Stark I believe Alan Sugar has gone from supporting Thatcher to supporting Blair to now supporting Red Ed, he may be the only person in the country to have made that move, but he is available!
I think my father is the only person in the country who voted Labour in 1983 and Tory in 1997.
Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.
You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.
Evidence?
Me.
You've switched from Labour since last month?
I know I don't trust ed balls even more since last month.
I wonder if the biggest issue to grab attention this last few days, and one that has had a lot of coverage is Benefits Street. That type of coverage will resonate in polls quicker than 'dry' political policy and speeches.
Could the move in both YouGov and ComRes be related to that?
This poll won't be about the 50p move, stuff like that always takes longer than you think to feed into VI - happens with conferences. cOULD MEAN IT GETS BETTER OR WORSE
I think he has done, Rennard doesnt strike me as the kind of guy who wouldnt have brought up something like this (if he really has anything particularly interesting) when first put under pressure.
I wonder if the biggest issue to grab attention this last few days, and one that has had a lot of coverage is Benefits Street. That type of coverage will resonate in polls quicker than 'dry' political policy and speeches.
Could the move in both YouGov and ComRes be related to that?
MickPork But you are ignoring the rise of UKIP which is eating into both main parties' vote share, it could end up UKIP ends up with double the LD share, both main parties in the mid to late thirties and Clegg again deciding the government with 20-30 seats while UKIP has none!
I warned this afternoon - 50p tax could be popular in isolation but still disastrous for Lab.
Tough immigration and benefits policies are popular in isolation but make Con look nasty - Result = Con lose votes.
50p tax is popular in isolation but make people think Lab means high tax FOR EVERYONE - Result = Lab lose votes.
Lots of people will be thinking: If Lab will do 50p tax, what other taxes will they change? Will they abolish ISAs? Will they tax existing ISAs? Will they put up Income Tax or NI? Will they increase Inheritance Tax? etc etc etc.
This could be disastrous for Lab.
"Disastrous" might very well be overreading it.
However the basic premise of this post is worthwhile. It would be a mistake to read the polls on the 50p rate in isolation. If the debate sticks to the 50p rate issue then Labour are going to win on it, but it seems unlikely to stay so narrow.
It might not make much difference to the grand narratives. Are Labour the Tax Party? Are the Tories the Rich Party? Neither of those are exactly news. But for some wavering voters there may be an extra uncertainty about letting Labour in.
Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.
You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.
Evidence?
Me.
You've switched from Labour since last month?
I know I don't trust ed balls even more since last month.
And labour bloody playing politics over Syrian refugee's,the nasty party.
Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.
You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.
Evidence?
Me.
You've switched from Labour since last month?
I know I don't trust ed balls even more since last month.
But you have been profoundly anti-Labour for a while, haven't you?
I suspect that come 2015 Labour will get more WWC votes than any other party.
This poll won't be about the 50p move, stuff like that always takes longer than you think to feed into VI - happens with conferences. cOULD MEAN IT GETS BETTER OR WORSE
Indeed. I have just been mulling this - presumably the vast majority of the sample was on Friday and Saturday, before the announcement. In that regard, the poll is out of date. Labour's fear will be that the 50p rate will make them look too left wing, their hope that its naked popularity will boost VI. I don't suppose either potential dynamic is shown in this poll.
Even with ComRes, with Labour on a frankly miserable 33%, Labour leads every age group under 55. More grist to my theory that this will be a Gen X and Y vs the Baby Boom election - generational differences to the fore.
It's not. The kippers aren't going away and since so many expect them to do well at the EU elections there is nothing surprising at all about them beginning to swing back up again after their fall from last May's very good local election results for them.
I doubt this will do much push their vote down either.
Watching the Ed Balls interview I am greatly relieved to realise that I'm not the only one unable to figure out what Ed Miliband is going on about half the time.
Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.
You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.
Evidence?
Me.
You've switched from Labour since last month?
I know I don't trust ed balls even more since last month.
But you have been profoundly anti-Labour for a while, haven't you?
I suspect that come 2015 Labour will get more WWC votes than any other party.
Mr Tyke, I cannot remember you being anything other than very anti-Labour.
MickPork But you are ignoring the rise of UKIP which is eating into both main parties' vote share, it could end up UKIP ends up with double the LD share, both main parties in the mid to late thirties and Clegg again deciding the government with 20-30 seats while UKIP has none!
Both the LDs and UKIP scoring substantially less MPs than their percentage vote shares; Labour and Tories getting substantially more. What a crappy voting system we have.
Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.
You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.
Evidence?
Me.
You've switched from Labour since last month?
I know I don't trust ed balls even more since last month.
But you have been profoundly anti-Labour for a while, haven't you?
I suspect that come 2015 Labour will get more WWC votes than any other party.
I have,but I was willing to give ed a fair crack of the whip.
I wonder if the biggest issue to grab attention this last few days, and one that has had a lot of coverage is Benefits Street. That type of coverage will resonate in polls quicker than 'dry' political policy and speeches.
