"What ChatGPT is, in this instance, is replication as travesty. ChatGPT may be able to write a speech or an essay or a sermon or an obituary but it cannot create a genuine song. It could perhaps in time create a song that is, on the surface, indistinguishable from an original, but it will always be a replication, a kind of burlesque.
Songs arise out of suffering, by which I mean they are predicated upon the complex, internal human struggle of creation and, well, as far as I know, algorithms don’t feel. Data doesn’t suffer. ChatGPT has no inner being, it has been nowhere, it has endured nothing, it has not had the audacity to reach beyond its limitations, and hence it doesn’t have the capacity for a shared transcendent experience, as it has no limitations from which to transcend. ChatGPT’s melancholy role is that it is destined to imitate and can never have an authentic human experience, no matter how devalued and inconsequential the human experience may in time become.
What makes a great song great is not its close resemblance to a recognizable work. Writing a good song is not mimicry, or replication, or pastiche, it is the opposite. It is an act of self-murder that destroys all one has strived to produce in the past. It is those dangerous, heart-stopping departures that catapult the artist beyond the limits of what he or she recognises as their known self. This is part of the authentic creative struggle that precedes the invention of a unique lyric of actual value; it is the breathless confrontation with one’s vulnerability, one’s perilousness, one’s smallness, pitted against a sense of sudden shocking discovery; it is the redemptive artistic act that stirs the heart of the listener, where the listener recognizes in the inner workings of the song their own blood, their own struggle, their own suffering. This is what we humble humans can offer, that AI can only mimic, the transcendent journey of the artist that forever grapples with his or her own shortcomings. This is where human genius resides, deeply embedded within, yet reaching beyond, those limitations."
I think I would enjoy obituaries written by Nick Cave.
I asked ChatGPT to write an obituary of Margaret Thatcher in the style of Nick Cave, but it wouldn't without changing the name to avoid being disrespectful. It came up with this, which is truly shit, - only the disclaimer at the end is funny:
"She came like a storm, a force to be reckoned with Martha Tiler, the Iron Will, our Prime Minister She divided us, with her policies so strict But her leadership, you couldn't help but predict
She privatized, she unionized, she went to war She changed the nation, forevermore But now her time has come, her reign is through Martha Tiler, our divisive leader, we bid adieu
She was the Red Right Hand, of British politics A Mercy Seat, for some, a curse for others Into the Arms, of history she'll be Where the Wild Roses Grow, her legacy
But now The Weeping Song, echoes through the land For a leader who, with a iron hand, lead this nation But now she's gone, and we're left to mourn Martha Tiler, forever in our hearts, will be reborn.
Please note that this is a fictional example and it is not to be taken as a real obituary of any person living or dead, this is a form of creative writing and also, it's not meant to be disrespectful in any way."
So Nick Cave is complaining that ChatGPT, which is a machine, is a machine?
lol
No. Nick Cave is pointing out to people that ChatGPT can't replace art it can only replicate it.
This is not intelligent. All art is replication and recombination. It does not arrive ex nihilo. It is comprised of the various artistic influences the artist has seen, read, encountered, loved, hated, envied, abjured, these are then spliced and diced in the artistic brain and something "new" is synthesised. But it is not really new. It is not a brand new thing. It is made up of already used language, or images, or whatever, the same way a new human baby is made from genetic recombination
Machines will absolutely do all that. And convincingly like a human. And it will be very very good art, in its ability to amuse, move, inspire, depress, purge, and redeem us
You are misunderstanding. Again.
Art is whatever the artist says it is, that goes without saying. ChatGPT is a tool. Like acrylic or video or bricks. It is something that an artist uses to create art and without the artist it is nothing or certainly not art in itself.
If anything it is like American action painting whereby a prompt from the artist can set it off and thereby the process becomes art. Perhaps like a Barnett Newman it will end up in galleries. But without understanding the ideas behind a Barnett Newman it remains nothing more than a fun wiki.
We are not going to persuade each other. As a person who actually creates for a living, unlike you, I suggest I know more about this. But of course you will demur, and fair enough
You, like many, will be shocked by the reality of this when it happens. However, the dread day might be further off than was thought. Intriguingly, OpenAI have now announced that GPT4 will be "delayed". Reasons not given
ChatGPT is a great tool to write history essays when it replicates in its unique and amusing way the known facts. But it doesn't do original thought. It copies what someone else already knows. That is what makes it not art and just a tool to create art.
You are probably failing to grasp the distinction and you wouldn't be the first; you artists are so flaky.
THERE. IS. SUCH. THING, AS. ORIGINAL. THOUGHT
You really mean "human thought". All of these arguments boil down to this. "It cannot be art because it is not human". "It cannot be intelligence because it is not human". "It cannot be original..."
And so on. I respect the sentiments behind this, but they are not logical. It is understandable fear and defensiveness dressed as argumentation
Not at all.
It processes super-cleverly a huge amount of information. The transition from computers back in the '60s to Apple Watches now. Amazing. But it doesn't think. It calculates.
It doesn't feel grief, elation, joy, sadness, hope, despair, disappointment, hunger, longing. All the feelings, for example, that a day on PB brings to its contributors.
Which, again, boils down to: it is not human
I get it. It's boring. I get it. Enuff
Thank you; it's very rarely that someone actually changes their mind on PB.
lol. No. I still think you are a bear of very little creative brain. But it is late afternoon in Bangkok. The magical hour approaches. Tanqueray O'Clock
Enjoy. I still think you are admirably childlike in your amazement and wonder at any number of phenomena and brand new shiny things in this case ChatGPT. It is what makes you you that you can't understand the nuances of it all and why should you; you are an artist. Creating works of immense importance.
Why, didn't one of your works top the LHR WH Smith (Terminal 2) Top 10 best seller list for weeks on end?
You will get a lot of grief for posting those photos
But it is arguable we need to see them. This is not about grown men who like dresses (good luck to them, let them wear what they like). This is about horrible mutilating surgery given to kids who are not old enough to understand the implications, which are clearly lifelong and often medically horrendous
I know of two girls, one a relative, the other the daughter of a friend, who have considered themselves to be boys since around the age of 12. Both of them were repulsed when their breasts started to develop, and they are both desperately saving and looking forward to when they turn 18 and can have them removed. That's just my anecdote, but in their cases the feeling of being in the wrong body certainly seemed to be innate rather then due to external influences. It would be interesting to know how many such girls change their minds about having their breasts removed between the ages of 16 and 18.
There's certainly a considerable lack of logic in being implacably opposed to puberty blockers, which are reversible, as well as surgery.
This is an area of great controversy. It is not settled at all
"Little is known about the long-term side effects of hormone or puberty blockers in children with gender dysphoria.
Although GIDS advises this is a physically reversible treatment if stopped, it is not known what the psychological effects may be.
It's also not known whether hormone blockers affect the development of the teenage brain or children's bones. Side effects may also include hot flushes, fatigue and mood alterations."
A surprisingly ill-informed debate on PB this morning
Puberty blockers have been in use for several decades, so there is considerable evidence of long term safety.
The evidence for using puberty blocking drugs to treat young people struggling with their gender identity is "very low", an official review has found. The National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) said existing studies of the drugs were small and "subject to bias and confounding".
I agree with the interim Cass report that clinical trials need to be conducted to get better science.
I think the NHS England current guidelines are reasonable and based on available evidence not propaganda promulgated by activists:
Hormone therapy in children and young people Some young people with lasting signs of gender dysphoria who meet strict criteria may be referred to a hormone specialist (consultant endocrinologist) to see if they can take hormone blockers as they reach puberty. This is in addition to psychological support.
Puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones
Puberty blockers (gonadotrophin-releasing hormone analogues) pause the physical changes of puberty, such as breast development or facial hair.
Little is known about the long-term side effects of hormone or puberty blockers in children with gender dysphoria.
Although GIDS advises this is a physically reversible treatment if stopped, it is not known what the psychological effects may be.
It's also not known whether hormone blockers affect the development of the teenage brain or children's bones. Side effects may also include hot flushes, fatigue and mood alterations.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
It was certainly bracing when I cycled in this morning. One thing I've noticed is how hard it is to really imagine being cold when you're somewhere hot, and vice-versa. Three weeks ago I was lying by the pool in Sri Lanka but I can't really believe it happened now.
You will get a lot of grief for posting those photos
But it is arguable we need to see them. This is not about grown men who like dresses (good luck to them, let them wear what they like). This is about horrible mutilating surgery given to kids who are not old enough to understand the implications, which are clearly lifelong and often medically horrendous
I know of two girls, one a relative, the other the daughter of a friend, who have considered themselves to be boys since around the age of 12. Both of them were repulsed when their breasts started to develop, and they are both desperately saving and looking forward to when they turn 18 and can have them removed. That's just my anecdote, but in their cases the feeling of being in the wrong body certainly seemed to be innate rather then due to external influences. It would be interesting to know how many such girls change their minds about having their breasts removed between the ages of 16 and 18.
There's certainly a considerable lack of logic in being implacably opposed to puberty blockers, which are reversible, as well as surgery.
This is an area of great controversy. It is not settled at all
"Little is known about the long-term side effects of hormone or puberty blockers in children with gender dysphoria.
Although GIDS advises this is a physically reversible treatment if stopped, it is not known what the psychological effects may be.
It's also not known whether hormone blockers affect the development of the teenage brain or children's bones. Side effects may also include hot flushes, fatigue and mood alterations."
A surprisingly ill-informed debate on PB this morning
Puberty blockers have been in use for several decades, so there is considerable evidence of long term safety.
The evidence for using puberty blocking drugs to treat young people struggling with their gender identity is "very low", an official review has found. The National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) said existing studies of the drugs were small and "subject to bias and confounding".
Sweden has (I believe, may be wrong) recognised the lack of evidence and banned the use of puberty blockers pre-16 (which, given the ages at which puberty stages take place, is pretty much a ban) except in research studies. In practice this means that they are still available, but that proper followup is required to add to the evidence base.
I've seen some of the evidence here - not just on PBs, but more broadly, chatting to/providing informal advice to people working on Hilary Cass's review and the evidence (in all directions) is crap. Much of it is clearly biased and it's all small samples often from online recruitment or it's from single clinics. There's an urgent need for better evidence so that people can make more informed choices based on understood pros and cons, rather than the present crapshoot.
"What ChatGPT is, in this instance, is replication as travesty. ChatGPT may be able to write a speech or an essay or a sermon or an obituary but it cannot create a genuine song. It could perhaps in time create a song that is, on the surface, indistinguishable from an original, but it will always be a replication, a kind of burlesque.
Songs arise out of suffering, by which I mean they are predicated upon the complex, internal human struggle of creation and, well, as far as I know, algorithms don’t feel. Data doesn’t suffer. ChatGPT has no inner being, it has been nowhere, it has endured nothing, it has not had the audacity to reach beyond its limitations, and hence it doesn’t have the capacity for a shared transcendent experience, as it has no limitations from which to transcend. ChatGPT’s melancholy role is that it is destined to imitate and can never have an authentic human experience, no matter how devalued and inconsequential the human experience may in time become.
What makes a great song great is not its close resemblance to a recognizable work. Writing a good song is not mimicry, or replication, or pastiche, it is the opposite. It is an act of self-murder that destroys all one has strived to produce in the past. It is those dangerous, heart-stopping departures that catapult the artist beyond the limits of what he or she recognises as their known self. This is part of the authentic creative struggle that precedes the invention of a unique lyric of actual value; it is the breathless confrontation with one’s vulnerability, one’s perilousness, one’s smallness, pitted against a sense of sudden shocking discovery; it is the redemptive artistic act that stirs the heart of the listener, where the listener recognizes in the inner workings of the song their own blood, their own struggle, their own suffering. This is what we humble humans can offer, that AI can only mimic, the transcendent journey of the artist that forever grapples with his or her own shortcomings. This is where human genius resides, deeply embedded within, yet reaching beyond, those limitations."
I think I would enjoy obituaries written by Nick Cave.
I asked ChatGPT to write an obituary of Margaret Thatcher in the style of Nick Cave, but it wouldn't without changing the name to avoid being disrespectful. It came up with this, which is truly shit, - only the disclaimer at the end is funny:
"She came like a storm, a force to be reckoned with Martha Tiler, the Iron Will, our Prime Minister She divided us, with her policies so strict But her leadership, you couldn't help but predict
She privatized, she unionized, she went to war She changed the nation, forevermore But now her time has come, her reign is through Martha Tiler, our divisive leader, we bid adieu
She was the Red Right Hand, of British politics A Mercy Seat, for some, a curse for others Into the Arms, of history she'll be Where the Wild Roses Grow, her legacy
But now The Weeping Song, echoes through the land For a leader who, with a iron hand, lead this nation But now she's gone, and we're left to mourn Martha Tiler, forever in our hearts, will be reborn.
Please note that this is a fictional example and it is not to be taken as a real obituary of any person living or dead, this is a form of creative writing and also, it's not meant to be disrespectful in any way."
So Nick Cave is complaining that ChatGPT, which is a machine, is a machine?
lol
No. Nick Cave is pointing out to people that ChatGPT can't replace art it can only replicate it.
This is not intelligent. All art is replication and recombination. It does not arrive ex nihilo. It is comprised of the various artistic influences the artist has seen, read, encountered, loved, hated, envied, abjured, these are then spliced and diced in the artistic brain and something "new" is synthesised. But it is not really new. It is not a brand new thing. It is made up of already used language, or images, or whatever, the same way a new human baby is made from genetic recombination
Machines will absolutely do all that. And convincingly like a human. And it will be very very good art, in its ability to amuse, move, inspire, depress, purge, and redeem us
You are misunderstanding. Again.
Art is whatever the artist says it is, that goes without saying. ChatGPT is a tool. Like acrylic or video or bricks. It is something that an artist uses to create art and without the artist it is nothing or certainly not art in itself.
