Mild weather in Northern Europe and cold weather in Ukraine helps Ukraine enormously as it means frozen ground for a winter mobile offensive while Russia's gas squeeze on Europe fails. The opposite, which this morning's 06z GFS shows (as a complete outlier in the ensembles) means more high gas demand for us and muddy quagmires in Southern and Eastern Ukraine.
"Everything that is wrong with the upper ranks of British policing — in particular a culture of failing ever upwards — is evident in the case of the former chief constable under investigation for alleged serious misconduct who has just been handed a new job upholding police standards. "
I have been saying this for years.
What the actual fuck does the Policing Minister do every day?
The current government (though I'm not automatically assuming the next one will be better) is part of the problem, I think. It's not that they're somehow just failing to notice.
It's not just the police as @Cyclefree has frequently pointed out.
Above a certain level, failure isn't just an option. It's a planned route to a better job.
The classic of this is Rotherham - where one of the senior managers in charge of child care, who suppressed what was happening for years, went on to a bigger and better job. In childcare. In Australia IIRC.
When, it was suggested that, perhaps a glowing reference wasn't appropriate from the UK Home Office, the fight back in officialdom was fierce. Unthinkable. A disgraceful suggestion.
So she was *recommended* to the Australians as a top notch child care expert....
It's the New Upper 10,000
Yep, it beggars belief but it really seems anathema that people are held accountable for terrible performance.
A lot of organisations are worried about being sued for giving a bad reference. Far easier to let the problem be someone else's.
There is no legal obligation to issue a glowing reference. Instead a statement of "X worked here in capacity Y between dates A and B".
This lady got a 2 pager about how wonderful she was.
That's how shit rolls in the new Upper 10,000
Absolutely incredible. Two ways of looking at this though from the perspective of those who wrote the reference:
1. She is one of our own, let's eulogise her because we would expect the same if we faced a similar issue
OR
2. They fundamentally believe she was, in essence, doing the right thing ie prioritising racial sensitivities over the welfare of children. In which case, she didn't really do anything wrong, she was only unfortunate in being caught out.
Take your pick as to which one you think (they are not mutually exclusive TBH).
"Everything that is wrong with the upper ranks of British policing — in particular a culture of failing ever upwards — is evident in the case of the former chief constable under investigation for alleged serious misconduct who has just been handed a new job upholding police standards. "
I have been saying this for years.
What the actual fuck does the Policing Minister do every day?
The current government (though I'm not automatically assuming the next one will be better) is part of the problem, I think. It's not that they're somehow just failing to notice.
It's not just the police as @Cyclefree has frequently pointed out.
Above a certain level, failure isn't just an option. It's a planned route to a better job.
The classic of this is Rotherham - where one of the senior managers in charge of child care, who suppressed what was happening for years, went on to a bigger and better job. In childcare. In Australia IIRC.
When, it was suggested that, perhaps a glowing reference wasn't appropriate from the UK Home Office, the fight back in officialdom was fierce. Unthinkable. A disgraceful suggestion.
So she was *recommended* to the Australians as a top notch child care expert....
It's the New Upper 10,000
See also John Smyth, child abuser at Winchester College who was moved to a cushy job in Africa where he continued to commit crimes against children.
Then there was Margaret Hodge, about whom let us simply say that she knew about the child abuse happening in care homes in Islington (there is ample evidence to show that), who then got appointed as government minister for children.
There’s no cherry picking or spinning this Mori poll. Whatever way it is sliced and diced it’s an awful one for Sunak and the Tories.
Lib Dem recovery not at expense of Labour is my main take out, because I presumed it should be opposite to that.
PB has observed news takes a week or more to move the polls, but I’m scratching my head trying to think of what it is that has reversed the Tory fortunes. Maybe its a messy picture wether Sunak got a Honeymoon bounce, but polling certainly are on the turn now.
Cold weather, those with smart meters are seeing how much it costs to stay warm.
"Everything that is wrong with the upper ranks of British policing — in particular a culture of failing ever upwards — is evident in the case of the former chief constable under investigation for alleged serious misconduct who has just been handed a new job upholding police standards. "
I have been saying this for years.
What the actual fuck does the Policing Minister do every day?
The current government (though I'm not automatically assuming the next one will be better) is part of the problem, I think. It's not that they're somehow just failing to notice.
It's not just the police as @Cyclefree has frequently pointed out.
Above a certain level, failure isn't just an option. It's a planned route to a better job.
The classic of this is Rotherham - where one of the senior managers in charge of child care, who suppressed what was happening for years, went on to a bigger and better job. In childcare. In Australia IIRC.
When, it was suggested that, perhaps a glowing reference wasn't appropriate from the UK Home Office, the fight back in officialdom was fierce. Unthinkable. A disgraceful suggestion.
So she was *recommended* to the Australians as a top notch child care expert....
It's the New Upper 10,000
Yep, it beggars belief but it really seems anathema that people are held accountable for terrible performance.
A lot of organisations are worried about being sued for giving a bad reference. Far easier to let the problem be someone else's.
There is no legal obligation to issue a glowing reference. Instead a statement of "X worked here in capacity Y between dates A and B".
This lady got a 2 pager about how wonderful she was.
That's how shit rolls in the new Upper 10,000
Absolutely incredible. Two ways of looking at this though from the perspective of those who wrote the reference:
1. She is one of our own, let's eulogise her because we would expect the same if we faced a similar issue
OR
2. They fundamentally believe she was, in essence, doing the right thing ie prioritising racial sensitivities over the welfare of children. In which case, she didn't really do anything wrong, she was only unfortunate in being caught out.
Take your pick as to which one you think (they are not mutually exclusive TBH).
Both. In the case of 2, more "She was following the Proper Policy, as established by her organisation." AKA She Was A Team Player.
Remember Shawn Shoesmith's defence - "I may have been bullying staff rather than run an efficient child care unit. Oh, and bullying the member of staff who kept upsetting things with concerns about a child being battered. But I was following Good Practise."
That also required an enormous amount of work to replan literally every lesson
Yes, buried in there, there it is.
And?
And, that increase in workload has biased you against him.
You could be right in your critiques of him. But nonetheless they are unsafe to rely on.
Driver, those are facts. And they are his responsibility.
It doesn't matter whether I'm biased in favour of him or not. Facts don't change. As Ronald Reagan failed to say, they are stubborn things.
Are you saying - for example - that I am wrong about the assessment criteria? Or about how long it takes the new GCSEs? Or about the pass marks? Merely because I'm angry that he messed up his timetable so I had no time off for two years trying to sort the mess out?
I'm thinking it's you that's too close to the subject. You appear emotionally invested in a failed system that you've been conned into thinking is somehow brilliant because you don't know much about it and you don't want to hear from people who do. Of course, you're not alone in this. Hyufd is much the same, as are many others e.g. ConHome.
Gibb is objectively, a failure who has done appalling damage to millions of children out of mindless arrogance. That's also a fact. If you don't like it, that's your problem.
Anyway, I have to go. Hope I have given you food for thought at least.
Well, we've been seeing children who have been schooled primarily since 2010 for a while, and we're starting to see those who've been schooled entirely since 2010. They don't look appallingly damaged to me.
What are your qualifications to make these assessments Driver compared to @ydoethur? Don't you think there is a chance he knows more about it than you?
I see the young adults when they leave school. I simply don't recognise them as "appallingly damaged", certainly in comparison with previous cohorts.
Not the question. I asked what your qualifications were compared to @ydoethur to make these assessments and asked whether there was a chance he knew more about it than you, unless you think that answer made you more qualified.
I answered the question, I can't be held responsible if you didn't like the answer.
No you didn't. Nor did you answer @ydoethur similar question. Again what are your qualifications to make that assessment and asked whether there was a chance that ydoethur maybe, as a professional in the field, knew more about it than you?
