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Not much joy for the Tories in the 2023 polls – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,803
edited January 2023 in General
Not much joy for the Tories in the 2023 polls – politicalbetting.com

If Sunak and his party had been hoping that the new year would bring at least an indication that things were getting better then so far they have been disappointed. All the polls this year have LAB leads of 20% or more and the changes have been mostly in line with the margin of error.

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    FPT
    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    In the House of Commons is the father/mother of the House who conducts proceedings when a speaker hasn't been elected. This isn't the oldest MP, it's the one who's been there the longest.

    Always been the Father of the House up to now. No woman has ever been longest serving MP.

    Although Beckett is the member of the House elected earliest, as you note that doesn't count as she was out of the house for four years.
    I have a vague memory that it was Gwyneth Dunwoody a few years back?

    Obviously I could look this up and find out either way. But I never miss an opportunity to raise a memory of Gwyneth Dunwoody.
    I think she had the same thing of being the earliest elected but not serving continuously.
  • Options
    The Hill - House Speaker vote: McCarthy, Roy reach tentative deal on Day 4 of stalemate

    Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said on a GOP conference call Thursday morning he has made progress on negotiations with Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and others who have not been supporting him for Speaker.

    But the tentative deal is not finalized with all of the holdouts, and McCarthy stressed that the deal was still tentative.

    The House is set to reconvene at noon for its fourth day without a Speaker and try for the 12th time to elect one.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3802149-house-speaker-election-coverage-mccarthy-allies-hope-to-hammer-out-deal-on-day-4-of-stalemate/

    SSI - Believe it only AFTER you see some evidence of it in the next roll call.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,586
    Driver said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    In the House of Commons is the father/mother of the House who conducts proceedings when a speaker hasn't been elected. This isn't the oldest MP, it's the one who's been there the longest.

    Always been the Father of the House up to now. No woman has ever been longest serving MP.

    Although Beckett is the member of the House elected earliest, as you note that doesn't count as she was out of the house for four years.
    I have a vague memory that it was Gwyneth Dunwoody a few years back?

    Obviously I could look this up and find out either way. But I never miss an opportunity to raise a memory of Gwyneth Dunwoody.
    I think she had the same thing of being the earliest elected but not serving continuously.
    She was out of Parliament from 1966 to 1970.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,133
    edited January 2023
    Isn't the current Mother of the House of Commons = Jacob Rees-Moog?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,858

    The Hill - House Speaker vote: McCarthy, Roy reach tentative deal on Day 4 of stalemate

    Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said on a GOP conference call Thursday morning he has made progress on negotiations with Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and others who have not been supporting him for Speaker.

    But the tentative deal is not finalized with all of the holdouts, and McCarthy stressed that the deal was still tentative.

    The House is set to reconvene at noon for its fourth day without a Speaker and try for the 12th time to elect one.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3802149-house-speaker-election-coverage-mccarthy-allies-hope-to-hammer-out-deal-on-day-4-of-stalemate/

    SSI - Believe it only AFTER you see some evidence of it in the next roll call.

    I have a tenner on him @ evens to get there eventually. Good bet iyo?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    edited January 2023
    dixiedean said:

    Driver said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    In the House of Commons is the father/mother of the House who conducts proceedings when a speaker hasn't been elected. This isn't the oldest MP, it's the one who's been there the longest.

    Always been the Father of the House up to now. No woman has ever been longest serving MP.

    Although Beckett is the member of the House elected earliest, as you note that doesn't count as she was out of the house for four years.
    I have a vague memory that it was Gwyneth Dunwoody a few years back?

    Obviously I could look this up and find out either way. But I never miss an opportunity to raise a memory of Gwyneth Dunwoody.
    I think she had the same thing of being the earliest elected but not serving continuously.
    She was out of Parliament from 1966 to 1970.
    70 to 74, actually.

    Left a big scar on her psyche. She was always alarmed about LAbour's complacency. Even more so than Blair and Campbell.

    Edit - even if she had served continuously, at the time of her death Alan Williams (who was elected in 1964) would still have had longer service.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,887

    The Hill - House Speaker vote: McCarthy, Roy reach tentative deal on Day 4 of stalemate

    Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said on a GOP conference call Thursday morning he has made progress on negotiations with Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and others who have not been supporting him for Speaker.

    But the tentative deal is not finalized with all of the holdouts, and McCarthy stressed that the deal was still tentative.

    The House is set to reconvene at noon for its fourth day without a Speaker and try for the 12th time to elect one.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3802149-house-speaker-election-coverage-mccarthy-allies-hope-to-hammer-out-deal-on-day-4-of-stalemate/

    SSI - Believe it only AFTER you see some evidence of it in the next roll call.

    Sounds to me if it’s still ‘tentative’ we’ll be having the same Groundhog Day votes at 5pm.

    What does tentative mean anyway? You’ve got a deal or you haven’t.

  • Options
    kinabalu said:

    The Hill - House Speaker vote: McCarthy, Roy reach tentative deal on Day 4 of stalemate

    Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said on a GOP conference call Thursday morning he has made progress on negotiations with Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and others who have not been supporting him for Speaker.

    But the tentative deal is not finalized with all of the holdouts, and McCarthy stressed that the deal was still tentative.

    The House is set to reconvene at noon for its fourth day without a Speaker and try for the 12th time to elect one.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3802149-house-speaker-election-coverage-mccarthy-allies-hope-to-hammer-out-deal-on-day-4-of-stalemate/

    SSI - Believe it only AFTER you see some evidence of it in the next roll call.

    I have a tenner on him @ evens to get there eventually. Good bet iyo?
    No. BUT note that yours truly NEVER bets on elections. BECAUSE find that I'm WRONG too often!
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,218
    ChatGPT is really quite good at the translation lark, when it is in the mood


    Me: Translate "I am a cat and I eat mice"

    AI: Here is the requested translation:

    Cornish:

    M'yw kath hag yw dha lerghi

    Georgian:

    მე კოტაა და მე მზერებს ვერხვირებ.

    Coptic:

    ⲉⲧⲏⲥⲟⲩ ⲛⲉⲙⲛⲩⲏⲛⲉ ⲛⲏⲥ ⲡⲓⲣⲟⲩⲛⲏⲥ

    Sanskrit:

    अहम् मानवः अस्मि अहं मरुः भोजनं च खादयामि

    Old Norse:

    Ég er köttur og ég borða mý

    Megrelian:

    მე კოტა მეგობრებს

    Armenian:

    Ես կոտ եմ և կենդանիներ ուտում եմ

    Saami:

    Mun lean káhtta ja mun johtan mieđđi

    Tibetan:

    ངའི་དམར་ཆེན་པོ་བདུན་ཞིག་རྣམས་སྤྱོད་མེད

    Thai:

    ฉันคือแมวและฉันกินเมาส์

    Rapa Nui:

    Ko hau kaua, e ko hau kei kai kepu

    Urdu:

    میں ایک گربہ ہوں اور میں جوتے ہیں

    Geez:

    አንተ ከሴትና ከሴቶችን እሃይ

    Myanma:

    ကြ်န္ေတာ္တို႔က်န္သားကိုယ္တိုင္ရာအေရးေတြကိုေရာက္ရင္းပါတယ္

    Sinhala:

    මට පුංචි මහන්සියි

    Hmong:

    Kuv yog tsis txhob kawm tsis txhob

    Mongolian:

    Би цайвар энэ ба би маргаан ажиллуулах юм


    Klingon:

    qaStaHvIS cat yIghItlh

    Note: The Klingon language does not have a specific word for "mice," so the word "ghItlh" (meaning "small creature") was used instead.

