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Just 42% of GE2019 CON voters now back Sunak’s party – YouGov – politicalbetting.com
Just 42% of GE2019 CON voters now back Sunak’s party – YouGov – politicalbetting.com
Of all the online posters nowadays one firm that stands out and that is YouGov which is effectively the pollster that invented it. One result is that their polling panel is larger than just about anybody else’s with very good records on what members of the panel said they did at previous general elections.
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5% of 2019 LDs though have switched to Sunak's Tories, so expect Sunak to be doing better ìn the bluewall than the redwall
The second question is what proportion of these DKs intend to vote. It's generally thought (especially by Tories) the lower turnout in 1997 was partly a large number of ex-Conservative voters who simply refused to vote.
Let's not also forget the 10% of Labour DKs - the overall DK figure is 18%.
You still reckon Tories getting 29% of votes and the libdems 12% in the locals, in 103 sleeps time?
He’ll be shagged out before he gets on the pitch.
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/sport/football/arsenal-kiwior-twerk-queen-wag-29006993
If anyone knows where they can be found, then that could be really helpful.
Good question Stodge! I think anything below 50% would compare as very low for less than 24 to an election. The comparison would have to be the stage of the parliament won’t it to account archetypical swing away and swing back.
What about my argument the local voting won’t match Westminster polling and it’s not just 2019 it needs to fit with, but trend or form over the last couple of years too?
Last year Lib Dems got 19% 2019 they got 19% so by what reasoning do they Slump to 12%? And that extra 7 comes expense of Tories in Blue Wall, meaning Tories 25% or lower.
We couldn’t be further apart in figures if we were Donetsk and Arsenal Negotiators
the idea from a senior Tory and former Health minister for GPs being able to charge in order to save this service for the Nation - and who doesn’t want the GP issue sorted somehow - leads the Time’s, alongside the Conservative Minister for women and equality explaining that gender self identification is putting women and girls at risk from sexual predators.
the percentage of 2019 Tories that
have switched to the LDs.
That is GE 2019 Tories ie 43% not the much lower 28% who voted for the Tories in the May 2019 locals the seats for which are the ones up again this May
Javid backs fee to see GP
Charging for GP appointments and A&E visits is “crucial” to the survival of the NHS, Sajid Javid has declared. The former health secretary says that without radical and controversial reform, the principles of the NHS “cannot survive much longer” as patients face lengthening waits for...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sajid-javid-backs-fee-to-see-gp-qjspklvxt
Correct me where wrong, HY has the Tories getting a better share now 29%, the Lib Dems on just 12, on basis he see’s in polls Rishi doing better in Blue Wall than Boris.
That’s truly bonkers innit? 🤷♀️
Why is an important local Tory like HY not doing normal expectation management, instead talking up a better than last time success for Rishi than last year results? 🤷♀️
If any of those 2,985,959 voters no longer identify as Con voter and feeling disgruntled, and up to give a slap like they been doing in historic by elections, there’s so many options for them isn’t there?
https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/music/1724165/Prince-Harry-Elvis-Presley-Graceland
Rishi is lucky they have little further to fall voteshare and seat and council loss wise.
If you are right and Lib Dems slump to just 12% as Rishi defends the Blue Wall near 29% in a mid term locals, I wont eat any hats, but my flabber will be very gasted.
Telegraph leads a big good news splash for British holiday makers, as EU backs down on checking them.
To me it’s obvious why, tourism so important to EU economy’s they don’t want us to go elsewhere.
Tomorrows papers overall not a bad set for the Tories.
Can’t wait to hear about how well the government is doing in hypothetical polls that might come out at an indeterminate period in the future, somewhere in the multiverse.
Last years wacky weather has certainly impacted this years jump season - Stodge likely to back me up on this - as although it looked like wet weather it has been dry down beneath surface and soaked up wet like a sponge, so only recently turning proper soft helping those who prefer that. That’s my excuse anyway.
Brady and Baker likely lose their seats at the next election, Cox an outside bet for Conservative Leader of the Opposition but Steve Barclay is more likely in my view
Better than your Geoffrey Cox bet. You sure you don’t mean Geoffrey from rainbow?
to read, especially after a few 19 crimes interspersed by a nice Greenwich Japanese meal with Asahi + sake bottle.
I’m even being fair to Arsenal’s transfer policy where it deserves it for once
The rest would probably do even worse than Sunak
Geoffrey Cox to me has good Brexit credentials, talks a good game (very high profile barrister), is old and experienced, and would be a 'uniter'. Michael Howard figure.
NHS charges are almost as old as the NHS itself.
I was looking at this today - in the lead up to the May 19 elections the LDs were still polling at only around 9% and the 19% PNS was a surprise on the upside So the potential for LD to exceed their polling levels, and for the Tories to come in below theirs is non negligible.
It was subsequent to the May elections that Brexit was confirmed delayed, the polling went haywire with LD and BXP poll leads, and
the TMay fatal Euro elections followed a few
weeks after.
I've worked up a simplish method for assessing local by-elections basically averaging the NEV/PNS last time (which is variously based on 2019 / 21 or 22 for different elections) with the average swing for those where Lab and Con are defending their position.
