Le Pen is 2nd fave. I’d have her as slight favourite. I reckon by 2026 the French will be thinking, Ah fuck it, give her a go, why not?
She’s running the Opposition in the French Parliament and doing it with some discipline. I don’t see a strong coherent rival to her
But of course it is years away….
Le Pen wants France to return to being outside the NATO command structure, so if she were to win the presidency tomorrow the "Bad Germany for not sending tanks to fight Russia" brigade would be able to chant about French cowardice, which they would probably enjoy even more. (Add in some lazy Italians or Spaniards and they'd be in seventh heaven.) But as you say, 2027 is a very long time away.
If France retreated from the fight against Russia they would be cowards. Just like the UK would be if they elected Corbyn and did the same thing.
France has already been fairly feeble in its response to the war. Not a major military contributor. And they’ve actually taken fewer Ukrainian refugees (IIRC) than the UK despite being nearer and on the continent etc. Germany has taken 10 times the refugees
But Macron, fair play to him, is good at looking vigorous and important and talks the talk even if he doesn’t quite walk the walk
I remember him vigorously arguing for Putin to have a way out. Weak. But not as weak as Le Pen.
Le Pen is 2nd fave. I’d have her as slight favourite. I reckon by 2026 the French will be thinking, Ah fuck it, give her a go, why not?
She’s running the Opposition in the French Parliament and doing it with some discipline. I don’t see a strong coherent rival to her
But of course it is years away….
2002 - Jean Marie Le Pen - 18% 2017 - Marine Le Pen - 34% 2022 - Marine Le Pen - 42%
2022 definitely felt more significant than her 8% rise would suggest, due to the legislative election breakthrough. They only got 8 seats in 2017 and 89 in 2022.
The problem with the "president's party" En Marche is what will happen to it when EM isn't the president. It could just disappear in a puff.
I do enjoy some of the straightforwardness of French politics as detailed on wikipedia.
The Union of the Right and Centre (French: Union de la droite et du centre; UDC) is a term used in France to designate an electoral alliance between the parties of the right and of the centre.
None of this 'Party X is called the Liberal Party but is actually a Conservative Party' stuff you see in some places.
Edit: It's remarkable where the Republican and Socialist candidates finished in the last presidential - under 5 and under 2% respectively.
I see I am out of date and En Marche have rebranded as Renaissance. They went from EM to REM to RE. The logo for their deputies in the national assembly:
Le Pen is 2nd fave. I’d have her as slight favourite. I reckon by 2026 the French will be thinking, Ah fuck it, give her a go, why not?
She’s running the Opposition in the French Parliament and doing it with some discipline. I don’t see a strong coherent rival to her
But of course it is years away….
2002 - Jean Marie Le Pen - 18% 2017 - Marine Le Pen - 34% 2022 - Marine Le Pen - 42%
2022 definitely felt more significant than her 8% rise would suggest, due to the legislative election breakthrough. They only got 8 seats in 2017 and 89 in 2022.
The problem with the "president's party" En Marche is what will happen to it when EM isn't the president. It could just disappear in a puff.
I do enjoy some of the straightforwardness of French politics as detailed on wikipedia.
The Union of the Right and Centre (French: Union de la droite et du centre; UDC) is a term used in France to designate an electoral alliance between the parties of the right and of the centre.
None of this 'Party X is called the Liberal Party but is actually a Conservative Party' stuff you see in some places.
Edit: It's remarkable where the Republican and Socialist candidates finished in the last presidential - under 5 and under 2% respectively.
I see I am out of date and En Marche have rebranded as Renaissance. They went from EM to REM to RE. The logo for their deputies in the national assembly:
Surely they are 600 years out of date?
Yes they are. And stop calling me Shirley.
If there is a whiff of progress in the air, they should at least see off Parti pour la défense de la France médiévale.
Incidentally, anyone seen Medieval on Netflix?
You are only supposed to knock their bloody heads off. 😆
What most observers see: "A man who only acts when there is no other way. That comes at a cost: of alienating friends and allies internationally, irritating his own coalition, and being forever late."
I'd add: Scholz promises "Keine Alleingänge!" But his style of communication says the opposite.
It’s a shame. I feel like there’s an opportunity here though. For French leadership of Europe. Cometh the hour, cometh the Macron. Allez les bleus.
It's worse than that. One thing for Scholz not to send tanks; quite another to actively block several European allies from doing so. It is as though it's German policy deliberately to prolong the war.
What most observers see: "A man who only acts when there is no other way. That comes at a cost: of alienating friends and allies internationally, irritating his own coalition, and being forever late."
I'd add: Scholz promises "Keine Alleingänge!" But his style of communication says the opposite.
It’s a shame. I feel like there’s an opportunity here though. For French leadership of Europe. Cometh the hour, cometh the Macron. Allez les bleus.
It's worse than that. One thing for Scholz not to send tanks; quite another to actively block several European allies from doing so. It is as though it's German policy deliberately to prolong the war.
Why would it be German policy to deliberately prolong the war? You usually make more intelligent comments.
It's strange how public opinion sometimes moves in the precise opposite direction than what "experts" expect.
We were told that the Gender Recognition Bill was a trap - deliberately get the UK Government to block it and that will boost the case for independence.
Well today Survation has Independence at Yes 46, No 54.
Now we know the Gender Recognition Bill is unpopular in Scotland - so might it be that Scots are thinking it's actually a good thing being in the UK - as the UK Government is able to block this legislation they don't want.
And, crucially, if they weren't in the UK, what other crazy (and much more serious) things might the Scottish Government do which couldn't then be blocked?
Polling carried about before the UK government blocked Gender Recognition Bill.
What most observers see: "A man who only acts when there is no other way. That comes at a cost: of alienating friends and allies internationally, irritating his own coalition, and being forever late."
I'd add: Scholz promises "Keine Alleingänge!" But his style of communication says the opposite.
It’s a shame. I feel like there’s an opportunity here though. For French leadership of Europe. Cometh the hour, cometh the Macron. Allez les bleus.
It's worse than that. One thing for Scholz not to send tanks; quite another to actively block several European allies from doing so. It is as though it's German policy deliberately to prolong the war.
Why would it be German policy to deliberately prolong the war? You usually make more intelligent comments.
Indeed. Policy seems to be entirely beyond Scholz.
Dame Anne Gloag, the founder of stagecoach, along with three others charged with human trafficking.
"It is deeply ironic that Dame Ann actually funds an Eastern European charity called the Open Door Foundation whose job it is to stop the trafficking of poor women into sex crimes.
What most observers see: "A man who only acts when there is no other way. That comes at a cost: of alienating friends and allies internationally, irritating his own coalition, and being forever late."
I'd add: Scholz promises "Keine Alleingänge!" But his style of communication says the opposite.
It’s a shame. I feel like there’s an opportunity here though. For French leadership of Europe. Cometh the hour, cometh the Macron. Allez les bleus.
It's worse than that. One thing for Scholz not to send tanks; quite another to actively block several European allies from doing so. It is as though it's German policy deliberately to prolong the war.
Why would it be German policy to deliberately prolong the war? You usually make more intelligent comments.
“It is as though” - yes, it makes no sense to me, either. It’s been suggested elsewhere that the policy is in favour of an extended stalemate so that Ukraine is obliged to negotiate, but that too seems absurd.
Aye, the blues are doomed. Partly unforced errors, partly due to difficult times, but a lot of it is just the elastic of office which grows more taut over time before snapping back. 'Time for a change' is a winning slogan, sooner or later.
It's strange how public opinion sometimes moves in the precise opposite direction than what "experts" expect.
We were told that the Gender Recognition Bill was a trap - deliberately get the UK Government to block it and that will boost the case for independence.
Well today Survation has Independence at Yes 46, No 54.
Now we know the Gender Recognition Bill is unpopular in Scotland - so might it be that Scots are thinking it's actually a good thing being in the UK - as the UK Government is able to block this legislation they don't want.
And, crucially, if they weren't in the UK, what other crazy (and much more serious) things might the Scottish Government do which couldn't then be blocked?
If the next few years see the FPTP bubbles of the Tories and SNP burst we’ll be none the worst off.
If the SNP command 50% of Scottish votes then great, give them 50% of seats. Not almost all, with weird tactical voting in the remainder.
