And they say that kippers are living in fantasy land! None of us know what is going to happen tomorrow, let alone 2018. If wishes were fishes.........................
Well, sure. And there was a bit of artistic license in there about Labour feuding. But it's clearly wrong to say that Cameron would definitely, or even probably, get knifed if he stayed on as PM but failed to call an in/out referendum. The very minimum background fact that you have to fill in for this scenario is that he's won an election against the odds, which already gives him much greater stature than he has now. It's far more plausible that he'd get away with it, especially when you consider that he'd have plenty of cards to play, like calling a referendum on whether the voters were grumpy about the EU instead, on the grounds that he needed a mandate to make the rest of the EU play ball.
I referenced Pharsalus, Dyrrachium, Cannae, the Alpine and Arnus marches, and the assassination of Caesar by his own side. Your numeracy is as lacking as your history!
Ask Marcellus, Varro, Aemilius, Sempronius, Flaminius and Crispinus what they made of Hannibal.
Caesar was assassinated, but only after he'd become dictator of the greatest empire on Earth. How did hannibal's career pan out after his victories?
By what possible definition was the Roman Empire greater than the Han?
It looks as if Letta and the Italian government are going to follow the Merkel-Cameron path to EU recovery and sideline the Troika and Citoyen Hollande's socialist solutions.
After presenting a plan to cut taxes and focus on growth on Monday, Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta has traveled to Berlin to sit down with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and discuss strategies to improve the Eurozone economy.
In his economic growth plan, which includes tax cuts for businesses, consumers and homeowners, Letta warned that to complete the programme “without a damaging tax hike", he'll have to cut government expenditures, "especially where it hurts”.
Letta's plan does not move directly against Merkel's call for austerity, but attempts to focus on spurring growth both in Italy and the Eurozone in general as the voices calling for an end to measures strangling peripheral countries become louder.
“In Europe and internationally, Italy will find strategies to boost growth without compromising the necessary process of restructuring public finances,” Letta explained.
Germany are likely to offer both Italy and Spain increased direct investment as a means of stimulating growth, while supporting their applications to the EU Commission to accepting fiscal holidays (tax cuts and deferred borrowing targets). Unlike Spain, Italy's problems are not so much the need to reduce its deficit as to generate growth: the Italian economy hasn't grown in 10 years.
"the Italian economy hasn't grown in 10 years"
We won't be far behind them. Pots, kettles etc.
I think the Warwickshire air must be very dank, Mr. Brooke, as you always seem so gloomy.
On the whole the UK under both Brown and Osborne has grown faster than most of its large EU competitors in the past decade. In 2005-09, the UK grew faster than all except Spain who were undergoing a debt fuelled property boom. Germany had also not fully recovered from the effects of unification.
In 2010-2014, Germany lead with strong growth in 2010-11, reflecting the end of reunification drag, its strong engineering export base, low deficit and relative lack of exposure to the financial services sector. Since then the UK has gained (and is forecast to continue gaining) on Germany due its relative separation from the Eurozone crisis.
See the figures here from Eurostat with the prior year for each parliament indexed to 100:
Have you come to a view of what the dividing line would be between major concessions that would be worth keeping us in and token concessions yet? You've said you'd think about it every time I've asked you.
For me personally, the absolute red line is protection of the City, our most important industry and the one area of the economy which has a decent chance of getting growth back on track anytime soon; if I felt staying in would damage the City, that would tip me into the Out camp. Currently our EU friends seem to be doing everything in their power to push me in that direction.
Of course I'm not typical either of the Conservative Party or the country in that respect; others would have different priorities.
My main point, though, is that what constitutes adequate concessions is now in the hands of voters, not politicians. If enough of them vote Conservative, they'll get the referendum. They can then decide whether to stay in or leave, on whatever terms are on offer. If they don't vote Conservative, we stay in and drift towards closer union, quite possibly with irreparable damage to the most important part of our economy. It's as simple as that.
So if we get protection of the City, but still have to have the CAP, still have to have unlimited immigration from Eastern Europe, still can't sign our own trade agreements, still have to deal with a large and growing body of social and product regulations, and also have to accept the Eurozone votes as a bloc, you'd support staying in?
Mr. Eagles, isn't the EU also planning a pensions reform that would cost us a rather hefty sum?
Mr. Herdson, didn't Achilles say it was better to be the lowest man alive than the King of the Underworld? One corpse is much like another, whatever the colour of his boots.
No-one is truly dead while they're remembered. Now then, what's the seventh month of the year again?
It looks as if Letta and the Italian government are going to follow the Merkel-Cameron path to EU recovery and sideline the Troika and Citoyen Hollande's socialist solutions.
After presenting a plan to cut taxes and focus on growth on Monday, Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta has traveled to Berlin to sit down with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and discuss strategies to improve the Eurozone economy.
In his economic growth plan, which includes tax cuts for businesses, consumers and homeowners, Letta warned that to complete the programme “without a damaging tax hike", he'll have to cut government expenditures, "especially where it hurts”.
Letta's plan does not move directly against Merkel's call for austerity, but attempts to focus on spurring growth both in Italy and the Eurozone in general as the voices calling for an end to measures strangling peripheral countries become louder.
“In Europe and internationally, Italy will find strategies to boost growth without compromising the necessary process of restructuring public finances,” Letta explained.
