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R&W find almost no change since before Christmas – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,219
edited January 2023 in General
R&W find almost no change since before Christmas – politicalbetting.com

Labour leads by 20% in 1st poll of 2023, up from a 3% lead in 1st poll of 2022. Westminster VI (2-3 Jan):Labour 47% (+1)Conservative 27% (-2)Liberal Democrat 12% (+3)Reform UK 5% (-2)SNP 4% (+1)Green 3% (-2)Other 1% (-1)Changes +/- 11 Dechttps://t.co/AKVWIP5UGO pic.twitter.com/CjoKty38OI

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Comments

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,807
    edited January 2023
    First like Labour!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,807
    Second like McCarthy
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,811
    It's good to know there's nothing important happening in politics tonight.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    Trump is losing it more and more, and the GOP by the looks of it.

    Donald Trump’s recent comments about abortion as a political issue show the former president has lost his ability to read Republican voters, a veteran Trump campaign insider said.

    In messages seen by the Guardian, the operative said: “Trump has no political skills left. His team is a joke. The ship is sinking.”

    Trump kicked off his latest scrap with his own party on his Truth Social platform on Sunday, saying: “It wasn’t my fault that the Republicans didn’t live up to expectations in the midterms.”

    On the contrary, most observers suggest Trump’s refusal to admit defeat in 2020 and endorsement of backers of his election fraud lie contributed to Republican disappointments in November, including barely scraping a House majority, failing to take the Senate and losing key races in battleground states.

    Trump said: “It was the ‘abortion issue’, poorly handled by many Republicans, especially those that firmly insisted on no exceptions, even in the case of rape, incest, or life of the mother, that lost large numbers of voters.”

    In this instance, most observers would agree. It is generally held that Dobbs v Jackson, the supreme court ruling handed down in June which ended federal abortion rights, had a tangible effect at the ballot box.

    Trump also complained that “people that pushed so hard, for decades, against abortion, got their wish from the US supreme court and just plain disappeared, not to be seen again”, and said the Republican leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, had been “stupid” in how he spent campaign cash.

    The comments prompted criticism from the political right.

    The Fox News contributor Ben Domenech said it was “hard to express how many false things Trump says in this one ‘truth’”.

    He listed stringently anti-abortion Republicans who won, contested Trump’s claim that candidates supported no-exception bans and said Trump should have spent his own money to boost candidates such as Kari Lake, the election denier defeated for governor in Arizona.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/03/donald-trump-abortion-midterms-republicans
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    God bless the GOP for their comedy tonight, they owe us after their failed insurrection on January 6th 2021.

    Honestly I see no downside for the Republican rebels in not stringing it out as long as possible. What harm can it do them to make McCarthy sweat it out for 5 or 6 votes?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,811
    It's impressive that the Republicans not only can't take the Senate but they can't elect a Speaker even though they have a majority.

    I mean, this is Keystone Cops levels of incompetence.

    Heck, it's getting close to Susan Acland-Hood levels.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,173
    LibDem surge?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,807
    According to the BBC, in 1856 it took 133 ballots over the course of two months until Nathaniel Banks became House Speaker in the 34th Congress.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Trump is losing it more and more, and the GOP by the looks of it.

    Donald Trump’s recent comments about abortion as a political issue show the former president has lost his ability to read Republican voters, a veteran Trump campaign insider said.

    In messages seen by the Guardian, the operative said: “Trump has no political skills left. His team is a joke. The ship is sinking.”

    Trump kicked off his latest scrap with his own party on his Truth Social platform on Sunday, saying: “It wasn’t my fault that the Republicans didn’t live up to expectations in the midterms.”

    On the contrary, most observers suggest Trump’s refusal to admit defeat in 2020 and endorsement of backers of his election fraud lie contributed to Republican disappointments in November, including barely scraping a House majority, failing to take the Senate and losing key races in battleground states.

    Trump said: “It was the ‘abortion issue’, poorly handled by many Republicans, especially those that firmly insisted on no exceptions, even in the case of rape, incest, or life of the mother, that lost large numbers of voters.”

    In this instance, most observers would agree. It is generally held that Dobbs v Jackson, the supreme court ruling handed down in June which ended federal abortion rights, had a tangible effect at the ballot box.

    Trump also complained that “people that pushed so hard, for decades, against abortion, got their wish from the US supreme court and just plain disappeared, not to be seen again”, and said the Republican leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, had been “stupid” in how he spent campaign cash.

    The comments prompted criticism from the political right.

    The Fox News contributor Ben Domenech said it was “hard to express how many false things Trump says in this one ‘truth’”.

    He listed stringently anti-abortion Republicans who won, contested Trump’s claim that candidates supported no-exception bans and said Trump should have spent his own money to boost candidates such as Kari Lake, the election denier defeated for governor in Arizona.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/03/donald-trump-abortion-midterms-republicans

    Trump has always belittled other Republicans, then they've bent the knee to him anyway. But even his amazing hold on much of the base simply has to be tested seeing him throw endless temper tantrums, taking credit for everything he likes and deflecting blame on everything he does not, whilst spending his time trying to rake in money to fight legal cases, most of them the result of his own big mouth or ineptitude.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,481
    edited January 2023
    Can the Dems not agree to vote for a more moderate Rep candidate?
    Or is that too simple?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,173
    They’re going to be in there all night at this rate
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,811
    edited January 2023
    dixiedean said:

    Can the Dems not agree to vote for a more moderate Rep candidate?
    Or is that too simple?

    They wouldn't be a Republican candidate for long. Being supported by the Dems, or even not stridently opposed to them, is a sure way to get primaried by the Nazis.

    Exhibit A - Liz Cheney.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    ydoethur said:

    It's impressive that the Republicans not only can't take the Senate but they can't elect a Speaker even though they have a majority.

    I mean, this is Keystone Cops levels of incompetence.

    Heck, it's getting close to Susan Acland-Hood levels.

    It doesn't bode well for them to win the White House next year.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,753
    Benpointer said:

    According to the BBC, in 1856 it took 133 ballots over the course of two months until Nathaniel Banks became House Speaker in the 34th Congress.

    That must have got tedious after a while.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,811
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    It's impressive that the Republicans not only can't take the Senate but they can't elect a Speaker even though they have a majority.

    I mean, this is Keystone Cops levels of incompetence.

    Heck, it's getting close to Susan Acland-Hood levels.

