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The past year in Westminster by-elections – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2023 in General
imageThe past year in Westminster by-elections – politicalbetting.com

The last year has seen 6 parliamentary by-elections of which just two saw a change in the party holding the seat.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • God bless Neil Parish!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,175
    Hartlepool seems such a long time ago.
  • My word, did I bagsy a first?

    What a great way to the end the year!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,229
    edited December 2022
    In some good news for Sunak the swing against the Conservatives in Chester when he was PM was less than in Tiverton and Honiton when Boris was PM and the swing In Stretford earlier this month less than in Wakefield earlier this year.

    Truss also the first PM in history not to face a by election given she was in office for so short a period
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,175

    My word, did I bagsy a first?

    What a great way to the end the year!

    ...and a third. Like the Tories in the HoC after the next GE??
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,217

    My word, did I bagsy a first?

    What a great way to the end the year!

    Unlike the Conservtaives.

    Did we ever see Parish's John Deere letter?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,715
    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    There is more chance of mankind dying out in the next year - from AI, aliens, war, plague or possibly climate change - than in any previous year in civilised human history. And yes, I am including the Black Death

    Happy New Year!

    It depends whether the six year old child in some technically advanced "civilisation" finally gets bored and turns off this simulation we live in. She has tried to spice it up by turning on disaster mode but she is easily bored I suspect. Blink.

    Ahh - the sheer pleasure of panic!
    I would actually stand by my statement. Even when the Black Death was ravaging the world, at worst it killed 60% of society, and left enough people to quickly restore an agrarian medieval economy (it's not hard, just plant stuff and wait)

    So there was no sincere threat of us going extinct. Now, there is, from any one or a combination of those threats. The threat is vanishingly small, but it is there, and not quite as small as it was

    Probably the last time homo sapiens was this endangered was when we were still in Africa, 150,000 years ago, and nearly got wiped out by the weather

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/when-the-sea-saved-humanity-2012-12-07/
    Garbage.

    The most extreme nuclear war/biological war concepts ever created would kill maybe 90% of the human race. Survival would be biased to hunter gathers and low tech farmers.

    Rebuilding would be much easier. The steel in a few building structures might be more iron than the Roman Empire used. In its entirety…

    Flint knapping wouldn’t be a useful skill.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,602
    HYUFD said:

    In some good news for Sunak the swing against the Conservatives in Chester when he was PM was less than in Tiverton and Honiton when Boris was PM and the swing In Stretford earlier this month less than in Wakefield earlier this year.

    Truss also the first PM in history not to face a by election given she was in office for so short a period

    How about comparing the swing in Wakefield (12.7%) with Chester (13.7%) ?

    We can clearly see Sunak doing worse than Johnson in northern seats with Labour the main challenger..

    I presume you're of the view the removal of Boris Johnson by the Conservative Parliamentary Party constitutes an error of similar magnitude to the ousting of Margaret Thatcher in November 1990?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,385

    My word, did I bagsy a first?

    What a great way to the end the year!

    As genuine as an East German record...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 46,781
    HYUFD said:

    In some good news for Sunak the swing against the Conservatives in Chester when he was PM was less than in Tiverton and Honiton when Boris was PM and the swing In Stretford earlier this month less than in Wakefield earlier this year.

    Truss also the first PM in history not to face a by election given she was in office for so short a period

    Do you read your rubbish, before you post it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,229
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    In some good news for Sunak the swing against the Conservatives in Chester when he was PM was less than in Tiverton and Honiton when Boris was PM and the swing In Stretford earlier this month less than in Wakefield earlier this year.

    Truss also the first PM in history not to face a by election given she was in office for so short a period

    How about comparing the swing in Wakefield (12.7%) with Chester (13.7%) ?

    We can clearly see Sunak doing worse than Johnson in northern seats with Labour the main challenger..

    I presume you're of the view the removal of Boris Johnson by the Conservative Parliamentary Party constitutes an error of similar magnitude to the ousting of Margaret Thatcher in November 1990?
    Major at least got a bounce relative to Thatcher.

    Sunak has got a bounce relative to Truss but not relative to Boris overall maybe but there is some evidence Sunak has got a bounce relative to Boris in the bluewall
  • Scott_xP said:

    My word, did I bagsy a first?

    What a great way to the end the year!

    As genuine as an East German record...
    I was scheduling my pieces for tomorrow and I noted OGH had published this piece.

    Pure insider trading luck.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,602
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    In some good news for Sunak the swing against the Conservatives in Chester when he was PM was less than in Tiverton and Honiton when Boris was PM and the swing In Stretford earlier this month less than in Wakefield earlier this year.

    Truss also the first PM in history not to face a by election given she was in office for so short a period

    How about comparing the swing in Wakefield (12.7%) with Chester (13.7%) ?

    We can clearly see Sunak doing worse than Johnson in northern seats with Labour the main challenger..

    I presume you're of the view the removal of Boris Johnson by the Conservative Parliamentary Party constitutes an error of similar magnitude to the ousting of Margaret Thatcher in November 1990?
    Major at least got a bounce relative to Thatcher.

    Sunak has got a bounce relative to Truss but not relative to Boris overall maybe but there is some evidence Sunak has got a bounce relative to Boris in the bluewall
    I'm not sure the last comment is correct either.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-21-22-november-2022/

    We haven't had any recent polling to see if the Conservatives have improved their fortunes. The May local elections will have a lot of contests in Blue Wall Council areas such as Guildford, Waverley and West Berkshire to name but three. It will be interesting to see what movement there has been since 2019.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 8,615

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    There is more chance of mankind dying out in the next year - from AI, aliens, war, plague or possibly climate change - than in any previous year in civilised human history. And yes, I am including the Black Death

    Happy New Year!

    It depends whether the six year old child in some technically advanced "civilisation" finally gets bored and turns off this simulation we live in. She has tried to spice it up by turning on disaster mode but she is easily bored I suspect. Blink.

    Ahh - the sheer pleasure of panic!
    I would actually stand by my statement. Even when the Black Death was ravaging the world, at worst it killed 60% of society, and left enough people to quickly restore an agrarian medieval economy (it's not hard, just plant stuff and wait)

    So there was no sincere threat of us going extinct. Now, there is, from any one or a combination of those threats. The threat is vanishingly small, but it is there, and not quite as small as it was

    Probably the last time homo sapiens was this endangered was when we were still in Africa, 150,000 years ago, and nearly got wiped out by the weather

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/when-the-sea-saved-humanity-2012-12-07/
    Garbage.

    The most extreme nuclear war/biological war concepts ever created would kill maybe 90% of the human race. Survival would be biased to hunter gathers and low tech farmers.

    Rebuilding would be much easier. The steel in a few building structures might be more iron than the Roman Empire used. In its entirety…

    Flint knapping wouldn’t be a useful skill.
    Global nuclear war under current geopolitical circumstances would be largely a northern hemisphere and probably extra-tropical phenomenon with only a few exceptions. South America, Africa and depending on the conflict, South East Asia and the Antipodes would be safe (the latter for Russia v NATO but not China v the West). So despite economic depression and crisis - which countries like Argentina are used to anyway - humankind would be up running in no time.

    Biological Armageddon could be more global and a little more like the Black Death but as you say with more infrastructure and technology readily available.

    Runaway global warming gives us some serious issues because there’s no simple reset and regrowth once the runaway process starts. But it’s not in the likely scientific scenarios at the moment and we would at least have a bit more notice.

    AI taking over…if and when it happens I reckon we go out not with a bang but a cyborg whimper.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 8,615
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    In some good news for Sunak the swing against the Conservatives in Chester when he was PM was less than in Tiverton and Honiton when Boris was PM and the swing In Stretford earlier this month less than in Wakefield earlier this year.

    Truss also the first PM in history not to face a by election given she was in office for so short a period

    How about comparing the swing in Wakefield (12.7%) with Chester (13.7%) ?

    We can clearly see Sunak doing worse than Johnson in northern seats with Labour the main challenger..

    I presume you're of the view the removal of Boris Johnson by the Conservative Parliamentary Party constitutes an error of similar magnitude to the ousting of Margaret Thatcher in November 1990?
    Major at least got a bounce relative to Thatcher.

    Sunak has got a bounce relative to Truss but not relative to Boris overall maybe but there is some evidence Sunak has got a bounce relative to Boris in the bluewall
    I'm not sure the last comment is correct either.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-21-22-november-2022/

    We haven't had any recent polling to see if the Conservatives have improved their fortunes. The May local elections will have a lot of contests in Blue Wall Council areas such as Guildford, Waverley and West Berkshire to name but three. It will be interesting to see what movement there has been since 2019.
    Most interesting variable in the blue wall is the extent to which the swing away from Tories is in favour of the Lib Dems or Labour. Former is worse for Sunak.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,229
    edited December 2022
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    In some good news for Sunak the swing against the Conservatives in Chester when he was PM was less than in Tiverton and Honiton when Boris was PM and the swing In Stretford earlier this month less than in Wakefield earlier this year.

    Truss also the first PM in history not to face a by election given she was in office for so short a period

    How about comparing the swing in Wakefield (12.7%) with Chester (13.7%) ?

    We can clearly see Sunak doing worse than Johnson in northern seats with Labour the main challenger..

    I presume you're of the view the removal of Boris Johnson by the Conservative Parliamentary Party constitutes an error of similar magnitude to the ousting of Margaret Thatcher in November 1990?
    Major at least got a bounce relative to Thatcher.

