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A LAB majority now a 62% chance in the GE betting – politicalbetting.com
A LAB majority now a 62% chance in the GE betting – politicalbetting.com
A combination of the ongoing 20%+ LAB poll leads combined with what is happening in parliamentary and local government by-elections have continued to reinforce the betting market view about what will happen at the general election.
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1 There's no clear successor. It would likely be another full leadership election with a members' vote. It would be bitter and would expose Tory divisions less than 18 months before a General Election. It would paralyse Government (again) gifting Labour obvious lines about Tory priorities.
2 There's no guarantee a better leader will be put in place and every chance someone even more electorally toxic might get in (JRM being one such). Whoever wins wouldn't have to resign after an election loss because they could argue they'd not been in long enough to turn things round... which would mean a Labour Government with a divided opposition led divisively. That's an even worse situation than now.
3 And what's the upside? Do any Tory MPs seriously think they can win next time? Unless there's a considedable chance changing leaders will enable that to happen (can't see that myself), how is the downside worth the risk? I would think most Tory MPs will be expecting some sort of swingback (historically not unlikely), a limited defeat (given the electoral arithmetic there's still a fair chance of a hung parliament, so a potentially earlier GE), and a chance for necessary reform and regrouping under an currently lower-profile new leader (similar to Cameron post-2005). That's a normal historical pattern. The alternative is an abnormal wipeout.
Chances of Rishi fighting GE2024/2025? 95% in my book. The 5% is for a black swan.
Chances of there being an odd number of general elections in the 2020s? Well that's slightly higher, and that's what I'd be hoping for were I a Tory MP. The best way of getting there is to sit tight with Rishi to give a relative unknown the chance to rebuild after the upcoming loss.
(Nerdy trivia question: which was the last decade with an odd number of General Elections?).
Anybody claiming otherwise has no insight into the Conservative Party.
Trump team turns over additional classified records and laptop to federal prosecutors
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/10/politics/trump-classified-records-laptop/index.html
https://www.texastribune.org/2023/02/09/guns-domestic-abuse-second-amendment/
Advocates for domestic violence victims were stunned by the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruling, which continued a string of court decisions citing the Second Amendment to erase gun restrictions…
… In 2021 alone, 127 women in Texas were murdered by their male intimate partners with firearms, according to the Texas Council on Family Violence. Across the country, an average of 70 women each month are killed by their partners with guns. Research has shown that a domestic violence victim’s risk of death is five times higher when their abuser has access to a gun...
I agree with Mike but I think most of you already know my views on what is likely to happen
They are in for a shellacking.
Mr. Roy, the Conservatives would bite your hand off to only be decimated at the next election.
Feeling quietly confident of my Lab majority bet (tipped by someone here... perhaps Ishmael Z).
My view is that Labour have a chance of winning, but to do so have to win an almost unprecedented number of Tory seats. It won’t take much to miss out on a few. A narrow Labour win to the Tories hanging on feels like the range we will end up.
Labour is operating as the natural party of government and the conservatives increasingly like to position themselves as an opposition.
Since the next election is a change election, how will that play out?
Most of us who have seen sea-changes occur in our lifetimes (1979 and 1997) know one when we see one. This is a sea-change. A series of catastrophic external events and unforced errors have rendered the Conservatives implausible as a governing party. Just about everyone in the country knows it.
I would suggest that you are the one guilty of the blind faith. Clinging on desperately to recency bias and failing to read the writing on the wall.
It's over. The 'real' question is just how far they will sink. MRP at 142 seats is likely about right. 100-150, but no more than that with the possibility of a sub-100 showing.
'Unprecedented' can be a silly and meaningless word. Something is only unprecedented until it isn't. We have lived through an 'unprecedented' 4 years and we're heading for an 'unprecedented' result.
xx
But I hope you’re right.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/human-beings-cant-change-sex-were-not-clownfish-its-fixed-at-birth-v58zffkvv
In fact, apart from Todd Murphy the Aussie performance has been pretty dreadful.
https://twitter.com/HeleneBismarck/status/1624127830538739712
And not remotely surprising….
I wonder, apropos of the debate about a possible Labour majority, whether this would be a better result for the Tories in the long term than NOM.
If, after large poll leads and a truly dreadful Government, the Labour Party cannot win a majority at the next GE, might they not conclude, egged on by the LDs and Greens, that PR is the way to go?
If that happens what price the Conservatives then?
And yes. The Tories would also benefit from being forced to reflect on just how badly they threw away a golden opportunity - indeed, a series of golden opportunities - to genuinely change this country for the better and leave things, amazingly, in a worse state than in 2010.
Spoiler: it doesn't makes much sense.
If you haven't read Hersch's essay, here you can find it. To me it reads as a great Hollywood script, more than an accurate account of events. Below I explain why.….
Summary of all: if the CIA had hired me to run this operation, I would have come up with a much cheaper plan that would have raised much less suspicion.
https://twitter.com/Mauro_Gilli/status/1624021500662611970
At least Head can bowl spin as well!
Certainly a Lab majority requires a swing that we haven't seen in a very long time, but all the indications are that is what is going to happen.