Germany are likely to offer both Italy and Spain increased direct investment as a means of stimulating growth, while supporting their applications to the EU Commission to accepting fiscal holidays (tax cuts and deferred borrowing targets). Unlike Spain, Italy's problems are not so much the need to reduce its deficit as to generate growth: the Italian economy hasn't grown in 10 years.
Tax cuts to stimulate growth; direct investment to stimulate growth. Doesn't sound like George Osborne.
The UK economy may not be growing at an optimum pace but it is certainly not in a crisis state like Spain, Greece, Italy, Ireland, Cyprus and Portugal. Its current growth rate exceeds all its large EU competitors by some distance.
For this reason there is no need for Osborne, at this stage, to reverse his plans and stimulate the economy with large tax cuts. There will however be increased investment, both foreign and domestic. With regards to state investment, the increase will come within the fiscal mandate. Even the BoE are backing off more QE at this stage (see MacCafferty's article in Mail this week). If the BoE do provide monetary stimulus under current conditions it will almost exclusively be in support of the bank restructuring and house building stimulus already announced by Osborne.
Unless I'm making a big memory error, I believe the journalist asked both questions at once: "What if you don't have a majority or what if the other countries don't agree?"
I started to wonder about my memory on this when you posted and when I tried to look it up I couldn't find the specific text of the question asked, but here's what I did get:
Asked whether a referendum would be a deal-breaker if there was a need to form a new coalition in 2015, Mr Cameron said: "I am fighting for and arguing for a Conservative majority government at the next election. I'm confident that we can achieve that but let me be absolutely clear - if I am Prime Minister this will happen."
So even if it's right that the journalist asked both questions at once and the summary skips part of what the journalist said (which I don't think it is), Cameron only answered one of them.
When asked a different question about what happens if the other countries won't play ball, he wouldn't answer it, instead saying that he was sure they would. This set my weasel alarms ringing, because there would be no reason not to answer that if the answer was that he'd call an in/out referendum anyway; Answering it would have made his statement clearer and increased his leverage with the other member states.
So will we see the four riders of the UKIPocalypse on Thursday or will it be a damp squib? I suspect they won't win too many but will cause the Tories to lose some. I couldn't begin to guess the scale of that, but it's the most interesting local elections for some time as a result.
As Mike wrote in the thread heading; no one knows. It's all speculation and guesswork. Even I, a firm supporter of UKIP, don't expect all Four horses of the UKIPocalypse to thunder into the polling stations on Thursday, but perhaps Two horses will be enough.
It looks as if Letta and the Italian government are going to follow the Merkel-Cameron path to EU recovery and sideline the Troika and Citoyen Hollande's socialist solutions.
After presenting a plan to cut taxes and focus on growth on Monday, Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta has traveled to Berlin to sit down with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and discuss strategies to improve the Eurozone economy.
In his economic growth plan, which includes tax cuts for businesses, consumers and homeowners, Letta warned that to complete the programme “without a damaging tax hike", he'll have to cut government expenditures, "especially where it hurts”.
Letta's plan does not move directly against Merkel's call for austerity, but attempts to focus on spurring growth both in Italy and the Eurozone in general as the voices calling for an end to measures strangling peripheral countries become louder.
“In Europe and internationally, Italy will find strategies to boost growth without compromising the necessary process of restructuring public finances,” Letta explained.
Germany are likely to offer both Italy and Spain increased direct investment as a means of stimulating growth, while supporting their applications to the EU Commission to accepting fiscal holidays (tax cuts and deferred borrowing targets). Unlike Spain, Italy's problems are not so much the need to reduce its deficit as to generate growth: the Italian economy hasn't grown in 10 years.
"the Italian economy hasn't grown in 10 years"
We won't be far behind them. Pots, kettles etc.
I think the Warwickshire air must be very dank, Mr. Brooke, as you always seem so gloomy.
On the whole the UK under both Brown and Osborne has grown faster than most of its large EU competitors in the past decade. In 2005-09, the UK grew faster than all except Spain who were undergoing a debt fuelled property boom. Germany had also not fully recovered from the effects of unification.
In 2010-2014, Germany lead with strong growth in 2010-11, reflecting the end of reunification drag, its strong engineering export base, low deficit and relative lack of exposure to the financial services sector. Since then the UK has gained (and is forecast to continue gaining) on Germany due its relative separation from the Eurozone crisis.
See the figures here from Eurostat with the prior year for each parliament indexed to 100:
UK GDP peaked in 2008 ( oddly you seem to have changed your base index in 2009 ). UK GDP has not yet reached that peak of output and sits about 2.5% below five years later. If we're lucky we'll get back to that peak in about 2015 according to your friends in the OBR . So almost a decade with nothing much to show for it and assuming of course events outre-manche don't take a sudden turn for the worst.
As for gloom Mr P, subject to Eurogeddon, I suspect we're back on the growth path between now and the GE, the gloom is only that we could have been there so much faster had we chosen our Chancellor wisely.
"...if you can get growth going..., then, over time, you'll see, actually, borrowing fall. That was the point I was making yesterday and it's good to be able to make it today.""
GDP growth between 2000 and 2007 = 27% Deficit INCREASE = £53.1bn
Seems Ed failed to notice what happened last time Labour enjoyed a period of sustained growth in government. It's called Benonomics:
- when growth is behind trend we spend more because we must - when growth is ahead of trend we spend more because we can
Against the grain, I'd say the Tories should be favourites to gain from Labour. The other 2 councillors in the seat are Tories, Labour only grabbed it by 50 votes when they had a great year last year, the former Tory incumbent had to stand down very late, and the Labour councillor who has died had been plugging away there for years.
