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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Time for the red team to push the panic button? LAB share d

SystemSystem Posts: 11,711
edited January 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Time for the red team to push the panic button? LAB share down 4 and lead just 1pc in latest ComRes phone poll for the Indy

The monthly ComRes/Indy survey is one of just three monthly national polls remaining which use the telephone and its publication, usually at the end of the month, is always an occasion.

Read the full story here


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Comments

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636
    Probably an outlier but sleazy broken Labour on the slide.

    Tories will be gutted not to benefit from the Labour slump, but delighted to be only 1% behind Lab.

    UKIP will be chuffed to buggery with this poll.

    Lib Dems will be depressed to be so far behind UKIP in a phone poll, but delighted not to have seen their vote share slip post Rennard and Hancock stories.

    That gender split on the economy is interesting.

    But tonight's YouGov does make this ComRes seem less of an outlier

    Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead drops to just two points: CON 35%, LAB 37%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636
    ComRes data tables here

    http://comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Political_Poll_28th_January_2013.pdf
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,134
    I'm surprised PB hasn't crashed from everyone frantically reloading the page whilst waiting for this thread.

    ;-)
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sensational NOT .... YouGov and ComRes falling in line with ICM.

    Tick tock ... tick tock Ed ....
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    Even better - this is great for the Blues and there's still the cross-over frenzy to wait for joyously too.... poor old compouter.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636
    From the ComRes findings

    Only 29 per cent believe Mr Balls would make a better chancellor than Mr Osborne, while 47 per cent disagree with this statement. Almost one in four people (23 per cent) who voted Labour in 2010 do not think Mr Balls would do a better job than Mr Osborne.

    Three in ten people (30 per cent) say they would be more likely to vote Labour if Mr Balls were replaced as Shadow Chancellor.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636
    Some 39 per cent of people agreed with the statement that their family’s finances would be better off with David Cameron and George Osborne than with Ed Miliband and Ed Balls. But only 28 per cent agreed when the statement was reversed to say that their family’s finances would be better off with the Labour leader and Shadow Chancellor.

    Women (31 per cent) were more likely than men (24 per cent) to believe their family’s finances would be better off under Mr Miliband and Mr Balls, while men (43 per cent) were more likely than women (35 per cent) to think they would be better off under the Prime Minister and Chancellor.
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    TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    Unlucky, compouter, don't put the goalposts down just yet.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,145
    World of Hype strikes again.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmqU0I1LzQA
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,134
    I have a rule that I never comment on individual polls.

    Sadly, it still counts when there are two polls out at once ...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636
    Fieldwork included Balls' recent economic announcements.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Not sure you can use tonight's you gov poll as any evidence. Could just as easily have been 6 or 8.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Hmph, not as bad as what I'd resigned myself to, but still. Labour have been far too lax this year, their message has become far too murky and confused (after it finally became a bit clearer towards the end of last year). And Ed Balls is now undeniably now a massive liability.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    It is all down to the weighting
    Poll figures before weighting Con 190 voters Labour 255 voters
    after weighting Con 215 voters Labour 227 voters
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 3 mins
    Putting the ComRes 32/33/9/14 into Electoral Calculus gives LAB majority of just 4.

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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Ah bollocks!

    *** Picks up goalposts and rambles on ****
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010
    Lol Thought Compouter would need his goalposts at the ready !

    Thats not really a panic poll for anyone.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Mark

    Do they do that often?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Danny565 said:

    Ed Balls is now undeniably now a massive liability.

    Ed Balls must remain in post.

    His 50% tax announcement was a masterstroke
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    TheLastBoyScoutTheLastBoyScout Posts: 675
    Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,394
    Well that was exciting.....
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    What do you call a pair of outliers ?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    A slight anti-climax, I fear.

