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The NHS the biggest vulnerability of Sunak’s Tories – Ipsos polling – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • ReedReed Posts: 152
    This is why regional banks are down 6% today.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    Reed said:

    geoffw said:

    Re: "Reed" - perhaps worth noting, that Reed College in Portland, Oregon was alma mater of John Reed, author of "Ten Days That Shook the World" who died and was buried in Moscow in 1920, in Red Square just a kopeck's throw from Mad Vlad the Elder.

    Coincidence? Conspiracy? Kismet? Or more Kremlin Bullshit?

    A good u/g university friend in the 1960s spent an academic year on an exchange at Reed.
    I note that John Reed is not mentioned in the Wiki list of famous Reed alumni
    Reed said:

    Nigelb said:

    Reed said:

    Love how me talking aboutbyhe banking system has me accused of being a russian troll. Or was it my comments on universities im confused lol .

    Still no "source" for that "tweet" which "you" posted?
    ChatFSB ?
    Ok guys heres the source. To be fair i think the source has a certain "angle" on things. Doesnt mean they are wrong though. Watch the video. Its based on what Yellen said when they were questioned in congress.

    https://twitter.com/BernieSpofforth/status/1636765921434804225?s=20

    Janet Yellen is worryingly unconvincing in her reply to the Oklahoma senator about the knock-on consequences for community banks.

    Basically Yellen was saying the deposits of systematically unimportant banks wont be guaranteed. Hence the danger of a run on the regional banks.
    Do you mean 'systemically unimportant banks?' Or do they fail according to rota?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565

    rcs1000 said:

    Do we possibly have yet another one of Mad Vlad's finest bots on the job here on PB?

    Perhaps unsurprisingly, their IP address shows up in the dnsbl.spfbl.net list as compromised.

    Which is a shame. But I say we let them stay. Who's with me?
    Please let they stay.

    They are funny, harmless, and it keeps them away from causing mischief elsewhere.
    Well, you will be the one tasked with taking it to The Hague in due course....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,265

    rcs1000 said:

    Do we possibly have yet another one of Mad Vlad's finest bots on the job here on PB?

    Perhaps unsurprisingly, their IP address shows up in the dnsbl.spfbl.net list as compromised.

    Which is a shame. But I say we let them stay. Who's with me?
    Please let they stay.

    They are funny, harmless, and it keeps them away from causing mischief elsewhere.
    Well, you will be the one tasked with taking it to The Hague in due course....
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v69JmLRg0-U&t=198s
  • malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Loose horse madness in the 4.10

    No further bets now, from me.

    Irish Hill in the 4:50
    I did look at that one to be honest, Malc. You have given the site a good tip imo.

    Another huge field though. My book is closed.
    Apologies it is the 17:30 rather than 16:50
    Yes, I noticed that, Malc.

    I expect it will finish at 18.30. ;)
    Peter , you were right as ever
    To be fair, Malc, it was a decent shout and it ran an ok race, but if you are going to stick your head above the parapet here you can't expect 'fair'! Gotta have a thick skin to be a tipster.

    Enjoy the Scottish GN. It's a great event.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,929
    Andy_JS said:

    Projected Labour seats has dropped from 369 to 362 in just 24 hours with UKPollingReport's forecast.

    https://pollingreport.uk/seats

    Must be a reflection of a small uptick in the Tory share in many recent opinion polls.

    Klaxon on standby.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    Andy_JS said:

    Projected Labour seats has dropped from 369 to 362 in just 24 hours with UKPollingReport's forecast.

    https://pollingreport.uk/seats

    SKS fans .........
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,265
    edited March 2023
    ydoethur said:

    Reed said:

    geoffw said:

    Re: "Reed" - perhaps worth noting, that Reed College in Portland, Oregon was alma mater of John Reed, author of "Ten Days That Shook the World" who died and was buried in Moscow in 1920, in Red Square just a kopeck's throw from Mad Vlad the Elder.

    Coincidence? Conspiracy? Kismet? Or more Kremlin Bullshit?

    A good u/g university friend in the 1960s spent an academic year on an exchange at Reed.
    I note that John Reed is not mentioned in the Wiki list of famous Reed alumni
    Reed said:

    Nigelb said:

    Reed said:

    Love how me talking aboutbyhe banking system has me accused of being a russian troll. Or was it my comments on universities im confused lol .

    Still no "source" for that "tweet" which "you" posted?
    ChatFSB ?
    Ok guys heres the source. To be fair i think the source has a certain "angle" on things. Doesnt mean they are wrong though. Watch the video. Its based on what Yellen said when they were questioned in congress.

    https://twitter.com/BernieSpofforth/status/1636765921434804225?s=20

    Janet Yellen is worryingly unconvincing in her reply to the Oklahoma senator about the knock-on consequences for community banks.

    Basically Yellen was saying the deposits of systematically unimportant banks wont be guaranteed. Hence the danger of a run on the regional banks.
    Do you mean 'systemically unimportant banks?' Or do they fail according to rota?
    No, they fail when The Chairman presses the buttons on his control panel at the meeting. The one where we give the Illuminati their marching orders.

    image
  • ReedReed Posts: 152

    ydoethur said:

    Reed said:

    geoffw said:

    Re: "Reed" - perhaps worth noting, that Reed College in Portland, Oregon was alma mater of John Reed, author of "Ten Days That Shook the World" who died and was buried in Moscow in 1920, in Red Square just a kopeck's throw from Mad Vlad the Elder.

    Coincidence? Conspiracy? Kismet? Or more Kremlin Bullshit?

    A good u/g university friend in the 1960s spent an academic year on an exchange at Reed.
    I note that John Reed is not mentioned in the Wiki list of famous Reed alumni
    Reed said:

    Nigelb said:

    Reed said:

    Love how me talking aboutbyhe banking system has me accused of being a russian troll. Or was it my comments on universities im confused lol .

    Still no "source" for that "tweet" which "you" posted?
    ChatFSB ?
    Ok guys heres the source. To be fair i think the source has a certain "angle" on things. Doesnt mean they are wrong though. Watch the video. Its based on what Yellen said when they were questioned in congress.

    https://twitter.com/BernieSpofforth/status/1636765921434804225?s=20

    Janet Yellen is worryingly unconvincing in her reply to the Oklahoma senator about the knock-on consequences for community banks.

    Basically Yellen was saying the deposits of systematically unimportant banks wont be guaranteed. Hence the danger of a run on the regional banks.
    Do you mean 'systemically unimportant banks?' Or do they fail according to rota?
    No, they fail when The Chairman presses the buttons on his control panel at the meeting. The one where we give the Illuminati their marching orders.

    image
    Cheap shot when it was Yellen speaking in Congress and regional banks have lost one third of their value in 2 weeks. Still keep burying your head in the sand.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    MikeL said:

    Survation:

    NEW Pre-Budget Westminster Voting Intention.

    LAB 48% (+3)
    CON 32% (+3)
    LD 8% (-2)
    GRE 2% (-1)
    SNP 3% (nc)
    REF 3% (-1)
    Others 5% (-1)

    F/w 13-15 March. Changes vs. 2-3 March.

    So another poll showing Con rating well up - though lead unchanged.

    But remember what Bob Worcester always said - always look at the rating, not the lead.

    So, on that basis, a bit more encouragement for Con.

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1636767308436717574?cxt=HHwWjIC-9b3M-7YtAAAA

    Just another meh midterm poll with the scores bouncing around the margin of error. Barely worth a pixel of analysis, never mind your enthusiastic over-analysis.
    I thought @MoonRabbit holds the IP on torturing data in polls?
    The main take out from this poll is how it affirms Mike Smithsons analysis of gap between new and old pollsters.

    Survation 10yrs old v the Great Robert “Bob” Worcestershires Mori firm lagging 8% behind the latest Survation. That’s quite a big gap.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/03/02/a-big-gap-has-opened-up-among-the-pollsters/

  • ReedReed Posts: 152

    ydoethur said:

    Reed said:

    geoffw said:

    Re: "Reed" - perhaps worth noting, that Reed College in Portland, Oregon was alma mater of John Reed, author of "Ten Days That Shook the World" who died and was buried in Moscow in 1920, in Red Square just a kopeck's throw from Mad Vlad the Elder.

    Coincidence? Conspiracy? Kismet? Or more Kremlin Bullshit?

    A good u/g university friend in the 1960s spent an academic year on an exchange at Reed.
    I note that John Reed is not mentioned in the Wiki list of famous Reed alumni
    Reed said:

    Nigelb said:

    Reed said:

    Love how me talking aboutbyhe banking system has me accused of being a russian troll. Or was it my comments on universities im confused lol .

    Still no "source" for that "tweet" which "you" posted?
    ChatFSB ?
    Ok guys heres the source. To be fair i think the source has a certain "angle" on things. Doesnt mean they are wrong though. Watch the video. Its based on what Yellen said when they were questioned in congress.

    https://twitter.com/BernieSpofforth/status/1636765921434804225?s=20

    Janet Yellen is worryingly unconvincing in her reply to the Oklahoma senator about the knock-on consequences for community banks.

    Basically Yellen was saying the deposits of systematically unimportant banks wont be guaranteed. Hence the danger of a run on the regional banks.
    Do you mean 'systemically unimportant banks?' Or do they fail according to rota?
    No, they fail when The Chairman presses the buttons on his control panel at the meeting. The one where we give the Illuminati their marching orders.

    image
    What public school did you go to by the way.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited March 2023
    MikeL said:

    Survation:

    NEW Pre-Budget Westminster Voting Intention.

    LAB 48% (+3)
    CON 32% (+3)
    LD 8% (-2)
    GRE 2% (-1)
    SNP 3% (nc)
    REF 3% (-1)
    Others 5% (-1)

    F/w 13-15 March. Changes vs. 2-3 March.

    So another poll showing Con rating well up - though lead unchanged.

    But remember what Bob Worcester always said - always look at the rating, not the lead.

    So, on that basis, a bit more encouragement for Con.

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1636767308436717574?cxt=HHwWjIC-9b3M-7YtAAAA

    Rishi will be very pleased with that poll from Gold Standard Survation.

    The Tories now at Howard 2005 levels of 32% and above Major 1997 and Hague 2001 levels.

    When he became leader however the Tories were on just 23% in the last Survation poll under Truss which would have been the worst Conservative voteshare at a general election ever
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329
    Murray Foote bites the dust, looks like he was given false info re there being 72K SNP members and realises the game is up, a lie too far. The collapse continues.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited March 2023
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    I don't much care for the elderly baiting that some posters indulge in on pb.com.

    There is however no doubt that there is huge generational unfairness (induced primarily by property price rises but also University tuition fees and a rotten tax system).

    It would be pleasant to see political parties tackle this with more than honeyed words.

    One person in recent years who did this was Jeremy Corbyn, who pledged to scrap University tuition fees and write off tuition debt. That would have been a start.

    90% of over 65s never went to university at all. If that was still the case tuition fees would not have been needed.

    However you cannot expect the taxpayer to subsidise all students still now 40% go to university
    Every other Western European country has student fees that are more modest than ours.

    We should be able to match tuition fees in the Netherlands (2,314 euros a year), Germany (250 euros a semester) or France (the average is a few hundred euro a year).

    Whereas the UK's fees are more like a public (state) US University.
    And continental Europe doesn't have a single university in the top 25 in the global rankings outside Switzerland.

    Whereas most of the top 10 universities globally are in the UK and USA.

    If you want world leading universities you need students who attend them to pay for it
    We had leading universities for decades without students having to pay for them. The change to student fees was a political/philosophical decision and not an inevitable one.
    Relative to US colleges they were
    declining as the top professors and researchers went to the US as they were paid more
    There is no evidence of such a decline at all. The decision to turn universities into businesses first and seats of learning/research second was an ideological one not one borne out of necessity.
    Yes there was, top professors and researchers could earn double their salary at a US college and many made that move.

