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The SNP election – the time table – politicalbetting.com

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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,656
    Leon said:

    Westminster voting intention: 🔴 LAB: 48% (+1) 🔵 CON: 25 (-1) 🟠 LDEM: 10% (NC) 🟡 SNP: 3% (-1) ⚪️ REFUK: 7% (-1) 🟢 GRN: 5% (+1) via Omnisis, 15th-16th Feb 2023, changes w/9th-10th Feb 2023

    Probably best if you don't look at the Scottish subsample for that one.
    Not possible: they don’t publish the geographical breaks.
    You believe that if you want to.

    https://omnisis.co.uk/poll-results/vi-22-results-17-02-2023/
    Wow. That has Labour AHEAD of the SNP?!

    I know this is just a sub sample and we are not allowed to think about sub samples so generally I don’t - but is that quite unusual in a Scottish sub sample? The SNP down to 2nd?

    The first actual Scottish poll following the End of the Sturgeon will be fascinating
    Massive margin of error and some of the other geographic subsamples raise eyebrows, but still. A bit of fun as much as the subsamples that put the SNP on >60%
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,522

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Listening to Sammy Wilson this morning on R4 I'm not sure the selective, non-routine checks between NI & GB is going to swing it for the DUP.

    I sometimes get the impression that Sammy & Co want that thing everyone is supposed not to want - a 'hard border on the island of Ireland'.
    Of course they do. That was the whole point of Brexit for them, to expect a barrier with the Republic to stave off the threat of cross-border unity.

    So they're desperate for there to be no deal on the protocol so that the Republic is forced into the position of erecting a border to protect the single market, or of de facto leaving the single market to remain in a common economic zone with Northern Ireland.
    But didn't think it through. The DUP and Brexit - bad intentions badly executed.
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    Cherry nailing her colours to the Rowling mast:

    Great to meet with CEO Isabelle & her deputy Sue at @beirasplace earlier this week with Kate Harris from @ALLIANCELGB. A fantastic new service providing support, advocacy & information for women survivors of sexual violence in Edinburgh & Lothians.

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1626548038276722688?s=20
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    BREAKING: New Scotland poll from @YouGov / @ScotVoting puts Labour just two points behind SNP in General Election voting intention. SNP down 16 points on 2019, Labour up 8 points
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,522
    Leon said:

    Westminster voting intention: 🔴 LAB: 48% (+1) 🔵 CON: 25 (-1) 🟠 LDEM: 10% (NC) 🟡 SNP: 3% (-1) ⚪️ REFUK: 7% (-1) 🟢 GRN: 5% (+1) via Omnisis, 15th-16th Feb 2023, changes w/9th-10th Feb 2023

    Probably best if you don't look at the Scottish subsample for that one.
    Not possible: they don’t publish the geographical breaks.
    You believe that if you want to.

    https://omnisis.co.uk/poll-results/vi-22-results-17-02-2023/
    Wow. That has Labour AHEAD of the SNP?!

    I know this is just a sub sample and we are not allowed to think about sub samples so generally I don’t - but is that quite unusual in a Scottish sub sample? The SNP down to 2nd?

    The first actual Scottish poll following the End of the Sturgeon will be fascinating
    How are you feeling about living the rest of your life under a Labour government?

    Mbop?
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    The poll carried out between February 10 and 15 - the day Nicola Sturgeon resigned - put the SNP on 29 per cent, compared to their 2019 General Election result on 45.0 per cent.

    Labour are second on 27 per cent, up on their 18.6 per cent support in 2019.

    We are now on the verge of Labour returning to 2010 support in Scotland. A landslide is now within reach
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    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    Unpopular said:

    https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1626536759109603328

    But because Starmer stayed on the inside, he could reform Labour. I quote the German poet, Hans Magnus Enzenberger's praise for the “heroes of the retreat”. The communist, Apartheid and Francoist politicians, who knew the game was up and took their countries to a better future

    Labour has only ever been changed because people have been prepared to serve with people they did not agree with, in order to deliver change later on. Starmer has the same ability and drive to do this as Attlee, Wilson and Blair.

    I agree with this, and the article in the tweet. The decision to cut and run or to stay and fight is a tricky one and I suspect the 'correct' answer depends on the circumstances. In the circumstances, Starmer made the right decision.
    For his career, sure.
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    And the Conservatives have plummeted to 12 per cent, compared to 25.1 per cent when Boris Johnson stormed to victory just over three years ago.