    Sunak has got a bounce relative to Truss but not relative to Boris overall maybe but there is some evidence Sunak has got a bounce relative to Boris in the bluewall
    I'm not sure the last comment is correct either.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-21-22-november-2022/

    We haven't had any recent polling to see if the Conservatives have improved their fortunes. The May local elections will have a lot of contests in Blue Wall Council areas such as Guildford, Waverley and West Berkshire to name but three. It will be interesting to see what movement there has been since 2019.
    Sunak leads Starmer as preferred PM 49% to 31% in the bluewall
    and by 9% even at your link
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/blue-wall-voting-intention-13-14-november-2022/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,385

    Scott_xP said:

    My word, did I bagsy a first?

    What a great way to the end the year!

    As genuine as an East German record...
    I was scheduling my pieces for tomorrow and I noted OGH had published this piece.

    Pure insider trading luck.
    Lance Armstrong would be embarrassed to try and claim that one...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,602
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    In some good news for Sunak the swing against the Conservatives in Chester when he was PM was less than in Tiverton and Honiton when Boris was PM and the swing In Stretford earlier this month less than in Wakefield earlier this year.

    Truss also the first PM in history not to face a by election given she was in office for so short a period

    How about comparing the swing in Wakefield (12.7%) with Chester (13.7%) ?

    We can clearly see Sunak doing worse than Johnson in northern seats with Labour the main challenger..

    I presume you're of the view the removal of Boris Johnson by the Conservative Parliamentary Party constitutes an error of similar magnitude to the ousting of Margaret Thatcher in November 1990?
    Major at least got a bounce relative to Thatcher.

    Sunak has got a bounce relative to Truss but not relative to Boris overall maybe but there is some evidence Sunak has got a bounce relative to Boris in the bluewall
    I'm not sure the last comment is correct either.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-21-22-november-2022/

    We haven't had any recent polling to see if the Conservatives have improved their fortunes. The May local elections will have a lot of contests in Blue Wall Council areas such as Guildford, Waverley and West Berkshire to name but three. It will be interesting to see what movement there has been since 2019.
    Sunak leads Starmer as preferred PM 49% to 31% in the bluewall

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/blue-wall-voting-intention-13-14-november-2022/
    Which became 44-35 just a week later.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,229
    edited December 2022
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    In some good news for Sunak the swing against the Conservatives in Chester when he was PM was less than in Tiverton and Honiton when Boris was PM and the swing In Stretford earlier this month less than in Wakefield earlier this year.

    Truss also the first PM in history not to face a by election given she was in office for so short a period

    How about comparing the swing in Wakefield (12.7%) with Chester (13.7%) ?

    We can clearly see Sunak doing worse than Johnson in northern seats with Labour the main challenger..

    I presume you're of the view the removal of Boris Johnson by the Conservative Parliamentary Party constitutes an error of similar magnitude to the ousting of Margaret Thatcher in November 1990?
    Major at least got a bounce relative to Thatcher.

    Sunak has got a bounce relative to Truss but not relative to Boris overall maybe but there is some evidence Sunak has got a bounce relative to Boris in the bluewall
    I'm not sure the last comment is correct either.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-21-22-november-2022/

    We haven't had any recent polling to see if the Conservatives have improved their fortunes. The May local elections will have a lot of contests in Blue Wall Council areas such as Guildford, Waverley and West Berkshire to name but three. It will be interesting to see what movement there has been since 2019.
    Sunak leads Starmer as preferred PM 49% to 31% in the bluewall

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/blue-wall-voting-intention-13-14-november-2022/
    Which became 44-35 just a week later.
    So still a big 9% lead, preferred PM numbers are often more accurate than voting intention see 2015 or 1992
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 46,781
    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    In some good news for Sunak the swing against the Conservatives in Chester when he was PM was less than in Tiverton and Honiton when Boris was PM and the swing In Stretford earlier this month less than in Wakefield earlier this year.

    Truss also the first PM in history not to face a by election given she was in office for so short a period

    How about comparing the swing in Wakefield (12.7%) with Chester (13.7%) ?

    We can clearly see Sunak doing worse than Johnson in northern seats with Labour the main challenger..

    I presume you're of the view the removal of Boris Johnson by the Conservative Parliamentary Party constitutes an error of similar magnitude to the ousting of Margaret Thatcher in November 1990?
    Major at least got a bounce relative to Thatcher.

    Sunak has got a bounce relative to Truss but not relative to Boris overall maybe but there is some evidence Sunak has got a bounce relative to Boris in the bluewall
    I'm not sure the last comment is correct either.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-21-22-november-2022/

    We haven't had any recent polling to see if the Conservatives have improved their fortunes. The May local elections will have a lot of contests in Blue Wall Council areas such as Guildford, Waverley and West Berkshire to name but three. It will be interesting to see what movement there has been since 2019.
    Most interesting variable in the blue wall is the extent to which the swing away from Tories is in favour of the Lib Dems or Labour. Former is worse for Sunak.
    And we won’t know until the election. 1997 says hello.
  • . . . meanwhile back at the ranch . . .

    Politico.com - McCarthy struggles to appease conservative demands as speakership battle nears
    The GOP leader again raised making it easier for members to force a vote to depose the speaker, a move that could severely weaken him if he does manage to take the gavel next term.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/30/gop-leader-votes-kevin-mccarthy-00075867

    Rollcall.com - Speaker race headed toward dramatic floor election
    McCarthy opponents and supporters not budging, expect multiple ballots

    https://rollcall.com/2022/12/30/speaker-race-headed-toward-dramatic-floor-election/


    Foxnews.com - GOP faces delay in unlocking full powers of House if McCarthy cannot clinch speakership - Legislation, subpoenas face delays if House does not elect a speaker on Jan. 3

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-faces-delay-unlocking-full-powers-house-mccarthy-cannot-clinch-speakership
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,715
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    There is more chance of mankind dying out in the next year - from AI, aliens, war, plague or possibly climate change - than in any previous year in civilised human history. And yes, I am including the Black Death

    Happy New Year!

    It depends whether the six year old child in some technically advanced "civilisation" finally gets bored and turns off this simulation we live in. She has tried to spice it up by turning on disaster mode but she is easily bored I suspect. Blink.

    Ahh - the sheer pleasure of panic!
    I would actually stand by my statement. Even when the Black Death was ravaging the world, at worst it killed 60% of society, and left enough people to quickly restore an agrarian medieval economy (it's not hard, just plant stuff and wait)

    So there was no sincere threat of us going extinct. Now, there is, from any one or a combination of those threats. The threat is vanishingly small, but it is there, and not quite as small as it was

    Probably the last time homo sapiens was this endangered was when we were still in Africa, 150,000 years ago, and nearly got wiped out by the weather

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/when-the-sea-saved-humanity-2012-12-07/
    Garbage.

    The most extreme nuclear war/biological war concepts ever created would kill maybe 90% of the human race. Survival would be biased to hunter gathers and low tech farmers.

    Rebuilding would be much easier. The steel in a few building structures might be more iron than the Roman Empire used. In its entirety…

    Flint knapping wouldn’t be a useful skill.
    Global nuclear war under current geopolitical circumstances would be largely a northern hemisphere and probably extra-tropical phenomenon with only a few exceptions. South America, Africa and depending on the conflict, South East Asia and the Antipodes would be safe (the latter for Russia v NATO but not China v the West). So despite economic depression and crisis - which countries like Argentina are used to anyway - humankind would be up running in no time.

    Biological Armageddon could be more global and a little more like the Black Death but as you say with more infrastructure and technology readily available.

    Runaway global warming gives us some serious issues because there’s no simple reset and regrowth once the runaway process starts. But it’s not in the likely scientific scenarios at the moment and we would at least have a bit more notice.

    AI taking over…if and when it happens I reckon we go out not with a bang but a cyborg whimper.
    The mega deaths in the Southern Hemisphere would result from the ending of the support that they receive from the Northern Hemisphere, largely.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 8,615
    On the topic of walls, I know we have the famous red one, the popular blue one and relatively new sea wall. Is there an equivalent for the agricultural Wessex and West Country seats that were traditionally liberal leaning but swept Cameron to power in 2015? West of Andover and stretching up into the Marches. It’s not blue wall in the proper sense of the word. Blue hedgerow?

    We might as well parcel up the rest of England. The brick wall: inner urban labour strongholds. The purple heart: the ukip-scented Tory stronghold from the Thames estuary up into the East Midlands and Lincs. That just leaves the comfortably stable West midlands and the very politically mixed outer suburbs without their own walls.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 8,615

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    There is more chance of mankind dying out in the next year - from AI, aliens, war, plague or possibly climate change - than in any previous year in civilised human history. And yes, I am including the Black Death

    Happy New Year!

    It depends whether the six year old child in some technically advanced "civilisation" finally gets bored and turns off this simulation we live in. She has tried to spice it up by turning on disaster mode but she is easily bored I suspect. Blink.

    Ahh - the sheer pleasure of panic!
    I would actually stand by my statement. Even when the Black Death was ravaging the world, at worst it killed 60% of society, and left enough people to quickly restore an agrarian medieval economy (it's not hard, just plant stuff and wait)

    So there was no sincere threat of us going extinct. Now, there is, from any one or a combination of those threats. The threat is vanishingly small, but it is there, and not quite as small as it was

    Probably the last time homo sapiens was this endangered was when we were still in Africa, 150,000 years ago, and nearly got wiped out by the weather

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/when-the-sea-saved-humanity-2012-12-07/
    Garbage.