    Now 40% go to university it is also wrong for the 60% who don't go to have to subsidise all their fees and living costs via higher taxes. They could just about stomach paying for the top 10% academically who would become doctors and lawyers etc not the rest. Hence both the LDs in 2005 and 2010 and Corbyn in 2017 and 2019 failed to get a majority for their manifesto commitment to scrap University tuition fees
    Brilliant point. People do forget that the 2005 election was essentially a referendum on the Lib Dem policy on tuition fees, and that it resulted in a crushing 78% vote in favour of keeping them.
    48% of voters now believe university tuition fees are fair, just 36% unfair. Even 45% of 18 to 24s think they are fair to 38% unfair.

    62% of Conservative voters think they are fair
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/education/trackers/are-tuition-fees-fair
  • ReedReed Posts: 152
    HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    Survation:

    NEW Pre-Budget Westminster Voting Intention.

    LAB 48% (+3)
    CON 32% (+3)
    LD 8% (-2)
    GRE 2% (-1)
    SNP 3% (nc)
    REF 3% (-1)
    Others 5% (-1)

    F/w 13-15 March. Changes vs. 2-3 March.

    So another poll showing Con rating well up - though lead unchanged.

    But remember what Bob Worcester always said - always look at the rating, not the lead.

    So, on that basis, a bit more encouragement for Con.

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1636767308436717574?cxt=HHwWjIC-9b3M-7YtAAAA

    Rishi will be very pleased with that poll from Gold Standard Survation.

    The Tories now at Howard 2005 levels of 32% and above Major 1997 and Hague 2001 levels.

    When he became leader however the Tories were on just 23% in the last Survation poll under Truss which would have been the worst Conservative voteshare at a general election ever
    However the economy is likely to get worse from here.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874

    Andy_JS said:

    Projected Labour seats has dropped from 369 to 362 in just 24 hours with UKPollingReport's forecast.

    https://pollingreport.uk/seats

    Must be a reflection of a small uptick in the Tory share in many recent opinion polls.

    320, here we come....
    Oh dear, one or two getting a bit excited on here tonight. A swing in a by-election, a win in Scotland and a couple of not-quite-so-bad polls and suddenly Sunak will be Prime Minister until 2029,

    I'll have some of what you're smoking or drinking.

    Techne has the Conservatives AND Labour up one point so well within MoE while YouGov has a four point rise but that poll last week looked a big outlier and so it proved - Labour also up one and the combined LD/Green/Reform number down three so tiny moves but of course if you're desperate for good news you'll grab anything that comes past. Survation has the Conservatives AND Labour up three each so perhaps another outlier.

    Yes, some of the really big leads of the Truss/Kwarteng period have passed but the polls continue to show Labour leads between 15 and 20 points.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    Survation:

    NEW Pre-Budget Westminster Voting Intention.

    LAB 48% (+3)
    CON 32% (+3)
    LD 8% (-2)
    GRE 2% (-1)
    SNP 3% (nc)
    REF 3% (-1)
    Others 5% (-1)

    F/w 13-15 March. Changes vs. 2-3 March.

    So another poll showing Con rating well up - though lead unchanged.

    But remember what Bob Worcester always said - always look at the rating, not the lead.

    So, on that basis, a bit more encouragement for Con.

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1636767308436717574?cxt=HHwWjIC-9b3M-7YtAAAA

    Rishi will be very pleased with that poll from Gold Standard Survation.

    The Tories now at Howard 2005 levels of 32% and above Major 1997 and Hague 2001 levels.

    When he became leader however the Tories were on just 23% in the last Survation poll under Truss which would have been the worst Conservative voteshare at a general election ever
    However the economy is likely to get worse from here.
    Hunt is doing the right things however to get the deficit down and give him room for manoeuvre if needed
  • Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    Survation:

    NEW Pre-Budget Westminster Voting Intention.

    LAB 48% (+3)
    CON 32% (+3)
    LD 8% (-2)
    GRE 2% (-1)
    SNP 3% (nc)
    REF 3% (-1)
    Others 5% (-1)

    F/w 13-15 March. Changes vs. 2-3 March.

    So another poll showing Con rating well up - though lead unchanged.

    But remember what Bob Worcester always said - always look at the rating, not the lead.

    So, on that basis, a bit more encouragement for Con.

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1636767308436717574?cxt=HHwWjIC-9b3M-7YtAAAA

    Rishi will be very pleased with that poll from Gold Standard Survation.

    The Tories now at Howard 2005 levels of 32% and above Major 1997 and Hague 2001 levels.

    When he became leader however the Tories were on just 23% in the last Survation poll under Truss which would have been the worst Conservative voteshare at a general election ever
    However the economy is likely to get worse from here.
    Not for me. I’ve bought loads of shares in companies who made the Covid-19 vaccines.

    Massive profits.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Projected Labour seats has dropped from 369 to 362 in just 24 hours with UKPollingReport's forecast.

    https://pollingreport.uk/seats

    Must be a reflection of a small uptick in the Tory share in many recent opinion polls.

    320, here we come....
    Oh dear, one or two getting a bit excited on here tonight. A swing in a by-election, a win in Scotland and a couple of not-quite-so-bad polls and suddenly Sunak will be Prime Minister until 2029,

    I'll have some of what you're smoking or drinking.

    Techne has the Conservatives AND Labour up one point so well within MoE while YouGov has a four point rise but that poll last week looked a big outlier and so it proved - Labour also up one and the combined LD/Green/Reform number down three so tiny moves but of course if you're desperate for good news you'll grab anything that comes past. Survation has the Conservatives AND Labour up three each so perhaps another outlier.

    Yes, some of the really big leads of the Truss/Kwarteng period have passed but the polls continue to show Labour leads between 15 and 20 points.
    In 2017 and 2015 it was Survation who were right and the other pollsters who were wrong
  • ReedReed Posts: 152

    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    Survation:

    NEW Pre-Budget Westminster Voting Intention.

    LAB 48% (+3)
    CON 32% (+3)
    LD 8% (-2)
    GRE 2% (-1)
    SNP 3% (nc)
    REF 3% (-1)
    Others 5% (-1)

    F/w 13-15 March. Changes vs. 2-3 March.

    So another poll showing Con rating well up - though lead unchanged.

    But remember what Bob Worcester always said - always look at the rating, not the lead.

    So, on that basis, a bit more encouragement for Con.

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1636767308436717574?cxt=HHwWjIC-9b3M-7YtAAAA

    Rishi will be very pleased with that poll from Gold Standard Survation.

    The Tories now at Howard 2005 levels of 32% and above Major 1997 and Hague 2001 levels.

    When he became leader however the Tories were on just 23% in the last Survation poll under Truss which would have been the worst Conservative voteshare at a general election ever
    However the economy is likely to get worse from here.
    Not for me. I’ve bought loads of shares in companies who made the Covid-19 vaccines.

    Massive profits.
    And what public school did you go to.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,590
    Marcus smells of cheese greatly.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    I don't much care for the elderly baiting that some posters indulge in on pb.com.

    There is however no doubt that there is huge generational unfairness (induced primarily by property price rises but also University tuition fees and a rotten tax system).

    It would be pleasant to see political parties tackle this with more than honeyed words.

    One person in recent years who did this was Jeremy Corbyn, who pledged to scrap University tuition fees and write off tuition debt. That would have been a start.

    90% of over 65s never went to university at all. If that was still the case tuition fees would not have been needed.

    However you cannot expect the taxpayer to subsidise all students still now 40% go to university
    Every other Western European country has student fees that are more modest than ours.

    We should be able to match tuition fees in the Netherlands (2,314 euros a year), Germany (250 euros a semester) or France (the average is a few hundred euro a year).

    Whereas the UK's fees are more like a public (state) US University.
    And continental Europe doesn't have a single university in the top 25 in the global rankings outside Switzerland.

    Whereas most of the top 10 universities globally are in the UK and USA.

    If you want world leading universities you need students who attend them to pay for it
    We had leading universities for decades without students having to pay for them. The change to student fees was a political/philosophical decision and not an inevitable one.
    Relative to US colleges they were
    declining as the top professors and researchers went to the US as they were paid more
    There is no evidence of such a decline at all. The decision to turn universities into businesses first and seats of learning/research second was an ideological one not one borne out of necessity.
    Yes there was, top professors and researchers could earn double their salary at a US college and many made that move.

    Now 40% go to university it is also wrong for the 60% who don't go to have to subsidise all their fees and living costs via higher taxes. They could just about stomach paying for the top 10% academically who would become doctors and lawyers etc not the rest. Hence both the LDs in 2005 and 2010 and Corbyn in 2017 and 2019 failed to get a majority for their manifesto commitment to scrap University tuition fees
    Brilliant point. People do forget that the 2005 election was essentially a referendum on the Lib Dem policy on tuition fees, and that it resulted in a crushing 78% vote in favour of keeping them.
    48% of voters now believe university tuition fees are fair, just 36% unfair. Even 45% of 18 to 24s think they are fair to 38% unfair.

    62% of Conservative voters think they are fair
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/education/trackers/are-tuition-fees-fair
    Conservative voters went to Uni when there non-repayable grants.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,265
    Reed said:

    ydoethur said:

    Reed said:

    geoffw said:

    Re: "Reed" - perhaps worth noting, that Reed College in Portland, Oregon was alma mater of John Reed, author of "Ten Days That Shook the World" who died and was buried in Moscow in 1920, in Red Square just a kopeck's throw from Mad Vlad the Elder.

    Coincidence? Conspiracy? Kismet? Or more Kremlin Bullshit?

    A good u/g university friend in the 1960s spent an academic year on an exchange at Reed.
    I note that John Reed is not mentioned in the Wiki list of famous Reed alumni
    Reed said:

    Nigelb said:

    Reed said:

    Love how me talking aboutbyhe banking system has me accused of being a russian troll. Or was it my comments on universities im confused lol .

    Still no "source" for that "tweet" which "you" posted?
    ChatFSB ?
    Ok guys heres the source. To be fair i think the source has a certain "angle" on things. Doesnt mean they are wrong though. Watch the video. Its based on what Yellen said when they were questioned in congress.

    https://twitter.com/BernieSpofforth/status/1636765921434804225?s=20

    Janet Yellen is worryingly unconvincing in her reply to the Oklahoma senator about the knock-on consequences for community banks.

    Basically Yellen was saying the deposits of systematically unimportant banks wont be guaranteed. Hence the danger of a run on the regional banks.
    Do you mean 'systemically unimportant banks?' Or do they fail according to rota?
    No, they fail when The Chairman presses the buttons on his control panel at the meeting. The one where we give the Illuminati their marching orders.

    image
    What public school did you go to by the way.
    Колыма́
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    Survation:

    NEW Pre-Budget Westminster Voting Intention.

    LAB 48% (+3)
    CON 32% (+3)
    LD 8% (-2)
    GRE 2% (-1)
    SNP 3% (nc)
    REF 3% (-1)
    Others 5% (-1)

    F/w 13-15 March. Changes vs. 2-3 March.

    So another poll showing Con rating well up - though lead unchanged.

    But remember what Bob Worcester always said - always look at the rating, not the lead.

    So, on that basis, a bit more encouragement for Con.

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1636767308436717574?cxt=HHwWjIC-9b3M-7YtAAAA

    Rishi will be very pleased with that poll from Gold Standard Survation.

    The Tories now at Howard 2005 levels of 32% and above Major 1997 and Hague 2001 levels.