    Labour to have 30+ seats, Tories pushed out of Scotland completely
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    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    Is the 3 in your name because you spam across three comments what you should put in one?
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,656

    The poll carried out between February 10 and 15 - the day Nicola Sturgeon resigned - put the SNP on 29 per cent, compared to their 2019 General Election result on 45.0 per cent.

    Labour are second on 27 per cent, up on their 18.6 per cent support in 2019.

    We are now on the verge of Labour returning to 2010 support in Scotland. A landslide is now within reach

    Are the Lib Dems up a lot too? Greens? Alba?
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,530
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Westminster voting intention: 🔴 LAB: 48% (+1) 🔵 CON: 25 (-1) 🟠 LDEM: 10% (NC) 🟡 SNP: 3% (-1) ⚪️ REFUK: 7% (-1) 🟢 GRN: 5% (+1) via Omnisis, 15th-16th Feb 2023, changes w/9th-10th Feb 2023

    Probably best if you don't look at the Scottish subsample for that one.
    Not possible: they don’t publish the geographical breaks.
    You believe that if you want to.

    https://omnisis.co.uk/poll-results/vi-22-results-17-02-2023/
    Wow. That has Labour AHEAD of the SNP?!

    I know this is just a sub sample and we are not allowed to think about sub samples so generally I don’t - but is that quite unusual in a Scottish sub sample? The SNP down to 2nd?

    The first actual Scottish poll following the End of the Sturgeon will be fascinating
    How are you feeling about living the rest of your life under a Labour government?

    Mbop?
    You saying he's only got a decade left? Bit harsh, he's not in that bad shape...
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    Driver said:

    Unpopular said:

    https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1626536759109603328

    But because Starmer stayed on the inside, he could reform Labour. I quote the German poet, Hans Magnus Enzenberger's praise for the “heroes of the retreat”. The communist, Apartheid and Francoist politicians, who knew the game was up and took their countries to a better future

    Labour has only ever been changed because people have been prepared to serve with people they did not agree with, in order to deliver change later on. Starmer has the same ability and drive to do this as Attlee, Wilson and Blair.

    I agree with this, and the article in the tweet. The decision to cut and run or to stay and fight is a tricky one and I suspect the 'correct' answer depends on the circumstances. In the circumstances, Starmer made the right decision.
    For his career, sure.
    True, but I don't necessarily see a problem with that. The transformation of the Labour party under him into a party that increasingly looks like a Government in waiting is pretty remarkable. You've got to be in it to win it.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,656

    And the Conservatives have plummeted to 12 per cent, compared to 25.1 per cent when Boris Johnson stormed to victory just over three years ago.

    Labour to have 30+ seats, Tories pushed out of Scotland completely

    There's about twenty percentage points unaccounted for in that poll. If they'd all gone to Labour you'd be right, but split all ways and it's much harder to tell how the seats will work out.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,828
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Westminster voting intention: 🔴 LAB: 48% (+1) 🔵 CON: 25 (-1) 🟠 LDEM: 10% (NC) 🟡 SNP: 3% (-1) ⚪️ REFUK: 7% (-1) 🟢 GRN: 5% (+1) via Omnisis, 15th-16th Feb 2023, changes w/9th-10th Feb 2023

    Probably best if you don't look at the Scottish subsample for that one.
    Not possible: they don’t publish the geographical breaks.
    You believe that if you want to.

    https://omnisis.co.uk/poll-results/vi-22-results-17-02-2023/
    Wow. That has Labour AHEAD of the SNP?!

    I know this is just a sub sample and we are not allowed to think about sub samples so generally I don’t - but is that quite unusual in a Scottish sub sample? The SNP down to 2nd?

    The first actual Scottish poll following the End of the Sturgeon will be fascinating
    How are you feeling about living the rest of your life under a Labour government?

    Mbop?
    Relatively mmboppy, actually

    He’s standing in front of TWO UNION JACKS and he sounds more right wing than half the Tories



    That should worry you. The fact I am beginning to warm to him
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,592
    edited February 2023
    That's a gloriously appropriate typo (I assume a typo?)

    They clearly don't know when they've had enough.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,737
    Leon said:

    Westminster voting intention: 🔴 LAB: 48% (+1) 🔵 CON: 25 (-1) 🟠 LDEM: 10% (NC) 🟡 SNP: 3% (-1) ⚪️ REFUK: 7% (-1) 🟢 GRN: 5% (+1) via Omnisis, 15th-16th Feb 2023, changes w/9th-10th Feb 2023

    Probably best if you don't look at the Scottish subsample for that one.
    Not possible: they don’t publish the geographical breaks.
    You believe that if you want to.

    https://omnisis.co.uk/poll-results/vi-22-results-17-02-2023/
    Wow. That has Labour AHEAD of the SNP?!

