Heh. So from recent word clouds, to paraphrase Kirsty MacColl:
There’s a guy in downing street swears he's a good prime minister Just like you swear to me that you’d be better, too There’s a guy in downing street swears he's a good prime minister But he’s a liar and I’m not sure about you
Biden press conference confirming the 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine together with Germany and now other NATO countries this has to be a huge moment and Sky is saying WW2 tank battles are likely to occur
According to Russian state TV, it shows that the Germans have once again elected Nazis...
Why would they be worried? It's their strategy: say as little as possible, win the election by default, and worry about what they're going to do with power once they have it.
Yes, Labour should be worried, for the same reason Arsenal should be. They are in the lead but the next two or three games can reverse all that.
SKS's difficulty is one shared by everyone in serious politics: about the intractable issues what on earth would coherent, non- contradictory and contentful policy in election winning terms (not strap lines and not unicorns) look like on:
Brexit and its aftermath Debt Deficit Cost of living Energy prices Interest rates NHS right now Police corruption House prices and housing Immigration Social care Tax.
Can anyone wonder why he has little to say? There is no holistic and consistent policy on these that, if promised, could win an election for anyone, however clever.
The strategy choice is Borisism (boosterism and contradiction) or SKSism - maximal silence.
Why would they be worried? It's their strategy: say as little as possible, win the election by default, and worry about what they're going to do with power once they have it.
The Tories seem to be worrying about what they're going to do with power, and they have it already? Or so you'd believe!
I'm surprised how the prevailing sentiment on this site seems to be that the Tories will mount a comeback, simply because they usually do.
It could very much happen, but at previous elections, I don't think there's been the perfect storm of circumstances, and the extremely negative sentiment towards the government, from voters who might even have voted Tory themselves previously.
Starmer doesn't have to be Blair for a sizeable Labour majority. I'd question how much people really know about what opposition leaders stand for, before they're actually elected.
One for those with longer memories: How does the general perception of Sunak right now, compare to the general perception of John Major in 1996?
Why would they be worried? It's their strategy: say as little as possible, win the election by default, and worry about what they're going to do with power once they have it.
Last bit isn't right - there'll be plenty of planning going on.
Why would they be worried? It's their strategy: say as little as possible, win the election by default, and worry about what they're going to do with power once they have it.
Last bit isn't right - there'll be plenty of planning going on.
If they want to have public support for what they want to do, they're fast running out of time to get it. Which won't matter if - but only if - they can get a big majority.
Got my Mac set up all nicely, it really is a world of difference. I think I'll budget upgrades for the whole team next FY, some of these poor sods are using i5 8GB ones with the butterfly keyboards.
In other news just seen the team note on factory gate prices falling in the UK, I think we're set for a much bigger fall in inflation than is being forecast. I also noticed the OBR has decided to ignore reality and doubled down on their already woefully incorrect economic doom forecasts as I predicted earlier this month.
Your dyspeptic Euromedia link for tonight is the Deutsche Welle report shown after Mr Scholz had said "yes" to Leopards for Ukraine, about how the French are going to have trouble sending Leclerc tanks to Ukraine because half of them are broken down.
And who said they did not do irony.
Unfortunately DW do not have that on a deep link afaics.
Got my Mac set up all nicely, it really is a world of difference. I think I'll budget upgrades for the whole team next FY, some of these poor sods are using i5 8GB ones with the butterfly keyboards.
In other news just seen the team note on factory gate prices falling in the UK, I think we're set for a much bigger fall in inflation than is being forecast. I also noticed the OBR has decided to ignore reality and doubled down on their already woefully incorrect economic doom forecasts as I predicted earlier this month.
Why would they be worried? It's their strategy: say as little as possible, win the election by default, and worry about what they're going to do with power once they have it.
Last bit isn't right - there'll be plenty of planning going on.
If they want to have public support for what they want to do, they're fast running out of time to get it. Which won't matter if - but only if - they can get a big majority.
You are far too eager! There's ages to the GE. Getting in any way specific on big things now - with this sort of poll lead - is all downside no upside.
But there's really no mystery. It'll be New Labour without any money. Beats exhausted rancid Tories without any money hands down imo.
I'm surprised how the prevailing sentiment on this site seems to be that the Tories will mount a comeback, simply because they usually do.
It could very much happen, but at previous elections, I don't think there's been the perfect storm of circumstances, and the extremely negative sentiment towards the government, from voters who might even have voted Tory themselves previously.
Starmer doesn't have to be Blair for a sizeable Labour majority. I'd question how much people really know about what opposition leaders stand for, before they're actually elected.
One for those with longer memories: How does the general perception of Sunak right now, compare to the general perception of John Major in 1996?
They will improve in the polls before the next GE, the great tory propaganda machine will see to that, wouldnt be at all surprised to see them about 6% behind come polling day
Why would they be worried? It's their strategy: say as little as possible, win the election by default, and worry about what they're going to do with power once they have it.
Last bit isn't right - there'll be plenty of planning going on.
If they want to have public support for what they want to do, they're fast running out of time to get it. Which won't matter if - but only if - they can get a big majority.
You are far too eager! There's ages to the GE. Getting in any way specific on big things now - with this sort of poll lead - is all downside no upside.
But there's really no mystery. It'll be New Labour without any money. Beats exhausted rancid Tories without any money hands down imo.
Short termist thinking, all electoral strategy and no strategy for government.
The lead is big enough that they can afford to lose some of it. And it's certainly better that they win a majority of 20 on a broad-based agenda that has gained public support than they get a majority of 100+ and only reveal their plans after the election.
Thre's only a downside for them to revealing their plans if they're going to be unpopular!