Could the move in both YouGov and ComRes be related to that?
Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.
You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.
Evidence?
Me.
You've switched from Labour since last month?
I know I don't trust ed balls even more since last month.
But you have been profoundly anti-Labour for a while, haven't you?
I suspect that come 2015 Labour will get more WWC votes than any other party.
Mr Tyke, I cannot remember you being anything other than very anti-Labour.
I did come out for ed on his energy freeze ;-) and against the bed room tax.
Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.
You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.
Evidence?
Me.
You've switched from Labour since last month?
I know I don't trust ed balls even more since last month.
But you have been profoundly anti-Labour for a while, haven't you?
I suspect that come 2015 Labour will get more WWC votes than any other party.
Labour are at least four times as popular as UKIP amongst the working class. Even the Tories are twice as popular, at least.
As for "White working class". I find it odd that people refer to race.
Which is why you do not understand what is happening.
Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.
You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.
Evidence?
Me.
You've switched from Labour since last month?
I know I don't trust ed balls even more since last month.
But you have been profoundly anti-Labour for a while, haven't you?
I suspect that come 2015 Labour will get more WWC votes than any other party.
Mr Tyke, I cannot remember you being anything other than very anti-Labour.
I did come out for ed on his energy freeze ;-) and against the bed room tax.
Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.
You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.
Evidence?
Me.
You've switched from Labour since last month?
I know I don't trust ed balls even more since last month.
But you have been profoundly anti-Labour for a while, haven't you?
I suspect that come 2015 Labour will get more WWC votes than any other party.
Mr Tyke, I cannot remember you being anything other than very anti-Labour.
I did come out for ed on his energy freeze ;-) and against the bed room tax.
MickPork But you are ignoring the rise of UKIP which is eating into both main parties' vote share, it could end up UKIP ends up with double the LD share, both main parties in the mid to late thirties and Clegg again deciding the government with 20-30 seats while UKIP has none!
I'm hardly ignoring it since I've been pointing out the most telling moves due to the kipper VI for months on here.
The point about the kipper vote is that it's pretty much accepted it's going to drop come 2015 in the same way it's accepted lib dems will go up in 2015. Before then however the kipper vote is going to wreak havoc with the polling.
Of course there is still a small chance that the kippers might not drop in the last weeks of the 2015 election campaign just as there is a small chance that the lib dem vote won't rise and will keep flatlining like it has since 2010. I don't believe it myself but it's not impossible.
Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.
You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.
Evidence?
Me.
You've switched from Labour since last month?
I know I don't trust ed balls even more since last month.
But you have been profoundly anti-Labour for a while, haven't you?
I suspect that come 2015 Labour will get more WWC votes than any other party.
Labour are at least four times as popular as UKIP amongst the working class. Even the Tories are twice as popular, at least.
As for "White working class". I find it odd that people refer to race.
Yes, it's hard to see how a mixed race working class voter is very different to his white Mum or Dad. But clearly he must be in some way.
Saddened - My wary skeletal frame needs a rest from the constant humping of squirrel polls that the masses on PB ignore. Till tomorrows movement of the polling stanchions.
Balls has clearly alienated vast swathes of the British working class with his threat to drive out business and investment.
I think most so-called working class people won't even know who Balls is let along that he's proposing tax rises. I'd have thought Benefits Street (biggest audience on Mondays at about 5 million) would have a greater effect. It's toxic for Labour.
Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.
You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.
Evidence?
Me.
You've switched from Labour since last month?
I know I don't trust ed balls even more since last month.
But you have been profoundly anti-Labour for a while, haven't you?
I suspect that come 2015 Labour will get more WWC votes than any other party.
Labour are at least four times as popular as UKIP amongst the working class. Even the Tories are twice as popular, at least.
As for "White working class". I find it odd that people refer to race.
Which is why you do not understand what is happening.
What's happening? I mean in the real world, not in your head.
What is actually happening is that Labour supporters who think the GE is in the bag are too arrogant to see what is happening with the traditional Labour vote.
Labour are no longer the party of the working class, instead they are the party of the underclass and champagne socialists that can afford to vote for them.
Bury your head in the sand if you wish Hugh, it suits us Kippers just fine.
Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.
You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.
Evidence?
Me.
You've switched from Labour since last month?
I know I don't trust ed balls even more since last month.
But you have been profoundly anti-Labour for a while, haven't you?
I suspect that come 2015 Labour will get more WWC votes than any other party.
Labour are at least four times as popular as UKIP amongst the working class. Even the Tories are twice as popular, at least.
As for "White working class". I find it odd that people refer to race.
Well tell your own supporters then,they Quick off the mark to mention the British immigrant community not voting conservative.
Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.
You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.
Evidence?
Me.
You've switched from Labour since last month?
I know I don't trust ed balls even more since last month.
But you have been profoundly anti-Labour for a while, haven't you?
I suspect that come 2015 Labour will get more WWC votes than any other party.