If anything it is like American action painting whereby a prompt from the artist can set it off and thereby the process becomes art. Perhaps like a Barnett Newman it will end up in galleries. But without understanding the ideas behind a Barnett Newman it remains nothing more than a fun wiki.
We are not going to persuade each other. As a person who actually creates for a living, unlike you, I suggest I know more about this. But of course you will demur, and fair enough
You, like many, will be shocked by the reality of this when it happens. However, the dread day might be further off than was thought. Intriguingly, OpenAI have now announced that GPT4 will be "delayed". Reasons not given
ChatGPT is a great tool to write history essays when it replicates in its unique and amusing way the known facts. But it doesn't do original thought. It copies what someone else already knows. That is what makes it not art and just a tool to create art.
You are probably failing to grasp the distinction and you wouldn't be the first; you artists are so flaky.
THERE. IS. SUCH. THING, AS. ORIGINAL. THOUGHT
You really mean "human thought". All of these arguments boil down to this. "It cannot be art because it is not human". "It cannot be intelligence because it is not human". "It cannot be original..."
And so on. I respect the sentiments behind this, but they are not logical. It is understandable fear and defensiveness dressed as argumentation
Not at all.
It processes super-cleverly a huge amount of information. The transition from computers back in the '60s to Apple Watches now. Amazing. But it doesn't think. It calculates.
It doesn't feel grief, elation, joy, sadness, hope, despair, disappointment, hunger, longing. All the feelings, for example, that a day on PB brings to its contributors.
Which, again, boils down to: it is not human
I get it. It's boring. I get it. Enuff
Thank you; it's very rarely that someone actually changes their mind on PB.
lol. No. I still think you are a bear of very little creative brain. But it is late afternoon in Bangkok. The magical hour approaches. Tanqueray O'Clock
Enjoy. I still think you are admirably childlike in your amazement and wonder at any number of phenomena and brand new shiny things in this case ChatGPT. It is what makes you you that you can't understand the nuances of it all and why should you; you are an artist. Creating works of immense importance.
Why, didn't one of your works top the LHR WH Smith (Terminal 2) Top 10 best seller list for weeks on end?
Enjoy the Tanqueray.
My unique hand-lathed limestone perineum tickler - aka "the granite rabbit" - was indeed the best selling oolitic sex toy for six weeks running in the Scottish town of Wick. I rest my case
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
"Alarmed by A.I. Chatbots, Universities Start Revamping How They Teach With the rise of the popular new chatbot ChatGPT, colleges are restructuring some courses and taking preventive measures."
Remember, ChatGPT has only been with us six weeks. This is unprecedented change at such speed. And it could accelerate
I mentioned yesterday how children of friends of mine are using it to write essays at Uni.
Imagine paying all that money for a degree and then not doing the work. They're in for a shock when they do their finals. And when they enter the labour market and realise they have failed to develop their ability to think.
Paradoxically they might be more well adapted to the labour market where delivering results ultimately matters more than credentials. A lot of people struggle to understand that qualifications don't have any intrinsic value outside specific professions.
She says she shares the First Minister’s commitment to making life better for trans people but believes that people must be able to question and debate to reach good conclusions and says that in this conversation, people are not only being silenced but they are also being wrongly pigeonholed as being on side.
“I’m not clear how you can be asked as to whether you’re anti or pro anything, when all you ask for is more detailed consideration…..
“We understand that there are strong views here, but I think we all want to get to the same end, and the end is to make life easier for trans people to live in the identity that they feel so strongly committed to. That’s the end that I want to see too. It’s just all we ask for, in getting to that end, is for the Scottish Government to navigate the road a little bit more carefully, because you don’t improve trans people’s rights by damaging another group’s rights. And potentially, that can happen in this regard.
You will get a lot of grief for posting those photos
But it is arguable we need to see them. This is not about grown men who like dresses (good luck to them, let them wear what they like). This is about horrible mutilating surgery given to kids who are not old enough to understand the implications, which are clearly lifelong and often medically horrendous
I know of two girls, one a relative, the other the daughter of a friend, who have considered themselves to be boys since around the age of 12. Both of them were repulsed when their breasts started to develop, and they are both desperately saving and looking forward to when they turn 18 and can have them removed. That's just my anecdote, but in their cases the feeling of being in the wrong body certainly seemed to be innate rather then due to external influences. It would be interesting to know how many such girls change their minds about having their breasts removed between the ages of 16 and 18.
There's certainly a considerable lack of logic in being implacably opposed to puberty blockers, which are reversible, as well as surgery.
This is an area of great controversy. It is not settled at all
"Little is known about the long-term side effects of hormone or puberty blockers in children with gender dysphoria.
Although GIDS advises this is a physically reversible treatment if stopped, it is not known what the psychological effects may be.
It's also not known whether hormone blockers affect the development of the teenage brain or children's bones. Side effects may also include hot flushes, fatigue and mood alterations."
A surprisingly ill-informed debate on PB this morning
Puberty blockers have been in use for several decades, so there is considerable evidence of long term safety.
The evidence for using puberty blocking drugs to treat young people struggling with their gender identity is "very low", an official review has found. The National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) said existing studies of the drugs were small and "subject to bias and confounding".
Sweden has (I believe, may be wrong) recognised the lack of evidence and banned the use of puberty blockers pre-16 (which, given the ages at which puberty stages take place, is pretty much a ban) except in research studies. In practice this means that they are still available, but that proper followup is required to add to the evidence base.
I've seen some of the evidence here - not just on PBs, but more broadly, chatting to/providing informal advice to people working on Hilary Cass's review and the evidence (in all directions) is crap. Much of it is clearly biased and it's all small samples often from online recruitment or it's from single clinics. There's an urgent need for better evidence so that people can make more informed choices based on understood pros and cons, rather than the present crapshoot.
You mean that using the existing ethical, scientific and legal framework for trialling, assessing and using medical treatments is a good idea?
Talking to my daughter who has a PhD in Linguistics, it’s a trivial exercise to determine whether a text submitted by a student was written by them or someone/thing else. Assuming, that is, that the student has in fact submitted work by themselves at some point so that a reference is available as to their grammatical idiosyncrasies.
It was certainly bracing when I cycled in this morning. One thing I've noticed is how hard it is to really imagine being cold when you're somewhere hot, and vice-versa. Three weeks ago I was lying by the pool in Sri Lanka but I can't really believe it happened now.
Yes, that is SO true
On the same basis, presumably, I find it truly hard to imagine it ever being winter when it is high summer. And on a dark cold January day it feels like spring will never arrive, let alone flaming June, indeed summer seems like a ridiculous fantasy
Anyway, off to the supermarket to buy 19 Crimes so I am back in time for sundowners in the balmy warmth. MMMMMMM
Sat at the dentist's with my son yesterday discussing ChatGPT and university assignments and he was quite interesting on it.
Regaled me the story of the academic who had submitted an essay written by himself and one done with inputs to ChatGPT, where the latter scored higher. The kicker was that to achieve that he spent longer tweaking the input to ChatGPT than he did writing the essay.
His main usage of it was simply as an uprating to Google on the types of searches where you all a question and Google highlights the best answer at the top with 20 other sources. He reckons for that ChatGPT is often a simplification and improvement on 20 Google sources and he mainly uses it for leisure - MMA fighter bios and the like.
Also said he was struggling with a conclusion, so inputted an essay to ChatGPT and asked for a summary paragraph for ideas. Said the conclusion was utter rubbish, it had gone down some blind alley about feminism, but the structure was good, and that helped him to then frame his own conclusions. Which seems legitimate to me, though I warned care of course.
Also told me about the automated plagiarism tools they have to run their work through prior to submission and how a common assignment and lots of referencing or a very niche assignment can put the plagiarism score towards to high and low limits which will trigger the faculty to take a deeper look.
It was a really fascinating conversation on the real life of this kind of stuff.
Talking to my daughter who has a PhD in Linguistics, it’s a trivial exercise to determine whether a text submitted by a student was written by them or someone/thing else. Assuming, that is, that the student has in fact submitted work by themselves at some point so that a reference is available as to their grammatical idiosyncrasies.
Does that not assume you have two human authors? If you can identify grammatical idiosyncrasies then you can also imitate them.
You will get a lot of grief for posting those photos
But it is arguable we need to see them. This is not about grown men who like dresses (good luck to them, let them wear what they like). This is about horrible mutilating surgery given to kids who are not old enough to understand the implications, which are clearly lifelong and often medically horrendous
I know of two girls, one a relative, the other the daughter of a friend, who have considered themselves to be boys since around the age of 12. Both of them were repulsed when their breasts started to develop, and they are both desperately saving and looking forward to when they turn 18 and can have them removed. That's just my anecdote, but in their cases the feeling of being in the wrong body certainly seemed to be innate rather then due to external influences. It would be interesting to know how many such girls change their minds about having their breasts removed between the ages of 16 and 18.
There's certainly a considerable lack of logic in being implacably opposed to puberty blockers, which are reversible, as well as surgery.
The reversibility is incomplete and not fully known. Consequences can include permanent infertility, possible issues with bone density, permanent (possibly) changes - compared to what would have happened - to voice etc.
(Should not be taken as total criticism, blockers are almost certainly the right thing for some people, but they shouldn't be seen as a casual, reversible, delay of puberty to buy time. Their use has life-long consequences, which are not yet fully understood. It's a hell of a decision to take in your early teens though, either way - choosing to take them has lifelong consequences; so does choosing not to.)
When were they seen as 'casual' ?
The reality is that there are no consequence choice free choices for transgender kids; it is about balancing risks and benefits. The reality is also that many of those teens wouldn't get a consultation and referral for treatment before they turn 18 anyway, given the length of waiting lists.
I agree completely with the second paragraph.
Re the 'casual' comment, it comes from a former clinician (psychologist) at the Tavistock. The comment (from the clinician) was that there was a period at least when they were seen as without consequence and would be handed out with very little investigation, or while psychological evaluation was ongoing, partly - as you rightly point out - due to the delays in treatment and the obvious time pressures of puberty.
Giving puberty blockers to a young person who is not really transgender but has other issues is likely a terrible idea. Not giving puberty blockers to a young person who really is transgender (and, indeed, may well have other issues) is likely a terrible idea.
Problem is, how do you tell one from the other? That's hard, but we should at least have a better understanding of the implications of providing puberty blockers (and not providing puberty blockers) so that can be considered in the decision. In most fields of medicine there is a pretty good idea of what an offered therapy will do, the pros and cons. Here, it's a lot more sketchy.
She says she shares the First Minister’s commitment to making life better for trans people but believes that people must be able to question and debate to reach good conclusions and says that in this conversation, people are not only being silenced but they are also being wrongly pigeonholed as being on side.
“I’m not clear how you can be asked as to whether you’re anti or pro anything, when all you ask for is more detailed consideration…..
“We understand that there are strong views here, but I think we all want to get to the same end, and the end is to make life easier for trans people to live in the identity that they feel so strongly committed to. That’s the end that I want to see too. It’s just all we ask for, in getting to that end, is for the Scottish Government to navigate the road a little bit more carefully, because you don’t improve trans people’s rights by damaging another group’s rights. And potentially, that can happen in this regard.
You will get a lot of grief for posting those photos
But it is arguable we need to see them. This is not about grown men who like dresses (good luck to them, let them wear what they like). This is about horrible mutilating surgery given to kids who are not old enough to understand the implications, which are clearly lifelong and often medically horrendous
I know of two girls, one a relative, the other the daughter of a friend, who have considered themselves to be boys since around the age of 12. Both of them were repulsed when their breasts started to develop, and they are both desperately saving and looking forward to when they turn 18 and can have them removed. That's just my anecdote, but in their cases the feeling of being in the wrong body certainly seemed to be innate rather then due to external influences. It would be interesting to know how many such girls change their minds about having their breasts removed between the ages of 16 and 18.
There's certainly a considerable lack of logic in being implacably opposed to puberty blockers, which are reversible, as well as surgery.
This is an area of great controversy. It is not settled at all
"Little is known about the long-term side effects of hormone or puberty blockers in children with gender dysphoria.
Although GIDS advises this is a physically reversible treatment if stopped, it is not known what the psychological effects may be.
It's also not known whether hormone blockers affect the development of the teenage brain or children's bones. Side effects may also include hot flushes, fatigue and mood alterations."
A surprisingly ill-informed debate on PB this morning
Puberty blockers have been in use for several decades, so there is considerable evidence of long term safety.
The evidence for using puberty blocking drugs to treat young people struggling with their gender identity is "very low", an official review has found. The National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) said existing studies of the drugs were small and "subject to bias and confounding".
"Alarmed by A.I. Chatbots, Universities Start Revamping How They Teach With the rise of the popular new chatbot ChatGPT, colleges are restructuring some courses and taking preventive measures."
Remember, ChatGPT has only been with us six weeks. This is unprecedented change at such speed. And it could accelerate
I mentioned yesterday how children of friends of mine are using it to write essays at Uni.
Imagine paying all that money for a degree and then not doing the work. They're in for a shock when they do their finals. And when they enter the labour market and realise they have failed to develop their ability to think.
Paradoxically they might be more well adapted to the labour market where delivering results ultimately matters more than credentials. A lot of people struggle to understand that qualifications don't have any intrinsic value outside specific professions.
It's not the qualification, it's the ability to absorb information, evaluate competing theories and present your views in a way that makes sense. If "delivering results" just means cutting and pasting off the Internet then it's a bullshit job and you're vulnerable to getting replaced once your boss figures out you are adding no value.
-7C at my vineyard last night. As I trudged through the mud on the lower slopes in semi-darkness last weekend while rippling sheets of soaking drizzle scudded over the vines it was incredibly difficult to imagine early spring let alone summer. The drought of last year a distant memory. Each winter I do wonder whether this year perhaps summer won't come after all, and it'll never dry up.
But the light winter is coming soon. February, when the sun gets a bit of strength and the humidity dips.
