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Just 42% of GE2019 CON voters now back Sunak’s party – YouGov – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 29 in General
imageJust 42% of GE2019 CON voters now back Sunak’s party – YouGov – politicalbetting.com

Of all the online posters nowadays one firm that stands out and that is YouGov which is effectively the pollster that invented it. One result is that their polling panel is larger than just about anybody else’s with very good records on what members of the panel said they did at previous general elections.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    edited January 20
    So 23% of 2019 Conservative voters are now DK compared to just 11% who have switched to Labour, with another 11% who have switched to RefUK too.

    5% of 2019 LDs though have switched to Sunak's Tories, so expect Sunak to be doing better ìn the bluewall than the redwall

  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,244
    Do we know how these "Don't Know" numbers compare historically?

    The second question is what proportion of these DKs intend to vote. It's generally thought (especially by Tories) the lower turnout in 1997 was partly a large number of ex-Conservative voters who simply refused to vote.

    Let's not also forget the 10% of Labour DKs - the overall DK figure is 18%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    They can probably get that back up to 60%. Still screwed.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    HYUFD said:

    So 23% of 2019 Conservative voters are now DK compared to just 11% who have switched to Labour, with another 11% who have switched to RefUK too.

    5% of 2019 LDs though have switched to Sunak's Tories, so expect Sunak to be doing better ìn the bluewall than the redwall

    I disagree. I think that’s complete wacky psephology. Or anti Sunak spin - build unrealistic targets for Rishi now, to call him a failure in May is your game isn’t it?

    You still reckon Tories getting 29% of votes and the libdems 12% in the locals, in 103 sleeps time?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356

    HYUFD said:

    So 23% of 2019 Conservative voters are now DK compared to just 11% who have switched to Labour, with another 11% who have switched to RefUK too.

    5% of 2019 LDs though have switched to Sunak's Tories, so expect Sunak to be doing better ìn the bluewall than the redwall

    I disagree. I think that’s complete wacky psephology. Or anti Sunak spin - build unrealistic targets for Rishi now, to call him a failure in May is your game isn’t it?

    You still reckon Tories getting 29% of votes and the libdems 12% in the locals, in 103 sleeps time?
    Yes. Will be few RefUK candidates and the seats are mainly in the English shires
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    Awful Front pages for Labour on those already in tonight. “Labours women problem” and “you will open a can of worms - UK EU negotiators WARN Starmer”
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    I think proven and ready to deliver Trusshard will help Arsenal much more this season and next season than Mudrich would ever have done. But for me the Kiwior signing is a complete no no. Don’t sign him Arsenal.

    He’ll be shagged out before he gets on the pitch.

    https://www.dailystar.co.uk/sport/football/arsenal-kiwior-twerk-queen-wag-29006993
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,240
    stodge said:

    Do we know how these "Don't Know" numbers compare historically?

    The second question is what proportion of these DKs intend to vote. It's generally thought (especially by Tories) the lower turnout in 1997 was partly a large number of ex-Conservative voters who simply refused to vote.

    Let's not also forget the 10% of Labour DKs - the overall DK figure is 18%.

    Frustratingly, a lot of the historical data tables for old YouGov polls seem to have disappeared from their website, so I haven't been able to look at YouGov polls from, say, 2013 to compare.

    If anyone knows where they can be found, then that could be really helpful.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    stodge said:

    Do we know how these "Don't Know" numbers compare historically?

    The second question is what proportion of these DKs intend to vote. It's generally thought (especially by Tories) the lower turnout in 1997 was partly a large number of ex-Conservative voters who simply refused to vote.

    Let's not also forget the 10% of Labour DKs - the overall DK figure is 18%.

    “Do we know how these "Don't Know" numbers compare historically?”

    Good question Stodge! I think anything below 50% would compare as very low for less than 24 to an election. The comparison would have to be the stage of the parliament won’t it to account archetypical swing away and swing back.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    ...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 23% of 2019 Conservative voters are now DK compared to just 11% who have switched to Labour, with another 11% who have switched to RefUK too.

    5% of 2019 LDs though have switched to Sunak's Tories, so expect Sunak to be doing better ìn the bluewall than the redwall

    I disagree. I think that’s complete wacky psephology. Or anti Sunak spin - build unrealistic targets for Rishi now, to call him a failure in May is your game isn’t it?

    You still reckon Tories getting 29% of votes and the libdems 12% in the locals, in 103 sleeps time?
    Yes. Will be few RefUK candidates and the seats are mainly in the English shires
    There you go again. Tories 29% Lib Dems 12%. 🤷‍♀️

    What about my argument the local voting won’t match Westminster polling and it’s not just 2019 it needs to fit with, but trend or form over the last couple of years too?

    Last year Lib Dems got 19% 2019 they got 19% so by what reasoning do they Slump to 12%? And that extra 7 comes expense of Tories in Blue Wall, meaning Tories 25% or lower.

    We couldn’t be further apart in figures if we were Donetsk and Arsenal Negotiators
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 18,056
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 23% of 2019 Conservative voters are now DK compared to just 11% who have switched to Labour, with another 11% who have switched to RefUK too.

    5% of 2019 LDs though have switched to Sunak's Tories, so expect Sunak to be doing better ìn the bluewall than the redwall

    I disagree. I think that’s complete wacky psephology. Or anti Sunak spin - build unrealistic targets for Rishi now, to call him a failure in May is your game isn’t it?

    You still reckon Tories getting 29% of votes and the libdems 12% in the locals, in 103 sleeps time?
    Yes. Will be few RefUK candidates and the seats are mainly in the English shires
    Can we please be clear - are you talking actual votes cast or National Equivalent Vote Share?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    nico679 said:

    Awful Front pages for Labour on those already in tonight. “Labours women problem” and “you will open a can of worms - UK EU negotiators WARN Starmer”

    So the Daily Mail desperate to avoid the Tory meltdown bigs up a disgruntled MP and the useless UK negotiating team who did that garbage deal are lecturing Starmer .
    Nope - unfortunately for you the threat of Starmer opening box of worms is pushed by the middle of road “i” not Tory media.

    the idea from a senior Tory and former Health minister for GPs being able to charge in order to save this service for the Nation - and who doesn’t want the GP issue sorted somehow - leads the Time’s, alongside the Conservative Minister for women and equality explaining that gender self identification is putting women and girls at risk from sexual predators.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,682
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 23% of 2019 Conservative voters are now DK compared to just 11% who have switched to Labour, with another 11% who have switched to RefUK too.

    5% of 2019 LDs though have switched to Sunak's Tories, so expect Sunak to be doing better ìn the bluewall than the redwall

    The 3% of Conservatives who have switched LD would be a greater number than the 5% of LDs who have gone Conservative. You do know the Conservatives polled 44% and the LDs 12% in 2019 ?
    Now, now, stop deploying maths to obscure the fiction.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 23% of 2019 Conservative voters are now DK compared to just 11% who have switched to Labour, with another 11% who have switched to RefUK too.

    5% of 2019 LDs though have switched to Sunak's Tories, so expect Sunak to be doing better ìn the bluewall than the redwall

    I disagree. I think that’s complete wacky psephology. Or anti Sunak spin - build unrealistic targets for Rishi now, to call him a failure in May is your game isn’t it?

    You still reckon Tories getting 29% of votes and the libdems 12% in the locals, in 103 sleeps time?
    Yes. Will be few RefUK candidates and the seats are mainly in the English shires
    There you go again. Tories 29% Lib Dems 12%. 🤷‍♀️

    What about my argument the local voting won’t match Westminster polling and it’s not just 2019 it needs to fit with, but trend or form over the last couple of years too?

    Last year Lib Dems got 19% 2019 they got 19% so by what reasoning do they Slump to 12%? And that extra 7 comes expense of Tories in Blue Wall, meaning Tories 25% or lower.

    We couldn’t be further apart in figures if we were Donetsk and Arsenal Negotiators
    On the above Yougov a higher percentage of 2019 LDs have switched to the Sunak Tories than
    the percentage of 2019 Tories that
    have switched to the LDs.

    That is GE 2019 Tories ie 43% not the much lower 28% who voted for the Tories in the May 2019 locals the seats for which are the ones up again this May
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    How the Tories lose the next election...

    Javid backs fee to see GP

    Charging for GP appointments and A&E visits is “crucial” to the survival of the NHS, Sajid Javid has declared. The former health secretary says that without radical and controversial reform, the principles of the NHS “cannot survive much longer” as patients face lengthening waits for...
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sajid-javid-backs-fee-to-see-gp-qjspklvxt
  • Weak and weird Rishi fined. Again.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 23% of 2019 Conservative voters are now DK compared to just 11% who have switched to Labour, with another 11% who have switched to RefUK too.

    5% of 2019 LDs though have switched to Sunak's Tories, so expect Sunak to be doing better ìn the bluewall than the redwall

    I disagree. I think that’s complete wacky psephology. Or anti Sunak spin - build unrealistic targets for Rishi now, to call him a failure in May is your game isn’t it?

    You still reckon Tories getting 29% of votes and the libdems 12% in the locals, in 103 sleeps time?
    Yes. Will be few RefUK candidates and the seats are mainly in the English shires
    Can we please be clear - are you talking actual votes cast or National Equivalent Vote Share?
    Hope this clear. After 2019 count Tories won 3,564 councillors, control of 93 councils 30 more than Labour, and got 2,985,959 votes which equated to a healthy mid term 28% Projected national equivalent.