    It doesn't bode well for them to win the White House next year.
    At least it's not all bad news.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,811
    solarflare said:

    Benpointer said:

    According to the BBC, in 1856 it took 133 ballots over the course of two months until Nathaniel Banks became House Speaker in the 34th Congress.

    That must have got tedious after a while.
    Not nearly as tedious as the Civil War which arose over the same issue...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,473
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    It's impressive that the Republicans not only can't take the Senate but they can't elect a Speaker even though they have a majority.

    I mean, this is Keystone Cops levels of incompetence.

    Heck, it's getting close to Susan Acland-Hood levels.

    It doesn't bode well for them to win the White House next year.
    Next year?

    Where is Brenda from Boston when we need her?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    edited January 2023
    Benpointer said:

    According to the BBC, in 1856 it took 133 ballots over the course of two months until Nathaniel Banks became House Speaker in the 34th Congress.

    To be fair, it was to do with slavery.

    It got bloodier a lot later.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,015
    Has Sunak actually done anything since becoming PM?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,173
    Breaking: Rep rebels saying they will hold firm, anticipate growing support, and expect an adjournment
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,811
    Stuartinromford said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    It's impressive that the Republicans not only can't take the Senate but they can't elect a Speaker even though they have a majority.

    I mean, this is Keystone Cops levels of incompetence.

    Heck, it's getting close to Susan Acland-Hood levels.

    It doesn't bode well for them to win the White House next year.
    Next year?

    Where is Brenda from Boston when we need her?
    There is a Bristol in the USA. Tennessee, to be precise.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol,_Tennessee
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,927
    dixiedean said:

    Can the Dems not agree to vote for a more moderate Rep candidate?
    Or is that too simple?

    I think it would be career suicide for any Republican to vote for a Speaker supported by the Dems.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,807
    The blue line from the wiki tracker is looking ominous for Sunak

    image
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,811
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: Rep rebels saying they will hold firm, anticipate growing support, and expect an adjournment

    If they were real patriots, they'd tell Biden what they were smoking and where he could get 50 ounces of it.

    Sold in the right market, that would clear the US national debt.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,222
    This is the American answer to indicative votes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Benpointer said:

    The blue line from the wiki tracker is looking ominous for Sunak

    image

    I predict regular sub 20s until the winter ends.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,222
    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    The blue line from the wiki tracker is looking ominous for Sunak

    image

    I predict regular sub 20s until the winter ends.
    I think that most recent drop is largely a Refuk artefact, which will disappear come the general election. Local elections though…could be interesting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008
    Still, some comfort for Sunak that the Tories are closer to 30% than 25%. Sunak also leads Starmer by 2% as preferred PM so plenty of room for him to persuade some of those Labour voters who prefer him as PM to Starmer to switch party
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,927
    edited January 2023
    FPT:
    Stuartinromford said:

    But then you have to look at what Thatcher actually did, rather than the Janet and John Vote Conservative version we're seeing now.

    If a fight is unwinnable, you don't fight... not straight away, anyway.

    You prepare the ground, then you fight when you can win.

    I don't know whether it is ignorance, arrogance or desperation that is making this government act more like Heath than Thatcher, but they are stuffing this up, badly.

    Worth remembering the circumstances in which Hunt and Sunak took over. They haven't exactly had long to prepare, the fiscal situation was dire, and party unity is shot to pieces.

    I place all my chips on desperation.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,753
    HYUFD said:

    Still, some comfort for Sunak that the Tories are closer to 30% than 25%. Sunak also leads Starmer by 2% as preferred PM so plenty of room for him to persuade some of those Labour voters who prefer him as PM to Starmer to switch party

    There's no decimal point in the tweet, so if the real numbers are more granular then fair enough, but the stated 27% seems closer to 25% than 30% by my basic maths
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Trump is losing it more and more, and the GOP by the looks of it.

    Donald Trump’s recent comments about abortion as a political issue show the former president has lost his ability to read Republican voters, a veteran Trump campaign insider said.

    In messages seen by the Guardian, the operative said: “Trump has no political skills left. His team is a joke. The ship is sinking.”

    Trump kicked off his latest scrap with his own party on his Truth Social platform on Sunday, saying: “It wasn’t my fault that the Republicans didn’t live up to expectations in the midterms.”

    On the contrary, most observers suggest Trump’s refusal to admit defeat in 2020 and endorsement of backers of his election fraud lie contributed to Republican disappointments in November, including barely scraping a House majority, failing to take the Senate and losing key races in battleground states.

    Trump said: “It was the ‘abortion issue’, poorly handled by many Republicans, especially those that firmly insisted on no exceptions, even in the case of rape, incest, or life of the mother, that lost large numbers of voters.”

    In this instance, most observers would agree. It is generally held that Dobbs v Jackson, the supreme court ruling handed down in June which ended federal abortion rights, had a tangible effect at the ballot box.

    Trump also complained that “people that pushed so hard, for decades, against abortion, got their wish from the US supreme court and just plain disappeared, not to be seen again”, and said the Republican leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, had been “stupid” in how he spent campaign cash.

    The comments prompted criticism from the political right.

    The Fox News contributor Ben Domenech said it was “hard to express how many false things Trump says in this one ‘truth’”.

    He listed stringently anti-abortion Republicans who won, contested Trump’s claim that candidates supported no-exception bans and said Trump should have spent his own money to boost candidates such as Kari Lake, the election denier defeated for governor in Arizona.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/03/donald-trump-abortion-midterms-republicans

    Those comments on abortion will not go down well with hardline anti abortion evangelicals. Pence is more hardline than Trump and DeSantis on abortion and will see an opportunity
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,671
    HYUFD said:

    Still, some comfort for Sunak that the Tories are closer to 30% than 25%. Sunak also leads Starmer by 2% as preferred PM so plenty of room for him to persuade some of those Labour voters who prefer him as PM to Starmer to switch party

    Err... 27 is closer to 25 than 30.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,597
    HYUFD said:

    Still, some comfort for Sunak that the Tories are closer to 30% than 25%. Sunak also leads Starmer by 2% as preferred PM so plenty of room for him to persuade some of those Labour voters who prefer him as PM to Starmer to switch party

    What were the preferred PM figures between Johnson and Corbyn in 2019?
  • novanova Posts: 700
    Benpointer said:

    The blue line from the wiki tracker is looking ominous for Sunak

    image

    I think that might be a quirk because People Polling, which has often had very low Tory scores, was on its own as the only poll between the 22nd and the end of the year. That probably gave it a lot more weight than it would normally get.

