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Will Sunak’s position be stronger or weaker after today? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2023 in General
imageWill Sunak’s position be stronger or weaker after today? – politicalbetting.com

However you look at it this is a massive day for the prime minister Rishi Sunak. Very quietly and very secretly over the past few weeks he has been trying to brokera a deal with Brussels, Irish Republicans, and the DUP about the Northern Ireland protocol. This was introduced by Boris Johnson as part of his efforts to get Brexit done.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,178
    The Metro seriously needs to shorten its attempt at word play.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    On Topic stronger and weaker
  • ECJ still has jurisdiction, presumably we will leave the EHCR next as the Tories think they are the same thing
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited February 2023
    One thing to avoid will be most of the mainstream press analysis of the deal.

    It’s usually junk, and only interested in making a political point one way or another.

    Apparently (FT) the deal is several hundred pages…
  • One thing to avoid will be most of the mainstream press analysis of the deal.

    It’s usually junk, and only interested in making a political point one way or another.

    Apparently (FT) the deal is several hundred pages…

    Will the Tories even read it? Apparently they didn't last time
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited February 2023

    One thing to avoid will be most of the mainstream press analysis of the deal.

    It’s usually junk, and only interested in making a political point one way or another.

    Apparently (FT) the deal is several hundred pages…

    Will the Tories even read it? Apparently they didn't last time
    Certainly they won’t.
    But nor will most journalists, which is my main grumble here.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited February 2023
    If Sunak doesn't win over the ERG he will have his own version of Major's backbench Eurosceptic rebels after the Commons vote which passed the Maastricht Treaty even if most Tory MPs still back the Deal he produces with the EU on NI.

    Boris, like Thatcher then, egging the rebels on. That of course culminated with Major's defeat of a leadership challenge by John Redwood in 1995
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    edited February 2023
    Meanwhile. Energy bills rise by 20%.
    While the Tories masturbate over Europe.
    The main message from that?
    Totally out of touch.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    Times headline is savage for the Sunakites rag of choice.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    edited February 2023
    I've called in sick tomorrow.
    Because.
    Firstly I'm sick. Suspect I may have COVID.
    And secondly. I can't be bothered anymore.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    dixiedean said:

    I've called in sick tomorrow.
    Because.
    Firstly I'm sick.
    And secondly. I can't be bothered anymore.

    Quiet quitting?
    I’m sorry to hear.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,056
    edited February 2023

    One thing to avoid will be most of the mainstream press analysis of the deal.

    It’s usually junk, and only interested in making a political point one way or another.

    Apparently (FT) the deal is several hundred pages…

    Worse, here's some pre-analysis of what some dude at The Times thinks is in the deal:

    Ships, courts and sausages: what the agreement actually means

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2c4abbde-b5ef-11ed-a1e6-75eebc433c21?shareToken=02207a2c1e387e92794c1ab8e2df8d16
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    dixiedean said:

    I've called in sick tomorrow.
    Because.
    Firstly I'm sick.
    And secondly. I can't be bothered anymore.

    Quiet quitting?
    I’m sorry to hear.
    Not really.
    I haven't been well since Thursday. But I haven't got any motivation or loyalty to make an effort to go in.
    The tax and benefits system doesn't really incentivise it so I won't.
    Plus. It's 12:30 and I am drunk. Far more enjoyable not to get up at 6:40.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I've called in sick tomorrow.
    Because.
    Firstly I'm sick.
    And secondly. I can't be bothered anymore.

    Quiet quitting?
    I’m sorry to hear.
    Not really.
    I haven't been well since Thursday. But I haven't got any motivation or loyalty to make an effort to go in.
    The tax and benefits system doesn't really incentivise it so I won't.
    Plus. It's 12:30 and I am drunk. Far more enjoyable not to get up at 6:40.
    Ok.
    Well, I like your posts, even if/when you are drunk.
    Hope you get better soon.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    carnforth said:

    One thing to avoid will be most of the mainstream press analysis of the deal.

    It’s usually junk, and only interested in making a political point one way or another.

    Apparently (FT) the deal is several hundred pages…

    Worse, here's some pre-analysis of what some dude at The Times thinks is in the deal:

    Ships, courts and sausages: what the agreement actually means

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2c4abbde-b5ef-11ed-a1e6-75eebc433c21?shareToken=02207a2c1e387e92794c1ab8e2df8d16
    If this is accurate, it’s an excellent deal in my opinion. And a positive boon for Northern Ireland.

    I await the specifics.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited February 2023
    On topic. Will Rishi’s position be stronger or weaker.

    ITS A GAME CHANGER. SUNAKS CLAUSE 4 MOMENT BLOWS THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION RESULT WIDE OPEN. There will be Delight amongst government, as they watch Starmer and his MPs queue up to hand Rishi Sunak his triumph over a previously disorderly party.

    If you don’t think Rishi’s negotiation Triumph, whipping the EU ass in a way Boris failed to do, is a Black Swan events that blows wide open the next General Election result, then where is your evidence it’s not? We must look carefully for signs of this becoming a game changer for the Sunak government. For a start Just look at the delighted papers.

    Big Concessions from EU - yells the Times, Our New Brexit Deal Best For Britain hails Express. Sunak on Brink of Historic Deal, squeals the excited Indy.



    Amongst other news, Lassie to become extinct -Star. Lab Leak Most Likely cause of Pandemic - Telegraph. Exams Body let’s Pupils use AI chat bot to write their essays - Times. Pass the sick bag, Tony Blair’s hypocrisy on Russia is nauseating - the eye. Wine Crisis - Star.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited February 2023
    @Morris_Dancer
    I have something to share with your Enormo Haddock. I hope I have phrased that correctly.

    I have been looking at a lot of F1 sporting press to build a eve of season picture.

    To start at the top, Verstappen will win the title at a canter again this year. If anything they have given him an even faster lighter car.

    The main pressure to Verstappen this year will come from Alonso in an Aston Martin. This is due to how long the Aston Martin can go before having to stop - and times competitive with Ferrari, red bull and Mercedes obviously - but the lack of tyre wear being their strong suit.

    As a rule of thumb, those who were solid last year are still ahead of the curve whilst those who struggled last year are still behind the curve. Mercedes still struggling, so no title record for Lewis this year. McLaren are even worse so it’s torrid start to the season for Lando sadly, because I like him but also feel if you put him in same car as Hamilton and Verstappen he could better both.

    For all my life I have looked at this as being a sport where drivers race each other, the driver being the key component. I don’t know when it happened but I don’t think that view is the real F1 at all. The F stands for formula - the actual competition and race is engineering to the formula teams given. Put Lando in one of this years Red Bulls and me in the other, and Verstappen and Hamilton in this years McClaren, and Lando and me will finish one two in the drivers championship, Verstappen and Hamilton struggling to get in the points. And I will be conceding the handicap of a little too much puppy fat too. So it’s not really about drivers competition, it’s an annual engineering competition.

    Hope this helps for anyone thinking of placing a bet.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    The only way that the Conservatives currently tend to reap votes on Europe is by bashing Brussels, this plays into Farage's narrative and encourages the ERG loons to make wild statements seeking media attention, it does need sorting but I dont think that Sunak will reap any real benefits - it will come across as the Tories banging on about Europe (again) and solves no real problems re tomato shortages, cost of living, pay freezes for the NHS etc... in short it may bolster Sunak within the Tory moderates but wont solve the main issues of the day.... if anything it gives Nigel F & BJ another rock to chuck at No 10.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    I haven't read the deal, which shouldn't stop me from commenting on it. (It certainly won't stop the usual suspects.)

    However, I'm going to break the habit of a lifetime and wait to read it before passing judgement.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    rcs1000 said:

    I haven't read the deal, which shouldn't stop me from commenting on it. (It certainly won't stop the usual suspects.)

    However, I'm going to break the habit of a lifetime and wait to read it before passing judgement.

    Agreed. Rishi Sunak has been dealt a horrible hand by his predecessors Theresa May and Boris Johnson, this is not helped by the fact that the DUP among others of similar party political leanings in NI who have painted themselves into a very tight corner in the Northern Ireland Assembly. Frustratingly, there has never been a more cordial and receptive relationship between No10 and the EU since the UK EU Ref result was announced, and down to in large part the UK's unwavering support of Ukraine from those early days until now. We called that one right, and despite being out of the EU, lets not even mention the rammy the Covid Pandemic caused...

    But sadly, I can see it from both sides, Sunak needs an practical agreement that will work for the UK, NI and Ireland on the ground. But unfortunately the DUP etc and Sinn Féin are seeing what ever agreement is reached through the prism of who will come out on top on any future power sharing agreement in Stormont. A word of advice to the DUP, sometimes you have to accept electoral defeat and move on so you can rebuild, but a good start is to accept and take on board your own mistakes, and because only then will you get your political juggernaut moving again.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,003
    rcs1000 said:

    I haven't read the deal, which shouldn't stop me from commenting on it. (It certainly won't stop the usual suspects.)

