I am wondering what date the actual collapse - when schools are shut because they literally cannot get staff - will occur.
I would say there is a 15% chance it is in the next year, perhaps a 50% chance it is within two years.
If it is more than four years away I will be surprised. I think that it will gather momentum as the disintegration progresses. Also, of course, there is a severe restriction on training places coming through.
I also don't think Labour coming to power will help. The problems are too deep-seated. Instead, they should be considering what will replace it (and how to sideline the DfE so they don't fuck everything up again).
I have no idea how it’s going to pan out. But the gulf between schools largely attended by middle class children, and those in poorer areas is going to grow.
As an aside, I see the DfE has also messed with FE Colleges. That’s also unlikely to go well.
I am wondering what date the actual collapse - when schools are shut because they literally cannot get staff - will occur.
I would say there is a 15% chance it is in the next year, perhaps a 50% chance it is within two years.
If it is more than four years away I will be surprised. I think that it will gather momentum as the disintegration progresses. Also, of course, there is a severe restriction on training places coming through.
I also don't think Labour coming to power will help. The problems are too deep-seated. Instead, they should be considering what will replace it (and how to sideline the DfE so they don't fuck everything up again).
It is simply a no-brainer to be on supply. Much shorter hours at school. No marking. No prep. No reports. Or endless, pointless e-mails. No parents to deal with. In a couple of years everyone will be. No guarantee you'll turn up the next day of course...The job is being deliberately casualised. Seen it happen in FE.
I am wondering what date the actual collapse - when schools are shut because they literally cannot get staff - will occur.
I would say there is a 15% chance it is in the next year, perhaps a 50% chance it is within two years.
If it is more than four years away I will be surprised. I think that it will gather momentum as the disintegration progresses. Also, of course, there is a severe restriction on training places coming through.
I also don't think Labour coming to power will help. The problems are too deep-seated. Instead, they should be considering what will replace it (and how to sideline the DfE so they don't fuck everything up again).
It is simply a no-brainer to be on supply. Much shorter hours at school. No marking. No prep. No reports. Or endless, pointless e-mails. No parents to deal with. In a couple of years everyone will be. No guarantee you'll turn up the next day of course...The job is being deliberately casualised. Seen it happen in FE.
If we all go on supply, who sets the work? Oak National Academy? Their work is so poor in my subjects as to be actually worse than useless. The government? Same applies. TikTok? Well, it may come to that.
I am wondering what date the actual collapse - when schools are shut because they literally cannot get staff - will occur.
I would say there is a 15% chance it is in the next year, perhaps a 50% chance it is within two years.
If it is more than four years away I will be surprised. I think that it will gather momentum as the disintegration progresses. Also, of course, there is a severe restriction on training places coming through.
I also don't think Labour coming to power will help. The problems are too deep-seated. Instead, they should be considering what will replace it (and how to sideline the DfE so they don't fuck everything up again).
It is simply a no-brainer to be on supply. Much shorter hours at school. No marking. No prep. No reports. Or endless, pointless e-mails. No parents to deal with. In a couple of years everyone will be. No guarantee you'll turn up the next day of course...The job is being deliberately casualised. Seen it happen in FE.
If we all go on supply, who sets the work? Oak National Academy? Their work is so poor in my subjects as to be actually worse than useless. The government? Same applies. TikTok? Well, it may come to that.
Had an interesting conversation with a senior guy at one of the bigger supply agencies a few months ago. He expects, in no more than four years, that heads of department will be the only teaching staff. Their job will be to set the work, write all the lesson plans, deal with admin, marking and parents, etc. Everyone else will be supply. Despite being a senior supply agency person, who stands to benefit enormously, he was tremendously downbeat about the profession. The economics of it make no other sense though.
well goodbye 2022 , funny year in that i separated from my wife but really enjoyed the year which had a lot of variety and in it worked for two organisations that I never thought I would get the chance to work for ever ,let alone at the start of 2022. So unpredictable but great.