As subsamples are all the rage today:
SNP 57% SLab 27% Grn 5% SCon 5% SLD 4% Ref 2%
Pro-independence parties 62% British nationalist parties 38%
More than three years after malign fun-fur mascot Boris Johnson first gibbered out the catchphrase, we finally have incontrovertible evidence of what “levelling up” actually is. For its duration, Johnson’s government had a flagship policy that it couldn’t have defined even if it hadn’t been drunk on the contents of a wheelie suitcase. Levelling up now turns out to be a sort of inter-constituency Squid Game, in which MPs who voted for various stripes of self-harm are now forced into trial-by-combat against each other in the hope of appealing to the caprices of shadowy gamesmaster Michael Gove. Arguably there’s an ironic wit to the format – a sort of handout for the anti-handout party, designed solely to inadequately mitigate the effects of cuts made largely by that same party. The players seem quite upset about it now, but are of course free to terminate the game if the majority votes to do so.
Or as one Conservative MP who missed out fumed yesterday: “I’ve got shops without roofs and whole streets of boarded-up houses and some people are getting cash for adventure golf.” Which is, by coincidence, exactly the picture in the political glossary next to the phrase “sunlit uplands”. Another Tory MP described the policy delivery as “a fuck-up of epic proportions”, casting it as the Stalingrad of not securing a planetarium for your northern marginal.
More than three years after malign fun-fur mascot Boris Johnson first gibbered out the catchphrase, we finally have incontrovertible evidence of what “levelling up” actually is. For its duration, Johnson’s government had a flagship policy that it couldn’t have defined even if it hadn’t been drunk on the contents of a wheelie suitcase. Levelling up now turns out to be a sort of inter-constituency Squid Game, in which MPs who voted for various stripes of self-harm are now forced into trial-by-combat against each other in the hope of appealing to the caprices of shadowy gamesmaster Michael Gove. Arguably there’s an ironic wit to the format – a sort of handout for the anti-handout party, designed solely to inadequately mitigate the effects of cuts made largely by that same party. The players seem quite upset about it now, but are of course free to terminate the game if the majority votes to do so.
Or as one Conservative MP who missed out fumed yesterday: “I’ve got shops without roofs and whole streets of boarded-up houses and some people are getting cash for adventure golf.” Which is, by coincidence, exactly the picture in the political glossary next to the phrase “sunlit uplands”. Another Tory MP described the policy delivery as “a fuck-up of epic proportions”, casting it as the Stalingrad of not securing a planetarium for your northern marginal.
What most observers see: "A man who only acts when there is no other way. That comes at a cost: of alienating friends and allies internationally, irritating his own coalition, and being forever late."
I'd add: Scholz promises "Keine Alleingänge!" But his style of communication says the opposite.
It’s a shame. I feel like there’s an opportunity here though. For French leadership of Europe. Cometh the hour, cometh the Macron. Allez les bleus.
It's worse than that. One thing for Scholz not to send tanks; quite another to actively block several European allies from doing so. It is as though it's German policy deliberately to prolong the war.
Why would it be German policy to deliberately prolong the war? You usually make more intelligent comments.
Some posters have been suggesting that the NATOs approach is to prolong the war to bleed Russia dry. I don't think that's correct for various reasons, but who know what Scholz is 'thinking'.
The German government's position is utterly baffling and inexplicable from what we know, especially as it seems much of the German population is in favour of sending the Leo2's.
How do you explain the decision to block other countries sending Leo 2's? (Let alone the decision not to send German ones)?
So 23% of 2019 Conservative voters are now DK compared to just 11% who have switched to Labour, with another 11% who have switched to RefUK too.
5% of 2019 LDs though have switched to Sunak's Tories, so expect Sunak to be doing better ìn the bluewall than the redwall
I disagree. I think that’s complete wacky psephology. Or anti Sunak spin - build unrealistic targets for Rishi now, to call him a failure in May is your game isn’t it?
You still reckon Tories getting 29% of votes and the libdems 12% in the locals, in 103 sleeps time?
Yes. Will be few RefUK candidates and the seats are mainly in the English shires
Can we please be clear - are you talking actual votes cast or National Equivalent Vote Share?
Hope this clear. After 2019 count Tories won 3,564 councillors, control of 93 councils 30 more than Labour, and got 2,985,959 votes which equated to a healthy mid term 28% Projected national equivalent.
Correct me where wrong, HY has the Tories getting a better share now 29%, the Lib Dems on just 12, on basis he see’s in polls Rishi doing better in Blue Wall than Boris.
That’s truly bonkers innit? 🤷♀️
Why is an important local Tory like HY not doing normal expectation management, instead talking up a better than last time success for Rishi than last year results? 🤷♀️
If any of those 2,985,959 voters no longer identify as Con voter and feeling disgruntled, and up to give a slap like they been doing in historic by elections, there’s so many options for them isn’t there?
Healthy? The 2019 local elections saw the Tories lose over 1000 councillors and 44 councils. Their worst locals since 1995.
Rishi is lucky they have little further to fall voteshare and seat and council loss wise.
That might however be one challenge to which Rishi can rise?
So 23% of 2019 Conservative voters are now DK compared to just 11% who have switched to Labour, with another 11% who have switched to RefUK too.
5% of 2019 LDs though have switched to Sunak's Tories, so expect Sunak to be doing better ìn the bluewall than the redwall
I disagree. I think that’s complete wacky psephology. Or anti Sunak spin - build unrealistic targets for Rishi now, to call him a failure in May is your game isn’t it?
You still reckon Tories getting 29% of votes and the libdems 12% in the locals, in 103 sleeps time?
Yes. Will be few RefUK candidates and the seats are mainly in the English shires
Can we please be clear - are you talking actual votes cast or National Equivalent Vote Share?
Hope this clear. After 2019 count Tories won 3,564 councillors, control of 93 councils 30 more than Labour, and got 2,985,959 votes which equated to a healthy mid term 28% Projected national equivalent.
Correct me where wrong, HY has the Tories getting a better share now 29%, the Lib Dems on just 12, on basis he see’s in polls Rishi doing better in Blue Wall than Boris.
That’s truly bonkers innit? 🤷♀️
Why is an important local Tory like HY not doing normal expectation management, instead talking up a better than last time success for Rishi than last year results? 🤷♀️
If any of those 2,985,959 voters no longer identify as Con voter and feeling disgruntled, and up to give a slap like they been doing in historic by elections, there’s so many options for them isn’t there?
Healthy? The 2019 local elections saw the Tories lose over 1000 councillors and 44 councils. Their worst locals since 1995.
Rishi is lucky they have little further to fall voteshare and seat and council loss wise.
That might however be one challenge to which Rishi can rise?
Besides, those changes were compared with the 2015 local elections, which were pretty good for the Conservatives (+500 councillors) and pretty bad for the Lib Dems (-600 councillors). I guess we can all work out why.
It may not happen, but there's still plenty of room for a(nother) Terrible Night For The Tories.
What most observers see: "A man who only acts when there is no other way. That comes at a cost: of alienating friends and allies internationally, irritating his own coalition, and being forever late."
I'd add: Scholz promises "Keine Alleingänge!" But his style of communication says the opposite.
It’s a shame. I feel like there’s an opportunity here though. For French leadership of Europe. Cometh the hour, cometh the Macron. Allez les bleus.
It's worse than that. One thing for Scholz not to send tanks; quite another to actively block several European allies from doing so. It is as though it's German policy deliberately to prolong the war.
Why would it be German policy to deliberately prolong the war? You usually make more intelligent comments.
The reporting on is just as uninformative, though this is another account which makes it sound as though the new defence minister is not the one making the decision.
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2023/01/501_344025.html … Germany acknowledged there had been no resolution. But, speaking to reporters outside the conference hall, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said, ''We will make our decisions as soon as possible.''
He said he had ordered the ministry to look into Germany's tank stocks so he can be prepared for a possible green light and be able to ''act immediately.'' Pistorius added that Germany will ''balance all the pros and contras before we decide things like that. . I am very sure that there will be a decision in the short term, but I don't know how the decision will look.''
The issue, however, has grown increasingly complicated.
The U.S. has resisted providing its own M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, citing extensive and complex maintenance and logistical challenges with the high-tech vehicles. Washington believes it would be more productive to send German Leopards since many allies have them and Ukrainian troops would need less training than on the more difficult Abrams.
U.S. and German officials have given mixed signals about whether the U.S. and German decisions are linked.
A U.S. official familiar with White House thinking said Germany has expressed hesitance to providing its tanks unless the U.S. sends Abrams. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private Biden administration deliberations, added that there was some bewilderment in the administration over the German position, since Britain, another NATO ally, has already agreed to provide Challenger 2 tanks.
Steffen Hebestreit, a spokesman for the German government, denied that Berlin has demanded that the U.S. supply Abrams tanks alongside any shipment of Leopards...