    When he became leader however the Tories were on just 23% in the last Survation poll under Truss which would have been the worst Conservative voteshare at a general election ever
    However the economy is likely to get worse from here.
    Not for me. I’ve bought loads of shares in companies who made the Covid-19 vaccines.

    Massive profits.
    And what public school did you go to.
    A minor one I believe
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    I don't much care for the elderly baiting that some posters indulge in on pb.com.

    There is however no doubt that there is huge generational unfairness (induced primarily by property price rises but also University tuition fees and a rotten tax system).

    It would be pleasant to see political parties tackle this with more than honeyed words.

    One person in recent years who did this was Jeremy Corbyn, who pledged to scrap University tuition fees and write off tuition debt. That would have been a start.

    90% of over 65s never went to university at all. If that was still the case tuition fees would not have been needed.

    However you cannot expect the taxpayer to subsidise all students still now 40% go to university
    Every other Western European country has student fees that are more modest than ours.

    We should be able to match tuition fees in the Netherlands (2,314 euros a year), Germany (250 euros a semester) or France (the average is a few hundred euro a year).

    Whereas the UK's fees are more like a public (state) US University.
    And continental Europe doesn't have a single university in the top 25 in the global rankings outside Switzerland.

    Whereas most of the top 10 universities globally are in the UK and USA.

    If you want world leading universities you need students who attend them to pay for it
    We had leading universities for decades without students having to pay for them. The change to student fees was a political/philosophical decision and not an inevitable one.
    Relative to US colleges they were
    declining as the top professors and researchers went to the US as they were paid more
    There is no evidence of such a decline at all. The decision to turn universities into businesses first and seats of learning/research second was an ideological one not one borne out of necessity.
    Yes there was, top professors and researchers could earn double their salary at a US college and many made that move.

    Now 40% go to university it is also wrong for the 60% who don't go to have to subsidise all their fees and living costs via higher taxes. They could just about stomach paying for the top 10% academically who would become doctors and lawyers etc not the rest. Hence both the LDs in 2005 and 2010 and Corbyn in 2017 and 2019 failed to get a majority for their manifesto commitment to scrap University tuition fees
    Brilliant point. People do forget that the 2005 election was essentially a referendum on the Lib Dem policy on tuition fees, and that it resulted in a crushing 78% vote in favour of keeping them.
    48% of voters now believe university tuition fees are fair, just 36% unfair. Even 45% of 18 to 24s think they are fair to 38% unfair.

    62% of Conservative voters think they are fair
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/education/trackers/are-tuition-fees-fair
    Conservative voters went to Uni when there non-repayable grants.
    90% of over 65s never went to university at all
  • ReedReed Posts: 152

    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    Survation:

    NEW Pre-Budget Westminster Voting Intention.

    LAB 48% (+3)
    CON 32% (+3)
    LD 8% (-2)
    GRE 2% (-1)
    SNP 3% (nc)
    REF 3% (-1)
    Others 5% (-1)

    F/w 13-15 March. Changes vs. 2-3 March.

    So another poll showing Con rating well up - though lead unchanged.

    But remember what Bob Worcester always said - always look at the rating, not the lead.

    So, on that basis, a bit more encouragement for Con.

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1636767308436717574?cxt=HHwWjIC-9b3M-7YtAAAA

    Rishi will be very pleased with that poll from Gold Standard Survation.

    The Tories now at Howard 2005 levels of 32% and above Major 1997 and Hague 2001 levels.

    When he became leader however the Tories were on just 23% in the last Survation poll under Truss which would have been the worst Conservative voteshare at a general election ever
    However the economy is likely to get worse from here.
    Not for me. I’ve bought loads of shares in companies who made the Covid-19 vaccines.

    Massive profits.
    Ive just checked and pfizer stock down 20% this year. Whoops.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,929
    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    Survation:

    NEW Pre-Budget Westminster Voting Intention.

    LAB 48% (+3)
    CON 32% (+3)
    LD 8% (-2)
    GRE 2% (-1)
    SNP 3% (nc)
    REF 3% (-1)
    Others 5% (-1)

    F/w 13-15 March. Changes vs. 2-3 March.

    So another poll showing Con rating well up - though lead unchanged.

    But remember what Bob Worcester always said - always look at the rating, not the lead.

    So, on that basis, a bit more encouragement for Con.

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1636767308436717574?cxt=HHwWjIC-9b3M-7YtAAAA

    Rishi will be very pleased with that poll from Gold Standard Survation.

    The Tories now at Howard 2005 levels of 32% and above Major 1997 and Hague 2001 levels.

    When he became leader however the Tories were on just 23% in the last Survation poll under Truss which would have been the worst Conservative voteshare at a general election ever
    However the economy is likely to get worse from here.
    Not for me. I’ve bought loads of shares in companies who made the Covid-19 vaccines.

    Massive profits.
    And what public school did you go to.
    Which one did you go to?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,929
    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    Survation:

    NEW Pre-Budget Westminster Voting Intention.

    LAB 48% (+3)
    CON 32% (+3)
    LD 8% (-2)
    GRE 2% (-1)
    SNP 3% (nc)
    REF 3% (-1)
    Others 5% (-1)

    F/w 13-15 March. Changes vs. 2-3 March.

    So another poll showing Con rating well up - though lead unchanged.

    But remember what Bob Worcester always said - always look at the rating, not the lead.

    So, on that basis, a bit more encouragement for Con.

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1636767308436717574?cxt=HHwWjIC-9b3M-7YtAAAA

    Rishi will be very pleased with that poll from Gold Standard Survation.

    The Tories now at Howard 2005 levels of 32% and above Major 1997 and Hague 2001 levels.

    When he became leader however the Tories were on just 23% in the last Survation poll under Truss which would have been the worst Conservative voteshare at a general election ever
    However the economy is likely to get worse from here.
    Not for me. I’ve bought loads of shares in companies who made the Covid-19 vaccines.

    Massive profits.
    Ive just checked and pfizer stock down 20% this year. Whoops.
    He said vaccines, not microchip manufacturers.
  • Reed said:

    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    Survation:

    NEW Pre-Budget Westminster Voting Intention.

    LAB 48% (+3)
    CON 32% (+3)
    LD 8% (-2)
    GRE 2% (-1)
    SNP 3% (nc)
    REF 3% (-1)
    Others 5% (-1)

    F/w 13-15 March. Changes vs. 2-3 March.

    So another poll showing Con rating well up - though lead unchanged.

    But remember what Bob Worcester always said - always look at the rating, not the lead.

    So, on that basis, a bit more encouragement for Con.

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1636767308436717574?cxt=HHwWjIC-9b3M-7YtAAAA

    Rishi will be very pleased with that poll from Gold Standard Survation.

    The Tories now at Howard 2005 levels of 32% and above Major 1997 and Hague 2001 levels.

    When he became leader however the Tories were on just 23% in the last Survation poll under Truss which would have been the worst Conservative voteshare at a general election ever
    However the economy is likely to get worse from here.
    Not for me. I’ve bought loads of shares in companies who made the Covid-19 vaccines.

    Massive profits.
    And what public school did you go to.
    A minor one.
  • Reed said:

    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    Survation:

    NEW Pre-Budget Westminster Voting Intention.

    LAB 48% (+3)
    CON 32% (+3)
    LD 8% (-2)
    GRE 2% (-1)
    SNP 3% (nc)
    REF 3% (-1)
    Others 5% (-1)

    F/w 13-15 March. Changes vs. 2-3 March.

    So another poll showing Con rating well up - though lead unchanged.

    But remember what Bob Worcester always said - always look at the rating, not the lead.

    So, on that basis, a bit more encouragement for Con.

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1636767308436717574?cxt=HHwWjIC-9b3M-7YtAAAA

    Rishi will be very pleased with that poll from Gold Standard Survation.

    The Tories now at Howard 2005 levels of 32% and above Major 1997 and Hague 2001 levels.

    When he became leader however the Tories were on just 23% in the last Survation poll under Truss which would have been the worst Conservative voteshare at a general election ever
    However the economy is likely to get worse from here.
    Not for me. I’ve bought loads of shares in companies who made the Covid-19 vaccines.

    Massive profits.
    Ive just checked and pfizer stock down 20% this year. Whoops.
    Long term profits.

    Also I invested in British Airways.

    A lot of their pilots gave me good information.
  • ReedReed Posts: 152

    Reed said:

    ydoethur said:

    Reed said:

    geoffw said:

    Re: "Reed" - perhaps worth noting, that Reed College in Portland, Oregon was alma mater of John Reed, author of "Ten Days That Shook the World" who died and was buried in Moscow in 1920, in Red Square just a kopeck's throw from Mad Vlad the Elder.

    Coincidence? Conspiracy? Kismet? Or more Kremlin Bullshit?

    A good u/g university friend in the 1960s spent an academic year on an exchange at Reed.
    I note that John Reed is not mentioned in the Wiki list of famous Reed alumni
    Reed said:

    Nigelb said:

    Reed said:

    Love how me talking aboutbyhe banking system has me accused of being a russian troll. Or was it my comments on universities im confused lol .

    Still no "source" for that "tweet" which "you" posted?
    ChatFSB ?
    Ok guys heres the source. To be fair i think the source has a certain "angle" on things. Doesnt mean they are wrong though. Watch the video. Its based on what Yellen said when they were questioned in congress.

    https://twitter.com/BernieSpofforth/status/1636765921434804225?s=20

    Janet Yellen is worryingly unconvincing in her reply to the Oklahoma senator about the knock-on consequences for community banks.

    Basically Yellen was saying the deposits of systematically unimportant banks wont be guaranteed. Hence the danger of a run on the regional banks.
    Do you mean 'systemically unimportant banks?' Or do they fail according to rota?
    No, they fail when The Chairman presses the buttons on his control panel at the meeting. The one where we give the Illuminati their marching orders.

    image
    What public school did you go to by the way.
    Колыма́
    You know most posters engage on here in a sensible constructive way. You never do. Why is that. Like i say you have all the hallmarks of a public schoolboy atrempting to display social superiority with sarcastic putdowns.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,590
    edited March 2023
    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    ydoethur said:

    Reed said:

    geoffw said:

    Re: "Reed" - perhaps worth noting, that Reed College in Portland, Oregon was alma mater of John Reed, author of "Ten Days That Shook the World" who died and was buried in Moscow in 1920, in Red Square just a kopeck's throw from Mad Vlad the Elder.

    Coincidence? Conspiracy? Kismet? Or more Kremlin Bullshit?

    A good u/g university friend in the 1960s spent an academic year on an exchange at Reed.
    I note that John Reed is not mentioned in the Wiki list of famous Reed alumni
    Reed said:

    Nigelb said:

    Reed said:

    Love how me talking aboutbyhe banking system has me accused of being a russian troll. Or was it my comments on universities im confused lol .

    Still no "source" for that "tweet" which "you" posted?
    ChatFSB ?
    Ok guys heres the source. To be fair i think the source has a certain "angle" on things. Doesnt mean they are wrong though. Watch the video. Its based on what Yellen said when they were questioned in congress.

    https://twitter.com/BernieSpofforth/status/1636765921434804225?s=20

    Janet Yellen is worryingly unconvincing in her reply to the Oklahoma senator about the knock-on consequences for community banks.

    Basically Yellen was saying the deposits of systematically unimportant banks wont be guaranteed. Hence the danger of a run on the regional banks.
    Do you mean 'systemically unimportant banks?' Or do they fail according to rota?
    No, they fail when The Chairman presses the buttons on his control panel at the meeting. The one where we give the Illuminati their marching orders.

    image
    What public school did you go to by the way.
    Колыма́
    You know most posters engage on here in a sensible constructive way. You never do. Why is that. Like i say you have all the hallmarks of a public schoolboy atrempting to display social superiority with sarcastic putdowns.
    I'm unsure which PB poster you're referring to: we all have the hallmarks of public schoolboys atrempting to display social superiority with sarcastic putdowns. Even Malc.
  • ReedReed Posts: 152

    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    Survation:

    NEW Pre-Budget Westminster Voting Intention.