    However, I'm going to break the habit of a lifetime and wait to read it before passing judgement.

    I have no idea what the end deal will be either. Similarly to you, I am going to see what's in it before giving a view. Unlike 80% of posters here, I don't think people will be able to predict my response.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Way too many people seem to have an opinion on this ‘deal’, when no-one has actually read it.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Way too many people seem to have an opinion on this ‘deal’, when no-one has actually read it.

    I'm hoping Sunak has read it...
    I can guarantee that the DUP, ERG, Frost et al... will have denounced it before its even been signed....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Way too many people seem to have an opinion on this ‘deal’, when no-one has actually read it.

    I'm hoping Sunak has read it...
    The hype surrounding it, reminds me of Cameron’s EU deal in Feb 2016, which was wonderful until it wasn’t. Or Mrs May’s famous deal that wouldn’t die, no matter how many times it was voted down in Parliament.

    Let’s read the actual details and take a view, rather than everyone trying to either puff it up or denigrate it, before they’ve read the document. That includes the PM himself, with op-eds in both the Times and Telegraph today.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    edited February 2023

    One thing to avoid will be most of the mainstream press analysis of the deal.

    It’s usually junk, and only interested in making a political point one way or another.

    Apparently (FT) the deal is several hundred pages…

    Yes. It is like final reaction to a budget, after serious people have read the thing, which is often very different from the initial reaction, which comes from government talking points.

    When the New Labour spin machine was at its height, the difference between the reception of Brown's budgets on the day, and a week later, after various measures like the abolition of the 10p tax rate fell apart under scrutiny, was often particularly stark.
  • While we’re busy not commenting on a deal none of us have read:

    Police interviewed senior SNP members over fraud allegations days before Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation.

    Former treasurer Douglas Chapman spoke to detectives and other key figures were contacted in connection with the probe into claims of £600,000 of missing ring-fenced referendum cash – codenamed Operation Branchform.

    Chief executive Peter Murrell, who is married to the First Minister, has yet to be contacted.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/police-quizzed-senior-snp-members-29314477
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    carnforth said:

    One thing to avoid will be most of the mainstream press analysis of the deal.

    It’s usually junk, and only interested in making a political point one way or another.

    Apparently (FT) the deal is several hundred pages…

    Worse, here's some pre-analysis of what some dude at The Times thinks is in the deal:

    Ships, courts and sausages: what the agreement actually means

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2c4abbde-b5ef-11ed-a1e6-75eebc433c21?shareToken=02207a2c1e387e92794c1ab8e2df8d16
    If this is accurate, it’s an excellent deal in my opinion. And a positive boon for Northern Ireland.

    I await the specifics.
    If the Times description is accurate it seems a very good deal indeed, bringing NI back under the aegis of the UK rather than where Boris had rather carelessly left it. The upside of Boris's deal was the access that NI continued to get to the SM in general and the frictionless border with Eire in particular. The downsides were massive with NI effectively ceasing to be a part of the UK. This deal, if described correctly, seems to redress that balance.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    FPT: Mr. Rabbit, funny you should mention Alonso. I put a small bet on him to 'win' each way (podium bet may be better, but market wasn't up then and I think the odds might change) at 19 each way, third the odds top two.

    Both Leclerc and Sainz made a few errors last year and both are still going to have to handle the Ferrari strategy team. Alonso in an Aston Martin could be Red Bull's biggest threat.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    Good morning, everyone.

    FPT: Mr. Rabbit, funny you should mention Alonso. I put a small bet on him to 'win' each way (podium bet may be better, but market wasn't up then and I think the odds might change) at 19 each way, third the odds top two.

    Both Leclerc and Sainz made a few errors last year and both are still going to have to handle the Ferrari strategy team. Alonso in an Aston Martin could be Red Bull's biggest threat.

    “Mr. Rabbit”? Have I missed something?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Good morning, everyone.

    FPT: Mr. Rabbit, funny you should mention Alonso. I put a small bet on him to 'win' each way (podium bet may be better, but market wasn't up then and I think the odds might change) at 19 each way, third the odds top two.

    Both Leclerc and Sainz made a few errors last year and both are still going to have to handle the Ferrari strategy team. Alonso in an Aston Martin could be Red Bull's biggest threat.

    Apparently, there has been a change at the top of Ferrari’s strategy department over the winter.
  • We have to assume (don't we?) that the deal is something for something, and until both something's are clear, who knows?

    Politically, we do.

    A small number of bastards could derail Major's government, because he only started with a majority of 21 (and falling). Cameron had a similarly small majority and May had no majority at all. In those scenarios, a well-organised clique has huge power.

    Now? Rather less so. If the rebel count is below about 30, Rishi gets this through on Conservative votes. And some potential rebels (Boris especially) won't want to join a losing rebellion.

    As long as there's nothing really terrible in the plan, we will be down to the hardest of hardcore Spartans, and they lose and are doomed to irrelevance. Paradoxically because of Boris's big win of 2019. What a shame, oh well, never mind.

    Doubt it changes the game for 2024, or makes for a stable eternal Brexit, though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    DougSeal said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    FPT: Mr. Rabbit, funny you should mention Alonso. I put a small bet on him to 'win' each way (podium bet may be better, but market wasn't up then and I think the odds might change) at 19 each way, third the odds top two.

    Both Leclerc and Sainz made a few errors last year and both are still going to have to handle the Ferrari strategy team. Alonso in an Aston Martin could be Red Bull's biggest threat.

    “Mr. Rabbit”? Have I missed something?
    Missed a rabbit?
  • rcs1000 said:

    I haven't read the deal, which shouldn't stop me from commenting on it. (It certainly won't stop the usual suspects.)

    However, I'm going to break the habit of a lifetime and wait to read it before passing judgement.

    You're such a weirdo.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    DougSeal said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    FPT: Mr. Rabbit, funny you should mention Alonso. I put a small bet on him to 'win' each way (podium bet may be better, but market wasn't up then and I think the odds might change) at 19 each way, third the odds top two.

    Both Leclerc and Sainz made a few errors last year and both are still going to have to handle the Ferrari strategy team. Alonso in an Aston Martin could be Red Bull's biggest threat.

    “Mr. Rabbit”? Have I missed something?
    MD simply unable to believe anyone but a man follows F1 ?
  • DavidL said:

    carnforth said:

    One thing to avoid will be most of the mainstream press analysis of the deal.

    It’s usually junk, and only interested in making a political point one way or another.

    Apparently (FT) the deal is several hundred pages…

    Worse, here's some pre-analysis of what some dude at The Times thinks is in the deal:

    Ships, courts and sausages: what the agreement actually means

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2c4abbde-b5ef-11ed-a1e6-75eebc433c21?shareToken=02207a2c1e387e92794c1ab8e2df8d16
    If this is accurate, it’s an excellent deal in my opinion. And a positive boon for Northern Ireland.

    I await the specifics.
    If the Times description is accurate it seems a very good deal indeed, bringing NI back under the aegis of the UK rather than where Boris had rather carelessly left it. The upside of Boris's deal was the access that NI continued to get to the SM in general and the frictionless border with Eire in particular. The downsides were massive with NI effectively ceasing to be a part of the UK. This deal, if described correctly, seems to redress that balance.
    What I'll be looking for (if I get the time to have a look) is what the 3% of EU single market rules that will still apply look like- they could be a very significant 3%.

    However, The Times description is a very encouraging one and one hopes it is both accurate and sincere.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    edited February 2023

    We have to assume (don't we?) that the deal is something for something, and until both something's are clear, who knows?

    Politically, we do.

    A small number of bastards could derail Major's government, because he only started with a majority of 21 (and falling). Cameron had a similarly small majority and May had no majority at all. In those scenarios, a well-organised clique has huge power.

    Now? Rather less so. If the rebel count is below about 30, Rishi gets this through on Conservative votes. And some potential rebels (Boris especially) won't want to join a losing rebellion.

    As long as there's nothing really terrible in the plan, we will be down to the hardest of hardcore Spartans, and they lose and are doomed to irrelevance. Paradoxically because of Boris's big win of 2019. What a shame, oh well, never mind.

    Doubt it changes the game for 2024, or makes for a stable eternal Brexit, though.

    On 2024 there is a chance of an increased perception of competence which might help at the margins but it is, I agree, no game changer. On Brexit I am hoping the more constructive approach without the need to prematurely announce "triumphs" where the EU has "folded" with some gratuitous insults chucked in for the sake of the Daily Express just might produce some broader benefits. It would be nice to have a government that negotiates like adults again. Its been a while.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    From the details so far, it looks like a mature attempt to find a way through a potentially intractable problem.

