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New Ipsos poll sees sharp decline in Sunak’s ratings – politicalbetting.com
New Ipsos poll sees sharp decline in Sunak’s ratings – politicalbetting.com
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New Ipsos poll sees sharp decline in Sunak’s ratings – politicalbetting.com
The Standard is reporting:
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Let it sink Rishi. Just do the job as well as you can. The Election will be lost whatever you do. There's nothing to be gained from appealing to the constituency which picked the previous two PMs.
Sunak is going down and is becoming Gordon Brown.
Anyone who had to deal with a problem like Zahawi knows that it is difficult because of allegation & counter-allegation.
I personally favour all allegations against politicians being investigated quickly, then a report (& evidence) being made public and swift action taken.
So, Sunak does seem to me to have handled this OK. Just as the Labour Party did OK over the allegations regarding Chris Matheson, ex MP for Chester. They did not suspend him until after an independent report that confirmed that the sexual harassment allegations were true.
If you sack people just because there is an allegation, then you end up with instances like Conor Burns. He was cleared of all wrongdoing after a sexual harassment story was leaked to the public, but by then he had been sacked. The alleged victim hadn’t made a complaint & AIUI there was no evidence of misconduct.
Now in Zahawi's case, tax law is complex and his affairs were (probably) in the hands of a tax advisor. So, whether he was personally culpable did need a bit of time to investigate.
If he were entirely representative of the Party, or even the Parliamentary Party, you guys wouldn't have too much to worry about. You certainly wouldn't be facing the possibility of meltdown.
As it is....well you know how it is.
Accept it mate, you're out.
In every area he was awful mate, I am afraid as a Labour supporter I am disappointed you supported the charlatan
Sunak has been compared to Brown on this thread. Perhaps the similarity is years as Chancellors used to pondering fine detail for months, then not appreciating the change of pace needed in Number 10. Zahawi could have been axed weeks ago, for instance. Both are also being asked to cos play the once-popular previous leader, which means they are pressed into daft stunts.
Is there no competent advice available to the prime minister of the UK about how things will sound?
All the enquiry did was reveal he had failed to disclose it on several more occasions.
I don't see he has any defence to that either before or after the enquiry.
JAMES COMER: We're investigating the Biden family for influence peddling
CNN'S PAMELA BROWN: But why not investigate the Trump family for the same?
COMER: We have no evidence
BROWN: What evidence do you have for Biden?
COMER: That's what we're investigating
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1619869216345100288
https://twitter.com/azamatistan/status/1619677551806521344
Though curiously the electorate in the former DDR is more opposed to support for Ukraine than is the rest of the German electorate.
Although it was pretty obvious to me that the alleged bully was likely guilty, it still took over 6 months.
The alleged bully's defence still actually needed to be examined.
And all the while, folks were saying: why has @YBarddCwsc not taken swift action against bullying?
I don't think there are enough MPs willing to risk a repeat of Liz Truss, which might result if Johnson returns as PM, or Braverman wins the next leadership contest, to give Sunak the push out.
The charming but unassuming chap suddenly ripping off his Italian suit to reveal the Superman sign underneath.
It looks from the outside, as if Sunak has chosen an arbitrary date to sack the minister, having waited so long that the damage to his own reputation has been done, while not actually waiting for the report that he himself commissioned? Worst of all worlds for the PM.
Conservative lead.
But really my point was about how feeble the "pretty decisively" sounded, in the circumstances. Even if you've been a pathetically weak ditherer, for God's sake tell people you've been an iron fist (if necessary in a velvet glove of due process)!
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1132735/Letter_from_Sir_Laurie_Magnus_to_the_Prime_Minister__29_January_2023.pdf
Sunak's job is simply to mind the shop, and prevent it from burning down, until closing time. He's essentially an administrator for a government that is being wound up. Everything Must Go.
There will be no management buyout, no private capital rescue deal. That's been tried and the accounts took such a hammering that there's nothing left to save.
The Kremlin accuses Boris Johnson of lying.
Past form suggests….
https://news.sky.com/story/amp/kremlin-dismisses-boris-johnsons-claim-vladimir-putin-threatened-to-kill-him-with-missile-in-call-ahead-of-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-12798288
https://youtu.be/ZpZkPf7ogDc
But that simply doesn't apply to ministerial posts. There's no right to 'due process' if the PM wants to sack you - and in this case it was clear from Zahawi's own public statements, before the 'enquiry', that he'd failed to disclose a pretty clear conflict of interest.
And he wasn't sacked because of an allegation, but because of what he failed to tell the PM.
That a load of the public think he fiddled his tax doesn't help the PR side of things, but the precise detail of his dispute with HMRC really doesn't matter.
The (mis)quote is a bit misleading, the article actually says:
"These countries [Latvia, Lithuania and Poland], with relatively recent experience of Soviet occupation, see no benefit in holding what they have in reserve until the Russian army arrives on their territory."
Given that the Russians seem to threaten nuclear war whenever there is a “y” in the name of the day, claiming that Putin *didn't* make a threat would be the questionable statement.
https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/yw45p/
-Unlike 2015, he failed to crush the Lib Dems
-He only won a single seat in Scotland
By comparison
1) Labour aren't really competing with the Lib Dems over any Tory seats they could realistically win
2) While a full recovery of their seats in Scotland is very unrealistic, Labour will do better there than Cameron/the Tories did in 2010
While I don't think Labour will win a landslide, I do think they'll manage to get a working majority (IMHO, they will do better in England & Wales than they did in 2005, though obviously won't do as well they did in Scotland).
https://twitter.com/GrahamGGrant/status/1620029292284612610
Why has Zahawi not had the whip removed. Sunak is saying that a liar is not allowed to be in cabinet but it is perfectly acceptable to have one as a Cons MP.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/opinion/1203435/the-quiet-unexpected-vindication-of-the-euro/
When asked about 16 year olds being able to purchase alcohol the first Minister, after initially seeming to accept it, backtracked and it was an emphatic no from the puritans.
