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Why the Tories will struggle to get an anti-trade union meme going – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 22 in General
Why the Tories will struggle to get an anti-trade union meme going – politicalbetting.com

Here’s spontaneous concern about strikes and trade unions since 1974… it’s not yet in top 10 concerns of British pic.twitter.com/iD0STRdB0C

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,330
    Test
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,818
    Way off-topic for a first post, but here's why trains could not run on one line yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/NetworkRailSE/status/1615013217540997122/photo/1

    That's some serious arcing.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,330
    I tend to start threads as a way of testing whether the Vanilla comments system is working.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,818
    On-topic:

    I'd expect there would need to be a year or more of sustained strike action before the public get really peeved. At the moment there are other concerns, and many people generally feel sympathetic to the strikers.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    edited January 17
    Just like the NHS in general where a non-trivial proportion of people are put at risk and receive sub-standard care, the strikes only affect a small minority of the population so the vast majority shrug their shoulders and, wrt the sainted nurses, probably support their 19% claim or whatever it is.

    Of course a small minority could number in the hundreds of thousands - a shocking number - but still a minority overall.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,880
    The government is hoist on its own petard in relation to the strikes. The wildcat strikes, all too often for political purposes, that I remember in the 70s and 80s wound people up and made them hostile to unions. Strikes by those who have voted for them in a democratic process and with a qualifying majority are strikes by the members that the members have voted for. It is their right to withhold their labour and most, even many Tory supporters, would not want a world where that right was taken away.

    The government recognises that so the current bill is at the edges, you can't let people die by withdrawing your labour. But we have all seen ambulance crews leave the picket line for category 1 and 2 calls already. The government is seeking to pick a fight which doesn't exist.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,880

    I tend to start threads as a way of testing whether the Vanilla comments system is working.

    Yeah, yeah, the glory and honour of claiming the first post on a thread is entirely incidental, we know.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    Isn’t the takeaway from that polling, that it’s something the public doesn’t yet care about, rather than it being a mistake for the government to be holding out against the strikers?

    Public sympathy might be with groups such as nurses, but less so for doctors, teachers and train drivers, who all earn middle-class salaries well above median income. If the Whitehall mandarins go on strike, will anyone actually notice?

    The changed working practices, especially of white-collar workers, bought on by the pandemic, mean that the transport unions have much less ability to cause widespread disruption to the economy than was traditionally the case. Many City workers will be ‘supporting the strikes’, because it means they get to WFH for a few days.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    DavidL said:

    The government is hoist on its own petard in relation to the strikes. The wildcat strikes, all too often for political purposes, that I remember in the 70s and 80s wound people up and made them hostile to unions. Strikes by those who have voted for them in a democratic process and with a qualifying majority are strikes by the members that the members have voted for. It is their right to withhold their labour and most, even many Tory supporters, would not want a world where that right was taken away.

    The government recognises that so the current bill is at the edges, you can't let people die by withdrawing your labour. But we have all seen ambulance crews leave the picket line for category 1 and 2 calls already. The government is seeking to pick a fight which doesn't exist.

    "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury."
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,880

    On-topic:

    I'd expect there would need to be a year or more of sustained strike action before the public get really peeved. At the moment there are other concerns, and many people generally feel sympathetic to the strikers.

    We are already getting to the point where implementation of last year's pay review recommendations is getting tied up with the current year. That offers an opportunity for flexibility on both sides.

    Personally, I do not think that flexibility should come in the form of lump sums or one off payments. The inflation of the last 12 months has changed the nominal standard of living permanently. Inflation will fall sharply this year but there will be no general deflation. A one off payment is an acceptance that those employed will have a permanent fall in their standard of living going forward. Why should they?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    The government is hoist on its own petard in relation to the strikes. The wildcat strikes, all too often for political purposes, that I remember in the 70s and 80s wound people up and made them hostile to unions. Strikes by those who have voted for them in a democratic process and with a qualifying majority are strikes by the members that the members have voted for. It is their right to withhold their labour and most, even many Tory supporters, would not want a world where that right was taken away.

    The government recognises that so the current bill is at the edges, you can't let people die by withdrawing your labour. But we have all seen ambulance crews leave the picket line for category 1 and 2 calls already. The government is seeking to pick a fight which doesn't exist.

    "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury."
    The interesting point there is that the Tories are still operating on the assumption the next election is not lost.

    Otherwise any increase in public spending is going to be Labour's problem...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,880
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    The government is hoist on its own petard in relation to the strikes. The wildcat strikes, all too often for political purposes, that I remember in the 70s and 80s wound people up and made them hostile to unions. Strikes by those who have voted for them in a democratic process and with a qualifying majority are strikes by the members that the members have voted for. It is their right to withhold their labour and most, even many Tory supporters, would not want a world where that right was taken away.

    The government recognises that so the current bill is at the edges, you can't let people die by withdrawing your labour. But we have all seen ambulance crews leave the picket line for category 1 and 2 calls already. The government is seeking to pick a fight which doesn't exist.

    "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury."
    The Labour party has existed for that purpose for the best part of 100 years and yet we still have a democracy of sorts.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    The government is hoist on its own petard in relation to the strikes. The wildcat strikes, all too often for political purposes, that I remember in the 70s and 80s wound people up and made them hostile to unions. Strikes by those who have voted for them in a democratic process and with a qualifying majority are strikes by the members that the members have voted for. It is their right to withhold their labour and most, even many Tory supporters, would not want a world where that right was taken away.

    The government recognises that so the current bill is at the edges, you can't let people die by withdrawing your labour. But we have all seen ambulance crews leave the picket line for category 1 and 2 calls already. The government is seeking to pick a fight which doesn't exist.

    "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury."
    The Labour party has existed for that purpose for the best part of 100 years and yet we still have a democracy of sorts.
    We do although I would say that the last Lab govt was elected in 1997 and it was elected on a platform of fiscal responsibility - at least for the first two years.

    But that said, just because something has continued to date doesn't mean it will continue in the future. You are falling for the inevitablist view of history.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    Scott_xP said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    The government is hoist on its own petard in relation to the strikes. The wildcat strikes, all too often for political purposes, that I remember in the 70s and 80s wound people up and made them hostile to unions. Strikes by those who have voted for them in a democratic process and with a qualifying majority are strikes by the members that the members have voted for. It is their right to withhold their labour and most, even many Tory supporters, would not want a world where that right was taken away.

    The government recognises that so the current bill is at the edges, you can't let people die by withdrawing your labour. But we have all seen ambulance crews leave the picket line for category 1 and 2 calls already. The government is seeking to pick a fight which doesn't exist.

    "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury."
    The interesting point there is that the Tories are still operating on the assumption the next election is not lost.

    Otherwise any increase in public spending is going to be Labour's problem...
    No being, whether human, animal or political can really contemplate its own demise.

    Or (big if) someone somewhere is trying to be responsible.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    The government is hoist on its own petard in relation to the strikes. The wildcat strikes, all too often for political purposes, that I remember in the 70s and 80s wound people up and made them hostile to unions. Strikes by those who have voted for them in a democratic process and with a qualifying majority are strikes by the members that the members have voted for. It is their right to withhold their labour and most, even many Tory supporters, would not want a world where that right was taken away.

    The government recognises that so the current bill is at the edges, you can't let people die by withdrawing your labour. But we have all seen ambulance crews leave the picket line for category 1 and 2 calls already. The government is seeking to pick a fight which doesn't exist.

    "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury."
    How long do you give it before that old chestnut is finally buried ?
    A couple more centuries ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,880
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    The government is hoist on its own petard in relation to the strikes. The wildcat strikes, all too often for political purposes, that I remember in the 70s and 80s wound people up and made them hostile to unions. Strikes by those who have voted for them in a democratic process and with a qualifying majority are strikes by the members that the members have voted for. It is their right to withhold their labour and most, even many Tory supporters, would not want a world where that right was taken away.

    The government recognises that so the current bill is at the edges, you can't let people die by withdrawing your labour. But we have all seen ambulance crews leave the picket line for category 1 and 2 calls already. The government is seeking to pick a fight which doesn't exist.

    "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury."
    The Labour party has existed for that purpose for the best part of 100 years and yet we still have a democracy of sorts.
    We do although I would say that the last Lab govt was elected in 1997 and it was elected on a platform of fiscal responsibility - at least for the first two years.

    But that said, just because something has continued to date doesn't mean it will continue in the future. You are falling for the inevitablist view of history.
    Not at all. I am merely noting that the evidence to date does not support the proposition.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    The government is hoist on its own petard in relation to the strikes. The wildcat strikes, all too often for political purposes, that I remember in the 70s and 80s wound people up and made them hostile to unions. Strikes by those who have voted for them in a democratic process and with a qualifying majority are strikes by the members that the members have voted for. It is their right to withhold their labour and most, even many Tory supporters, would not want a world where that right was taken away.

    The government recognises that so the current bill is at the edges, you can't let people die by withdrawing your labour. But we have all seen ambulance crews leave the picket line for category 1 and 2 calls already. The government is seeking to pick a fight which doesn't exist.