    Even if there's a drop in the polls for the Tories in the next few days, it's still likely to see them polling in the 20s and that line will be back up.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,885
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Has Sunak actually done anything since becoming PM?

    Yes, he's inflicted grievous damage on the domestic oil and gas industry.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,173
    Third vote expected to start soon…suggestions that some of the Dems might have to leave to floor soon
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Has Sunak actually done anything since becoming PM?

    Yes. He’s said that ‘British’ is “shorthand” for ‘English’.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,807
    edited January 2023
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Benpointer said:

    According to the BBC, in 1856 it took 133 ballots over the course of two months until Nathaniel Banks became House Speaker in the 34th Congress.

    To be fair, it was to do with slavery.

    It got bloodier a lot later.
    Good article from the Washington Post on that election, back in the days when the Dems were the baddies and the GOP on the side of history.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2022/12/30/house-speaker-longest-vote/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Casino_Royale said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    EPG said:

    Sean_F said:

    LostPassword said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Sean_F said:

    Private sector wages are growing by 6.5% and will outpace inflation before long.

    Expecting NHS workers to settle for much less is pointless.

    As pointed out upthread, the government ought to welcome increases in real wages.

    They did, indeed they celebrated them...

    ... until the government was at risk of having to pay them.
    The greater the gap between private sector pay increases (which increase tax revenues thanks to fiscal drag) and public sector pay increases (which increase public spending) the faster the deficit will be reduced.

    Given that even private sector wages are falling by several percent in real terms then the government strategy demands an eye-watering real terms cut in public sector pay.

    This is the one thing that this government exists to do. If they back down from this strategy it precipitates a major crisis.
    There’s no point picking an unwinnable fight. People will just leave the public sector in search of higher wages.

    That's certainly what a lot of people thought in the 70s.
    But then you have to look at what Thatcher actually did, rather than the Janet and John Vote Conservative version we're seeing now.

    If a fight is unwinnable, you don't fight... not straight away, anyway.

    You prepare the ground, then you fight when you can win.

    I don't know whether it is ignorance, arrogance or desperation that is making this government act more like Heath than Thatcher, but they are stuffing this up, badly.
    Exactly, I'm a bit tired of the fuzzy thinking based upon the popular myths of what Thatcher did rather than what she actually did .
    You'd never make it as a modern Tory with that attitude.

    Dream Thatcher is much more appealing.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Has Sunak actually done anything since becoming PM?

    Yes, he's inflicted grievous damage on the domestic oil and gas industry.
    Indeed. Most destructive piece of economic policy I can remember. Moron.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,885
    FPT
    Stuartinromford said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    Had a longish chat tonight with my cousin who's a fairly senior NHS doctor in a London hospital. His view is that it's the A&E crunch that's the major factor in the ills plus the inability to discharge single older people who's families are refusing to take them in or fund social care.

    On the first I told him the solution is fairly simple. A&E records the NHS number of every patient who visits. It is a very easy exercise to see which GP surgeries are not seeing enough patients with their given resources. Give them a month to get their house in order or their contract will be handed to a GP partnership that does meet the standard. It's literally a piece of piss to find out and then just needs some tough action from ministers to actually close those failing GP partnerships. I'd be willing to bet a fair amount of money that the availability of GP appointments would surge if the government did this and suddenly a whole bunch of leeches and hangers on within the partnerships would end up getting sacked to hire more doctors and nurses for appointments.

    And where are these doctors and nurses sitting waiting to be hired, exactly?
    Not an answer, but on a related note, this comment below the line on John Redwood's blog really interested me:

    "Governments seek advice from the Royal Medical Colleges about NHS practices and development, and the lack of bed provision is almost entirely down to their advice 30 years ago that most surgery would involve one-day care only in the future – this of course, as is usual in the NHS, did not take account of an increase in patients nor in medical advances. Someone at the Ministry of Health should have firmly pointed this out, but apparently didn’t.

    Similarly, the Royal Colleges did not want an increase in the number of doctors, because rarity value increases salaries – this was well known in medical circles, and confirmed by a BMA vote in 2008 AGAINST an increase in medical training positions.     Funny how the media don’t sniff these matters out and publicise them, isn’t it?... "

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2023/01/03/a-and-e-and-nhs-management/#comments

    I wonder how our very own foxinsoxuk voted?
    The keeping salaries high by restricting training has long been known. Pharmacy has seen the reverse in the last 15 years. Many more schools of pharmacy leads to many more pharmacists which drive down wages, notably for locus work, and caused a crash in student recruitment. (Why go into pharmacy, there are no jobs and the pay is shit…). Reversing a bit now (pandemic has raised healthcare profile, and we are past the dip in teenagers), but it’s a cautionary tale.
    It's not really a cautionary tale; an abundance in something making it more readily available and affordable is a good thing. How dare they 'ban' medical schools?
    A medical degree is expensive to deliver, and new doctors are only really useful on a timescale longer than most governments; it suited everyone to keep their numbers low.
    I'm sure it did suit everyone; I merely think it's a bit bloody rich that some of them are wingeing about the shortage of their numbers due to 'Brexit' when their own members voted to ban medical schools so as not to 'devalue the profession'.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008
    solarflare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Still, some comfort for Sunak that the Tories are closer to 30% than 25%. Sunak also leads Starmer by 2% as preferred PM so plenty of room for him to persuade some of those Labour voters who prefer him as PM to Starmer to switch party

    There's no decimal point in the tweet, so if the real numbers are more granular then fair enough, but the stated 27% seems closer to 25% than 30% by my basic maths
    Sorry meant 20%
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,173
    edited January 2023
    Thirteen of the fourteen occasions where the House has had multiple ballots for speaker like this, happened before the Civil War
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Fairliered said:

    MaxPB said:

    Had a longish chat tonight with my cousin who's a fairly senior NHS doctor in a London hospital. His view is that it's the A&E crunch that's the major factor in the ills plus the inability to discharge single older people who's families are refusing to take them in or fund social care.

    On the first I told him the solution is fairly simple. A&E records the NHS number of every patient who visits. It is a very easy exercise to see which GP surgeries are not seeing enough patients with their given resources. Give them a month to get their house in order or their contract will be handed to a GP partnership that does meet the standard. It's literally a piece of piss to find out and then just needs some tough action from ministers to actually close those failing GP partnerships. I'd be willing to bet a fair amount of money that the availability of GP appointments would surge if the government did this and suddenly a whole bunch of leeches and hangers on within the partnerships would end up getting sacked to hire more doctors and nurses for appointments.