Labour are at least four times as popular as UKIP amongst the working class. Even the Tories are twice as popular, at least.
As for "White working class". I find it odd that people refer to race.
Which is why you do not understand what is happening.
What's happening? I mean in the real world, not in your head.
What is actually happening is that Labour supporters who think the GE is in the bag are too arrogant to see what is happening with the traditional Labour vote.
Labour are no longer the party of the working class, instead they are the party of the underclass and champagne socialists that can afford to vote for them.
Bury your head in the sand if you wish Hugh, it suits us Kippers just fine.
What's the difference, in your opinion, between the White working class and the non-white working class?
Just that you use the term "White working class", obviously referring to race, quite a lot.
So did Mike on the original post, do you think he is a racist or a political guru?
What is actually happening is that Labour supporters who think the GE is in the bag are too arrogant to see what is happening with the traditional Labour vote.
Labour are no longer the party of the working class, instead they are the party of the underclass and champagne socialists that can afford to vote for them.
Bury your head in the sand if you wish Hugh, it suits us Kippers just fine.
What's the difference, in your opinion, between the White working class and the non-white working class?
Just that you use the term "White working class", obviously referring to race, quite a lot.
ABOVE IS QUOTE
I think it is used in political terms to describe a specific sector of working class who could feel that other working class groups have had advantageous legislation passed for them. An issue if there are areas where there is positive discrimination on racial, religious or sexual basis seeming to create an uneven playing field.
It may be an imaginary grouping, or there may be a group out there who harbour a grievance.
Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.
You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.
Evidence?
Me.
You've switched from Labour since last month?
I know I don't trust ed balls even more since last month.
But you have been profoundly anti-Labour for a while, haven't you?
I suspect that come 2015 Labour will get more WWC votes than any other party.
Labour are at least four times as popular as UKIP amongst the working class. Even the Tories are twice as popular, at least.
As for "White working class". I find it odd that people refer to race.
Well tell your own supporters then,they Quick off the mark to mention the British immigrant community not voting conservative.
I asked about the "white" bit of "WWC", I didn't ask about immigration.
Well I should have put it better with our british black and Asian community,your side loves mentioning when it comes to vote labour.
You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.
Evidence?
Me.
You've switched from Labour since last month?
I know I don't trust ed balls even more since last month.
But you have been profoundly anti-Labour for a while, haven't you?
I suspect that come 2015 Labour will get more WWC votes than any other party.
Labour are at least four times as popular as UKIP amongst the working class. Even the Tories are twice as popular, at least.
As for "White working class". I find it odd that people refer to race.
Which is why you do not understand what is happening.
What's happening? I mean in the real world, not in your head.
What is actually happening is that Labour supporters who think the GE is in the bag are too arrogant to see what is happening with the traditional Labour vote.
Labour are no longer the party of the working class, instead they are the party of the underclass and champagne socialists that can afford to vote for them.
Bury your head in the sand if you wish Hugh, it suits us Kippers just fine.
What's the difference, in your opinion, between the White working class and the non-white working class?
Just that you use the term "White working class", obviously referring to race, quite a lot.
So did Mike on the original post, do you think he is a racist or a political guru?
I asked Mike below about hard data on white vs non-white working class, and strongly suspect I have more chance of him providing any than you.
All you are doing by continuing to pursue this is showing that you do not understand why Labour losing votes to UKIP.
SO Indeed, but the British people rejected electoral reform in a referendum.
Mick Pork True, but any LD rise will just make Clegg more likely to be 'kingmaker
'
Sure. My point is that if the LDs get 30 MPs on 9% of the vote, they're under-represented in the Commons, regardless of how many MPs UKIP do or don't get.
I think the polls are more likely down to last weeks unemployment figures than anything else, but still pretty funny coming so soon after the 50p announcement, LOL
SO Indeed, but the British people rejected electoral reform in a referendum.
Mick Pork True, but any LD rise will just make Clegg more likely to be 'kingmaker'
It would have to be far more than a mere rise to limit the kind of severe damage coming the lib dems way in 2015. It would have to be a surge of massive proportions and that just isn't going to happen under Clegg.
You are also greatly underestimating just how close and exact the votes have to fall for there to be a hung parliament. It doesn't just happen if the parties are close(ish) and the lib dems have some MPs. It needs a lot of lib dem MPs and it needs the vote to fall in a very narrow band of outcome. That's why there have been so few hung parliaments in the last 50 years and why the lib dems want rid of FPTP. Just because it happened in 2010 certainly doesn't mean it's going to happen in 2015. That was a rare occurance.
"Looks like Nigel Farage has done a Gerald Ratneresque interview in the Times"
Best place to do one. The Hoi Polloi don't buy it and don't pay the firewall. Ergo they won't read it.
PS - can anyone clarify for me "Hoi Polloi" means "The People" in Greek so is "The Hoi Pelloi" a tautology?
I thought Hoi Polloi meant the many/the majority in Ancient Greek.
