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Will Sunak’s position be stronger or weaker after today? – politicalbetting.com

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  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,785
    Cookie said:

    Driver said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Meanwhile, supermarket food inflation 21.6% year on year at the cheap end (budget food ranges).

    https://www.which.co.uk/news/article/poorest-hit-hardest-by-inflation-as-budget-groceries-soar-in-price-awGN66n1RaHz

    Quality is dropping too.
    Oh? Not saying you are wrong, quite the reverse, but how?
    The one I notice most - silly though it may sound - is apple sauce.

    The own brand stuff for Morrisons, in particular, used to be pretty good and not very expensive. Now it has a much lower fruit content, so it's much less pleasant, and a much higher price.

    But I could instance cornflakes, butter, toiletries, cheese - all sorts of staples that used to be better but seem to be sold in smaller packets and less tasty when you get them.

    I used to buy at the big supermarkets (again, particularly Morrisons) rather than Aldi and Lidl because although it was a little more expensive the products were of a better quality so I didn't mind the extra charge.

    Now - Aldi's actually producing better quality stuff and it's a lot cheaper.
    Morrisons has gone downhill in a big way over the last couple of years, not just on the value range.
    Tesco sausages have gone weird.
    Also, supermarket shopping at Tesco is a qualitatively less pleasant experience. Only one checkout is open and they play music too loudly where once there was silence.
    They have, though, been not unsuccessful in keeping prices down.
    Meh, I use the scan-as-you-shop at whichever supermarket (usually Asda midweek and either Sainsbury's or Tesco at the weekend). The main unpleasantness about shopping is all the people getting in the way, but there's no avoiding that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    What was the EU legal action about pets all about?

    The EU had demanded full paperwork for pets in transit between the EU and the UK. Under Johnson's deal this applied to Northern Ireland but the British were refusing to enforce it. AIUI the legal action was to force them to actually do the fricking checks, and fine the UK for non-compliance.

    Now, the checks have been scrapped for Northern Ireland. Unfortunately not for the rest of the EU, but it's definitely a big improvement.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,597
    edited February 2023
    Scott_xP said:

    Ian Dunt @IanDunt

    Doubt this is a useful thing to say, but this is potentially profoundly useful to Remainers. Principles are being established about being in the EU's single market/customs union with veto powers, which could be quite easily expanded to include the whole of the UK.

    Ian Dunt @IanDunt

    Not getting overly excited. That's clearly not the aim on either side. But if you were a future British government and wanted to establish that sort of relationship, you can see quite clearly how it would work and the arguments you'd use.

    That's not remain/rejoin, though, is it? That's some form of cherrypicked EFTA membership which we were told was impossible.

    It wouldn't help rejoin either, it would end the idea completely.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    MaxPB said:


    Yes, the major concession really does look like the UK dropping the NI protocol bill.

    since that was there principally because of deadlock I assume it was always the plan to drop it. Not that Boris would say so now (I assume, not caught up).
  • WillG said:

    Potentially crucial detail from Sunak there.

    The new "Stormont break" will actually allow the NI Assembly to prevent the application of new EU laws. [in NI]

    That goes further than many were expecting, and may meet one of the DUP's toughest tests.

    Wow. It seems to go even further. VdL said that the new "Stormont break" is based around the "petition of concern"

    To non-Stormont nerds, that's a mechanism that allows just 30 MLAs to block legislation.

    So it’s an effective unionist (or nationalist) veto over new EU laws. Huge.

    Of course, the caveat is that for such a veto to be exercised, Stormont would need to be sitting.

    Which you might say is a decent incentive to get the thing back up and running...


    https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1630240436106444802?s=20

    Three big wins coming out so far. Things the EU previously said were impossible.

    1) A green lane with no checks for anything going to Northern Ireland

    2) Availability of all GB foods, agriculture and medicine to Northern Ireland

    3) A break from Stormont on EU laws (this could get downgraded to half a win depending on whether it only applies to new laws)

    Then one potential win for the EU, unclear its size until more comes out:

    1) Some EU law applying in NI, with ECJ decision maker.

    We need to find out more, but right now seems like a 3-1 win for the UK.

    That depends on what you believe the EU is trying to do. If it can monitor use of the Green lanes to ensure that there is no subsequent movement into the Single Market and that goods stay in Northern Ireland - and it can through access to UK data records which the deal has made available - then it is protecting the integrity of the single market and so also winning.

    All it took was grown-ups on both sides of the negotiating table.

    Something we were told was an impossible unicorn during the Brexit debate.

    We now have the unicorn solution. All it took was grown ups at the negotiating table ... and the UK to be clear in no unambiguous terms that we wouldn't be following EU rules and a compromise was necessary.

    We have a solution that both sides are very happy with. One that has its roots in both sides accepting that they are not enemies and that they have common goals. The UK single market is preserved, the EU single market is preserved. It's a deal that has been done by grown-ups - and the make-up of the negotiating teams has only changed on one side of the table.

    It's changed completely on both sides.

    Last set of negotiations were done while the EU had the UK as a member and subject to EU law, this time it does not.

    This is a triumph for the UK that follows on from the triumph of 2019 in saying sort the UK out of the EU first, kick NI into the future to come back to.

    This is a complete defeat of the Barnier framework of resolving NI first to bind the UK into the EU's sphere of influence.

    Negotiations were going nowhere until Sunak became PM and a new UK team started talking to the existing EU team.
    Bollocks. Negotiations were ongoing and the destination of somewhere like this had been set by the NI Protocol Bill.

    The EU have negotiated what Boris and Truss proposed, to save face from having it done by Britain unilaterally. Just as I said to expect when the Protocol Bill was announced. Mission accomplished.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    @mortenmorland: So patriotic he calls the King "Prince Charles" https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1630167558354509824


  • Negotiations were going nowhere until Sunak became PM and a new UK team started talking to the existing EU team.

    Yes, it's an illustration of what the nebulous thing "Trust in the other side to be negotiating in good faith" can achieve. It was totally missing before, both ways. I'm not inclined to quibble or score points - unless some hideous snag emerges, it's an excellent thing.

    I also think it's an example of the sort of achievement that I'd trust Sunak to be good at - complex, technical, and requiring an interest in detail without populist sloganeering. I'm not going to suddenly vote Tory, but I think he deserves credit.

    Ditto. It's a deal that his two predecessors could not ever have secured because they prioritised playing to the gallery over the national interest. Sunak deserves a lot of praise. He is now cemented in as PM until the next GE.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870



    Negotiations were going nowhere until Sunak became PM and a new UK team started talking to the existing EU team.

    Yes, it's an illustration of what the nebulous thing "Trust in the other side to be negotiating in good faith" can achieve. It was totally missing before, both ways. I'm not inclined to quibble or score points - unless some hideous snag emerges, it's an excellent thing.

    I also think it's an example of the sort of achievement that I'd trust Sunak to be good at - complex, technical, and requiring an interest in detail without populist sloganeering. I'm not going to suddenly vote Tory, but I think he deserves credit.
    You say that, but I reckon you're like 75% of the way to voting Tory now :)
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    ydoethur said:

    What was the EU legal action about pets all about?

    The EU had demanded full paperwork for pets in transit between the EU and the UK. Under Johnson's deal this applied to Northern Ireland but the British were refusing to enforce it. AIUI the legal action was to force them to actually do the fricking checks, and fine the UK for non-compliance.

    Now, the checks have been scrapped for Northern Ireland. Unfortunately not for the rest of the EU, but it's definitely a big improvement.
    Ah, thanks for explaining, cheers.
  • WillG said:

    Thank you for the link. Things that jump out:

    1) 1700 pages of EU law disapplied, with most trade rules coming from the UK legal side (including food safety), so ECJ presence seems pretty limited

    2) UK VAT and excise rates and calculations apply, not Irish or EU ones

    3) Free GB-NI trade for medicines, medical products, agriculture, construction goods, steel. UK regulation, not EU, on food, jewellery, clothes and medicines applies

    4) Data sharing based on existing data collection, so no additional bureaucratic burden for small businesses

    5) Stormont break only applies to NEW EU laws - but can be used just by a minority at Stormont AND challenges to it will not be decided by ECJ, but an independent body.

    6) Stormont break requires the block by Stormont AND a UK government veto

    7) New legal commitment on both UK and EU to protect UK internal market

    8) GB-NI trade will be based on UK commercial regulation, not international customs.

    Overall I would say this is more like 3-0 for the UK position than 3-1. But both sides win from the deal.
    It's just as advertised and, arguably, even better - a fundamental and radical rewrite of the whole NI protocol.

    Also, I note that it effectively introduces a new digital border between NI and Eire to monitor north-south movement to compensate, which is a massive concession and something I'd jump on if I were the DUP.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    @RedfieldWilton: Keir Starmer's approval rating is +13%, his highest approval rating since 27 November (+13%).

    Keir Starmer Approva… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1630261545732120579
  • The King this afternoon held an Audience with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, at Windsor Castle.



    https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1630253909137666050?s=20
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Scott_xP said:

    Ian Dunt @IanDunt

    Doubt this is a useful thing to say, but this is potentially profoundly useful to Remainers. Principles are being established about being in the EU's single market/customs union with veto powers, which could be quite easily expanded to include the whole of the UK.

    Ian Dunt @IanDunt

    Not getting overly excited. That's clearly not the aim on either side. But if you were a future British government and wanted to establish that sort of relationship, you can see quite clearly how it would work and the arguments you'd use.

    That's not remain/rejoin, though, is it? That's some form of cherrypicked EFTA membership which we were told was impossible.

    It wouldn't help rejoin either, it would end the idea completely.
    TBF, that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. If we had in effect got everything Rejoiners demanded so they had to STFU while actually being outside the EU so Brexiteers had this warm comfortable feeling of having won the argument, we would be striking a pleasing equilibrium.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Driver said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Meanwhile, supermarket food inflation 21.6% year on year at the cheap end (budget food ranges).

    https://www.which.co.uk/news/article/poorest-hit-hardest-by-inflation-as-budget-groceries-soar-in-price-awGN66n1RaHz

    Quality is dropping too.
    Oh? Not saying you are wrong, quite the reverse, but how?
    The one I notice most - silly though it may sound - is apple sauce.

    The own brand stuff for Morrisons, in particular, used to be pretty good and not very expensive. Now it has a much lower fruit content, so it's much less pleasant, and a much higher price.

    But I could instance cornflakes, butter, toiletries, cheese - all sorts of staples that used to be better but seem to be sold in smaller packets and less tasty when you get them.

    I used to buy at the big supermarkets (again, particularly Morrisons) rather than Aldi and Lidl because although it was a little more expensive the products were of a better quality so I didn't mind the extra charge.

    Now - Aldi's actually producing better quality stuff and it's a lot cheaper.
    Morrisons has gone downhill in a big way over the last couple of years, not just on the value range.
    I popped in to greggs, earlier and was astonished to see how much their baguettes have shrunk. Barely half the size they were the last time I was there, a couple of months ago.

    Same price.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    WillG said:

    Potentially crucial detail from Sunak there.

    The new "Stormont break" will actually allow the NI Assembly to prevent the application of new EU laws. [in NI]

    That goes further than many were expecting, and may meet one of the DUP's toughest tests.

    Wow. It seems to go even further. VdL said that the new "Stormont break" is based around the "petition of concern"

    To non-Stormont nerds, that's a mechanism that allows just 30 MLAs to block legislation.

    So it’s an effective unionist (or nationalist) veto over new EU laws. Huge.