Fitness wise - ok to goodish but need to push my running more and get up to half marathons again (only managed a 10K race this year) .
Chess wise - rollercoaster up and down the ratings - probably never going to break out of my 850-950 rating ever .
Betting wise - good! A positive overall record ,good world cup and had a great Cheltenham
Trips - after my separation took myself off for a few days to tour the North of England and Scotland - absolute bliss and relaxing ,not booking anywhere ,just seeing what i liked when I got there.
Politics wise - given up on the tories so voting Reform atm (even though i am a remainer)
Special moments - handing out the medals for a national sport championship/ Cheltenham!/ my daughter get really good A levels
I am wondering what date the actual collapse - when schools are shut because they literally cannot get staff - will occur.
I would say there is a 15% chance it is in the next year, perhaps a 50% chance it is within two years.
If it is more than four years away I will be surprised. I think that it will gather momentum as the disintegration progresses. Also, of course, there is a severe restriction on training places coming through.
I also don't think Labour coming to power will help. The problems are too deep-seated. Instead, they should be considering what will replace it (and how to sideline the DfE so they don't fuck everything up again).
It is simply a no-brainer to be on supply. Much shorter hours at school. No marking. No prep. No reports. Or endless, pointless e-mails. No parents to deal with. In a couple of years everyone will be. No guarantee you'll turn up the next day of course...The job is being deliberately casualised. Seen it happen in FE.
If we all go on supply, who sets the work? Oak National Academy? Their work is so poor in my subjects as to be actually worse than useless. The government? Same applies. TikTok? Well, it may come to that.
I am wondering what date the actual collapse - when schools are shut because they literally cannot get staff - will occur.
I would say there is a 15% chance it is in the next year, perhaps a 50% chance it is within two years.
If it is more than four years away I will be surprised. I think that it will gather momentum as the disintegration progresses. Also, of course, there is a severe restriction on training places coming through.
I also don't think Labour coming to power will help. The problems are too deep-seated. Instead, they should be considering what will replace it (and how to sideline the DfE so they don't fuck everything up again).
It is simply a no-brainer to be on supply. Much shorter hours at school. No marking. No prep. No reports. Or endless, pointless e-mails. No parents to deal with. In a couple of years everyone will be. No guarantee you'll turn up the next day of course...The job is being deliberately casualised. Seen it happen in FE.
I am wondering what date the actual collapse - when schools are shut because they literally cannot get staff - will occur.
I would say there is a 15% chance it is in the next year, perhaps a 50% chance it is within two years.
If it is more than four years away I will be surprised. I think that it will gather momentum as the disintegration progresses. Also, of course, there is a severe restriction on training places coming through.
I also don't think Labour coming to power will help. The problems are too deep-seated. Instead, they should be considering what will replace it (and how to sideline the DfE so they don't fuck everything up again).
I have no idea how it’s going to pan out. But the gulf between schools largely attended by middle class children, and those in poorer areas is going to grow.
As an aside, I see the DfE has also messed with FE Colleges. That’s also unlikely to go well.
I work at the local sixth form college. Over the last four years, we've merged with four other colleges - purely trying to deal with budget issues. This year, we've merged with the local FE college, which has three sites and another FE college slightly further away. Again this is because of finances. At some point in the next two years, it's going to break. And now, not only will the original college go, but virtually all sixth form education in West Sussex, plus most of the FE, will go too, and there won't be any organisation capable of picking up the pieces.
I note that many of you have problems with illness and mortality, either in yourselves or your loved ones. Whilst not unexpected - PB skews older - it is still saddening to see and I hope you all find a way to come to terms with it. Life is not as nice as it should be.
But on a more hopeful note, as we travel further into an increasingly science-fictional 21st century, may I please wish you all the best in 2023. I cannot honestly hope for all your politics - PB be weird - but I can say that I hope you all survive 2023 and end it happier, healthier and wealthier than you started it. Happy gambling to you all.