    I know this is just a sub sample and we are not allowed to think about sub samples so generally I don’t - but is that quite unusual in a Scottish sub sample? The SNP down to 2nd?

    The first actual Scottish poll following the End of the Sturgeon will be fascinating
    Scottish election results have been distorted by the obvious fact of there being only one major nationalist party and two (+ depending how you count) unionist ones. A bit like the Tory v Labour and SDP in 1983. FPTP doesn't allow for a fair fight in this circumstance.

    The prospect of an equal fight in Scotland between moderate unionist Labour and post Sturgeon SNP with everyone else holding towels and gumshields is an enticing one and could enliven an otherwise predictable election. I am sure it won't be Forbes v SKS, shame because it would be a classic.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,592

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Westminster voting intention: 🔴 LAB: 48% (+1) 🔵 CON: 25 (-1) 🟠 LDEM: 10% (NC) 🟡 SNP: 3% (-1) ⚪️ REFUK: 7% (-1) 🟢 GRN: 5% (+1) via Omnisis, 15th-16th Feb 2023, changes w/9th-10th Feb 2023

    Probably best if you don't look at the Scottish subsample for that one.
    Not possible: they don’t publish the geographical breaks.
    You believe that if you want to.

    https://omnisis.co.uk/poll-results/vi-22-results-17-02-2023/
    Wow. That has Labour AHEAD of the SNP?!

    I know this is just a sub sample and we are not allowed to think about sub samples so generally I don’t - but is that quite unusual in a Scottish sub sample? The SNP down to 2nd?

    The first actual Scottish poll following the End of the Sturgeon will be fascinating
    How are you feeling about living the rest of your life under a Labour government?

    Mbop?
    You saying he's only got a decade left? Bit harsh, he's not in that bad shape...
    Rapid reduction in life expectancy under Labour? :open_mouth:
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,828

    The poll carried out between February 10 and 15 - the day Nicola Sturgeon resigned - put the SNP on 29 per cent, compared to their 2019 General Election result on 45.0 per cent.

    Labour are second on 27 per cent, up on their 18.6 per cent support in 2019.

    We are now on the verge of Labour returning to 2010 support in Scotland. A landslide is now within reach

    The SNP are fucked. Indy is over til the 2040s

    How about that “de facto” referendum now?

    HAHAHAHAHHAH
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    Scottish Independence Voting Intention:

    NO: 48% (+2)
    YES: 40% (=)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    NO: 55% (+2)
    YES: 45% (-2)

    Via @YouGov, On 10-15 February,
    Changes w/ 23-26 January.

    What has happened, is Anas and Keir have made Labour into the only pro-Union party with any chance of defeating the SNP. They also form an anti-Tory Government.

    Therefore with these polling results, it is clear why Labour is now onto a winner in Scotland, we can thank Boris Johnson for tanking the Tories in Scotland.

    Labour majority of over 100 is now possible, I am not predicting it yet.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,245
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,173

    Scottish Independence Voting Intention:

    NO: 48% (+2)
    YES: 40% (=)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    NO: 55% (+2)
    YES: 45% (-2)

    Via @YouGov, On 10-15 February,
    Changes w/ 23-26 January.

    What has happened, is Anas and Keir have made Labour into the only pro-Union party with any chance of defeating the SNP. They also form an anti-Tory Government.

    Therefore with these polling results, it is clear why Labour is now onto a winner in Scotland, we can thank Boris Johnson for tanking the Tories in Scotland.

    Labour majority of over 100 is now possible, I am not predicting it yet.

    Forgetting something, Horse. Labour are now a bunch of Brexiters.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,108
    An interesting exemption from the EU. Carmakers making fewer than 1,000 cars a year, will be exempt from the 2035 engine ban. Fantastic news for a lot of small British carmakers.

    https://www.pistonheads.com/news/general-pistonheads/eu-exempts-small-carmakers-from-combustion-ban/46848
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    edited February 2023

    And the Conservatives have plummeted to 12 per cent, compared to 25.1 per cent when Boris Johnson stormed to victory just over three years ago.

