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How first past the post helped the SNP at GE2019 – politicalbetting.com

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  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    edited February 2023

    If pressed, I have some sympathy for Sunak. The DUP cannot accept any realistically negotiable outcome (because of losing votes to the TUV) & nor can some Tory MPs because they're purists or opportunists. He has to do a deal without them.

    https://twitter.com/davidgauke/status/1627638508587298816

    My sympathy in this case lasts only as far as Sunak recognised this himself. If he's delaying the deal because he still harbours a forlorn hope of winning their agreement then he's a naive fool who deserves all the trouble he's about to face.
  • HYUFD said:

    Erly said:

    Leon said:

    Further thought

    Spectator type Unionist Tories are (genuinely) scared of Kate Forbes, partly because she is photogenic, clever, eloquent, Cambridge educated etc

    But they are also scared of her because, well, she is a Tory. Church going, quite traditional, and economically truly conservative. A sane Liz Truss in tartan, a Scottish Thatcher, who will run Scotland rather well, increasing the appeal of Indy

    But what frightens British Tories might also frighten a lot of Scots, in the opposite direction. We keep being told Scotland is to the left of England. If Forbes becomes FM, that hypothesis will be severely tested

    The Tories should be grateful. It was the SNP that put Thatcher in office.

    Anyone who thinks Scotland is to the left of England should visit Scotland and educate themselves. They could start by comparing the two capital cities.

    Scotland is more conservative than most of Wales beyond the English border certainly and Edinburgh is more conservative than most big English cities (though Glasgow isn't).

    England as a whole is more conservative than Scotland. Ireland is more conservative though than England, Scotland or Wales, both Northern Ireland and the Republic
    I agree that Scotland has a strong conservative streak. Small c though. And a moral streak as well. Which is why they won't be voting for the corrupt and immoral Conservative and Screwtheunionist Party.
  • algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Further thought

    Spectator type Unionist Tories are (genuinely) scared of Kate Forbes, partly because she is photogenic, clever, eloquent, Cambridge educated etc

    But they are also scared of her because, well, she is a Tory. Church going, quite traditional, and economically truly conservative. A sane Liz Truss in tartan, a Scottish Thatcher, who will run Scotland rather well, increasing the appeal of Indy

    But what frightens British Tories might also frighten a lot of Scots, in the opposite direction. We keep being told Scotland is to the left of England. If Forbes becomes FM, that hypothesis will be severely tested

    I think this expresses well why if Kate Forbes gets FM we are in for interesting times.

    The whole point of an independence movement is that it's about viable statehood - a plan to be a member of UN, have a defence policy, run a country and all that, for ALL its people.

    The image of the SNP is centre left, quite woke, Labourish, tax and spend, very public sector, state management. Much much more anti Tory than anti Labour.

    Forbes would shift the image (regardless of reality), I suspect, back to the SNP as a One Nation Scotland independence movement, for a wider range of people, regardless of their general political position.

    I also think there is a 50% chance she would come seriously unstuck fairly soon. She will not be short of enemies to say the least.

    Biggest issue would be the Greens. If they withdraw support, could we be in for an early election?
    Why? It would take the Greens voting with a united opposition to bring the government down. With the supposedly most controversial railroaded through by the woke SNP policy on gender, we still saw cross party support.

    So if the Tories etc are such a rabble that they can't be whipped to vote against *that* what makes you think they could be to vote against any other issue?
  • Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Further thought

    Spectator type Unionist Tories are (genuinely) scared of Kate Forbes, partly because she is photogenic, clever, eloquent, Cambridge educated etc

    But they are also scared of her because, well, she is a Tory. Church going, quite traditional, and economically truly conservative. A sane Liz Truss in tartan, a Scottish Thatcher, who will run Scotland rather well, increasing the appeal of Indy

    But what frightens British Tories might also frighten a lot of Scots, in the opposite direction. We keep being told Scotland is to the left of England. If Forbes becomes FM, that hypothesis will be severely tested

    I think this expresses well why if Kate Forbes gets FM we are in for interesting times.

    The whole point of an independence movement is that it's about viable statehood - a plan to be a member of UN, have a defence policy, run a country and all that, for ALL its people.

    The image of the SNP is centre left, quite woke, Labourish, tax and spend, very public sector, state management. Much much more anti Tory than anti Labour.

    Forbes would shift the image (regardless of reality), I suspect, back to the SNP as a One Nation Scotland independence movement, for a wider range of people, regardless of their general political position.