    +++

    Now, I am sure Google Translate can do much if not all of this, but seeing ChatGPT churn this out simultaneously and in a few seconds does feel magical

  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,368
    After today's readings from @PeoplePolling & @Omnisis our post-#Brexit poll of polls stands at 'In EU' 58 (+1); 'Out EU' 42 (-1). https://bit.ly/3DbYoL4
  • Options

    The Hill - House Speaker vote: McCarthy, Roy reach tentative deal on Day 4 of stalemate

    Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said on a GOP conference call Thursday morning he has made progress on negotiations with Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and others who have not been supporting him for Speaker.

    But the tentative deal is not finalized with all of the holdouts, and McCarthy stressed that the deal was still tentative.

    The House is set to reconvene at noon for its fourth day without a Speaker and try for the 12th time to elect one.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3802149-house-speaker-election-coverage-mccarthy-allies-hope-to-hammer-out-deal-on-day-4-of-stalemate/

    SSI - Believe it only AFTER you see some evidence of it in the next roll call.

    Sounds to me if it’s still ‘tentative’ we’ll be having the same Groundhog Day votes at 5pm.

    What does tentative mean anyway? You’ve got a deal or you haven’t.

    Reckon the real question re: any deal re: Speaker, is just how many of the rebels will go along to get along.

    Kevin could win (bribe) MOST of the 21 hold-outs, and STILL not achieve a majority.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,120
    On topic. Is there historical polling to compare under 50% of last times support remaining on board, such as yougov 42%, with previous parliaments entering 4th year? It seems very very low.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,237
    More 19thC imperialism parallels.

    Putin's crony Prigozhin wants control over salt & gypsum mines around Bakhmut - Reuters

    The obsession with which the mercenary group Wagner attacks Bakhmut is driven by Prigozhin's interest in capturing natural resources worth millions of US dollars.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1611389840989487105
  • Options
    Leon said:

    ChatGPT is really quite good at the translation lark, when it is in the mood


    Me: Translate "I am a cat and I eat mice"

    AI: Here is the requested translation:

    Cornish:

    M'yw kath hag yw dha lerghi

    Georgian:

    მე კოტაა და მე მზერებს ვერხვირებ.

    Coptic:

    ⲉⲧⲏⲥⲟⲩ ⲛⲉⲙⲛⲩⲏⲛⲉ ⲛⲏⲥ ⲡⲓⲣⲟⲩⲛⲏⲥ

    Sanskrit:

    अहम् मानवः अस्मि अहं मरुः भोजनं च खादयामि

    Old Norse:

    Ég er köttur og ég borða mý

    Megrelian:

    მე კოტა მეგობრებს

    Armenian:

    Ես կոտ եմ և կենդանիներ ուտում եմ

    Saami:

    Mun lean káhtta ja mun johtan mieđđi

    Tibetan:

    ངའི་དམར་ཆེན་པོ་བདུན་ཞིག་རྣམས་སྤྱོད་མེད

    Thai:

    ฉันคือแมวและฉันกินเมาส์

    Rapa Nui:

    Ko hau kaua, e ko hau kei kai kepu

    Urdu:

    میں ایک گربہ ہوں اور میں جوتے ہیں

    Geez:

    አንተ ከሴትና ከሴቶችን እሃይ

    Myanma:

    ကြ်န္ေတာ္တို႔က်န္သားကိုယ္တိုင္ရာအေရးေတြကိုေရာက္ရင္းပါတယ္

    Sinhala:

    මට පුංචි මහන්සියි

    Hmong:

    Kuv yog tsis txhob kawm tsis txhob

    Mongolian:

    Би цайвар энэ ба би маргаан ажиллуулах юм


    Klingon:

    qaStaHvIS cat yIghItlh

    Note: The Klingon language does not have a specific word for "mice," so the word "ghItlh" (meaning "small creature") was used instead.

    +++

    Now, I am sure Google Translate can do much if not all of this, but seeing ChatGPT churn this out simultaneously and in a few seconds does feel magical

    Have you the foggiest idea if any of that is even vaguely correct?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,218
    edited January 2023
    On checking, Google Translate does NOT offer Coptic, Old Norse, Cornish, Saami, Tibetan, Rapa Nui, Geez, Hmong, Sumerian or Klingon so ChatGPT really is doing something impressive here. If the translations are accurate, of course
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,218

    Leon said:

    ChatGPT is really quite good at the translation lark, when it is in the mood


    Me: Translate "I am a cat and I eat mice"

    AI: Here is the requested translation:

    Cornish:

    M'yw kath hag yw dha lerghi

    Georgian:

    მე კოტაა და მე მზერებს ვერხვირებ.

    Coptic:

    ⲉⲧⲏⲥⲟⲩ ⲛⲉⲙⲛⲩⲏⲛⲉ ⲛⲏⲥ ⲡⲓⲣⲟⲩⲛⲏⲥ

    Sanskrit:

    अहम् मानवः अस्मि अहं मरुः भोजनं च खादयामि

    Old Norse:

    Ég er köttur og ég borða mý

    Megrelian:

    მე კოტა მეგობრებს

    Armenian:

    Ես կոտ եմ և կենդանիներ ուտում եմ

    Saami:

    Mun lean káhtta ja mun johtan mieđđi

    Tibetan:

    ངའི་དམར་ཆེན་པོ་བདུན་ཞིག་རྣམས་སྤྱོད་མེད

    Thai:

    ฉันคือแมวและฉันกินเมาส์

    Rapa Nui:

    Ko hau kaua, e ko hau kei kai kepu

    Urdu:

    میں ایک گربہ ہوں اور میں جوتے ہیں

    Geez:

    አንተ ከሴትና ከሴቶችን እሃይ

    Myanma:

    ကြ်န္ေတာ္တို႔က်န္သားကိုယ္တိုင္ရာအေရးေတြကိုေရာက္ရင္းပါတယ္

    Sinhala:

    මට පුංචි මහන්සියි

    Hmong:

    Kuv yog tsis txhob kawm tsis txhob

    Mongolian:

    Би цайвар энэ ба би маргаан ажиллуулах юм


    Klingon:

    qaStaHvIS cat yIghItlh

    Note: The Klingon language does not have a specific word for "mice," so the word "ghItlh" (meaning "small creature") was used instead.

