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Will Sunak’s position be stronger or weaker after today? – politicalbetting.com
Will Sunak’s position be stronger or weaker after today? – politicalbetting.com
However you look at it this is a massive day for the prime minister Rishi Sunak. Very quietly and very secretly over the past few weeks he has been trying to brokera a deal with Brussels, Irish Republicans, and the DUP about the Northern Ireland protocol. This was introduced by Boris Johnson as part of his efforts to get Brexit done.
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It’s usually junk, and only interested in making a political point one way or another.
Apparently (FT) the deal is several hundred pages…
But nor will most journalists, which is my main grumble here.
Boris, like Thatcher then, egging the rebels on. That of course culminated with Major's defeat of a leadership challenge by John Redwood in 1995
While the Tories masturbate over Europe.
The main message from that?
Totally out of touch.
Because.
Firstly I'm sick. Suspect I may have COVID.
And secondly. I can't be bothered anymore.
I’m sorry to hear.
Ships, courts and sausages: what the agreement actually means
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2c4abbde-b5ef-11ed-a1e6-75eebc433c21?shareToken=02207a2c1e387e92794c1ab8e2df8d16
I haven't been well since Thursday. But I haven't got any motivation or loyalty to make an effort to go in.
The tax and benefits system doesn't really incentivise it so I won't.
Plus. It's 12:30 and I am drunk. Far more enjoyable not to get up at 6:40.
Well, I like your posts, even if/when you are drunk.
Hope you get better soon.
I await the specifics.
ITS A GAME CHANGER. SUNAKS CLAUSE 4 MOMENT BLOWS THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION RESULT WIDE OPEN. There will be Delight amongst government, as they watch Starmer and his MPs queue up to hand Rishi Sunak his triumph over a previously disorderly party.
If you don’t think Rishi’s negotiation Triumph, whipping the EU ass in a way Boris failed to do, is a Black Swan events that blows wide open the next General Election result, then where is your evidence it’s not? We must look carefully for signs of this becoming a game changer for the Sunak government. For a start Just look at the delighted papers.
Big Concessions from EU - yells the Times, Our New Brexit Deal Best For Britain hails Express. Sunak on Brink of Historic Deal, squeals the excited Indy.
Amongst other news, Lassie to become extinct -Star. Lab Leak Most Likely cause of Pandemic - Telegraph. Exams Body let’s Pupils use AI chat bot to write their essays - Times. Pass the sick bag, Tony Blair’s hypocrisy on Russia is nauseating - the eye. Wine Crisis - Star.
I have something to share with your Enormo Haddock. I hope I have phrased that correctly.
I have been looking at a lot of F1 sporting press to build a eve of season picture.
To start at the top, Verstappen will win the title at a canter again this year. If anything they have given him an even faster lighter car.
The main pressure to Verstappen this year will come from Alonso in an Aston Martin. This is due to how long the Aston Martin can go before having to stop - and times competitive with Ferrari, red bull and Mercedes obviously - but the lack of tyre wear being their strong suit.
As a rule of thumb, those who were solid last year are still ahead of the curve whilst those who struggled last year are still behind the curve. Mercedes still struggling, so no title record for Lewis this year. McLaren are even worse so it’s torrid start to the season for Lando sadly, because I like him but also feel if you put him in same car as Hamilton and Verstappen he could better both.
For all my life I have looked at this as being a sport where drivers race each other, the driver being the key component. I don’t know when it happened but I don’t think that view is the real F1 at all. The F stands for formula - the actual competition and race is engineering to the formula teams given. Put Lando in one of this years Red Bulls and me in the other, and Verstappen and Hamilton in this years McClaren, and Lando and me will finish one two in the drivers championship, Verstappen and Hamilton struggling to get in the points. And I will be conceding the handicap of a little too much puppy fat too. So it’s not really about drivers competition, it’s an annual engineering competition.
Hope this helps for anyone thinking of placing a bet.
However, I'm going to break the habit of a lifetime and wait to read it before passing judgement.
But sadly, I can see it from both sides, Sunak needs an practical agreement that will work for the UK, NI and Ireland on the ground. But unfortunately the DUP etc and Sinn Féin are seeing what ever agreement is reached through the prism of who will come out on top on any future power sharing agreement in Stormont. A word of advice to the DUP, sometimes you have to accept electoral defeat and move on so you can rebuild, but a good start is to accept and take on board your own mistakes, and because only then will you get your political juggernaut moving again.
Let’s read the actual details and take a view, rather than everyone trying to either puff it up or denigrate it, before they’ve read the document. That includes the PM himself, with op-eds in both the Times and Telegraph today.
When the New Labour spin machine was at its height, the difference between the reception of Brown's budgets on the day, and a week later, after various measures like the abolition of the 10p tax rate fell apart under scrutiny, was often particularly stark.
Police interviewed senior SNP members over fraud allegations days before Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation.
Former treasurer Douglas Chapman spoke to detectives and other key figures were contacted in connection with the probe into claims of £600,000 of missing ring-fenced referendum cash – codenamed Operation Branchform.
Chief executive Peter Murrell, who is married to the First Minister, has yet to be contacted.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/police-quizzed-senior-snp-members-29314477
FPT: Mr. Rabbit, funny you should mention Alonso. I put a small bet on him to 'win' each way (podium bet may be better, but market wasn't up then and I think the odds might change) at 19 each way, third the odds top two.
