Tim Shipman still doesn't seem to have got over the inexplicable decision by David Cameron not to appoint him to the inner circle. After yesterday's anguished tweeting about the chumocracy, today he opines:
"The Lockwood appointment reveals again that there are hacks who would rather be members of the political class than hold them to account."
@tim - But they did poll on VI which is all that matters on the day, isn't it? And both show the Tories polling better among women than men. How do you explain that then? And you yourself have obsessively honed in on that divide.
The same chappies predicting massive warming were also predicting in 1976 we'd now be in an ice age, so yes I remain sceptical.
Can you name these "chappies" please?
why? don't you believe ice ages were a la rage in the 1970s, I even remember the BBC running programmes on it.
I distinctly remember in my geogrpahy lessons another 'ice age' or glacial in the current ice age to be more technically correct was overdue. This is ~ 1994.
the one thing you can say about the ice-agers is at some point they will be correct, it's just a shame we don't know when that will be.
Mike. Are you ready to pay the extra 12% pensioners tax that Farage seems to want? His plan is to fuse National Insurance and income tax. Pensioners don't pay NI
Good morning. I see that the anti-kipper brigade is out in full force this morning, led by that antediluvian JackW, who only raises his head above the parapit to wipe his ARSE.
Yep, UKIP are definitely in the cross-hairs of the MSM, goaded by the Tories, but supported by the other two of the Con/Lab/Lib party, the three headed hydra with one political body.
Unfortunately, There is no voting in my area on May 2nd, but will lend a hand where I can.
Maybe they should
On principle, people with an earned income of £20k (say) should be paying *less* tax than people with an unearned income of £20k.
And calling it a Pensioners Tax is ridiculous when at the moment the norm is that everyone *except* pensioners pays it.
Also, were NI and Income Tax merged, it's highly probable that the rate wouldn't be 12% as the extra catchment would enable a reduction in the rate.
FWIW, I think the government should have gone a long way towards this in its first budget, putting up *all* rates of income tax by 5p in its first 'emergency' budget (we're all in this together etc), and cutting NI on both employers and employees by 2p.
The same chappies predicting massive warming were also predicting in 1976 we'd now be in an ice age, so yes I remain sceptical.
Can you name these "chappies" please?
why? don't you believe ice ages were a la rage in the 1970s, I even remember the BBC running programmes on it.
I'm just asking for evidence. You claimed it was the same people. I'm just asking you to back it up.
The most important scientific groups claiming man-made global warming is occurring are the 34 main national science academies, the 5 international science academies, the biggest physics and chemistry academies in Europe, the US and Australia, NASA, and the major meteorological organisations. Did any of them state an ice age was going to happen?
On topic: One thing we shouldn't forget is that these are actually local elections, and the results do have real local consequences. For example, here in East Sussex there has been a very marked improvement in governance and especially in the council finances since the Conservatives regained control from a somewhat chaotic No Overall Control administration in 2001.
If it turns out that there are reasonably large numbers of UKIP councillors (some of whom might hold the balance of power in some councils), that will have consequences further down the line. Their performance, good or bad, will become part of the overall political picture over the next couple of years. That can be an opportunuity for them to build on, but it could also be a liability.
What makes this more than previously the case is the Cabinet system which John Prescott introduced in local councils, which has politicised them much more than was the case in the 1990s.
"The oldies are so bloody molly coddled as a group."
You young 'uns.
As Tony Capstick said ...
"We'd lots o' things in them days they 'aven't got today - rickets, diphtheria, Hitler - and my, we did look well goin' to school wi' no backside in us trousers an' all us little 'eads painted purple because we 'ad ringworm.
'Are you predicting that Milibands rating will fall relative to Cameron's next month?'
I'm predicting that Ed will do badly during a GE campaign. If you listen to the Martha Kearney interview,which was not aggressive or difficult in terms of questions and yet Ed managed to tie himself in knots,contradict himself and not answer basic questions. Assume Labour will ensure that Ed doesn't go anywhere near Paxman.
I missed this from a couple of weeks back. A British Chamber of Commerce poll on British policy towards the EU, and whether they thought of them positively or negatively:
(1) Remaining in the EU, but with specific powers transferred back from Brussels to Westminster: 64% positive, 11% negative (2) Leaving the EU, no trade treaty: 18% positive, 60% negative (3) Leaving the EU, replacement trade treaty: 33% positive, 42% negative (4) Integrating fully with the EU: 23% positive, 48% negative (5) Status quo: 15% positive, 42% negative
The same chappies predicting massive warming were also predicting in 1976 we'd now be in an ice age, so yes I remain sceptical.
Can you name these "chappies" please?
why? don't you believe ice ages were a la rage in the 1970s, I even remember the BBC running programmes on it.
I'm just asking for evidence. You claimed it was the same people. I'm just asking you to back it up.
The most important scientific groups claiming man-made global warming is occurring are the 34 main national science academies, the 5 international science academies, the biggest physics and chemistry academies in Europe, the US and Australia, NASA, and the major meteorological organisations. Did any of them state an ice age was going to happen?
well since it clearly gets you excited you can plough through this lot, which includes folks from National Acadamies and Universities. You can't get the televison through which was full of earnest young men with sideburns and matching paisley ties and shirts telling us we were all doomed on Horizon or Tomorrow's World. Plus ca change.
What works is locking up repeat offenders for long sentences.
That is common sense, not evidence. As is often the case with common sense, it is probably wrong. Some American states tried it. The evidence appears to be that it does not work.
The truth is that we do not really understand what drives and prevents crime, because governments, by and large, don't care.
According to Home Office analysis of historical UK crime stats, half of all serious UK crime is committed by a group of 100,000 career criminals. "The group evolves over time, with fresh recruits replacing those who retire, but it seems to remain at around 100,000"
Tim Shipman still doesn't seem to have got over the inexplicable decision by David Cameron not to appoint him to the inner circle. After yesterday's anguished tweeting about the chumocracy, today he opines:
"The Lockwood appointment reveals again that there are hacks who would rather be members of the political class than hold them to account."
Can someone pick the rattle off the floor?
That comment of course betrays the overinflated opinion of themselves that journalists have. It is not the job of journalists and the media to 'hold politicians to account'. It is their job to report and explain what is going on. The political system offers plenty of opportunity for many to hold politicians, individually and collectively, to account. What the media really want is power, and power without responsibility. not that that's new.
@tim - I believe the latter i.e Labour lead. Do you recall differently? I can't recall ever seeing any figures for the men vs women breakdown for 2010 which would have been our reference point had the bet been based on the former?
The same chappies predicting massive warming were also predicting in 1976 we'd now be in an ice age, so yes I remain sceptical.
Can you name these "chappies" please?
why? don't you believe ice ages were a la rage in the 1970s, I even remember the BBC running programmes on it.
I'm just asking for evidence. You claimed it was the same people. I'm just asking you to back it up.
The most important scientific groups claiming man-made global warming is occurring are the 34 main national science academies, the 5 international science academies, the biggest physics and chemistry academies in Europe, the US and Australia, NASA, and the major meteorological organisations. Did any of them state an ice age was going to happen?
well since it clearly gets you excited you can plough through this lot, which includes folks from National Acadamies and Universities. You can't get the televison through which was full of earnest young men with sideburns and matching paisley ties and shirts telling us we were all doomed on Horizon or Tomorrow's World. Plus ca change.
Sorry to butt in, but doesn't this position boil down to "they were wrong before so they are obviously wrong again". Which is not a particularly strong argument, IMHO.