    Of course, the caveat is that for such a veto to be exercised, Stormont would need to be sitting.

    Which you might say is a decent incentive to get the thing back up and running...


    https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1630240436106444802?s=20

    Three big wins coming out so far. Things the EU previously said were impossible.

    1) A green lane with no checks for anything going to Northern Ireland

    2) Availability of all GB foods, agriculture and medicine to Northern Ireland

    3) A break from Stormont on EU laws (this could get downgraded to half a win depending on whether it only applies to new laws)

    Then one potential win for the EU, unclear its size until more comes out:

    1) Some EU law applying in NI, with ECJ decision maker.

    We need to find out more, but right now seems like a 3-1 win for the UK.
    1, 2 and a somewhat limited 3 were proposed by Maros Sefcovic back in 2021 following his discussions with Northern Ireland business and politicians. These proposals were subsequently rejected by Johnson, Truss and Frost. It's possible the new proposals are significantly different in the detail from Sefcovic's originals. On the whole of looks like Sunak's main work has been in getting his government on board.
    Lol no they weren't. The EU's position was always "you made the deal, live with it". As always you want to cheer the EU as much as possible, honestly I do wonder whether you're a paid astroturfer or just deluded.
    I have concluded @FF43 is simply beige and dull. Monumentally boring. See his inability to accept the ‘lab leak hypothesis’ even yesterday

    My guess is “well educated” but sorely lacks in creative wit, self confidence or imagination; therefore gets stuck in intellectual positions even when they no longer make any sense, and cannot form an opinion by himself
    I think he's also more defined by who he doesn't like and what he's against that what he's in favour of, for example he doesn't like people who oppose the EU therefore he's in favour of the EU, regardless of the rights and wrongs of it. See his (non-)reaction to the EU pulling the A16 trigger over vaccines vs the UK potentially, maybe, looking at A16 for significantly diverted trade flows for a prolonged period of time. The EU was wrong and the UK right in both situations, yet on both he supported the EU based on not liking the people who oppose the EU.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    ...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Driver said:

    Cookie said:

    Driver said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Meanwhile, supermarket food inflation 21.6% year on year at the cheap end (budget food ranges).

    https://www.which.co.uk/news/article/poorest-hit-hardest-by-inflation-as-budget-groceries-soar-in-price-awGN66n1RaHz

    Quality is dropping too.
    Oh? Not saying you are wrong, quite the reverse, but how?
    The one I notice most - silly though it may sound - is apple sauce.

    The own brand stuff for Morrisons, in particular, used to be pretty good and not very expensive. Now it has a much lower fruit content, so it's much less pleasant, and a much higher price.

    But I could instance cornflakes, butter, toiletries, cheese - all sorts of staples that used to be better but seem to be sold in smaller packets and less tasty when you get them.

    I used to buy at the big supermarkets (again, particularly Morrisons) rather than Aldi and Lidl because although it was a little more expensive the products were of a better quality so I didn't mind the extra charge.

    Now - Aldi's actually producing better quality stuff and it's a lot cheaper.
    Morrisons has gone downhill in a big way over the last couple of years, not just on the value range.
    Tesco sausages have gone weird.
    Also, supermarket shopping at Tesco is a qualitatively less pleasant experience. Only one checkout is open and they play music too loudly where once there was silence.
    They have, though, been not unsuccessful in keeping prices down.
    Meh, I use the scan-as-you-shop at whichever supermarket (usually Asda midweek and either Sainsbury's or Tesco at the weekend). The main unpleasantness about shopping is all the people getting in the way, but there's no avoiding that.
    @ydoethur Apple sauce, seriously?

    Cook a chopped Bramley in a bit of water and as much or as little sugar as you like. It's the work of 10 minutes to have apple sauce made from, you know, apple.
  • Driver said:

    WillG said:

    Potentially crucial detail from Sunak there.

    The new "Stormont break" will actually allow the NI Assembly to prevent the application of new EU laws. [in NI]

    That goes further than many were expecting, and may meet one of the DUP's toughest tests.

    Wow. It seems to go even further. VdL said that the new "Stormont break" is based around the "petition of concern"

    To non-Stormont nerds, that's a mechanism that allows just 30 MLAs to block legislation.

    So it’s an effective unionist (or nationalist) veto over new EU laws. Huge.

    Of course, the caveat is that for such a veto to be exercised, Stormont would need to be sitting.

    Which you might say is a decent incentive to get the thing back up and running...


    https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1630240436106444802?s=20

    Three big wins coming out so far. Things the EU previously said were impossible.

    1) A green lane with no checks for anything going to Northern Ireland

    2) Availability of all GB foods, agriculture and medicine to Northern Ireland

    3) A break from Stormont on EU laws (this could get downgraded to half a win depending on whether it only applies to new laws)

    Then one potential win for the EU, unclear its size until more comes out:

    1) Some EU law applying in NI, with ECJ decision maker.

    We need to find out more, but right now seems like a 3-1 win for the UK.

    That depends on what you believe the EU is trying to do. If it can monitor use of the Green lanes to ensure that there is no subsequent movement into the Single Market and that goods stay in Northern Ireland - and it can through access to UK data records which the deal has made available - then it is protecting the integrity of the single market and so also winning.

    All it took was grown-ups on both sides of the negotiating table.

    Something we were told was an impossible unicorn during the Brexit debate.

    We now have the unicorn solution. All it took was grown ups at the negotiating table ... and the UK to be clear in no unambiguous terms that we wouldn't be following EU rules and a compromise was necessary.

    We have a solution that both sides are very happy with. One that has its roots in both sides accepting that they are not enemies and that they have common goals. The UK single market is preserved, the EU single market is preserved. It's a deal that has been done by grown-ups - and the make-up of the negotiating teams has only changed on one side of the table.

    It's changed completely on both sides.

    Last set of negotiations were done while the EU had the UK as a member and subject to EU law, this time it does not.

    This is a triumph for the UK that follows on from the triumph of 2019 in saying sort the UK out of the EU first, kick NI into the future to come back to.

    This is a complete defeat of the Barnier framework of resolving NI first to bind the UK into the EU's sphere of influence.

    Negotiations were going nowhere until Sunak became PM and a new UK team started talking to the existing EU team.
    The NI Protocol Bill started in Parliament on the 13th of June last year. Eight and a half months to get from there to this is pretty good.

    Sunak became PM just four months ago. That's how long it has taken. Shows what can be done when there's a serious desire to do it.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Four tonnes of fresh bricks might be better. See if we can finally knock some sense into them.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    WillG said:

    Thank you for the link. Things that jump out:

    1) 1700 pages of EU law disapplied, with most trade rules coming from the UK legal side (including food safety), so ECJ presence seems pretty limited

    2) UK VAT and excise rates and calculations apply, not Irish or EU ones

    3) Free GB-NI trade for medicines, medical products, agriculture, construction goods, steel. UK regulation, not EU, on food, jewellery, clothes and medicines applies

    4) Data sharing based on existing data collection, so no additional bureaucratic burden for small businesses

    5) Stormont break only applies to NEW EU laws - but can be used just by a minority at Stormont AND challenges to it will not be decided by ECJ, but an independent body.

    6) Stormont break requires the block by Stormont AND a UK government veto

    7) New legal commitment on both UK and EU to protect UK internal market

    8) GB-NI trade will be based on UK commercial regulation, not international customs.

    Overall I would say this is more like 3-0 for the UK position than 3-1. But both sides win from the deal.
    It's just as advertised and, arguably, even better - a fundamental and radical rewrite of the whole NI protocol.

    Also, I note that it effectively introduces a new digital border between NI and Eire to monitor north-south movement to compensate, which is a massive concession and something I'd jump on if I were the DUP.
    It also sets the precedent of digital borders between the UK and EU, which could be used to reduce trade barriers elsewhere in future. AND the UK can still sign trade deals elsewhere and filter immigration.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 51% (=)
    CON: 24% (=)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    REF: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 5% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @RedfieldWilton, On 26 February,
    Changes w/ 18 February.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    edited February 2023
    Cookie said:

    Driver said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Meanwhile, supermarket food inflation 21.6% year on year at the cheap end (budget food ranges).

    https://www.which.co.uk/news/article/poorest-hit-hardest-by-inflation-as-budget-groceries-soar-in-price-awGN66n1RaHz

    Quality is dropping too.
    Oh? Not saying you are wrong, quite the reverse, but how?
    The one I notice most - silly though it may sound - is apple sauce.

    The own brand stuff for Morrisons, in particular, used to be pretty good and not very expensive. Now it has a much lower fruit content, so it's much less pleasant, and a much higher price.

    But I could instance cornflakes, butter, toiletries, cheese - all sorts of staples that used to be better but seem to be sold in smaller packets and less tasty when you get them.

    I used to buy at the big supermarkets (again, particularly Morrisons) rather than Aldi and Lidl because although it was a little more expensive the products were of a better quality so I didn't mind the extra charge.

    Now - Aldi's actually producing better quality stuff and it's a lot cheaper.
    Morrisons has gone downhill in a big way over the last couple of years, not just on the value range.
    Tesco sausages have gone weird.
    Also, supermarket shopping at Tesco is a qualitatively less pleasant experience. Only one checkout is open and they play music too loudly where once there was silence.
    They have, though, been not unsuccessful in keeping prices down.
    Morrisons have been my best trad local supermarket for some time.

    They were bought out by a Private Equity setup a couple of years ago, which since they are my mainline supermarket I have been concerned about. I like their vertical integration. Own labels have certainly been heavily de-emphasised. Guardian piece draws an interesting parallel with Debenhams.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/27/is-private-equity-tearing-the-soul-out-of-morrisons-supermarket
  • WillG said:

    Potentially crucial detail from Sunak there.

    The new "Stormont break" will actually allow the NI Assembly to prevent the application of new EU laws. [in NI]

    That goes further than many were expecting, and may meet one of the DUP's toughest tests.

    Wow. It seems to go even further. VdL said that the new "Stormont break" is based around the "petition of concern"

    To non-Stormont nerds, that's a mechanism that allows just 30 MLAs to block legislation.

    So it’s an effective unionist (or nationalist) veto over new EU laws. Huge.

    Of course, the caveat is that for such a veto to be exercised, Stormont would need to be sitting.

    Which you might say is a decent incentive to get the thing back up and running...


    https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1630240436106444802?s=20

    Three big wins coming out so far. Things the EU previously said were impossible.

    1) A green lane with no checks for anything going to Northern Ireland

    2) Availability of all GB foods, agriculture and medicine to Northern Ireland

    3) A break from Stormont on EU laws (this could get downgraded to half a win depending on whether it only applies to new laws)

    Then one potential win for the EU, unclear its size until more comes out:

    1) Some EU law applying in NI, with ECJ decision maker.

    We need to find out more, but right now seems like a 3-1 win for the UK.

    That depends on what you believe the EU is trying to do. If it can monitor use of the Green lanes to ensure that there is no subsequent movement into the Single Market and that goods stay in Northern Ireland - and it can through access to UK data records which the deal has made available - then it is protecting the integrity of the single market and so also winning.

    All it took was grown-ups on both sides of the negotiating table.

    Something we were told was an impossible unicorn during the Brexit debate.

    We now have the unicorn solution. All it took was grown ups at the negotiating table ... and the UK to be clear in no unambiguous terms that we wouldn't be following EU rules and a compromise was necessary.

    We have a solution that both sides are very happy with. One that has its roots in both sides accepting that they are not enemies and that they have common goals. The UK single market is preserved, the EU single market is preserved. It's a deal that has been done by grown-ups - and the make-up of the negotiating teams has only changed on one side of the table.

