I know this is just a sub sample and we are not allowed to think about sub samples so generally I don’t - but is that quite unusual in a Scottish sub sample? The SNP down to 2nd?
The first actual Scottish poll following the End of the Sturgeon will be fascinating
Massive margin of error and some of the other geographic subsamples raise eyebrows, but still. A bit of fun as much as the subsamples that put the SNP on >60%
Listening to Sammy Wilson this morning on R4 I'm not sure the selective, non-routine checks between NI & GB is going to swing it for the DUP.
I sometimes get the impression that Sammy & Co want that thing everyone is supposed not to want - a 'hard border on the island of Ireland'.
Of course they do. That was the whole point of Brexit for them, to expect a barrier with the Republic to stave off the threat of cross-border unity.
So they're desperate for there to be no deal on the protocol so that the Republic is forced into the position of erecting a border to protect the single market, or of de facto leaving the single market to remain in a common economic zone with Northern Ireland.
But didn't think it through. The DUP and Brexit - bad intentions badly executed.
Great to meet with CEO Isabelle & her deputy Sue at @beirasplace earlier this week with Kate Harris from @ALLIANCELGB. A fantastic new service providing support, advocacy & information for women survivors of sexual violence in Edinburgh & Lothians.
BREAKING: New Scotland poll from @YouGov / @ScotVoting puts Labour just two points behind SNP in General Election voting intention. SNP down 16 points on 2019, Labour up 8 points
I know this is just a sub sample and we are not allowed to think about sub samples so generally I don’t - but is that quite unusual in a Scottish sub sample? The SNP down to 2nd?
The first actual Scottish poll following the End of the Sturgeon will be fascinating
How are you feeling about living the rest of your life under a Labour government?
The poll carried out between February 10 and 15 - the day Nicola Sturgeon resigned - put the SNP on 29 per cent, compared to their 2019 General Election result on 45.0 per cent.
Labour are second on 27 per cent, up on their 18.6 per cent support in 2019.
We are now on the verge of Labour returning to 2010 support in Scotland. A landslide is now within reach
But because Starmer stayed on the inside, he could reform Labour. I quote the German poet, Hans Magnus Enzenberger's praise for the “heroes of the retreat”. The communist, Apartheid and Francoist politicians, who knew the game was up and took their countries to a better future
Labour has only ever been changed because people have been prepared to serve with people they did not agree with, in order to deliver change later on. Starmer has the same ability and drive to do this as Attlee, Wilson and Blair.
I agree with this, and the article in the tweet. The decision to cut and run or to stay and fight is a tricky one and I suspect the 'correct' answer depends on the circumstances. In the circumstances, Starmer made the right decision.
The poll carried out between February 10 and 15 - the day Nicola Sturgeon resigned - put the SNP on 29 per cent, compared to their 2019 General Election result on 45.0 per cent.
Labour are second on 27 per cent, up on their 18.6 per cent support in 2019.
We are now on the verge of Labour returning to 2010 support in Scotland. A landslide is now within reach
I know this is just a sub sample and we are not allowed to think about sub samples so generally I don’t - but is that quite unusual in a Scottish sub sample? The SNP down to 2nd?
The first actual Scottish poll following the End of the Sturgeon will be fascinating
How are you feeling about living the rest of your life under a Labour government?
Mbop?
You saying he's only got a decade left? Bit harsh, he's not in that bad shape...
But because Starmer stayed on the inside, he could reform Labour. I quote the German poet, Hans Magnus Enzenberger's praise for the “heroes of the retreat”. The communist, Apartheid and Francoist politicians, who knew the game was up and took their countries to a better future
Labour has only ever been changed because people have been prepared to serve with people they did not agree with, in order to deliver change later on. Starmer has the same ability and drive to do this as Attlee, Wilson and Blair.
I agree with this, and the article in the tweet. The decision to cut and run or to stay and fight is a tricky one and I suspect the 'correct' answer depends on the circumstances. In the circumstances, Starmer made the right decision.
For his career, sure.
True, but I don't necessarily see a problem with that. The transformation of the Labour party under him into a party that increasingly looks like a Government in waiting is pretty remarkable. You've got to be in it to win it.
And the Conservatives have plummeted to 12 per cent, compared to 25.1 per cent when Boris Johnson stormed to victory just over three years ago.
Labour to have 30+ seats, Tories pushed out of Scotland completely
There's about twenty percentage points unaccounted for in that poll. If they'd all gone to Labour you'd be right, but split all ways and it's much harder to tell how the seats will work out.
I know this is just a sub sample and we are not allowed to think about sub samples so generally I don’t - but is that quite unusual in a Scottish sub sample? The SNP down to 2nd?
