious bout of it tonight. 🤔
Probably making perfect sense of Scriabins later orchestral works whilst simultaneously posting.
Typo in there
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Whilst Rachel Reeves gets an advance of, wait for it, £8,200.
"Wednesday's update to the MPs' register of interests also included another £527,000 in speaking fees for Boris Johnson from the first two weeks of March.
The former prime minister received £261,596 from London-based consultants Brand Finance PLC and £266,031 from American law firm Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check.
Some £369,605 of that total has been deducted from a £2.5 million advance the former prime minister received from speaking agency Harry Walker Agency in January...........
Rachel Reeves, the Shadow chancellor, has received an advance of £8,200 from Hodder and Stoughton for her book on "The Women Who Made Modern Economics"."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/03/22/lee-anderson-paid-100k-year-host-gb-news-show/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gv1Oi3K1vN0
Some will conclude that, for all his dissembling and obfuscation, what happened in Downing Street is hardly a hanging offence. Then you remember that, as all the shenanigans were going on at the heart of the Johnson government, plain folk were unable to attend the funerals of loved ones or visit them in care homes. While a woman was handcuffed for queuing for a coffee and pensioners were fined for eating a bag of chips in a laundrette.
American political journalists I know are in awe of Britain’s emphasis on politicians telling parliament the truth. We don’t have the same rules for Congress, they say. So perhaps we should celebrate a part of our constitution that still works and engenders the admiration of other democracies.
As for Boris Johnson, a brilliant but flawed politician, perhaps the only realistic conclusion is the one that has been a hallmark of his career time and again: he brought it on himself.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-11892261/ANDREW-NEIL-BBC-leaving-Covid-didnt-cross-mind-No10-two.html
His defence is essentially that he is an idiot. An idiot who did not understand the rules he wrote. “It wasn’t obvious to me.” It was the media’s fault. His advisers’ fault. Sue Gray’s fault. The salad’s fault. Harriet Harman’s Twitter account’s fault.
That the committee kept their exasperation under control is admirable. After leaving politics they could hire themselves out to explain to recalcitrant toddlers why they need to put their coats on.
Whatever the committee decides to do next, though, doesn’t matter. Johnson might get suspended from the Commons, he might fight a by-election he might lose. Whatever. That’s a sideshow.
The thing that signalled that it’s over for Johnson came at just after 2.20pm on March 22, 2023, when just 22 Tories joined him in voting against Rishi Sunak’s attempt to clear up the mess he left in Northern Ireland. It’s a sign that most Conservatives, like the public, have already left him. And he didn’t even get to raise a glass and deliver a few words to say goodbye.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0e362e10-c8de-11ed-84e7-e2697ffed9a9?shareToken=75abbaa44ccca8ec449cd320a074a823
Ex-Florida lawmaker behind the 'Don't Say Gay' law pleads guilty to COVID relief fraud
https://www.npr.org/2023/03/22/1165292718/florida-lawmaker-dont-say-gay-covid-fraud
Plenty of dodgy lobbyists, crony contracting, shady land use decisions, influence peddling, that kind of thing.
This bum is a bush-league bottom-feeder by Sunshine State standards.
I'd just noted a lot of similar stories recently.
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=347640
...And during the opening ceremony of the exhibition at the gallery last month, the 79-year-old, without fail, presented his signature performance. He started the routine by doing freehand exercises and eventually stripped off until he was left with just a shower cap, swimming trunks and a pair of goggles.
"My performance lacks substance!" he shouted. "Be gone, substance! Let only the surface remain!"..
On his performance yesterday a ten day suspension is merited. They should sanction based on the evidence not party politics.
And when I say Tory MPs I don't mean red so-called Tories like Sir Bernard Jenkin. I mean proper intellectual heavyweights. Like Lee Anderson interviewing Scott Benton for detailed analysis of how inflation is really a global socialist plot.
The contrast is not to Mr Johnson's advantage.