    So doubtless the Tory nutters won’t like it, but hopefully will be marginalised.

    Pet travellers will be watching anxiously to see what happens to the NI pet passport loophole.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    carnforth said:

    One thing to avoid will be most of the mainstream press analysis of the deal.

    It’s usually junk, and only interested in making a political point one way or another.

    Apparently (FT) the deal is several hundred pages…

    Worse, here's some pre-analysis of what some dude at The Times thinks is in the deal:

    Ships, courts and sausages: what the agreement actually means

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2c4abbde-b5ef-11ed-a1e6-75eebc433c21?shareToken=02207a2c1e387e92794c1ab8e2df8d16
    If this is accurate, it’s an excellent deal in my opinion. And a positive boon for Northern Ireland.

    I await the specifics.
    If the Times description is accurate it seems a very good deal indeed, bringing NI back under the aegis of the UK rather than where Boris had rather carelessly left it. The upside of Boris's deal was the access that NI continued to get to the SM in general and the frictionless border with Eire in particular. The downsides were massive with NI effectively ceasing to be a part of the UK. This deal, if described correctly, seems to redress that balance.
    What I'll be looking for (if I get the time to have a look) is what the 3% of EU single market rules that will still apply look like- they could be a very significant 3%.

    However, The Times description is a very encouraging one and one hopes it is both accurate and sincere.
    That's the bit we don't know yet and I agree, it could be significant. Perhaps the most intractable areas are with "live" livestock as we have seen with crustaceans etc. If I had to guess I would suspect it would be in that area.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    DavidL said:

    While we’re busy not commenting on a deal none of us have read:

    Police interviewed senior SNP members over fraud allegations days before Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation.

    Former treasurer Douglas Chapman spoke to detectives and other key figures were contacted in connection with the probe into claims of £600,000 of missing ring-fenced referendum cash – codenamed Operation Branchform.

    Chief executive Peter Murrell, who is married to the First Minister, has yet to be contacted.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/police-quizzed-senior-snp-members-29314477

    The problem is not that the money is "missing". The problem is that it has been very largely spent to keep the SNP solvent. We have known this for the best part of a year. I am completely lost to work out what the police are still "investigating". Either there has been a breach of trust here that amounts to a fraud or there hasn't been. The modern tendency for "investigations" to go on and on (parties in Downing Street come to mind) pointlessly is beyond irritating.
    David , has been a slow struggle to get anything done due to perpetrators having lots of chums in the right places, changes there due to UK having milked Sturgeon and hey presto it starts to fall apart. I expect more retirements soon as well, hopefully the whole house of crads falls and we get the truth on the stitch up attempts. Be some nervous liars about at present.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    While we’re busy not commenting on a deal none of us have read:

    Police interviewed senior SNP members over fraud allegations days before Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation.

    Former treasurer Douglas Chapman spoke to detectives and other key figures were contacted in connection with the probe into claims of £600,000 of missing ring-fenced referendum cash – codenamed Operation Branchform.

    Chief executive Peter Murrell, who is married to the First Minister, has yet to be contacted.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/police-quizzed-senior-snp-members-29314477

    The problem is not that the money is "missing". The problem is that it has been very largely spent to keep the SNP solvent. We have known this for the best part of a year. I am completely lost to work out what the police are still "investigating". Either there has been a breach of trust here that amounts to a fraud or there hasn't been. The modern tendency for "investigations" to go on and on (parties in Downing Street come to mind) pointlessly is beyond irritating.
    David , has been a slow struggle to get anything done due to perpetrators having lots of chums in the right places, changes there due to UK having milked Sturgeon and hey presto it starts to fall apart. I expect more retirements soon as well, hopefully the whole house of crads falls and we get the truth on the stitch up attempts. Be some nervous liars about at present.
    Peter Murrell's position, at least, must be highly precarious. And that may well prove a breaking of the logjam. The whole thing of him lending a six figure sum to the SNP and, of course, refusing to provide the accounts to the previous Treasurer, is distinctly odd. We may well find that that £600k is not the only problem with the accounts.
  • Good morning

    Sunak deserves a lot of praise for this deal and to be honest it is not really about popularity but doing the right thing for the country and especially NI

    The dinosaurs in the ERG need to be marginalised anyway

    It is good to have a PM who does detail after the chaos of Johnson and Truss
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    DavidL said:

    While we’re busy not commenting on a deal none of us have read:

    Police interviewed senior SNP members over fraud allegations days before Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation.

    Former treasurer Douglas Chapman spoke to detectives and other key figures were contacted in connection with the probe into claims of £600,000 of missing ring-fenced referendum cash – codenamed Operation Branchform.

    Chief executive Peter Murrell, who is married to the First Minister, has yet to be contacted.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/police-quizzed-senior-snp-members-29314477

    The problem is not that the money is "missing". The problem is that it has been very largely spent to keep the SNP solvent. We have known this for the best part of a year. I am completely lost to work out what the police are still "investigating". Either there has been a breach of trust here that amounts to a fraud or there hasn't been. The modern tendency for "investigations" to go on and on (parties in Downing Street come to mind) pointlessly is beyond irritating.
    You do need to read/watch Yes Minister. A good “enquiry” can be kept going for decades, until everyone has forgotten about the issue. Or died. Certainly long enough that you can rewrite history to whitewash the guilty, blame the innocent etc.

    Someone mentioned the Edinburgh Trams enquiry as one of this genre.

    The Downing Street enquiry was, comparatively, short.

    Its remit was broad enough to actually cover the issue. A classic would be to set the limits of the enquiry so narrowly that it can’t actually report on the issue. Imagine an enquiry that, accidentally, was restricted to what happened in the spare broom cupboard in the cellar.

    The report from the enquiry was short, readable and contained the facts. As opposed to the less interesting part of the North Korean telephone directory.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    DavidL said:

    While we’re busy not commenting on a deal none of us have read:

    Police interviewed senior SNP members over fraud allegations days before Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation.

    Former treasurer Douglas Chapman spoke to detectives and other key figures were contacted in connection with the probe into claims of £600,000 of missing ring-fenced referendum cash – codenamed Operation Branchform.

    Chief executive Peter Murrell, who is married to the First Minister, has yet to be contacted.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/police-quizzed-senior-snp-members-29314477

    The problem is not that the money is "missing". The problem is that it has been very largely spent to keep the SNP solvent. We have known this for the best part of a year. I am completely lost to work out what the police are still "investigating". Either there has been a breach of trust here that amounts to a fraud or there hasn't been. The modern tendency for "investigations" to go on and on (parties in Downing Street come to mind) pointlessly is beyond irritating.
    You do need to read/watch Yes Minister. A good “enquiry” can be kept going for decades, until everyone has forgotten about the issue. Or died. Certainly long enough that you can rewrite history to whitewash the guilty, blame the innocent etc.

    Someone mentioned the Edinburgh Trams enquiry as one of this genre.

    The Downing Street enquiry was, comparatively, short.

    Its remit was broad enough to actually cover the issue. A classic would be to set the limits of the enquiry so narrowly that it can’t actually report on the issue. Imagine an enquiry that, accidentally, was restricted to what happened in the spare broom cupboard in the cellar.

    The report from the enquiry was short, readable and contained the facts. As opposed to the less interesting part of the North Korean telephone directory.
    That does seem to be roughly what happened at the DfE.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    While we’re busy not commenting on a deal none of us have read:

    Police interviewed senior SNP members over fraud allegations days before Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation.

    Former treasurer Douglas Chapman spoke to detectives and other key figures were contacted in connection with the probe into claims of £600,000 of missing ring-fenced referendum cash – codenamed Operation Branchform.

    Chief executive Peter Murrell, who is married to the First Minister, has yet to be contacted.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/police-quizzed-senior-snp-members-29314477

    The problem is not that the money is "missing". The problem is that it has been very largely spent to keep the SNP solvent. We have known this for the best part of a year. I am completely lost to work out what the police are still "investigating". Either there has been a breach of trust here that amounts to a fraud or there hasn't been. The modern tendency for "investigations" to go on and on (parties in Downing Street come to mind) pointlessly is beyond irritating.
    You do need to read/watch Yes Minister. A good “enquiry” can be kept going for decades, until everyone has forgotten about the issue. Or died. Certainly long enough that you can rewrite history to whitewash the guilty, blame the innocent etc.

    Someone mentioned the Edinburgh Trams enquiry as one of this genre.

    The Downing Street enquiry was, comparatively, short.

    Its remit was broad enough to actually cover the issue. A classic would be to set the limits of the enquiry so narrowly that it can’t actually report on the issue. Imagine an enquiry that, accidentally, was restricted to what happened in the spare broom cupboard in the cellar.