Yes, I did. I deal with young adults when they leave school, and have been doing so for the best part of 20 years.
Ah I now see the problem. You don't understand the English language. Try answering the question I asked.
Privet. I am back from 𝘽𝙀𝙃𝙄𝙉𝘿 𝙀𝙉𝙀𝙈𝙔 𝙇𝙄𝙉𝙀𝙎. Debrief follows.
Moscow seemed the same as ever. Decadent, crime-ridden, expensive, filthy, glamorous. It's the Eurasian maximum city. Mumbai in a blizzard. Less Western stuff and more Chinese tat for sale but it's hard to say how much different that was from the situation before sanctions.
Nobody I met thinks that Russia will lose the SMO for whatever ambiguous definition of 'lose' you care to adopt. It's just question of whether they stop at Kherson, Kiev or Lviv.
I watched Solovyov's tv show. He reckons the plan is a series of rolling mobilisations until they get to 3 million people in the armed forces. Which was reckoned by the coterie of beardie weirdos (it was like the LibDem conference) on the show to be sufficient to prevail against NATO in the existential conflict.
Casualities don't hurt VVP politically and you are kidding yourself if you think it does. On some level, they fucking like it.
There is a modest fraction of the population who are absolutely fanatical about it and are known as the Z-Publik. They have merch and VK/Telegram groups where they breathlessly follow the latest atrocities. The British equivalent would be those fucking arseholes who drive around with Comic Relief noses on R56 Minis 365 days/year.
Saw a fucking amazing road rage incident on the M7 motorway near Nizhny Novgorod involving an axe, a scaffold pole and a fire extinguisher. Some fat chybak tumbled out of a UK registered Audi A4 and started waving a Browning HP (SMO booty?) around which calmed everybody down.
Krasnov pretty much predicted all of this in 'Beyond the Thistle' in 1923. I might re-read it to see how it ends.
Endex.
Honest. I think we underestimate how much the average Russian is up for this (it's why Putin is in power in the first place) and Western media focuses on the liberal Mets and the 20% or so who vehemently oppose it.
It's not representative - anymore than it would be to film a people's march for a second referendum - but it's not a truth we are comfortable hearing.
@Dura_Ace’s vivid account tallies exactly with my experience meeting young rich Russians in Armenia in June
They hated the war, but ultimately, they said: Russia had to prevail, could not lose, and they would reluctantly take up arms for Putin if needs be
If that’s how the sophisticated Muscovites feel…
An American relative says that news from Russia (relatives there) reminds her of the stories her father told of the end of WWII in Germany (he was a Jew, hidden of false papers). Everyone was 126% Nazi, and all up for hanging traitors from lampposts etc, until 30 seconds after Admiral Donuts gave the good news on the radio.
Russia is a criminal culture, like the old Prussian culture in Germany. The only way to prevent them starting a war every 20 years is similar to the treatment of Germany. Complete humiliating loss in a way that everyone feels they have to distance themselves from Putinism. And perhaps losing a major chunk of their own country, like Cossackia or Konigsberg.
Privet. I am back from 𝘽𝙀𝙃𝙄𝙉𝘿 𝙀𝙉𝙀𝙈𝙔 𝙇𝙄𝙉𝙀𝙎. Debrief follows.
Moscow seemed the same as ever. Decadent, crime-ridden, expensive, filthy, glamorous. It's the Eurasian maximum city. Mumbai in a blizzard. Less Western stuff and more Chinese tat for sale but it's hard to say how much different that was from the situation before sanctions.
Nobody I met thinks that Russia will lose the SMO for whatever ambiguous definition of 'lose' you care to adopt. It's just question of whether they stop at Kherson, Kiev or Lviv.
I watched Solovyov's tv show. He reckons the plan is a series of rolling mobilisations until they get to 3 million people in the armed forces. Which was reckoned by the coterie of beardie weirdos (it was like the LibDem conference) on the show to be sufficient to prevail against NATO in the existential conflict.
Casualities don't hurt VVP politically and you are kidding yourself if you think it does. On some level, they fucking like it.
There is a modest fraction of the population who are absolutely fanatical about it and are known as the Z-Publik. They have merch and VK/Telegram groups where they breathlessly follow the latest atrocities. The British equivalent would be those fucking arseholes who drive around with Comic Relief noses on R56 Minis 365 days/year.
Saw a fucking amazing road rage incident on the M7 motorway near Nizhny Novgorod involving an axe, a scaffold pole and a fire extinguisher. Some fat chybak tumbled out of a UK registered Audi A4 and started waving a Browning HP (SMO booty?) around which calmed everybody down.
Krasnov pretty much predicted all of this in 'Beyond the Thistle' in 1923. I might re-read it to see how it ends.
Endex.
Honest. I think we underestimate how much the average Russian is up for this (it's why Putin is in power in the first place) and Western media focuses on the liberal Mets and the 20% or so who vehemently oppose it.
It's not representative - anymore than it would be to film a people's march for a second referendum - but it's not a truth we are comfortable hearing.
@Dura_Ace’s vivid account tallies exactly with my experience meeting young rich Russians in Armenia in June
They hated the war, but ultimately, they said: Russia had to prevail, could not lose, and they would reluctantly take up arms for Putin if needs be
If that’s how the sophisticated Muscovites feel…
An American relative says that news from Russia (relatives there) reminds her of the stories her father told of the end of WWII in Germany (he was a Jew, hidden of false papers). Everyone was 126% Nazi, and all up for hanging traitors from lampposts etc, until 30 seconds after Admiral Donuts gave the good news on the radio.
Russia is a criminal culture, like the old Prussian culture in Germany. The only way to prevent them starting a war every 20 years is similar to the treatment of Germany. Complete humiliating loss in a way that everyone feels they have to distance themselves from Putinism. And perhaps losing a major chunk of their own country, like Cossackia or Konigsberg.
That sounds like the treatment of Germany in 1919. That worked.
"Teesside and Sunderland make it to final three bids for Rolls-Royce nuclear reactor factory
Rolls-Royce has shortlisted two North East sites as potential locations for its first factory manufacturing parts for its fleet of nuclear power stations.
The company says the shortlist of possible sites includes Teesworks on Teesside, International Advanced Manufacturing Park (IAMP) in Sunderland and South Tyneside and Gateway in North Wales.
The Small Module Reactor (SMR) facility will be around the size of three football pitches and create more than 200 long-term jobs.
It will have the capacity to generate enough low-carbon energy to power one million homes."
The Trades unions are doing their best to remind people not to vote Labour
Just a gentle reminder that the current wave of industrial action is under a Conservative government. Trouble with the Trades Unions under the last Labour government? Pretty rare.
Trouble with the Trades Unions under the Wilson and Callaghan Labour governments in the late 1960s and 1970s when inflation was higher like now though very frequent.
Fair to say Heath's Tory government also had problems with the unions and strikes and inflation but it was Thatcher who sorted it out and with Major brought down inflation to Blair's benefit. Inflation is back again now though
Thatcher also had a lot of issues with strikes and was only able to muscle through due to a combination of her own perseverence, North Sea Oil revenues and, crucially, the Falklands.
Yep events are critical. If it wasn't for the Falklands Margaret Thatcher may not have won another term and one of the most important PMs of the 20th century may have been a PM that we would just forget.
The Falklands War began in April 1982, by March 1982 however the Conservatives were already back ahead on 35% with Gallup with the SDP on 33% and Labour on 30%.
You do understand the words 'may not have' don't you? It doesn't mean 'won't'. I'm simply pointing out that events outside of our control can have dramatic effects.
Margaret Thatcher is one of the most important PMs of the 20th century. If Argentina had not invaded the Falklands she MAY not (not WON'T) have been PM after the next election in which case she would have just been a footnote. Having had the luck of history she could still have been a footnote, but the fact that she wasn't was then down to her strength and ability (whether you like her or not).