    +++

    Now, I am sure Google Translate can do much if not all of this, but seeing ChatGPT churn this out simultaneously and in a few seconds does feel magical

    Have you the foggiest idea if any of that is even vaguely correct?
    ... is a very good question. Google Translate CAN do Mongolian and it claims the phrase Би цайвар энэ ба би маргаан ажиллуулах юм is actually

    "I pale this and I will run the argument"

    So, no, on that basis. Let me check another
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101

    According to today's Census info, I reckon I may be in the 'gayest' area in the country. Over 20% LGBO. Mind you, I thought it might be higher. We are, I think, the only straights on our street.

    Not called Camptown for nothing….
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,088
    edited January 2023
    Nigelb said:

    More 19thC imperialism parallels.

    Putin's crony Prigozhin wants control over salt & gypsum mines around Bakhmut - Reuters

    The obsession with which the mercenary group Wagner attacks Bakhmut is driven by Prigozhin's interest in capturing natural resources worth millions of US dollars.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1611389840989487105

    You don't need to go back to the 19th century for examples of war over the control of natural resources.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,586
    Nigelb said:

    More 19thC imperialism parallels.

    Putin's crony Prigozhin wants control over salt & gypsum mines around Bakhmut - Reuters

    The obsession with which the mercenary group Wagner attacks Bakhmut is driven by Prigozhin's interest in capturing natural resources worth millions of US dollars.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1611389840989487105

    What possible use could they have for a salt mine?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,218
    The Old Norse and Armenian are right, the Sinhala and Myanma are completely wrong (as per Google)
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,368
    Turns out that the extreme version of this really would be worse than Trussonomics: deliberate default on US govt debt
    (As explained by the ever excellent @johnauthers).
    But surely the Republicans saw the Truss experiment and won't want a repeat?? https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1610745957024469004
  • Options
    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    More 19thC imperialism parallels.

    Putin's crony Prigozhin wants control over salt & gypsum mines around Bakhmut - Reuters

    The obsession with which the mercenary group Wagner attacks Bakhmut is driven by Prigozhin's interest in capturing natural resources worth millions of US dollars.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1611389840989487105

    What possible use could they have for a salt mine?
    Got to have somewhere to send the political unreliables.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    Wings taking a pop at James Kelly, late of this parish:

    https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1611382124883628033
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,416
    Leon said:

    On checking, Google Translate does NOT offer Coptic, Old Norse, Cornish, Saami, Tibetan, Rapa Nui, Geez, Hmong, Sumerian or Klingon so ChatGPT really is doing something impressive here. If the translations are accurate, of course

    Your Sinhala phrase means "I'm a little tired" according to Google Translate. I could see if some of my Sinhalese relatives can offer an alternative translation. According to Google Translate your phrase should read මම පූසෙක් මම මීයන් කනවා, and from my limited knowledge of Sinhala I know that the word for cat is correct in that translation.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,218

    Leon said:

    On checking, Google Translate does NOT offer Coptic, Old Norse, Cornish, Saami, Tibetan, Rapa Nui, Geez, Hmong, Sumerian or Klingon so ChatGPT really is doing something impressive here. If the translations are accurate, of course

    Your Sinhala phrase means "I'm a little tired" according to Google Translate. I could see if some of my Sinhalese relatives can offer an alternative translation. According to Google Translate your phrase should read මම පූසෙක් මම මීයන් කනවා, and from my limited knowledge of Sinhala I know that the word for cat is correct in that translation.
    Indeed, it seems at least half of them are wrong - often entirely wrong, and a bit crazy - yet others are right (and not necessarily the easier ones)


    Fascinating. It does show how this machine will churn out plausible bullshit, when in the mood, and to make it worse the bullshit is mixed with impressive accuracy. Dangerous!

    I wonder how it chooses the phrases to invent?! That's intriguing by itself
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,237

    Nigelb said:

    More 19thC imperialism parallels.

    Putin's crony Prigozhin wants control over salt & gypsum mines around Bakhmut - Reuters

    The obsession with which the mercenary group Wagner attacks Bakhmut is driven by Prigozhin's interest in capturing natural resources worth millions of US dollars.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1611389840989487105

    You don't need to go back to the 19th century for examples of war over the control of natural resources.
    The war is very much an imperialist project.
    This is just a private operator, acting as an arm of the state, looking to exploit resources on the side.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,096
    Leon said:

    ChatGPT is really quite good at the translation lark, when it is in the mood


    Me: Translate "I am a cat and I eat mice"

    AI: Here is the requested translation:

    Cornish:

    M'yw kath hag yw dha lerghi

    Georgian:

    მე კოტაა და მე მზერებს ვერხვირებ.

    Coptic:

    ⲉⲧⲏⲥⲟⲩ ⲛⲉⲙⲛⲩⲏⲛⲉ ⲛⲏⲥ ⲡⲓⲣⲟⲩⲛⲏⲥ

    Sanskrit:

    अहम् मानवः अस्मि अहं मरुः भोजनं च खादयामि

    Old Norse:

    Ég er köttur og ég borða mý

    Megrelian:

    მე კოტა მეგობრებს

    Armenian:

    Ես կոտ եմ և կենդանիներ ուտում եմ

    Saami:

    Mun lean káhtta ja mun johtan mieđđi

    Tibetan:

    ངའི་དམར་ཆེན་པོ་བདུན་ཞིག་རྣམས་སྤྱོད་མེད

    Thai:

    ฉันคือแมวและฉันกินเมาส์

    Rapa Nui:

    Ko hau kaua, e ko hau kei kai kepu

    Urdu:

    میں ایک گربہ ہوں اور میں جوتے ہیں

    Geez:

    አንተ ከሴትና ከሴቶችን እሃይ

    Myanma:

    ကြ်န္ေတာ္တို႔က်န္သားကိုယ္တိုင္ရာအေရးေတြကိုေရာက္ရင္းပါတယ္

    Sinhala:

    මට පුංචි මහන්සියි

    Hmong:

    Kuv yog tsis txhob kawm tsis txhob

    Mongolian:

    Би цайвар энэ ба би маргаан ажиллуулах юм


    Klingon:

    qaStaHvIS cat yIghItlh

    Note: The Klingon language does not have a specific word for "mice," so the word "ghItlh" (meaning "small creature") was used instead.

    +++

    Now, I am sure Google Translate can do much if not all of this, but seeing ChatGPT churn this out simultaneously and in a few seconds does feel magical

    I mean, if ever there was a reason for legitimate use of the "flag" button for spam - this is getting pretty bloody close.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,218

    Leon said:

    ChatGPT is really quite good at the translation lark, when it is in the mood


    Me: Translate "I am a cat and I eat mice"

    AI: Here is the requested translation:

    Cornish:

    M'yw kath hag yw dha lerghi

    Georgian:

    მე კოტაა და მე მზერებს ვერხვირებ.