    It's changed completely on both sides.

    Last set of negotiations were done while the EU had the UK as a member and subject to EU law, this time it does not.

    This is a triumph for the UK that follows on from the triumph of 2019 in saying sort the UK out of the EU first, kick NI into the future to come back to.

    This is a complete defeat of the Barnier framework of resolving NI first to bind the UK into the EU's sphere of influence.

    Negotiations were going nowhere until Sunak became PM and a new UK team started talking to the existing EU team.
    Bollocks. Negotiations were ongoing and the destination of somewhere like this had been set by the NI Protocol Bill.

    The EU have negotiated what Boris and Truss proposed, to save face from having it done by Britain unilaterally. Just as I said to expect when the Protocol Bill was announced. Mission accomplished.

    Of course!

  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,597
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Ian Dunt @IanDunt

    Doubt this is a useful thing to say, but this is potentially profoundly useful to Remainers. Principles are being established about being in the EU's single market/customs union with veto powers, which could be quite easily expanded to include the whole of the UK.

    Ian Dunt @IanDunt

    Not getting overly excited. That's clearly not the aim on either side. But if you were a future British government and wanted to establish that sort of relationship, you can see quite clearly how it would work and the arguments you'd use.

    That's not remain/rejoin, though, is it? That's some form of cherrypicked EFTA membership which we were told was impossible.

    It wouldn't help rejoin either, it would end the idea completely.
    TBF, that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. If we had in effect got everything Rejoiners demanded so they had to STFU while actually being outside the EU so Brexiteers had this warm comfortable feeling of having won the argument, we would be striking a pleasing equilibrium.
    No, I agree it wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing at all. But I'm not sure that's the angle Ian Dunt is coming from.
  • 4/ A statement of the UK government legal position. Unilateral, not binding, but interesting. Pours an ocean full of cold water on the NI protocol bill

    https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1630259036317798408?s=20
  • WillG said:

    Potentially crucial detail from Sunak there.

    The new "Stormont break" will actually allow the NI Assembly to prevent the application of new EU laws. [in NI]

    That goes further than many were expecting, and may meet one of the DUP's toughest tests.

    Wow. It seems to go even further. VdL said that the new "Stormont break" is based around the "petition of concern"

    To non-Stormont nerds, that's a mechanism that allows just 30 MLAs to block legislation.

    So it’s an effective unionist (or nationalist) veto over new EU laws. Huge.

    Of course, the caveat is that for such a veto to be exercised, Stormont would need to be sitting.

    Which you might say is a decent incentive to get the thing back up and running...


    https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1630240436106444802?s=20

    Three big wins coming out so far. Things the EU previously said were impossible.

    1) A green lane with no checks for anything going to Northern Ireland

    2) Availability of all GB foods, agriculture and medicine to Northern Ireland

    3) A break from Stormont on EU laws (this could get downgraded to half a win depending on whether it only applies to new laws)

    Then one potential win for the EU, unclear its size until more comes out:

    1) Some EU law applying in NI, with ECJ decision maker.

    We need to find out more, but right now seems like a 3-1 win for the UK.

    That depends on what you believe the EU is trying to do. If it can monitor use of the Green lanes to ensure that there is no subsequent movement into the Single Market and that goods stay in Northern Ireland - and it can through access to UK data records which the deal has made available - then it is protecting the integrity of the single market and so also winning.

    All it took was grown-ups on both sides of the negotiating table.

    Something we were told was an impossible unicorn during the Brexit debate.

    We now have the unicorn solution. All it took was grown ups at the negotiating table ... and the UK to be clear in no unambiguous terms that we wouldn't be following EU rules and a compromise was necessary.

    We have a solution that both sides are very happy with. One that has its roots in both sides accepting that they are not enemies and that they have common goals. The UK single market is preserved, the EU single market is preserved. It's a deal that has been done by grown-ups - and the make-up of the negotiating teams has only changed on one side of the table.

    It's changed completely on both sides.

    Last set of negotiations were done while the EU had the UK as a member and subject to EU law, this time it does not.

    This is a triumph for the UK that follows on from the triumph of 2019 in saying sort the UK out of the EU first, kick NI into the future to come back to.

    This is a complete defeat of the Barnier framework of resolving NI first to bind the UK into the EU's sphere of influence.

    Negotiations were going nowhere until Sunak became PM and a new UK team started talking to the existing EU team.
    Bollocks. Negotiations were ongoing and the destination of somewhere like this had been set by the NI Protocol Bill.

    The EU have negotiated what Boris and Truss proposed, to save face from having it done by Britain unilaterally. Just as I said to expect when the Protocol Bill was announced. Mission accomplished.
    Really ? That's nice, dear.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Thank you for the link. Things that jump out:

    1) 1700 pages of EU law disapplied, with most trade rules coming from the UK legal side (including food safety), so ECJ presence seems pretty limited

    2) UK VAT and excise rates and calculations apply, not Irish or EU ones

    3) Free GB-NI trade for medicines, medical products, agriculture, construction goods, steel. UK regulation, not EU, on food, jewellery, clothes and medicines applies

    4) Data sharing based on existing data collection, so no additional bureaucratic burden for small businesses

    5) Stormont break only applies to NEW EU laws - but can be used just by a minority at Stormont AND challenges to it will not be decided by ECJ, but an independent body.

    6) Stormont break requires the block by Stormont AND a UK government veto

    7) New legal commitment on both UK and EU to protect UK internal market

    8) GB-NI trade will be based on UK commercial regulation, not international customs.

    Overall I would say this is more like 3-0 for the UK position than 3-1. But both sides win from the deal.
    It's just as advertised and, arguably, even better - a fundamental and radical rewrite of the whole NI protocol.

    Also, I note that it effectively introduces a new digital border between NI and Eire to monitor north-south movement to compensate, which is a massive concession and something I'd jump on if I were the DUP.
    It also sets the precedent of digital borders between the UK and EU, which could be used to reduce trade barriers elsewhere in future. AND the UK can still sign trade deals elsewhere and filter immigration.
    Yes, the digital border or customs pre-clearance as it is probably more rightfully named, can be a future blueprint for UK-EU trade. If it proves successful for this scenario we can and should roll it out for the TCA and do away with border checks for as many goods as possible on both sides.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Meanwhile, supermarket food inflation 21.6% year on year at the cheap end (budget food ranges).

    https://www.which.co.uk/news/article/poorest-hit-hardest-by-inflation-as-budget-groceries-soar-in-price-awGN66n1RaHz

    Quality is dropping too.
    Oh? Not saying you are wrong, quite the reverse, but how?
    The one I notice most - silly though it may sound - is apple sauce.

    The own brand stuff for Morrisons, in particular, used to be pretty good and not very expensive. Now it has a much lower fruit content, so it's much less pleasant, and a much higher price.

    But I could instance cornflakes, butter, toiletries, cheese - all sorts of staples that used to be better but seem to be sold in smaller packets and less tasty when you get them.

    I used to buy at the big supermarkets (again, particularly Morrisons) rather than Aldi and Lidl because although it was a little more expensive the products were of a better quality so I didn't mind the extra charge.

    Now - Aldi's actually producing better quality stuff and it's a lot cheaper.
    Ta muchly. Some interestding comments from others, too.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    ping said:

    Driver said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Meanwhile, supermarket food inflation 21.6% year on year at the cheap end (budget food ranges).

    https://www.which.co.uk/news/article/poorest-hit-hardest-by-inflation-as-budget-groceries-soar-in-price-awGN66n1RaHz

    Quality is dropping too.
    Oh? Not saying you are wrong, quite the reverse, but how?
    The one I notice most - silly though it may sound - is apple sauce.

    The own brand stuff for Morrisons, in particular, used to be pretty good and not very expensive. Now it has a much lower fruit content, so it's much less pleasant, and a much higher price.

    But I could instance cornflakes, butter, toiletries, cheese - all sorts of staples that used to be better but seem to be sold in smaller packets and less tasty when you get them.

    I used to buy at the big supermarkets (again, particularly Morrisons) rather than Aldi and Lidl because although it was a little more expensive the products were of a better quality so I didn't mind the extra charge.

    Now - Aldi's actually producing better quality stuff and it's a lot cheaper.
    Morrisons has gone downhill in a big way over the last couple of years, not just on the value range.
    I popped in to greggs, earlier and was astonished to see how much their baguettes have shrunk. Barely half the size they were the last time I was there, a couple of months ago.

    Same price.
    That's probably a plus for the health of the nation tbf.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    @gavinesler: Translation: “It wasn’t me. It was two big boys that did it. Then they ran away.” https://twitter.com/djnicholl/status/1630190232124497920
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 51% (=)
    CON: 24% (=)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    REF: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 5% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @RedfieldWilton, On 26 February,
    Changes w/ 18 February.

    Rejoice at that news.

    Not getting worse for the Tories.

    Getting worse for the LibDems.....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    WillG said:

    Potentially crucial detail from Sunak there.

    The new "Stormont break" will actually allow the NI Assembly to prevent the application of new EU laws. [in NI]

    That goes further than many were expecting, and may meet one of the DUP's toughest tests.

    Wow. It seems to go even further. VdL said that the new "Stormont break" is based around the "petition of concern"

    To non-Stormont nerds, that's a mechanism that allows just 30 MLAs to block legislation.

    So it’s an effective unionist (or nationalist) veto over new EU laws. Huge.

    Of course, the caveat is that for such a veto to be exercised, Stormont would need to be sitting.

    Which you might say is a decent incentive to get the thing back up and running...


    https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1630240436106444802?s=20

    Three big wins coming out so far. Things the EU previously said were impossible.

    1) A green lane with no checks for anything going to Northern Ireland

    2) Availability of all GB foods, agriculture and medicine to Northern Ireland

    3) A break from Stormont on EU laws (this could get downgraded to half a win depending on whether it only applies to new laws)

    Then one potential win for the EU, unclear its size until more comes out:

    1) Some EU law applying in NI, with ECJ decision maker.

    We need to find out more, but right now seems like a 3-1 win for the UK.
    1, 2 and a somewhat limited 3 were proposed by Maros Sefcovic back in 2021 following his discussions with Northern Ireland business and politicians. These proposals were subsequently rejected by Johnson, Truss and Frost. It's possible the new proposals are significantly different in the detail from Sefcovic's originals. On the whole of looks like Sunak's main work has been in getting his government on board.
    Lol no they weren't. The EU's position was always "you made the deal, live with it". As always you want to cheer the EU as much as possible, honestly I do wonder whether you're a paid astroturfer or just deluded.
    I have concluded @FF43 is simply beige and dull. Monumentally boring. See his inability to accept the ‘lab leak hypothesis’ even yesterday

    My guess is “well educated” but sorely lacks in creative wit, self confidence or imagination; therefore gets stuck in intellectual positions even when they no longer make any sense, and cannot form an opinion by himself
    I think he's also more defined by who he doesn't like and what he's against that what he's in favour of, for example he doesn't like people who oppose the EU therefore he's in favour of the EU, regardless of the rights and wrongs of it. See his (non-)reaction to the EU pulling the A16 trigger over vaccines vs the UK potentially, maybe, looking at A16 for significantly diverted trade flows for a prolonged period of time. The EU was wrong and the UK right in both situations, yet on both he supported the EU based on not liking the people who oppose the EU.
    He’s probably best ignored, to be honest. He’s not interesting or enlightening on boring trade details or actual politics, his supposed area of expertise, and he has not once in his entire PB career said anything memorable, funny, witty, clever, moving, affecting or diverting. Hopefully he will take the hint and spare us further opinions
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,785

    Driver said:

    WillG said:

    Potentially crucial detail from Sunak there.