    Correct me where wrong, HY has the Tories getting a better share now 29%, the Lib Dems on just 12, on basis he see’s in polls Rishi doing better in Blue Wall than Boris.

    That’s truly bonkers innit? 🤷‍♀️

    Why is an important local Tory like HY not doing normal expectation management, instead talking up a better than last time success for Rishi than last year results? 🤷‍♀️

    If any of those 2,985,959 voters no longer identify as Con voter and feeling disgruntled, and up to give a slap like they been doing in historic by elections, there’s so many options for them isn’t there?
  • Do the Tories here now like supporting law breakers?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    edited January 20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 23% of 2019 Conservative voters are now DK compared to just 11% who have switched to Labour, with another 11% who have switched to RefUK too.

    5% of 2019 LDs though have switched to Sunak's Tories, so expect Sunak to be doing better ìn the bluewall than the redwall

    I disagree. I think that’s complete wacky psephology. Or anti Sunak spin - build unrealistic targets for Rishi now, to call him a failure in May is your game isn’t it?

    You still reckon Tories getting 29% of votes and the libdems 12% in the locals, in 103 sleeps time?
    Yes. Will be few RefUK candidates and the seats are mainly in the English shires
    Can we please be clear - are you talking actual votes cast or National Equivalent Vote Share?
    Hope this clear. After 2019 count Tories won 3,564 councillors, control of 93 councils 30 more than Labour, and got 2,985,959 votes which equated to a healthy mid term 28% Projected national equivalent.

    Correct me where wrong, HY has the Tories getting a better share now 29%, the Lib Dems on just 12, on basis he see’s in polls Rishi doing better in Blue Wall than Boris.

    That’s truly bonkers innit? 🤷‍♀️

    Why is an important local Tory like HY not doing normal expectation management, instead talking up a better than last time success for Rishi than last year results? 🤷‍♀️

    If any of those 2,985,959 voters no longer identify as Con voter and feeling disgruntled, and up to give a slap like they been doing in historic by elections, there’s so many options for them isn’t there?
    Healthy? The 2019 local elections saw the Tories lose over 1000 councillors and 44 councils. Their worst locals since 1995.

    Rishi is lucky they have little further to fall voteshare and seat and council loss wise.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 23% of 2019 Conservative voters are now DK compared to just 11% who have switched to Labour, with another 11% who have switched to RefUK too.

    5% of 2019 LDs though have switched to Sunak's Tories, so expect Sunak to be doing better ìn the bluewall than the redwall

    I disagree. I think that’s complete wacky psephology. Or anti Sunak spin - build unrealistic targets for Rishi now, to call him a failure in May is your game isn’t it?

    You still reckon Tories getting 29% of votes and the libdems 12% in the locals, in 103 sleeps time?
    Yes. Will be few RefUK candidates and the seats are mainly in the English shires
    There you go again. Tories 29% Lib Dems 12%. 🤷‍♀️

    What about my argument the local voting won’t match Westminster polling and it’s not just 2019 it needs to fit with, but trend or form over the last couple of years too?

    Last year Lib Dems got 19% 2019 they got 19% so by what reasoning do they Slump to 12%? And that extra 7 comes expense of Tories in Blue Wall, meaning Tories 25% or lower.

    We couldn’t be further apart in figures if we were Donetsk and Arsenal Negotiators
    On the above Yougov a higher percentage of 2019 LDs have switched to the Sunak Tories than
    the percentage of 2019 Tories that
    have switched to the LDs.

    That is GE 2019 Tories ie 43% not the much lower 28% who voted for the Tories in the May 2019 locals the seats for which are the ones up again this May
    Okay okay. Only another 103 sleeps and we will know which one of us is right in such apart predictions.

    If you are right and Lib Dems slump to just 12% as Rishi defends the Blue Wall near 29% in a mid term locals, I wont eat any hats, but my flabber will be very gasted.
  • Is MoonRabbit being anti-Labour today then?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214

    nico679 said:

    Awful Front pages for Labour on those already in tonight. “Labours women problem” and “you will open a can of worms - UK EU negotiators WARN Starmer”

    So the Daily Mail desperate to avoid the Tory meltdown bigs up a disgruntled MP and the useless UK negotiating team who did that garbage deal are lecturing Starmer .
    Nope - unfortunately for you the threat of Starmer opening box of worms is pushed by the middle of road “i” not Tory media.

    the idea from a senior Tory and former Health minister for GPs being able to charge in order to save this service for the Nation - and who doesn’t want the GP issue sorted somehow - leads the Time’s, alongside the Conservative Minister for women and equality explaining that gender self identification is putting women and girls at risk from sexual predators.
    Last few weeks Starmer mistakes and scrutiny on Labour policy - especially the wacky and edgy woke and class war stuff - been getting noticeably lot more attention in the media, and those of us trying to predict polling movements should note how this will help Tories get much better polls and Labour worse ones in the coming months.

    Telegraph leads a big good news splash for British holiday makers, as EU backs down on checking them.
    To me it’s obvious why, tourism so important to EU economy’s they don’t want us to go elsewhere.

    Tomorrows papers overall not a bad set for the Tories.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643
    edited January 20
    I see it is foaming Tory ramp night.

    Can’t wait to hear about how well the government is doing in hypothetical polls that might come out at an indeterminate period in the future, somewhere in the multiverse.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932
    Scott_xP said:

    How the Tories lose the next election...

    Javid backs fee to see GP

    Charging for GP appointments and A&E visits is “crucial” to the survival of the NHS, Sajid Javid has declared. The former health secretary says that without radical and controversial reform, the principles of the NHS “cannot survive much longer” as patients face lengthening waits for...
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sajid-javid-backs-fee-to-see-gp-qjspklvxt

    He’s an idiot.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,506
    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    I can report bad news on sheep from this week. It’s frustrating see a sheep licking and nuzzling a clearly stone dead lamb, and later find the sheep herself has died. Vet says keep giving them calcium and nutrients. If this is same in a bigger picture (though don’t look like it talking to others, and I don’t want to start a conspiracy theory as that won’t be professional) my theory is last years wacky weather may have deprived sheep of good things they needed to build up from grazing. If you need to be ready for Olympics like sheep need to be ready for pregnancy and birth, no point getting into training with just weeks to go.

    Last years wacky weather has certainly impacted this years jump season - Stodge likely to back me up on this - as although it looked like wet weather it has been dry down beneath surface and soaked up wet like a sponge, so only recently turning proper soft helping those who prefer that. That’s my excuse anyway.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356

    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?

    Next PM if not Starmer won't be anyone but Boris.

    Brady and Baker likely lose their seats at the next election, Cox an outside bet for Conservative Leader of the Opposition but Steve Barclay is more likely in my view
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214

    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?

    Sooty. With Sweep as chancellor (provided his tax returns survive scrutiny).

    Better than your Geoffrey Cox bet. You sure you don’t mean Geoffrey from rainbow?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    edited January 20
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    How the Tories lose the next election...

    Javid backs fee to see GP

    Charging for GP appointments and A&E visits is “crucial” to the survival of the NHS, Sajid Javid has declared. The former health secretary says that without radical and controversial reform, the principles of the NHS “cannot survive much longer” as patients face lengthening waits for...
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sajid-javid-backs-fee-to-see-gp-qjspklvxt

    He’s an idiot.
    My Dad said not charging “IS the principles of the NHS.”
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,506
    HYUFD said:

    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?

    Next PM if not Starmer won't be anyone but Boris.

    Brady and Baker likely lose their seats at the next election, Cox an outside bet for Conservative Leader of the Opposition but Steve Barclay is more likely in my view
    Boris could well be ruled out from standing. Sunak will still be chopped. By my reckoning that means a new Tory PM.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664

    I see it is foaming Tory ramp night.

    Can’t wait to hear about how well the government is doing in hypothetical polls that might come out at an indeterminate period in the future, somewhere in the multiverse.

    It’s that couple of hours when MoonRabbit descends. Never entirely sure what she’s going to say or how she’ll say it but always fun
    to read, especially after a few 19 crimes interspersed by a nice Greenwich Japanese meal with Asahi + sake bottle.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214

    Is MoonRabbit being anti-Labour today then?

    Nope. I’m being thoughtful and balanced as usual.

    I’m even being fair to Arsenal’s transfer policy where it deserves it for once
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356

    HYUFD said:

    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?

    Next PM if not Starmer won't be anyone but Boris.

    Brady and Baker likely lose their seats at the next election, Cox an outside bet for Conservative Leader of the Opposition but Steve Barclay is more likely in my view
    Boris could well be ruled out from standing. Sunak will still be chopped. By my reckoning that means a new Tory PM.
    He won't, the only alternative who would give the Tories a boost by regaining votes from Labour in the redwall and RefUK is Boris.

    The rest would probably do even worse than Sunak
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664

    I can report bad news on sheep from this week. It’s frustrating see a sheep licking and nuzzling a clearly stone dead lamb, and later find the sheep herself has died. Vet says keep giving them calcium and nutrients. If this is same in a bigger picture (though don’t look like it talking to others, and I don’t want to start a conspiracy theory as that won’t be professional) my theory is last years wacky weather may have deprived sheep of good things they needed to build up from grazing. If you need to be ready for Olympics like sheep need to be ready for pregnancy and birth, no point getting into training with just weeks to go.

    Last years wacky weather has certainly impacted this years jump season - Stodge likely to back me up on this - as although it looked like wet weather it has been dry down beneath surface and soaked up wet like a sponge, so only recently turning proper soft helping those who prefer that. That’s my excuse anyway.