    I also think there is a 50% chance she would come seriously unstuck fairly soon. She will not be short of enemies to say the least.

    Hmm. In Scotland Labour is widely perceived as notoriously anti-SNP far, far more than it is anti-Tory. Slab feels its birthright has been stolen and it shows daily.

    Also - re Scotland being tto the left of England: the Tories haven't won there since the 1950s if I recall rightly. That's a big difference, to put it mildly.
    Certainly Scotland is a generally more anti-Tory than England, but I think there is a lot of social conservatism in Scotland (more than England, I'm not sure but I believe the Social Attitudes surveys don't tend to detect huge differences). My anecdotal experience is that the social conservatism in Scotland might not necessarily inform voting intention. I know some real social conservatives and they've voted, by turns, Labour, SNP, Conservative and Lib Dem despite having views on things like gay marriage and abortion that would fit right in with Forbes's church.
  • Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Further thought

    Spectator type Unionist Tories are (genuinely) scared of Kate Forbes, partly because she is photogenic, clever, eloquent, Cambridge educated etc

    But they are also scared of her because, well, she is a Tory. Church going, quite traditional, and economically truly conservative. A sane Liz Truss in tartan, a Scottish Thatcher, who will run Scotland rather well, increasing the appeal of Indy

    But what frightens British Tories might also frighten a lot of Scots, in the opposite direction. We keep being told Scotland is to the left of England. If Forbes becomes FM, that hypothesis will be severely tested

    I think this expresses well why if Kate Forbes gets FM we are in for interesting times.

    The whole point of an independence movement is that it's about viable statehood - a plan to be a member of UN, have a defence policy, run a country and all that, for ALL its people.

    The image of the SNP is centre left, quite woke, Labourish, tax and spend, very public sector, state management. Much much more anti Tory than anti Labour.

    Forbes would shift the image (regardless of reality), I suspect, back to the SNP as a One Nation Scotland independence movement, for a wider range of people, regardless of their general political position.

    I also think there is a 50% chance she would come seriously unstuck fairly soon. She will not be short of enemies to say the least.

    Hmm. In Scotland Labour is widely perceived as notoriously anti-SNP far, far more than it is anti-Tory. Slab feels its birthright has been stolen and it shows daily.

    Also - re Scotland being tto the left of England: the Tories haven't won there since the 1950s if I recall rightly. That's a big difference, to put it mildly.
    Yes but it can be argued that a country where 50%ish are obsessed with nationalist identity politics makes it very much more right wing than the much more inclusively minded England and Wales. The fact that they also want free lunches of socialism does not necessarily mean that they are not more right wing in many other regards.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Kate Forbes will surely split the independence vote in two.

    Why?
    Because the SNP support is at least strongly anti-Tory and left wing. That was what Sturgeon did compared to Salmond, going after Labour voters.
    I would put it as SNP support vastly liberal minded and liking left of centre economics. A move from that is a gift to Labour.

    And it’s quite clear from PB alone Forbes is a shift from that, as PBers Conservative minded and right of centre economically minded absolutely love her.
  • Unpopular said:

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Further thought

    Spectator type Unionist Tories are (genuinely) scared of Kate Forbes, partly because she is photogenic, clever, eloquent, Cambridge educated etc

    But they are also scared of her because, well, she is a Tory. Church going, quite traditional, and economically truly conservative. A sane Liz Truss in tartan, a Scottish Thatcher, who will run Scotland rather well, increasing the appeal of Indy

    But what frightens British Tories might also frighten a lot of Scots, in the opposite direction. We keep being told Scotland is to the left of England. If Forbes becomes FM, that hypothesis will be severely tested

    I think this expresses well why if Kate Forbes gets FM we are in for interesting times.

    The whole point of an independence movement is that it's about viable statehood - a plan to be a member of UN, have a defence policy, run a country and all that, for ALL its people.

    The image of the SNP is centre left, quite woke, Labourish, tax and spend, very public sector, state management. Much much more anti Tory than anti Labour.

    Forbes would shift the image (regardless of reality), I suspect, back to the SNP as a One Nation Scotland independence movement, for a wider range of people, regardless of their general political position.

    I also think there is a 50% chance she would come seriously unstuck fairly soon. She will not be short of enemies to say the least.

    Hmm. In Scotland Labour is widely perceived as notoriously anti-SNP far, far more than it is anti-Tory. Slab feels its birthright has been stolen and it shows daily.