    "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury."
    The Labour party has existed for that purpose for the best part of 100 years and yet we still have a democracy of sorts.
    Not according to the posts of some of your fellow Scots last night!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    DavidL said:

    On-topic:

    I'd expect there would need to be a year or more of sustained strike action before the public get really peeved. At the moment there are other concerns, and many people generally feel sympathetic to the strikers.

    We are already getting to the point where implementation of last year's pay review recommendations is getting tied up with the current year. That offers an opportunity for flexibility on both sides.

    Personally, I do not think that flexibility should come in the form of lump sums or one off payments. The inflation of the last 12 months has changed the nominal standard of living permanently. Inflation will fall sharply this year but there will be no general deflation. A one off payment is an acceptance that those employed will have a permanent fall in their standard of living going forward. Why should they?
    Because government assumes people are stupid enough to accept it ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,869
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B, who remembers the kings of Rome? Perhaps only a few beyond Romulus and Tarquin, but it lasted two and a half centuries.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 11,036
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    The government is hoist on its own petard in relation to the strikes. The wildcat strikes, all too often for political purposes, that I remember in the 70s and 80s wound people up and made them hostile to unions. Strikes by those who have voted for them in a democratic process and with a qualifying majority are strikes by the members that the members have voted for. It is their right to withhold their labour and most, even many Tory supporters, would not want a world where that right was taken away.

    The government recognises that so the current bill is at the edges, you can't let people die by withdrawing your labour. But we have all seen ambulance crews leave the picket line for category 1 and 2 calls already. The government is seeking to pick a fight which doesn't exist.

    "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury."
    Ah for the good old days when the government existed solely for the benefit of the wealthy - the Tories doing their best to bring those days back of course by running down public services and creating barriers to vote.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,880
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On-topic:

    I'd expect there would need to be a year or more of sustained strike action before the public get really peeved. At the moment there are other concerns, and many people generally feel sympathetic to the strikers.

    We are already getting to the point where implementation of last year's pay review recommendations is getting tied up with the current year. That offers an opportunity for flexibility on both sides.

    Personally, I do not think that flexibility should come in the form of lump sums or one off payments. The inflation of the last 12 months has changed the nominal standard of living permanently. Inflation will fall sharply this year but there will be no general deflation. A one off payment is an acceptance that those employed will have a permanent fall in their standard of living going forward. Why should they?
    Because government assumes people are stupid enough to accept it ?
    They might be. Until next year's pay application which will point out how much wages have fallen in real terms. This is where the nurses' 19% came from.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 49,020
    It's the corrosive effects of inflation that are at the heart of all this.

    Inflation damages confidence and investment. It makes everything more expensive, harder to budget for and afford. Expectations of more inflation in future fuels high wage demands, which are resisted due to budgetary pressures, which in turn trigger strikes that damage economic growth. If wage demands are accepted on a grand scale it can lock further inflation into the system - and thus becomes a viscous cycle.

    What we are seeing now is a bit of how stagflation happened in the 70s. It shouldn't be as bad because the economy is now far less unionised and more diversified, we are also more diversified in our energy sources (not just oil) and the legal landscape is different. Were any of that not the case we'd have a repeat, and possibly worse.

    Sunak desperately needs the headline inflation figure to come down (it probably has already peaked in reality) and to use the latest economic figures - already revised - to work out how much extra headroom he's got in the public finances to cut a deal.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 49,020
    Play real Thatcher not fantasy Thatcher.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,880

    It's the corrosive effects of inflation that are at the heart of all this.

    Inflation damages confidence and investment. It makes everything more expensive, harder to budget for and afford. Expectations of more inflation in future fuels high wage demands, which are resisted due to budgetary pressures, which in turn trigger strikes that damage economic growth. If wage demands are accepted on a grand scale it can lock further inflation into the system - and thus becomes a viscous cycle.

    What we are seeing now is a bit of how stagflation happened in the 70s. It shouldn't be as bad because the economy is now far less unionised and more diversified, we are also more diversified in our energy sources (not just oil) and the legal landscape is different. Were any of that not the case we'd have a repeat, and possibly worse.

    Sunak desperately needs the headline inflation figure to come down (it probably has already peaked in reality) and to use the latest economic figures - already revised - to work out how much extra headroom he's got in the public finances to cut a deal.

    More inflation figures out tomorrow. Personally, I suspect that "commentators" will be "surprised" that it has fallen more than expected. The consensus is that it will only fall 0.2% or so. I think it will be more.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    The government is hoist on its own petard in relation to the strikes. The wildcat strikes, all too often for political purposes, that I remember in the 70s and 80s wound people up and made them hostile to unions. Strikes by those who have voted for them in a democratic process and with a qualifying majority are strikes by the members that the members have voted for. It is their right to withhold their labour and most, even many Tory supporters, would not want a world where that right was taken away.

    The government recognises that so the current bill is at the edges, you can't let people die by withdrawing your labour. But we have all seen ambulance crews leave the picket line for category 1 and 2 calls already. The government is seeking to pick a fight which doesn't exist.

    "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury."
    How long do you give it before that old chestnut is finally buried ?
    A couple more centuries ?
    It's not a manual of political science, it's a very imo acute observation of our system of politics. You could define democracy as cannot existing when, say, excess deaths as a result of NHS strike action reach XXX per month, for example. Democracy is certainly not working for those who die on account of strike action.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    DavidL said:

    It's the corrosive effects of inflation that are at the heart of all this.

    Inflation damages confidence and investment. It makes everything more expensive, harder to budget for and afford. Expectations of more inflation in future fuels high wage demands, which are resisted due to budgetary pressures, which in turn trigger strikes that damage economic growth. If wage demands are accepted on a grand scale it can lock further inflation into the system - and thus becomes a viscous cycle.

    What we are seeing now is a bit of how stagflation happened in the 70s. It shouldn't be as bad because the economy is now far less unionised and more diversified, we are also more diversified in our energy sources (not just oil) and the legal landscape is different. Were any of that not the case we'd have a repeat, and possibly worse.

    Sunak desperately needs the headline inflation figure to come down (it probably has already peaked in reality) and to use the latest economic figures - already revised - to work out how much extra headroom he's got in the public finances to cut a deal.

    More inflation figures out tomorrow. Personally, I suspect that "commentators" will be "surprised" that it has fallen more than expected. The consensus is that it will only fall 0.2% or so. I think it will be more.
    There’s a good chance of inflation actually dropping right off in the next few months, as a lot of prices are now actually falling that spiked last spring. Domestic energy and cars, to give two high-profile examples of large items experiencing negative inflation. Property prices will also start falling as interest rate rises feed though.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 49,020

    On-topic:

    I'd expect there would need to be a year or more of sustained strike action before the public get really peeved. At the moment there are other concerns, and many people generally feel sympathetic to the strikers.

    I'd like to know who all these people are who are misty-eyed about train drivers.

    Sympathy for NHS nurses is widespread but I'm yet to find any colleague who has something printable to say about ASLEF or the RMT.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    The government is hoist on its own petard in relation to the strikes. The wildcat strikes, all too often for political purposes, that I remember in the 70s and 80s wound people up and made them hostile to unions. Strikes by those who have voted for them in a democratic process and with a qualifying majority are strikes by the members that the members have voted for. It is their right to withhold their labour and most, even many Tory supporters, would not want a world where that right was taken away.

    The government recognises that so the current bill is at the edges, you can't let people die by withdrawing your labour. But we have all seen ambulance crews leave the picket line for category 1 and 2 calls already. The government is seeking to pick a fight which doesn't exist.

    "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury."
    Ah for the good old days when the government existed solely for the benefit of the wealthy - the Tories doing their best to bring those days back of course by running down public services and creating barriers to vote.
    Well we are talking about democracy. The voters voted in the Tory Party. A bit like the frog and the scorpion what did they expect?

    And consistently over the past few decades the UK public has shown that it has no interest in an increased tax burden for the sake of health, education, whatnot. It prefers to lurch from overshoot to overshoot with successive governments or every few elections. eg - spending run down in 1997; no money left in 2010, and so on...
  • Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    DavidL said:

    It's the corrosive effects of inflation that are at the heart of all this.

    Inflation damages confidence and investment. It makes everything more expensive, harder to budget for and afford. Expectations of more inflation in future fuels high wage demands, which are resisted due to budgetary pressures, which in turn trigger strikes that damage economic growth. If wage demands are accepted on a grand scale it can lock further inflation into the system - and thus becomes a viscous cycle.

    What we are seeing now is a bit of how stagflation happened in the 70s. It shouldn't be as bad because the economy is now far less unionised and more diversified, we are also more diversified in our energy sources (not just oil) and the legal landscape is different. Were any of that not the case we'd have a repeat, and possibly worse.

    Sunak desperately needs the headline inflation figure to come down (it probably has already peaked in reality) and to use the latest economic figures - already revised - to work out how much extra headroom he's got in the public finances to cut a deal.