    LAB 48% (+3)
    CON 32% (+3)
    LD 8% (-2)
    GRE 2% (-1)
    SNP 3% (nc)
    REF 3% (-1)
    Others 5% (-1)

    F/w 13-15 March. Changes vs. 2-3 March.

    So another poll showing Con rating well up - though lead unchanged.

    But remember what Bob Worcester always said - always look at the rating, not the lead.

    So, on that basis, a bit more encouragement for Con.

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1636767308436717574?cxt=HHwWjIC-9b3M-7YtAAAA

    Rishi will be very pleased with that poll from Gold Standard Survation.

    The Tories now at Howard 2005 levels of 32% and above Major 1997 and Hague 2001 levels.

    When he became leader however the Tories were on just 23% in the last Survation poll under Truss which would have been the worst Conservative voteshare at a general election ever
    However the economy is likely to get worse from here.
    Not for me. I’ve bought loads of shares in companies who made the Covid-19 vaccines.

    Massive profits.
    And what public school did you go to.
    A minor one.
    Figures. Bet you feel insecure next to the big boys of eton and westminster.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Andy_JS said:

    Projected Labour seats has dropped from 369 to 362 in just 24 hours with UKPollingReport's forecast.

    https://pollingreport.uk/seats

    Must be a reflection of a small uptick in the Tory share in many recent opinion polls.

    320, here we come....
    320 for CON? :smiley:
    The same chart puts them on 195.

    Got to factor in, if Labour get only smallish working majority - though 362 seats will be much better than that - at the next election, they could increase the majority at a following election.

    There is so much from this period of Tory government voters won’t want to go back to, if Labour govern okay.
  • ReedReed Posts: 152

    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    ydoethur said:

    Reed said:

    geoffw said:

    Re: "Reed" - perhaps worth noting, that Reed College in Portland, Oregon was alma mater of John Reed, author of "Ten Days That Shook the World" who died and was buried in Moscow in 1920, in Red Square just a kopeck's throw from Mad Vlad the Elder.

    Coincidence? Conspiracy? Kismet? Or more Kremlin Bullshit?

    A good u/g university friend in the 1960s spent an academic year on an exchange at Reed.
    I note that John Reed is not mentioned in the Wiki list of famous Reed alumni
    Reed said:

    Nigelb said:

    Reed said:

    Love how me talking aboutbyhe banking system has me accused of being a russian troll. Or was it my comments on universities im confused lol .

    Still no "source" for that "tweet" which "you" posted?
    ChatFSB ?
    Ok guys heres the source. To be fair i think the source has a certain "angle" on things. Doesnt mean they are wrong though. Watch the video. Its based on what Yellen said when they were questioned in congress.

    https://twitter.com/BernieSpofforth/status/1636765921434804225?s=20

    Janet Yellen is worryingly unconvincing in her reply to the Oklahoma senator about the knock-on consequences for community banks.

    Basically Yellen was saying the deposits of systematically unimportant banks wont be guaranteed. Hence the danger of a run on the regional banks.
    Do you mean 'systemically unimportant banks?' Or do they fail according to rota?
    No, they fail when The Chairman presses the buttons on his control panel at the meeting. The one where we give the Illuminati their marching orders.

    image
    What public school did you go to by the way.
    Колыма́
    You know most posters engage on here in a sensible constructive way. You never do. Why is that. Like i say you have all the hallmarks of a public schoolboy atrempting to display social superiority with sarcastic putdowns.
    I'm unsure which PB poster you're referring to: we all have the hallmarks of public schoolboys atrempting to display social superiority with sarcastic putdowns. Even Malc.
    Yes but most on here at least attempt some constructive argument. Malmesbury never does for some reason.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717

    Andy_JS said:

    Projected Labour seats has dropped from 369 to 362 in just 24 hours with UKPollingReport's forecast.

    https://pollingreport.uk/seats

    Must be a reflection of a small uptick in the Tory share in many recent opinion polls.

    320, here we come....
    320 for CON? :smiley:
    The same chart puts them on 195.

    Got to factor in, if Labour get only smallish working majority - though 362 seats will be much better than that - at the next election, they could increase the majority at a following election.

    There is so much from this period of Tory government voters won’t want to go back to, if Labour govern okay.
    Your avatar suggests you are Moonhare in reality

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    Survation:

    NEW Pre-Budget Westminster Voting Intention.

    LAB 48% (+3)
    CON 32% (+3)
    LD 8% (-2)
    GRE 2% (-1)
    SNP 3% (nc)
    REF 3% (-1)
    Others 5% (-1)

    F/w 13-15 March. Changes vs. 2-3 March.

    So another poll showing Con rating well up - though lead unchanged.

    But remember what Bob Worcester always said - always look at the rating, not the lead.

    So, on that basis, a bit more encouragement for Con.

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1636767308436717574?cxt=HHwWjIC-9b3M-7YtAAAA

    Rishi will be very pleased with that poll from Gold Standard Survation.

    The Tories now at Howard 2005 levels of 32% and above Major 1997 and Hague 2001 levels.

    When he became leader however the Tories were on just 23% in the last Survation poll under Truss which would have been the worst Conservative voteshare at a general election ever
    However the economy is likely to get worse from here.
    Not for me. I’ve bought loads of shares in companies who made the Covid-19 vaccines.

    Massive profits.
    Ive just checked and pfizer stock down 20% this year. Whoops.
    Long term profits.

    Also I invested in British Airways.

    A lot of their pilots gave me good information.
    “A lot of their pilots gave me good information”

    Best type of wind for drying socks?
  • Reed said:

    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    Survation:

    NEW Pre-Budget Westminster Voting Intention.

    LAB 48% (+3)
    CON 32% (+3)
    LD 8% (-2)
    GRE 2% (-1)
    SNP 3% (nc)
    REF 3% (-1)
    Others 5% (-1)

    F/w 13-15 March. Changes vs. 2-3 March.

    So another poll showing Con rating well up - though lead unchanged.

    But remember what Bob Worcester always said - always look at the rating, not the lead.

    So, on that basis, a bit more encouragement for Con.

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1636767308436717574?cxt=HHwWjIC-9b3M-7YtAAAA

    Rishi will be very pleased with that poll from Gold Standard Survation.

    The Tories now at Howard 2005 levels of 32% and above Major 1997 and Hague 2001 levels.

    When he became leader however the Tories were on just 23% in the last Survation poll under Truss which would have been the worst Conservative voteshare at a general election ever
    However the economy is likely to get worse from here.
    Not for me. I’ve bought loads of shares in companies who made the Covid-19 vaccines.

    Massive profits.
    And what public school did you go to.
    A minor one.
    Figures. Bet you feel insecure next to the big boys of eton and westminster.
    Absolutely, my modest self effacing personality is well known.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    I don't much care for the elderly baiting that some posters indulge in on pb.com.

    There is however no doubt that there is huge generational unfairness (induced primarily by property price rises but also University tuition fees and a rotten tax system).

    It would be pleasant to see political parties tackle this with more than honeyed words.

    One person in recent years who did this was Jeremy Corbyn, who pledged to scrap University tuition fees and write off tuition debt. That would have been a start.

    90% of over 65s never went to university at all. If that was still the case tuition fees would not have been needed.

    However you cannot expect the taxpayer to subsidise all students still now 40% go to university
    Every other Western European country has student fees that are more modest than ours.

    We should be able to match tuition fees in the Netherlands (2,314 euros a year), Germany (250 euros a semester) or France (the average is a few hundred euro a year).

    Whereas the UK's fees are more like a public (state) US University.
    And continental Europe doesn't have a single university in the top 25 in the global rankings outside Switzerland.

    Whereas most of the top 10 universities globally are in the UK and USA.

    If you want world leading universities you need students who attend them to pay for it
    We had leading universities for decades without students having to pay for them. The change to student fees was a political/philosophical decision and not an inevitable one.
    Relative to US colleges they were
    declining as the top professors and researchers went to the US as they were paid more
    There is no evidence of such a decline at all. The decision to turn universities into businesses first and seats of learning/research second was an ideological one not one borne out of necessity.
    Yes there was, top professors and researchers could earn double their salary at a US college and many made that move.

    Now 40% go to university it is also wrong for the 60% who don't go to have to subsidise all their fees and living costs via higher taxes. They could just about stomach paying for the top 10% academically who would become doctors and lawyers etc not the rest. Hence both the LDs in 2005 and 2010 and Corbyn in 2017 and 2019 failed to get a majority for their manifesto commitment to scrap University tuition fees
    Brilliant point. People do forget that the 2005 election was essentially a referendum on the Lib Dem policy on tuition fees, and that it resulted in a crushing 78% vote in favour of keeping them.
    48% of voters now believe university tuition fees are fair, just 36% unfair. Even 45% of 18 to 24s think they are fair to 38% unfair.

    62% of Conservative voters think they are fair
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/education/trackers/are-tuition-fees-fair
    Conservative voters went to Uni when there non-repayable grants.
    90% of over 65s never went to university at all
    When I was in the VIth form boys who wanted to be solicitors, accountants or to be ‘something’ in local government had already left and started articles. As someone who eventually did pharmacy I could have done the same.
    However, I’m glad I stayed on into the VIth.
    And I’m glad I went on to Further Education. And moved well away from home.
  • ReedReed Posts: 152
    This is very interesting from John Mappin. Watch the video.

    VITAL BRIEFING FROM SWITZERLAND FROM AN ALPINE EYRIE. “The principal opinion formers of Europe have now concluded unequivocally that the West’s misadventure in supporting the Ukraine has been one of the greatest geopolitical errors of this and probably the previous century. As you will have noticed principal banks around the world are failing, even Credit Suisse, one if the more stable banks has had to request additional collateral from the Swiss government and all of this, directly or indirectly, is as a result of war mongers, those who profit from war, instigating the provocation of Presidnet Putin in relation to the Ukraine and beyond. It’s very obvious that President Putin has been extremely patient with the west and has dealt with the matter in an entirely moderate way and in a way that is not taking advantage of his position. But there is no question that the confidence in what the west is doing in Ukraine is now finished and that the out come will not be as the western media is presenting.

    https://twitter.com/JohnMappin/status/1636520389332332555?s=20
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited March 2023
    4 pollsters have had the Tories on 30% in recent polls, although with Deltapoll they dipped to 27% in the latest one.
  • ReedReed Posts: 152
    The greatest geopolitical error in 2 centuries Interesting and something to debate.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Reed said:

    The greatest geopolitical error in 2 centuries Interesting and something to debate.

    Clegg on tuition fees vs Brown selling the family gold?
  • ReedReed Posts: 152
    These are not conspiracy theorists these are the principle opinion leaders of Europe. Now let us have constructive argument.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,590
    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    ydoethur said:

    Reed said:

    geoffw said:

    Re: "Reed" - perhaps worth noting, that Reed College in Portland, Oregon was alma mater of John Reed, author of "Ten Days That Shook the World" who died and was buried in Moscow in 1920, in Red Square just a kopeck's throw from Mad Vlad the Elder.

    Coincidence? Conspiracy? Kismet? Or more Kremlin Bullshit?

    A good u/g university friend in the 1960s spent an academic year on an exchange at Reed.
    I note that John Reed is not mentioned in the Wiki list of famous Reed alumni
    Reed said:

    Nigelb said:

    Reed said:

    Love how me talking aboutbyhe banking system has me accused of being a russian troll. Or was it my comments on universities im confused lol .