Hoi Polloi does indeed mean "the people" in ancient Greek, or more strictly "the citizens" (foreigners, slaves and women therefore did not qualify). I notice that wikipedia and the Oxford dictionary online both use TSE's definition "the many" but in my view, if I was translating a Greek text, I would use "the citizens" as Polloi is derived from Polis (city).
In English it is established that it should be used with the definite article as in 'the "hoi polloi"'. To do otherwise is unnecessarily pedantic and ignores the common use of words like alcohol which also include the article from the original language.
"Looks like Nigel Farage has done a Gerald Ratneresque interview in the Times"
Best place to do one. The Hoi Polloi don't buy it and don't pay the firewall. Ergo they won't read it.
PS - can anyone clarify for me "Hoi Polloi" means "The People" in Greek so is "The Hoi Pelloi" a tautology?
I thought Hoi Polloi meant the many/the majority in Ancient Greek.
Hoi Polloi does indeed mean "the people" in ancient Greek, or more strictly "the citizens" (foreigners, slaves and women therefore did not qualify). I notice that wikipedia and the Oxford dictionary online both use TSE's definition "the many" but in my view, if I was translating a Greek text, I would use "the citizens" as Polloi is derived from Polis (city).
In English it is established that it should be used with the definite article as in 'the "hoi polloi"'. To do otherwise is unnecessarily pedantic and ignores the common use of words like alcohol which also include the article from the original language.
I have to admit, when I was at school, I paid more attention to Latin than Greek.
A party run by a public school educated city trader, and the only one to have been led by a member of the aristocracy is not one that is going to keep those angry with the rich happy very long. Look at who finances UKIP and think on...
Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.
It's really not inexplicable at all. UKIP have huge appeal to working-class voters who are absolutely furious about the rich taking us all for a ride, and, despite the "Labour have lurched to the left!!!!11" nonsense that the media constantly parrot, the perception among working-class voters is still that Labour are too close to the rich and too quick to hit the poor. This might seem illogical to us since UKIP's economic policies are extremely rightwing and anti-poor (though, as I keep saying, they're starting to sense their opportunity and shifting to the left), but noone ever said the electorate were always rational, and Farage does a good job of appearing as a "man of the people" against the establishment, even if his policies say differently.
"Looks like Nigel Farage has done a Gerald Ratneresque interview in the Times"
Best place to do one. The Hoi Polloi don't buy it and don't pay the firewall. Ergo they won't read it.
PS - can anyone clarify for me "Hoi Polloi" means "The People" in Greek so is "The Hoi Pelloi" a tautology?
I thought Hoi Polloi meant the many/the majority in Ancient Greek.
Hoi Polloi does indeed mean "the people" in ancient Greek, or more strictly "the citizens" (foreigners, slaves and women therefore did not qualify). I notice that wikipedia and the Oxford dictionary online both use TSE's definition "the many" but in my view, if I was translating a Greek text, I would use "the citizens" as Polloi is derived from Polis (city).
In English it is established that it should be used with the definite article as in 'the "hoi polloi"'. To do otherwise is unnecessarily pedantic and ignores the common use of words like alcohol which also include the article from the original language.
Rubbish! Liddell and Scott: POLUS 6) in Att. with the article HOI POLLOI 'The Many', 'The Majority'.
"Looks like Nigel Farage has done a Gerald Ratneresque interview in the Times"
Best place to do one. The Hoi Polloi don't buy it and don't pay the firewall. Ergo they won't read it.
PS - can anyone clarify for me "Hoi Polloi" means "The People" in Greek so is "The Hoi Pelloi" a tautology?
I thought Hoi Polloi meant the many/the majority in Ancient Greek.
Hoi Polloi does indeed mean "the people" in ancient Greek, or more strictly "the citizens" (foreigners, slaves and women therefore did not qualify). I notice that wikipedia and the Oxford dictionary online both use TSE's definition "the many" but in my view, if I was translating a Greek text, I would use "the citizens" as Polloi is derived from Polis (city).
In English it is established that it should be used with the definite article as in 'the "hoi polloi"'. To do otherwise is unnecessarily pedantic and ignores the common use of words like alcohol which also include the article from the original language.
I don't think that hoi polloi derives from polis (city). polloi (many) is the plural of polys (much), so hoi polloi's original meaning is "the many (people [understood])".
"Looks like Nigel Farage has done a Gerald Ratneresque interview in the Times"
Best place to do one. The Hoi Polloi don't buy it and don't pay the firewall. Ergo they won't read it.
PS - can anyone clarify for me "Hoi Polloi" means "The People" in Greek so is "The Hoi Pelloi" a tautology?
I thought Hoi Polloi meant the many/the majority in Ancient Greek.
Hoi Polloi does indeed mean "the people" in ancient Greek, or more strictly "the citizens" (foreigners, slaves and women therefore did not qualify). I notice that wikipedia and the Oxford dictionary online both use TSE's definition "the many" but in my view, if I was translating a Greek text, I would use "the citizens" as Polloi is derived from Polis (city).
