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We should wait before reaching polling conclusions – politicalbetting.com
We should wait before reaching polling conclusions – politicalbetting.com
It's not much of a bounce but it is one nevertheless. Sunak will hope that this is the start of something and that he can build on it over the coming months with further positive news. Labour's big poll leads are relatively new, remember. https://t.co/nGyh53rGWu
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A reminder to the country that Boris and Rishi partied whilst they locked us up.
It is only going to mean a sound drubbing as opposed to an extinction level event, however.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/mar/03/bryant-may-novelist-christopher-fowler-has-died-aged-69
SO WHAT THE FUCK IS THIS
(Davey, that is)
Britain has the Khmer Rouge of climates
LAB may well get an overall majority but those on here who think/want LAB to be 10/12/15+ points clear at the GE will be disappointed.
And all of it during lockdown. Not sure I have ever quite recovered from that. Mentally
2018 was the ideal season and possible this time too. Cold from late February until early April then warm and sunny from mid April until early August.
We've all coped here fine. And the clocks go forward in 3 weeks too.
So still a clear Labour poll lead but a smaller gap and RefUK still heading for the highest voteshare for a party right of the Tories since the 12% Farage's previous vehicle, UKIP, got against Cameron in 2015
Astronomical Spring doesn't technically start until 20th March
That was a complete waste of everything. Well done to all involved.
ETA: I do expect a slight boost for the Conservatives (and have bet accordingly) but I don't see any convincing indications of it yet.
Sensible politics
Hang on.
No, we had passport checks already didn't we because not in Schengen. So what was the point again...?
@PeoplePolling
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2h
NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (1 Mar):
🔴 LAB: 45% (-1 from 22 Feb)
🔵 CON: 24% (+4)
🟠 LDM: 9% (+2)
🟢 GRN: 8% (=)
🟣 RFM: 7% (-2)
🟡 SNP: 5% (=)
PeoplePolling consistently the worst pollster for Con but even they have the lead down to 21.
Three weeks ago, PeoplePolling had a Lab lead of 29 (50-21)
When do the betting markets for 'first water company to announce restrictions' go up?...
LAB: 45% (-1)
CON: 24% (+4)
LDM: 9% (+2)
GRN: 8% (=)
RFM: 7% (-2)
SNP: 5% (=)
Via @PeoplePolling, 1 Mar.
Changes w/ 22 Feb.
When Classical statues were dug up in the Renaissance, they didn't realise that they had previously been painted, which is why Renaissance statues are in clean, white, unpainted marble. Michelangelo carved the pupils on the eyes of 'David', whereas on Classical sculptures there are no carved pupils as they would just have been painted.
Though I would personally prefer them to stay in the British Museum, it is true that certain parts of the Parthenon Marbles were damaged (early 20thC I believe) by 'restorers' who filed away any traces of colour they could, presumably thinking the colour was just muck. They were stopped before they got any further so some colour traces still remain.
In reality the statues of these civilizations (Egypt, Assyria, Greece, Rome) must have looked like something out of Las Vegas.
The art of the ancient Mediterranean infuenced India and China (notably the Terracotta Army, and a great deal of Buddhist Art) via the Macedonian Empire (so-called 'Helenistic Period').
👄🍆: 45% counts / 41% does not count
👅🍩: 44% / 40%
🍩👈: 37% / 48%
✊🍆: 34% / 52%
And yes, those times are largely meaningless.
The space launch industry is divided into
1) SpaceX doesn’t exist. Their prices are fake. See ESA
2) Due to politics we can’t build a fully reusable launcher to compete so we aim to be the other option for US Government contracts. See ULA.
3) Copy Falcon 9 - see some renders from Europe, China on the web
4) Ignore - much of the micro launcher industry
5) we have a plan to be even cheaper - see Stoke Space
There are rumblings about the deal currently. My take on it is that any improvement is to be welcomed, but that there must a way out of the deal for both sides. There currently is a way out for the EU - they can cancel the green lanes, but is there a way out for the UK? We should be in a position where we can, after giving this deal a thorough chance of working, and after due process, revoke it and revive the NIP act. That seems wise and fair.
Rupa Huq has been reinstated as a Labour MP, five months after she lost the whip for comments she made about Kwasi Kwarteng being "superficially black"
Sunak had a larger bounce in that leader survey a couple of days ago, and that may be the more lasting effect - many people may feel the Tories are still overdue for Opposition but Sunak's quite competent.
There was a long-standing Hellenistic Kingdom in the Indus Valley, in the last two hundred years BC, so plenty of cultural influences would have travelled in either direction.
Maybe some Tory MPs could learn something
People go to considerable lengths to exclude various forms of sexual activity from being sex.
Actually for all I know that's now an official piece of doctrine, things move so quickly now.