    Labour to have 30+ seats, Tories pushed out of Scotland completely

    There's about twenty percentage points unaccounted for in that poll. If they'd all gone to Labour you'd be right, but split all ways and it's much harder to tell how the seats will work out.
    It's 16, and they will be Greens, LDs, Reform, Alba, I suppose. The poll is startlingly bad for the SNP though just moderately good for Labour. Maybe the new leader will get a honeymoon, but it certainly look worth Labour trying much harder in Scotland than seemed sensible a year or two ago.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,828
    Carnyx said:

    Scottish Independence Voting Intention:

    NO: 48% (+2)
    YES: 40% (=)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    NO: 55% (+2)
    YES: 45% (-2)

    Via @YouGov, On 10-15 February,
    Changes w/ 23-26 January.

    What has happened, is Anas and Keir have made Labour into the only pro-Union party with any chance of defeating the SNP. They also form an anti-Tory Government.

    Therefore with these polling results, it is clear why Labour is now onto a winner in Scotland, we can thank Boris Johnson for tanking the Tories in Scotland.

    Labour majority of over 100 is now possible, I am not predicting it yet.

    Forgetting something, Horse. Labour are now a bunch of Brexiters.
    It’s nearly ten years since the last referendum. By now that “natural and enormous majority for YES amongst young Scots” should be giving you ten-fifteen point leads. Instead you are ten points behind. You’ve gone nowhere

    Independence ain’t happening and it’s time to fold up the saltires. Sorry
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    Unpopular said:

    Driver said:

    Unpopular said:

    https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1626536759109603328

    But because Starmer stayed on the inside, he could reform Labour. I quote the German poet, Hans Magnus Enzenberger's praise for the “heroes of the retreat”. The communist, Apartheid and Francoist politicians, who knew the game was up and took their countries to a better future

    Labour has only ever been changed because people have been prepared to serve with people they did not agree with, in order to deliver change later on. Starmer has the same ability and drive to do this as Attlee, Wilson and Blair.

    I agree with this, and the article in the tweet. The decision to cut and run or to stay and fight is a tricky one and I suspect the 'correct' answer depends on the circumstances. In the circumstances, Starmer made the right decision.
    For his career, sure.
    True, but I don't necessarily see a problem with that. The transformation of the Labour party under him into a party that increasingly looks like a Government in waiting is pretty remarkable. You've got to be in it to win it.
    Indeed. I feel immensely relaxed about a Starmer government compared with a Corbyn government.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,828

    And the Conservatives have plummeted to 12 per cent, compared to 25.1 per cent when Boris Johnson stormed to victory just over three years ago.

    Labour to have 30+ seats, Tories pushed out of Scotland completely

    There's about twenty percentage points unaccounted for in that poll. If they'd all gone to Labour you'd be right, but split all ways and it's much harder to tell how the seats will work out.
    This is BEFORE the inevitable and rancorous split in the SNP between the Indy-now fundamentalists and the “wait for decades” civic nationalists
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,245
    Leon said:

    The poll carried out between February 10 and 15 - the day Nicola Sturgeon resigned - put the SNP on 29 per cent, compared to their 2019 General Election result on 45.0 per cent.

    Labour are second on 27 per cent, up on their 18.6 per cent support in 2019.

    We are now on the verge of Labour returning to 2010 support in Scotland. A landslide is now within reach

    The SNP are fucked. Indy is over til the 2040s ...
    I think that will be determined by the next Labour government.
    Polls haven't shown any similarly large decline in support for independence, so all those likely new won seats could disappear within a single electoral cycle if they don't tread carefully.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,110
    edited February 2023
    Literal and figurative submarine leaks continue apace.

    https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/could-australia-jump-the-aukus-submarine-queue-20230214-p5ckgt

    It looks like HMS Agincourt and HMS Agamemnon are going to become ADV Shane Warne and ADV Leslie Patterson. This makes a lot of sense as it relieves a chunk of MoD budgetary pressure by cutting the hideously expensive Astute fleet, doesn’t take Virginia build slots and gets Australia in the SSN game by 2030-ish.
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    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    Carnyx said:

    Scottish Independence Voting Intention:

    NO: 48% (+2)
    YES: 40% (=)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    NO: 55% (+2)
    YES: 45% (-2)

    Via @YouGov, On 10-15 February,
    Changes w/ 23-26 January.

    What has happened, is Anas and Keir have made Labour into the only pro-Union party with any chance of defeating the SNP. They also form an anti-Tory Government.

    Therefore with these polling results, it is clear why Labour is now onto a winner in Scotland, we can thank Boris Johnson for tanking the Tories in Scotland.

    Labour majority of over 100 is now possible, I am not predicting it yet.

