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The problem for Sunak remains – most voters think Brexit was wrong – politicalbetting.com

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  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    malcolmg said:

    Humza will not win Scott

    mickydroy said:

    He has to win first

    You are both predicting Humza has as much chance of winning as he does of riding a scooter down a hallway...
    Are we likely to get any polling of SNP members, in advance of the formal vote?
    Doubt it, all big secret so people don't know how many they have lost. Unless it changes will all be controlled by Murrell so no guarantee we will ever know or if it si Humza if he really won. He shoudl be barred from the whole thing.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    GIN1138 said:

    There are all kinds of hell waiting for Starmer and the next Labour government...

    As nothing compared to the in-tray awaiting whichever performing monkey takes over from the organ grinder in Bute House
    Humza will not win Scott
    I hope you’re right, Malc, Does that mean that Murrell is no longer counting the votes?
    Indeed

    The SNP has appointed an independent firm to oversee its leadership election following criticism that Nicola Sturgeon’s husband is playing too central a role in the contest.

    Peter Murrell, the party’s chief executive, has been under attack from members for his alleged oversight of the election contest, set in train by Sturgeon’s sudden resignation as SNP leader and first minister.

    Alex Neil, who served as health secretary, said there was “a low level of confidence” in the party headquarters. He added: “It is not really acceptable that the SNP chief executive should be playing such a central role. I am not accusing anyone of anything but it is clear the party hierarchy have a preferred candidate.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/independent-firm-to-run-contest-for-leadership-qhn7b9k90
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, have a drink?

    I've reheated some Sunday cassoulet.
    It's better than I thought it would be
    So many foods like cassoulet and chillis are much rounder, richer flavours after a day or two.
    This is true - but not, I find, if there's lamb in there. Lamb seems to appreciate being eaten straightaway.
    I'm not sure the lamb appreciates bring eaten at any time!
    If lambs don't appreciate being eaten, why did they evolve to be so very tasty?
    as in the Pub Landlord, "he's made of beef, and I'm hungry; it's not personal!"
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,268

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, have a drink?

    I've reheated some Sunday cassoulet.
    It's better than I thought it would be
    So many foods like cassoulet and chillis are much rounder, richer flavours after a day or two.
    This is true - but not, I find, if there's lamb in there. Lamb seems to appreciate being eaten straightaway.
    I'm not sure the lamb appreciates bring eaten at any time!
    If lambs don't appreciate being eaten, why did they evolve to be so very tasty?
    People Eating Tasty Animals
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, have a drink?

    I've reheated some Sunday cassoulet.
    It's better than I thought it would be
    So many foods like cassoulet and chillis are much rounder, richer flavours after a day or two.
    This is true - but not, I find, if there's lamb in there. Lamb seems to appreciate being eaten straightaway.
    I'm not sure the lamb appreciates bring eaten at any time!
    If lambs don't appreciate being eaten, why did they evolve to be so very tasty?
    If millionaires aren't just begging to be murdered, why is money so very nice?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,136
    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Stupid thread. It doesn’t matter any more

    The great Brexit fuckdrama is over. Some think it was a rape. Some a meaningless one night stand to be vaguely regretted. For others it was a sublime consummation

    But for all of us, it is now over. The post coital heartbeat is audibly slowing. And the normal political pulse resumes. And so we get on with the day

    I think Season One is now over. After nearly 7 years (7 years!) of turmoil we've hit another quasi-equilibrium. That will be enough to render it a virtual non-issue at the next election.

    But it will be back for more, hopefully no longer called Brexit, because the UK-EU relationship will never stand still. Sometimes it will be fractious, at other times constructive. I expect us to move back closer into the EU orbit in fits and starts and each will be a little mini-drama but nothing as explosive as the original. Switzerland is the closest analogue we have and the EU relationship dominates their foreign policy.
    Wonder what Churchill would say - the UK aspiring to be like Switzerland.
    Have you been to Switzerland?

    99.9% of the world would like to be Switzerland. Safe, secure, free, democratic and immensely
    wealthy

    If the UK ends up as an offshore version of Switzerland I will be overjoyed. We have global influence from our language and culture anyway. Fuck the rest
    It shows a lack of ambition. We are a major European nation who should be at the heart of the continent's politics, not hanging around on the periphery.

    But to your question - yes, I've worked in Geneva. No prizes for what sort of client it was. A shadowy private bank run by a snooty family. I helped them get a Bank of England licence to operate in London. This is the sort of thing you get to do if you qualify as a chartered accountant.

    I had fondue one night and then afterwards went to gaze at the fountain, thinking of that 60s show The Champions with Alexandra Bastedo. That's quite a vivid memory.
    I would rather be rich than at the heart of the continent's politics.
    Well I'm disappointed to hear that. But I do get what you mean. If being on the outside boosted economic growth in return for less influence, there'd be a tough choice there. As it is, thus far, it looks like this is not the case. Luckily for Leavers it can never be proven. You'd need to compare how we do (known) to how we would have done (unknown).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, have a drink?

    I've reheated some Sunday cassoulet.
    It's better than I thought it would be
    So many foods like cassoulet and chillis are much rounder, richer flavours after a day or two.
    This is true - but not, I find, if there's lamb in there. Lamb seems to appreciate being eaten straightaway.
    Quite so. Lamb goes down hill as its temperature falls out the oven. Hot off the leg or shoulder is the only way with lamb.
    Only if it’s been slow cooked for a week or two prior.
    Well, 5 or 6 hours at least....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    GIN1138 said:

    There are all kinds of hell waiting for Starmer and the next Labour government...

    As nothing compared to the in-tray awaiting whichever performing monkey takes over from the organ grinder in Bute House
    Humza will not win Scott
    I hope you’re right, Malc, Does that mean that Murrell is no longer counting the votes?
    Unfortunately not Fairlie, he will need to be dragged out in handcuffs to relinquish control.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,268
    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    malcolmg said:

    Humza will not win Scott

    mickydroy said:

    He has to win first

    You are both predicting Humza has as much chance of winning as he does of riding a scooter down a hallway...
    Are we likely to get any polling of SNP members, in advance of the formal vote?
    Doubt it, all big secret so people don't know how many they have lost. Unless it changes will all be controlled by Murrell so no guarantee we will ever know or if it si Humza if he really won. He shoudl be barred from the whole thing.
    {Lucien Bonaparte has entered the chat, ballots falling out of his pockets}
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    The great Brexit fuckdrama is over.

    Leondamus speaks.
    LAB LEAK
    What.Three.Words
    ///Remember.The.Necklace
    I'm surprised you want to talk about Liz Truss.

    Shall we remind you of those predictions?

    The Leon Singularity.

    Leon will eventually be wrong about everything he talks about.

    Remember when you were shitting your kecks about the imminent nuclear attack by Russia last autumn?
    Still, the necklace, eh?

    The greatest single insight in the history of PB. And it took me 2 minutes of watching the debate and even at the end a twat like @kinabalu didn’t know what I was on about
    LOL. I see you really are back on the drugs.

    As insights go, it wasn't as close as GardenWalker telling us that Sturgeon was about to resign 24 hours before we did.
    That was on Twitter. He told us. That’s where he read it. He told us

    I spotted the necklace EX NIHILO. With no information other than what I was seeing with my own eyes

    I am uncanny. Sometimes I scare myself to be honest
    But it's about as original as spotting pampas grass on the front lawn of a suburban bungalow.
    WOS had Sturgeon news on his blog/twitter before she went
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited February 2023
    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Stupid thread. It doesn’t matter any more

    The great Brexit fuckdrama is over. Some think it was a rape. Some a meaningless one night stand to be vaguely regretted. For others it was a sublime consummation

    But for all of us, it is now over. The post coital heartbeat is audibly slowing. And the normal political pulse resumes. And so we get on with the day

    I think Season One is now over. After nearly 7 years (7 years!) of turmoil we've hit another quasi-equilibrium. That will be enough to render it a virtual non-issue at the next election.

    But it will be back for more, hopefully no longer called Brexit, because the UK-EU relationship will never stand still. Sometimes it will be fractious, at other times constructive. I expect us to move back closer into the EU orbit in fits and starts and each will be a little mini-drama but nothing as explosive as the original. Switzerland is the closest analogue we have and the EU relationship dominates their foreign policy.
    Wonder what Churchill would say - the UK aspiring to be like Switzerland.
    Have you been to Switzerland?

    99.9% of the world would like to be Switzerland. Safe, secure, free, democratic and immensely
    wealthy

    If the UK ends up as an offshore version of Switzerland I will be overjoyed. We have global influence from our language and culture anyway. Fuck the rest
    It shows a lack of ambition. We are a major European nation who should be at the heart of the continent's politics, not hanging around on the periphery.

    But to your question - yes, I've worked in Geneva. No prizes for what sort of client it was. A shadowy private bank run by a snooty family. I helped them get a Bank of England licence to operate in London. This is the sort of thing you get to do if you qualify as a chartered accountant.

    I had fondue one night and then afterwards went to gaze at the fountain, thinking of that 60s show The Champions with Alexandra Bastedo. That's quite a vivid memory.
    I would rather be rich than at the heart of the continent's politics.
    Well I'm disappointed to hear that. But I do get what you mean. If being on the outside boosted economic growth in return for less influence, there'd be a tough choice there. As it is, thus far, it looks like this is not the case. Luckily for Leavers it can never be proven. You'd need to compare how we do (known) to how we would have done (unknown).
    Leavers currently arguing that zero out of two isn't bad.

    At the Downing Street lobby briefing the PM’s spokesperson said Rishi Sunak’s comments this morning about Northern Ireland benefiting from being in the EU single market did not mean he thought the whole of the UK should be in it. The spokesperson said:

    The British people made a decision in 2016 and we are seeing the benefits of that decision, whether that’s in the ability to change our environment laws, some of the tax elements the prime minister talked about just today, in fact...
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    edited February 2023
    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Stupid thread. It doesn’t matter any more

    The great Brexit fuckdrama is over. Some think it was a rape. Some a meaningless one night stand to be vaguely regretted. For others it was a sublime consummation

    But for all of us, it is now over. The post coital heartbeat is audibly slowing. And the normal political pulse resumes. And so we get on with the day

    I think Season One is now over. After nearly 7 years (7 years!) of turmoil we've hit another quasi-equilibrium. That will be enough to render it a virtual non-issue at the next election.