    What was your cousin’s reply to your suggestion?
    "The government should get rid of GPs altogether"
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,927
    nova said:

    Benpointer said:

    The blue line from the wiki tracker is looking ominous for Sunak

    image

    I think that might be a quirk because People Polling, which has often had very low Tory scores, was on its own as the only poll between the 22nd and the end of the year. That probably gave it a lot more weight than it would normally get.

    Even if there's a drop in the polls for the Tories in the next few days, it's still likely to see them polling in the 20s and that line will be back up.
    The method of smoothing being used - LOESS - is also quite volatile at the endpoints. It's not like a moving average where the already computed values will stay the same. Another couple of polls could change the shape over a couple of weeks of the line as already shown.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    IanB2 said:

    LibDem surge?

    +3 points is MoE, so probably not.

    16% is SE and SW looks about right.

    But 16% in Scotland and 15% in Wales? Er…
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,811
    StuartDickson said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Has Sunak actually done anything since becoming PM?

    Yes. He’s said that ‘British’ is “shorthand” for ‘English’.
    (1) He said it can be used for that in the context of education, as the English qualification is the one used overseas and known as 'British;'

    (2) Would you rather he said that 'English' is shorthand for 'British,' which is what you actually seem to think it means?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,067
    MaxPB said:

    Fairliered said:

    MaxPB said:

    Had a longish chat tonight with my cousin who's a fairly senior NHS doctor in a London hospital. His view is that it's the A&E crunch that's the major factor in the ills plus the inability to discharge single older people who's families are refusing to take them in or fund social care.

    On the first I told him the solution is fairly simple. A&E records the NHS number of every patient who visits. It is a very easy exercise to see which GP surgeries are not seeing enough patients with their given resources. Give them a month to get their house in order or their contract will be handed to a GP partnership that does meet the standard. It's literally a piece of piss to find out and then just needs some tough action from ministers to actually close those failing GP partnerships. I'd be willing to bet a fair amount of money that the availability of GP appointments would surge if the government did this and suddenly a whole bunch of leeches and hangers on within the partnerships would end up getting sacked to hire more doctors and nurses for appointments.

    What was your cousin’s reply to your suggestion?
    "The government should get rid of GPs altogether"
    What was his suggested alternative?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,927
    edited January 2023
    IanB2 said:

    Thirteen of the fourteen occasions where the House has had multiple ballots for speaker like this, happened before the Civil War

    Where's Leon and his "BRACE" when you need him?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,811
    LostPassword said:

    FPT:

    Stuartinromford said:

    But then you have to look at what Thatcher actually did, rather than the Janet and John Vote Conservative version we're seeing now.

    If a fight is unwinnable, you don't fight... not straight away, anyway.

    You prepare the ground, then you fight when you can win.

    I don't know whether it is ignorance, arrogance or desperation that is making this government act more like Heath than Thatcher, but they are stuffing this up, badly.

    Worth remembering the circumstances in which Hunt and Sunak took over. They haven't exactly had long to prepare, the fiscal situation was dire, and party unity is shot to pieces.

    I place all my chips on desperation.
    They by contrast have had their chips.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,976
    Stick the darts on. This is going to be a legendary final - that 2nd set! *That* leg- they'll put that in every darts compilation from now til forever...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Fairliered said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fairliered said:

    MaxPB said:

    Had a longish chat tonight with my cousin who's a fairly senior NHS doctor in a London hospital. His view is that it's the A&E crunch that's the major factor in the ills plus the inability to discharge single older people who's families are refusing to take them in or fund social care.

    On the first I told him the solution is fairly simple. A&E records the NHS number of every patient who visits. It is a very easy exercise to see which GP surgeries are not seeing enough patients with their given resources. Give them a month to get their house in order or their contract will be handed to a GP partnership that does meet the standard. It's literally a piece of piss to find out and then just needs some tough action from ministers to actually close those failing GP partnerships. I'd be willing to bet a fair amount of money that the availability of GP appointments would surge if the government did this and suddenly a whole bunch of leeches and hangers on within the partnerships would end up getting sacked to hire more doctors and nurses for appointments.

    What was your cousin’s reply to your suggestion?
    "The government should get rid of GPs altogether"
    What was his suggested alternative?
    Standard NHS stuff - more money, more beds and fund hospice places for discharging older patients while councils organise long term care spots.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Still, some comfort for Sunak that the Tories are closer to 30% than 25%. Sunak also leads Starmer by 2% as preferred PM so plenty of room for him to persuade some of those Labour voters who prefer him as PM to Starmer to switch party

    What were the preferred PM figures between Johnson and Corbyn in 2019?
    Johnson led Corbyn by 15 to 20% as preferred PM in 2019.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,173
    LostPassword said:

    IanB2 said:

    Thirteen of the fourteen occasions where the House has had multiple ballots for speaker like this, happened before the Civil War

    Where's Leon and his "BRACE" when you need him?
    If he actually has a brace, personally I’d recommend wiring it shut.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,753
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Stick the darts on. This is going to be a legendary final - that 2nd set! *That* leg- they'll put that in every darts compilation from now til forever...

    That leg was just absolutely ridiculous.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    FPT

    Stuartinromford said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    Had a longish chat tonight with my cousin who's a fairly senior NHS doctor in a London hospital. His view is that it's the A&E crunch that's the major factor in the ills plus the inability to discharge single older people who's families are refusing to take them in or fund social care.

    On the first I told him the solution is fairly simple. A&E records the NHS number of every patient who visits. It is a very easy exercise to see which GP surgeries are not seeing enough patients with their given resources. Give them a month to get their house in order or their contract will be handed to a GP partnership that does meet the standard. It's literally a piece of piss to find out and then just needs some tough action from ministers to actually close those failing GP partnerships. I'd be willing to bet a fair amount of money that the availability of GP appointments would surge if the government did this and suddenly a whole bunch of leeches and hangers on within the partnerships would end up getting sacked to hire more doctors and nurses for appointments.

    And where are these doctors and nurses sitting waiting to be hired, exactly?
    Not an answer, but on a related note, this comment below the line on John Redwood's blog really interested me:

    "Governments seek advice from the Royal Medical Colleges about NHS practices and development, and the lack of bed provision is almost entirely down to their advice 30 years ago that most surgery would involve one-day care only in the future – this of course, as is usual in the NHS, did not take account of an increase in patients nor in medical advances. Someone at the Ministry of Health should have firmly pointed this out, but apparently didn’t.