    I was tempted to get some sheep for the vineyard but their apparent death wish has put me off.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,506

    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?

    Sooty. With Sweep as chancellor (provided his tax returns survive scrutiny).

    Better than your Geoffrey Cox bet. You sure you don’t mean Geoffrey from rainbow?
    I'm not in favour of another sock-puppet, though having Geoffrey's hand up the PM would make a nice change from the death grip of the World Economic Forum.

    Geoffrey Cox to me has good Brexit credentials, talks a good game (very high profile barrister), is old and experienced, and would be a 'uniter'. Michael Howard figure.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825
    edited January 20

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    How the Tories lose the next election...

    Javid backs fee to see GP

    Charging for GP appointments and A&E visits is “crucial” to the survival of the NHS, Sajid Javid has declared. The former health secretary says that without radical and controversial reform, the principles of the NHS “cannot survive much longer” as patients face lengthening waits for...
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sajid-javid-backs-fee-to-see-gp-qjspklvxt

    He’s an idiot.
    My Dad said not charging “IS the principles of the NHS.”
    Nye Bevan resigned from Attlee's government over prescription charges being introduced, and there has long been co-payments for NHS dentistry (when available at all!) and optometry.

    NHS charges are almost as old as the NHS itself.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,506
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?

    Next PM if not Starmer won't be anyone but Boris.

    Brady and Baker likely lose their seats at the next election, Cox an outside bet for Conservative Leader of the Opposition but Steve Barclay is more likely in my view
    Boris could well be ruled out from standing. Sunak will still be chopped. By my reckoning that means a new Tory PM.
    He won't, the only alternative who would give the Tories a boost by regaining votes from Labour in the redwall and RefUK is Boris.

    The rest would probably do even worse than Sunak
    Utter rubbish sadly - you have gone completely off the boil since losing Boris. It's not your fault.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,962

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 23% of 2019 Conservative voters are now DK compared to just 11% who have switched to Labour, with another 11% who have switched to RefUK too.

    5% of 2019 LDs though have switched to Sunak's Tories, so expect Sunak to be doing better ìn the bluewall than the redwall

    I disagree. I think that’s complete wacky psephology. Or anti Sunak spin - build unrealistic targets for Rishi now, to call him a failure in May is your game isn’t it?

    You still reckon Tories getting 29% of votes and the libdems 12% in the locals, in 103 sleeps time?
    Yes. Will be few RefUK candidates and the seats are mainly in the English shires
    Can we please be clear - are you talking actual votes cast or National Equivalent Vote Share?
    Hope this clear. After 2019 count Tories won 3,564 councillors, control of 93 councils 30 more than Labour, and got 2,985,959 votes which equated to a healthy mid term 28% Projected national equivalent.

    Correct me where wrong, HY has the Tories getting a better share now 29%, the Lib Dems on just 12, on basis he see’s in polls Rishi doing better in Blue Wall than Boris.

    That’s truly bonkers innit? 🤷‍♀️

    Why is an important local Tory like HY not doing normal expectation management, instead talking up a better than last time success for Rishi than last year results? 🤷‍♀️

    If any of those 2,985,959 voters no longer identify as Con voter and feeling disgruntled, and up to give a slap like they been doing in historic by elections, there’s so many options for them isn’t there?
    Hi Moon,

    I was looking at this today - in the lead up to the May 19 elections the LDs were still polling at only around 9% and the 19% PNS was a surprise on the upside So the potential for LD to exceed their polling levels, and for the Tories to come in below theirs is non negligible.

    It was subsequent to the May elections that Brexit was confirmed delayed, the polling went haywire with LD and BXP poll leads, and
    the TMay fatal Euro elections followed a few
    weeks after.

    I've worked up a simplish method for assessing local by-elections basically averaging the NEV/PNS last time (which is variously based on 2019 / 21 or 22 for different elections) with the average swing for those where Lab and Con are defending their position.

    The 7 by elections in January so far suggest a national share of LAB 42 CON 21 with one week to go. The December margin was somewhat narrower, but I do expect these to bounce around a bit.

    42/21 with almost any LD share would bring heavy Con losses from a poor starting position.


  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,641
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    How the Tories lose the next election...

    Javid backs fee to see GP

    Charging for GP appointments and A&E visits is “crucial” to the survival of the NHS, Sajid Javid has declared. The former health secretary says that without radical and controversial reform, the principles of the NHS “cannot survive much longer” as patients face lengthening waits for...
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sajid-javid-backs-fee-to-see-gp-qjspklvxt

    He’s an idiot.
    Clearly Javid has worked out that if it was just GPs starting to charge you’d get everyone piling into A and E so he doubled down and decided it would be a good idea to expand the charge to A and E . Ignoring the whole point of the NHS ! The way to ensure the survival of the NHS is to remove the Tories from power .
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298

    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?

    Sooty. With Sweep as chancellor (provided his tax returns survive scrutiny).

    Better than your Geoffrey Cox bet. You sure you don’t mean Geoffrey from rainbow?
    I'm not in favour of another sock-puppet, though having Geoffrey's hand up the PM would make a nice change from the death grip of the World Economic Forum.

    Geoffrey Cox to me has good Brexit credentials, talks a good game (very high profile barrister), is old and experienced, and would be a 'uniter'. Michael Howard figure.
    In what way is "having good Brexit credentials" a qualification for anything at all?
    This is why the Tory Party is heading for defeat.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    edited January 20
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 23% of 2019 Conservative voters are now DK compared to just 11% who have switched to Labour, with another 11% who have switched to RefUK too.

    5% of 2019 LDs though have switched to Sunak's Tories, so expect Sunak to be doing better ìn the bluewall than the redwall

    I disagree. I think that’s complete wacky psephology. Or anti Sunak spin - build unrealistic targets for Rishi now, to call him a failure in May is your game isn’t it?

    You still reckon Tories getting 29% of votes and the libdems 12% in the locals, in 103 sleeps time?
    Yes. Will be few RefUK candidates and the seats are mainly in the English shires
    Can we please be clear - are you talking actual votes cast or National Equivalent Vote Share?
    Hope this clear. After 2019 count Tories won 3,564 councillors, control of 93 councils 30 more than Labour, and got 2,985,959 votes which equated to a healthy mid term 28% Projected national equivalent.

    Correct me where wrong, HY has the Tories getting a better share now 29%, the Lib Dems on just 12, on basis he see’s in polls Rishi doing better in Blue Wall than Boris.

    That’s truly bonkers innit? 🤷‍♀️

    Why is an important local Tory like HY not doing normal expectation management, instead talking up a better than last time success for Rishi than last year results? 🤷‍♀️

    If any of those 2,985,959 voters no longer identify as Con voter and feeling disgruntled, and up to give a slap like they been doing in historic by elections, there’s so many options for them isn’t there?
    Healthy? The 2019 local elections saw the Tories lose over 1000 councillors and 44 councils. Their worst locals since 1995.

    Rishi is lucky they have little further to fall voteshare and seat and council loss wise.
    This is the nubs of it - how can you say that? How can you say that 🤦‍♀️

    3,564 councillors, control of 93 councils dependant on getting those three million votes - how many of those three million votes disgruntled and don’t show to lose 750 councillors and 30 councils?

    That’s how you should be spinning it tonight, not 29% and no worse than before, but 600 losses and 20 lost councils a good night in the current circumstances with unprecedented global factors bashing the country?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?

    Next PM if not Starmer won't be anyone but Boris.

    Brady and Baker likely lose their seats at the next election, Cox an outside bet for Conservative Leader of the Opposition but Steve Barclay is more likely in my view
    Boris could well be ruled out from standing. Sunak will still be chopped. By my reckoning that means a new Tory PM.
    He won't, the only alternative who would give the Tories a boost by regaining votes from Labour in the redwall and RefUK is Boris.

    The rest would probably do even worse than Sunak
    Utter rubbish sadly - you have gone completely off the boil since losing Boris. It's not your fault.
    Unless Boris comes back there is no point at all replacing Sunak
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,767
    Terrible, almost as bad as the Lib Dems on 41%.....so I guess OGH couldn't write a "LibDems poised for comeback" thread.....

    I wonder how sticky those shifts are - the Lib Dems having 32% to Labour, while the biggest Con shift is to "don't know" on 23%......which are more likely to return?

    I know people enjoy talking about "extinction level event" for the Tories.....but there may be other candidates....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825
    dixiedean said:

    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?

    Sooty. With Sweep as chancellor (provided his tax returns survive scrutiny).

    Better than your Geoffrey Cox bet. You sure you don’t mean Geoffrey from rainbow?
    I'm not in favour of another sock-puppet, though having Geoffrey's hand up the PM would make a nice change from the death grip of the World Economic Forum.

    Geoffrey Cox to me has good Brexit credentials, talks a good game (very high profile barrister), is old and experienced, and would be a 'uniter'. Michael Howard figure.
    In what way is "having good Brexit credentials" a qualification for anything at all?
    This is why the Tory Party is heading for defeat.
    Going for the Brexit vote is the "catch a falling knife" strategy.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664
    edited January 20
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    How the Tories lose the next election...

