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Trump looks a good bet for the WH2024 nomination – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 22 in General
imageTrump looks a good bet for the WH2024 nomination – politicalbetting.com

In less than a year we should see the first Primary in the 2024 White House Race. There is a lot of debate going on within the Democratic party about which state should be first with efforts being made to dislodge Iowa and New Hampshire from their normal first slots.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • The interplay between the two contests could be interesting.

    If Trump does well in the early stages I reckon that could boost Biden (a) because age becomes less of an issue and (b) because he's beaten him once already.

    Not sure how that affects the betting in either nomination market though!
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,334
    I dont get the impression that Biden has the appetite, admittedly sitting 000s of miles away I just dont sense he is a man with a mission or desire for another term..... therefore I think who comes fwd for the Dems (if that happens) will have a major impact on the Republican race....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,682
    Third like Trump, if he stands. Surely the Reps can’t credibly put him up again?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    The nomination process for both parties is going to be fascinating, and as @FrequentLurker suggests, there could be an amount of interplay between them.

    I think Trump is going to be a lay, with many in the party hierarchy feeling that he failed to make the expected gains from his mid-term candidates. He still has a lot of very vocal supporters though.

    DeSantis is I think hoping to avoid running this time, especially against Trump, wanting to keep his slate clean for 2028. The question is, can he be cajoled into running by those opposed to Trump, even though the two of them fish in similar waters?

    It’s also worth mentioning that DeS can’t be Trump’s running mate, as they’re both from the same state.

    Perhaps the value is in laying the pair of them at this stage?

    I think that, if the Republicans don’t choose Trump, the Dems don’t choose Biden again. The big question for the Dems, is how can they sideline the incumbent without making VP Harris the presumptive nominee? She might check all of their diversity boxes, but has been a terrible VP and would be a terrible candidate.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073
    Shouldn't that be "Uge name recognition"?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,949
    Here’s why ‘Trussonomics’ could soon be back on the agenda
    Latest figures suggest Government finances have more leeway than first thought, and the upcoming Budget might just hold a few surprises

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/01/17/why-trussonomics-could-soon-back-agenda/ (£££)

    Tory MPs are pressing for tax cuts, as did Boris last week. Could these be related?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,880
    I think that Trump's bubble has burst and he is now seen as a loser by the majority of Republicans. The wheels of justice barely seem to move at all as far as he is concerned but surely he is going to be prosecuted for the possession of State secrets at the very least. That is an absolutely slam dunk offence and the only mystery is that it has not happened already. Biden's recent stupidity is not equivalent because he is the sitting President and has the right to those documents to work on, even if he clearly should be more careful that they are secure.

    The gerontocracy of the United States has got totally out of hand. It is long past time we moved on to a new generation, indeed 2 new generations with much younger candidates for both parties.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298

    Here’s why ‘Trussonomics’ could soon be back on the agenda
    Latest figures suggest Government finances have more leeway than first thought, and the upcoming Budget might just hold a few surprises

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/01/17/why-trussonomics-could-soon-back-agenda/ (£££)

    Tory MPs are pressing for tax cuts, as did Boris last week. Could these be related?

    On the other hand there's this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/18/jeremy-hunt-slimmed-down-spring-budget-no-tax-cuts
  • My advice to Ron DeSantis.

    Chlamydia can be cured but there's no medicine for regret.

    This isn't my book talking.

    I don't want it to be DeSantis, I don't think I could cope with a POTUS younger than me.
  • DavidL said:

    Here’s why ‘Trussonomics’ could soon be back on the agenda
    Latest figures suggest Government finances have more leeway than first thought, and the upcoming Budget might just hold a few surprises

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/01/17/why-trussonomics-could-soon-back-agenda/ (£££)

    Tory MPs are pressing for tax cuts, as did Boris last week. Could these be related?

    Fantasy. There are significant wage bills to be found for almost all the public sector where wage growth is currently just over 3% when inflation is at 10%. Any additional money (and the cost of subsidising gas has been less than expected) must be used for that.
    Yup. The only justification for the public sector squeeze is that the state simply can't afford any more. Coupling that with noisy tax cuts is asking for trouble.

    Having said that, a cut in the basic rate to accompany the pre-announced stealth increases is an obvious bit of Thatcher-by-numbers.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825

    My advice to Ron DeSantis.

    Chlamydia can be cured but there's no medicine for regret.

    This isn't my book talking.

    I don't want it to be DeSantis, I don't think I could cope with a POTUS younger than me.

    Sooner or later there will be a POTUS that is younger than you.

    I think there have now been 3 PM's that have been younger than me: Cameron, Truss and Sunak.
    DavidL said:

    Here’s why ‘Trussonomics’ could soon be back on the agenda
    Latest figures suggest Government finances have more leeway than first thought, and the upcoming Budget might just hold a few surprises

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/01/17/why-trussonomics-could-soon-back-agenda/ (£££)

    Tory MPs are pressing for tax cuts, as did Boris last week. Could these be related?

    Fantasy. There are significant wage bills to be found for almost all the public sector where wage growth is currently just over 3% when inflation is at 10%. Any additional money (and the cost of subsidising gas has been less than expected) must be used for that.
    With public services strike ridden and rapidly deteriorating, tax cuts would make that 20% Labour lead a reality. It would be electoral oblivion for the Tories.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    edited January 18
    Another day, another Met Police sex offender - an Inspector this time!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11646491/Met-Police-inspector-facing-raft-child-porn-charges-dead.html

    This one won’t be needing prison.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    UK CPI down to 10.5% in December, from 10.7% in November. Right direction at least.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825
    Interesting piece in The Guardian on Social Care. Despite the difficulties of the sector it seems great profits can still be made:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/jan/17/owner-of-uk-care-home-group-paid-himself-21m-despite-safety-concerns

    Privatisation isn't an instant solution to quality nor consumer responsiveness it seems, yet those siren voices of the lobbyists always see it as an essential "Reform".
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825
    Sandpit said:

    UK CPI down to 10.5% in December, from 10.7% in November. Right direction at least.

    A lot more than wage increase yesterday, particularly the paltry public sector one.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,880
    Sandpit said:

    UK CPI down to 10.5% in December, from 10.7% in November. Right direction at least.

    Disappointing. Thought it would fall more.
  • Hmmm

    Government work to protect the UK’s national security is being undermined by delays and failures in vetting civil servants, a report reveals today.

    Officials needing access to sensitive and secret documents are required to undergo extensive background checks in a process known as developed vetting. However, the report by the National Audit Office (NAO) has found that “unacceptable delays” are hampering the appointment process.

    The NAO found that the government’s vetting service, which is run by the Cabinet Office, is processing just 7 per cent of applicants before the three-month deadline. Even lower- level security clearances are suffering delays, with only 15 per cent of basic anti-terrorism checks taking place within the target of 25 days.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-national-security-risk-government-whitehall-vetting-2023-vlbh09dxj
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,052
    Sandpit said:

    The nomination process for both parties is going to be fascinating, and as @FrequentLurker suggests, there could be an amount of interplay between them.