    Similarly, the Royal Colleges did not want an increase in the number of doctors, because rarity value increases salaries – this was well known in medical circles, and confirmed by a BMA vote in 2008 AGAINST an increase in medical training positions.     Funny how the media don’t sniff these matters out and publicise them, isn’t it?... "

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2023/01/03/a-and-e-and-nhs-management/#comments

    I wonder how our very own foxinsoxuk voted?
    The keeping salaries high by restricting training has long been known. Pharmacy has seen the reverse in the last 15 years. Many more schools of pharmacy leads to many more pharmacists which drive down wages, notably for locus work, and caused a crash in student recruitment. (Why go into pharmacy, there are no jobs and the pay is shit…). Reversing a bit now (pandemic has raised healthcare profile, and we are past the dip in teenagers), but it’s a cautionary tale.
    It's not really a cautionary tale; an abundance in something making it more readily available and affordable is a good thing. How dare they 'ban' medical schools?
    A medical degree is expensive to deliver, and new doctors are only really useful on a timescale longer than most governments; it suited everyone to keep their numbers low.
    I'm sure it did suit everyone; I merely think it's a bit bloody rich that some of them are wingeing about the shortage of their numbers due to 'Brexit' when their own members voted to ban medical schools so as not to 'devalue the profession'.
    Personally I see it as a moral outrage that the Nhs imports so many doctors trained in the developing world. It’s so lazy blaming Brexit. Just train more doctors! I know several people who got their straight A’s, since childhood dreamed of nothing else but being a doctor. Excellent characters. And no place for them at medical school so they followed other paths.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,173
    Another vote isn’t going to resolve this. The Reps need to decide whether keeping the Dems there will eventually win them the vote by tiredness and attrition, or whether to adjourn and come up with a plan B.
  • beinndeargbeinndearg Posts: 789
    ydoethur said:

    StuartDickson said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Has Sunak actually done anything since becoming PM?

    Yes. He’s said that ‘British’ is “shorthand” for ‘English’.
    (1) He said it can be used for that in the context of education, as the English qualification is the one used overseas and known as 'British;'

    (2) Would you rather he said that 'English' is shorthand for 'British,' which is what you actually seem to think it means?
    Always has been, " little England" in its original sense meant little GB.

    Scotland was sold out to England by Scots. Don't take my word for it, listen to Rabbie Burns the noo. If you can't handle the shame, emigrate. I hear Stockholm is nice.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,976
    solarflare said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Stick the darts on. This is going to be a legendary final - that 2nd set! *That* leg- they'll put that in every darts compilation from now til forever...

    That leg was just absolutely ridiculous.
    "I CAN'T SPEAK"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,811
    HYUFD said:

    No_Offence_Alan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Still, some comfort for Sunak that the Tories are closer to 30% than 25%. Sunak also leads Starmer by 2% as preferred PM so plenty of room for him to persuade some of those Labour voters who prefer him as PM to Starmer to switch party

    What were the preferred PM figures between Johnson and Corbyn in 2019?
    Johnson led Corbyn by 15 to 20% as preferred PM in 2019.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
    To be fair, that was sort of like asking whether you'd rather be slow sliced or burned alive.

    Burning is probably slightly quicker and less painful, but in an ideal world you'd want a third option even if it's only a bullet in the head.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,481
    Am increasingly resigned to relegation.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    moonshine said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    FPT

    Stuartinromford said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    Had a longish chat tonight with my cousin who's a fairly senior NHS doctor in a London hospital. His view is that it's the A&E crunch that's the major factor in the ills plus the inability to discharge single older people who's families are refusing to take them in or fund social care.

    On the first I told him the solution is fairly simple. A&E records the NHS number of every patient who visits. It is a very easy exercise to see which GP surgeries are not seeing enough patients with their given resources. Give them a month to get their house in order or their contract will be handed to a GP partnership that does meet the standard. It's literally a piece of piss to find out and then just needs some tough action from ministers to actually close those failing GP partnerships. I'd be willing to bet a fair amount of money that the availability of GP appointments would surge if the government did this and suddenly a whole bunch of leeches and hangers on within the partnerships would end up getting sacked to hire more doctors and nurses for appointments.

    And where are these doctors and nurses sitting waiting to be hired, exactly?
    Not an answer, but on a related note, this comment below the line on John Redwood's blog really interested me:

    "Governments seek advice from the Royal Medical Colleges about NHS practices and development, and the lack of bed provision is almost entirely down to their advice 30 years ago that most surgery would involve one-day care only in the future – this of course, as is usual in the NHS, did not take account of an increase in patients nor in medical advances. Someone at the Ministry of Health should have firmly pointed this out, but apparently didn’t.

    Similarly, the Royal Colleges did not want an increase in the number of doctors, because rarity value increases salaries – this was well known in medical circles, and confirmed by a BMA vote in 2008 AGAINST an increase in medical training positions.     Funny how the media don’t sniff these matters out and publicise them, isn’t it?... "

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2023/01/03/a-and-e-and-nhs-management/#comments

    I wonder how our very own foxinsoxuk voted?
    The keeping salaries high by restricting training has long been known. Pharmacy has seen the reverse in the last 15 years. Many more schools of pharmacy leads to many more pharmacists which drive down wages, notably for locus work, and caused a crash in student recruitment. (Why go into pharmacy, there are no jobs and the pay is shit…). Reversing a bit now (pandemic has raised healthcare profile, and we are past the dip in teenagers), but it’s a cautionary tale.
    It's not really a cautionary tale; an abundance in something making it more readily available and affordable is a good thing. How dare they 'ban' medical schools?
    A medical degree is expensive to deliver, and new doctors are only really useful on a timescale longer than most governments; it suited everyone to keep their numbers low.
    I'm sure it did suit everyone; I merely think it's a bit bloody rich that some of them are wingeing about the shortage of their numbers due to 'Brexit' when their own members voted to ban medical schools so as not to 'devalue the profession'.
    Personally I see it as a moral outrage that the Nhs imports so many doctors trained in the developing world. It’s so lazy blaming Brexit. Just train more doctors! I know several people who got their straight A’s, since childhood dreamed of nothing else but being a doctor. Excellent characters. And no place for them at medical school so they followed other paths.
    Case in point, got the grades at A-level, didn't get in and was asked to defer but I didn't want to pay £3k per year for 6 years and decided to do chemistry instead at my second choice uni. In the end a career in games development after uni seemed more appealing than doing a grad med course for four years.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    ARRERS
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,811
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Stick the darts on. This is going to be a legendary final - that 2nd set! *That* leg- they'll put that in every darts compilation from now til forever...