    Javid backs fee to see GP

    Charging for GP appointments and A&E visits is “crucial” to the survival of the NHS, Sajid Javid has declared. The former health secretary says that without radical and controversial reform, the principles of the NHS “cannot survive much longer” as patients face lengthening waits for...
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sajid-javid-backs-fee-to-see-gp-qjspklvxt

    He’s an idiot.
    My Dad said not charging “IS the principles of the NHS.”
    Nye Bevan resigned from Attlee's government over prescription charges being introduced, and there has long been co-payments for NHS dentistry (when available at all!) and optometry.

    NHS charges are almost as old as the NHS itself.
    In the long term it’s surely going to be about what works that matters, not ideology. That said, introducing charges for lots more would bring in a whole load of bureaucracy.

    Best health service I ever experienced was in a hospital in Lyon after an accident. Night and day from the UK. But waiting 3 hours for the insurance forms at the end was incredibly frustrating.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    edited January 20
    Pro_Rata said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 23% of 2019 Conservative voters are now DK compared to just 11% who have switched to Labour, with another 11% who have switched to RefUK too.

    5% of 2019 LDs though have switched to Sunak's Tories, so expect Sunak to be doing better ìn the bluewall than the redwall

    I disagree. I think that’s complete wacky psephology. Or anti Sunak spin - build unrealistic targets for Rishi now, to call him a failure in May is your game isn’t it?

    You still reckon Tories getting 29% of votes and the libdems 12% in the locals, in 103 sleeps time?
    Yes. Will be few RefUK candidates and the seats are mainly in the English shires
    Can we please be clear - are you talking actual votes cast or National Equivalent Vote Share?
    Hope this clear. After 2019 count Tories won 3,564 councillors, control of 93 councils 30 more than Labour, and got 2,985,959 votes which equated to a healthy mid term 28% Projected national equivalent.

    Correct me where wrong, HY has the Tories getting a better share now 29%, the Lib Dems on just 12, on basis he see’s in polls Rishi doing better in Blue Wall than Boris.

    That’s truly bonkers innit? 🤷‍♀️

    Why is an important local Tory like HY not doing normal expectation management, instead talking up a better than last time success for Rishi than last year results? 🤷‍♀️

    If any of those 2,985,959 voters no longer identify as Con voter and feeling disgruntled, and up to give a slap like they been doing in historic by elections, there’s so many options for them isn’t there?
    Hi Moon,

    I was looking at this today - in the lead up to the May 19 elections the LDs were still polling at only around 9% and the 19% PNS was a surprise on the upside So the potential for LD to exceed their polling levels, and for the Tories to come in below theirs is non negligible.

    It was subsequent to the May elections that Brexit was confirmed delayed, the polling went haywire with LD and BXP poll leads, and
    the TMay fatal Euro elections followed a few
    weeks after.

    I've worked up a simplish method for assessing local by-elections basically averaging the NEV/PNS last time (which is variously based on 2019 / 21 or 22 for different elections) with the average swing for those where Lab and Con are defending their position.

    The 7 by elections in January so far suggest a national share of LAB 42 CON 21 with one week to go. The December margin was somewhat narrower, but I do expect these to bounce around a bit.

    42/21 with almost any LD share would bring heavy Con losses from a poor starting position.


    The last Yougov before the 2019 local elections had the LDs on 13%, as above the latest Yougov has the LDs on just 9%

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Remember too these are local elections where there will also be some protest vote against unpopular southern LD led councils the LDs won in 2019, even to local Tories
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664

    Terrible, almost as bad as the Lib Dems on 41%.....so I guess OGH couldn't write a "LibDems poised for comeback" thread.....

    I wonder how sticky those shifts are - the Lib Dems having 32% to Labour, while the biggest Con shift is to "don't know" on 23%......which are more likely to return?

    I know people enjoy talking about "extinction level event" for the Tories.....but there may be other candidates....

    Lib Dems need to go full on rejoin I think at the next election. Not because that’s a realistic aim but because millions of people still want to send a big pro-EU message.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,506
    dixiedean said:

    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?

    Sooty. With Sweep as chancellor (provided his tax returns survive scrutiny).

    Better than your Geoffrey Cox bet. You sure you don’t mean Geoffrey from rainbow?
    I'm not in favour of another sock-puppet, though having Geoffrey's hand up the PM would make a nice change from the death grip of the World Economic Forum.

    Geoffrey Cox to me has good Brexit credentials, talks a good game (very high profile barrister), is old and experienced, and would be a 'uniter'. Michael Howard figure.
    In what way is "having good Brexit credentials" a qualification for anything at all?
    This is why the Tory Party is heading for defeat.
    I would have thought that was obvious. We have a quasi-remainer (he has Spads from the looniest of loony pro-EU pressure groups), from the 'dull competence' Meeksite faction in the leadership right now. Given that it has been a depressing disaster, naturally that wing of the party (at least its extreme vestiges) will go, though a courtesy job should be offered to Sunak, though I feel not to Hunt. The new leader will obviously have to have good Brexit credentials, but probably not furniture-chewingly so.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    edited January 20
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?

    Sooty. With Sweep as chancellor (provided his tax returns survive scrutiny).

    Better than your Geoffrey Cox bet. You sure you don’t mean Geoffrey from rainbow?
    I'm not in favour of another sock-puppet, though having Geoffrey's hand up the PM would make a nice change from the death grip of the World Economic Forum.

    Geoffrey Cox to me has good Brexit credentials, talks a good game (very high profile barrister), is old and experienced, and would be a 'uniter'. Michael Howard figure.
    In what way is "having good Brexit credentials" a qualification for anything at all?
    This is why the Tory Party is heading for defeat.
    Going for the Brexit vote is the "catch a falling knife" strategy.
    Yes.
    But also it doesn't mean anything.
    You're either competent or not.
    But a purity test is apparently the vital criteria for many of the rump Tories.
    Little surprise they can't find anyone halfway competent. Since Brexit Boy when it was an obscure niche Rishi is now deemed unsound on the topic.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 23% of 2019 Conservative voters are now DK compared to just 11% who have switched to Labour, with another 11% who have switched to RefUK too.

    5% of 2019 LDs though have switched to Sunak's Tories, so expect Sunak to be doing better ìn the bluewall than the redwall

    I disagree. I think that’s complete wacky psephology. Or anti Sunak spin - build unrealistic targets for Rishi now, to call him a failure in May is your game isn’t it?

    You still reckon Tories getting 29% of votes and the libdems 12% in the locals, in 103 sleeps time?
    Yes. Will be few RefUK candidates and the seats are mainly in the English shires
    There you go again. Tories 29% Lib Dems 12%. 🤷‍♀️

    What about my argument the local voting won’t match Westminster polling and it’s not just 2019 it needs to fit with, but trend or form over the last couple of years too?

    Last year Lib Dems got 19% 2019 they got 19% so by what reasoning do they Slump to 12%? And that extra 7 comes expense of Tories in Blue Wall, meaning Tories 25% or lower.

    We couldn’t be further apart in figures if we were Donetsk and Arsenal Negotiators
    My rule of thumb is that the LDs always do about 6% better in the locals than in a GE.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    edited January 20

    dixiedean said:

    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?

    Sooty. With Sweep as chancellor (provided his tax returns survive scrutiny).

    Better than your Geoffrey Cox bet. You sure you don’t mean Geoffrey from rainbow?
    I'm not in favour of another sock-puppet, though having Geoffrey's hand up the PM would make a nice change from the death grip of the World Economic Forum.

    Geoffrey Cox to me has good Brexit credentials, talks a good game (very high profile barrister), is old and experienced, and would be a 'uniter'. Michael Howard figure.
    In what way is "having good Brexit credentials" a qualification for anything at all?
    This is why the Tory Party is heading for defeat.
    I would have thought that was obvious. We have a quasi-remainer (he has Spads from the looniest of loony pro-EU pressure groups), from the 'dull competence' Meeksite faction in the leadership right now. Given that it has been a depressing disaster, naturally that wing of the party (at least its extreme vestiges) will go, though a courtesy job should be offered to Sunak, though I feel not to Hunt. The new leader will obviously have to have good Brexit credentials, but probably not furniture-chewingly so.
    And that's why you deserve to lose.
    We're having a record historic real terms pay cut.
    And every sentence was about Brexit.
    Nobody cares any more.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,506
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?

    Next PM if not Starmer won't be anyone but Boris.

    Brady and Baker likely lose their seats at the next election, Cox an outside bet for Conservative Leader of the Opposition but Steve Barclay is more likely in my view
    Boris could well be ruled out from standing. Sunak will still be chopped. By my reckoning that means a new Tory PM.
    He won't, the only alternative who would give the Tories a boost by regaining votes from Labour in the redwall and RefUK is Boris.

    The rest would probably do even worse than Sunak
    Utter rubbish sadly - you have gone completely off the boil since losing Boris. It's not your fault.
    Unless Boris comes back there is no point at all replacing Sunak
    That's emotion talking. It clouds your judgement.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825
    TimS said:

    Terrible, almost as bad as the Lib Dems on 41%.....so I guess OGH couldn't write a "LibDems poised for comeback" thread.....

    I wonder how sticky those shifts are - the Lib Dems having 32% to Labour, while the biggest Con shift is to "don't know" on 23%......which are more likely to return?

    I know people enjoy talking about "extinction level event" for the Tories.....but there may be other candidates....

    Lib Dems need to go full on rejoin I think at the next election. Not because that’s a realistic aim but because millions of people still want to send a big pro-EU message.
    I think EEA and SM is the first step, with Rejoin as the ultimate goal. I am quite happy that is party policy.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?

    Next PM if not Starmer won't be anyone but Boris.