    But it will be back for more, hopefully no longer called Brexit, because the UK-EU relationship will never stand still. Sometimes it will be fractious, at other times constructive. I expect us to move back closer into the EU orbit in fits and starts and each will be a little mini-drama but nothing as explosive as the original. Switzerland is the closest analogue we have and the EU relationship dominates their foreign policy.
    Wonder what Churchill would say - the UK aspiring to be like Switzerland.
    Have you been to Switzerland?

    99.9% of the world would like to be Switzerland. Safe, secure, free, democratic and immensely
    wealthy

    If the UK ends up as an offshore version of Switzerland I will be overjoyed. We have global influence from our language and culture anyway. Fuck the rest
    It shows a lack of ambition. We are a major European nation who should be at the heart of the continent's politics, not hanging around on the periphery.

    But to your question - yes, I've worked in Geneva. No prizes for what sort of client it was. A shadowy private bank run by a snooty family. I helped them get a Bank of England licence to operate in London. This is the sort of thing you get to do if you qualify as a chartered accountant.

    I had fondue one night and then afterwards went to gaze at the fountain, thinking of that 60s show The Champions with Alexandra Bastedo. That's quite a vivid memory.
    I would rather be rich than at the heart of the continent's politics.
    Well I'm disappointed to hear that. But I do get what you mean. If being on the outside boosted economic growth in return for less influence, there'd be a tough choice there. As it is, thus far, it looks like this is not the case. Luckily for Leavers it can never be proven. You'd need to compare how we do (known) to how we would have done (unknown).
    Nah, it's easy. Do a diff in diff with a comparable* EU country(ies) or do an interrupted time series with Brexit as the interruption.**

    * This is particularly good as erstwhile leavers and remainers can choose different 'comparable' countries to each get the answer they want
    ** This is slightly complicated by the similar-time interruption known as Covid, with differential responses and exposures

    ETA: Ah, yes, I see - guess we'll never know then :disappointed:
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    On Topic

    "Most voters think BREXIT was wrong"

    More relevant is who they blame IMO

    Well Rishi has come out as an enthusiast for the single market today, which for me as a former Remainer is fantastic news. Neo Ultra-Brexiteer Starmer, the Shadow Brexit Secretary who delivered Johnson's deal, on the other hand has not.

    Starmer fans please explain.

    P.S. Has anyone heard from Boris Johnson?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Would be fantastic to see NI's Single Market access extended to the other three nations of the United Kingdom.

    An idea whose time has come. On that, I'm sure all PBers will agree.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839
    edited February 2023

    Would be fantastic to see NI's Single Market access extended to the other three nations of the United Kingdom.

    An idea whose time has come. On that, I'm sure all PBers will agree.

    Evidently not, alas.

    Because Red something something.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    edited February 2023

    Saw a comment on FB pointing out that if Yousuf becomes Scottish FM and achieves independence while Sunak is still UK PM then we would have a Pakistani heritage FM and Indian heritage PM negotiating the partition of Britain. I'd quite like this to happen solely on the basis of historical irony and lolz.

    This is why I love the UK!

    Look what the children/grandchildren of humble immigrants from India and Pakistan can achieve in this country.
    I think we can safely say that the orignal immigrants may have been humble but their grandchildren aren't

    Edit - I see @MarqueeMark beat me to the obvious comment.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431

    On Topic

    "Most voters think BREXIT was wrong"

    More relevant is who they blame IMO

    Well Rishi has come out as an enthusiast for the single market today, which for me as a former Remainer is fantastic news. Neo Ultra-Brexiteer Starmer, the Shadow Brexit Secretary who delivered Johnson's deal, on the other hand has not.

    Starmer fans please explain.

    P.S. Has anyone heard from Boris Johnson?
    Thankfully, no!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Carnyx said:

    Would be fantastic to see NI's Single Market access extended to the other three nations of the United Kingdom.

    An idea whose time has come. On that, I'm sure all PBers will agree.

    Evidently not, alas.

    Because Red something something.
    Red Alert?

    Red Notice?

    Red Riding Hood?
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    The more Sunak extols the virtues of Northern Ireland's single market membership, the harder it gets for him to explain why the rest of the UK shouldn't have it too.

    Northern Ireland voted Remain and borders the Irish Republic, GB voted Leave and borders the sea
    Scotland also voted remain.
    So did London, Liverpool and Manchester.

    The problem for Scotland is that two years prior they declined to become an independent country so their votes are a subset of UK votes and not counted independently.

    The same is true of Northern Ireland. The special arrangements there have the square root of sod all to do with how they voted in the referendum and are purely to do with the Good Friday Agreement. Scotland has no such agreement, so if it wants to be treated as an actual country it needs to actually become one, not go in via another country as NI does with the Republic.
    I'm sure many people in Scotland will be drawing that conclusion. Especially now we know that "hard" trade borders can be finessed in various ways.
    On current polls there will actually be almost as big a swing from SNP to Labour as Tory to Labour at the next election
    None of the polls came after this agreement. You're not thinking it through.
    When either the hapless Yousaf or Gilead Forbes succeed Sturgeon you can be sure the swing from the SNP will be even bigger.

    Plus Northern Ireland only has an open border with GB as well as the EU now as it is still in the UK
    We are talking about Scotland being in the UK as well as the EU. YOu know, if devomax really existed, it's the sort of thing the Scottish Government would jump at.

    As OLB said: "The more Sunak extols the virtues of Northern Ireland's single market membership, the harder it gets for him to explain why the rest of the UK shouldn't have it too."
    The EU aren't offering it.

    Ireland is a country in the EU. NI gets the Single Market not due to their votes, regardless of how often HYUFD and others claim that as the reason, but due to Ireland being a member state.

    If Scotland wants to be a member state it needs to become an actual country and accede instead of self identifying as a country.

    Scotland is as much a country as Isla Bryson is a woman.
    The trouble is, it is legalistic quibbling and sounds more and more like it. Like your trying to blame the Scots for the lies (with or without mens rea) of the No campaign.

    Whose fault is it the Scots were taken out against their will?

    They'll be even more furious.
    Its the Scots fault they were taken out against their will, since they rejected the opportunity for self-determination.
    Poor old England, not even having the balls to ask itself if it wanted self-determination.
    Not really, we at least took the opportunity before us in 2016 which was more than the Scots did in 2014.

    I'm a minority in wanting England out of the UK, I can live with that, it is what it is.

    But as a nation you don't get to reject the opportunity to control your own destiny, then bitch and moan that the union you chose to stay in makes some choices different to what you wanted. Had the UK voted to Remain in the EU, then the EU made decisions the UK didn't like, it would have been the UK's fault for choosing to Remain in the EU.

    Or to be more technically correct, you do get to bitch and moan - free speech and all that jazz - but it doesn't change the fact its your own responsibility that it happened.
    Hey, I get it, England likes being the big fat bloater in the Union but can’t bear being one of several such bloaters (& not even the biggest one) in the EU.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    edited February 2023

    Would be fantastic to see NI's Single Market access extended to the other three nations of the United Kingdom.

    You mean like before Brexit?

    No because obviously while Sunak is the political hero of all time for finding a brilliant way of Northern Ireland remaining within the Single Market, obviously the Single Market was a complete disaster and thank God we got out of it when we did.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    felix said:

    murali_s said:

    Why should Belfast get a better deal than London, Cardiff and Edinburgh? Can we just get a straight answer to this.

    As I said from day one, Brexit is a calamity and those that voted for it are nothing but cretins.

    Straight answer: Because Belfast is treated by the Good Friday Agreement as if it were in Ireland as well as the UK, despite not being in Ireland.

    So the UK is out of the Single Market, Ireland is in it, so as per the GFA Belfast is both and gets the best of both worlds.
    Would be helpful to expand that facility to the other three nations of the UK, though, wouldn't it?
    Why don't you send an e-mail to UvDL asking for it. We'd all enjoy reading her reply.
    Duh! Do you think I've not already done that?

    She and I are in daily correspondence. She's good for a night out, as it goes.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839

    Carnyx said:

    Would be fantastic to see NI's Single Market access extended to the other three nations of the United Kingdom.

    An idea whose time has come. On that, I'm sure all PBers will agree.

    Evidently not, alas.

    Because Red something something.
    Red Alert?

    Red Notice?

    Red Riding Hood?
    Mandrill's botty?

    No - I have it - Red Wall.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749

    felix said:

    murali_s said:

    Why should Belfast get a better deal than London, Cardiff and Edinburgh? Can we just get a straight answer to this.

    As I said from day one, Brexit is a calamity and those that voted for it are nothing but cretins.

    Straight answer: Because Belfast is treated by the Good Friday Agreement as if it were in Ireland as well as the UK, despite not being in Ireland.

    So the UK is out of the Single Market, Ireland is in it, so as per the GFA Belfast is both and gets the best of both worlds.
    Would be helpful to expand that facility to the other three nations of the UK, though, wouldn't it?
    Why don't you send an e-mail to UvDL asking for it. We'd all enjoy reading her reply.
    Duh! Do you think I've not already done that?

    She and I are in daily correspondence. She's good for a night out, as it goes.
    I bet she charges a good amount, though.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,136

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    The more Sunak extols the virtues of Northern Ireland's single market membership, the harder it gets for him to explain why the rest of the UK shouldn't have it too.

    Northern Ireland voted Remain and borders the Irish Republic, GB voted Leave and borders the sea
    Scotland also voted remain.
    So did London, Liverpool and Manchester.

    The problem for Scotland is that two years prior they declined to become an independent country so their votes are a subset of UK votes and not counted independently.

    The same is true of Northern Ireland. The special arrangements there have the square root of sod all to do with how they voted in the referendum and are purely to do with the Good Friday Agreement. Scotland has no such agreement, so if it wants to be treated as an actual country it needs to actually become one, not go in via another country as NI does with the Republic.
    I'm sure many people in Scotland will be drawing that conclusion. Especially now we know that "hard" trade borders can be finessed in various ways.
    On current polls there will actually be almost as big a swing from SNP to Labour as Tory to Labour at the next election
    None of the polls came after this agreement. You're not thinking it through.
    When either the hapless Yousaf or Gilead Forbes succeed Sturgeon you can be sure the swing from the SNP will be even bigger.