    The report from the enquiry was short, readable and contained the facts. As opposed to the less interesting part of the North Korean telephone directory.
    I think that the Edinburgh Trams Inquiry was me. And I don't agree that the parties investigations were short. They are, after all, still going on with the privileges committee and potential charges of misleading the House directed at Boris. Why is this still pending? What on earth do we not know?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Anyway, on a slightly different topic:

    Can anyone tell me why our nuclear generation is down by 50% on six weeks ago? It isn't exactly helping with our gas reserves.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Good morning, everyone.

    FPT: Mr. Rabbit, funny you should mention Alonso. I put a small bet on him to 'win' each way (podium bet may be better, but market wasn't up then and I think the odds might change) at 19 each way, third the odds top two.

    Both Leclerc and Sainz made a few errors last year and both are still going to have to handle the Ferrari strategy team. Alonso in an Aston Martin could be Red Bull's biggest threat.

    Is that for the season or the first race ?
    If the latter, I suspect wasted money.

    Mercedes will be solidly in third place behind Ferrari by the third or fourth race, I think.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678
    dixiedean said:

    I've called in sick tomorrow.
    Because.
    Firstly I'm sick. Suspect I may have COVID.
    And secondly. I can't be bothered anymore.

    I'm starting to feel like that (can't be bothered bit).

    Does it really matter if I push a few numbers around on a piece of paper?
    No one reads the audit report anyway, and it's usually just a (template) pack of lies.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    edited February 2023
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    While we’re busy not commenting on a deal none of us have read:

    Police interviewed senior SNP members over fraud allegations days before Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation.

    Former treasurer Douglas Chapman spoke to detectives and other key figures were contacted in connection with the probe into claims of £600,000 of missing ring-fenced referendum cash – codenamed Operation Branchform.

    Chief executive Peter Murrell, who is married to the First Minister, has yet to be contacted.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/police-quizzed-senior-snp-members-29314477

    The problem is not that the money is "missing". The problem is that it has been very largely spent to keep the SNP solvent. We have known this for the best part of a year. I am completely lost to work out what the police are still "investigating". Either there has been a breach of trust here that amounts to a fraud or there hasn't been. The modern tendency for "investigations" to go on and on (parties in Downing Street come to mind) pointlessly is beyond irritating.
    You do need to read/watch Yes Minister. A good “enquiry” can be kept going for decades, until everyone has forgotten about the issue. Or died. Certainly long enough that you can rewrite history to whitewash the guilty, blame the innocent etc.

    Someone mentioned the Edinburgh Trams enquiry as one of this genre.

    The Downing Street enquiry was, comparatively, short.

    Its remit was broad enough to actually cover the issue. A classic would be to set the limits of the enquiry so narrowly that it can’t actually report on the issue. Imagine an enquiry that, accidentally, was restricted to what happened in the spare broom cupboard in the cellar.

    The report from the enquiry was short, readable and contained the facts. As opposed to the less interesting part of the North Korean telephone directory.
    That does seem to be roughly what happened at the DfE.
    That is because the DfE, like many government departments, is very good at playing the administrative game.

    Restricting the remit of the enquiry to the point of irrelevance is step one. Step two is restricting the powers of the enquiry, so they can’t get access to anything. The important bit is then to make sure that procedurally, the little that they have to deal with takes lots of time. Judge led enquiries are good for this, since they acreate lawyers.

    Only slackers just nobble the enquiry by appointing a mate to run it.

    It’s is typical of the incompetence of Broxis Johnson's government that he setup an enquiry into his own actions that was actually independent, allowed to report in a short time, had sufficient powers to be allowed to find things out etc

    Edit: the last point is perhaps the most important. You plan the result of the enquiry, before you start it.
  • Mr. B, first race.

    Aston Martin suffered disproportionately, as did Mercedes, with the rule change due to a common feature (believe it was the rake). This season, the Aston Martin has changed a lot and should improve naturally, as it were, simply by unwinding that. It also seems more settled, from what I've read, than the Mercedes.

    We'll see how things go long term but in the short term I think Alonso is the one to watch for the first race (while Verstappen, boringly, remains favourite to just crush the opposition. But maybe some have been sandbagging).
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Good morning

    Sunak deserves a lot of praise for this deal and to be honest it is not really about popularity but doing the right thing for the country and especially NI

    The dinosaurs in the ERG need to be marginalised anyway

    It is good to have a PM who does detail after the chaos of Johnson and Truss

    It would be a serious mistake for him to run away from a vote again. He looks like an Italian technocrat.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    ydoethur said:

    Anyway, on a slightly different topic:

    Can anyone tell me why our nuclear generation is down by 50% on six weeks ago? It isn't exactly helping with our gas reserves.

    This page is a pretty good overview. Mostly seems to be routine refuelling, though reactor 8 at Heysham 2 has a turbine vibration issue which is delaying its return to generation.

    https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/power-station/daily-statuses
  • I hope Humza will reflect that merely to say this is to be “transphobic” in terms of the (unlawful) definition of “transphobia” adopted by the NEC & would potentially open him up to a charge of hate speech under his own, as yet not in force, #HateCrimeBill 🤷‍♀️

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1630110799996809216
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    While we’re busy not commenting on a deal none of us have read:

    Police interviewed senior SNP members over fraud allegations days before Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation.

    Former treasurer Douglas Chapman spoke to detectives and other key figures were contacted in connection with the probe into claims of £600,000 of missing ring-fenced referendum cash – codenamed Operation Branchform.

    Chief executive Peter Murrell, who is married to the First Minister, has yet to be contacted.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/police-quizzed-senior-snp-members-29314477

    The problem is not that the money is "missing". The problem is that it has been very largely spent to keep the SNP solvent. We have known this for the best part of a year. I am completely lost to work out what the police are still "investigating". Either there has been a breach of trust here that amounts to a fraud or there hasn't been. The modern tendency for "investigations" to go on and on (parties in Downing Street come to mind) pointlessly is beyond irritating.
    You do need to read/watch Yes Minister. A good “enquiry” can be kept going for decades, until everyone has forgotten about the issue. Or died. Certainly long enough that you can rewrite history to whitewash the guilty, blame the innocent etc.

    Someone mentioned the Edinburgh Trams enquiry as one of this genre.

    The Downing Street enquiry was, comparatively, short.

    Its remit was broad enough to actually cover the issue. A classic would be to set the limits of the enquiry so narrowly that it can’t actually report on the issue. Imagine an enquiry that, accidentally, was restricted to what happened in the spare broom cupboard in the cellar.

    The report from the enquiry was short, readable and contained the facts. As opposed to the less interesting part of the North Korean telephone directory.
    I think that the Edinburgh Trams Inquiry was me. And I don't agree that the parties investigations were short. They are, after all, still going on with the privileges committee and potential charges of misleading the House directed at Boris. Why is this still pending? What on earth do we not know?
    I was referring to the actual Downing Street enquiry. Which actually did its job,

    The Privileges Committee enquiry is being (I believe) heavily lawyered. Arguments over every sentence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Jonathan said:

    Good morning

    Sunak deserves a lot of praise for this deal and to be honest it is not really about popularity but doing the right thing for the country and especially NI

    The dinosaurs in the ERG need to be marginalised anyway

    It is good to have a PM who does detail after the chaos of Johnson and Truss

    It would be a serious mistake for him to run away from a vote again. He looks like an Italian technocrat.
    The reason Sunak sensibly wants to avoid an actual vote is Labour will vote for it but up to 100 ERG and Eurosceptic Conservative MPs and the DUP would likely vote against
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited February 2023

    ydoethur said:

    Anyway, on a slightly different topic:

    Can anyone tell me why our nuclear generation is down by 50% on six weeks ago? It isn't exactly helping with our gas reserves.

    This page is a pretty good overview. Mostly seems to be routine refuelling, though reactor 8 at Heysham 2 has a turbine vibration issue which is delaying its return to generation.

    https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/power-station/daily-statuses
    Thanks.

    Really clever management to shut down 50% of your reactors for refuelling at a time when demand is likely to be at its highest. But I imagine it's not something you can put off.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    While we’re busy not commenting on a deal none of us have read:

    Police interviewed senior SNP members over fraud allegations days before Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation.

    Former treasurer Douglas Chapman spoke to detectives and other key figures were contacted in connection with the probe into claims of £600,000 of missing ring-fenced referendum cash – codenamed Operation Branchform.

    Chief executive Peter Murrell, who is married to the First Minister, has yet to be contacted.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/police-quizzed-senior-snp-members-29314477

    The problem is not that the money is "missing". The problem is that it has been very largely spent to keep the SNP solvent. We have known this for the best part of a year. I am completely lost to work out what the police are still "investigating". Either there has been a breach of trust here that amounts to a fraud or there hasn't been. The modern tendency for "investigations" to go on and on (parties in Downing Street come to mind) pointlessly is beyond irritating.
    You do need to read/watch Yes Minister. A good “enquiry” can be kept going for decades, until everyone has forgotten about the issue. Or died. Certainly long enough that you can rewrite history to whitewash the guilty, blame the innocent etc.