PR would be good for the country provided the right method is chosen that allows voters rather than parties to order the list.
One major advantage is that in PR systems old parties can split or die, and new ones form more easily. Our current system is fossilised to the benefit of the cliques running the two major parties.
Not entirely plausible from the government that gave us Trussonomics and the KamiKwasi budget, and has many members who voted for it, and even still believe it, but I think that's the way they will go. It is a Thatcherite policy now.
This extraordinary video played out dozens, hundreds of times throughout NW #Syria this week — the @SyriaCivilDefe deserve every accolade out there.
https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1624210423829434369
This *is* fun!
Cricinfo: If Australia had conjured a worst-case scenario for how the opening game of this series could go, reckon it wouldn't be far from this. Hard to argue with that.
But if they pick the wrong side, play the wrong shots and bowl the wrong lengths, well, they've only themselves to blame frankly. Only Murphy, and perhaps to a lesser extent Labuschagne and Smith come out with any credit at all.
Its just another variation of the thatcher live action role play, after one that Truss tried and failed at.
I genuinely don't know if it will work or not, but it could. If Labour come out with spectacular spending promises, as is their natural instinct, then it may work.
My frustration with the tories is primarily that they are not tackling other underlying causes of our malaise, like various forms of over regulation. Also they are stuffing the mouths of certain groups (pensioners, the over 65s) with gold, at the expense of other groups.
Changing the leader now would make sod all difference. Indeed if anything Sunak polls better than the Conservative Party overall now
But with a highest first class score of 34, I don't think we should judge him too harshly.
And even then LAB will probably win.
I'd overlooked the "which decade is 1970 in" issue, although if you say 2010 was in the 2000s then the answer is the 2010s!
I meant to define "decades" as the 1950s, the 1990s etc, so I was thinking the 1940s.
Yes, I'm an irritatingly pedantic Maths teacher (who still managed to overlook the 0 issue) but even I's struggle to argue 1 was not an odd number!
Watching the evening session this afternoon, was supposed to be my excuse to go to the pub early. Guess now I’ll have to wait for the rugby.
Looking forward to the Ashes now though!
She may well have been talking bollocks, of course. It sounded like bollocks at the time, but to be honest I just drifted amiably through my maths lessons trying not to get into trouble, so I didn't really care either way.
Still got a B, and I've no idea how.
It is, again, destined for failure because they won’t get any English teams, almost certainly no German teams. PSG also unlikely, and lesser teams in Spain and Italy will be deeply wary
Which doesn’t leave much
What European league football needs is consolidation. Benelux should be a league, perhaps with France. Germany should incorporate Austria and Switzerland, and the Nordic countries? Italy would be in an Adriatic league with Croatia, Slovenia etc
A British Isles league would be UK plus Eire. Maybe a western Med league of Spain and Portugal. Etc
Then you could regularly see Rangers v Man United. Benfica v Barca. PSG v Ajax
However, I think the trauma of the Seven Weeks of Liz Truss, and in particular the Twenty-Two Days period from the mini-budget on 23rd September to the sacking of Kwasi Kwarteng on 14th October, was so intense and overwhelming, that many Tory MPs are now resigned to inevitable defeat at the next general election.
It might be that, as the moment approaches this sense of resignation will dispel. The prospect of a Labour government lording it over them will become more immediate and galvanising. We've seen how that has affected some posters on pb.com. I just don't see it.
I don't think it is possible to over-emphasise how traumatic the Truss Premiership will have been. Things happened under her leadership at such a pace, and with such reckless incompetence on the part of Cabinet, that were truly shocking. Even those critical of Truss before her appointment could not have imagined that it would have become such a disaster so quickly. The idea of ditching Sunak opens up the risk of repeating the Truss experience with another leader. Who can say whether any of the putative replacements will go off the rails in a similar way? The trauma-induced response that Tory MPs will feel at the possibility will surely see them recoil from it.
Sunak and Hunt, by contrast, are safe. They represent a world in which you can be confident in the survival of the pension industry, where the government will be able to fund its spending, and Sterling will be convertible to other currencies at broadly predictable rates. Electoral oblivion will be preferable than running the risk of repeating the trauma.
As others have said, there’s little road to a Lab majority that doesn’t go through Scotland. Thankfully, it does look like the wheels are starting to wobble on the nationalist wagon.
Remember, a Blair style swing gives Starmer a majority of 1.
That's the scale of his challenge and why a Labour majority remains a bit of a long shot.
Hitchin North (Hertfordshire) council by-election result:
LAB: 65.8% (+12.7)
CON: 17.4% (-9.5)
GRN: 13.7% (+3.3)
CHR: 3.1% (+3.1) (Christian People's Alliance)
No LDem (-9.5) as prev.
Votes cast: 3,026; Labour HOLD.
Masham and Fountains (North Yorkshire) council by-election result:
LDEM: 62.7% (+37.3)
CON: 37.3% (-7.0)
No Ind (-30.3) as prev.
Votes cast: 2,150; Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
We're not seeing it now either, cos it's 88/9!
Truss was heading for literally 0 Tory seats in the worst polls under her
- Pick a few areas around London which are not that developed, but have little to no landscape value, and extremely high conservative majorities.