    Plus Northern Ireland only has an open border with GB as well as the EU now as it is still in the UK
    We are talking about Scotland being in the UK as well as the EU. YOu know, if devomax really existed, it's the sort of thing the Scottish Government would jump at.

    As OLB said: "The more Sunak extols the virtues of Northern Ireland's single market membership, the harder it gets for him to explain why the rest of the UK shouldn't have it too."
    The EU aren't offering it.

    Ireland is a country in the EU. NI gets the Single Market not due to their votes, regardless of how often HYUFD and others claim that as the reason, but due to Ireland being a member state.

    If Scotland wants to be a member state it needs to become an actual country and accede instead of self identifying as a country.

    Scotland is as much a country as Isla Bryson is a woman.
    The trouble is, it is legalistic quibbling and sounds more and more like it. Like your trying to blame the Scots for the lies (with or without mens rea) of the No campaign.

    Whose fault is it the Scots were taken out against their will?

    They'll be even more furious.
    Its the Scots fault they were taken out against their will, since they rejected the opportunity for self-determination.
    Poor old England, not even having the balls to ask itself if it wanted self-determination.
    Not really, we at least took the opportunity before us in 2016 which was more than the Scots did in 2014.

    I'm a minority in wanting England out of the UK, I can live with that, it is what it is.

    But as a nation you don't get to reject the opportunity to control your own destiny, then bitch and moan that the union you chose to stay in makes some choices different to what you wanted. Had the UK voted to Remain in the EU, then the EU made decisions the UK didn't like, it would have been the UK's fault for choosing to Remain in the EU.

    Or to be more technically correct, you do get to bitch and moan - free speech and all that jazz - but it doesn't change the fact its your own responsibility that it happened.
    I think TUD voted FOR Sindy. Could be wrong but that's my sense of it.
    Yes, but the question was collectively who was responsible for the Scots being taken out against their will and the only correct answer to that is . . . the Scots. For collectively rejecting the opportunity for self-determination.

    I may be wrong, but I believe that TUD identifies as a Scot. Collectively Scots voted against self-determination, regardless of TUD's vote, just as collectively Scots voted to Remain in the EU even if TUD had voted to Leave.
    Hmm, but surely the stronger argument is EU membership was used as a carrot by the No campaign in 2014. The carrot then turned into a shit sandwich because Scotland lost its membership as a direct result of voting No. The question now is, do you make them chew on the shit sandwich or do you ask them the Yes/No question again? I think they should be asked again, and I know you agree.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Chris said:

    Would be fantastic to see NI's Single Market access extended to the other three nations of the United Kingdom.

    You mean like before Brexit?
    NI's new single market access is not the same as it (or GB) had before Brexit - if it had been on offer for GB we never would have left. It wasn't then and it isn't now.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    Driver said:

    Chris said:

    Would be fantastic to see NI's Single Market access extended to the other three nations of the United Kingdom.

    You mean like before Brexit?
    NI's new single market access is not the same as it (or GB) had before Brexit - if it had been on offer for GB we never would have left. It wasn't then and it isn't now.
    Ah yes - silly me. I remember that question being in the referendum now.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Driver said:

    Chris said:

    Would be fantastic to see NI's Single Market access extended to the other three nations of the United Kingdom.

    You mean like before Brexit?
    NI's new single market access is not the same as it (or GB) had before Brexit - if it had been on offer for GB we never would have left. It wasn't then and it isn't now.
    But it is on offer for NI, which is one of the four constituent countries of the UK.

    That said, England and Wales voted Leave but the logical thing would be at least to offer Scotland the same facility.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    The more Sunak extols the virtues of Northern Ireland's single market membership, the harder it gets for him to explain why the rest of the UK shouldn't have it too.

    Northern Ireland voted Remain and borders the Irish Republic, GB voted Leave and borders the sea
    Scotland also voted remain.
    So did London, Liverpool and Manchester.

    The problem for Scotland is that two years prior they declined to become an independent country so their votes are a subset of UK votes and not counted independently.

    The same is true of Northern Ireland. The special arrangements there have the square root of sod all to do with how they voted in the referendum and are purely to do with the Good Friday Agreement. Scotland has no such agreement, so if it wants to be treated as an actual country it needs to actually become one, not go in via another country as NI does with the Republic.
    I'm sure many people in Scotland will be drawing that conclusion. Especially now we know that "hard" trade borders can be finessed in various ways.
    On current polls there will actually be almost as big a swing from SNP to Labour as Tory to Labour at the next election
    None of the polls came after this agreement. You're not thinking it through.
    When either the hapless Yousaf or Gilead Forbes succeed Sturgeon you can be sure the swing from the SNP will be even bigger.

    Plus Northern Ireland only has an open border with GB as well as the EU now as it is still in the UK
    We are talking about Scotland being in the UK as well as the EU. YOu know, if devomax really existed, it's the sort of thing the Scottish Government would jump at.

    As OLB said: "The more Sunak extols the virtues of Northern Ireland's single market membership, the harder it gets for him to explain why the rest of the UK shouldn't have it too."
    The EU aren't offering it.

    Ireland is a country in the EU. NI gets the Single Market not due to their votes, regardless of how often HYUFD and others claim that as the reason, but due to Ireland being a member state.

    If Scotland wants to be a member state it needs to become an actual country and accede instead of self identifying as a country.

    Scotland is as much a country as Isla Bryson is a woman.
    The trouble is, it is legalistic quibbling and sounds more and more like it. Like your trying to blame the Scots for the lies (with or without mens rea) of the No campaign.

    Whose fault is it the Scots were taken out against their will?

    They'll be even more furious.
    Its the Scots fault they were taken out against their will, since they rejected the opportunity for self-determination.
    Poor old England, not even having the balls to ask itself if it wanted self-determination.
    Not really, we at least took the opportunity before us in 2016 which was more than the Scots did in 2014.

    I'm a minority in wanting England out of the UK, I can live with that, it is what it is.

    But as a nation you don't get to reject the opportunity to control your own destiny, then bitch and moan that the union you chose to stay in makes some choices different to what you wanted. Had the UK voted to Remain in the EU, then the EU made decisions the UK didn't like, it would have been the UK's fault for choosing to Remain in the EU.

    Or to be more technically correct, you do get to bitch and moan - free speech and all that jazz - but it doesn't change the fact its your own responsibility that it happened.
    I think TUD voted FOR Sindy. Could be wrong but that's my sense of it.
    Yes, but the question was collectively who was responsible for the Scots being taken out against their will and the only correct answer to that is . . . the Scots. For collectively rejecting the opportunity for self-determination.

    I may be wrong, but I believe that TUD identifies as a Scot. Collectively Scots voted against self-determination, regardless of TUD's vote, just as collectively Scots voted to Remain in the EU even if TUD had voted to Leave.
    Hmm, but surely the stronger argument is EU membership was used as a carrot by the No campaign in 2014. The carrot then turned into a shit sandwich because Scotland lost its membership as a direct result of voting No. The question now is, do you make them chew on the shit sandwich or do you ask them the Yes/No question again? I think they should be asked again, and I know you agree.
    Interesting to see how the Brexiters on PB are coming up with all sorts of quibbles over the SM.

    If you don't ask, how do you know the EU won't grant? It's not as if Mr J is in charge. And it's not a million miles from EFTA.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,136

    On Topic

    "Most voters think BREXIT was wrong"

    More relevant is who they blame IMO

    Well Rishi has come out as an enthusiast for the single market today, which for me as a former Remainer is fantastic news. Neo Ultra-Brexiteer Starmer, the Shadow Brexit Secretary who delivered Johnson's deal, on the other hand has not.

    Starmer fans please explain.

    P.S. Has anyone heard from Boris Johnson?
    He's got his trotters up in Capri apparently.

    And never mind about Rishi's enthusiasm for the Single Market, Steve Baker was in tears on Newsnight about how good it is!
  • It's disappointing to see a beacon of democracy like Nigeria descend to the level of the US Republican Party.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    Driver said:

    Chris said:

    Would be fantastic to see NI's Single Market access extended to the other three nations of the United Kingdom.

    You mean like before Brexit?
    NI's new single market access is not the same as it (or GB) had before Brexit - if it had been on offer for GB we never would have left. It wasn't then and it isn't now.
    But it is on offer for NI, which is one of the four constituent countries of the UK.

    That said, England and Wales voted Leave but the logical thing would be at least to offer Scotland the same facility.
    It is, but only because the NIP and the NIP Bill (and, fundamentally, the GFA) gave the UK government leverage to force it. They have no such equivalent leverage for GB.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Wonderful to see PBers in agreement that NI's Single Market access is excellent news for the wee country.

    It's like Brexit never happened, and the next step is to extend the principle UK wide – clearly so-called 'Hard Leavers' have had a change of heart, which is great – great I say! – to see.

    Welcome back guys.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839

    Wonderful to see PBers in agreement that NI's Single Market access is excellent news for the wee country.

    It's like Brexit never happened, and the next step is to extend the principle UK wide – clearly so-called 'Hard Leavers' have had a change of heart, which is great – great I say! – to see.

    Welcome back guys.

    Repentant sinners and all that. Though - if only one could shovel unicorn shite over the rose-beds.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Wonderful to see PBers in agreement that NI's Single Market access is excellent news for the wee country.

    It's like Brexit never happened, and the next step is to extend the principle UK wide – clearly so-called 'Hard Leavers' have had a change of heart, which is great – great I say! – to see.

    Welcome back guys.

    The single market is brilliant, except we can't have it, cos reasons...
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Does anyone know if the Windsor deal creates a potentially big market for fulfilment companies in NI?

    For example a company with big warehouses opens where small producers of say, artisan gin or whisky, who were previously having a nightmare with red tape sending their produce to the EU, can send it to NI fulfilment co who have teams who understand and do the paperwork and then it enters the EU market from there for a %.

