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The past year in Westminster by-elections – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,040
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ‘Exhausted, broken, at risk of heart attacks’: UK headteachers quit as cuts push them to the edge
    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/dec/31/heart-attacks-headteachers-uk-quit-cuts

    I am wondering what date the actual collapse - when schools are shut because they literally cannot get staff - will occur.

    I would say there is a 15% chance it is in the next year, perhaps a 50% chance it is within two years.

    If it is more than four years away I will be surprised. I think that it will gather momentum as the disintegration progresses. Also, of course, there is a severe restriction on training places coming through.

    I also don't think Labour coming to power will help. The problems are too deep-seated. Instead, they should be considering what will replace it (and how to sideline the DfE so they don't fuck everything up again).
    I have no idea how it’s going to pan out.
    But the gulf between schools largely attended by middle class children, and those in poorer areas is going to grow.

    As an aside, I see the DfE has also messed with FE Colleges. That’s also unlikely to go well.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,901
    edited December 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ‘Exhausted, broken, at risk of heart attacks’: UK headteachers quit as cuts push them to the edge
    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/dec/31/heart-attacks-headteachers-uk-quit-cuts

    I am wondering what date the actual collapse - when schools are shut because they literally cannot get staff - will occur.

    I would say there is a 15% chance it is in the next year, perhaps a 50% chance it is within two years.

    If it is more than four years away I will be surprised. I think that it will gather momentum as the disintegration progresses. Also, of course, there is a severe restriction on training places coming through.

    I also don't think Labour coming to power will help. The problems are too deep-seated. Instead, they should be considering what will replace it (and how to sideline the DfE so they don't fuck everything up again).
    It is simply a no-brainer to be on supply.
    Much shorter hours at school. No marking. No prep. No reports. Or endless, pointless e-mails. No parents to deal with. In a couple of years everyone will be.
    No guarantee you'll turn up the next day of course...The job is being deliberately casualised. Seen it happen in FE.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,045
    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ‘Exhausted, broken, at risk of heart attacks’: UK headteachers quit as cuts push them to the edge
    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/dec/31/heart-attacks-headteachers-uk-quit-cuts

    I am wondering what date the actual collapse - when schools are shut because they literally cannot get staff - will occur.

    I would say there is a 15% chance it is in the next year, perhaps a 50% chance it is within two years.

    If it is more than four years away I will be surprised. I think that it will gather momentum as the disintegration progresses. Also, of course, there is a severe restriction on training places coming through.

    I also don't think Labour coming to power will help. The problems are too deep-seated. Instead, they should be considering what will replace it (and how to sideline the DfE so they don't fuck everything up again).
    It is simply a no-brainer to be on supply.
    Much shorter hours at school. No marking. No prep. No reports. Or endless, pointless e-mails. No parents to deal with. In a couple of years everyone will be.
    No guarantee you'll turn up the next day of course...The job is being deliberately casualised. Seen it happen in FE.
    If we all go on supply, who sets the work? Oak National Academy? Their work is so poor in my subjects as to be actually worse than useless. The government? Same applies. TikTok? Well, it may come to that.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,513
    As someone who thinks we should retain British Summer Time all year round, I shall now wish everyone a Happy, Peaceful and Prosperous New Year!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,901
    edited December 2022
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ‘Exhausted, broken, at risk of heart attacks’: UK headteachers quit as cuts push them to the edge
    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/dec/31/heart-attacks-headteachers-uk-quit-cuts

    I am wondering what date the actual collapse - when schools are shut because they literally cannot get staff - will occur.

    I would say there is a 15% chance it is in the next year, perhaps a 50% chance it is within two years.

    If it is more than four years away I will be surprised. I think that it will gather momentum as the disintegration progresses. Also, of course, there is a severe restriction on training places coming through.

    I also don't think Labour coming to power will help. The problems are too deep-seated. Instead, they should be considering what will replace it (and how to sideline the DfE so they don't fuck everything up again).
    It is simply a no-brainer to be on supply.
    Much shorter hours at school. No marking. No prep. No reports. Or endless, pointless e-mails. No parents to deal with. In a couple of years everyone will be.
    No guarantee you'll turn up the next day of course...The job is being deliberately casualised. Seen it happen in FE.
    If we all go on supply, who sets the work? Oak National Academy? Their work is so poor in my subjects as to be actually worse than useless. The government? Same applies. TikTok? Well, it may come to that.
    Had an interesting conversation with a senior guy at one of the bigger supply agencies a few months ago.
    He expects, in no more than four years, that heads of department will be the only teaching staff.
    Their job will be to set the work, write all the lesson plans, deal with admin, marking and parents, etc.
    Everyone else will be supply.
    Despite being a senior supply agency person, who stands to benefit enormously, he was tremendously downbeat about the profession. The economics of it make no other sense though.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,416
    edited December 2022
    well goodbye 2022 , funny year in that i separated from my wife but really enjoyed the year which had a lot of variety and in it worked for two organisations that I never thought I would get the chance to work for ever ,let alone at the start of 2022. So unpredictable but great.