Basically it boils down to Russia being able to say on the news and social media that 'Brits are openly discussing the vaccine being a killer, no popular support for the Nazi Ukrainians, and they've had gayness foisted on them.'
Can't they just say that anyways?
I thought we were trying to impose TransGayNATOWokeness on Russia to reduce the size of their Mighty! Weapons! Using the vaccines as a vector.
Or am I getting confused about which conspiracy I am taking part in, again?
OT : No. they shouldn't be worried. Starmer has reached the stage that New Labor reached in about 1993.
"We are not mad Tankies, wanting to leave the EU (!), NATO, the space time continuum and join the Warsaw Pact and COMECON*. We are a bit bland, social democrats, plan on spending a bit more on health etc and not being Tories."
*At various Labour party conferences in the run up to the Longest Suicide Note, this was advocated by various speakers. Not obviously on hard drugs.
Why would they be worried? It's their strategy: say as little as possible, win the election by default, and worry about what they're going to do with power once they have it.
Last bit isn't right - there'll be plenty of planning going on.
If they want to have public support for what they want to do, they're fast running out of time to get it. Which won't matter if - but only if - they can get a big majority.
You are far too eager! There's ages to the GE. Getting in any way specific on big things now - with this sort of poll lead - is all downside no upside.
But there's really no mystery. It'll be New Labour without any money. Beats exhausted rancid Tories without any money hands down imo.
Short termist thinking, all electoral strategy and no strategy for government.
The lead is big enough that they can afford to lose some of it. And it's certainly better that they win a majority of 20 on a broad-based agenda that has gained public support than they get a majority of 100+ and only reveal their plans after the election.
Thre's only a downside for them to revealing their plans if they're going to be unpopular!
We'll try and hold onto the big lead a while longer if it's ok with you, Driver.
I don't think the issue of paying a penalty to HMRC ought to exclude someone from political office. You'll get a £100 one if you file your return one day late! When the penalties run into the millions its a different matter of course.
No. Unless the Tories can do something radical to change peoples' opinions (and they lack the internal cohesion to do that, even if they wanted to), Labour will get more of a benefit of the doubt when people not paying attention finally do.
FPT: It's hard to say -- now -- just how serious Republican voters will be in choosing a nominee, but, if many are serious, then they are likely to take a hard look at Nikki Haley:
She was a successful governor of South Carolina, and has been a success at the UN. "She and her husband regularly attend the United Methodist Church. She also attends Sikh services once or twice a year." "Her husband is an officer in the South Carolina Army National Guard. During her gubernatorial term, he was sent in January 2013 on a year-long deployment to Afghanistan." They have two children. source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikki_Haley
She can do arithmetic, unlike Biden, Trump, and Obama.
For the record: I do not yet have an opinion on whether she is value at the current odds. But I would mention this scenario, which I have been thinking about: It is at least possible that she might win a plurality in a three-way race against Trump and DeSantis -- which would be big, given the winner-take-all rules in some Republican contests.
(There are other Republicans who are, on the face of it, qualified to be president, for example, Larry Hogan of Maryland and Chris Sununu of New Hampshire.)
Yes, Labour should be worried, for the same reason Arsenal should be. They are in the lead but the next two or three games can reverse all that.
SKS's difficulty is one shared by everyone in serious politics: about the intractable issues what on earth would coherent, non- contradictory and contentful policy in election winning terms (not strap lines and not unicorns) look like on:
Brexit and its aftermath Debt Deficit Cost of living Energy prices Interest rates NHS right now Police corruption House prices and housing Immigration Social care Tax.
Can anyone wonder why he has little to say? There is no holistic and consistent policy on these that, if promised, could win an election for anyone, however clever.
The strategy choice is Borisism (boosterism and contradiction) or SKSism - maximal silence.
Your list - who does the public trust on those issues? It's not the Tories, currently, on pretty much all of them.
To turn that around, Sunak would have to have an undeniable, obvious success on each of them.
I don't think the issue of paying a penalty to HMRC ought to exclude someone from political office. You'll get a £100 one if you file your return one day late! When the penalties run into the millions its a different matter of course.
No 10 confirms Sunak has never paid a penalty to HMRC
Also this morning a 5 way call between Sunak, Biden, Macron, Scholz and Meloni as part of allies close coordination of support for Ukraine
So when it comes to Leopards, it seems that Germany can change its spots.
It seems that there has been some very well organised behind the scenes politics and persuasion from quite a few countries working together to herd the Germans to having no alternative to that decision, over a period, including various mainland European, us and the USA.
I personally doubt that the US tanks will ever make it, or will sit in a corner of a warehouse if they do - but by then it will be a done thing.
I do wonder a bit how many working or repairable tanks the Bundeswehr has in its possession. As the current leading formation in the NATO Rapid Response formation they are reported to be using 1970s vintage Marders as their IFV rather than the more recent Pumas, as the latter are kaputt.
“Even with the best preparations, the question of the vehicles’ readiness has become a game of lottery,” Major General Ruprecht von Butler wrote his boss, according to a copy of the email quoted by Der Spiegel over the weekend.
During an exercise this month to prepare a Bundeswehr tank brigade for inclusion in NATO’s “high readiness” response force, all 18 of the modern German infantry fighting vehicles failed, von Butler wrote.
It is coincidental that you should be discussing Apple today, because today is the day I plan to mail a letter to Tim Cook, offering him a small present -- with a condition:
The present and the condition? A colorful "Free Tibet" bumper sticker, which Cook can have if he will promise to display it prominently.
(This is the start of a small campaign in which I suggest to leaders and celebrities that they are too close to "Emperor" Xi's regime. I have three bumper stickers, and don't expect to run out of them by the end of this year, assuming I send out similar letters once a month.)