    Not sure if this removes or reduces issues for rUK producers but would be interesting if someone has the knowledge.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    The more Sunak extols the virtues of Northern Ireland's single market membership, the harder it gets for him to explain why the rest of the UK shouldn't have it too.

    Northern Ireland voted Remain and borders the Irish Republic, GB voted Leave and borders the sea
    Scotland also voted remain.
    So did London, Liverpool and Manchester.

    The problem for Scotland is that two years prior they declined to become an independent country so their votes are a subset of UK votes and not counted independently.

    The same is true of Northern Ireland. The special arrangements there have the square root of sod all to do with how they voted in the referendum and are purely to do with the Good Friday Agreement. Scotland has no such agreement, so if it wants to be treated as an actual country it needs to actually become one, not go in via another country as NI does with the Republic.
    I'm sure many people in Scotland will be drawing that conclusion. Especially now we know that "hard" trade borders can be finessed in various ways.
    On current polls there will actually be almost as big a swing from SNP to Labour as Tory to Labour at the next election
    None of the polls came after this agreement. You're not thinking it through.
    When either the hapless Yousaf or Gilead Forbes succeed Sturgeon you can be sure the swing from the SNP will be even bigger.

    Plus Northern Ireland only has an open border with GB as well as the EU now as it is still in the UK
    We are talking about Scotland being in the UK as well as the EU. YOu know, if devomax really existed, it's the sort of thing the Scottish Government would jump at.

    As OLB said: "The more Sunak extols the virtues of Northern Ireland's single market membership, the harder it gets for him to explain why the rest of the UK shouldn't have it too."
    The EU aren't offering it.

    Ireland is a country in the EU. NI gets the Single Market not due to their votes, regardless of how often HYUFD and others claim that as the reason, but due to Ireland being a member state.

    If Scotland wants to be a member state it needs to become an actual country and accede instead of self identifying as a country.

    Scotland is as much a country as Isla Bryson is a woman.
    The trouble is, it is legalistic quibbling and sounds more and more like it. Like your trying to blame the Scots for the lies (with or without mens rea) of the No campaign.

    Whose fault is it the Scots were taken out against their will?

    They'll be even more furious.
    Its the Scots fault they were taken out against their will, since they rejected the opportunity for self-determination.
    Poor old England, not even having the balls to ask itself if it wanted self-determination.
    Not really, we at least took the opportunity before us in 2016 which was more than the Scots did in 2014.

    I'm a minority in wanting England out of the UK, I can live with that, it is what it is.

    But as a nation you don't get to reject the opportunity to control your own destiny, then bitch and moan that the union you chose to stay in makes some choices different to what you wanted. Had the UK voted to Remain in the EU, then the EU made decisions the UK didn't like, it would have been the UK's fault for choosing to Remain in the EU.

    Or to be more technically correct, you do get to bitch and moan - free speech and all that jazz - but it doesn't change the fact its your own responsibility that it happened.
    I think TUD voted FOR Sindy. Could be wrong but that's my sense of it.
    Yes, but the question was collectively who was responsible for the Scots being taken out against their will and the only correct answer to that is . . . the Scots. For collectively rejecting the opportunity for self-determination.

    I may be wrong, but I believe that TUD identifies as a Scot. Collectively Scots voted against self-determination, regardless of TUD's vote, just as collectively Scots voted to Remain in the EU even if TUD had voted to Leave.
    Hmm, but surely the stronger argument is EU membership was used as a carrot by the No campaign in 2014. The carrot then turned into a shit sandwich because Scotland lost its membership as a direct result of voting No. The question now is, do you make them chew on the shit sandwich or do you ask them the Yes/No question again? I think they should be asked again, and I know you agree.
    Interesting to see how the Brexiters on PB are coming up with all sorts of quibbles over the SM.

    If you don't ask, how do you know the EU won't grant? It's not as if Mr J is in charge. And it's not a million miles from EFTA.
    If they were going to, they would have done so before 2016.

    The Four Freedoms Are Indivisible.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    Wonderful to see PBers in agreement that NI's Single Market access is excellent news for the wee country.

    It's like Brexit never happened, and the next step is to extend the principle UK wide – clearly so-called 'Hard Leavers' have had a change of heart, which is great – great I say! – to see.

    Welcome back guys.

    Single market in goods was always acceptable to nearly all Leavers. But The Four Freedoms Are Indivisible.
  • For the “stop arming Ukraine get them to negotiate with Russia” crew:

    Exhumation completed in #Izyum.

    194 male bodies
    215 female bodies
    (22 military bodies)
    5 baby bodies
    11 - unidentified

    Many bodies have hands tied and/or limbs missing, head and chest injuries, genitals missing, stab wounds, ropes around the neck, bullet wounds.


    https://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/status/1629906366163742720?s=20
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Ursula is now OUR FRIEND.

    A friend in need (us) is a friend indeed.

    Beers with Ursula Friday, Single Market Monday.

    Everybody happy.

    Job done.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Chris said:

    Would be fantastic to see NI's Single Market access extended to the other three nations of the United Kingdom.

    You mean like before Brexit?
    NI's new single market access is not the same as it (or GB) had before Brexit - if it had been on offer for GB we never would have left. It wasn't then and it isn't now.
    But it is on offer for NI, which is one of the four constituent countries of the UK.

    That said, England and Wales voted Leave but the logical thing would be at least to offer Scotland the same facility.
    It is, but only because the NIP and the NIP Bill (and, fundamentally, the GFA) gave the UK government leverage to force it. They have no such equivalent leverage for GB.
    Ach! If only Boris Johnson and Liz Truss had been in power before the referendum!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Scott_xP said:

    Wonderful to see PBers in agreement that NI's Single Market access is excellent news for the wee country.

    It's like Brexit never happened, and the next step is to extend the principle UK wide – clearly so-called 'Hard Leavers' have had a change of heart, which is great – great I say! – to see.

    Welcome back guys.

    The single market is brilliant, except we can't have it, cos reasons...
    It sure is a funny one, I just can't put my finger on it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,136
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Stupid thread. It doesn’t matter any more

    The great Brexit fuckdrama is over. Some think it was a rape. Some a meaningless one night stand to be vaguely regretted. For others it was a sublime consummation

    But for all of us, it is now over. The post coital heartbeat is audibly slowing. And the normal political pulse resumes. And so we get on with the day

    I think Season One is now over. After nearly 7 years (7 years!) of turmoil we've hit another quasi-equilibrium. That will be enough to render it a virtual non-issue at the next election.

    But it will be back for more, hopefully no longer called Brexit, because the UK-EU relationship will never stand still. Sometimes it will be fractious, at other times constructive. I expect us to move back closer into the EU orbit in fits and starts and each will be a little mini-drama but nothing as explosive as the original. Switzerland is the closest analogue we have and the EU relationship dominates their foreign policy.
    Wonder what Churchill would say - the UK aspiring to be like Switzerland.
    Have you been to Switzerland?

    99.9% of the world would like to be Switzerland. Safe, secure, free, democratic and immensely
    wealthy

    If the UK ends up as an offshore version of Switzerland I will be overjoyed. We have global influence from our language and culture anyway. Fuck the rest
    It shows a lack of ambition. We are a major European nation who should be at the heart of the continent's politics, not hanging around on the periphery.

    But to your question - yes, I've worked in Geneva. No prizes for what sort of client it was. A shadowy private bank run by a snooty family. I helped them get a Bank of England licence to operate in London. This is the sort of thing you get to do if you qualify as a chartered accountant.

    I had fondue one night and then afterwards went to gaze at the fountain, thinking of that 60s show The Champions with Alexandra Bastedo. That's quite a vivid memory.
    I would rather be rich than at the heart of the continent's politics.
    Well I'm disappointed to hear that. But I do get what you mean. If being on the outside boosted economic growth in return for less influence, there'd be a tough choice there. As it is, thus far, it looks like this is not the case. Luckily for Leavers it can never be proven. You'd need to compare how we do (known) to how we would have done (unknown).
    Leavers currently arguing that zero out of two isn't bad.

    At the Downing Street lobby briefing the PM’s spokesperson said Rishi Sunak’s comments this morning about Northern Ireland benefiting from being in the EU single market did not mean he thought the whole of the UK should be in it. The spokesperson said:

    The British people made a decision in 2016 and we are seeing the benefits of that decision, whether that’s in the ability to change our environment laws, some of the tax elements the prime minister talked about just today, in fact...
    The benefits come down to just the one - and you need a rather outdated and reductive view of what sovereignty means to buy into even that imo.
  • Is Johnson actually in Capri, or are people taking Tim Stanley’s metaphor literally?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/02/27/rishi-sunak-unified-continent-tiberius-johnson-sulked-capri/
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    Driver said:

    Wonderful to see PBers in agreement that NI's Single Market access is excellent news for the wee country.

    It's like Brexit never happened, and the next step is to extend the principle UK wide – clearly so-called 'Hard Leavers' have had a change of heart, which is great – great I say! – to see.

    Welcome back guys.

    Single market in goods was always acceptable to nearly all Leavers. But The Four Freedoms Are Indivisible.
    It's so great to have someone like you here to give us definitive information about what everyone wants and how things would have been different if something different had been on offer.

    I did meet someone like you once before (if I remember rightly he had a big notice tied round his neck), but unfortunately I lost his contact details.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    Carnyx said:


    Interesting to see how the Brexiters on PB are coming up with all sorts of quibbles over the SM.

    If you don't ask, how do you know the EU won't grant? It's not as if Mr J is in charge. And it's not a million miles from EFTA.

    The UK was told "no" in 2017, so unless a hell of a lot has changed I can't see why now we would be offered an à la carte Single Market deal. It would be great if we could have it, but it would rather undermine the EU if the UK has a bespoke deal with only the bits we like in it. It would be far better than being in the EU itself.
  • boulay said:

    Does anyone know if the Windsor deal creates a potentially big market for fulfilment companies in NI?

    For example a company with big warehouses opens where small producers of say, artisan gin or whisky, who were previously having a nightmare with red tape sending their produce to the EU, can send it to NI fulfilment co who have teams who understand and do the paperwork and then it enters the EU market from there for a %.

