Labour leads by 22% in the Red Wall, enough to win ALL 40 of these seats in the next GE.Red Wall VI (5 March):Labour 51% (-4) Conservative 29% (+2)Reform UK 9% (-1)Lib Dem 6% (+2)Green 2% (-1)Plaid Cymru 1% (–)Other 2% (+1)Changes +/- 19 Febhttps://t.co/GfKKGUh5oY pic.twitter.com/7JR8MfHwAZ
Big snow event is tonight though. Probably rain on the South Coast. Inland, anything from a cm or so of slush in London to 5cm on the North and South downs, a bit more on the Chilterns, 4-5cm in the South Midlands and then some truly handy totals from Gloucs up through the Marches into central Wales. SSE winds so the best place for proper deep snow probably somewhere like the Southern and Eastern slopes of the Black Mountains.
Then moving up into Snowdonia and the high Peak in the following couple of days.
So now both those goals have been achieved and Starmer has replaced Corbyn as Labour leader and Rishi has replaced Boris as Tory leader they have gone back to Lab. Rishi might hold more bluewall Home counties and West London seats than Boris would have done, especially from the LDs but he has almost certainly lost the redwall to Labour again
Are HM Opposition in favour or against?
1. Galvanise anti-Tory tactical voting in Blue Wall seats.
2. Seriously disappoint Reform-leaning 2019 Tories in the Red Wall.
If this was the first attempt at the front end of a first Tory term I could understand it. But the same rhetoric accompanying the third piece of supposedly gamechanging legislation in three years in year 13 of Tory rule seems less smart to me.
But I guess if you have nothing, you will try anything.
The cost of repairing the underwater pipelines that carry gas from Russia to Europe has been estimated at as much as $500 million after they were damaged by explosives. Nobody claimed responsibility at the time, and while Washington now believes that an independent group was responsible, it is still not clear how the operation was carried out.
Stop the boats and Referendum on Capital Punishment will be red meat to red wall.
I expect both to be in Tory Manifesto and be rammed down peoples throats as much as the oven ready deal.
As it stands Labour won't just win the 40 red wall seats, they'll win far more than that. It'll take a very dramatic movement in the polls to change that.
At this range I usually look at the Arome model but a few other high resolution ones show something similar.
Just because it's immoral and illegal won't stop it being popular with some, unfortunately.
Represents Tories best chance of clinging on. That's how desperate it is.
Stellar company the Tories have joined.
In order to get clear blue water they need to go further given Labour are in Thatcher territory on most of the main issues
2. So we’ll likely end up with tens of thousands of people who are refugees but whose claims cannot legally be assessed and who cannot work, who have to live on minimal state support in hotels. For ever.
3. If it doesn’t actually deter all arrivals — and it won’t — then it looks completely unsustainable. The government is going to create a new, huge, ever-growing asylum backlog. Honestly, I think it’s absolutely nuts.
Take a fucking bow Rishi.
I would agree though if you said we take afghans persecuted for working with british forces because we owe them that.
7% only on economy doesn’t look too good for Labour either.
We have to remember, losing 6% of lead now and only 7% ahead on economy, we are still north country miles away from a general election.
We used to think of these seats as Labour heartlands, loyal to Labour even through the Thatcher landslides of the eighties? Why then are Tories doing so well there this week, against all these headwinds?
Why do you think Starmer is leading in the polls, it is because he is a top lawyer.
So long as you avoid looking at nations like Russia, that had the ECHR seal of approval last year. 🤦♂️
I agree with the Human Rights from the Convention. I think those rights should be protected by the UK Parliament.
I do not agree with seconding that to unelected jurists that can be swayed by Roubles.
During the war 10k made it here
Only Conservatives who want to take us back to 1950 or Victorian times are in favour of the Grammars. Modern Conservatives like David Johnson, MP for Wantage, who has written on the subject and whom I know a little, are very anti Grammars.
Or as usual are these not real Tories?
Why talk up a poll where the gap has closed so much since the last one?
Why, in this situation, are Labour not further ahead on economy?
Why, considering some of the worst headwinds any UK government have had to endure since the 70’s, is the Tory position clearly not worsening, in fact just recently seems to be advancing, such as in this poll?
I can tap out and not offer my “honest unspun take” if Admins don’t like them.
The EU spokesman has told MEPs according to briefings that the ECJ will have an important role and substantial amounts of EU law will apply to Northern Ireland. He also pointed out the Stormont brake would rarely be able to work. It seems the green lane would still be subject to EU checks and to possible EU interruption to the flow of goods. That is why I have asked the government to show us a list of the EU laws that will apply to Northern Ireland from day one of any new agreements. I have asked how many VAT and Excise rules will still constrain our tax policies, and want to know more about what information and form filling people will need to supply to allow green lane trade. It appears that EU plant and animal husbandry rules will apply. We also need to know in what circumstances the EU could suspend or modify green lane trade.
It is most important to get this right. The rest of the UK does not want to find it needs to align with the EU over tax and regulations, any more than Unionists in Northern Ireland wish to find their laws and taxes in part come from the EU where they have no vote or voice. The UK fully accepts the need to avoid a border between NI and the Republic, but also needs to avoid a border between GB and NI. Any new arrangement at the very least needs a unilateral exit route for the UK should the terms prove onerous. It remains to be seen if the Unionist parties find it acceptable so that they can rejoin the Stormont Assembly, one of the original aims of the talks.
The point I have bolded is, to me, the crux of the matter. The deal may not be great shakes itself, but any easing of intra-UK trade is to be welcomed - however, only if the agreement can be terminated freely by both parties. Otherwise, the Windsor Framework will have the binding status of an international treaty on the UK, but the EU will be able to suspend its commitments under the agreement whenever it wants to. That's not something any responsible Government would put its name to.
There’s a lot of sabotage of regime property happening on a weekly basis in Russia. Some possibly is liberal anti-Putinists but it seems a fair bit is different breeds of Russian ultra-nationalist. If Western intelligence are aware of Russian dissident groups then I assume they will be protecting their sources.
Labour - and Starmer - need to avoid getting involved in trench warfare.
In this context, I do rather wonder if the Lib Dems may surprise on the upside.
The GoodLaw chap is often whinging about judges being bullied into siding with the government, and that's the reason he loses various cases since it cannot be on the facts or law, so he should sign up to one on this from the looks of it.
There was an Immigration lawyer on Sky earlier "We have six safe 3rd countries, we need 200. They'll have to release almost all of these people in a year, to house the next 40k that come across. We were removing 50k a year, since we lost Dublin it's in the low thousands"