2) I am hearing wild rumours about Bucks County Council. The wildest of all is that UKIP may get as far as minority control of the council, with the elections turning into a referendum on HS2. The council have put £500k into legal challenges against the route, which seems more a political stunt than anything else, but hasn't had the impact the Tories hoped. The local LDs have - I think with regret - supported the legal action but no more. I am hearing that UKIP are challenging both parties across the county.
Mr. F, I wonder (roughly) how old you are, given that statement.
My generation (born in the 80s) was probably the last to grow up at least partly without computer games and when gadgets were at a minimum. I was never really into sport but was still fairly active, whereas if I'd been born 8 years or so ago I might very well be a massive couch potato. It must be very hard for parents, because even if they limit the access of their kids to tablets (as in iPads), mobiles and consoles their children will probably get access at school or with their friends.
45. I walked home from school across fields and woods from about the age of 8 onwards, sometimes alone, sometimes with friends. Chemistry lessons involved doing really sensible things like attracting wasps with sweet smelling chemicals and then burning them up with bunsen burners, or pouring sulphuric acid into someone's blazer pocket. Great fun was to be had chucking fireworks down corridors at each other. All the sort of things that would have parents, teachers, child professionals hitting the roof these days.
Interesting tales, Mr. Fear. At school someone (not me) put a cow's heart into another pupil's bag once. He turned rather green. I'm afraid that's the only comparable event I can think of.
So if we get protection of the City, but still have to have the CAP, still have to have unlimited immigration from Eastern Europe, still can't sign our own trade agreements, still have to deal with a large and growing body of social and product regulations, and also have to accept the Eurozone votes as a bloc, you'd support staying in?
That would be the worst case; I'd certainly hope we could do a lot better. Bear in mind that, if there is a referendum coming, our EU friends need to do enough to persuade voters as a whole, so I'd expect more concessions from them.
One thing, though, is 100% certain: no progress will be made without a Conservative majority government. That is the one unanswerable truth in the whole debate.
For a seriously undiscovered restaurant gem in N London check out the Queen of Sheba on Fortress Road. Ethiopian, best coffee ever. And the scimitars on the wall are razor sharp.
Barnier's IORP II proposals are seriously running out of road. The coalition government seems to have done a great job in marshelling a QMV blocking minority with the Dutch, Germans and Irish. Of course, from a purist, technical actuarial perspective, you can make a case...
Always confuses me how to distinguish between a person who does a bad thing well and one who does a bad thing badly..
Is "the worst terrorist ever" one who succeeds in killing a lot of intended victims or an unsuccessful, bungling terrorist who plants the bomb when everyones gone home?
So we can officially conclude that the EU's proposals are a very bad idea.
Hmm - Surely one should always be able to cope with a worst case scenario though. This simply shows the complete unaffordability of defined benefits pensions schemes and why they are a terrible idea - I sincerely hope the public sector is not using them still.
Always confuses me how to distinguish between a person who does a bad thing well and one who does a bad thing badly..
Is "the worst terrorist ever" one who succeeds in killing a lot of intended victims or an unsuccessful, bungling terrorist who plants the bomb when everyones gone home?
Mr. F, I wonder (roughly) how old you are, given that statement.
My generation (born in the 80s) was probably the last to grow up at least partly without computer games and when gadgets were at a minimum. I was never really into sport but was still fairly active, whereas if I'd been born 8 years or so ago I might very well be a massive couch potato. It must be very hard for parents, because even if they limit the access of their kids to tablets (as in iPads), mobiles and consoles their children will probably get access at school or with their friends.
45. I walked home from school across fields and woods from about the age of 8 onwards, sometimes alone, sometimes with friends. Chemistry lessons involved doing really sensible things like attracting wasps with sweet smelling chemicals and then burning them up with bunsen burners, or pouring sulphuric acid into someone's blazer pocket. Great fun was to be had chucking fireworks down corridors at each other. All the sort of things that would have parents, teachers, child professionals hitting the roof these days.
Given what fireworks can do, with very good reason.
I referenced Pharsalus, Dyrrachium, Cannae, the Alpine and Arnus marches, and the assassination of Caesar by his own side. Your numeracy is as lacking as your history!
Ask Marcellus, Varro, Aemilius, Sempronius, Flaminius and Crispinus what they made of Hannibal.
Caesar was assassinated, but only after he'd become dictator of the greatest empire on Earth. How did hannibal's career pan out after his victories?
By what possible definition was the Roman Empire greater than the Han?
OK, fair point: the two were probably about equal, though I'd suggest that the Roman Empire has had a far greater influence on the world today than the Han.
During my physics theory classes as a schoolboy, there was a regular game entailing leaving on the gas taps for a few seconds before lighting the fireball, while the teacher was turned around writing on the board. The aim was to leave it on for as long as you dared before lighting without the teacher noticing. A classmate of mind once lost both his eyebrows when his friend got particularly daring.
@MikeK,the big election for ukip is the euro's,then we might see Four horses of the UKIPocalypse thunder into the polling stations ;-)
Agree. But make no mistake, the locals on Thursday are a big test of where UKIP is on the political map. Do well there and the 2014 EU elections will be halfway into the bag.
Always confuses me how to distinguish between a person who does a bad thing well and one who does a bad thing badly..