FPT: It's hard to say -- now -- just how serious Republican voters will be in choosing a nominee, but, if many are serious, then they are likely to take a hard look at Nikki Haley:
She was a successful governor of South Carolina, and has been a success at the UN. "She and her husband regularly attend the United Methodist Church. She also attends Sikh services once or twice a year." "Her husband is an officer in the South Carolina Army National Guard. During her gubernatorial term, he was sent in January 2013 on a year-long deployment to Afghanistan." They have two children. source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikki_Haley
She can do arithmetic, unlike Biden, Trump, and Obama.
For the record: I do not yet have an opinion on whether she is value at the current odds. But I would mention this scenario, which I have been thinking about: It is at least possible that she might win a plurality in a three-way race against Trump and DeSantis -- which would be big, given the winner-take-all rules in some Republican contests.
(There are other Republicans who are, on the face of it, qualified to be president, for example, Larry Hogan of Maryland and Chris Sununu of New Hampshire.)
How? Evangelicals made up over 40% of Republican voters , so evangelical Pence might win a plurality in a 3 way race v Trump and DeSantis.
However RINO Moderates only make up about 10 to 20% of today's GOP at most, so as they will be Haley's main backers how does she win even a 3 way race?
Your dyspeptic Euromedia link for tonight is the Deutsche Welle report shown after Mr Scholz had said "yes" to Leopards for Ukraine, about how the French are going to have trouble sending Leclerc tanks to Ukraine because half of them are broken down.
And who said they did not do irony.
Unfortunately DW do not have that on a deep link afaics.
The maintenance standards for all the major European armies (us, the Germans and the French) have been shown to be woeful.
Yes, Labour should be worried, for the same reason Arsenal should be. They are in the lead but the next two or three games can reverse all that.
SKS's difficulty is one shared by everyone in serious politics: about the intractable issues what on earth would coherent, non- contradictory and contentful policy in election winning terms (not strap lines and not unicorns) look like on:
Brexit and its aftermath Debt Deficit Cost of living Energy prices Interest rates NHS right now Police corruption House prices and housing Immigration Social care Tax.
Can anyone wonder why he has little to say? There is no holistic and consistent policy on these that, if promised, could win an election for anyone, however clever.
The strategy choice is Borisism (boosterism and contradiction) or SKSism - maximal silence.
Your list - who does the public trust on those issues? It's not the Tories, currently, on pretty much all of them.
To turn that around, Sunak would have to have an undeniable, obvious success on each of them.
This is of course all true. it leaves SKS's dilemma unsolved. I hope he wins as the Tories are tainted beyond repair for now by a series of scandals. None of that helps in discerning the actual way of governing the country that will address the intractable issues once the SKS silence ends, as it must, once he hold the levers of power.
FPT: It's hard to say -- now -- just how serious Republican voters will be in choosing a nominee, but, if many are serious,
They're not, so she's not value.
She's value for 2028 when a Trumpite has been spanked more than a submissive paying a dominatrix by the lash. Even there, however, she wouldn't be favourite.
The sad part is although she's far from perfect I think she'd actually be quite a good president.
I don't think the issue of paying a penalty to HMRC ought to exclude someone from political office. You'll get a £100 one if you file your return one day late! When the penalties run into the millions its a different matter of course.
As Corbyn did, of course.
Although comparing Corbyn to Zahawi would be the ultimate in whataboutery.
My memory suggests that "don't know" would have been the overwhelming response in 1977 and 1995, to give two examples, if this sort of polling had been done back then. People didn't really have much of a clue about what either Thatcher or Blair intended, two years before they were elected.
I'd expect the governing party to get a more positive policy response in these word clouds, because they are in power and need to justify what they have done with that power and why they deserve more time.
Why would they be worried? It's their strategy: say as little as possible, win the election by default, and worry about what they're going to do with power once they have it.
Last bit isn't right - there'll be plenty of planning going on.
If they want to have public support for what they want to do, they're fast running out of time to get it. Which won't matter if - but only if - they can get a big majority.
You are far too eager! There's ages to the GE. Getting in any way specific on big things now - with this sort of poll lead - is all downside no upside.
But there's really no mystery. It'll be New Labour without any money. Beats exhausted rancid Tories without any money hands down imo.
Short termist thinking, all electoral strategy and no strategy for government.
The lead is big enough that they can afford to lose some of it. And it's certainly better that they win a majority of 20 on a broad-based agenda that has gained public support than they get a majority of 100+ and only reveal their plans after the election.
Thre's only a downside for them to revealing their plans if they're going to be unpopular!
LOL at the Tories trying to give Labour 'tips'. Being effusive about policies now would be rank stupidity on Labour's part – the Tories will simply steal any good ideas they have.
Your dyspeptic Euromedia link for tonight is the Deutsche Welle report shown after Mr Scholz had said "yes" to Leopards for Ukraine, about how the French are going to have trouble sending Leclerc tanks to Ukraine because half of them are broken down.
And who said they did not do irony.
Unfortunately DW do not have that on a deep link afaics.
The maintenance standards for all the major European armies (us, the Germans and the French) have been shown to be woeful.
"maintenance standards for all the major European armies"
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.....
I'm surprised how the prevailing sentiment on this site seems to be that the Tories will mount a comeback, simply because they usually do.
It could very much happen, but at previous elections, I don't think there's been the perfect storm of circumstances, and the extremely negative sentiment towards the government, from voters who might even have voted Tory themselves previously.
Starmer doesn't have to be Blair for a sizeable Labour majority. I'd question how much people really know about what opposition leaders stand for, before they're actually elected.