    The new "Stormont break" will actually allow the NI Assembly to prevent the application of new EU laws. [in NI]

    That goes further than many were expecting, and may meet one of the DUP's toughest tests.

    Wow. It seems to go even further. VdL said that the new "Stormont break" is based around the "petition of concern"

    To non-Stormont nerds, that's a mechanism that allows just 30 MLAs to block legislation.

    So it’s an effective unionist (or nationalist) veto over new EU laws. Huge.

    Of course, the caveat is that for such a veto to be exercised, Stormont would need to be sitting.

    Which you might say is a decent incentive to get the thing back up and running...


    https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1630240436106444802?s=20

    Three big wins coming out so far. Things the EU previously said were impossible.

    1) A green lane with no checks for anything going to Northern Ireland

    2) Availability of all GB foods, agriculture and medicine to Northern Ireland

    3) A break from Stormont on EU laws (this could get downgraded to half a win depending on whether it only applies to new laws)

    Then one potential win for the EU, unclear its size until more comes out:

    1) Some EU law applying in NI, with ECJ decision maker.

    We need to find out more, but right now seems like a 3-1 win for the UK.

    That depends on what you believe the EU is trying to do. If it can monitor use of the Green lanes to ensure that there is no subsequent movement into the Single Market and that goods stay in Northern Ireland - and it can through access to UK data records which the deal has made available - then it is protecting the integrity of the single market and so also winning.

    All it took was grown-ups on both sides of the negotiating table.

    Something we were told was an impossible unicorn during the Brexit debate.

    We now have the unicorn solution. All it took was grown ups at the negotiating table ... and the UK to be clear in no unambiguous terms that we wouldn't be following EU rules and a compromise was necessary.

    We have a solution that both sides are very happy with. One that has its roots in both sides accepting that they are not enemies and that they have common goals. The UK single market is preserved, the EU single market is preserved. It's a deal that has been done by grown-ups - and the make-up of the negotiating teams has only changed on one side of the table.

    It's changed completely on both sides.

    Last set of negotiations were done while the EU had the UK as a member and subject to EU law, this time it does not.

    This is a triumph for the UK that follows on from the triumph of 2019 in saying sort the UK out of the EU first, kick NI into the future to come back to.

    This is a complete defeat of the Barnier framework of resolving NI first to bind the UK into the EU's sphere of influence.

    Negotiations were going nowhere until Sunak became PM and a new UK team started talking to the existing EU team.
    The NI Protocol Bill started in Parliament on the 13th of June last year. Eight and a half months to get from there to this is pretty good.

    Sunak became PM just four months ago. That's how long it has taken. Shows what can be done when there's a serious desire to do it.

    It's true that a lot of time over the summer was wasted by kicking out Boris, electing Truss, kicking out Truss and electing Sunak. But I'm not sure why you want to credit the man and not the tool he used.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Four tonnes of fresh bricks might be better. See if we can finally knock some sense into them.
    My reaction was to wonder if the cucumbers were appropriately bent.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488


    China now exporting as many cars as Germany (almost certainly much lower revenue and profit, though)
  • Driver said:

    WillG said:

    Potentially crucial detail from Sunak there.

    The new "Stormont break" will actually allow the NI Assembly to prevent the application of new EU laws. [in NI]

    That goes further than many were expecting, and may meet one of the DUP's toughest tests.

    Wow. It seems to go even further. VdL said that the new "Stormont break" is based around the "petition of concern"

    To non-Stormont nerds, that's a mechanism that allows just 30 MLAs to block legislation.

    So it’s an effective unionist (or nationalist) veto over new EU laws. Huge.

    Of course, the caveat is that for such a veto to be exercised, Stormont would need to be sitting.

    Which you might say is a decent incentive to get the thing back up and running...


    https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1630240436106444802?s=20

    Three big wins coming out so far. Things the EU previously said were impossible.

    1) A green lane with no checks for anything going to Northern Ireland

    2) Availability of all GB foods, agriculture and medicine to Northern Ireland

    3) A break from Stormont on EU laws (this could get downgraded to half a win depending on whether it only applies to new laws)

    Then one potential win for the EU, unclear its size until more comes out:

    1) Some EU law applying in NI, with ECJ decision maker.

    We need to find out more, but right now seems like a 3-1 win for the UK.

    That depends on what you believe the EU is trying to do. If it can monitor use of the Green lanes to ensure that there is no subsequent movement into the Single Market and that goods stay in Northern Ireland - and it can through access to UK data records which the deal has made available - then it is protecting the integrity of the single market and so also winning.

    All it took was grown-ups on both sides of the negotiating table.

    Something we were told was an impossible unicorn during the Brexit debate.

    We now have the unicorn solution. All it took was grown ups at the negotiating table ... and the UK to be clear in no unambiguous terms that we wouldn't be following EU rules and a compromise was necessary.

    We have a solution that both sides are very happy with. One that has its roots in both sides accepting that they are not enemies and that they have common goals. The UK single market is preserved, the EU single market is preserved. It's a deal that has been done by grown-ups - and the make-up of the negotiating teams has only changed on one side of the table.

    It's changed completely on both sides.

    Last set of negotiations were done while the EU had the UK as a member and subject to EU law, this time it does not.

    This is a triumph for the UK that follows on from the triumph of 2019 in saying sort the UK out of the EU first, kick NI into the future to come back to.

    This is a complete defeat of the Barnier framework of resolving NI first to bind the UK into the EU's sphere of influence.

    Negotiations were going nowhere until Sunak became PM and a new UK team started talking to the existing EU team.
    The NI Protocol Bill started in Parliament on the 13th of June last year. Eight and a half months to get from there to this is pretty good.

    Sunak became PM just four months ago. That's how long it has taken. Shows what can be done when there's a serious desire to do it.

    And boring competence. One of the things that seems to have unlocked progress was getting EU access to the Belfast customs computers sorted.

    So we have an arrangement where everyone has what they feel they need. Splendid.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Report from the EU that Boris Johnson and Frost grated in the EU who welcome the new PM pragmatic attitude

    No surprise there

    The Johnson/Frost spin will no doubt be a deal was only possible because they scared the EU rigid with their hardball Protocol Cancellation bill. Nothing at all to do with us dropping the macho theatrics and behaving like mature adults.

    But that will not wash. The current, grown-up UK government has made the legal advice clear: the bill was never going to work from a legal standpoint and would have exposed the UK to large compensation payments if enacted. And if the UK government knew that, the EU did too.
    Course it won't. But they deal in fantasies. What this actually shows imo is the wasted opportunity to negotiate a better deal in the first place. All it needed was good faith, hard work, focus and professionalism. Instead we got all that 'No Deal is better than a Bad Deal' and 'holding all the cards' perpetual grandstanding nonsense. Then a mad rush to sign something - anything - so Johnson could win his election.
    You can't go into a negotiation with the position that a bad deal is better than no deal, even if that's what you privately believe.
    And if the alternative is a Corbyn government, a deal held together with string and wishful thinking is better than whatever deal Corbyn would have cooked up. Imagine Corbyn trying to find a deal with the EU which could keep NI within the UK. It would be like all of his Christmasses had come at once (well, two of his Christmasses.)
    Ok, I suppose a Marxist dystopia under Corbyn is about the only yardstick by which Johnson's tenure could be judged non-disastrous. Point of order though. If Labour had won GE19 there wouldn't have been a Brexit Deal. There'd have been no Brexit.
    The famously enthusiastic Remainer Jeremy Corbyn would have called it off?

    And a Marxist dystopia under Jeremy Corbyn is, unfortunately, the yardstick by which we must judge it. Because that was the alternative.

    If I were making Johnson's case for posterity, it would be that I don't really see a credible scenario which didn't lead to a Marxist dystopia which didn't involve him and his rather half-baked deal. We can both prefer that a better deal had been in place from the start (or, for you, no deal at all), but the pathway which led to such a thing AND no Marxist dystopia was, in my view, so narrow in its likelihood as to be implausible.
    My view is that Johnson was the only broadly plausible way of getting from the failure of May's 2017 election to today which didn't go via Marxist dystopia.
    I doubt Jeremy could have pulled off a Marxist dystopia with Labour largest party in a hung parliament. Which was the stretch target. But, yes, Ref2 with Remain as a binary choice against any specific Exit deal was a slam dunk. Brexit was a goner if GE19 had gone that way. This would have been pretty much the sole mandate of a short Corbyn 1st term - cancelling Brexit. Marxist dystopia to follow in his 2nd term after a landslide in 2021 perhaps. Then no more elections obviously.
    Nope - because you are making the assumption that Bozo won the 2019 GE when it's far more plausible that Corbyn and co lost it and any Tory leader would have won that election (albeit it with fewer seats than Bozo got).
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Meanwhile, supermarket food inflation 21.6% year on year at the cheap end (budget food ranges).

    https://www.which.co.uk/news/article/poorest-hit-hardest-by-inflation-as-budget-groceries-soar-in-price-awGN66n1RaHz

    Quality is dropping too.
    Oh? Not saying you are wrong, quite the reverse, but how?
    Have noticed quality of vegetables has dropped a fair bit.,, probably travelling for much longer.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    carnforth said:



    China now exporting as many cars as Germany (almost certainly much lower revenue and profit, though)

    It’s almost as if Covid was a bio weapon released from wuhan to fuel china’s rise to industrial hegemony over the west
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    WillG said:

    Potentially crucial detail from Sunak there.

    The new "Stormont break" will actually allow the NI Assembly to prevent the application of new EU laws. [in NI]

    That goes further than many were expecting, and may meet one of the DUP's toughest tests.

    Wow. It seems to go even further. VdL said that the new "Stormont break" is based around the "petition of concern"

    To non-Stormont nerds, that's a mechanism that allows just 30 MLAs to block legislation.

    So it’s an effective unionist (or nationalist) veto over new EU laws. Huge.

    Of course, the caveat is that for such a veto to be exercised, Stormont would need to be sitting.

    Which you might say is a decent incentive to get the thing back up and running...


    https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1630240436106444802?s=20

    Three big wins coming out so far. Things the EU previously said were impossible.

    1) A green lane with no checks for anything going to Northern Ireland

    2) Availability of all GB foods, agriculture and medicine to Northern Ireland

    3) A break from Stormont on EU laws (this could get downgraded to half a win depending on whether it only applies to new laws)

    Then one potential win for the EU, unclear its size until more comes out:

    1) Some EU law applying in NI, with ECJ decision maker.

    We need to find out more, but right now seems like a 3-1 win for the UK.

    That depends on what you believe the EU is trying to do. If it can monitor use of the Green lanes to ensure that there is no subsequent movement into the Single Market and that goods stay in Northern Ireland - and it can through access to UK data records which the deal has made available - then it is protecting the integrity of the single market and so also winning.

    All it took was grown-ups on both sides of the negotiating table.

    Something we were told was an impossible unicorn during the Brexit debate.

    We now have the unicorn solution. All it took was grown ups at the negotiating table ... and the UK to be clear in no unambiguous terms that we wouldn't be following EU rules and a compromise was necessary.

    We have a solution that both sides are very happy with. One that has its roots in both sides accepting that they are not enemies and that they have common goals. The UK single market is preserved, the EU single market is preserved. It's a deal that has been done by grown-ups - and the make-up of the negotiating teams has only changed on one side of the table.

