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Trump looks a good bet for the WH2024 nomination – politicalbetting.com
Trump looks a good bet for the WH2024 nomination – politicalbetting.com
In less than a year we should see the first Primary in the 2024 White House Race. There is a lot of debate going on within the Democratic party about which state should be first with efforts being made to dislodge Iowa and New Hampshire from their normal first slots.
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If Trump does well in the early stages I reckon that could boost Biden (a) because age becomes less of an issue and (b) because he's beaten him once already.
Not sure how that affects the betting in either nomination market though!
I think Trump is going to be a lay, with many in the party hierarchy feeling that he failed to make the expected gains from his mid-term candidates. He still has a lot of very vocal supporters though.
DeSantis is I think hoping to avoid running this time, especially against Trump, wanting to keep his slate clean for 2028. The question is, can he be cajoled into running by those opposed to Trump, even though the two of them fish in similar waters?
It’s also worth mentioning that DeS can’t be Trump’s running mate, as they’re both from the same state.
Perhaps the value is in laying the pair of them at this stage?
I think that, if the Republicans don’t choose Trump, the Dems don’t choose Biden again. The big question for the Dems, is how can they sideline the incumbent without making VP Harris the presumptive nominee? She might check all of their diversity boxes, but has been a terrible VP and would be a terrible candidate.
Latest figures suggest Government finances have more leeway than first thought, and the upcoming Budget might just hold a few surprises
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/01/17/why-trussonomics-could-soon-back-agenda/ (£££)
Tory MPs are pressing for tax cuts, as did Boris last week. Could these be related?
The gerontocracy of the United States has got totally out of hand. It is long past time we moved on to a new generation, indeed 2 new generations with much younger candidates for both parties.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/18/jeremy-hunt-slimmed-down-spring-budget-no-tax-cuts
Chlamydia can be cured but there's no medicine for regret.
This isn't my book talking.
I don't want it to be DeSantis, I don't think I could cope with a POTUS younger than me.
Having said that, a cut in the basic rate to accompany the pre-announced stealth increases is an obvious bit of Thatcher-by-numbers.
I think there have now been 3 PM's that have been younger than me: Cameron, Truss and Sunak. With public services strike ridden and rapidly deteriorating, tax cuts would make that 20% Labour lead a reality. It would be electoral oblivion for the Tories.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11646491/Met-Police-inspector-facing-raft-child-porn-charges-dead.html
This one won’t be needing prison.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/jan/17/owner-of-uk-care-home-group-paid-himself-21m-despite-safety-concerns
Privatisation isn't an instant solution to quality nor consumer responsiveness it seems, yet those siren voices of the lobbyists always see it as an essential "Reform".
Government work to protect the UK’s national security is being undermined by delays and failures in vetting civil servants, a report reveals today.
Officials needing access to sensitive and secret documents are required to undergo extensive background checks in a process known as developed vetting. However, the report by the National Audit Office (NAO) has found that “unacceptable delays” are hampering the appointment process.
The NAO found that the government’s vetting service, which is run by the Cabinet Office, is processing just 7 per cent of applicants before the three-month deadline. Even lower- level security clearances are suffering delays, with only 15 per cent of basic anti-terrorism checks taking place within the target of 25 days.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-national-security-risk-government-whitehall-vetting-2023-vlbh09dxj
Soeaking of which, Biden's ratings have improved since I last looked - up to single negative figures and the odd positive one:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Cutting taxes when there is more money in the budget than expected is pretty standard conservative economics. It was the entirely unfunded nature of Truss' tax cuts that was their defining feature.
It's not as if Trump has spent the past year looking like some great sage who America was stupid to reject.
For context, roughly 25% of our total national debt incurred over the last 230 years actually occurred during the 4 years of the Trump administration. That's right. 25% of our entire national debt, all during the Trump years.
https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidJollyFL/status/1615549724865568769
The unions would be wise to bear that in mind and reach a settlement before that happens.
And he always is eager to spend.
July 2019 was 2.0% https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/july2019
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/18/jeremy-hunt-slimmed-down-spring-budget-no-tax-cuts
Is the electorate really so stupid not to understand that if inflation has already cut your real pay, a drop in inflation doesn't make you better off ?
Otherwise why would the Tory client vote be so attached to the triple lock ?
justify his false accountingsay inflation remained low have also gone up sharply, driven by chip shortages that didn't have much to do to the pandemic.https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64306691
"Italian Pier Antonio Panzeri held in EU-Qatargate bribery probe agrees to tell all"
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64311705
"If you must drink at all, two drinks maximum each week is deemed low-risk by the government-backed guidance."
She became our shortest-serving Prime Minister because she proposed to cut taxes with not even a hint of a plan of how they were to be paid for.
Recent liver function tests all came back totally clear, speaking to two GPs and a nurse, every one of them said have at least two consecutive days dry (which I do) and don't worry about how much you drink on the other days.
My vast levels of walking and drinking of water when not drinking alcohol were also seen as positive contributors to not getting unwell as a result of the excess alcohol.
Sadly, alcohol just isn't very good for you in any significant quantity.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64313367
Not sure if @HYUFD agreed to my wager that it wouldn't be happening over the next two years.
Why anyone would want to be a member of a club that wouldn't have them as a member, however, remains a mystery.
Of course, ‘activist’ groups love the idea of inserting themselves into places where they’ve not traditionally been accepted, not because they want to be members, but because they think that the place should change to accommodate them.
https://www.politico.eu/article/bulgaria-volodymyr-zelenskyy-kiril-petkov-poorest-country-eu-ukraine/
While Petkov, who was Bulgarian prime minister at the outbreak of the war, was attempting to pull the country in a more westward, pro-NATO trajectory, he had to grapple with intense blowback from pro-Kremlin politicians, including among his coalition partners, the Socialists, who are the successors to the old Communist Party. He even had to fire his own defense minister for parroting Russia’s spin on the war. In public, at least, Petkov sought to play down any idea that Bulgaria — despite considerable stocks of Soviet-era weaponry — would step up and arm Ukraine.