As I said even before the Argentines had invaded the Falklands Thatcher's Tories were back in front in the polls
So as @Benpointer suggested and you have actually now confirmed you really don't understand the difference between 'MAY' and 'WON'T'.
Unbelievable. I never said she wouldn't have won. She may have, she may not have. How do you not get this? How can you create an argument over this?
She may have won anyway. She may not have. I mean that isn't hard is it?
In fairness, that isn't saying anything. In a counterfactual almost anything could have happened.
Oh for crying out loud some of you guys can create an argument out of nothing.
It was simple observation on history that events outside of our control can have an impact on our future. I think it is pretty well recorded that the Falklands war and the management of that war by Margaret Thatcher boosted her popularity which meant winning the next election became easier. Subsequently through her skills and personality she became a formidable and important leader in the 20th century.
If the Falklands war hadn't happened the above still may have happened, but it might not have and she may never have had a chance to make her mark on history.
I mean how is that at all controversial?
I do sometimes think you look for an argument for the sake of it.
No, he doesn't.
That's not an argument, that's just simple contradiction!
Good morning. Saw this chart (see left). I’m quite surprised, since Osborne et al tried to protect the NHS during austerity, but any extra funding did not go on capital expenditure.
This surely explains a lot, and can probably be extended across the public sector more broadly.
Privet. I am back from 𝘽𝙀𝙃𝙄𝙉𝘿 𝙀𝙉𝙀𝙈𝙔 𝙇𝙄𝙉𝙀𝙎. Debrief follows.
Moscow seemed the same as ever. Decadent, crime-ridden, expensive, filthy, glamorous. It's the Eurasian maximum city. Mumbai in a blizzard. Less Western stuff and more Chinese tat for sale but it's hard to say how much different that was from the situation before sanctions.
Nobody I met thinks that Russia will lose the SMO for whatever ambiguous definition of 'lose' you care to adopt. It's just question of whether they stop at Kherson, Kiev or Lviv.
I watched Solovyov's tv show. He reckons the plan is a series of rolling mobilisations until they get to 3 million people in the armed forces. Which was reckoned by the coterie of beardie weirdos (it was like the LibDem conference) on the show to be sufficient to prevail against NATO in the existential conflict.
Casualities don't hurt VVP politically and you are kidding yourself if you think it does. On some level, they fucking like it.
There is a modest fraction of the population who are absolutely fanatical about it and are known as the Z-Publik. They have merch and VK/Telegram groups where they breathlessly follow the latest atrocities. The British equivalent would be those fucking arseholes who drive around with Comic Relief noses on R56 Minis 365 days/year.
Saw a fucking amazing road rage incident on the M7 motorway near Nizhny Novgorod involving an axe, a scaffold pole and a fire extinguisher. Some fat chybak tumbled out of a UK registered Audi A4 and started waving a Browning HP (SMO booty?) around which calmed everybody down.
Krasnov pretty much predicted all of this in 'Beyond the Thistle' in 1923. I might re-read it to see how it ends.
Endex.
Honest. I think we underestimate how much the average Russian is up for this (it's why Putin is in power in the first place) and Western media focuses on the liberal Mets and the 20% or so who vehemently oppose it.
It's not representative - anymore than it would be to film a people's march for a second referendum - but it's not a truth we are comfortable hearing.
@Dura_Ace’s vivid account tallies exactly with my experience meeting young rich Russians in Armenia in June
They hated the war, but ultimately, they said: Russia had to prevail, could not lose, and they would reluctantly take up arms for Putin if needs be
If that’s how the sophisticated Muscovites feel…
An American relative says that news from Russia (relatives there) reminds her of the stories her father told of the end of WWII in Germany (he was a Jew, hidden of false papers). Everyone was 126% Nazi, and all up for hanging traitors from lampposts etc, until 30 seconds after Admiral Donuts gave the good news on the radio.
Russia is a criminal culture, like the old Prussian culture in Germany. The only way to prevent them starting a war every 20 years is similar to the treatment of Germany. Complete humiliating loss in a way that everyone feels they have to distance themselves from Putinism. And perhaps losing a major chunk of their own country, like Cossackia or Konigsberg.
Tricky to do to a country with nuclear weapons, some of which are probably still functional.
The Trades unions are doing their best to remind people not to vote Labour
Just a gentle reminder that the current wave of industrial action is under a Conservative government. Trouble with the Trades Unions under the last Labour government? Pretty rare.
Trouble with the Trades Unions under the Wilson and Callaghan Labour governments in the late 1960s and 1970s when inflation was higher like now though very frequent.
Fair to say Heath's Tory government also had problems with the unions and strikes and inflation but it was Thatcher who sorted it out and with Major brought down inflation to Blair's benefit. Inflation is back again now though
Thatcher also had a lot of issues with strikes and was only able to muscle through due to a combination of her own perseverence, North Sea Oil revenues and, crucially, the Falklands.
Yep events are critical. If it wasn't for the Falklands Margaret Thatcher may not have won another term and one of the most important PMs of the 20th century may have been a PM that we would just forget.
The Falklands War began in April 1982, by March 1982 however the Conservatives were already back ahead on 35% with Gallup with the SDP on 33% and Labour on 30%.
You do understand the words 'may not have' don't you? It doesn't mean 'won't'. I'm simply pointing out that events outside of our control can have dramatic effects.
Margaret Thatcher is one of the most important PMs of the 20th century. If Argentina had not invaded the Falklands she MAY not (not WON'T) have been PM after the next election in which case she would have just been a footnote. Having had the luck of history she could still have been a footnote, but the fact that she wasn't was then down to her strength and ability (whether you like her or not).
As I said even before the Argentines had invaded the Falklands Thatcher's Tories were back in front in the polls
So as @Benpointer suggested and you have actually now confirmed you really don't understand the difference between 'MAY' and 'WON'T'.
Unbelievable. I never said she wouldn't have won. She may have, she may not have. How do you not get this? How can you create an argument over this?
She may have won anyway. She may not have. I mean that isn't hard is it?
In fairness, that isn't saying anything. In a counterfactual almost anything could have happened.
Oh for crying out loud some of you guys can create an argument out of nothing.
It was simple observation on history that events outside of our control can have an impact on our future. I think it is pretty well recorded that the Falklands war and the management of that war by Margaret Thatcher boosted her popularity which meant winning the next election became easier. Subsequently through her skills and personality she became a formidable and important leader in the 20th century.
If the Falklands war hadn't happened the above still may have happened, but it might not have and she may never have had a chance to make her mark on history.
I mean how is that at all controversial?
I do sometimes think you look for an argument for the sake of it.
No, he doesn't.
That's not an argument, that's just simple contradiction!
I think you will find that was a joke. I hope so cos I liked it.
I have made some progress in therapy over the last week. I have finished work for the year and so that stress has gone away for now. Things are looking just a tiny bit brighter.
I have made some progress in therapy over the last week. I have finished work for the year and so that stress has gone away for now. Things are looking just a tiny bit brighter.
Qatar has threatened to cut off energy supplies to Belgium and Europe in a row over a corruption scandal that has shaken the European Union.
Eva Kaili, the disgraced Greek MEP and a vice-president of the European parliament, is in custody after police seized cash totalling more than €900,000 from suitcases owned by her and her Italian husband Francesco Giorgi, an aide at the EU assembly.
At a court hearing this Thursday, Kaili 44, will blame Giorgi, 35, the father of their daughter, two, for dragging her into the scandal without her knowledge, her lawyer told The Times. “She was used by her partner and father of her child, without her knowledge,” Michalis Dimitrakopoulos, her lawyer said. “She has a clear conscience and she will fight for her innocence.”