    Not sure YouGov tells us much: Labour at the bottom of its standard range, the Tories at the top of theirs. ComRes could be significant, but we'll have to wait and see on that front.
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    EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Have to admit to being a little underwhelmed. I had thought we might get crossover with ComRes and a crazy Labour lead with YouGov. However both showing similar margin-of-error leads may mean that in truth Labour and Tory are now neck and neck.

    The comprehensive dismissal of Ed Balls 50p rate by the business community must now be seriously worrying the few Blairites left in Labour's high command and those charged with trying to find people other than Len McCluskey to fund their Euro and General Election campaigns. We just need the Coop bank to call in Labour's overdraft.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Scott

    The you gov poll and Com Res were at different times and the Com Res one has been waited against Labour.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Scott_P said:



    His 50% tax announcement was a masterstroke

    It was undoubtedly very popular with supporters of all parties. I think Labour will need more than just that to secure a majority though.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Labour is smashing the marginals and its ground game will prevail.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636
    TGOHF said:

    What do you call a pair of outliers ?

    For Labour supporters, two outliers collective name is "A denial of polls"
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014
    Kipper upswing starting to kick in which is line with what happened before last May as well.
    Expect it to continue.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,327
    Balls's 50p tax lark has been an utter implosion - a suicide note. Miliband must find some way of ditching the policy now! My guess is that the non-Tory entrepreneurial north has now had it with Labour London fops and are defecting to UKIP in droves. Miliband needs to reconnect with the movers and the shakers of commerce and industry fast!
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,134
    Courtesy of Gizmodo, I've just found a video detailing the Conservatives / Labour / Lib Dems (*) electoral chances:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYltdonj2iE#t=87

    It's either that, or UKIP supporters trying to destroy any way Johnny Foreigners can get across the channel ...

    (*) Delete according to bias
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    IOS said:

    Labour is smashing the marginals and its ground game will prevail.

    Where Cornwall goes so the rest of the country follows.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Good evening, everyone.

    Nicer polls, but not worth getting excited about unless it becomes a trend.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Balls's 50p tax lark has been an utter implosion - a suicide note. Miliband must find some way of ditching the policy now!

    Why would he ditch a very popular policy?
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited January 2014
    MarkSenior said:

    It is all down to the weighting
    Poll figures before weighting Con 190 voters Labour 255 voters
    after weighting Con 215 voters Labour 227 voters

    and UKIP 91 voters increased to 100 after weighting but in December poll 79 voters reduced to 69 after weighting therefore 3% of the UKIP change is down to the weighting differences .
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    TheLastBoyScout said:

    Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.

    It's really not inexplicable at all. UKIP have huge appeal to working-class voters who are absolutely furious about the rich taking us all for a ride, and, despite the "Labour have lurched to the left!!!!11" nonsense that the media constantly parrot, the perception among working-class voters is still that Labour are too close to the rich and too quick to hit the poor. This might seem illogical to us since UKIP's economic policies are extremely rightwing and anti-poor (though, as I keep saying, they're starting to sense their opportunity and shifting to the left), but noone ever said the electorate were always rational, and Farage does a good job of appearing as a "man of the people" against the establishment, even if his policies say differently.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited January 2014
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB
    Most worrying figure for LAB tonight is that ComRes has just 22% of 2010 LDs saying they'd vote LAB. It has been much higher

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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Wow, actually good news for those wanting sensible economic policy from Labour because I feared a Lab boost following the 50%.

    It will be interesting to see what the 2010 LDs are now indicating. Could it be that a large part of these are NOTA and that some have swung away from Lab?
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    TheLastBoyScoutTheLastBoyScout Posts: 675
    Scott_P said:

    Danny565 said:

    Ed Balls is now undeniably now a massive liability.

    Ed Balls must remain in post.

    His 50% tax announcement was a masterstroke
    You have an odd tendency to post inflammatory one liners at such times then disappear entirely when a poll shows something you don't like.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Neil

    Wait until you see what the local elections look like.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    LOL

    This is a disaster apparently.