On topic: One thing we shouldn't forget is that these are actually local elections, and the results do have real local consequences. For example, here in East Sussex there has been a very marked improvement in governance and especially in the council finances since the Conservatives regained control from a somewhat chaotic No Overall Control administration in 2001.
If it turns out that there are reasonably large numbers of UKIP councillors (some of whom might hold the balance of power in some councils), that will have consequences further down the line. Their performance, good or bad, will become part of the overall political picture over the next couple of years. That can be an opportunuity for them to build on, but it could also be a liability.
What makes this more than previously the case is the Cabinet system which John Prescott introduced in local councils, which has politicised them much more than was the case in the 1990s.
That's a good point Richard. I'm undecided between voting Conservative in the locals since my council generally does a good job and protest voting. However I don't like the idea of penalising the locals because CCHQ are prats. What to do ?
Tory hopeful’s hospital pledge ‘Special Saturdays’ bid by Lewell-Buck Celebrity politicians back independent (the celebrities are Galloway and Bell) Party challenged to drop ‘Loony’ tag (the Socialist Independent Candidate thinks it is derogatory for people with mental issues) Ed Balls backs Emma’s bid to be MP Tributes after Coun Potts loses battle for life (the former Tory turned UKIP Cllr has died)
That's a good point Richard. I'm undecided between voting Conservative in the locals since my council generally does a good job and protest voting. However I don't like the idea of penalising the locals because CCHQ are prats. What to do ?
That's a good point Richard. I'm undecided between voting Conservative in the locals since my council generally does a good job and protest voting. However I don't like the idea of penalising the locals because CCHQ are prats. What to do ?
get involved yourself?
my ever so complacent MP Mr Zahawi is an Osborne acolyte in a safe seat, I'd like to see him get a scare, so should I help UKIP or the LDs ?
The same chappies predicting massive warming were also predicting in 1976 we'd now be in an ice age, so yes I remain sceptical.
Can you name these "chappies" please?
why? don't you believe ice ages were a la rage in the 1970s, I even remember the BBC running programmes on it.
I'm just asking for evidence. You claimed it was the same people. I'm just asking you to back it up.
The most important scientific groups claiming man-made global warming is occurring are the 34 main national science academies, the 5 international science academies, the biggest physics and chemistry academies in Europe, the US and Australia, NASA, and the major meteorological organisations. Did any of them state an ice age was going to happen?
well since it clearly gets you excited you can plough through this lot, which includes folks from National Acadamies and Universities. You can't get the televison through which was full of earnest young men with sideburns and matching paisley ties and shirts telling us we were all doomed on Horizon or Tomorrow's World. Plus ca change.
Sorry to butt in, but doesn't this position boil down to "they were wrong before so they are obviously wrong again". Which is not a particularly strong argument, IMHO.
I'll butt out again now.
pretty much so. Except I wouldn't make it quite so strong.
I don't think that Ed Miliband is a particular asset for the Labour party in the polling. However, the interview on The World At One will make the square root of f all's difference to this.
I beg to differ - it serves up a plate the questions rEd will get asked time and time again from now until he has an answer - and there is a reason he didn't want to answer them.
Also - rEd will be hidden, then he will get goaded for hiding, then he will come out and perhaps not the next interview but one soon he will get a reaming in front of a bigger audience.
The interview was not the killer - it was the sharp reminder to all the "experts" who had been bigging up that Labour picked the "right brother" - how metro-elite , unpleasant , economically illiterate and leftwing dear old rEd is - and how ugly a GE campaign will be for someone of his very limited appeal will be.
What works is locking up repeat offenders for long sentences.
That is common sense, not evidence. As is often the case with common sense, it is probably wrong. Some American states tried it. The evidence appears to be that it does not work.
The truth is that we do not really understand what drives and prevents crime, because governments, by and large, don't care.
According to Home Office analysis of historical UK crime stats, half of all serious UK crime is committed by a group of 100,000 career criminals. "The group evolves over time, with fresh recruits replacing those who retire, but it seems to remain at around 100,000"
But that does not support it, if it shows the number of career criminals is stable at 100,000.
The inverse correlation of prison places versus crime looks impressive but fails to account for similar falls elsewhere, and does not distinguish between crimes that carry prison sentences from those that do not.
If everyone who is totally fed up with Lab/Con/Lib and the MSM screaming racism at the slightest hint of regret that their locales have turned foreign** votes UKIP on Thursday*** it'll be a good day for UKIP.
** and that includes the wonderful Mark Easton, BBC - who reckons -600.000 white Brits in London 2001-11 signified rising incomes and zero "white flight"!
To be fair, when Cameron was asked what if he couldn't get a renegotiation, he said "'I'm confident that we can achieve that but let me be absolutely clear, if I am Prime Minister this will happen," which is a pretty solid commitment.
You may not know this from the reporting, but that was in answer to a question about what would happen if he didn't get a majority, not what would happen if the other 27 told him to piss off. (Or more likely, if they told him that it was a very interesting idea, and they'd have a good, long think about taking some soundings about starting a series of discussions about having some meetings about having a summit about it).
So "this" refers to all the other stuff he's said in his speech, which is based on the "I am confident I will win the lottery, and when I do I will give you they money I owe you" weasel.
When this happens our loyalist Tory friends will be happy to dig out the full transcript for you which includes the question as well as the answer, and explain that you're falling for Labour propaganda in thinking he made a promise, and that if you read the speech it's all perfectly clear that the referendum is subject to the renegotiation and the completion of the treaty, because it would be a false choice to ask people if they wanted to be in or out until the meaning of "in" is clear, which it won't be until the completion of the discussions on the future of the EU now scheduled to begin in 2021, etc etc etc.
I love how local papers tend to call MPs with just their first name as they were the person living next door...and also for their tendency to make idiotic headlines-
"Children should be encouraged to take risks and make their own mistakes while they are still young enough to learn from them, a heads' leader says.
They should have time to play poker, drive go-karts and climb trees, says Christian Heinrich, chairman of the Boarding Schools' Association."
Imagine the wailing from the MMR-fearty parents who are scared of a needle. Seems strange then that Liz Truss is worried about "toddlers running around with no sense of purpose” in nurseries
I am not a child psychologist, but I'd say that running around exploring the world is a great way to learn and develop. Not to say there shouldn't be some balance, but a munchkin who's spent the last 30 minutes tearing around pretending to be an aeroplane is more likely to sit still and listen for a while than one who's had to sit in a chair for the same time.
And Helicopter Parents (i.e. those which constantly hover over their child) need to back the f*ck off and let them fall over once in a while. Buy some elastoplasts and extol the virtues of a good scab. All children under the age of 9 should have at least one graze and at least 50% of their clothes marked with grass stains.
The same chappies predicting massive warming were also predicting in 1976 we'd now be in an ice age, so yes I remain sceptical.
Can you name these "chappies" please?
why? don't you believe ice ages were a la rage in the 1970s, I even remember the BBC running programmes on it.
I'm just asking for evidence. You claimed it was the same people. I'm just asking you to back it up.
The most important scientific groups claiming man-made global warming is occurring are the 34 main national science academies, the 5 international science academies, the biggest physics and chemistry academies in Europe, the US and Australia, NASA, and the major meteorological organisations. Did any of them state an ice age was going to happen?
well since it clearly gets you excited you can plough through this lot, which includes folks from National Acadamies and Universities. You can't get the televison through which was full of earnest young men with sideburns and matching paisley ties and shirts telling us we were all doomed on Horizon or Tomorrow's World. Plus ca change.