    Still no "source" for that "tweet" which "you" posted?
    ChatFSB ?
    Ok guys heres the source. To be fair i think the source has a certain "angle" on things. Doesnt mean they are wrong though. Watch the video. Its based on what Yellen said when they were questioned in congress.

    https://twitter.com/BernieSpofforth/status/1636765921434804225?s=20

    Janet Yellen is worryingly unconvincing in her reply to the Oklahoma senator about the knock-on consequences for community banks.

    Basically Yellen was saying the deposits of systematically unimportant banks wont be guaranteed. Hence the danger of a run on the regional banks.
    Do you mean 'systemically unimportant banks?' Or do they fail according to rota?
    No, they fail when The Chairman presses the buttons on his control panel at the meeting. The one where we give the Illuminati their marching orders.

    image
    What public school did you go to by the way.
    Колыма́
    You know most posters engage on here in a sensible constructive way. You never do. Why is that. Like i say you have all the hallmarks of a public schoolboy atrempting to display social superiority with sarcastic putdowns.
    I'm unsure which PB poster you're referring to: we all have the hallmarks of public schoolboys atrempting to display social superiority with sarcastic putdowns. Even Malc.
    Yes but most on here at least attempt some constructive argument. Malmesbury never does for some reason.
    Malmesbury's rapidly becoming a much-loved PB institution, a bit like syphilis in a St Petersburg office - but without the embarrassment, lasting sense of shame and excruciating agony. Except when he goes over the top in praising Musk... ;)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,634
    Reed said:

    This is very interesting from John Mappin. Watch the video.

    VITAL BRIEFING FROM SWITZERLAND FROM AN ALPINE EYRIE. “The principal opinion formers of Europe have now concluded unequivocally that the West’s misadventure in supporting the Ukraine has been one of the greatest geopolitical errors of this and probably the previous century. As you will have noticed principal banks around the world are failing, even Credit Suisse, one if the more stable banks has had to request additional collateral from the Swiss government and all of this, directly or indirectly, is as a result of war mongers, those who profit from war, instigating the provocation of Presidnet Putin in relation to the Ukraine and beyond. It’s very obvious that President Putin has been extremely patient with the west and has dealt with the matter in an entirely moderate way and in a way that is not taking advantage of his position. But there is no question that the confidence in what the west is doing in Ukraine is now finished and that the out come will not be as the western media is presenting.

    https://twitter.com/JohnMappin/status/1636520389332332555?s=20

    It took you a while:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4339105#Comment_4339105
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Reed said:

    The greatest geopolitical error in 2 centuries Interesting and something to debate.

    We’ll see which leader ends up being tried for war crimes. Hint, it won’t be Biden, Johnson, Schroder, Sunak, Macron, Zelenski…
  • ReedReed Posts: 152

    Reed said:

    The greatest geopolitical error in 2 centuries Interesting and something to debate.

    We’ll see which leader ends up being tried for war crimes. Hint, it won’t be Biden, Johnson, Schroder, Sunak, Macron, Zelenski…
    Well i always defer to pb experts on these matters.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Projected Labour seats has dropped from 369 to 362 in just 24 hours with UKPollingReport's forecast.

    https://pollingreport.uk/seats

    Must be a reflection of a small uptick in the Tory share in many recent opinion polls.

    320, here we come....
    Oh dear, one or two getting a bit excited on here tonight. A swing in a by-election, a win in Scotland and a couple of not-quite-so-bad polls and suddenly Sunak will be Prime Minister until 2029,

    I'll have some of what you're smoking or drinking.

    Techne has the Conservatives AND Labour up one point so well within MoE while YouGov has a four point rise but that poll last week looked a big outlier and so it proved - Labour also up one and the combined LD/Green/Reform number down three so tiny moves but of course if you're desperate for good news you'll grab anything that comes past. Survation has the Conservatives AND Labour up three each so perhaps another outlier.

    Yes, some of the really big leads of the Truss/Kwarteng period have passed but the polls continue to show Labour leads between 15 and 20 points.
    In 2017 and 2015 it was Survation who were right and the other pollsters who were wrong
    Survation's data tables show a 15.5% swing from Conservative to Labour in England so that would mean the Conservative Parliamentary party down to around 170 seats and that's before any tactical voting.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Reed said:

    These are not conspiracy theorists these are the principle opinion leaders of Europe. Now let us have constructive argument.

    Ok, I’ll bite. West doesn’t support Ukraine, Ukraine falls. Who is next? Baltic states? Poland? Keep going. USSR empire once included Berlin. Why stop there?
    Putin is acting as badly as Hitler. If the French and British had marched when Hitler went into the Rhineland, he would likely have lost power, meaning no WW2.
    Sometimes the right thing to do is act. This is one such occasion.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,929
    Reed said:

    These are not conspiracy theorists these are the principle opinion leaders of Europe. Now let us have constructive argument.

    Are you sure it isn't a conspiracy theorist saying it?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    Andy_JS said:

    4 pollsters have had the Tories on 30% in recent polls, although with Deltapoll they dipped to 27% in the latest one.

    The most recent polls (fieldwork conducted this week) are Omnisis 25%, YouGov 27%, BMG 29% and Techne 30% so it looks as though the Conservatives are still just below 30% with Labour 46-47%.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Projected Labour seats has dropped from 369 to 362 in just 24 hours with UKPollingReport's forecast.

    https://pollingreport.uk/seats

    Must be a reflection of a small uptick in the Tory share in many recent opinion polls.

    320, here we come....
    Oh dear, one or two getting a bit excited on here tonight. A swing in a by-election, a win in Scotland and a couple of not-quite-so-bad polls and suddenly Sunak will be Prime Minister until 2029,

    I'll have some of what you're smoking or drinking.

    Techne has the Conservatives AND Labour up one point so well within MoE while YouGov has a four point rise but that poll last week looked a big outlier and so it proved - Labour also up one and the combined LD/Green/Reform number down three so tiny moves but of course if you're desperate for good news you'll grab anything that comes past. Survation has the Conservatives AND Labour up three each so perhaps another outlier.

    Yes, some of the really big leads of the Truss/Kwarteng period have passed but the polls continue to show Labour leads between 15 and 20 points.
    In 2017 and 2015 it was Survation who were right and the other pollsters who were wrong
    Survation's data tables show a 15.5% swing from Conservative to Labour in England so that would mean the Conservative Parliamentary party down to around 170 seats and that's before any tactical voting.
    Which would still be higher than the number of seats they won in 1997 and 2001 as I said.

    Tactical voting is also clearly down now Rishi has replaced Boris and Truss
  • ReedReed Posts: 152

    Reed said:

    These are not conspiracy theorists these are the principle opinion leaders of Europe. Now let us have constructive argument.

    Ok, I’ll bite. West doesn’t support Ukraine, Ukraine falls. Who is next? Baltic states? Poland? Keep going. USSR empire once included Berlin. Why stop there?
    Putin is acting as badly as Hitler. If the French and British had marched when Hitler went into the Rhineland, he would likely have lost power, meaning no WW2.
    Sometimes the right thing to do is act. This is one such occasion.
    But i thought the russian army wasuseless. So how can it threaten a Nato country like Poland. By the way im very sympathetic to Ukraine but we also need realpolitik.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    The greatest geopolitical error in 2 centuries Interesting and something to debate.

    We’ll see which leader ends up being tried for war crimes. Hint, it won’t be Biden, Johnson, Schroder, Sunak, Macron, Zelenski…
    Well i always defer to pb experts on these matters.
    Why? I thought you wanted a debate? Weird.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Reed said:

    This is very interesting from John Mappin. Watch the video.

    VITAL BRIEFING FROM SWITZERLAND FROM AN ALPINE EYRIE. “The principal opinion formers of Europe have now concluded unequivocally that the West’s misadventure in supporting the Ukraine has been one of the greatest geopolitical errors of this and probably the previous century. As you will have noticed principal banks around the world are failing, even Credit Suisse, one if the more stable banks has had to request additional collateral from the Swiss government and all of this, directly or indirectly, is as a result of war mongers, those who profit from war, instigating the provocation of Presidnet Putin in relation to the Ukraine and beyond. It’s very obvious that President Putin has been extremely patient with the west and has dealt with the matter in an entirely moderate way and in a way that is not taking advantage of his position. But there is no question that the confidence in what the west is doing in Ukraine is now finished and that the out come will not be as the western media is presenting.

    https://twitter.com/JohnMappin/status/1636520389332332555?s=20

    It took you a while:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4339105#Comment_4339105
    Well spotted, from two days ago.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    DougSeal said:

    MikeL said:

    Wiki graph just updated for latest polls.

    Big picture - Lab still flat at 47% but clear Con move upwards - previously 26%, now 28%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    To my untrained eye that movement looks like an LD to Con swing.
    The LDs are certainly doing a good job of being almost invisible atm.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    These are not conspiracy theorists these are the principle opinion leaders of Europe. Now let us have constructive argument.

    Ok, I’ll bite. West doesn’t support Ukraine, Ukraine falls. Who is next? Baltic states? Poland? Keep going. USSR empire once included Berlin. Why stop there?
    Putin is acting as badly as Hitler. If the French and British had marched when Hitler went into the Rhineland, he would likely have lost power, meaning no WW2.
    Sometimes the right thing to do is act. This is one such occasion.
    But i thought the russian army wasuseless. So how can it threaten a Nato country like Poland. By the way im very sympathetic to Ukraine but we also need realpolitik.
    It might be useless but without Western arms, it would have been able to defeat Ukraine. And then waht? Bullies need to be stood up to.
    Easy for to say, comfortable in Southern England. Doesn’t make it any less true.
  • ReedReed Posts: 152
    I see the bankers are behaving just the same as before.

    Ex-Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker jets to Hawaii after collapse. He cashed in 12,500 shares for nearly $3.5 million just two weeks before the firm went under.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,265

    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    ydoethur said:

    Reed said:

    geoffw said:

    Re: "Reed" - perhaps worth noting, that Reed College in Portland, Oregon was alma mater of John Reed, author of "Ten Days That Shook the World" who died and was buried in Moscow in 1920, in Red Square just a kopeck's throw from Mad Vlad the Elder.

    Coincidence? Conspiracy? Kismet? Or more Kremlin Bullshit?

    A good u/g university friend in the 1960s spent an academic year on an exchange at Reed.
    I note that John Reed is not mentioned in the Wiki list of famous Reed alumni
    Reed said:

    Nigelb said:

    Reed said:

    Love how me talking aboutbyhe banking system has me accused of being a russian troll. Or was it my comments on universities im confused lol .

    Still no "source" for that "tweet" which "you" posted?
    ChatFSB ?
    Ok guys heres the source. To be fair i think the source has a certain "angle" on things. Doesnt mean they are wrong though. Watch the video. Its based on what Yellen said when they were questioned in congress.

    https://twitter.com/BernieSpofforth/status/1636765921434804225?s=20

    Janet Yellen is worryingly unconvincing in her reply to the Oklahoma senator about the knock-on consequences for community banks.

    Basically Yellen was saying the deposits of systematically unimportant banks wont be guaranteed. Hence the danger of a run on the regional banks.
    Do you mean 'systemically unimportant banks?' Or do they fail according to rota?
    No, they fail when The Chairman presses the buttons on his control panel at the meeting. The one where we give the Illuminati their marching orders.

    image
    What public school did you go to by the way.
    Колыма́
    You know most posters engage on here in a sensible constructive way. You never do. Why is that. Like i say you have all the hallmarks of a public schoolboy atrempting to display social superiority with sarcastic putdowns.
    I'm unsure which PB poster you're referring to: we all have the hallmarks of public schoolboys atrempting to display social superiority with sarcastic putdowns. Even Malc.
    Yes but most on here at least attempt some constructive argument. Malmesbury never does for some reason.
    Malmesbury's rapidly becoming a much-loved PB institution, a bit like syphilis in a St Petersburg office - but without the embarrassment, lasting sense of shame and excruciating agony. Except when he goes over the top in praising Musk... ;)
    Interesting - a comparison to syphilis, but apparently praise. This maybe unique in the history of the internet.
  • ReedReed Posts: 152
    That looks like insider trading by Greg Becker.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    Reed said:

    These are not conspiracy theorists these are the principle opinion leaders of Europe. Now let us have constructive argument.