And none of this gives any reason, let alone a coherent one, as to why Germany would veto third countries sending tanks. That was previously a matter of conjecture, but it seems very clear this week that is the case.
Charging for GP appointments and A&E visits is “crucial” to the survival of the NHS, Sajid Javid has declared. The former health secretary says that without radical and controversial reform, the principles of the NHS “cannot survive much longer” as patients face lengthening waits for... https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sajid-javid-backs-fee-to-see-gp-qjspklvxt
He’s an idiot.
Clearly Javid has worked out that if it was just GPs starting to charge you’d get everyone piling into A and E so he doubled down and decided it would be a good idea to expand the charge to A and E . Ignoring the whole point of the NHS ! The way to ensure the survival of the NHS is to remove the Tories from power .
So 23% of 2019 Conservative voters are now DK compared to just 11% who have switched to Labour, with another 11% who have switched to RefUK too.
5% of 2019 LDs though have switched to Sunak's Tories, so expect Sunak to be doing better ìn the bluewall than the redwall
I disagree. I think that’s complete wacky psephology. Or anti Sunak spin - build unrealistic targets for Rishi now, to call him a failure in May is your game isn’t it?
You still reckon Tories getting 29% of votes and the libdems 12% in the locals, in 103 sleeps time?
Yes. Will be few RefUK candidates and the seats are mainly in the English shires
Can we please be clear - are you talking actual votes cast or National Equivalent Vote Share?
Hope this clear. After 2019 count Tories won 3,564 councillors, control of 93 councils 30 more than Labour, and got 2,985,959 votes which equated to a healthy mid term 28% Projected national equivalent.
Correct me where wrong, HY has the Tories getting a better share now 29%, the Lib Dems on just 12, on basis he see’s in polls Rishi doing better in Blue Wall than Boris.
That’s truly bonkers innit? 🤷♀️
Why is an important local Tory like HY not doing normal expectation management, instead talking up a better than last time success for Rishi than last year results? 🤷♀️
If any of those 2,985,959 voters no longer identify as Con voter and feeling disgruntled, and up to give a slap like they been doing in historic by elections, there’s so many options for them isn’t there?
Healthy? The 2019 local elections saw the Tories lose over 1000 councillors and 44 councils. Their worst locals since 1995.
Rishi is lucky they have little further to fall voteshare and seat and council loss wise.
That might however be one challenge to which Rishi can rise?
Besides, those changes were compared with the 2015 local elections, which were pretty good for the Conservatives (+500 councillors) and pretty bad for the Lib Dems (-600 councillors). I guess we can all work out why.
It may not happen, but there's still plenty of room for a(nother) Terrible Night For The Tories.
They might even pick up a few LD seats in councils the LDs took in 2019 which are now unpopular, even if they lose seats to Labour.
Anyway it is all about swing, the fact the Tories got just 28% in May 2019 means the swing against the Tories will be lower than in May 2019 in terms of lost voteshare and Sunak's team can spin accordingly
More than three years after malign fun-fur mascot Boris Johnson first gibbered out the catchphrase, we finally have incontrovertible evidence of what “levelling up” actually is. For its duration, Johnson’s government had a flagship policy that it couldn’t have defined even if it hadn’t been drunk on the contents of a wheelie suitcase. Levelling up now turns out to be a sort of inter-constituency Squid Game, in which MPs who voted for various stripes of self-harm are now forced into trial-by-combat against each other in the hope of appealing to the caprices of shadowy gamesmaster Michael Gove. Arguably there’s an ironic wit to the format – a sort of handout for the anti-handout party, designed solely to inadequately mitigate the effects of cuts made largely by that same party. The players seem quite upset about it now, but are of course free to terminate the game if the majority votes to do so.
Or as one Conservative MP who missed out fumed yesterday: “I’ve got shops without roofs and whole streets of boarded-up houses and some people are getting cash for adventure golf.” Which is, by coincidence, exactly the picture in the political glossary next to the phrase “sunlit uplands”. Another Tory MP described the policy delivery as “a fuck-up of epic proportions”, casting it as the Stalingrad of not securing a planetarium for your northern marginal.
Marina Hyde does have a great turn of phrase. A good sting in the tail in this bit:
"In general, though, do you care for Sunak’s tone? He seems to have just the two speeds: dewy-eyed prefect delivering a supposedly inspirational speech to much, much younger children; and high-financier unable to fully hide his impatience that he should be required to answer questions from lesser mortals. Neither seems immediately obviously likely to endear him to the British public. Perhaps he’s slightly helped by being up against Keir Starmer, who delivers every statement like his next one is going to be “And had you thought of a preferred wood for the casket?”"
Le Pen is 2nd fave. I’d have her as slight favourite. I reckon by 2026 the French will be thinking, Ah fuck it, give her a go, why not?
She’s running the Opposition in the French Parliament and doing it with some discipline. I don’t see a strong coherent rival to her
But of course it is years away….
Melenchon leads the French opposition and French left and will also have a shot, Le Pen's block is third.
However don't forget as Macron cannot run again some centre right voters who voted for him and his liberal party will return to Les Republicains in 2027. The French centre right have been out of power in Paris for 11 years now, if they pick a decent candidate like Xavier Bertrand he could win and beat Melenchon or Le Pen in the run off. En Marche will collapse once Macron goes I think
More than three years after malign fun-fur mascot Boris Johnson first gibbered out the catchphrase, we finally have incontrovertible evidence of what “levelling up” actually is. For its duration, Johnson’s government had a flagship policy that it couldn’t have defined even if it hadn’t been drunk on the contents of a wheelie suitcase. Levelling up now turns out to be a sort of inter-constituency Squid Game, in which MPs who voted for various stripes of self-harm are now forced into trial-by-combat against each other in the hope of appealing to the caprices of shadowy gamesmaster Michael Gove. Arguably there’s an ironic wit to the format – a sort of handout for the anti-handout party, designed solely to inadequately mitigate the effects of cuts made largely by that same party. The players seem quite upset about it now, but are of course free to terminate the game if the majority votes to do so.
Or as one Conservative MP who missed out fumed yesterday: “I’ve got shops without roofs and whole streets of boarded-up houses and some people are getting cash for adventure golf.” Which is, by coincidence, exactly the picture in the political glossary next to the phrase “sunlit uplands”. Another Tory MP described the policy delivery as “a fuck-up of epic proportions”, casting it as the Stalingrad of not securing a planetarium for your northern marginal.
Le Pen is 2nd fave. I’d have her as slight favourite. I reckon by 2026 the French will be thinking, Ah fuck it, give her a go, why not?
She’s running the Opposition in the French Parliament and doing it with some discipline. I don’t see a strong coherent rival to her
But of course it is years away….
Melenchon leads the French opposition and French left and will also have a shot, Le Pen's block is third.
However don't forget as Macron cannot run again some centre right voters who voted for him and his liberal party will return to Les Republicains in 2027. The French centre right have been out of power in Paris for 11 years now, if they pick a decent candidate like Xavier Bertrand he could win and beat Melenchon or Le Pen in the run off. En Marche will collapse once Macron goes I think
Le Pen has gained votes as the party has tacked centrally, away from previous Europhobia etc. If she ever wins (and I have my doubts) then it will be by becoming a mainstream conservative.
Le Pen is 2nd fave. I’d have her as slight favourite. I reckon by 2026 the French will be thinking, Ah fuck it, give her a go, why not?
She’s running the Opposition in the French Parliament and doing it with some discipline. I don’t see a strong coherent rival to her
But of course it is years away….
Melenchon leads the French opposition and French left and will also have a shot, Le Pen's block is third.
However don't forget as Macron cannot run again some centre right voters who voted for him and his liberal party will return to Les Republicains in 2027. The French centre right have been out of power in Paris for 11 years now, if they pick a decent candidate like Xavier Bertrand he could win and beat Melenchon or Le Pen in the run off. En Marche will collapse once Macron goes I think
Le Pen has gained votes as the party has tacked centrally, away from previous Europhobia etc. If she ever wins (and I have my doubts) then it will be by becoming a mainstream conservative.
No Le Pen is almost socialist on economics, just anti immigration and anti Woke too
It's strange how public opinion sometimes moves in the precise opposite direction than what "experts" expect.
We were told that the Gender Recognition Bill was a trap - deliberately get the UK Government to block it and that will boost the case for independence.
Well today Survation has Independence at Yes 46, No 54.
Now we know the Gender Recognition Bill is unpopular in Scotland - so might it be that Scots are thinking it's actually a good thing being in the UK - as the UK Government is able to block this legislation they don't want.
And, crucially, if they weren't in the UK, what other crazy (and much more serious) things might the Scottish Government do which couldn't then be blocked?