    No this is utter bollocks

    It was the EU - ursula herself - which unilaterally suspended the Brexit agreement to prevent fucking vaccines crossing the Uk border because the EU felt humiliated. By its vaccine failures of the time. It was macron who said astra zeneca was basically useless. It was the Germans who claimed astra zeneca was 10% effective for anyone older than 2 months etc etc

    How many people actually DIED as a result of this childish petulance? Because the EU felt insulted or menaced by Brexit?

    The EU is at fault as is the UK. Both sides acted like wankers. Enough already
    That 'fucking vaccines' jars a bit. Swearing's fine but don't strain to swear.
    Did Astra Zeneca not get retired as useless.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    Rishi has played a blinder.

    Short of agreeing a bit of choreography where the whole EU Commission came into Whitehall and went down on both knees in front of the British government, crying and begging for mercy, whilst the national anthem was played on loudspeaker and a list of famous British military victories read aloud to them accompanied by the Life Guards shouting "Huzzah!" I don't see how how he could have done any better.

    We still have the spectacle of BoZo saying "I welcome this deal" and voting for it to come...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Thank you for the link. Things that jump out:

    1) 1700 pages of EU law disapplied, with most trade rules coming from the UK legal side (including food safety), so ECJ presence seems pretty limited

    2) UK VAT and excise rates and calculations apply, not Irish or EU ones

    3) Free GB-NI trade for medicines, medical products, agriculture, construction goods, steel. UK regulation, not EU, on food, jewellery, clothes and medicines applies

    4) Data sharing based on existing data collection, so no additional bureaucratic burden for small businesses

    5) Stormont break only applies to NEW EU laws - but can be used just by a minority at Stormont AND challenges to it will not be decided by ECJ, but an independent body.

    6) Stormont break requires the block by Stormont AND a UK government veto

    7) New legal commitment on both UK and EU to protect UK internal market

    8) GB-NI trade will be based on UK commercial regulation, not international customs.

    Overall I would say this is more like 3-0 for the UK position than 3-1. But both sides win from the deal.
    It's just as advertised and, arguably, even better - a fundamental and radical rewrite of the whole NI protocol.

    Also, I note that it effectively introduces a new digital border between NI and Eire to monitor north-south movement to compensate, which is a massive concession and something I'd jump on if I were the DUP.
    It also sets the precedent of digital borders between the UK and EU, which could be used to reduce trade barriers elsewhere in future. AND the UK can still sign trade deals elsewhere and filter immigration.
    Rishi has played a blinder.

    Short of agreeing a bit of choreography where the whole EU Commission came into Whitehall and went down on both knees in front of the British government, crying and begging for mercy, whilst the national anthem was played on loudspeaker and a list of famous British military victories read aloud to them accompanied by the Life Guards shouting "Huzzah!" I don't see how how he could have done any better.
    Are you TRYING to give the ERG ideas to kill it?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    Scott_xP said:

    Rishi has played a blinder.

    Short of agreeing a bit of choreography where the whole EU Commission came into Whitehall and went down on both knees in front of the British government, crying and begging for mercy, whilst the national anthem was played on loudspeaker and a list of famous British military victories read aloud to them accompanied by the Life Guards shouting "Huzzah!" I don't see how how he could have done any better.

    We still have the spectacle of BoZo saying "I welcome this deal" and voting for it to come...
    His Portillo moment ...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited February 2023
    MaxPB said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Thank you for the link. Things that jump out:

    1) 1700 pages of EU law disapplied, with most trade rules coming from the UK legal side (including food safety), so ECJ presence seems pretty limited

    2) UK VAT and excise rates and calculations apply, not Irish or EU ones

    3) Free GB-NI trade for medicines, medical products, agriculture, construction goods, steel. UK regulation, not EU, on food, jewellery, clothes and medicines applies

    4) Data sharing based on existing data collection, so no additional bureaucratic burden for small businesses

    5) Stormont break only applies to NEW EU laws - but can be used just by a minority at Stormont AND challenges to it will not be decided by ECJ, but an independent body.

    6) Stormont break requires the block by Stormont AND a UK government veto

    7) New legal commitment on both UK and EU to protect UK internal market

    8) GB-NI trade will be based on UK commercial regulation, not international customs.

    Overall I would say this is more like 3-0 for the UK position than 3-1. But both sides win from the deal.
    It's just as advertised and, arguably, even better - a fundamental and radical rewrite of the whole NI protocol.

    Also, I note that it effectively introduces a new digital border between NI and Eire to monitor north-south movement to compensate, which is a massive concession and something I'd jump on if I were the DUP.
    It also sets the precedent of digital borders between the UK and EU, which could be used to reduce trade barriers elsewhere in future. AND the UK can still sign trade deals elsewhere and filter immigration.
    Yes, the digital border or customs pre-clearance as it is probably more rightfully named, can be a future blueprint for UK-EU trade. If it proves successful for this scenario we can and should roll it out for the TCA and do away with border checks for as many goods as possible on both sides.
    Given that the EU is proposing the same system on all their external borders next year, to not apply it in this case would be the ultimate show of bad faith.

    Are they still suggesting UK financial regs are not equivalent, but USA regs are?
  • WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Thank you for the link. Things that jump out:

    1) 1700 pages of EU law disapplied, with most trade rules coming from the UK legal side (including food safety), so ECJ presence seems pretty limited

    2) UK VAT and excise rates and calculations apply, not Irish or EU ones

    3) Free GB-NI trade for medicines, medical products, agriculture, construction goods, steel. UK regulation, not EU, on food, jewellery, clothes and medicines applies

    4) Data sharing based on existing data collection, so no additional bureaucratic burden for small businesses

    5) Stormont break only applies to NEW EU laws - but can be used just by a minority at Stormont AND challenges to it will not be decided by ECJ, but an independent body.

    6) Stormont break requires the block by Stormont AND a UK government veto

    7) New legal commitment on both UK and EU to protect UK internal market

    8) GB-NI trade will be based on UK commercial regulation, not international customs.

    Overall I would say this is more like 3-0 for the UK position than 3-1. But both sides win from the deal.
    It's just as advertised and, arguably, even better - a fundamental and radical rewrite of the whole NI protocol.

    Also, I note that it effectively introduces a new digital border between NI and Eire to monitor north-south movement to compensate, which is a massive concession and something I'd jump on if I were the DUP.
    It also sets the precedent of digital borders between the UK and EU, which could be used to reduce trade barriers elsewhere in future. AND the UK can still sign trade deals elsewhere and filter immigration.
    That's possibly the biggest news in this which, remarkably, has been missed by most commentators.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Meanwhile, supermarket food inflation 21.6% year on year at the cheap end (budget food ranges).

    https://www.which.co.uk/news/article/poorest-hit-hardest-by-inflation-as-budget-groceries-soar-in-price-awGN66n1RaHz

    Quality is dropping too.
    Oh? Not saying you are wrong, quite the reverse, but how?
    Have noticed quality of vegetables has dropped a fair bit.,, probably travelling for much longer.
    Mrs C also commenting the other day, and not just because of time of year.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    Scott_xP said:

    @mortenmorland: So patriotic he calls the King "Prince Charles" https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1630167558354509824

    Better than shithead
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    biggles said:

    Steve Baker has just said on Sky it meets DUP 7 tests

    He is delighted with the agreement

    It’s astonishing. No sane person could want more. We and the EU can now move on and be best mates, using things like Ukraine as examples.

    So the DUP and Mogg will clearly hate it.
    It's like there might be something else behind their previous objections than the official word. Hmm.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    WillG said:

    Potentially crucial detail from Sunak there.

    The new "Stormont break" will actually allow the NI Assembly to prevent the application of new EU laws. [in NI]

    That goes further than many were expecting, and may meet one of the DUP's toughest tests.

    Wow. It seems to go even further. VdL said that the new "Stormont break" is based around the "petition of concern"

    To non-Stormont nerds, that's a mechanism that allows just 30 MLAs to block legislation.

    So it’s an effective unionist (or nationalist) veto over new EU laws. Huge.

    Of course, the caveat is that for such a veto to be exercised, Stormont would need to be sitting.

    Which you might say is a decent incentive to get the thing back up and running...


    https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1630240436106444802?s=20

    Three big wins coming out so far. Things the EU previously said were impossible.

    1) A green lane with no checks for anything going to Northern Ireland

    2) Availability of all GB foods, agriculture and medicine to Northern Ireland

    3) A break from Stormont on EU laws (this could get downgraded to half a win depending on whether it only applies to new laws)

    Then one potential win for the EU, unclear its size until more comes out:

    1) Some EU law applying in NI, with ECJ decision maker.

    We need to find out more, but right now seems like a 3-1 win for the UK.
    1, 2 and a somewhat limited 3 were proposed by Maros Sefcovic back in 2021 following his discussions with Northern Ireland business and politicians. These proposals were subsequently rejected by Johnson, Truss and Frost. It's possible the new proposals are significantly different in the detail from Sefcovic's originals. On the whole of looks like Sunak's main work has been in getting his government on board.
    Lol no they weren't. The EU's position was always "you made the deal, live with it". As always you want to cheer the EU as much as possible, honestly I do wonder whether you're a paid astroturfer or just deluded.
    I have concluded @FF43 is simply beige and dull. Monumentally boring. See his inability to accept the ‘lab leak hypothesis’ even yesterday

    My guess is “well educated” but sorely lacks in creative wit, self confidence or imagination; therefore gets stuck in intellectual positions even when they no longer make any sense, and cannot form an opinion by himself
    Stealing my identity from the sounds of it.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited February 2023
    WillG said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    WillG said:

    Potentially crucial detail from Sunak there.

    The new "Stormont break" will actually allow the NI Assembly to prevent the application of new EU laws. [in NI]

    That goes further than many were expecting, and may meet one of the DUP's toughest tests.

    Wow. It seems to go even further. VdL said that the new "Stormont break" is based around the "petition of concern"

    To non-Stormont nerds, that's a mechanism that allows just 30 MLAs to block legislation.

    So it’s an effective unionist (or nationalist) veto over new EU laws. Huge.

    Of course, the caveat is that for such a veto to be exercised, Stormont would need to be sitting.

    Which you might say is a decent incentive to get the thing back up and running...


    https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1630240436106444802?s=20

    Three big wins coming out so far. Things the EU previously said were impossible.

    1) A green lane with no checks for anything going to Northern Ireland

    2) Availability of all GB foods, agriculture and medicine to Northern Ireland

    3) A break from Stormont on EU laws (this could get downgraded to half a win depending on whether it only applies to new laws)

    Then one potential win for the EU, unclear its size until more comes out:

    1) Some EU law applying in NI, with ECJ decision maker.

    We need to find out more, but right now seems like a 3-1 win for the UK.
    1, 2 and a somewhat limited 3 were proposed by Maros Sefcovic back in 2021 following his discussions with Northern Ireland business and politicians. These proposals were subsequently rejected by Johnson, Truss and Frost. It's possible the new proposals are significantly different in the detail from Sefcovic's originals. On the whole it looks like Sunak's main work has been in getting his government on board.
    More info, https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/northern-ireland-maros-sefcovic-irish-sea-proposals-government-b960375.html
    That is halfway to the Sunak deal. Even the headline on agrifood applies to only 80%, rather than 100% of it. And the democratic check is additional consultation, rather than the unionist party at Stormont able to apply a hard brake.
    AIUI the brake happens if Stormont votes for it. ie it will in practice need cross community consent and Sinn Fein and DUP to vote for it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    WillG said:

    Potentially crucial detail from Sunak there.