- Put together a 'housing for the future plan' which involves building a million houses in these areas.
- Say that you will grant 'planning permission in principle' for a million houses by way of an act of parliament in the first 100 days of office, in these areas
- Watch the tories go absolutely insane, watch the internal battles, watch all the nimby tendencies in the liberal democrats and the green party come to the fore... for a total niche issue that has no political downside for the labour party, because they never win in these areas anyway.
ROLFMFAO!!!!
Edit - you have got to be joking. No ball?
And promise a full review of Brexit arrangements before the election, with EFTA/EEA as the result after the election, subject to a referendum.
Finally, black swan events occur more and more. Who would have bet the farm on Labour on the day of the Hartlepool election? This was as recently as 6th May 2021. Feels longer.
'Cutting borrowing enough to enable tax cuts' is an interesting concept.
What you really mean is 'massively cutting public spending to cut borrowing AND enable tax cuts'.
It sounds like Juventus and Barcelona have overspent and want a new league so they can rake in more cash.
And there it is, the 10th wicket.
YESSSSSSS!!!
NOW I can ROFLMFAO.
Australia lose by an innings and 132 runs.
That is an absolute shellacking.
I noticed that the usual suspects had gone a bit quiet over China.
On his T-shirt was the following legend.
'I support 2 teams.
New Zealand and whoever is playing Australia.'
Convert HS2 to a line with a stop every 15-20 miles between London and Brum with a New Town centered on each stop, with road junction links to the near parallel M40 for business parks. The towns themselves constructed to encourage cycling etc as a form of commuting.
I suspect such towns would be very attractive to people and businesses.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/the-next-general-election-will-be-labours-to-lose
That said, it’s good to see Kemi take over at Business, where some time spent on eliminating red tape might bear fruit, albeit not before the election.
Is there a tory leader at next GE market anywhere? There sometimes is, but can't find one. If yes back Sunak at almost any price, because he will call one rather than be ousted.
There are plenty of other lines to reopen or improve if you want commuter trains at slower speeds.
It's one thing to have Shamrock Rovers competing against Derry City to become Irish champions, quite another to have them scrapping against Crawley Town and Hartlepool United to stay in the fourth or fifth, or even sixth, tier of a football pyramid for all of Britain and Ireland.
Most of all they want to fossilised that Big 6 so they get European football every year, despite being as pisspoor as Liverpool or Chelsea are at the moment. They are simply arrogant and entitled.
https://www.centreforcities.org/blog/turning-30-has-poundbury-aged-well/
Essentially the problem with all of this is that building new communities along the lines you are suggesting is a 50 year project, and politics intervenes, so it is hard to see it ever happening.
My idea for the labour party is not a serious solution to the housing and planning problems, it is just an equally stupid response to the policies devised in this area by the tories over the last decade.
However the present set-up feels unsustainable - when Real Madrid can be outspent by Bournemouth something is awry. The answer - as I said - is consolidation of domestic leagues, into bigger leagues - but that will require the ‘great’ clubs to show humility. Hmmm
If neither Johnson nor Truss seriously tried to press the button on an election when they were imperilled, despite speculation they may, Sunak is hardly going to. He's a much more conventional politician than either of them.
Most sports fans thrive on the excitement of uncertainty and the thrill of the unexpected.
The interests of the big clubs and of the fans are diametrically opposed.
Not all of these schemes worked, not least because the decline of manufacturing industry meant that the work was ephemeral, and not well suited to the skill set of the inhabitants, largely from working class communities in inner city slums.
The concept is one worth revisiting for the 21st century.
He also said PMC Wagner are running low on zeks so they are stepping up recruitment efforts in the Balkans, SE Asia, Africa and the US.
Some random take aways:
- long conflict / frozen war the most likely near future outcome;
- US can't produce ammunition at the rate it's being expended by Ukraine [which I found surprising];
- keeping the western unity is key;
- nuclear escalation extremely unlikely;
- taking out Putin could easily make the situation worse rather than resolve it.
And of course: no one knows because all the experts have been pitifully wrong so far.
Interesting evening though.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRD0-7NSXd8
I also simply don't think he'd be interested in doing it as he is quite conventional and I don't think he's going to say "well, sod the lot of you - I'm burning down the farm" which is essentially what a pre-emptive election means - "back me or sack me" invites only one answer from the electorate, and he knows it.
Sunak believes the best result after a Conservative win is a fairly narrow defeat (which I don't think is the Johnson view - he's more sh1t or bust). He believes he needs to go into an election saying, "I've provided 18 months of stability and sanity after several whacky years." Going in on the back of a leadership crisis just doesn't do that.
But Ireland is a sideshow anyway
The big win for British footie would be rescuing Rangers and Celtic. If the Old Firm had regular games against Chelsea, Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool that would be a new level of excitement for everyone. And then the big Scottish teams could return to European greatness
Interesting to see our new signings against Spurs today. Leicester vs Spurs matches are nearly always entertaining goal festivals, though not recently good ones for my team. Football though produces surprises so probably a grim nil nil draw or 1 goal on a contested VAR penalty!