    Do you like piggies Reed? I bloody love them, and I want to get a mini pig breed for our place, which I am sure I can properly house train.



    But my dear GF says no, you can’t have a pig living in a plush third floor Chelsea flat!

    But plush Chelsea flats housed roman abramovich for all those many years 😤
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,265
    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    These are not conspiracy theorists these are the principle opinion leaders of Europe. Now let us have constructive argument.

    Ok, I’ll bite. West doesn’t support Ukraine, Ukraine falls. Who is next? Baltic states? Poland? Keep going. USSR empire once included Berlin. Why stop there?
    Putin is acting as badly as Hitler. If the French and British had marched when Hitler went into the Rhineland, he would likely have lost power, meaning no WW2.
    Sometimes the right thing to do is act. This is one such occasion.
    But i thought the russian army wasuseless. So how can it threaten a Nato country like Poland. By the way im very sympathetic to Ukraine but we also need realpolitik.
    Russia can *threaten* NATO countries.

    However, due to chronic corruption, incompetence and pollution of vital bodily essence, Putin can't get his Mighty Weapons.... up.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,265

    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    The greatest geopolitical error in 2 centuries Interesting and something to debate.

    We’ll see which leader ends up being tried for war crimes. Hint, it won’t be Biden, Johnson, Schroder, Sunak, Macron, Zelenski…
    Well i always defer to pb experts on these matters.
    Why? I thought you wanted a debate? Weird.
    We are all Master Debaters, here.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,590
    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    These are not conspiracy theorists these are the principle opinion leaders of Europe. Now let us have constructive argument.

    Ok, I’ll bite. West doesn’t support Ukraine, Ukraine falls. Who is next? Baltic states? Poland? Keep going. USSR empire once included Berlin. Why stop there?
    Putin is acting as badly as Hitler. If the French and British had marched when Hitler went into the Rhineland, he would likely have lost power, meaning no WW2.
    Sometimes the right thing to do is act. This is one such occasion.
    But i thought the russian army wasuseless. So how can it threaten a Nato country like Poland. By the way im very sympathetic to Ukraine but we also need realpolitik.
    The Russian army is large, and the will of its leadership to send young men to their doom sadly seems endless. Allow Russia a few years to rebuild, and they will find a reason why the Baltic and/or eastern European states are a threat to them - and uniquely they have the right to control them.

    'Realpolitik' was used as an excuse after Litvinenko. After Georgia. After Crimea. After Donbass. After MH17. After Salisbury. And each time, Putin went a little further.

    What makes you think he'll change?
  • I reckon with Vladimir Putin being such a gay icon, Russia will have so many homosexuals in the next decade.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited March 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    DougSeal said:

    MikeL said:

    Wiki graph just updated for latest polls.

    Big picture - Lab still flat at 47% but clear Con move upwards - previously 26%, now 28%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    To my untrained eye that movement looks like an LD to Con swing.
    The LDs are certainly doing a good job of being almost invisible atm.
    There has clearly been some movement from LD to Conservative now Rishi has replaced Boris and Truss. The LDs are being squeezed from both ends, in 2019 they got 12% but have lost voters to Starmer and Sunak since.

    The redwall voters Boris won though are firmly back in the Labour column still it seems, as well as some voters who voted for Blair, have voted Conservative since and have now gone back to Labour
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,590

    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    ydoethur said:

    Reed said:

    geoffw said:

    Re: "Reed" - perhaps worth noting, that Reed College in Portland, Oregon was alma mater of John Reed, author of "Ten Days That Shook the World" who died and was buried in Moscow in 1920, in Red Square just a kopeck's throw from Mad Vlad the Elder.

    Coincidence? Conspiracy? Kismet? Or more Kremlin Bullshit?

    A good u/g university friend in the 1960s spent an academic year on an exchange at Reed.
    I note that John Reed is not mentioned in the Wiki list of famous Reed alumni
    Reed said:

    Nigelb said:

    Reed said:

    Love how me talking aboutbyhe banking system has me accused of being a russian troll. Or was it my comments on universities im confused lol .

    Still no "source" for that "tweet" which "you" posted?
    ChatFSB ?
    Ok guys heres the source. To be fair i think the source has a certain "angle" on things. Doesnt mean they are wrong though. Watch the video. Its based on what Yellen said when they were questioned in congress.

    https://twitter.com/BernieSpofforth/status/1636765921434804225?s=20

    Janet Yellen is worryingly unconvincing in her reply to the Oklahoma senator about the knock-on consequences for community banks.

    Basically Yellen was saying the deposits of systematically unimportant banks wont be guaranteed. Hence the danger of a run on the regional banks.
    Do you mean 'systemically unimportant banks?' Or do they fail according to rota?
    No, they fail when The Chairman presses the buttons on his control panel at the meeting. The one where we give the Illuminati their marching orders.

    image
    What public school did you go to by the way.
    Колыма́
    You know most posters engage on here in a sensible constructive way. You never do. Why is that. Like i say you have all the hallmarks of a public schoolboy atrempting to display social superiority with sarcastic putdowns.
    I'm unsure which PB poster you're referring to: we all have the hallmarks of public schoolboys atrempting to display social superiority with sarcastic putdowns. Even Malc.
    Yes but most on here at least attempt some constructive argument. Malmesbury never does for some reason.
    Malmesbury's rapidly becoming a much-loved PB institution, a bit like syphilis in a St Petersburg office - but without the embarrassment, lasting sense of shame and excruciating agony. Except when he goes over the top in praising Musk... ;)
    Interesting - a comparison to syphilis, but apparently praise. This maybe unique in the history of the internet.
    Hey, I'm tired and am two glasses of wine down after a week of abstinence. I think I know what I meant to say... ;)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Beginning to believe, that from Mad Vlad's viewpoint, "Reed" might be better deployed as a Morale Officer for Wagner Group in the Bakhmut sector?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    I reckon with Vladimir Putin being such a gay icon, Russia will have so many homosexuals in the next decade.


    They won't be able to get married though, homosexual marriage is still not legal in Russia, nor Ukraine either for that matter
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,265

    Reed said:

    These are not conspiracy theorists these are the principle opinion leaders of Europe. Now let us have constructive argument.

    Do you like piggies Reed? I bloody love them, and I want to get a mini pig breed for our place, which I am sure I can properly house train.



    But my dear GF says no, you can’t have a pig living in a plush third floor Chelsea flat!

    But plush Chelsea flats housed roman abramovich for all those many years 😤
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xUynRdzzsM
  • ReedReed Posts: 152

    Reed said:

    These are not conspiracy theorists these are the principle opinion leaders of Europe. Now let us have constructive argument.

    Do you like piggies Reed? I bloody love them, and I want to get a mini pig breed for our place, which I am sure I can properly house train.



    But my dear GF says no, you can’t have a pig living in a plush third floor Chelsea flat!

    But plush Chelsea flats housed roman abramovich for all those many years 😤
    Ah personal attacks. I love them. It means ive hit a nerve.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,265

    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    ydoethur said:

    Reed said:

    geoffw said:

    Re: "Reed" - perhaps worth noting, that Reed College in Portland, Oregon was alma mater of John Reed, author of "Ten Days That Shook the World" who died and was buried in Moscow in 1920, in Red Square just a kopeck's throw from Mad Vlad the Elder.

    Coincidence? Conspiracy? Kismet? Or more Kremlin Bullshit?

    A good u/g university friend in the 1960s spent an academic year on an exchange at Reed.
    I note that John Reed is not mentioned in the Wiki list of famous Reed alumni
    Reed said:

    Nigelb said:

    Reed said:

    Love how me talking aboutbyhe banking system has me accused of being a russian troll. Or was it my comments on universities im confused lol .

    Still no "source" for that "tweet" which "you" posted?
    ChatFSB ?
    Ok guys heres the source. To be fair i think the source has a certain "angle" on things. Doesnt mean they are wrong though. Watch the video. Its based on what Yellen said when they were questioned in congress.

    https://twitter.com/BernieSpofforth/status/1636765921434804225?s=20

    Janet Yellen is worryingly unconvincing in her reply to the Oklahoma senator about the knock-on consequences for community banks.

    Basically Yellen was saying the deposits of systematically unimportant banks wont be guaranteed. Hence the danger of a run on the regional banks.
    Do you mean 'systemically unimportant banks?' Or do they fail according to rota?
    No, they fail when The Chairman presses the buttons on his control panel at the meeting. The one where we give the Illuminati their marching orders.

    image
    What public school did you go to by the way.
    Колыма́
    You know most posters engage on here in a sensible constructive way. You never do. Why is that. Like i say you have all the hallmarks of a public schoolboy atrempting to display social superiority with sarcastic putdowns.
    I'm unsure which PB poster you're referring to: we all have the hallmarks of public schoolboys atrempting to display social superiority with sarcastic putdowns. Even Malc.
    Yes but most on here at least attempt some constructive argument. Malmesbury never does for some reason.
    Malmesbury's rapidly becoming a much-loved PB institution, a bit like syphilis in a St Petersburg office - but without the embarrassment, lasting sense of shame and excruciating agony. Except when he goes over the top in praising Musk... ;)
    Interesting - a comparison to syphilis, but apparently praise. This maybe unique in the history of the internet.
    Hey, I'm tired and am two glasses of wine down after a week of abstinence. I think I know what I meant to say... ;)
    To manage to liken someone to an STD but make it a compliment - that's genius.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,265
    HYUFD said:

    I reckon with Vladimir Putin being such a gay icon, Russia will have so many homosexuals in the next decade.


    They won't be able to get married though, homosexual marriage is still not legal in Russia, nor Ukraine either for that matter
    State sanctioned homophobia is usually a cover for lots of er... action. Historically.
  • ReedReed Posts: 152

    HYUFD said:

    I reckon with Vladimir Putin being such a gay icon, Russia will have so many homosexuals in the next decade.


    They won't be able to get married though, homosexual marriage is still not legal in Russia, nor Ukraine either for that matter
    State sanctioned homophobia is usually a cover for lots of er... action. Historically.
    I bet you got some action at public school.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Projected Labour seats has dropped from 369 to 362 in just 24 hours with UKPollingReport's forecast.

    https://pollingreport.uk/seats

    Must be a reflection of a small uptick in the Tory share in many recent opinion polls.

    320, here we come....
    Oh dear, one or two getting a bit excited on here tonight. A swing in a by-election, a win in Scotland and a couple of not-quite-so-bad polls and suddenly Sunak will be Prime Minister until 2029,

    I'll have some of what you're smoking or drinking.

    Techne has the Conservatives AND Labour up one point so well within MoE while YouGov has a four point rise but that poll last week looked a big outlier and so it proved - Labour also up one and the combined LD/Green/Reform number down three so tiny moves but of course if you're desperate for good news you'll grab anything that comes past. Survation has the Conservatives AND Labour up three each so perhaps another outlier.

    Yes, some of the really big leads of the Truss/Kwarteng period have passed but the polls continue to show Labour leads between 15 and 20 points.
    In 2017 and 2015 it was Survation who were right and the other pollsters who were wrong
    Survation's data tables show a 15.5% swing from Conservative to Labour in England so that would mean the Conservative Parliamentary party down to around 170 seats and that's before any tactical voting.
    Which would still be higher than the number of seats they won in 1997 and 2001 as I said.