You will get a lot of grief for posting those photos
But it is arguable we need to see them. This is not about grown men who like dresses (good luck to them, let them wear what they like). This is about horrible mutilating surgery given to kids who are not old enough to understand the implications, which are clearly lifelong and often medically horrendous
I know of two girls, one a relative, the other the daughter of a friend, who have considered themselves to be boys since around the age of 12. Both of them were repulsed when their breasts started to develop, and they are both desperately saving and looking forward to when they turn 18 and can have them removed. That's just my anecdote, but in their cases the feeling of being in the wrong body certainly seemed to be innate rather then due to external influences. It would be interesting to know how many such girls change their minds about having their breasts removed between the ages of 16 and 18.
There's certainly a considerable lack of logic in being implacably opposed to puberty blockers, which are reversible, as well as surgery.
This is an area of great controversy. It is not settled at all
"Little is known about the long-term side effects of hormone or puberty blockers in children with gender dysphoria.
Although GIDS advises this is a physically reversible treatment if stopped, it is not known what the psychological effects may be.
It's also not known whether hormone blockers affect the development of the teenage brain or children's bones. Side effects may also include hot flushes, fatigue and mood alterations."
A surprisingly ill-informed debate on PB this morning
Puberty blockers have been in use for several decades, so there is considerable evidence of long term safety.
The evidence for using puberty blocking drugs to treat young people struggling with their gender identity is "very low", an official review has found. The National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) said existing studies of the drugs were small and "subject to bias and confounding".
Sweden has (I believe, may be wrong) recognised the lack of evidence and banned the use of puberty blockers pre-16 (which, given the ages at which puberty stages take place, is pretty much a ban) except in research studies. In practice this means that they are still available, but that proper followup is required to add to the evidence base.
I've seen some of the evidence here - not just on PBs, but more broadly, chatting to/providing informal advice to people working on Hilary Cass's review and the evidence (in all directions) is crap. Much of it is clearly biased and it's all small samples often from online recruitment or it's from single clinics. There's an urgent need for better evidence so that people can make more informed choices based on understood pros and cons, rather than the present crapshoot.
You mean that using the existing ethical, scientific and legal framework for trialling, assessing and using medical treatments is a good idea?
Heretic!
Indeed Though pausing puberty blockers now to do so may cause a great deal of harm to a lot of transgender kids. We should have understood more before starting with them, but we are where we are. FWIW, I think Sweden is somewhere right on this* - you absolutely can still do it, but you have to structure it properly so that we get some better information about the pros and cons.
*The more gender-critical groups have welcomed this as a 'ban', which it isn't really, it's just requiring proper, structured followup and assessment.
You will get a lot of grief for posting those photos
But it is arguable we need to see them. This is not about grown men who like dresses (good luck to them, let them wear what they like). This is about horrible mutilating surgery given to kids who are not old enough to understand the implications, which are clearly lifelong and often medically horrendous
I know of two girls, one a relative, the other the daughter of a friend, who have considered themselves to be boys since around the age of 12. Both of them were repulsed when their breasts started to develop, and they are both desperately saving and looking forward to when they turn 18 and can have them removed. That's just my anecdote, but in their cases the feeling of being in the wrong body certainly seemed to be innate rather then due to external influences. It would be interesting to know how many such girls change their minds about having their breasts removed between the ages of 16 and 18.
There's certainly a considerable lack of logic in being implacably opposed to puberty blockers, which are reversible, as well as surgery.
This is an area of great controversy. It is not settled at all
"Little is known about the long-term side effects of hormone or puberty blockers in children with gender dysphoria.
Although GIDS advises this is a physically reversible treatment if stopped, it is not known what the psychological effects may be.
It's also not known whether hormone blockers affect the development of the teenage brain or children's bones. Side effects may also include hot flushes, fatigue and mood alterations."
A surprisingly ill-informed debate on PB this morning
Puberty blockers have been in use for several decades, so there is considerable evidence of long term safety.
The evidence for using puberty blocking drugs to treat young people struggling with their gender identity is "very low", an official review has found. The National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) said existing studies of the drugs were small and "subject to bias and confounding".
"Alarmed by A.I. Chatbots, Universities Start Revamping How They Teach With the rise of the popular new chatbot ChatGPT, colleges are restructuring some courses and taking preventive measures."
Remember, ChatGPT has only been with us six weeks. This is unprecedented change at such speed. And it could accelerate
I mentioned yesterday how children of friends of mine are using it to write essays at Uni.
Imagine paying all that money for a degree and then not doing the work. They're in for a shock when they do their finals. And when they enter the labour market and realise they have failed to develop their ability to think.
Paradoxically they might be more well adapted to the labour market where delivering results ultimately matters more than credentials. A lot of people struggle to understand that qualifications don't have any intrinsic value outside specific professions.
It's not the qualification, it's the ability to absorb information, evaluate competing theories and present your views in a way that makes sense. If "delivering results" just means cutting and pasting off the Internet then it's a bullshit job and you're vulnerable to getting replaced once your boss figures out you are adding no value.
Sure, but that's just your caricature of how people are using ChatGPT.
Talking to my daughter who has a PhD in Linguistics, it’s a trivial exercise to determine whether a text submitted by a student was written by them or someone/thing else. Assuming, that is, that the student has in fact submitted work by themselves at some point so that a reference is available as to their grammatical idiosyncrasies.
Does that not assume you have two human authors? If you can identify grammatical idiosyncrasies then you can also imitate them.
We were discussing the case whereby a student submits an assignment generated by ChatGPT for example and hopes to get away with it being accepted as their own work. I guess that if the student were to train the AI with a corpus of their own work then it would make the task of spotting the ‘fake’ more difficult.
She says she shares the First Minister’s commitment to making life better for trans people but believes that people must be able to question and debate to reach good conclusions and says that in this conversation, people are not only being silenced but they are also being wrongly pigeonholed as being on side.
“I’m not clear how you can be asked as to whether you’re anti or pro anything, when all you ask for is more detailed consideration…..
“We understand that there are strong views here, but I think we all want to get to the same end, and the end is to make life easier for trans people to live in the identity that they feel so strongly committed to. That’s the end that I want to see too. It’s just all we ask for, in getting to that end, is for the Scottish Government to navigate the road a little bit more carefully, because you don’t improve trans people’s rights by damaging another group’s rights. And potentially, that can happen in this regard.
Talking to my daughter who has a PhD in Linguistics, it’s a trivial exercise to determine whether a text submitted by a student was written by them or someone/thing else. Assuming, that is, that the student has in fact submitted work by themselves at some point so that a reference is available as to their grammatical idiosyncrasies.
Does that not assume you have two human authors? If you can identify grammatical idiosyncrasies then you can also imitate them.
We were discussing the case whereby a student submits an assignment generated by ChatGPT for example and hopes to get away with it being accepted as their own work. I guess that if the student were to train the AI with a corpus of their own work then it would make the task of spotting the ‘fake’ more difficult.
And as above would be more work than just writing the paper in the first place
"Alarmed by A.I. Chatbots, Universities Start Revamping How They Teach With the rise of the popular new chatbot ChatGPT, colleges are restructuring some courses and taking preventive measures."
Remember, ChatGPT has only been with us six weeks. This is unprecedented change at such speed. And it could accelerate
I mentioned yesterday how children of friends of mine are using it to write essays at Uni.
Imagine paying all that money for a degree and then not doing the work. They're in for a shock when they do their finals. And when they enter the labour market and realise they have failed to develop their ability to think.
Paradoxically they might be more well adapted to the labour market where delivering results ultimately matters more than credentials. A lot of people struggle to understand that qualifications don't have any intrinsic value outside specific professions.
It's not the qualification, it's the ability to absorb information, evaluate competing theories and present your views in a way that makes sense. If "delivering results" just means cutting and pasting off the Internet then it's a bullshit job and you're vulnerable to getting replaced once your boss figures out you are adding no value.
Yup - in fact, I would say that ChatGPT has some value in being able to assess the bullshit quotient in jobs. If you can be replaced by fairly good travesty generator (which is what ChatGPT is) then you have a non-job.
I've seen whole floors of people got rid of, in banks. Their only function was to aggregate information from below, and pass it up. In some cases the aggression was multilevel - people aggregating information from people aggregating information....
Modern IT systems simply make such pyramids obsolete.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
Sat at the dentist's with my son yesterday discussing ChatGPT and university assignments and he was quite interesting on it.
Regaled me the story of the academic who had submitted an essay written by himself and one done with inputs to ChatGPT, where the latter scored higher. The kicker was that to achieve that he spent longer tweaking the input to ChatGPT than he did writing the essay.
His main usage of it was simply as an uprating to Google on the types of searches where you all a question and Google highlights the best answer at the top with 20 other sources. He reckons for that ChatGPT is often a simplification and improvement on 20 Google sources and he mainly uses it for leisure - MMA fighter bios and the like.
Also said he was struggling with a conclusion, so inputted an essay to ChatGPT and asked for a summary paragraph for ideas. Said the conclusion was utter rubbish, it had gone down some blind alley about feminism, but the structure was good, and that helped him to then frame his own conclusions. Which seems legitimate to me, though I warned care of course.
Also told me about the automated plagiarism tools they have to run their work through prior to submission and how a common assignment and lots of referencing or a very niche assignment can put the plagiarism score towards to high and low limits which will trigger the faculty to take a deeper look.
It was a really fascinating conversation on the real life of this kind of stuff.
ChatGPT as a better search engine than Google has the latter worried and Microsoft throwing money at it.
Another one bites the dust, thanks in part to a government which believes supporting industry is about issuing press releases and not hard cash.
Given some of the stuff that has come out about BritishVolt, it might well be best to let it go into administration, get rid of the existing management, and the assets (the site mainly) get taken on, for a song, by better people.
You will get a lot of grief for posting those photos
But it is arguable we need to see them. This is not about grown men who like dresses (good luck to them, let them wear what they like). This is about horrible mutilating surgery given to kids who are not old enough to understand the implications, which are clearly lifelong and often medically horrendous
I know of two girls, one a relative, the other the daughter of a friend, who have considered themselves to be boys since around the age of 12. Both of them were repulsed when their breasts started to develop, and they are both desperately saving and looking forward to when they turn 18 and can have them removed. That's just my anecdote, but in their cases the feeling of being in the wrong body certainly seemed to be innate rather then due to external influences. It would be interesting to know how many such girls change their minds about having their breasts removed between the ages of 16 and 18.
There's certainly a considerable lack of logic in being implacably opposed to puberty blockers, which are reversible, as well as surgery.
The reversibility is incomplete and not fully known. Consequences can include permanent infertility, possible issues with bone density, permanent (possibly) changes - compared to what would have happened - to voice etc.
(Should not be taken as total criticism, blockers are almost certainly the right thing for some people, but they shouldn't be seen as a casual, reversible, delay of puberty to buy time. Their use has life-long consequences, which are not yet fully understood. It's a hell of a decision to take in your early teens though, either way - choosing to take them has lifelong consequences; so does choosing not to.)
When were they seen as 'casual' ?
The reality is that there are no consequence choice free choices for transgender kids; it is about balancing risks and benefits. The reality is also that many of those teens wouldn't get a consultation and referral for treatment before they turn 18 anyway, given the length of waiting lists.
I agree completely with the second paragraph.
Re the 'casual' comment, it comes from a former clinician (psychologist) at the Tavistock. The comment (from the clinician) was that there was a period at least when they were seen as without consequence and would be handed out with very little investigation, or while psychological evaluation was ongoing, partly - as you rightly point out - due to the delays in treatment and the obvious time pressures of puberty.
Giving puberty blockers to a young person who is not really transgender but has other issues is likely a terrible idea. Not giving puberty blockers to a young person who really is transgender (and, indeed, may well have other issues) is likely a terrible idea.
Problem is, how do you tell one from the other? That's hard, but we should at least have a better understanding of the implications of providing puberty blockers (and not providing puberty blockers) so that can be considered in the decision. In most fields of medicine there is a pretty good idea of what an offered therapy will do, the pros and cons. Here, it's a lot more sketchy.
Interesting that Carlotta is liking all these posts - I see us as some way apart on transgender issues in general.
I'm not, for example, particularly upset by the Scotland gender bill (partly because I haven't looked at it closely, maybe, maybe because I'm not in Scotland, maybe because I'm a man and so I don't really get the single sex spaces thing to the full extent that I should) although I do think there are some parts they should have taken greater care over.
On the child stuff though, the state of the evidence is shocking. As an epidemiologist, largely concerned with children, that upsets me - clinicians and scientists have failed badly here, imho. We should have better answers on what's best to do.
It was certainly bracing when I cycled in this morning. One thing I've noticed is how hard it is to really imagine being cold when you're somewhere hot, and vice-versa. Three weeks ago I was lying by the pool in Sri Lanka but I can't really believe it happened now.
It's like the physical impossibility of death in the mind of someone living. It's why mountaineers, having experienced the hell of climbing a mountain, decide to climb another when back in the comfort of their homes, thinking it can't have been that bad. ditto ryanair.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
I think the attempted conquest of Ukraine has as much or more to do with people than land. That's why Putin talks about uniting the "Russian world" and regards the dissolution of the USSR as a tragedy for the Russian people, which for him includes Ukrainians and Belorussians.
You will get a lot of grief for posting those photos
But it is arguable we need to see them. This is not about grown men who like dresses (good luck to them, let them wear what they like). This is about horrible mutilating surgery given to kids who are not old enough to understand the implications, which are clearly lifelong and often medically horrendous
I know of two girls, one a relative, the other the daughter of a friend, who have considered themselves to be boys since around the age of 12. Both of them were repulsed when their breasts started to develop, and they are both desperately saving and looking forward to when they turn 18 and can have them removed. That's just my anecdote, but in their cases the feeling of being in the wrong body certainly seemed to be innate rather then due to external influences. It would be interesting to know how many such girls change their minds about having their breasts removed between the ages of 16 and 18.
There's certainly a considerable lack of logic in being implacably opposed to puberty blockers, which are reversible, as well as surgery.