    The most extreme nuclear war/biological war concepts ever created would kill maybe 90% of the human race. Survival would be biased to hunter gathers and low tech farmers.

    Rebuilding would be much easier. The steel in a few building structures might be more iron than the Roman Empire used. In its entirety…

    Flint knapping wouldn’t be a useful skill.
    Global nuclear war under current geopolitical circumstances would be largely a northern hemisphere and probably extra-tropical phenomenon with only a few exceptions. South America, Africa and depending on the conflict, South East Asia and the Antipodes would be safe (the latter for Russia v NATO but not China v the West). So despite economic depression and crisis - which countries like Argentina are used to anyway - humankind would be up running in no time.

    Biological Armageddon could be more global and a little more like the Black Death but as you say with more infrastructure and technology readily available.

    Runaway global warming gives us some serious issues because there’s no simple reset and regrowth once the runaway process starts. But it’s not in the likely scientific scenarios at the moment and we would at least have a bit more notice.

    AI taking over…if and when it happens I reckon we go out not with a bang but a cyborg whimper.
    The mega deaths in the Southern Hemisphere would result from the ending of the support that they receive from the Northern Hemisphere, largely.
    Which in traditionally autarkic Latin America should be easily survivable, and in Southern Africa might be less problematic than for the Sahel and Maghreb.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 8,615
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    In some good news for Sunak the swing against the Conservatives in Chester when he was PM was less than in Tiverton and Honiton when Boris was PM and the swing In Stretford earlier this month less than in Wakefield earlier this year.

    Truss also the first PM in history not to face a by election given she was in office for so short a period

    How about comparing the swing in Wakefield (12.7%) with Chester (13.7%) ?

    We can clearly see Sunak doing worse than Johnson in northern seats with Labour the main challenger..

    I presume you're of the view the removal of Boris Johnson by the Conservative Parliamentary Party constitutes an error of similar magnitude to the ousting of Margaret Thatcher in November 1990?
    Major at least got a bounce relative to Thatcher.

    Sunak has got a bounce relative to Truss but not relative to Boris overall maybe but there is some evidence Sunak has got a bounce relative to Boris in the bluewall
    I'm not sure the last comment is correct either.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-21-22-november-2022/

    We haven't had any recent polling to see if the Conservatives have improved their fortunes. The May local elections will have a lot of contests in Blue Wall Council areas such as Guildford, Waverley and West Berkshire to name but three. It will be interesting to see what movement there has been since 2019.
    Sunak leads Starmer as preferred PM 49% to 31% in the bluewall

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/blue-wall-voting-intention-13-14-november-2022/
    Which became 44-35 just a week later.
    And the blue wall being entirely made up of previously comfortable Tory seats with a large overall lead in 2019. It’s very different from the red wall.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,602
    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    In some good news for Sunak the swing against the Conservatives in Chester when he was PM was less than in Tiverton and Honiton when Boris was PM and the swing In Stretford earlier this month less than in Wakefield earlier this year.

    Truss also the first PM in history not to face a by election given she was in office for so short a period

    How about comparing the swing in Wakefield (12.7%) with Chester (13.7%) ?

    We can clearly see Sunak doing worse than Johnson in northern seats with Labour the main challenger..

    I presume you're of the view the removal of Boris Johnson by the Conservative Parliamentary Party constitutes an error of similar magnitude to the ousting of Margaret Thatcher in November 1990?
    Major at least got a bounce relative to Thatcher.

    Sunak has got a bounce relative to Truss but not relative to Boris overall maybe but there is some evidence Sunak has got a bounce relative to Boris in the bluewall
    I'm not sure the last comment is correct either.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-21-22-november-2022/

    We haven't had any recent polling to see if the Conservatives have improved their fortunes. The May local elections will have a lot of contests in Blue Wall Council areas such as Guildford, Waverley and West Berkshire to name but three. It will be interesting to see what movement there has been since 2019.
    Most interesting variable in the blue wall is the extent to which the swing away from Tories is in favour of the Lib Dems or Labour. Former is worse for Sunak.
    Absolutely - the 2023 local election contests are multi-faceted and we will need to see if there is any serious Labour advance in southern Councils or whether the Conservatives are losing primarily to LDs, Greens, Independents, Residents etc.

    I'd be looking at somewhere like Dartford - currently, the 42 Councillors are split 29 Conservative, 10 Labour and 3 Residents. Last time, the Conservatives won 53% and Labour 27.5%. It's a Council Labour held from 1995 to 2003 so if you're thinking about a 1997-style result you'd need t see this authority back under Labour control but they need 12 gains.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,602
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    In some good news for Sunak the swing against the Conservatives in Chester when he was PM was less than in Tiverton and Honiton when Boris was PM and the swing In Stretford earlier this month less than in Wakefield earlier this year.

    Truss also the first PM in history not to face a by election given she was in office for so short a period

    How about comparing the swing in Wakefield (12.7%) with Chester (13.7%) ?

    We can clearly see Sunak doing worse than Johnson in northern seats with Labour the main challenger..

    I presume you're of the view the removal of Boris Johnson by the Conservative Parliamentary Party constitutes an error of similar magnitude to the ousting of Margaret Thatcher in November 1990?
    Major at least got a bounce relative to Thatcher.

    Sunak has got a bounce relative to Truss but not relative to Boris overall maybe but there is some evidence Sunak has got a bounce relative to Boris in the bluewall
    I'm not sure the last comment is correct either.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-21-22-november-2022/

    We haven't had any recent polling to see if the Conservatives have improved their fortunes. The May local elections will have a lot of contests in Blue Wall Council areas such as Guildford, Waverley and West Berkshire to name but three. It will be interesting to see what movement there has been since 2019.
    Sunak leads Starmer as preferred PM 49% to 31% in the bluewall

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/blue-wall-voting-intention-13-14-november-2022/
    Which became 44-35 just a week later.
    So still a big 9% lead, preferred PM numbers are often more accurate than voting intention see 2015 or 1992
    This is straw clutching at its very best. We obviously don't know what the preferred PM numbers were before the 2019 GE at which the Conservatives got 50% in the Blue Wall seats, the LDs 27% and Labour 21%.

    The swing in voting intention from Conservative to Labour is 20%.

    The other thing to remember is this is a forced choice between Sunak and Starmer which is not the same as the Voting Intention question which allows for other parties. It's always possible LD and Green supporters might "prefer" Sunak but that doesn't mean they'll vote Conservative. 21% Don't Know is also worth bearing in mind unless you think, as with Reform Party supporters, they are all basically Tories.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,715
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    There is more chance of mankind dying out in the next year - from AI, aliens, war, plague or possibly climate change - than in any previous year in civilised human history. And yes, I am including the Black Death

    Happy New Year!

    It depends whether the six year old child in some technically advanced "civilisation" finally gets bored and turns off this simulation we live in. She has tried to spice it up by turning on disaster mode but she is easily bored I suspect. Blink.

    Ahh - the sheer pleasure of panic!
    I would actually stand by my statement. Even when the Black Death was ravaging the world, at worst it killed 60% of society, and left enough people to quickly restore an agrarian medieval economy (it's not hard, just plant stuff and wait)

    So there was no sincere threat of us going extinct. Now, there is, from any one or a combination of those threats. The threat is vanishingly small, but it is there, and not quite as small as it was

    Probably the last time homo sapiens was this endangered was when we were still in Africa, 150,000 years ago, and nearly got wiped out by the weather

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/when-the-sea-saved-humanity-2012-12-07/
    Garbage.

    The most extreme nuclear war/biological war concepts ever created would kill maybe 90% of the human race. Survival would be biased to hunter gathers and low tech farmers.

    Rebuilding would be much easier. The steel in a few building structures might be more iron than the Roman Empire used. In its entirety…

    Flint knapping wouldn’t be a useful skill.
    Global nuclear war under current geopolitical circumstances would be largely a northern hemisphere and probably extra-tropical phenomenon with only a few exceptions. South America, Africa and depending on the conflict, South East Asia and the Antipodes would be safe (the latter for Russia v NATO but not China v the West). So despite economic depression and crisis - which countries like Argentina are used to anyway - humankind would be up running in no time.

    Biological Armageddon could be more global and a little more like the Black Death but as you say with more infrastructure and technology readily available.

    Runaway global warming gives us some serious issues because there’s no simple reset and regrowth once the runaway process starts. But it’s not in the likely scientific scenarios at the moment and we would at least have a bit more notice.

    AI taking over…if and when it happens I reckon we go out not with a bang but a cyborg whimper.
    The mega deaths in the Southern Hemisphere would result from the ending of the support that they receive from the Northern Hemisphere, largely.
    Which in traditionally autarkic Latin America should be easily survivable, and in Southern Africa might be less problematic than for the Sahel and Maghreb.
    The level of autarky in Latin America is more wished for than real.

    A complete cut off of Northern Hemisphere originated trade would drop the carry capacity of South America by 70%+, I reckon….
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,715
    Repost from last thread -

    A thought occurs.

    Game Theory time.

    Postulates

    1) The Conservative Party is heading for a drubbing
    2) Many Conservative MPs will lose seats
    3) This will mean many Conservative MPs will be on the job market.
    4) the kind of jobs ex politicians want - consulting, influence pedalling etc are not infinite in number.

    How many might quit early? Announcing you are standing down at the next election is one thing. A number have done this.

    Standing down *now* and getting away from the association with the “oncoming freight train” might be attractive.