    Brady and Baker likely lose their seats at the next election, Cox an outside bet for Conservative Leader of the Opposition but Steve Barclay is more likely in my view
    Boris could well be ruled out from standing. Sunak will still be chopped. By my reckoning that means a new Tory PM.
    He won't, the only alternative who would give the Tories a boost by regaining votes from Labour in the redwall and RefUK is Boris.

    The rest would probably do even worse than Sunak
    Utter rubbish sadly - you have gone completely off the boil since losing Boris. It's not your fault.
    Unless Boris comes back there is no point at all replacing Sunak
    Mourdant would deffo get more GE votes than Rishi, but in the right places where Boris would? 🤔

    I agree Boris factor could either go wrong, cause of that insensitive partying, but based on how clear he is in his upbeat messaging, great campaigner and much loved still in marginal constituencies, he could get better result than Penny. It matters where the votes are, not necessary how many, and that’s the appeal of Boris and why Starmer and Labour were glad to see him out, and Tories should have been in two minds to see him out. Mid terms do throw up bad polling stats regardless how GE will go, was Lady Thatcher any more popular than Boris mid term ahead of her 1983 landslide triumph.

    As soon as it looks like Boris will lead Tories into the next election it is the Labour supporters on PB and everywhere getting upset and angry about it - and that’s so telling isn’t it? That’s the Black Sean they actually fear.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    Terrible, almost as bad as the Lib Dems on 41%.....so I guess OGH couldn't write a "LibDems poised for comeback" thread.....

    I wonder how sticky those shifts are - the Lib Dems having 32% to Labour, while the biggest Con shift is to "don't know" on 23%......which are more likely to return?

    I know people enjoy talking about "extinction level event" for the Tories.....but there may be other candidates....

    Lib Dems need to go full on rejoin I think at the next election. Not because that’s a realistic aim but because millions of people still want to send a big pro-EU message.
    I think EEA and SM is the first step, with Rejoin as the ultimate goal. I am quite happy that is party policy.
    I agree in policy terms, but we need to give voters in the blue wall something to vote for.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    edited January 20
    47/31 is arguably the real position at the moment since most Reform voters will probably return to the Tories.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643
    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    Terrible, almost as bad as the Lib Dems on 41%.....so I guess OGH couldn't write a "LibDems poised for comeback" thread.....

    I wonder how sticky those shifts are - the Lib Dems having 32% to Labour, while the biggest Con shift is to "don't know" on 23%......which are more likely to return?

    I know people enjoy talking about "extinction level event" for the Tories.....but there may be other candidates....

    Lib Dems need to go full on rejoin I think at the next election. Not because that’s a realistic aim but because millions of people still want to send a big pro-EU message.
    I think EEA and SM is the first step, with Rejoin as the ultimate goal. I am quite happy that is party policy.
    I agree in policy terms, but we need to give voters in the blue wall something to vote for.
    Not sure.

    EU ultra-ism probably cost the LDs votes last election. Their policy of unilateral re-entry was bonkers.

    Keir looks like he will give the LDs plenty of space to look more EU-philic.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664
    MikeL said:

    It's strange how public opinion sometimes moves in the precise opposite direction than what "experts" expect.

    We were told that the Gender Recognition Bill was a trap - deliberately get the UK Government to block it and that will boost the case for independence.

    Well today Survation has Independence at Yes 46, No 54.

    Now we know the Gender Recognition Bill is unpopular in Scotland - so might it be that Scots are thinking it's actually a good thing being in the UK - as the UK Government is able to block this legislation they don't want.

    And, crucially, if they weren't in the UK, what other crazy (and much more serious) things might the Scottish Government do which couldn't then be blocked?

    If the next few years see the FPTP bubbles of the Tories and SNP burst we’ll be none the worst off.

    If the SNP command 50% of Scottish votes then great, give them 50% of seats. Not almost all, with weird tactical voting in the remainder.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,486
    Andy_JS said:

    47/31 is arguably the real position at the moment since most Reform voters will probably return to the Tories.

    Who will you be backing Andy?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    Terrible, almost as bad as the Lib Dems on 41%.....so I guess OGH couldn't write a "LibDems poised for comeback" thread.....

    I wonder how sticky those shifts are - the Lib Dems having 32% to Labour, while the biggest Con shift is to "don't know" on 23%......which are more likely to return?

    I know people enjoy talking about "extinction level event" for the Tories.....but there may be other candidates....

    Lib Dems need to go full on rejoin I think at the next election. Not because that’s a realistic aim but because millions of people still want to send a big pro-EU message.
    I think EEA and SM is the first step, with Rejoin as the ultimate goal. I am quite happy that is party policy.
    I agree in policy terms, but we need to give voters in the blue wall something to vote for.
    Not sure.

    EU ultra-ism probably cost the LDs votes last election. Their policy of unilateral re-entry was bonkers.

    Keir looks like he will give the LDs plenty of space to look more EU-philic.
    All the surveys post election said fear of Corbyn cost LDs the seats. The party went up in huge numbers of seats, making murd progress than any other party.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?

    Sooty. With Sweep as chancellor (provided his tax returns survive scrutiny).

    Better than your Geoffrey Cox bet. You sure you don’t mean Geoffrey from rainbow?
    I'm not in favour of another sock-puppet, though having Geoffrey's hand up the PM would make a nice change from the death grip of the World Economic Forum.

    Geoffrey Cox to me has good Brexit credentials, talks a good game (very high profile barrister), is old and experienced, and would be a 'uniter'. Michael Howard figure.
    In what way is "having good Brexit credentials" a qualification for anything at all?
    This is why the Tory Party is heading for defeat.
    Going for the Brexit vote is the "catch a falling knife" strategy.
    Yes.
    But also it doesn't mean anything.
    You're either competent or not.
    But a purity test is apparently the vital criteria for many of the rump Tories.
    Little surprise they can't find anyone halfway competent. Since Brexit Boy when it was an obscure niche Rishi is now deemed unsound on the topic.
    Not to mention they seem completely unable to define what Brexit orthodoxy is supposed to be in any positive sense.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?

    Next PM if not Starmer won't be anyone but Boris.

    Brady and Baker likely lose their seats at the next election, Cox an outside bet for Conservative Leader of the Opposition but Steve Barclay is more likely in my view
    Boris could well be ruled out from standing. Sunak will still be chopped. By my reckoning that means a new Tory PM.
    He won't, the only alternative who would give the Tories a boost by regaining votes from Labour in the redwall and RefUK is Boris.

    The rest would probably do even worse than Sunak
    Utter rubbish sadly - you have gone completely off the boil since losing Boris. It's not your fault.
    Unless Boris comes back there is no point at all replacing Sunak
    Mourdant would deffo get more GE votes than Rishi, but in the right places where Boris would? 🤔

    I agree Boris factor could either go wrong, cause of that insensitive partying, but based on how clear he is in his upbeat messaging, great campaigner and much loved still in marginal constituencies, he could get better result than Penny. It matters where the votes are, not necessary how many, and that’s the appeal of Boris and why Starmer and Labour were glad to see him out, and Tories should have been in two minds to see him out. Mid terms do throw up bad polling stats regardless how GE will go, was Lady Thatcher any more popular than Boris mid term ahead of her 1983 landslide triumph.

    As soon as it looks like Boris will lead Tories into the next election it is the Labour supporters on PB and everywhere getting upset and angry about it - and that’s so telling isn’t it? That’s the Black Sean they actually fear.
    Some truth in that, as the last leadership election proved Mordaunt is too Woke for Tory MPs and members. The only viable alternative is Boris before the next general election
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,506
    edited January 20
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?

    Sooty. With Sweep as chancellor (provided his tax returns survive scrutiny).

    Better than your Geoffrey Cox bet. You sure you don’t mean Geoffrey from rainbow?
    I'm not in favour of another sock-puppet, though having Geoffrey's hand up the PM would make a nice change from the death grip of the World Economic Forum.

    Geoffrey Cox to me has good Brexit credentials, talks a good game (very high profile barrister), is old and experienced, and would be a 'uniter'. Michael Howard figure.
    In what way is "having good Brexit credentials" a qualification for anything at all?
    This is why the Tory Party is heading for defeat.
    I would have thought that was obvious. We have a quasi-remainer (he has Spads from the looniest of loony pro-EU pressure groups), from the 'dull competence' Meeksite faction in the leadership right now. Given that it has been a depressing disaster, naturally that wing of the party (at least its extreme vestiges) will go, though a courtesy job should be offered to Sunak, though I feel not to Hunt. The new leader will obviously have to have good Brexit credentials, but probably not furniture-chewingly so.
    And that's why you deserve to lose.
    We're having a record historic real terms pay cut.
    And every sentence was about Brexit.
    Nobody cares any more.
    We are having a record real terms pay cut due to the price of energy. Short of hasty peace with Russia and sending Putin a jumbo fruit basket (which no-one is advocating) the way out of that predicament is to set in place a coherent strategy to unleash domestic fossil fuel supply, along with a plan to even out the renewables supply by fixing its deeply broken and subsidy-addicted market. We're not doing that precisely because our agencies and quangos (with the acquiescence if not the active support of Sunak's Government) are still comitted to a single market in energy, where Britain will import from the continent to support our needs. A disaster for many obvious reasons. So a solution does indeed depend on the will to set a new, independent agenda for the UK, possibly leading to conflict with powerful internal and external stakeholders. Hence 'good Brexit credentials'.