    Fitness wise - ok to goodish but need to push my running more and get up to half marathons again (only managed a 10K race this year) .

    Chess wise - rollercoaster up and down the ratings - probably never going to break out of my 850-950 rating ever .

    Betting wise - good! A positive overall record ,good world cup and had a great Cheltenham

    Trips - after my separation took myself off for a few days to tour the North of England and Scotland - absolute bliss and relaxing ,not booking anywhere ,just seeing what i liked when I got there.

    Politics wise - given up on the tories so voting Reform atm (even though i am a remainer)

    Special moments - handing out the medals for a national sport championship/ Cheltenham!/ my daughter get really good A levels
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ‘Exhausted, broken, at risk of heart attacks’: UK headteachers quit as cuts push them to the edge
    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/dec/31/heart-attacks-headteachers-uk-quit-cuts

    I am wondering what date the actual collapse - when schools are shut because they literally cannot get staff - will occur.

    I would say there is a 15% chance it is in the next year, perhaps a 50% chance it is within two years.

    If it is more than four years away I will be surprised. I think that it will gather momentum as the disintegration progresses. Also, of course, there is a severe restriction on training places coming through.

    I also don't think Labour coming to power will help. The problems are too deep-seated. Instead, they should be considering what will replace it (and how to sideline the DfE so they don't fuck everything up again).
    It is simply a no-brainer to be on supply.
    Much shorter hours at school. No marking. No prep. No reports. Or endless, pointless e-mails. No parents to deal with. In a couple of years everyone will be.
    No guarantee you'll turn up the next day of course...The job is being deliberately casualised. Seen it happen in FE.
    If we all go on supply, who sets the work? Oak National Academy? Their work is so poor in my subjects as to be actually worse than useless. The government? Same applies. TikTok? Well, it may come to that.
    Oh well it's what people voted for.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803
    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ‘Exhausted, broken, at risk of heart attacks’: UK headteachers quit as cuts push them to the edge
    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/dec/31/heart-attacks-headteachers-uk-quit-cuts

    I am wondering what date the actual collapse - when schools are shut because they literally cannot get staff - will occur.

    I would say there is a 15% chance it is in the next year, perhaps a 50% chance it is within two years.

    If it is more than four years away I will be surprised. I think that it will gather momentum as the disintegration progresses. Also, of course, there is a severe restriction on training places coming through.

    I also don't think Labour coming to power will help. The problems are too deep-seated. Instead, they should be considering what will replace it (and how to sideline the DfE so they don't fuck everything up again).
    It is simply a no-brainer to be on supply.
    Much shorter hours at school. No marking. No prep. No reports. Or endless, pointless e-mails. No parents to deal with. In a couple of years everyone will be.
    No guarantee you'll turn up the next day of course...The job is being deliberately casualised. Seen it happen in FE.
    Same is happening in Health.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,116
    edited December 2022
    Liverpool won 2-1, but Leicester players scored all the goals.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,452
    Happy New Year to the gracious hosts here, and the commenters!

    And here's my prediction for the UK: It will be a better year for you in politics than 2022. (That seems like a fairly safe prediction.)
  • Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ‘Exhausted, broken, at risk of heart attacks’: UK headteachers quit as cuts push them to the edge
    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/dec/31/heart-attacks-headteachers-uk-quit-cuts

    I am wondering what date the actual collapse - when schools are shut because they literally cannot get staff - will occur.

    I would say there is a 15% chance it is in the next year, perhaps a 50% chance it is within two years.

    If it is more than four years away I will be surprised. I think that it will gather momentum as the disintegration progresses. Also, of course, there is a severe restriction on training places coming through.

    I also don't think Labour coming to power will help. The problems are too deep-seated. Instead, they should be considering what will replace it (and how to sideline the DfE so they don't fuck everything up again).
    I have no idea how it’s going to pan out.
    But the gulf between schools largely attended by middle class children, and those in poorer areas is going to grow.