    More inflation figures out tomorrow. Personally, I suspect that "commentators" will be "surprised" that it has fallen more than expected. The consensus is that it will only fall 0.2% or so. I think it will be more.
    Though the cutting of most of the government's energy price support in the spring is likely to create another spike, even though the price of gas has fallen significantly.

    I liked Casino's viscous cycle; inflation is indeed sticky.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    It's the corrosive effects of inflation that are at the heart of all this.

    Inflation damages confidence and investment. It makes everything more expensive, harder to budget for and afford. Expectations of more inflation in future fuels high wage demands, which are resisted due to budgetary pressures, which in turn trigger strikes that damage economic growth. If wage demands are accepted on a grand scale it can lock further inflation into the system - and thus becomes a viscous cycle.

    What we are seeing now is a bit of how stagflation happened in the 70s. It shouldn't be as bad because the economy is now far less unionised and more diversified, we are also more diversified in our energy sources (not just oil) and the legal landscape is different. Were any of that not the case we'd have a repeat, and possibly worse.

    Sunak desperately needs the headline inflation figure to come down (it probably has already peaked in reality) and to use the latest economic figures - already revised - to work out how much extra headroom he's got in the public finances to cut a deal.

    More inflation figures out tomorrow. Personally, I suspect that "commentators" will be "surprised" that it has fallen more than expected. The consensus is that it will only fall 0.2% or so. I think it will be more.
    There’s a good chance of inflation actually dropping right off in the next few months, as a lot of prices are now actually falling that spiked last spring. Domestic energy and cars, to give two high-profile examples of large items experiencing negative inflation. Property prices will also start falling as interest rate rises feed though.
    Haven’t noticed food prices dropping though.
  • On topic, I'm glad the government are sorting out the train strikes first, absolutely essential for me that.

    Screw the medical profession.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078
    edited January 17

    On-topic:

    I'd expect there would need to be a year or more of sustained strike action before the public get really peeved. At the moment there are other concerns, and many people generally feel sympathetic to the strikers.

    A lot of the general public will be struggling themselves or know people who are struggling and many probably wish they could do something about it themselves but they aren’t in a position to do so.

    Slightly off topic but Mrs Eek has joined unison for the first time after 30 years because the next set of local authority cutbacks look likely to hit the legally required but slightly less legally required than social care planning departments.

    Any pretence of hitting application target time frames have been binned by virtually everyone.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    No, it won't. This is entirely different

    The Tories are rightly opposing a lunacy we will all come to regret
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 313
    I think there should be a Minimum Services Level Bill, but for MPs. It should include paying your taxes in full, not getting kickbacks for your mates, not breaking your own laws, not having sex with your staff. And not going on holiday and missing work. Yes, definitely that.
  • Leon said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    No, it won't. This is entirely different

    The Tories are rightly opposing a lunacy we will all come to regret
    Yes you are Dame Jill Knight and I claim my fiver.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    It's the corrosive effects of inflation that are at the heart of all this.

    Inflation damages confidence and investment. It makes everything more expensive, harder to budget for and afford. Expectations of more inflation in future fuels high wage demands, which are resisted due to budgetary pressures, which in turn trigger strikes that damage economic growth. If wage demands are accepted on a grand scale it can lock further inflation into the system - and thus becomes a viscous cycle.

    What we are seeing now is a bit of how stagflation happened in the 70s. It shouldn't be as bad because the economy is now far less unionised and more diversified, we are also more diversified in our energy sources (not just oil) and the legal landscape is different. Were any of that not the case we'd have a repeat, and possibly worse.

    Sunak desperately needs the headline inflation figure to come down (it probably has already peaked in reality) and to use the latest economic figures - already revised - to work out how much extra headroom he's got in the public finances to cut a deal.

    More inflation figures out tomorrow. Personally, I suspect that "commentators" will be "surprised" that it has fallen more than expected. The consensus is that it will only fall 0.2% or so. I think it will be more.
    There’s a good chance of inflation actually dropping right off in the next few months, as a lot of prices are now actually falling that spiked last spring. Domestic energy and cars, to give two high-profile examples of large items experiencing negative inflation. Property prices will also start falling as interest rate rises feed though.
    Haven’t noticed food prices dropping though.
    Food prices will drop once the orcs have been removed from Ukraine. Send tanks.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 49,020
    DavidL said:

    It's the corrosive effects of inflation that are at the heart of all this.

    Inflation damages confidence and investment. It makes everything more expensive, harder to budget for and afford. Expectations of more inflation in future fuels high wage demands, which are resisted due to budgetary pressures, which in turn trigger strikes that damage economic growth. If wage demands are accepted on a grand scale it can lock further inflation into the system - and thus becomes a viscous cycle.

    What we are seeing now is a bit of how stagflation happened in the 70s. It shouldn't be as bad because the economy is now far less unionised and more diversified, we are also more diversified in our energy sources (not just oil) and the legal landscape is different. Were any of that not the case we'd have a repeat, and possibly worse.

    Sunak desperately needs the headline inflation figure to come down (it probably has already peaked in reality) and to use the latest economic figures - already revised - to work out how much extra headroom he's got in the public finances to cut a deal.

    More inflation figures out tomorrow. Personally, I suspect that "commentators" will be "surprised" that it has fallen more than expected. The consensus is that it will only fall 0.2% or so. I think it will be more.
    It's much safer to herd.

    Who wants to take a risk on an outlier with the focus on you if it's wrong and then look all exposed and foolish?

    Much safer for you and your business to cluster and then say everyone got it wrong for reasons.

    I always remember Martin 'Kaboom' Boon (who i think i relentlessly took the piss out of at the time) who suppressed the 37% ICM poll rating for the Conservatives in the run up to GE2015, but I'd probably have blinked too.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    edited January 17

    Leon said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    No, it won't. This is entirely different

    The Tories are rightly opposing a lunacy we will all come to regret
    Yes you are Dame Jill Knight and I claim my fiver.
    The headlong pursuit of this genderfluid insanity is more akin to the attempt to normalise pedophilia in the 1970s than the righteous fight for gay and abortion rights in the 60s-70s

    Not all "apparently progressive movements" are for the good
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    So not old enough to vote, buy cigarettes or alcohol, drive a car, sign a legal document, get a mortgage - yet old enough to make such a life-altering decision?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Today's ONS.

    After taking inflation into account, average pay fell by 2.6% in the year to September to November 2022, both including and excluding bonuses.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/ONS/status/1615243603785170947
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078
    Sandpit said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    So not old enough to vote, buy cigarettes or alcohol, drive a car, sign a legal document, get a mortgage - yet old enough to make such a life-altering decision?
    To make an even more (permanent) life-altering decision…
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,869
    Football: just an aside, but there's a quirk I noticed just now when putting together a team locations list (which I should've done earlier). The EPL has far and away the biggest home advantage of the five top ones in Europe, but also the most local derbies (mostly due to London, but also Liverpool and Manchester having multiple teams). The next closest, Madrid, has three teams, just under half London's seven.

    Local derbies decrease the odds on a home win. But that makes the high home advantage of the EPL (more than half the sides have at least one other local team) even stranger.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637

    Football: just an aside, but there's a quirk I noticed just now when putting together a team locations list (which I should've done earlier). The EPL has far and away the biggest home advantage of the five top ones in Europe, but also the most local derbies (mostly due to London, but also Liverpool and Manchester having multiple teams). The next closest, Madrid, has three teams, just under half London's seven.

    Local derbies decrease the odds on a home win. But that makes the high home advantage of the EPL (more than half the sides have at least one other local team) even stranger.

    Bigger, more vivid crowds, with longer, more resonant club histories? - would be my guess

    That is, after all, what successfully sells the EPL around the world. The passion and the history

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,798
    Leon said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    No, it won't. This is entirely different

    The Tories are rightly opposing a lunacy we will all come to regret
    From a pure politics perspective, in the short-term it might be effective at targeting middle-class, middle-aged women who are such an important voting demographic. Shoring up support in the face of a Labour landslide.

    Long-term = ???. Women of my generation are highly supportive, if my friends are anything to go by.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    It's just a core vote retention strategy. They can't do anything about Cozzie Livs so they'll settle for some transphobic shit to keep the gammons slightly less livid than usual.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 49,020

    I think there should be a Minimum Services Level Bill, but for MPs. It should include paying your taxes in full, not getting kickbacks for your mates, not breaking your own laws, not having sex with your staff. And not going on holiday and missing work. Yes, definitely that.

    If sex with staff was prohibited then a lot of people wouldn't have met their lifelong partners.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,869
    Mr. Leon, possibly.

    Annoyingly, I lost some other (time-consuming) statistical work I'd done on home advantage for leagues in given seasons. The lowest in the last three years or so was a Bundesliga home win rate of just 38% in one year.

    Mr. Ace, either that or the SNP have deliberately stepped beyond the bounds of their authority to provoke a row.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503

    Football: just an aside, but there's a quirk I noticed just now when putting together a team locations list (which I should've done earlier). The EPL has far and away the biggest home advantage of the five top ones in Europe, but also the most local derbies (mostly due to London, but also Liverpool and Manchester having multiple teams). The next closest, Madrid, has three teams, just under half London's seven.