In English it is established that it should be used with the definite article as in 'the "hoi polloi"'. To do otherwise is unnecessarily pedantic and ignores the common use of words like alcohol which also include the article from the original language.
Rubbish! Liddell and Scott: POLUS 6) in Att. with the article HOI POLLOI 'The Many', 'The Majority'.
There is a big difference between voting support and leadership, and not just with UKIP. It is particularly stark in UKIP though.
Of course the USA republicans have been doing a similar stunt for some years, with the social conservatism so popular in Kansas combining with the Masters of the Universe in Wall street. It may work as well for UKIP.
A party run by a public school educated city trader, and the only one to have been led by a member of the aristocracy is not one that is going to keep those angry with the rich happy very long. Look at who finances UKIP and think on...
Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.
It's really not inexplicable at all. UKIP have huge appeal to working-class voters who are absolutely furious about the rich taking us all for a ride, and, despite the "Labour have lurched to the left!!!!11" nonsense that the media constantly parrot, the perception among working-class voters is still that Labour are too close to the rich and too quick to hit the poor. This might seem illogical to us since UKIP's economic policies are extremely rightwing and anti-poor (though, as I keep saying, they're starting to sense their opportunity and shifting to the left), but noone ever said the electorate were always rational, and Farage does a good job of appearing as a "man of the people" against the establishment, even if his policies say differently.
Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.
You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.
Evidence?
Labours shift in the way they talk about immigration, the anti Ukip leaflets they are using in the Wythenshawe by election, the acceptance of the fact by John Healey?
"Looks like Nigel Farage has done a Gerald Ratneresque interview in the Times"
Best place to do one. The Hoi Polloi don't buy it and don't pay the firewall. Ergo they won't read it.
PS - can anyone clarify for me "Hoi Polloi" means "The People" in Greek so is "The Hoi Pelloi" a tautology?
I thought Hoi Polloi meant the many/the majority in Ancient Greek.
Hoi Polloi does indeed mean "the people" in ancient Greek, or more strictly "the citizens" (foreigners, slaves and women therefore did not qualify). I notice that wikipedia and the Oxford dictionary online both use TSE's definition "the many" but in my view, if I was translating a Greek text, I would use "the citizens" as Polloi is derived from Polis (city).
In English it is established that it should be used with the definite article as in 'the "hoi polloi"'. To do otherwise is unnecessarily pedantic and ignores the common use of words like alcohol which also include the article from the original language.
I don't think that hoi polloi derives from polis (city). polloi (many) is the plural of polys (much), so hoi polloi's original meaning is "the many (people [understood])".
Of course not. Everyone knows POLIS declines POLIS POLIN POLEIS POLEIS - not an OI in sight!
Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.
You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.
Evidence?
Me.
You've switched from Labour since last month?
I know I don't trust ed balls even more since last month.
But you have been profoundly anti-Labour for a while, haven't you?
I suspect that come 2015 Labour will get more WWC votes than any other party.
Labour are at least four times as popular as UKIP amongst the working class. Even the Tories are twice as popular, at least.
As for "White working class". I find it odd that people refer to race.
Well tell your own supporters then,they Quick off the mark to mention the British immigrant community not voting conservative.
I asked about the "white" bit of "WWC", I didn't ask about immigration.
Do you think it is an even spread of working class people of all races that say they are voting ukip then?
All you are doing by continuing to pursue this is showing that you do not understand why Labour losing votes to UKIP.
I'm asking you what difference you think there is between the white working class and the non-white working class.
Or to put it another way, why do you think UKIP are (supposedly) picking up white working class votes, and not, say, black working class votes?
From isam's posted link that I am sure you did not bother with:
Ukip's supporters look more like Old Labour than True Blue Tories. Ukip's supporters tend to be blue-collar, older, struggling economically, and often live in poorer, urban areas, with big pools of support in the Labour heartlands of the North. Middle-class suburbanites do not dominate Ukip. They shy away from it.
All very true and my point (and Mike's) is they tend to be, but not always, white. My guess is they feel disenfranchised by the current Labour and their mass immigration policy, which has driven down their wages and means there is less work for builders etc.
Who would have though that Labour would no longer be the party of the working class but are now the party of big business, who they have helped enormously by providing an endless supply of cheap labour.
Toby Young @toadmeister 27 secs The mess the Labour government in Wales has made of education is shocking. Fewer than half of schools "good or better" says Welsh Ofsted
Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.
You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.
Evidence?
Me.
You've switched from Labour since last month?
I know I don't trust ed balls even more since last month.
But you have been profoundly anti-Labour for a while, haven't you?
I suspect that come 2015 Labour will get more WWC votes than any other party.
Labour are at least four times as popular as UKIP amongst the working class. Even the Tories are twice as popular, at least.
As for "White working class". I find it odd that people refer to race.