    Coptic:

    ⲉⲧⲏⲥⲟⲩ ⲛⲉⲙⲛⲩⲏⲛⲉ ⲛⲏⲥ ⲡⲓⲣⲟⲩⲛⲏⲥ

    Sanskrit:

    अहम् मानवः अस्मि अहं मरुः भोजनं च खादयामि

    Old Norse:

    Ég er köttur og ég borða mý

    Megrelian:

    მე კოტა მეგობრებს

    Armenian:

    Ես կոտ եմ և կենդանիներ ուտում եմ

    Saami:

    Mun lean káhtta ja mun johtan mieđđi

    Tibetan:

    ངའི་དམར་ཆེན་པོ་བདུན་ཞིག་རྣམས་སྤྱོད་མེད

    Thai:

    ฉันคือแมวและฉันกินเมาส์

    Rapa Nui:

    Ko hau kaua, e ko hau kei kai kepu

    Urdu:

    میں ایک گربہ ہوں اور میں جوتے ہیں

    Geez:

    አንተ ከሴትና ከሴቶችን እሃይ

    Myanma:

    ကြ်န္ေတာ္တို႔က်န္သားကိုယ္တိုင္ရာအေရးေတြကိုေရာက္ရင္းပါတယ္

    Sinhala:

    මට පුංචි මහන්සියි

    Hmong:

    Kuv yog tsis txhob kawm tsis txhob

    Mongolian:

    Би цайвар энэ ба би маргаан ажиллуулах юм


    Klingon:

    qaStaHvIS cat yIghItlh

    Note: The Klingon language does not have a specific word for "mice," so the word "ghItlh" (meaning "small creature") was used instead.

    +++

    Now, I am sure Google Translate can do much if not all of this, but seeing ChatGPT churn this out simultaneously and in a few seconds does feel magical

    I mean, if ever there was a reason for legitimate use of the "flag" button for spam - this is getting pretty bloody close.
    Mate, it's a slow news day. This is literally a thread saying "the Tories are doing badly"

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,096
    Scott_xP said:

    After today's readings from @PeoplePolling & @Omnisis our post-#Brexit poll of polls stands at 'In EU' 58 (+1); 'Out EU' 42 (-1). https://bit.ly/3DbYoL4

    The most interesting finding today, though, is how those numbers change when you throw FoM back in or Schengen - and that's before you get to the Euro.

    Personally, such is the polarisation of Brexit that I think it spikes support of the euro in a forced choice from c. 10-15% of the electorate up to potentially 30-35% of the electorate, maybe even a bit higher, but doesn't get to 50%+1.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,218
    The Thai is right, the Urdu is half right, the Hmong is wrong, the Klingon is apparently a bit right

    The Ge'ez looks suspect
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,096

    Wings taking a pop at James Kelly, late of this parish:

    https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1611382124883628033

    It's a bit sad how some people live for likes and hits.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101

    Scott_xP said:

    After today's readings from @PeoplePolling & @Omnisis our post-#Brexit poll of polls stands at 'In EU' 58 (+1); 'Out EU' 42 (-1). https://bit.ly/3DbYoL4

    The most interesting finding today, though, is how those numbers change when you throw FoM back in or Schengen - and that's before you get to the Euro.

    Personally, such is the polarisation of Brexit that I think it spikes support of the euro in a forced choice from c. 10-15% of the electorate up to potentially 30-35% of the electorate, maybe even a bit higher, but doesn't get to 50%+1.
    This week, to throw light on how misleading some of the polls are, I decided to give two different samples of British adults two different versions of the same question. One sample were presented with the standard and simplistic choice of Re-Join or Stay Out. The other were presented with the same choice but only after being told what Re-Joining the EU would mean in practice, namely ‘re-joining the single market, joining the Schengen Area, accepting the free movement of EU nationals, applying EU laws, and paying into the EU budget in proportion to the size of Britain’s economy’.


    Whereas the first group, who are given no information, give Re-Join a commanding lead of 12-points, in the second group this lead is slashed to a barely statistically significant 4-points. The key point is that once voters are made aware of the fact that Re-Joining the EU will inevitably entail a lot of things they do not like, from even more immigration to sending more payments to Brussels, their appetite for it significantly weakens and the race becomes as competitive as many of the polls ahead of the referendum in 2016 —and we all know how that race ended.


    https://mattgoodwin.substack.com/p/why-im-sceptical-of-rejoinerism
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,368

    The key point is that once voters are made aware of the fact that Re-Joining the EU will inevitably entail a lot of things they do not like, from even more immigration to sending more payments to Brussels, their appetite for it significantly weakens

    A long way of saying the Euro, Shengen and FoM is MORE popular than his Brexit shitshow
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,009
    edited January 2023
    I no longer buy the take that Keir had no policy. He’s slowly building up a modest tower of policy bricks.

    One area of notable weakness, though, is Foreign Affairs, even if they have been sound enough on Ukraine. According to my inside source, there is basically NO foreign policy worth the name and they’ve had to get Jonathan Powell in to help the shadow cabinet get up to speed.

    Keir and Blair don’t really get on, but Keir is happy to use a range of ex-Blairites to fill the gaps.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,858
    Leon said:

    The Thai is right, the Urdu is half right, the Hmong is wrong, the Klingon is apparently a bit right

    The Ge'ez looks suspect

    Agreed. It's fine in its comfort zone but collapses when challenged. A flat track bully.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,009
    Scott_xP said:

    The key point is that once voters are made aware of the fact that Re-Joining the EU will inevitably entail a lot of things they do not like, from even more immigration to sending more payments to Brussels, their appetite for it significantly weakens

    A long way of saying the Euro, Shengen and FoM is MORE popular than his Brexit shitshow
    They were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,210
    edited January 2023
    Scott_xP said:

    The key point is that once voters are made aware of the fact that Re-Joining the EU will inevitably entail a lot of things they do not like, from even more immigration to sending more payments to Brussels, their appetite for it significantly weakens

    A long way of saying the Euro, Shengen and FoM is MORE popular than his Brexit shitshow
    But only just. ;)
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,237
    Leon said:

    The Thai is right, the Urdu is half right, the Hmong is wrong, the Klingon is apparently a bit right...

    They'd be offended to be only "a bit right".
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,009
    edited January 2023
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The key point is that once voters are made aware of the fact that Re-Joining the EU will inevitably entail a lot of things they do not like, from even more immigration to sending more payments to Brussels, their appetite for it significantly weakens

    A long way of saying the Euro, Shengen and FoM is MORE popular than his Brexit shitshow
    But only just. ;)
    Schengen would be awesome.

    Imagine getting on a train in Birmingham and waking up in Paris.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,368
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The key point is that once voters are made aware of the fact that Re-Joining the EU will inevitably entail a lot of things they do not like, from even more immigration to sending more payments to Brussels, their appetite for it significantly weakens

    A long way of saying the Euro, Shengen and FoM is MORE popular than his Brexit shitshow
    But only just. ;)
    The trend is only going one way
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,218
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    The Thai is right, the Urdu is half right, the Hmong is wrong, the Klingon is apparently a bit right

    The Ge'ez looks suspect

    Agreed. It's fine in its comfort zone but collapses when challenged. A flat track bully.
    It’s more complex than that. It definitely bullshits. It can be quite uncanny:



    Me: Generate a crazily random comment for an internet forum devoted to betting on politics

    "I just saw a UFO fly past my window and it was piloted by a giant hamster wearing a top hat. It whispered to me that the key to winning the election lies in the power of the accordion. I know it sounds crazy, but you can't deny the power of the accordion!"