    How many will do that? Early “defectors” win…

    Could we see a non trivial erosion of the governments majority?
  • HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    In some good news for Sunak the swing against the Conservatives in Chester when he was PM was less than in Tiverton and Honiton when Boris was PM and the swing In Stretford earlier this month less than in Wakefield earlier this year.

    Truss also the first PM in history not to face a by election given she was in office for so short a period

    How about comparing the swing in Wakefield (12.7%) with Chester (13.7%) ?

    We can clearly see Sunak doing worse than Johnson in northern seats with Labour the main challenger..

    I presume you're of the view the removal of Boris Johnson by the Conservative Parliamentary Party constitutes an error of similar magnitude to the ousting of Margaret Thatcher in November 1990?
    Major at least got a bounce relative to Thatcher.

    Sunak has got a bounce relative to Truss but not relative to Boris overall maybe but there is some evidence Sunak has got a bounce relative to Boris in the bluewall
    I'm not sure the last comment is correct either.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-21-22-november-2022/

    We haven't had any recent polling to see if the Conservatives have improved their fortunes. The May local elections will have a lot of contests in Blue Wall Council areas such as Guildford, Waverley and West Berkshire to name but three. It will be interesting to see what movement there has been since 2019.
    Sunak leads Starmer as preferred PM 49% to 31% in the bluewall

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/blue-wall-voting-intention-13-14-november-2022/
    Which became 44-35 just a week later.
    So still a big 9% lead, preferred PM numbers are often more accurate than voting intention see 2015 or 1992
    But this is from a poll specifically of so-called "blue wall" seats where Labour got 21% to the Tories' 50% in 2019. Important not to confuse it with a normal preferred PM poll.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,345
    TimS said:

    On the topic of walls, I know we have the famous red one, the popular blue one and relatively new sea wall. Is there an equivalent for the agricultural Wessex and West Country seats that were traditionally liberal leaning but swept Cameron to power in 2015? West of Andover and stretching up into the Marches. It’s not blue wall in the proper sense of the word. Blue hedgerow?

    We might as well parcel up the rest of England. The brick wall: inner urban labour strongholds. The purple heart: the ukip-scented Tory stronghold from the Thames estuary up into the East Midlands and Lincs. That just leaves the comfortably stable West midlands and the very politically mixed outer suburbs without their own walls.

    West Country seats could be the (Clotted) Cream Wall?
  • ydoethur said:

    My word, did I bagsy a first?

    What a great way to the end the year!

    Unlike the Conservtaives.

    Did we ever see Parish's John Deere letter?
    In fairness, Neil has sought professional help for his addiction to the sort of hardcore agricultural equipment filth that is so widely available on the world wide web these days.

    With the assistance of his therapist and support of his family, let's all hope he becomes an ex-tractor fan in 2023.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,217

    ydoethur said:

    My word, did I bagsy a first?

    What a great way to the end the year!

    Unlike the Conservtaives.

    Did we ever see Parish's John Deere letter?
    In fairness, Neil has sought professional help for his addiction to the sort of hardcore agricultural equipment filth that is so widely available on the world wide web these days.

    With the assistance of his therapist and support of his family, let's all hope he becomes an ex-tractor fan in 2023.
    Are you suggesting he will be letting the steam out?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,772

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    There is more chance of mankind dying out in the next year - from AI, aliens, war, plague or possibly climate change - than in any previous year in civilised human history. And yes, I am including the Black Death

    Happy New Year!

    It depends whether the six year old child in some technically advanced "civilisation" finally gets bored and turns off this simulation we live in. She has tried to spice it up by turning on disaster mode but she is easily bored I suspect. Blink.

    Ahh - the sheer pleasure of panic!
    I would actually stand by my statement. Even when the Black Death was ravaging the world, at worst it killed 60% of society, and left enough people to quickly restore an agrarian medieval economy (it's not hard, just plant stuff and wait)

    So there was no sincere threat of us going extinct. Now, there is, from any one or a combination of those threats. The threat is vanishingly small, but it is there, and not quite as small as it was

    Probably the last time homo sapiens was this endangered was when we were still in Africa, 150,000 years ago, and nearly got wiped out by the weather

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/when-the-sea-saved-humanity-2012-12-07/
    Garbage.

    The most extreme nuclear war/biological war concepts ever created would kill maybe 90% of the human race. Survival would be biased to hunter gathers and low tech farmers.

    Rebuilding would be much easier. The steel in a few building structures might be more iron than the Roman Empire used. In its entirety…

    Flint knapping wouldn’t be a useful skill.
    You're not getting my point

    The chances of humanity going extinct in any year have always been vanishingly small. Say 0.0000001%

    Well, next year it is 0.000003%. Still terrifically unlikely but not *quite* as unlikely as it was

    The way it would happen would probably be some combination of those threats: all out nuclear war leading to some terrible climate disaster, pushing an already volatile climate into something apocalyptic. Plus a terrible new variant of Covid with R0 of R89 and an IFR of 97% to mop up whose left

    A few survivors might make it into 2024, then hunger and cold would take em

    Aliens are probably much more of a threat in terms of instant wipe out but they are something of a Deux Ex Machina so I'll leave them be, for now

  • HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    In some good news for Sunak the swing against the Conservatives in Chester when he was PM was less than in Tiverton and Honiton when Boris was PM and the swing In Stretford earlier this month less than in Wakefield earlier this year.

    Truss also the first PM in history not to face a by election given she was in office for so short a period

    How about comparing the swing in Wakefield (12.7%) with Chester (13.7%) ?

    We can clearly see Sunak doing worse than Johnson in northern seats with Labour the main challenger..

    I presume you're of the view the removal of Boris Johnson by the Conservative Parliamentary Party constitutes an error of similar magnitude to the ousting of Margaret Thatcher in November 1990?
    Major at least got a bounce relative to Thatcher.

    Sunak has got a bounce relative to Truss but not relative to Boris overall maybe but there is some evidence Sunak has got a bounce relative to Boris in the bluewall
    I'm not sure the last comment is correct either.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-21-22-november-2022/

    We haven't had any recent polling to see if the Conservatives have improved their fortunes. The May local elections will have a lot of contests in Blue Wall Council areas such as Guildford, Waverley and West Berkshire to name but three. It will be interesting to see what movement there has been since 2019.
    Sunak leads Starmer as preferred PM 49% to 31% in the bluewall
    and by 9% even at your link
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/blue-wall-voting-intention-13-14-november-2022/
    What were the equivalent figures for Johnson and Corbyn in 2019?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,340

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    There is more chance of mankind dying out in the next year - from AI, aliens, war, plague or possibly climate change - than in any previous year in civilised human history. And yes, I am including the Black Death

    Happy New Year!

    It depends whether the six year old child in some technically advanced "civilisation" finally gets bored and turns off this simulation we live in. She has tried to spice it up by turning on disaster mode but she is easily bored I suspect. Blink.

    Ahh - the sheer pleasure of panic!
    I would actually stand by my statement. Even when the Black Death was ravaging the world, at worst it killed 60% of society, and left enough people to quickly restore an agrarian medieval economy (it's not hard, just plant stuff and wait)

    So there was no sincere threat of us going extinct. Now, there is, from any one or a combination of those threats. The threat is vanishingly small, but it is there, and not quite as small as it was

    Probably the last time homo sapiens was this endangered was when we were still in Africa, 150,000 years ago, and nearly got wiped out by the weather

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/when-the-sea-saved-humanity-2012-12-07/
    Garbage.

    The most extreme nuclear war/biological war concepts ever created would kill maybe 90% of the human race. Survival would be biased to hunter gathers and low tech farmers.

    Rebuilding would be much easier. The steel in a few building structures might be more iron than the Roman Empire used. In its entirety…

    Flint knapping wouldn’t be a useful skill.
    Global nuclear war under current geopolitical circumstances would be largely a northern hemisphere and probably extra-tropical phenomenon with only a few exceptions. South America, Africa and depending on the conflict, South East Asia and the Antipodes would be safe (the latter for Russia v NATO but not China v the West). So despite economic depression and crisis - which countries like Argentina are used to anyway - humankind would be up running in no time.

    Biological Armageddon could be more global and a little more like the Black Death but as you say with more infrastructure and technology readily available.

    Runaway global warming gives us some serious issues because there’s no simple reset and regrowth once the runaway process starts. But it’s not in the likely scientific scenarios at the moment and we would at least have a bit more notice.

    AI taking over…if and when it happens I reckon we go out not with a bang but a cyborg whimper.
    The mega deaths in the Southern Hemisphere would result from the ending of the support that they receive from the Northern Hemisphere, largely.
    You are missing the point. Who would have the better test team? Only then can we decide if this is serious or not.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,340

    ydoethur said:

    My word, did I bagsy a first?

    What a great way to the end the year!

    Unlike the Conservtaives.

    Did we ever see Parish's John Deere letter?
    In fairness, Neil has sought professional help for his addiction to the sort of hardcore agricultural equipment filth that is so widely available on the world wide web these days.

    With the assistance of his therapist and support of his family, let's all hope he becomes an ex-tractor fan in 2023.
    It will take a long time for the extractor to remove the stink though.
  • Repost from last thread -

    A thought occurs.

    Game Theory time.

    Postulates

    1) The Conservative Party is heading for a drubbing
    2) Many Conservative MPs will lose seats
    3) This will mean many Conservative MPs will be on the job market.
    4) the kind of jobs ex politicians want - consulting, influence pedalling etc are not infinite in number.

    How many might quit early? Announcing you are standing down at the next election is one thing. A number have done this.

    Standing down *now* and getting away from the association with the “oncoming freight train” might be attractive.