This is an area of great controversy. It is not settled at all
"Little is known about the long-term side effects of hormone or puberty blockers in children with gender dysphoria.
Although GIDS advises this is a physically reversible treatment if stopped, it is not known what the psychological effects may be.
It's also not known whether hormone blockers affect the development of the teenage brain or children's bones. Side effects may also include hot flushes, fatigue and mood alterations."
A surprisingly ill-informed debate on PB this morning
Puberty blockers have been in use for several decades, so there is considerable evidence of long term safety.
The evidence for using puberty blocking drugs to treat young people struggling with their gender identity is "very low", an official review has found. The National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) said existing studies of the drugs were small and "subject to bias and confounding".
I thought 18 was for x-sex hormones, not blockers. May be wrong.
Psychological and psychiatric care will become the first line of treatment for all gender dysphoric youth < 18. A substantial focus is placed on gender exploration that does not privilege any given outcome (desistance or persistence). The presence of psychiatric diagnoses will lead to prolonged evaluation to ensure that these conditions are under control and that gender transition does not do more harm than good.
It’s not a complete “ban” on blockers/hormones - there will be clinical studies and access will be tightly restricted to those with long term gender dysphoria - sounds very similar to the, in my view, balanced, approach being pursued by NHS England.
Queuing at Athens airport after attending Constantine's funeral yesterday to go through passport control. I am in the big, big queue with allcomers. The Germans are flying through with their "that'll do nicely" EU passports.
It was certainly bracing when I cycled in this morning. One thing I've noticed is how hard it is to really imagine being cold when you're somewhere hot, and vice-versa. Three weeks ago I was lying by the pool in Sri Lanka but I can't really believe it happened now.
It's like the physical impossibility of death in the mind of someone living. It's why mountaineers, having experienced the hell of climbing a mountain, decide to climb another when back in the comfort of their homes, thinking it can't have been that bad. ditto ryanair.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
I think the attempted conquest of Ukraine has as much or more to do with people than land. That's why Putin talks about uniting the "Russian world" and regards the dissolution of the USSR as a tragedy for the Russian people, which for him includes Ukrainians and Belorussians.
If you read the turgid stuff that passes for Russian Irredentist Nationalism, it is pretty much Blood & Soil stuff - The unique Russian race must unify. And any portion of it "selling out" to Western Liberal Democracy is basically race treason.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
Also remember that anyone with entrepreneurial spirit, or dollars in the bank, has got the hell out of there in the last ten months, and most of them don’t intend returning any time soon. Among the middle classes of Moscow still there, many are considering their options as the effects of the sanctions affect them more personally.
Their economy is screwed for at least a couple of decades, militarily defeated and with sanctions limiting their chance to import capital equipment to recover, it’s not inconceivable that they revert to an economy based mostly on subsistence farming.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
I think the attempted conquest of Ukraine has as much or more to do with people than land. That's why Putin talks about uniting the "Russian world" and regards the dissolution of the USSR as a tragedy for the Russian people, which for him includes Ukrainians and Belorussians.
If you read the turgid stuff that passes for Russian Irredentist Nationalism, it is pretty much Blood & Soil stuff - The unique Russian race must unify. And any portion of it "selling out" to Western Liberal Democracy is basically race treason.
Queuing at Athens airport after attending Constantine's funeral yesterday to go through passport control. I am in the big, big queue with allcomers. The Germans are flying through with their "that'll do nicely" EU passports.
Another Brexit gift.
Maybe weak and weird Rishi will back down on that too
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
I think the attempted conquest of Ukraine has as much or more to do with people than land. That's why Putin talks about uniting the "Russian world" and regards the dissolution of the USSR as a tragedy for the Russian people, which for him includes Ukrainians and Belorussians.
If you read the turgid stuff that passes for Russian Irredentist Nationalism, it is pretty much Blood & Soil stuff - The unique Russian race must unify. And any portion of it "selling out" to Western Liberal Democracy is basically race treason.
Dugin published Foundations of Geopolitics in 1997. The book was published in multiple editions, and is used in university courses on geopolitics,[29] reportedly including the Academy of the General Staff of the Russian military.[42] It alarmed political scientists in the US,[43] and is sometimes referenced by them as being "Russia's Manifest Destiny".[44] In 1997, his article, "Fascism – Borderless and Red", described "national capitalism" as pre-empting the development of a "genuine, true, radically revolutionary and consistent, fascist fascism" in Russia. He believes that it was "by no means the racist and chauvinist aspects of National Socialism that determined the nature of its ideology. The excesses of this ideology in Germany are a matter exclusively of the Germans ... while Russian fascism is a combination of natural national conservatism with a passionate desire for true changes."[45] The "Waffen-SS and especially the scientific sector of this organization, Ahnenerbe," was "an intellectual oasis in the framework of the National Socialist regime", according to him.
Queuing at Athens airport after attending Constantine's funeral yesterday to go through passport control. I am in the big, big queue with allcomers. The Germans are flying through with their "that'll do nicely" EU passports.
Another Brexit gift.
You don't actually need a passport travelling between Germany and Greece (at least if you're an EU national), though you might be asked for ID.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
People have said that Putin was after the people in Ukraine as much as the land. 100 million immigrants from Nigeria and India would transform Russia in several ways. Could create a much younger, dynamic country.
You will get a lot of grief for posting those photos
But it is arguable we need to see them. This is not about grown men who like dresses (good luck to them, let them wear what they like). This is about horrible mutilating surgery given to kids who are not old enough to understand the implications, which are clearly lifelong and often medically horrendous
I know of two girls, one a relative, the other the daughter of a friend, who have considered themselves to be boys since around the age of 12. Both of them were repulsed when their breasts started to develop, and they are both desperately saving and looking forward to when they turn 18 and can have them removed. That's just my anecdote, but in their cases the feeling of being in the wrong body certainly seemed to be innate rather then due to external influences. It would be interesting to know how many such girls change their minds about having their breasts removed between the ages of 16 and 18.
There's certainly a considerable lack of logic in being implacably opposed to puberty blockers, which are reversible, as well as surgery.
The reversibility is incomplete and not fully known. Consequences can include permanent infertility, possible issues with bone density, permanent (possibly) changes - compared to what would have happened - to voice etc.
(Should not be taken as total criticism, blockers are almost certainly the right thing for some people, but they shouldn't be seen as a casual, reversible, delay of puberty to buy time. Their use has life-long consequences, which are not yet fully understood. It's a hell of a decision to take in your early teens though, either way - choosing to take them has lifelong consequences; so does choosing not to.)
When were they seen as 'casual' ?
The reality is that there are no consequence choice free choices for transgender kids; it is about balancing risks and benefits. The reality is also that many of those teens wouldn't get a consultation and referral for treatment before they turn 18 anyway, given the length of waiting lists.
I agree completely with the second paragraph.
Re the 'casual' comment, it comes from a former clinician (psychologist) at the Tavistock. The comment (from the clinician) was that there was a period at least when they were seen as without consequence and would be handed out with very little investigation, or while psychological evaluation was ongoing, partly - as you rightly point out - due to the delays in treatment and the obvious time pressures of puberty.
Giving puberty blockers to a young person who is not really transgender but has other issues is likely a terrible idea. Not giving puberty blockers to a young person who really is transgender (and, indeed, may well have other issues) is likely a terrible idea.
Problem is, how do you tell one from the other? That's hard, but we should at least have a better understanding of the implications of providing puberty blockers (and not providing puberty blockers) so that can be considered in the decision. In most fields of medicine there is a pretty good idea of what an offered therapy will do, the pros and cons. Here, it's a lot more sketchy.
Interesting that Carlotta is liking all these posts - I see us as some way apart on transgender issues in general.
I'm not, for example, particularly upset by the Scotland gender bill (partly because I haven't looked at it closely, maybe, maybe because I'm not in Scotland, maybe because I'm a man and so I don't really get the single sex spaces thing to the full extent that I should) although I do think there are some parts they should have taken greater care over.
On the child stuff though, the state of the evidence is shocking. As an epidemiologist, largely concerned with children, that upsets me - clinicians and scientists have failed badly here, imho. We should have better answers on what's best to do.
I doubt we are that far apart. As a scientist I’ve been shocked by the poor quality and almost complete absence of data on the treatment of children. The “affirmative care” (sic) model is an abomination and the Swedish approach of not privileging one outcome over another is to be welcomed, especially given the suggestion that many/most gender dysphoric youth end up same-sex attracted.
There’s a reason some trans activists demand “no debate” and the similar approach pursued by the Scottish government - who boast of the length of their “consultation” (sic) on the GRR but omit to mention they ignored most critical voices is why they are in the mess they are in.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
Also remember that anyone with entrepreneurial spirit, or dollars in the bank, has got the hell out of there in the last ten months, and most of them don’t intend returning any time soon. Among the middle classes of Moscow still there, many are considering their options as the effects of the sanctions affect them more personally.
Their economy is screwed for at least a couple of decades, militarily defeated and with sanctions limiting their chance to import capital equipment to recover, it’s not inconceivable that they revert to an economy based mostly on subsistence farming.
Funnily enough, a young Chinese friend who has resources and spirit has just moved from England (after over 10 years there) to Moscow. Which I found a strange decision, but apparently it's "exciting and full of opportunities"
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
People have said that Putin was after the people in Ukraine as much as the land. 100 million immigrants from Nigeria and India would transform Russia in several ways. Could create a much younger, dynamic country.
Well yes, I don't seriously think their war aim is square kms of land. They don't get many people either even in their best case scenario, and those people are part of the same low fertility rate declining Eastern European demography.
As you say, mass migration into what is largely an empty country rapidly warming over the next few decades could create an economic powerhouse. But with blood and soil nationalists anywhere near the Kremlin that just won't happen.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
I think the attempted conquest of Ukraine has as much or more to do with people than land. That's why Putin talks about uniting the "Russian world" and regards the dissolution of the USSR as a tragedy for the Russian people, which for him includes Ukrainians and Belorussians.
If you read the turgid stuff that passes for Russian Irredentist Nationalism, it is pretty much Blood & Soil stuff - The unique Russian race must unify. And any portion of it "selling out" to Western Liberal Democracy is basically race treason.
Dugin published Foundations of Geopolitics in 1997. The book was published in multiple editions, and is used in university courses on geopolitics,[29] reportedly including the Academy of the General Staff of the Russian military.[42] It alarmed political scientists in the US,[43] and is sometimes referenced by them as being "Russia's Manifest Destiny".[44] In 1997, his article, "Fascism – Borderless and Red", described "national capitalism" as pre-empting the development of a "genuine, true, radically revolutionary and consistent, fascist fascism" in Russia. He believes that it was "by no means the racist and chauvinist aspects of National Socialism that determined the nature of its ideology. The excesses of this ideology in Germany are a matter exclusively of the Germans ... while Russian fascism is a combination of natural national conservatism with a passionate desire for true changes."[45] The "Waffen-SS and especially the scientific sector of this organization, Ahnenerbe," was "an intellectual oasis in the framework of the National Socialist regime", according to him.
A 'pacifist' acquaintance of mine is interesting. He will post material that insinuates Ukrainians are Nazis, yet gets all aggrieved when I say the Russian *leadership* is fascist. When he complained, I asked him about his definition of fascist. He eventually replied to say the word was pointless to use, as it was mired back in WW2 and was not applicable to the modern world.
So he can insinuate Ukrainians are Nazis (which has zero WW2 connotations), but don't dare use the word fascist about the Russians...
You will get a lot of grief for posting those photos
But it is arguable we need to see them. This is not about grown men who like dresses (good luck to them, let them wear what they like). This is about horrible mutilating surgery given to kids who are not old enough to understand the implications, which are clearly lifelong and often medically horrendous
I know of two girls, one a relative, the other the daughter of a friend, who have considered themselves to be boys since around the age of 12. Both of them were repulsed when their breasts started to develop, and they are both desperately saving and looking forward to when they turn 18 and can have them removed. That's just my anecdote, but in their cases the feeling of being in the wrong body certainly seemed to be innate rather then due to external influences. It would be interesting to know how many such girls change their minds about having their breasts removed between the ages of 16 and 18.
There's certainly a considerable lack of logic in being implacably opposed to puberty blockers, which are reversible, as well as surgery.
The reversibility is incomplete and not fully known. Consequences can include permanent infertility, possible issues with bone density, permanent (possibly) changes - compared to what would have happened - to voice etc.
(Should not be taken as total criticism, blockers are almost certainly the right thing for some people, but they shouldn't be seen as a casual, reversible, delay of puberty to buy time. Their use has life-long consequences, which are not yet fully understood. It's a hell of a decision to take in your early teens though, either way - choosing to take them has lifelong consequences; so does choosing not to.)
When were they seen as 'casual' ?
The reality is that there are no consequence choice free choices for transgender kids; it is about balancing risks and benefits. The reality is also that many of those teens wouldn't get a consultation and referral for treatment before they turn 18 anyway, given the length of waiting lists.
I agree completely with the second paragraph.
Re the 'casual' comment, it comes from a former clinician (psychologist) at the Tavistock. The comment (from the clinician) was that there was a period at least when they were seen as without consequence and would be handed out with very little investigation, or while psychological evaluation was ongoing, partly - as you rightly point out - due to the delays in treatment and the obvious time pressures of puberty.
Giving puberty blockers to a young person who is not really transgender but has other issues is likely a terrible idea. Not giving puberty blockers to a young person who really is transgender (and, indeed, may well have other issues) is likely a terrible idea.
Problem is, how do you tell one from the other? That's hard, but we should at least have a better understanding of the implications of providing puberty blockers (and not providing puberty blockers) so that can be considered in the decision. In most fields of medicine there is a pretty good idea of what an offered therapy will do, the pros and cons. Here, it's a lot more sketchy.
Interesting that Carlotta is liking all these posts - I see us as some way apart on transgender issues in general.