Do you even read what you link to? I've just clicked through them. There were a very large number of articles, but often there were half a dozen reporting the same story.
I counted three individual scientists - Arnold Reitze, Madaleine Briskin and Hubert Lamb - that actually predicted a global cooling, although one of them said the full impact was 10,000 years away. There were another 8 or 9 who said it may happen, although this included people like Cesare Emiliani who refused to speculate what the long term would be, others who said it would be "for only a few years time".
Other articles were laughably included, including one about a scientist who simply said pollution was happening but we'd have to know more about how it would affect the environment and in which direction, one about a science fiction story, and one about the views of a crazy old woman who buried herself underground.
At no point in any of the articles did any scientific academy give its opinion. So we have three scientists saying global cooling then versus dozens of scientific academies saying global warming now.
Take it from me: Cameron wouldn't last 5 minutes as leader of the party if he tried to weasel out of the referendum in the next parliament (assuming he has a majority and is thus in a position to deliver it, of course). In any case, Cameron would want to close down the issue,
If our EU friends don't want to play ball, they'd therefore have to take the risk that UK voters will opt to leave. Therefore, in practice what would happen is that, in the worst case, there would be some kind of token concessions offered by the EU. Voters would then decide whether to accept that settlement or not.
The same chappies predicting massive warming were also predicting in 1976 we'd now be in an ice age, so yes I remain sceptical.
Can you name these "chappies" please?
why? don't you believe ice ages were a la rage in the 1970s, I even remember the BBC running programmes on it.
I'm just asking for evidence. You claimed it was the same people. I'm just asking you to back it up.
The most important scientific groups claiming man-made global warming is occurring are the 34 main national science academies, the 5 international science academies, the biggest physics and chemistry academies in Europe, the US and Australia, NASA, and the major meteorological organisations. Did any of them state an ice age was going to happen?
well since it clearly gets you excited you can plough through this lot, which includes folks from National Acadamies and Universities. You can't get the televison through which was full of earnest young men with sideburns and matching paisley ties and shirts telling us we were all doomed on Horizon or Tomorrow's World. Plus ca change.
Do you even read what you link to? I've just clicked through them. There were a very large number of articles, but often there were half a dozen reporting the same story.
I counted three individual scientists - Arnold Reitze, Madaleine Briskin and Hubert Lamb - that actually predicted a global cooling, although one of them said the full impact was 10,000 years away. There were another 8 or 9 who said it may happen, although this included people like Cesare Emiliani who refused to speculate what the long term would be, others who said it would be "for only a few years time".
Other articles were laughably included, including one about a scientist who simply said pollution was happening but we'd have to know more about how it would affect the environment and in which direction, one about a science fiction story, and one about the views of a crazy old woman who buried herself underground.
At no point in any of the articles did any scientific academy give its opinion. So we have three scientists saying global cooling then versus dozens of scientific academies saying global warming now.
Mike you are right to say "we simply dont know" how UKIP will perform on Thursday. The difficulty is that of translating share into seats -the old LIb Dem problem. If UKIP polled their current national share say 14% in the locals but totally flat in distribution then they would win zilch.However there are reasons to suggest UIKIP may poll higher in Th Counties than their national vote share.In 2009 the Lib Dems,the party of protest then polled 25%, 6% more than their ICM share at the time.UKIP in the sets they fought roughly 25% polled a mean of 16%.( although possibly boosted a little,because the local and European electioins coincided) Butit is not inconcievable that UKIPs mean share in the seats they figt could rise to ov 20%e.The other factor in gaining seat is that there were a significant number of seats where UKIP wer elaraedy in second place usaully to the Tories ,and some where share wasover 20%. If w eassume a 10% swing from Con to UKIP the any Tory seat with a vote share of under 40% in2009i s vulnerable.Futher there are liklely in 2013, given the likely swings, to be anumber of 3 or even 4 way marginals where a vote share in the 25%-33% may be suffucent to win.
Hence O would still foirecat arpound 100 UKIP gains largely from the CONS.
There's no way the Conservatives will lose 6-800 seats on Friday, unless UKIP are on the point of the kind of breakthrough Labour made in 1922-24.
I agree with Another Richard's analysis. UKIP voters are the sort of people who the main party leaders aren't terribly interested in, and rarely encounter. So, they've concluded that they might as well vote for a party that does take an interest in them. Attacks on UKIP council candidates will just generate the response "they would say that, wouldn't they?" among such voters.
There will, no doubt, come a time when UKIP's policies will come under real scrutiny, but not yet.
And, for those who do expect them just to crash and burn, it didn't happen with the DUP, or the Reform Party of Canada.
And Cameron could only get 36% against Brown, he'll need more than that to keep his job next time
Based on yesterday's WATO interview, doing better against Miliband than he did against the more formidable opponent Gordon Brown looks as though it should be quite possible.
Yes, spending twenty minutes to understand the evidence against my position, in case I'm wrong. I mean, who's sad enough to do that? It's much cooler just to continue in an unflinching opinion and not wasting time on contrary evidence.
Yes, spending twenty minutes to understand the evidence against my position, in case I'm wrong. I mean, who's sad enough to do that? It's much cooler just to continue in an unflinching opinion and not wasting time on contrary evidence.
It's a pointless discussion. Neither of us is going to change our view. We're just two halves of the Self-righteous Brothers, I can live with it.
You may not know this from the reporting, but that was in answer to a question about what would happen if he didn't get a majority, not what would happen if the other 27 told him to piss off.
Unless I'm making a big memory error, I believe the journalist asked both questions at once: "What if you don't have a majority or what if the other countries don't agree?"
I suppose there is a way to thread the needle, but it is much, much more tenuous than last time and he'd get murdered for doing it. Besides, I don't think it matters that much. Cameron will be kaput after the next election, and no-ones going to be elected party leader without committing to a referendum on this.
Yes, spending twenty minutes to understand the evidence against my position, in case I'm wrong. I mean, who's sad enough to do that? It's much cooler just to continue in an unflinching opinion and not wasting time on contrary evidence.
It's a pointless discussion. Neither of us is going to change our view. We're just two halves of the Self-righteous Brothers, I can live with it.
I'm quite happy to change my view. If it turned out that most national academies actually did predict global cooling in the 1970s, I'd really doubt what they're saying now. Equally, if we did not have global warming for a couple decades, I'd change my view. I've changed my views on other things: I thought Osborne's economic strategy was reasonable until the European crisis really exploded, then I argued that much greater investment spending was needed. When the facts change, I change my mind.
Take it from me: Cameron wouldn't last 5 minutes as leader of the party if he tried to weasel out of the referendum in the next parliament (assuming he has a majority and is thus in a position to deliver it, of course). In any case, Cameron would want to close down the issue,
If our EU friends don't want to play ball, they'd therefore have to take the risk that UK voters will opt to leave. Therefore, in practice what would happen is that, in the worst case, there would be some kind of token concessions offered by the EU. Voters would then decide whether to accept that settlement or not.
Have you come to a view of what the dividing line would be between major concessions that would be worth keeping us in and token concessions yet? You've said you'd think about it every time I've asked you.
No Jonny or Chris Robshaw in the Lions squad but that bike cheat Healy is.
Come on Australia.
Leaving a hugely in-form Wilkinson out is a shocking error - based on the extended French season and Jonny missing the Barbarians game in Hong Kong and not wanting players to arrive to the tour team late.
Presumably the Lions management is not expecting any injuries through the whole tour !!
my ever so complacent MP Mr Zahawi is an Osborne acolyte is a safe seat, I'd like to see him get a scare, so should I help UKIP or the LDs ?