    Local derbies decrease the odds on a home win. But that makes the high home advantage of the EPL (more than half the sides have at least one other local team) even stranger.

    Was there not some research during tha pandemic, that suggested home advantage was reversed when matches were played behind closed doors? In other words, the crowd really can be the 12th man for the home team.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    Sandpit said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    So not old enough to vote, buy cigarettes or alcohol, drive a car, sign a legal document, get a mortgage - yet old enough to make such a life-altering decision?
    On a point if pedantry - they are old enough to vote in Scotland.

    They are however no longer allowed to get married.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 49,020
    eek said:

    On-topic:

    I'd expect there would need to be a year or more of sustained strike action before the public get really peeved. At the moment there are other concerns, and many people generally feel sympathetic to the strikers.

    A lot of the general public will be struggling themselves or know people who are struggling and many probably wish they could do something about it themselves but they aren’t in a position to do so.

    Slightly off topic but Mrs Eek has joined unison for the first time after 30 years because the next set of local authority cutbacks look likely to hit the legally required but slightly less legally required than social care planning departments.

    Any pretence of hitting application target time frames have been binned by virtually everyone.
    I haven't ever worked directly in it myself but i have worked alongside plenty and, despite the regular hours (by and large), I think I'd hate working in the public sector.

    Modest pay, with even more modest increases, rather repetitive and bureaucratic work, infuriatingly mediocre people, sticky and slow career progression, and appalling management. Rules for everything.

    A good pension and "not my job" rights isn't enough to tempt me for that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    No, it won't. This is entirely different

    The Tories are rightly opposing a lunacy we will all come to regret
    From a pure politics perspective, in the short-term it might be effective at targeting middle-class, middle-aged women who are such an important voting demographic. Shoring up support in the face of a Labour landslide.

    Long-term = ???. Women of my generation are highly supportive, if my friends are anything to go by.
    Absolutely the opposite in my experience. The majority of women I know - from 25-80 - dislike the extreme trans stuff and abhor the idea of self ID and sex change before 18. They manage to do this without being "transphobic" - they fully support the idea of a trans person transitioning as an adult

    Hell, even my actual trans woman friend - who had gender reassignment surgery decades back - vigorously questions the implications of the GRAct in Scotland and despairs of the radical trans activists
  • Mr. Leon, possibly.

    Annoyingly, I lost some other (time-consuming) statistical work I'd done on home advantage for leagues in given seasons. The lowest in the last three years or so was a Bundesliga home win rate of just 38% in one year.

    Mr. Ace, either that or the SNP have deliberately stepped beyond the bounds of their authority to provoke a row.

    Could very easily be both the Conservatives and the SNP seeking to provoke a row to please their core votes.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    So not old enough to vote, buy cigarettes or alcohol, drive a car, sign a legal document, get a mortgage - yet old enough to make such a life-altering decision?
    On a point if pedantry - they are old enough to vote in Scotland.

    They are however no longer allowed to get married.
    Oh, so Gretna Green is no longer the wedding venue of choice for young elopers?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 8,689
    edited January 17
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    No, it won't. This is entirely different

    The Tories are rightly opposing a lunacy we will all come to regret
    From a pure politics perspective, in the short-term it might be effective at targeting middle-class, middle-aged women who are such an important voting demographic. Shoring up support in the face of a Labour landslide.

    Long-term = ???. Women of my generation are highly supportive, if my friends are anything to go by.
    Is there any polling on the age profile of opinions on the subject. I assume it's the same steep gradient and mutual incomprehension as everything else right now.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,798
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    No, it won't. This is entirely different

    The Tories are rightly opposing a lunacy we will all come to regret
    From a pure politics perspective, in the short-term it might be effective at targeting middle-class, middle-aged women who are such an important voting demographic. Shoring up support in the face of a Labour landslide.

    Long-term = ???. Women of my generation are highly supportive, if my friends are anything to go by.
    Absolutely the opposite in my experience. The majority of women I know - from 25-80 - dislike the extreme trans stuff and abhor the idea of self ID and sex change before 18. They manage to do this without being "transphobic" - they fully support the idea of a trans person transitioning as an adult

    Hell, even my actual trans woman friend - who had gender reassignment surgery decades back - vigorously questions the implications of the GRAct in Scotland and despairs of the radical trans activists
    Fair enough - and that general view is supported by the polls.

    I'm talking specifically about 25 - 30, who are the people I chat with. Might be a symptom of those who disagree being scared to speak up though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825
    Dura_Ace said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    It's just a core vote retention strategy. They can't do anything about Cozzie Livs so they'll settle for some transphobic shit to keep the gammons slightly less livid than usual.
    When a new slang breaks out for the "Cost of Living" then we know it is not a bubble issue. I have seen and heard Cozzie Livs used a few times since Christmas.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,052

    eek said:

    On-topic:

    I'd expect there would need to be a year or more of sustained strike action before the public get really peeved. At the moment there are other concerns, and many people generally feel sympathetic to the strikers.

    A lot of the general public will be struggling themselves or know people who are struggling and many probably wish they could do something about it themselves but they aren’t in a position to do so.

    Slightly off topic but Mrs Eek has joined unison for the first time after 30 years because the next set of local authority cutbacks look likely to hit the legally required but slightly less legally required than social care planning departments.

    Any pretence of hitting application target time frames have been binned by virtually everyone.
    I haven't ever worked directly in it myself but i have worked alongside plenty and, despite the regular hours (by and large), I think I'd hate working in the public sector.

    Modest pay, with even more modest increases, rather repetitive and bureaucratic work, infuriatingly mediocre people, sticky and slow career progression, and appalling management. Rules for everything.

    A good pension and "not my job" rights isn't enough to tempt me for that.
    The "mediocre" is a real Telegraph caricature. Like all caricatures, it can be born out by a minority of individuals, but mostly I find public service staff rather more dedicated and committed to making a special effort than in other sectors. I do agree that you can move up the ladder faster in many private sector firms.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,818
    Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.

    https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/TG*1

    Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,769
    Nigelb said:

    Today's ONS.

    After taking inflation into account, average pay fell by 2.6% in the year to September to November 2022, both including and excluding bonuses.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/ONS/status/1615243603785170947

    How the FT are tweeting it:

    Breaking news: UK wages grew at the fastest rate seen outside the pandemic period at the end of 2022 https://on.ft.com/3COqQo7


    https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1615257068927156224
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    No, it won't. This is entirely different

    The Tories are rightly opposing a lunacy we will all come to regret
    From a pure politics perspective, in the short-term it might be effective at targeting middle-class, middle-aged women who are such an important voting demographic. Shoring up support in the face of a Labour landslide.

    Long-term = ???. Women of my generation are highly supportive, if my friends are anything to go by.
    Absolutely the opposite in my experience. The majority of women I know - from 25-80 - dislike the extreme trans stuff and abhor the idea of self ID and sex change before 18. They manage to do this without being "transphobic" - they fully support the idea of a trans person transitioning as an adult

    Hell, even my actual trans woman friend - who had gender reassignment surgery decades back - vigorously questions the implications of the GRAct in Scotland and despairs of the radical trans activists
    Fair enough - and that general view is supported by the polls.

    I'm talking specifically about 25 - 30, who are the people I chat with. Might be a symptom of those who disagree being scared to speak up though.
    It would be a brave person (!) who articulated just about any view about the trans issue.

    We might do it on here because we are largely anonymous and no one would raise their eyebrows or put in a complaint (cf mate of mine - yes I know - who was addressing the new board of the company he had just sold was told he had committed a "minor aggression" for calling the whole meeting "guys").

    Plus it's complicated. Self ID at 16 live a life of happiness and contentment; self ID at 16 regret it years later. Who the fuck knows or can tell.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    The simple solution is that there is only one sex - which we shall call Ugg - until the age of 25.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    No, it won't. This is entirely different

    The Tories are rightly opposing a lunacy we will all come to regret
    From a pure politics perspective, in the short-term it might be effective at targeting middle-class, middle-aged women who are such an important voting demographic. Shoring up support in the face of a Labour landslide.

    Long-term = ???. Women of my generation are highly supportive, if my friends are anything to go by.
    Absolutely the opposite in my experience. The majority of women I know - from 25-80 - dislike the extreme trans stuff and abhor the idea of self ID and sex change before 18. They manage to do this without being "transphobic" - they fully support the idea of a trans person transitioning as an adult

    Hell, even my actual trans woman friend - who had gender reassignment surgery decades back - vigorously questions the implications of the GRAct in Scotland and despairs of the radical trans activists
    Fair enough - and that general view is supported by the polls.

    I'm talking specifically about 25 - 30, who are the people I chat with. Might be a symptom of those who disagree being scared to speak up though.
    There is definitely social pressure to conform to the more radical trans nuttery for people under 30

    For kids 15-25 they actually believe it, in a vague way, as they have grown up with it. They will grow out of it, and look back in horror. But a lot of damage will have been done, by then

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002

    Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.

    https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/TG*1

    Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.

    Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    So not old enough to vote, buy cigarettes or alcohol, drive a car, sign a legal document, get a mortgage - yet old enough to make such a life-altering decision?
    On a point if pedantry - they are old enough to vote in Scotland.

    They are however no longer allowed to get married.
    Oh, so Gretna Green is no longer the wedding venue of choice for young elopers?
    It's UK-wide!

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/implementation-of-the-marriage-and-civil-partnership-minimum-age-act-2022

    Although I note it doesn't actually come into effect until next month, so technically 16 year olds can still get married.

    There seems to me to be something faintly bizarre about a culture that raises the age of marriage and lowers the age of gender conversion, but then many things about our current mob of politicians strike me as bizarre.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    No, it won't. This is entirely different

    The Tories are rightly opposing a lunacy we will all come to regret
    From a pure politics perspective, in the short-term it might be effective at targeting middle-class, middle-aged women who are such an important voting demographic. Shoring up support in the face of a Labour landslide.

    Long-term = ???. Women of my generation are highly supportive, if my friends are anything to go by.
    Absolutely the opposite in my experience. The majority of women I know - from 25-80 - dislike the extreme trans stuff and abhor the idea of self ID and sex change before 18. They manage to do this without being "transphobic" - they fully support the idea of a trans person transitioning as an adult

    Hell, even my actual trans woman friend - who had gender reassignment surgery decades back - vigorously questions the implications of the GRAct in Scotland and despairs of the radical trans activists
    Fair enough - and that general view is supported by the polls.

    I'm talking specifically about 25 - 30, who are the people I chat with. Might be a symptom of those who disagree being scared to speak up though.
    It would be a brave person (!) who articulated just about any view about the trans issue.

    We might do it on here because we are largely anonymous and no one would raise their eyebrows or put in a complaint (cf mate of mine - yes I know - who was addressing the new board of the company he had just sold was told he had committed a "minor aggression" for calling the whole meeting "guys").

    Plus it's complicated. Self ID at 16 live a life of happiness and contentment; self ID at 16 regret it years later. Who the fuck knows or can tell.
    Self ID at 16 can be reversed. It is less harmful.

    It is the surgery and the puberty blockers and the rest which are abominable, when given to actual children
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    rcs1000 said:

    Gas prices falling (Amsterdam futures); at 55 from a high of 340-odd in August. Below where it was in early February last year, *but* two or three times greater than it was five years ago.

    https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/TG*1

    Interesting that the price rises started in 2020 or 2021.

    Warm winter plus full storage will do that.
    Although today I have just noticed thick ice on the car windscreen, which is annoying.

    (Usually it would be in the garage, but I'm storing some furniture from my Dad's house there until I can sell it and there isn't room for both!)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264

    eek said:

    On-topic:

    I'd expect there would need to be a year or more of sustained strike action before the public get really peeved. At the moment there are other concerns, and many people generally feel sympathetic to the strikers.

    A lot of the general public will be struggling themselves or know people who are struggling and many probably wish they could do something about it themselves but they aren’t in a position to do so.

    Slightly off topic but Mrs Eek has joined unison for the first time after 30 years because the next set of local authority cutbacks look likely to hit the legally required but slightly less legally required than social care planning departments.

    Any pretence of hitting application target time frames have been binned by virtually everyone.
    I haven't ever worked directly in it myself but i have worked alongside plenty and, despite the regular hours (by and large), I think I'd hate working in the public sector.

    Modest pay, with even more modest increases, rather repetitive and bureaucratic work, infuriatingly mediocre people, sticky and slow career progression, and appalling management. Rules for everything.

    A good pension and "not my job" rights isn't enough to tempt me for that.
    The "mediocre" is a real Telegraph caricature. Like all caricatures, it can be born out by a minority of individuals, but mostly I find public service staff rather more dedicated and committed to making a special effort than in other sectors. I do agree that you can move up the ladder faster in many private sector firms.
    The test case is the large IT outsourcing contracts.

    The benefits office in Newcastle outsourced to EDS, but some staff were TUPEd in on their existing terms.

    The civil servants were unionised, negotiated pay deals and slow career progression, but wanted their final salary pensions.

    The EDS staff had higher pay, faster promotion, but will never have the same pension rights.

    Both sides seemed happy enough with their deal.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,052
    Interesting survey showing nuanced attitudes to the war - Spain is singled out in the heading but the overall EU picture is similar, except for Netherlands and Poland (and I assume the Baltic States though they're not mentioned). It does show why Scholtz is moving carefully, with public support for supplying arms but not keen on a long war if necessary to regain every inch of territory claimed by Ukraine (even in Poland it's only a plurality in favour). It's obviously not up to the general non-Ukrainian public to decide, but important as it will influence politicians over time if the war drags on inconclusively.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/half-of-spaniards-okay-with-ukraine-losing-some-land/?utm_source=piano&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=28390&pnespid=rOduDj9HML0FgfCf_DrqE5iQvEquRp1nIuWkmbsw.hxmQHI4DJckG_bxtdEZldGR2_zM_.Jj3A

    https://euroskopia.com/europeans-divided-about-ukraine-quick-end-despite-territorial-cost/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,769

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    Old enough to give informed consent to this?

    One mutilated, lopped-off, scarred girl is too many.
    #topsurgery is mastectomy for psychosocial disturbance, which girls mostly grow out of



    https://twitter.com/GChristiemd/status/1613953027852963857


  • eekeek Posts: 22,078

    eek said:

    On-topic:

    I'd expect there would need to be a year or more of sustained strike action before the public get really peeved. At the moment there are other concerns, and many people generally feel sympathetic to the strikers.

    A lot of the general public will be struggling themselves or know people who are struggling and many probably wish they could do something about it themselves but they aren’t in a position to do so.

    Slightly off topic but Mrs Eek has joined unison for the first time after 30 years because the next set of local authority cutbacks look likely to hit the legally required but slightly less legally required than social care planning departments.

    Any pretence of hitting application target time frames have been binned by virtually everyone.
    I haven't ever worked directly in it myself but i have worked alongside plenty and, despite the regular hours (by and large), I think I'd hate working in the public sector.

    Modest pay, with even more modest increases, rather repetitive and bureaucratic work, infuriatingly mediocre people, sticky and slow career progression, and appalling management. Rules for everything.

    A good pension and "not my job" rights isn't enough to tempt me for that.
    Having worked on projects across both the public and private sector - it's way more likely that the "not my job" types are in the private sector.

    The public sector ones I've encountered are more likely to be - I don't know how to do that or see Dave (as they point to someone in the corner who holds the entire department together with some excel and a lot of anguish).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    edited January 17
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    No, it won't. This is entirely different

    The Tories are rightly opposing a lunacy we will all come to regret
    From a pure politics perspective, in the short-term it might be effective at targeting middle-class, middle-aged women who are such an important voting demographic. Shoring up support in the face of a Labour landslide.

    Long-term = ???. Women of my generation are highly supportive, if my friends are anything to go by.
    Absolutely the opposite in my experience. The majority of women I know - from 25-80 - dislike the extreme trans stuff and abhor the idea of self ID and sex change before 18. They manage to do this without being "transphobic" - they fully support the idea of a trans person transitioning as an adult

    Hell, even my actual trans woman friend - who had gender reassignment surgery decades back - vigorously questions the implications of the GRAct in Scotland and despairs of the radical trans activists
    Fair enough - and that general view is supported by the polls.

    I'm talking specifically about 25 - 30, who are the people I chat with. Might be a symptom of those who disagree being scared to speak up though.
    It would be a brave person (!) who articulated just about any view about the trans issue.

    We might do it on here because we are largely anonymous and no one would raise their eyebrows or put in a complaint (cf mate of mine - yes I know - who was addressing the new board of the company he had just sold was told he had committed a "minor aggression" for calling the whole meeting "guys").

    Plus it's complicated. Self ID at 16 live a life of happiness and contentment; self ID at 16 regret it years later. Who the fuck knows or can tell.
    Self ID at 16 can be reversed. It is less harmful.

    It is the surgery and the puberty blockers and the rest which are abominable, when given to actual children
    Yes well I was throwing that in as part of the package. And I believe the UN* defines "actual children" as it relates to Child Soldiers in Africa as those below 18.

    *Edit: According to the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 3,023
    kamski said:

    Nick Cave responds to a song written by chatgpt in the style of Nick Cave:
    https://www.theredhandfiles.com/chat-gpt-what-do-you-think/

    "What ChatGPT is, in this instance, is replication as travesty. ChatGPT may be able to write a speech or an essay or a sermon or an obituary but it cannot create a genuine song. It could perhaps in time create a song that is, on the surface, indistinguishable from an original, but it will always be a replication, a kind of burlesque.

    Songs arise out of suffering, by which I mean they are predicated upon the complex, internal human struggle of creation and, well, as far as I know, algorithms don’t feel. Data doesn’t suffer. ChatGPT has no inner being, it has been nowhere, it has endured nothing, it has not had the audacity to reach beyond its limitations, and hence it doesn’t have the capacity for a shared transcendent experience, as it has no limitations from which to transcend. ChatGPT’s melancholy role is that it is destined to imitate and can never have an authentic human experience, no matter how devalued and inconsequential the human experience may in time become.

