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The problem for Sunak remains – most voters think Brexit was wrong – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2023 in General
imageThe problem for Sunak remains – most voters think Brexit was wrong – politicalbetting.com

Yesterday was undoubtedly a big victory for Sunak but that is not the end of the matter. At some stage he will have to face up to the change in opinion on Brexit itself as evidenced in all the polls.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • WillGWillG Posts: 1,993
    This doesn't matter as Brexit is not a Thing. What matters to voters is where you go now. And if thats "Rejoin the EU" then the voters are in a very different place.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    WillG said:

    This doesn't matter as Brexit is not a Thing. What matters to voters is where you go now. And if thats "Rejoin the EU" then the voters are in a very different place.

    Where you go next is a general election.
    That's Sunak's problem.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Nigelb said:

    WillG said:

    This doesn't matter as Brexit is not a Thing. What matters to voters is where you go now. And if thats "Rejoin the EU" then the voters are in a very different place.

    Where you go next is a general election.
    That's Sunak's problem.
    He’s got 18 months to get the economy moving then, before the people have their say.
  • A couple who disappeared with their baby have been found and arrested in Brighton, but the infant is still missing, police have said.
    Constance Marten and Mark Gordon had not been seen since their car broke down near Bolton on 5 January.
    The pair were found after a sighting by a member of the public in the Stanmer Villas area on Monday evening.
    Police have launched an "urgent search" for the baby, thought to have been just days old when they disappeared.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64794712

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,769
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    WillG said:

    This doesn't matter as Brexit is not a Thing. What matters to voters is where you go now. And if thats "Rejoin the EU" then the voters are in a very different place.

    Where you go next is a general election.
    That's Sunak's problem.
    He’s got 18 months to get the economy moving then, before the people have their say.
    The economy was moving in 1997.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    WillG said:

    This doesn't matter as Brexit is not a Thing. What matters to voters is where you go now. And if thats "Rejoin the EU" then the voters are in a very different place.

    Where you go next is a general election.
    That's Sunak's problem.
    He’s got 18 months to get the economy moving then, before the people have their say.
    Assuming that might make a significant difference.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    That's excess deaths, according to the analysis.

    One patient dies every 23 minutes in England after long delay in A&E
    More than 20,000 people died in 2022 after spending at least 12 hours waiting for care, figures show
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/feb/28/one-patient-dies-every-23-minutes-in-england-after-long-delay-in-ae
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited February 2023
    Gary Lineker is the highest-paid ‘talent’ at the BBC, according to their published records. But he’s not been on the payroll, they’ve been paying him as a contractor for a decade. Now HMRC are coming after him for IR35 violations.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11800537/Gary-Linekers-lawyers-say-HMRC-assessed-BBC-4-9-million-tax-battle.html
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    WillG said:

    This doesn't matter as Brexit is not a Thing. What matters to voters is where you go now. And if thats "Rejoin the EU" then the voters are in a very different place.

    Where you go next is a general election.
    That's Sunak's problem.
    He’s got 18 months to get the economy moving then, before the people have their say.
    The economy was moving in 1997.
    True. If the inflation can go away (and fuel prices are falling, which is a good start), then people might start to feel better; but the government needs to show some missing enthusiasm to get things working better.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,769
    Sandpit said:

    Gary Lineker is the highest-paid ‘talent’ at the BBC, according to their published records. But he’s not been on the payroll, they’ve been paying him as a contractor for a decade. Now HMRC are coming after him for IR35 violations.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11800537/Gary-Linekers-lawyers-say-HMRC-assessed-BBC-4-9-million-tax-battle.html

    I'm just glad the BBC was looking to minimize costs by paying him that way.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056
    Nigelb said:

    That's excess deaths, according to the analysis.

    One patient dies every 23 minutes in England after long delay in A&E
    More than 20,000 people died in 2022 after spending at least 12 hours waiting for care, figures show
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/feb/28/one-patient-dies-every-23-minutes-in-england-after-long-delay-in-ae

    It is a pretty miserable place of work at present.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-64727516
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gary Lineker is the highest-paid ‘talent’ at the BBC, according to their published records. But he’s not been on the payroll, they’ve been paying him as a contractor for a decade. Now HMRC are coming after him for IR35 violations.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11800537/Gary-Linekers-lawyers-say-HMRC-assessed-BBC-4-9-million-tax-battle.html

    I'm just glad the BBC was looking to minimize costs by paying him that way.
    There’s been a few BBC IR35 cases, and they’ve all been lost.

    If you turn up in their car, to their studio, use their microphone; and do so on a regular basis for most of the year, then you’re an employee.

    The one that got away was Lorraine Kelly at ITV, who argued that she had significant editorial control over her show, and that she played a character on screen rather than herself.
  • Sandpit said:

    Gary Lineker is the highest-paid ‘talent’ at the BBC, according to their published records. But he’s not been on the payroll, they’ve been paying him as a contractor for a decade. Now HMRC are coming after him for IR35 violations.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11800537/Gary-Linekers-lawyers-say-HMRC-assessed-BBC-4-9-million-tax-battle.html

    The Daily Mail talking about tax affairs hahaha
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    Gary Lineker is the highest-paid ‘talent’ at the BBC, according to their published records. But he’s not been on the payroll, they’ve been paying him as a contractor for a decade. Now HMRC are coming after him for IR35 violations.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11800537/Gary-Linekers-lawyers-say-HMRC-assessed-BBC-4-9-million-tax-battle.html

    The Daily Mail talking about tax affairs hahaha
    Okay then, have the Guardian talking about tax affairs, a subject on which they are experts.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/feb/27/gary-linekers-lawyers-say-hmrc-tax-probe-looking-in-the-wrong-place
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,769
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gary Lineker is the highest-paid ‘talent’ at the BBC, according to their published records. But he’s not been on the payroll, they’ve been paying him as a contractor for a decade. Now HMRC are coming after him for IR35 violations.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11800537/Gary-Linekers-lawyers-say-HMRC-assessed-BBC-4-9-million-tax-battle.html

    I'm just glad the BBC was looking to minimize costs by paying him that way.
    There’s been a few BBC IR35 cases, and they’ve all been lost.

    If you turn up in their car, to their studio, use their microphone; and do so on a regular basis for most of the year, then you’re an employee.

    The one that got away was Lorraine Kelly at ITV, who argued that she had significant editorial control over her show, and that she played a character on screen rather than herself.
    My understanding, though, is that it is Gay Linekar who will pay the price, not the BBC.

    But, I grant you, I could be wrong.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited February 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gary Lineker is the highest-paid ‘talent’ at the BBC, according to their published records. But he’s not been on the payroll, they’ve been paying him as a contractor for a decade. Now HMRC are coming after him for IR35 violations.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11800537/Gary-Linekers-lawyers-say-HMRC-assessed-BBC-4-9-million-tax-battle.html

    I'm just glad the BBC was looking to minimize costs by paying him that way.
    There’s been a few BBC IR35 cases, and they’ve all been lost.

    If you turn up in their car, to their studio, use their microphone; and do so on a regular basis for most of the year, then you’re an employee.

    The one that got away was Lorraine Kelly at ITV, who argued that she had significant editorial control over her show, and that she played a character on screen rather than herself.
    My understanding, though, is that it is Gay Linekar who will pay the price, not the BBC.

    But, I grant you, I could be wrong.
    Yes, his lawyer was arguing that it was up to the BBC to pay the missing NI contributions, but that’s not the case.