Is "the worst terrorist ever" one who succeeds in killing a lot of intended victims or an unsuccessful, bungling terrorist who plants the bomb when everyones gone home?
I referenced Pharsalus, Dyrrachium, Cannae, the Alpine and Arnus marches, and the assassination of Caesar by his own side. Your numeracy is as lacking as your history!
Ask Marcellus, Varro, Aemilius, Sempronius, Flaminius and Crispinus what they made of Hannibal.
Caesar was assassinated, but only after he'd become dictator of the greatest empire on Earth. How did hannibal's career pan out after his victories?
By what possible definition was the Roman Empire greater than the Han?
OK, fair point: the two were probably about equal, though I'd suggest that the Roman Empire has had a far greater influence on the world today than the Han.
Only because of the successes of later European nations over Asia. And things are still playing out: let us remember the next century will likely be a Chinese one.
Nicholas Watt @nicholaswatt . @nick_clegg to @Marthakearney: no further welfare cuts unless Tories agree to cut universal winter fuel payments for pensioners.
Nothing doing then.
Depends on the timescale, doesn't it? There's no commitment post-2015, and I believe the current sparring is about the 2015 period onwards. Quite a lot of Conservatives (including IDS I believe) would be happy to cut back on winter fuel payments for the rich.
It would save tuppence-ha'penny anyway, of course, by the time you've factored in the admin costs.
For example, see page 22: making it taxable would save around £200m. Worth having, but small change in terms of the welfare bill. Withdrawing it for higher-rate taxpayers would save around £100m. It's a minor footnote in the overall scheme of things.
I am in Bucks and have not even had a UKIP leaflet through the door (2 from the tory and 1 from the incumbant libdem). In what you would think is prime UKIP territory (Ivinghoe ward) I couldn't tell you if there is even a UKIP candidate. Not that I'd vote for them if there was. I met Farage during his pub-crawl/campaign in 2010 and formed the impression that Dave was right on the mark with his fruitcake insult.
Pulpstar, the last time they tried that kind of pairing it had horrific results
The murder of Asian prisoner Zahid Mubarek by a racist cellmate could have been prevented, an inquiry has ruled. Naming 19 individuals and 186 failings, Mr Justice Keith's inquiry found psychopathic killer Robert Stewart should have been identified as a risk.
Mr Mubarek died in 2000 after being beaten with a table leg in his cell at Feltham Young Offenders' Institution.
Pulpstar, the last time they tried that kind of pairing it had horrific results
The murder of Asian prisoner Zahid Mubarek by a racist cellmate could have been prevented, an inquiry has ruled. Naming 19 individuals and 186 failings, Mr Justice Keith's inquiry found psychopathic killer Robert Stewart should have been identified as a risk.
Mr Mubarek died in 2000 after being beaten with a table leg in his cell at Feltham Young Offenders' Institution.
Was shooting from the hip, just have no time for terrorists or the likes of that EDL chap or child murderers. Hang the lorra em. Some people just disgust me in general
Not sure anyone predicted this. RedEd embraces Reagenomics! The route to growth is via supply side reforms. Might get my vote. Really. FFS. They haven't a clue. And they might form the next government, which is a genuinely scary thought.
I referenced Pharsalus, Dyrrachium, Cannae, the Alpine and Arnus marches, and the assassination of Caesar by his own side. Your numeracy is as lacking as your history!
Ask Marcellus, Varro, Aemilius, Sempronius, Flaminius and Crispinus what they made of Hannibal.
Caesar was assassinated, but only after he'd become dictator of the greatest empire on Earth. How did hannibal's career pan out after his victories?
By what possible definition was the Roman Empire greater than the Han?
OK, fair point: the two were probably about equal, though I'd suggest that the Roman Empire has had a far greater influence on the world today than the Han.
Only because of the successes of later European nations over Asia. And things are still playing out: let us remember the next century will likely be a Chinese one.
China may well become the predominant world power by 2050 but the international language will still be English, written in Latin script.
As an aside, and linking to another topic of today, if the EU were to integrate fully by then, the global picture would not look a million miles from that of 2000 years ago.
Theres a shed load of houses planned at the bottom of my road as well as HS2 carving its way through the village. http://www.killamarsh-rage.co.uk/ here. I don't know what UKIP's organisation is like around here (No leaflets received for the local election yet) but it could well be fertile ground. As I said I expect them to finish 2nd place in the ward.
"China may well become the predominant world power by 2050 but the international language will still be English, written in Latin script."
Yes, but it's at least arguable that the relative decline in the United States' power will have an impact on the international use of English in the longer term.
After all the guff of the last few weeks about Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan "defeating communism" and "winning the Cold War", it's startling to remember that an officially Marxist-Leninist country is well on course to become the predominant world power. If I recall, even the right-wing historian Niall Ferguson suggested that the real outcome of the Cold War was a transfer of power from the West to the East.
It looks as if Letta and the Italian government are going to follow the Merkel-Cameron path to EU recovery and sideline the Troika and Citoyen Hollande's socialist solutions.
After presenting a plan to cut taxes and focus on growth on Monday, Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta has traveled to Berlin to sit down with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and discuss strategies to improve the Eurozone economy.
In his economic growth plan, which includes tax cuts for businesses, consumers and homeowners, Letta warned that to complete the programme “without a damaging tax hike", he'll have to cut government expenditures, "especially where it hurts”.