    What makes a great song great is not its close resemblance to a recognizable work. Writing a good song is not mimicry, or replication, or pastiche, it is the opposite. It is an act of self-murder that destroys all one has strived to produce in the past. It is those dangerous, heart-stopping departures that catapult the artist beyond the limits of what he or she recognises as their known self. This is part of the authentic creative struggle that precedes the invention of a unique lyric of actual value; it is the breathless confrontation with one’s vulnerability, one’s perilousness, one’s smallness, pitted against a sense of sudden shocking discovery; it is the redemptive artistic act that stirs the heart of the listener, where the listener recognizes in the inner workings of the song their own blood, their own struggle, their own suffering. This is what we humble humans can offer, that AI can only mimic, the transcendent journey of the artist that forever grapples with his or her own shortcomings. This is where human genius resides, deeply embedded within, yet reaching beyond, those limitations."

    I think I would enjoy obituaries written by Nick Cave.

    I asked ChatGPT to write an obituary of Margaret Thatcher in the style of Nick Cave, but it wouldn't without changing the name to avoid being disrespectful. It came up with this, which is truly shit, - only the disclaimer at the end is funny:

    "She came like a storm, a force to be reckoned with
    Martha Tiler, the Iron Will, our Prime Minister
    She divided us, with her policies so strict
    But her leadership, you couldn't help but predict

    She privatized, she unionized, she went to war
    She changed the nation, forevermore
    But now her time has come, her reign is through
    Martha Tiler, our divisive leader, we bid adieu

    She was the Red Right Hand, of British politics
    A Mercy Seat, for some, a curse for others
    Into the Arms, of history she'll be
    Where the Wild Roses Grow, her legacy

    But now The Weeping Song, echoes through the land
    For a leader who, with a iron hand, lead this nation
    But now she's gone, and we're left to mourn
    Martha Tiler, forever in our hearts, will be reborn.

    Please note that this is a fictional example and it is not to be taken as a real obituary of any person living or dead, this is a form of creative writing and also, it's not meant to be disrespectful in any way."
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 49,020

    eek said:

    On-topic:

    I'd expect there would need to be a year or more of sustained strike action before the public get really peeved. At the moment there are other concerns, and many people generally feel sympathetic to the strikers.

    A lot of the general public will be struggling themselves or know people who are struggling and many probably wish they could do something about it themselves but they aren’t in a position to do so.

    Slightly off topic but Mrs Eek has joined unison for the first time after 30 years because the next set of local authority cutbacks look likely to hit the legally required but slightly less legally required than social care planning departments.

    Any pretence of hitting application target time frames have been binned by virtually everyone.
    I haven't ever worked directly in it myself but i have worked alongside plenty and, despite the regular hours (by and large), I think I'd hate working in the public sector.

    Modest pay, with even more modest increases, rather repetitive and bureaucratic work, infuriatingly mediocre people, sticky and slow career progression, and appalling management. Rules for everything.

    A good pension and "not my job" rights isn't enough to tempt me for that.
    The "mediocre" is a real Telegraph caricature. Like all caricatures, it can be born out by a minority of individuals, but mostly I find public service staff rather more dedicated and committed to making a special effort than in other sectors. I do agree that you can move up the ladder faster in many private sector firms.
    I'm referring to my own personal experience of working in and with Cabinet Office, planning authorities and councils.

    There are very good people, but they are the outliers, and plenty of very average ones climb to the top and grab MBEs and OBEs with awful behaviours.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 49,020
    rcs1000 said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    The simple solution is that there is only one sex - which we shall call Ugg - until the age of 25.
    Eww.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,052
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    No, it won't. This is entirely different

    The Tories are rightly opposing a lunacy we will all come to regret
    From a pure politics perspective, in the short-term it might be effective at targeting middle-class, middle-aged women who are such an important voting demographic. Shoring up support in the face of a Labour landslide.

    Long-term = ???. Women of my generation are highly supportive, if my friends are anything to go by.
    Do you discuss it much? I have one friend who is very anti-GRA for feminist reasons ("we're fought so hard to have our identity respected, now adult men feel they can just claim it"), but literally nobody else ever mentions it, although they talk about lots of other political issues. I suspect there are 5-10% who feel strongly on both sides, and 80-90% who don't give it a thought. Perhaps it's different in Scotland because the GRA is so high-profile?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    The simple solution is that there is only one sex - which we shall call Ugg - until the age of 25.
    Eww.
    I think gendering everyone as Ugg is an idea we should quickly boot out.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Nick Cave responds to a song written by chatgpt in the style of Nick Cave:
    https://www.theredhandfiles.com/chat-gpt-what-do-you-think/

    "What ChatGPT is, in this instance, is replication as travesty. ChatGPT may be able to write a speech or an essay or a sermon or an obituary but it cannot create a genuine song. It could perhaps in time create a song that is, on the surface, indistinguishable from an original, but it will always be a replication, a kind of burlesque.

    Songs arise out of suffering, by which I mean they are predicated upon the complex, internal human struggle of creation and, well, as far as I know, algorithms don’t feel. Data doesn’t suffer. ChatGPT has no inner being, it has been nowhere, it has endured nothing, it has not had the audacity to reach beyond its limitations, and hence it doesn’t have the capacity for a shared transcendent experience, as it has no limitations from which to transcend. ChatGPT’s melancholy role is that it is destined to imitate and can never have an authentic human experience, no matter how devalued and inconsequential the human experience may in time become.

    What makes a great song great is not its close resemblance to a recognizable work. Writing a good song is not mimicry, or replication, or pastiche, it is the opposite. It is an act of self-murder that destroys all one has strived to produce in the past. It is those dangerous, heart-stopping departures that catapult the artist beyond the limits of what he or she recognises as their known self. This is part of the authentic creative struggle that precedes the invention of a unique lyric of actual value; it is the breathless confrontation with one’s vulnerability, one’s perilousness, one’s smallness, pitted against a sense of sudden shocking discovery; it is the redemptive artistic act that stirs the heart of the listener, where the listener recognizes in the inner workings of the song their own blood, their own struggle, their own suffering. This is what we humble humans can offer, that AI can only mimic, the transcendent journey of the artist that forever grapples with his or her own shortcomings. This is where human genius resides, deeply embedded within, yet reaching beyond, those limitations."

    I think I would enjoy obituaries written by Nick Cave.

    I asked ChatGPT to write an obituary of Margaret Thatcher in the style of Nick Cave, but it wouldn't without changing the name to avoid being disrespectful. It came up with this, which is truly shit, - only the disclaimer at the end is funny:

    "She came like a storm, a force to be reckoned with
    Martha Tiler, the Iron Will, our Prime Minister
    She divided us, with her policies so strict
    But her leadership, you couldn't help but predict

    She privatized, she unionized, she went to war
    She changed the nation, forevermore
    But now her time has come, her reign is through
    Martha Tiler, our divisive leader, we bid adieu

    She was the Red Right Hand, of British politics
    A Mercy Seat, for some, a curse for others
    Into the Arms, of history she'll be
    Where the Wild Roses Grow, her legacy

    But now The Weeping Song, echoes through the land
    For a leader who, with a iron hand, lead this nation
    But now she's gone, and we're left to mourn
    Martha Tiler, forever in our hearts, will be reborn.

    Please note that this is a fictional example and it is not to be taken as a real obituary of any person living or dead, this is a form of creative writing and also, it's not meant to be disrespectful in any way."
    So Nick Cave is complaining that ChatGPT, which is a machine, is a machine?

    lol
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    No, it won't. This is entirely different

    The Tories are rightly opposing a lunacy we will all come to regret
    From a pure politics perspective, in the short-term it might be effective at targeting middle-class, middle-aged women who are such an important voting demographic. Shoring up support in the face of a Labour landslide.

    Long-term = ???. Women of my generation are highly supportive, if my friends are anything to go by.
    Absolutely the opposite in my experience. The majority of women I know - from 25-80 - dislike the extreme trans stuff and abhor the idea of self ID and sex change before 18. They manage to do this without being "transphobic" - they fully support the idea of a trans person transitioning as an adult

    Hell, even my actual trans woman friend - who had gender reassignment surgery decades back - vigorously questions the implications of the GRAct in Scotland and despairs of the radical trans activists
    Fair enough - and that general view is supported by the polls.

    I'm talking specifically about 25 - 30, who are the people I chat with. Might be a symptom of those who disagree being scared to speak up though.
    It would be a brave person (!) who articulated just about any view about the trans issue.

    We might do it on here because we are largely anonymous and no one would raise their eyebrows or put in a complaint (cf mate of mine - yes I know - who was addressing the new board of the company he had just sold was told he had committed a "minor aggression" for calling the whole meeting "guys").

    Plus it's complicated. Self ID at 16 live a life of happiness and contentment; self ID at 16 regret it years later. Who the fuck knows or can tell.
    Self ID at 16 can be reversed. It is less harmful.