    I think Trump is going to be a lay, with many in the party hierarchy feeling that he failed to make the expected gains from his mid-term candidates. He still has a lot of very vocal supporters though.

    DeSantis is I think hoping to avoid running this time, especially against Trump, wanting to keep his slate clean for 2028. The question is, can he be cajoled into running by those opposed to Trump, even though the two of them fish in similar waters?

    It’s also worth mentioning that DeS can’t be Trump’s running mate, as they’re both from the same state.

    Perhaps the value is in laying the pair of them at this stage?

    I think that, if the Republicans don’t choose Trump, the Dems don’t choose Biden again. The big question for the Dems, is how can they sideline the incumbent without making VP Harris the presumptive nominee? She might check all of their diversity boxes, but has been a terrible VP and would be a terrible candidate.

    My perception, from a long way off, is that she's been an invisible VP rfather than a terrible one. What awful blunders has she committed? Her poll rating is -15, which isn't good but not massively worse than the others.

    Soeaking of which, Biden's ratings have improved since I last looked - up to single negative figures and the odd positive one:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,268

    The interplay between the two contests could be interesting.

    If Trump does well in the early stages I reckon that could boost Biden (a) because age becomes less of an issue and (b) because he's beaten him once already.

    Not sure how that affects the betting in either nomination market though!

    I doubt there is much buyer's remorse for those who went for Biden, not enough for them to go Trump in a rematch. The storming of Congress by Trumpistas was after they had all voted. It may well have scared off a slice of Trump's vote, especially amongst independents.

    It's not as if Trump has spent the past year looking like some great sage who America was stupid to reject.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    On topic, and in the context of the upcoming Republican debt ceiling blackmail attempt.

    For context, roughly 25% of our total national debt incurred over the last 230 years actually occurred during the 4 years of the Trump administration. That's right. 25% of our entire national debt, all during the Trump years.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidJollyFL/status/1615549724865568769
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,949
    edited January 18

    Here’s why ‘Trussonomics’ could soon be back on the agenda
    Latest figures suggest Government finances have more leeway than first thought, and the upcoming Budget might just hold a few surprises

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/01/17/why-trussonomics-could-soon-back-agenda/ (£££)

    Tory MPs are pressing for tax cuts, as did Boris last week. Could these be related?

    Point of order, that's not Trussonomics, which is cutting taxes without having the leeway in the budget to be able to afford them.

    Cutting taxes when there is more money in the budget than expected is pretty standard conservative economics. It was the entirely unfunded nature of Truss' tax cuts that was their defining feature.
    Last week, Boris called for tax cuts, and this week, Boris-supporting MPs are calling for tax cuts. I'm not sure economics has much to do with it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,268
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    UK CPI down to 10.5% in December, from 10.7% in November. Right direction at least.

    Disappointing. Thought it would fall more.
    Needs those steep fuel price increases of Feb-March last year to drop out. If the Government can keep the various pay disputes unsettled until then, the union's pay claims are going to look that much more greedy.

    The unions would be wise to bear that in mind and reach a settlement before that happens.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    Some polling on tax cuts vs public sector pay awards vs debt repayment might be interesting, if as looks likely the Chancellor has some leeway in the Budget.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298

    Here’s why ‘Trussonomics’ could soon be back on the agenda
    Latest figures suggest Government finances have more leeway than first thought, and the upcoming Budget might just hold a few surprises

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/01/17/why-trussonomics-could-soon-back-agenda/ (£££)

    Tory MPs are pressing for tax cuts, as did Boris last week. Could these be related?

    Point of order, that's not Trussonomics, which is cutting taxes without having the leeway in the budget to be able to afford them.

    Cutting taxes when there is more money in the budget than expected is pretty standard conservative economics. It was the entirely unfunded nature of Truss' tax cuts that was their defining feature.
    Last week, Boris called for tax cuts, and this week, Boris-supporting MPs are calling for tax cuts. I'm not sure economics has much to do with it.
    But that's Pavlovian. It's not as if there was much tax cutting when he was PM.
    And he always is eager to spend.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,682

    Here’s why ‘Trussonomics’ could soon be back on the agenda
    Latest figures suggest Government finances have more leeway than first thought, and the upcoming Budget might just hold a few surprises

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/01/17/why-trussonomics-could-soon-back-agenda/ (£££)

    Tory MPs are pressing for tax cuts, as did Boris last week. Could these be related?

    Basic strategy says that, even if true, you save this for early 2024
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    UK CPI down to 10.5% in December, from 10.7% in November. Right direction at least.

    Disappointing. Thought it would fall more.
    Needs those steep fuel price increases of Feb-March last year to drop out. If the Government can keep the various pay disputes unsettled until then, the union's pay claims are going to look that much more greedy.

    The unions would be wise to bear that in mind and reach a settlement before that happens.
    Not really, unless we get actual and sustained deflation which doesn't seem likely.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    UK CPI down to 10.5% in December, from 10.7% in November. Right direction at least.

    Disappointing. Thought it would fall more.
    Needs those steep fuel price increases of Feb-March last year to drop out. If the Government can keep the various pay disputes unsettled until then, the union's pay claims are going to look that much more greedy.

    The unions would be wise to bear that in mind and reach a settlement before that happens.
    The inflation numbers have been all over the place since the pandemic started. It would be an interesting exercise to look at how far actual prices have moved, say over four years from mid-2019 to mid-2023. My suspicion is that it’s lower than might be expected, perhaps around 3% per year.

    July 2019 was 2.0% https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/july2019
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Jeremy Hunt ‘planning a slimmed-down spring budget with no tax cuts’
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/18/jeremy-hunt-slimmed-down-spring-budget-no-tax-cuts
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825
    edited January 18

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    UK CPI down to 10.5% in December, from 10.7% in November. Right direction at least.

    Disappointing. Thought it would fall more.
    Needs those steep fuel price increases of Feb-March last year to drop out. If the Government can keep the various pay disputes unsettled until then, the union's pay claims are going to look that much more greedy.

    The unions would be wise to bear that in mind and reach a settlement before that happens.
    Well if this years 7.2% real terms pay cut is because the inflation figures were taken at the beginning of the year, why shouldn't a higher figure be used for this year on the same basis, giving a real terms pay increase?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    UK CPI down to 10.5% in December, from 10.7% in November. Right direction at least.

    Disappointing. Thought it would fall more.
    Needs those steep fuel price increases of Feb-March last year to drop out. If the Government can keep the various pay disputes unsettled until then, the union's pay claims are going to look that much more greedy.

    The unions would be wise to bear that in mind and reach a settlement before that happens.
    Look to whom ?
    Is the electorate really so stupid not to understand that if inflation has already cut your real pay, a drop in inflation doesn't make you better off ?

    Otherwise why would the Tory client vote be so attached to the triple lock ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    UK CPI down to 10.5% in December, from 10.7% in November. Right direction at least.

    Disappointing. Thought it would fall more.
    Needs those steep fuel price increases of Feb-March last year to drop out. If the Government can keep the various pay disputes unsettled until then, the union's pay claims are going to look that much more greedy.