Zahawi has a job for life, he started YouGov so he's perfectly aware that he has a job for life, nothing you do or say will make a difference to that.
That sort of sums it up tim, but there's nothing to say he can't feel uncomfortable occasionally.
So if the seat in your own constituency doesn't come up that's it? You walk away?
Zahawi came to Stratford-upon-Avon from Iraq via Sussex.
As for GO acolyte or unbridled criticism of GO, I think that he walked out to bat to avoid a follow-on and you are criticising him for not winning the Belgian Grand Prix.
No Jonny or Chris Robshaw in the Lions squad but that bike cheat Healy is.
Come on Australia.
Leaving a hugely in-form Wilkinson out is a shocking error - based on the extended French season and Jonny missing the Barbarians game in Hong Kong and not wanting players to arrive to the tour team late.
Presumably the Lions management is not expecting any injuries through the whole tour !!
There'll be injuries and people will be called up always happened.
Wilkinson shouldn't have gone though, too long out of international rugby imho.
As for Robshaw, all the flankers that got in ahead of them are better.
Yes, spending twenty minutes to understand the evidence against my position, in case I'm wrong. I mean, who's sad enough to do that? It's much cooler just to continue in an unflinching opinion and not wasting time on contrary evidence.
It's a pointless discussion. Neither of us is going to change our view. We're just two halves of the Self-righteous Brothers, I can live with it.
I'm quite happy to change my view. If it turned out that most national academies actually did predict global cooling in the 1970s, I'd really doubt what they're saying now. Equally, if we did not have global warming for a couple decades, I'd change my view. I've changed my views on other things: I thought Osborne's economic strategy was reasonable until the European crisis really exploded, then I argued that much greater investment spending was needed. When the facts change, I change my mind.
Wunderbar. And as a skeptic I keep an open mind. Institutions saying how terribly important they are doesn't convince, institutions get things wrong as much as anyone else probably worse since they engender group think. So if I don't believe what I'm told so what, it has a long track record of ultimately being right more often that it's wrong. You say you're observing science I say I'm observing human behaviour, we differ. When I'm picking olives in the back garden I'll give you an apology.
Surprised Hibbard (over Best) and Jonathan Davies made it in. Slightly worried that the balance of the centres is too weighted towards hard runners. Ranges from crash-ball merchants like Roberts, to guys who may not even know what passing is (Manu)
"Children should be encouraged to take risks and make their own mistakes while they are still young enough to learn from them, a heads' leader says.
They should have time to play poker, drive go-karts and climb trees, says Christian Heinrich, chairman of the Boarding Schools' Association."
Imagine the wailing from the MMR-fearty parents who are scared of a needle. Seems strange then that Liz Truss is worried about "toddlers running around with no sense of purpose” in nurseries
I am not a child psychologist, but I'd say that running around exploring the world is a great way to learn and develop. Not to say there shouldn't be some balance, but a munchkin who's spent the last 30 minutes tearing around pretending to be an aeroplane is more likely to sit still and listen for a while than one who's had to sit in a chair for the same time.
And Helicopter Parents (i.e. those which constantly hover over their child) need to back the f*ck off and let them fall over once in a while. Buy some elastoplasts and extol the virtues of a good scab. All children under the age of 9 should have at least one graze and at least 50% of their clothes marked with grass stains.
I was probably among the last generation of children who were - to a large extent - left to their own devices. There's good and bad to that, but on balance, the good outweighed the bad.
my ever so complacent MP Mr Zahawi is an Osborne acolyte is a safe seat, I'd like to see him get a scare, so should I help UKIP or the LDs ?
Zahawi has a job for life, he started YouGov so he's perfectly aware that he has a job for life, nothing you do or say will make a difference to that.
That sort of sums it up tim, but there's nothing to say he can't feel uncomfortable occasionally.
So if the seat in your own constituency doesn't come up that's it? You walk away?
Zahawi came to Stratford-upon-Avon from Iraq via Sussex.
As for GO acolyte or unbridled criticism of GO, I think that he walked out to bat to avoid a follow-on and you are criticising him for not winning the Belgian Grand Prix.
I'm quite aware of my MPs background and probably more aware of what he does locally. But if he doesn't really represent what I think why would I vote for him ?
"Children should be encouraged to take risks and make their own mistakes while they are still young enough to learn from them, a heads' leader says.
They should have time to play poker, drive go-karts and climb trees, says Christian Heinrich, chairman of the Boarding Schools' Association."
Imagine the wailing from the MMR-fearty parents who are scared of a needle. Seems strange then that Liz Truss is worried about "toddlers running around with no sense of purpose” in nurseries
I am not a child psychologist, but I'd say that running around exploring the world is a great way to learn and develop. Not to say there shouldn't be some balance, but a munchkin who's spent the last 30 minutes tearing around pretending to be an aeroplane is more likely to sit still and listen for a while than one who's had to sit in a chair for the same time.
And Helicopter Parents (i.e. those which constantly hover over their child) need to back the f*ck off and let them fall over once in a while. Buy some elastoplasts and extol the virtues of a good scab. All children under the age of 9 should have at least one graze and at least 50% of their clothes marked with grass stains.
I was probably among the last generation of children who were - to a large extent - left to their own devices. There's good and bad to that, but on balance, the good outweighed the bad.
I can assure you Sean, many children are now left to their own devices
Take it from me: Cameron wouldn't last 5 minutes as leader of the party if he tried to weasel out of the referendum in the next parliament (assuming he has a majority and is thus in a position to deliver it, of course). In any case, Cameron would want to close down the issue,
If our EU friends don't want to play ball, they'd therefore have to take the risk that UK voters will opt to leave. Therefore, in practice what would happen is that, in the worst case, there would be some kind of token concessions offered by the EU. Voters would then decide whether to accept that settlement or not.
It's 2018. Cameron had looked shaky in the middle of the last parliament, but he turned it around and won a majority against the odds. The economy is growing nicely, Labour are feuding. The 28 are talking about a treaty, but it's now clear there won't be one for a while. A referendum now will result in either Out, which most Tory MPs don't want, or a mandate for In, which they don't want either. Are they going to knife their winner for not calling a referendum they don't want, when they may still get what they do want if they wait? Of course they're not.
Surprised and disappointed Chris Robshaw hasn't made the Lions squad. Very surprised too that so many England front rowers have. Matt Stevens??!!
Don't be that surprised, Bill Beaumont had to rebuke Warren Gatland for his virulent anti-English comments.
There's only one thing a proud English rugby fan can do this summer, support Australia.
Pfsh, true bias was what we saw in 2005, this is not it. I'd have changed a few certainly (although my alterations would mainly up the Irish contingent) but Robshaw being England captain didn't give him a right to go and there are a lot of excellent flankers).
Mr. F, I wonder (roughly) how old you are, given that statement.
My generation (born in the 80s) was probably the last to grow up at least partly without computer games and when gadgets were at a minimum. I was never really into sport but was still fairly active, whereas if I'd been born 8 years or so ago I might very well be a massive couch potato. It must be very hard for parents, because even if they limit the access of their kids to tablets (as in iPads), mobiles and consoles their children will probably get access at school or with their friends.
Surprised and disappointed Chris Robshaw hasn't made the Lions squad. Very surprised too that so many England front rowers have. Matt Stevens??!!
Don't be that surprised, Bill Beaumont had to rebuke Warren Gatland for his virulent anti-English comments.
There's only one thing a proud English rugby fan can do this summer, support Australia.