    It is the surgery and the puberty blockers and the rest which are abominable, when given to actual children
    Yes well I was throwing that in as part of the package. And I believe the UN can define "actual children" as those below 18 (or it does for combatants in Africa).
    The various Children’s Acts in the UK define a child as under 18, and they are required to be in education full time.

    The age of sexual consent, at 16, is actually now the outlier in legislation on the age of majority.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756

    rcs1000 said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    The simple solution is that there is only one sex - which we shall call Ugg - until the age of 25.
    Eww.
    I think gendering everyone as Ugg is an idea we should quickly boot out.
    Is this a game of one uggmanship?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    No, it won't. This is entirely different

    The Tories are rightly opposing a lunacy we will all come to regret
    From a pure politics perspective, in the short-term it might be effective at targeting middle-class, middle-aged women who are such an important voting demographic. Shoring up support in the face of a Labour landslide.

    Long-term = ???. Women of my generation are highly supportive, if my friends are anything to go by.
    Absolutely the opposite in my experience. The majority of women I know - from 25-80 - dislike the extreme trans stuff and abhor the idea of self ID and sex change before 18. They manage to do this without being "transphobic" - they fully support the idea of a trans person transitioning as an adult

    Hell, even my actual trans woman friend - who had gender reassignment surgery decades back - vigorously questions the implications of the GRAct in Scotland and despairs of the radical trans activists
    Fair enough - and that general view is supported by the polls.

    I'm talking specifically about 25 - 30, who are the people I chat with. Might be a symptom of those who disagree being scared to speak up though.
    It would be a brave person (!) who articulated just about any view about the trans issue.

    We might do it on here because we are largely anonymous and no one would raise their eyebrows or put in a complaint (cf mate of mine - yes I know - who was addressing the new board of the company he had just sold was told he had committed a "minor aggression" for calling the whole meeting "guys").

    Plus it's complicated. Self ID at 16 live a life of happiness and contentment; self ID at 16 regret it years later. Who the fuck knows or can tell.
    Self ID at 16 can be reversed. It is less harmful.

    It is the surgery and the puberty blockers and the rest which are abominable, when given to actual children
    Yes well I was throwing that in as part of the package. And I believe the UN can define "actual children" as those below 18 (or it does for combatants in Africa).
    The various Children’s Acts in the UK define a child as under 18, and they are required to be in education full time.

    The age of sexual consent, at 16, is actually now the outlier in legislation on the age of majority.
    Apart, again, from the voting age in Scotland (and Wales as well).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 32,314

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    I think it’s a bad bill. And, opposition to it exists across the political spectrum.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792
    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    It's just a core vote retention strategy. They can't do anything about Cozzie Livs so they'll settle for some transphobic shit to keep the gammons slightly less livid than usual.
    When a new slang breaks out for the "Cost of Living" then we know it is not a bubble issue. I have seen and heard Cozzie Livs used a few times since Christmas.
    My socials are conspicuously not blowing up with the neologism 'Scotty Trans'.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    @BethRigby: RT @BethRigby: ANALYSIS: ‘Blue Monday’ marked with the announcements of yet another wave of industrial action from nurses & teache… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615111928841654273
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    edited January 17
    Ugg footwear is undoubtedly the ugliest on earth. Perhaps that is the point.

    If only we had a footwear specialist on PB to give us the defintive answer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    It's just a core vote retention strategy. They can't do anything about Cozzie Livs so they'll settle for some transphobic shit to keep the gammons slightly less livid than usual.
    When a new slang breaks out for the "Cost of Living" then we know it is not a bubble issue. I have seen and heard Cozzie Livs used a few times since Christmas.
    My socials are conspicuously not blowing up with the neologism 'Scotty Trans'.
    Do they get your drift?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,052
    edited January 17

    On-topic:

    I'd expect there would need to be a year or more of sustained strike action before the public get really peeved. At the moment there are other concerns, and many people generally feel sympathetic to the strikers.

    I'd like to know who all these people are who are misty-eyed about train drivers.

    Sympathy for NHS nurses is widespread but I'm yet to find any colleague who has something printable to say about ASLEF or the RMT.
    Most of my circle are sympathetic to the train staff, including my apolitical colleagues, while simultaneously feeling ithe strike is a nuisance. "Give them a rise just matching inflation" is probably the median view. ASLEF not so much because of the perception that drivers are really well-paid, and people are more familiar with friendly station staff than they are with drivers.

    I was at a NYE party in a very conservative Oxfordshire village where one guest started ranting about "Mick Lynch and his Trotskyite mates". All the other guests stared at him as though he'd arrived from outer space - partly because talking politics at a party is Not Done, but also (I think) because there's some sympathy for people looking after passengers for tuppence and being asked to take a real pay cut.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    No, it won't. This is entirely different

    The Tories are rightly opposing a lunacy we will all come to regret
    From a pure politics perspective, in the short-term it might be effective at targeting middle-class, middle-aged women who are such an important voting demographic. Shoring up support in the face of a Labour landslide.

    Long-term = ???. Women of my generation are highly supportive, if my friends are anything to go by.
    Do you discuss it much? I have one friend who is very anti-GRA for feminist reasons ("we're fought so hard to have our identity respected, now adult men feel they can just claim it"), but literally nobody else ever mentions it, although they talk about lots of other political issues. I suspect there are 5-10% who feel strongly on both sides, and 80-90% who don't give it a thought. Perhaps it's different in Scotland because the GRA is so high-profile?
    You do lead a weirdly sheltered life. This is a live issue for growing numbers of people

    eg Anyone who is a parent of someone aged 9-18 will likely have a view on this
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Nick Cave responds to a song written by chatgpt in the style of Nick Cave:
    https://www.theredhandfiles.com/chat-gpt-what-do-you-think/

    "What ChatGPT is, in this instance, is replication as travesty. ChatGPT may be able to write a speech or an essay or a sermon or an obituary but it cannot create a genuine song. It could perhaps in time create a song that is, on the surface, indistinguishable from an original, but it will always be a replication, a kind of burlesque.

    Songs arise out of suffering, by which I mean they are predicated upon the complex, internal human struggle of creation and, well, as far as I know, algorithms don’t feel. Data doesn’t suffer. ChatGPT has no inner being, it has been nowhere, it has endured nothing, it has not had the audacity to reach beyond its limitations, and hence it doesn’t have the capacity for a shared transcendent experience, as it has no limitations from which to transcend. ChatGPT’s melancholy role is that it is destined to imitate and can never have an authentic human experience, no matter how devalued and inconsequential the human experience may in time become.

    What makes a great song great is not its close resemblance to a recognizable work. Writing a good song is not mimicry, or replication, or pastiche, it is the opposite. It is an act of self-murder that destroys all one has strived to produce in the past. It is those dangerous, heart-stopping departures that catapult the artist beyond the limits of what he or she recognises as their known self. This is part of the authentic creative struggle that precedes the invention of a unique lyric of actual value; it is the breathless confrontation with one’s vulnerability, one’s perilousness, one’s smallness, pitted against a sense of sudden shocking discovery; it is the redemptive artistic act that stirs the heart of the listener, where the listener recognizes in the inner workings of the song their own blood, their own struggle, their own suffering. This is what we humble humans can offer, that AI can only mimic, the transcendent journey of the artist that forever grapples with his or her own shortcomings. This is where human genius resides, deeply embedded within, yet reaching beyond, those limitations."

    I think I would enjoy obituaries written by Nick Cave.

    I asked ChatGPT to write an obituary of Margaret Thatcher in the style of Nick Cave, but it wouldn't without changing the name to avoid being disrespectful. It came up with this, which is truly shit, - only the disclaimer at the end is funny:

    "She came like a storm, a force to be reckoned with
    Martha Tiler, the Iron Will, our Prime Minister
    She divided us, with her policies so strict
    But her leadership, you couldn't help but predict

    She privatized, she unionized, she went to war
    She changed the nation, forevermore
    But now her time has come, her reign is through
    Martha Tiler, our divisive leader, we bid adieu

    She was the Red Right Hand, of British politics
    A Mercy Seat, for some, a curse for others
    Into the Arms, of history she'll be
    Where the Wild Roses Grow, her legacy

    But now The Weeping Song, echoes through the land
    For a leader who, with a iron hand, lead this nation
    But now she's gone, and we're left to mourn
    Martha Tiler, forever in our hearts, will be reborn.

    Please note that this is a fictional example and it is not to be taken as a real obituary of any person living or dead, this is a form of creative writing and also, it's not meant to be disrespectful in any way."
    So Nick Cave is complaining that ChatGPT, which is a machine, is a machine?

    lol
    No. Nick Cave is pointing out to people that ChatGPT can't replace art it can only replicate it.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 8,689
    edited January 17

    eek said:

    On-topic:

    I'd expect there would need to be a year or more of sustained strike action before the public get really peeved. At the moment there are other concerns, and many people generally feel sympathetic to the strikers.

    A lot of the general public will be struggling themselves or know people who are struggling and many probably wish they could do something about it themselves but they aren’t in a position to do so.

    Slightly off topic but Mrs Eek has joined unison for the first time after 30 years because the next set of local authority cutbacks look likely to hit the legally required but slightly less legally required than social care planning departments.