    We were talking about accordions earlier
  • Options
    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    .
    Scott_xP said:

    The key point is that once voters are made aware of the fact that Re-Joining the EU will inevitably entail a lot of things they do not like, from even more immigration to sending more payments to Brussels, their appetite for it significantly weakens

    A long way of saying the Euro, Shengen and FoM is MORE popular than his Brexit shitshow
    In the same way that Remain was MORE popular than Leave through the entire pre-referendum period. Until it came to be time to vote...
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The key point is that once voters are made aware of the fact that Re-Joining the EU will inevitably entail a lot of things they do not like, from even more immigration to sending more payments to Brussels, their appetite for it significantly weakens

    A long way of saying the Euro, Shengen and FoM is MORE popular than his Brexit shitshow
    But only just. ;)
    Schengen would be awesome.

    Imagine getting on a train in Birmingham and waking up in Paris.
    If you go to sleep at Birmingham, prepare to have no valuables whatsoever left on you by about Coventry.
  • Options
    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The key point is that once voters are made aware of the fact that Re-Joining the EU will inevitably entail a lot of things they do not like, from even more immigration to sending more payments to Brussels, their appetite for it significantly weakens

    A long way of saying the Euro, Shengen and FoM is MORE popular than his Brexit shitshow
    But only just. ;)
    Schengen would be awesome.

    Imagine getting on a train in Birmingham and waking up in Paris.
    That doesn't need Schengen.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,009
    Scott_xP said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The key point is that once voters are made aware of the fact that Re-Joining the EU will inevitably entail a lot of things they do not like, from even more immigration to sending more payments to Brussels, their appetite for it significantly weakens

    A long way of saying the Euro, Shengen and FoM is MORE popular than his Brexit shitshow
    But only just. ;)
    The trend is only going one way
    Maybe. Although I see the new copium is that inertia will inevitably settle in once the economy improves/energy prices subside/the Tories are thrown out etc.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,876
    Driver said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The key point is that once voters are made aware of the fact that Re-Joining the EU will inevitably entail a lot of things they do not like, from even more immigration to sending more payments to Brussels, their appetite for it significantly weakens

    A long way of saying the Euro, Shengen and FoM is MORE popular than his Brexit shitshow
    But only just. ;)
    Schengen would be awesome.

    Imagine getting on a train in Birmingham and waking up in Paris.
    That doesn't need Schengen.
    It does - otherwise you need a french border at Birmingham.

    otherwise it's the same as the Eurostar from Amsterdam to London which features a lovely walk at Brussels to go through British border control
  • Options

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The key point is that once voters are made aware of the fact that Re-Joining the EU will inevitably entail a lot of things they do not like, from even more immigration to sending more payments to Brussels, their appetite for it significantly weakens

    A long way of saying the Euro, Shengen and FoM is MORE popular than his Brexit shitshow
    But only just. ;)
    Schengen would be awesome.

    Imagine getting on a train in Birmingham and waking up in Paris.
    What is this "getting on a train" magic of which you speak?
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,368

    Scott_xP said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The key point is that once voters are made aware of the fact that Re-Joining the EU will inevitably entail a lot of things they do not like, from even more immigration to sending more payments to Brussels, their appetite for it significantly weakens

    A long way of saying the Euro, Shengen and FoM is MORE popular than his Brexit shitshow
    But only just. ;)
    The trend is only going one way
    Maybe. Although I see the new copium is that inertia will inevitably settle in once the economy improves/energy prices subside/the Tories are thrown out etc.
    It would be ironic, and funny as fuck, if Brexit ultimately leads to us joining the Euro
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,009
    Driver said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The key point is that once voters are made aware of the fact that Re-Joining the EU will inevitably entail a lot of things they do not like, from even more immigration to sending more payments to Brussels, their appetite for it significantly weakens

    A long way of saying the Euro, Shengen and FoM is MORE popular than his Brexit shitshow
    But only just. ;)
    Schengen would be awesome.

    Imagine getting on a train in Birmingham and waking up in Paris.
    That doesn't need Schengen.
    OK, imagine stepping on a train at New Street, hopping aboard the Paris bound sleeper and, after waking up, skipping onto the platform at Gare de Nord.

    Schengen’s a waste of time.
    We should replace it with spot checks or something.

  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,539

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The key point is that once voters are made aware of the fact that Re-Joining the EU will inevitably entail a lot of things they do not like, from even more immigration to sending more payments to Brussels, their appetite for it significantly weakens

    A long way of saying the Euro, Shengen and FoM is MORE popular than his Brexit shitshow
    But only just. ;)
    Schengen would be awesome.

    Imagine getting on a train in Birmingham and waking up in Paris.
    A mere jaunt for JohnO.....
  • Options
    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    edited January 2023
    eek said:

    Driver said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The key point is that once voters are made aware of the fact that Re-Joining the EU will inevitably entail a lot of things they do not like, from even more immigration to sending more payments to Brussels, their appetite for it significantly weakens

    A long way of saying the Euro, Shengen and FoM is MORE popular than his Brexit shitshow
    But only just. ;)
    Schengen would be awesome.

    Imagine getting on a train in Birmingham and waking up in Paris.
    That doesn't need Schengen.
    It does - otherwise you need a french border at Birmingham.

    otherwise it's the same as the Eurostar from Amsterdam to London which features a lovely walk at Brussels to go through British border control
    That seems like bad design. Last time I crossed an international border by rail they did the passport control on the train.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,009
    edited January 2023
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The key point is that once voters are made aware of the fact that Re-Joining the EU will inevitably entail a lot of things they do not like, from even more immigration to sending more payments to Brussels, their appetite for it significantly weakens

    A long way of saying the Euro, Shengen and FoM is MORE popular than his Brexit shitshow
    But only just. ;)
    The trend is only going one way
    Maybe. Although I see the new copium is that inertia will inevitably settle in once the economy improves/energy prices subside/the Tories are thrown out etc.
    It would be ironic, and funny as fuck, if Brexit ultimately leads to us joining the Euro
    Personally the Euro is a blocker for me. I wouldn’t want to surrender the monetary autonomy, nor the potential constraints on fiscal sovereignty.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,855
    ydoethur said:

    Wings taking a pop at James Kelly, late of this parish:

    https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1611382124883628033

    It's a bit sad how some people live for likes and hits.
    I agree. It's silly the way we all chase cheap likes.

    Please like this post if you concur.
    Define 'cheap'. I'm happy to provide an expensive likes service, say £100/like?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,568
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The key point is that once voters are made aware of the fact that Re-Joining the EU will inevitably entail a lot of things they do not like, from even more immigration to sending more payments to Brussels, their appetite for it significantly weakens

    A long way of saying the Euro, Shengen and FoM is MORE popular than his Brexit shitshow
    But only just. ;)
    Schengen would be awesome.