If the next few years see the FPTP bubbles of the Tories and SNP burst we’ll be none the worst off.
If the SNP command 50% of Scottish votes then great, give them 50% of seats. Not almost all, with weird tactical voting in the remainder.
As subsamples are all the rage today:
SNP 57% SLab 27% Grn 5% SCon 5% SLD 4% Ref 2%
Pro-independence parties 62% British nationalist parties 38%
PeoplePolling/GB News; 18 January
Bit late for Britnats to start whining about FPTP when the two largest parties (at present) at Westminster have been its fervent proponents since King John had a spot on his bum.
Le Pen is 2nd fave. I’d have her as slight favourite. I reckon by 2026 the French will be thinking, Ah fuck it, give her a go, why not?
She’s running the Opposition in the French Parliament and doing it with some discipline. I don’t see a strong coherent rival to her
But of course it is years away….
Melenchon leads the French opposition and French left and will also have a shot, Le Pen's block is third.
However don't forget as Macron cannot run again some centre right voters who voted for him and his liberal party will return to Les Republicains in 2027. The French centre right have been out of power in Paris for 11 years now, if they pick a decent candidate like Xavier Bertrand he could win and beat Melenchon or Le Pen in the run off. En Marche will collapse once Macron goes I think
Le Pen has gained votes as the party has tacked centrally, away from previous Europhobia etc. If she ever wins (and I have my doubts) then it will be by becoming a mainstream conservative.
No Le Pen is almost socialist on economics, just anti immigration and anti Woke too
Yes, but to win she has to tone down rhetoric on all those things, and to win votes from Macron and what's left of the Republicans. Otherwise she will remain a serial loser.
Just like if the Tories want to win again they need to shift away from Brexitism.
How do you explain the decision to block other countries sending Leo 2's? (Let alone the decision not to send German ones)?
Because German capital, at whose pleasure OS serves, doesn't want to be on the Kremlin's shit list when the SMO is over and the sanctions are inevitably lifted. There will be a great deal of pent up demand for the products of DMG Mori, etc.
They are linking it to Abrams in the firm and enduring belief that the US will never give them to Ukraine so Germany will never have to sanction the transfer of Leopards. The US does, 100%, want to prolong the conflict as long as possible, or at least until the 2024 election campaign gets into full swing, because it weakens Russia and erodes the strategic autonomy of Europe.
The 'complexity' argument regarding Abrams is specious. They delivered M1 to Iraq for fuck's sake.
How do you explain the decision to block other countries sending Leo 2's? (Let alone the decision not to send German ones)?
Because German capital, at whose pleasure OS serves, doesn't want to be on the Kremlin's shit list when the SMO is over and the sanctions are inevitably lifted. There will be a great deal of pent up demand for the products of DMG Mori, etc.
They are linking it to Abrams in the firm and enduring belief that the US will never give them to Ukraine so Germany will never have to sanction the transfer of Leopards. The US does, 100%, want to prolong the conflict as long as possible, or at least until the 2024 election campaign gets into full swing, because it weakens Russia and erodes the strategic autonomy of Europe.
The 'complexity' argument regarding Abrams is specious. They delivered M1 to Iraq for fuck's sake.
I don't think the logistics issue is trivial, for example the fuel issue, which is much less an issue in Iraq. An M1 tank brigade is the spearhead, but does need a long stick of support.
More than three years after malign fun-fur mascot Boris Johnson first gibbered out the catchphrase, we finally have incontrovertible evidence of what “levelling up” actually is. For its duration, Johnson’s government had a flagship policy that it couldn’t have defined even if it hadn’t been drunk on the contents of a wheelie suitcase. Levelling up now turns out to be a sort of inter-constituency Squid Game, in which MPs who voted for various stripes of self-harm are now forced into trial-by-combat against each other in the hope of appealing to the caprices of shadowy gamesmaster Michael Gove. Arguably there’s an ironic wit to the format – a sort of handout for the anti-handout party, designed solely to inadequately mitigate the effects of cuts made largely by that same party. The players seem quite upset about it now, but are of course free to terminate the game if the majority votes to do so.
Or as one Conservative MP who missed out fumed yesterday: “I’ve got shops without roofs and whole streets of boarded-up houses and some people are getting cash for adventure golf.” Which is, by coincidence, exactly the picture in the political glossary next to the phrase “sunlit uplands”. Another Tory MP described the policy delivery as “a fuck-up of epic proportions”, casting it as the Stalingrad of not securing a planetarium for your northern marginal.
Refurbishing (or replacing) these boarded up homes would deliver the cheap housing we need (and claim to want) as well as levelling up.
If there were well paying secure jobs then those boarded up houses would be fixed or replaced in a trice. That is what "Levelling Up" needs to do.
Fixing those houses would create well paying secure jobs in the building trade, and the influx of people into said new houses would also increase economic activity (unless they were used as dumping grounds). It is a virtuous circle.
Charging for GP appointments and A&E visits is “crucial” to the survival of the NHS, Sajid Javid has declared. The former health secretary says that without radical and controversial reform, the principles of the NHS “cannot survive much longer” as patients face lengthening waits for... https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sajid-javid-backs-fee-to-see-gp-qjspklvxt
He’s an idiot.
Clearly Javid has worked out that if it was just GPs starting to charge you’d get everyone piling into A and E so he doubled down and decided it would be a good idea to expand the charge to A and E . Ignoring the whole point of the NHS ! The way to ensure the survival of the NHS is to remove the Tories from power .
What utter one eyed bollocks
I'm not saying you are wrong, but can you say why it is one eyed bollocks rather than just saying that otherwise it isn't constructive. The statement made by @nico679 seems to have a logical construct associated with his opinion.
More than three years after malign fun-fur mascot Boris Johnson first gibbered out the catchphrase, we finally have incontrovertible evidence of what “levelling up” actually is. For its duration, Johnson’s government had a flagship policy that it couldn’t have defined even if it hadn’t been drunk on the contents of a wheelie suitcase. Levelling up now turns out to be a sort of inter-constituency Squid Game, in which MPs who voted for various stripes of self-harm are now forced into trial-by-combat against each other in the hope of appealing to the caprices of shadowy gamesmaster Michael Gove. Arguably there’s an ironic wit to the format – a sort of handout for the anti-handout party, designed solely to inadequately mitigate the effects of cuts made largely by that same party. The players seem quite upset about it now, but are of course free to terminate the game if the majority votes to do so.
Or as one Conservative MP who missed out fumed yesterday: “I’ve got shops without roofs and whole streets of boarded-up houses and some people are getting cash for adventure golf.” Which is, by coincidence, exactly the picture in the political glossary next to the phrase “sunlit uplands”. Another Tory MP described the policy delivery as “a fuck-up of epic proportions”, casting it as the Stalingrad of not securing a planetarium for your northern marginal.
Refurbishing (or replacing) these boarded up homes would deliver the cheap housing we need (and claim to want) as well as levelling up.
If there were well paying secure jobs then those boarded up houses would be fixed or replaced in a trice. That is what "Levelling Up" needs to do.
Fixing those houses would create well paying secure jobs in the building trade, and the influx of people into said new houses would also increase economic activity (unless they were used as dumping grounds). It is a virtuous circle.
Regional development policy doesn't have a great track record in creating jobs and revival. The most effective revivals have been the transformation of places like Manchester, Sheffield, Newcastle and even my own Leicester into University cities, from post industrial decay.
Le Pen is 2nd fave. I’d have her as slight favourite. I reckon by 2026 the French will be thinking, Ah fuck it, give her a go, why not?
She’s running the Opposition in the French Parliament and doing it with some discipline. I don’t see a strong coherent rival to her
But of course it is years away….
Melenchon leads the French opposition and French left and will also have a shot, Le Pen's block is third.
However don't forget as Macron cannot run again some centre right voters who voted for him and his liberal party will return to Les Republicains in 2027. The French centre right have been out of power in Paris for 11 years now, if they pick a decent candidate like Xavier Bertrand he could win and beat Melenchon or Le Pen in the run off. En Marche will collapse once Macron goes I think
Le Pen has gained votes as the party has tacked centrally, away from previous Europhobia etc. If she ever wins (and I have my doubts) then it will be by becoming a mainstream conservative.