    How many will do that? Early “defectors” win…

    Could we see a non trivial erosion of the governments majority?

    How many of those jobs require an MP to stand down? It may be better for their reputation if they do, but if they're standing down or losing next time, who gives a flying one?
  • TimS said:

    On the topic of walls, I know we have the famous red one, the popular blue one and relatively new sea wall. Is there an equivalent for the agricultural Wessex and West Country seats that were traditionally liberal leaning but swept Cameron to power in 2015? West of Andover and stretching up into the Marches. It’s not blue wall in the proper sense of the word. Blue hedgerow?

    We might as well parcel up the rest of England. The brick wall: inner urban labour strongholds. The purple heart: the ukip-scented Tory stronghold from the Thames estuary up into the East Midlands and Lincs. That just leaves the comfortably stable West midlands and the very politically mixed outer suburbs without their own walls.

    In the hillier parts of the country it would be the Dry Stone Wall.
    "I am a dry stone waller.
    All day I dry stone wall.
    Of all appalling callings,
    Dry stone walling's,
    Worst of all"
    (Pam Ayres)
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,053
    edited December 2022

    Repost from last thread -

    A thought occurs.

    Game Theory time.

    Postulates

    1) The Conservative Party is heading for a drubbing
    2) Many Conservative MPs will lose seats
    3) This will mean many Conservative MPs will be on the job market.
    4) the kind of jobs ex politicians want - consulting, influence pedalling etc are not infinite in number.

    How many might quit early? Announcing you are standing down at the next election is one thing. A number have done this.

    Standing down *now* and getting away from the association with the “oncoming freight train” might be attractive.

    How many will do that? Early “defectors” win…

    Could we see a non trivial erosion of the governments majority?

    Even counting the seven (?) currently suspended Tories as part of the opposition (which isn't really correct) the Tories have a majority of 69.

    So, in terms of any erosion being "non-trivial" enough to come anywhere close to threatening their working majority - absolutely no chance.

    There will also be a lot of pressure not to trigger by-elections at this stage, and most will stick with that even if it is at a cost (we might see an incongrous knighthood or two this time next year I shouldn't wonder). I'd also note it wasn't really a feature 2005-10 or 1992-1997 when losses were anticipated. Also, quite a few of the jobs people will angle for can actually be done alongside being a (due to "retire") MP and without using the MP salary.

    Overall, they could lose one or two but I can't see this being a big feature.
  • TimS said:

    On the topic of walls, I know we have the famous red one, the popular blue one and relatively new sea wall. Is there an equivalent for the agricultural Wessex and West Country seats that were traditionally liberal leaning but swept Cameron to power in 2015? West of Andover and stretching up into the Marches. It’s not blue wall in the proper sense of the word. Blue hedgerow?

    We might as well parcel up the rest of England. The brick wall: inner urban labour strongholds. The purple heart: the ukip-scented Tory stronghold from the Thames estuary up into the East Midlands and Lincs. That just leaves the comfortably stable West midlands and the very politically mixed outer suburbs without their own walls.

    West Country seats could be the (Clotted) Cream Wall?
    AND do NOT forget the Peace Walls of Northern Ireland.

    Albeit UK in general, and CUP in particular, would dearly love to. As per BJ the Snow-Man and his brain-frozen elf Frosty.
  • Latest Opinium poll has Starmer ahead of Sunak as best PM.

    Is HYUFD highlighting this?
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    My word, did I bagsy a first?

    What a great way to the end the year!

    Unlike the Conservtaives.

    Did we ever see Parish's John Deere letter?
    In fairness, Neil has sought professional help for his addiction to the sort of hardcore agricultural equipment filth that is so widely available on the world wide web these days.

    With the assistance of his therapist and support of his family, let's all hope he becomes an ex-tractor fan in 2023.
    Are you suggesting he will be letting the steam out?
    Would hoped-for recovery of NP from his farm-machinery fetish, auger well for remaining Tory MPs?
  • Latest Opinium poll has Starmer ahead of Sunak as best PM.

    Is HYUFD highlighting this?

    Only IF you are really HYUFD! And visa versa!!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,217

    Latest Opinium poll has Starmer ahead of Sunak as best PM.

    Is HYUFD highlighting this?

    Sir Keir Starmer unfans, please explain.
  • Latest Opinium poll has Starmer ahead of Sunak as best PM.

    Is HYUFD highlighting this?

    Keep Calmer and...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,385
    As critical incidents are now declared at NHS trusts nationwide…

    As waiting lists, ambulance and A&E waits reach record lengths

    As nurses strike or leave the profession in their thousands

    Remember this staggering video by Vote Leave

    See the lies then

    See the truth now.

    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1609170533542760453/video/1
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,715

    Repost from last thread -

    A thought occurs.

    Game Theory time.

    Postulates

    1) The Conservative Party is heading for a drubbing
    2) Many Conservative MPs will lose seats
    3) This will mean many Conservative MPs will be on the job market.
    4) the kind of jobs ex politicians want - consulting, influence pedalling etc are not infinite in number.

    How many might quit early? Announcing you are standing down at the next election is one thing. A number have done this.

    Standing down *now* and getting away from the association with the “oncoming freight train” might be attractive.

    How many will do that? Early “defectors” win…

    Could we see a non trivial erosion of the governments majority?

    Even counting the seven (?) currently suspended Tories as part of the opposition (which isn't really correct) the Tories have a majority of 69.

    So, in terms of any erosion being "non-trivial" enough to come anywhere close to threatening their working majority - absolutely no chance.

    There will also be a lot of pressure not to trigger by-elections at this stage, and most will stick with that even if it is at a cost (we might see an incongrous knighthood or two this time next year I shouldn't wonder). I'd also note it wasn't really a feature 2005-10 or 1992-1997 when losses were anticipated. Also, quite a few of the jobs people will angle for can actually be done alongside being a (due to "retire") MP and without using the MP salary.

    Overall, they could lose one or two but I can't see this being a big feature.
    97 was unexpected because after 92, they thought that a) something would turn up, b) it’s not really that bad.

    We now live in the timeline where 97 happened. And the Canadian wipeout.

    Even losing 20 MPs would be a big deal - rebellions get a lot easier.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,217
    edited December 2022
    Is it very wrong of me to hope the heavy rain will keep going so people don't let off fireworks all night?

    Edit - doesn't seem to be stopping them anyway.
  • ydoethur said:

    Is it very wrong of me to hope the heavy rain will keep going so people don't let off fireworks all night?

    If you drink enough you will not care ;)
  • Pops out again....
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,288

    Hartlepool seems such a long time ago.

    Indeed.

    @CorrectHorseBattery3 called it at the time here as peak,Johnson and he was right.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,340
    ydoethur said:

    Is it very wrong of me to hope the heavy rain will keep going so people don't let off fireworks all night?

    It would certainly be a shame if the fireworks over the Castle in Edinburgh tonight were turned into a damp squib. Really looking forward to it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,340

    Just popping in to say Happy New Year to you all

    And a happy new year to you too.

    Damn. Too slow.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,217
    DavidL said:

    Just popping in to say Happy New Year to you all

    And a happy new year to you too.

    Damn. Too slow.
    There's a whole new year to wish her that in. If you've missed it...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 24,703
    edited December 2022
    HYUFD said:

    In some good news for Sunak the swing against the Conservatives in Chester when he was PM was less than in Tiverton and Honiton when Boris was PM and the swing In Stretford earlier this month less than in Wakefield earlier this year.

    Truss also the first PM in history not to face a by election given she was in office for so short a period

    Given the circumstances surrounding those byelections this can hardly be credited to Sunak.

    Happy New Year all!
  • Happy New Year everyone. Heading out later - although I'm not sure how I'm going to stay awake after about three hours' sleep on the plane last night and the change of timezones. I hope 2023 brings us lots of new interesting things to bicker about aimlessly, and good health and happy times more broadly.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 24,703
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is it very wrong of me to hope the heavy rain will keep going so people don't let off fireworks all night?

    It would certainly be a shame if the fireworks over the Castle in Edinburgh tonight were turned into a damp squib. Really looking forward to it.
    If the fireworks people in Edinburgh haven't factored in heavy rain, the Department for Education will want a call about potential recruitment.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,340

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is it very wrong of me to hope the heavy rain will keep going so people don't let off fireworks all night?

    It would certainly be a shame if the fireworks over the Castle in Edinburgh tonight were turned into a damp squib. Really looking forward to it.
    If the fireworks people in Edinburgh haven't factored in heavy rain, the Department for Education will want a call about potential recruitment.
    I kinda get your point but the idea that the Department for Education are likely to be able to assist anyone with anything that involves forward planning is more based on hope than experience!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,715

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is it very wrong of me to hope the heavy rain will keep going so people don't let off fireworks all night?

    It would certainly be a shame if the fireworks over the Castle in Edinburgh tonight were turned into a damp squib. Really looking forward to it.
    If the fireworks people in Edinburgh haven't factored in heavy rain, the Department for Education will want a call about potential recruitment.
    I need to write up my theory on Dark Matter.

    That as civilisations progress, they accumulate more and more functionaries. Of greater and greater density. Eventually they collapse into Dark Matter. Which is nothing less than stupidity and bullshit at the density of neutronium.

    This at once explains the absence of intelligence in the universe and the Dark Matter problem.

    In the dark gulfs between the stars, DfE eternal lies dreaming….
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,715
    ydoethur said:

    Is it very wrong of me to hope the heavy rain will keep going so people don't let off fireworks all night?