    The law was changed a couple of years ago IIRC, so the onus is now on the employing company rather than the contractor to ensure IR35 compliance.

    The whole area is one big mess now, with the new rules making it impossible for contractors to claim travel, lodging, and subsistence expenses from pre-tax income. So contract rates have gone through the roof, and companies are scared to hire them lest they be found in breach years later.
  • Nigelb said:

    That's excess deaths, according to the analysis.

    One patient dies every 23 minutes in England after long delay in A&E
    More than 20,000 people died in 2022 after spending at least 12 hours waiting for care, figures show
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/feb/28/one-patient-dies-every-23-minutes-in-england-after-long-delay-in-ae

    *Humza must explain*
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gary Lineker is the highest-paid ‘talent’ at the BBC, according to their published records. But he’s not been on the payroll, they’ve been paying him as a contractor for a decade. Now HMRC are coming after him for IR35 violations.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11800537/Gary-Linekers-lawyers-say-HMRC-assessed-BBC-4-9-million-tax-battle.html

    I'm just glad the BBC was looking to minimize costs by paying him that way.
    There’s been a few BBC IR35 cases, and they’ve all been lost.

    If you turn up in their car, to their studio, use their microphone; and do so on a regular basis for most of the year, then you’re an employee.

    The one that got away was Lorraine Kelly at ITV, who argued that she had significant editorial control over her show, and that she played a character on screen rather than herself.
    My understanding, though, is that it is Gay Linekar who will pay the price, not the BBC.

    But, I grant you, I could be wrong.
    Yes, his lawyer was arguing that it was up to the BBC to pay the missing NI contributions, but that’s not the case.

    The law was changed a couple of years ago IIRC, so the onus is now on the employing company rather than the contractor to ensure IR35 compliance.

    The whole area is one big mess now, with the new rules making it impossible to contractors to claim travel, lodging, and subsistence expenses from pre-tax income. So contract rates have gone through the roof, and companies are scared to hire them lest they be found in breach years later.
    Isn’t IR35 due to be scrapped, for that reason? Or am I misremembering?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gary Lineker is the highest-paid ‘talent’ at the BBC, according to their published records. But he’s not been on the payroll, they’ve been paying him as a contractor for a decade. Now HMRC are coming after him for IR35 violations.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11800537/Gary-Linekers-lawyers-say-HMRC-assessed-BBC-4-9-million-tax-battle.html

    I'm just glad the BBC was looking to minimize costs by paying him that way.
    There’s been a few BBC IR35 cases, and they’ve all been lost.

    If you turn up in their car, to their studio, use their microphone; and do so on a regular basis for most of the year, then you’re an employee.

    The one that got away was Lorraine Kelly at ITV, who argued that she had significant editorial control over her show, and that she played a character on screen rather than herself.
    My understanding, though, is that it is Gay Linekar who will pay the price, not the BBC.

    But, I grant you, I could be wrong.
    Yes, his lawyer was arguing that it was up to the BBC to pay the missing NI contributions, but that’s not the case.

    The law was changed a couple of years ago IIRC, so the onus is now on the employing company rather than the contractor to ensure IR35 compliance.

    The whole area is one big mess now, with the new rules making it impossible to contractors to claim travel, lodging, and subsistence expenses from pre-tax income. So contract rates have gone through the roof, and companies are scared to hire them lest they be found in breach years later.
    Isn’t IR35 due to be scrapped, for that reason? Or am I misremembering?
    The scrapping of it was announced by chancellor Kwarteng IIRC, but I don’t think it was enacted.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gary Lineker is the highest-paid ‘talent’ at the BBC, according to their published records. But he’s not been on the payroll, they’ve been paying him as a contractor for a decade. Now HMRC are coming after him for IR35 violations.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11800537/Gary-Linekers-lawyers-say-HMRC-assessed-BBC-4-9-million-tax-battle.html

    I'm just glad the BBC was looking to minimize costs by paying him that way.
    There’s been a few BBC IR35 cases, and they’ve all been lost.

    If you turn up in their car, to their studio, use their microphone; and do so on a regular basis for most of the year, then you’re an employee.

    The one that got away was Lorraine Kelly at ITV, who argued that she had significant editorial control over her show, and that she played a character on screen rather than herself.
    My understanding, though, is that it is Gay Linekar who will pay the price, not the BBC.

    But, I grant you, I could be wrong.
    A mildly surprising revelation.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gary Lineker is the highest-paid ‘talent’ at the BBC, according to their published records. But he’s not been on the payroll, they’ve been paying him as a contractor for a decade. Now HMRC are coming after him for IR35 violations.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11800537/Gary-Linekers-lawyers-say-HMRC-assessed-BBC-4-9-million-tax-battle.html

    I'm just glad the BBC was looking to minimize costs by paying him that way.
    There’s been a few BBC IR35 cases, and they’ve all been lost.

    If you turn up in their car, to their studio, use their microphone; and do so on a regular basis for most of the year, then you’re an employee.

    The one that got away was Lorraine Kelly at ITV, who argued that she had significant editorial control over her show, and that she played a character on screen rather than herself.
    My understanding, though, is that it is Gay Linekar who will pay the price, not the BBC.

    But, I grant you, I could be wrong.
    A mildly surprising revelation.
    I thought there was something queer about that post.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gary Lineker is the highest-paid ‘talent’ at the BBC, according to their published records. But he’s not been on the payroll, they’ve been paying him as a contractor for a decade. Now HMRC are coming after him for IR35 violations.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11800537/Gary-Linekers-lawyers-say-HMRC-assessed-BBC-4-9-million-tax-battle.html

    I'm just glad the BBC was looking to minimize costs by paying him that way.
    There’s been a few BBC IR35 cases, and they’ve all been lost.

    If you turn up in their car, to their studio, use their microphone; and do so on a regular basis for most of the year, then you’re an employee.

    The one that got away was Lorraine Kelly at ITV, who argued that she had significant editorial control over her show, and that she played a character on screen rather than herself.
    My understanding, though, is that it is Gay Linekar who will pay the price, not the BBC.

    But, I grant you, I could be wrong.
    A mildly surprising revelation.
    I thought there was something queer about that post.
    He does take Pride in his work.
  • Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gary Lineker is the highest-paid ‘talent’ at the BBC, according to their published records. But he’s not been on the payroll, they’ve been paying him as a contractor for a decade. Now HMRC are coming after him for IR35 violations.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11800537/Gary-Linekers-lawyers-say-HMRC-assessed-BBC-4-9-million-tax-battle.html

    I'm just glad the BBC was looking to minimize costs by paying him that way.
    There’s been a few BBC IR35 cases, and they’ve all been lost.

    If you turn up in their car, to their studio, use their microphone; and do so on a regular basis for most of the year, then you’re an employee.

    The one that got away was Lorraine Kelly at ITV, who argued that she had significant editorial control over her show, and that she played a character on screen rather than herself.
    My understanding, though, is that it is Gay Linekar who will pay the price, not the BBC.

    But, I grant you, I could be wrong.
    A mildly surprising revelation.
    I thought there was something queer about that post.
    He does take Pride in his work.
    The important thing is not to have any prejudice.
  • Sandpit said:

    Gary Lineker is the highest-paid ‘talent’ at the BBC, according to their published records. But he’s not been on the payroll, they’ve been paying him as a contractor for a decade. Now HMRC are coming after him for IR35 violations.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11800537/Gary-Linekers-lawyers-say-HMRC-assessed-BBC-4-9-million-tax-battle.html

    Not exactly the best reporting from a rag which hates Lineker as much as it hates the BBC. Freelance vs staff has been a debate amongst broadcasters for decades. Especially when they appear on multiple broadcasters for substantial amounts of time as he does.
  • ydoethur said:

    Anyway, in important news:

    Why did so many of you keep confidently predicting an England victory? It’s your fault!