Letta's plan does not move directly against Merkel's call for austerity, but attempts to focus on spurring growth both in Italy and the Eurozone in general as the voices calling for an end to measures strangling peripheral countries become louder.
“In Europe and internationally, Italy will find strategies to boost growth without compromising the necessary process of restructuring public finances,” Letta explained.
Germany are likely to offer both Italy and Spain increased direct investment as a means of stimulating growth, while supporting their applications to the EU Commission to accepting fiscal holidays (tax cuts and deferred borrowing targets). Unlike Spain, Italy's problems are not so much the need to reduce its deficit as to generate growth: the Italian economy hasn't grown in 10 years.
I can't see any pots and kettles, Mr Brooke.
Try looking Mr Pole.
UK GDP peaked in 2008 ( oddly you seem to have changed your base index in 2009 ). UK GDP has not yet reached that peak of output and sits about 2.5% below five years later. If we're lucky we'll get back to that peak in about 2015 according to your friends in the OBR . So almost a decade with nothing much to show for it and assuming of course events outre-manche don't take a sudden turn for the worst.
As for gloom Mr P, subject to Eurogeddon, I suspect we're back on the growth path between now and the GE, the gloom is only that we could have been there so much faster had we chosen our Chancellor wisely.
I indexed to the year before each parliamentary term, though it probably would have been better to advance by one year so that 2005 and 2010 became the index years.
Any duff economy can produce growth through excessive borrowing. Brown did it in the run up to 2008 (Public Sector net debt increased by over 500% since 2002). If you want a non-UK example look at Spain in 2005-2010 and compare their growth to where they are today. : Spain is struggling with over 6 million unemployed (27.2%); is into its seventh quarter of continuous recession; has rising debt of over 95% of GDP; expects continued contraction of employment and GDP (-2.0%) throughout 2013; and, has reached the political limits of imposing austerity.
Now compare to the UK where the deficit has been reduced by a third (actually more but let's not argue that point here) and public spending has been cut in real terms. We cannot expect optimum growth when going through a period of necessary fiscal consolidation, when our major trading partners are in deep recession and when the banking sector requires further interventions to enable a functioning distribution system for credit. In these circumstances the growth figures being achieved by Osborne are acceptable to date and are likely to improve further over the next two years.
It is far more important for the UK to eliminate its structural deficit and start reducing debt as a percentage of GDP than it is to stimulate artificial growth on the back of increased borrowing. The underlying deficit fell by its largest proportion in the final quarter of 2012-13 evidencing that further deficit reductions can and will be made in the next two years provided the growth rates achieved in Q1 2013 can be maintained or exceed through this year.
All in all it is beginning to look like we chose our Chancellor very wisely. The balance of fiscal consolidation and growth he has engineered looks like becoming the model path for sustained recovery at optimal costs.
While briefly de-cloaked, may I please challenge one of your recurrent themes about the EU and immigration?
You often - very often - suggest that if the UK left the EU then it would mean that Brit pensioners in Spain would somehow lose their rights of residence there.
My mother retired to Spain in 1990 ie before the implementation of the single market in 1992. She had no problem in obtaining a Spanish "residencia" then and I doubt that she would if the UK left the EU, or withdrew from some elements of freedom of movement.
I am not aware of any statistics about the cash flows associated with, either generally, Northern Europeans retired in Southern Europe, or particularly, Brit retirees in Spain but I would venture to suggest that they are big enough that the Spanish etc would never dream of kicking such significant contributors to their stressed economies out.
"China may well become the predominant world power by 2050 but the international language will still be English, written in Latin script."
Yes, but it's at least arguable that the relative decline in the United States' power will have an impact on the international use of English in the longer term.
After all the guff of the last few weeks about Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan "defeating communism" and "winning the Cold War", it's startling to remember that an officially Marxist-Leninist country is well on course to become the predominant world power. If I recall, even the right-wing historian Niall Ferguson suggested that the real outcome of the Cold War was a transfer of power from the West to the East.
I wouldn't mind if our country had Gov't expenditure at 21% of GDP though Would you ?
The idea that borrowing £120bn a year, £10bn a month, is not enough to stimulate the economy but somehow borrowing £132bn, or £11bn a month, is somehow going to pump this economy into dynamic action is truly bizarre and, in my opinion, evidence of an unsound mind. To put this difference into perspective the difference is less than 0.1% of GDP. How likely is it that this could make a difference?
The reality behind the latest piece of incoherence from Miliband is that where the government can make a difference is in the composition of their spending. The £650 bn of government spending is a very large number and gives the government a lot of influence over the economy. More capital investment and less current consumption probably means a higher multiplier effect and better growth. This government can be rightly criticised for not grasping that nettle sufficiently firmly early enough.
But to adopt this approach you need to answer the question of what elements of current spending would you cut? So far there is no answer to this. None. Nothing. So instead we will just borrow more because that is bound to work isn't it?
Dan Hodges seems to me to have only passing contact with reality but I agree with him on this. If this is really the best Labour can do they will lose.
"I wouldn't mind if our country had Gov't expenditure at 21% of GDP though Would you ?"
Yeah, forget about all the repression and the lack of democracy - as long as we have government expenditure at 21% of GDP. No wonder the 'freedom and democracy loving' Thatcherites were such fans of General Pinochet...
Alex von Tunzelmann @alexvtunzelmann If Nigel Farage is pro smoking in pubs because "people should be able to live their lives as they choose", why isn't he pro gay marriage?