The first actual Scottish poll following the End of the Sturgeon will be fascinating
How are you feeling about living the rest of your life under a Labour government?
Mbop?
Relatively mmboppy, actually
He’s standing in front of TWO UNION JACKS and he sounds more right wing than half the Tories
That should worry you. The fact I am beginning to warm to him
I know this is just a sub sample and we are not allowed to think about sub samples so generally I don’t - but is that quite unusual in a Scottish sub sample? The SNP down to 2nd?
The first actual Scottish poll following the End of the Sturgeon will be fascinating
Scottish election results have been distorted by the obvious fact of there being only one major nationalist party and two (+ depending how you count) unionist ones. A bit like the Tory v Labour and SDP in 1983. FPTP doesn't allow for a fair fight in this circumstance.
The prospect of an equal fight in Scotland between moderate unionist Labour and post Sturgeon SNP with everyone else holding towels and gumshields is an enticing one and could enliven an otherwise predictable election. I am sure it won't be Forbes v SKS, shame because it would be a classic.
I know this is just a sub sample and we are not allowed to think about sub samples so generally I don’t - but is that quite unusual in a Scottish sub sample? The SNP down to 2nd?
The first actual Scottish poll following the End of the Sturgeon will be fascinating
How are you feeling about living the rest of your life under a Labour government?
Mbop?
You saying he's only got a decade left? Bit harsh, he's not in that bad shape...
The poll carried out between February 10 and 15 - the day Nicola Sturgeon resigned - put the SNP on 29 per cent, compared to their 2019 General Election result on 45.0 per cent.
Labour are second on 27 per cent, up on their 18.6 per cent support in 2019.
We are now on the verge of Labour returning to 2010 support in Scotland. A landslide is now within reach
Via @YouGov, On 10-15 February, Changes w/ 23-26 January.
What has happened, is Anas and Keir have made Labour into the only pro-Union party with any chance of defeating the SNP. They also form an anti-Tory Government.
Therefore with these polling results, it is clear why Labour is now onto a winner in Scotland, we can thank Boris Johnson for tanking the Tories in Scotland.
Labour majority of over 100 is now possible, I am not predicting it yet.
Via @YouGov, On 10-15 February, Changes w/ 23-26 January.
What has happened, is Anas and Keir have made Labour into the only pro-Union party with any chance of defeating the SNP. They also form an anti-Tory Government.
Therefore with these polling results, it is clear why Labour is now onto a winner in Scotland, we can thank Boris Johnson for tanking the Tories in Scotland.
Labour majority of over 100 is now possible, I am not predicting it yet.
Forgetting something, Horse. Labour are now a bunch of Brexiters.
An interesting exemption from the EU. Carmakers making fewer than 1,000 cars a year, will be exempt from the 2035 engine ban. Fantastic news for a lot of small British carmakers.
And the Conservatives have plummeted to 12 per cent, compared to 25.1 per cent when Boris Johnson stormed to victory just over three years ago.
Labour to have 30+ seats, Tories pushed out of Scotland completely
There's about twenty percentage points unaccounted for in that poll. If they'd all gone to Labour you'd be right, but split all ways and it's much harder to tell how the seats will work out.
It's 16, and they will be Greens, LDs, Reform, Alba, I suppose. The poll is startlingly bad for the SNP though just moderately good for Labour. Maybe the new leader will get a honeymoon, but it certainly look worth Labour trying much harder in Scotland than seemed sensible a year or two ago.
Via @YouGov, On 10-15 February, Changes w/ 23-26 January.
What has happened, is Anas and Keir have made Labour into the only pro-Union party with any chance of defeating the SNP. They also form an anti-Tory Government.
Therefore with these polling results, it is clear why Labour is now onto a winner in Scotland, we can thank Boris Johnson for tanking the Tories in Scotland.
Labour majority of over 100 is now possible, I am not predicting it yet.
Forgetting something, Horse. Labour are now a bunch of Brexiters.
It’s nearly ten years since the last referendum. By now that “natural and enormous majority for YES amongst young Scots” should be giving you ten-fifteen point leads. Instead you are ten points behind. You’ve gone nowhere
Independence ain’t happening and it’s time to fold up the saltires. Sorry
But because Starmer stayed on the inside, he could reform Labour. I quote the German poet, Hans Magnus Enzenberger's praise for the “heroes of the retreat”. The communist, Apartheid and Francoist politicians, who knew the game was up and took their countries to a better future
Labour has only ever been changed because people have been prepared to serve with people they did not agree with, in order to deliver change later on. Starmer has the same ability and drive to do this as Attlee, Wilson and Blair.
I agree with this, and the article in the tweet. The decision to cut and run or to stay and fight is a tricky one and I suspect the 'correct' answer depends on the circumstances. In the circumstances, Starmer made the right decision.