    Do you agree with Ed Balls plan to increase income tax to 50p in the £ for those earning £150k+

    Agree - 60.2%

    Disagree - 19.6%

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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    IOS said:

    Neil

    Wait until you see what the local elections look like.

    We've had three sets of local elections to look at since the last GE, IOS. I've looked at them all quite closely. Didnt do that well in Cornwall for all that hard work, tut tut!
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    TheLastBoyScoutTheLastBoyScout Posts: 675
    MarkSenior said:

    It is all down to the weighting
    Poll figures before weighting Con 190 voters Labour 255 voters
    after weighting Con 215 voters Labour 227 voters

    This sounds familiar - I recall a similar issue with ComRes at some point last year Mark. Is it a common phenomenon? Excuse my ignorance.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IOS said:

    Not sure you can use tonight's you gov poll as any evidence. Could just as easily have been 6 or 8.

    Haven't seen you recently. Been busy in Cornwall?
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    TheLastBoyScoutTheLastBoyScout Posts: 675
    Mick_Pork said:

    LOL

    This is a disaster apparently.


    Do you agree with Ed Balls plan to increase income tax to 50p in the £ for those earning £150k+

    Agree - 60.2%

    Disagree - 19.6%

    Hmm.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,145
    TheLastBoyScout said:

    Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.

    Here's a hypothesis:

    Labour look hypocritical or dangerous or [insert derogatory word of choice} with 50% tax.

    But the response of posh Tories and whining rich boys aggravates the WWC.

    UKIP benefits.

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    A party run by a public school educated city trader, and the only one to have been led by a member of the aristocracy is not one that is going to keep those angry with the rich happy very long. Look at who finances UKIP and think on...
    Danny565 said:

    TheLastBoyScout said:

    Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.

    It's really not inexplicable at all. UKIP have huge appeal to working-class voters who are absolutely furious about the rich taking us all for a ride, and, despite the "Labour have lurched to the left!!!!11" nonsense that the media constantly parrot, the perception among working-class voters is still that Labour are too close to the rich and too quick to hit the poor. This might seem illogical to us since UKIP's economic policies are extremely rightwing and anti-poor (though, as I keep saying, they're starting to sense their opportunity and shifting to the left), but noone ever said the electorate were always rational, and Farage does a good job of appearing as a "man of the people" against the establishment, even if his policies say differently.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Now Neil, you know that wasn't what I said we were doing in Cornwall. Just that the Tories were doing sod all. How many marginals for Labour are there in Cornwall?

    The fact that they then lost a load of members, their own agents were regularly blogging about how little work is done and what a shambles their ground campaign is also backs up what I was saying. In fact what I was saying was just quoting a Lib Dem. But then you know that.

    All of that doesn't mean that my argument is wrong and I think you agree with it anyway. The ground game in the marginals is all that matters.
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    TheLastBoyScoutTheLastBoyScout Posts: 675
    Danny565 said:

    TheLastBoyScout said:

    Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.

    It's really not inexplicable at all. UKIP have huge appeal to working-class voters who are absolutely furious about the rich taking us all for a ride, and, despite the "Labour have lurched to the left!!!!11" nonsense that the media constantly parrot, the perception among working-class voters is still that Labour are too close to the rich and too quick to hit the poor. This might seem illogical to us since UKIP's economic policies are extremely rightwing and anti-poor (though, as I keep saying, they're starting to sense their opportunity and shifting to the left), but noone ever said the electorate were always rational, and Farage does a good job of appearing as a "man of the people" against the establishment, even if his policies say differently.
    Quite possibly, but what I meant was, what was the reason for such an immediate shift.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Wow, actually good news for those wanting sensible economic policy from Labour because I feared a Lab boost following the 50%.

    "At time of writing this post I had not seen the detailed data but it does appear that UKIP is now starting to hurt LAB quite seriously. It appears as though Farage’s party is picking up sizeable chunks of the white working class vote."