No Le Pen is almost socialist on economics, just anti immigration and anti Woke too
More than three years after malign fun-fur mascot Boris Johnson first gibbered out the catchphrase, we finally have incontrovertible evidence of what “levelling up” actually is. For its duration, Johnson’s government had a flagship policy that it couldn’t have defined even if it hadn’t been drunk on the contents of a wheelie suitcase. Levelling up now turns out to be a sort of inter-constituency Squid Game, in which MPs who voted for various stripes of self-harm are now forced into trial-by-combat against each other in the hope of appealing to the caprices of shadowy gamesmaster Michael Gove. Arguably there’s an ironic wit to the format – a sort of handout for the anti-handout party, designed solely to inadequately mitigate the effects of cuts made largely by that same party. The players seem quite upset about it now, but are of course free to terminate the game if the majority votes to do so.
Or as one Conservative MP who missed out fumed yesterday: “I’ve got shops without roofs and whole streets of boarded-up houses and some people are getting cash for adventure golf.” Which is, by coincidence, exactly the picture in the political glossary next to the phrase “sunlit uplands”. Another Tory MP described the policy delivery as “a fuck-up of epic proportions”, casting it as the Stalingrad of not securing a planetarium for your northern marginal.
Refurbishing (or replacing) these boarded up homes would deliver the cheap housing we need (and claim to want) as well as levelling up.
If there were well paying secure jobs then those boarded up houses would be fixed or replaced in a trice. That is what "Levelling Up" needs to do.
Fixing those houses would create well paying secure jobs in the building trade, and the influx of people into said new houses would also increase economic activity (unless they were used as dumping grounds). It is a virtuous circle.
The other light on the horizon is that the rail link to Newcastle looks to be progressing;
It's strange how public opinion sometimes moves in the precise opposite direction than what "experts" expect.
We were told that the Gender Recognition Bill was a trap - deliberately get the UK Government to block it and that will boost the case for independence.
Well today Survation has Independence at Yes 46, No 54.
Now we know the Gender Recognition Bill is unpopular in Scotland - so might it be that Scots are thinking it's actually a good thing being in the UK - as the UK Government is able to block this legislation they don't want.
And, crucially, if they weren't in the UK, what other crazy (and much more serious) things might the Scottish Government do which couldn't then be blocked?
Dream on sunshine, public do not like the Gender crap but they still hate the union even more.
Dame Anne Gloag, the founder of stagecoach, along with three others charged with human trafficking.
"It is deeply ironic that Dame Ann actually funds an Eastern European charity called the Open Door Foundation whose job it is to stop the trafficking of poor women into sex crimes.
Le Pen is 2nd fave. I’d have her as slight favourite. I reckon by 2026 the French will be thinking, Ah fuck it, give her a go, why not?
She’s running the Opposition in the French Parliament and doing it with some discipline. I don’t see a strong coherent rival to her
But of course it is years away….
Melenchon leads the French opposition and French left and will also have a shot, Le Pen's block is third.
However don't forget as Macron cannot run again some centre right voters who voted for him and his liberal party will return to Les Republicains in 2027. The French centre right have been out of power in Paris for 11 years now, if they pick a decent candidate like Xavier Bertrand he could win and beat Melenchon or Le Pen in the run off. En Marche will collapse once Macron goes I think
Le Pen has gained votes as the party has tacked centrally, away from previous Europhobia etc. If she ever wins (and I have my doubts) then it will be by becoming a mainstream conservative.
No Le Pen is almost socialist on economics, just anti immigration and anti Woke too
Yes, but to win she has to tone down rhetoric on all those things, and to win votes from Macron and what's left of the Republicans. Otherwise she will remain a serial loser.
Just like if the Tories want to win again they need to shift away from Brexitism.
In a run off v Melenchon maybe, in a run off v Philippe or Bertrand she would need to push the socialism aspects even harder to win over Melenchon voters
It's strange how public opinion sometimes moves in the precise opposite direction than what "experts" expect.
We were told that the Gender Recognition Bill was a trap - deliberately get the UK Government to block it and that will boost the case for independence.
Well today Survation has Independence at Yes 46, No 54.
Now we know the Gender Recognition Bill is unpopular in Scotland - so might it be that Scots are thinking it's actually a good thing being in the UK - as the UK Government is able to block this legislation they don't want.
And, crucially, if they weren't in the UK, what other crazy (and much more serious) things might the Scottish Government do which couldn't then be blocked?
If the next few years see the FPTP bubbles of the Tories and SNP burst we’ll be none the worst off.
If the SNP command 50% of Scottish votes then great, give them 50% of seats. Not almost all, with weird tactical voting in the remainder.
As subsamples are all the rage today:
SNP 57% SLab 27% Grn 5% SCon 5% SLD 4% Ref 2%
Pro-independence parties 62% British nationalist parties 38%
Dame Anne Gloag, the founder of stagecoach, along with three others charged with human trafficking.
"It is deeply ironic that Dame Ann actually funds an Eastern European charity called the Open Door Foundation whose job it is to stop the trafficking of poor women into sex crimes.
Dame Anne Gloag, the founder of stagecoach, along with three others charged with human trafficking.
"It is deeply ironic that Dame Ann actually funds an Eastern European charity called the Open Door Foundation whose job it is to stop the trafficking of poor women into sex crimes.
Trump is now favourite for the Republican nomination. What's happening?
He had a reasonably good Harris poll yesterday with him on 48%, De Santis 28%, Pence 7%, Rubio 3%, and Haley 3% in a hypothetical GOP primary.
That's actually a modest increase for De Santis compared with early December, but it's better for Trump than some other polling companies have given, and arguably you'd expect De Santis to have had more of a bump as there has been some buzz around him.
Le Pen is 2nd fave. I’d have her as slight favourite. I reckon by 2026 the French will be thinking, Ah fuck it, give her a go, why not?
She’s running the Opposition in the French Parliament and doing it with some discipline. I don’t see a strong coherent rival to her
But of course it is years away….
Melenchon leads the French opposition and French left and will also have a shot, Le Pen's block is third.
However don't forget as Macron cannot run again some centre right voters who voted for him and his liberal party will return to Les Republicains in 2027. The French centre right have been out of power in Paris for 11 years now, if they pick a decent candidate like Xavier Bertrand he could win and beat Melenchon or Le Pen in the run off. En Marche will collapse once Macron goes I think
Le Pen has gained votes as the party has tacked centrally, away from previous Europhobia etc. If she ever wins (and I have my doubts) then it will be by becoming a mainstream conservative.
No Le Pen is almost socialist on economics, just anti immigration and anti Woke too
It does what it says on the tin; "National Socialism".
Dame Anne Gloag, the founder of stagecoach, along with three others charged with human trafficking.
"It is deeply ironic that Dame Ann actually funds an Eastern European charity called the Open Door Foundation whose job it is to stop the trafficking of poor women into sex crimes.
You can bet on it, but hard to believe given the money she has why would she need to be involved in that crap.
Are the Gloags not big SNP donors?
The brother funded a few things many many moons ago but not aware of anything recent. Only donors SNP have nowadays is Westminster with short money and the money they rob off people by pretending to have ring fenced referendum funds. Given the amount of members they have lost they badly need Westminster money to pay the big wages of Imelda's "Hubby" and other chums.
Today was a disastrous day for German foreign policy. Germany became a major blockage for Ukrainian victory over Russia by refusing to allow anybody to deliver their Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. This may become a black mark for Germany for a long time if not swiftly reversed.
Dame Anne Gloag, the founder of stagecoach, along with three others charged with human trafficking.
"It is deeply ironic that Dame Ann actually funds an Eastern European charity called the Open Door Foundation whose job it is to stop the trafficking of poor women into sex crimes.
What most observers see: "A man who only acts when there is no other way. That comes at a cost: of alienating friends and allies internationally, irritating his own coalition, and being forever late."
I'd add: Scholz promises "Keine Alleingänge!" But his style of communication says the opposite.
It’s a shame. I feel like there’s an opportunity here though. For French leadership of Europe. Cometh the hour, cometh the Macron. Allez les bleus.
It's worse than that. One thing for Scholz not to send tanks; quite another to actively block several European allies from doing so. It is as though it's German policy deliberately to prolong the war.
Why would it be German policy to deliberately prolong the war? You usually make more intelligent comments.
The reporting on is just as uninformative, though this is another account which makes it sound as though the new defence minister is not the one making the decision.
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2023/01/501_344025.html … Germany acknowledged there had been no resolution. But, speaking to reporters outside the conference hall, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said, ''We will make our decisions as soon as possible.''
He said he had ordered the ministry to look into Germany's tank stocks so he can be prepared for a possible green light and be able to ''act immediately.'' Pistorius added that Germany will ''balance all the pros and contras before we decide things like that. . I am very sure that there will be a decision in the short term, but I don't know how the decision will look.''
The issue, however, has grown increasingly complicated.