    The new "Stormont break" will actually allow the NI Assembly to prevent the application of new EU laws. [in NI]

    That goes further than many were expecting, and may meet one of the DUP's toughest tests.

    Wow. It seems to go even further. VdL said that the new "Stormont break" is based around the "petition of concern"

    To non-Stormont nerds, that's a mechanism that allows just 30 MLAs to block legislation.

    So it’s an effective unionist (or nationalist) veto over new EU laws. Huge.

    Of course, the caveat is that for such a veto to be exercised, Stormont would need to be sitting.

    Which you might say is a decent incentive to get the thing back up and running...


    https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1630240436106444802?s=20

    Three big wins coming out so far. Things the EU previously said were impossible.

    1) A green lane with no checks for anything going to Northern Ireland

    2) Availability of all GB foods, agriculture and medicine to Northern Ireland

    3) A break from Stormont on EU laws (this could get downgraded to half a win depending on whether it only applies to new laws)

    Then one potential win for the EU, unclear its size until more comes out:

    1) Some EU law applying in NI, with ECJ decision maker.

    We need to find out more, but right now seems like a 3-1 win for the UK.

    That depends on what you believe the EU is trying to do. If it can monitor use of the Green lanes to ensure that there is no subsequent movement into the Single Market and that goods stay in Northern Ireland - and it can through access to UK data records which the deal has made available - then it is protecting the integrity of the single market and so also winning.

    All it took was grown-ups on both sides of the negotiating table.

    Something we were told was an impossible unicorn during the Brexit debate.

    We now have the unicorn solution. All it took was grown ups at the negotiating table ... and the UK to be clear in no unambiguous terms that we wouldn't be following EU rules and a compromise was necessary.

    We have a solution that both sides are very happy with. One that has its roots in both sides accepting that they are not enemies and that they have common goals. The UK single market is preserved, the EU single market is preserved. It's a deal that has been done by grown-ups - and the make-up of the negotiating teams has only changed on one side of the table.

    No this is utter bollocks

    It was the EU - ursula herself - which unilaterally suspended the Brexit agreement to prevent fucking vaccines crossing the Uk border because the EU felt humiliated. By its vaccine failures of the time. It was macron who said astra zeneca was basically useless. It was the Germans who claimed astra zeneca was 10% effective for anyone older than 2 months etc etc

    How many people actually DIED as a result of this childish petulance? Because the EU felt insulted or menaced by Brexit?

    The EU is at fault as is the UK. Both sides acted like wankers. Enough already
    That 'fucking vaccines' jars a bit. Swearing's fine but don't strain to swear.
    Did Astra Zeneca not get retired as useless.
    No.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,267
    Arlene Foster sceptical about this Deal but wants to check the detail.

    She of course is on the moderate wing of the DUP

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/27/not-ready-buy-rishis-ni-protocol-bluff-devil-small-print/
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Thank you for the link. Things that jump out:

    1) 1700 pages of EU law disapplied, with most trade rules coming from the UK legal side (including food safety), so ECJ presence seems pretty limited

    2) UK VAT and excise rates and calculations apply, not Irish or EU ones

    3) Free GB-NI trade for medicines, medical products, agriculture, construction goods, steel. UK regulation, not EU, on food, jewellery, clothes and medicines applies

    4) Data sharing based on existing data collection, so no additional bureaucratic burden for small businesses

    5) Stormont break only applies to NEW EU laws - but can be used just by a minority at Stormont AND challenges to it will not be decided by ECJ, but an independent body.

    6) Stormont break requires the block by Stormont AND a UK government veto

    7) New legal commitment on both UK and EU to protect UK internal market

    8) GB-NI trade will be based on UK commercial regulation, not international customs.

    Overall I would say this is more like 3-0 for the UK position than 3-1. But both sides win from the deal.
    It's just as advertised and, arguably, even better - a fundamental and radical rewrite of the whole NI protocol.

    Also, I note that it effectively introduces a new digital border between NI and Eire to monitor north-south movement to compensate, which is a massive concession and something I'd jump on if I were the DUP.
    It also sets the precedent of digital borders between the UK and EU, which could be used to reduce trade barriers elsewhere in future. AND the UK can still sign trade deals elsewhere and filter immigration.
    Yes, the digital border or customs pre-clearance as it is probably more rightfully named, can be a future blueprint for UK-EU trade. If it proves successful for this scenario we can and should roll it out for the TCA and do away with border checks for as many goods as possible on both sides.
    Given that the EU is proposing the same system on all their external borders next year, to not apply it in this case would be the ultimate show of bad faith.

    Are they still suggesting UK financial regs are not equivalent, but USA regs are?
    Basically they gave away nothing just implemented what they plan to do all over.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    I hope it is a good deal so the Boris argument is about his work getting it here and Sunak finishing it off, rather than moaning.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    WillG said:

    Potentially crucial detail from Sunak there.

    The new "Stormont break" will actually allow the NI Assembly to prevent the application of new EU laws. [in NI]

    That goes further than many were expecting, and may meet one of the DUP's toughest tests.

    Wow. It seems to go even further. VdL said that the new "Stormont break" is based around the "petition of concern"

    To non-Stormont nerds, that's a mechanism that allows just 30 MLAs to block legislation.

    So it’s an effective unionist (or nationalist) veto over new EU laws. Huge.

    Of course, the caveat is that for such a veto to be exercised, Stormont would need to be sitting.

    Which you might say is a decent incentive to get the thing back up and running...


    https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1630240436106444802?s=20

    Three big wins coming out so far. Things the EU previously said were impossible.

    1) A green lane with no checks for anything going to Northern Ireland

    2) Availability of all GB foods, agriculture and medicine to Northern Ireland

    3) A break from Stormont on EU laws (this could get downgraded to half a win depending on whether it only applies to new laws)

    Then one potential win for the EU, unclear its size until more comes out:

    1) Some EU law applying in NI, with ECJ decision maker.

    We need to find out more, but right now seems like a 3-1 win for the UK.

    That depends on what you believe the EU is trying to do. If it can monitor use of the Green lanes to ensure that there is no subsequent movement into the Single Market and that goods stay in Northern Ireland - and it can through access to UK data records which the deal has made available - then it is protecting the integrity of the single market and so also winning.

    All it took was grown-ups on both sides of the negotiating table.

    Something we were told was an impossible unicorn during the Brexit debate.

    We now have the unicorn solution. All it took was grown ups at the negotiating table ... and the UK to be clear in no unambiguous terms that we wouldn't be following EU rules and a compromise was necessary.

    We have a solution that both sides are very happy with. One that has its roots in both sides accepting that they are not enemies and that they have common goals. The UK single market is preserved, the EU single market is preserved. It's a deal that has been done by grown-ups - and the make-up of the negotiating teams has only changed on one side of the table.

    No this is utter bollocks

    It was the EU - ursula herself - which unilaterally suspended the Brexit agreement to prevent fucking vaccines crossing the Uk border because the EU felt humiliated. By its vaccine failures of the time. It was macron who said astra zeneca was basically useless. It was the Germans who claimed astra zeneca was 10% effective for anyone older than 2 months etc etc

    How many people actually DIED as a result of this childish petulance? Because the EU felt insulted or menaced by Brexit?

    The EU is at fault as is the UK. Both sides acted like wankers. Enough already
    That 'fucking vaccines' jars a bit. Swearing's fine but don't strain to swear.
    Did Astra Zeneca not get retired as useless.
    If your definition of 'useless' is saving about 6 million lives in the first year, yes.
    Well it was binned because no-one was brave enough to take it as it was so dodgy , or am I mistaken. Why was it removed tout suite.
  • Steve Baker tells me right up until this morning when he found out what was in the deal he was ready to resign and compares the Windsor Framework to the Good Friday Agreement in the scale of its achievement. Will it convince his DUP friends?

    https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1630267558111723522?s=20
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Scott_xP said:

    Ian Dunt @IanDunt

    Doubt this is a useful thing to say, but this is potentially profoundly useful to Remainers. Principles are being established about being in the EU's single market/customs union with veto powers, which could be quite easily expanded to include the whole of the UK.

    Ian Dunt @IanDunt

    Not getting overly excited. That's clearly not the aim on either side. But if you were a future British government and wanted to establish that sort of relationship, you can see quite clearly how it would work and the arguments you'd use.

    Remember that Ian Dunt was always a Eurosceptic who thought the EU was rubbish until he became radicalised by the referendum. People like him will undermine any attempt to rejoin because they are not really pro-EU and will expect all sorts of terms that won't be on offer.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Thank you for the link. Things that jump out:

    1) 1700 pages of EU law disapplied, with most trade rules coming from the UK legal side (including food safety), so ECJ presence seems pretty limited

    2) UK VAT and excise rates and calculations apply, not Irish or EU ones

    3) Free GB-NI trade for medicines, medical products, agriculture, construction goods, steel. UK regulation, not EU, on food, jewellery, clothes and medicines applies

    4) Data sharing based on existing data collection, so no additional bureaucratic burden for small businesses

    5) Stormont break only applies to NEW EU laws - but can be used just by a minority at Stormont AND challenges to it will not be decided by ECJ, but an independent body.

    6) Stormont break requires the block by Stormont AND a UK government veto

    7) New legal commitment on both UK and EU to protect UK internal market

    8) GB-NI trade will be based on UK commercial regulation, not international customs.

    Overall I would say this is more like 3-0 for the UK position than 3-1. But both sides win from the deal.
    It's just as advertised and, arguably, even better - a fundamental and radical rewrite of the whole NI protocol.

    Also, I note that it effectively introduces a new digital border between NI and Eire to monitor north-south movement to compensate, which is a massive concession and something I'd jump on if I were the DUP.
    It also sets the precedent of digital borders between the UK and EU, which could be used to reduce trade barriers elsewhere in future. AND the UK can still sign trade deals elsewhere and filter immigration.
    Yes, the digital border or customs pre-clearance as it is probably more rightfully named, can be a future blueprint for UK-EU trade. If it proves successful for this scenario we can and should roll it out for the TCA and do away with border checks for as many goods as possible on both sides.
    Given that the EU is proposing the same system on all their external borders next year, to not apply it in this case would be the ultimate show of bad faith.

    Are they still suggesting UK financial regs are not equivalent, but USA regs are?
    That's the people border, not goods. Goods will still be subject to normal checks in most cases even where trade deals are in effect other than for Turkey which is in a customs union with the EU. What this does is allow for the EU to effectively create green channels for, say, Rolls Royce when goods are exported from the UK to Toulouse for final assembly of planes or for chemicals from green channel companies that meet the EU regs etc...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    WillG said:

    Potentially crucial detail from Sunak there.

    The new "Stormont break" will actually allow the NI Assembly to prevent the application of new EU laws. [in NI]

    That goes further than many were expecting, and may meet one of the DUP's toughest tests.

    Wow. It seems to go even further. VdL said that the new "Stormont break" is based around the "petition of concern"

    To non-Stormont nerds, that's a mechanism that allows just 30 MLAs to block legislation.

    So it’s an effective unionist (or nationalist) veto over new EU laws. Huge.

    Of course, the caveat is that for such a veto to be exercised, Stormont would need to be sitting.

    Which you might say is a decent incentive to get the thing back up and running...


    https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1630240436106444802?s=20

    Three big wins coming out so far. Things the EU previously said were impossible.