    Same thing happened in the run up to last May as I've been pointing out for ages.
    Look at the drops.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    The higher the kipper vote gets the bigger a chunk it takes out of labour.




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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited January 2014
    Look.....not a squirrel to be seen....tonight truly is a squirrel free zone....LET US ALL TALK ABOUT TONIGHT'S OPINION POLLS!!!!

    *** Books a session with the chiropractor ****
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    TheLastBoyScout said:

    Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.

    You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    TheLastBoyScout said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    LOL

    This is a disaster apparently.


    Do you agree with Ed Balls plan to increase income tax to 50p in the £ for those earning £150k+

    Agree - 60.2%

    Disagree - 19.6%

    Hmm.
    Why "Hmm"?
    It's easily explained.
    Most people are greedy, stupid and selfish.

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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    TheLastBoyScout said:

    MarkSenior said:

    It is all down to the weighting
    Poll figures before weighting Con 190 voters Labour 255 voters
    after weighting Con 215 voters Labour 227 voters

    This sounds familiar - I recall a similar issue with ComRes at some point last year Mark. Is it a common phenomenon? Excuse my ignorance.
    There was an odd Yougov poll last year which had a strange result and very strange weightings used .
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,030
    Interesting question looking at the Comres site.

    Why do the IoS/Sunday Mirror polls always show UKIP at least 50% higher than the Independent polls. Both are conducted by ComRes and presumably both use the same methodology

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Political_Poll_28th_January_2013.pdf
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,189
    This would be the lowest vote for the 2 main parties since before WW2 I believe, rather than talk of a Tory lead (the Tory share is about the same as they got in 2001/2005) the real story is UKIP at 14%, higher than the Liberals got in 1979 and only 2% less than what Ashdown got in 1997. The next election does now look increasingly like another Coalition though, either Labour-LD or Tory-LD depending which main party noses in front to get Clegg's backing! Could again be 'Clegg the Kingmaker' after all even if he loses half his seats!
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Hugh said:

    I feared a Lab boost following the 50%.

    I didn't, but we'll have to wait for post-50% tax polls over time to see.

    I agree.

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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,319
    edited January 2014
    I warned this afternoon - 50p tax could be popular in isolation but still disastrous for Lab.

    Tough immigration and benefits policies are popular in isolation but make Con look nasty - Result = Con lose votes.

    50p tax is popular in isolation but make people think Lab means high tax FOR EVERYONE - Result = Lab lose votes.

    Lots of people will be thinking: If Lab will do 50p tax, what other taxes will they change? Will they abolish ISAs? Will they tax existing ISAs? Will they put up Income Tax or NI? Will they increase Inheritance Tax? etc etc etc.

    This could be disastrous for Lab.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Interesting question looking at the Comres site.

    Why do the IoS/Sunday Mirror polls always show UKIP at least 50% higher than the Independent polls. Both are conducted by ComRes and presumably both use the same methodology

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Political_Poll_28th_January_2013.pdf

    The IoS/Sunday Mirror polls are online polls.

    This poll, like all polls for the Independent are phone polls.
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    TheLastBoyScoutTheLastBoyScout Posts: 675
    nigel4england said:

    TheLastBoyScout said:

    Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.

    You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
    Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
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    TheLastBoyScoutTheLastBoyScout Posts: 675
    MarkSenior said:

    TheLastBoyScout said:

    MarkSenior said:

    It is all down to the weighting
    Poll figures before weighting Con 190 voters Labour 255 voters
    after weighting Con 215 voters Labour 227 voters

    This sounds familiar - I recall a similar issue with ComRes at some point last year Mark. Is it a common phenomenon? Excuse my ignorance.
    There was an odd Yougov poll last year which had a strange result and very strange weightings used .
    That was it - thanks

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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Interesting question looking at the Comres site.