    I went to bed just after 10pm in the knowledge that New Zealand would win.

    #SeerInAllThings
  • Foxy said:

    On topic, Brexit is one reason that I won't be voting Conservative again, and one reason that I won't vote for Starmer either.

    Sooner or later parties need to acknowledge where the voters are, and that Brexit was a mistake. A mistake that we have to live with for present perhaps, but a mistake nonetheless.

    Starmer's 5 missions seems like a clever approach. Move on from narrow Brexit arguments and instead focus on the future. Nobody voted Brexit to be poorer. So focus on growth and how we get richer.

    An obvious early step will be to remove all the cost of our threatened dealignment with EEA standards. There will be harrumphing. And "do you want to stay poor?" will be the disarm.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Sandpit said:

    Gary Lineker is the highest-paid ‘talent’ at the BBC, according to their published records. But he’s not been on the payroll, they’ve been paying him as a contractor for a decade. Now HMRC are coming after him for IR35 violations.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11800537/Gary-Linekers-lawyers-say-HMRC-assessed-BBC-4-9-million-tax-battle.html

    The Daily Mail talking about tax affairs hahaha
    If only the Guardian could be as quiet on these matters. Hahhaha
  • Looks like Joe Root finally got Harry Brook back for bowling him out in the nets as a teenager. The subconscious is more powerful than we think.

    https://twitter.com/DavidMills73/status/1630461915531968513
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    On Gary Linekar having topay more tax


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    WillG said:

    This doesn't matter as Brexit is not a Thing. What matters to voters is where you go now. And if thats "Rejoin the EU" then the voters are in a very different place.

    Where you go next is a general election.
    That's Sunak's problem.
    He’s got 18 months to get the economy moving then, before the people have their say.
    The economy was moving in 1997.
    Then again, Major was a second term PM by 97.
    Sunak is probably going to fall a long way short, but unlike Major, he has at least a chance to retrieve a bit of support in the next year and a half.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Sandpit said:

    Gary Lineker is the highest-paid ‘talent’ at the BBC, according to their published records. But he’s not been on the payroll, they’ve been paying him as a contractor for a decade. Now HMRC are coming after him for IR35 violations.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11800537/Gary-Linekers-lawyers-say-HMRC-assessed-BBC-4-9-million-tax-battle.html

    The Daily Mail talking about tax affairs hahaha
    You've got to be careful not to fall into the same old trap:

    *) Left-wing person/organisation does legal tax avoidance: perfectly fine, nothing to see.
    *) Right-wing person/organisation does legal tax avoidance: BURN THEM!!!!

    I'm not into football, but from the little I see of him on the screen, Lineker comes across as a bit of a pillock - and worse, a poor communicator. He just doesn't seem to have any presence. But as I say, I don't see him much, so that might be unfair.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056

    Foxy said:

    On topic, Brexit is one reason that I won't be voting Conservative again, and one reason that I won't vote for Starmer either.

    Sooner or later parties need to acknowledge where the voters are, and that Brexit was a mistake. A mistake that we have to live with for present perhaps, but a mistake nonetheless.

    Starmer's 5 missions seems like a clever approach. Move on from narrow Brexit arguments and instead focus on the future. Nobody voted Brexit to be poorer. So focus on growth and how we get richer.

    An obvious early step will be to remove all the cost of our threatened dealignment with EEA standards. There will be harrumphing. And "do you want to stay poor?" will be the disarm.
    No, Starmer's 5 Missions were typically verbose flannel. Ed Balls is right that they need to be punchier and more retail:

    https://twitter.com/Channel4/status/1629858836055199744?t=BDj0s2q7omHfhxMvdNpPqA&s=19
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, Brexit is one reason that I won't be voting Conservative again, and one reason that I won't vote for Starmer either.

    Sooner or later parties need to acknowledge where the voters are, and that Brexit was a mistake. A mistake that we have to live with for present perhaps, but a mistake nonetheless.

    Starmer's 5 missions seems like a clever approach. Move on from narrow Brexit arguments and instead focus on the future. Nobody voted Brexit to be poorer. So focus on growth and how we get richer.

    An obvious early step will be to remove all the cost of our threatened dealignment with EEA standards. There will be harrumphing. And "do you want to stay poor?" will be the disarm.
    No, Starmer's 5 Missions were typically verbose flannel. Ed Balls is right that they need to be punchier and more retail:

    https://twitter.com/Channel4/status/1629858836055199744?t=BDj0s2q7omHfhxMvdNpPqA&s=19
    Carve them into a massive rock, that should do the trick!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056

    Sandpit said:

    Gary Lineker is the highest-paid ‘talent’ at the BBC, according to their published records. But he’s not been on the payroll, they’ve been paying him as a contractor for a decade. Now HMRC are coming after him for IR35 violations.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11800537/Gary-Linekers-lawyers-say-HMRC-assessed-BBC-4-9-million-tax-battle.html

    The Daily Mail talking about tax affairs hahaha
    You've got to be careful not to fall into the same old trap:

    *) Left-wing person/organisation does legal tax avoidance: perfectly fine, nothing to see.
    *) Right-wing person/organisation does legal tax avoidance: BURN THEM!!!!

    I'm not into football, but from the little I see of him on the screen, Lineker comes across as a bit of a pillock - and worse, a poor communicator. He just doesn't seem to have any presence. But as I say, I don't see him much, so that might be unfair.
    Lineker is a bit of a pillock as part of his on screen persona, but that self deprecating style does help draw comments from the others on MOTD.

  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, Brexit is one reason that I won't be voting Conservative again, and one reason that I won't vote for Starmer either.

    Sooner or later parties need to acknowledge where the voters are, and that Brexit was a mistake. A mistake that we have to live with for present perhaps, but a mistake nonetheless.

    Starmer's 5 missions seems like a clever approach. Move on from narrow Brexit arguments and instead focus on the future. Nobody voted Brexit to be poorer. So focus on growth and how we get richer.

    An obvious early step will be to remove all the cost of our threatened dealignment with EEA standards. There will be harrumphing. And "do you want to stay poor?" will be the disarm.
    No, Starmer's 5 Missions were typically verbose flannel. Ed Balls is right that they need to be punchier and more retail:

    https://twitter.com/Channel4/status/1629858836055199744?t=BDj0s2q7omHfhxMvdNpPqA&s=19
    Neither of us are voting Labour so our perspectives won't concern them too much. My point is that verbose flannel is probably all he can get away with electorally. They are specifically vague - because they channel the 5 Beveridge ills which the Attlee government attacked, and also because acting *against* Brexit can be shown as what people have now voted for.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, Brexit is one reason that I won't be voting Conservative again, and one reason that I won't vote for Starmer either.

    Sooner or later parties need to acknowledge where the voters are, and that Brexit was a mistake. A mistake that we have to live with for present perhaps, but a mistake nonetheless.

    Starmer's 5 missions seems like a clever approach. Move on from narrow Brexit arguments and instead focus on the future. Nobody voted Brexit to be poorer. So focus on growth and how we get richer.