Good morning. Saw this chart (see left). I’m quite surprised, since Osborne et al tried to protect the NHS during austerity, but any extra funding did not go on capital expenditure.
This surely explains a lot, and can probably be extended across the public sector more broadly.
Very interesting. I'd like to see which of the comparator nations each line is - on some of the measures one or two nations are skewing the average.
However your broad point is clearly right - extra money has gone mainly on wages at the expense of kit.
One other thing though. MRI and CT can run 24/7. You can increase use if you get more staff to run the kit overnight, which would be, in my eyes the best use of the kit. But that may not show up on these graphs.
I have made some progress in therapy over the last week. I have finished work for the year and so that stress has gone away for now. Things are looking just a tiny bit brighter.
Hope you can have a nice relaxing Christmas. All the best. Miss your contributions, even if I don't always agree with you.
On topic, its too early to call the next election. On one hand the deck is vastly stacked against the Tories and increasingly so. There is no way out of the economic Trussterfuck, their dogwhistle culture wars against drowning migrants and starving nurses has repulsed even their own loyal supporters, and the Nigel is making a comeback for the voters who are repulsed that the Tories haven't drowned enough migrants.
On the other hand, Keith is interesting as linoleum, the lack of a huge swingback in Scotland makes it hard and the boundary review makes it worse. And there is no way out of the economic Trusssterfuck - blaming the Tories will carry them so far, but they need to offer hope to really win big and thats hard to find.
So too many variables to call it this far out. I think @Heathener is right that the political mood is about as hardened against the Tories and the corrupt incompetence they stand for. But that isn't the same as "therefore Labour win by a Blair". I think the party winning the biggest vote share will be the apathy party. Several million non-voters were persuaded to vote for the first time ever in 2016. And the second time ever in 2019. Most will revert to not voting. Which makes all kinds of seats much harder to read...
Another reframing of the question.
One of Dave's problems in 2010 was the size of the Lib Dem block. They took seats away from Labour but didn't help the Conservatives get nearer a majority.
2024 could well be even harder for Starmer- a moderate Lib Dem revival and bam there are 100 seats out of play for the big two. Getting 326/550 is a tall order. It would mean forcing the Conservatives below about 225 seats, maybe less if the Lib Dems advance a lot. That's not impossible (I think the economy is going to minimise the amount of swingback we get this time, and a lot of the 2019 win was wide but shallow), but it's not easy.
Historically a strong Lib Dem showing has been mainly at the expense of the conservatives but it’s difficult to untangle cause and effect. The worse the Tories do the higher the LD seat count. Much stronger correlation than with LD vote share.
Whereas a strong SNP performance is almost entirely to the detriment of Labour.
Au contraire.
On current polling (and the new boundaries), it’s looking like the SNP will gain all 6 Scottish Tory seats (or gain 5 at the worst). That is a boon for Labour.
Ironically, it's possible that the SNP winning all 6 Scottish Tory seats *could* be to the detriment of the SNP. If it were the difference between a Tory plurality and a Labour plurality in a hung parliament, the former would give them a much stronger degree of control over the balance of power.
Strategically, the best results for the SNP would be: 1) the Tories having 325+ seats, excluding Scotland; and 2) Labour having 325+ seats, excluding Scotland.
Little sign of much of a Sunak honeymoon in last @IpsosUK poll of 2022 for @standardnews
. His personal satisfaction ratings are slipping, Labour still maintain a substantial lead in voting intentions, and after Sept the Cons are no longer most trusted to grow the economy. 1/7
Dissatisfaction with Sunak up 12pts to 49% in his 2nd month, while unhappiness with Govt as a whole also historically poor at 8 in 10. Rare for a PM to hit negative scores so quickly in their tenure in Ipsos records (tho' both Johnson and Truss did, with varying results...). 2/7
Qatar has threatened to cut off energy supplies to Belgium and Europe in a row over a corruption scandal that has shaken the European Union.
Eva Kaili, the disgraced Greek MEP and a vice-president of the European parliament, is in custody after police seized cash totalling more than €900,000 from suitcases owned by her and her Italian husband Francesco Giorgi, an aide at the EU assembly.
At a court hearing this Thursday, Kaili 44, will blame Giorgi, 35, the father of their daughter, two, for dragging her into the scandal without her knowledge, her lawyer told The Times. “She was used by her partner and father of her child, without her knowledge,” Michalis Dimitrakopoulos, her lawyer said. “She has a clear conscience and she will fight for her innocence.”
His wording is the key here. What position is he stepping down from, apart from "head" of Twitter? What is that post?
Yup, and whatever the job title, he'll obviously appoint a toady who will have to do what he says so it's not clear what would be different.
In related news, they've ended the policy they used to justify blocking mastodon links, but they're still blocking mastodon links. They've just gone back to using fake malware warnings.
Qatar has threatened to cut off energy supplies to Belgium and Europe in a row over a corruption scandal that has shaken the European Union.
Eva Kaili, the disgraced Greek MEP and a vice-president of the European parliament, is in custody after police seized cash totalling more than €900,000 from suitcases owned by her and her Italian husband Francesco Giorgi, an aide at the EU assembly.
At a court hearing this Thursday, Kaili 44, will blame Giorgi, 35, the father of their daughter, two, for dragging her into the scandal without her knowledge, her lawyer told The Times. “She was used by her partner and father of her child, without her knowledge,” Michalis Dimitrakopoulos, her lawyer said. “She has a clear conscience and she will fight for her innocence.”
Bottom line is there is a hard core of Tory support that is moping about Boris and upset Truss fluffed it so spectacularly, ruling out a return to her magical thinking, so they are more than happy to see Rishi crash and burn.
Add to that the pressures of Covid/Ukraine and the dragging weight of 12 years of being in government, along with Rishi's own timidity and lightweightedness, and they are at best becalmed, bereft of any enthusiasm or energy.
Qatar has threatened to cut off energy supplies to Belgium and Europe in a row over a corruption scandal that has shaken the European Union.
Eva Kaili, the disgraced Greek MEP and a vice-president of the European parliament, is in custody after police seized cash totalling more than €900,000 from suitcases owned by her and her Italian husband Francesco Giorgi, an aide at the EU assembly.
At a court hearing this Thursday, Kaili 44, will blame Giorgi, 35, the father of their daughter, two, for dragging her into the scandal without her knowledge, her lawyer told The Times. “She was used by her partner and father of her child, without her knowledge,” Michalis Dimitrakopoulos, her lawyer said. “She has a clear conscience and she will fight for her innocence.”
I have a lurgy. Chills, shivers, aches, vomiting, the squits
I’ll spare you more deets
Norovirus?
Did you read the Liz Truss book?
I’ve bought the Truss book and the Prince Harry book on Audible.
My listening pleasures over the festive period.
You’re a sick puppy.
I've got a couple of free Audible credits to use and I'm suffering from narcolepsy so this seems the best solution.
Not sure about those two but some of the unabridged Audible offerings are quite brilliant. Books that might be tough going to plough through* come to life through being excellently read.
Milkman by Anna Burns and Steinbeck's the Grapes of Wrath are two that I have recently enjoyed.
There's something rather decadent about listening to a book being read to you well.
PS Mr Dancer, thanks for the tip, I may try The Prince next.
Labour extends its lead to 26-points in new Ipsos poll.
Lab: 49% (+1) Con: 23% (-6) LD: 13% (+6)
(Change since November)
61% of voters say the Conservatives don't deserve to be re-elected, compared to just 19% who think they do.
Over to MoonRabbit to explain how this means the Tories are on course to win the next GE.
Sunak's ratings falling as well.
Not as shit as Truss might be Sunak's epitath.
And we'll hear about how Boris would have easily won the next election until the end of time. Never mind that you have to cock up in extraordinary fashion to cause your own MPs to mutiny after 3 years.