    The unions would be wise to bear that in mind and reach a settlement before that happens.
    The inflation numbers have been all over the place since the pandemic started. It would be an interesting exercise to look at how far actual prices have moved, say over four years from mid-2019 to mid-2023. My suspicion is that it’s lower than might be expected, perhaps around 3% per year.

    July 2019 was 2.0% https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/july2019
    Your suspicion would be wrong. Food prices have actually skyrocketed in that period, as has fuel. Luxury goods, which were used by Brown to justify his false accounting say inflation remained low have also gone up sharply, driven by chip shortages that didn't have much to do to the pandemic.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,477
    Looks like we're going to get all the juicy details of the the Qatar corruption scandal (or, at least, this particular Qatar corruption scandal):

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64306691

    "Italian Pier Antonio Panzeri held in EU-Qatargate bribery probe agrees to tell all"
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,477
    For those who think our 14 drinks a week guidance is prissy:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64311705

    "If you must drink at all, two drinks maximum each week is deemed low-risk by the government-backed guidance."
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,240

    Here’s why ‘Trussonomics’ could soon be back on the agenda
    Latest figures suggest Government finances have more leeway than first thought, and the upcoming Budget might just hold a few surprises

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/01/17/why-trussonomics-could-soon-back-agenda/ (£££)

    Tory MPs are pressing for tax cuts, as did Boris last week. Could these be related?

    Point of order, that's not Trussonomics, which is cutting taxes without having the leeway in the budget to be able to afford them.

    Cutting taxes when there is more money in the budget than expected is pretty standard conservative economics. It was the entirely unfunded nature of Truss' tax cuts that was their defining feature.
    Last week, Boris called for tax cuts, and this week, Boris-supporting MPs are calling for tax cuts. I'm not sure economics has much to do with it.
    That's as may be, but my criticism was more for the Telegraph. I don't want Truss to come to be seen as the patron saint of all tax cuts, as though she was the only person to ever have proposed cutting taxes, and was cruelly martyred by an establishment fixated on ever-increasing taxation.

    She became our shortest-serving Prime Minister because she proposed to cut taxes with not even a hint of a plan of how they were to be paid for.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    carnforth said:

    For those who think our 14 drinks a week guidance is prissy:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64311705

    "If you must drink at all, two drinks maximum each week is deemed low-risk by the government-backed guidance."

    So all civil servants are at high risk after lunchtime on Monday?
  • carnforth said:

    For those who think our 14 drinks a week guidance is prissy:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64311705

    "If you must drink at all, two drinks maximum each week is deemed low-risk by the government-backed guidance."

    I drink over 100 units a week, have done for decades.

    Recent liver function tests all came back totally clear, speaking to two GPs and a nurse, every one of them said have at least two consecutive days dry (which I do) and don't worry about how much you drink on the other days.

    My vast levels of walking and drinking of water when not drinking alcohol were also seen as positive contributors to not getting unwell as a result of the excess alcohol.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,594
    edited January 18
    carnforth said:

    For those who think our 14 drinks a week guidance is prissy:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64311705

    "If you must drink at all, two drinks maximum each week is deemed low-risk by the government-backed guidance."

    Thank God for the Nanny state.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    Taz said:

    carnforth said:

    For those who think our 14 drinks a week guidance is prissy:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64311705

    "If you must drink at all, two drinks maximum each week is deemed low-risk by the government-backed guidance."

    Thanks God for the Nanny state
    It gets your goat?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    edited January 18
    carnforth said:

    For those who think our 14 drinks a week guidance is prissy:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64311705

    "If you must drink at all, two drinks maximum each week is deemed low-risk by the government-backed guidance."

    It just reflects reality.
    Sadly, alcohol just isn't very good for you in any significant quantity.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    edited January 18
    In other, shock news, Bishops are expected to veto same sex marriage in the Church of England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64313367

    Not sure if @HYUFD agreed to my wager that it wouldn't be happening over the next two years.

    Why anyone would want to be a member of a club that wouldn't have them as a member, however, remains a mystery.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825
    Nigelb said:

    carnforth said:

    For those who think our 14 drinks a week guidance is prissy:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64311705

    "If you must drink at all, two drinks maximum each week is deemed low-risk by the government-backed guidance."

    It just reflects reality.
    Sadly, alcohol just isn't very good for you in any significant quantity.
    True, but this country is tough enough to live in while merry, facing it sober is too much.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    TOPPING said:

    In other, shock news, Bishops are expected to veto same sex marriage in the Church of England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64313367

    Not sure if @HYUFD agreed to my wager that it wouldn't be happening over the next two years.

    Why anyone would want to be a member of a club that wouldn't have them as a member, however, remains a mystery.

    "I don't want to belong to any club that would accept me as one of its members."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    UK CPI down to 10.5% in December, from 10.7% in November. Right direction at least.

    Disappointing. Thought it would fall more.
    Needs those steep fuel price increases of Feb-March last year to drop out. If the Government can keep the various pay disputes unsettled until then, the union's pay claims are going to look that much more greedy.

    The unions would be wise to bear that in mind and reach a settlement before that happens.
    The inflation numbers have been all over the place since the pandemic started. It would be an interesting exercise to look at how far actual prices have moved, say over four years from mid-2019 to mid-2023. My suspicion is that it’s lower than might be expected, perhaps around 3% per year.

    July 2019 was 2.0% https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/july2019
    Your suspicion would be wrong. Food prices have actually skyrocketed in that period, as has fuel. Luxury goods, which were used by Brown to justify his false accounting say inflation remained low have also gone up sharply, driven by chip shortages that didn't have much to do to the pandemic.
    Which is why I said it would be interesting to look at the actual numbers in the middle of this year, once the spikes in especially fuel have worked their way out of of the inflation numbers.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 11,036
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    UK CPI down to 10.5% in December, from 10.7% in November. Right direction at least.

    Disappointing. Thought it would fall more.
    Needs those steep fuel price increases of Feb-March last year to drop out. If the Government can keep the various pay disputes unsettled until then, the union's pay claims are going to look that much more greedy.

    The unions would be wise to bear that in mind and reach a settlement before that happens.
    The inflation numbers have been all over the place since the pandemic started. It would be an interesting exercise to look at how far actual prices have moved, say over four years from mid-2019 to mid-2023. My suspicion is that it’s lower than might be expected, perhaps around 3% per year.

    July 2019 was 2.0% https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/july2019
    Hard to calculate inflation to mid 2023 as we only have data to Dec-22. Over the three year period since Dec-19 prices have gone up by 5.4% per year.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    In other, shock news, Bishops are expected to veto same sex marriage in the Church of England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64313367

    Not sure if @HYUFD agreed to my wager that it wouldn't be happening over the next two years.

    Why anyone would want to be a member of a club that wouldn't have them as a member, however, remains a mystery.

    "I don't want to belong to any club that would accept me as one of its members."
    That was reportedly Groucho Marx, in his letter of resignation from the Friars Club in New York.