    An obvious early step will be to remove all the cost of our threatened dealignment with EEA standards. There will be harrumphing. And "do you want to stay poor?" will be the disarm.
    No, Starmer's 5 Missions were typically verbose flannel. Ed Balls is right that they need to be punchier and more retail:

    https://twitter.com/Channel4/status/1629858836055199744?t=BDj0s2q7omHfhxMvdNpPqA&s=19
    Slight sense that they focus grouped the optimum number of ‘missions’ then plucked the missions from the air to fit that number.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056

    On topic:

    I suspect we've just witnessed the death of Brexit As A Belief System. Go back a few years and it was possible to say "this is a sellout" the moment the deal was announced. Now, nobody more mainstream than Richard Tice is trying that.

    So without the old time religion, does this hang together? It might, but I'm not sure it does. So the ingredients of UK divergence have to stand by their own merits.

    I suspect that points to a lot of Brapprochment. For all the bluster of "we'll just make arrangements with better scientists instead", being in Horizon makes sense. The same is probably true of Erasmus. There simply aren't alternative trade deals that are worth giving up on the SM and CU for.

    Presented as a list of something for something steps, my hunch is that every substep up Barnier's Staircase would be individually popular. You only get to 52% by adding lots of individual complaints. So the choice for future UK is to start making those steps or stay where we are for fear of where future future UK will end up.

    Yes, and the Lib Dems are the party that plans to climb that Barnier staircase, 1 step at a time. I don't trust Starmer to do so.
  • Possibly the best test I’ve ever seen
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543

    On topic:

    I suspect we've just witnessed the death of Brexit As A Belief System. Go back a few years and it was possible to say "this is a sellout" the moment the deal was announced. Now, nobody more mainstream than Richard Tice is trying that.

    So without the old time religion, does this hang together? It might, but I'm not sure it does. So the ingredients of UK divergence have to stand by their own merits.

    I suspect that points to a lot of Brapprochment. For all the bluster of "we'll just make arrangements with better scientists instead", being in Horizon makes sense. The same is probably true of Erasmus. There simply aren't alternative trade deals that are worth giving up on the SM and CU for.

    Presented as a list of something for something steps, my hunch is that every substep up Barnier's Staircase would be individually popular. You only get to 52% by adding lots of individual complaints. So the choice for future UK is to start making those steps or stay where we are for fear of where future future UK will end up.

    Assuming Starmer is next PM I think these Barnier steps will be attractive. Starmer has his better growth than the G7 pledge to try to meet when Brexit is a drag on that growth.

    The trickiness I think will be with engaging the EU who have at least ten higher priorities than new arrangements with the UK.
  • FF43 said:

    On topic:

    I suspect we've just witnessed the death of Brexit As A Belief System. Go back a few years and it was possible to say "this is a sellout" the moment the deal was announced. Now, nobody more mainstream than Richard Tice is trying that.

    So without the old time religion, does this hang together? It might, but I'm not sure it does. So the ingredients of UK divergence have to stand by their own merits.

    I suspect that points to a lot of Brapprochment. For all the bluster of "we'll just make arrangements with better scientists instead", being in Horizon makes sense. The same is probably true of Erasmus. There simply aren't alternative trade deals that are worth giving up on the SM and CU for.

    Presented as a list of something for something steps, my hunch is that every substep up Barnier's Staircase would be individually popular. You only get to 52% by adding lots of individual complaints. So the choice for future UK is to start making those steps or stay where we are for fear of where future future UK will end up.

    Assuming Starmer is next PM I think these Barnier steps will be attractive. Starmer has his better growth than the G7 pledge to try to meet when Brexit is a drag on that growth.

    The trickiness I think will be with engaging the EU who have at least ten higher priorities than new arrangements with the UK.
    We can make it very easy - simply drop our resistance and position ourselves as New Norway.

    There is a load of theoretical hot air thrown around as "betrayal" of something which was described as the polar opposite during the referendum campaign. So I expect little resistance from the public - and the remaining ERG foamers will be pilloried.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Possibly the best test I’ve ever seen

    Those of us who have a few more years on the clock, remember the 2nd Ashes Test from Headingly in 2005 - when England won by 2 runs.

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/australia-tour-of-england-and-scotland-2005-139019/england-vs-australia-2nd-test-215010/full-scorecard
  • Off-topic, my switch to shooting and editing in 4k is stretching my computer gear and broadband to the limit. 16MB of RAM isn't enough to reliably render 30 minutes of 4k video.

    So I may need to invest in new kit as my channel has accelerated hard on every metric and I have half a dozen videos shot / partly edited. Haven't used a Mac in decades so not going to buy one of those. More PC power perhaps as I don't think my otherwise fabulous Surface Pro 8 was designed for this.

    And broadband? With my current deal up looking seriously at Starlink...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    edited February 2023
    Also an important day in Test cricket for another reason.

    Today, Temba Bavuma will captain South Africa in a Test for the first time.

    He is the third non-white South African Test captain after Ashwell Prince and Hashim Amla.

    But he is the first black African.

    It's something of a shame that it will be overshadowed by questions about his place in the side, given his Hick-like inability to put regular big scores on the board, but it's still a big moment.

    And it's against the West Indies, to underline the symbolism further.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Off-topic, my switch to shooting and editing in 4k is stretching my computer gear and broadband to the limit. 16MB of RAM isn't enough to reliably render 30 minutes of 4k video.

    So I may need to invest in new kit as my channel has accelerated hard on every metric and I have half a dozen videos shot / partly edited. Haven't used a Mac in decades so not going to buy one of those. More PC power perhaps as I don't think my otherwise fabulous Surface Pro 8 was designed for this.

    And broadband? With my current deal up looking seriously at Starlink...

    If you’re going to be doing a load of 4k video editing, it’s probably worth investing in a proper workstation PC with a good GPU.

    The HP Z Series are pretty good.
    https://www.hp.com/emea_middle_east-en/workstations/desktop-workstation-pc.html

    Starlink’s uplink speed is around 8mbps.
  • I think Lineker is a prat for what it is worth
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    Sandpit said:

    Possibly the best test I’ve ever seen

    Those of us who have a few more years on the clock, remember the 2nd Ashes Test from Headingly in 2005 - when England won by 2 runs.

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/australia-tour-of-england-and-scotland-2005-139019/england-vs-australia-2nd-test-215010/full-scorecard
    So that one wasn't particularly close then?

    England are box office right now. The secondary market for Ashes tickets is already over £500 for a day.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,769

    Off-topic, my switch to shooting and editing in 4k is stretching my computer gear and broadband to the limit. 16MB of RAM isn't enough to reliably render 30 minutes of 4k video.

    So I may need to invest in new kit as my channel has accelerated hard on every metric and I have half a dozen videos shot / partly edited. Haven't used a Mac in decades so not going to buy one of those. More PC power perhaps as I don't think my otherwise fabulous Surface Pro 8 was designed for this.

    And broadband? With my current deal up looking seriously at Starlink...

    16mb?

    You're right, that's not going to be sufficient.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    DavidL said:

    The real dividend to come out of these talks is not NI, which had some irritations but also a highly favoured position both in the SM and out of it at the same time, Schrodinger's cat style, already. The real benefit is the highly constructive and polite relationship Rishi has built with the EU as a whole. This has already paid dividends with the Horizon program but I have little doubt there will be more to come.