There’s no cherry picking or spinning this Mori poll. Whatever way it is sliced and diced it’s an awful one for Sunak and the Tories.
Lib Dem recovery not at expense of Labour is my main take out, because I presumed it should be opposite to that.
PB has observed news takes a week or more to move the polls, but I’m scratching my head trying to think of what it is that has reversed the Tory fortunes. Maybe its a messy picture wether Sunak got a Honeymoon bounce, but polling certainly are on the turn now.
Good for you for acknowledging it.
You have to concede, there was 10 days of solid poll advances for the Tory’s mostly after I pointed out it was happening. Again, there was no obvious reason for the bounce, except quite a delayed reaction to the budget or a belated honeymoon for the new PM. Looking at the bigger picture, there’s signals the voters have stopped listening to Sunak and his government, a broad cross section of minds have been made up. This post is very much on topic, but disagreeing with Mikes header - there’s a lot in this poll, the slide already in Tory and Sunak ratings, behind on growth, Labours strong rating on being ready for government, to suggest voters minds are firming up.
Privet. I am back from 𝘽𝙀𝙃𝙄𝙉𝘿 𝙀𝙉𝙀𝙈𝙔 𝙇𝙄𝙉𝙀𝙎. Debrief follows.
Moscow seemed the same as ever. Decadent, crime-ridden, expensive, filthy, glamorous. It's the Eurasian maximum city. Mumbai in a blizzard. Less Western stuff and more Chinese tat for sale but it's hard to say how much different that was from the situation before sanctions.
Nobody I met thinks that Russia will lose the SMO for whatever ambiguous definition of 'lose' you care to adopt. It's just question of whether they stop at Kherson, Kiev or Lviv.
I watched Solovyov's tv show. He reckons the plan is a series of rolling mobilisations until they get to 3 million people in the armed forces. Which was reckoned by the coterie of beardie weirdos (it was like the LibDem conference) on the show to be sufficient to prevail against NATO in the existential conflict.
Casualities don't hurt VVP politically and you are kidding yourself if you think it does. On some level, they fucking like it.
There is a modest fraction of the population who are absolutely fanatical about it and are known as the Z-Publik. They have merch and VK/Telegram groups where they breathlessly follow the latest atrocities. The British equivalent would be those fucking arseholes who drive around with Comic Relief noses on R56 Minis 365 days/year.
Saw a fucking amazing road rage incident on the M7 motorway near Nizhny Novgorod involving an axe, a scaffold pole and a fire extinguisher. Some fat chybak tumbled out of a UK registered Audi A4 and started waving a Browning HP (SMO booty?) around which calmed everybody down.
Krasnov pretty much predicted all of this in 'Beyond the Thistle' in 1923. I might re-read it to see how it ends.
Endex.
Honest. I think we underestimate how much the average Russian is up for this (it's why Putin is in power in the first place) and Western media focuses on the liberal Mets and the 20% or so who vehemently oppose it.
It's not representative - anymore than it would be to film a people's march for a second referendum - but it's not a truth we are comfortable hearing.
@Dura_Ace’s vivid account tallies exactly with my experience meeting young rich Russians in Armenia in June
They hated the war, but ultimately, they said: Russia had to prevail, could not lose, and they would reluctantly take up arms for Putin if needs be
If that’s how the sophisticated Muscovites feel…
An American relative says that news from Russia (relatives there) reminds her of the stories her father told of the end of WWII in Germany (he was a Jew, hidden of false papers). Everyone was 126% Nazi, and all up for hanging traitors from lampposts etc, until 30 seconds after Admiral Donuts gave the good news on the radio.
I have a lurgy. Chills, shivers, aches, vomiting, the squits
I’ll spare you more deets
Norovirus?
Did you read the Liz Truss book?
I’ve bought the Truss book and the Prince Harry book on Audible.
My listening pleasures over the festive period.
You’re a sick puppy.
I've got a couple of free Audible credits to use and I'm suffering from narcolepsy so this seems the best solution.
Not sure about those two but some of the unabridged Audible offerings are quite brilliant. Books that might be tough going to plough through* come to life through being excellently read.
Milkman by Anna Burns and Steinbeck's the Grapes of Wrath are two that I have recently enjoyed.
There's something rather decadent about listening to a book being read to you well.
PS Mr Dancer, thanks for the tip, I may try The Prince next.
(*Quite pleased with my three -oughs there!)
I think audiobooks are great, and its good value too if you are into massively long fantasy and sci-fi, as I am.
There’s no cherry picking or spinning this Mori poll. Whatever way it is sliced and diced it’s an awful one for Sunak and the Tories.
Lib Dem recovery not at expense of Labour is my main take out, because I presumed it should be opposite to that.
PB has observed news takes a week or more to move the polls, but I’m scratching my head trying to think of what it is that has reversed the Tory fortunes. Maybe its a messy picture wether Sunak got a Honeymoon bounce, but polling certainly are on the turn now.
Good for you for acknowledging it.
You have to concede, there was 10 days of solid poll advances for the Tory’s mostly after I pointed out it was happening. Again, there was no obvious reason for the bounce, except quite a delayed reaction to the budget or a belated honeymoon for the new PM. Looking at the bigger picture, there’s signals the voters have stopped listening to Sunak and his government, a broad cross section of minds have been made up. This post is very much on topic, but disagreeing with Mikes header - there’s a lot in this poll, the slide already in Tory and Sunak ratings, behind on growth, Labours strong rating on being ready for government, to suggest voters minds are firming up.
There was 10 days of noise at best, I am astonished you thought it was showing anything tbh
I have a lurgy. Chills, shivers, aches, vomiting, the squits
I’ll spare you more deets
Norovirus?
Did you read the Liz Truss book?
I’ve bought the Truss book and the Prince Harry book on Audible.
My listening pleasures over the festive period.
You’re a sick puppy.
I've got a couple of free Audible credits to use and I'm suffering from narcolepsy so this seems the best solution.
Not sure about those two but some of the unabridged Audible offerings are quite brilliant. Books that might be tough going to plough through* come to life through being excellently read.
Milkman by Anna Burns and Steinbeck's the Grapes of Wrath are two that I have recently enjoyed.
There's something rather decadent about listening to a book being read to you well.
PS Mr Dancer, thanks for the tip, I may try The Prince next.
(*Quite pleased with my three -oughs there!)
I've had free Audible membership via Amazon and then o2 for the last few years, finally using up my credits.
Much as I am really pleased with seeing the LDs up 6% I can see no reason for it. Unless I have missed something they have had no publicity in the last week or so. Seems odd, but pleasing.
Privet. I am back from 𝘽𝙀𝙃𝙄𝙉𝘿 𝙀𝙉𝙀𝙈𝙔 𝙇𝙄𝙉𝙀𝙎. Debrief follows.
Moscow seemed the same as ever. Decadent, crime-ridden, expensive, filthy, glamorous. It's the Eurasian maximum city. Mumbai in a blizzard. Less Western stuff and more Chinese tat for sale but it's hard to say how much different that was from the situation before sanctions.
Nobody I met thinks that Russia will lose the SMO for whatever ambiguous definition of 'lose' you care to adopt. It's just question of whether they stop at Kherson, Kiev or Lviv.
I watched Solovyov's tv show. He reckons the plan is a series of rolling mobilisations until they get to 3 million people in the armed forces. Which was reckoned by the coterie of beardie weirdos (it was like the LibDem conference) on the show to be sufficient to prevail against NATO in the existential conflict.
Casualities don't hurt VVP politically and you are kidding yourself if you think it does. On some level, they fucking like it.
There is a modest fraction of the population who are absolutely fanatical about it and are known as the Z-Publik. They have merch and VK/Telegram groups where they breathlessly follow the latest atrocities. The British equivalent would be those fucking arseholes who drive around with Comic Relief noses on R56 Minis 365 days/year.