As modern displays go, I didn't think the fireworks were particularly innovative. Felt a lot like criteria was let off a lot of them...and...that was about it.
ChatGPT anecdote. I know. Youngest has got hair lice. A few questions and answers with ChatGPT have saved me hours of googling on the best treatment, whether or not to wash our sheets, whether the cats can catch them. It’s replacing Google in this household for most things now except news and business opening times.
Google is said to be very worried about ChatGPT undermining its core business, search.
Oh bloody Sadiq, what a terrible man, making a point of honouring gay people. What a terrible man.
I'm sure we'll hear nothing about the pandering to the Royal Family!
Crazy idea this, how about just having a fireworks display....without honouring people, promoting causes, etc etc etc.
The royal bit was good - liked the way QEII morphed to CIII - but even that had Wokery at the margins:
(1) The "I declare before all you.." quote (clipped 'and the service of our great imperial family' because Empire = bad etc.) (2) The Charles bit majored on the custodianship of the planet.
Wokery as a creed always has to cover all the bases: gender, sexuality, trans, race, refugees and climate change.
Race was the one bit I got wrong as it was not explicitly covered this year. Otherwise, a full house.
Oh bloody Sadiq, what a terrible man, making a point of honouring gay people. What a terrible man.
I'm sure we'll hear nothing about the pandering to the Royal Family!
Crazy idea this, how about just having a fireworks display....without honouring people, promoting causes, etc etc etc.
I'm sure when Boris did it you were up in arms too
Yes....I find crowbarring all this in rather jarring, be it the Queen or Ukraine or whatever.
I don't mind seminal events of the year being covered - except where massively overdone, like the Captain Tom stuff - but not an annualised apostles creed of wokery.
The Archbishop of Canterbury has urged the government to take action to fix the country's "broken" social care system in his new year message.
The archbishop's televised message comes as he prepares to publish a report on the social care crisis in January, which will cover how he thinks the system can be fixed.
He has worked on the research - which has focused on ways to create a fairer social care system - for two years alongside the Archbishop of York, Stephen Cottrell.
Fireworks over the Bradford skyline lasting longer than London's effort.
Austerity doesn’t seem to have hit everyone's pockets yet.
Still going on...
Here there were more private fireworks than for Guy Fawkes or Diwali, or at least that is how it seemed, probably because they were concentrated into half an hour or so rather than spread out over a week.
Talking of disappointing....Slow Horses Season 2 Finale....5 great episodes, and then....utter utter ridiculous nonsense. Its like they let GPT-Chat idiot cousin write it....
I liked it. Falls apart if you think about it for 60 seconds though.
No, it was shite. And I quite liked the first one
It did not work on any level. As social satire - idiot billionaires! - it was predictable and laboured. As a whodunnit it was full of awful, tedious non sequiturs. As a narrative it was busted by the middle act flashback which went on and on
The suspense was non existent, the dialogue was stiff and all the characters were dull or obnoxious
Murder mysteries have been done a million times, with every possible plot variation and theme explored a hundred times. There's really no need for movie murder mysteries at all when there's a thousand options on TV, many good, at any time.
So the ones that stand out do so because of style and performance alone. That will carry them through flaws.
I did finally see Avatar today - in its defence, for a very long movie it was not a difficult sit, even if like the first it is, well, basically fine (if amazing looking).
I had a pretty good 2022. Didn't notice any fireworks, as I stumbled into a group of half a dozen drunken ladies in their 60's and 70's half of whom who shared their stories of domestic abuse. Jaw dropping. And very woke.
Comments
But the gulf between schools largely attended by middle class children, and those in poorer areas is going to grow.
As an aside, I see the DfE has also messed with FE Colleges. That’s also unlikely to go well.
Much shorter hours at school. No marking. No prep. No reports. Or endless, pointless e-mails. No parents to deal with. In a couple of years everyone will be.