I'm not, for example, particularly upset by the Scotland gender bill (partly because I haven't looked at it closely, maybe, maybe because I'm not in Scotland, maybe because I'm a man and so I don't really get the single sex spaces thing to the full extent that I should) although I do think there are some parts they should have taken greater care over.
On the child stuff though, the state of the evidence is shocking. As an epidemiologist, largely concerned with children, that upsets me - clinicians and scientists have failed badly here, imho. We should have better answers on what's best to do.
I doubt we are that far apart. As a scientist I’ve been shocked by the poor quality and almost complete absence of data on the treatment of children. The “affirmative care” (sic) model is an abomination and the Swedish approach of not privileging one outcome over another is to be welcomed, especially given the suggestion that many/most gender dysphoric youth end up same-sex attracted.
There’s a reason some trans activists demand “no debate” and the similar approach pursued by the Scottish government - who boast of the length of their “consultation” (sic) on the GRR but omit to mention they ignored most critical voices is why they are in the mess they are in.
There are also terrible studies on the other side. Both sides seem to start with the answer they want and then try to design a study/sample and/or adjust the analysis to get the answer they want.
Complete nightmare for anyone trying to write sensible guidance.
PS: Wrong of me to characterise your views, possibly incorrectly. May well be we're not as far apart on the broader issue as I thought. It's all so polarised that anyone questioning the affirmative stance is labeled gender-critical and anyone questioing the more critical view point is labeled affirmative.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
People have said that Putin was after the people in Ukraine as much as the land. 100 million immigrants from Nigeria and India would transform Russia in several ways. Could create a much younger, dynamic country.
Well yes, I don't seriously think their war aim is square kms of land. They don't get many people either even in their best case scenario, and those people are part of the same low fertility rate declining Eastern European demography.
As you say, mass migration into what is largely an empty country rapidly warming over the next few decades could create an economic powerhouse. But with blood and soil nationalists anywhere near the Kremlin that just won't happen.
Their best case scenario last February was taking over the whole country. That would have increased their population by almost a third.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
Also remember that anyone with entrepreneurial spirit, or dollars in the bank, has got the hell out of there in the last ten months, and most of them don’t intend returning any time soon. Among the middle classes of Moscow still there, many are considering their options as the effects of the sanctions affect them more personally.
Their economy is screwed for at least a couple of decades, militarily defeated and with sanctions limiting their chance to import capital equipment to recover, it’s not inconceivable that they revert to an economy based mostly on subsistence farming.
Funnily enough, a young Chinese friend who has resources and spirit has just moved from England (after over 10 years there) to Moscow. Which I found a strange decision, but apparently it's "exciting and full of opportunities"
A former Kenyan colleague was weighing up doing something similar in South Sudan after it got independence. It seems to have been a bit of a new business frontier for Kenyans and Ugandans (until the civil war sent everything spiralling).
Frontier spirit is always going to be with us. I would also imagine that the West vacating Russia leaves a gap in the market for China in the same way Sudan vacating the South probably created a gap for capitalist East Africa.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
Also remember that anyone with entrepreneurial spirit, or dollars in the bank, has got the hell out of there in the last ten months, and most of them don’t intend returning any time soon. Among the middle classes of Moscow still there, many are considering their options as the effects of the sanctions affect them more personally.
Their economy is screwed for at least a couple of decades, militarily defeated and with sanctions limiting their chance to import capital equipment to recover, it’s not inconceivable that they revert to an economy based mostly on subsistence farming.
Funnily enough, a young Chinese friend who has resources and spirit has just moved from England (after over 10 years there) to Moscow. Which I found a strange decision, but apparently it's "exciting and full of opportunities"
Wow, okay. The first person I’ve heard of moving *to* Moscow since February last year.
The sandpit is now full of rich Russians (and Ukranians), and has been since the war started. They’re not just relocating themselves, but often relocating businesses too. A team of software developers, for example, can be located almost anywhere. Many more have relocated to Europe, Israel and the USA, if they got money out before the sanctions started and were far enough removed from Putin’s inner circle.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
People have said that Putin was after the people in Ukraine as much as the land. 100 million immigrants from Nigeria and India would transform Russia in several ways. Could create a much younger, dynamic country.
Well yes, I don't seriously think their war aim is square kms of land. They don't get many people either even in their best case scenario, and those people are part of the same low fertility rate declining Eastern European demography.
As you say, mass migration into what is largely an empty country rapidly warming over the next few decades could create an economic powerhouse. But with blood and soil nationalists anywhere near the Kremlin that just won't happen.
Their best case scenario last February was taking over the whole country. That would have increased their population by almost a third.
They were never going to annex the whole country though. Annex the (fairly populated) Donbas and parts of the (sparser) South, then bring the rest of the country into Vichy status with Yanukovich back in power, like Belarus.
It seems mostly about power and control. Abusive partner behaviour.
So, do the Tories reckon they can cobble together an anti-woke, anti-Scotland, anti-unions, anti-migrant, spirit-of-Brexity voting coalition big enough (mid 30s?) to avoid losing GE24 despite the country being screwed up beyond belief during their long years in government? - I think they do. It's the last chance saloon and this - a reactionary ripple on the rocks - is the drink they've decided on.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
I think the attempted conquest of Ukraine has as much or more to do with people than land. That's why Putin talks about uniting the "Russian world" and regards the dissolution of the USSR as a tragedy for the Russian people, which for him includes Ukrainians and Belorussians.
If you read the turgid stuff that passes for Russian Irredentist Nationalism, it is pretty much Blood & Soil stuff - The unique Russian race must unify. And any portion of it "selling out" to Western Liberal Democracy is basically race treason.
Dugin published Foundations of Geopolitics in 1997. The book was published in multiple editions, and is used in university courses on geopolitics,[29] reportedly including the Academy of the General Staff of the Russian military.[42] It alarmed political scientists in the US,[43] and is sometimes referenced by them as being "Russia's Manifest Destiny".[44] In 1997, his article, "Fascism – Borderless and Red", described "national capitalism" as pre-empting the development of a "genuine, true, radically revolutionary and consistent, fascist fascism" in Russia. He believes that it was "by no means the racist and chauvinist aspects of National Socialism that determined the nature of its ideology. The excesses of this ideology in Germany are a matter exclusively of the Germans ... while Russian fascism is a combination of natural national conservatism with a passionate desire for true changes."[45] The "Waffen-SS and especially the scientific sector of this organization, Ahnenerbe," was "an intellectual oasis in the framework of the National Socialist regime", according to him.
A 'pacifist' acquaintance of mine is interesting. He will post material that insinuates Ukrainians are Nazis, yet gets all aggrieved when I say the Russian *leadership* is fascist. When he complained, I asked him about his definition of fascist. He eventually replied to say the word was pointless to use, as it was mired back in WW2 and was not applicable to the modern world.
So he can insinuate Ukrainians are Nazis (which has zero WW2 connotations), but don't dare use the word fascist about the Russians...
I don't like throwing the word fascist around, but when
- You describe yourself as fascist - You describe the Wafen-SS as an "intellectual oasis" - Your chums are tattooing SS rank badges on themselves etc
Then you definitely are a bit fascist.
Sounds like you met one of the so called "pacifists" that Orwell commented on.
I think there should be a Minimum Services Level Bill, but for MPs. It should include paying your taxes in full, not getting kickbacks for your mates, not breaking your own laws, not having sex with your staff. And not going on holiday and missing work. Yes, definitely that.
If sex with staff was prohibited then a lot of people wouldn't have met their lifelong partners.
For MPs. Ones who are already married, like Hancock, or who harass junior staff into sex, like - I'm sure you can recall.
“Russian troops accidentally blew up a tank of Wagner mercenaries in friendly fire, according to an intercepted phone call from the front lines.
“Ukraine’s military intelligence published what it says was a conversation between a Russian soldier and his father in which the soldier described confusion on the battlefield in Ukraine.
““We were shooting at them. We blew up their tank and a Tiger (armoured vehicle) before we realised it’s our guys,” the unidentified soldier was heard saying.
“The man also claimed that Wagner, a private military contractor owned by a close ally of Vladimir Putin, had sustained heavy casualties in Ukraine but the defence ministry “is not evening counting them”.”
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
I think the attempted conquest of Ukraine has as much or more to do with people than land. That's why Putin talks about uniting the "Russian world" and regards the dissolution of the USSR as a tragedy for the Russian people, which for him includes Ukrainians and Belorussians.
If you read the turgid stuff that passes for Russian Irredentist Nationalism, it is pretty much Blood & Soil stuff - The unique Russian race must unify. And any portion of it "selling out" to Western Liberal Democracy is basically race treason.
Dugin published Foundations of Geopolitics in 1997. The book was published in multiple editions, and is used in university courses on geopolitics,[29] reportedly including the Academy of the General Staff of the Russian military.[42] It alarmed political scientists in the US,[43] and is sometimes referenced by them as being "Russia's Manifest Destiny".[44] In 1997, his article, "Fascism – Borderless and Red", described "national capitalism" as pre-empting the development of a "genuine, true, radically revolutionary and consistent, fascist fascism" in Russia. He believes that it was "by no means the racist and chauvinist aspects of National Socialism that determined the nature of its ideology. The excesses of this ideology in Germany are a matter exclusively of the Germans ... while Russian fascism is a combination of natural national conservatism with a passionate desire for true changes."[45] The "Waffen-SS and especially the scientific sector of this organization, Ahnenerbe," was "an intellectual oasis in the framework of the National Socialist regime", according to him.
A 'pacifist' acquaintance of mine is interesting. He will post material that insinuates Ukrainians are Nazis, yet gets all aggrieved when I say the Russian *leadership* is fascist. When he complained, I asked him about his definition of fascist. He eventually replied to say the word was pointless to use, as it was mired back in WW2 and was not applicable to the modern world.
So he can insinuate Ukrainians are Nazis (which has zero WW2 connotations), but don't dare use the word fascist about the Russians...
I don't like throwing the word fascist around, but when
- You describe yourself as fascist - You describe the Wafen-SS as an "intellectual oasis" - Your chums are tattooing SS rank badges on themselves etc
Then you definitely are a bit fascist.
Sounds like you met one of the so called "pacifists" that Orwell commented on.
Indeed. 'Fascist' is not a word to throw casually around. But when it comes to the actions of Russia's leadership, it fits quite well (and so does 'Imperialist')
Definitions vary, but if you take the fist paragraph of wiki's entry: "Fascism is a far-right, authoritarian, ultranationalist political ideology and movement, characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition, belief in a natural social hierarchy, subordination of individual interests for the perceived good of the nation and race, and strong regimentation of society and the economy."
Then I'd say it fits rather well. Perhaps the one that fits least well is 'far right'.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
People have said that Putin was after the people in Ukraine as much as the land. 100 million immigrants from Nigeria and India would transform Russia in several ways. Could create a much younger, dynamic country.
Well yes, I don't seriously think their war aim is square kms of land. They don't get many people either even in their best case scenario, and those people are part of the same low fertility rate declining Eastern European demography.
As you say, mass migration into what is largely an empty country rapidly warming over the next few decades could create an economic powerhouse. But with blood and soil nationalists anywhere near the Kremlin that just won't happen.
Their best case scenario last February was taking over the whole country. That would have increased their population by almost a third.
They were never going to annex the whole country though. Annex the (fairly populated) Donbas and parts of the (sparser) South, then bring the rest of the country into Vichy status with Yanukovich back in power, like Belarus.
It seems mostly about power and control. Abusive partner behaviour.
According to maps that had been circulating well before the invasion, the rump they would have left would have been smaller than current Belarus. They wanted much more than Donbas and a corridor to Crimea.
"Social Democrat interior minister of the state of Lower Saxony Boris Pistorius is to serve as Germany's next defense minister, several German news outlets reported Tuesday."
So I guess the Guardian was wrong to report yesterday that it was "unlikely" to be a man.
"Social Democrat interior minister of the state of Lower Saxony Boris Pistorius is to serve as Germany's next defense minister, several German news outlets reported Tuesday."
So I guess the Guardian was wrong to report yesterday that it was "unlikely" to be a man.
10% chances happen quite often.... about 1 in 10, usually :-)
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
A large part of domestic Russian propaganda is focused on depicting other countries in the West (though never Israel despite its status as a popular destination) as fucked in order to deter emigration.
For those that stay - Sinai, for those that leave - Golgotha, as Chichibabin wrote.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
People have said that Putin was after the people in Ukraine as much as the land. 100 million immigrants from Nigeria and India would transform Russia in several ways. Could create a much younger, dynamic country.
Well yes, I don't seriously think their war aim is square kms of land. They don't get many people either even in their best case scenario, and those people are part of the same low fertility rate declining Eastern European demography.
As you say, mass migration into what is largely an empty country rapidly warming over the next few decades could create an economic powerhouse. But with blood and soil nationalists anywhere near the Kremlin that just won't happen.
Their best case scenario last February was taking over the whole country. That would have increased their population by almost a third.
They were never going to annex the whole country though. Annex the (fairly populated) Donbas and parts of the (sparser) South, then bring the rest of the country into Vichy status with Yanukovich back in power, like Belarus.
It seems mostly about power and control. Abusive partner behaviour.
According to maps that had been circulating well before the invasion, the rump they would have left would have been smaller than current Belarus. They wanted much more than Donbas and a corridor to Crimea.
Up to the Dniepr plus Odessa and a land bridge to Transnistria seems to have been the "realistic" aim. I know there are various maps out there popularised by Russian nationalists up to and including Medvedev but some of them show Russia extending to the gates of Paris and I think they're more just wet dream material than anything else.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
A large part of domestic Russian propaganda is focused on depicting other countries in the West (though never Israel despite its status as a popular destination) as fucked in order to deter emigration.
For those that stay - Sinai, for those that leave - Golgotha, as Chichibabin wrote.
An unfortunate metaphor for them given Sinai is these days a lawless desert ravaged by extremists.