    As an aside, I see the DfE has also messed with FE Colleges. That’s also unlikely to go well.
    I work at the local sixth form college. Over the last four years, we've merged with four other colleges - purely trying to deal with budget issues. This year, we've merged with the local FE college, which has three sites and another FE college slightly further away. Again this is because of finances.
    At some point in the next two years, it's going to break. And now, not only will the original college go, but virtually all sixth form education in West Sussex, plus most of the FE, will go too, and there won't be any organisation capable of picking up the pieces.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,334
    Happy New Year to everyone.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,513
    2023 is going to be the year when quite a few non-Tory paper candidates inadvertently find themselves elected to the council.
  • Happy new year, all. Things can only get better. Apparently.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,510
    edited January 2023

    2023 is going to be the year when quite a few non-Tory paper candidates inadvertently find themselves elected to the council.

    Some great councillors first get elected that way.

    Of course, you also end up with Jared O'Maras.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,510
    Christ, that was another shitter of a year, albeit technically not as bad as 2020. Here's to 2023.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,161
    👍👍
  • Did Sky News not pay to plug into the music to go along with the fireworks?
  • Seems like I might be the only one who had a good 2022....and now currently at the airport waiting for a well deserved break in the sun.
  • I see we are getting plenty of politics in the London fireworks.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388

    Seems like I might be the only one who had a good 2022....and now currently at the airport waiting for a well deserved break in the sun.

    Not a bad year for me. Did well on the PM betting and World Cup. Some good memories too and plans for the New Year for some adventures.

    Happy New Year to all.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    How many PMs will we have this year?

    1
    2
    or
    3+

    Last year, I would have said one. We got three.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,309
    edited January 2023

    I see we are getting plenty of politics in the London fireworks.

    I only saw it from the top floor window but looked like an Ukraine flag at one point and a lot of lovehearts.
  • London fireworks.

    Ukraine - good
    Gay people - bad
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,513
    Fireworks over the Bradford skyline lasting longer than London's effort.

    Austerity doesn’t seem to have hit everyone's pockets yet.

    Still going on...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2023

    London fireworks.

    Ukraine - good
    Gay people - bad

    As modern displays go, I didn't think the fireworks were particularly innovative. Felt a lot like criteria was let off a lot of them...and...that was about it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,168

    I see we are getting plenty of politics in the London fireworks.

    Wokeworks.

    I had my wife laughing as I predicted six things Khan would go for and got five of them, almost in exact order.
  • Oh bloody Sadiq, what a terrible man, making a point of honouring gay people. What a terrible man.

    I'm sure we'll hear nothing about the pandering to the Royal Family!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2023

    Oh bloody Sadiq, what a terrible man, making a point of honouring gay people. What a terrible man.

    I'm sure we'll hear nothing about the pandering to the Royal Family!

    Crazy idea this, how about just having a fireworks display....without honouring people, promoting causes, etc etc etc.
  • Oh bloody Sadiq, what a terrible man, making a point of honouring gay people. What a terrible man.

    I'm sure we'll hear nothing about the pandering to the Royal Family!

    Crazy idea this, how about just having a fireworks display....without honouring people, promoting causes, etc etc etc.
    I'm sure when Boris did it you were up in arms too
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2023

    Oh bloody Sadiq, what a terrible man, making a point of honouring gay people. What a terrible man.

    I'm sure we'll hear nothing about the pandering to the Royal Family!

    Crazy idea this, how about just having a fireworks display....without honouring people, promoting causes, etc etc etc.
    I'm sure when Boris did it you were up in arms too
    Yes....I find crowbarring all this in rather jarring, be it the Queen or Ukraine or whatever.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,453
    My god “the glass onion” is effing terrible
  • TimS said:

    ChatGPT anecdote. I know. Youngest has got hair lice. A few questions and answers with ChatGPT have saved me hours of googling on the best treatment, whether or not to wash our sheets, whether the cats can catch them. It’s replacing Google in this household for most things now except news and business opening times.

    Google is said to be very worried about ChatGPT undermining its core business, search.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,168

    Oh bloody Sadiq, what a terrible man, making a point of honouring gay people. What a terrible man.

    I'm sure we'll hear nothing about the pandering to the Royal Family!

    Crazy idea this, how about just having a fireworks display....without honouring people, promoting causes, etc etc etc.
    The royal bit was good - liked the way QEII morphed to CIII - but even that had Wokery at the margins:

    (1) The "I declare before all you.." quote (clipped 'and the service of our great imperial family' because Empire = bad etc.)
    (2) The Charles bit majored on the custodianship of the planet.