    If Rishi can continue down this path then I genuinely believe that Brexit will become a non issue for all except a tiny minority who are obsessed with it and the loss of their EU citizenship. This minority will no doubt be loud, just as the ERG nutters/Farage were loud in the past, but the vast majority will simply not care anymore. We will just have to fill our threads up with something else.

    The deal has already had one important failure.

    Suella Braverman hasn't resigned over it.

    That's a blow, but on the whole I'm still inclined to say on balance this is a good deal.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    dixiedean said:
    We need inflation down. Urgently. We do not need to boost fuel prices again. The collateral damage in inflation, continuing public sector unrest and impairment of economic activity is simply too high a price.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056
    DavidL said:

    The real dividend to come out of these talks is not NI, which had some irritations but also a highly favoured position both in the SM and out of it at the same time, Schrodinger's cat style, already. The real benefit is the highly constructive and polite relationship Rishi has built with the EU as a whole. This has already paid dividends with the Horizon program but I have little doubt there will be more to come.

    If Rishi can continue down this path then I genuinely believe that Brexit will become a non issue for all except a tiny minority who are obsessed with it and the loss of their EU citizenship. This minority will no doubt be loud, just as the ERG nutters/Farage were loud in the past, but the vast majority will simply not care anymore. We will just have to fill our threads up with something else.

    There was a time not so long ago when not just NI enjoyed being in both the UK and the EU Single Market. We all had that advantage.
  • DavidL said:

    The real dividend to come out of these talks is not NI, which had some irritations but also a highly favoured position both in the SM and out of it at the same time, Schrodinger's cat style, already. The real benefit is the highly constructive and polite relationship Rishi has built with the EU as a whole. This has already paid dividends with the Horizon program but I have little doubt there will be more to come.

    If Rishi can continue down this path then I genuinely believe that Brexit will become a non issue for all except a tiny minority who are obsessed with it and the loss of their EU citizenship. This minority will no doubt be loud, just as the ERG nutters/Farage were loud in the past, but the vast majority will simply not care anymore. We will just have to fill our threads up with something else.

    I absolutely agree. People were gaslit this line that the EU was the evil empire, imposing silly regulations and unwanted laws upon us. Remember that a certain ABdP Johnson was sacked for making up lies about what the evil empire was doing to us.

    As I always pull it back to - people voted for Brexit to be better off. So if dropping nonsense like dealignment, or allowing people to come work here for as long as is needed, or opening our borders to drop the trade and tourism barriers means that people feel a tangible benefit, it will happen.

    Brexit has a direct impact on things like the current fruit and vegetable shortage. It didn't create the weather, or spike energy prices. But it did mean that labour costs for UK producers skyrocketed when they couldn't employ enough pickers, and the ones they could employ had to be hired TWICE as a 6 month work visa doesn't cover the 9 month requirement. And the import and travel costs meaning much more expensive to sell here than in the EEA hence what has been grown staying there.

    People can now see that. Even the trade groups who hoped it would free them from regulations are now saying how much worse off they are. This basic reality can't be avoided forever. The ERG and DUP nutters increasingly sound as mentalist as flat earthers.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited February 2023
    DavidL said:

    The real dividend to come out of these talks is not NI, which had some irritations but also a highly favoured position both in the SM and out of it at the same time, Schrodinger's cat style, already. The real benefit is the highly constructive and polite relationship Rishi has built with the EU as a whole. This has already paid dividends with the Horizon program but I have little doubt there will be more to come.

    If Rishi can continue down this path then I genuinely believe that Brexit will become a non issue for all except a tiny minority who are obsessed with it and the loss of their EU citizenship. This minority will no doubt be loud, just as the ERG nutters/Farage were loud in the past, but the vast majority will simply not care anymore. We will just have to fill our threads up with something else.

    Indeed so. It was always going to happen eventually, once some time had passed and most of the original protagonists had been replaced. Johnson and Junker were more adversarial politicians, than Sunak and von der Layen.

    Situations such as the pandemic and the Ukraine war have shown not only the benefits of co-operation, but also how having rivals such as the UK (and Switzerland) sitting outside the bloc, can push decision-making in the right direction, perhaps faster than might otherwise be the case.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    edited February 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    Off-topic, my switch to shooting and editing in 4k is stretching my computer gear and broadband to the limit. 16MB of RAM isn't enough to reliably render 30 minutes of 4k video.

    So I may need to invest in new kit as my channel has accelerated hard on every metric and I have half a dozen videos shot / partly edited. Haven't used a Mac in decades so not going to buy one of those. More PC power perhaps as I don't think my otherwise fabulous Surface Pro 8 was designed for this.

    And broadband? With my current deal up looking seriously at Starlink...

    16mb?

    You're right, that's not going to be sufficient.
    lol - 16GB!

    Oddly have found that exporting first to 1080p then to 4k is doing the job...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,781
    edited February 2023
    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic, my switch to shooting and editing in 4k is stretching my computer gear and broadband to the limit. 16MB of RAM isn't enough to reliably render 30 minutes of 4k video.

    So I may need to invest in new kit as my channel has accelerated hard on every metric and I have half a dozen videos shot / partly edited. Haven't used a Mac in decades so not going to buy one of those. More PC power perhaps as I don't think my otherwise fabulous Surface Pro 8 was designed for this.

    And broadband? With my current deal up looking seriously at Starlink...

    If you’re going to be doing a load of 4k video editing, it’s probably worth investing in a proper workstation PC with a good GPU.

    The HP Z Series are pretty good.
    https://www.hp.com/emea_middle_east-en/workstations/desktop-workstation-pc.html

    Starlink’s uplink speed is around 8mbps.
    Building my PC was one if the most satisfying things I've done, fwiw. Most components from 2016 and still going strong for gaming/photo editing etc.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    edited February 2023
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    The real dividend to come out of these talks is not NI, which had some irritations but also a highly favoured position both in the SM and out of it at the same time, Schrodinger's cat style, already. The real benefit is the highly constructive and polite relationship Rishi has built with the EU as a whole. This has already paid dividends with the Horizon program but I have little doubt there will be more to come.

    If Rishi can continue down this path then I genuinely believe that Brexit will become a non issue for all except a tiny minority who are obsessed with it and the loss of their EU citizenship. This minority will no doubt be loud, just as the ERG nutters/Farage were loud in the past, but the vast majority will simply not care anymore. We will just have to fill our threads up with something else.

    The deal has already had one important failure.

    Suella Braverman hasn't resigned over it.

    That's a blow, but on the whole I'm still inclined to say on balance this is a good deal.
    That is indeed disappointing. There must be something else she would resign for. A restoration of citizenship for Begum? I would add in passing that Camilla Long's article in the ST is a superb piece of writing (Ie I agree with it completely). It contains this little gem:
    "She is often described as a "polarising figure" but that is not really true: everyone is agreed she is a nightmare...But monsters deserve justice too."
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056
    dixiedean said:
    I note that the days that the Junior doctors are striking are the Monday to Wednesday of Budget week. 2% in a time of 10%+ inflation was an insult, and I don't blame them (though will be covering them!).

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    ydoethur said:

    Anyway, in important news:

    Why did so many of you keep confidently predicting an England victory? It’s your fault!

    Hindsight is a wonderful thing. On reflection it might have been better to bat on and make them bat on a day 5 wicket.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic, my switch to shooting and editing in 4k is stretching my computer gear and broadband to the limit. 16MB of RAM isn't enough to reliably render 30 minutes of 4k video.