Pfsh, true bias was what we saw in 2005, this is not it. I'd have changed a few certainly (although my alterations would mainly up the Irish contingent) but Robshaw being England captain didn't give him a right to go and there are a lot of excellent flankers).
Bah, Sir Clive Woodward, World Cup Winning coach, versus Warren Gatland, a man so stupid he can't go on holiday without breaking his feet.
Honestly comparing Gatland to Sir Clive, it's like saying Hannibal is superior to Caesar.
Only the terminally stupid or biased could come to such a conclusion.
Any of the PB Tories tell me why CCHQ have let Toby Young be the Tory representative today?
This is the idiot who recommended the Tories give Farage a free run in Eastleigh
As I remember it Toby Young has a big time chip on his shoulder about Eton/Poshos, etc.
Don't expect any excuses on behalf of Dave from him (of course they should have got on James Delingpole who recently penned an "I've sent my sons to Eton" mea culpa).
Mr. Eagles, the sulphurous fumes of Mordor must have damaged your brain.
Hannibal suffered fewer defeats, lived longer, had more glorious victories and marches and did more with less. Caesar managed to take veterans to defeat against new recruits led by a man so predictable the 'pinnacle' of Caesarian strategy was to put up a line at Pharsalus because he knew a cavalry charge was coming.
It looks as if Letta and the Italian government are going to follow the Merkel-Cameron path to EU recovery and sideline the Troika and Citoyen Hollande's socialist solutions.
After presenting a plan to cut taxes and focus on growth on Monday, Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta has traveled to Berlin to sit down with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and discuss strategies to improve the Eurozone economy.
In his economic growth plan, which includes tax cuts for businesses, consumers and homeowners, Letta warned that to complete the programme “without a damaging tax hike", he'll have to cut government expenditures, "especially where it hurts”.
Letta's plan does not move directly against Merkel's call for austerity, but attempts to focus on spurring growth both in Italy and the Eurozone in general as the voices calling for an end to measures strangling peripheral countries become louder.
“In Europe and internationally, Italy will find strategies to boost growth without compromising the necessary process of restructuring public finances,” Letta explained.
Germany are likely to offer both Italy and Spain increased direct investment as a means of stimulating growth, while supporting their applications to the EU Commission to accepting fiscal holidays (tax cuts and deferred borrowing targets). Unlike Spain, Italy's problems are not so much the need to reduce its deficit as to generate growth: the Italian economy hasn't grown in 10 years.
Mr. Eagles, the sulphurous fumes of Mordor must have damaged your brain.
Hannibal suffered fewer defeats, lived longer, had more glorious victories and marches and did more with less. Caesar managed to take veterans to defeat against new recruits led by a man so predictable the 'pinnacle' of Caesarian strategy was to put up a line at Pharsalus because he knew a cavalry charge was coming.
Compare that to Cannae.
Disappointed to see Stamper's going.
Yeah, but like Gatland, you focus on one event, and ignore the bigger picture.
Cannae was a battle, but how did the second Punic War turn out?
It looks as if Letta and the Italian government are going to follow the Merkel-Cameron path to EU recovery and sideline the Troika and Citoyen Hollande's socialist solutions.
After presenting a plan to cut taxes and focus on growth on Monday, Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta has traveled to Berlin to sit down with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and discuss strategies to improve the Eurozone economy.
In his economic growth plan, which includes tax cuts for businesses, consumers and homeowners, Letta warned that to complete the programme “without a damaging tax hike", he'll have to cut government expenditures, "especially where it hurts”.
Letta's plan does not move directly against Merkel's call for austerity, but attempts to focus on spurring growth both in Italy and the Eurozone in general as the voices calling for an end to measures strangling peripheral countries become louder.
“In Europe and internationally, Italy will find strategies to boost growth without compromising the necessary process of restructuring public finances,” Letta explained.
Germany are likely to offer both Italy and Spain increased direct investment as a means of stimulating growth, while supporting their applications to the EU Commission to accepting fiscal holidays (tax cuts and deferred borrowing targets). Unlike Spain, Italy's problems are not so much the need to reduce its deficit as to generate growth: the Italian economy hasn't grown in 10 years.
I referenced Pharsalus, Dyrrachium, Cannae, the Alpine and Arnus marches, and the assassination of Caesar by his own side. Your numeracy is as lacking as your history!
Ask Marcellus, Varro, Aemilius, Sempronius, Flaminius and Crispinus what they made of Hannibal.
Have you come to a view of what the dividing line would be between major concessions that would be worth keeping us in and token concessions yet? You've said you'd think about it every time I've asked you.
For me personally, the absolute red line is protection of the City, our most important industry and the one area of the economy which has a decent chance of getting growth back on track anytime soon; if I felt staying in would damage the City, that would tip me into the Out camp. Currently our EU friends seem to be doing everything in their power to push me in that direction.
Of course I'm not typical either of the Conservative Party or the country in that respect; others would have different priorities.
My main point, though, is that what constitutes adequate concessions is now in the hands of voters, not politicians. If enough of them vote Conservative, they'll get the referendum. They can then decide whether to stay in or leave, on whatever terms are on offer. If they don't vote Conservative, we stay in and drift towards closer union, quite possibly with irreparable damage to the most important part of our economy. It's as simple as that.
It looks as if Letta and the Italian government are going to follow the Merkel-Cameron path to EU recovery and sideline the Troika and Citoyen Hollande's socialist solutions.
After presenting a plan to cut taxes and focus on growth on Monday, Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta has traveled to Berlin to sit down with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and discuss strategies to improve the Eurozone economy.
In his economic growth plan, which includes tax cuts for businesses, consumers and homeowners, Letta warned that to complete the programme “without a damaging tax hike", he'll have to cut government expenditures, "especially where it hurts”.
Letta's plan does not move directly against Merkel's call for austerity, but attempts to focus on spurring growth both in Italy and the Eurozone in general as the voices calling for an end to measures strangling peripheral countries become louder.
“In Europe and internationally, Italy will find strategies to boost growth without compromising the necessary process of restructuring public finances,” Letta explained.
Germany are likely to offer both Italy and Spain increased direct investment as a means of stimulating growth, while supporting their applications to the EU Commission to accepting fiscal holidays (tax cuts and deferred borrowing targets). Unlike Spain, Italy's problems are not so much the need to reduce its deficit as to generate growth: the Italian economy hasn't grown in 10 years.
Tax cuts to stimulate growth; direct investment to stimulate growth. Doesn't sound like George Osborne.
Cannae was a battle, but how did the second Punic War turn out?
Often, what makes the lions tour is good dirt trackers, the second fifteen who have to go out and win against Wangenui on Wednesday, whilst the test team is protected.
Not sure this lot will dirt track that well. There may be resentment that too many decisions have been made based on one match or on past form. Lydiate over Robshaw? don;t see it myself...
I referenced Pharsalus, Dyrrachium, Cannae, the Alpine and Arnus marches, and the assassination of Caesar by his own side. Your numeracy is as lacking as your history!
Ask Marcellus, Varro, Aemilius, Sempronius, Flaminius and Crispinus what they made of Hannibal.
You'll be pleased to know, for my next stint as guest Editor, I've half written a piece, which explores what UKIP and Labour can learn from the battle of Cannae and how they can avoid their own latter day Zama.
Cannae was a battle, but how did the second Punic War turn out?
Often, what makes the lions tour is good dirt trackers, the second fifteen who have to go out and win against Wangenui on Wednesday, whilst the test team is protected.