    The same is true of the economy (peoples' number 1 concern), and immigration (also fairly high on the list).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    In fact. I haven't heard anyone at all mention Brexit for six months outside of this board.
    People with full time jobs are talking about when they put the heating on.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Germany has become the roadblock at the heart of Europe
    Berlin is consciously and deliberately stalling on sending Kyiv battle tanks.
    https://www.newstatesman.com/quickfire/2023/01/germany-ukraine-tanks-roadblock-europe
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?

    Sooty. With Sweep as chancellor (provided his tax returns survive scrutiny).

    Better than your Geoffrey Cox bet. You sure you don’t mean Geoffrey from rainbow?
    I'm not in favour of another sock-puppet, though having Geoffrey's hand up the PM would make a nice change from the death grip of the World Economic Forum.

    Geoffrey Cox to me has good Brexit credentials, talks a good game (very high profile barrister), is old and experienced, and would be a 'uniter'. Michael Howard figure.
    In what way is "having good Brexit credentials" a qualification for anything at all?
    This is why the Tory Party is heading for defeat.
    I would have thought that was obvious. We have a quasi-remainer (he has Spads from the looniest of loony pro-EU pressure groups), from the 'dull competence' Meeksite faction in the leadership right now. Given that it has been a depressing disaster, naturally that wing of the party (at least its extreme vestiges) will go, though a courtesy job should be offered to Sunak, though I feel not to Hunt. The new leader will obviously have to have good Brexit credentials, but probably not furniture-chewingly so.
    And that's why you deserve to lose.
    We're having a record historic real terms pay cut.
    And every sentence was about Brexit.
    Nobody cares any more.
    We are having a record real terms pay cut due to the price of energy. Short of hasty peace with Russia and sending Putin a jumbo fruit basket (which no-one is advocating) the way out of that predicament is to set in place a coherent strategy to unleash domestic fossil fuel supply, along with a plan to even out the renewables supply by fixing its deeply broken and subsidy-addicted market. We're not doing that precisely because our agencies and quangos (with the acquiescence if not the active support of Sunak's Government) are still comitted to a single market in energy, where Britain will import from the continent to support our needs. A disaster for many obvious reasons. So a solution does indeed depend on the will to set a new, independent agenda for the UK, possibly leading to conflict with powerful internal and external stakeholders. Hence 'good Brexit credentials'.

    The same is true of the economy (peoples' number 1 concern), and immigration (also fairly high on the list).
    Good luck with the usual three word slogan.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Scholz is not getting a good press today.

    https://twitter.com/bueti/status/1616429844891598849
    What the @Bundeskanzler people want everybody to think:
    "Here’s a world leader being sovereign enough to not be driven, pushed or rushed into acting by others, as reasonable as their reckoning might be."

    What most observers see:
    "A man who only acts when there is no other way. That comes at a cost: of alienating friends and allies internationally, irritating his own coalition, and being forever late."

    I'd add: Scholz promises "Keine Alleingänge!" But his style of communication says the opposite.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    edited January 20

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?

    Next PM if not Starmer won't be anyone but Boris.

    Brady and Baker likely lose their seats at the next election, Cox an outside bet for Conservative Leader of the Opposition but Steve Barclay is more likely in my view
    Boris could well be ruled out from standing. Sunak will still be chopped. By my reckoning that means a new Tory PM.
    He won't, the only alternative who would give the Tories a boost by regaining votes from Labour in the redwall and RefUK is Boris.

    The rest would probably do even worse than Sunak
    Utter rubbish sadly - you have gone completely off the boil since losing Boris. It's not your fault.
    Unless Boris comes back there is no point at all replacing Sunak
    Mourdant would deffo get more GE votes than Rishi, but in the right places where Boris would? 🤔

    I agree Boris factor could either go wrong, cause of that insensitive partying, but based on how clear he is in his upbeat messaging, great campaigner and much loved still in marginal constituencies, he could get better result than Penny. It matters where the votes are, not necessary how many, and that’s the appeal of Boris and why Starmer and Labour were glad to see him out, and Tories should have been in two minds to see him out. Mid terms do throw up bad polling stats regardless how GE will go, was Lady Thatcher any more popular than Boris mid term ahead of her 1983 landslide triumph.

    As soon as it looks like Boris will lead Tories into the next election it is the Labour supporters on PB and everywhere getting upset and angry about it - and that’s so telling isn’t it? That’s the Black Sean they actually fear.
    Ditch Sunak for Johnson? Please do.
    Nailed on two term Labour government.
    The upset and angry elsewhere will be elsewhere.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664
    Nigelb said:

    Scholz is not getting a good press today.

    https://twitter.com/bueti/status/1616429844891598849
    What the @Bundeskanzler people want everybody to think:
    "Here’s a world leader being sovereign enough to not be driven, pushed or rushed into acting by others, as reasonable as their reckoning might be."

    What most observers see:
    "A man who only acts when there is no other way. That comes at a cost: of alienating friends and allies internationally, irritating his own coalition, and being forever late."

    I'd add: Scholz promises "Keine Alleingänge!" But his style of communication says the opposite.

    It’s a shame. I feel like there’s an opportunity here though. For French leadership of Europe. Cometh the hour, cometh the Macron. Allez les bleus.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,081
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?

    Next PM if not Starmer won't be anyone but Boris.

    Brady and Baker likely lose their seats at the next election, Cox an outside bet for Conservative Leader of the Opposition but Steve Barclay is more likely in my view
    Boris could well be ruled out from standing. Sunak will still be chopped. By my reckoning that means a new Tory PM.
    He won't, the only alternative who would give the Tories a boost by regaining votes from Labour in the redwall and RefUK is Boris.

    The rest would probably do even worse than Sunak
    Utter rubbish sadly - you have gone completely off the boil since losing Boris. It's not your fault.
    Unless Boris comes back there is no point at all replacing Sunak
    Mourdant would deffo get more GE votes than Rishi, but in the right places where Boris would? 🤔

    I agree Boris factor could either go wrong, cause of that insensitive partying, but based on how clear he is in his upbeat messaging, great campaigner and much loved still in marginal constituencies, he could get better result than Penny. It matters where the votes are, not necessary how many, and that’s the appeal of Boris and why Starmer and Labour were glad to see him out, and Tories should have been in two minds to see him out. Mid terms do throw up bad polling stats regardless how GE will go, was Lady Thatcher any more popular than Boris mid term ahead of her 1983 landslide triumph.

    As soon as it looks like Boris will lead Tories into the next election it is the Labour supporters on PB and everywhere getting upset and angry about it - and that’s so telling isn’t it? That’s the Black Sean they actually fear.
    Ditch Sunak for Johnson? Please do.
    Nailed on two term Labour government.
    Upset and angry elsewhere.
    Boris isn't coming back.

    It will be Rishi v Keir.

    As per my post earlier today I expect LAB to get 325 to 340.

    Then let's see what happens after that.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    TimS said:

    I can report bad news on sheep from this week. It’s frustrating see a sheep licking and nuzzling a clearly stone dead lamb, and later find the sheep herself has died. Vet says keep giving them calcium and nutrients. If this is same in a bigger picture (though don’t look like it talking to others, and I don’t want to start a conspiracy theory as that won’t be professional) my theory is last years wacky weather may have deprived sheep of good things they needed to build up from grazing. If you need to be ready for Olympics like sheep need to be ready for pregnancy and birth, no point getting into training with just weeks to go.

    Last years wacky weather has certainly impacted this years jump season - Stodge likely to back me up on this - as although it looked like wet weather it has been dry down beneath surface and soaked up wet like a sponge, so only recently turning proper soft helping those who prefer that. That’s my excuse anyway.

    I was tempted to get some sheep for the vineyard but their apparent death wish has put me off.
    They do die. They can be startled and run and fall over and die. They can give birth and die. They can get their heads stuck in a fence going for the grass on the other side and you find them dead with sad strangled face.

    They are a long way from feral now, they are genetically changed to be domesticated. Maybe if they were feral and had horns they were to be more street wise and less afraid? I think feral sheep are more sterile so maybe we changed them genetically through breeding for breeding and this makes them more vulnerable to death because we are greedy for more sheep? I don’t know, I’m not Charles Darwin.

    I know it’s political joke being savaged by a dead sheep - but this week I was bit by a dead one and it’s a nuisance as still hurting.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 1,059
    Since you are discussing tanks for Ukraine, let me put up this question for military experts here to comment on: Would Ukraine be better off with fewer models of tanks? They would then save on training and supply, it seems to me.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?

    Next PM if not Starmer won't be anyone but Boris.

    Brady and Baker likely lose their seats at the next election, Cox an outside bet for Conservative Leader of the Opposition but Steve Barclay is more likely in my view
    Boris could well be ruled out from standing. Sunak will still be chopped. By my reckoning that means a new Tory PM.
    He won't, the only alternative who would give the Tories a boost by regaining votes from Labour in the redwall and RefUK is Boris.

    The rest would probably do even worse than Sunak
    Utter rubbish sadly - you have gone completely off the boil since losing Boris. It's not your fault.
    Unless Boris comes back there is no point at all replacing Sunak
    As soon as it looks like Boris will lead Tories into the next election it is the Labour supporters on PB and everywhere getting upset and angry about it - and that’s so telling isn’t it? That’s the Black Sean they actually fear.
    That's a load of nonsense (and for the record I've never voted Labour before but have voted Conservative).

    With incumbents attacking opponents you always get someone going 'The reason X attack Y is because they fear Y'.