The U.S. has resisted providing its own M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, citing extensive and complex maintenance and logistical challenges with the high-tech vehicles. Washington believes it would be more productive to send German Leopards since many allies have them and Ukrainian troops would need less training than on the more difficult Abrams.
U.S. and German officials have given mixed signals about whether the U.S. and German decisions are linked.
A U.S. official familiar with White House thinking said Germany has expressed hesitance to providing its tanks unless the U.S. sends Abrams. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private Biden administration deliberations, added that there was some bewilderment in the administration over the German position, since Britain, another NATO ally, has already agreed to provide Challenger 2 tanks.
Steffen Hebestreit, a spokesman for the German government, denied that Berlin has demanded that the U.S. supply Abrams tanks alongside any shipment of Leopards...
And none of this gives any reason, let alone a coherent one, as to why Germany would veto third countries sending tanks. That was previously a matter of conjecture, but it seems very clear this week that is the case.
Scholz is both too cautious and too timid. The wrong man in the wrong job at the wrong time. German policy has been consistently to wait for the Americans before delivering different kinds of weapons - we saw that recently with Marders for example. The keine Alleingänge statements are invariably followed by emphasising the importance of the "transatlantic" alliance, so not surprising that UK delivering a few Challengers isn't enough to shift this.
Why stick to this policy? Partly there is domestic opposition to sending tanks - a poll released on Thursday showed more people opposing sending Leopards than in favour, but I don't think this is the main reason. This opposition is anyway fairly soft, a chunk of it will be people who think Germany should support Ukraine but not start a 3rd world war. If tanks are delivered and a 3rd world war doesn't start, a chunk of the opposition will disappear.
I think a bigger concern is the strategic aims of the west and the US in particular. How far is the US committed to supporting Ukraine here? Germany doesn't want to be left holding the baby. It would only take the US announcing an intention of supplying tanks to unlock this.
I don't think the unfortunate resonances of "German tanks help win a war in Eastern Europe" are a major factor, but there are also these historical concerns too.
Still, I'm surprised that Germany didn't agree yesterday to allow other countries to transfer tanks, and I still think they might in the next days even without US promise of Abrams - but maybe it's also possible that Germany isn't quite as isolated in its current position as some people think.
Dame Anne Gloag, the founder of stagecoach, along with three others charged with human trafficking.
"It is deeply ironic that Dame Ann actually funds an Eastern European charity called the Open Door Foundation whose job it is to stop the trafficking of poor women into sex crimes.
You can bet on it, but hard to believe given the money she has why would she need to be involved in that crap.
Are the Gloags not big SNP donors?
The brother funded a few things many many moons ago but not aware of anything recent. Only donors SNP have nowadays is Westminster with short money and the money they rob off people by pretending to have ring fenced referendum funds. Given the amount of members they have lost they badly need Westminster money to pay the big wages of Imelda's "Hubby" and other chums.
Maybe Nicola and Peter could go back to presenting Crackerjack if the money dries up.
What most observers see: "A man who only acts when there is no other way. That comes at a cost: of alienating friends and allies internationally, irritating his own coalition, and being forever late."
I'd add: Scholz promises "Keine Alleingänge!" But his style of communication says the opposite.
It’s a shame. I feel like there’s an opportunity here though. For French leadership of Europe. Cometh the hour, cometh the Macron. Allez les bleus.
It's worse than that. One thing for Scholz not to send tanks; quite another to actively block several European allies from doing so. It is as though it's German policy deliberately to prolong the war.
Why would it be German policy to deliberately prolong the war? You usually make more intelligent comments.
The reporting on is just as uninformative, though this is another account which makes it sound as though the new defence minister is not the one making the decision.
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2023/01/501_344025.html … Germany acknowledged there had been no resolution. But, speaking to reporters outside the conference hall, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said, ''We will make our decisions as soon as possible.''
He said he had ordered the ministry to look into Germany's tank stocks so he can be prepared for a possible green light and be able to ''act immediately.'' Pistorius added that Germany will ''balance all the pros and contras before we decide things like that. . I am very sure that there will be a decision in the short term, but I don't know how the decision will look.''
The issue, however, has grown increasingly complicated.
The U.S. has resisted providing its own M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, citing extensive and complex maintenance and logistical challenges with the high-tech vehicles. Washington believes it would be more productive to send German Leopards since many allies have them and Ukrainian troops would need less training than on the more difficult Abrams.
U.S. and German officials have given mixed signals about whether the U.S. and German decisions are linked.
A U.S. official familiar with White House thinking said Germany has expressed hesitance to providing its tanks unless the U.S. sends Abrams. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private Biden administration deliberations, added that there was some bewilderment in the administration over the German position, since Britain, another NATO ally, has already agreed to provide Challenger 2 tanks.
Steffen Hebestreit, a spokesman for the German government, denied that Berlin has demanded that the U.S. supply Abrams tanks alongside any shipment of Leopards...
And none of this gives any reason, let alone a coherent one, as to why Germany would veto third countries sending tanks. That was previously a matter of conjecture, but it seems very clear this week that is the case.
Scholz is both too cautious and too timid. The wrong man in the wrong job at the wrong time. German policy has been consistently to wait for the Americans before delivering different kinds of weapons - we saw that recently with Marders for example. The keine Alleingänge statements are invariably followed by emphasising the importance of the "transatlantic" alliance, so not surprising that UK delivering a few Challengers isn't enough to shift this.
Why stick to this policy? Partly there is domestic opposition to sending tanks - a poll released on Thursday showed more people opposing sending Leopards than in favour, but I don't think this is the main reason. This opposition is anyway fairly soft, a chunk of it will be people who think Germany should support Ukraine but not start a 3rd world war. If tanks are delivered and a 3rd world war doesn't start, a chunk of the opposition will disappear.
I think a bigger concern is the strategic aims of the west and the US in particular. How far is the US committed to supporting Ukraine here? Germany doesn't want to be left holding the baby. It would only take the US announcing an intention of supplying tanks to unlock this.
I don't think the unfortunate resonances of "German tanks help win a war in Eastern Europe" are a major factor, but there are also these historical concerns too.
Still, I'm surprised that Germany didn't agree yesterday to allow other countries to transfer tanks, and I still think they might in the next days even without US promise of Abrams - but maybe it's also possible that Germany isn't quite as isolated in its current position as some people think.
“Germany doesn't want to be left holding the baby“
Once again, a Guardian columnist has compared the resistance to radical trans ideology with homophobia in the 1980s. Why do people – and in this case Owen Jones, a gay man who, by virtue of his age, was not involved in the long fight against Section 28 – rely on that argument? It might pull at the heartstrings of some liberals, but to conflate the two struggles is dangerously misleading….
I have yet to come across a sensible way to compare gay liberation and trans issues. Each has its own sensitivities. Unlike someone trying to change who they are physically, gay and lesbian people were fighting to be recognised as their current selves. We were not seeking taxpayer-funded access to surgery or hormone treatments, but simply to be acknowledged as equal under the law.
A response to the widely re-tweeted Lord Falconer thread on S.35:
…. Lord Falconer of Thoroton tweeted a thread arguing that “The Statement of Reasons did not justify the use of s35”. This thread captured widespread attention, on social media and in the press. Lord Falconer is a major Labour Party figure. He was Solicitor General for England and Wales, later Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice in the Blair government from 2003 to 2007. During that period, he was closely involved with the passing of the Gender Recognition Act 2004. Most recently, he was Shadow Attorney General, from April 2020 to November 2021.
Given Lord Falconer’s standing, for many people either already inclined to agree with him here, or without a strong view, he will reasonably be seen as an authoritative figure. This blog analyses Lord Falconer’s thread and argues that it does not stand up well to detailed scrutiny, although there are a couple of points that might be usable in any case the Scottish Government brings.
How do you explain the decision to block other countries sending Leo 2's? (Let alone the decision not to send German ones)?
Because German capital, at whose pleasure OS serves, doesn't want to be on the Kremlin's shit list when the SMO is over and the sanctions are inevitably lifted. There will be a great deal of pent up demand for the products of DMG Mori, etc.
They are linking it to Abrams in the firm and enduring belief that the US will never give them to Ukraine so Germany will never have to sanction the transfer of Leopards. The US does, 100%, want to prolong the conflict as long as possible, or at least until the 2024 election campaign gets into full swing, because it weakens Russia and erodes the strategic autonomy of Europe.
The 'complexity' argument regarding Abrams is specious. They delivered M1 to Iraq for fuck's sake.
It’s not entirely specious since it makes sense to standardise on one type. And it terms of maintenance, training and logistic support, the Leopard is undoubtedly superior in Europe - and less thirsty. Of course Ukraine could use the M1, but that for no really isn’t the point.