    Why do the IoS/Sunday Mirror polls always show UKIP at least 50% higher than the Independent polls. Both are conducted by ComRes and presumably both use the same methodology

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Political_Poll_28th_January_2013.pdf

    The methodology is the same but the SM polls are all online panel polls and the Inde ones telephone . The obvious conclusion is there for you to make .
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    MikeL

    It is one poll with dodgy weightings? Don't over read it.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636
    Re the 50p tax rate.

    Mike, Peter Kellner and Sir Bob in the past said, it used to take up to two weeks for a news story to filter into the VI.

    I think the same principle still applies.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    TheLastBoyScout said:

    nigel4england said:

    TheLastBoyScout said:

    Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.

    You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
    Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
    The weighting changes for UKIP explain 3 of the 4% rise in the UKIP figure . A 1% rise would just be MofE .
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,375
    "Cause concern" is obviously a fair comment. But the ComRes poll is from a three-day period where YG mostly had Labour well ahead, so it's risky to interpret them as showing a common trend. I'd wait a day or two before pressing any buttons.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,030
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Interesting question looking at the Comres site.

    Why do the IoS/Sunday Mirror polls always show UKIP at least 50% higher than the Independent polls. Both are conducted by ComRes and presumably both use the same methodology

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Political_Poll_28th_January_2013.pdf

    The IoS/Sunday Mirror polls are online polls.

    This poll, like all polls for the Independent are phone polls.
    Cheers. Didn't realise that. Seems strange to put them in the same table in the way they do.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636
    Looks like Nigel Farage has done a Gerald Ratneresque interview in the Times

    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 1m
    Tuesday's Times front page - "Wrong kind of people are in UKIP, Farage says" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers

    pic.twitter.com/LoThQLy8uH
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Hugh said:

    compouter2 said:

    Look.....not a squirrel to be seen....tonight truly is a squirrel free zone....LET US ALL TALK ABOUT TONIGHT'S OPINION POLLS!!!!

    *** Books a session withe the chiropractor ****

    LOL!

    Usually about this time after a new poll the thread wanders off to bashing the BBC or immigrants or discussing trains or summat.

    Not tonight!
    Or......we get a night of Scottish Indy Yes/No boredom....Or....Ukip fall out with the Tories over Fruitcakes of the Loons. Opinion polls......PFFFT!

    Tonight.....my goalposts are the only show in town!


    Go Goalposts!
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Mark

    Without the weightings what would the full poll be?
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,319
    IOS said:

    MikeL

    It is one poll with dodgy weightings? Don't over read it.

    Agree - can't read too much into it.

    But still need to be very, very careful re 50p tax.

    Almost nobody votes on specific policies. People vote on general impression.

    If people get general impression Lab = high tax, that will be catastrophic for Lab.

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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    HYUFD said:

    Could again be 'Clegg the Kingmaker' after all even if he loses half his seats!

    The less MPs the lib dems have the less chance there is of a hung parliament which is always an unlikely result under FPTP anyway. Hence the lib dems intense desire to change the voting system.

    Meanwhile back at the lib dems slow moving Rennard car crash.
    Marion Harvey ‏@penbraith 26m

    Rennard 'knows Lib Dem secrets' http://dailym.ai/1iBfzcA via @MailOnline Oh dear it's not looking good. How many are worried?

    Ron Laverick ‏@2cvdolly1 1h

    Rennard ‘could reveal 20 years of sex scandals’ |aily Express http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/456265/Lord-Rennard-You … see there are years of Libdem beans to spill!


    Cathy Newman ‏@cathynewman 11h

    Very thoughtful @RachelSJohnson piece on #Rennard here http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2546087/RACHEL-JOHNSON-Sorry-Nick-women-wont-touch-I-dont-mean-Lord-Rennard-way.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490 …
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Looks like we're going to be stuck with Anna Soubry for another 5 years.
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    TheLastBoyScout said:

    nigel4england said:

    TheLastBoyScout said:

    Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.

    You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
    Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
    The more people see of Ed and particularly Balls the worse it will become for Labour, and the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.