    Tactical voting is also clearly down now Rishi has replaced Boris and Truss
    I think if you're comparing 170 seats positively to 165 or 166, fine. The Conservatives went into opposition for 13 years after the 1997 defeat so we could easily see a three-term Labour Government which would mean the Conservatives would be back in 2039.
  • Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    I reckon with Vladimir Putin being such a gay icon, Russia will have so many homosexuals in the next decade.


    They won't be able to get married though, homosexual marriage is still not legal in Russia, nor Ukraine either for that matter
    State sanctioned homophobia is usually a cover for lots of er... action. Historically.
    I bet you got some action at public school.
    I was head boy.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    These are not conspiracy theorists these are the principle opinion leaders of Europe. Now let us have constructive argument.

    Do you like piggies Reed? I bloody love them, and I want to get a mini pig breed for our place, which I am sure I can properly house train.



    But my dear GF says no, you can’t have a pig living in a plush third floor Chelsea flat!

    But plush Chelsea flats housed roman abramovich for all those many years 😤
    Ah personal attacks. I love them. It means ive hit a nerve.
    So you ARE Roman Abramovich! 🫢

    Sorry to hear you have fallen on hard times.

    PS don’t go near any windows
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,265

    I reckon with Vladimir Putin being such a gay icon, Russia will have so many homosexuals in the next decade.


    That's good. This is better

    image
  • ReedReed Posts: 152

    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    I reckon with Vladimir Putin being such a gay icon, Russia will have so many homosexuals in the next decade.


    They won't be able to get married though, homosexual marriage is still not legal in Russia, nor Ukraine either for that matter
    State sanctioned homophobia is usually a cover for lots of er... action. Historically.
    I bet you got some action at public school.
    I was head boy.
    You would have had your pick then.
  • Reed said:

    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    I reckon with Vladimir Putin being such a gay icon, Russia will have so many homosexuals in the next decade.


    They won't be able to get married though, homosexual marriage is still not legal in Russia, nor Ukraine either for that matter
    State sanctioned homophobia is usually a cover for lots of er... action. Historically.
    I bet you got some action at public school.
    I was head boy.
    You would have had your pick then.
    I was a good Muslim boy at school.
  • ReedReed Posts: 152

    I reckon with Vladimir Putin being such a gay icon, Russia will have so many homosexuals in the next decade.


    That's good. This is better

    image
    You really are obsessed with the man. Does he make you feel inferior.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,590

    Reed said:

    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    I reckon with Vladimir Putin being such a gay icon, Russia will have so many homosexuals in the next decade.


    They won't be able to get married though, homosexual marriage is still not legal in Russia, nor Ukraine either for that matter
    State sanctioned homophobia is usually a cover for lots of er... action. Historically.
    I bet you got some action at public school.
    I was head boy.
    You would have had your pick then.
    I was a good Muslim boy at school.
    Which school though? Pre-school? ;)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,265
    Reed said:

    I reckon with Vladimir Putin being such a gay icon, Russia will have so many homosexuals in the next decade.


    That's good. This is better

    image
    You really are obsessed with the man. Does he make you feel inferior.
    Collecting gay iconography is a hobby.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,994
    Come back DJ41, all is forgiven.

    By the way when are we letting Leon, Horse and Stuart back in?
  • Reed said:

    Reed said:

    HYUFD said:

    I reckon with Vladimir Putin being such a gay icon, Russia will have so many homosexuals in the next decade.


    They won't be able to get married though, homosexual marriage is still not legal in Russia, nor Ukraine either for that matter
    State sanctioned homophobia is usually a cover for lots of er... action. Historically.
    I bet you got some action at public school.
    I was head boy.
    You would have had your pick then.
    I was a good Muslim boy at school.
    Which school though? Pre-school? ;)
    All the way from nursery, prep school. and the big school.

    It was at university when I discovered girls that I fell off the good Muslim wagon.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    DougSeal said:

    MikeL said:

    Wiki graph just updated for latest polls.

    Big picture - Lab still flat at 47% but clear Con move upwards - previously 26%, now 28%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    To my untrained eye that movement looks like an LD to Con swing.
    The LDs are certainly doing a good job of being almost invisible atm.
    There has clearly been some movement from LD to Conservative now Rishi has replaced Boris and Truss. The LDs are being squeezed from both ends, in 2019 they got 12% but have lost voters to Starmer and Sunak since.

    The redwall voters Boris won though are firmly back in the Labour column still it seems, as well as some voters who voted for Blair, have voted Conservative since and have now gone back to Labour
    The Redfield & Wilton Blue Wall polling earlier in the week showed a big jump in LD support - it may be more interesting and informative to look at the detail rather than the broad brush.

    You and I both know the real story of May is going to be the Labour gains from the Conservatives and others across the country - last time, the LDs gained over 700 seats but Independents gained over 600 so Conservative losses were nearly as much to Independents and Residents as to LDs. Westminster polling isn't the same as local polling but Labour is in a much stronger position than 2019 when they polled 26.5% of actual votes cast - 25% of all votes went to parties other than Conservative, Labour and LD.

    Using national polling to extrapolate local results might make you sleep better at night but it's a long way from being an exact science.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,999
    Reed's appearance here reminds me of so many old jokes. For example:

    In 1987, Boris and Ivan are discussing the state of the USSR. Ivan says, "You know, I htink this must be the richest nation on earth."

    "Why do you say that?

    Because for 70 years everyone has been stealing from it, and there is still stuff left to steal."

    There are, I am sure, creative folks here who can modernize that joke for all of us.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Seattle Times ($) - How Silicon Valley Bank echoes WaMu and the Panic of 2008

    Jon Talton, business columnist - [M]ost news stories labeled it the second largest “bank” failure in American history, after Seattle’s Washington Mutual in 2008. But that’s incorrect. Even though WaMu acted like a bank in many ways, it was a savings and loan.

    What we’ve witnessed in recent days is the largest bank failure and the second-largest banking failure. Silicon Valley was the nation’s 16th largest bank and, although it was state-chartered, its chief executive sat on the board of the Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco.

    I’m not pettifogging. Washington Mutual lacked the more rigorous regulators, along with the regulatory and political protection of a bank. When it came to grief from doling out too many subprime housing loans, no one in power was there to bail it out from a run on the institution. . . .

    WaMu’s shareholders were wiped out and thousands of jobs were lost in downtown Seattle. Beneath the onion wrapping of those noxious subprime loans was a healthy banking institution. . . .

    If Washington Mutual could have been saved in 2008, Seattle could have retained a major banking institution and its place as a banking center. But it was not to be.

    My second thought about Silicon Valley Bank was about how little was learned from the Panic of 2008 and the Great Recession that followed — and the power of the bank lobby.

    The loose lending practices, handsomely rewarded by Wall Street, of Killinger and other bankers, was the direct outgrowth of deregulation, specifically the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999.

    This law was enacted in 1933, 90 years ago, after the bank crisis that helped bring on the Great Depression. It separated commercial banks from investment banks among other new rules. . . .

    And for decades, Glass-Steagall kept the banking system safe and sound, even though it was gradually whittled away at the margins. It certainly wouldn’t have allowed commercial banks to invest in the derivatives and other exotic pieces of financial engineering that followed its repeal. Or the lap dog regulators that allowed them to hide on balance sheets until the crisis.

    After the Panic of 2008 nearly imploded the banking system, Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Act, which tightened bank regulation. But it was no modernized Glass-Steagall and its toughest provisions were loosened in 2018, encouraged by President Donald Trump.

    Those seeking schadenfreude will be pleased to know that the bill’s co-sponsor, former Democratic Rep. Barney Frank, was a paid board member of Signature Bank, which dabbled in cryptocurrencies and was shut down soon after Silicon Valley Bank. . . .

    [T]he failure to bring the rule of law to the “banksters” after the Panic of 2008 seeded today’s regulatory failure.

    The Justice Department and SEC are reportedly investigating Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse.

    Will the outcome be different this time?

    I wouldn’t bank on it.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,799

    rcs1000 said:

    Do we possibly have yet another one of Mad Vlad's finest bots on the job here on PB?

    Perhaps unsurprisingly, their IP address shows up in the dnsbl.spfbl.net list as compromised.

    Which is a shame. But I say we let them stay. Who's with me?
    Please let they stay.

    They are funny, harmless, and it keeps them away from causing mischief elsewhere.
    Well, you will be the one tasked with taking it to The Hague in due course....
    I like this one. It can punctuate. And it started reasonably conversationally before moving on to "let's let Russia win".

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,634
    @nypost
    Biden jokes he’s ‘really not Irish’ because he’s sober, doesn’t have relatives ‘in jail’


    https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1636813878624485377
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,265

    Reed's appearance here reminds me of so many old jokes. For example:

    In 1987, Boris and Ivan are discussing the state of the USSR. Ivan says, "You know, I htink this must be the richest nation on earth."

    "Why do you say that?

    Because for 70 years everyone has been stealing from it, and there is still stuff left to steal."

    There are, I am sure, creative folks here who can modernize that joke for all of us.


    He's been waiting for hours, but just as he reaches the front of the line, the woman inside says, "sorry, out for today," and slams the door shut.

    Naturally, he's apoplectic. He starts shouting- "So this is communism, eh?! I fought in the war against fascism, I've worked for the state my whole life, and I can't even get a loaf of bread?!"

    An official-looking man pulls him aside. "Comrade, you have to be careful talking like that, you could get in trouble. Why, even just a few years ago…", he mimics a gunshot to the head.

    The man goes home despondent. As he walks inside, he says to his wife, "Things are getting very bad out there."

    "What's that? Were they out of bread again?" She asks.

    "Worse, they were out of bullets."
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Projected Labour seats has dropped from 369 to 362 in just 24 hours with UKPollingReport's forecast.

    https://pollingreport.uk/seats

    Must be a reflection of a small uptick in the Tory share in many recent opinion polls.

    320, here we come....
    Oh dear, one or two getting a bit excited on here tonight. A swing in a by-election, a win in Scotland and a couple of not-quite-so-bad polls and suddenly Sunak will be Prime Minister until 2029,

    I'll have some of what you're smoking or drinking.

    Techne has the Conservatives AND Labour up one point so well within MoE while YouGov has a four point rise but that poll last week looked a big outlier and so it proved - Labour also up one and the combined LD/Green/Reform number down three so tiny moves but of course if you're desperate for good news you'll grab anything that comes past. Survation has the Conservatives AND Labour up three each so perhaps another outlier.

    Yes, some of the really big leads of the Truss/Kwarteng period have passed but the polls continue to show Labour leads between 15 and 20 points.
    In 2017 and 2015 it was Survation who were right and the other pollsters who were wrong
    Survation's data tables show a 15.5% swing from Conservative to Labour in England so that would mean the Conservative Parliamentary party down to around 170 seats and that's before any tactical voting.
    Which would still be higher than the number of seats they won in 1997 and 2001 as I said.

    Tactical voting is also clearly down now Rishi has replaced Boris and Truss
    I think if you're comparing 170 seats positively to 165 or 166, fine. The Conservatives went into opposition for 13 years after the 1997 defeat so we could easily see a three-term Labour Government which would mean the Conservatives would be back in 2039.
    They also went into the 1997 election without a majority, go into this one with a 80 seat landslide, so would be one of the most historic of turnarounds.