I am in Bucks and have not even had a UKIP leaflet through the door (2 from the tory and 1 from the incumbant libdem). In what you would think is prime UKIP territory (Ivinghoe ward) I couldn't tell you if there is even a UKIP candidate. Not that I'd vote for them if there was. I met Farage during his pub-crawl/campaign in 2010 and formed the impression that Dave was right on the mark with his fruitcake insult.
Thanks pbr2013 - I haven't heard anything specific about Ivinghoe.
One general comment is that Tories are assuming they won't get their EU referendum unless they have a majority. That's not my reading; if the outcome is further negotiations between the Tories and the Lib Dems, my guess is that it will be on the table but with a huge price for the Tories to pay. At least one of outright scrapping of Trident, full House of Lords reform (possibly a referendum on same day?), STV for local elections, or full mansion tax. I don't include pensioner benefits here as I'm convinced they are going anyway; we can't afford them and they will be the price for any further welfare reform.
Glad that's settled then. So no more comparisons from you about Brit retirees in Spain and economically active migrants to the UK from E Europe I trust? That's my Mum you're talking about ;-)
"China may well become the predominant world power by 2050 but the international language will still be English, written in Latin script."
Yes, but it's at least arguable that the relative decline in the United States' power will have an impact on the international use of English in the longer term.
After all the guff of the last few weeks about Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan "defeating communism" and "winning the Cold War", it's startling to remember that an officially Marxist-Leninist country is well on course to become the predominant world power. If I recall, even the right-wing historian Niall Ferguson suggested that the real outcome of the Cold War was a transfer of power from the West to the East.
The global lingua franca has a massive inertia built into it. Latin lasted a thousand years and more beyond the fall of the Western Empire; French lasted two centuries beyond Louis XIV's hegemony; English will survive the US being eclipsed, not least because two of the possible three countries or proto-countries that might eclipse are themselves polyglot and use English as their internal lingua franca.
Cam ratings plummet David Cameron’s personal popularity is at its lowest level since the 2010 general election, according to new research released today.
The YouGov poll for the National Policy Monitor found voters gave the Prime Minister an average of just 3.5 out of 10, compared to 5.1 in May 2010.
Ed Miliband's own ratings have also fallen since he became Labour leader, from 4.4 to 3.75 out of 10 last month.
Elsewhere, support for UKIP has hit 14% ahead of this week's local council elections. Another YouGov poll for the Sun saw Labour slip slightly to 39%, well ahead of the Tories on 30%, with the Lib Dems back on 11%.
The Sun also reports that Conservative insiders fear the party could lose as many as 800 councils seats in Thursday's elections.
But UKIP received some bad publicity after suspending one of its candidates for posting a photo online in which he appears to make a Nazi salute.
The party's leader, Nigel Farage, admitted this morning there had been problems with some candidates, but insisted there were only "a handful".
The real Fruitcake and Nutcase is Cammo. By trying to be all things to all people he has pleased none. Those close supporters that he still has are the rind on the big fat Turquoise cake.
Comments
On the whole the UK under both Brown and Osborne has grown faster than most of its large EU competitors in the past decade. In 2005-09, the UK grew faster than all except Spain who were undergoing a debt fuelled property boom. Germany had also not fully recovered from the effects of unification.
In 2010-2014, Germany lead with strong growth in 2010-11, reflecting the end of reunification drag, its strong engineering export base, low deficit and relative lack of exposure to the financial services sector. Since then the UK has gained (and is forecast to continue gaining) on Germany due its relative separation from the Eurozone crisis.
See the figures here from Eurostat with the prior year for each parliament indexed to 100: I can't see any pots and kettles, Mr Brooke.
DPJHodges Totally missed Ed's pledge to borrow more on ITV this morning. If that's the line, Labour can kiss 2015 goodbye. It's over
For this reason there is no need for Osborne, at this stage, to reverse his plans and stimulate the economy with large tax cuts. There will however be increased investment, both foreign and domestic. With regards to state investment, the increase will come within the fiscal mandate. Even the BoE are backing off more QE at this stage (see MacCafferty's article in Mail this week). If the BoE do provide monetary stimulus under current conditions it will almost exclusively be in support of the bank restructuring and house building stimulus already announced by Osborne.
All sounds very Osborne to me.
http://order-order.com/2013/04/30/chuka-trashes-his-past/
So even if it's right that the journalist asked both questions at once and the summary skips part of what the journalist said (which I don't think it is), Cameron only answered one of them.
When asked a different question about what happens if the other countries won't play ball, he wouldn't answer it, instead saying that he was sure they would. This set my weasel alarms ringing, because there would be no reason not to answer that if the answer was that he'd call an in/out referendum anyway; Answering it would have made his statement clearer and increased his leverage with the other member states.
UK GDP peaked in 2008 ( oddly you seem to have changed your base index in 2009 ). UK GDP has not yet reached that peak of output and sits about 2.5% below five years later. If we're lucky we'll get back to that peak in about 2015 according to your friends in the OBR . So almost a decade with nothing much to show for it and assuming of course events outre-manche don't take a sudden turn for the worst.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/03/budget-2013-some-scary-graphs/
As for gloom Mr P, subject to Eurogeddon, I suspect we're back on the growth path between now and the GE, the gloom is only that we could have been there so much faster had we chosen our Chancellor wisely.