    Not sure if this removes or reduces issues for rUK producers but would be interesting if someone has the knowledge.

    Surely the whole point of the Green Lane is it’s for goods destined to remain in NI. Shipping it to NI for onward shipment is a Red Channel route.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,962
    edited February 2023
    Anyway, I can’t compete with Tramadol & Asian lark’s tongues for my holidays but I know we all like a wee travel quiz. Who’s this snappily dressed chap? Clue: Bülowstradße.

    Edit: Apols for sideways pic, a bug of phone posting it appears.


  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,297

    Is Johnson actually in Capri, or are people taking Tim Stanley’s metaphor literally?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/02/27/rishi-sunak-unified-continent-tiberius-johnson-sulked-capri/

    i just hope he’s not brought his own MINNOWS
  • O/T

    Emerson has a poll showing Trump up 30% against RDS for the GOP nomination. More importantly, it also shows Trump beating Biden by 4 but Biden beating RDS by 4 and Haley by 3.

    If this doesn't change dramatically, RDS is not going to run. Yes, some polls show him better than this but he will want the consistency of knowing he can beat Trump and Biden. He hasn't got that. I still think the most likely scenario is a Trump-RDS ticket.

    DYOR
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839

    Anyway, I can’t compete with Tramadol & Asian lark’s tongues for my holidays but I know we all like a wee travel quiz. Who’s this snappily dressed chap? Clue: Bülowstradße.


    Sidney Reilly?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    Driver said:

    Wonderful to see PBers in agreement that NI's Single Market access is excellent news for the wee country.

    It's like Brexit never happened, and the next step is to extend the principle UK wide – clearly so-called 'Hard Leavers' have had a change of heart, which is great – great I say! – to see.

    Welcome back guys.

    Single market in goods was always acceptable to nearly all Leavers. But The Four Freedoms Are Indivisible.
    Just out of interest, are these Franklin Roosevelt's Four Freedoms you're talking about, or a different Four?

    And - I can't help asking - if they're really indivisible, how is it that there are four of them?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    glw said:

    Carnyx said:


    Interesting to see how the Brexiters on PB are coming up with all sorts of quibbles over the SM.

    If you don't ask, how do you know the EU won't grant? It's not as if Mr J is in charge. And it's not a million miles from EFTA.

    The UK was told "no" in 2017, so unless a hell of a lot has changed I can't see why now we would be offered an à la carte Single Market deal. It would be great if we could have it, but it would rather undermine the EU if the UK has a bespoke deal with only the bits we like in it. It would be far better than being in the EU itself.
    A hell of a lot changed just over 1 year ago - Ukraine was invaded and suddenly the EU has a large war on it's border which if it isn't stopped there is likely to end up in the EU.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    O/T

    Emerson has a poll showing Trump up 30% against RDS for the GOP nomination. More importantly, it also shows Trump beating Biden by 4 but Biden beating RDS by 4 and Haley by 3.

    If this doesn't change dramatically, RDS is not going to run. Yes, some polls show him better than this but he will want the consistency of knowing he can beat Trump and Biden. He hasn't got that. I still think the most likely scenario is a Trump-RDS ticket.

    DYOR

    A Trump RDS ticket isn't possible as both the president and vice president can't come from the same state.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,136

    Anyway, I can’t compete with Tramadol & Asian lark’s tongues for my holidays but I know we all like a wee travel quiz. Who’s this snappily dressed chap? Clue: Bülowstradße.


    Unlikely but it looks like Michael Schumacher?
  • Betting Post

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Backed Alonso for a podium at 3.8, and Nottingham Forest to win at home versus Everton at 2.84.

    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2023/02/epl-and-early-f1-28-february-2023.html
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    boulay said:

    Does anyone know if the Windsor deal creates a potentially big market for fulfilment companies in NI?

    For example a company with big warehouses opens where small producers of say, artisan gin or whisky, who were previously having a nightmare with red tape sending their produce to the EU, can send it to NI fulfilment co who have teams who understand and do the paperwork and then it enters the EU market from there for a %.

    Not sure if this removes or reduces issues for rUK producers but would be interesting if someone has the knowledge.

    Surely the whole point of the Green Lane is it’s for goods destined to remain in NI. Shipping it to NI for onward shipment is a Red Channel route.
    I get that, was just interested if the new deal made anything easier - so yes you have to put things through red lanes but if it’s a little easier in any way then would justify setting up handling/fulfilment businesses in NI.

    I take it though that there is no new quirk on through trade so clearly a silly question on my part.
  • Carnyx said:

    Anyway, I can’t compete with Tramadol & Asian lark’s tongues for my holidays but I know we all like a wee travel quiz. Who’s this snappily dressed chap? Clue: Bülowstradße.


    Sidney Reilly?
    Close contemporary but the other side of the political divide & different trade
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,799
    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Stupid thread. It doesn’t matter any more

    The great Brexit fuckdrama is over. Some think it was a rape. Some a meaningless one night stand to be vaguely regretted. For others it was a sublime consummation

    But for all of us, it is now over. The post coital heartbeat is audibly slowing. And the normal political pulse resumes. And so we get on with the day

    I think Season One is now over. After nearly 7 years (7 years!) of turmoil we've hit another quasi-equilibrium. That will be enough to render it a virtual non-issue at the next election.

    But it will be back for more, hopefully no longer called Brexit, because the UK-EU relationship will never stand still. Sometimes it will be fractious, at other times constructive. I expect us to move back closer into the EU orbit in fits and starts and each will be a little mini-drama but nothing as explosive as the original. Switzerland is the closest analogue we have and the EU relationship dominates their foreign policy.
    Wonder what Churchill would say - the UK aspiring to be like Switzerland.
    Have you been to Switzerland?

    99.9% of the world would like to be Switzerland. Safe, secure, free, democratic and immensely
    wealthy

    If the UK ends up as an offshore version of Switzerland I will be overjoyed. We have global influence from our language and culture anyway. Fuck the rest
    It shows a lack of ambition. We are a major European nation who should be at the heart of the continent's politics, not hanging around on the periphery.

    But to your question - yes, I've worked in Geneva. No prizes for what sort of client it was. A shadowy private bank run by a snooty family. I helped them get a Bank of England licence to operate in London. This is the sort of thing you get to do if you qualify as a chartered accountant.

    I had fondue one night and then afterwards went to gaze at the fountain, thinking of that 60s show The Champions with Alexandra Bastedo. That's quite a vivid memory.
    I would rather be rich than at the heart of the continent's politics.
    Well I'm disappointed to hear that. But I do get what you mean. If being on the outside boosted economic growth in return for less influence, there'd be a tough choice there. As it is, thus far, it looks like this is not the case. Luckily for Leavers it can never be proven. You'd need to compare how we do (known) to how we would have done (unknown).
    But - if being on the outside boosts economic growth - what's the point? Why should I cheer my politicians having influence if it doesn't make me better off? Why would it be a tough choice?

    And you're right - the counterfactual can never be proven.

    But just while we're talking about it, and for the record - because some Remainers have a habit of assuming anyone not actively extolling Leave at any one time now agrees with Remain - I would vote Leave again, given the chance, and with greater certainty than last time; and the economic case would be part of my case for doing so.
  • eek said:

    O/T

    Emerson has a poll showing Trump up 30% against RDS for the GOP nomination. More importantly, it also shows Trump beating Biden by 4 but Biden beating RDS by 4 and Haley by 3.

    If this doesn't change dramatically, RDS is not going to run. Yes, some polls show him better than this but he will want the consistency of knowing he can beat Trump and Biden. He hasn't got that. I still think the most likely scenario is a Trump-RDS ticket.

    DYOR

    A Trump RDS ticket isn't possible as both the president and vice president can't come from the same state.
    Plenty of ways round that. The easiest is Trump changes to a similarly Republican state for the duration of the contest.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839

    Carnyx said:

    Anyway, I can’t compete with Tramadol & Asian lark’s tongues for my holidays but I know we all like a wee travel quiz. Who’s this snappily dressed chap? Clue: Bülowstradße.


    Sidney Reilly?
    Close contemporary but the other side of the political divide & different trade
    I wondered about Reinhold Heydrich ... long face.
  • kinabalu said:

    Anyway, I can’t compete with Tramadol & Asian lark’s tongues for my holidays but I know we all like a wee travel quiz. Who’s this snappily dressed chap? Clue: Bülowstradße.


    Unlikely but it looks like Michael Schumacher?
    He does!
  • Is Johnson actually in Capri, or are people taking Tim Stanley’s metaphor literally?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/02/27/rishi-sunak-unified-continent-tiberius-johnson-sulked-capri/

    Stanley's misery on behalf of Boris Johnson is palpable.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Chris said:

    Driver said:

    Wonderful to see PBers in agreement that NI's Single Market access is excellent news for the wee country.

    It's like Brexit never happened, and the next step is to extend the principle UK wide – clearly so-called 'Hard Leavers' have had a change of heart, which is great – great I say! – to see.

    Welcome back guys.

    Single market in goods was always acceptable to nearly all Leavers. But The Four Freedoms Are Indivisible.
    Just out of interest, are these Franklin Roosevelt's Four Freedoms you're talking about, or a different Four?

    And - I can't help asking - if they're really indivisible, how is it that there are four of them?
    https://www.google.com/search?q=eu+four+freedoms
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,136
    edited February 2023
    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Stupid thread. It doesn’t matter any more

    The great Brexit fuckdrama is over. Some think it was a rape. Some a meaningless one night stand to be vaguely regretted. For others it was a sublime consummation

    But for all of us, it is now over. The post coital heartbeat is audibly slowing. And the normal political pulse resumes. And so we get on with the day

    I think Season One is now over. After nearly 7 years (7 years!) of turmoil we've hit another quasi-equilibrium. That will be enough to render it a virtual non-issue at the next election.

    But it will be back for more, hopefully no longer called Brexit, because the UK-EU relationship will never stand still. Sometimes it will be fractious, at other times constructive. I expect us to move back closer into the EU orbit in fits and starts and each will be a little mini-drama but nothing as explosive as the original. Switzerland is the closest analogue we have and the EU relationship dominates their foreign policy.
    Wonder what Churchill would say - the UK aspiring to be like Switzerland.
    Have you been to Switzerland?