    Of course, ‘activist’ groups love the idea of inserting themselves into places where they’ve not traditionally been accepted, not because they want to be members, but because they think that the place should change to accommodate them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    UK CPI down to 10.5% in December, from 10.7% in November. Right direction at least.

    Disappointing. Thought it would fall more.
    Needs those steep fuel price increases of Feb-March last year to drop out. If the Government can keep the various pay disputes unsettled until then, the union's pay claims are going to look that much more greedy.

    The unions would be wise to bear that in mind and reach a settlement before that happens.
    The inflation numbers have been all over the place since the pandemic started. It would be an interesting exercise to look at how far actual prices have moved, say over four years from mid-2019 to mid-2023. My suspicion is that it’s lower than might be expected, perhaps around 3% per year.

    July 2019 was 2.0% https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/july2019
    Your suspicion would be wrong. Food prices have actually skyrocketed in that period, as has fuel. Luxury goods, which were used by Brown to justify his false accounting say inflation remained low have also gone up sharply, driven by chip shortages that didn't have much to do to the pandemic.
    Which is why I said it would be interesting to look at the actual numbers in the middle of this year, once the spikes in especially fuel have worked their way out of of the inflation numbers.
    But - forgive me - it's not about the spikes 'working their way out.' Unless prices actually fall markedly (and so far there isn't much sign of that outside gas prices, which are only one component of the current crisis albeit the most important one) then prices will still be much higher than four years ago.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Bulgaria to the rescue: How the EU’s poorest country secretly (helped) saved Ukraine
    https://www.politico.eu/article/bulgaria-volodymyr-zelenskyy-kiril-petkov-poorest-country-eu-ukraine/
    While Petkov, who was Bulgarian prime minister at the outbreak of the war, was attempting to pull the country in a more westward, pro-NATO trajectory, he had to grapple with intense blowback from pro-Kremlin politicians, including among his coalition partners, the Socialists, who are the successors to the old Communist Party. He even had to fire his own defense minister for parroting Russia’s spin on the war. In public, at least, Petkov sought to play down any idea that Bulgaria — despite considerable stocks of Soviet-era weaponry — would step up and arm Ukraine.

    Given these sensitivities, Bulgaria’s official stance toward the war has seen it lumped in the same basket as Viktor Orbán’s Hungary — too politically in hock to Moscow to pull its weight.

    But Petkov and Vassilev, now opposition politicians seeking a path back to power in expected upcoming elections, have broken their silence on the true scale of Bulgaria’s role last spring...

    ...“We estimate that about a third of the ammunition needed by the Ukrainian army in the early phase of the war came from Bulgaria,” Petkov told WELT.


    Recent analyses suggest that it was actually Ukrainian artillery rather than western anti tank weapons which was the more significant factor in halting the initial assault on Kyiv.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 485
    edited January 18
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    UK CPI down to 10.5% in December, from 10.7% in November. Right direction at least.

    Disappointing. Thought it would fall more.
    Needs those steep fuel price increases of Feb-March last year to drop out. If the Government can keep the various pay disputes unsettled until then, the union's pay claims are going to look that much more greedy.

    The unions would be wise to bear that in mind and reach a settlement before that happens.
    The inflation numbers have been all over the place since the pandemic started. It would be an interesting exercise to look at how far actual prices have moved, say over four years from mid-2019 to mid-2023. My suspicion is that it’s lower than might be expected, perhaps around 3% per year.

    July 2019 was 2.0% https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/july2019
    The average annualised CPI inflation rate since July 2019 is 4.9%.

    Coincidentally, December 2022 month-on-month inflation was 0.4%, which equates to 4.9% annually.

    We've definitely had a period of very high inflation, even allowing for the COVID period where it was very low.

    Data all here to calculate: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7bt/mm23
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    UK CPI down to 10.5% in December, from 10.7% in November. Right direction at least.

    Disappointing. Thought it would fall more.
    Needs those steep fuel price increases of Feb-March last year to drop out. If the Government can keep the various pay disputes unsettled until then, the union's pay claims are going to look that much more greedy.

    The unions would be wise to bear that in mind and reach a settlement before that happens.
    The inflation numbers have been all over the place since the pandemic started. It would be an interesting exercise to look at how far actual prices have moved, say over four years from mid-2019 to mid-2023. My suspicion is that it’s lower than might be expected, perhaps around 3% per year.

    July 2019 was 2.0% https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/july2019
    Your suspicion would be wrong. Food prices have actually skyrocketed in that period, as has fuel. Luxury goods, which were used by Brown to justify his false accounting say inflation remained low have also gone up sharply, driven by chip shortages that didn't have much to do to the pandemic.
    Which is why I said it would be interesting to look at the actual numbers in the middle of this year, once the spikes in especially fuel have worked their way out of of the inflation numbers.
    But - forgive me - it's not about the spikes 'working their way out.' Unless prices actually fall markedly (and so far there isn't much sign of that outside gas prices, which are only one component of the current crisis albeit the most important one) then prices will still be much higher than four years ago.
    No one has yet worked out what the net effect of the drop in gas prices together with the removal of most of government price support is going to be in the spring.
    It's going to need a very big drop to give a net overall reduction in price.
  • carnforth said:

    For those who think our 14 drinks a week guidance is prissy:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64311705

    "If you must drink at all, two drinks maximum each week is deemed low-risk by the government-backed guidance."

    I’ll have a yard of gin and tonic, and a yard of red wine please
  • RattersRatters Posts: 485
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    UK CPI down to 10.5% in December, from 10.7% in November. Right direction at least.

    Disappointing. Thought it would fall more.
    Needs those steep fuel price increases of Feb-March last year to drop out. If the Government can keep the various pay disputes unsettled until then, the union's pay claims are going to look that much more greedy.

    The unions would be wise to bear that in mind and reach a settlement before that happens.
    The inflation numbers have been all over the place since the pandemic started. It would be an interesting exercise to look at how far actual prices have moved, say over four years from mid-2019 to mid-2023. My suspicion is that it’s lower than might be expected, perhaps around 3% per year.

    July 2019 was 2.0% https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/july2019
    Your suspicion would be wrong. Food prices have actually skyrocketed in that period, as has fuel. Luxury goods, which were used by Brown to justify his false accounting say inflation remained low have also gone up sharply, driven by chip shortages that didn't have much to do to the pandemic.
    Which is why I said it would be interesting to look at the actual numbers in the middle of this year, once the spikes in especially fuel have worked their way out of of the inflation numbers.
    We would need deflation of 4.5% between now and July in order to hit your 3% annualised over the four years from July 2019, so I think safe to say that won't happen.

    Even with zero inflation between now and then we'd end up at 4.2% annually.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,052

    carnforth said:

    For those who think our 14 drinks a week guidance is prissy:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64311705

    "If you must drink at all, two drinks maximum each week is deemed low-risk by the government-backed guidance."

    I drink over 100 units a week, have done for decades.

    Recent liver function tests all came back totally clear, speaking to two GPs and a nurse, every one of them said have at least two consecutive days dry (which I do) and don't worry about how much you drink on the other days.