They knew, no other general/opposition leader would ever defeat Thatcher/Caesar, so they had to do it themselves.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 9m
Totally missed Ed's pledge to borrow more on ITV this morning. If that's the line, Labour can kiss 2015 goodbye. It's over.
Adam Boulton @adamboultonSKY 1m
coming up on #boultonandco my interview with @Ed_Miliband - Yes! Labour would borrow more for growth.
Deficit INCREASE = £53.1bn
Seems Ed failed to notice what happened last time Labour enjoyed a period of sustained growth in government. It's called Benonomics:
- when growth is behind trend we spend more because we must
- when growth is ahead of trend we spend more because we can
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2316998/Ed-Miliband-finally-admits-Labour-WOULD-borrow-billions-more.html#ixzz2RwrTc4zZ
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1) We face a by-election in Milton Keynes: http://www.miltonkeynes.co.uk/news/local/tributes-paid-to-working-class-champion-rita-venn-who-died-last-night-1-5044102
Against the grain, I'd say the Tories should be favourites to gain from Labour. The other 2 councillors in the seat are Tories, Labour only grabbed it by 50 votes when they had a great year last year, the former Tory incumbent had to stand down very late, and the Labour councillor who has died had been plugging away there for years.
2) I am hearing wild rumours about Bucks County Council. The wildest of all is that UKIP may get as far as minority control of the council, with the elections turning into a referendum on HS2. The council have put £500k into legal challenges against the route, which seems more a political stunt than anything else, but hasn't had the impact the Tories hoped. The local LDs have - I think with regret - supported the legal action but no more. I am hearing that UKIP are challenging both parties across the county.
One thing, though, is 100% certain: no progress will be made without a Conservative majority government. That is the one unanswerable truth in the whole debate.
For a seriously undiscovered restaurant gem in N London check out the Queen of Sheba on Fortress Road. Ethiopian, best coffee ever. And the scimitars on the wall are razor sharp.
@antifrank @TSE
Barnier's IORP II proposals are seriously running out of road. The coalition government seems to have done a great job in marshelling a QMV blocking minority with the Dutch, Germans and Irish. Of course, from a purist, technical actuarial perspective, you can make a case...
Is "the worst terrorist ever" one who succeeds in killing a lot of intended victims or an unsuccessful, bungling terrorist who plants the bomb when everyones gone home?
It would save tuppence-ha'penny anyway, of course, by the time you've factored in the admin costs.
The facts are here:
http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&ved=0CEQQFjAD&url=http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06019.pdf&ei=5rl_UcnQN8HP0AXs64CQDg&usg=AFQjCNGGHwwiclowfRAAeWletaWvJmq9Aw&sig2=MyjH3yJLsRvUreC5BRURsQ&bvm=bv.45645796,d.d2k
For example, see page 22: making it taxable would save around £200m. Worth having, but small change in terms of the welfare bill. Withdrawing it for higher-rate taxpayers would save around £100m. It's a minor footnote in the overall scheme of things.
I am in Bucks and have not even had a UKIP leaflet through the door (2 from the tory and 1 from the incumbant libdem). In what you would think is prime UKIP territory (Ivinghoe ward) I couldn't tell you if there is even a UKIP candidate. Not that I'd vote for them if there was. I met Farage during his pub-crawl/campaign in 2010 and formed the impression that Dave was right on the mark with his fruitcake insult.
iainmartin1 @DPJHodges Madness. Like Ronald Reagan...
DPJHodges @iainmartin1 Had Ronald Reagen just been kicked out of office for spending and borrowing too much?
iainmartin1 @DPJHodges No. But US was in a hole and RR kickstarted the economy. Not mad to use tax to do that. Thatch + Reagan took v diff views.
DPJHodges @iainmartin1 You think Labour trails the Tories on economic competence because people are scared the two Ed's won't spend enough money
The murder of Asian prisoner Zahid Mubarek by a racist cellmate could have been prevented, an inquiry has ruled.
Naming 19 individuals and 186 failings, Mr Justice Keith's inquiry found psychopathic killer Robert Stewart should have been identified as a risk.
Mr Mubarek died in 2000 after being beaten with a table leg in his cell at Feltham Young Offenders' Institution.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/5126614.stm
http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/holiday_park_to_be_built_in_st_mary_s_lane_upminster_provided_there_s_no_flood_risk_1_2172949
Was shooting from the hip, just have no time for terrorists or the likes of that EDL chap or child murderers. Hang the lorra em. Some people just disgust me in general
Not sure anyone predicted this. RedEd embraces Reagenomics! The route to growth is via supply side reforms. Might get my vote. Really. FFS. They haven't a clue. And they might form the next government, which is a genuinely scary thought.
As an aside, and linking to another topic of today, if the EU were to integrate fully by then, the global picture would not look a million miles from that of 2000 years ago.
Best of luck stopping the park.
Catherine Kieu Guilty Of Severing Husband's Penis After Lacing His Tofu With Sleeping Pills
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/mobileweb/2013/04/30/catherine-kieu-guilty-severing-husbands-penis-tofu-sleeping-pills_n_3183226.html?icid=maing-grid7|ukt2|dl1|sec3_lnk2&pLid=175794&utm_hp_ref=fb&src=sp&comm_ref=false
Alan,
"The Apprentice" has turned into Jeremy Kyle for posh people. Leave your self-awareness at the door.
Yes, but it's at least arguable that the relative decline in the United States' power will have an impact on the international use of English in the longer term.