For his career, sure.
True, but I don't necessarily see a problem with that. The transformation of the Labour party under him into a party that increasingly looks like a Government in waiting is pretty remarkable. You've got to be in it to win it.
Indeed. I feel immensely relaxed about a Starmer government compared with a Corbyn government.
And the Conservatives have plummeted to 12 per cent, compared to 25.1 per cent when Boris Johnson stormed to victory just over three years ago.
Labour to have 30+ seats, Tories pushed out of Scotland completely
There's about twenty percentage points unaccounted for in that poll. If they'd all gone to Labour you'd be right, but split all ways and it's much harder to tell how the seats will work out.
This is BEFORE the inevitable and rancorous split in the SNP between the Indy-now fundamentalists and the “wait for decades” civic nationalists
The poll carried out between February 10 and 15 - the day Nicola Sturgeon resigned - put the SNP on 29 per cent, compared to their 2019 General Election result on 45.0 per cent.
Labour are second on 27 per cent, up on their 18.6 per cent support in 2019.
We are now on the verge of Labour returning to 2010 support in Scotland. A landslide is now within reach
The SNP are fucked. Indy is over til the 2040s ...
I think that will be determined by the next Labour government. Polls haven't shown any similarly large decline in support for independence, so all those likely new won seats could disappear within a single electoral cycle if they don't tread carefully.
It looks like HMS Agincourt and HMS Agamemnon are going to become ADV Shane Warne and ADV Leslie Patterson. This makes a lot of sense as it relieves a chunk of MoD budgetary pressure by cutting the hideously expensive Astute fleet, doesn’t take Virginia build slots and gets Australia in the SSN game by 2030-ish.
Via @YouGov, On 10-15 February, Changes w/ 23-26 January.
What has happened, is Anas and Keir have made Labour into the only pro-Union party with any chance of defeating the SNP. They also form an anti-Tory Government.
Therefore with these polling results, it is clear why Labour is now onto a winner in Scotland, we can thank Boris Johnson for tanking the Tories in Scotland.
Labour majority of over 100 is now possible, I am not predicting it yet.
Forgetting something, Horse. Labour are now a bunch of Brexiters.
And the Conservatives have plummeted to 12 per cent, compared to 25.1 per cent when Boris Johnson stormed to victory just over three years ago.
Labour to have 30+ seats, Tories pushed out of Scotland completely
There's about twenty percentage points unaccounted for in that poll. If they'd all gone to Labour you'd be right, but split all ways and it's much harder to tell how the seats will work out.
It's 16, and they will be Greens, LDs, Reform, Alba, I suppose. The poll is startlingly bad for the SNP though just moderately good for Labour. Maybe the new leader will get a honeymoon, but it certainly look worth Labour trying much harder in Scotland than seemed sensible a year or two ago.
My twenty was based on the changes not the shares. Would be more if looking at the shares.
From Horses various posts I have, SNP 29% Lab 27% Con 12% Others ~32% (subject to rounding)
That's a big increase in voting share for at least one other party.
But because Starmer stayed on the inside, he could reform Labour. I quote the German poet, Hans Magnus Enzenberger's praise for the “heroes of the retreat”. The communist, Apartheid and Francoist politicians, who knew the game was up and took their countries to a better future
Labour has only ever been changed because people have been prepared to serve with people they did not agree with, in order to deliver change later on. Starmer has the same ability and drive to do this as Attlee, Wilson and Blair.
I agree with this, and the article in the tweet. The decision to cut and run or to stay and fight is a tricky one and I suspect the 'correct' answer depends on the circumstances. In the circumstances, Starmer made the right decision.
For his career, sure.
Do you try and reform an institution or build another?
Consider the staggering journey of the US Democratic Party.
And the Conservatives have plummeted to 12 per cent, compared to 25.1 per cent when Boris Johnson stormed to victory just over three years ago.
Labour to have 30+ seats, Tories pushed out of Scotland completely
There's about twenty percentage points unaccounted for in that poll. If they'd all gone to Labour you'd be right, but split all ways and it's much harder to tell how the seats will work out.
It's 16, and they will be Greens, LDs, Reform, Alba, I suppose. The poll is startlingly bad for the SNP though just moderately good for Labour. Maybe the new leader will get a honeymoon, but it certainly look worth Labour trying much harder in Scotland than seemed sensible a year or two ago.
One poll, early days and all that. But usually the new leader bounce starts with "Thank God X is going".
The poll carried out between February 10 and 15 - the day Nicola Sturgeon resigned - put the SNP on 29 per cent, compared to their 2019 General Election result on 45.0 per cent.
Labour are second on 27 per cent, up on their 18.6 per cent support in 2019.