Given these sensitivities, Bulgaria’s official stance toward the war has seen it lumped in the same basket as Viktor Orbán’s Hungary — too politically in hock to Moscow to pull its weight.
But Petkov and Vassilev, now opposition politicians seeking a path back to power in expected upcoming elections, have broken their silence on the true scale of Bulgaria’s role last spring...
...“We estimate that about a third of the ammunition needed by the Ukrainian army in the early phase of the war came from Bulgaria,” Petkov told WELT.
Recent analyses suggest that it was actually Ukrainian artillery rather than western anti tank weapons which was the more significant factor in halting the initial assault on Kyiv.
Coincidentally, December 2022 month-on-month inflation was 0.4%, which equates to 4.9% annually.
We've definitely had a period of very high inflation, even allowing for the COVID period where it was very low.
Data all here to calculate: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7bt/mm23
It's going to need a very big drop to give a net overall reduction in price.
Even with zero inflation between now and then we'd end up at 4.2% annually.
It might well be 4% rather than 3%, but the perception is of there having being a couple of years of 10% inflation.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1615627048671666177
My days of Leon level intake are in the past. With the occasional lapse.
The 08:07 had set off from Scarborough, got as far as York and was then cancelled due to no crew.
I am attempting to do my Delay Repay claim for Monday, but the site wont even load. TPE, ffs.
@JenWilliams_FT: And by situation I mean rolling nightmare
Without overtime, there's insufficient capacity to train new drivers, which risks the situation getting even worse.
Christopher Miller is a highly reputable journalist on the spot - and I see it's just been reported on the BBC, too.
Grim news.
Only nine of the dead were in the helicopter.
https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1615627928267530241
Whether the s35 Order is justified depends on reasons advanced by HMG for saying GRR has adverse effect on UK equality law. For the reasons I have tweeted those reasons do not begin to justify its use. It’s a nuclear weapon used in a minor skirmish.
https://twitter.com/LordCFalconer/status/1615424816680472594
His arguments.
https://twitter.com/LordCFalconer/status/1615400867015819278
Something for everyone in today's UK #inflation data...
First, the good news.
The headline rate has peaked (as it has in the US and rest of the Europe): the #CPI measure fell again in December, to 10.5%, from 10.7% in November and the high of 11.1% in October... (1/7)
This mainly reflects lower #fuel price inflation, but also lower inflation for other goods including clothing and footwear and household goods.
The bad news, of course, is that 10.5% is still far too high... (2/7)
https://twitter.com/julianHjessop/status/1615630151663947779
Fingers crossed it turns out to be just another civilian helicopter malfunction, rather than a bad actor.
Indicates inflation is heading toward between 4.3 and 5.5%.
From [yesterday] the Rosalind Franklin Laboratory will cease to process PCR tests for COVID-19 in response to reduced demand.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-pcr-testing-network-scaled-down
In the latter if the figures he's quoted are right he's obviously correct, but I'm not totally sure that the Supreme Court would agree with him that technicalities are irrelevant. That was the whole basis on which they threw out Sturgeon's referendum petition (albeit that would have had a far more significant impact if allowed).
Ultimately of course that's why it's a good law for both sides in this debate to get het up over. If it was something Sturgeon or Jack really cared about it would never have got to this stage.
In my view they're foolish to use something so emotive as a political football, but then they are both very foolish as they have amply demonstrated in many other ways so that's a bit of case of 'no change.'
On the GOP side if it is the traditional Iowa and NH cycle not impossible Pence wins Iowa, as the GOP caucuses there are full of evangelical Christians like him, while Trump wins the New Hampshire primary again as he did in 2016 and 2020
I'm guessing helicopters are among the riskier transport methods.
Sturgeon's GRR Bill. Former Supreme Court judge Lord Hope's devastating assessment of SG's legal challenge chance of success? [VIDEO]
https://twitter.com/markthehibby/status/1615496497147035648
The test apparently is not whether Jack is “right” but whether his concerns are “reasonable”. So ScotGov has to prove they are unreasonable. Given all the advice they were given, but ignored, about interaction with the Equality Act before they passed the bill that may not be a hill they wish to die on.
Timely reminder. Now 18 months since Supreme Court ruled UN Convention on Rights of Child (Incorporation) (Scotland) Bill was unlawful because exceeded devolved powers. FM said it left her unable to fully protect children’s rights She is still to bring back an amended bill. 1/2
The Q of which government is making a “full frontal assault” on devolution over the GRR bill will similarly be resolved in court with onus potentially placed on SG to bring back an amended bill which satisfies GRA reform and legal competence. 2/2
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1615116932516028420
If you actually read the article it says prayers will be able to be said for gay marriages and same sex clergy will be able to not be celibate for the first time, which is close to the fudge I predicted.
Though it looks like liberals are still going to try and force a vote on it at Synod next month anyway whatever the Bishops propose
#NotMyKing
https://twitter.com/RoddyQC/status/1615628844240670720
The separate issue that the SNP think devolution doesn't apply to them because they think of Scotland as an independent nation run by a foreign power is a different problem.
This is why there hasn't been the Tories' hoped-for backlash against the striking rail staff. For millions of rail users the service is useless on non-strike days. If anything its more reliable on strike days as the reduced timetable is more resilient!
And I have had a a fucking HOOT for forty adult years
What it means for Scotland isn't good.
Especially if you have to live in…… Canada