Zahawi received a large amount of money that rested in an offshore account.
He hoped that because the money was resting offshore if he let it rest there long enough he wouldn't have to pay tsx on it if / when he brought the money back to the UK.
Otherwise goodbye to the Tory majority in the House, if all are held to that standard...
To be fair to Sunak, perhaps the biggest conflict of interest surrounding Zahawi was Johnson installing him as CoE whilst Zahawi was under investigation by HMRC. That is an unbelievable dereliction of duty from both Johnson and Zahawi. And the biggest issue for the Conservatives SHOULD be Johnson's alleged conflict of interest patronages in relation the his loan guarantees both with regard to the potential for gifted roles at the BBC and the Commonwealth Office. All these ordure lined roads lead back to Johnson.
Is there perhaps widespread under-reporting, with the head of household being less likely to report trans offspring, whereas single people completing their own forms can be more open?
"My conjecture about the anomalies in returns is readily tested. The ONS just needs to cross-tabulate gender identity with language or with country of birth ..."
They said: “We think too many journalists lack understanding of basic economics or lack confidence in reporting it. This brings a high risk to impartiality.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/01/30/bbc-impartiality-risk-journalists-lack-understanding-basic-economics/
No shit sherlock....as we saw during COVID, analysis of numbers, too confusing....
I understand that the disquiet over the sex question may also have caused some to boycott the gender question too. It's not implausible that such a boycott would gain more traction in an area like Brighton with a larger (or at least more visible) transgender community throug word of mouth etc than in some other places. Non-response would be a key thing to consider too, I think - which may be in the pre-print, I did not read it fully.
Not quite my field, but if I was reviewing it I'd be asking for fair bit more analysis to pin this down before publication, but would be recommending publication once that was satisfied. It's interesting and potentially a very important issue - if there is confusion here, there might also be confusion on other things.
Because Sunak hasn't been able to do his Clark Kent act, and rip off his jacket.
HMRC have some evidence that Zahawi had a loan covered by the trust, so that demonstrates he was a beneificiary, which he claimed was not the case.
Regarding the allocation of shares Zahawi's father received considerably more shares for his initial investment than other share holders did. HMRC doesn't believe that the allocation was proper.
I'm not disputing he's done wrong, but I do not accept the idea that this is a simple case.
Box 1: important PMs. Love them or hate them, these PMs marked a political turning point and defined an epoch. Lloyd George, Churchill, Atlee, Thatcher, Blair
Box 2. Notable but second tier: MacMillan, Wilson, Heath, possibly Brown, Cameron
Box 3: weak PMs/ victims of forces outside their control: Chamberlain, Eden, Callaghan, Major, May, Sunak
Box 4 (new category) complete plonkers: Johnson
Box 5: glitches in the matrix. Truss
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/July–September_2022_Conservative_Party_leadership_election
(I mean, I know they don't actually vote. But in theory...)
If not, bagsy.
Is there an actual count somewhere of how many Tory MPs have decided not to stand again, vs. how many have announced they will stand? I recall that CCHQ asked them all to say by New Year, but I've not seen many more than a couple of dozen indicate one way or the other.
Forgot Douglas-Home. Probably another 3.
It's like they looked at 5 years of Labour and said, yes please.
They are legitimately more crazy than Labour now - and what is impressive is that they seemed to do it all within a year
What is does say though is that the manner of any Sunak exit would likely be pretty normal, and not done in Truss time.
This would entail a number of things including, Sunak resisting any pressure on him and declaring himself up for the fight; malcontents, perhaps Boris supporters, ramping that they have 20-30 letters in and will bring Sunak down "soon" for months on end; if they do get to 53/4 letters having to then persuade their fellow MPs that an uncertain leadership process, likely with more normal rules and multiple candidates and doubts over whether Boris will even stand, is a good idea.
Even with a solid base of Boris supporters, at each stage there is a threshold, doubt, a reading of the wider room. All those protections that kept Boris in post for so long.
And the underlying question of whether changing yet again will really, this time, advance the cause, "no" being a highly plausible answer, or simply shred further their remaining tiny tissue of credibility.
If there is an air of resignation, it is not surprising.
It’s what happens when the vast majority of the TV media hacks are liberal arts majors, and the broadcasters themselves have a hierarchy that values arts above sciences - even when the big story is a massive science story.
How many media outlets sent a science or medical correspondent into Downing St, to ask questions of the PM and his medical advisors? None, they all sent political correspondents.
What if there is a group in Newham that offers, possibly with little publicity, support for transgender people seeking refugee status after fleeing a country in which they would be persecuted for that? It wouldn't take a big group to skew the numbers given the low baseline and such a thing would also correlate non-English language/birth with transgender identity.
FWIW, I suspect the author may be on to something and don't think my explanation is particularly likely. But it is possible and social research in particular is littered with the corpses of papers that got excited about a correlation without considering the full picture.
My relative liking for Sunak arises from my belief that he is honest, competent and responsible.
I happen to think also that there is no reasonable alternative, but if you have someone else in mind, let us know.
Yes, it’s another rapist with a warrant card.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/01/30/serving-dorset-police-officer-charged-rape/
I fear that the membership's collective stupidity will keep the Conservative Party out of office for years and we will be stuck with a Labour party that bloats the public sector and drives down our competitiveness year on year. I just hope they are not as bad as I fear they might be.