    So I may need to invest in new kit as my channel has accelerated hard on every metric and I have half a dozen videos shot / partly edited. Haven't used a Mac in decades so not going to buy one of those. More PC power perhaps as I don't think my otherwise fabulous Surface Pro 8 was designed for this.

    And broadband? With my current deal up looking seriously at Starlink...

    If you’re going to be doing a load of 4k video editing, it’s probably worth investing in a proper workstation PC with a good GPU.

    The HP Z Series are pretty good.
    https://www.hp.com/emea_middle_east-en/workstations/desktop-workstation-pc.html

    Starlink’s uplink speed is around 8mbps.
    Building my PC was one if the most satisfying things I've done, fwiw. Most components from 2016 and still going strong for gaming/photo editing etc.
    Building PCs is great fun. Back in the day, I used to make some money as a student by building them for friends. A good mate of mine worked in sales at Scan for a few years, which was always good for getting new bits and pieces.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,043
    DavidL said:

    The real dividend to come out of these talks is not NI, which had some irritations but also a highly favoured position both in the SM and out of it at the same time, Schrodinger's cat style, already. The real benefit is the highly constructive and polite relationship Rishi has built with the EU as a whole. This has already paid dividends with the Horizon program but I have little doubt there will be more to come.

    If Rishi can continue down this path then I genuinely believe that Brexit will become a non issue for all except a tiny minority who are obsessed with it and the loss of their EU citizenship. This minority will no doubt be loud, just as the ERG nutters/Farage were loud in the past, but the vast majority will simply not care anymore. We will just have to fill our threads up with something else.

    I think this is an enduringly tempting belief but not the full picture. Remember Tony Blair's charm offensive with the EU? All he succeeded in doing was giving a portion of the rebate back in return for some Scotch mist from France on agriculture. Rishi was uniquely fortunate, because Truss and Johnson had instigated legislation via the Protocol bill to unwind the EU position in NI
    completely, and then gone. With them as 'bad cop' he was able to be 'good cop' and adopt a far more conciliatory stance, with the enduring threat of the bill behind him if the EU did not play ball. I agree with being friendly and playing well with others, but it gets you nowhere if you don't have the negotiating position/firmness of intention to back it up.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Off-topic:

    "A German rail operator took its trains out of service after apparently discovering a serious safety issue. but after four days of disruption they realised there was actually no fault and they had just taken incorrect measurements"

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1630313301925154818

    Ooops. But better safe than sorry...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,735

    I agree with being friendly and playing well with others, but it gets you nowhere if you don't have the negotiating position/firmness of intention to back it up.

    BoZo and Frost tried the "we have the negotiating position of no deal and firmness of intention to use it" and came away with nothing to show for it
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    DavidL said:

    The real dividend to come out of these talks is not NI, which had some irritations but also a highly favoured position both in the SM and out of it at the same time, Schrodinger's cat style, already. The real benefit is the highly constructive and polite relationship Rishi has built with the EU as a whole. This has already paid dividends with the Horizon program but I have little doubt there will be more to come.

    If Rishi can continue down this path then I genuinely believe that Brexit will become a non issue for all except a tiny minority who are obsessed with it and the loss of their EU citizenship. This minority will no doubt be loud, just as the ERG nutters/Farage were loud in the past, but the vast majority will simply not care anymore. We will just have to fill our threads up with something else.

    More to the point, they were never going to vote Tory anyway - and hadn't done so in 2017 or 2019 either.

    They are not the voters Rishi needs back.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,043
    I think the deal is testing all our political positions. Rishi non-fans like myself have to admit he's done well. Rishi supporters want to bask in something going right for him, but don't like acknowledging the role of the protocol bill in bolstering his position. 'Dull competence' fans will be disappointed that there hasn't been a bloodsoaked showdown with the ERG and DUP, restoring the glory days of Osborne. Hardcore remainers are trying to make this about rejoining the single market, but probably privately worried that if it works, this takes away a thorn in Brexit's side, making rejoining less likely. Nobody on PB got everything they wanted, everybody got a bit.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic, my switch to shooting and editing in 4k is stretching my computer gear and broadband to the limit. 16MB of RAM isn't enough to reliably render 30 minutes of 4k video.

    So I may need to invest in new kit as my channel has accelerated hard on every metric and I have half a dozen videos shot / partly edited. Haven't used a Mac in decades so not going to buy one of those. More PC power perhaps as I don't think my otherwise fabulous Surface Pro 8 was designed for this.

    And broadband? With my current deal up looking seriously at Starlink...

    If you’re going to be doing a load of 4k video editing, it’s probably worth investing in a proper workstation PC with a good GPU.

    The HP Z Series are pretty good.
    https://www.hp.com/emea_middle_east-en/workstations/desktop-workstation-pc.html

    Starlink’s uplink speed is around 8mbps.
    Building my PC was one if the most satisfying things I've done, fwiw. Most components from 2016 and still going strong for gaming/photo editing etc.
    Building PCs is great fun. Back in the day, I used to make some money as a student by building them for friends. A good mate of mine worked in sales at Scan for a few years, which was always good for getting new bits and pieces.
    I used to do this a couple of decades ago (I'm getting old). A somewhat surprising issue was people selling components that were not as advertised - memory that was at a slower speed; processors that were not the spec advertised etc. Even from 'reliable' companies.

    I have vague memories of a company in Cambridge being done for selling processors that were not as specified. Vaguer memories point to them having altered the internal chip ID... though I can't say how possible that is now.

    It'd be interesting to know if that's still an issue.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,043
    Scott_xP said:

    I agree with being friendly and playing well with others, but it gets you nowhere if you don't have the negotiating position/firmness of intention to back it up.

    BoZo and Frost tried the "we have the negotiating position of no deal and firmness of intention to use it" and came away with nothing to show for it
    But they were lying, and the EU knew that.
  • Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic, my switch to shooting and editing in 4k is stretching my computer gear and broadband to the limit. 16MB of RAM isn't enough to reliably render 30 minutes of 4k video.

    So I may need to invest in new kit as my channel has accelerated hard on every metric and I have half a dozen videos shot / partly edited. Haven't used a Mac in decades so not going to buy one of those. More PC power perhaps as I don't think my otherwise fabulous Surface Pro 8 was designed for this.

    And broadband? With my current deal up looking seriously at Starlink...

    If you’re going to be doing a load of 4k video editing, it’s probably worth investing in a proper workstation PC with a good GPU.

    The HP Z Series are pretty good.
    https://www.hp.com/emea_middle_east-en/workstations/desktop-workstation-pc.html

    Starlink’s uplink speed is around 8mbps.
    Building my PC was one if the most satisfying things I've done, fwiw. Most components from 2016 and still going strong for gaming/photo editing etc.
    Building PCs is great fun. Back in the day, I used to make some money as a student by building them for friends. A good mate of mine worked in sales at Scan for a few years, which was always good for getting new bits and pieces.
    I used to build them as well. Been a while though...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Scott_xP said:

    I agree with being friendly and playing well with others, but it gets you nowhere if you don't have the negotiating position/firmness of intention to back it up.

    BoZo and Frost tried the "we have the negotiating position of no deal and firmness of intention to use it" and came away with nothing to show for it
    And what did the EU come away with since 2016?

    The EU put up a brick wall. Johnson and Frost butted against it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic, my switch to shooting and editing in 4k is stretching my computer gear and broadband to the limit. 16MB of RAM isn't enough to reliably render 30 minutes of 4k video.