Saw a fucking amazing road rage incident on the M7 motorway near Nizhny Novgorod involving an axe, a scaffold pole and a fire extinguisher. Some fat chybak tumbled out of a UK registered Audi A4 and started waving a Browning HP (SMO booty?) around which calmed everybody down.
Krasnov pretty much predicted all of this in 'Beyond the Thistle' in 1923. I might re-read it to see how it ends.
Endex.
Honest. I think we underestimate how much the average Russian is up for this (it's why Putin is in power in the first place) and Western media focuses on the liberal Mets and the 20% or so who vehemently oppose it.
It's not representative - anymore than it would be to film a people's march for a second referendum - but it's not a truth we are comfortable hearing.
@Dura_Ace’s vivid account tallies exactly with my experience meeting young rich Russians in Armenia in June
They hated the war, but ultimately, they said: Russia had to prevail, could not lose, and they would reluctantly take up arms for Putin if needs be
If that’s how the sophisticated Muscovites feel…
An American relative says that news from Russia (relatives there) reminds her of the stories her father told of the end of WWII in Germany (he was a Jew, hidden of false papers). Everyone was 126% Nazi, and all up for hanging traitors from lampposts etc, until 30 seconds after Admiral Donuts gave the good news on the radio.
Gotta love autocorrect: Admiral Donuts indeed ;-)
I thought it must be his WWII nickname. Possibly it was ?
The Trades unions are doing their best to remind people not to vote Labour
Just a gentle reminder that the current wave of industrial action is under a Conservative government. Trouble with the Trades Unions under the last Labour government? Pretty rare.
Trouble with the Trades Unions under the Wilson and Callaghan Labour governments in the late 1960s and 1970s when inflation was higher like now though very frequent.
Fair to say Heath's Tory government also had problems with the unions and strikes and inflation but it was Thatcher who sorted it out and with Major brought down inflation to Blair's benefit. Inflation is back again now though
Thatcher also had a lot of issues with strikes and was only able to muscle through due to a combination of her own perseverence, North Sea Oil revenues and, crucially, the Falklands.
Yep events are critical. If it wasn't for the Falklands Margaret Thatcher may not have won another term and one of the most important PMs of the 20th century may have been a PM that we would just forget.
The Falklands War began in April 1982, by March 1982 however the Conservatives were already back ahead on 35% with Gallup with the SDP on 33% and Labour on 30%.
You do understand the words 'may not have' don't you? It doesn't mean 'won't'. I'm simply pointing out that events outside of our control can have dramatic effects.
Margaret Thatcher is one of the most important PMs of the 20th century. If Argentina had not invaded the Falklands she MAY not (not WON'T) have been PM after the next election in which case she would have just been a footnote. Having had the luck of history she could still have been a footnote, but the fact that she wasn't was then down to her strength and ability (whether you like her or not).
As I said even before the Argentines had invaded the Falklands Thatcher's Tories were back in front in the polls
So as @Benpointer suggested and you have actually now confirmed you really don't understand the difference between 'MAY' and 'WON'T'.
Unbelievable. I never said she wouldn't have won. She may have, she may not have. How do you not get this? How can you create an argument over this?
She may have won anyway. She may not have. I mean that isn't hard is it?
In fairness, that isn't saying anything. In a counterfactual almost anything could have happened.
Oh for crying out loud some of you guys can create an argument out of nothing.
It was simple observation on history that events outside of our control can have an impact on our future. I think it is pretty well recorded that the Falklands war and the management of that war by Margaret Thatcher boosted her popularity which meant winning the next election became easier. Subsequently through her skills and personality she became a formidable and important leader in the 20th century.
If the Falklands war hadn't happened the above still may have happened, but it might not have and she may never have had a chance to make her mark on history.
I mean how is that at all controversial?
I do sometimes think you look for an argument for the sake of it.
No, he doesn't.
That's not an argument, that's just simple contradiction!
Labour extends its lead to 26-points in new Ipsos poll.
Lab: 49% (+1) Con: 23% (-6) LD: 13% (+6)
(Change since November)
61% of voters say the Conservatives don't deserve to be re-elected, compared to just 19% who think they do.
Over to MoonRabbit to explain how this means the Tories are on course to win the next GE.
Sunak's ratings falling as well.
Not as shit as Truss might be Sunak's epitath.
And we'll hear about how Boris would have easily won the next election until the end of time. Never mind that you have to cock up in extraordinary fashion to cause your own MPs to mutiny after 3 years.
Mostly from Boris, I suspect.
But when a Conservative PM is behind on "is patriotic", the Conservative party is in trouble.
Privet. I am back from 𝘽𝙀𝙃𝙄𝙉𝘿 𝙀𝙉𝙀𝙈𝙔 𝙇𝙄𝙉𝙀𝙎. Debrief follows.
Moscow seemed the same as ever. Decadent, crime-ridden, expensive, filthy, glamorous. It's the Eurasian maximum city. Mumbai in a blizzard. Less Western stuff and more Chinese tat for sale but it's hard to say how much different that was from the situation before sanctions.
Nobody I met thinks that Russia will lose the SMO for whatever ambiguous definition of 'lose' you care to adopt. It's just question of whether they stop at Kherson, Kiev or Lviv.
I watched Solovyov's tv show. He reckons the plan is a series of rolling mobilisations until they get to 3 million people in the armed forces. Which was reckoned by the coterie of beardie weirdos (it was like the LibDem conference) on the show to be sufficient to prevail against NATO in the existential conflict.
Casualities don't hurt VVP politically and you are kidding yourself if you think it does. On some level, they fucking like it.
There is a modest fraction of the population who are absolutely fanatical about it and are known as the Z-Publik. They have merch and VK/Telegram groups where they breathlessly follow the latest atrocities. The British equivalent would be those fucking arseholes who drive around with Comic Relief noses on R56 Minis 365 days/year.
Saw a fucking amazing road rage incident on the M7 motorway near Nizhny Novgorod involving an axe, a scaffold pole and a fire extinguisher. Some fat chybak tumbled out of a UK registered Audi A4 and started waving a Browning HP (SMO booty?) around which calmed everybody down.
Krasnov pretty much predicted all of this in 'Beyond the Thistle' in 1923. I might re-read it to see how it ends.
Endex.
Honest. I think we underestimate how much the average Russian is up for this (it's why Putin is in power in the first place) and Western media focuses on the liberal Mets and the 20% or so who vehemently oppose it.
It's not representative - anymore than it would be to film a people's march for a second referendum - but it's not a truth we are comfortable hearing.
@Dura_Ace’s vivid account tallies exactly with my experience meeting young rich Russians in Armenia in June
They hated the war, but ultimately, they said: Russia had to prevail, could not lose, and they would reluctantly take up arms for Putin if needs be
If that’s how the sophisticated Muscovites feel…
An American relative says that news from Russia (relatives there) reminds her of the stories her father told of the end of WWII in Germany (he was a Jew, hidden of false papers). Everyone was 126% Nazi, and all up for hanging traitors from lampposts etc, until 30 seconds after Admiral Donuts gave the good news on the radio.
Gotta love autocorrect: Admiral Donuts indeed ;-)
I thought it must be his WWII nickname. Possibly it was ?
Privet. I am back from 𝘽𝙀𝙃𝙄𝙉𝘿 𝙀𝙉𝙀𝙈𝙔 𝙇𝙄𝙉𝙀𝙎. Debrief follows.
Moscow seemed the same as ever. Decadent, crime-ridden, expensive, filthy, glamorous. It's the Eurasian maximum city. Mumbai in a blizzard. Less Western stuff and more Chinese tat for sale but it's hard to say how much different that was from the situation before sanctions.