One for those with longer memories: How does the general perception of Sunak right now, compare to the general perception of John Major in 1996?
Got my Mac set up all nicely, it really is a world of difference. I think I'll budget upgrades for the whole team next FY, some of these poor sods are using i5 8GB ones with the butterfly keyboards.
In other news just seen the team note on factory gate prices falling in the UK, I think we're set for a much bigger fall in inflation than is being forecast. I also noticed the OBR has decided to ignore reality and doubled down on their already woefully incorrect economic doom forecasts as I predicted earlier this month.
Worth saying that I'm currently setting up my new Mac (a second hand 32gb MacBook Pro M1 Max 14") that I picked up for just under £1700 - yep it's a lot but way less than the new price and half the price of the M2 equivalent.
Likewise my new phone is an £800 iphone 13 max which cost £1250 new.
There are decent savings to be had if you are happy to accept slightly used.
Got my Mac set up all nicely, it really is a world of difference. I think I'll budget upgrades for the whole team next FY, some of these poor sods are using i5 8GB ones with the butterfly keyboards.
In other news just seen the team note on factory gate prices falling in the UK, I think we're set for a much bigger fall in inflation than is being forecast. I also noticed the OBR has decided to ignore reality and doubled down on their already woefully incorrect economic doom forecasts as I predicted earlier this month.
Worth saying that I'm currently setting up my new Mac (a second hand 32gb MacBook Pro M1 Max 14") that I picked up second hand for just under £1700 - yep it's a lot but way less than the new price and half the price of the M2 equivalent.
Likewise my new phone is an £800 iphone 13 max which cost £1250 new.
There are decent savings to be had if you are happy to accept slightly used.
I got a MacBook Pro, three years old, £500.
Had to replace the batteries as well, which was another hundred, but it works very well indeed.
Would love to upgrade the ram on my Mac mini but some dull bugger soldered it in place.
Why would they be worried? It's their strategy: say as little as possible, win the election by default, and worry about what they're going to do with power once they have it.
Last bit isn't right - there'll be plenty of planning going on.
If they want to have public support for what they want to do, they're fast running out of time to get it. Which won't matter if - but only if - they can get a big majority.
You are far too eager! There's ages to the GE. Getting in any way specific on big things now - with this sort of poll lead - is all downside no upside.
But there's really no mystery. It'll be New Labour without any money. Beats exhausted rancid Tories without any money hands down imo.
Short termist thinking, all electoral strategy and no strategy for government.
The lead is big enough that they can afford to lose some of it. And it's certainly better that they win a majority of 20 on a broad-based agenda that has gained public support than they get a majority of 100+ and only reveal their plans after the election.
Thre's only a downside for them to revealing their plans if they're going to be unpopular!
LOL at the Tories trying to give Labour 'tips'. Being effusive about policies now would be rank stupidity on Labour's part – the Tories will simply steal any good ideas they have.
If they can get away with it, any party wants to win on a platform of "Get a grip, fix the mess, clean the stables, do whatever's needed", followed by "oh dear, the situation is even worse than we thought" once in office.
In a different world, it wouldn't work, but most elections boil down to "steady as she goes" vs. "time for a change". The "hold on to nurse" vs. "something worse" (which ultimately scuppered Corbyn) is ultimately secondary.
And what any incoming government will be hoping is that, even if their policies are unpopular at first, they will bring about improvements that are popular five years down the line. It depends if they judge the country is ready to knowingly take the nasty medicine, or whether they will clench their mouths shut if told in advance.
Off topic, but to some amusing, to others appalling, and for me, both:
Birds of a feather flock together? "The Philadelphia Inquirer obtained a photo Trump took earlier this month at his West Palm Beach golf course, wherein he gave the camera a thumbs-up alongside Joseph “Skinny Joey” Merlino. As the newspaper points out, Merlino was a Philadelphia/South Jersey mobster with ties to violent crime who has repeatedly gone to prison on racketeering and illegal gambling charges." (Links omitted.) source:https://www.mediaite.com/trump/trump-campaign-claims-ignorance-after-ex-president-takes-photo-with-former-philly-mobster/
That looks like a Tory landslide. If you add Tory, Reform, and the 20pp of the Labour vote that is soft because Starmer is weak and doesn't know what he stands for, that leaves the Tories on 51%. Labour is toast.
Off topic, but to some amusing, to others appalling, and for me, both:
Birds of a feather flock together? "The Philadelphia Inquirer obtained a photo Trump took earlier this month at his West Palm Beach golf course, wherein he gave the camera a thumbs-up alongside Joseph “Skinny Joey” Merlino. As the newspaper points out, Merlino was a Philadelphia/South Jersey mobster with ties to violent crime who has repeatedly gone to prison on racketeering and illegal gambling charges." (Links omitted.) source:https://www.mediaite.com/trump/trump-campaign-claims-ignorance-after-ex-president-takes-photo-with-former-philly-mobster/
You wonder Trump hasn't worn out his jackhammers, the number of times he's gone through rock bottom.
Yet more evidence for the Tory recovery which can be divined by measuring the potential differential of Sunak’s personal favourability multiplied by the number of multiverses in Gloria Hunniford’s Ministry of all the Droids.
Got my Mac set up all nicely, it really is a world of difference. I think I'll budget upgrades for the whole team next FY, some of these poor sods are using i5 8GB ones with the butterfly keyboards.
In other news just seen the team note on factory gate prices falling in the UK, I think we're set for a much bigger fall in inflation than is being forecast. I also noticed the OBR has decided to ignore reality and doubled down on their already woefully incorrect economic doom forecasts as I predicted earlier this month.