    99.9% of the world would like to be Switzerland. Safe, secure, free, democratic and immensely
    wealthy

    If the UK ends up as an offshore version of Switzerland I will be overjoyed. We have global influence from our language and culture anyway. Fuck the rest
    It shows a lack of ambition. We are a major European nation who should be at the heart of the continent's politics, not hanging around on the periphery.

    But to your question - yes, I've worked in Geneva. No prizes for what sort of client it was. A shadowy private bank run by a snooty family. I helped them get a Bank of England licence to operate in London. This is the sort of thing you get to do if you qualify as a chartered accountant.

    I had fondue one night and then afterwards went to gaze at the fountain, thinking of that 60s show The Champions with Alexandra Bastedo. That's quite a vivid memory.
    I would rather be rich than at the heart of the continent's politics.
    Well I'm disappointed to hear that. But I do get what you mean. If being on the outside boosted economic growth in return for less influence, there'd be a tough choice there. As it is, thus far, it looks like this is not the case. Luckily for Leavers it can never be proven. You'd need to compare how we do (known) to how we would have done (unknown).
    But - if being on the outside boosts economic growth - what's the point? Why should I cheer my politicians having influence if it doesn't make me better off? Why would it be a tough choice?

    And you're right - the counterfactual can never be proven.

    But just while we're talking about it, and for the record - because some Remainers have a habit of assuming anyone not actively extolling Leave at any one time now agrees with Remain - I would vote Leave again, given the chance, and with greater certainty than last time; and the economic case would be part of my case for doing so.
    Politics is surely not purely about what makes you materially better off. I mean, I don't want to come across all saintly - I'm in truth as grubby as the next man - but I'm always looking for policies that reduce inequality and most of them, if they're serious as opposed to platitudes, will make me worse off.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    eek said:

    glw said:

    Carnyx said:


    Interesting to see how the Brexiters on PB are coming up with all sorts of quibbles over the SM.

    If you don't ask, how do you know the EU won't grant? It's not as if Mr J is in charge. And it's not a million miles from EFTA.

    The UK was told "no" in 2017, so unless a hell of a lot has changed I can't see why now we would be offered an à la carte Single Market deal. It would be great if we could have it, but it would rather undermine the EU if the UK has a bespoke deal with only the bits we like in it. It would be far better than being in the EU itself.
    A hell of a lot changed just over 1 year ago - Ukraine was invaded and suddenly the EU has a large war on it's border which if it isn't stopped there is likely to end up in the EU.
    I would hope it changes minds, but I also expect push back from the EU if British businesses are seen to exploit Northern Ireland's privileges. They can put up with a country of 2 million people bending the rules, but not 67 million of us.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Stupid thread. It doesn’t matter any more

    The great Brexit fuckdrama is over. Some think it was a rape. Some a meaningless one night stand to be vaguely regretted. For others it was a sublime consummation

    But for all of us, it is now over. The post coital heartbeat is audibly slowing. And the normal political pulse resumes. And so we get on with the day

    I think Season One is now over. After nearly 7 years (7 years!) of turmoil we've hit another quasi-equilibrium. That will be enough to render it a virtual non-issue at the next election.

    But it will be back for more, hopefully no longer called Brexit, because the UK-EU relationship will never stand still. Sometimes it will be fractious, at other times constructive. I expect us to move back closer into the EU orbit in fits and starts and each will be a little mini-drama but nothing as explosive as the original. Switzerland is the closest analogue we have and the EU relationship dominates their foreign policy.
    Wonder what Churchill would say - the UK aspiring to be like Switzerland.
    Have you been to Switzerland?

    99.9% of the world would like to be Switzerland. Safe, secure, free, democratic and immensely
    wealthy

    If the UK ends up as an offshore version of Switzerland I will be overjoyed. We have global influence from our language and culture anyway. Fuck the rest
    It shows a lack of ambition. We are a major European nation who should be at the heart of the continent's politics, not hanging around on the periphery.

    But to your question - yes, I've worked in Geneva. No prizes for what sort of client it was. A shadowy private bank run by a snooty family. I helped them get a Bank of England licence to operate in London. This is the sort of thing you get to do if you qualify as a chartered accountant.

    I had fondue one night and then afterwards went to gaze at the fountain, thinking of that 60s show The Champions with Alexandra Bastedo. That's quite a vivid memory.
    I would rather be rich than at the heart of the continent's politics.
    Well I'm disappointed to hear that. But I do get what you mean. If being on the outside boosted economic growth in return for less influence, there'd be a tough choice there. As it is, thus far, it looks like this is not the case. Luckily for Leavers it can never be proven. You'd need to compare how we do (known) to how we would have done (unknown).
    But - if being on the outside boosts economic growth - what's the point? Why should I cheer my politicians having influence if it doesn't make me better off? Why would it be a tough choice?

    And you're right - the counterfactual can never be proven.

    But just while we're talking about it, and for the record - because some Remainers have a habit of assuming anyone not actively extolling Leave at any one time now agrees with Remain - I would vote Leave again, given the chance, and with greater certainty than last time; and the economic case would be part of my case for doing so.
    :open_mouth: And to think I always thought you were one of the voices of reason on here :wink:
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,297

    Anyway, I can’t compete with Tramadol & Asian lark’s tongues for my holidays but I know we all like a wee travel quiz. Who’s this snappily dressed chap? Clue: Bülowstradße.

    Edit: Apols for sideways pic, a bug of phone posting it appears.


    Good one. He’s in a boxing gym of some kind. The dress says 1900-30s. The demeanor suggests Ireland and the Irish

    A famous Irish writer of some kind? Too young and macho to be Yeats. It’s not Joyce. Tricky

    God i dunno. Without Googling. Brendan Behan? Synge?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,297
    Beckett?
  • Banks wins appeal in Banks v Cadwalladr.

    https://twitter.com/tonydowson5/status/1630572139848900608
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @ChrisGreenNews
    SNP has just confirmed that media will *not* be allowed to attend party's 9 leadership hustings events

    Spokesman: "It is the members who will be voting for the next leader of the party, so the SNP NEC has designed the party hustings as a safe space"
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    Driver said:

    Chris said:

    Driver said:

    Wonderful to see PBers in agreement that NI's Single Market access is excellent news for the wee country.

    It's like Brexit never happened, and the next step is to extend the principle UK wide – clearly so-called 'Hard Leavers' have had a change of heart, which is great – great I say! – to see.

    Welcome back guys.

    Single market in goods was always acceptable to nearly all Leavers. But The Four Freedoms Are Indivisible.
    Just out of interest, are these Franklin Roosevelt's Four Freedoms you're talking about, or a different Four?

    And - I can't help asking - if they're really indivisible, how is it that there are four of them?
    https://www.google.com/search?q=eu+four+freedoms
    Ah - so these are bad freedoms. I had got the impression you were in favour of them!
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    I reckon yesterdays deal puts us on the path of aligning with EU regs and subsequently - a step back into the single market

    Will be interesting to see if the bonfire of EU retained laws happens. I bet it doesn’t
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    Leon said:

    Anyway, I can’t compete with Tramadol & Asian lark’s tongues for my holidays but I know we all like a wee travel quiz. Who’s this snappily dressed chap? Clue: Bülowstradße.

    Edit: Apols for sideways pic, a bug of phone posting it appears.


    Good one. He’s in a boxing gym of some kind. The dress says 1900-30s. The demeanor suggests Ireland and the Irish

    A famous Irish writer of some kind? Too young and macho to be Yeats. It’s not Joyce. Tricky

    God i dunno. Without Googling. Brendan Behan? Synge?
    Google Images does identify these things instantly these days, including this one. But I won't spoil the fun.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,799
    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Stupid thread. It doesn’t matter any more

    The great Brexit fuckdrama is over. Some think it was a rape. Some a meaningless one night stand to be vaguely regretted. For others it was a sublime consummation

    But for all of us, it is now over. The post coital heartbeat is audibly slowing. And the normal political pulse resumes. And so we get on with the day

    I think Season One is now over. After nearly 7 years (7 years!) of turmoil we've hit another quasi-equilibrium. That will be enough to render it a virtual non-issue at the next election.

    But it will be back for more, hopefully no longer called Brexit, because the UK-EU relationship will never stand still. Sometimes it will be fractious, at other times constructive. I expect us to move back closer into the EU orbit in fits and starts and each will be a little mini-drama but nothing as explosive as the original. Switzerland is the closest analogue we have and the EU relationship dominates their foreign policy.
    Wonder what Churchill would say - the UK aspiring to be like Switzerland.
    Have you been to Switzerland?

    99.9% of the world would like to be Switzerland. Safe, secure, free, democratic and immensely
    wealthy

    If the UK ends up as an offshore version of Switzerland I will be overjoyed. We have global influence from our language and culture anyway. Fuck the rest
    It shows a lack of ambition. We are a major European nation who should be at the heart of the continent's politics, not hanging around on the periphery.

    But to your question - yes, I've worked in Geneva. No prizes for what sort of client it was. A shadowy private bank run by a snooty family. I helped them get a Bank of England licence to operate in London. This is the sort of thing you get to do if you qualify as a chartered accountant.

    I had fondue one night and then afterwards went to gaze at the fountain, thinking of that 60s show The Champions with Alexandra Bastedo. That's quite a vivid memory.
    I would rather be rich than at the heart of the continent's politics.
    Well I'm disappointed to hear that. But I do get what you mean. If being on the outside boosted economic growth in return for less influence, there'd be a tough choice there. As it is, thus far, it looks like this is not the case. Luckily for Leavers it can never be proven. You'd need to compare how we do (known) to how we would have done (unknown).
    But - if being on the outside boosts economic growth - what's the point? Why should I cheer my politicians having influence if it doesn't make me better off? Why would it be a tough choice?

    And you're right - the counterfactual can never be proven.