    Rishi is just not moving voter backing back to where it was under Boris. The week of a continued austerity budget he has moved the national grid to heat his swimming pool. The coalition Boris built can never be achieved by Rishi Sunak.
  • ReedReed Posts: 152

    Seattle Times ($) - How Silicon Valley Bank echoes WaMu and the Panic of 2008

    Jon Talton, business columnist - [M]ost news stories labeled it the second largest “bank” failure in American history, after Seattle’s Washington Mutual in 2008. But that’s incorrect. Even though WaMu acted like a bank in many ways, it was a savings and loan.

    What we’ve witnessed in recent days is the largest bank failure and the second-largest banking failure. Silicon Valley was the nation’s 16th largest bank and, although it was state-chartered, its chief executive sat on the board of the Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco.

    I’m not pettifogging. Washington Mutual lacked the more rigorous regulators, along with the regulatory and political protection of a bank. When it came to grief from doling out too many subprime housing loans, no one in power was there to bail it out from a run on the institution. . . .

    WaMu’s shareholders were wiped out and thousands of jobs were lost in downtown Seattle. Beneath the onion wrapping of those noxious subprime loans was a healthy banking institution. . . .

    If Washington Mutual could have been saved in 2008, Seattle could have retained a major banking institution and its place as a banking center. But it was not to be.

    My second thought about Silicon Valley Bank was about how little was learned from the Panic of 2008 and the Great Recession that followed — and the power of the bank lobby.

    The loose lending practices, handsomely rewarded by Wall Street, of Killinger and other bankers, was the direct outgrowth of deregulation, specifically the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999.

    This law was enacted in 1933, 90 years ago, after the bank crisis that helped bring on the Great Depression. It separated commercial banks from investment banks among other new rules. . . .

    And for decades, Glass-Steagall kept the banking system safe and sound, even though it was gradually whittled away at the margins. It certainly wouldn’t have allowed commercial banks to invest in the derivatives and other exotic pieces of financial engineering that followed its repeal. Or the lap dog regulators that allowed them to hide on balance sheets until the crisis.

    After the Panic of 2008 nearly imploded the banking system, Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Act, which tightened bank regulation. But it was no modernized Glass-Steagall and its toughest provisions were loosened in 2018, encouraged by President Donald Trump.

    Those seeking schadenfreude will be pleased to know that the bill’s co-sponsor, former Democratic Rep. Barney Frank, was a paid board member of Signature Bank, which dabbled in cryptocurrencies and was shut down soon after Silicon Valley Bank. . . .

    [T]he failure to bring the rule of law to the “banksters” after the Panic of 2008 seeded today’s regulatory failure.

    The Justice Department and SEC are reportedly investigating Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse.

    Will the outcome be different this time?

    I wouldn’t bank on it.

    Yes many bankers should have been jailed in 2008. They werent. They got bailed out and never learnt their lesson. A country like China or Russia would have imposed harsh punishments on the bankers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Projected Labour seats has dropped from 369 to 362 in just 24 hours with UKPollingReport's forecast.

    https://pollingreport.uk/seats

    Must be a reflection of a small uptick in the Tory share in many recent opinion polls.

    320, here we come....
    Oh dear, one or two getting a bit excited on here tonight. A swing in a by-election, a win in Scotland and a couple of not-quite-so-bad polls and suddenly Sunak will be Prime Minister until 2029,

    I'll have some of what you're smoking or drinking.

    Techne has the Conservatives AND Labour up one point so well within MoE while YouGov has a four point rise but that poll last week looked a big outlier and so it proved - Labour also up one and the combined LD/Green/Reform number down three so tiny moves but of course if you're desperate for good news you'll grab anything that comes past. Survation has the Conservatives AND Labour up three each so perhaps another outlier.

    Yes, some of the really big leads of the Truss/Kwarteng period have passed but the polls continue to show Labour leads between 15 and 20 points.
    In 2017 and 2015 it was Survation who were right and the other pollsters who were wrong
    Survation's data tables show a 15.5% swing from Conservative to Labour in England so that would mean the Conservative Parliamentary party down to around 170 seats and that's before any tactical voting.
    Which would still be higher than the number of seats they won in 1997 and 2001 as I said.

    Tactical voting is also clearly down now Rishi has replaced Boris and Truss
    I think if you're comparing 170 seats positively to 165 or 166, fine. The Conservatives went into opposition for 13 years after the 1997 defeat so we could easily see a three-term Labour Government which would mean the Conservatives would be back in 2039.
    They also went into the 1997 election without a majority, go into this one with a 80 seat landslide, so would be one of the most historic of turnarounds.

    Rishi is just not moving voter backing back to where it was under Boris. The week of a continued austerity budget he has moved the national grid to heat his swimming pool. The coalition Boris built can never be achieved by Rishi Sunak.
    On the other hand no party has won a 5th consecutive general election since universal suffrage in 1918.

    The economy is also in a worse situation than 1997 which would then be Labour's problem if they took power
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,999
    One thing Jon Talton of the Seattle Times doesn't mention is that before its collapse, there were many inside Washington Mutual who knew of its problems. A newspaper that was better on covering business than the Seattle Times could have found that out, and revealed those problems, perhaps even in time to save WaMu.

    (As I recall Talton was not working for the Times then, so he doesn't have and personal blame for that failure, but his columns don't make me think he would have done better.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited March 2023
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    DougSeal said:

    MikeL said:

    Wiki graph just updated for latest polls.

    Big picture - Lab still flat at 47% but clear Con move upwards - previously 26%, now 28%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    To my untrained eye that movement looks like an LD to Con swing.
    The LDs are certainly doing a good job of being almost invisible atm.
    There has clearly been some movement from LD to Conservative now Rishi has replaced Boris and Truss. The LDs are being squeezed from both ends, in 2019 they got 12% but have lost voters to Starmer and Sunak since.

    The redwall voters Boris won though are firmly back in the Labour column still it seems, as well as some voters who voted for Blair, have voted Conservative since and have now gone back to Labour
    The Redfield & Wilton Blue Wall polling earlier in the week showed a big jump in LD support - it may be more interesting and informative to look at the detail rather than the broad brush.

    You and I both know the real story of May is going to be the Labour gains from the Conservatives and others across the country - last time, the LDs gained over 700 seats but Independents gained over 600 so Conservative losses were nearly as much to Independents and Residents as to LDs. Westminster polling isn't the same as local polling but Labour is in a much stronger position than 2019 when they polled 26.5% of actual votes cast - 25% of all votes went to parties other than Conservative, Labour and LD.

    Using national polling to extrapolate local results might make you sleep better at night but it's a long way from being an exact science.
    The Bluewall polling had the LDs 3rd there despite the fact they were 2nd in many of those seats in 2019.

    Some of the LD and Independent seats will go back to the Tories, see the big swing from LD to Conservative in South Cambridgeshire last night. Even if Labour make gains from the Conservatives and LDs
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Reed said:

    Seattle Times ($) - How Silicon Valley Bank echoes WaMu and the Panic of 2008

    Jon Talton, business columnist - [M]ost news stories labeled it the second largest “bank” failure in American history, after Seattle’s Washington Mutual in 2008. But that’s incorrect. Even though WaMu acted like a bank in many ways, it was a savings and loan.

    What we’ve witnessed in recent days is the largest bank failure and the second-largest banking failure. Silicon Valley was the nation’s 16th largest bank and, although it was state-chartered, its chief executive sat on the board of the Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco.

    I’m not pettifogging. Washington Mutual lacked the more rigorous regulators, along with the regulatory and political protection of a bank. When it came to grief from doling out too many subprime housing loans, no one in power was there to bail it out from a run on the institution. . . .

    WaMu’s shareholders were wiped out and thousands of jobs were lost in downtown Seattle. Beneath the onion wrapping of those noxious subprime loans was a healthy banking institution. . . .

    If Washington Mutual could have been saved in 2008, Seattle could have retained a major banking institution and its place as a banking center. But it was not to be.

    My second thought about Silicon Valley Bank was about how little was learned from the Panic of 2008 and the Great Recession that followed — and the power of the bank lobby.

    The loose lending practices, handsomely rewarded by Wall Street, of Killinger and other bankers, was the direct outgrowth of deregulation, specifically the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999.

    This law was enacted in 1933, 90 years ago, after the bank crisis that helped bring on the Great Depression. It separated commercial banks from investment banks among other new rules. . . .

    And for decades, Glass-Steagall kept the banking system safe and sound, even though it was gradually whittled away at the margins. It certainly wouldn’t have allowed commercial banks to invest in the derivatives and other exotic pieces of financial engineering that followed its repeal. Or the lap dog regulators that allowed them to hide on balance sheets until the crisis.

    After the Panic of 2008 nearly imploded the banking system, Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Act, which tightened bank regulation. But it was no modernized Glass-Steagall and its toughest provisions were loosened in 2018, encouraged by President Donald Trump.

    Those seeking schadenfreude will be pleased to know that the bill’s co-sponsor, former Democratic Rep. Barney Frank, was a paid board member of Signature Bank, which dabbled in cryptocurrencies and was shut down soon after Silicon Valley Bank. . . .

    [T]he failure to bring the rule of law to the “banksters” after the Panic of 2008 seeded today’s regulatory failure.

    The Justice Department and SEC are reportedly investigating Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse.

    Will the outcome be different this time?

    I wouldn’t bank on it.

    Yes many bankers should have been jailed in 2008. They werent. They got bailed out and never learnt their lesson. A country like China or Russia would have imposed harsh punishments on the bankers.
    Do you believe that people should go to jail "just because", or do you think it's a good idea that they are found guilty in a court of breaking a law of some kind first?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    DougSeal said:

    MikeL said:

    Wiki graph just updated for latest polls.

    Big picture - Lab still flat at 47% but clear Con move upwards - previously 26%, now 28%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    To my untrained eye that movement looks like an LD to Con swing.
    The LDs are certainly doing a good job of being almost invisible atm.
    There has clearly been some movement from LD to Conservative now Rishi has replaced Boris and Truss. The LDs are being squeezed from both ends, in 2019 they got 12% but have lost voters to Starmer and Sunak since.

    The redwall voters Boris won though are firmly back in the Labour column still it seems, as well as some voters who voted for Blair, have voted Conservative since and have now gone back to Labour
    The Redfield & Wilton Blue Wall polling earlier in the week showed a big jump in LD support - it may be more interesting and informative to look at the detail rather than the broad brush.

    You and I both know the real story of May is going to be the Labour gains from the Conservatives and others across the country - last time, the LDs gained over 700 seats but Independents gained over 600 so Conservative losses were nearly as much to Independents and Residents as to LDs. Westminster polling isn't the same as local polling but Labour is in a much stronger position than 2019 when they polled 26.5% of actual votes cast - 25% of all votes went to parties other than Conservative, Labour and LD.

    Using national polling to extrapolate local results might make you sleep better at night but it's a long way from being an exact science.
    The Bluewall polling had the LDs 3rd there despite the fact they were 2nd in many of those seats in 2019.

    Some of the LD and Independent seats will go back to the Tories, see the big swing from LD to Conservative in South Cambridgeshire last night. Even if Labour make gains from the Conservatives and LDs
    That is aggregate polling, though. It includes LD-Con marginals and Lab-Con marginals.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    MikeL said:

    Wiki graph just updated for latest polls.

    Big picture - Lab still flat at 47% but clear Con move upwards - previously 26%, now 28%.

    And no that's not a margin of error movement - because it's the average across nine or ten pollsters. But it's still only a very small reduction in the Lab lead.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    And no. That’s not a 28% vote share Tories are now back up on.

    - how the chart works is if you are 28% tonight, the 28 is not for keeps, next time you look maybe it will stop on 26 and never ever reached 28%. Looking at an uptick on edge of that voting graph is fools gold, Tory friendly/unfriendly pollsters don’t balance out over a week, hence all the droopy tits.

    month by month is stronger measurement. The only way to measure poll of polls really.
This discussion has been closed.