    Wokery as a creed always has to cover all the bases: gender, sexuality, trans, race, refugees and climate change.

    Race was the one bit I got wrong as it was not explicitly covered this year. Otherwise, a full house.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,168

    Oh bloody Sadiq, what a terrible man, making a point of honouring gay people. What a terrible man.

    I'm sure we'll hear nothing about the pandering to the Royal Family!

    Crazy idea this, how about just having a fireworks display....without honouring people, promoting causes, etc etc etc.
    I'm sure when Boris did it you were up in arms too
    Yes....I find crowbarring all this in rather jarring, be it the Queen or Ukraine or whatever.
    I don't mind seminal events of the year being covered - except where massively overdone, like the Captain Tom stuff - but not an annualised apostles creed of wokery.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2023
    The Archbishop of Canterbury has urged the government to take action to fix the country's "broken" social care system in his new year message.

    The archbishop's televised message comes as he prepares to publish a report on the social care crisis in January, which will cover how he thinks the system can be fixed.

    He has worked on the research - which has focused on ways to create a fairer social care system - for two years alongside the Archbishop of York, Stephen Cottrell.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-64137439
  • Fireworks over the Bradford skyline lasting longer than London's effort.

    Austerity doesn’t seem to have hit everyone's pockets yet.

    Still going on...

    Here there were more private fireworks than for Guy Fawkes or Diwali, or at least that is how it seemed, probably because they were concentrated into half an hour or so rather than spread out over a week.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,912

    Oh bloody Sadiq, what a terrible man, making a point of honouring gay people. What a terrible man.

    I'm sure we'll hear nothing about the pandering to the Royal Family!

    Crazy idea this, how about just having a fireworks display....without honouring people, promoting causes, etc etc etc.
    I'm sure when Boris did it you were up in arms too
    I just enjoyed the show. I thought it was great, particularly the HMQ 50p piece morphing into HMK 50p.

    I deserve a good New Year's Day slap for not registering all the wokery.

    It would obviously have been better in Boris's day. That goes without saying.

    Blwyddyn Newydd Dda.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,510
    Leon said:

    My god “the glass onion” is effing terrible

    I liked it. Falls apart if you think about it for 60 seconds though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,908
    Happy New Year
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    My god “the glass onion” is effing terrible

    I liked it. Falls apart if you think about it for 60 seconds though.
    Same theme as his Star Wars movie.
  • The first Knives Out was incredibly overrated, so boring
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2023
    Talking of disappointing....Slow Horses Season 2 Finale....5 great episodes, and then....utter utter ridiculous nonsense. Its like they let GPT-Chat idiot cousin write it....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,453
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    My god “the glass onion” is effing terrible

    I liked it. Falls apart if you think about it for 60 seconds though.
    No, it was shite. And I quite liked the first one

    It did not work on any level. As social satire - idiot billionaires! - it was predictable and laboured. As a whodunnit it was full of awful, tedious non sequiturs. As a narrative it was busted by the middle act flashback which went on and on

    The suspense was non existent, the dialogue was stiff and all the characters were dull or obnoxious

    Other than that it was ok. Costumes were good
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,510
    Murder mysteries have been done a million times, with every possible plot variation and theme explored a hundred times. There's really no need for movie murder mysteries at all when there's a thousand options on TV, many good, at any time.

    So the ones that stand out do so because of style and performance alone. That will carry them through flaws.

    I did finally see Avatar today - in its defence, for a very long movie it was not a difficult sit, even if like the first it is, well, basically fine (if amazing looking).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,901
    edited January 2023
    I had a pretty good 2022.
    Didn't notice any fireworks, as I stumbled into a group of half a dozen drunken ladies in their 60's and 70's half of whom who shared their stories of domestic abuse.
    Jaw dropping. And very woke.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,040
    Happy New Year, and all the best to all.

    I'm off to bed. Enjoy the fireworks debate.
  • Leon said:

    My god “the glass onion” is effing terrible

    I zoned out of it after about half an hour.

    I’m balls deep in The Sopranos. Never seen it before - I’ve demolished the first two seasons in a fortnight. Superb - but not as good as The Wire.

    Happy New Year everyone!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,334
    Anyone know the last time the London celebrations featured mainly classical music rather than pop music? Perhaps it was better with classical music.
This discussion has been closed.