    1) A green lane with no checks for anything going to Northern Ireland

    2) Availability of all GB foods, agriculture and medicine to Northern Ireland

    3) A break from Stormont on EU laws (this could get downgraded to half a win depending on whether it only applies to new laws)

    Then one potential win for the EU, unclear its size until more comes out:

    1) Some EU law applying in NI, with ECJ decision maker.

    We need to find out more, but right now seems like a 3-1 win for the UK.

    That depends on what you believe the EU is trying to do. If it can monitor use of the Green lanes to ensure that there is no subsequent movement into the Single Market and that goods stay in Northern Ireland - and it can through access to UK data records which the deal has made available - then it is protecting the integrity of the single market and so also winning.

    All it took was grown-ups on both sides of the negotiating table.

    Something we were told was an impossible unicorn during the Brexit debate.

    We now have the unicorn solution. All it took was grown ups at the negotiating table ... and the UK to be clear in no unambiguous terms that we wouldn't be following EU rules and a compromise was necessary.

    We have a solution that both sides are very happy with. One that has its roots in both sides accepting that they are not enemies and that they have common goals. The UK single market is preserved, the EU single market is preserved. It's a deal that has been done by grown-ups - and the make-up of the negotiating teams has only changed on one side of the table.

    No this is utter bollocks

    It was the EU - ursula herself - which unilaterally suspended the Brexit agreement to prevent fucking vaccines crossing the Uk border because the EU felt humiliated. By its vaccine failures of the time. It was macron who said astra zeneca was basically useless. It was the Germans who claimed astra zeneca was 10% effective for anyone older than 2 months etc etc

    How many people actually DIED as a result of this childish petulance? Because the EU felt insulted or menaced by Brexit?

    The EU is at fault as is the UK. Both sides acted like wankers. Enough already
    That 'fucking vaccines' jars a bit. Swearing's fine but don't strain to swear.
    Did Astra Zeneca not get retired as useless.
    No.
    Assume the Tories made more cash from pfizer then , hence binning it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Why is Starmer saying he'll "put country first and party second" and vote for the deal? Does the Labour Party not support this deal?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    The King this afternoon held an Audience with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, at Windsor Castle.



    https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1630253909137666050?s=20

    “Oh Daisy Daisy, oh dear old Daisy. Do you like growing stuff?” [at this point the mic cut out]
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    HYUFD said:

    Arlene Foster sceptical about this Deal but wants to check the detail.

    She of course is on the moderate wing of the DUP

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/27/not-ready-buy-rishis-ni-protocol-bluff-devil-small-print/

    There's a "Moderate" wing of the DUP?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    TUV opposed to it.
    Surprise, surprise.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774



    Negotiations were going nowhere until Sunak became PM and a new UK team started talking to the existing EU team.

    Yes, it's an illustration of what the nebulous thing "Trust in the other side to be negotiating in good faith" can achieve. It was totally missing before, both ways. I'm not inclined to quibble or score points - unless some hideous snag emerges, it's an excellent thing.

    I also think it's an example of the sort of achievement that I'd trust Sunak to be good at - complex, technical, and requiring an interest in detail without populist sloganeering. I'm not going to suddenly vote Tory, but I think he deserves credit.

    Ditto. It's a deal that his two predecessors could not ever have secured because they prioritised playing to the gallery over the national interest. Sunak deserves a lot of praise. He is now cemented in as PM until the next GE.

    Yep, and showing up the clown for the useless tw*t he was is the bonus,
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    It’s amazing what can happen when you have a PM who doesn’t issue ridiculous threats .

    And who looks like he might honour what he signs . Johnson will clearly be livid as the EU gave Sunak what they never would have offered him .

    Suck it up loser!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Arlene Foster sceptical about this Deal but wants to check the detail.

    She of course is on the moderate wing of the DUP

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/27/not-ready-buy-rishis-ni-protocol-bluff-devil-small-print/

    There's a "Moderate" wing of the DUP?
    They never surrender, as opposed to never, never, never surrender...
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    dixiedean said:

    TUV opposed to it.
    Surprise, surprise.

    What exactly do these fuckers want from a deal ? Will they ever be happy ?
  • If Sinn Fein support this deal then Sunak has sold out Northern Ireland.

    Best PM ever.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,267
    dixiedean said:

    TUV opposed to it.
    Surprise, surprise.

    DUP will almost certainly oppose it too then to avoid further leaks to TUV
  • GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Arlene Foster sceptical about this Deal but wants to check the detail.

    She of course is on the moderate wing of the DUP

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/27/not-ready-buy-rishis-ni-protocol-bluff-devil-small-print/

    There's a "Moderate" wing of the DUP?
    They only hate Catholics.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,267
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Arlene Foster sceptical about this Deal but wants to check the detail.

    She of course is on the moderate wing of the DUP

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/27/not-ready-buy-rishis-ni-protocol-bluff-devil-small-print/

    There's a "Moderate" wing of the DUP?
    Foster is ex UUP, she was not always DUP.

    I think the UUP may back it, the DUP won't
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    If Sinn Fein support this deal then Sunak has sold out Northern Ireland.

    Best PM ever.

    Does it have an alternative name so they don't have to talk about upholding the Windsor Framework?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    On topic. Will Rishi’s position be stronger or weaker.

    ITS A GAME CHANGER. SUNAKS CLAUSE 4 MOMENT BLOWS THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION RESULT WIDE OPEN. There will be Delight amongst government, as they watch Starmer and his MPs queue up to hand Rishi Sunak his triumph over a previously disorderly party.

    If you don’t think Rishi’s negotiation Triumph, whipping the EU ass in a way Boris failed to do, is a Black Swan events that blows wide open the next General Election result, then where is your evidence it’s not? We must look carefully for signs of this becoming a game changer for the Sunak government. For a start Just look at the delighted papers.

    Big Concessions from EU - yells the Times, Our New Brexit Deal Best For Britain hails Express. Sunak on Brink of Historic Deal, squeals the excited Indy.



    Amongst other news, Lassie to become extinct -Star. Lab Leak Most Likely cause of Pandemic - Telegraph. Exams Body let’s Pupils use AI chat bot to write their essays - Times. Pass the sick bag, Tony Blair’s hypocrisy on Russia is nauseating - the eye. Wine Crisis - Star.

    Having heard Sunak at the press conference, I have changed my mind. THERE WILL BE NO POLL BOUNCE FOR SUNAK FROM THIS.

    If you havn’t heard him at the conference yet, this is how it goes (if you can imagine someone with zero acting ability, pretending he’s Al Pacino)

    This royal throne of kings, this scepter’d isle,
    This earth of majesty, this seat of Mars,
    This other Eden, demi-paradise,
    This fortress built by Nature for herself
    Against infection and the hand of war,
    This happy breed of men, this little world,
    This precious stone set in the silver sea,
    Which serves it in the office of a wall,
    Or as a moat defensive to a house,
    Against the envy of less happier lands,
    This blessed plot, this earth, this realm,
    This nurse, this teeming womb of royal kings,
    Fear’d by their breed and famous by their birth,

    [Of course there is always a sting in the tail]

    This land of such dear souls, this dear dear land,
    Dear for her reputation through the world,
    Is now leased out, I die pronouncing it,
    Like to a tenement or pelting farm:
    England, bound in with the triumphant sea
    Whose rocky shore beats back the envious siege
    Of watery Neptune, is now bound in with shame,
    With inky blots and rotten parchment bonds:
    That England, that was wont to conquer others,
    Hath made a shameful conquest of itself.
    Ah, would the scandal vanish with my life,
    How happy then were my ensuing death!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    tlg86 said:

    Why is Starmer saying he'll "put country first and party second" and vote for the deal? Does the Labour Party not support this deal?

    I rather think it is the *Tories* he has in mind, especially after the last 4 years.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    ydoethur said:

    What was the EU legal action about pets all about?

    The EU had demanded full paperwork for pets in transit between the EU and the UK. Under Johnson's deal this applied to Northern Ireland but the British were refusing to enforce it. AIUI the legal action was to force them to actually do the fricking checks, and fine the UK for non-compliance.

    Now, the checks have been scrapped for Northern Ireland. Unfortunately not for the rest of the EU, but it's definitely a big improvement.
    Ah, thanks for explaining, cheers.
    Very few pet owners were bothering with the paperwork when visiting NI, anyway, because the UK had announced the abolition of checks. So the difference in practice isn’t that great - indeed there’s a new online form that has to be completed before taking a pet to NI. The better news is that, it appears, the loophole where GB pet owners can get an EU PP in NI and then travel freely around the EU remains open.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    edited February 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Arlene Foster sceptical about this Deal but wants to check the detail.

    She of course is on the moderate wing of the DUP

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/27/not-ready-buy-rishis-ni-protocol-bluff-devil-small-print/

    Bloody hell. If Arlene Foster is on the moderate wing I'd hate to come across the extreme wing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,267
    tlg86 said:

    Why is Starmer saying he'll "put country first and party second" and vote for the deal? Does the Labour Party not support this deal?

    Starmer is backing it to maximise the number of Tory rebels as he knows Labour's backing ensures it passes anyway. He is more tactical than Corbyn
  • glwglw Posts: 9,871
    edited February 2023
    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    WillG said:

    Potentially crucial detail from Sunak there.

    The new "Stormont break" will actually allow the NI Assembly to prevent the application of new EU laws. [in NI]

    That goes further than many were expecting, and may meet one of the DUP's toughest tests.

    Wow. It seems to go even further. VdL said that the new "Stormont break" is based around the "petition of concern"

    To non-Stormont nerds, that's a mechanism that allows just 30 MLAs to block legislation.

    So it’s an effective unionist (or nationalist) veto over new EU laws. Huge.

    Of course, the caveat is that for such a veto to be exercised, Stormont would need to be sitting.

    Which you might say is a decent incentive to get the thing back up and running...


    https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1630240436106444802?s=20

    Three big wins coming out so far. Things the EU previously said were impossible.

    1) A green lane with no checks for anything going to Northern Ireland

    2) Availability of all GB foods, agriculture and medicine to Northern Ireland

    3) A break from Stormont on EU laws (this could get downgraded to half a win depending on whether it only applies to new laws)

    Then one potential win for the EU, unclear its size until more comes out:

    1) Some EU law applying in NI, with ECJ decision maker.

    We need to find out more, but right now seems like a 3-1 win for the UK.

    That depends on what you believe the EU is trying to do. If it can monitor use of the Green lanes to ensure that there is no subsequent movement into the Single Market and that goods stay in Northern Ireland - and it can through access to UK data records which the deal has made available - then it is protecting the integrity of the single market and so also winning.

    All it took was grown-ups on both sides of the negotiating table.

    Something we were told was an impossible unicorn during the Brexit debate.

    We now have the unicorn solution. All it took was grown ups at the negotiating table ... and the UK to be clear in no unambiguous terms that we wouldn't be following EU rules and a compromise was necessary.

    We have a solution that both sides are very happy with. One that has its roots in both sides accepting that they are not enemies and that they have common goals. The UK single market is preserved, the EU single market is preserved. It's a deal that has been done by grown-ups - and the make-up of the negotiating teams has only changed on one side of the table.

    No this is utter bollocks

    It was the EU - ursula herself - which unilaterally suspended the Brexit agreement to prevent fucking vaccines crossing the Uk border because the EU felt humiliated. By its vaccine failures of the time. It was macron who said astra zeneca was basically useless. It was the Germans who claimed astra zeneca was 10% effective for anyone older than 2 months etc etc

    How many people actually DIED as a result of this childish petulance? Because the EU felt insulted or menaced by Brexit?