    Someone mentioned the Edinburgh Trams enquiry as one of this genre.

    The Downing Street enquiry was, comparatively, short.

    Its remit was broad enough to actually cover the issue. A classic would be to set the limits of the enquiry so narrowly that it can’t actually report on the issue. Imagine an enquiry that, accidentally, was restricted to what happened in the spare broom cupboard in the cellar.

    The report from the enquiry was short, readable and contained the facts. As opposed to the less interesting part of the North Korean telephone directory.
    I think that the Edinburgh Trams Inquiry was me. And I don't agree that the parties investigations were short. They are, after all, still going on with the privileges committee and potential charges of misleading the House directed at Boris. Why is this still pending? What on earth do we not know?
    I was referring to the actual Downing Street enquiry. Which actually did its job,

    The Privileges Committee enquiry is being (I believe) heavily lawyered. Arguments over every sentence.
    Hopefully about whether the sentence is 40 years or life.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    I hope Humza will reflect that merely to say this is to be “transphobic” in terms of the (unlawful) definition of “transphobia” adopted by the NEC & would potentially open him up to a charge of hate speech under his own, as yet not in force, #HateCrimeBill 🤷‍♀️

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1630110799996809216

    Such a pity that Sturgeon managed to keep Cherry in the Commons when she wanted to come to Edinburgh. She would have been a formidable candidate if she was in the right Parliament.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    We have to assume (don't we?) that the deal is something for something, and until both something's are clear, who knows?

    Politically, we do.

    A small number of bastards could derail Major's government, because he only started with a majority of 21 (and falling). Cameron had a similarly small majority and May had no majority at all. In those scenarios, a well-organised clique has huge power.

    Now? Rather less so. If the rebel count is below about 30, Rishi gets this through on Conservative votes. And some potential rebels (Boris especially) won't want to join a losing rebellion.

    As long as there's nothing really terrible in the plan, we will be down to the hardest of hardcore Spartans, and they lose and are doomed to irrelevance. Paradoxically because of Boris's big win of 2019. What a shame, oh well, never mind.

    Doubt it changes the game for 2024, or makes for a stable eternal Brexit, though.

    Starmer has said Labour will vote for Sunak's Deal though while Corbyn and John Smith ensured Labour voted with anti EU Tory rebels against May's Deal and Major's Maastricht Treaty
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good morning

    Sunak deserves a lot of praise for this deal and to be honest it is not really about popularity but doing the right thing for the country and especially NI

    The dinosaurs in the ERG need to be marginalised anyway

    It is good to have a PM who does detail after the chaos of Johnson and Truss

    It would be a serious mistake for him to run away from a vote again. He looks like an Italian technocrat.
    The reason Sunak sensibly wants to avoid an actual vote is Labour will vote for it but up to 100 ERG and Eurosceptic Conservative MPs and the DUP would likely vote against
    An unelected prime minister running away from a democratic vote he’s actually likely to win. Nanny knows best is not a great look.
  • HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good morning

    Sunak deserves a lot of praise for this deal and to be honest it is not really about popularity but doing the right thing for the country and especially NI

    The dinosaurs in the ERG need to be marginalised anyway

    It is good to have a PM who does detail after the chaos of Johnson and Truss

    It would be a serious mistake for him to run away from a vote again. He looks like an Italian technocrat.
    The reason Sunak sensibly wants to avoid an actual vote is Labour will vote for it but up to 100 ERG and Eurosceptic Conservative MPs and the DUP would likely vote against
    If it is 100 Conservative MPs against the plan, Sunak's in trouble anyway. It's possible, but is it likely?

    And whilst the DUP opposition is a problem for getting the Assembly up and running again, there's a moderate chance that they just don't want to be second fiddle and will say No anyway.
  • DavidL said:

    I hope Humza will reflect that merely to say this is to be “transphobic” in terms of the (unlawful) definition of “transphobia” adopted by the NEC & would potentially open him up to a charge of hate speech under his own, as yet not in force, #HateCrimeBill 🤷‍♀️

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1630110799996809216

    Such a pity that Sturgeon managed to keep Cherry in the Commons when she wanted to come to Edinburgh. She would have been a formidable candidate if she was in the right Parliament.
    Still, she’s backing the formidable Regan..
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    Sunak knows that he could be toppled by this, but that after the last 12 months that would be the death knell of the Tory party and MPs might be reluctant to blow their last chance of normality.

    Credit for using political capital on this normalisation. It doesn't even necessarily need to get the DUP on board immediately, if the practical positive effects seen by traders in NI mean they warm to it, then the DUP might bear some of the political risk once a new assembly poll is held.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Pro_Rata said:

    Sunak knows that he could be toppled by this, but that after the last 12 months that would be the death knell of the Tory party and MPs might be reluctant to blow their last chance of normality.

    Credit for using political capital on this normalisation. It doesn't even necessarily need to get the DUP on board immediately, if the practical positive effects seen by traders in NI mean they warm to it, then the DUP might bear some of the political risk once a new assembly poll is held.

    The DUP are up 4% on last year's Stormont election in the latest poll, mainly from squeezing the UUP and TUV
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited February 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good morning

    Sunak deserves a lot of praise for this deal and to be honest it is not really about popularity but doing the right thing for the country and especially NI

    The dinosaurs in the ERG need to be marginalised anyway

    It is good to have a PM who does detail after the chaos of Johnson and Truss

    It would be a serious mistake for him to run away from a vote again. He looks like an Italian technocrat.
    The reason Sunak sensibly wants to avoid an actual vote is Labour will vote for it but up to 100 ERG and Eurosceptic Conservative MPs and the DUP would likely vote against
    If it is 100 Conservative MPs against the plan, Sunak's in trouble anyway. It's possible, but is it likely?

    And whilst the DUP opposition is a problem for getting the Assembly up and running again, there's a moderate chance that they just don't want to be second fiddle and will say No anyway.
    Sunak could survive even 100 Tory MPs voting against him as over 2/3 of Tory MPs would still back him. He would be weakened though and the membership would be furious and likely pick an ERG candidate or hard rightwinger to be Leader of the Opposition if Sunak loses the next general election
  • HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good morning

    Sunak deserves a lot of praise for this deal and to be honest it is not really about popularity but doing the right thing for the country and especially NI

    The dinosaurs in the ERG need to be marginalised anyway

    It is good to have a PM who does detail after the chaos of Johnson and Truss

    It would be a serious mistake for him to run away from a vote again. He looks like an Italian technocrat.
    The reason Sunak sensibly wants to avoid an actual vote is Labour will vote for it but up to 100 ERG and Eurosceptic Conservative MPs and the DUP would likely vote against
    If it is 100 Conservative MPs against the plan, Sunak's in trouble anyway. It's possible, but is it likely?

    And whilst the DUP opposition is a problem for getting the Assembly up and running again, there's a moderate chance that they just don't want to be second fiddle and will say No anyway.
    It's nonsense. If there were that many the deal wouldn't be announced.

    My sense is that rebels will be in the 20s and low 30s at most.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited February 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good morning

    Sunak deserves a lot of praise for this deal and to be honest it is not really about popularity but doing the right thing for the country and especially NI

    The dinosaurs in the ERG need to be marginalised anyway

    It is good to have a PM who does detail after the chaos of Johnson and Truss

    It would be a serious mistake for him to run away from a vote again. He looks like an Italian technocrat.
    The reason Sunak sensibly wants to avoid an actual vote is Labour will vote for it but up to 100 ERG and Eurosceptic Conservative MPs and the DUP would likely vote against
    If it is 100 Conservative MPs against the plan, Sunak's in trouble anyway. It's possible, but is it likely?

    And whilst the DUP opposition is a problem for getting the Assembly up and running again, there's a moderate chance that they just don't want to be second fiddle and will say No anyway.
    It's nonsense. If there were that many the deal wouldn't be announced.

    My sense is that rebels will be in the 20s and low 30s at most.
    How does Sunak know? He doesn't seem to have even informed the likes of Francois and Baker, Rees Mogg and Bill Cash and Jenkin and Redwood and Patel about what is in the Deal
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good morning

    Sunak deserves a lot of praise for this deal and to be honest it is not really about popularity but doing the right thing for the country and especially NI

    The dinosaurs in the ERG need to be marginalised anyway

    It is good to have a PM who does detail after the chaos of Johnson and Truss

    It would be a serious mistake for him to run away from a vote again. He looks like an Italian technocrat.
    The reason Sunak sensibly wants to avoid an actual vote is Labour will vote for it but up to 100 ERG and Eurosceptic Conservative MPs and the DUP would likely vote against
    How on Earth would the government avoid putting a trade deal to a vote?

    There will be a large group of Tory MPs who might begrudgingly vote with the whip on any deal, but would go mad if denied the opportunity to vote for it.