    My vast levels of walking and drinking of water when not drinking alcohol were also seen as positive contributors to not getting unwell as a result of the excess alcohol.
    Informed, professional individual advice is usually better than a general rule. In the same way, I've drunk two cans of full-fat Coke pretty much every day for 50 years, accepting damage to teeth and monitoring sugar levels (I don't have treats/snacks etc.) - all seems fine. But the general rules are important as most people don't have either the detailed knowledge/advice to work out what exactly works for them or the self-discipline to stick to it. E.g. what hpapens if the mitigating factors change? If you were no longer able to walk much, would you feel able to cut back on the alcohol?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    edited January 18
    Ratters said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    UK CPI down to 10.5% in December, from 10.7% in November. Right direction at least.

    Disappointing. Thought it would fall more.
    Needs those steep fuel price increases of Feb-March last year to drop out. If the Government can keep the various pay disputes unsettled until then, the union's pay claims are going to look that much more greedy.

    The unions would be wise to bear that in mind and reach a settlement before that happens.
    The inflation numbers have been all over the place since the pandemic started. It would be an interesting exercise to look at how far actual prices have moved, say over four years from mid-2019 to mid-2023. My suspicion is that it’s lower than might be expected, perhaps around 3% per year.

    July 2019 was 2.0% https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/july2019
    Your suspicion would be wrong. Food prices have actually skyrocketed in that period, as has fuel. Luxury goods, which were used by Brown to justify his false accounting say inflation remained low have also gone up sharply, driven by chip shortages that didn't have much to do to the pandemic.
    Which is why I said it would be interesting to look at the actual numbers in the middle of this year, once the spikes in especially fuel have worked their way out of of the inflation numbers.
    We would need deflation of 4.5% between now and July in order to hit your 3% annualised over the four years from July 2019, so I think safe to say that won't happen.

    Even with zero inflation between now and then we'd end up at 4.2% annually.
    Indeed. I’m half expecting to see negative inflation by the summer, as the price spikes of this time last year drop out. The oil price is down more than 30% from the June high, as an example.

    It might well be 4% rather than 3%, but the perception is of there having being a couple of years of 10% inflation.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    Reports coming in of a Ukranian civilian helicopter crash in Kiev.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 584
    Nigelb said:

    carnforth said:

    For those who think our 14 drinks a week guidance is prissy:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64311705

    "If you must drink at all, two drinks maximum each week is deemed low-risk by the government-backed guidance."

    It just reflects reality.
    Sadly, alcohol just isn't very good for you in any significant quantity.
    My suspicion is that it gets worse for me every year
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,682

    carnforth said:

    For those who think our 14 drinks a week guidance is prissy:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64311705

    "If you must drink at all, two drinks maximum each week is deemed low-risk by the government-backed guidance."

    I drink over 100 units a week, have done for decades.

    Recent liver function tests all came back totally clear, speaking to two GPs and a nurse, every one of them said have at least two consecutive days dry (which I do) and don't worry about how much you drink on the other days.

    My vast levels of walking and drinking of water when not drinking alcohol were also seen as positive contributors to not getting unwell as a result of the excess alcohol.
    Informed, professional individual advice is usually better than a general rule. In the same way, I've drunk two cans of full-fat Coke pretty much every day for 50 years, accepting damage to teeth and monitoring sugar levels (I don't have treats/snacks etc.) - all seems fine. But the general rules are important as most people don't have either the detailed knowledge/advice to work out what exactly works for them or the self-discipline to stick to it. E.g. what hpapens if the mitigating factors change? If you were no longer able to walk much, would you feel able to cut back on the alcohol?
    20 units a day for five days every week is a lot, by any standards.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Sandpit said:

    Reports coming in of a Ukranian civilian helicopter crash in Kiev.

    A helicopter has crashed in a residential area in Brovary, east of Kyiv. Head of the National Police Ihor Klymenko says The leadership of the Ministry of Internal Affairs died as a result of the plane crash.” Interior Minister Denys Monastyrsky among them. 16 dead; 2 children.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1615627048671666177

  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,334
    Sandpit said:

    Ratters said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    UK CPI down to 10.5% in December, from 10.7% in November. Right direction at least.

    Disappointing. Thought it would fall more.
    Needs those steep fuel price increases of Feb-March last year to drop out. If the Government can keep the various pay disputes unsettled until then, the union's pay claims are going to look that much more greedy.

    The unions would be wise to bear that in mind and reach a settlement before that happens.
    The inflation numbers have been all over the place since the pandemic started. It would be an interesting exercise to look at how far actual prices have moved, say over four years from mid-2019 to mid-2023. My suspicion is that it’s lower than might be expected, perhaps around 3% per year.

    July 2019 was 2.0% https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/july2019
    Your suspicion would be wrong. Food prices have actually skyrocketed in that period, as has fuel. Luxury goods, which were used by Brown to justify his false accounting say inflation remained low have also gone up sharply, driven by chip shortages that didn't have much to do to the pandemic.
    Which is why I said it would be interesting to look at the actual numbers in the middle of this year, once the spikes in especially fuel have worked their way out of of the inflation numbers.
    We would need deflation of 4.5% between now and July in order to hit your 3% annualised over the four years from July 2019, so I think safe to say that won't happen.

    Even with zero inflation between now and then we'd end up at 4.2% annually.
    Indeed. I’m half expecting to see negative inflation by the summer, as the price spikes of this time last year drop out. The oil price is down more than 30% from the June high, as an example.

    It might well be 4% rather than 3%, but the perception is of there having being a couple of years of 10% inflation.
    on the other hand, oil prices could well rise significantly as the Chinese economy comes out of COVID induced hibernation and millions start to travel again.... falling energy is a fingers crossed scenario
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Unpopular said:

    Nigelb said:

    carnforth said:

    For those who think our 14 drinks a week guidance is prissy:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64311705

    "If you must drink at all, two drinks maximum each week is deemed low-risk by the government-backed guidance."

    It just reflects reality.
    Sadly, alcohol just isn't very good for you in any significant quantity.
    My suspicion is that it gets worse for me every year
    Yes, me too, sadly.
    My days of Leon level intake are in the past. With the occasional lapse.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 18,057
    Good morning. So just like Monday, TPE have cancelled both the 08:00 and 08:07 from Leeds to Manchester. And the 08:30 too, should I have thought about trying to wait for that. So once again it is Northern coming to my rescue.

    The 08:07 had set off from Scarborough, got as far as York and was then cancelled due to no crew.

    I am attempting to do my Delay Repay claim for Monday, but the site wont even load. TPE, ffs.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    @JenWilliams_FT: Good to hear the TPE situation getting attention on Radio 4 this morning.

    @JenWilliams_FT: And by situation I mean rolling nightmare
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    edited January 18

    Good morning. So just like Monday, TPE have cancelled both the 08:00 and 08:07 from Leeds to Manchester. And the 08:30 too, should I have thought about trying to wait for that. So once again it is Northern coming to my rescue.