And “100% want to prolong the conflict” is your view, which I think is wrong. Though again there are plenty of US politicians who do think that.
Once again, a Guardian columnist has compared the resistance to radical trans ideology with homophobia in the 1980s. Why do people – and in this case Owen Jones, a gay man who, by virtue of his age, was not involved in the long fight against Section 28 – rely on that argument? It might pull at the heartstrings of some liberals, but to conflate the two struggles is dangerously misleading….
I have yet to come across a sensible way to compare gay liberation and trans issues. Each has its own sensitivities. Unlike someone trying to change who they are physically, gay and lesbian people were fighting to be recognised as their current selves. We were not seeking taxpayer-funded access to surgery or hormone treatments, but simply to be acknowledged as equal under the law.
I'm loath to get into this debate because it's so fucking boring but the above strikes me as a rather disingenuous argument. I'm sure that trans people would argue that in both cases it is about being true to who you believe you are inside and overcoming the prejudice of people who are offended by that.
Trump is now favourite for the Republican nomination. What's happening?
No one wants to take him on.
Oh, they all want to, but they are too scared.
If they're terrified of the fat orange man baby then they're probably not qualified for the job of leader of the free world. People like to hate on Biden but one of his many underappreciated strengths is that he absolutely isn't scared of Trump.
Miss Vance, that's akin to trying to silence people or 'win' arguments by denouncing the other side as -ists or -phobes.
If you wrap yourself up in a liberty flag then opposition becomes seen as inherently tyrannical.
It does make having an actual debate rather difficult, though.
On the other hand, there are times when it is perfectly 100% accurate to call people -ists or -phobes.
That's true, and it is also true that such people will also use (at least to start with) non transphobic arguments, in much the same way that the anti-semites that flare up around the Palestine issue will use non anti-semitic arguments too (it is how they employ them, how they escalate etc, that reveals the difference).
But far from just on this issue (or restricted to one side of politics) there is a general trend where people want certain things to be not up for debate (it feels like the trend is increasing, but that might be just perception). It makes getting what they want much easier. But matters of rights are still political questions for debate, even if sometimes it should and is a very short debate, with shouty irrational people.
Once again, a Guardian columnist has compared the resistance to radical trans ideology with homophobia in the 1980s. Why do people – and in this case Owen Jones, a gay man who, by virtue of his age, was not involved in the long fight against Section 28 – rely on that argument? It might pull at the heartstrings of some liberals, but to conflate the two struggles is dangerously misleading….
I have yet to come across a sensible way to compare gay liberation and trans issues. Each has its own sensitivities. Unlike someone trying to change who they are physically, gay and lesbian people were fighting to be recognised as their current selves. We were not seeking taxpayer-funded access to surgery or hormone treatments, but simply to be acknowledged as equal under the law.
Trump is now favourite for the Republican nomination. What's happening?
No one wants to take him on.
Oh, they all want to, but they are too scared.
If they're terrified of the fat orange man baby then they're probably not qualified for the job of leader of the free world. People like to hate on Biden but one of his many underappreciated strengths is that he absolutely isn't scared of Trump.
The orange baby crushed Governors of Texas, Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Louisiana, New York, Virginia, New Jersey, Arkansas, Senators from Texas, Florida, Kentucky, Pennsylvania and South Carolina, as well as a tech CEO and a neurosurgeon last time he was challenged for leader of the crazies.
Dame Anne Gloag, the founder of stagecoach, along with three others charged with human trafficking.
"It is deeply ironic that Dame Ann actually funds an Eastern European charity called the Open Door Foundation whose job it is to stop the trafficking of poor women into sex crimes.
Because he is an idiot. Literally the best way of driving adoption of Twitter Blue would have been - compulsary membership if you want to use a third party app - as it would be a quid pro quo for not receiving the (incredibly badly targetted so worthless) adverts.
Dame Anne Gloag, the founder of stagecoach, along with three others charged with human trafficking.
"It is deeply ironic that Dame Ann actually funds an Eastern European charity called the Open Door Foundation whose job it is to stop the trafficking of poor women into sex crimes.
The Sun said allowing homophobia would lead to paedophiles raping school kids, sound familiar?
Personally, I see a strong connection between them, and the attitudes in the 80s when I was growing up and now. But I know others on here strongly disagree.
Yesterday we saw two very different results on the Sindyref question - one from Survation, using the traditional panel method (No ahead) another using the new FindOutNow methodology (Yes ahead).
Thread analysing the differences - it’s not to say one method is right and the other wrong, but there may be a “shy no vote/enthusiastic yes vote” at play in the latter.
We won’t know until we see how they perform vs real votes:
The Sun said allowing homophobia would lead to paedophiles raping school kids, sound familiar?
Personally, I see a strong connection between them, and the attitudes in the 80s when I was growing up and now. But I know others on here strongly disagree.
My view is that I don’t rate it highly as none of the problems that have been highlighted of gay rights have come to life and I feel exactly the same about trans rights.
The chances of you meeting a trans person are virtually zero. Why people get so wound up about an issue that will never impact them is very strange to me. I am not gay, their issues do not impact me, they can do what they want as far as I am concerned.
The Sun said allowing homophobia would lead to paedophiles raping school kids, sound familiar?
Personally, I see a strong connection between them, and the attitudes in the 80s when I was growing up and now. But I know others on here strongly disagree.
I think it's hard to argue no connection, there is a strand of opinion resistant for similar reasons and an ugly side rears its head as a result, but I don't think that strand encompasses or eclipses all the issues others have raised, which is what seems to be argued by some when painting it as directly applicable.
The Sun said allowing homophobia would lead to paedophiles raping school kids, sound familiar?
Personally, I see a strong connection between them, and the attitudes in the 80s when I was growing up and now. But I know others on here strongly disagree.
I think it's hard to argue no connection, there is a strand of opinion resistant for similar reasons and an ugly side rears its head as a result, but I don't think that strand encompasses or eclipses all the issues others have raised, which is what seems to be argued by some when painting it as directly applicable.
You do have to say though that the same media sources that argues against gay rights are arguing against trans rights too. There certainly is an overlap.
I don’t doubt there are legitimate issues that should be resolved but I think in general we’re going in the right direction.
I don’t think many actual people think trans rights should be entirely rolled back do they?
Yesterday we saw two very different results on the Sindyref question - one from Survation, using the traditional panel method (No ahead) another using the new FindOutNow methodology (Yes ahead).
Thread analysing the differences - it’s not to say one method is right and the other wrong, but there may be a “shy no vote/enthusiastic yes vote” at play in the latter.
We won’t know until we see how they perform vs real votes:
Which won't be until the next UK general election given no Holyrood or Scottish local elections until after 2024 and this UK government has ruled out indyref2 supported by the UK SC
Comments
! UPDATE
We are currently fit to place bets however we will hold a Precautionary funds Inspection on Saturday 21/01 at 10:00.
If there is a whiff of progress in the air, they should at least see off Parti pour la défense de la France médiévale.
Incidentally, anyone seen Medieval on Netflix?
You are only supposed to knock their bloody heads off. 😆
One thing for Scholz not to send tanks; quite another to actively block several European allies from doing so.
It is as though it's German policy deliberately to prolong the war.
https://twitter.com/ksadjadpour/status/1616420857630318599
Also similar numbers to the previous Survation.
"It is deeply ironic that Dame Ann actually funds an Eastern European charity called the Open Door Foundation whose job it is to stop the trafficking of poor women into sex crimes.
Are they prominent unionists ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-64355631
It’s been suggested elsewhere that the policy is in favour of an extended stalemate so that Ukraine is obliged to negotiate, but that too seems absurd.
How do you account for it ?
Aye, the blues are doomed. Partly unforced errors, partly due to difficult times, but a lot of it is just the elastic of office which grows more taut over time before snapping back. 'Time for a change' is a winning slogan, sooner or later.
SNP 57%
SLab 27%
Grn 5%
SCon 5%
SLD 4%
Ref 2%
Pro-independence parties 62%
British nationalist parties 38%
PeoplePolling/GB News; 18 January
Or as one Conservative MP who missed out fumed yesterday: “I’ve got shops without roofs and whole streets of boarded-up houses and some people are getting cash for adventure golf.” Which is, by coincidence, exactly the picture in the political glossary next to the phrase “sunlit uplands”. Another Tory MP described the policy delivery as “a fuck-up of epic proportions”, casting it as the Stalingrad of not securing a planetarium for your northern marginal.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/20/levelling-up-rishi-sunak-prime-minister-policy
The German government's position is utterly baffling and inexplicable from what we know, especially as it seems much of the German population is in favour of sending the Leo2's.