    Forgetting something, Horse. Labour are now a bunch of Brexiters.
    No such thing any more, since Brexit is reality.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,656

    And the Conservatives have plummeted to 12 per cent, compared to 25.1 per cent when Boris Johnson stormed to victory just over three years ago.

    Labour to have 30+ seats, Tories pushed out of Scotland completely

    There's about twenty percentage points unaccounted for in that poll. If they'd all gone to Labour you'd be right, but split all ways and it's much harder to tell how the seats will work out.
    It's 16, and they will be Greens, LDs, Reform, Alba, I suppose. The poll is startlingly bad for the SNP though just moderately good for Labour. Maybe the new leader will get a honeymoon, but it certainly look worth Labour trying much harder in Scotland than seemed sensible a year or two ago.
    My twenty was based on the changes not the shares. Would be more if looking at the shares.

    From Horses various posts I have,
    SNP 29%
    Lab 27%
    Con 12%
    Others ~32% (subject to rounding)

    That's a big increase in voting share for at least one other party.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,919
    Driver said:

    Unpopular said:

    https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1626536759109603328

    But because Starmer stayed on the inside, he could reform Labour. I quote the German poet, Hans Magnus Enzenberger's praise for the “heroes of the retreat”. The communist, Apartheid and Francoist politicians, who knew the game was up and took their countries to a better future

    Labour has only ever been changed because people have been prepared to serve with people they did not agree with, in order to deliver change later on. Starmer has the same ability and drive to do this as Attlee, Wilson and Blair.

    I agree with this, and the article in the tweet. The decision to cut and run or to stay and fight is a tricky one and I suspect the 'correct' answer depends on the circumstances. In the circumstances, Starmer made the right decision.
    For his career, sure.
    Do you try and reform an institution or build another?

    Consider the staggering journey of the US Democratic Party.
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    And the Conservatives have plummeted to 12 per cent, compared to 25.1 per cent when Boris Johnson stormed to victory just over three years ago.

    Labour to have 30+ seats, Tories pushed out of Scotland completely

    There's about twenty percentage points unaccounted for in that poll. If they'd all gone to Labour you'd be right, but split all ways and it's much harder to tell how the seats will work out.
    It's 16, and they will be Greens, LDs, Reform, Alba, I suppose. The poll is startlingly bad for the SNP though just moderately good for Labour. Maybe the new leader will get a honeymoon, but it certainly look worth Labour trying much harder in Scotland than seemed sensible a year or two ago.
    One poll, early days and all that. But usually the new leader bounce starts with "Thank God X is going".

    Have the SNP really screwed up here?
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,034

    The poll carried out between February 10 and 15 - the day Nicola Sturgeon resigned - put the SNP on 29 per cent, compared to their 2019 General Election result on 45.0 per cent.

    Labour are second on 27 per cent, up on their 18.6 per cent support in 2019.

    We are now on the verge of Labour returning to 2010 support in Scotland. A landslide is now within reach

    So this all seems to chime with my anecdotal experience mentioned up thread. People abandoning the Tories in droves north of the border, and starting to fall in behind Labour. A tactical unwind not dissimilar to what happened to the Lib Dems in 2015.

    Whether that’s good or bad for the SNP is on one of those FPTP knife edges I think. If the movement is moderate they could easily come through the middle and mop up several Tory held seats and firm up in places where conservatives were second without being too troubled by labour elsewhere. If it’s very large then they could suddenly lose a load to Labour.
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    NEW THREAD

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    And the Conservatives have plummeted to 12 per cent, compared to 25.1 per cent when Boris Johnson stormed to victory just over three years ago.

    Labour to have 30+ seats, Tories pushed out of Scotland completely

    There's about twenty percentage points unaccounted for in that poll. If they'd all gone to Labour you'd be right, but split all ways and it's much harder to tell how the seats will work out.
    It's 16, and they will be Greens, LDs, Reform, Alba, I suppose. The poll is startlingly bad for the SNP though just moderately good for Labour. Maybe the new leader will get a honeymoon, but it certainly look worth Labour trying much harder in Scotland than seemed sensible a year or two ago.
    My twenty was based on the changes not the shares. Would be more if looking at the shares.

    From Horses various posts I have,
    SNP 29%
    Lab 27%
    Con 12%
    Others ~32% (subject to rounding)

    That's a big increase in voting share for at least one other party.
    ALBA!

    Not really feeling a SLab is back! vibe tbh. 27% is where they were in 2017 under Kezia & Jezza, and only 3% over the 2015 Murphy miracle.
This discussion has been closed.