Worth saying that I'm currently setting up my new Mac (a second hand 32gb MacBook Pro M1 Max 14") that I picked up for just under £1700 - yep it's a lot but way less than the new price and half the price of the M2 equivalent.
Likewise my new phone is an £800 iphone 13 max which cost £1250 new.
There are decent savings to be had if you are happy to accept slightly used.
Nah we get our stuff directly from Apple pre configured. It's just easier that way.
That looks like a Tory landslide. If you add Tory, Reform, and the 20pp of the Labour vote that is soft because Starmer is weak and doesn't know what he stands for, that leaves the Tories on 51%. Labour is toast.
Got my Mac set up all nicely, it really is a world of difference. I think I'll budget upgrades for the whole team next FY, some of these poor sods are using i5 8GB ones with the butterfly keyboards.
In other news just seen the team note on factory gate prices falling in the UK, I think we're set for a much bigger fall in inflation than is being forecast. I also noticed the OBR has decided to ignore reality and doubled down on their already woefully incorrect economic doom forecasts as I predicted earlier this month.
Worth saying that I'm currently setting up my new Mac (a second hand 32gb MacBook Pro M1 Max 14") that I picked up for just under £1700 - yep it's a lot but way less than the new price and half the price of the M2 equivalent.
Likewise my new phone is an £800 iphone 13 max which cost £1250 new.
There are decent savings to be had if you are happy to accept slightly used.
Nah we get our stuff directly from Apple pre configured. It's just easier that way.
A sane policy for corporations not so great when you are spending post tax income
The Olympic gold medal-winning canoeist Etienne Stott was one of five climate activists who had charges against them dismissed on Tuesday after a judge agreed with their claim that the oil tanker they had occupied was not itself a vehicle....
Andersen glued herself on to a metal bar on the side of the vehicle and Curren glued herself to one of its rear wheels, while Davies managed to evade a police cordon to get beneath and glue himself to its fuel tank. The vehicle was delayed for more than four hours while specialist police teams were deployed to unstick and bring them down.
That looks like a Tory landslide. If you add Tory, Reform, and the 20pp of the Labour vote that is soft because Starmer is weak and doesn't know what he stands for, that leaves the Tories on 51%. Labour is toast.
Not a hope in hell for Starmer!
Surprised "Remainer" or similar didn't figure in the word cloud.
That looks like a Tory landslide. If you add Tory, Reform, and the 20pp of the Labour vote that is soft because Starmer is weak and doesn't know what he stands for, that leaves the Tories on 51%. Labour is toast.
You are HUFYD and I claim my £5….
He is indeed my go-to polling analytics guru, and I hope my effort to emulate him was worthy.
The Olympic gold medal-winning canoeist Etienne Stott was one of five climate activists who had charges against them dismissed on Tuesday after a judge agreed with their claim that the oil tanker they had occupied was not itself a vehicle....
Andersen glued herself on to a metal bar on the side of the vehicle and Curren glued herself to one of its rear wheels, while Davies managed to evade a police cordon to get beneath and glue himself to its fuel tank. The vehicle was delayed for more than four hours while specialist police teams were deployed to unstick and bring them down.
Having re-listened to (What's the Story) Morning Glory again, for the first time in a long time, I'm not convinced Liam Gallagher can sing.
I was massively into it at the time, but his extraneous drawling vocals on Wonderwall are, quite frankly, rather flat - and grate a bit - and I think Noel probably performs better on Don't Look Back in Anger.
At the time, I thought they sung as beautifully as Frank Sinatra, but I was an impressionable 90s teenager at the time.
Off topic, but to some amusing, to others appalling, and for me, both:
Birds of a feather flock together? "The Philadelphia Inquirer obtained a photo Trump took earlier this month at his West Palm Beach golf course, wherein he gave the camera a thumbs-up alongside Joseph “Skinny Joey” Merlino. As the newspaper points out, Merlino was a Philadelphia/South Jersey mobster with ties to violent crime who has repeatedly gone to prison on racketeering and illegal gambling charges." (Links omitted.) source:https://www.mediaite.com/trump/trump-campaign-claims-ignorance-after-ex-president-takes-photo-with-former-philly-mobster/
That's only amusing in the 'you have to laugh or you'll weep' sense. Same way I'd laugh if 'Boris' were to come back as PM.
Having re-listened to (What's the Story) Morning Glory again, for the first time in a long time, I'm not convinced Liam Gallagher can sing.
I was massively into it at the time, but his extraneous drawling vocals on Wonderwall are, quite frankly, rather flat - and grate a bit - and I think Noel probably performs better on Don't Look Back in Anger.
At the time, I thought they sung as beautifully as Frank Sinatra, but I was an impressionable 90s teenager at the time.
I was more into likes of Smashing Pumpkins at the time. Billy Corgan (very weird bloke, don't do drugs kids!) has that very distinctive flat voice and live it can sound very bad. I watched an interview with him the other day, bizarrely it totally deliberate put on, he can sing perfectly well and in-tune and does so in the interview, but decided that it wouldn't be distinctive.
The Olympic gold medal-winning canoeist Etienne Stott was one of five climate activists who had charges against them dismissed on Tuesday after a judge agreed with their claim that the oil tanker they had occupied was not itself a vehicle....
Andersen glued herself on to a metal bar on the side of the vehicle and Curren glued herself to one of its rear wheels, while Davies managed to evade a police cordon to get beneath and glue himself to its fuel tank. The vehicle was delayed for more than four hours while specialist police teams were deployed to unstick and bring them down.
Having re-listened to (What's the Story) Morning Glory again, for the first time in a long time, I'm not convinced Liam Gallagher can sing.