No guarantee you'll turn up the next day of course...The job is being deliberately casualised. Seen it happen in FE.
He expects, in no more than four years, that heads of department will be the only teaching staff.
Their job will be to set the work, write all the lesson plans, deal with admin, marking and parents, etc.
Everyone else will be supply.
Despite being a senior supply agency person, who stands to benefit enormously, he was tremendously downbeat about the profession. The economics of it make no other sense though.
Fitness wise - ok to goodish but need to push my running more and get up to half marathons again (only managed a 10K race this year) .
Chess wise - rollercoaster up and down the ratings - probably never going to break out of my 850-950 rating ever .
Betting wise - good! A positive overall record ,good world cup and had a great Cheltenham
Trips - after my separation took myself off for a few days to tour the North of England and Scotland - absolute bliss and relaxing ,not booking anywhere ,just seeing what i liked when I got there.
Politics wise - given up on the tories so voting Reform atm (even though i am a remainer)
Special moments - handing out the medals for a national sport championship/ Cheltenham!/ my daughter get really good A levels
I don't intend to post much until 2024 GE.
See you all then
And here's my prediction for the UK: It will be a better year for you in politics than 2022. (That seems like a fairly safe prediction.)
At some point in the next two years, it's going to break. And now, not only will the original college go, but virtually all sixth form education in West Sussex, plus most of the FE, will go too, and there won't be any organisation capable of picking up the pieces.
Happy New Year, goodnight all.
My one prediction for 2023 is…
Ukraine to win Eurovision again.
But on a more hopeful note, as we travel further into an increasingly science-fictional 21st century, may I please wish you all the best in 2023. I cannot honestly hope for all your politics - PB be weird - but I can say that I hope you all survive 2023 and end it happier, healthier and wealthier than you started it. Happy gambling to you all.
Of course, you also end up with Jared O'Maras.
Happy New Year to all.
1
2
or
3+
Last year, I would have said one. We got three.
Ukraine - good
Gay people - bad
Austerity doesn’t seem to have hit everyone's pockets yet.
Still going on...
I had my wife laughing as I predicted six things Khan would go for and got five of them, almost in exact order.
I'm sure we'll hear nothing about the pandering to the Royal Family!
(1) The "I declare before all you.." quote (clipped 'and the service of our great imperial family' because Empire = bad etc.)
(2) The Charles bit majored on the custodianship of the planet.
Wokery as a creed always has to cover all the bases: gender, sexuality, trans, race, refugees and climate change.
Race was the one bit I got wrong as it was not explicitly covered this year. Otherwise, a full house.
The archbishop's televised message comes as he prepares to publish a report on the social care crisis in January, which will cover how he thinks the system can be fixed.
He has worked on the research - which has focused on ways to create a fairer social care system - for two years alongside the Archbishop of York, Stephen Cottrell.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-64137439
I deserve a good New Year's Day slap for not registering all the wokery.
It would obviously have been better in Boris's day. That goes without saying.
Blwyddyn Newydd Dda.
It did not work on any level. As social satire - idiot billionaires! - it was predictable and laboured. As a whodunnit it was full of awful, tedious non sequiturs. As a narrative it was busted by the middle act flashback which went on and on
The suspense was non existent, the dialogue was stiff and all the characters were dull or obnoxious
Other than that it was ok. Costumes were good
So the ones that stand out do so because of style and performance alone. That will carry them through flaws.
I did finally see Avatar today - in its defence, for a very long movie it was not a difficult sit, even if like the first it is, well, basically fine (if amazing looking).
Didn't notice any fireworks, as I stumbled into a group of half a dozen drunken ladies in their 60's and 70's half of whom who shared their stories of domestic abuse.
Jaw dropping. And very woke.
I'm off to bed. Enjoy the fireworks debate.
I’m balls deep in The Sopranos. Never seen it before - I’ve demolished the first two seasons in a fortnight. Superb - but not as good as The Wire.
Happy New Year everyone!