    So I may need to invest in new kit as my channel has accelerated hard on every metric and I have half a dozen videos shot / partly edited. Haven't used a Mac in decades so not going to buy one of those. More PC power perhaps as I don't think my otherwise fabulous Surface Pro 8 was designed for this.

    And broadband? With my current deal up looking seriously at Starlink...

    If you’re going to be doing a load of 4k video editing, it’s probably worth investing in a proper workstation PC with a good GPU.

    The HP Z Series are pretty good.
    https://www.hp.com/emea_middle_east-en/workstations/desktop-workstation-pc.html

    Starlink’s uplink speed is around 8mbps.
    My Starlink uplink speed is currently 13....
  • I think the deal is testing all our political positions. Rishi non-fans like myself have to admit he's done well. Rishi supporters want to bask in something going right for him, but don't like acknowledging the role of the protocol bill in bolstering his position. 'Dull competence' fans will be disappointed that there hasn't been a bloodsoaked showdown with the ERG and DUP, restoring the glory days of Osborne. Hardcore remainers are trying to make this about rejoining the single market, but probably privately worried that if it works, this takes away a thorn in Brexit's side, making rejoining less likely. Nobody on PB got everything they wanted, everybody got a bit.

    I'm delighted for Sunak, but more importantly I'm delighted for NI. No longer a political football being dangled off the cliff against their will.

    Next challenge of course is getting the bowler-hatted twats and the mouth-foamer ERG to at least acquiesce. I don't think this is done and dusted yet.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Possibly the best test I’ve ever seen

    Those of us who have a few more years on the clock, remember the 2nd Ashes Test from Headingly in 2005 - when England won by 2 runs.

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/australia-tour-of-england-and-scotland-2005-139019/england-vs-australia-2nd-test-215010/full-scorecard
    So that one wasn't particularly close then?

    England are box office right now. The secondary market for Ashes tickets is already over £500 for a day.
    After the pandemic, tickets for almost every major sports event or concert have sold out in record time. It’s now pretty much impossible to get grandstand tickets for any European F1 race this year! Only Bahrain and Baku have seats available.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,769

    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic, my switch to shooting and editing in 4k is stretching my computer gear and broadband to the limit. 16MB of RAM isn't enough to reliably render 30 minutes of 4k video.

    So I may need to invest in new kit as my channel has accelerated hard on every metric and I have half a dozen videos shot / partly edited. Haven't used a Mac in decades so not going to buy one of those. More PC power perhaps as I don't think my otherwise fabulous Surface Pro 8 was designed for this.

    And broadband? With my current deal up looking seriously at Starlink...

    If you’re going to be doing a load of 4k video editing, it’s probably worth investing in a proper workstation PC with a good GPU.

    The HP Z Series are pretty good.
    https://www.hp.com/emea_middle_east-en/workstations/desktop-workstation-pc.html

    Starlink’s uplink speed is around 8mbps.
    My Starlink uplink speed is currently 13....
    Kbps?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571

    ydoethur said:

    Anyway, in important news:

    Why did so many of you keep confidently predicting an England victory? It’s your fault!

    Hindsight is a wonderful thing. On reflection it might have been better to bat on and make them bat on a day 5 wicket.
    Not entirely hindsight.
    Some were rightly saying that enforcing the follow on means tired bowlers.
    With Broad and Anderson not exactly in their prime, and Stokes with a dodgy knee, a rapid 250 dec would probably have been a better bet.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    WillG said:

    This doesn't matter as Brexit is not a Thing. What matters to voters is where you go now. And if thats "Rejoin the EU" then the voters are in a very different place.

    Where you go next is a general election.
    That's Sunak's problem.
    He’s got 18 months to get the economy moving then, before the people have their say.
    The economy was moving in 1997.
    Starmer isn't Blair though.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Possibly the best test I’ve ever seen

    Those of us who have a few more years on the clock, remember the 2nd Ashes Test from Headingly in 2005 - when England won by 2 runs.

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/australia-tour-of-england-and-scotland-2005-139019/england-vs-australia-2nd-test-215010/full-scorecard
    So that one wasn't particularly close then?

    England are box office right now. The secondary market for Ashes tickets is already over £500 for a day.
    So I got a bargain when I paid £165 for Day 1 at Lord's?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    edited February 2023
    A moment of revelation to compare with Archimedes, Saul of Tarsus and the PBer who reverse ferreted over Trump & the EU.


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Possibly the best test I’ve ever seen

    Those of us who have a few more years on the clock, remember the 2nd Ashes Test from Headingly in 2005 - when England won by 2 runs.

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/australia-tour-of-england-and-scotland-2005-139019/england-vs-australia-2nd-test-215010/full-scorecard
    So that one wasn't particularly close then?

    England are box office right now. The secondary market for Ashes tickets is already over £500 for a day.
    So I got a bargain when I paid £165 for Day 1 at Lord's?
    Yep, you can still get day 5 tickets but how often do England play day 5? Even in the current test they would not have done so but for the time lost to rain on days 1 and 2.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,735
    @paulwaugh
    In trumpeting his Windsor deal @RishiSunak on @BBCr4today inadvertently makes the case against Brexit:
    "Northern Ireland...has access to the EU market, which makes it an incredibly attractive place to invest for business."
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878

    On topic:

    I suspect we've just witnessed the death of Brexit As A Belief System. Go back a few years and it was possible to say "this is a sellout" the moment the deal was announced. Now, nobody more mainstream than Richard Tice is trying that.

    So without the old time religion, does this hang together? It might, but I'm not sure it does. So the ingredients of UK divergence have to stand by their own merits.

    I suspect that points to a lot of Brapprochment. For all the bluster of "we'll just make arrangements with better scientists instead", being in Horizon makes sense. The same is probably true of Erasmus. There simply aren't alternative trade deals that are worth giving up on the SM and CU for.

    Presented as a list of something for something steps, my hunch is that every substep up Barnier's Staircase would be individually popular. You only get to 52% by adding lots of individual complaints. So the choice for future UK is to start making those steps or stay where we are for fear of where future future UK will end up.

    Re Erasmus, I’m still hosting European students under the scheme, and our Dep will send around 20 students overseas for a semester next academic year. Being in Erasmus should not be at any price - there are alternatives.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, Brexit is one reason that I won't be voting Conservative again, and one reason that I won't vote for Starmer either.

    Sooner or later parties need to acknowledge where the voters are, and that Brexit was a mistake. A mistake that we have to live with for present perhaps, but a mistake nonetheless.

    Starmer's 5 missions seems like a clever approach. Move on from narrow Brexit arguments and instead focus on the future. Nobody voted Brexit to be poorer. So focus on growth and how we get richer.

    An obvious early step will be to remove all the cost of our threatened dealignment with EEA standards. There will be harrumphing. And "do you want to stay poor?" will be the disarm.
    No, Starmer's 5 Missions were typically verbose flannel. Ed Balls is right that they need to be punchier and more retail:

    https://twitter.com/Channel4/status/1629858836055199744?t=BDj0s2q7omHfhxMvdNpPqA&s=19
    Neither of us are voting Labour so our perspectives won't concern them too much. My point is that verbose flannel is probably all he can get away with electorally. They are specifically vague - because they channel the 5 Beveridge ills which the Attlee government attacked, and also because acting *against* Brexit can be shown as what people have now voted for.
    And the point is that there'll be a good percentage of voters who know nothing about them, a significant percentage who have heard something about the five missions and know nothing, or nothing other than one or to headlines, about them, and a smaller percentage like most of us who either heard the speech or the interview or have read through the missions in detail.