I was massively into it at the time, but his extraneous drawling vocals on Wonderwall are, quite frankly, rather flat - and grate a bit - and I think Noel probably performs better on Don't Look Back in Anger.
At the time, I thought they sung as beautifully as Frank Sinatra, but I was an impressionable 90s teenager at the time.
I'm currently listening to The Beautiful South, which is one of my favourite bands. Last night I was surprised to realise that two former members, Heaton and Abbott, have had two consecutive Number 1 albums as a duo.
Particularly interesting as I really used to fancy Abbott.
Having re-listened to (What's the Story) Morning Glory again, for the first time in a long time, I'm not convinced Liam Gallagher can sing.
I was massively into it at the time, but his extraneous drawling vocals on Wonderwall are, quite frankly, rather flat - and grate a bit - and I think Noel probably performs better on Don't Look Back in Anger.
At the time, I thought they sung as beautifully as Frank Sinatra, but I was an impressionable 90s teenager at the time.
I'm currently listening to The Beautiful South, which is one of my favourite bands. Last night I was surprised to realise that two former members, Heaton and Abbott, have had two consecutive Number 1 albums as a duo.
Particularly interesting as I really used to fancy Abbott.
We saw Heaton and Abbott a few years back at Scarborough open air theatre. They were exceptionally good.
Got my Mac set up all nicely, it really is a world of difference. I think I'll budget upgrades for the whole team next FY, some of these poor sods are using i5 8GB ones with the butterfly keyboards.
In other news just seen the team note on factory gate prices falling in the UK, I think we're set for a much bigger fall in inflation than is being forecast. I also noticed the OBR has decided to ignore reality and doubled down on their already woefully incorrect economic doom forecasts as I predicted earlier this month.
Worth saying that I'm currently setting up my new Mac (a second hand 32gb MacBook Pro M1 Max 14") that I picked up for just under £1700 - yep it's a lot but way less than the new price and half the price of the M2 equivalent.
Likewise my new phone is an £800 iphone 13 max which cost £1250 new.
There are decent savings to be had if you are happy to accept slightly used.
Nah we get our stuff directly from Apple pre configured. It's just easier that way.
A sane policy for corporations not so great when you are spending post tax income
The M2 Air is incredible value IMO, anyone looking for a business laptop for themselves shouldn't bother with anything else and no messing about with Windows either which is a huge bonus.
In about 5 mins I had homebrew installed and then 5 mins later Git and then VS Code. Everything else like Slack and Zoom was preconfigured. With Windows I have to spend the first hour just getting rid of all of Dell's bullshit, installing Windows updates, installing the virus scanner, bugging the IT department because half of the updates didn't install and the laptop randomly restarted.
I'm honestly so glad to be out of the Windows ecosystem for good, 6 years ago I shifted to Mac for work purposes and when I started this current job I insisted on one rather than the standard Dell someone like me would get. All of the new hires are given Macs and as existing laptops died the Dells got replaced by Macs. It's completely shifted how we operate as a team because now we're script and development first rather than Excel first. I approved the budget for 23 14" M2 Pro laptops tonight, I think the team are going to be pretty jazzed tomorrow morning.
Having re-listened to (What's the Story) Morning Glory again, for the first time in a long time, I'm not convinced Liam Gallagher can sing.
I was massively into it at the time, but his extraneous drawling vocals on Wonderwall are, quite frankly, rather flat - and grate a bit - and I think Noel probably performs better on Don't Look Back in Anger.
At the time, I thought they sung as beautifully as Frank Sinatra, but I was an impressionable 90s teenager at the time.
I'm currently listening to The Beautiful South, which is one of my favourite bands. Last night I was surprised to realise that two former members, Heaton and Abbott, have had two consecutive Number 1 albums as a duo.
Particularly interesting as I really used to fancy Abbott.
I sort of like The Beautiful South, but there's a lot of musical snobbery around them - as if you've just admitted to liking Phil Collins.
Having re-listened to (What's the Story) Morning Glory again, for the first time in a long time, I'm not convinced Liam Gallagher can sing.
I was massively into it at the time, but his extraneous drawling vocals on Wonderwall are, quite frankly, rather flat - and grate a bit - and I think Noel probably performs better on Don't Look Back in Anger.
At the time, I thought they sung as beautifully as Frank Sinatra, but I was an impressionable 90s teenager at the time.
I'm currently listening to The Beautiful South, which is one of my favourite bands. Last night I was surprised to realise that two former members, Heaton and Abbott, have had two consecutive Number 1 albums as a duo.
Particularly interesting as I really used to fancy Abbott.
I sort of like The Beautiful South, but there's a lot of musical snobbery around them - as if you've just admitted to liking Phil Collins.
Not sure why.
Yeah, it’s ridiculous.
People like what they like.
Phil Collins is a great drummer and a good singer. I’d sooner listen to him than a boring xxxx like Paul Weller.
Got my Mac set up all nicely, it really is a world of difference. I think I'll budget upgrades for the whole team next FY, some of these poor sods are using i5 8GB ones with the butterfly keyboards.
In other news just seen the team note on factory gate prices falling in the UK, I think we're set for a much bigger fall in inflation than is being forecast. I also noticed the OBR has decided to ignore reality and doubled down on their already woefully incorrect economic doom forecasts as I predicted earlier this month.
Worth saying that I'm currently setting up my new Mac (a second hand 32gb MacBook Pro M1 Max 14") that I picked up for just under £1700 - yep it's a lot but way less than the new price and half the price of the M2 equivalent.
Likewise my new phone is an £800 iphone 13 max which cost £1250 new.
There are decent savings to be had if you are happy to accept slightly used.
Nah we get our stuff directly from Apple pre configured. It's just easier that way.