    Is that leg over?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,173
    The irony is that they don’t want McCarthy because, by Republican standards, he’s too sensible.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    dixiedean said:

    Am increasingly resigned to relegation.

    Bring back Sam Allardyce.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,473
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    No_Offence_Alan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Still, some comfort for Sunak that the Tories are closer to 30% than 25%. Sunak also leads Starmer by 2% as preferred PM so plenty of room for him to persuade some of those Labour voters who prefer him as PM to Starmer to switch party

    What were the preferred PM figures between Johnson and Corbyn in 2019?
    Johnson led Corbyn by 15 to 20% as preferred PM in 2019.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
    To be fair, that was sort of like asking whether you'd rather be slow sliced or burned alive.

    Burning is probably slightly quicker and less painful, but in an ideal world you'd want a third option even if it's only a bullet in the head.
    That was basically the Lib Dem manifesto of 2019, wasn't it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,811
    Stuartinromford said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    No_Offence_Alan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Still, some comfort for Sunak that the Tories are closer to 30% than 25%. Sunak also leads Starmer by 2% as preferred PM so plenty of room for him to persuade some of those Labour voters who prefer him as PM to Starmer to switch party

    What were the preferred PM figures between Johnson and Corbyn in 2019?
    Johnson led Corbyn by 15 to 20% as preferred PM in 2019.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
    To be fair, that was sort of like asking whether you'd rather be slow sliced or burned alive.

    Burning is probably slightly quicker and less painful, but in an ideal world you'd want a third option even if it's only a bullet in the head.
    That was basically the Lib Dem manifesto of 2019, wasn't it?
    Nah, they advocated hanging.

    Or at least, I think they did. Didn't they say their leader would Swin some?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,481
    edited January 2023
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am increasingly resigned to relegation.

    Bring back Sam Allardyce.
    You're joking of course.
    I'm not.
    Edit: Now four.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,173
    Vote three is about to get underway….
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,807
    dixiedean said:

    Am increasingly resigned to relegation.

    I suspect Lampard is increasingly resigned to resignation too.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,038
    Benpointer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am increasingly resigned to relegation.

    I suspect Lampard is increasingly resigned to resignation too.
    Sacked in the morning? Looks like it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    dixiedean said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am increasingly resigned to relegation.

    Bring back Sam Allardyce.
    You're joking of course.
    I'm not.
    Edit: Now four.
    I suspect when Lampard is fired they’ll go for Big Dunc?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,671
    edited January 2023
    dixiedean said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am increasingly resigned to relegation.

    Bring back Sam Allardyce.
    You're joking of course.
    I'm not.
    Edit: Now four.
    Relegation is going to be a massive scrap in the bottom half of the table. It only take a couple of unexpected wins or losses to drag people in and out of the mire (c.f. Forest's point against Chelsea)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    It's impressive that the Republicans not only can't take the Senate but they can't elect a Speaker even though they have a majority.

    I mean, this is Keystone Cops levels of incompetence.

    Heck, it's getting close to Susan Acland-Hood levels.

    It doesn't bode well for them to win the White House next year.
    I topped up on Biden on Sunday.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,173
    edited January 2023
    And the third candidate, Jordan, is nominated again by the nutty republican right, with a populist demand either for better leadership or changes in procedural rules. Jordan himself is apparently backing McCarthy - it appears consent to one’s own nomination isn’t required under House rules

    And so off they go again..l
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    This is just an observation....and my staff coming back to work are not political. They are just regular people.

    But the sense of gloom and despair with the current state of things was beyond anything I have encountered. It is not just that Sunak has not heard the room on the strikes, it is just the feeling that at the moment we are really in a deep hole, and there is no way out.

    Sunak is not going to get credit on his tough line with strikers. It is a monumental lack of judgement. Christ knows who is advising him. And just factor in the state of the NHS, inflation, higher interest rates.

    The best thing the Tories can do now is to call a GE and put themselves (and all of us) out of this misery and death by a million and one cuts. They are clueless, ideologically divided, corrupted, vacuous, sunk by the disastrous Brexit, tired, out of touch, and completely unable to find any answers.....

    The War on Woke and the 3 blokes who want to use a ladies loo, and the poor souls who are risking their lives to cross the channel on dinghies are the last bits of their red meat morsals they throw out to the Daily Mail.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,976
    ydoethur said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Stick the darts on. This is going to be a legendary final - that 2nd set! *That* leg- they'll put that in every darts compilation from now til forever...

    Is that leg over?
    They've just shown a replay with a split screen of Pyke and Mardle in the commentary box. Scenes...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Has Sunak actually done anything since becoming PM?

    Yes, to be fair I think he's been working very hard.

    His approach is not to announce things until he's ready and confident they'll stick though:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-polite-radical-rishi-sunak-on-economic-repair-migrants-and-faith/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,008
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    No_Offence_Alan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Still, some comfort for Sunak that the Tories are closer to 30% than 25%. Sunak also leads Starmer by 2% as preferred PM so plenty of room for him to persuade some of those Labour voters who prefer him as PM to Starmer to switch party

    What were the preferred PM figures between Johnson and Corbyn in 2019?
    Johnson led Corbyn by 15 to 20% as preferred PM in 2019.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
    To be fair, that was sort of like asking whether you'd rather be slow sliced or burned alive.

    Burning is probably slightly quicker and less painful, but in an ideal world you'd want a third option even if it's only a bullet in the head.
    There was Jo Swinson as that 3rd option
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    IanB2 said:

    it appears consent to one’s own nomination isn’t required under House rules

    That is just that extra bit of ridiculous that adds to the hilarity.

    Keep it up for at least a few days, why not?

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,481
    edited January 2023
    mwadams said:

    dixiedean said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am increasingly resigned to relegation.

    Bring back Sam Allardyce.
    You're joking of course.
    I'm not.
    Edit: Now four.
    Relegation is going to be a massive scrap in the bottom half of the table. It only take a couple of unexpected wins or losses to drag people in and out of the mire (c.f. Forest's point against Chelsea)
    Indeed. We'll be 15 points after 18 games. Yet still above four others. It's three from eight. But we don't look like scoring. Nor not falling apart when we concede.
    We're getting worse not better.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: Rep rebels saying they will hold firm, anticipate growing support, and expect an adjournment

    Quite amusing the Americans have now incubated their own ERG.