Not sure this lot will dirt track that well. There may be resentment that too many decisions have been made based on one match or on past form. Lydiate over Robshaw? don;t see it myself...
If Lydiate's healthy than I really do, incredible player (and a NG Dragon!)
Have you come to a view of what the dividing line would be between major concessions that would be worth keeping us in and token concessions yet? You've said you'd think about it every time I've asked you.
For me personally, the absolute red line is protection of the City, our most important industry and the one area of the economy which has a decent chance of getting growth back on track anytime soon; if I felt staying in would damage the City, that would tip me into the Out camp. Currently our EU friends seem to be doing everything in their power to push me in that direction.
Of course I'm not typical either of the Conservative Party or the country in that respect; others would have different priorities.
My main point, though, is that what constitutes adequate concessions is now in the hands of voters, not politicians. If enough of them vote Conservative, they'll get the referendum. They can then decide whether to stay in or leave, on whatever terms are on offer. If they don't vote Conservative, we stay in and drift towards closer union, quite possibly with irreparable damage to the most important part of our economy. It's as simple as that.
I've been discussing this story this morning, another red line?
EU insurance rules are 'shocking', says PRA chief Andrew Bailey
European rules for insurers have been slammed as “shocking” by the City’s most senior financial regulator, as Britain’s rift with its continental neighbours over how to govern financial services widened.
Take it from me: Cameron wouldn't last 5 minutes as leader of the party if he tried to weasel out of the referendum in the next parliament (assuming he has a majority and is thus in a position to deliver it, of course). In any case, Cameron would want to close down the issue,
If our EU friends don't want to play ball, they'd therefore have to take the risk that UK voters will opt to leave. Therefore, in practice what would happen is that, in the worst case, there would be some kind of token concessions offered by the EU. Voters would then decide whether to accept that settlement or not.
It's 2018. Cameron had looked shaky in the middle of the last parliament, but he turned it around and won a majority against the odds. The economy is growing nicely, Labour are feuding. The 28 are talking about a treaty, but it's now clear there won't be one for a while. A referendum now will result in either Out, which most Tory MPs don't want, or a mandate for In, which they don't want either. Are they going to knife their winner for not calling a referendum they don't want, when they may still get what they do want if they wait? Of course they're not.
And they say that kippers are living in fantasy land! None of us know what is going to happen tomorrow, let alone 2018. If wishes were fishes..........................
I referenced Pharsalus, Dyrrachium, Cannae, the Alpine and Arnus marches, and the assassination of Caesar by his own side. Your numeracy is as lacking as your history!
Ask Marcellus, Varro, Aemilius, Sempronius, Flaminius and Crispinus what they made of Hannibal.
Caesar was assassinated, but only after he'd become dictator of the greatest empire on Earth. How did hannibal's career pan out after his victories?
Apparently in Wiltshire there are 6 seats where only candidates of one party are standing. You can vote Tory or for a Tory ! I have had this locally where I wanted to vote for Labour or independent, but was met by a ballot sheet that only had Tory or Lib Dem candidates. Met with these option I spoiled the ballot sheet, saying ' none of these, lack of choice' .
Question: what vote share will be required to win the Euroelections next year, and what share will UKIP achieve?
I'm thinking that 30% *might* be enough to win and 35% certainly should be. If UKIP can poll 20% where they stand on Thursday, they may well be capable of reaching the thirties next year.
Apparently in Wiltshire there are 6 seats where only candidates of one party are standing. You can vote Tory or for a Tory ! I have had this locally where I wanted to vote for Labour or independent, but was met by a ballot sheet that only had Tory or Lib Dem candidates. Met with these option I spoiled the ballot sheet, saying ' none of these, lack of choice' .
You should have been more imaginative and wrote and insulting comment next to each candidate.
Mr. Eagles, isn't the EU also planning a pensions reform that would cost us a rather hefty sum?
Mr. Herdson, didn't Achilles say it was better to be the lowest man alive than the King of the Underworld? One corpse is much like another, whatever the colour of his boots.
Apparently in Wiltshire there are 6 seats where only candidates of one party are standing. You can vote Tory or for a Tory ! I have had this locally where I wanted to vote for Labour or independent, but was met by a ballot sheet that only had Tory or Lib Dem candidates. Met with these option I spoiled the ballot sheet, saying ' none of these, lack of choice' .
You should have been more imaginative and wrote and insulting comment next to each candidate.
I would have done so, had I though about it. But I was so fed up, after thinking about it for a few minutes and just spoilt it with big lines across the paper. The old ladies who were monitoring the station gave me funny looks, as to why it was taking more than 10 seconds, to put 2 X's against 4 candidates ( 2 Tory, 2 Lib Dems)
It is becoming clearer by the day that the failure to keep a veto on financial regulation was probably the biggest single blunder in the lamentable list of failures by the last government. It wouldn't even have been very hard; if they'd just said No, I don't think anyone else would have pressed it.
Where is Toby Young standing for election ? He isn't for any party. Gawd how complicated is it ?
Because the Tories helped Toby with his 'free school' project he is willing to go on any programme to say nice things about them.
And here's me thinking they were helping the kids at the school get a decent education.
I am a Labour supporter, but actually I think free schools are a good idea, providing they deliver a good standard of education and have a open/fair admissions policy.
And if it does work for VAT - why not income tax ?
"update: Ed Miliband did tell Daybreak this morning:
"I'm clear about this, a temporary cut in VAT – as we're proposing – would lead to a temporary rise in borrowing; the point I was making yesterday was that if you can get growth going by cutting VAT, then, over time, you'll see, actually, borrowing fall. That was the point I was making yesterday and it's good to be able to make it today.""
Unemployment in the eurozone has surged to a fresh record high, while inflation has fallen to a three-year low, boosting expectations that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates.
Unemployment in the 17 countries using the euro hit 12.1% in March, up from February's 12%, according to official figures from Eurostat.
In total, 19.2m people are now out of work in the region.
Separate Eurostat data showed that inflation slowed to 1.2% in April.
Greece and Spain recorded the highest unemployment rates in the eurozone, at 27.2% and 26.7% respectively, while Austria, at 4.7%, and Germany, at 5.4%, had the lowest rates.
Youth employment, defined as those under 25, hit 3.6 million in the eurozone. In Greece, 59.1% of under-25s were unemployed as of the end of January, while in Spain, 55.9% were unemployed.
Meanwhile, separate data from Eurostat showed consumer prices rose 1.2% in the year to April across the eurozone, a marked slowdown from March's 1.7% rise.
The slowdown, driven by a sharp fall in energy prices, means inflation in the eurozone is now at its lowest level since February 2010.
So will we see the four riders of the UKIPocalypse on Thursday or will it be a damp squib? I suspect they won't win too many but will cause the Tories to lose some. I couldn't begin to guess the scale of that, but it's the most interesting local elections for some time as a result.
Comments
"The Lockwood appointment reveals again that there are hacks who would rather be members of the political class than hold them to account."
Can someone pick the rattle off the floor?
And calling it a Pensioners Tax is ridiculous when at the moment the norm is that everyone *except* pensioners pays it.
Also, were NI and Income Tax merged, it's highly probable that the rate wouldn't be 12% as the extra catchment would enable a reduction in the rate.
FWIW, I think the government should have gone a long way towards this in its first budget, putting up *all* rates of income tax by 5p in its first 'emergency' budget (we're all in this together etc), and cutting NI on both employers and employees by 2p.