    But just while we're talking about it, and for the record - because some Remainers have a habit of assuming anyone not actively extolling Leave at any one time now agrees with Remain - I would vote Leave again, given the chance, and with greater certainty than last time; and the economic case would be part of my case for doing so.
    Politics is surely not purely about what makes you materially better off. I mean, I don't want to come across all saintly - I'm in truth as grubby as the next man - but I'm always looking for policies that reduce inequality and most of them, if they're serious as opposed to platitudes, will make me worse off.
    To be clear, I'm using the first person in a very broad sense here - what I should have said was "I would rather Britain be rich than have influence" (i.e. I'd rather Britain be like Switzerland) and "why should we cheer our politicians having influence if it doesn't make us better off?"
    Russia is influential. But I don't think that influence is particularly beneficial to individual Russians.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593
    Leon said:

    Anyway, I can’t compete with Tramadol & Asian lark’s tongues for my holidays but I know we all like a wee travel quiz. Who’s this snappily dressed chap? Clue: Bülowstradße.

    Edit: Apols for sideways pic, a bug of phone posting it appears.


    Good one. He’s in a boxing gym of some kind. The dress says 1900-30s. The demeanor suggests Ireland and the Irish

    A famous Irish writer of some kind? Too young and macho to be Yeats. It’s not Joyce. Tricky

    God i dunno. Without Googling. Brendan Behan? Synge?
    The clue gives you a country of origin.
  • Scott_xP said:

    @ChrisGreenNews
    SNP has just confirmed that media will *not* be allowed to attend party's 9 leadership hustings events

    Spokesman: "It is the members who will be voting for the next leader of the party, so the SNP NEC has designed the party hustings as a safe space"

    All the Tory hustings last year were open to the media.

    The SNP are a bit like the GOP with this.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839

    Scott_xP said:

    @ChrisGreenNews
    SNP has just confirmed that media will *not* be allowed to attend party's 9 leadership hustings events

    Spokesman: "It is the members who will be voting for the next leader of the party, so the SNP NEC has designed the party hustings as a safe space"

    All the Tory hustings last year were open to the media.

    The SNP are a bit like the GOP with this.
    Separate broadcast hustings though.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    The more Sunak extols the virtues of Northern Ireland's single market membership, the harder it gets for him to explain why the rest of the UK shouldn't have it too.

    Northern Ireland voted Remain and borders the Irish Republic, GB voted Leave and borders the sea
    Scotland also voted remain.
    So did London, Liverpool and Manchester.

    The problem for Scotland is that two years prior they declined to become an independent country so their votes are a subset of UK votes and not counted independently.

    The same is true of Northern Ireland. The special arrangements there have the square root of sod all to do with how they voted in the referendum and are purely to do with the Good Friday Agreement. Scotland has no such agreement, so if it wants to be treated as an actual country it needs to actually become one, not go in via another country as NI does with the Republic.
    I'm sure many people in Scotland will be drawing that conclusion. Especially now we know that "hard" trade borders can be finessed in various ways.
    On current polls there will actually be almost as big a swing from SNP to Labour as Tory to Labour at the next election
    None of the polls came after this agreement. You're not thinking it through.
    When either the hapless Yousaf or Gilead Forbes succeed Sturgeon you can be sure the swing from the SNP will be even bigger.

    Plus Northern Ireland only has an open border with GB as well as the EU now as it is still in the UK
    We are talking about Scotland being in the UK as well as the EU. YOu know, if devomax really existed, it's the sort of thing the Scottish Government would jump at.

    As OLB said: "The more Sunak extols the virtues of Northern Ireland's single market membership, the harder it gets for him to explain why the rest of the UK shouldn't have it too."
    The EU aren't offering it.

    Ireland is a country in the EU. NI gets the Single Market not due to their votes, regardless of how often HYUFD and others claim that as the reason, but due to Ireland being a member state.

    If Scotland wants to be a member state it needs to become an actual country and accede instead of self identifying as a country.

    Scotland is as much a country as Isla Bryson is a woman.
    The trouble is, it is legalistic quibbling and sounds more and more like it. Like your trying to blame the Scots for the lies (with or without mens rea) of the No campaign.

    Whose fault is it the Scots were taken out against their will?

    They'll be even more furious.
    Its the Scots fault they were taken out against their will, since they rejected the opportunity for self-determination.
    Poor old England, not even having the balls to ask itself if it wanted self-determination.
    Not really, we at least took the opportunity before us in 2016 which was more than the Scots did in 2014.

    I'm a minority in wanting England out of the UK, I can live with that, it is what it is.

    But as a nation you don't get to reject the opportunity to control your own destiny, then bitch and moan that the union you chose to stay in makes some choices different to what you wanted. Had the UK voted to Remain in the EU, then the EU made decisions the UK didn't like, it would have been the UK's fault for choosing to Remain in the EU.

    Or to be more technically correct, you do get to bitch and moan - free speech and all that jazz - but it doesn't change the fact its your own responsibility that it happened.
    I think TUD voted FOR Sindy. Could be wrong but that's my sense of it.
    Yes, but the question was collectively who was responsible for the Scots being taken out against their will and the only correct answer to that is . . . the Scots. For collectively rejecting the opportunity for self-determination.

    I may be wrong, but I believe that TUD identifies as a Scot. Collectively Scots voted against self-determination, regardless of TUD's vote, just as collectively Scots voted to Remain in the EU even if TUD had voted to Leave.
    Hmm, but surely the stronger argument is EU membership was used as a carrot by the No campaign in 2014. The carrot then turned into a shit sandwich because Scotland lost its membership as a direct result of voting No. The question now is, do you make them chew on the shit sandwich or do you ask them the Yes/No question again? I think they should be asked again, and I know you agree.
    Interesting to see how the Brexiters on PB are coming up with all sorts of quibbles over the SM.

    If you don't ask, how do you know the EU won't grant? It's not as if Mr J is in charge. And it's not a million miles from EFTA.
    It's pretty well what they refused Cameron despite his best efforts. We all know how that ended.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,297
    OK I’m off to watch BETTER CALL SAUL, which I am catching up with 9 years after everyone else. It is excellent

    As a parting gift, here - I believe - is the only good pop song performed by a Northern Irish band whose name is directly inspired by the particular sexual fetish of a notorious Roman Emperor, unless there is an estimable Belfast pop combo, hitherto unknown to me, called DROWNING MY FRIENDS IN ROSE PETALS (though that would be a good name)

    Time Flies by Tiberius’ Minnows. Genuinely good

    https://youtu.be/qZj0ydj4WYg
  • Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @ChrisGreenNews
    SNP has just confirmed that media will *not* be allowed to attend party's 9 leadership hustings events

    Spokesman: "It is the members who will be voting for the next leader of the party, so the SNP NEC has designed the party hustings as a safe space"

    All the Tory hustings last year were open to the media.

    The SNP are a bit like the GOP with this.
    Separate broadcast hustings though.
    All the Tory hustings were open to the media, not just the broadcast hustings.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited February 2023
    Can I recommend, to anyone with a bit of time on their hands, “The witch trials of J K Rowling” podcast;

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-witch-trials-of-j-k-rowling/

    Probably available on other platforms, too.

    The third episode, just released, is particularly good.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Chris said:

    Driver said:

    Chris said:

    Driver said:

    Wonderful to see PBers in agreement that NI's Single Market access is excellent news for the wee country.

    It's like Brexit never happened, and the next step is to extend the principle UK wide – clearly so-called 'Hard Leavers' have had a change of heart, which is great – great I say! – to see.

    Welcome back guys.

    Single market in goods was always acceptable to nearly all Leavers. But The Four Freedoms Are Indivisible.
    Just out of interest, are these Franklin Roosevelt's Four Freedoms you're talking about, or a different Four?

    And - I can't help asking - if they're really indivisible, how is it that there are four of them?
    https://www.google.com/search?q=eu+four+freedoms
    Ah - so these are bad freedoms. I had got the impression you were in favour of them!
    Nearly everyone, as far as I can tell, thinks that three of them are fine.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Scott_xP said:

    @ChrisGreenNews
    SNP has just confirmed that media will *not* be allowed to attend party's 9 leadership hustings events

    Spokesman: "It is the members who will be voting for the next leader of the party, so the SNP NEC has designed the party hustings as a safe space"

    Wow!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,297
    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Anyway, I can’t compete with Tramadol & Asian lark’s tongues for my holidays but I know we all like a wee travel quiz. Who’s this snappily dressed chap? Clue: Bülowstradße.

    Edit: Apols for sideways pic, a bug of phone posting it appears.


    Good one. He’s in a boxing gym of some kind. The dress says 1900-30s. The demeanor suggests Ireland and the Irish

    A famous Irish writer of some kind? Too young and macho to be Yeats. It’s not Joyce. Tricky

    God i dunno. Without Googling. Brendan Behan? Synge?
    The clue gives you a country of origin.
    I completely missed the clue

    Fuck knows in that case

    Quite a handsome chap. Oskar Schindler?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329

    murali_s said:

    Why should Belfast get a better deal than London, Cardiff and Edinburgh? Can we just get a straight answer to this.

    As I said from day one, Brexit is a calamity and those that voted for it are nothing but cretins.

    Straight answer: Because Belfast is treated by the Good Friday Agreement as if it were in Ireland as well as the UK, despite not being in Ireland.

    So the UK is out of the Single Market, Ireland is in it, so as per the GFA Belfast is both and gets the best of both worlds.
    Usual bullshit from you
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    Banks wins appeal in Banks v Cadwalladr.

    https://twitter.com/tonydowson5/status/1630572139848900608

    :lol:
  • If I was going to be particularly cruel I could quote SNP supporters about a handful of people in the country choosing a Prime Minister rather the wider electorate.

    Does the same principle apply to the First Minister of Scotland?

    The fact the SNP want to hide their hustings makes their hypocrisy much worse.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839

    If I was going to be particularly cruel I could quote SNP supporters about a handful of people in the country choosing a Prime Minister rather the wider electorate.

    Does the same principle apply to the First Minister of Scotland?

    The fact the SNP want to hide their hustings makes their hypocrisy much worse.

    Not true. The MSPs choose the FM. Legally, and in practice with small party numbers.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Taz said:

    Banks wins appeal in Banks v Cadwalladr.

    https://twitter.com/tonydowson5/status/1630572139848900608

    :lol:
    I dunno, that one's a bit Alien vs. Predator to me...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,930

    O/T

    Emerson has a poll showing Trump up 30% against RDS for the GOP nomination. More importantly, it also shows Trump beating Biden by 4 but Biden beating RDS by 4 and Haley by 3.