    The 08:07 had set off from Scarborough, got as far as York and was then cancelled due to no crew.

    I am attempting to do my Delay Repay claim for Monday, but the site wont even load. TPE, ffs.

    I assume it had to have a new crew at York. Otherwise, it's started a bit early on the new driverless trains rollout.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reports coming in of a Ukranian civilian helicopter crash in Kiev.

    A helicopter has crashed in a residential area in Brovary, east of Kyiv. Head of the National Police Ihor Klymenko says The leadership of the Ministry of Internal Affairs died as a result of the plane crash.” Interior Minister Denys Monastyrsky among them. 16 dead; 2 children.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1615627048671666177
    Oh crap, if that’s confirmed. Ukranian equivalent of Home Secretary. Accident, sabotage, or shot down? Very worrying.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316

    Good morning. So just like Monday, TPE have cancelled both the 08:00 and 08:07 from Leeds to Manchester. And the 08:30 too, should I have thought about trying to wait for that. So once again it is Northern coming to my rescue.

    The 08:07 had set off from Scarborough, got as far as York and was then cancelled due to no crew.

    I am attempting to do my Delay Repay claim for Monday, but the site wont even load. TPE, ffs.

    The problem is apparently the ending of the drivers' overtime agreement, and government refusing a new one.
    Without overtime, there's insufficient capacity to train new drivers, which risks the situation getting even worse.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,322
    Sandpit said:

    Ratters said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    UK CPI down to 10.5% in December, from 10.7% in November. Right direction at least.

    Disappointing. Thought it would fall more.
    Needs those steep fuel price increases of Feb-March last year to drop out. If the Government can keep the various pay disputes unsettled until then, the union's pay claims are going to look that much more greedy.

    The unions would be wise to bear that in mind and reach a settlement before that happens.
    The inflation numbers have been all over the place since the pandemic started. It would be an interesting exercise to look at how far actual prices have moved, say over four years from mid-2019 to mid-2023. My suspicion is that it’s lower than might be expected, perhaps around 3% per year.

    July 2019 was 2.0% https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/july2019
    Your suspicion would be wrong. Food prices have actually skyrocketed in that period, as has fuel. Luxury goods, which were used by Brown to justify his false accounting say inflation remained low have also gone up sharply, driven by chip shortages that didn't have much to do to the pandemic.
    Which is why I said it would be interesting to look at the actual numbers in the middle of this year, once the spikes in especially fuel have worked their way out of of the inflation numbers.
    We would need deflation of 4.5% between now and July in order to hit your 3% annualised over the four years from July 2019, so I think safe to say that won't happen.

    Even with zero inflation between now and then we'd end up at 4.2% annually.
    Indeed. I’m half expecting to see negative inflation by the summer, as the price spikes of this time last year drop out. The oil price is down more than 30% from the June high, as an example.

    It might well be 4% rather than 3%, but the perception is of there having being a couple of years of 10% inflation.
    For a lot of people on low incomes in the UK inflation over the last couple of years is well over 20%, hence the perception.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    edited January 18
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reports coming in of a Ukranian civilian helicopter crash in Kiev.

    A helicopter has crashed in a residential area in Brovary, east of Kyiv. Head of the National Police Ihor Klymenko says The leadership of the Ministry of Internal Affairs died as a result of the plane crash.” Interior Minister Denys Monastyrsky among them. 16 dead; 2 children.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1615627048671666177
    Oh crap, if that’s confirmed. Ukranian equivalent of Home Secretary. Accident, sabotage, or shot down? Very worrying.
    Pretty sure it's official.
    Christopher Miller is a highly reputable journalist on the spot - and I see it's just been reported on the BBC, too.

    Grim news.

    Only nine of the dead were in the helicopter.
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1615627928267530241
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,322
    carnforth said:

    For those who think our 14 drinks a week guidance is prissy:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64311705

    "If you must drink at all, two drinks maximum each week is deemed low-risk by the government-backed guidance."

    Fear not, Canadian "drinks" seem the equivalent of roughly 1.5 Uk Units, so we are allowed 3.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    edited January 18
    FWIW
    Whether the s35 Order is justified depends on reasons advanced by HMG for saying GRR has adverse effect on UK equality law. For the reasons I have tweeted those reasons do not begin to justify its use. It’s a nuclear weapon used in a minor skirmish.
    https://twitter.com/LordCFalconer/status/1615424816680472594

    His arguments.
    https://twitter.com/LordCFalconer/status/1615400867015819278
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,769
    Thread on inflation:

    Something for everyone in today's UK #inflation data...

    First, the good news.

    The headline rate has peaked (as it has in the US and rest of the Europe): the #CPI measure fell again in December, to 10.5%, from 10.7% in November and the high of 11.1% in October... (1/7)

    This mainly reflects lower #fuel price inflation, but also lower inflation for other goods including clothing and footwear and household goods.

    The bad news, of course, is that 10.5% is still far too high... (2/7)


    https://twitter.com/julianHjessop/status/1615630151663947779
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reports coming in of a Ukranian civilian helicopter crash in Kiev.

    A helicopter has crashed in a residential area in Brovary, east of Kyiv. Head of the National Police Ihor Klymenko says The leadership of the Ministry of Internal Affairs died as a result of the plane crash.” Interior Minister Denys Monastyrsky among them. 16 dead; 2 children.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1615627048671666177
    Oh crap, if that’s confirmed. Ukranian equivalent of Home Secretary. Accident, sabotage, or shot down? Very worrying.
    Pretty sure it's official.
    Christopher Miller is a highly reputable journalist on the spot - and I see it's just been reported on the BBC, too.

    Grim news.
    Seems to be everywhere now, not good at all.

    Fingers crossed it turns out to be just another civilian helicopter malfunction, rather than a bad actor.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,863
    Sandpit said:

    UK CPI down to 10.5% in December, from 10.7% in November. Right direction at least.

    The monthly figure is the one to look at. 0.4% - So the annualised inflation rate if we carry on as were would be between 1.0035^12 and 1.0045^12 %

    Indicates inflation is heading toward between 4.3 and 5.5%.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,949
    COVID-19 PCR testing network scaled down

    From [yesterday] the Rosalind Franklin Laboratory will cease to process PCR tests for COVID-19 in response to reduced demand.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-pcr-testing-network-scaled-down
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    edited January 18
    Nigelb said:

    FWIW
    Whether the s35 Order is justified depends on reasons advanced by HMG for saying GRR has adverse effect on UK equality law. For the reasons I have tweeted those reasons do not begin to justify its use. It’s a nuclear weapon used in a minor skirmish.
    https://twitter.com/LordCFalconer/status/1615424816680472594

    His arguments.
    https://twitter.com/LordCFalconer/status/1615400867015819278

    Those arguments are interesting because he's not actually in practice denying that the statement of reasons is correct. He's just saying that it's a series of objections that would in the real world be unlikely to cause a problem because there would be so few cases where it applied and therefore its use is wholly disproportionate.