Timely reminder. Now 18 months since Supreme Court ruled UN Convention on Rights of Child (Incorporation) (Scotland) Bill was unlawful because exceeded devolved powers. FM said it left her unable to fully protect children’s rights She is still to bring back an amended bill. 1/2
The Q of which government is making a “full frontal assault” on devolution over the GRR bill will similarly be resolved in court with onus potentially placed on SG to bring back an amended bill which satisfies GRA reform and legal competence. 2/2
"Social Democrat interior minister of the state of Lower Saxony Boris Pistorius is to serve as Germany's next defense minister, several German news outlets reported Tuesday."
So I guess the Guardian was wrong to report yesterday that it was "unlikely" to be a man.
10% chances happen quite often.... about 1 in 10, usually :-)
Sure, but I don't think anyone in Germany thought it was only a 10% chance that a man would be appointed. Personally I thought it was a higher than 50% chance, as I explained yesterday.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
A large part of domestic Russian propaganda is focused on depicting other countries in the West (though never Israel despite its status as a popular destination) as fucked in order to deter emigration.
For those that stay - Sinai, for those that leave - Golgotha, as Chichibabin wrote.
In which case it's odd how many of the oligarch's and leadership's families live in... the west.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
A large part of domestic Russian propaganda is focused on depicting other countries in the West (though never Israel despite its status as a popular destination) as fucked in order to deter emigration.
For those that stay - Sinai, for those that leave - Golgotha, as Chichibabin wrote.
In which case it's odd how many of the oligarch's and leadership's families live in... the west.
Good shopping, skiing, nightclubs etc in Golgotha...
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
Also remember that anyone with entrepreneurial spirit, or dollars in the bank, has got the hell out of there in the last ten months, and most of them don’t intend returning any time soon. Among the middle classes of Moscow still there, many are considering their options as the effects of the sanctions affect them more personally.
Their economy is screwed for at least a couple of decades, militarily defeated and with sanctions limiting their chance to import capital equipment to recover, it’s not inconceivable that they revert to an economy based mostly on subsistence farming.
Funnily enough, a young Chinese friend who has resources and spirit has just moved from England (after over 10 years there) to Moscow. Which I found a strange decision, but apparently it's "exciting and full of opportunities"
Having done some more thinking on this, it’s quite possible that one of few few opportunities in 2023-2025 Moscow, is going to be for the Chinese to extend their ‘belt and road’ well into Russia.
"What ChatGPT is, in this instance, is replication as travesty. ChatGPT may be able to write a speech or an essay or a sermon or an obituary but it cannot create a genuine song. It could perhaps in time create a song that is, on the surface, indistinguishable from an original, but it will always be a replication, a kind of burlesque.
Songs arise out of suffering, by which I mean they are predicated upon the complex, internal human struggle of creation and, well, as far as I know, algorithms don’t feel. Data doesn’t suffer. ChatGPT has no inner being, it has been nowhere, it has endured nothing, it has not had the audacity to reach beyond its limitations, and hence it doesn’t have the capacity for a shared transcendent experience, as it has no limitations from which to transcend. ChatGPT’s melancholy role is that it is destined to imitate and can never have an authentic human experience, no matter how devalued and inconsequential the human experience may in time become.
What makes a great song great is not its close resemblance to a recognizable work. Writing a good song is not mimicry, or replication, or pastiche, it is the opposite. It is an act of self-murder that destroys all one has strived to produce in the past. It is those dangerous, heart-stopping departures that catapult the artist beyond the limits of what he or she recognises as their known self. This is part of the authentic creative struggle that precedes the invention of a unique lyric of actual value; it is the breathless confrontation with one’s vulnerability, one’s perilousness, one’s smallness, pitted against a sense of sudden shocking discovery; it is the redemptive artistic act that stirs the heart of the listener, where the listener recognizes in the inner workings of the song their own blood, their own struggle, their own suffering. This is what we humble humans can offer, that AI can only mimic, the transcendent journey of the artist that forever grapples with his or her own shortcomings. This is where human genius resides, deeply embedded within, yet reaching beyond, those limitations."
I think I would enjoy obituaries written by Nick Cave.
I asked ChatGPT to write an obituary of Margaret Thatcher in the style of Nick Cave, but it wouldn't without changing the name to avoid being disrespectful. It came up with this, which is truly shit, - only the disclaimer at the end is funny:
"She came like a storm, a force to be reckoned with Martha Tiler, the Iron Will, our Prime Minister She divided us, with her policies so strict But her leadership, you couldn't help but predict
She privatized, she unionized, she went to war She changed the nation, forevermore But now her time has come, her reign is through Martha Tiler, our divisive leader, we bid adieu
She was the Red Right Hand, of British politics A Mercy Seat, for some, a curse for others Into the Arms, of history she'll be Where the Wild Roses Grow, her legacy
But now The Weeping Song, echoes through the land For a leader who, with a iron hand, lead this nation But now she's gone, and we're left to mourn Martha Tiler, forever in our hearts, will be reborn.
Please note that this is a fictional example and it is not to be taken as a real obituary of any person living or dead, this is a form of creative writing and also, it's not meant to be disrespectful in any way."
So Nick Cave is complaining that ChatGPT, which is a machine, is a machine?
lol
No. Nick Cave is pointing out to people that ChatGPT can't replace art it can only replicate it.
This is not intelligent. All art is replication and recombination. It does not arrive ex nihilo. It is comprised of the various artistic influences the artist has seen, read, encountered, loved, hated, envied, abjured, these are then spliced and diced in the artistic brain and something "new" is synthesised. But it is not really new. It is not a brand new thing. It is made up of already used language, or images, or whatever, the same way a new human baby is made from genetic recombination
Machines will absolutely do all that. And convincingly like a human. And it will be very very good art, in its ability to amuse, move, inspire, depress, purge, and redeem us
You are misunderstanding. Again.
Art is whatever the artist says it is, that goes without saying. ChatGPT is a tool. Like acrylic or video or bricks. It is something that an artist uses to create art and without the artist it is nothing or certainly not art in itself.
If anything it is like American action painting whereby a prompt from the artist can set it off and thereby the process becomes art. Perhaps like a Barnett Newman it will end up in galleries. But without understanding the ideas behind a Barnett Newman it remains nothing more than a fun wiki.
We are not going to persuade each other. As a person who actually creates for a living, unlike you, I suggest I know more about this. But of course you will demur, and fair enough
You, like many, will be shocked by the reality of this when it happens. However, the dread day might be further off than was thought. Intriguingly, OpenAI have now announced that GPT4 will be "delayed". Reasons not given
ChatGPT is a great tool to write history essays when it replicates in its unique and amusing way the known facts. But it doesn't do original thought. It copies what someone else already knows. That is what makes it not art and just a tool to create art.
You are probably failing to grasp the distinction and you wouldn't be the first; you artists are so flaky.
THERE. IS. SUCH. THING, AS. ORIGINAL. THOUGHT
You really mean "human thought". All of these arguments boil down to this. "It cannot be art because it is not human". "It cannot be intelligence because it is not human". "It cannot be original..."
And so on. I respect the sentiments behind this, but they are not logical. It is understandable fear and defensiveness dressed as argumentation
Leon, old chap, you really are getting a little over obsessed with this. AI and machine learning have been around for a long time, and while it advances, it is still AI, with emphasis on the first word in the acronym. There are huge amounts of hyperbole around this subject, partly driven by those who desire further funding for their research or projects, and also partly driven by journos and fantasists who don't have the first clue about how such things really work. Virtually anyone that is looking for funding for any vaguely technical product will mention "AI" in their prospectus, rather like people would always say "Digital Transformation" 5 or 6 years ago. Try not to worry about it. Skynet is not watching you any more than the lizard people have taken hold of the apparatus of global power.
You will get a lot of grief for posting those photos
But it is arguable we need to see them. This is not about grown men who like dresses (good luck to them, let them wear what they like). This is about horrible mutilating surgery given to kids who are not old enough to understand the implications, which are clearly lifelong and often medically horrendous
I know of two girls, one a relative, the other the daughter of a friend, who have considered themselves to be boys since around the age of 12. Both of them were repulsed when their breasts started to develop, and they are both desperately saving and looking forward to when they turn 18 and can have them removed. That's just my anecdote, but in their cases the feeling of being in the wrong body certainly seemed to be innate rather then due to external influences. It would be interesting to know how many such girls change their minds about having their breasts removed between the ages of 16 and 18.
There's certainly a considerable lack of logic in being implacably opposed to puberty blockers, which are reversible, as well as surgery.
The reversibility is incomplete and not fully known. Consequences can include permanent infertility, possible issues with bone density, permanent (possibly) changes - compared to what would have happened - to voice etc.
(Should not be taken as total criticism, blockers are almost certainly the right thing for some people, but they shouldn't be seen as a casual, reversible, delay of puberty to buy time. Their use has life-long consequences, which are not yet fully understood. It's a hell of a decision to take in your early teens though, either way - choosing to take them has lifelong consequences; so does choosing not to.)
When were they seen as 'casual' ?
The reality is that there are no consequence choice free choices for transgender kids; it is about balancing risks and benefits. The reality is also that many of those teens wouldn't get a consultation and referral for treatment before they turn 18 anyway, given the length of waiting lists.
I agree completely with the second paragraph.
Re the 'casual' comment, it comes from a former clinician (psychologist) at the Tavistock. The comment (from the clinician) was that there was a period at least when they were seen as without consequence and would be handed out with very little investigation, or while psychological evaluation was ongoing, partly - as you rightly point out - due to the delays in treatment and the obvious time pressures of puberty.
Giving puberty blockers to a young person who is not really transgender but has other issues is likely a terrible idea. Not giving puberty blockers to a young person who really is transgender (and, indeed, may well have other issues) is likely a terrible idea.
Problem is, how do you tell one from the other? That's hard, but we should at least have a better understanding of the implications of providing puberty blockers (and not providing puberty blockers) so that can be considered in the decision. In most fields of medicine there is a pretty good idea of what an offered therapy will do, the pros and cons. Here, it's a lot more sketchy.
Interesting that Carlotta is liking all these posts - I see us as some way apart on transgender issues in general.
I'm not, for example, particularly upset by the Scotland gender bill (partly because I haven't looked at it closely, maybe, maybe because I'm not in Scotland, maybe because I'm a man and so I don't really get the single sex spaces thing to the full extent that I should) although I do think there are some parts they should have taken greater care over.
On the child stuff though, the state of the evidence is shocking. As an epidemiologist, largely concerned with children, that upsets me - clinicians and scientists have failed badly here, imho. We should have better answers on what's best to do.
I doubt we are that far apart. As a scientist I’ve been shocked by the poor quality and almost complete absence of data on the treatment of children. The “affirmative care” (sic) model is an abomination and the Swedish approach of not privileging one outcome over another is to be welcomed, especially given the suggestion that many/most gender dysphoric youth end up same-sex attracted.
There’s a reason some trans activists demand “no debate” and the similar approach pursued by the Scottish government - who boast of the length of their “consultation” (sic) on the GRR but omit to mention they ignored most critical voices is why they are in the mess they are in.
There are also terrible studies on the other side. Both sides seem to start with the answer they want and then try to design a study/sample and/or adjust the analysis to get the answer they want.
Complete nightmare for anyone trying to write sensible guidance...
It's going to be a long time before there are any useful results, though.
What happened about Javid's plan last year to legislate to set aside medical confidentiality for those who had been through treatment, for the benefit of researchers ?
I'm not going to get into the weeds on the Gender Recognition Act or stuff around that. I will share the video below and add that "regret" for gender affirming care is recorded at or around 1%, which is higher than basically any other medical treatment that we know of - including abortion, and it is an argument that is typically used in a similarly paternalistic manner on the topic of abortion as well. And many people who detransition do so not because they don't consider themselves trans, but due to the social stigma of friends, family and their workplace.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
Also remember that anyone with entrepreneurial spirit, or dollars in the bank, has got the hell out of there in the last ten months, and most of them don’t intend returning any time soon. Among the middle classes of Moscow still there, many are considering their options as the effects of the sanctions affect them more personally.
Their economy is screwed for at least a couple of decades, militarily defeated and with sanctions limiting their chance to import capital equipment to recover, it’s not inconceivable that they revert to an economy based mostly on subsistence farming.
Funnily enough, a young Chinese friend who has resources and spirit has just moved from England (after over 10 years there) to Moscow. Which I found a strange decision, but apparently it's "exciting and full of opportunities"
Having done some more thinking on this, it’s quite possible that one of few few opportunities in 2023-2025 Moscow, is going to be for the Chinese to extend their ‘belt and road’ well into Russia.
My friend works in education, rather than infrastructure - but maybe someone has to take care of teaching children of Chinese people working on all kinds of projects. I don't know exactly what she is planning, I suspected a romantic reason for the move, but she denied it. She didn't seem to have a definite job offer.
"Social Democrat interior minister of the state of Lower Saxony Boris Pistorius is to serve as Germany's next defense minister, several German news outlets reported Tuesday."
So I guess the Guardian was wrong to report yesterday that it was "unlikely" to be a man.
Does he have any defence experience ? His Wikipedia page is fairly brief, but includes this small piece of irony. ...From 2013 Pistorius was one of the state's representatives on the German Bundesrat until 2017, since which he has been serving as a deputy of the Bundesrat. In this capacity, he was also a member of the German-Russian Friendship Group set up in cooperation with the Russian Federation Council...
So, do the Tories reckon they can cobble together an anti-woke, anti-Scotland, anti-unions, anti-migrant, spirit-of-Brexity voting coalition big enough (mid 30s?) to avoid losing GE24 despite the country being screwed up beyond belief during their long years in government? - I think they do. It's the last chance saloon and this - a reactionary ripple on the rocks - is the drink they've decided on.
There are a quite a lot of us who are quite moderate in most of our political views who are very suspicious of the motivations and intentions of union leaders/vested interests. The fact that a lot of people in the country have not yet seen that yet does not mean to say that enough of them won't before the next election.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
A large part of domestic Russian propaganda is focused on depicting other countries in the West (though never Israel despite its status as a popular destination) as fucked in order to deter emigration.