    If this doesn't change dramatically, RDS is not going to run. Yes, some polls show him better than this but he will want the consistency of knowing he can beat Trump and Biden. He hasn't got that. I still think the most likely scenario is a Trump-RDS ticket.

    DYOR

    Trump now despises who he calls 'Ron DeSanctus' so much he wouldn't pick him for his dog catcher let alone VP nominee
    https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-lashes-out-fox-news-ron-desantis-1234687509/
  • Leon said:

    Anyway, I can’t compete with Tramadol & Asian lark’s tongues for my holidays but I know we all like a wee travel quiz. Who’s this snappily dressed chap? Clue: Bülowstradße.

    Edit: Apols for sideways pic, a bug of phone posting it appears.


    Good one. He’s in a boxing gym of some kind. The dress says 1900-30s. The demeanor suggests Ireland and the Irish

    A famous Irish writer of some kind? Too young and macho to be Yeats. It’s not Joyce. Tricky

    God i dunno. Without Googling. Brendan Behan? Synge?
    German, Krieg und Kunst
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839

    If I was going to be particularly cruel I could quote SNP supporters about a handful of people in the country choosing a Prime Minister rather the wider electorate.

    Does the same principle apply to the First Minister of Scotland?

    The fact the SNP want to hide their hustings makes their hypocrisy much worse.

    Also - latter wouldn't work, so that's not the reason. Numbers will be the issue - finding venues at fairly short notice, forget media facilities. Members have to take priority.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,154

    O/T

    Emerson has a poll showing Trump up 30% against RDS for the GOP nomination. More importantly, it also shows Trump beating Biden by 4 but Biden beating RDS by 4 and Haley by 3.

    If this doesn't change dramatically, RDS is not going to run. Yes, some polls show him better than this but he will want the consistency of knowing he can beat Trump and Biden. He hasn't got that. I still think the most likely scenario is a Trump-RDS ticket.

    DYOR

    There's huge variation in the Republican polls - Morning Consult, by contrast, has the gap as 18 points.

    Fwiw, I think there's an 70-80% chance that RDS stands. Simply, there will never be a better time than after he's cantered to a win in Florida.

  • Carnyx said:

    If I was going to be particularly cruel I could quote SNP supporters about a handful of people in the country choosing a Prime Minister rather the wider electorate.

    Does the same principle apply to the First Minister of Scotland?

    The fact the SNP want to hide their hustings makes their hypocrisy much worse.

    Not true. The MSPs choose the FM. Legally, and in practice with small party numbers.
    The same de facto principle applies to the PM.

    A PM cannot be PM if they do not command support of the House.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    The more Sunak extols the virtues of Northern Ireland's single market membership, the harder it gets for him to explain why the rest of the UK shouldn't have it too.

    Northern Ireland voted Remain and borders the Irish Republic, GB voted Leave and borders the sea
    Scotland also voted remain.
    So did London, Liverpool and Manchester.

    The problem for Scotland is that two years prior they declined to become an independent country so their votes are a subset of UK votes and not counted independently.

    The same is true of Northern Ireland. The special arrangements there have the square root of sod all to do with how they voted in the referendum and are purely to do with the Good Friday Agreement. Scotland has no such agreement, so if it wants to be treated as an actual country it needs to actually become one, not go in via another country as NI does with the Republic.
    I'm sure many people in Scotland will be drawing that conclusion. Especially now we know that "hard" trade borders can be finessed in various ways.
    On current polls there will actually be almost as big a swing from SNP to Labour as Tory to Labour at the next election
    None of the polls came after this agreement. You're not thinking it through.
    When either the hapless Yousaf or Gilead Forbes succeed Sturgeon you can be sure the swing from the SNP will be even bigger.

    Plus Northern Ireland only has an open border with GB as well as the EU now as it is still in the UK
    We are talking about Scotland being in the UK as well as the EU. YOu know, if devomax really existed, it's the sort of thing the Scottish Government would jump at.

    As OLB said: "The more Sunak extols the virtues of Northern Ireland's single market membership, the harder it gets for him to explain why the rest of the UK shouldn't have it too."
    Carnyx, wasting your time there.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    The more Sunak extols the virtues of Northern Ireland's single market membership, the harder it gets for him to explain why the rest of the UK shouldn't have it too.

    Northern Ireland voted Remain and borders the Irish Republic, GB voted Leave and borders the sea
    Scotland also voted remain.
    So did London, Liverpool and Manchester.

    The problem for Scotland is that two years prior they declined to become an independent country so their votes are a subset of UK votes and not counted independently.

    The same is true of Northern Ireland. The special arrangements there have the square root of sod all to do with how they voted in the referendum and are purely to do with the Good Friday Agreement. Scotland has no such agreement, so if it wants to be treated as an actual country it needs to actually become one, not go in via another country as NI does with the Republic.
    I'm sure many people in Scotland will be drawing that conclusion. Especially now we know that "hard" trade borders can be finessed in various ways.
    On current polls there will actually be almost as big a swing from SNP to Labour as Tory to Labour at the next election
    None of the polls came after this agreement. You're not thinking it through.
    When either the hapless Yousaf or Gilead Forbes succeed Sturgeon you can be sure the swing from the SNP will be even bigger.

    Plus Northern Ireland only has an open border with GB as well as the EU now as it is still in the UK
    We are talking about Scotland being in the UK as well as the EU. YOu know, if devomax really existed, it's the sort of thing the Scottish Government would jump at.

    As OLB said: "The more Sunak extols the virtues of Northern Ireland's single market membership, the harder it gets for him to explain why the rest of the UK shouldn't have it too."
    The EU aren't offering it.

    Ireland is a country in the EU. NI gets the Single Market not due to their votes, regardless of how often HYUFD and others claim that as the reason, but due to Ireland being a member state.

    If Scotland wants to be a member state it needs to become an actual country and accede instead of self identifying as a country.

    Scotland is as much a country as Isla Bryson is a woman.
    Which would then see a hard border between England and Scotland, the same as there would be a hard border in the Irish Sea again if Northern Ireland ever voted for a United Ireland (except with maybe county Antrim if the DUP then declared UDI)
    Big deal, loads of borders across the world, people seem able to handle it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839

    Carnyx said:

    If I was going to be particularly cruel I could quote SNP supporters about a handful of people in the country choosing a Prime Minister rather the wider electorate.

    Does the same principle apply to the First Minister of Scotland?

    The fact the SNP want to hide their hustings makes their hypocrisy much worse.

    Not true. The MSPs choose the FM. Legally, and in practice with small party numbers.
    The same de facto principle applies to the PM.

    A PM cannot be PM if they do not command support of the House.
    But it's not formally tested, is it? Only if the LoTo has the balls.

    And Westminster is FPTP. With minority and coalition governments, under buggered d'Hondt, it's far less obvious who the correct FM is.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    The more Sunak extols the virtues of Northern Ireland's single market membership, the harder it gets for him to explain why the rest of the UK shouldn't have it too.

    Northern Ireland voted Remain and borders the Irish Republic, GB voted Leave and borders the sea
    Scotland also voted remain.
    So did London, Liverpool and Manchester.

    The problem for Scotland is that two years prior they declined to become an independent country so their votes are a subset of UK votes and not counted independently.

    The same is true of Northern Ireland. The special arrangements there have the square root of sod all to do with how they voted in the referendum and are purely to do with the Good Friday Agreement. Scotland has no such agreement, so if it wants to be treated as an actual country it needs to actually become one, not go in via another country as NI does with the Republic.
    I'm sure many people in Scotland will be drawing that conclusion. Especially now we know that "hard" trade borders can be finessed in various ways.
    On current polls there will actually be almost as big a swing from SNP to Labour as Tory to Labour at the next election
    None of the polls came after this agreement. You're not thinking it through.
    When either the hapless Yousaf or Gilead Forbes succeed Sturgeon you can be sure the swing from the SNP will be even bigger.

    Plus Northern Ireland only has an open border with GB as well as the EU now as it is still in the UK
    We are talking about Scotland being in the UK as well as the EU. YOu know, if devomax really existed, it's the sort of thing the Scottish Government would jump at.

    As OLB said: "The more Sunak extols the virtues of Northern Ireland's single market membership, the harder it gets for him to explain why the rest of the UK shouldn't have it too."
    The EU aren't offering it.

    Ireland is a country in the EU. NI gets the Single Market not due to their votes, regardless of how often HYUFD and others claim that as the reason, but due to Ireland being a member state.

    If Scotland wants to be a member state it needs to become an actual country and accede instead of self identifying as a country.

    Scotland is as much a country as Isla Bryson is a woman.
    The trouble is, it is legalistic quibbling and sounds more and more like it. Like your trying to blame the Scots for the lies (with or without mens rea) of the No campaign.

    Whose fault is it the Scots were taken out against their will?

    They'll be even more furious.
    Its the Scots fault they were taken out against their will, since they rejected the opportunity for self-determination.
    Poor old England, not even having the balls to ask itself if it wanted self-determination.
    Also too scared and cowardly to let poor old Scotland have another go as they would then be Bully No Mates.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,930
    edited February 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    O/T

    Emerson has a poll showing Trump up 30% against RDS for the GOP nomination. More importantly, it also shows Trump beating Biden by 4 but Biden beating RDS by 4 and Haley by 3.

    If this doesn't change dramatically, RDS is not going to run. Yes, some polls show him better than this but he will want the consistency of knowing he can beat Trump and Biden. He hasn't got that. I still think the most likely scenario is a Trump-RDS ticket.

    DYOR

    There's huge variation in the Republican polls - Morning Consult, by contrast, has the gap as 18 points.

    Fwiw, I think there's an 70-80% chance that RDS stands. Simply, there will never be a better time than after he's cantered to a win in Florida.

    Morning Consult also has Biden beating Trump 43% to 41% today but only beating DeSantis 42% to 41%

    https://morningconsult.com/2024-gop-primary-election-tracker/
This discussion has been closed.