    Any pretence of hitting application target time frames have been binned by virtually everyone.
    I haven't ever worked directly in it myself but i have worked alongside plenty and, despite the regular hours (by and large), I think I'd hate working in the public sector.

    Modest pay, with even more modest increases, rather repetitive and bureaucratic work, infuriatingly mediocre people, sticky and slow career progression, and appalling management. Rules for everything.

    A good pension and "not my job" rights isn't enough to tempt me for that.
    The "mediocre" is a real Telegraph caricature. Like all caricatures, it can be born out by a minority of individuals, but mostly I find public service staff rather more dedicated and committed to making a special effort than in other sectors. I do agree that you can move up the ladder faster in many private sector firms.
    I'm referring to my own personal experience of working in and with Cabinet Office, planning authorities and councils.

    There are very good people, but they are the outliers, and plenty of very average ones climb to the top and grab MBEs and OBEs with awful behaviours.
    Possible cross purposes? The people at the top in the public sector often are ghastly, in the way you say. The ones a level or two down- the ones who do the actual work- are often doing a brilliant job of keeping a show in the road with little more than a lump of dry blutack and an excel spreadsheet. (And the people at the very top in the private sector can be awful in a different way.)
  • TOPPING said:

    Ugg footwear is undoubtedly the ugliest on earth. Perhaps that is the point.

    If only we had a footwear specialist on PB to give us the defintive answer.

    There’s only one brand of footwear worse than Uggs, Crocs.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says 16-year-old children are old enough to change gender

    “I was working at 16, I was paying tax at 16, I could make decisions for myself at 16,” she tells @KayBurley


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1615249674004201472

    I fear opposing the Gender Recognition Act will do as much damage for the Tories as Section 28 in the long term.

    No, it won't. This is entirely different

    The Tories are rightly opposing a lunacy we will all come to regret
    From a pure politics perspective, in the short-term it might be effective at targeting middle-class, middle-aged women who are such an important voting demographic. Shoring up support in the face of a Labour landslide.

    Long-term = ???. Women of my generation are highly supportive, if my friends are anything to go by.
    Absolutely the opposite in my experience. The majority of women I know - from 25-80 - dislike the extreme trans stuff and abhor the idea of self ID and sex change before 18. They manage to do this without being "transphobic" - they fully support the idea of a trans person transitioning as an adult

    Hell, even my actual trans woman friend - who had gender reassignment surgery decades back - vigorously questions the implications of the GRAct in Scotland and despairs of the radical trans activists
    Fair enough - and that general view is supported by the polls.

    I'm talking specifically about 25 - 30, who are the people I chat with. Might be a symptom of those who disagree being scared to speak up though.
    It would be a brave person (!) who articulated just about any view about the trans issue.

    We might do it on here because we are largely anonymous and no one would raise their eyebrows or put in a complaint (cf mate of mine - yes I know - who was addressing the new board of the company he had just sold was told he had committed a "minor aggression" for calling the whole meeting "guys").

    Plus it's complicated. Self ID at 16 live a life of happiness and contentment; self ID at 16 regret it years later. Who the fuck knows or can tell.
    Self ID at 16 can be reversed. It is less harmful.

    It is the surgery and the puberty blockers and the rest which are abominable, when given to actual children
    Yes well I was throwing that in as part of the package. And I believe the UN can define "actual children" as those below 18 (or it does for combatants in Africa).
    The various Children’s Acts in the UK define a child as under 18, and they are required to be in education full time.

    The age of sexual consent, at 16, is actually now the outlier in legislation on the age of majority.
    Apart, again, from the voting age in Scotland (and Wales as well).
    Something that was done, in Scotland at least, purely for political purposes ahead of the 2014 referendum, and only applies to local elections rather than UK Parliamentary elections.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357
    China's population falls for first time since 1961

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-64300190
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    @nicholascecil: Met chief Sir Mark Rowley: I can’t promise women reporting crimes won’t be speaking to a sex offender officer - sto… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615263583167811584
  • Morning all! Snow up to the top of my boots this morning with more to come. The boy was most unhappy to find the school bus running - he'd anticipated getting a snow day off.

    On topic - the sheer gall of the Sunak cabinet beggars belief. The Nadim Zahawi tweet where he shows Starmer in Mick Lynch's pocket is unreal, linking Labour to their "union paymasters" who quite pointedly doesn't include the RMT.

    The responses are funny, so much anger towards Zahawi's own tax issues. There's even a remake of it showing Zahawi in the pocket of Gulf Keystone Petroleum's CEO... https://twitter.com/iamdanduke/status/1615137206632419331
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357
    When those opposing the strikes range from 28% for nurses to 49% for RMT workers and the Tories are currently on about 25 to 30% in most polls, tough anti strike measures from the government could actually boost the Conservatives poll rating

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/20/nurses-and-ambulance-workers-have-most-public-supp
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264

    On topic - the sheer gall of the Sunak cabinet beggars belief. The Nadim Zahawi tweet where he shows Starmer in Mick Lynch's pocket is unreal, linking Labour to their "union paymasters" who quite pointedly doesn't include the RMT.

    The responses are funny, so much anger towards Zahawi's own tax issues. There's even a remake of it showing Zahawi in the pocket of Gulf Keystone Petroleum's CEO...

    @MarinaPurkiss: Well, this is embarrassing @nadhimzahawi… https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1615005785498738688/photo/1
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Nick Cave responds to a song written by chatgpt in the style of Nick Cave:
    https://www.theredhandfiles.com/chat-gpt-what-do-you-think/

    "What ChatGPT is, in this instance, is replication as travesty. ChatGPT may be able to write a speech or an essay or a sermon or an obituary but it cannot create a genuine song. It could perhaps in time create a song that is, on the surface, indistinguishable from an original, but it will always be a replication, a kind of burlesque.

    Songs arise out of suffering, by which I mean they are predicated upon the complex, internal human struggle of creation and, well, as far as I know, algorithms don’t feel. Data doesn’t suffer. ChatGPT has no inner being, it has been nowhere, it has endured nothing, it has not had the audacity to reach beyond its limitations, and hence it doesn’t have the capacity for a shared transcendent experience, as it has no limitations from which to transcend. ChatGPT’s melancholy role is that it is destined to imitate and can never have an authentic human experience, no matter how devalued and inconsequential the human experience may in time become.

    What makes a great song great is not its close resemblance to a recognizable work. Writing a good song is not mimicry, or replication, or pastiche, it is the opposite. It is an act of self-murder that destroys all one has strived to produce in the past. It is those dangerous, heart-stopping departures that catapult the artist beyond the limits of what he or she recognises as their known self. This is part of the authentic creative struggle that precedes the invention of a unique lyric of actual value; it is the breathless confrontation with one’s vulnerability, one’s perilousness, one’s smallness, pitted against a sense of sudden shocking discovery; it is the redemptive artistic act that stirs the heart of the listener, where the listener recognizes in the inner workings of the song their own blood, their own struggle, their own suffering. This is what we humble humans can offer, that AI can only mimic, the transcendent journey of the artist that forever grapples with his or her own shortcomings. This is where human genius resides, deeply embedded within, yet reaching beyond, those limitations."

    I think I would enjoy obituaries written by Nick Cave.

    I asked ChatGPT to write an obituary of Margaret Thatcher in the style of Nick Cave, but it wouldn't without changing the name to avoid being disrespectful. It came up with this, which is truly shit, - only the disclaimer at the end is funny:

    "She came like a storm, a force to be reckoned with
    Martha Tiler, the Iron Will, our Prime Minister
    She divided us, with her policies so strict
    But her leadership, you couldn't help but predict

    She privatized, she unionized, she went to war
    She changed the nation, forevermore
    But now her time has come, her reign is through
    Martha Tiler, our divisive leader, we bid adieu

    She was the Red Right Hand, of British politics
    A Mercy Seat, for some, a curse for others
    Into the Arms, of history she'll be
    Where the Wild Roses Grow, her legacy

    But now The Weeping Song, echoes through the land
    For a leader who, with a iron hand, lead this nation
    But now she's gone, and we're left to mourn
    Martha Tiler, forever in our hearts, will be reborn.

    Please note that this is a fictional example and it is not to be taken as a real obituary of any person living or dead, this is a form of creative writing and also, it's not meant to be disrespectful in any way."
    So Nick Cave is complaining that ChatGPT, which is a machine, is a machine?

    lol
    No. Nick Cave is pointing out to people that ChatGPT can't replace art it can only replicate it.
    This is not intelligent. All art is replication and recombination. It does not arrive ex nihilo. It is comprised of the various artistic influences the artist has seen, read, encountered, loved, hated, envied, abjured, these are then spliced and diced in the artistic brain and something "new" is synthesised. But it is not really new. It is not a brand new thing. It is made up of already used language, or images, or whatever, the same way a new human baby is made from genetic recombination

    Machines will absolutely do all that. And convincingly like a human. And it will be very very good art, in its ability to amuse, move, inspire, depress, purge, and redeem us

This discussion has been closed.