Both Leclerc and Sainz made a few errors last year and both are still going to have to handle the Ferrari strategy team. Alonso in an Aston Martin could be Red Bull's biggest threat.
Politically, we do.
A small number of bastards could derail Major's government, because he only started with a majority of 21 (and falling). Cameron had a similarly small majority and May had no majority at all. In those scenarios, a well-organised clique has huge power.
Now? Rather less so. If the rebel count is below about 30, Rishi gets this through on Conservative votes. And some potential rebels (Boris especially) won't want to join a losing rebellion.
As long as there's nothing really terrible in the plan, we will be down to the hardest of hardcore Spartans, and they lose and are doomed to irrelevance. Paradoxically because of Boris's big win of 2019. What a shame, oh well, never mind.
Doubt it changes the game for 2024, or makes for a stable eternal Brexit, though.
However, The Times description is a very encouraging one and one hopes it is both accurate and sincere.
So doubtless the Tory nutters won’t like it, but hopefully will be marginalised.
Pet travellers will be watching anxiously to see what happens to the NI pet passport loophole.
Sunak deserves a lot of praise for this deal and to be honest it is not really about popularity but doing the right thing for the country and especially NI
The dinosaurs in the ERG need to be marginalised anyway
It is good to have a PM who does detail after the chaos of Johnson and Truss
Someone mentioned the Edinburgh Trams enquiry as one of this genre.
The Downing Street enquiry was, comparatively, short.
Its remit was broad enough to actually cover the issue. A classic would be to set the limits of the enquiry so narrowly that it can’t actually report on the issue. Imagine an enquiry that, accidentally, was restricted to what happened in the spare broom cupboard in the cellar.
The report from the enquiry was short, readable and contained the facts. As opposed to the less interesting part of the North Korean telephone directory.
Can anyone tell me why our nuclear generation is down by 50% on six weeks ago? It isn't exactly helping with our gas reserves.
If the latter, I suspect wasted money.
Mercedes will be solidly in third place behind Ferrari by the third or fourth race, I think.
Does it really matter if I push a few numbers around on a piece of paper?
No one reads the audit report anyway, and it's usually just a (template) pack of lies.
Restricting the remit of the enquiry to the point of irrelevance is step one. Step two is restricting the powers of the enquiry, so they can’t get access to anything. The important bit is then to make sure that procedurally, the little that they have to deal with takes lots of time. Judge led enquiries are good for this, since they acreate lawyers.
Only slackers just nobble the enquiry by appointing a mate to run it.
It’s is typical of the incompetence of Broxis Johnson's government that he setup an enquiry into his own actions that was actually independent, allowed to report in a short time, had sufficient powers to be allowed to find things out etc
Edit: the last point is perhaps the most important. You plan the result of the enquiry, before you start it.
Aston Martin suffered disproportionately, as did Mercedes, with the rule change due to a common feature (believe it was the rake). This season, the Aston Martin has changed a lot and should improve naturally, as it were, simply by unwinding that. It also seems more settled, from what I've read, than the Mercedes.
We'll see how things go long term but in the short term I think Alonso is the one to watch for the first race (while Verstappen, boringly, remains favourite to just crush the opposition. But maybe some have been sandbagging).
https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/power-station/daily-statuses
https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1630110799996809216
The Privileges Committee enquiry is being (I believe) heavily lawyered. Arguments over every sentence.
Really clever management to shut down 50% of your reactors for refuelling at a time when demand is likely to be at its highest. But I imagine it's not something you can put off.
And whilst the DUP opposition is a problem for getting the Assembly up and running again, there's a moderate chance that they just don't want to be second fiddle and will say No anyway.
Credit for using political capital on this normalisation. It doesn't even necessarily need to get the DUP on board immediately, if the practical positive effects seen by traders in NI mean they warm to it, then the DUP might bear some of the political risk once a new assembly poll is held.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election
My sense is that rebels will be in the 20s and low 30s at most.
There will be a large group of Tory MPs who might begrudgingly vote with the whip on any deal, but would go mad if denied the opportunity to vote for it.
They’d be nearly as mad as the members, who voted for not-Sunak but got him anyway.
Apparently EDF have recently announced another 15-month delay for Hinkley Point C - now due to start generating in September 2028.
EDIT: If the completion date for HPC slips any further then it would seem likely Britain would be reduced to a single operating nuclear power plant for a time - Sizewell B.
KBO.
So much for succession planning….
Keep buggering on. A bit retro.
As long as most Tory MPs back the Deal, even if 100 voted against it they would mainly be Boris loyalists and former Truss supporters and ERG backers who have always hated Rishi anyway
That doesn't seem to be happening however
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2022_Conservative_Party_leadership_election
There are two ways of resolving the impasse:
1. Convince the DUP to participate in power-sharing - which itself can be achieved in a number of ways.
2. Have the voters decide to bypass the DUP by voting for the UUP or Alliance in sufficient numbers
https://twitter.com/antonspisak/status/1630107177963646976
Indeed on the last 2 NI polls the DUP voteshare is at least equal to or more than that for the UUP and Alliance combined
Meanwhile the energy bill news (cost of energy falling but bills rising in April because government support is falling faster) probably has more relevance to the political scene than any of this.
Time to call out the dissidents