    They’d be nearly as mad as the members, who voted for not-Sunak but got him anyway.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    edited February 2023
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anyway, on a slightly different topic:

    Can anyone tell me why our nuclear generation is down by 50% on six weeks ago? It isn't exactly helping with our gas reserves.

    This page is a pretty good overview. Mostly seems to be routine refuelling, though reactor 8 at Heysham 2 has a turbine vibration issue which is delaying its return to generation.

    https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/power-station/daily-statuses
    Thanks.

    Really clever management to shut down 50% of your reactors for refuelling at a time when demand is likely to be at its highest. But I imagine it's not something you can put off.
    Two more nuclear power stations were shut down permanently in 2022, so I guess the maintenance on each individual remaining reactor becomes that much more noticeable as a share of the whole.

    Apparently EDF have recently announced another 15-month delay for Hinkley Point C - now due to start generating in September 2028.

    EDIT: If the completion date for HPC slips any further then it would seem likely Britain would be reduced to a single operating nuclear power plant for a time - Sizewell B.
  • Mondays can be tough chaps, but KBO.

    KBO.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anyway, on a slightly different topic:

    Can anyone tell me why our nuclear generation is down by 50% on six weeks ago? It isn't exactly helping with our gas reserves.

    This page is a pretty good overview. Mostly seems to be routine refuelling, though reactor 8 at Heysham 2 has a turbine vibration issue which is delaying its return to generation.

    https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/power-station/daily-statuses
    Thanks.

    Really clever management to shut down 50% of your reactors for refuelling at a time when demand is likely to be at its highest. But I imagine it's not something you can put off.
    Two more nuclear power stations were shut down permanently in 2022, so I guess the maintenance on each individual remaining reactor becomes that much more noticeable as a share of the whole.

    Apparently EDF have recently announced another 15-month delay for Hinkley Point C - now due to start generating in September 2028.
    They really do need to get a handful of these Rolls-Royce SMRs running as soon as possible. It’s possibly the best value for money of any energy at the moment, alongside investment in various storage options.
  • DavidL said:

    I hope Humza will reflect that merely to say this is to be “transphobic” in terms of the (unlawful) definition of “transphobia” adopted by the NEC & would potentially open him up to a charge of hate speech under his own, as yet not in force, #HateCrimeBill 🤷‍♀️

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1630110799996809216

    Such a pity that Sturgeon managed to keep Cherry in the Commons when she wanted to come to Edinburgh. She would have been a formidable candidate if she was in the right Parliament.
    All done so Angus Robertson could be assured of an easy entry to Holyrood - and he’s not standing!

    So much for succession planning….
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good morning

    Sunak deserves a lot of praise for this deal and to be honest it is not really about popularity but doing the right thing for the country and especially NI

    The dinosaurs in the ERG need to be marginalised anyway

    It is good to have a PM who does detail after the chaos of Johnson and Truss

    It would be a serious mistake for him to run away from a vote again. He looks like an Italian technocrat.
    The reason Sunak sensibly wants to avoid an actual vote is Labour will vote for it but up to 100 ERG and Eurosceptic Conservative MPs and the DUP would likely vote against
    If it is 100 Conservative MPs against the plan, Sunak's in trouble anyway. It's possible, but is it likely?

    And whilst the DUP opposition is a problem for getting the Assembly up and running again, there's a moderate chance that they just don't want to be second fiddle and will say No anyway.
    It's nonsense. If there were that many the deal wouldn't be announced.

    My sense is that rebels will be in the 20s and low 30s at most.
    How does Sunak know? He doesn't seem to have even informed the likes of Francois and Baker, Rees Mogg and Bill Cash and Jenkin and Redwood and Patel about what is in the Deal
    Whips.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    I hope Humza will reflect that merely to say this is to be “transphobic” in terms of the (unlawful) definition of “transphobia” adopted by the NEC & would potentially open him up to a charge of hate speech under his own, as yet not in force, #HateCrimeBill 🤷‍♀️

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1630110799996809216

    Such a pity that Sturgeon managed to keep Cherry in the Commons when she wanted to come to Edinburgh. She would have been a formidable candidate if she was in the right Parliament.
    Still, she’s backing the formidable Regan..
    A comparative fly buzzing around the horn of a rhinoceros.
  • Mondays can be tough chaps, but KBO.

    KBO.

    Keep Boris Out?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    KBO?

    Keep buggering on. A bit retro.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    DavidL said:

    I hope Humza will reflect that merely to say this is to be “transphobic” in terms of the (unlawful) definition of “transphobia” adopted by the NEC & would potentially open him up to a charge of hate speech under his own, as yet not in force, #HateCrimeBill 🤷‍♀️

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1630110799996809216

    Such a pity that Sturgeon managed to keep Cherry in the Commons when she wanted to come to Edinburgh. She would have been a formidable candidate if she was in the right Parliament.
    All done so Angus Robertson could be assured of an easy entry to Holyrood - and he’s not standing!

    So much for succession planning….
    The lack of succession planning from Sturgeon is quite spectacular, looking on from afar. It does appear that the more senior people in the party were kept away from the key positions at Holyrood, and that little effort was put into grooming any successors. I like Cherry and Forbes, but can’t help thinking the latter is a decade too young for the top job.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good morning

    Sunak deserves a lot of praise for this deal and to be honest it is not really about popularity but doing the right thing for the country and especially NI

    The dinosaurs in the ERG need to be marginalised anyway

    It is good to have a PM who does detail after the chaos of Johnson and Truss

    It would be a serious mistake for him to run away from a vote again. He looks like an Italian technocrat.
    The reason Sunak sensibly wants to avoid an actual vote is Labour will vote for it but up to 100 ERG and Eurosceptic Conservative MPs and the DUP would likely vote against
    If it is 100 Conservative MPs against the plan, Sunak's in trouble anyway. It's possible, but is it likely?

    And whilst the DUP opposition is a problem for getting the Assembly up and running again, there's a moderate chance that they just don't want to be second fiddle and will say No anyway.
    It's nonsense. If there were that many the deal wouldn't be announced.

    My sense is that rebels will be in the 20s and low 30s at most.
    How does Sunak know? He doesn't seem to have even informed the likes of Francois and Baker, Rees Mogg and Bill Cash and Jenkin and Redwood and Patel about what is in the Deal
    Whips.
    Not defeating the ERG in a vote is a bear trap. The meme of the unelected PM bypassing democratic votes will not be good for Sunak.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Mondays can be tough chaps, but KBO.

    KBO.

    Keep batting on, in the hope of not losing a match having enforced the follow-on?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good morning

    Sunak deserves a lot of praise for this deal and to be honest it is not really about popularity but doing the right thing for the country and especially NI

    The dinosaurs in the ERG need to be marginalised anyway

    It is good to have a PM who does detail after the chaos of Johnson and Truss

    It would be a serious mistake for him to run away from a vote again. He looks like an Italian technocrat.
    The reason Sunak sensibly wants to avoid an actual vote is Labour will vote for it but up to 100 ERG and Eurosceptic Conservative MPs and the DUP would likely vote against
    If it is 100 Conservative MPs against the plan, Sunak's in trouble anyway. It's possible, but is it likely?

    And whilst the DUP opposition is a problem for getting the Assembly up and running again, there's a moderate chance that they just don't want to be second fiddle and will say No anyway.
    It's nonsense. If there were that many the deal wouldn't be announced.

    My sense is that rebels will be in the 20s and low 30s at most.
    How does Sunak know? He doesn't seem to have even informed the likes of Francois and Baker, Rees Mogg and Bill Cash and Jenkin and Redwood and Patel about what is in the Deal
    Whips.
    Not defeating the ERG in a vote is a bear trap. The meme of the unelected PM bypassing democratic votes will not be good for Sunak.
    Sunak was elected by Tory MPs, just never by Conservative members and on current polling likely never by the general public either.

    As long as most Tory MPs back the Deal, even if 100 voted against it they would mainly be Boris loyalists and former Truss supporters and ERG backers who have always hated Rishi anyway
  • F1; Drugovich confirmed as stand-in if Stroll can't race.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    HYUFD said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Sunak knows that he could be toppled by this, but that after the last 12 months that would be the death knell of the Tory party and MPs might be reluctant to blow their last chance of normality.

    Credit for using political capital on this normalisation. It doesn't even necessarily need to get the DUP on board immediately, if the practical positive effects seen by traders in NI mean they warm to it, then the DUP might bear some of the political risk once a new assembly poll is held.