A sane policy for corporations not so great when you are spending post tax income
The M2 Air is incredible value IMO, anyone looking for a business laptop for themselves shouldn't bother with anything else and no messing about with Windows either which is a huge bonus.
In about 5 mins I had homebrew installed and then 5 mins later Git and then VS Code. Everything else like Slack and Zoom was preconfigured. With Windows I have to spend the first hour just getting rid of all of Dell's bullshit, installing Windows updates, installing the virus scanner, bugging the IT department because half of the updates didn't install and the laptop randomly restarted.
I'm honestly so glad to be out of the Windows ecosystem for good, 6 years ago I shifted to Mac for work purposes and when I started this current job I insisted on one rather than the standard Dell someone like me would get. All of the new hires are given Macs and as existing laptops died the Dells got replaced by Macs. It's completely shifted how we operate as a team because now we're script and development first rather than Excel first. I approved the budget for 23 14" M2 Pro laptops tonight, I think the team are going to be pretty jazzed tomorrow morning.
Not the base model M2 Air though....that has the neutered M.2 hard drive....have to get the one with at least the 512GB drive.
Agree that Starmer dodges issues, but not surprised that the modal person doesn't know what an opposition politician is doing, based on the equivalent poll for Sunak that also has a big lead for "Nothing / DK", well ahead of compulsory maths in #2.
Comments
that'll do it.
There’s a guy in downing street swears he's a good prime minister
Just like you swear to me that you’d be better, too
There’s a guy in downing street swears he's a good prime minister
But he’s a liar and I’m not sure about you
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/01/15/tories-huh-yeah-what-are-they-good-for-absolutely-nothing-uhh/
And one of the horses seems to be running towards the knacker's yard.
"A 2 horse race. One of the horses died. It's show jumping now..."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-25/uk-to-susidize-semiconductor-firms-in-bid-to-make-domestic-chips?leadSource=uverify wall
SKS's difficulty is one shared by everyone in serious politics: about the intractable issues what on earth would coherent, non- contradictory and contentful policy in election winning terms (not strap lines and not unicorns) look like on:
Brexit and its aftermath
Debt
Deficit
Cost of living
Energy prices
Interest rates
NHS right now
Police corruption
House prices and housing
Immigration
Social care
Tax.
Can anyone wonder why he has little to say? There is no holistic and consistent policy on these that, if promised, could win an election for anyone, however clever.
The strategy choice is Borisism (boosterism and contradiction) or SKSism - maximal silence.
Rishi’s strategy now is simply to play for time and to try to change the weather for spring 24.
It could very much happen, but at previous elections, I don't think there's been the perfect storm of circumstances, and the extremely negative sentiment towards the government, from voters who might even have voted Tory themselves previously.
Starmer doesn't have to be Blair for a sizeable Labour majority. I'd question how much people really know about what opposition leaders stand for, before they're actually elected.
One for those with longer memories: How does the general perception of Sunak right now, compare to the general perception of John Major in 1996?
That of the Tories won't.
That's about it for now.
We did not "end up " with Ajax.
They haven't delivered any yet.
In other news just seen the team note on factory gate prices falling in the UK, I think we're set for a much bigger fall in inflation than is being forecast. I also noticed the OBR has decided to ignore reality and doubled down on their already woefully incorrect economic doom forecasts as I predicted earlier this month.
Nice post, Mike. Quite clear.
Your dyspeptic Euromedia link for tonight is the Deutsche Welle report shown after Mr Scholz had said "yes" to Leopards for Ukraine, about how the French are going to have trouble sending Leclerc tanks to Ukraine because half of them are broken down.
And who said they did not do irony.
Unfortunately DW do not have that on a deep link afaics.
I'll go for 7.5% in April.
But there's really no mystery. It'll be New Labour without any money. Beats exhausted rancid Tories without any money hands down imo.
The lead is big enough that they can afford to lose some of it. And it's certainly better that they win a majority of 20 on a broad-based agenda that has gained public support than they get a majority of 100+ and only reveal their plans after the election.
Thre's only a downside for them to revealing their plans if they're going to be unpopular!
Or am I getting confused about which conspiracy I am taking part in, again?
For fucks sake, I can weld* a box straight. I can even cut steel to the fraction of mm. You use this 19th cent tech called a jig.....
*My welding is almost as shitty as the welding I saw on the Foxtrot that was parked in Sidney Harbour for years. Fucking hell....
"We are not mad Tankies, wanting to leave the EU (!), NATO, the space time continuum and join the Warsaw Pact and COMECON*. We are a bit bland, social democrats, plan on spending a bit more on health etc and not being Tories."
*At various Labour party conferences in the run up to the Longest Suicide Note, this was advocated by various speakers. Not obviously on hard drugs.
She was a successful governor of South Carolina, and has been a success at the UN.
"She and her husband regularly attend the United Methodist Church. She also attends Sikh services once or twice a year."
"Her husband is an officer in the South Carolina Army National Guard. During her gubernatorial term, he was sent in January 2013 on a year-long deployment to Afghanistan."
They have two children.
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikki_Haley
She can do arithmetic, unlike Biden, Trump, and Obama.
For the record: I do not yet have an opinion on whether she is value at the current odds. But I would mention this scenario, which I have been thinking about: It is at least possible that she might win a plurality in a three-way race against Trump and DeSantis -- which would be big, given the winner-take-all rules in some Republican contests.
(There are other Republicans who are, on the face of it, qualified to be president, for example, Larry Hogan of Maryland and Chris Sununu of New Hampshire.)
To turn that around, Sunak would have to have an undeniable, obvious success on each of them.