The most important scientific groups claiming man-made global warming is occurring are the 34 main national science academies, the 5 international science academies, the biggest physics and chemistry academies in Europe, the US and Australia, NASA, and the major meteorological organisations. Did any of them state an ice age was going to happen?
If it turns out that there are reasonably large numbers of UKIP councillors (some of whom might hold the balance of power in some councils), that will have consequences further down the line. Their performance, good or bad, will become part of the overall political picture over the next couple of years. That can be an opportunuity for them to build on, but it could also be a liability.
What makes this more than previously the case is the Cabinet system which John Prescott introduced in local councils, which has politicised them much more than was the case in the 1990s.
Mr Socrates,
"The oldies are so bloody molly coddled as a group."
You young 'uns.
As Tony Capstick said ...
"We'd lots o' things in them days they 'aven't got today - rickets, diphtheria, Hitler - and my, we did look well goin' to school wi' no backside in us trousers an' all us little 'eads painted purple because we 'ad ringworm.
They don't know they're born today."
How many seats do you think UKIP will win on Thursday. I have a modest bet with the Great Maggsy that it will be fewer than 75.
'Are you predicting that Milibands rating will fall relative to Cameron's next month?'
I'm predicting that Ed will do badly during a GE campaign.
If you listen to the Martha Kearney interview,which was not aggressive or difficult in terms of questions and yet Ed managed to tie himself in knots,contradict himself and not answer basic questions.
Assume Labour will ensure that Ed doesn't go anywhere near Paxman.
(1) Remaining in the EU, but with specific powers transferred back from Brussels to Westminster: 64% positive, 11% negative
(2) Leaving the EU, no trade treaty: 18% positive, 60% negative
(3) Leaving the EU, replacement trade treaty: 33% positive, 42% negative
(4) Integrating fully with the EU: 23% positive, 48% negative
(5) Status quo: 15% positive, 42% negative
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f116fbe0-a37f-11e2-8f9c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2RtNZuXjP
So Cameron's position is the most attractive to the BCC's members. If that isn't possible, leaving with a trade deal is the next best alternative.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/01/global-cooling-compilation/
http://burningourmoney.blogspot.co.uk/2010/07/prison-works.html
According to Home Office analysis of historical UK crime stats, half of all serious UK crime is committed by a group of 100,000 career criminals. "The group evolves over time, with fresh recruits replacing those who retire, but it seems to remain at around 100,000"
https://www.bitebackpublishing.com/books/burning-our-money-paperback
I'll butt out again now.
Meanwhile, strange people live in Don Valley
https://twitter.com/CarolineFlintMP/status/328841276684382211/photo/1
The Shields Gazette reports
Tory hopeful’s hospital pledge
‘Special Saturdays’ bid by Lewell-Buck
Celebrity politicians back independent (the celebrities are Galloway and Bell)
Party challenged to drop ‘Loony’ tag (the Socialist Independent Candidate thinks it is derogatory for people with mental issues)
Ed Balls backs Emma’s bid to be MP
Tributes after Coun Potts loses battle for life (the former Tory turned UKIP Cllr has died)
What not to say in an interview - a quick guide for MPs
After WATO: Miliband needs to be brave and put the economy before the politics
A shrinking state is a right-wing fantasy
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-22338343
"Children should be encouraged to take risks and make their own mistakes while they are still young enough to learn from them, a heads' leader says.
They should have time to play poker, drive go-karts and climb trees, says Christian Heinrich, chairman of the Boarding Schools' Association."
Also - rEd will be hidden, then he will get goaded for hiding, then he will come out and perhaps not the next interview but one soon he will get a reaming in front of a bigger audience.
The interview was not the killer - it was the sharp reminder to all the "experts" who had been bigging up that Labour picked the "right brother" - how metro-elite , unpleasant , economically illiterate and leftwing dear old rEd is - and how ugly a GE campaign will be for someone of his very limited appeal will be.
The inverse correlation of prison places versus crime looks impressive but fails to account for similar falls elsewhere, and does not distinguish between crimes that carry prison sentences from those that do not.
No Jonny or Chris Robshaw in the Lions squad but that bike cheat Healy is.
Come on Australia.
** and that includes the wonderful Mark Easton, BBC - who reckons -600.000 white Brits in London 2001-11 signified rising incomes and zero "white flight"!
*** Unfortunately I have no vote on Thursday
Cameron was wrong when he labelled them racist, clearly they are Anti-Semites and homephobes.
*Innocent Face*
So "this" refers to all the other stuff he's said in his speech, which is based on the "I am confident I will win the lottery, and when I do I will give you they money I owe you" weasel.
When this happens our loyalist Tory friends will be happy to dig out the full transcript for you which includes the question as well as the answer, and explain that you're falling for Labour propaganda in thinking he made a promise, and that if you read the speech it's all perfectly clear that the referendum is subject to the renegotiation and the completion of the treaty, because it would be a false choice to ask people if they wanted to be in or out until the meaning of "in" is clear, which it won't be until the completion of the discussions on the future of the EU now scheduled to begin in 2021, etc etc etc.
Couldn't give a toss about some silly static poll analysis tim - the GE is the one that matters - and rEd is kryptonite a la Brown.
And Helicopter Parents (i.e. those which constantly hover over their child) need to back the f*ck off and let them fall over once in a while. Buy some elastoplasts and extol the virtues of a good scab. All children under the age of 9 should have at least one graze and at least 50% of their clothes marked with grass stains.
I counted three individual scientists - Arnold Reitze, Madaleine Briskin and Hubert Lamb - that actually predicted a global cooling, although one of them said the full impact was 10,000 years away. There were another 8 or 9 who said it may happen, although this included people like Cesare Emiliani who refused to speculate what the long term would be, others who said it would be "for only a few years time".
Other articles were laughably included, including one about a scientist who simply said pollution was happening but we'd have to know more about how it would affect the environment and in which direction, one about a science fiction story, and one about the views of a crazy old woman who buried herself underground.
At no point in any of the articles did any scientific academy give its opinion. So we have three scientists saying global cooling then versus dozens of scientific academies saying global warming now.
Take it from me: Cameron wouldn't last 5 minutes as leader of the party if he tried to weasel out of the referendum in the next parliament (assuming he has a majority and is thus in a position to deliver it, of course). In any case, Cameron would want to close down the issue,
If our EU friends don't want to play ball, they'd therefore have to take the risk that UK voters will opt to leave. Therefore, in practice what would happen is that, in the worst case, there would be some kind of token concessions offered by the EU. Voters would then decide whether to accept that settlement or not.
I'm amazed you're that sad, frankly.
The difficulty is that of translating share into seats -the old LIb Dem problem.
If UKIP polled their current national share say 14% in the locals but totally flat in distribution then they would win zilch.However there are reasons to suggest UIKIP may poll higher in Th Counties than their national vote share.In 2009 the Lib Dems,the party of protest then polled 25%, 6% more than their ICM share at the time.UKIP in the sets they fought roughly 25% polled a mean of 16%.( although possibly boosted a little,because the local and European electioins coincided) Butit is not inconcievable that UKIPs mean share in the seats they figt could rise to ov 20%e.The other factor in gaining seat is that there were a significant number of seats where UKIP wer elaraedy in second place usaully to the Tories ,and some where share wasover 20%.
If w eassume a 10% swing from Con to UKIP the any Tory seat with a vote share of under 40% in2009i s vulnerable.Futher there are liklely in 2013, given the likely swings, to be anumber of 3 or even 4 way marginals where a vote share in the 25%-33% may be suffucent to win.
Hence O would still foirecat arpound 100 UKIP gains largely from the CONS.