Well tell your own supporters then,they Quick off the mark to mention the British immigrant community not voting conservative.
I asked about the "white" bit of "WWC", I didn't ask about immigration.
Do you think it is an even spread of working class people of all races that say they are voting ukip then?
I think UKIP's lack of popularity, relative to Labour and the Tories, runs across race, age and class divides, yes.
I'm interested why UKIP supporters like to refer to the "White" working class so much though.
Perhaps Phillip below is right, and it's just shorthand. After all, even the Mighty Smithson used it. But I'd like to know what it's shorthand for.
"Looks like Nigel Farage has done a Gerald Ratneresque interview in the Times"
Best place to do one. The Hoi Polloi don't buy it and don't pay the firewall. Ergo they won't read it.
PS - can anyone clarify for me "Hoi Polloi" means "The People" in Greek so is "The Hoi Pelloi" a tautology?
I thought Hoi Polloi meant the many/the majority in Ancient Greek.
Hoi Polloi does indeed mean "the people" in ancient Greek, or more strictly "the citizens" (foreigners, slaves and women therefore did not qualify). I notice that wikipedia and the Oxford dictionary online both use TSE's definition "the many" but in my view, if I was translating a Greek text, I would use "the citizens" as Polloi is derived from Polis (city).
In English it is established that it should be used with the definite article as in 'the "hoi polloi"'. To do otherwise is unnecessarily pedantic and ignores the common use of words like alcohol which also include the article from the original language.
I don't think that hoi polloi derives from polis (city). polloi (many) is the plural of polys (much), so hoi polloi's original meaning is "the many (people [understood])".
Of course not. Everyone knows POLIS declines POLIS POLIN POLEIS POLEIS - not an OI in sight!
They will be asking for a definition of plebeian next, SD.
I fear your avatar may inspire confidence in any answer you might provide.
A party run by a public school educated city trader, and the only one to have been led by a member of the aristocracy is not one that is going to keep those angry with the rich happy very long. Look at who finances UKIP and think on...
Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.
It's really not inexplicable at all. UKIP have huge appeal to working-class voters who are absolutely furious about the rich taking us all for a ride, and, despite the "Labour have lurched to the left!!!!11" nonsense that the media constantly parrot, the perception among working-class voters is still that Labour are too close to the rich and too quick to hit the poor. This might seem illogical to us since UKIP's economic policies are extremely rightwing and anti-poor (though, as I keep saying, they're starting to sense their opportunity and shifting to the left), but noone ever said the electorate were always rational, and Farage does a good job of appearing as a "man of the people" against the establishment, even if his policies say differently.
FWIW. I believe people vote aspirationally, not what's good for them at any particular moment. If I am right Labour are fecked. Polls in 3 months time (If the economy continues to provides good news) should tell us more
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole 1 min This has to stop. LDHQ blame lack of comms for only suspending today, a cllr charged with child rape in September: http://bit.ly/1fiB1jq
All you are doing by continuing to pursue this is showing that you do not understand why Labour losing votes to UKIP.
I'm asking you what difference you think there is between the white working class and the non-white working class.
Or to put it another way, why do you think UKIP are (supposedly) picking up white working class votes, and not, say, black working class votes?
From isam's posted link that I am sure you did not bother with:
Ukip's supporters look more like Old Labour than True Blue Tories. Ukip's supporters tend to be blue-collar, older, struggling economically, and often live in poorer, urban areas, with big pools of support in the Labour heartlands of the North. Middle-class suburbanites do not dominate Ukip. They shy away from it.
All very true and my point (and Mike's) is they tend to be, but not always, white. My guess is they feel disenfranchised by the current Labour and their mass immigration policy, which has driven down their wages and means there is less work for builders etc.
Who would have though that Labour would no longer be the party of the working class but are now the party of big business, who they have helped enormously by providing an endless supply of cheap labour.
There's something in that, I think. The implications for UKIP are interesting, though. Blue Labour - Callaghan Labour essentially - would envisage a very strong support for trade unionism, high taxes for the better off, high state spending on pensions, social housing, subsidised transport and so on; with a tough line on immigration and EU withdrawal. But is that the party UKIP's activists and leadership want? Farage has described himself as an arch-Thatcherite, for example. How does that sit with Blue Labour?
I think he has done, Rennard doesnt strike me as the kind of guy who wouldnt have brought up something like this (if he really has anything particularly interesting) when first put under pressure.
I don't think another Ashdown affair would even make the front pages.
I remember there was a report from somebody saying that when UKIP's support went over 15%, it started taking votes off Labour. I further remember that that report was cited on this site. Problem is I can't remember what the name of that report was, nor when it was cited here (early last year? Dunno). Cn anybody remember it and where I can find it?
Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.
You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.
Evidence?
Me.
You've switched from Labour since last month?
I know I don't trust ed balls even more since last month.
But you have been profoundly anti-Labour for a while, haven't you?
I suspect that come 2015 Labour will get more WWC votes than any other party.