Nobody I met thinks that Russia will lose the SMO for whatever ambiguous definition of 'lose' you care to adopt. It's just question of whether they stop at Kherson, Kiev or Lviv.
I watched Solovyov's tv show. He reckons the plan is a series of rolling mobilisations until they get to 3 million people in the armed forces. Which was reckoned by the coterie of beardie weirdos (it was like the LibDem conference) on the show to be sufficient to prevail against NATO in the existential conflict.
Casualities don't hurt VVP politically and you are kidding yourself if you think it does. On some level, they fucking like it.
There is a modest fraction of the population who are absolutely fanatical about it and are known as the Z-Publik. They have merch and VK/Telegram groups where they breathlessly follow the latest atrocities. The British equivalent would be those fucking arseholes who drive around with Comic Relief noses on R56 Minis 365 days/year.
Saw a fucking amazing road rage incident on the M7 motorway near Nizhny Novgorod involving an axe, a scaffold pole and a fire extinguisher. Some fat chybak tumbled out of a UK registered Audi A4 and started waving a Browning HP (SMO booty?) around which calmed everybody down.
Krasnov pretty much predicted all of this in 'Beyond the Thistle' in 1923. I might re-read it to see how it ends.
Endex.
Honest. I think we underestimate how much the average Russian is up for this (it's why Putin is in power in the first place) and Western media focuses on the liberal Mets and the 20% or so who vehemently oppose it.
It's not representative - anymore than it would be to film a people's march for a second referendum - but it's not a truth we are comfortable hearing.
@Dura_Ace’s vivid account tallies exactly with my experience meeting young rich Russians in Armenia in June
They hated the war, but ultimately, they said: Russia had to prevail, could not lose, and they would reluctantly take up arms for Putin if needs be
If that’s how the sophisticated Muscovites feel…
An American relative says that news from Russia (relatives there) reminds her of the stories her father told of the end of WWII in Germany (he was a Jew, hidden of false papers). Everyone was 126% Nazi, and all up for hanging traitors from lampposts etc, until 30 seconds after Admiral Donuts gave the good news on the radio.
Gotta love autocorrect: Admiral Donuts indeed ;-)
I thought it must be his WWII nickname. Possibly it was ?
Bottom line is there is a hard core of Tory support that is moping about Boris and upset Truss fluffed it so spectacularly, ruling out a return to her magical thinking, so they are more than happy to see Rishi crash and burn.
Add to that the pressures of Covid/Ukraine and the dragging weight of 12 years of being in government, along with Rishi's own timidity and lightweightedness, and they are at best becalmed, bereft of any enthusiasm or energy.
Yes. Which is absolutely the optimum condition for the Tories. Becalmed and devoid of energy. We've seen what happens when they get their peckers up. It's not pretty.
Much as I am really pleased with seeing the LDs up 6% I can see no reason for it. Unless I have missed something they have had no publicity in the last week or so. Seems odd, but pleasing.
MOE. 7% last month and 13% now would both be consistent with the LDs hovering around 10%.
Privet. I am back from 𝘽𝙀𝙃𝙄𝙉𝘿 𝙀𝙉𝙀𝙈𝙔 𝙇𝙄𝙉𝙀𝙎. Debrief follows.
Moscow seemed the same as ever. Decadent, crime-ridden, expensive, filthy, glamorous. It's the Eurasian maximum city. Mumbai in a blizzard. Less Western stuff and more Chinese tat for sale but it's hard to say how much different that was from the situation before sanctions.
Nobody I met thinks that Russia will lose the SMO for whatever ambiguous definition of 'lose' you care to adopt. It's just question of whether they stop at Kherson, Kiev or Lviv.
I watched Solovyov's tv show. He reckons the plan is a series of rolling mobilisations until they get to 3 million people in the armed forces. Which was reckoned by the coterie of beardie weirdos (it was like the LibDem conference) on the show to be sufficient to prevail against NATO in the existential conflict.
Casualities don't hurt VVP politically and you are kidding yourself if you think it does. On some level, they fucking like it.
There is a modest fraction of the population who are absolutely fanatical about it and are known as the Z-Publik. They have merch and VK/Telegram groups where they breathlessly follow the latest atrocities. The British equivalent would be those fucking arseholes who drive around with Comic Relief noses on R56 Minis 365 days/year.
Saw a fucking amazing road rage incident on the M7 motorway near Nizhny Novgorod involving an axe, a scaffold pole and a fire extinguisher. Some fat chybak tumbled out of a UK registered Audi A4 and started waving a Browning HP (SMO booty?) around which calmed everybody down.
Krasnov pretty much predicted all of this in 'Beyond the Thistle' in 1923. I might re-read it to see how it ends.
Endex.
Honest. I think we underestimate how much the average Russian is up for this (it's why Putin is in power in the first place) and Western media focuses on the liberal Mets and the 20% or so who vehemently oppose it.
It's not representative - anymore than it would be to film a people's march for a second referendum - but it's not a truth we are comfortable hearing.
@Dura_Ace’s vivid account tallies exactly with my experience meeting young rich Russians in Armenia in June
They hated the war, but ultimately, they said: Russia had to prevail, could not lose, and they would reluctantly take up arms for Putin if needs be
If that’s how the sophisticated Muscovites feel…
An American relative says that news from Russia (relatives there) reminds her of the stories her father told of the end of WWII in Germany (he was a Jew, hidden of false papers). Everyone was 126% Nazi, and all up for hanging traitors from lampposts etc, until 30 seconds after Admiral Donuts gave the good news on the radio.
Gotta love autocorrect: Admiral Donuts indeed ;-)
I thought it must be his WWII nickname. Possibly it was ?
There’s no cherry picking or spinning this Mori poll. Whatever way it is sliced and diced it’s an awful one for Sunak and the Tories.
Lib Dem recovery not at expense of Labour is my main take out, because I presumed it should be opposite to that.
PB has observed news takes a week or more to move the polls, but I’m scratching my head trying to think of what it is that has reversed the Tory fortunes. Maybe its a messy picture wether Sunak got a Honeymoon bounce, but polling certainly are on the turn now.
Good for you for acknowledging it.
You have to concede, there was 10 days of solid poll advances for the Tory’s mostly after I pointed out it was happening. Again, there was no obvious reason for the bounce, except quite a delayed reaction to the budget or a belated honeymoon for the new PM. Looking at the bigger picture, there’s signals the voters have stopped listening to Sunak and his government, a broad cross section of minds have been made up. This post is very much on topic, but disagreeing with Mikes header - there’s a lot in this poll, the slide already in Tory and Sunak ratings, behind on growth, Labours strong rating on being ready for government, to suggest voters minds are firming up.
Labour extends its lead to 26-points in new Ipsos poll.
Lab: 49% (+1) Con: 23% (-6) LD: 13% (+6)
(Change since November)
61% of voters say the Conservatives don't deserve to be re-elected, compared to just 19% who think they do.
Over to MoonRabbit to explain how this means the Tories are on course to win the next GE.
Sunak's ratings falling as well.
Not as shit as Truss might be Sunak's epitath.
And we'll hear about how Boris would have easily won the next election until the end of time. Never mind that you have to cock up in extraordinary fashion to cause your own MPs to mutiny after 3 years.
Pass the sick bucket on "Boris" nostalgia. It's like missing a bad smell. But tbf the Cons probably should have kept him if the criterion were purely to maximize their GE24 result.
Labour extends its lead to 26-points in new Ipsos poll.
Lab: 49% (+1) Con: 23% (-6) LD: 13% (+6)
(Change since November)
61% of voters say the Conservatives don't deserve to be re-elected, compared to just 19% who think they do.
Over to MoonRabbit to explain how this means the Tories are on course to win the next GE.
MoonRabbit has already fronted up to being wrong with her prediction; give her a break.