The 7 by elections in January so far suggest a national share of LAB 42 CON 21 with one week to go. The December margin was somewhat narrower, but I do expect these to bounce around a bit.
42/21 with almost any LD share would bring heavy Con losses from a poor starting position.
This is why the Tory Party is heading for defeat.
3,564 councillors, control of 93 councils dependant on getting those three million votes - how many of those three million votes disgruntled and don’t show to lose 750 councillors and 30 councils?
That’s how you should be spinning it tonight, not 29% and no worse than before, but 600 losses and 20 lost councils a good night in the current circumstances with unprecedented global factors bashing the country?
I wonder how sticky those shifts are - the Lib Dems having 32% to Labour, while the biggest Con shift is to "don't know" on 23%......which are more likely to return?
I know people enjoy talking about "extinction level event" for the Tories.....but there may be other candidates....
Best health service I ever experienced was in a hospital in Lyon after an accident. Night and day from the UK. But waiting 3 hours for the insurance forms at the end was incredibly frustrating.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
Remember too these are local elections where there will also be some protest vote against unpopular southern LD led councils the LDs won in 2019, even to local Tories
But also it doesn't mean anything.
You're either competent or not.
But a purity test is apparently the vital criteria for many of the rump Tories.
Little surprise they can't find anyone halfway competent. Since Brexit Boy when it was an obscure niche Rishi is now deemed unsound on the topic.
We're having a record historic real terms pay cut.
And every sentence was about Brexit.
Nobody cares any more.
We were told that the Gender Recognition Bill was a trap - deliberately get the UK Government to block it and that will boost the case for independence.
Well today Survation has Independence at Yes 46, No 54.
Now we know the Gender Recognition Bill is unpopular in Scotland - so might it be that Scots are thinking it's actually a good thing being in the UK - as the UK Government is able to block this legislation they don't want.
And, crucially, if they weren't in the UK, what other crazy (and much more serious) things might the Scottish Government do which couldn't then be blocked?
I agree Boris factor could either go wrong, cause of that insensitive partying, but based on how clear he is in his upbeat messaging, great campaigner and much loved still in marginal constituencies, he could get better result than Penny. It matters where the votes are, not necessary how many, and that’s the appeal of Boris and why Starmer and Labour were glad to see him out, and Tories should have been in two minds to see him out. Mid terms do throw up bad polling stats regardless how GE will go, was Lady Thatcher any more popular than Boris mid term ahead of her 1983 landslide triumph.
As soon as it looks like Boris will lead Tories into the next election it is the Labour supporters on PB and everywhere getting upset and angry about it - and that’s so telling isn’t it? That’s the Black Sean they actually fear.
EU ultra-ism probably cost the LDs votes last election. Their policy of unilateral re-entry was bonkers.
Keir looks like he will give the LDs plenty of space to look more EU-philic.
If the SNP command 50% of Scottish votes then great, give them 50% of seats. Not almost all, with weird tactical voting in the remainder.
The same is true of the economy (peoples' number 1 concern), and immigration (also fairly high on the list).
People with full time jobs are talking about when they put the heating on.
Berlin is consciously and deliberately stalling on sending Kyiv battle tanks.
https://www.newstatesman.com/quickfire/2023/01/germany-ukraine-tanks-roadblock-europe
https://twitter.com/bueti/status/1616429844891598849
What the @Bundeskanzler people want everybody to think:
"Here’s a world leader being sovereign enough to not be driven, pushed or rushed into acting by others, as reasonable as their reckoning might be."
What most observers see:
"A man who only acts when there is no other way. That comes at a cost: of alienating friends and allies internationally, irritating his own coalition, and being forever late."
I'd add: Scholz promises "Keine Alleingänge!" But his style of communication says the opposite.
Nailed on two term Labour government.
The upset and angry elsewhere will be elsewhere.
It will be Rishi v Keir.
As per my post earlier today I expect LAB to get 325 to 340.
Then let's see what happens after that.
They are a long way from feral now, they are genetically changed to be domesticated. Maybe if they were feral and had horns they were to be more street wise and less afraid? I think feral sheep are more sterile so maybe we changed them genetically through breeding for breeding and this makes them more vulnerable to death because we are greedy for more sheep? I don’t know, I’m not Charles Darwin.
I know it’s political joke being savaged by a dead sheep - but this week I was bit by a dead one and it’s a nuisance as still hurting.
With incumbents attacking opponents you always get someone going 'The reason X attack Y is because they fear Y'.
On rare occasions that might be true, obviously the incumbent will need to attach their opponents regadless. But it seems much more likely to me that when someone says they dislike Boris, or Starmer, or Corbyn, or whoever, it's because they mean what they say. Especially when they have policy or other reasons, such as suitability, for their position. Remember the brief flurry of people trying to say the reason people attacked Corbyn all the time was they thought he would win, rather than his inherent qualities?
On this occasion its even stupider than usual, because it presumes no other reason people might dislike the idea of Boris coming back, and instead places anyone raising that point as both a Labour supporter and one fearing his return.