    Edit - doesn't seem to be stopping them anyway.

    Since keeping a large quantity of explosives around is too stupid for all but the dimmest, and they will have invited friends etc, nothing less than the Apocalypse will stop them now.
  • I know we've said this for the last few years but ... let's hope next year is better than this year!

    Happy New Year all 👍
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,475

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    There is more chance of mankind dying out in the next year - from AI, aliens, war, plague or possibly climate change - than in any previous year in civilised human history. And yes, I am including the Black Death

    Happy New Year!

    It depends whether the six year old child in some technically advanced "civilisation" finally gets bored and turns off this simulation we live in. She has tried to spice it up by turning on disaster mode but she is easily bored I suspect. Blink.

    Ahh - the sheer pleasure of panic!
    I would actually stand by my statement. Even when the Black Death was ravaging the world, at worst it killed 60% of society, and left enough people to quickly restore an agrarian medieval economy (it's not hard, just plant stuff and wait)

    So there was no sincere threat of us going extinct. Now, there is, from any one or a combination of those threats. The threat is vanishingly small, but it is there, and not quite as small as it was

    Probably the last time homo sapiens was this endangered was when we were still in Africa, 150,000 years ago, and nearly got wiped out by the weather

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/when-the-sea-saved-humanity-2012-12-07/
    Garbage.

    The most extreme nuclear war/biological war concepts ever created would kill maybe 90% of the human race. Survival would be biased to hunter gathers and low tech farmers.

    Rebuilding would be much easier. The steel in a few building structures might be more iron than the Roman Empire used. In its entirety…

    Flint knapping wouldn’t be a useful skill.
    On the other hand, humanity would not have access to ample, easy to exploit hydrocarbons. Oil would, essentially, not exist for humankind as they rebuilt. And much of the easiest to exploit coal has gone too.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 1,886
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    There is more chance of mankind dying out in the next year - from AI, aliens, war, plague or possibly climate change - than in any previous year in civilised human history. And yes, I am including the Black Death

    Happy New Year!

    It depends whether the six year old child in some technically advanced "civilisation" finally gets bored and turns off this simulation we live in. She has tried to spice it up by turning on disaster mode but she is easily bored I suspect. Blink.

    Ahh - the sheer pleasure of panic!
    I would actually stand by my statement. Even when the Black Death was ravaging the world, at worst it killed 60% of society, and left enough people to quickly restore an agrarian medieval economy (it's not hard, just plant stuff and wait)

    So there was no sincere threat of us going extinct. Now, there is, from any one or a combination of those threats. The threat is vanishingly small, but it is there, and not quite as small as it was

    Probably the last time homo sapiens was this endangered was when we were still in Africa, 150,000 years ago, and nearly got wiped out by the weather

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/when-the-sea-saved-humanity-2012-12-07/
    Garbage.

    The most extreme nuclear war/biological war concepts ever created would kill maybe 90% of the human race. Survival would be biased to hunter gathers and low tech farmers.

    Rebuilding would be much easier. The steel in a few building structures might be more iron than the Roman Empire used. In its entirety…

    Flint knapping wouldn’t be a useful skill.
    You're not getting my point

    The chances of humanity going extinct in any year have always been vanishingly small. Say 0.0000001%

    Well, next year it is 0.000003%. Still terrifically unlikely but not *quite* as unlikely as it was

    The way it would happen would probably be some combination of those threats: all out nuclear war leading to some terrible climate disaster, pushing an already volatile climate into something apocalyptic. Plus a terrible new variant of Covid with R0 of R89 and an IFR of 97% to mop up whose left

    A few survivors might make it into 2024, then hunger and cold would take em

    Aliens are probably much more of a threat in terms of instant wipe out but they are something of a Deux Ex Machina so I'll leave them be, for now

    Solar flares or gamma ray bursts or asteroid impacts still most likely.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 1,886
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    There is more chance of mankind dying out in the next year - from AI, aliens, war, plague or possibly climate change - than in any previous year in civilised human history. And yes, I am including the Black Death

    Happy New Year!

    It depends whether the six year old child in some technically advanced "civilisation" finally gets bored and turns off this simulation we live in. She has tried to spice it up by turning on disaster mode but she is easily bored I suspect. Blink.

    Ahh - the sheer pleasure of panic!
    I would actually stand by my statement. Even when the Black Death was ravaging the world, at worst it killed 60% of society, and left enough people to quickly restore an agrarian medieval economy (it's not hard, just plant stuff and wait)

    So there was no sincere threat of us going extinct. Now, there is, from any one or a combination of those threats. The threat is vanishingly small, but it is there, and not quite as small as it was

    Probably the last time homo sapiens was this endangered was when we were still in Africa, 150,000 years ago, and nearly got wiped out by the weather

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/when-the-sea-saved-humanity-2012-12-07/
    Garbage.

    The most extreme nuclear war/biological war concepts ever created would kill maybe 90% of the human race. Survival would be biased to hunter gathers and low tech farmers.

    Rebuilding would be much easier. The steel in a few building structures might be more iron than the Roman Empire used. In its entirety…

    Flint knapping wouldn’t be a useful skill.
    On the other hand, humanity would not have access to ample, easy to exploit hydrocarbons. Oil would, essentially, not exist for humankind as they rebuilt. And much of the easiest to exploit coal has gone too.
    But we would have the knowledge of fiat money and corporate entities and private property and constitutional government.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,340
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    There is more chance of mankind dying out in the next year - from AI, aliens, war, plague or possibly climate change - than in any previous year in civilised human history. And yes, I am including the Black Death

    Happy New Year!

    It depends whether the six year old child in some technically advanced "civilisation" finally gets bored and turns off this simulation we live in. She has tried to spice it up by turning on disaster mode but she is easily bored I suspect. Blink.

    Ahh - the sheer pleasure of panic!
    I would actually stand by my statement. Even when the Black Death was ravaging the world, at worst it killed 60% of society, and left enough people to quickly restore an agrarian medieval economy (it's not hard, just plant stuff and wait)

    So there was no sincere threat of us going extinct. Now, there is, from any one or a combination of those threats. The threat is vanishingly small, but it is there, and not quite as small as it was

    Probably the last time homo sapiens was this endangered was when we were still in Africa, 150,000 years ago, and nearly got wiped out by the weather

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/when-the-sea-saved-humanity-2012-12-07/
    Garbage.

    The most extreme nuclear war/biological war concepts ever created would kill maybe 90% of the human race. Survival would be biased to hunter gathers and low tech farmers.

    Rebuilding would be much easier. The steel in a few building structures might be more iron than the Roman Empire used. In its entirety…

    Flint knapping wouldn’t be a useful skill.
    On the other hand, humanity would not have access to ample, easy to exploit hydrocarbons. Oil would, essentially, not exist for humankind as they rebuilt. And much of the easiest to exploit coal has gone too.
    But, but surely we will have fusion within 20 years? 😉
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,340
    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    There is more chance of mankind dying out in the next year - from AI, aliens, war, plague or possibly climate change - than in any previous year in civilised human history. And yes, I am including the Black Death

    Happy New Year!

    It depends whether the six year old child in some technically advanced "civilisation" finally gets bored and turns off this simulation we live in. She has tried to spice it up by turning on disaster mode but she is easily bored I suspect. Blink.

    Ahh - the sheer pleasure of panic!
    I would actually stand by my statement. Even when the Black Death was ravaging the world, at worst it killed 60% of society, and left enough people to quickly restore an agrarian medieval economy (it's not hard, just plant stuff and wait)

    So there was no sincere threat of us going extinct. Now, there is, from any one or a combination of those threats. The threat is vanishingly small, but it is there, and not quite as small as it was

    Probably the last time homo sapiens was this endangered was when we were still in Africa, 150,000 years ago, and nearly got wiped out by the weather

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/when-the-sea-saved-humanity-2012-12-07/
    Garbage.

    The most extreme nuclear war/biological war concepts ever created would kill maybe 90% of the human race. Survival would be biased to hunter gathers and low tech farmers.

    Rebuilding would be much easier. The steel in a few building structures might be more iron than the Roman Empire used. In its entirety…

    Flint knapping wouldn’t be a useful skill.
    On the other hand, humanity would not have access to ample, easy to exploit hydrocarbons. Oil would, essentially, not exist for humankind as they rebuilt. And much of the easiest to exploit coal has gone too.
    But we would have the knowledge of fiat money and corporate entities and private property and constitutional government.
    Only older Americans will remember the last of these.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    As a suggestion for Space Year 2023 we could create a system of random by-elections.

    The sitting MPs of the day are kept on their toes by a computer with a snazzy name picking out at random one constituency seat per quarter where the incumbent has to defend their majority.

    Partly to ensure a certain amount of squeaky-bum-ness in sitting MPs - a continual reminder that they could have to justify their seat to the electors at any given moment might focus minds. Partly just for the lulz. Or something.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,475

    . . . meanwhile back at the ranch . . .

    Politico.com - McCarthy struggles to appease conservative demands as speakership battle nears
    The GOP leader again raised making it easier for members to force a vote to depose the speaker, a move that could severely weaken him if he does manage to take the gavel next term.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/30/gop-leader-votes-kevin-mccarthy-00075867

    Rollcall.com - Speaker race headed toward dramatic floor election
    McCarthy opponents and supporters not budging, expect multiple ballots

    https://rollcall.com/2022/12/30/speaker-race-headed-toward-dramatic-floor-election/


    Foxnews.com - GOP faces delay in unlocking full powers of House if McCarthy cannot clinch speakership - Legislation, subpoenas face delays if House does not elect a speaker on Jan. 3

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-faces-delay-unlocking-full-powers-house-mccarthy-cannot-clinch-speakership

    The Democrats should announce their full support for a McCarthy speakership.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 8,615
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    There is more chance of mankind dying out in the next year - from AI, aliens, war, plague or possibly climate change - than in any previous year in civilised human history. And yes, I am including the Black Death

    Happy New Year!