The iced 'ring' symbol is perhaps unfortunate, unless I've misinterpreted the scope of hte question.
And... an aubergine? Either you're hung like a horse, Horse or you have some unfortunate skin condition (or both?)
Personally, I'd say not 'having sex' for all, but all definitely count as 'sexual relations' (sorry, Bill)
ETA: Mind you, my verdict is from a heterosexual male point of view. Could indeed be 'having sex' for a same sex couple. So, put me down as a 'maybe'
Given its strategic importance, national governments will fund serious copycat programs, I think. And given that it's been shown to be possible, they'll succeed eventually.
It is interesting (and instructive) to listen to the politicians trying to articulate this, when it comes to SAA style contracts vs FAR in the US.
I doubt she is apologetic personally - it wasnt some thoughtless aside made after having a few at the bar, she even developed it as a thought about what he sounds like, and she had to know what her comments sounded like.
On balance it seems likely she meant it and means it. But she was smart enough to walk it back.
No one called it woke.
For those who care, a final update on the Estonian election, which finishes on Sunday. At least a third of votes have already been cast online, but the polls are showing a wide range of outcomes. Some suggest that EKRE, the populist right wingers could be very close behind the ruling Reform party, others suggest that EKRE, which has been caught up in a scandal that suggests they have received money from the Wagner group, might lose seats and even come fourth. The consistent features of the polls are i) Reform likely to top the poll, 2) Centre likely to lose seats 3) Eesti 200 likely to enter the Parliament for the first time. The problem is that behind these big picture points, the nuances will still be critical in establishing who forms the government.
Reform have been generally falling over the course of the campaign which reflects a dollop of bad economic news, and their Conservative Isamaa allies have also been under pressure perhaps being punished for their participation in the previous Centre-EKRE-Isamaa coalition. Certainly Isamaa are likely to lose seats. The big question will then be how well Eesti 200 does. Most likely Eesti 200 will support Kaja Kallas to return as Prime Minister, and with the Social Democrats (SDE) seemingly holding their own, a new coalition of Reform-Eesti 200-SDE would be the most viable.
If EKRE poll in line with their best forecasts, 22% versus only 24% for Reform, then there is still a possibility of EKRE-Centre-Isamaa, which would give EKRE leader, Martin Helme, the reins of government and would be something of a political earthquake.
My own view is that Reform will still poll around the 29% they got in 2019, and will hold their 34 seats, with the possibility of a net gain or loss of about 2. Centre, EKRE and Eesti 200 will all poll in the teens, with Centre polling around 19% (down from 24% in 2019) and losing 6 or 7 seats from their current 26. EKRE support is very volatile, and until the Wagner scandal I would have forecast then second on around 20% (up from 17% last time), with a gain of around five on the 19 they got last time. Now, however, I think it possible that they may poll only 14% and lose as many as five seats. Eesti 200 seem set to gain about 14%, which would give them around 15 seats (none last time). Isamaa will probably lose 3-4 of the 12 seats that they hold and fall from 11 to around 8%, while the SDE will be flat at 9% of the vote and will hold their 10 seats.
So at the finishing post it could be Reform, Centre, Eesti 200, EKRE, SDE and Isamaa. However, at least two polls suggest it could be Reform, EKRE, Centre, Eesti 200, Isamaa, SDE.
All will become clear on Sunday evening.
I very much doubt that you disagree with basically everything he says. I'd recommend a listen to him on the Nick Robinson podcast below:
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-steve-baker-one/id1224154223?i=1000434770432
Yup, it is like Jeremy Vine going on a bike trip and not finding a driver to moan about on twitter.
The suggestion that nothing has changed is obviously wrong. There have been massive shifts. I think Scholz is a poor leader, and the SPD hasn't given anyone much reason to believe in them. Also people like Merkel and the awful Schröder are refusing to admit that they got things wrong. But Germany has had to move further than most countries - I would guess the support Ukraine has had from Germany, and the relative success Germany has had in doing without Russian energy supplies have been among the bigger disappointments Putin has had in his disastrous war.
On only 46% of Germans regarding the US as a reliable military partner: the figures are 46% yes and 27% no. This is much more positive than when Trump was president - in 2019 only 19% regarded the US as a reliable partner, and 57% not. This suggests that one of the reasons why Germans (and others - Germany is hardly an outlier here) are suspicious of US foreign policy is to do with US foreign policy and leadership, rather than being mainly the fault of politicians like Scholz, as the author claims.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/11gwupk/belarusian_partisans_handed_over_unique_video/
Alleged video from the attack on the Russian AWACS plane
It might not be technically possible to be useless in that case, which us handy, just having horrible judgement.
It's surely a forlorn task.
It could even get picked up on a reputable political betting website.