    The DUP are up 4% on last year's Stormont election in the latest poll, mainly from squeezing the UUP and TUV
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election
    The gain is mainly from Independents, and given that a lot of the independent vote in the election was for the independent Unionist MLA in North Down, then it is unlikely those extra votes for the DUP will materialise at the actual election. That said, last time the DUP did better at the election then they'd done in the pre-election opinion polls, and the UUP notably underperformed, so those two effects might cancel out.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited February 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good morning

    Sunak deserves a lot of praise for this deal and to be honest it is not really about popularity but doing the right thing for the country and especially NI

    The dinosaurs in the ERG need to be marginalised anyway

    It is good to have a PM who does detail after the chaos of Johnson and Truss

    It would be a serious mistake for him to run away from a vote again. He looks like an Italian technocrat.
    The reason Sunak sensibly wants to avoid an actual vote is Labour will vote for it but up to 100 ERG and Eurosceptic Conservative MPs and the DUP would likely vote against
    If it is 100 Conservative MPs against the plan, Sunak's in trouble anyway. It's possible, but is it likely?

    And whilst the DUP opposition is a problem for getting the Assembly up and running again, there's a moderate chance that they just don't want to be second fiddle and will say No anyway.
    It's nonsense. If there were that many the deal wouldn't be announced.

    My sense is that rebels will be in the 20s and low 30s at most.
    How does Sunak know? He doesn't seem to have even informed the likes of Francois and Baker, Rees Mogg and Bill Cash and Jenkin and Redwood and Patel about what is in the Deal
    Whips.
    Not defeating the ERG in a vote is a bear trap. The meme of the unelected PM bypassing democratic votes will not be good for Sunak.
    Sunak was elected by Tory MPs, just never by Conservative members and on current polling likely never by the general public either.

    As long as most Tory MPs back the Deal, even if 100 voted against it they would mainly be Boris loyalists and former Truss supporters and ERG backers who have always hated Rishi anyway
    There was no mp vote. It was uncontested.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Sunak knows that he could be toppled by this, but that after the last 12 months that would be the death knell of the Tory party and MPs might be reluctant to blow their last chance of normality.

    Credit for using political capital on this normalisation. It doesn't even necessarily need to get the DUP on board immediately, if the practical positive effects seen by traders in NI mean they warm to it, then the DUP might bear some of the political risk once a new assembly poll is held.

    The DUP are up 4% on last year's Stormont election in the latest poll, mainly from squeezing the UUP and TUV
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election
    The gain is mainly from Independents, and given that a lot of the independent vote in the election was for the independent Unionist MLA in North Down, then it is unlikely those extra votes for the DUP will materialise at the actual election. That said, last time the DUP did better at the election then they'd done in the pre-election opinion polls, and the UUP notably underperformed, so those two effects might cancel out.
    To have a chance of amending the GFA to allow the UUP and Alliance to replace the DUP and join SF in the Stormont Executive, London and Dublin really need the DUP to be falling back in the polls and the UUP to be increasing its voteshare.

    That doesn't seem to be happening however
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Initially it'll be weaker no matter what, as there'll be some holdouts no matter what. He has a chance of emerging stronger if opposition is restricted to the core malcontents, though since no outcome is likely to move the public support dial it wont be by much.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,746
    Sunak should put it to a vote and let the headbangers lose. They need to face up to the reality that no one outside of their bubble cares about their concerns. On my estimation they have about 7 more years to make Brexit work and improve their levels of support amongst the working age population otherwise rejoin will come back on to the political agenda in a big way. As every year goes by, Leave/ERG lose a large tranche of their impassioned supporters because they are overwhelmingly old.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited February 2023
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good morning

    Sunak deserves a lot of praise for this deal and to be honest it is not really about popularity but doing the right thing for the country and especially NI

    The dinosaurs in the ERG need to be marginalised anyway

    It is good to have a PM who does detail after the chaos of Johnson and Truss

    It would be a serious mistake for him to run away from a vote again. He looks like an Italian technocrat.
    The reason Sunak sensibly wants to avoid an actual vote is Labour will vote for it but up to 100 ERG and Eurosceptic Conservative MPs and the DUP would likely vote against
    If it is 100 Conservative MPs against the plan, Sunak's in trouble anyway. It's possible, but is it likely?

    And whilst the DUP opposition is a problem for getting the Assembly up and running again, there's a moderate chance that they just don't want to be second fiddle and will say No anyway.
    It's nonsense. If there were that many the deal wouldn't be announced.

    My sense is that rebels will be in the 20s and low 30s at most.
    How does Sunak know? He doesn't seem to have even informed the likes of Francois and Baker, Rees Mogg and Bill Cash and Jenkin and Redwood and Patel about what is in the Deal
    Whips.
    Not defeating the ERG in a vote is a bear trap. The meme of the unelected PM bypassing democratic votes will not be good for Sunak.
    Sunak was elected by Tory MPs, just never by Conservative members and on current polling likely never by the general public either.

    As long as most Tory MPs back the Deal, even if 100 voted against it they would mainly be Boris loyalists and former Truss supporters and ERG backers who have always hated Rishi anyway
    There was no mp vote. It was uncontested.
    197 Tory MPs nominated Sunak last October after Truss resigned, 55% of Conservative MPs in total
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2022_Conservative_Party_leadership_election
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good morning

    Sunak deserves a lot of praise for this deal and to be honest it is not really about popularity but doing the right thing for the country and especially NI

    The dinosaurs in the ERG need to be marginalised anyway

    It is good to have a PM who does detail after the chaos of Johnson and Truss

    It would be a serious mistake for him to run away from a vote again. He looks like an Italian technocrat.
    The reason Sunak sensibly wants to avoid an actual vote is Labour will vote for it but up to 100 ERG and Eurosceptic Conservative MPs and the DUP would likely vote against
    If it is 100 Conservative MPs against the plan, Sunak's in trouble anyway. It's possible, but is it likely?

    And whilst the DUP opposition is a problem for getting the Assembly up and running again, there's a moderate chance that they just don't want to be second fiddle and will say No anyway.
    'Moderate' chance?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Sunak knows that he could be toppled by this, but that after the last 12 months that would be the death knell of the Tory party and MPs might be reluctant to blow their last chance of normality.

    Credit for using political capital on this normalisation. It doesn't even necessarily need to get the DUP on board immediately, if the practical positive effects seen by traders in NI mean they warm to it, then the DUP might bear some of the political risk once a new assembly poll is held.

    The DUP are up 4% on last year's Stormont election in the latest poll, mainly from squeezing the UUP and TUV
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election
    The gain is mainly from Independents, and given that a lot of the independent vote in the election was for the independent Unionist MLA in North Down, then it is unlikely those extra votes for the DUP will materialise at the actual election. That said, last time the DUP did better at the election then they'd done in the pre-election opinion polls, and the UUP notably underperformed, so those two effects might cancel out.
    To have a chance of amending the GFA to allow the UUP and Alliance to replace the DUP and join SF in the Stormont Executive, London and Dublin really need the DUP to be falling back in the polls and the UUP to be increasing its voteshare.

    That doesn't seem to be happening however
    There is no desire to amend the GFA. To say that would be opening a can of worms is an understatement.

    There are two ways of resolving the impasse:

    1. Convince the DUP to participate in power-sharing - which itself can be achieved in a number of ways.

    2. Have the voters decide to bypass the DUP by voting for the UUP or Alliance in sufficient numbers
  • A few important things to look out for in the NI Protocol deal as it is announced today. A thread:

    https://twitter.com/antonspisak/status/1630107177963646976
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good morning

    Sunak deserves a lot of praise for this deal and to be honest it is not really about popularity but doing the right thing for the country and especially NI

    The dinosaurs in the ERG need to be marginalised anyway

    It is good to have a PM who does detail after the chaos of Johnson and Truss

    It would be a serious mistake for him to run away from a vote again. He looks like an Italian technocrat.
    The reason Sunak sensibly wants to avoid an actual vote is Labour will vote for it but up to 100 ERG and Eurosceptic Conservative MPs and the DUP would likely vote against
    If it is 100 Conservative MPs against the plan, Sunak's in trouble anyway. It's possible, but is it likely?

    And whilst the DUP opposition is a problem for getting the Assembly up and running again, there's a moderate chance that they just don't want to be second fiddle and will say No anyway.
    It's nonsense. If there were that many the deal wouldn't be announced.

    My sense is that rebels will be in the 20s and low 30s at most.
    How does Sunak know? He doesn't seem to have even informed the likes of Francois and Baker, Rees Mogg and Bill Cash and Jenkin and Redwood and Patel about what is in the Deal
    Whips.
    Not defeating the ERG in a vote is a bear trap. The meme of the unelected PM bypassing democratic votes will not be good for Sunak.
    Sunak was elected by Tory MPs, just never by Conservative members and on current polling likely never by the general public either.