    In the latter if the figures he's quoted are right he's obviously correct, but I'm not totally sure that the Supreme Court would agree with him that technicalities are irrelevant. That was the whole basis on which they threw out Sturgeon's referendum petition (albeit that would have had a far more significant impact if allowed).

    Ultimately of course that's why it's a good law for both sides in this debate to get het up over. If it was something Sturgeon or Jack really cared about it would never have got to this stage.

    In my view they're foolish to use something so emotive as a political football, but then they are both very foolish as they have amply demonstrated in many other ways so that's a bit of case of 'no change.'
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    I suspect Biden will run again and if he does likely get the nomination again.

    On the GOP side if it is the traditional Iowa and NH cycle not impossible Pence wins Iowa, as the GOP caucuses there are full of evangelical Christians like him, while Trump wins the New Hampshire primary again as he did in 2016 and 2020
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,863
    Chopper mishap overwhelmingly likely to be a malfunction I think, passé Bryant and Srivaddhanaprabha.
    I'm guessing helicopters are among the riskier transport methods.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,769
    Nigelb said:

    FWIW
    Whether the s35 Order is justified depends on reasons advanced by HMG for saying GRR has adverse effect on UK equality law. For the reasons I have tweeted those reasons do not begin to justify its use. It’s a nuclear weapon used in a minor skirmish.
    https://twitter.com/LordCFalconer/status/1615424816680472594

    His arguments.
    https://twitter.com/LordCFalconer/status/1615400867015819278

    Alternative view:

    Sturgeon's GRR Bill. Former Supreme Court judge Lord Hope's devastating assessment of SG's legal challenge chance of success? [VIDEO]

    https://twitter.com/markthehibby/status/1615496497147035648

    The test apparently is not whether Jack is “right” but whether his concerns are “reasonable”. So ScotGov has to prove they are unreasonable. Given all the advice they were given, but ignored, about interaction with the Equality Act before they passed the bill that may not be a hill they wish to die on.

    Timely reminder. Now 18 months since Supreme Court ruled UN Convention on Rights of Child (Incorporation) (Scotland) Bill was unlawful because exceeded devolved powers. FM said it left her unable to fully protect children’s rights She is still to bring back an amended bill. 1/2

    The Q of which government is making a “full frontal assault” on devolution over the GRR bill will similarly be resolved in court with onus potentially placed on SG to bring back an amended bill which satisfies GRA reform and legal competence. 2/2


    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1615116932516028420


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    TOPPING said:

    In other, shock news, Bishops are expected to veto same sex marriage in the Church of England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64313367

    Not sure if @HYUFD agreed to my wager that it wouldn't be happening over the next two years.

    Why anyone would want to be a member of a club that wouldn't have them as a member, however, remains a mystery.

    Very misleading BBC headline, as I said before the Church was never going to endorse full gay marriage as doctrine.

    If you actually read the article it says prayers will be able to be said for gay marriages and same sex clergy will be able to not be celibate for the first time, which is close to the fudge I predicted.

    Though it looks like liberals are still going to try and force a vote on it at Synod next month anyway whatever the Bishops propose
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,240
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    UK CPI down to 10.5% in December, from 10.7% in November. Right direction at least.

    The monthly figure is the one to look at. 0.4% - So the annualised inflation rate if we carry on as were would be between 1.0035^12 and 1.0045^12 %

    Indicates inflation is heading toward between 4.3 and 5.5%.
    By way of comparison, the news yesterday was that the monthly figure in Ireland was negative (though I didn't hear by how much), so it would seem as though inflation is more sticky in Britain than in at least some other places.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    FWIW
    Whether the s35 Order is justified depends on reasons advanced by HMG for saying GRR has adverse effect on UK equality law. For the reasons I have tweeted those reasons do not begin to justify its use. It’s a nuclear weapon used in a minor skirmish.
    https://twitter.com/LordCFalconer/status/1615424816680472594

    His arguments.
    https://twitter.com/LordCFalconer/status/1615400867015819278

    Those arguments are interesting because he's not actually in practice denying that the statement of reasons is correct. He's just saying that it's a series of objections that would in the real world be unlikely to cause a problem because there would be so few cases where it applied and therefore its use is wholly disproportionate.

    In the latter if the figures he's quoted are right he's obviously correct, but I'm not totally sure that the Supreme Court would agree with him that technicalities are irrelevant. That was the whole basis on which they threw out Sturgeon's referendum petition (albeit that would have had a far more significant impact if allowed).

    Ultimately of course that's why it's a good law for both sides in this debate to get het up over. If it was something Sturgeon or Jack really cared about it would never have got to this stage.

    In my view they're foolish to use something so emotive as a political football, but then they are both very foolish as they have amply demonstrated in many other ways so that's a bit of case of 'no change.'
    The constitutional point is, though, that even if you believe the legislation wholly misconceived, the decision to use s35 in this case shows an extraordinarily narrow interpretation of Scotland's freedom to run its own affairs.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 105,491
    edited January 18
    King Charles should resign as Supreme Governor of the Church of England otherwise he is condoning homophobia.

    #NotMyKing
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reports coming in of a Ukranian civilian helicopter crash in Kiev.

    A helicopter has crashed in a residential area in Brovary, east of Kyiv. Head of the National Police Ihor Klymenko says The leadership of the Ministry of Internal Affairs died as a result of the plane crash.” Interior Minister Denys Monastyrsky among them. 16 dead; 2 children.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1615627048671666177
    Oh crap, if that’s confirmed. Ukranian equivalent of Home Secretary. Accident, sabotage, or shot down? Very worrying.
    Pretty sure it's official.
    Christopher Miller is a highly reputable journalist on the spot - and I see it's just been reported on the BBC, too.

    Grim news.
    Seems to be everywhere now, not good at all.

    Fingers crossed it turns out to be just another civilian helicopter malfunction, rather than a bad actor.
    Blue (and yellow) on blue is another distinct possibility - AFU shot down one of their own Fulcrums with an SA-8 last week. The Mi-8 (which I assume it was) actually has a not bad safety record by RW standards. Redundant generators, very robust gearbox, etc.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,769
    As expected. Small legal clarification, though: a Judicial Review is not an “appeal”. It will not consider the merits of the s35. Rather, it will consider whether it was lawfully and rationally invoked.

    https://twitter.com/RoddyQC/status/1615628844240670720

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,949
    edited January 18

    Here’s why ‘Trussonomics’ could soon be back on the agenda
    Latest figures suggest Government finances have more leeway than first thought, and the upcoming Budget might just hold a few surprises

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/01/17/why-trussonomics-could-soon-back-agenda/ (£££)

    Tory MPs are pressing for tax cuts, as did Boris last week. Could these be related?

    Tax cuts while claiming there is no money to pay public sector workers more would be a very bad look.
    Ah but the less numerate backbenchers and journalists will point to the reduced inflation rate (eta: as justification for low pay rises), forgetting that, as ydoethur has said, prices that have already risen will (in general) not fall.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,006
    Pulpstar said:

    Chopper mishap overwhelmingly likely to be a malfunction I think, passé Bryant and Srivaddhanaprabha.
    I'm guessing helicopters are among the riskier transport methods.