    I expect to see more Lab>UKIP the closer we get to the GE.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Weighting a for referendum polls good, VI polls bad is it ?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    @TSE,

    In which case this poll reflects the good economic news of a couple of weeks back, the effect of the 50% yet to come. Sounds about right to me.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Re the 50p tax rate.

    Mike, Peter Kellner and Sir Bob in the past said, it used to take up to two weeks for a news story to filter into the VI.

    I think the same principle still applies.

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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    nigel4england said:

    TheLastBoyScout said:

    nigel4england said:

    TheLastBoyScout said:

    Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.

    You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
    Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
    The more people see of Ed and particularly Balls the worse it will become for Labour, and the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.

    I expect to see more Lab>UKIP the closer we get to the GE.
    Good post nigel.

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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    IOS said:

    Mark

    Without the weightings what would the full poll be?

    Pretty difficult to say and no weighting at all can easily lead to a false result .
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,885
    At time of writing this post I had not seen the detailed data but it does appear that UKIP is now starting to hurt LAB quite seriously. It appears as though Farage’s party is picking up sizeable chunks of the white working class vote.
    Apologies for stating the blindingly obvious, but this of course is only drawing out one possibility.

    It's also possible that beneath this poll is a 4% movement from Lab to Con, and a simultaneous 4% movement from Con to UKIP. I think it's a little premature to conclude that UKIP is drawing significant support from Labour, though I will agree that there's likely to be some seepage that way.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,030
    MarkSenior said:

    TheLastBoyScout said:

    nigel4england said:

    TheLastBoyScout said:

    Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.

    You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
    Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
    The weighting changes for UKIP explain 3 of the 4% rise in the UKIP figure . A 1% rise would just be MofE .
    Have they changed their weightings method or are they using the same method they always do? If the latter then crying 'weightings' seems to me to come under the old PB rule that an outlier is any poll you don't like.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,327
    edited January 2014
    Balls has clearly alienated vast swathes of the British working class with his threat to drive out business and investment. Are Balls and Miliband are so removed from reality that they think the masses only claim benefits and don't give a fig about business? Miliband needs to get in some filthy rich tycoons as token advisers, to at least give the impression he's trying to learn about the corporate world. But who would want to do it?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636
    foxinsoxuk said:

    @TSE,

    In which case this poll reflects the good economic news of a couple of weeks back, the effect of the 50% yet to come. Sounds about right to me.


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Re the 50p tax rate.

    Mike, Peter Kellner and Sir Bob in the past said, it used to take up to two weeks for a news story to filter into the VI.

    I think the same principle still applies.

    I was expecting personal economic news to be bad in January/Feb as the Christmas time credit card bills come in, and people feel less prosperous, and it would push down economic optimism down, and Tory VI.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Hugh said:

    nigel4england said:

    TheLastBoyScout said:

    nigel4england said:

    TheLastBoyScout said:

    Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.

    You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
    Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
    the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.

    Evidence?
    Me.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636
    edited January 2014
    My betting related post on tonight's polling

    7/4 on UKIP outpolling the Lib Dems in the 2015 (with William Hill)

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/match-bet
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    TheLastBoyScoutTheLastBoyScout Posts: 675
    @Fox

    The Tory score hasn't budged with ComRes. Maybe Ukip are getting the benefit of this good economic news? More polls needed!
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Tykejohnno said:

    Hugh said:

    nigel4england said:

    TheLastBoyScout said:

    nigel4england said:

    TheLastBoyScout said:

    Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.

    You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
    Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
    the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.

    Evidence?
    Me.
    Me too.

    And the good people of Rotherham.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    I wonder if the biggest issue to grab attention this last few days, and one that has had a lot of coverage is Benefits Street. That type of coverage will resonate in polls quicker than 'dry' political policy and speeches.

    Could the move in both YouGov and ComRes be related to that?
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    compouter2 said:

    Look.....not a squirrel to be seen....tonight truly is a squirrel free zone....LET US ALL TALK ABOUT TONIGHT'S OPINION POLLS!!!!