How do you explain the decision to block other countries sending Leo 2's? (Let alone the decision not to send German ones)?
Republicans are completely nuts. I wonder what would happen if they saw a panto? Their head would explode.
It may not happen, but there's still plenty of room for a(nother) Terrible Night For The Tories.
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2023/01/501_344025.html
… Germany acknowledged there had been no resolution. But, speaking to reporters outside the conference hall, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said, ''We will make our decisions as soon as possible.''
He said he had ordered the ministry to look into Germany's tank stocks so he can be prepared for a possible green light and be able to ''act immediately.'' Pistorius added that Germany will ''balance all the pros and contras before we decide things like that. . I am very sure that there will be a decision in the short term, but I don't know how the decision will look.''
The issue, however, has grown increasingly complicated.
The U.S. has resisted providing its own M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, citing extensive and complex maintenance and logistical challenges with the high-tech vehicles. Washington believes it would be more productive to send German Leopards since many allies have them and Ukrainian troops would need less training than on the more difficult Abrams.
U.S. and German officials have given mixed signals about whether the U.S. and German decisions are linked.
A U.S. official familiar with White House thinking said Germany has expressed hesitance to providing its tanks unless the U.S. sends Abrams. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private Biden administration deliberations, added that there was some bewilderment in the administration over the German position, since Britain, another NATO ally, has already agreed to provide Challenger 2 tanks.
Steffen Hebestreit, a spokesman for the German government, denied that Berlin has demanded that the U.S. supply Abrams tanks alongside any shipment of Leopards...
And none of this gives any reason, let alone a coherent one, as to why Germany would veto third countries sending tanks.
That was previously a matter of conjecture, but it seems very clear this week that is the case.
Anyway it is all about swing, the fact the Tories got just 28% in May 2019 means the swing against the Tories will be lower than in May 2019 in terms of lost voteshare and Sunak's team can spin accordingly
"In general, though, do you care for Sunak’s tone? He seems to have just the two speeds: dewy-eyed prefect delivering a supposedly inspirational speech to much, much younger children; and high-financier unable to fully hide his impatience that he should be required to answer questions from lesser mortals. Neither seems immediately obviously likely to endear him to the British public. Perhaps he’s slightly helped by being up against Keir Starmer, who delivers every statement like his next one is going to be “And had you thought of a preferred wood for the casket?”"
Guardian headline writer back on top form.
However don't forget as Macron cannot run again some centre right voters who voted for him and his liberal party will return to Les Republicains in 2027. The French centre right have been out of power in Paris for 11 years now, if they pick a decent candidate like Xavier Bertrand he could win and beat Melenchon or Le Pen in the run off. En Marche will collapse once Macron goes I think
The man's a national benefactor, we should be thanking him.
And I wonder how much time of the limited HMRC staff has been wasted = costs.
But yes, the cash is helpful.
Just like if the Tories want to win again they need to shift away from Brexitism.
They are linking it to Abrams in the firm and enduring belief that the US will never give them to Ukraine so Germany will never have to sanction the transfer of Leopards. The US does, 100%, want to prolong the conflict as long as possible, or at least until the 2024 election campaign gets into full swing, because it weakens Russia and erodes the strategic autonomy of Europe.
The 'complexity' argument regarding Abrams is specious. They delivered M1 to Iraq for fuck's sake.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jan/21/coleshill-towers-remains-history-english-civil-war
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northumberland_Line
Being a commuter base of a nearby city isn't a comfortable status for a town, but if agglomeration works, it's probably what we (as a nation) need.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/11118/trump-looks-a-good-bet-for-the-wh2024-nomination-politicalbetting-com#latest
On the other hand I’m suddenly £125 up by not gambling it. I’m not considering the all weather track “bingo”
https://www.theage.com.au/national/fatal-heart-attacks-have-surged-in-australia-here-s-why-20230117-p5cd22.html
That's actually a modest increase for De Santis compared with early December, but it's better for Trump than some other polling companies have given, and arguably you'd expect De Santis to have had more of a bump as there has been some buzz around him.
Given the amount of members they have lost they badly need Westminster money to pay the big wages of Imelda's "Hubby" and other chums.
https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1616562195067818000
German policy has been consistently to wait for the Americans before delivering different kinds of weapons - we saw that recently with Marders for example. The keine Alleingänge statements are invariably followed by emphasising the importance of the "transatlantic" alliance, so not surprising that UK delivering a few Challengers isn't enough to shift this.
Why stick to this policy? Partly there is domestic opposition to sending tanks - a poll released on Thursday showed more people opposing sending Leopards than in favour, but I don't think this is the main reason. This opposition is anyway fairly soft, a chunk of it will be people who think Germany should support Ukraine but not start a 3rd world war. If tanks are delivered and a 3rd world war doesn't start, a chunk of the opposition will disappear.
I think a bigger concern is the strategic aims of the west and the US in particular. How far is the US committed to supporting Ukraine here? Germany doesn't want to be left holding the baby. It would only take the US announcing an intention of supplying tanks to unlock this.
I don't think the unfortunate resonances of "German tanks help win a war in Eastern Europe" are a major factor, but there are also these historical concerns too.
Still, I'm surprised that Germany didn't agree yesterday to allow other countries to transfer tanks, and I still think they might in the next days even without US promise of Abrams - but maybe it's also possible that Germany isn't quite as isolated in its current position as some people think.
They’d prefer a dead baby?
I have yet to come across a sensible way to compare gay liberation and trans issues. Each has its own sensitivities. Unlike someone trying to change who they are physically, gay and lesbian people were fighting to be recognised as their current selves. We were not seeking taxpayer-funded access to surgery or hormone treatments, but simply to be acknowledged as equal under the law.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/01/20/dangerous-conflate-gay-trans-rights-struggles/
If you wrap yourself up in a liberty flag then opposition becomes seen as inherently tyrannical.
It does make having an actual debate rather difficult, though.
…. Lord Falconer of Thoroton tweeted a thread arguing that “The Statement of Reasons did not justify the use of s35”. This thread captured widespread attention, on social media and in the press. Lord Falconer is a major Labour Party figure. He was Solicitor General for England and Wales, later Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice in the Blair government from 2003 to 2007. During that period, he was closely involved with the passing of the Gender Recognition Act 2004. Most recently, he was Shadow Attorney General, from April 2020 to November 2021.
Given Lord Falconer’s standing, for many people either already inclined to agree with him here, or without a strong view, he will reasonably be seen as an authoritative figure. This blog analyses Lord Falconer’s thread and argues that it does not stand up well to detailed scrutiny, although there are a couple of points that might be usable in any case the Scottish Government brings.
https://murrayblackburnmackenzie.org/2023/01/20/the-limits-of-the-lord-falconer-thread/
And it terms of maintenance, training and logistic support, the Leopard is undoubtedly superior in Europe - and less thirsty.
Of course Ukraine could use the M1, but that for no really isn’t the point.
And “100% want to prolong the conflict” is your view, which I think is wrong. Though again there are plenty of US politicians who do think that.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/01/20/why-liz-truss-might-find-redemption-america/
It was Sturgeon who dismissed concerns as “not valid” and it’s Stonewall that argues for “No Debate!”.
But far from just on this issue (or restricted to one side of politics) there is a general trend where people want certain things to be not up for debate (it feels like the trend is increasing, but that might be just perception). It makes getting what they want much easier. But matters of rights are still political questions for debate, even if sometimes it should and is a very short debate, with shouty irrational people.
Owen Jones was born in 1984 so for his entire education Section 28 was in force.
He was part of the generation of young gay people most impacted by Section 28.
If he wanted help and support from his teachers because of his homosexuality his teachers couldn’t help him.
Trans issues aren’t like gay rights issues?
The Sun said allowing gay rights would lead to paedophiles raping school kids, sound familiar?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/dec/26/four-fights-in-the-long-scottish-battle-for-right-to-roam
Thread analysing the differences - it’s not to say one method is right and the other wrong, but there may be a “shy no vote/enthusiastic yes vote” at play in the latter.
We won’t know until we see how they perform vs real votes:
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1616725599828992002
The chances of you meeting a trans person are virtually zero. Why people get so wound up about an issue that will never impact them is very strange to me. I am not gay, their issues do not impact me, they can do what they want as far as I am concerned.
I don’t doubt there are legitimate issues that should be resolved but I think in general we’re going in the right direction.
I don’t think many actual people think trans rights should be entirely rolled back do they?
Seems to have got less press than seat belt gate for some reason?