I agree with Another Richard's analysis. UKIP voters are the sort of people who the main party leaders aren't terribly interested in, and rarely encounter. So, they've concluded that they might as well vote for a party that does take an interest in them. Attacks on UKIP council candidates will just generate the response "they would say that, wouldn't they?" among such voters.
There will, no doubt, come a time when UKIP's policies will come under real scrutiny, but not yet.
And, for those who do expect them just to crash and burn, it didn't happen with the DUP, or the Reform Party of Canada.
I suppose there is a way to thread the needle, but it is much, much more tenuous than last time and he'd get murdered for doing it. Besides, I don't think it matters that much. Cameron will be kaput after the next election, and no-ones going to be elected party leader without committing to a referendum on this.
He's got Unite and er....
Presumably the Lions management is not expecting any injuries through the whole tour !!
Zahawi came to Stratford-upon-Avon from Iraq via Sussex.
As for GO acolyte or unbridled criticism of GO, I think that he walked out to bat to avoid a follow-on and you are criticising him for not winning the Belgian Grand Prix.
Who cares if Cam gets 35.99 or 36.01 - as long as it isn't a Labour PM..
Wilkinson shouldn't have gone though, too long out of international rugby imho.
As for Robshaw, all the flankers that got in ahead of them are better.
There's only one thing a proud English rugby fan can do this summer, support Australia.
Gatland is a gambler and this is definitely a gambler's selection. No Robshaw, Wilko and Warburton as captain.
Some in the press will be sharpening the knives as we speak, ready for if the wheels come off.
My generation (born in the 80s) was probably the last to grow up at least partly without computer games and when gadgets were at a minimum. I was never really into sport but was still fairly active, whereas if I'd been born 8 years or so ago I might very well be a massive couch potato. It must be very hard for parents, because even if they limit the access of their kids to tablets (as in iPads), mobiles and consoles their children will probably get access at school or with their friends.
Honestly comparing Gatland to Sir Clive, it's like saying Hannibal is superior to Caesar.
Only the terminally stupid or biased could come to such a conclusion.
Don't expect any excuses on behalf of Dave from him (of course they should have got on James Delingpole who recently penned an "I've sent my sons to Eton" mea culpa).
Hannibal suffered fewer defeats, lived longer, had more glorious victories and marches and did more with less. Caesar managed to take veterans to defeat against new recruits led by a man so predictable the 'pinnacle' of Caesarian strategy was to put up a line at Pharsalus because he knew a cavalry charge was coming.
Compare that to Cannae.
Disappointed to see Stamper's going.
After presenting a plan to cut taxes and focus on growth on Monday, Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta has traveled to Berlin to sit down with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and discuss strategies to improve the Eurozone economy.
In his economic growth plan, which includes tax cuts for businesses, consumers and homeowners, Letta warned that to complete the programme “without a damaging tax hike", he'll have to cut government expenditures, "especially where it hurts”.
Letta's plan does not move directly against Merkel's call for austerity, but attempts to focus on spurring growth both in Italy and the Eurozone in general as the voices calling for an end to measures strangling peripheral countries become louder.
“In Europe and internationally, Italy will find strategies to boost growth without compromising the necessary process of restructuring public finances,” Letta explained.
Germany are likely to offer both Italy and Spain increased direct investment as a means of stimulating growth, while supporting their applications to the EU Commission to accepting fiscal holidays (tax cuts and deferred borrowing targets). Unlike Spain, Italy's problems are not so much the need to reduce its deficit as to generate growth: the Italian economy hasn't grown in 10 years.
Cannae was a battle, but how did the second Punic War turn out?
Six plead guilty to plotting attack on EDL rally
The men, all from the West Midlands, had planned to target an English Defence League rally in Dewsbury but turned up after it had finished.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/apr/30/six-plead-guilty-plot-edl
Jobseekers made to carry out bogus psychometric tests
Unemployed people are told they risk losing benefits if they fail to carry out meaningless questionnaire
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2013/apr/30/jobseekers-bogus-psychometric-tests-unemployed
We won't be far behind them. Pots, kettles etc.
I referenced Pharsalus, Dyrrachium, Cannae, the Alpine and Arnus marches, and the assassination of Caesar by his own side. Your numeracy is as lacking as your history!
Ask Marcellus, Varro, Aemilius, Sempronius, Flaminius and Crispinus what they made of Hannibal.
Of course I'm not typical either of the Conservative Party or the country in that respect; others would have different priorities.
My main point, though, is that what constitutes adequate concessions is now in the hands of voters, not politicians. If enough of them vote Conservative, they'll get the referendum. They can then decide whether to stay in or leave, on whatever terms are on offer. If they don't vote Conservative, we stay in and drift towards closer union, quite possibly with irreparable damage to the most important part of our economy. It's as simple as that.
Often, what makes the lions tour is good dirt trackers, the second fifteen who have to go out and win against Wangenui on Wednesday, whilst the test team is protected.
Not sure this lot will dirt track that well. There may be resentment that too many decisions have been made based on one match or on past form. Lydiate over Robshaw? don;t see it myself...
EU insurance rules are 'shocking', says PRA chief Andrew Bailey
European rules for insurers have been slammed as “shocking” by the City’s most senior financial regulator, as Britain’s rift with its continental neighbours over how to govern financial services widened.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/10026361/EU-insurance-rules-are-shocking-says-PRA-chief-Andrew-Bailey.html
I'm thinking that 30% *might* be enough to win and 35% certainly should be. If UKIP can poll 20% where they stand on Thursday, they may well be capable of reaching the thirties next year.
http://www.out-law.com/en/articles/2013/april/solvency-ii-costs-in-line-with-worst-case-scenario-for-uk-pensions-says-minister/
Mr. Herdson, didn't Achilles say it was better to be the lowest man alive than the King of the Underworld? One corpse is much like another, whatever the colour of his boots.
Come on, Ed Miliband – be brave and make the case for borrowing
His World at One interview showed Miliband wriggling over the economy. But the public is receptive to an alternative to austerity
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/30/ed-miliband-borrowing-case
It is becoming clearer by the day that the failure to keep a veto on financial regulation was probably the biggest single blunder in the lamentable list of failures by the last government. It wouldn't even have been very hard; if they'd just said No, I don't think anyone else would have pressed it.
And if it does work for VAT - why not income tax ?
"update: Ed Miliband did tell Daybreak this morning:
"I'm clear about this, a temporary cut in VAT – as we're proposing – would lead to a temporary rise in borrowing; the point I was making yesterday was that if you can get growth going by cutting VAT, then, over time, you'll see, actually, borrowing fall. That was the point I was making yesterday and it's good to be able to make it today.""
Unemployment in the 17 countries using the euro hit 12.1% in March, up from February's 12%, according to official figures from Eurostat.
In total, 19.2m people are now out of work in the region.
Separate Eurostat data showed that inflation slowed to 1.2% in April.
Greece and Spain recorded the highest unemployment rates in the eurozone, at 27.2% and 26.7% respectively, while Austria, at 4.7%, and Germany, at 5.4%, had the lowest rates.
Youth employment, defined as those under 25, hit 3.6 million in the eurozone. In Greece, 59.1% of under-25s were unemployed as of the end of January, while in Spain, 55.9% were unemployed.
Meanwhile, separate data from Eurostat showed consumer prices rose 1.2% in the year to April across the eurozone, a marked slowdown from March's 1.7% rise.
The slowdown, driven by a sharp fall in energy prices, means inflation in the eurozone is now at its lowest level since February 2010.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22353726