    *** Books a session with the chiropractor ****

    Don't you have any other material? Every night the same, it was mildly amusing the first 10 or 15 times, but it's seriously overused now.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Labour will probably take more money from the rich by further restricting pension tax relief. But restoring the 50p rate is so much easier to explain. Both policies would be very popular with most voters. The former one would be something they could even agree with the Lib Dems.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sun - Ed guru Arnie Graf does not have Uk work permit.

    Lol.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636
    philiph said:

    I wonder if the biggest issue to grab attention this last few days, and one that has had a lot of coverage is Benefits Street. That type of coverage will resonate in polls quicker than 'dry' political policy and speeches.

    Could the move in both YouGov and ComRes be related to that?

    Tonight's Benefits Street featured a bit on food banks.
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    TheLastBoyScoutTheLastBoyScout Posts: 675
    Even with ComRes, with Labour on a frankly miserable 33%, Labour leads every age group under 55. More grist to my theory that this will be a Gen X and Y vs the Baby Boom election - generational differences to the fore.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,189
    Stark I believe Alan Sugar has gone from supporting Thatcher to supporting Blair to now supporting Red Ed, he may be the only person in the country to have made that move, but he is available!
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    Tykejohnno said:

    Hugh said:

    nigel4england said:

    TheLastBoyScout said:

    nigel4england said:

    TheLastBoyScout said:

    Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.

    You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
    Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
    the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.

    Evidence?
    Me.

    You've switched from Labour since last month?

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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    philiph said:

    I wonder if the biggest issue to grab attention this last few days, and one that has had a lot of coverage is Benefits Street. That type of coverage will resonate in polls quicker than 'dry' political policy and speeches.

    Could the move in both YouGov and ComRes be related to that?

    David Vance ‏@DVATW 39m
    When all is said and done, the true horror of #benefitsstreet is seeing how welfare dependency corrodes the human spirit. LEFTISM in action.

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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    nigel4england said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Hugh said:

    nigel4england said:

    TheLastBoyScout said:

    nigel4england said:

    TheLastBoyScout said:

    Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.

    You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
    Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
    the WWC who have voted Labour all their lives because their Dad and Grandad did now realise that Labour does not support, represent or care about them any longer.

    Evidence?
    Me.
    Me too.

    And the good people of Rotherham.
    Watch the Yorkshire region for UKIP in the European elections ;-)

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    possibly, but we know the oldies are the most likely to vote.
    TheLastBoyScout said:

    Even with ComRes, with Labour on a frankly miserable 33%, Labour leads every age group under 55. More grist to my theory that this will be a Gen X and Y vs the Baby Boom election - generational differences to the fore.

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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    PR^2 would give something like

    Lab 278
    Con 271
    UKIP 52
    LD 21
    Nats 10
    NI 18
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Balls coming up on Newsnight. Anyone tweeted the polls to Paxo?
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    MarkSenior said:

    TheLastBoyScout said:

    nigel4england said:

    TheLastBoyScout said:

    Dreadful polls for Labour - but shift to Ukip seems inexplicable. YouGov is roughly in the natural order of things, as a share of 37% is quite common with that pollster.

    You have to have been living on Mars to think the shift to UKIP is inexplicable.
    Hi Nigel - what I meant was, was what has caused such an -instant- shift. There seems to be a hefty weighting issue with the Lab/Tory score but less so with the Ukip one.
    The weighting changes for UKIP explain 3 of the 4% rise in the UKIP figure . A 1% rise would just be MofE .
    Have they changed their weightings method or are they using the same method they always do? If the latter then crying 'weightings' seems to me to come under the old PB rule that an outlier is any poll you don't like.
    No idea , I am simply noting that in December weightings decreased the UKIP % from 11% to 10% this month their weightings increased the UKIP % to 14%
This discussion has been closed.