    Imagine getting on a train in Birmingham and waking up in Paris.
    If you go to sleep at Birmingham, prepare to have no valuables whatsoever left on you by about Coventry.
    “Well, officer, it seems that he stole my extremely valuable Imperial Japanese Navy* land mine collection. Along with my emotional support salt water crocodile. It’s going to be hard to work out what happened…”

    *Yes, the IJN had their own type of land mines.
  • Options
    WillGWillG Posts: 2,223
    UK foreign policy should be all over this:

    https://www.asahi.com/sp/ajw/articles/14808689
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,876

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The key point is that once voters are made aware of the fact that Re-Joining the EU will inevitably entail a lot of things they do not like, from even more immigration to sending more payments to Brussels, their appetite for it significantly weakens

    A long way of saying the Euro, Shengen and FoM is MORE popular than his Brexit shitshow
    But only just. ;)
    Schengen would be awesome.

    Imagine getting on a train in Birmingham and waking up in Paris.
    What is this "getting on a train" magic of which you speak?
    Given the current strikes - What is this train thing of which you speak?
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,855
    Leon said:

    The Old Norse and Armenian are right, the Sinhala and Myanma are completely wrong (as per Google)

    The scary thing is, when all translation is AI driven, the AI will decide the meaning and us mere humans will have to conform.

    Imagine living in some out of the way tourist trap with a little known language. Smartphone using westerners turn up demanding the rancid pigeon meat while pointing at the ice cream. Pretty soon 'rancid pigeon meat' is the de facto term for ice cream.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    The Thai is right, the Urdu is half right, the Hmong is wrong, the Klingon is apparently a bit right

    The Ge'ez looks suspect

    Agreed. It's fine in its comfort zone but collapses when challenged. A flat track bully.
    It’s more complex than that. It definitely bullshits. It can be quite uncanny:



    Me: Generate a crazily random comment for an internet forum devoted to betting on politics

    "I just saw a UFO fly past my window and it was piloted by a giant hamster wearing a top hat. It whispered to me that the key to winning the election lies in the power of the accordion. I know it sounds crazy, but you can't deny the power of the accordion!"


    We were talking about accordions earlier
    Have you tried Chrome (the browser) instantly subtitling videos?

    If anyone has not seen it, Chrome menu (three dots) > settings > accessibility > turn on live caption

    Chrome will then download some small files, and from then on will add a subtitles box to any videos you watch.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,404
    ydoethur said:

    Wings taking a pop at James Kelly, late of this parish:

    https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1611382124883628033

    It's a bit sad how some people live for likes and hits.
    I agree. It's silly the way we all chase cheap likes.

    Please like this post if you concur.
    I find the more I try for one the less I get - people can smell the desperation.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,218

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    The Thai is right, the Urdu is half right, the Hmong is wrong, the Klingon is apparently a bit right

    The Ge'ez looks suspect

    Agreed. It's fine in its comfort zone but collapses when challenged. A flat track bully.
    It’s more complex than that. It definitely bullshits. It can be quite uncanny:



    Me: Generate a crazily random comment for an internet forum devoted to betting on politics

    "I just saw a UFO fly past my window and it was piloted by a giant hamster wearing a top hat. It whispered to me that the key to winning the election lies in the power of the accordion. I know it sounds crazy, but you can't deny the power of the accordion!"


    We were talking about accordions earlier
    Have you tried Chrome (the browser) instantly subtitling videos?

    If anyone has not seen it, Chrome menu (three dots) > settings > accessibility > turn on live caption

    Chrome will then download some small files, and from then on will add a subtitles box to any videos you watch.
    I haven't. Sounds impressive!

    AI/tech is in a period of speedy and astonishing change. There is a good chance GPT4 (supposedly launching in 2023) will pass the Turing Test with ease. That will be an epochal moment for humanity, tho we might not realise for a while
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,404

    Nigelb said:

    More 19thC imperialism parallels.

    Putin's crony Prigozhin wants control over salt & gypsum mines around Bakhmut - Reuters

    The obsession with which the mercenary group Wagner attacks Bakhmut is driven by Prigozhin's interest in capturing natural resources worth millions of US dollars.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1611389840989487105

    You don't need to go back to the 19th century for examples of war over the control of natural resources.
    True, though it being so blatant, and the sheer desire to seize and forever hold territory without any other serious goal (despite many contradictory excuses) has made this war unusual in recent decades for most Europeans at least. The recent flare ups in Azerbaijan and Armenia were but a taster.
  • Options
    WillGWillG Posts: 2,223
    Driver said:

    .

    Scott_xP said:

    The key point is that once voters are made aware of the fact that Re-Joining the EU will inevitably entail a lot of things they do not like, from even more immigration to sending more payments to Brussels, their appetite for it significantly weakens

    A long way of saying the Euro, Shengen and FoM is MORE popular than his Brexit shitshow
    In the same way that Remain was MORE popular than Leave through the entire pre-referendum period. Until it came to be time to vote...
    I suspect most people don't know what Schengen is. With the extra information of "proponents say it makes travel easier to our neighbors, opponents say it means there will be no way of stopping anyone arriving in Greece from getting into Britain", I think that argument would swing hard.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,237
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Wings taking a pop at James Kelly, late of this parish:

    https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1611382124883628033

    It's a bit sad how some people live for likes and hits.
    I agree. It's silly the way we all chase cheap likes.

    Please like this post if you concur.
    I find the more I try for one the less I get - people can smell the desperation.
    Gave you a like for the clear desperation there.
  • Options
    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Wings taking a pop at James Kelly, late of this parish:

    https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1611382124883628033

    It's a bit sad how some people live for likes and hits.
    I agree. It's silly the way we all chase cheap likes.

    Please like this post if you concur.
    I find the more I try for one the less I get - people can smell the desperation.
    For a minute then I thought you weren't talking about likes.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,404
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Wings taking a pop at James Kelly, late of this parish:

    https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1611382124883628033

    It's a bit sad how some people live for likes and hits.
    I agree. It's silly the way we all chase cheap likes.

    Please like this post if you concur.
    I find the more I try for one the less I get - people can smell the desperation.
    Gave you a like for the clear desperation there.
    I shall sleep soundly tonight as a result.
  • Options
    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    The Old Norse and Armenian are right, the Sinhala and Myanma are completely wrong (as per Google)

    The scary thing is, when all translation is AI driven, the AI will decide the meaning and us mere humans will have to conform.

    Imagine living in some out of the way tourist trap with a little known language. Smartphone using westerners turn up demanding the rancid pigeon meat while pointing at the ice cream. Pretty soon 'rancid pigeon meat' is the de facto term for ice cream.
    My fear is that the bollox these AI algorithms come out with will still end up being fed back into the internet, and the AIs will then be using their own dodgy output as their knowledge base. It'll be a death loop, eventually rendering the internet unusable as a source of information.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Wings taking a pop at James Kelly, late of this parish:

    https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1611382124883628033

    It's a bit sad how some people live for likes and hits.
    I agree. It's silly the way we all chase cheap likes.