    Also - re Scotland being tto the left of England: the Tories haven't won there since the 1950s if I recall rightly. That's a big difference, to put it mildly.
    Certainly Scotland is a generally more anti-Tory than England, but I think there is a lot of social conservatism in Scotland (more than England, I'm not sure but I believe the Social Attitudes surveys don't tend to detect huge differences). My anecdotal experience is that the social conservatism in Scotland might not necessarily inform voting intention. I know some real social conservatives and they've voted, by turns, Labour, SNP, Conservative and Lib Dem despite having views on things like gay marriage and abortion that would fit right in with Forbes's church.
    If you are a social conservative why would you vote for the corruption of the modern Tory party? It represents all of the things you are against...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1627627879369478145

    Leader ratings currently suggest Lab lead of 3-6 points at a general election, altho Sunak’s rating prob still has a way to fall

    Chauncey Gardiner for PM
    Growth in the spring then.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005

    If pressed, I have some sympathy for Sunak. The DUP cannot accept any realistically negotiable outcome (because of losing votes to the TUV) & nor can some Tory MPs because they're purists or opportunists. He has to do a deal without them.

    https://twitter.com/davidgauke/status/1627638508587298816

    Do these Tory brexiteers not realise that the Brexit 'dream' is in danger of dying if they don't accept some sort of compromise? We're likely to have a Labour government in less than two years. So what do they think is going to happen. Starmer will do a deal similar to Sunak or even take the UK back into the customs union.

    Perhaps they feel the Brexit dream has already died. They just want to fight the EU as they have nothing left to lose.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    If pressed, I have some sympathy for Sunak. The DUP cannot accept any realistically negotiable outcome (because of losing votes to the TUV) & nor can some Tory MPs because they're purists or opportunists. He has to do a deal without them.

    https://twitter.com/davidgauke/status/1627638508587298816

    Do these Tory brexiteers not realise that the Brexit 'dream' is in danger of dying if they don't accept some sort of compromise? We're likely to have a Labour government in less than two years. So what do they think is going to happen. Starmer will do a deal similar to Sunak or even take the UK back into the customs union.

    Perhaps they feel the Brexit dream has already died. They just want to fight the EU as they have nothing left to lose.
    Worth remembering that the MPs trying to sort this out are Baker, Heaton-Harris and Cleverley. All ERG.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    edited February 2023

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1627627879369478145

    Leader ratings currently suggest Lab lead of 3-6 points at a general election, altho Sunak’s rating prob still has a way to fall

    Chauncey Gardiner for PM
    Growth in the spring then.
    I'm curious. You claim to be one of those young people - yet your depth of knowledge, often going back long before you were born, and sometimes pretty obscure, is often surprising.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    Kate Forbes will surely split the independence vote in two.

    Labour will be praying Forbes gets the gig, if anyone in Labour is actually not atheist.
    Yes, the CP does not want Forbes or Cherry I would suggest. Therefore the LP does.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited February 2023
    Stocky said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1627627879369478145

    Leader ratings currently suggest Lab lead of 3-6 points at a general election, altho Sunak’s rating prob still has a way to fall

    Chauncey Gardiner for PM
    Growth in the spring then.
    I'm curious. You claim to be one of those young people - yet your depth of knowledge, often going back long before you were born, and sometimes pretty obscure, is often surprising.
    I went to art school. And I have access to a thing called the internet. Every time someone recommended a film I watched it, and every time I watch a film I think about it. And the bit in the film (sellers last film) when he says that on talk show, and audience applause is best moment in the film. I can go further in obscure fact It’s based on a Polish book.

    Anything 60s and 70s I know lots of obscure, but probably not some obvious things, but you will find everyone knows more than me about the eighties and nineties. I’m only just getting started on the eighties, and most of it is rubbish.
  • So, SNP leader.

    Strikes me that Forbes is probably the best choice for the SNP. Has a new, fresh-face factor and can triangulate on recent woes. Likely to be more centrist. Could disillusion some, but importantly is fresh enough that she could re-energise support elsewhere. The church stuff will get quoted at her often. She will need to be savvy about how she handles that.

    Regan will be divisive and Yousaf will be too continuity Sturgeon and has too much baggage.

    FWIW I don’t think any of them will have an easy ride and all 3 will probably preside over a period of retrenchment in support, the extent of that will be the question.
This discussion has been closed.