    On rare occasions that might be true, obviously the incumbent will need to attach their opponents regadless. But it seems much more likely to me that when someone says they dislike Boris, or Starmer, or Corbyn, or whoever, it's because they mean what they say. Especially when they have policy or other reasons, such as suitability, for their position. Remember the brief flurry of people trying to say the reason people attacked Corbyn all the time was they thought he would win, rather than his inherent qualities?

    On this occasion its even stupider than usual, because it presumes no other reason people might dislike the idea of Boris coming back, and instead places anyone raising that point as both a Labour supporter and one fearing his return.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scholz is not getting a good press today.

    https://twitter.com/bueti/status/1616429844891598849
    What the @Bundeskanzler people want everybody to think:
    "Here’s a world leader being sovereign enough to not be driven, pushed or rushed into acting by others, as reasonable as their reckoning might be."

    What most observers see:
    "A man who only acts when there is no other way. That comes at a cost: of alienating friends and allies internationally, irritating his own coalition, and being forever late."

    I'd add: Scholz promises "Keine Alleingänge!" But his style of communication says the opposite.

    It’s a shame. I feel like there’s an opportunity here though. For French leadership of Europe. Cometh the hour, cometh the Macron. Allez les bleus.
    Impossible. Macron has lost his majority and the French Parliament, and is beset by internal problems

    He’s also a lame duck in term 2 and his greatest fear is being replaced by the determined Ms Le Pen

    Which is really quite likely
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    Nigelb said:

    Scholz is not getting a good press today.

    https://twitter.com/bueti/status/1616429844891598849
    What the @Bundeskanzler people want everybody to think:
    "Here’s a world leader being sovereign enough to not be driven, pushed or rushed into acting by others, as reasonable as their reckoning might be."

    What most observers see:
    "A man who only acts when there is no other way. That comes at a cost: of alienating friends and allies internationally, irritating his own coalition, and being forever late."

    I'd add: Scholz promises "Keine Alleingänge!" But his style of communication says the opposite.



    Looks like the German equivalent of the Yes Prime Minister checklist

    1) Nothing is going to happen
    2) Something may be about to happen but we should do nothing about it
    3) Maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we can do
    4) Maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 1,059
    Completely off topic, but I thought most of you would appreciate some potential good news:
    "Two drug companies are seeking approval from the Food and Drug Administration that may provide what amounts to a cure." (For sickle cell disease)
    source$: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/17/health/sickle-cell-cure-brings-mix-of-anxiety-and-hope.html

    For some reason, Gina Kolata, who is usually a pretty good reporter, focused, not on these potential cures, but on sufferers who weren’t sure they would take the cures, since the disease is so much a part of their identities.

    But the potential good news is stll there — and there have been some experimental cures, already. (I asume these potential cures, if they work, would make a big difference in West Africa.)

    ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sickle_cell_disease )
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited January 21
    There's something more about the Constance Marten case for sure. Two hundred police are reportedly looking for her. Her father is calling for her to "hand herself in" to the police, yet neither she nor her partner are alleged to be suspected of any connection with any crime whatsoever, whether as principal perps, accomplices, or even just witnesses.

    Why are the police even involved at all? Let alone 200 of them.

    Her partner Mark Gordon is referred to as a rapist or in bureaucratic w*nker talk a "convicted sex offender", which he is, but that was 33 years ago when he was a TEENAGER and he served his 20 year sentence. He came out of prison in the USA in 2010.

    Surely the man can now marry, father children with, or elope with who he likes.

    The media are totally whooping it up about two people daring to be "off the grid", presumably not using known smartphones, paying for stuff in cash, and trying not to be caught identifiably on surveillance camera.

    Are any of those actions unlawful? No, they are not.

    That is all lawful activity.

    That point is of course viewed as wimpy woky lefty.
    Just go "whoop" when the police "hunt" someone, or you're a terrorist.

    Ms Marten's dad sounds like a right tosser: "Darling Constance even though we remain estranged at the moment, I stand by, as I have always done and as the family has always done, to do whatever is necessary for your safe return to us. I beseech you to find a way to turn yourself and your wee one in to the police as soon as possible, so you and he or she can be protected. Only then can a process of healing and recovery begin, however long it may take, however difficult it may be."

    "Yourself and your wee one". Get it? The posh family doesn't accept that Constance's husband and the father of her baby is worthy of recognition in either of those roles...and oh look, he's black.

    This is all like shark chum for the readership of the gutter press - complete with a photo of a black man with words printed near it such as "rapist" etc.

    It's like we're back in the Jim Crow southern states of the USA in the 1950s.

    Just leave these two people alone.

    Why is public money being spent on hunting them?

    Can't the police concentrate on catching actual criminals?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    dixiedean said:

    I have tiny bets on Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, and Graham Brady (that's a pound I'll never see again) for next PM. Anyone else on anyone interesting?

    Sooty. With Sweep as chancellor (provided his tax returns survive scrutiny).

    Better than your Geoffrey Cox bet. You sure you don’t mean Geoffrey from rainbow?
    I'm not in favour of another sock-puppet, though having Geoffrey's hand up the PM would make a nice change from the death grip of the World Economic Forum.

    Geoffrey Cox to me has good Brexit credentials, talks a good game (very high profile barrister), is old and experienced, and would be a 'uniter'. Michael Howard figure.
    In what way is "having good Brexit credentials" a qualification for anything at all?
    This is why the Tory Party is heading for defeat.
    Good Brexit credentials don't even qualify them for the Tory job. Sunak was referred to on here as a Remainer Traitor despite impeccable Brexit credentials, and it seems likely some of the members who voted against him felt similarly.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,810
    dixiedean said:

    In fact. I haven't heard anyone at all mention Brexit for six months outside of this board.
    People with full time jobs are talking about when they put the heating on.

    I'll tell you another thing I haven't heard for almost a year now - hardcore pro-Russians or pro-Chinese describing themselves as tankies when they fantasised about crushing all opposition.

    I suppose the turret throwing Olympics of last winter has put paid to that wet dream forever.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    French prez elex

    Le Pen is 2nd fave. I’d have her as slight favourite. I reckon by 2026 the French will be thinking, Ah fuck it, give her a go, why not?

    She’s running the Opposition in the French Parliament and doing it with some discipline. I don’t see a strong coherent rival to her

    But of course it is years away….


  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    Pro_Rata said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 23% of 2019 Conservative voters are now DK compared to just 11% who have switched to Labour, with another 11% who have switched to RefUK too.

    5% of 2019 LDs though have switched to Sunak's Tories, so expect Sunak to be doing better ìn the bluewall than the redwall

    I disagree. I think that’s complete wacky psephology. Or anti Sunak spin - build unrealistic targets for Rishi now, to call him a failure in May is your game isn’t it?

    You still reckon Tories getting 29% of votes and the libdems 12% in the locals, in 103 sleeps time?
    Yes. Will be few RefUK candidates and the seats are mainly in the English shires
    Can we please be clear - are you talking actual votes cast or National Equivalent Vote Share?
    Hope this clear. After 2019 count Tories won 3,564 councillors, control of 93 councils 30 more than Labour, and got 2,985,959 votes which equated to a healthy mid term 28% Projected national equivalent.

    Correct me where wrong, HY has the Tories getting a better share now 29%, the Lib Dems on just 12, on basis he see’s in polls Rishi doing better in Blue Wall than Boris.

    That’s truly bonkers innit? 🤷‍♀️

    Why is an important local Tory like HY not doing normal expectation management, instead talking up a better than last time success for Rishi than last year results? 🤷‍♀️

    If any of those 2,985,959 voters no longer identify as Con voter and feeling disgruntled, and up to give a slap like they been doing in historic by elections, there’s so many options for them isn’t there?
    Hi Moon,

    I was looking at this today - in the lead up to the May 19 elections the LDs were still polling at only around 9% and the 19% PNS was a surprise on the upside So the potential for LD to exceed their polling levels, and for the Tories to come in below theirs is non negligible.

    It was subsequent to the May elections that Brexit was confirmed delayed, the polling went haywire with LD and BXP poll leads, and
    the TMay fatal Euro elections followed a few
    weeks after.

    I've worked up a simplish method for assessing local by-elections basically averaging the NEV/PNS last time (which is variously based on 2019 / 21 or 22 for different elections) with the average swing for those where Lab and Con are defending their position.

    The 7 by elections in January so far suggest a national share of LAB 42 CON 21 with one week to go. The December margin was somewhat narrower, but I do expect these to bounce around a bit.

    42/21 with almost any LD share would bring heavy Con losses from a poor starting position.


    Thank you for the support. But it’s a lot more than not negligible that Libdems get more than 12%.

    Where HY is mistaken is turning a fact “Sunak doing better in Blue Wall than Boris” into a don’t know he can be sure of of actual out house down polling station actual Tory vote. It’s not vote switching that leads to mid term beat ups but stay always.

    Same with westminster by elections Labour won last year. As Labour PB were chairing each other around the virtual room I explained it’s not based on big switch of voters, but stay at home Tory’s and it made them angry. But I was actually right. In last years locals and westminster by elections in midlands and north east, there was patchy vote switching to Labour, but a lot of Tory no shows that drove the changes, and it will likely have much of that this year too in Red Wall.

    In Blue Wall, a lot of it is former Tory Remania - so HY is right they associate Sunak less with Brexit they hate than they associate Boris, but by staying home and switching to other options they will still give Sunak a proper kicking in 102 days time.