    Please like this post if you concur.
    I find the more I try for one the less I get - people can smell the desperation.
    Gave you a like for the clear desperation there.
    I shall sleep soundly tonight as a result.
    I've liked it as well, so that should see you through the weekend.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    The Old Norse and Armenian are right, the Sinhala and Myanma are completely wrong (as per Google)

    The scary thing is, when all translation is AI driven, the AI will decide the meaning and us mere humans will have to conform.

    Imagine living in some out of the way tourist trap with a little known language. Smartphone using westerners turn up demanding the rancid pigeon meat while pointing at the ice cream. Pretty soon 'rancid pigeon meat' is the de facto term for ice cream.
    My fear is that the bollox these AI algorithms come out with will still end up being fed back into the internet, and the AIs will then be using their own dodgy output as their knowledge base. It'll be a death loop, eventually rendering the internet unusable as a source of information.
    That ship has already long sailed...
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,954
    And here we go again...McCarthy nominated for a tenth time
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,133
    edited January 2023
    Kevin McCarthy back to having mediocre nominators.

    Addendum - Current hack just praise Capitol Police - what a fucking hypocrite!
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    IanB2 said:

    And here we go again...McCarthy nominated for a tenth time

    This is officially sillier than a Monty Python sketch.

    Where's the late, great Graham Chapman when you need him?
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    NYT live blog:

    McCarthy, again trailed by a chaotic scrum of reporters, has entered the chamber. “Watch here and you’ll see some people who have been voting against me voting for me.”
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,887
    edited January 2023

    NYT live blog:

    McCarthy, again trailed by a chaotic scrum of reporters, has entered the chamber. “Watch here and you’ll see some people who have been voting against me voting for me.”

    Well he’d better hope that’s the case now he’s said it!
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    This numpty keeps going on about "patriots" apparently unaware that HIS PARTY has turned the word into a sad, bad joke.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,858
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    The Thai is right, the Urdu is half right, the Hmong is wrong, the Klingon is apparently a bit right

    The Ge'ez looks suspect

    Agreed. It's fine in its comfort zone but collapses when challenged. A flat track bully.
    It’s more complex than that. It definitely bullshits. It can be quite uncanny:

    Me: Generate a crazily random comment for an internet forum devoted to betting on politics

    "I just saw a UFO fly past my window and it was piloted by a giant hamster wearing a top hat. It whispered to me that the key to winning the election lies in the power of the accordion. I know it sounds crazy, but you can't deny the power of the accordion!"

    We were talking about accordions earlier
    Yes that's very good isn't it.
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    ydoethur said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    The Old Norse and Armenian are right, the Sinhala and Myanma are completely wrong (as per Google)

    The scary thing is, when all translation is AI driven, the AI will decide the meaning and us mere humans will have to conform.

    Imagine living in some out of the way tourist trap with a little known language. Smartphone using westerners turn up demanding the rancid pigeon meat while pointing at the ice cream. Pretty soon 'rancid pigeon meat' is the de facto term for ice cream.
    My fear is that the bollox these AI algorithms come out with will still end up being fed back into the internet, and the AIs will then be using their own dodgy output as their knowledge base. It'll be a death loop, eventually rendering the internet unusable as a source of information.
    That ship has already long sailed...
    But it's soon to be massively exacerbated. How long before the AI zealots start updating Wikipedia with 'new knowledge' they think they've been told by told by a chat-bot but which is in fact just grammatically acceptable gobbledygook?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,954
    Jeffries nominated again...
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,073
    Nigelb said:

    More 19thC imperialism parallels.

    Putin's crony Prigozhin wants control over salt & gypsum mines around Bakhmut - Reuters

    The obsession with which the mercenary group Wagner attacks Bakhmut is driven by Prigozhin's interest in capturing natural resources worth millions of US dollars.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1611389840989487105

    Bit like America currently looting millions of barrels of oil out of Syria.
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    Must say, FAR more Americans care about THIS story, than about the GOP's Flying Flea Circus:

    The Hill - Damar Hamlin breathing on his own, FaceTimes into team meeting, Bills say

    The breathing tube for Buffalo Bills player Damar Hamlin has been removed, and he is able to speak to his family and medical team, the Bills announced Friday.

    The Bills tweeted that physicians at the University of Cincinnati Medical Center, where Hamlin has been since he collapsed during Monday night’s game against the Bengals, said his tube was removed overnight.

    The team said he is continuing to “progress remarkably” and his neurologic function remains intact.

    The Bills also tweeted that Hamlin FaceTimed in during a team meeting on Friday to talk with the players and coaches.

    “Love you boys,” he reportedly said.

    Hamlin fell to the ground during the first quarter of the Monday Night Football game after tackling a Bills player. He initially got up after the tackle but moments later collapsed.

    He needed to be resuscitated on the field and was later taken in an ambulance to the hospital after experiencing cardiac arrest.

    The NFL initially postponed the game following the incident and announced on Friday that it would be canceled. It has proposed plans to adjust for how the game’s cancellation could potentially affect playoff positioning.

    Players on both teams were visibly shaken after Hamlin received CPR.

    Hamlin’s fundraiser that he created to support a toy drive for his community has raised almost $8 million since the game Monday, far surpassing its $2,500 goal. The description on its GoFundMe page notes that the fundraiser received renewed support in light of Hamlin’s “current battle.”

    https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/3802377-damar-hamlin-breathing-on-his-own-facetimes-into-team-meeting-bills-say/


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    Nigelb said:

    More 19thC imperialism parallels.

    Putin's crony Prigozhin wants control over salt & gypsum mines around Bakhmut - Reuters

    The obsession with which the mercenary group Wagner attacks Bakhmut is driven by Prigozhin's interest in capturing natural resources worth millions of US dollars.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1611389840989487105

    Bit like America currently looting millions of barrels of oil out of Syria.
    Source?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,568

    Nigelb said:

    More 19thC imperialism parallels.

    Putin's crony Prigozhin wants control over salt & gypsum mines around Bakhmut - Reuters

    The obsession with which the mercenary group Wagner attacks Bakhmut is driven by Prigozhin's interest in capturing natural resources worth millions of US dollars.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1611389840989487105

    Bit like America currently looting millions of barrels of oil out of Syria.
    Source?
    He's referring to the Syrian Kurds doing their own oil deals, rather than all the money going to The Bash.
  • Options
    Gaetz - "Is this an exercise in vanity?"

    Does he mean Kevin McCarthy - or Matt Gaetz???
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,954
    edited January 2023
    And the key intervention, Rep rebel nominates Jordan, with a speech attacking McCarthy directly, saying he will never get the votes to become Speaker...and making a direct reference to the 'neutral' Speaker of the British parliament

    Next another rebel Boebert nominates Hern, again
  • Options
    WillGWillG Posts: 2,223

    Nigelb said:

    More 19thC imperialism parallels.