After all the guff of the last few weeks about Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan "defeating communism" and "winning the Cold War", it's startling to remember that an officially Marxist-Leninist country is well on course to become the predominant world power. If I recall, even the right-wing historian Niall Ferguson suggested that the real outcome of the Cold War was a transfer of power from the West to the East.
Any duff economy can produce growth through excessive borrowing. Brown did it in the run up to 2008 (Public Sector net debt increased by over 500% since 2002). If you want a non-UK example look at Spain in 2005-2010 and compare their growth to where they are today.
:
Spain is struggling with over 6 million unemployed (27.2%); is into its seventh quarter of continuous recession; has rising debt of over 95% of GDP; expects continued contraction of employment and GDP (-2.0%) throughout 2013; and, has reached the political limits of imposing austerity.
Now compare to the UK where the deficit has been reduced by a third (actually more but let's not argue that point here) and public spending has been cut in real terms. We cannot expect optimum growth when going through a period of necessary fiscal consolidation, when our major trading partners are in deep recession and when the banking sector requires further interventions to enable a functioning distribution system for credit. In these circumstances the growth figures being achieved by Osborne are acceptable to date and are likely to improve further over the next two years.
It is far more important for the UK to eliminate its structural deficit and start reducing debt as a percentage of GDP than it is to stimulate artificial growth on the back of increased borrowing. The underlying deficit fell by its largest proportion in the final quarter of 2012-13 evidencing that further deficit reductions can and will be made in the next two years provided the growth rates achieved in Q1 2013 can be maintained or exceed through this year.
All in all it is beginning to look like we chose our Chancellor very wisely. The balance of fiscal consolidation and growth he has engineered looks like becoming the model path for sustained recovery at optimal costs.
While briefly de-cloaked, may I please challenge one of your recurrent themes about the EU and immigration?
You often - very often - suggest that if the UK left the EU then it would mean that Brit pensioners in Spain would somehow lose their rights of residence there.
My mother retired to Spain in 1990 ie before the implementation of the single market in 1992. She had no problem in obtaining a Spanish "residencia" then and I doubt that she would if the UK left the EU, or withdrew from some elements of freedom of movement.
I am not aware of any statistics about the cash flows associated with, either generally, Northern Europeans retired in Southern Europe, or particularly, Brit retirees in Spain but I would venture to suggest that they are big enough that the Spanish etc would never dream of kicking such significant contributors to their stressed economies out.
Do your cows get frightened on bonfire night Farmer tim?
The reality behind the latest piece of incoherence from Miliband is that where the government can make a difference is in the composition of their spending. The £650 bn of government spending is a very large number and gives the government a lot of influence over the economy. More capital investment and less current consumption probably means a higher multiplier effect and better growth. This government can be rightly criticised for not grasping that nettle sufficiently firmly early enough.
But to adopt this approach you need to answer the question of what elements of current spending would you cut? So far there is no answer to this. None. Nothing. So instead we will just borrow more because that is bound to work isn't it?
Dan Hodges seems to me to have only passing contact with reality but I agree with him on this. If this is really the best Labour can do they will lose.
Yeah, forget about all the repression and the lack of democracy - as long as we have government expenditure at 21% of GDP. No wonder the 'freedom and democracy loving' Thatcherites were such fans of General Pinochet...
If Nigel Farage is pro smoking in pubs because "people should be able to live their lives as they choose", why isn't he pro gay marriage?
'Said candidate is an utter, utter, utter gobshoit'
I thought that was the required qualification to appear on the show?
One general comment is that Tories are assuming they won't get their EU referendum unless they have a majority. That's not my reading; if the outcome is further negotiations between the Tories and the Lib Dems, my guess is that it will be on the table but with a huge price for the Tories to pay. At least one of outright scrapping of Trident, full House of Lords reform (possibly a referendum on same day?), STV for local elections, or full mansion tax. I don't include pensioner benefits here as I'm convinced they are going anyway; we can't afford them and they will be the price for any further welfare reform.
Glad that's settled then. So no more comparisons from you about Brit retirees in Spain and economically active migrants to the UK from E Europe I trust? That's my Mum you're talking about ;-)
'DPJHodges @iainmartin1 You think Labour trails the Tories on economic competence because people are scared the two Ed's won't spend enough money'
Pure comedy.
Labour should stay well clear of policy and keep Ed off TV & radio.
David Cameron’s personal popularity is at its lowest level since the 2010 general election, according to new research released today.
The YouGov poll for the National Policy Monitor found voters gave the Prime Minister an average of just 3.5 out of 10, compared to 5.1 in May 2010.
Ed Miliband's own ratings have also fallen since he became Labour leader, from 4.4 to 3.75 out of 10 last month.
Elsewhere, support for UKIP has hit 14% ahead of this week's local council elections. Another YouGov poll for the Sun saw Labour slip slightly to 39%, well ahead of the Tories on 30%, with the Lib Dems back on 11%.
The Sun also reports that Conservative insiders fear the party could lose as many as 800 councils seats in Thursday's elections.
But UKIP received some bad publicity after suspending one of its candidates for posting a photo online in which he appears to make a Nazi salute.
The party's leader, Nigel Farage, admitted this morning there had been problems with some candidates, but insisted there were only "a handful".
The real Fruitcake and Nutcase is Cammo. By trying to be all things to all people he has pleased none. Those close supporters that he still has are the rind on the big fat Turquoise cake.