He’s also a lame duck in term 2 and his greatest fear is being replaced by the determined Ms Le Pen
Which is really quite likely
Looks like the German equivalent of the Yes Prime Minister checklist
1) Nothing is going to happen
2) Something may be about to happen but we should do nothing about it
3) Maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we can do
4) Maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now
"Two drug companies are seeking approval from the Food and Drug Administration that may provide what amounts to a cure." (For sickle cell disease)
source$: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/17/health/sickle-cell-cure-brings-mix-of-anxiety-and-hope.html
For some reason, Gina Kolata, who is usually a pretty good reporter, focused, not on these potential cures, but on sufferers who weren’t sure they would take the cures, since the disease is so much a part of their identities.
But the potential good news is stll there — and there have been some experimental cures, already. (I asume these potential cures, if they work, would make a big difference in West Africa.)
( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sickle_cell_disease )
Why are the police even involved at all? Let alone 200 of them.
Her partner Mark Gordon is referred to as a rapist or in bureaucratic w*nker talk a "convicted sex offender", which he is, but that was 33 years ago when he was a TEENAGER and he served his 20 year sentence. He came out of prison in the USA in 2010.
Surely the man can now marry, father children with, or elope with who he likes.
The media are totally whooping it up about two people daring to be "off the grid", presumably not using known smartphones, paying for stuff in cash, and trying not to be caught identifiably on surveillance camera.
Are any of those actions unlawful? No, they are not.
That is all lawful activity.
That point is of course viewed as wimpy woky lefty.
Just go "whoop" when the police "hunt" someone, or you're a terrorist.
Ms Marten's dad sounds like a right tosser: "Darling Constance even though we remain estranged at the moment, I stand by, as I have always done and as the family has always done, to do whatever is necessary for your safe return to us. I beseech you to find a way to turn yourself and your wee one in to the police as soon as possible, so you and he or she can be protected. Only then can a process of healing and recovery begin, however long it may take, however difficult it may be."
"Yourself and your wee one". Get it? The posh family doesn't accept that Constance's husband and the father of her baby is worthy of recognition in either of those roles...and oh look, he's black.
This is all like shark chum for the readership of the gutter press - complete with a photo of a black man with words printed near it such as "rapist" etc.
It's like we're back in the Jim Crow southern states of the USA in the 1950s.
Just leave these two people alone.
Why is public money being spent on hunting them?
Can't the police concentrate on catching actual criminals?
I suppose the turret throwing Olympics of last winter has put paid to that wet dream forever.
Le Pen is 2nd fave. I’d have her as slight favourite. I reckon by 2026 the French will be thinking, Ah fuck it, give her a go, why not?
She’s running the Opposition in the French Parliament and doing it with some discipline. I don’t see a strong coherent rival to her
But of course it is years away….
Where HY is mistaken is turning a fact “Sunak doing better in Blue Wall than Boris” into a don’t know he can be sure of of actual out house down polling station actual Tory vote. It’s not vote switching that leads to mid term beat ups but stay always.
Same with westminster by elections Labour won last year. As Labour PB were chairing each other around the virtual room I explained it’s not based on big switch of voters, but stay at home Tory’s and it made them angry. But I was actually right. In last years locals and westminster by elections in midlands and north east, there was patchy vote switching to Labour, but a lot of Tory no shows that drove the changes, and it will likely have much of that this year too in Red Wall.
In Blue Wall, a lot of it is former Tory Remania - so HY is right they associate Sunak less with Brexit they hate than they associate Boris, but by staying home and switching to other options they will still give Sunak a proper kicking in 102 days time.
Lib Dems got 19% both in 2019 and last year and ain’t dropping to 12 this time. And if it is around 19% this time that is expense of Tories in blue wall, ain’t it?
2017 - Marine Le Pen - 34%
2022 - Marine Le Pen - 42%
2022 definitely felt more significant than her 8% rise would suggest, due to the legislative election breakthrough. They only got 8 seats in 2017 and 89 in 2022.
But at the end of the day it's very hard to get worked up about. If someone tried a 'think's he's above the law' gambit it just wouldn't stack for me, I'd think it more he was a clueless twonk for that moment. And that's a different level of critique.
The Union of the Right and Centre (French: Union de la droite et du centre; UDC) is a term used in France to designate an electoral alliance between the parties of the right and of the centre.
None of this 'Party X is called the Liberal Party but is actually a Conservative Party' stuff you see in some places.
Edit: It's remarkable where the Republican and Socialist candidates finished in the last presidential - under 5 and under 2% respectively.
My modest hunch that she’ll win is based on the idea that by then - God willing - the economic crisis will have eased and the war will have ended/stagnated
That means cultural issues/migration/identity return to the fore. And migration is probably going to worsen, as a problem. That’s her ideal scenario for the win
But Macron, fair play to him, is good at looking vigorous and important and talks the talk even if he doesn’t quite walk the walk
It has no problems with dura ace though, no matter how I spell it.
Haydock Park Races
❗️ UPDATE
We are currently fit to race however we will hold a Precautionary Inspection on Saturday 21/01 at 08:00