    It depends whether the six year old child in some technically advanced "civilisation" finally gets bored and turns off this simulation we live in. She has tried to spice it up by turning on disaster mode but she is easily bored I suspect. Blink.

    Ahh - the sheer pleasure of panic!
    I would actually stand by my statement. Even when the Black Death was ravaging the world, at worst it killed 60% of society, and left enough people to quickly restore an agrarian medieval economy (it's not hard, just plant stuff and wait)

    So there was no sincere threat of us going extinct. Now, there is, from any one or a combination of those threats. The threat is vanishingly small, but it is there, and not quite as small as it was

    Probably the last time homo sapiens was this endangered was when we were still in Africa, 150,000 years ago, and nearly got wiped out by the weather

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/when-the-sea-saved-humanity-2012-12-07/
    Garbage.

    The most extreme nuclear war/biological war concepts ever created would kill maybe 90% of the human race. Survival would be biased to hunter gathers and low tech farmers.

    Rebuilding would be much easier. The steel in a few building structures might be more iron than the Roman Empire used. In its entirety…

    Flint knapping wouldn’t be a useful skill.
    On the other hand, humanity would not have access to ample, easy to exploit hydrocarbons. Oil would, essentially, not exist for humankind as they rebuilt. And much of the easiest to exploit coal has gone too.
    It would, especially if the main oil consumers in the North are wiped out. Brazil and Venezuela have oil and gas, the Aussies have coal, South America and Southern and central Africa have a large portion of the world’s base and precious mineral resources.

    The new hegemon in this post-apocalyptic world? Probably Brazil, but Chile, South and Australia would run it close. Or, if it’s just a Russia-NATO spat then China becomes sold global superpower.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 8,615

    As a suggestion for Space Year 2023 we could create a system of random by-elections.

    The sitting MPs of the day are kept on their toes by a computer with a snazzy name picking out at random one constituency seat per quarter where the incumbent has to defend their majority.

    Partly to ensure a certain amount of squeaky-bum-ness in sitting MPs - a continual reminder that they could have to justify their seat to the electors at any given moment might focus minds. Partly just for the lulz. Or something.

    Even better suggestion: a PR system based on STV where an MP can lose to a better candidate on their own side if they’re not behaving well. STV is like the F1 or Tour de France team dynamic in that respect.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 902

    The steel in a few building structures might be more iron than the Roman Empire used. In its entirety…

    I think this is wrong, but only by a few orders of magnitude. Wikipedia says Roman iron production is estimated at 82,500 tonnes a year; no doubt that's a near-peak level (with massive error bars) but OTOH the empire lasted for centuries. On the other side of the scales, One Canada Square supposedly used 27,500 tonnes of steel. So we might weigh in a few modern buildings at about the Roman Empire's peak annual iron production. The Romans certainly weren't super-scarce in iron -- apparently they used it to make street repairs in Pompeii.

    How helpful is modern steel as a material input to a low-tech civilisation anyway? I'm wondering if it would be the equivalent of porphyry in the post-Roman period, when the techniques and tools for working it had been lost, so preworked porphyry was a status symbol but very hard to repurpose...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,680
    Do we think Arsenal at 5-2 are value for the title?
    Seven points clear at New Year by the looks of it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,229
    edited December 2022
    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    There is more chance of mankind dying out in the next year - from AI, aliens, war, plague or possibly climate change - than in any previous year in civilised human history. And yes, I am including the Black Death

    Happy New Year!

    It depends whether the six year old child in some technically advanced "civilisation" finally gets bored and turns off this simulation we live in. She has tried to spice it up by turning on disaster mode but she is easily bored I suspect. Blink.

    Ahh - the sheer pleasure of panic!
    I would actually stand by my statement. Even when the Black Death was ravaging the world, at worst it killed 60% of society, and left enough people to quickly restore an agrarian medieval economy (it's not hard, just plant stuff and wait)

    So there was no sincere threat of us going extinct. Now, there is, from any one or a combination of those threats. The threat is vanishingly small, but it is there, and not quite as small as it was

    Probably the last time homo sapiens was this endangered was when we were still in Africa, 150,000 years ago, and nearly got wiped out by the weather

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/when-the-sea-saved-humanity-2012-12-07/
    Garbage.

    The most extreme nuclear war/biological war concepts ever created would kill maybe 90% of the human race. Survival would be biased to hunter gathers and low tech farmers.

    Rebuilding would be much easier. The steel in a few building structures might be more iron than the Roman Empire used. In its entirety…

    Flint knapping wouldn’t be a useful skill.
    On the other hand, humanity would not have access to ample, easy to exploit hydrocarbons. Oil would, essentially, not exist for humankind as they rebuilt. And much of the easiest to exploit coal has gone too.
    It would, especially if the main oil consumers in the North are wiped out. Brazil and Venezuela have oil and gas, the Aussies have coal, South America and Southern and central Africa have a large portion of the world’s base and precious mineral resources.

    The new hegemon in this post-apocalyptic world? Probably Brazil, but Chile, South and Australia would run it close. Or, if it’s just a Russia-NATO spat then China becomes sold global superpower.
    China and Russia are forming a close alliance v NATO and the West.

    Australia is firmly in the NATO sphere, imposing sanctions on Russia, sending military assistance to Ukraine and with its submarine partnership with us and the US to contain China

    https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/30/asia/china-xi-russia-putin-video-meeting-intl-hnk/index.html
  • https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1609253278826610691

    Sir Keir Starmer channels Tony Blair with plans to launch a 1997 style pledge card.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,114
    edited December 2022

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1609253278826610691

    Sir Keir Starmer channels Tony Blair with plans to launch a 1997 style pledge card.

    Will we get something like Miliband’s mugs?

    Edit - I probably meant the Edstone

    Were the mugs Ed’s work too?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,475
    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    There is more chance of mankind dying out in the next year - from AI, aliens, war, plague or possibly climate change - than in any previous year in civilised human history. And yes, I am including the Black Death

    Happy New Year!

    It depends whether the six year old child in some technically advanced "civilisation" finally gets bored and turns off this simulation we live in. She has tried to spice it up by turning on disaster mode but she is easily bored I suspect. Blink.

    Ahh - the sheer pleasure of panic!
    I would actually stand by my statement. Even when the Black Death was ravaging the world, at worst it killed 60% of society, and left enough people to quickly restore an agrarian medieval economy (it's not hard, just plant stuff and wait)

    So there was no sincere threat of us going extinct. Now, there is, from any one or a combination of those threats. The threat is vanishingly small, but it is there, and not quite as small as it was

    Probably the last time homo sapiens was this endangered was when we were still in Africa, 150,000 years ago, and nearly got wiped out by the weather

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/when-the-sea-saved-humanity-2012-12-07/
    Garbage.

    The most extreme nuclear war/biological war concepts ever created would kill maybe 90% of the human race. Survival would be biased to hunter gathers and low tech farmers.

    Rebuilding would be much easier. The steel in a few building structures might be more iron than the Roman Empire used. In its entirety…

    Flint knapping wouldn’t be a useful skill.
    On the other hand, humanity would not have access to ample, easy to exploit hydrocarbons. Oil would, essentially, not exist for humankind as they rebuilt. And much of the easiest to exploit coal has gone too.
    It would, especially if the main oil consumers in the North are wiped out. Brazil and Venezuela have oil and gas, the Aussies have coal, South America and Southern and central Africa have a large portion of the world’s base and precious mineral resources.

    The new hegemon in this post-apocalyptic world? Probably Brazil, but Chile, South and Australia would run it close. Or, if it’s just a Russia-NATO spat then China becomes sold global superpower.
    There's not that much - if any - easy to extract on-shore oil in Brazil left.

    In the case of Venezuela, the Orinoco belt oil sands contain massive amounts of hydrocarbons, but they are no way near as easy to exploit as traditional oil sources.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,229

    Latest Opinium poll has Starmer ahead of Sunak as best PM.

    Is HYUFD highlighting this?

    My point was solely about Sunak doing better than Boris and Truss in the bluewall. I did not deny Sunak still trailed Starmer in the country overall
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,345

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1609253278826610691

    Sir Keir Starmer channels Tony Blair with plans to launch a 1997 style pledge card.

    "I, Sir Keir, pledge to be more interesting in 2023 than I was in 2022".
  • TimSTimS Posts: 8,615
    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    There is more chance of mankind dying out in the next year - from AI, aliens, war, plague or possibly climate change - than in any previous year in civilised human history. And yes, I am including the Black Death

    Happy New Year!

    It depends whether the six year old child in some technically advanced "civilisation" finally gets bored and turns off this simulation we live in. She has tried to spice it up by turning on disaster mode but she is easily bored I suspect. Blink.

    Ahh - the sheer pleasure of panic!
    I would actually stand by my statement. Even when the Black Death was ravaging the world, at worst it killed 60% of society, and left enough people to quickly restore an agrarian medieval economy (it's not hard, just plant stuff and wait)

    So there was no sincere threat of us going extinct. Now, there is, from any one or a combination of those threats. The threat is vanishingly small, but it is there, and not quite as small as it was

    Probably the last time homo sapiens was this endangered was when we were still in Africa, 150,000 years ago, and nearly got wiped out by the weather

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/when-the-sea-saved-humanity-2012-12-07/
    Garbage.