    They are millionaire killers
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,594

    Good morning. So just like Monday, TPE have cancelled both the 08:00 and 08:07 from Leeds to Manchester. And the 08:30 too, should I have thought about trying to wait for that. So once again it is Northern coming to my rescue.

    The 08:07 had set off from Scarborough, got as far as York and was then cancelled due to no crew.

    I am attempting to do my Delay Repay claim for Monday, but the site wont even load. TPE, ffs.

    Even before COVID and the strikes TPE were awful.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,322

    Here’s why ‘Trussonomics’ could soon be back on the agenda
    Latest figures suggest Government finances have more leeway than first thought, and the upcoming Budget might just hold a few surprises

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/01/17/why-trussonomics-could-soon-back-agenda/ (£££)

    Tory MPs are pressing for tax cuts, as did Boris last week. Could these be related?

    Tax cuts while claiming there is no money to pay public sector workers more would be a very bad look.
    Indeed. If they have some spare cash far more efficient to simply offer their mates some fat juicy public sector contracts that the public are not allowed to see.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    In other, shock news, Bishops are expected to veto same sex marriage in the Church of England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64313367

    Not sure if @HYUFD agreed to my wager that it wouldn't be happening over the next two years.

    Why anyone would want to be a member of a club that wouldn't have them as a member, however, remains a mystery.

    Very misleading BBC headline, as I said before the Church was never going to endorse full gay marriage as doctrine.
    You're really going to try to deny you said they were going to allow same-sex marriage ceremonies in church?

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792
    Pulpstar said:

    Chopper mishap overwhelmingly likely to be a malfunction I think, passé Bryant and Srivaddhanaprabha.
    I'm guessing helicopters are among the riskier transport methods.

    Lynx was brilliant - 80 odd total losses in accidents from 450 built.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,933
    edited January 18
    ydoethur said:

    Good morning. So just like Monday, TPE have cancelled both the 08:00 and 08:07 from Leeds to Manchester. And the 08:30 too, should I have thought about trying to wait for that. So once again it is Northern coming to my rescue.

    The 08:07 had set off from Scarborough, got as far as York and was then cancelled due to no crew.

    I am attempting to do my Delay Repay claim for Monday, but the site wont even load. TPE, ffs.

    I assume it had to have a new crew at York. Otherwise, it's started a bit early on the new driverless trains rollout.
    Yes. This is the DfT solution for letting a franchise based on 3 new fleets of trains and a recruitment freeze. Simply remove route cards from your drivers so that they can focus on driving multiple types of train on fewer routes. So your Scarborough - Liverpool train now needs 3 drivers.

    This is why there hasn't been the Tories' hoped-for backlash against the striking rail staff. For millions of rail users the service is useless on non-strike days. If anything its more reliable on strike days as the reduced timetable is more resilient!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,769
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    FWIW
    Whether the s35 Order is justified depends on reasons advanced by HMG for saying GRR has adverse effect on UK equality law. For the reasons I have tweeted those reasons do not begin to justify its use. It’s a nuclear weapon used in a minor skirmish.
    https://twitter.com/LordCFalconer/status/1615424816680472594

    His arguments.
    https://twitter.com/LordCFalconer/status/1615400867015819278

    Those arguments are interesting because he's not actually in practice denying that the statement of reasons is correct. He's just saying that it's a series of objections that would in the real world be unlikely to cause a problem because there would be so few cases where it applied and therefore its use is wholly disproportionate.

    In the latter if the figures he's quoted are right he's obviously correct, but I'm not totally sure that the Supreme Court would agree with him that technicalities are irrelevant. That was the whole basis on which they threw out Sturgeon's referendum petition (albeit that would have had a far more significant impact if allowed).

    Ultimately of course that's why it's a good law for both sides in this debate to get het up over. If it was something Sturgeon or Jack really cared about it would never have got to this stage.

    In my view they're foolish to use something so emotive as a political football, but then they are both very foolish as they have amply demonstrated in many other ways so that's a bit of case of 'no change.'
    The constitutional point is, though, that even if you believe the legislation wholly misconceived, the decision to use s35 in this case shows an extraordinarily narrow interpretation of Scotland's freedom to run its own affairs.
    Surely the point of S.35 is that this legislation also affects the affairs of people in England, Wales and NI, over which the Scottish Parliament has no writ.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,345

    carnforth said:

    For those who think our 14 drinks a week guidance is prissy:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64311705

    "If you must drink at all, two drinks maximum each week is deemed low-risk by the government-backed guidance."

    Fear not, Canadian "drinks" seem the equivalent of roughly 1.5 Uk Units, so we are allowed 3.
    I think it is an absolutely disgraceful report. My wife (a doctor) has been giving me a hard time about my drinking all morning, forcing me to put up HYUFD type arguments to defend the indefensible
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    carnforth said:

    For those who think our 14 drinks a week guidance is prissy:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64311705

    "If you must drink at all, two drinks maximum each week is deemed low-risk by the government-backed guidance."

    I drink, on average, a bottle of red wine every day and a smattering of gin and tonics. Sometimes more, rarely less. The odd dry day here and there

    And I have had a a fucking HOOT for forty adult years
  • Nigelb said:

    FWIW
    Whether the s35 Order is justified depends on reasons advanced by HMG for saying GRR has adverse effect on UK equality law. For the reasons I have tweeted those reasons do not begin to justify its use. It’s a nuclear weapon used in a minor skirmish.
    https://twitter.com/LordCFalconer/status/1615424816680472594

    His arguments.
    https://twitter.com/LordCFalconer/status/1615400867015819278

    Alternative view:

    Sturgeon's GRR Bill. Former Supreme Court judge Lord Hope's devastating assessment of SG's legal challenge chance of success? [VIDEO]

    https://twitter.com/markthehibby/status/1615496497147035648

    The test apparently is not whether Jack is “right” but whether his concerns are “reasonable”. So ScotGov has to prove they are unreasonable. Given all the advice they were given, but ignored, about interaction with the Equality Act before they passed the bill that may not be a hill they wish to die on.

    Timely reminder. Now 18 months since Supreme Court ruled UN Convention on Rights of Child (Incorporation) (Scotland) Bill was unlawful because exceeded devolved powers. FM said it left her unable to fully protect children’s rights She is still to bring back an amended bill. 1/2

    The Q of which government is making a “full frontal assault” on devolution over the GRR bill will similarly be resolved in court with onus potentially placed on SG to bring back an amended bill which satisfies GRA reform and legal competence. 2/2


    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1615116932516028420


    The S35 order is gift week for the SNP. It doesn't matter about the GRR bill, its now an assault on Westminster Tories on Holyrood to impose a Tory veto on anything they do. That stalwart of Scottish independence Lord Falconer tears the Tory argument apart in a detailed thread: https://twitter.com/LordCFalconer/status/1615400867015819278

    What it means for Scotland isn't good.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    Who the fuck wants to live on TWO drinks a week?

    Especially if you have to live in…… Canada
This discussion has been closed.