    The EU is at fault as is the UK. Both sides acted like wankers. Enough already
    That 'fucking vaccines' jars a bit. Swearing's fine but don't strain to swear.
    Did Astra Zeneca not get retired as useless.
    No.
    Assume the Tories made more cash from pfizer then , hence binning it.
    I don't think we binned any vaccines. We ordered loads, and different vaccines have been more or less available at different times, we might have cut orders as we ended up with several effective and approved vaccines. I personally have had AZ, Pfizer, and Moderna.
    Globally AZ, Pfizer, and the two main Chinese vaccines have each delivered about 2.5 billion doses. It was a phenomenal achievement.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    If Sinn Fein support this deal then Sunak has sold out Northern Ireland.

    Best PM ever.

    Does it have an alternative name so they don't have to talk about upholding the Windsor Framework?
    It's Ok. Windsor is a shitty town in the Thames Valley, all tourist tat. And the agreement was in the town hall. Royals? What Royals?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    HYUFD said:

    Arlene Foster sceptical about this Deal but wants to check the detail.

    She of course is on the moderate wing of the DUP

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/27/not-ready-buy-rishis-ni-protocol-bluff-devil-small-print/

    Bloody hell. If Arlene Foster is one the moderate wing I'd hate to come across the extreme wing.
    NI does itself no favours, electing such obnoxious people to represent it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Arlene Foster sceptical about this Deal but wants to check the detail.

    She of course is on the moderate wing of the DUP

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/27/not-ready-buy-rishis-ni-protocol-bluff-devil-small-print/

    There's a "Moderate" wing of the DUP?
    They only hate Catholics.
    Oh? What do tdhe non-moderate wing hate as well? Dinosaurs?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912
    The BBC says Paisley says “NEVER NEVER NEVER”.

    I am paraphrasing.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912
    Carnyx said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Arlene Foster sceptical about this Deal but wants to check the detail.

    She of course is on the moderate wing of the DUP

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/27/not-ready-buy-rishis-ni-protocol-bluff-devil-small-print/

    There's a "Moderate" wing of the DUP?
    They only hate Catholics.
    Oh? What do tdhe non-moderate wing hate as well? Dinosaurs?
    Most Protestants…..
  • Carnyx said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Arlene Foster sceptical about this Deal but wants to check the detail.

    She of course is on the moderate wing of the DUP

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/27/not-ready-buy-rishis-ni-protocol-bluff-devil-small-print/

    There's a "Moderate" wing of the DUP?
    They only hate Catholics.
    Oh? What do tdhe non-moderate wing hate as well? Dinosaurs?
    The non moderate wing hates sodomites.

    Save Ulster From Sodomy.
  • If Sinn Fein support this deal then Sunak has sold out Northern Ireland.

    Best PM ever.

    Does it have an alternative name so they don't have to talk about upholding the Windsor Framework?
    Call it the Windsor knot.

    Best tie style ever.
  • Today is another step to rejoining.

    Horizon today, single market soon.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Thank you for the link. Things that jump out:

    1) 1700 pages of EU law disapplied, with most trade rules coming from the UK legal side (including food safety), so ECJ presence seems pretty limited

    2) UK VAT and excise rates and calculations apply, not Irish or EU ones

    3) Free GB-NI trade for medicines, medical products, agriculture, construction goods, steel. UK regulation, not EU, on food, jewellery, clothes and medicines applies

    4) Data sharing based on existing data collection, so no additional bureaucratic burden for small businesses

    5) Stormont break only applies to NEW EU laws - but can be used just by a minority at Stormont AND challenges to it will not be decided by ECJ, but an independent body.

    6) Stormont break requires the block by Stormont AND a UK government veto

    7) New legal commitment on both UK and EU to protect UK internal market

    8) GB-NI trade will be based on UK commercial regulation, not international customs.

    Overall I would say this is more like 3-0 for the UK position than 3-1. But both sides win from the deal.
    It's just as advertised and, arguably, even better - a fundamental and radical rewrite of the whole NI protocol.

    Also, I note that it effectively introduces a new digital border between NI and Eire to monitor north-south movement to compensate, which is a massive concession and something I'd jump on if I were the DUP.
    It also sets the precedent of digital borders between the UK and EU, which could be used to reduce trade barriers elsewhere in future. AND the UK can still sign trade deals elsewhere and filter immigration.
    Rishi has played a blinder.

    Short of agreeing a bit of choreography where the whole EU Commission came into Whitehall and went down on both knees in front of the British government, crying and begging for mercy, whilst the national anthem was played on loudspeaker and a list of famous British military victories read aloud to them accompanied by the Life Guards shouting "Huzzah!" I don't see how how he could have done any better.
    True, but the really sad thing is that we didn’t need to elect a tactical genius to achieve all this, but simply to stop electing childish tw*ts who only saw the EU as a straw person to be insulted whenever it suited for personal or political advantage.
  • HYUFD said:

    Arlene Foster sceptical about this Deal but wants to check the detail.

    She of course is on the moderate wing of the DUP

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/27/not-ready-buy-rishis-ni-protocol-bluff-devil-small-print/

    It must be very hard for you to witness the utter humiliation of Johnson today
  • NEW THREAD

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    glw said:

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    WillG said:

    Potentially crucial detail from Sunak there.

    The new "Stormont break" will actually allow the NI Assembly to prevent the application of new EU laws. [in NI]

    That goes further than many were expecting, and may meet one of the DUP's toughest tests.

    Wow. It seems to go even further. VdL said that the new "Stormont break" is based around the "petition of concern"

    To non-Stormont nerds, that's a mechanism that allows just 30 MLAs to block legislation.

    So it’s an effective unionist (or nationalist) veto over new EU laws. Huge.

    Of course, the caveat is that for such a veto to be exercised, Stormont would need to be sitting.

    Which you might say is a decent incentive to get the thing back up and running...


    https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1630240436106444802?s=20

    Three big wins coming out so far. Things the EU previously said were impossible.

    1) A green lane with no checks for anything going to Northern Ireland

    2) Availability of all GB foods, agriculture and medicine to Northern Ireland

    3) A break from Stormont on EU laws (this could get downgraded to half a win depending on whether it only applies to new laws)

    Then one potential win for the EU, unclear its size until more comes out:

    1) Some EU law applying in NI, with ECJ decision maker.

    We need to find out more, but right now seems like a 3-1 win for the UK.

    That depends on what you believe the EU is trying to do. If it can monitor use of the Green lanes to ensure that there is no subsequent movement into the Single Market and that goods stay in Northern Ireland - and it can through access to UK data records which the deal has made available - then it is protecting the integrity of the single market and so also winning.

    All it took was grown-ups on both sides of the negotiating table.

    Something we were told was an impossible unicorn during the Brexit debate.

    We now have the unicorn solution. All it took was grown ups at the negotiating table ... and the UK to be clear in no unambiguous terms that we wouldn't be following EU rules and a compromise was necessary.

    We have a solution that both sides are very happy with. One that has its roots in both sides accepting that they are not enemies and that they have common goals. The UK single market is preserved, the EU single market is preserved. It's a deal that has been done by grown-ups - and the make-up of the negotiating teams has only changed on one side of the table.

    No this is utter bollocks

    It was the EU - ursula herself - which unilaterally suspended the Brexit agreement to prevent fucking vaccines crossing the Uk border because the EU felt humiliated. By its vaccine failures of the time. It was macron who said astra zeneca was basically useless. It was the Germans who claimed astra zeneca was 10% effective for anyone older than 2 months etc etc

    How many people actually DIED as a result of this childish petulance? Because the EU felt insulted or menaced by Brexit?

    The EU is at fault as is the UK. Both sides acted like wankers. Enough already
    That 'fucking vaccines' jars a bit. Swearing's fine but don't strain to swear.
    Did Astra Zeneca not get retired as useless.
    No.
    Assume the Tories made more cash from pfizer then , hence binning it.
    I don't think we binned any vaccines. We ordered loads, and different vaccines have been more or less available at different times, we might have cut orders as we ended up with several effective and approved vaccines. I personally have had AZ, Pfizer, and Moderna.
    Globally AZ, Pfizer, and the two main Chinese vaccines have each delivered about 2.5 billion doses. It was a phenomenal achievement.
    Never saw a sniff of it here after the first pass where it was used on some along with pfizer, certainly not seen in 2nd and 3rd jags.
  • IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    What was the EU legal action about pets all about?

    The EU had demanded full paperwork for pets in transit between the EU and the UK. Under Johnson's deal this applied to Northern Ireland but the British were refusing to enforce it. AIUI the legal action was to force them to actually do the fricking checks, and fine the UK for non-compliance.

    Now, the checks have been scrapped for Northern Ireland. Unfortunately not for the rest of the EU, but it's definitely a big improvement.
    Ah, thanks for explaining, cheers.
    Very few pet owners were bothering with the paperwork when visiting NI, anyway, because the UK had announced the abolition of checks. So the difference in practice isn’t that great - indeed there’s a new online form that has to be completed before taking a pet to NI. The better news is that, it appears, the loophole where GB pet owners can get an EU PP in NI and then travel freely around the EU remains open.
    Talking of pets, I hope Dilyn is OK tonight.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488

    Today is another step to rejoining.

    Horizon today, single market soon.

    Horizon, available to non-EU countries such as Israel. Single market, requires total alignment on rules. Totes the same thing.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    IanB2 said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Thank you for the link. Things that jump out:

    1) 1700 pages of EU law disapplied, with most trade rules coming from the UK legal side (including food safety), so ECJ presence seems pretty limited

    2) UK VAT and excise rates and calculations apply, not Irish or EU ones

    3) Free GB-NI trade for medicines, medical products, agriculture, construction goods, steel. UK regulation, not EU, on food, jewellery, clothes and medicines applies

    4) Data sharing based on existing data collection, so no additional bureaucratic burden for small businesses

    5) Stormont break only applies to NEW EU laws - but can be used just by a minority at Stormont AND challenges to it will not be decided by ECJ, but an independent body.

    6) Stormont break requires the block by Stormont AND a UK government veto

    7) New legal commitment on both UK and EU to protect UK internal market

    8) GB-NI trade will be based on UK commercial regulation, not international customs.

    Overall I would say this is more like 3-0 for the UK position than 3-1. But both sides win from the deal.
    It's just as advertised and, arguably, even better - a fundamental and radical rewrite of the whole NI protocol.

    Also, I note that it effectively introduces a new digital border between NI and Eire to monitor north-south movement to compensate, which is a massive concession and something I'd jump on if I were the DUP.
    It also sets the precedent of digital borders between the UK and EU, which could be used to reduce trade barriers elsewhere in future. AND the UK can still sign trade deals elsewhere and filter immigration.
    Rishi has played a blinder.

    Short of agreeing a bit of choreography where the whole EU Commission came into Whitehall and went down on both knees in front of the British government, crying and begging for mercy, whilst the national anthem was played on loudspeaker and a list of famous British military victories read aloud to them accompanied by the Life Guards shouting "Huzzah!" I don't see how how he could have done any better.
    True, but the really sad thing is that we didn’t need to elect a tactical genius to achieve all this, but simply to stop electing childish tw*ts who only saw the EU as a straw person to be insulted whenever it suited for personal or political advantage.
    Sunak and Cleverly were both Brexiteers who did their fair share of insulting the EU. I think your perception is just being skewed by a personal dislike of Johnson.
This discussion has been closed.