    As long as most Tory MPs back the Deal, even if 100 voted against it they would mainly be Boris loyalists and former Truss supporters and ERG backers who have always hated Rishi anyway
    There was no mp vote. It was uncontested.
    192 Tory MPs nominated Sunak, over 50% of Conservative MPs
    So no vote. It was uncontested. Technocratic.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good morning

    Sunak deserves a lot of praise for this deal and to be honest it is not really about popularity but doing the right thing for the country and especially NI

    The dinosaurs in the ERG need to be marginalised anyway

    It is good to have a PM who does detail after the chaos of Johnson and Truss

    It would be a serious mistake for him to run away from a vote again. He looks like an Italian technocrat.
    The reason Sunak sensibly wants to avoid an actual vote is Labour will vote for it but up to 100 ERG and Eurosceptic Conservative MPs and the DUP would likely vote against
    If it is 100 Conservative MPs against the plan, Sunak's in trouble anyway. It's possible, but is it likely?

    And whilst the DUP opposition is a problem for getting the Assembly up and running again, there's a moderate chance that they just don't want to be second fiddle and will say No anyway.
    It's nonsense. If there were that many the deal wouldn't be announced.

    My sense is that rebels will be in the 20s and low 30s at most.
    How does Sunak know? He doesn't seem to have even informed the likes of Francois and Baker, Rees Mogg and Bill Cash and Jenkin and Redwood and Patel about what is in the Deal
    Whips.
    Not defeating the ERG in a vote is a bear trap. The meme of the unelected PM bypassing democratic votes will not be good for Sunak.
    Sunak was elected by Tory MPs, just never by Conservative members and on current polling likely never by the general public either.

    As long as most Tory MPs back the Deal, even if 100 voted against it they would mainly be Boris loyalists and former Truss supporters and ERG backers who have always hated Rishi anyway
    There was no mp vote. It was uncontested.
    192 Tory MPs nominated Sunak, over 50% of Conservative MPs
    So no vote. It was uncontested. Technocratic.
    As I said 55% of Tory MPs nominated Sunak, so he already had won the required majority of Tory MPs from endorsements alone
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited February 2023

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Sunak knows that he could be toppled by this, but that after the last 12 months that would be the death knell of the Tory party and MPs might be reluctant to blow their last chance of normality.

    Credit for using political capital on this normalisation. It doesn't even necessarily need to get the DUP on board immediately, if the practical positive effects seen by traders in NI mean they warm to it, then the DUP might bear some of the political risk once a new assembly poll is held.

    The DUP are up 4% on last year's Stormont election in the latest poll, mainly from squeezing the UUP and TUV
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election
    The gain is mainly from Independents, and given that a lot of the independent vote in the election was for the independent Unionist MLA in North Down, then it is unlikely those extra votes for the DUP will materialise at the actual election. That said, last time the DUP did better at the election then they'd done in the pre-election opinion polls, and the UUP notably underperformed, so those two effects might cancel out.
    To have a chance of amending the GFA to allow the UUP and Alliance to replace the DUP and join SF in the Stormont Executive, London and Dublin really need the DUP to be falling back in the polls and the UUP to be increasing its voteshare.

    That doesn't seem to be happening however
    There is no desire to amend the GFA. To say that would be opening a can of worms is an understatement.

    There are two ways of resolving the impasse:

    1. Convince the DUP to participate in power-sharing - which itself can be achieved in a number of ways.

    2. Have the voters decide to bypass the DUP by voting for the UUP or Alliance in sufficient numbers
    And neither of those 2 seem to be happening at present.

    Indeed on the last 2 NI polls the DUP voteshare is at least equal to or more than that for the UUP and Alliance combined
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092

    A few important things to look out for in the NI Protocol deal as it is announced today. A thread:

    https://twitter.com/antonspisak/status/1630107177963646976

    It stands or falls on number 7: Disputes/CJEU: Does the CJEU keep direct jurisdiction under the Protocol?

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good morning

    Sunak deserves a lot of praise for this deal and to be honest it is not really about popularity but doing the right thing for the country and especially NI

    The dinosaurs in the ERG need to be marginalised anyway

    It is good to have a PM who does detail after the chaos of Johnson and Truss

    It would be a serious mistake for him to run away from a vote again. He looks like an Italian technocrat.
    The reason Sunak sensibly wants to avoid an actual vote is Labour will vote for it but up to 100 ERG and Eurosceptic Conservative MPs and the DUP would likely vote against
    If it is 100 Conservative MPs against the plan, Sunak's in trouble anyway. It's possible, but is it likely?

    And whilst the DUP opposition is a problem for getting the Assembly up and running again, there's a moderate chance that they just don't want to be second fiddle and will say No anyway.
    It's nonsense. If there were that many the deal wouldn't be announced.

    My sense is that rebels will be in the 20s and low 30s at most.
    How does Sunak know? He doesn't seem to have even informed the likes of Francois and Baker, Rees Mogg and Bill Cash and Jenkin and Redwood and Patel about what is in the Deal
    Whips.
    Not defeating the ERG in a vote is a bear trap. The meme of the unelected PM bypassing democratic votes will not be good for Sunak.
    Sunak was elected by Tory MPs, just never by Conservative members and on current polling likely never by the general public either.

    As long as most Tory MPs back the Deal, even if 100 voted against it they would mainly be Boris loyalists and former Truss supporters and ERG backers who have always hated Rishi anyway
    There was no mp vote. It was uncontested.
    192 Tory MPs nominated Sunak, over 50% of Conservative MPs
    So no vote. It was uncontested. Technocratic.
    As I said 55% of Tory MPs nominated Sunak, so he already had won the required majority of Tory MPs from endorsements alone
    So no election, it was uncontested. The only leadership election Sunak entered, he lost to Truss. He’s now running away from a vote he would actually win.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good morning

    Sunak deserves a lot of praise for this deal and to be honest it is not really about popularity but doing the right thing for the country and especially NI

    The dinosaurs in the ERG need to be marginalised anyway

    It is good to have a PM who does detail after the chaos of Johnson and Truss

    It would be a serious mistake for him to run away from a vote again. He looks like an Italian technocrat.
    The reason Sunak sensibly wants to avoid an actual vote is Labour will vote for it but up to 100 ERG and Eurosceptic Conservative MPs and the DUP would likely vote against
    If it is 100 Conservative MPs against the plan, Sunak's in trouble anyway. It's possible, but is it likely?

    And whilst the DUP opposition is a problem for getting the Assembly up and running again, there's a moderate chance that they just don't want to be second fiddle and will say No anyway.
    It's nonsense. If there were that many the deal wouldn't be announced.

    My sense is that rebels will be in the 20s and low 30s at most.
    How does Sunak know? He doesn't seem to have even informed the likes of Francois and Baker, Rees Mogg and Bill Cash and Jenkin and Redwood and Patel about what is in the Deal
    Whips.
    Not defeating the ERG in a vote is a bear trap. The meme of the unelected PM bypassing democratic votes will not be good for Sunak.
    Sunak was elected by Tory MPs, just never by Conservative members and on current polling likely never by the general public either.

    As long as most Tory MPs back the Deal, even if 100 voted against it they would mainly be Boris loyalists and former Truss supporters and ERG backers who have always hated Rishi anyway
    There was no mp vote. It was uncontested.
    192 Tory MPs nominated Sunak, over 50% of Conservative MPs
    So no vote. It was uncontested. Technocratic.
    No vote, but being pedantic is not an uncontested election still referred to as an election, and the winner to be elected?
  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good morning

    Sunak deserves a lot of praise for this deal and to be honest it is not really about popularity but doing the right thing for the country and especially NI

    The dinosaurs in the ERG need to be marginalised anyway

    It is good to have a PM who does detail after the chaos of Johnson and Truss

    It would be a serious mistake for him to run away from a vote again. He looks like an Italian technocrat.
    The reason Sunak sensibly wants to avoid an actual vote is Labour will vote for it but up to 100 ERG and Eurosceptic Conservative MPs and the DUP would likely vote against
    If it is 100 Conservative MPs against the plan, Sunak's in trouble anyway. It's possible, but is it likely?

    And whilst the DUP opposition is a problem for getting the Assembly up and running again, there's a moderate chance that they just don't want to be second fiddle and will say No anyway.
    'Moderate' chance?
    What can I say? I'm an optimist.

    Meanwhile the energy bill news (cost of energy falling but bills rising in April because government support is falling faster) probably has more relevance to the political scene than any of this.
  • HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good morning

    Sunak deserves a lot of praise for this deal and to be honest it is not really about popularity but doing the right thing for the country and especially NI

    The dinosaurs in the ERG need to be marginalised anyway

    It is good to have a PM who does detail after the chaos of Johnson and Truss

    It would be a serious mistake for him to run away from a vote again. He looks like an Italian technocrat.
    The reason Sunak sensibly wants to avoid an actual vote is Labour will vote for it but up to 100 ERG and Eurosceptic Conservative MPs and the DUP would likely vote against
    Not an excuse to avoid a vote

    Time to call out the dissidents
This discussion has been closed.