    Eighteen months out for the election the object is to pitch to the middle group, get some airtime, and give Labour spokespeople something to refer to as shorthand whenever they are asked what their priorities are.

    For those of us wanting some idea of what Labour would actually do, it doesn't help much, and we can only hope there is more forthcoming before the election comes.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,584
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    WillG said:

    This doesn't matter as Brexit is not a Thing. What matters to voters is where you go now. And if thats "Rejoin the EU" then the voters are in a very different place.

    Where you go next is a general election.
    That's Sunak's problem.
    He’s got 18 months to get the economy moving then, before the people have their say.
    The economy was moving in 1997.
    Starmer isn't Blair though.
    And we can thank the Lord for such mercies
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Possibly the best test I’ve ever seen

    Those of us who have a few more years on the clock, remember the 2nd Ashes Test from Headingly in 2005 - when England won by 2 runs.

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/australia-tour-of-england-and-scotland-2005-139019/england-vs-australia-2nd-test-215010/full-scorecard
    So that one wasn't particularly close then?

    England are box office right now. The secondary market for Ashes tickets is already over £500 for a day.
    2005 was epic - the Aussies coming to the end of their period of dominance, and an England team coming to a peak with aggressive batsmen and a four man pace attack with skill, pace and variety.
    The match that ended last night was great, but still a level below 2005.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited February 2023
    Yet the 34% who think Britain was right to Leave the EU is still higher than the current Tory voteshare.

    If Sunak want beyond yesterday's new deal with the EU on Northern Ireland to try and rejoin the EU he would not only lose most of that 34% to RefUK, he would also still fail to win most of the 53% who think Brexit was wrong and would stay Labour or LD.

    The Tories would end up with about the 9% they got under May in the 2019 European elections and Farage would be Leader of the Opposition.

    Starmer also is fully aware that while 48% voted Remain, 2/3 of Westminster constituencies voted Leave. So to get most seats or a majority under FPTP he has to respect the Brexit vote, even if he puts forward a softer Brexit Deal for GB than Boris got if he becomes UK PM
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    The real dividend to come out of these talks is not NI, which had some irritations but also a highly favoured position both in the SM and out of it at the same time, Schrodinger's cat style, already. The real benefit is the highly constructive and polite relationship Rishi has built with the EU as a whole. This has already paid dividends with the Horizon program but I have little doubt there will be more to come.

    If Rishi can continue down this path then I genuinely believe that Brexit will become a non issue for all except a tiny minority who are obsessed with it and the loss of their EU citizenship. This minority will no doubt be loud, just as the ERG nutters/Farage were loud in the past, but the vast majority will simply not care anymore. We will just have to fill our threads up with something else.

    The deal has already had one important failure.

    Suella Braverman hasn't resigned over it.

    That's a blow, but on the whole I'm still inclined to say on balance this is a good deal.
    That is indeed disappointing. There must be something else she would resign for. A restoration of citizenship for Begum? I would add in passing that Camilla Long's article in the ST is a superb piece of writing (Ie I agree with it completely). It contains this little gem:
    "She is often described as a "polarising figure" but that is not really true: everyone is agreed she is a nightmare...But monsters deserve justice too."
    Begum or Braverman?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,530
    edited February 2023
    The EU doesn’t respond to childish threats . Sunak got a good deal because they felt he could be trusted to honour what he signs and would act in good faith.

    There was no trust left with Johnson and the EU would never have given him those concessions.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,138
    HYUFD said:

    Yet the 34% who think Britain was right to Leave the EU is still higher than the current Tory voteshare.

    If Sunak want beyond yesterday's new deal with the EU on Northern Ireland to try and rejoin the EU he would not only lose most of that 34% to RefUK, he would also still fail to win most of the 53% who think Brexit was wrong and would stay Labour or LD.

    The Tories would end up with about the 9% they got under May in the 2019 European elections and Farage would be Leader of the Opposition.

    Starmer also is fully aware that while 48% voted Remain, 2/3 of Westminster constituencies voted Leave. So to get most seats or a majority under FPTP he has to respect the Brexit vote, even if he puts forward a softer Brexit Deal for GB than Boris does if he becomes UK PM

    Your last para doesn't make sense. 2016 was 2016. The sentiment has changed.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762

    DavidL said:

    The real dividend to come out of these talks is not NI, which had some irritations but also a highly favoured position both in the SM and out of it at the same time, Schrodinger's cat style, already. The real benefit is the highly constructive and polite relationship Rishi has built with the EU as a whole. This has already paid dividends with the Horizon program but I have little doubt there will be more to come.

    If Rishi can continue down this path then I genuinely believe that Brexit will become a non issue for all except a tiny minority who are obsessed with it and the loss of their EU citizenship. This minority will no doubt be loud, just as the ERG nutters/Farage were loud in the past, but the vast majority will simply not care anymore. We will just have to fill our threads up with something else.

    More to the point, they were never going to vote Tory anyway - and hadn't done so in 2017 or 2019 either.

    They are not the voters Rishi needs back.
    He defo needs them back Mark. Otherwise we are going to spend the next 5 years talking about blue wall seats in the same tedious way we talk endlessly about red wall seats in this Parliament.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,769
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    WillG said:

    This doesn't matter as Brexit is not a Thing. What matters to voters is where you go now. And if thats "Rejoin the EU" then the voters are in a very different place.

    Where you go next is a general election.
    That's Sunak's problem.
    He’s got 18 months to get the economy moving then, before the people have their say.
    The economy was moving in 1997.
    Starmer isn't Blair though.
    I agree, and I don't think Labour is going to be anywhere near a 60 majority, let alone a 179 seat one.

    But my point was simply that "it's the economy stupid" is not the be all and end all. If it was, the Conservatives would have won reelection in 1997, and Labour would have been utterly slaughtered in 2010.

    After a prolonged period in Government, parties get tired. Talent departs and is replaced by mediocrity. Message discipline disappears. Scandals that might have been brushed off now loom large. Tactical voting bites you in the ass.

    Two years ago, I was in full agreement with isam that a Conservative majority was underpriced. Now, I think that's a pretty unlikely outcome, because the government simply looks tired.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,138
    Scott_xP said:

    @paulwaugh
    In trumpeting his Windsor deal @RishiSunak on @BBCr4today inadvertently makes the case against Brexit:
    "Northern Ireland...has access to the EU market, which makes it an incredibly attractive place to invest for business."

    And the more the Scots see it, the more they wonder why they aren't allowed a similar access.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    Zero-calorie sweetener popular in keto diets linked to strokes, heart attacks
    https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/3876664-zero-calorie-sweetener-popular-in-keto-diets-linked-to-strokes-heart-attacks/
    ...Stanley Hazen, the director of the Center for Cardiovascular Diagnostics and Prevention at the Cleveland Clinic Lerner Research Institute and lead researcher on the study, told CNN that “the degree of risk was not modest.”
    “If your blood level of erythritol was in the top 25 percent compared to the bottom 25 percent, there was about a two-fold higher risk for heart attack and stroke. It’s on par with the strongest of cardiac risk factors, like diabetes,” Hazen said...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878
    nico679 said:

    The EU doesn’t respond to childish threats . Sunak got a good deal because they felt he could be trusted to honour what he signs and would act in good faith.

    There was no trust left with Johnson and the EU would never have given him those concessions.

    See also A16. Oh, wait that was the EU being childish…
This discussion has been closed.