Labour are at least four times as popular as UKIP amongst the working class. Even the Tories are twice as popular, at least.
As for "White working class". I find it odd that people refer to race.
Well tell your own supporters then,they Quick off the mark to mention the British immigrant community not voting conservative.
I asked about the "white" bit of "WWC", I didn't ask about immigration.
Do you think it is an even spread of working class people of all races that say they are voting ukip then?
I think UKIP's lack of popularity, relative to Labour and the Tories, runs across race, age and class divides, yes.
I'm interested why UKIP supporters like to refer to the "White" working class so much though.
Perhaps Phillip below is right, and it's just shorthand. After all, even the Mighty Smithson used it. But I'd like to know what it's shorthand for.
Haha great stuff
What's great? That Labour and the Tories are utterly trouncing UKIP amongst working class voters?
Still no evidence supporting the "WWC" Vs "Non-WhiteWC" thing I see.
I think he has done, Rennard doesnt strike me as the kind of guy who wouldnt have brought up something like this (if he really has anything particularly interesting) when first put under pressure.
I don't think another Ashdown affair would even make the front pages.
Nah, the media would love to do another batch of headlines about Paddy Pantsdown
FWIW. I believe people vote aspirationally, not what's good for them at any particular moment. If I am right Labour are fecked. Polls in 3 months time (If the economy continues to provides good news) should tell us more
The Tories MUST go for a 40p tax rate.
Eh? I assume you mean a reduction in the 45 p rate to 40? If so that's utterly bonkers. I know that people vote aspirationally but most people know that they will never, ever earn £150,000 a year. Much more sensible would be to increase the ceiling on the 40% rate substantially- the people earning in that area of the tax bands are rich enough to almost certainly all vote and the ceiling is currently low enough not to feel completely out of reach to a voter on an average income.
However I happen to think that tinkering around with the banding does not have the same effect on voters as adjustment to the rates and in that sense you are right. The Tories best gambit would probably be to offer a cut in the 40% rate to 35% with perhaps a lowering of the 45% band to £100,000 to ensure that it does not benefit the very rich too much.
Comments
Call his bluff. Go on, Nick!
Please someone show me the crossover.
Very interesting if Rennard goes nuclear.
However the basic premise of this post is worthwhile. It would be a mistake to read the polls on the 50p rate in isolation. If the debate sticks to the 50p rate issue then Labour are going to win on it, but it seems unlikely to stay so narrow.
It might not make much difference to the grand narratives. Are Labour the Tax Party? Are the Tories the Rich Party? Neither of those are exactly news. But for some wavering voters there may be an extra uncertainty about letting Labour in.
I suspect that come 2015 Labour will get more WWC votes than any other party.
The kippers aren't going away and since so many expect them to do well at the EU elections there is nothing surprising at all about them beginning to swing back up again after their fall from last May's very good local election results for them.
I doubt this will do much push their vote down either.
Best view it and it make up your own mind!
...but great for seeing partisanship in action.
How can two clearly intelligent people hold such wildly different views of one individual's TV performance?
The point about the kipper vote is that it's pretty much accepted it's going to drop come 2015 in the same way it's accepted lib dems will go up in 2015. Before then however the kipper vote is going to wreak havoc with the polling.
Of course there is still a small chance that the kippers might not drop in the last weeks of the 2015 election campaign just as there is a small chance that the lib dem vote won't rise and will keep flatlining like it has since 2010. I don't believe it myself but it's not impossible.
Ed Balls was very unconvincing on whether the 50p would continue once the deficit had been dealt with.
Ed Balls was very unconvincing trying to explain what "predators" were.
Best place to do one. The Hoi Polloi don't buy it and don't pay the firewall. Ergo they won't read it.
PS - can anyone clarify for me "Hoi Polloi" means "The People" in Greek so is "The Hoi Pelloi" a tautology?
Labour are no longer the party of the working class, instead they are the party of the underclass and champagne socialists that can afford to vote for them.
Bury your head in the sand if you wish Hugh, it suits us Kippers just fine.
Mick Pork True, but any LD rise will just make Clegg more likely to be 'kingmaker'
What is actually happening is that Labour supporters who think the GE is in the bag are too arrogant to see what is happening with the traditional Labour vote.
Labour are no longer the party of the working class, instead they are the party of the underclass and champagne socialists that can afford to vote for them.
Bury your head in the sand if you wish Hugh, it suits us Kippers just fine.
What's the difference, in your opinion, between the White working class and the non-white working class?
Just that you use the term "White working class", obviously referring to race, quite a lot.
ABOVE IS QUOTE
I think it is used in political terms to describe a specific sector of working class who could feel that other working class groups have had advantageous legislation passed for them. An issue if there are areas where there is positive discrimination on racial, religious or sexual basis seeming to create an uneven playing field.
It may be an imaginary grouping, or there may be a group out there who harbour a grievance.
You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.
Evidence?
Me.
You've switched from Labour since last month?
I know I don't trust ed balls even more since last month.