    The most extreme nuclear war/biological war concepts ever created would kill maybe 90% of the human race. Survival would be biased to hunter gathers and low tech farmers.

    Rebuilding would be much easier. The steel in a few building structures might be more iron than the Roman Empire used. In its entirety…

    Flint knapping wouldn’t be a useful skill.
    On the other hand, humanity would not have access to ample, easy to exploit hydrocarbons. Oil would, essentially, not exist for humankind as they rebuilt. And much of the easiest to exploit coal has gone too.
    It would, especially if the main oil consumers in the North are wiped out. Brazil and Venezuela have oil and gas, the Aussies have coal, South America and Southern and central Africa have a large portion of the world’s base and precious mineral resources.

    The new hegemon in this post-apocalyptic world? Probably Brazil, but Chile, South and Australia would run it close. Or, if it’s just a Russia-NATO spat then China becomes sold global superpower.
    There's not that much - if any - easy to extract on-shore oil in Brazil left.

    In the case of Venezuela, the Orinoco belt oil sands contain massive amounts of hydrocarbons, but they are no way near as easy to exploit as traditional oil sources.
    The demand will be a fraction of what it is now though. In fact they could probably all quite quickly move to majority renewables anyway. Brazil already uses biofuel in vehicles.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,370

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1609253278826610691

    Sir Keir Starmer channels Tony Blair with plans to launch a 1997 style pledge card.

    Will we get something like Miliband’s mugs?

    Edit - I probably meant the Edstone

    Were the mugs Ed’s work too?
    They were indeed.

    image
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,772

    I've been having my first traditional English Christmas ever (staying with friends) and will celebrate New Year at a village party. With my urban and Continental background it's all new to me, and exciting. Never too late to learn new tricks.

    Happy New Year everyone!

    No offence, but how can you be in your 70s, have spent decades in the UK - to the extent of being an MP for a provincial British constituency for many years - yet you've never had "an English Christmas"?!

    I am not goading you, it is genuinely perplexing. I hope you enjoy it (Christmas Eve is better than New Year's Eve, to my mind)

    In that context, I am spending New Year's Eve.... doing my tax returns. Later I shall make a laksa. Bah humbug
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,772
    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    There is more chance of mankind dying out in the next year - from AI, aliens, war, plague or possibly climate change - than in any previous year in civilised human history. And yes, I am including the Black Death

    Happy New Year!

    It depends whether the six year old child in some technically advanced "civilisation" finally gets bored and turns off this simulation we live in. She has tried to spice it up by turning on disaster mode but she is easily bored I suspect. Blink.

    Ahh - the sheer pleasure of panic!
    I would actually stand by my statement. Even when the Black Death was ravaging the world, at worst it killed 60% of society, and left enough people to quickly restore an agrarian medieval economy (it's not hard, just plant stuff and wait)

    So there was no sincere threat of us going extinct. Now, there is, from any one or a combination of those threats. The threat is vanishingly small, but it is there, and not quite as small as it was

    Probably the last time homo sapiens was this endangered was when we were still in Africa, 150,000 years ago, and nearly got wiped out by the weather

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/when-the-sea-saved-humanity-2012-12-07/
    Garbage.

    The most extreme nuclear war/biological war concepts ever created would kill maybe 90% of the human race. Survival would be biased to hunter gathers and low tech farmers.

    Rebuilding would be much easier. The steel in a few building structures might be more iron than the Roman Empire used. In its entirety…

    Flint knapping wouldn’t be a useful skill.
    On the other hand, humanity would not have access to ample, easy to exploit hydrocarbons. Oil would, essentially, not exist for humankind as they rebuilt. And much of the easiest to exploit coal has gone too.
    It would, especially if the main oil consumers in the North are wiped out. Brazil and Venezuela have oil and gas, the Aussies have coal, South America and Southern and central Africa have a large portion of the world’s base and precious mineral resources.

    The new hegemon in this post-apocalyptic world? Probably Brazil, but Chile, South and Australia would run it close. Or, if it’s just a Russia-NATO spat then China becomes sold global superpower.
    There's not that much - if any - easy to extract on-shore oil in Brazil left.

    In the case of Venezuela, the Orinoco belt oil sands contain massive amounts of hydrocarbons, but they are no way near as easy to exploit as traditional oil sources.
    Little known fact: Guyana has recently discovered insane amounts of oil. Giving it the fastest growing GDP in the world: 19.1% in 2021

    If they play sensibly, Guyanans will all be quite rich by 2030. Tho nearby Trinidad shows what can go wrong. And, of course, Venezuela


  • The top four spots in “busiest airline route” as measured by available seat miles, and the only European airport to feature at all in the top 10 is…..LHR

    https://simpleflying.com/busiest-airline-routes-2022/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,217
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is it very wrong of me to hope the heavy rain will keep going so people don't let off fireworks all night?

    It would certainly be a shame if the fireworks over the Castle in Edinburgh tonight were turned into a damp squib. Really looking forward to it.
    If the fireworks people in Edinburgh haven't factored in heavy rain, the Department for Education will want a call about potential recruitment.
    I kinda get your point but the idea that the Department for Education are likely to be able to assist anyone with anything that involves forward planning is more based on hope than experience!
    I think the suggestion was the DfE would want to recruit the planners...
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,526

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1609253278826610691

    Sir Keir Starmer channels Tony Blair with plans to launch a 1997 style pledge card.

    Can he not recycle and write it on the back of the ed stone?
  • dixiedean said:

    Do we think Arsenal at 5-2 are value for the title?
    Seven points clear at New Year by the looks of it.

    yes by Christmas , every team has played each other once more or less so the league table is a fair reflection generally of ability
  • A pledge card is extremely sensible. A tight list of SMART goals offering things that people need. Of course the buggeration will be actually having to deliver those goals, but that is a challenge having won an election...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,217
    edited December 2022
    Pagan2 said:

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1609253278826610691

    Sir Keir Starmer channels Tony Blair with plans to launch a 1997 style pledge card.

    Can he not recycle and write it on the back of the ed stone?
    Oh dear oh dear. There was a disaster.

    Not least the immortal comment 'just because they're on this sculpture doesn't mean our pledges are carved in stone.'

    If not for the premiership of Liz Truss it would have been the worst presentational disaster since the MP for Wareham claimed the rumour he wished his workers to vote with their conscience was 'a dastardly lie...I wish and intend those persons to vote for me.'
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,217

    A pledge card is extremely sensible. A tight list of SMART goals offering things that people need. Of course the buggeration will be actually having to deliver those goals, but that is a challenge having won an election...

    Didn't make much difference for Michael Howard, of course.
  • Pagan2 said:

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1609253278826610691

    Sir Keir Starmer channels Tony Blair with plans to launch a 1997 style pledge card.

    Can he not recycle and write it on the back of the ed stone?
    does the Ed Stone still exist?
  • ydoethur said:

    A pledge card is extremely sensible. A tight list of SMART goals offering things that people need. Of course the buggeration will be actually having to deliver those goals, but that is a challenge having won an election...

    Didn't make much difference for Michael Howard, of course.
    He looks really sensible by today’s standards. How far we have fallen.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,229
    ydoethur said:

    A pledge card is extremely sensible. A tight list of SMART goals offering things that people need. Of course the buggeration will be actually having to deliver those goals, but that is a challenge having won an election...

    Didn't make much difference for Michael Howard, of course.
    Howard did gain 33 seats in 2005, which is more than any opposition leader so far this century apart from Cameron in 2010 and Corbyn in 2017
  • ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is it very wrong of me to hope the heavy rain will keep going so people don't let off fireworks all night?

    It would certainly be a shame if the fireworks over the Castle in Edinburgh tonight were turned into a damp squib. Really looking forward to it.
    If the fireworks people in Edinburgh haven't factored in heavy rain, the Department for Education will want a call about potential recruitment.
    I kinda get your point but the idea that the Department for Education are likely to be able to assist anyone with anything that involves forward planning is more based on hope than experience!
    I think the suggestion was the DfE would want to recruit the planners...
    What makes anyone think they are capable of that? They'd probably recruit the team from Edinburgh Working Fires.

    Didn't Gavin Williamson win an award for his fireplace selling prowess?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,217
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    A pledge card is extremely sensible. A tight list of SMART goals offering things that people need. Of course the buggeration will be actually having to deliver those goals, but that is a challenge having won an election...

    Didn't make much difference for Michael Howard, of course.
    Howard did gain 33 seats in 2005, which is more than any opposition leader so far this century apart from Cameron in 2010 and Corbyn in 2017
    So like I said it didn't make much difference then?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,680

    Pagan2 said:

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1609253278826610691

    Sir Keir Starmer channels Tony Blair with plans to launch a 1997 style pledge card.

    Can he not recycle and write it on the back of the ed stone?
    does the Ed Stone still exist?
    From wiki

    In May 2017, it was revealed that the EdStone had become a decoration in the Ivy Chelsea Garden restaurant on King's Road in West London. The restaurant's owners said that it had been bought two years earlier in a charity auction because it would be "fun" to have an "iconic image of the election" in the garden. Steve Vanhinsbergh, co-owner of stoneCIRCLE doubted this was the authentic stone, for practical reasons and the fact that he was "99% sure" it had been demolished.[21]
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