    Enjoy fellas.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    kle4 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    EPG said:

    Sean_F said:

    LostPassword said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Sean_F said:

    Private sector wages are growing by 6.5% and will outpace inflation before long.

    Expecting NHS workers to settle for much less is pointless.

    As pointed out upthread, the government ought to welcome increases in real wages.

    They did, indeed they celebrated them...

    ... until the government was at risk of having to pay them.
    The greater the gap between private sector pay increases (which increase tax revenues thanks to fiscal drag) and public sector pay increases (which increase public spending) the faster the deficit will be reduced.

    Given that even private sector wages are falling by several percent in real terms then the government strategy demands an eye-watering real terms cut in public sector pay.

    This is the one thing that this government exists to do. If they back down from this strategy it precipitates a major crisis.
    There’s no point picking an unwinnable fight. People will just leave the public sector in search of higher wages.

    That's certainly what a lot of people thought in the 70s.
    But then you have to look at what Thatcher actually did, rather than the Janet and John Vote Conservative version we're seeing now.

    If a fight is unwinnable, you don't fight... not straight away, anyway.

    You prepare the ground, then you fight when you can win.

    I don't know whether it is ignorance, arrogance or desperation that is making this government act more like Heath than Thatcher, but they are stuffing this up, badly.
    Exactly, I'm a bit tired of the fuzzy thinking based upon the popular myths of what Thatcher did rather than what she actually did .
    You'd never make it as a modern Tory with that attitude.

    Dream Thatcher is much more appealing.
    I despair at the calibre of modern MPs.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    tyson said:

    This is just an observation....and my staff coming back to work are not political. They are just regular people.

    But the sense of gloom and despair with the current state of things was beyond anything I have encountered. It is not just that Sunak has not heard the room on the strikes, it is just the feeling that at the moment we are really in a deep hole, and there is no way out.

    Sunak is not going to get credit on his tough line with strikers. It is a monumental lack of judgement. Christ knows who is advising him. And just factor in the state of the NHS, inflation, higher interest rates.

    The best thing the Tories can do now is to call a GE and put themselves (and all of us) out of this misery and death by a million and one cuts. They are clueless, ideologically divided, corrupted, vacuous, sunk by the disastrous Brexit, tired, out of touch, and completely unable to find any answers.....

    The War on Woke and the 3 blokes who want to use a ladies loo, and the poor souls who are risking their lives to cross the channel on dinghies are the last bits of their red meat morsals they throw out to the Daily Mail.

    Judging by the polls, it doesn't look like people in any other occupation are delighted with the world. If national income were 10% higher overall, it might work, but the only way to pay for the NHS is to get those other people to reduce their incomes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,173
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    it appears consent to one’s own nomination isn’t required under House rules

    That is just that extra bit of ridiculous that adds to the hilarity.

    Keep it up for at least a few days, why not?

    Under British rules, consent is required. Several times I’ve been in situations where we as the opposition tried to nominate another member of the administration to a job, when we’d picked up rumours of dissatisfaction behind the scenes, in an attempt to stir the pot - forcing the individual, who we knew wanted the job, to decline the nomination.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    MaxPB said:

    Fairliered said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fairliered said:

    MaxPB said:

    Had a longish chat tonight with my cousin who's a fairly senior NHS doctor in a London hospital. His view is that it's the A&E crunch that's the major factor in the ills plus the inability to discharge single older people who's families are refusing to take them in or fund social care.

    On the first I told him the solution is fairly simple. A&E records the NHS number of every patient who visits. It is a very easy exercise to see which GP surgeries are not seeing enough patients with their given resources. Give them a month to get their house in order or their contract will be handed to a GP partnership that does meet the standard. It's literally a piece of piss to find out and then just needs some tough action from ministers to actually close those failing GP partnerships. I'd be willing to bet a fair amount of money that the availability of GP appointments would surge if the government did this and suddenly a whole bunch of leeches and hangers on within the partnerships would end up getting sacked to hire more doctors and nurses for appointments.

    What was your cousin’s reply to your suggestion?
    "The government should get rid of GPs altogether"
    What was his suggested alternative?
    Standard NHS stuff - more money, more beds and fund hospice places for discharging older patients while councils organise long term care spots.
    I think the most likely place this is heading, politically, is the return of the HSC levy.

    Except this time at 2% rather than 1.25%.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    ydoethur said:

    LostPassword said:

    FPT:

    Stuartinromford said:

    But then you have to look at what Thatcher actually did, rather than the Janet and John Vote Conservative version we're seeing now.

    If a fight is unwinnable, you don't fight... not straight away, anyway.

    You prepare the ground, then you fight when you can win.

    I don't know whether it is ignorance, arrogance or desperation that is making this government act more like Heath than Thatcher, but they are stuffing this up, badly.

    Worth remembering the circumstances in which Hunt and Sunak took over. They haven't exactly had long to prepare, the fiscal situation was dire, and party unity is shot to pieces.

    I place all my chips on desperation.
    They by contrast have had their chips.
    Which are now all on the shoulder of @StuartDickson
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,689
    Leon said:

    ARRERS

    Great final. And THAT leg - Darts from the gods.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,671
    dixiedean said:

    mwadams said:

    dixiedean said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am increasingly resigned to relegation.

    Bring back Sam Allardyce.
    You're joking of course.
    I'm not.
    Edit: Now four.
    Relegation is going to be a massive scrap in the bottom half of the table. It only take a couple of unexpected wins or losses to drag people in and out of the mire (c.f. Forest's point against Chelsea)
    Indeed. We'll be 15 points after 18 games. Yet still above four others. It's three from eight. But we don't look like scoring. Nor not falling apart when we concede.
    We're getting worse not better.
    I'm hoping we will hold it together and beat Soton away tomorrow, to end up on 17 after 18. Two wins, two draws, and a loss would be a good run from the last 5 games if that pans out. Even a win, three draws and a loss (ManU) would be OK. We can't afford to lose tomorrow though.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    EPG said:

    tyson said:

    This is just an observation....and my staff coming back to work are not political. They are just regular people.

    But the sense of gloom and despair with the current state of things was beyond anything I have encountered. It is not just that Sunak has not heard the room on the strikes, it is just the feeling that at the moment we are really in a deep hole, and there is no way out.

    Sunak is not going to get credit on his tough line with strikers. It is a monumental lack of judgement. Christ knows who is advising him. And just factor in the state of the NHS, inflation, higher interest rates.