But you have been profoundly anti-Labour for a while, haven't you?
I suspect that come 2015 Labour will get more WWC votes than any other party.
Labour are at least four times as popular as UKIP amongst the working class. Even the Tories are twice as popular, at least.
As for "White working class". I find it odd that people refer to race.
Which is why you do not understand what is happening.
What's happening? I mean in the real world, not in your head.
What is actually happening is that Labour supporters who think the GE is in the bag are too arrogant to see what is happening with the traditional Labour vote.
Labour are no longer the party of the working class, instead they are the party of the underclass and champagne socialists that can afford to vote for them.
Bury your head in the sand if you wish Hugh, it suits us Kippers just fine.
What's the difference, in your opinion, between the White working class and the non-white working class?
Just that you use the term "White working class", obviously referring to race, quite a lot.
So did Mike on the original post, do you think he is a racist or a political guru?
I asked Mike below about hard data on white vs non-white working class, and strongly suspect I have more chance of him providing any than you.
All you are doing by continuing to pursue this is showing that you do not understand why Labour losing votes to UKIP.
You are also greatly underestimating just how close and exact the votes have to fall for there to be a hung parliament. It doesn't just happen if the parties are close(ish) and the lib dems have some MPs. It needs a lot of lib dem MPs and it needs the vote to fall in a very narrow band of outcome. That's why there have been so few hung parliaments in the last 50 years and why the lib dems want rid of FPTP. Just because it happened in 2010 certainly doesn't mean it's going to happen in 2015. That was a rare occurance.
In English it is established that it should be used with the definite article as in 'the "hoi polloi"'. To do otherwise is unnecessarily pedantic and ignores the common use of words like alcohol which also include the article from the original language.
We could have a lot of fun on Pleb/Plebeian
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukipwatch/100256765/meet-ukip-britains-most-working-class-party/
Out of interest Rod, whats your punt for vote intention figures at the end of the year?
I've just been upgraded at work, and it is a great shower of shite.
As an apple whore, I'd heartily recommend any apple mac.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5405904/Miliband-aide-paid-by-Labour-is-working-without-a-permit.html
Title: Gross Domestic Product: Preliminary Estimate - Q4 2013
Release date: 28 January 2014 at 9:30am
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/hub/release-calendar/index.html?newquery=*&lday=0&lmonth=0&lyear=0&title=Gross+Domestic+Product:+Preliminary+Estimate&pagetype=calendar-entry&uday=&umonth=&uyear=
'Twas ever thus.
Of course the USA republicans have been doing a similar stunt for some years, with the social conservatism so popular in Kansas combining with the Masters of the Universe in Wall street. It may work as well for UKIP.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/20/labour-campaign-to-combat-ukip-threat
My prediction was polls (intermittently) showing Tories in the lead by May 2014, clear crossover by January 2015...
I think the final answer was plebiscites.
Today a large peel of paint fell to the floor and revealed a damp patch on the ceiling.
If the weather gets drier next week, the peeling may slow.
But the existence of a leak and structural flaw is now clear.
My advice to Lefties and 2010 Lib Dems is not to seek shelter under the ceiling. Your head is about to get hurt.
http://www.johnlewis.com/laptops/0-679.99=price/c80000398?facetSearchRequest=true
http://youtu.be/pwzEiKgp8o0
Ukip's supporters look more like Old Labour than True Blue Tories. Ukip's supporters tend to be blue-collar, older, struggling economically, and often live in poorer, urban areas, with big pools of support in the Labour heartlands of the North. Middle-class suburbanites do not dominate Ukip. They shy away from it.
All very true and my point (and Mike's) is they tend to be, but not always, white. My guess is they feel disenfranchised by the current Labour and their mass immigration policy, which has driven down their wages and means there is less work for builders etc.
Who would have though that Labour would no longer be the party of the working class but are now the party of big business, who they have helped enormously by providing an endless supply of cheap labour.
The mess the Labour government in Wales has made of education is shocking. Fewer than half of schools "good or better" says Welsh Ofsted
Blueprint for England ?
I fear your avatar may inspire confidence in any answer you might provide.
The Tories MUST go for a 40p tax rate.
Other than that, yeah don't buy windows 8. It's sh1te.
9:30 am. See my post on previous thread to JohnO for range of forecasts.
To summarise:
Median: - 0.9%
Low - 0.3%
High - 1.0%
My guesstimate -.0.5%-0.7% (SWIFTIndex latest nowcast was 0.4%)
This has to stop. LDHQ blame lack of comms for only suspending today, a cllr charged with child rape in September: http://bit.ly/1fiB1jq
Another story that could be hitting the lib dems.
However I happen to think that tinkering around with the banding does not have the same effect on voters as adjustment to the rates and in that sense you are right. The Tories best gambit would probably be to offer a cut in the 40% rate to 35% with perhaps a lowering of the 45% band to £100,000 to ensure that it does not benefit the very rich too much.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/