We are now on the verge of Labour returning to 2010 support in Scotland. A landslide is now within reach
So this all seems to chime with my anecdotal experience mentioned up thread. People abandoning the Tories in droves north of the border, and starting to fall in behind Labour. A tactical unwind not dissimilar to what happened to the Lib Dems in 2015.
Whether that’s good or bad for the SNP is on one of those FPTP knife edges I think. If the movement is moderate they could easily come through the middle and mop up several Tory held seats and firm up in places where conservatives were second without being too troubled by labour elsewhere. If it’s very large then they could suddenly lose a load to Labour.
And the Conservatives have plummeted to 12 per cent, compared to 25.1 per cent when Boris Johnson stormed to victory just over three years ago.
Labour to have 30+ seats, Tories pushed out of Scotland completely
There's about twenty percentage points unaccounted for in that poll. If they'd all gone to Labour you'd be right, but split all ways and it's much harder to tell how the seats will work out.
It's 16, and they will be Greens, LDs, Reform, Alba, I suppose. The poll is startlingly bad for the SNP though just moderately good for Labour. Maybe the new leader will get a honeymoon, but it certainly look worth Labour trying much harder in Scotland than seemed sensible a year or two ago.
My twenty was based on the changes not the shares. Would be more if looking at the shares.
From Horses various posts I have, SNP 29% Lab 27% Con 12% Others ~32% (subject to rounding)
That's a big increase in voting share for at least one other party.
ALBA!
Not really feeling a SLab is back! vibe tbh. 27% is where they were in 2017 under Kezia & Jezza, and only 3% over the 2015 Murphy miracle.
Comments
Great to meet with CEO Isabelle & her deputy Sue at @beirasplace earlier this week with Kate Harris from @ALLIANCELGB. A fantastic new service providing support, advocacy & information for women survivors of sexual violence in Edinburgh & Lothians.
https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1626548038276722688?s=20
Mbop?
Labour are second on 27 per cent, up on their 18.6 per cent support in 2019.
We are now on the verge of Labour returning to 2010 support in Scotland. A landslide is now within reach
Labour to have 30+ seats, Tories pushed out of Scotland completely
He’s standing in front of TWO UNION JACKS and he sounds more right wing than half the Tories
That should worry you. The fact I am beginning to warm to him
They clearly don't know when they've had enough.
The prospect of an equal fight in Scotland between moderate unionist Labour and post Sturgeon SNP with everyone else holding towels and gumshields is an enticing one and could enliven an otherwise predictable election. I am sure it won't be Forbes v SKS, shame because it would be a classic.
How about that “de facto” referendum now?
HAHAHAHAHHAH
NO: 48% (+2)
YES: 40% (=)
Undecideds Excluded:
NO: 55% (+2)
YES: 45% (-2)
Via @YouGov, On 10-15 February,
Changes w/ 23-26 January.
What has happened, is Anas and Keir have made Labour into the only pro-Union party with any chance of defeating the SNP. They also form an anti-Tory Government.
Therefore with these polling results, it is clear why Labour is now onto a winner in Scotland, we can thank Boris Johnson for tanking the Tories in Scotland.
Labour majority of over 100 is now possible, I am not predicting it yet.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/feb/17/taliban-ban-contraception-western-conspiracy
https://www.pistonheads.com/news/general-pistonheads/eu-exempts-small-carmakers-from-combustion-ban/46848
Independence ain’t happening and it’s time to fold up the saltires. Sorry
Polls haven't shown any similarly large decline in support for independence, so all those likely new won seats could disappear within a single electoral cycle if they don't tread carefully.
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/could-australia-jump-the-aukus-submarine-queue-20230214-p5ckgt
It looks like HMS Agincourt and HMS Agamemnon are going to become ADV Shane Warne and ADV Leslie Patterson. This makes a lot of sense as it relieves a chunk of MoD budgetary pressure by cutting the hideously expensive Astute fleet, doesn’t take Virginia build slots and gets Australia in the SSN game by 2030-ish.
From Horses various posts I have,
SNP 29%
Lab 27%
Con 12%
Others ~32% (subject to rounding)
That's a big increase in voting share for at least one other party.
Consider the staggering journey of the US Democratic Party.
Have the SNP really screwed up here?
Whether that’s good or bad for the SNP is on one of those FPTP knife edges I think. If the movement is moderate they could easily come through the middle and mop up several Tory held seats and firm up in places where conservatives were second without being too troubled by labour elsewhere. If it’s very large then they could suddenly lose a load to Labour.
NEW THREAD
Not really feeling a SLab is back! vibe tbh. 27% is where they were in 2017 under Kezia & Jezza, and only 3% over the 2015 Murphy miracle.