    Lib Dems got 19% both in 2019 and last year and ain’t dropping to 12 this time. And if it is around 19% this time that is expense of Tories in blue wall, ain’t it?
  • If Starmer had been fined the Tories here would never let it go
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited January 21
    Leon said:

    French prez elex

    Le Pen is 2nd fave. I’d have her as slight favourite. I reckon by 2026 the French will be thinking, Ah fuck it, give her a go, why not?

    She’s running the Opposition in the French Parliament and doing it with some discipline. I don’t see a strong coherent rival to her

    But of course it is years away….


    Le Pen wants France to return to being outside the NATO command structure, so if she were to win the presidency tomorrow the "Bad Germany for not sending tanks to fight Russia" brigade would be able to chant about French cowardice, which they would probably enjoy even more. (Add in some lazy Italians or Spaniards and they'd be in seventh heaven.) But as you say, 2027 is a very long time away.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    edited January 21
    Leon said:

    French prez elex

    Le Pen is 2nd fave. I’d have her as slight favourite. I reckon by 2026 the French will be thinking, Ah fuck it, give her a go, why not?

    She’s running the Opposition in the French Parliament and doing it with some discipline. I don’t see a strong coherent rival to her

    But of course it is years away….


    2002 - Jean Marie Le Pen - 18%
    2017 - Marine Le Pen - 34%
    2022 - Marine Le Pen - 42%

    2022 definitely felt more significant than her 8% rise would suggest, due to the legislative election breakthrough. They only got 8 seats in 2017 and 89 in 2022.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    Leon said:

    French prez elex

    Le Pen is 2nd fave. I’d have her as slight favourite. I reckon by 2026 the French will be thinking, Ah fuck it, give her a go, why not?

    She’s running the Opposition in the French Parliament and doing it with some discipline. I don’t see a strong coherent rival to her

    But of course it is years away….


    Michel Houellebecq is usually a good forecaster of what's going to happen in France. He predicted a terrorist attack the day before it happened IIRC.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    edited January 21

    If Starmer had been fined the Tories here would never let it go

    Labour don't have to let it go (nor do Sunak's internal opponents). It's a deeply embarrasing cock up for him.

    But at the end of the day it's very hard to get worked up about. If someone tried a 'think's he's above the law' gambit it just wouldn't stack for me, I'd think it more he was a clueless twonk for that moment. And that's a different level of critique.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited January 21
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    French prez elex

    Le Pen is 2nd fave. I’d have her as slight favourite. I reckon by 2026 the French will be thinking, Ah fuck it, give her a go, why not?

    She’s running the Opposition in the French Parliament and doing it with some discipline. I don’t see a strong coherent rival to her

    But of course it is years away….


    2002 - Jean Marie Le Pen - 18%
    2017 - Marine Le Pen - 34%
    2022 - Marine Le Pen - 42%

    2022 definitely felt more significant than her 8% rise would suggest, due to the legislative election breakthrough. They only got 8 seats in 2017 and 89 in 2022.
    The problem with the "president's party" En Marche is what will happen to it when EM isn't the president. It could just disappear in a puff.
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    French prez elex

    Le Pen is 2nd fave. I’d have her as slight favourite. I reckon by 2026 the French will be thinking, Ah fuck it, give her a go, why not?

    She’s running the Opposition in the French Parliament and doing it with some discipline. I don’t see a strong coherent rival to her

    But of course it is years away….

    Michel Houellebecq is usually a good forecaster of what's going to happen in France. He predicted a terrorist attack the day before it happened IIRC.
    Okay so who will the Muslim French president be?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    edited January 21
    DJ41 said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    French prez elex

    Le Pen is 2nd fave. I’d have her as slight favourite. I reckon by 2026 the French will be thinking, Ah fuck it, give her a go, why not?

    She’s running the Opposition in the French Parliament and doing it with some discipline. I don’t see a strong coherent rival to her

    But of course it is years away….


    2002 - Jean Marie Le Pen - 18%
    2017 - Marine Le Pen - 34%
    2022 - Marine Le Pen - 42%

    2022 definitely felt more significant than her 8% rise would suggest, due to the legislative election breakthrough. They only got 8 seats in 2017 and 89 in 2022.
    The problem with the "president's party" En Marche is what will happen to it when EM isn't the president. It could just disappear in a puff.
    I do enjoy some of the straightforwardness of French politics as detailed on wikipedia.

    The Union of the Right and Centre (French: Union de la droite et du centre; UDC) is a term used in France to designate an electoral alliance between the parties of the right and of the centre.

    None of this 'Party X is called the Liberal Party but is actually a Conservative Party' stuff you see in some places.

    Edit: It's remarkable where the Republican and Socialist candidates finished in the last presidential - under 5 and under 2% respectively.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    DJ41 said:

    Leon said:

    French prez elex

    Le Pen is 2nd fave. I’d have her as slight favourite. I reckon by 2026 the French will be thinking, Ah fuck it, give her a go, why not?

    She’s running the Opposition in the French Parliament and doing it with some discipline. I don’t see a strong coherent rival to her

    But of course it is years away….


    Le Pen wants France to return to being outside the NATO command structure, so if she were to win the presidency tomorrow the "Bad Germany for not sending tanks to fight Russia" brigade would be able to chant about French cowardice, which they would probably enjoy even more. (Add in some lazy Italians or Spaniards and they'd be in seventh heaven.) But as you say, 2027 is a very long time away.
    Yes it’s not worth a bet as it is four years away, and when you think what happened over the LAST four years 😶

    My modest hunch that she’ll win is based on the idea that by then - God willing - the economic crisis will have eased and the war will have ended/stagnated

    That means cultural issues/migration/identity return to the fore. And migration is probably going to worsen, as a problem. That’s her ideal scenario for the win
  • WillGWillG Posts: 976
    DJ41 said:

    Leon said:

    French prez elex

    Le Pen is 2nd fave. I’d have her as slight favourite. I reckon by 2026 the French will be thinking, Ah fuck it, give her a go, why not?

    She’s running the Opposition in the French Parliament and doing it with some discipline. I don’t see a strong coherent rival to her

    But of course it is years away….


    Le Pen wants France to return to being outside the NATO command structure, so if she were to win the presidency tomorrow the "Bad Germany for not sending tanks to fight Russia" brigade would be able to chant about French cowardice, which they would probably enjoy even more. (Add in some lazy Italians or Spaniards and they'd be in seventh heaven.) But as you say, 2027 is a very long time away.
    If France retreated from the fight against Russia they would be cowards. Just like the UK would be if they elected Corbyn and did the same thing.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792

    That’s the Black Sean they actually fear.

    It certainly is.


  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    edited January 21
    WillG said:

    DJ41 said:

    Leon said:

    French prez elex

    Le Pen is 2nd fave. I’d have her as slight favourite. I reckon by 2026 the French will be thinking, Ah fuck it, give her a go, why not?

    She’s running the Opposition in the French Parliament and doing it with some discipline. I don’t see a strong coherent rival to her

    But of course it is years away….


    Le Pen wants France to return to being outside the NATO command structure, so if she were to win the presidency tomorrow the "Bad Germany for not sending tanks to fight Russia" brigade would be able to chant about French cowardice, which they would probably enjoy even more. (Add in some lazy Italians or Spaniards and they'd be in seventh heaven.) But as you say, 2027 is a very long time away.
    If France retreated from the fight against Russia they would be cowards. Just like the UK would be if they elected Corbyn and did the same thing.
    France has already been fairly feeble in its response to the war. Not a major military contributor. And they’ve actually taken fewer Ukrainian refugees (IIRC) than the UK despite being nearer and on the continent etc. Germany has taken 10 times the refugees

    But Macron, fair play to him, is good at looking vigorous and important and talks the talk even if he doesn’t quite walk the walk
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    kle4 said:

    DJ41 said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    French prez elex

    Le Pen is 2nd fave. I’d have her as slight favourite. I reckon by 2026 the French will be thinking, Ah fuck it, give her a go, why not?

    She’s running the Opposition in the French Parliament and doing it with some discipline. I don’t see a strong coherent rival to her

    But of course it is years away….


    2002 - Jean Marie Le Pen - 18%
    2017 - Marine Le Pen - 34%
    2022 - Marine Le Pen - 42%

    2022 definitely felt more significant than her 8% rise would suggest, due to the legislative election breakthrough. They only got 8 seats in 2017 and 89 in 2022.
    The problem with the "president's party" En Marche is what will happen to it when EM isn't the president. It could just disappear in a puff.
    I do enjoy some of the straightforwardness of French politics as detailed on wikipedia.

    The Union of the Right and Centre (French: Union de la droite et du centre; UDC) is a term used in France to designate an electoral alliance between the parties of the right and of the centre.

    None of this 'Party X is called the Liberal Party but is actually a Conservative Party' stuff you see in some places.

    Edit: It's remarkable where the Republican and Socialist candidates finished in the last presidential - under 5 and under 2% respectively.
    I see I am out of date and En Marche have rebranded as Renaissance. They went from EM to REM to RE. The logo for their deputies in the national assembly:

    image
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    Dura_Ace said:

    That’s the Black Sean they actually fear.

    It certainly is.


    It’s supposed to be Swan, but auto corrected to Sean 🙇‍♀️

    It has no problems with dura ace though, no matter how I spell it.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214

    Haydock Park Races

    ❗️ UPDATE

    We are currently fit to race however we will hold a Precautionary Inspection on Saturday 21/01 at 08:00
This discussion has been closed.