    The best thing the Tories can do now is to call a GE and put themselves (and all of us) out of this misery and death by a million and one cuts. They are clueless, ideologically divided, corrupted, vacuous, sunk by the disastrous Brexit, tired, out of touch, and completely unable to find any answers.....

    The War on Woke and the 3 blokes who want to use a ladies loo, and the poor souls who are risking their lives to cross the channel on dinghies are the last bits of their red meat morsals they throw out to the Daily Mail.

    Judging by the polls, it doesn't look like people in any other occupation are delighted with the world. If national income were 10% higher overall, it might work, but the only way to pay for the NHS is to get those other people to reduce their incomes.
    Didn't you get the memo?

    It's just us suffering like this, and reversing Brexit will make all the problems go away overnight.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,671
    mwadams said:

    dixiedean said:

    mwadams said:

    dixiedean said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am increasingly resigned to relegation.

    Bring back Sam Allardyce.
    You're joking of course.
    I'm not.
    Edit: Now four.
    Relegation is going to be a massive scrap in the bottom half of the table. It only take a couple of unexpected wins or losses to drag people in and out of the mire (c.f. Forest's point against Chelsea)
    Indeed. We'll be 15 points after 18 games. Yet still above four others. It's three from eight. But we don't look like scoring. Nor not falling apart when we concede.
    We're getting worse not better.
    I'm hoping we will hold it together and beat Soton away tomorrow, to end up on 17 after 18. Two wins, two draws, and a loss would be a good run from the last 5 games if that pans out. Even a win, three draws and a loss (ManU) would be OK. We can't afford to lose tomorrow though.
    (I'd also observe that Brentford, Brighton and Fulham are doing unexpectedly well...and are also amongst the most sophisticated in their use of data in the Premiership, and least dependent on unreconstructed 70s-style mysticism in the way they run their club. As I understand it, anyway.)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    What a game of darts! 🎯
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,885
    tyson said:

    This is just an observation....and my staff coming back to work are not political. They are just regular people.

    But the sense of gloom and despair with the current state of things was beyond anything I have encountered. It is not just that Sunak has not heard the room on the strikes, it is just the feeling that at the moment we are really in a deep hole, and there is no way out.

    Sunak is not going to get credit on his tough line with strikers. It is a monumental lack of judgement. Christ knows who is advising him. And just factor in the state of the NHS, inflation, higher interest rates.

    The best thing the Tories can do now is to call a GE and put themselves (and all of us) out of this misery and death by a million and one cuts. They are clueless, ideologically divided, corrupted, vacuous, sunk by the disastrous Brexit, tired, out of touch, and completely unable to find any answers.....

    The War on Woke and the 3 blokes who want to use a ladies loo, and the poor souls who are risking their lives to cross the channel on dinghies are the last bits of their red meat morsals they throw out to the Daily Mail.

    The 'poor souls' from Albania paying £500 to get here on dinghies could get a flight from Tirana for £23. Perhaps you should think about why they don't want to use that route.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,222
    EPG said:

    tyson said:

    This is just an observation....and my staff coming back to work are not political. They are just regular people.

    But the sense of gloom and despair with the current state of things was beyond anything I have encountered. It is not just that Sunak has not heard the room on the strikes, it is just the feeling that at the moment we are really in a deep hole, and there is no way out.

    Sunak is not going to get credit on his tough line with strikers. It is a monumental lack of judgement. Christ knows who is advising him. And just factor in the state of the NHS, inflation, higher interest rates.

    The best thing the Tories can do now is to call a GE and put themselves (and all of us) out of this misery and death by a million and one cuts. They are clueless, ideologically divided, corrupted, vacuous, sunk by the disastrous Brexit, tired, out of touch, and completely unable to find any answers.....

    The War on Woke and the 3 blokes who want to use a ladies loo, and the poor souls who are risking their lives to cross the channel on dinghies are the last bits of their red meat morsals they throw out to the Daily Mail.

    Judging by the polls, it doesn't look like people in any other occupation are delighted with the world. If national income were 10% higher overall, it might work, but the only way to pay for the NHS is to get those other people to reduce their incomes.
    The despair is real and tangible. My biggest fear is that this turns a recession into a big deep recession. Not necessarily a long one - I think the retreat of inflation will help to unwind things - but a deeper and more depressing recession than it might have been. Both consumer and business confidence are shot.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,689
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    It's impressive that the Republicans not only can't take the Senate but they can't elect a Speaker even though they have a majority.

    I mean, this is Keystone Cops levels of incompetence.

    Heck, it's getting close to Susan Acland-Hood levels.

    It doesn't bode well for them to win the White House next year.
    I topped up on Biden on Sunday.
    I'm on Dems at 2.4 which I like. Fair chance of GOP implosion imo.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,173
    So Jordan picks up an extra rebel vote, but he himself votes for McCarthy…
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,481
    edited January 2023
    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    dixiedean said:

    mwadams said:

    dixiedean said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am increasingly resigned to relegation.

    Bring back Sam Allardyce.
    You're joking of course.
    I'm not.
    Edit: Now four.
    Relegation is going to be a massive scrap in the bottom half of the table. It only take a couple of unexpected wins or losses to drag people in and out of the mire (c.f. Forest's point against Chelsea)
    Indeed. We'll be 15 points after 18 games. Yet still above four others. It's three from eight. But we don't look like scoring. Nor not falling apart when we concede.
    We're getting worse not better.
    I'm hoping we will hold it together and beat Soton away tomorrow, to end up on 17 after 18. Two wins, two draws, and a loss would be a good run from the last 5 games if that pans out. Even a win, three draws and a loss (ManU) would be OK. We can't afford to lose tomorrow though.
    (I'd also observe that Brentford, Brighton and Fulham are doing unexpectedly well...and are also amongst the most sophisticated in their use of data in the Premiership, and least dependent on unreconstructed 70s-style mysticism in the way they run their club. As I understand it, anyway.)
    Yes.
    They seem not to be over reliant on "passion".
    Which amounts to having a manager shouting and gesticulating wildly up and down the touchline.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    kinabalu said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    It's impressive that the Republicans not only can't take the Senate but they can't elect a Speaker even though they have a majority.

    I mean, this is Keystone Cops levels of incompetence.

    Heck, it's getting close to Susan Acland-Hood levels.

    It doesn't bode well for them to win the White House next year.
    I topped up on Biden on Sunday.
    I'm on Dems at 2.4 which I like. Fair chance of GOP implosion imo.
    I think the chances of Trump running as a third party candidate next year have increased today.
This discussion has been closed.