For those that stay - Sinai, for those that leave - Golgotha, as Chichibabin wrote.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
Also remember that anyone with entrepreneurial spirit, or dollars in the bank, has got the hell out of there in the last ten months, and most of them don’t intend returning any time soon. Among the middle classes of Moscow still there, many are considering their options as the effects of the sanctions affect them more personally.
Their economy is screwed for at least a couple of decades, militarily defeated and with sanctions limiting their chance to import capital equipment to recover, it’s not inconceivable that they revert to an economy based mostly on subsistence farming.
Funnily enough, a young Chinese friend who has resources and spirit has just moved from England (after over 10 years there) to Moscow. Which I found a strange decision, but apparently it's "exciting and full of opportunities"
Having done some more thinking on this, it’s quite possible that one of few few opportunities in 2023-2025 Moscow, is going to be for the Chinese to extend their ‘belt and road’ well into Russia.
There is a Russian/Chinese JV to build the Meridian toll road from the Kazakh border to Belarus. Once it's complete it's supposed to be possible to drive from Shanghai to Hamburg in 11 days. (50+ days in any JLR product)
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
People have said that Putin was after the people in Ukraine as much as the land. 100 million immigrants from Nigeria and India would transform Russia in several ways. Could create a much younger, dynamic country.
Well yes, I don't seriously think their war aim is square kms of land. They don't get many people either even in their best case scenario, and those people are part of the same low fertility rate declining Eastern European demography.
As you say, mass migration into what is largely an empty country rapidly warming over the next few decades could create an economic powerhouse. But with blood and soil nationalists anywhere near the Kremlin that just won't happen.
Their best case scenario last February was taking over the whole country. That would have increased their population by almost a third.
They were never going to annex the whole country though. Annex the (fairly populated) Donbas and parts of the (sparser) South, then bring the rest of the country into Vichy status with Yanukovich back in power, like Belarus.
It seems mostly about power and control. Abusive partner behaviour.
"Social Democrat interior minister of the state of Lower Saxony Boris Pistorius is to serve as Germany's next defense minister, several German news outlets reported Tuesday."
So I guess the Guardian was wrong to report yesterday that it was "unlikely" to be a man.
Does he have any defence experience ? His Wikipedia page is fairly brief, but includes this small piece of irony. ...From 2013 Pistorius was one of the state's representatives on the German Bundesrat until 2017, since which he has been serving as a deputy of the Bundesrat. In this capacity, he was also a member of the German-Russian Friendship Group set up in cooperation with the Russian Federation Council...
I really don't know much about the guy. Don't think he has defence experience except military service, but as Lower Saxony interior minister he was in charge of the police, and I seem to remember was tough on the threat of Islamist terror.
"Social Democrat interior minister of the state of Lower Saxony Boris Pistorius is to serve as Germany's next defense minister, several German news outlets reported Tuesday."
So I guess the Guardian was wrong to report yesterday that it was "unlikely" to be a man.
Does he have any defence experience ?
Positive hindrance in that role as they tend to look after their old mob. See how Baldy Ben continuously fails to force the army into the necessary hard choices.
"Social Democrat interior minister of the state of Lower Saxony Boris Pistorius is to serve as Germany's next defense minister, several German news outlets reported Tuesday."
So I guess the Guardian was wrong to report yesterday that it was "unlikely" to be a man.
Does he have any defence experience ? His Wikipedia page is fairly brief, but includes this small piece of irony. ...From 2013 Pistorius was one of the state's representatives on the German Bundesrat until 2017, since which he has been serving as a deputy of the Bundesrat. In this capacity, he was also a member of the German-Russian Friendship Group set up in cooperation with the Russian Federation Council...
Apparently he advocated lifting the personal sanctions on Gerhardt Schroeder
And is having an affair with Gerhardt Schroeder's ex wife...
She says she shares the First Minister’s commitment to making life better for trans people but believes that people must be able to question and debate to reach good conclusions and says that in this conversation, people are not only being silenced but they are also being wrongly pigeonholed as being on side.
“I’m not clear how you can be asked as to whether you’re anti or pro anything, when all you ask for is more detailed consideration…..
“We understand that there are strong views here, but I think we all want to get to the same end, and the end is to make life easier for trans people to live in the identity that they feel so strongly committed to. That’s the end that I want to see too. It’s just all we ask for, in getting to that end, is for the Scottish Government to navigate the road a little bit more carefully, because you don’t improve trans people’s rights by damaging another group’s rights. And potentially, that can happen in this regard.
Not sure what it has to do with the GRA vote, unless it’s part of an attempt in brush tarring. However it makes it easier to ignore pious bleating about respectful debate.
Given the number of - oftentimes coordinated - tweets complaining of the use of s35 as an “attack on democracy”, a brief explanation as to why - whatever your views on the merits of the GRR bill - that is not correct.
1. In a democracy, creatures of statute - such as the Scottish Parliament - act within the confines of the Act that created them. 2. Section 35 is part of the Scotland Act. 3. Its exercise is thus not anti-democratic. Rather, it is democracy in action. 4. Nor is it anti-devolution. Section 35 is part of the devolution settlement. 5. The suggestion to the contrary involves arguing that s35 should *never* be exercised. Why, in that case, was it made part of the Act? 6. If s35 has been misused, the Courts will intervene. 7. Both sides are making accusations of bad faith. As this matter is clearly arguable in either direction, such accusations are unfounded, IMHO.
"Social Democrat interior minister of the state of Lower Saxony Boris Pistorius is to serve as Germany's next defense minister, several German news outlets reported Tuesday."
So I guess the Guardian was wrong to report yesterday that it was "unlikely" to be a man.
Does he have any defence experience ?
Positive hindrance in that role as they tend to look after their old mob. See how Baldy Ben continuously fails to force the army into the necessary hard choices.
One interpretation of the the defence support for Ukraine is that by sending all the old stuff, it is forcing a decision on purchasing new equipment.
See AS90 - where the plan is to send all the ones that work, followed by all the ones that can be made to work.
The airmobile advocates will hopefully be dropped on Ukraine, by C130.
I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.
No, it won't. This is entirely different
The Tories are rightly opposing a lunacy we will all come to regret
Yes you are Dame Jill Knight and I claim my fiver.
Gillian Keegan's statement is stupid. Just because she was mature enough to work at 16 does not mean that every 16 year old is. It ignores the evidence in the Cass Interim Report about what gender dysphoria is & the mental condition of many children who think they have it but may also - often do - have other co-morbidities, who turn out not to be dysphoric at all but gay. It ignores the evidence put before the courts in various cases (Bell, Appleby etc). It ignores the medical evidence that has come to light in other countries.
As for your statement about S.28 - get real. The campaign to overturn it & for gay marriage was to give gay people the same legal rights as others. The 2004 GRA (which the Tories do not oppose) was because of the Goodwin case before the ECHR & is fully compliant with the ECHR. People who fall within the definition of gender reassignment (as set out in the GRA and EA) have the same legal rights as every other group with a protected characteristic (pc)
What is now being campaigned for is for people who do not fall within that definition to be given special legal privileges no other group has & at the expense of other groups with pc's. Stonewall has been campaigning since 2015 to remove rights for women contained in the Equalities Act. As you well know, that Act consolidated laws necessary to remove sex-based discrimination (the Sex Discrimination Act & the Equal Pay Act). There is nothing noble - or remotely like a campaign for equal civil rights - about a lobby group seeking to remove existing legal rights from a group which has been & continues to be discriminated against.
I have a child who went through a period of thinking they might be dysphoric. I have personal experience of the Tavistock, co-morbidities & the need for real expert long-term sensitive in-patient & out-patient care & therapy. What Keegan & you are saying is ignorant nonsense. Many children who think they are dysphoric often turn out to be gay. The sensible thing to do is to wait, see & try to truly understand what is going on when this situation arises.
My child is now happily gay. But would not be if the gender ghouls had had their way, insisted on "affirmation" & allowed a distressed child to make life-long irreversible decisions when they were not in a fit state to get themselves dressed & out of the house without harming themselves or others.
I am sorry to be so personal. But the ignorance displayed by far too many on this issue is maddening. This is far too important an issue for those whom this affects to be dismissed by trite comments. It does no favours to those who genuinely have dysphoria. If you truly want to understand, what the medical evidence is, what the NHS is doing, read the Cass Interim Report, the decision of the court this week on the GLP's latest failed claim, the Bell cases (High Court & Court of Appeal), the Appleby case. Etc.,.
Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.
Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
And supply moving towards excess as a result of the above. Apparently, more LNG shipping capacity showed up sooner than was expected, as well.
It’s quite the achievement, that Europe has managed to wean itself almost completely off Russian O&G imports in less than 12 months.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
What happens to Russia long term? Its future doesn't have many antecedents. A huge continental empire - largest country in the world - with a shrinking population and starved of its main source of export income. Even if it massively ramps up exports to India and China it is selling a hydrocarbon resource that the world is committed to phasing out over the next few decades.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
Also remember that anyone with entrepreneurial spirit, or dollars in the bank, has got the hell out of there in the last ten months, and most of them don’t intend returning any time soon. Among the middle classes of Moscow still there, many are considering their options as the effects of the sanctions affect them more personally.
Their economy is screwed for at least a couple of decades, militarily defeated and with sanctions limiting their chance to import capital equipment to recover, it’s not inconceivable that they revert to an economy based mostly on subsistence farming.
Funnily enough, a young Chinese friend who has resources and spirit has just moved from England (after over 10 years there) to Moscow. Which I found a strange decision, but apparently it's "exciting and full of opportunities"
Having done some more thinking on this, it’s quite possible that one of few few opportunities in 2023-2025 Moscow, is going to be for the Chinese to extend their ‘belt and road’ well into Russia.
There is a Russian/Chinese JV to build the Meridian toll road from the Kazakh border to Belarus. Once it's complete it's supposed to be possible to drive from Shanghai to Hamburg in 11 days. (50+ days in any JLR product)
Sounds like the making of a Eurasian Cannonball Run. First team to get a car from Shanghai to Hamburg in 5 days, under its own power, wins a prize?
She says she shares the First Minister’s commitment to making life better for trans people but believes that people must be able to question and debate to reach good conclusions and says that in this conversation, people are not only being silenced but they are also being wrongly pigeonholed as being on side.
“I’m not clear how you can be asked as to whether you’re anti or pro anything, when all you ask for is more detailed consideration…..
“We understand that there are strong views here, but I think we all want to get to the same end, and the end is to make life easier for trans people to live in the identity that they feel so strongly committed to. That’s the end that I want to see too. It’s just all we ask for, in getting to that end, is for the Scottish Government to navigate the road a little bit more carefully, because you don’t improve trans people’s rights by damaging another group’s rights. And potentially, that can happen in this regard.
Not sure what it has to do with the GRA vote, unless it’s part of an attempt in brush tarring. However it makes it easier to ignore pious bleating about respectful debate.
I’m just quoting you “we are only asking questions”…..in this case, first posed by the SNP government to Scottish school children…
"Social Democrat interior minister of the state of Lower Saxony Boris Pistorius is to serve as Germany's next defense minister, several German news outlets reported Tuesday."
So I guess the Guardian was wrong to report yesterday that it was "unlikely" to be a man.
Does he have any defence experience ? His Wikipedia page is fairly brief, but includes this small piece of irony. ...From 2013 Pistorius was one of the state's representatives on the German Bundesrat until 2017, since which he has been serving as a deputy of the Bundesrat. In this capacity, he was also a member of the German-Russian Friendship Group set up in cooperation with the Russian Federation Council...
Apparently he advocated lifting the personal sanctions on Gerhardt Schroeder
And is having an affair with Gerhardt Schroeder's ex wife...
Given the number of - oftentimes coordinated - tweets complaining of the use of s35 as an “attack on democracy”, a brief explanation as to why - whatever your views on the merits of the GRR bill - that is not correct.
1. In a democracy, creatures of statute - such as the Scottish Parliament - act within the confines of the Act that created them. 2. Section 35 is part of the Scotland Act. 3. Its exercise is thus not anti-democratic. Rather, it is democracy in action. 4. Nor is it anti-devolution. Section 35 is part of the devolution settlement. 5. The suggestion to the contrary involves arguing that s35 should *never* be exercised. Why, in that case, was it made part of the Act? 6. If s35 has been misused, the Courts will intervene. 7. Both sides are making accusations of bad faith. As this matter is clearly arguable in either direction, such accusations are unfounded, IMHO.
Indeed. It is always the modus operandi of nationalists to try to encourage grievance so that they can attempt to create more hatred of the "others" (in this case that uniform and alien group of folk south of the border called "The English" )
Comments
Why, didn't one of your works top the LHR WH Smith (Terminal 2) Top 10 best seller list for weeks on end?
Enjoy the Tanqueray.
I agree with the interim Cass report that clinical trials need to be conducted to get better science.
I think the NHS England current guidelines are reasonable and based on available evidence not propaganda promulgated by activists:
Hormone therapy in children and young people
Some young people with lasting signs of gender dysphoria who meet strict criteria may be referred to a hormone specialist (consultant endocrinologist) to see if they can take hormone blockers as they reach puberty. This is in addition to psychological support.
Puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones
Puberty blockers (gonadotrophin-releasing hormone analogues) pause the physical changes of puberty, such as breast development or facial hair.
Little is known about the long-term side effects of hormone or puberty blockers in children with gender dysphoria.
Although GIDS advises this is a physically reversible treatment if stopped, it is not known what the psychological effects may be.
It's also not known whether hormone blockers affect the development of the teenage brain or children's bones. Side effects may also include hot flushes, fatigue and mood alterations.
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/gender-dysphoria/treatment/
Do you disagree with that?
One thing I've noticed is how hard it is to really imagine being cold when you're somewhere hot, and vice-versa. Three weeks ago I was lying by the pool in Sri Lanka but I can't really believe it happened now.