Also this morning a 5 way call between Sunak, Biden, Macron, Scholz and Meloni as part of allies close coordination of support for Ukraine
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1618285498325438467?t=H3UQ8y43K-N-P7zRIqv3xQ&s=19
I personally doubt that the US tanks will ever make it, or will sit in a corner of a warehouse if they do - but by then it will be a done thing.
I do wonder a bit how many working or repairable tanks the Bundeswehr has in its possession. As the current leading formation in the NATO Rapid Response formation they are reported to be using 1970s vintage Marders as their IFV rather than the more recent Pumas, as the latter are kaputt.
https://www.politico.eu/article/tanks-kaput-germany-military-defense-minister-christine-lambrecht/
“Even with the best preparations, the question of the vehicles’ readiness has become a game of lottery,” Major General Ruprecht von Butler wrote his boss, according to a copy of the email quoted by Der Spiegel over the weekend.
During an exercise this month to prepare a Bundeswehr tank brigade for inclusion in NATO’s “high readiness” response force, all 18 of the modern German infantry fighting vehicles failed, von Butler wrote.
The present and the condition? A colorful "Free Tibet" bumper sticker, which Cook can have if he will promise to display it prominently.
(This is the start of a small campaign in which I suggest to leaders and celebrities that they are too close to "Emperor" Xi's regime. I have three bumper stickers, and don't expect to run out of them by the end of this year, assuming I send out similar letters once a month.)
However RINO Moderates only make up about 10 to 20% of today's GOP at most, so as they will be Haley's main backers how does she win even a 3 way race?
She's value for 2028 when a Trumpite has been spanked more than a submissive paying a dominatrix by the lash. Even there, however, she wouldn't be favourite.
The sad part is although she's far from perfect I think she'd actually be quite a good president.
Although comparing Corbyn to Zahawi would be the ultimate in whataboutery.
I'd expect the governing party to get a more positive policy response in these word clouds, because they are in power and need to justify what they have done with that power and why they deserve more time.
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.....
{fades to madness}
Likewise my new phone is an £800 iphone 13 max which cost £1250 new.
There are decent savings to be had if you are happy to accept slightly used.
Had to replace the batteries as well, which was another hundred, but it works very well indeed.
Would love to upgrade the ram on my Mac mini but some dull bugger soldered it in place.
In a different world, it wouldn't work, but most elections boil down to "steady as she goes" vs. "time for a change". The "hold on to nurse" vs. "something worse" (which ultimately scuppered Corbyn) is ultimately secondary.
And what any incoming government will be hoping is that, even if their policies are unpopular at first, they will bring about improvements that are popular five years down the line. It depends if they judge the country is ready to knowingly take the nasty medicine, or whether they will clench their mouths shut if told in advance.
LAB: 49% (=)
CON: 24% (-5)
LDM: 9% (+1)
RFM: 7% (+3)
GRN: 4% (=)
SNP: 3% (-1)
Via @focaldataHQ
, 17-18 Jan.
Changes w/ 28-30 Oct.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1618288655218638848
?????
potholes
are they still going?
Birds of a feather flock together?
"The Philadelphia Inquirer obtained a photo Trump took earlier this month at his West Palm Beach golf course, wherein he gave the camera a thumbs-up alongside Joseph “Skinny Joey” Merlino. As the newspaper points out, Merlino was a Philadelphia/South Jersey mobster with ties to violent crime who has repeatedly gone to prison on racketeering and illegal gambling charges."
(Links omitted.)
source:https://www.mediaite.com/trump/trump-campaign-claims-ignorance-after-ex-president-takes-photo-with-former-philly-mobster/
Free the Chagos Islands?
"Two Labs for every Con."
Andersen glued herself on to a metal bar on the side of the vehicle and Curren glued herself to one of its rear wheels, while Davies managed to evade a police cordon to get beneath and glue himself to its fuel tank. The vehicle was delayed for more than four hours while specialist police teams were deployed to unstick and bring them down.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/25/olympic-gold-medal-winner-among-activists-freed-in-xr-protest-case
What is a
womanvehicle.....Do I just reverse Labour and Con around because that's the actual result? Am I doing it right?
Surprised "Remainer" or similar didn't figure in the word cloud.
I'll get me coat
I was massively into it at the time, but his extraneous drawling vocals on Wonderwall are, quite frankly, rather flat - and grate a bit - and I think Noel probably performs better on Don't Look Back in Anger.
At the time, I thought they sung as beautifully as Frank Sinatra, but I was an impressionable 90s teenager at the time.
Starmer is no Blair, and that is both good and bad.
The reasoning strikes me as peculiar. By that logic a DMU might not be a vehicle.
Particularly interesting as I really used to fancy Abbott.
I asked my Dad about it, and he said Andy Cole scored 40 goals one season with shin splints.
In about 5 mins I had homebrew installed and then 5 mins later Git and then VS Code. Everything else like Slack and Zoom was preconfigured. With Windows I have to spend the first hour just getting rid of all of Dell's bullshit, installing Windows updates, installing the virus scanner, bugging the IT department because half of the updates didn't install and the laptop randomly restarted.
I'm honestly so glad to be out of the Windows ecosystem for good, 6 years ago I shifted to Mac for work purposes and when I started this current job I insisted on one rather than the standard Dell someone like me would get. All of the new hires are given Macs and as existing laptops died the Dells got replaced by Macs. It's completely shifted how we operate as a team because now we're script and development first rather than Excel first. I approved the budget for 23 14" M2 Pro laptops tonight, I think the team are going to be pretty jazzed tomorrow morning.
Not sure why.
Which I think is poor for four.
People like what they like.
Phil Collins is a great drummer and a good singer. I’d sooner listen to him than a boring xxxx like Paul Weller.
https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1618167177554583553