    Putin's crony Prigozhin wants control over salt & gypsum mines around Bakhmut - Reuters

    The obsession with which the mercenary group Wagner attacks Bakhmut is driven by Prigozhin's interest in capturing natural resources worth millions of US dollars.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1611389840989487105

    Bit like America currently looting millions of barrels of oil out of Syria.
    Source?
    He's referring to the Syrian Kurds doing their own oil deals, rather than all the money going to The Bash.
    So not looting at all then. And not at all equivalent to Ukraine, given the Kurds are the native population there and the Russians in Ukraine are not.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,404
    edited January 2023

    NYT live blog:

    McCarthy, again trailed by a chaotic scrum of reporters, has entered the chamber. “Watch here and you’ll see some people who have been voting against me voting for me.”

    Well he’d better hope that’s the case now he’s said it!
    It is the anniversary of Patriot Day, when Republican supporters showed their love of Congress and the Constitution, so it would be appropriate for them to switch.
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    WillGWillG Posts: 2,223
    If you fail a dozen times to be elected speaker then you should probably step down and let someone else have a go.
  • Options
    WillGWillG Posts: 2,223
    kle4 said:

    NYT live blog:

    McCarthy, again trailed by a chaotic scrum of reporters, has entered the chamber. “Watch here and you’ll see some people who have been voting against me voting for me.”

    Well he’d better hope that’s the case now he’s said it!
    It is the anniversary of Patriot Day, when Republican supporters showed their love of Congress and the Constitution, so it would be appropriate for them to switch.
    The day when they waved the Traitor's Cross on the floor of the Senate?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,954
    And so the vote gets underway, with the four nominated candidates....
  • Options
    Matt Gaetz is an oleaginous slime-ball, but he DOES have a good point, when he says that Kevin's toddies keep making argument that all the GOP rebels REALLY care about, is getting plum committee assignments and other personal gratifications.

    When same is clearly true of KMcC's peanut gallery!
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,073

    Nigelb said:

    More 19thC imperialism parallels.

    Putin's crony Prigozhin wants control over salt & gypsum mines around Bakhmut - Reuters

    The obsession with which the mercenary group Wagner attacks Bakhmut is driven by Prigozhin's interest in capturing natural resources worth millions of US dollars.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1611389840989487105

    Bit like America currently looting millions of barrels of oil out of Syria.
    Source?
    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1274786.shtml

    And it would seem, DJT in 2019:

    “We’re keeping [Syria’s] oil. We have the oil. The oil is secure. We left troops behind only for the oil.”
    https://orinocotribune.com/us-steals-more-than-80-of-syrias-daily-oil-production/

  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,954
    edited January 2023
    Of the four 'B' rebels, one for Jordan, one switches to McCarthy....

    One for Hern, and another switches to McCarthy
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,073

    Nigelb said:

    More 19thC imperialism parallels.

    Putin's crony Prigozhin wants control over salt & gypsum mines around Bakhmut - Reuters

    The obsession with which the mercenary group Wagner attacks Bakhmut is driven by Prigozhin's interest in capturing natural resources worth millions of US dollars.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1611389840989487105

    Bit like America currently looting millions of barrels of oil out of Syria.
    Source?
    He's referring to the Syrian Kurds doing their own oil deals, rather than all the money going to The Bash.
    No I am not.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,421
    edited January 2023
    WillG said:

    If you fail a dozen times to be elected speaker then you should probably step down and let someone else have a go.

    You would. I would. That's why we're not Speaker of the House.

    You don't get to be Speaker of the House if you give up at the twelfth hurdle.
  • Options
    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    Nigelb said:

    More 19thC imperialism parallels.

    Putin's crony Prigozhin wants control over salt & gypsum mines around Bakhmut - Reuters

    The obsession with which the mercenary group Wagner attacks Bakhmut is driven by Prigozhin's interest in capturing natural resources worth millions of US dollars.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1611389840989487105

    Bit like America currently looting millions of barrels of oil out of Syria.
    Source?
    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1274786.shtml

    And it would seem, DJT in 2019:

    “We’re keeping [Syria’s] oil. We have the oil. The oil is secure. We left troops behind only for the oil.”
    https://orinocotribune.com/us-steals-more-than-80-of-syrias-daily-oil-production/

    Those two most reliable of sources, a website run by the Communist Party of China and Donald Trump.
  • Options

    Nigelb said:

    More 19thC imperialism parallels.

    Putin's crony Prigozhin wants control over salt & gypsum mines around Bakhmut - Reuters

    The obsession with which the mercenary group Wagner attacks Bakhmut is driven by Prigozhin's interest in capturing natural resources worth millions of US dollars.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1611389840989487105

    Bit like America currently looting millions of barrels of oil out of Syria.
    Source?
    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1274786.shtml

    And it would seem, DJT in 2019:

    “We’re keeping [Syria’s] oil. We have the oil. The oil is secure. We left troops behind only for the oil.”
    https://orinocotribune.com/us-steals-more-than-80-of-syrias-daily-oil-production/

    An impeccable source for sure.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,218

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    The Old Norse and Armenian are right, the Sinhala and Myanma are completely wrong (as per Google)

    The scary thing is, when all translation is AI driven, the AI will decide the meaning and us mere humans will have to conform.

    Imagine living in some out of the way tourist trap with a little known language. Smartphone using westerners turn up demanding the rancid pigeon meat while pointing at the ice cream. Pretty soon 'rancid pigeon meat' is the de facto term for ice cream.
    My fear is that the bollox these AI algorithms come out with will still end up being fed back into the internet, and the AIs will then be using their own dodgy output as their knowledge base. It'll be a death loop, eventually rendering the internet unusable as a source of information.
    Deep Fakery and everything associated with it is about to become an enormous problem
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,073

    Nigelb said:

    More 19thC imperialism parallels.

    Putin's crony Prigozhin wants control over salt & gypsum mines around Bakhmut - Reuters

    The obsession with which the mercenary group Wagner attacks Bakhmut is driven by Prigozhin's interest in capturing natural resources worth millions of US dollars.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1611389840989487105

    Bit like America currently looting millions of barrels of oil out of Syria.
    Source?
    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1274786.shtml

    And it would seem, DJT in 2019:

    “We’re keeping [Syria’s] oil. We have the oil. The oil is secure. We left troops behind only for the oil.”
    https://orinocotribune.com/us-steals-more-than-80-of-syrias-daily-oil-production/

    An impeccable source for sure.
    Sadly it hasn't appeared on the front page of the Washington Post for some reason.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    The Old Norse and Armenian are right, the Sinhala and Myanma are completely wrong (as per Google)

    The scary thing is, when all translation is AI driven, the AI will decide the meaning and us mere humans will have to conform.

    Imagine living in some out of the way tourist trap with a little known language. Smartphone using westerners turn up demanding the rancid pigeon meat while pointing at the ice cream. Pretty soon 'rancid pigeon meat' is the de facto term for ice cream.
    My fear is that the bollox these AI algorithms come out with will still end up being fed back into the internet, and the AIs will then be using their own dodgy output as their knowledge base. It'll be a death loop, eventually rendering the internet unusable as a source of information.
    Deep Fakery and everything associated with it is about to become an enormous problem
    "about to become"?????

    Have you never heard of Donald J Trump?
This discussion has been closed.