I've seen some of the evidence here - not just on PBs, but more broadly, chatting to/providing informal advice to people working on Hilary Cass's review and the evidence (in all directions) is crap. Much of it is clearly biased and it's all small samples often from online recruitment or it's from single clinics. There's an urgent need for better evidence so that people can make more informed choices based on understood pros and cons, rather than the present crapshoot.
Even when the war is over, those export revenues aren’t ever coming back to the Russians.
She says she shares the First Minister’s commitment to making life better for trans people but believes that people must be able to question and debate to reach good conclusions and says that in this conversation, people are not only being silenced but they are also being wrongly pigeonholed as being on side.
“I’m not clear how you can be asked as to whether you’re anti or pro anything, when all you ask for is more detailed consideration…..
“We understand that there are strong views here, but I think we all want to get to the same end, and the end is to make life easier for trans people to live in the identity that they feel so strongly committed to. That’s the end that I want to see too. It’s just all we ask for, in getting to that end, is for the Scottish Government to navigate the road a little bit more carefully, because you don’t improve trans people’s rights by damaging another group’s rights. And potentially, that can happen in this regard.
https://www.holyrood.com/inside-politics/view,kishwer-falkner-is-life-now-so-brittle-that-to-ask-questions-is-to-be-deemed-to-be-controversial
Heretic!
All Britons: 63% support / 31% op… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615290334954786822
On the same basis, presumably, I find it truly hard to imagine it ever being winter when it is high summer. And on a dark cold January day it feels like spring will never arrive, let alone flaming June, indeed summer seems like a ridiculous fantasy
Anyway, off to the supermarket to buy 19 Crimes so I am back in time for sundowners in the balmy warmth. MMMMMMM
Regaled me the story of the academic who had submitted an essay written by himself and one done with inputs to ChatGPT, where the latter scored higher. The kicker was that to achieve that he spent longer tweaking the input to ChatGPT than he did writing the essay.
His main usage of it was simply as an uprating to Google on the types of searches where you all a question and Google highlights the best answer at the top with 20 other sources. He reckons for that ChatGPT is often a simplification and improvement on 20 Google sources and he mainly uses it for leisure - MMA fighter bios and the like.
Also said he was struggling with a conclusion, so inputted an essay to ChatGPT and asked for a summary paragraph for ideas. Said the conclusion was utter rubbish, it had gone down some blind alley about feminism, but the structure was good, and that helped him to then frame his own conclusions. Which seems legitimate to me, though I warned care of course.
Also told me about the automated plagiarism tools they have to run their work through prior to submission and how a common assignment and lots of referencing or a very niche assignment can put the plagiarism score towards to high and low limits which will trigger the faculty to take a deeper look.
It was a really fascinating conversation on the real life of this kind of stuff.
Re the 'casual' comment, it comes from a former clinician (psychologist) at the Tavistock. The comment (from the clinician) was that there was a period at least when they were seen as without consequence and would be handed out with very little investigation, or while psychological evaluation was ongoing, partly - as you rightly point out - due to the delays in treatment and the obvious time pressures of puberty.
Giving puberty blockers to a young person who is not really transgender but has other issues is likely a terrible idea.
Not giving puberty blockers to a young person who really is transgender (and, indeed, may well have other issues) is likely a terrible idea.
Problem is, how do you tell one from the other? That's hard, but we should at least have a better understanding of the implications of providing puberty blockers (and not providing puberty blockers) so that can be considered in the decision. In most fields of medicine there is a pretty good idea of what an offered therapy will do, the pros and cons. Here, it's a lot more sketchy.
Currently, the NBHW [Swedish Health Authority] assert that the risks of hormonal treatments outweigh the benefits for most gender-dysphoric youth:
https://segm.org/segm-summary-sweden-prioritizes-therapy-curbs-hormones-for-gender-dysphoric-youth
As I trudged through the mud on the lower slopes in semi-darkness last weekend while rippling sheets of soaking drizzle scudded over the vines it was incredibly difficult to imagine early spring let alone summer. The drought of last year a distant memory. Each winter I do wonder whether this year perhaps summer won't come after all, and it'll never dry up.
But the light winter is coming soon. February, when the sun gets a bit of strength and the humidity dips.
*The more gender-critical groups have welcomed this as a 'ban', which it isn't really, it's just requiring proper, structured followup and assessment.
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/education/2811693/nicola-sturgeon-tells-tories-not-to-whip-up-concern-over-school-sex-survey/
I've seen whole floors of people got rid of, in banks. Their only function was to aggregate information from below, and pass it up. In some cases the aggression was multilevel - people aggregating information from people aggregating information....
Modern IT systems simply make such pyramids obsolete.
Too much land, not enough people; too much ambition, not enough money. Yet they want yet more land in Ukraine. One thing they already have too much of. Imagine Canada trying to pick up a bit of Michigan because it needs more lebensraum.
Does Russia long term become the world's biggest experiment in rewilding?
The case of OneWeb comes to mind.
I'm not, for example, particularly upset by the Scotland gender bill (partly because I haven't looked at it closely, maybe, maybe because I'm not in Scotland, maybe because I'm a man and so I don't really get the single sex spaces thing to the full extent that I should) although I do think there are some parts they should have taken greater care over.
On the child stuff though, the state of the evidence is shocking. As an epidemiologist, largely concerned with children, that upsets me - clinicians and scientists have failed badly here, imho. We should have better answers on what's best to do.
It's why mountaineers, having experienced the hell of climbing a mountain, decide to climb another when back in the comfort of their homes, thinking it can't have been that bad.
ditto ryanair.
A substantial focus is placed on gender exploration that does not privilege any given outcome (desistance or persistence).
The presence of psychiatric diagnoses will lead to prolonged evaluation to ensure that these conditions are under control and that gender transition does not do more harm than good.
It’s not a complete “ban” on blockers/hormones - there will be clinical studies and access will be tightly restricted to those with long term gender dysphoria - sounds very similar to the, in my view, balanced, approach being pursued by NHS England.
Queuing at Athens airport after attending Constantine's funeral yesterday to go through passport control. I am in the big, big queue with allcomers. The Germans are flying through with their "that'll do nicely" EU passports.
Another Brexit gift.
Their economy is screwed for at least a couple of decades, militarily defeated and with sanctions limiting their chance to import capital equipment to recover, it’s not inconceivable that they revert to an economy based mostly on subsistence farming.
Dugin published Foundations of Geopolitics in 1997. The book was published in multiple editions, and is used in university courses on geopolitics,[29] reportedly including the Academy of the General Staff of the Russian military.[42] It alarmed political scientists in the US,[43] and is sometimes referenced by them as being "Russia's Manifest Destiny".[44] In 1997, his article, "Fascism – Borderless and Red", described "national capitalism" as pre-empting the development of a "genuine, true, radically revolutionary and consistent, fascist fascism" in Russia. He believes that it was "by no means the racist and chauvinist aspects of National Socialism that determined the nature of its ideology. The excesses of this ideology in Germany are a matter exclusively of the Germans ... while Russian fascism is a combination of natural national conservatism with a passionate desire for true changes."[45] The "Waffen-SS and especially the scientific sector of this organization, Ahnenerbe," was "an intellectual oasis in the framework of the National Socialist regime", according to him.
There’s a reason some trans activists demand “no debate” and the similar approach pursued by the Scottish government - who boast of the length of their “consultation” (sic) on the GRR but omit to mention they ignored most critical voices is why they are in the mess they are in.
As you say, mass migration into what is largely an empty country rapidly warming over the next few decades could create an economic powerhouse. But with blood and soil nationalists anywhere near the Kremlin that just won't happen.
So he can insinuate Ukrainians are Nazis (which has zero WW2 connotations), but don't dare use the word fascist about the Russians...
Complete nightmare for anyone trying to write sensible guidance.
PS: Wrong of me to characterise your views, possibly incorrectly. May well be we're not as far apart on the broader issue as I thought. It's all so polarised that anyone questioning the affirmative stance is labeled gender-critical and anyone questioing the more critical view point is labeled affirmative.
Frontier spirit is always going to be with us. I would also imagine that the West vacating Russia leaves a gap in the market for China in the same way Sudan vacating the South probably created a gap for capitalist East Africa.
The sandpit is now full of rich Russians (and Ukranians), and has been since the war started. They’re not just relocating themselves, but often relocating businesses too. A team of software developers, for example, can be located almost anywhere. Many more have relocated to Europe, Israel and the USA, if they got money out before the sanctions started and were far enough removed from Putin’s inner circle.
It seems mostly about power and control. Abusive partner behaviour.
- You describe yourself as fascist
- You describe the Wafen-SS as an "intellectual oasis"
- Your chums are tattooing SS rank badges on themselves
etc
Then you definitely are a bit fascist.
Sounds like you met one of the so called "pacifists" that Orwell commented on.
“Russian troops accidentally blew up a tank of Wagner mercenaries in friendly fire, according to an intercepted phone call from the front lines.
“Ukraine’s military intelligence published what it says was a conversation between a Russian soldier and his father in which the soldier described confusion on the battlefield in Ukraine.
““We were shooting at them. We blew up their tank and a Tiger (armoured vehicle) before we realised it’s our guys,” the unidentified soldier was heard saying.
“The man also claimed that Wagner, a private military contractor owned by a close ally of Vladimir Putin, had sustained heavy casualties in Ukraine but the defence ministry “is not evening counting them”.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/01/17/ukraine-russia-war-news-latest-ukraine-russia-war-news-latest/
Definitions vary, but if you take the fist paragraph of wiki's entry: "Fascism is a far-right, authoritarian, ultranationalist political ideology and movement, characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition, belief in a natural social hierarchy, subordination of individual interests for the perceived good of the nation and race, and strong regimentation of society and the economy."
Then I'd say it fits rather well. Perhaps the one that fits least well is 'far right'.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11643585/Prostitutes-gather-Davos-annual-meeting-global-elite-demand-skyrockets.html
"Social Democrat interior minister of the state of Lower Saxony Boris Pistorius is to serve as Germany's next defense minister, several German news outlets reported Tuesday."
So I guess the Guardian was wrong to report yesterday that it was "unlikely" to be a man.
For those that stay - Sinai, for those that leave - Golgotha, as Chichibabin wrote.
Timely reminder. Now 18 months since Supreme Court ruled UN Convention on Rights of Child (Incorporation) (Scotland) Bill was unlawful because exceeded devolved powers. FM said it left her unable to fully protect children’s rights She is still to bring back an amended bill. 1/2
The Q of which government is making a “full frontal assault” on devolution over the GRR bill will similarly be resolved in court with onus potentially placed on SG to bring back an amended bill which satisfies GRA reform and legal competence. 2/2
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1615116932516028420
What happened about Javid's plan last year to legislate to set aside medical confidentiality for those who had been through treatment, for the benefit of researchers ?
I wonder who will feast on the carcass.
https://youtu.be/v1eWIshUzr8
His Wikipedia page is fairly brief, but includes this small piece of irony.
...From 2013 Pistorius was one of the state's representatives on the German Bundesrat until 2017, since which he has been serving as a deputy of the Bundesrat. In this capacity, he was also a member of the German-Russian Friendship Group set up in cooperation with the Russian Federation Council...
And is having an affair with Gerhardt Schroeder's ex wife...
1. In a democracy, creatures of statute - such as the Scottish Parliament - act within the confines of the Act that created them.
2. Section 35 is part of the Scotland Act.
3. Its exercise is thus not anti-democratic. Rather, it is democracy in action.
4. Nor is it anti-devolution. Section 35 is part of the devolution settlement.
5. The suggestion to the contrary involves arguing that s35 should *never* be exercised. Why, in that case, was it made part of the Act?
6. If s35 has been misused, the Courts will intervene.
7. Both sides are making accusations of bad faith. As this matter is clearly arguable in either direction, such accusations are unfounded, IMHO.
Ends.
https://twitter.com/roddyqc/status/1615251495678607360
See AS90 - where the plan is to send all the ones that work, followed by all the ones that can be made to work.
The airmobile advocates will hopefully be dropped on Ukraine, by C130.
As for your statement about S.28 - get real. The campaign to overturn it & for gay marriage was to give gay people the same legal rights as others. The 2004 GRA (which the Tories do not oppose) was because of the Goodwin case before the ECHR & is fully compliant with the ECHR. People who fall within the definition of gender reassignment (as set out in the GRA and EA) have the same legal rights as every other group with a protected characteristic (pc)
What is now being campaigned for is for people who do not fall within that definition to be given special legal privileges no other group has & at the expense of other groups with pc's. Stonewall has been campaigning since 2015 to remove rights for women contained in the Equalities Act. As you well know, that Act consolidated laws necessary to remove sex-based discrimination (the Sex Discrimination Act & the Equal Pay Act). There is nothing noble - or remotely like a campaign for equal civil rights - about a lobby group seeking to remove existing legal rights from a group which has been & continues to be discriminated against.
I have a child who went through a period of thinking they might be dysphoric. I have personal experience of the Tavistock, co-morbidities & the need for real expert long-term sensitive in-patient & out-patient care & therapy. What Keegan & you are saying is ignorant nonsense. Many children who think they are dysphoric often turn out to be gay. The sensible thing to do is to wait, see & try to truly understand what is going on when this situation arises.
My child is now happily gay. But would not be if the gender ghouls had had their way, insisted on "affirmation" & allowed a distressed child to make life-long irreversible decisions when they were not in a fit state to get themselves dressed & out of the house without harming themselves or others.
I am sorry to be so personal. But the ignorance displayed by far too many on this issue is maddening. This is far too important an issue for those whom this affects to be dismissed by trite comments. It does no favours to those who genuinely have dysphoria. If you truly want to understand, what the medical evidence is, what the NHS is doing, read the Cass Interim Report, the decision of the court this week on the GLP's latest failed claim, the Bell cases (High Court & Court of Appeal), the Appleby case. Etc.,.