No, let Ben embarrass himself posting whatever he has in his head - everyone knows as fact the Tories did have a strong 10 days of polling, I was merely reporting that fact. All of a sudden it has gone into reverse, now I’m reporting that fact.
For about 10 days the Tories went up in nearly every poll, and way above MOE in a few of them - Redfield +3 Omnisis +5 Delta +4 Savanta +5 Yougov, opinium, Techne all up too. Fact.
And now, not many polls to go on over the last 5 days, but Sunak and government have lost momentum and a small step,back.
These are the facts. But what we don’t know is what was the trigger for both movements. If anything, with his boat people announcements and deals, inflation dropping back, Sunak seemed to be having a strong week. Maybe with Boris and Truss trashing the brand, Voters have given up on Tory “promises to sort things out asap”.
Wondering what is the difference between Jo Brand's joke about throwing battery acid in Farage's face and Clarkson's joke about reimaging of a scene from GoT featuring Megan Markle?
Interesting to see how many comics were fiercely defensive of Brand to be able to make such a joke (at a time when Farage was being attacked by nutters), but now piling in on Clarkson.
Personally I think both fail the simple test, they ain't funny.
Labour extends its lead to 26-points in new Ipsos poll.
Lab: 49% (+1) Con: 23% (-6) LD: 13% (+6)
(Change since November)
61% of voters say the Conservatives don't deserve to be re-elected, compared to just 19% who think they do.
Over to MoonRabbit to explain how this means the Tories are on course to win the next GE.
MoonRabbit has already fronted up to being wrong with her prediction; give her a break.
No, let Ben embarrass himself posting whatever he has in his head - everyone knows as fact the Tories did have a strong 10 days of polling, I was merely reporting that fact. All of a sudden it has gone into reverse, now I’m reporting that fact.
For about 10 days the Tories went up in nearly every poll, and way above MOE in a few of them - Redfield +3 Omnisis +5 Delta +4 Savanta +5 Yougov, opinium, Techne all up too. Fact.
And now, not many polls to go on over the last 5 days, but Sunak and government have lost momentum and a small step,back.
These are the facts. But what we don’t know is what was the trigger for both movements. If anything, with his boat people announcements and deals, inflation dropping back, Sunak seemed to be having a strong week. Maybe with Boris and Truss trashing the brand, Voters have given up on Tory “promises to sort things out asap”.
I embarrassed myself by posting an apology once your post was pointed out to me 😁
I have a lurgy. Chills, shivers, aches, vomiting, the squits
I’ll spare you more deets
Norovirus?
Did you read the Liz Truss book?
I’ve bought the Truss book and the Prince Harry book on Audible.
My listening pleasures over the festive period.
You’re a sick puppy.
I've got a couple of free Audible credits to use and I'm suffering from narcolepsy so this seems the best solution.
Not sure about those two but some of the unabridged Audible offerings are quite brilliant. Books that might be tough going to plough through* come to life through being excellently read.
Milkman by Anna Burns and Steinbeck's the Grapes of Wrath are two that I have recently enjoyed.
There's something rather decadent about listening to a book being read to you well.
PS Mr Dancer, thanks for the tip, I may try The Prince next.
(*Quite pleased with my three -oughs there!)
I've had free Audible membership via Amazon and then o2 for the last few years, finally using up my credits.
If you like Alan Partridge - the 'podcast' he has on there is quite enjoyable "From the Oasthouse". First one got me through lockdown #2. Took a couple of chapters/episodes to find it's feet, but after that there's gold in there.
Good morning. Saw this chart (see left). I’m quite surprised, since Osborne et al tried to protect the NHS during austerity, but any extra funding did not go on capital expenditure.
This surely explains a lot, and can probably be extended across the public sector more broadly.
Very interesting. I'd like to see which of the comparator nations each line is - on some of the measures one or two nations are skewing the average.
However your broad point is clearly right - extra money has gone mainly on wages at the expense of kit.
One other thing though. MRI and CT can run 24/7. You can increase use if you get more staff to run the kit overnight, which would be, in my eyes the best use of the kit. But that may not show up on these graphs.
I wonder who presided over this grand misallocation of funds? Who was Health Secretary for much of this period?
Step forward Jeremy Hunt, who held the post from 2012 to 2018.
Labour extends its lead to 26-points in new Ipsos poll.
Lab: 49% (+1) Con: 23% (-6) LD: 13% (+6)
(Change since November)
61% of voters say the Conservatives don't deserve to be re-elected, compared to just 19% who think they do.
Over to MoonRabbit to explain how this means the Tories are on course to win the next GE.
MoonRabbit has already fronted up to being wrong with her prediction; give her a break.
No, let Ben embarrass himself posting whatever he has in his head - everyone knows as fact the Tories did have a strong 10 days of polling, I was merely reporting that fact. All of a sudden it has gone into reverse, now I’m reporting that fact.
For about 10 days the Tories went up in nearly every poll, and way above MOE in a few of them - Redfield +3 Omnisis +5 Delta +4 Savanta +5 Yougov, opinium, Techne all up too. Fact.
And now, not many polls to go on over the last 5 days, but Sunak and government have lost momentum and a small step,back.
These are the facts. But what we don’t know is what was the trigger for both movements. If anything, with his boat people announcements and deals, inflation dropping back, Sunak seemed to be having a strong week. Maybe with Boris and Truss trashing the brand, Voters have given up on Tory “promises to sort things out asap”.
Snow and ice, transport strikes, avian flu hitting turkey stocks, just physically getting out to buy food and presents... Really, nobody is giving a toss about politics at the minute.
Qatar has threatened to cut off energy supplies to Belgium and Europe in a row over a corruption scandal that has shaken the European Union.
Eva Kaili, the disgraced Greek MEP and a vice-president of the European parliament, is in custody after police seized cash totalling more than €900,000 from suitcases owned by her and her Italian husband Francesco Giorgi, an aide at the EU assembly.
At a court hearing this Thursday, Kaili 44, will blame Giorgi, 35, the father of their daughter, two, for dragging her into the scandal without her knowledge, her lawyer told The Times. “She was used by her partner and father of her child, without her knowledge,” Michalis Dimitrakopoulos, her lawyer said. “She has a clear conscience and she will fight for her innocence.”
(Joke! But Musk did say be careful what you wish for.)
If one was into conspiracies, one might wonder if Musk was in the ME for more than the footy. Have the Saudi's / Qatar's put money into twitter already, perhaps they are demanding a more grown-up attacking CEO in return for some more pennies.
Qatar has threatened to cut off energy supplies to Belgium and Europe in a row over a corruption scandal that has shaken the European Union.
Eva Kaili, the disgraced Greek MEP and a vice-president of the European parliament, is in custody after police seized cash totalling more than €900,000 from suitcases owned by her and her Italian husband Francesco Giorgi, an aide at the EU assembly.
At a court hearing this Thursday, Kaili 44, will blame Giorgi, 35, the father of their daughter, two, for dragging her into the scandal without her knowledge, her lawyer told The Times. “She was used by her partner and father of her child, without her knowledge,” Michalis Dimitrakopoulos, her lawyer said. “She has a clear conscience and she will fight for her innocence.”
Wondering what is the difference between Jo Brand's joke about throwing battery acid in Farage's face and Clarkson's joke about reimaging of a scene from GoT featuring Megan Markle?
Interesting to see how many comics were fiercely defensive of Brand to be able to make such a joke (at a time when Farage was being attacked by nutters), but now piling in on Clarkson.
Personally I think both fail the simple test, they ain't funny.
Good question. The honest answer is it depends which side you're on. That's why I defend Brand and not Clarkson. For the record, other items on Clarkson's record include
* he called for strikers to be executed * Anders Breivik found his work inspiring
Labour extends its lead to 26-points in new Ipsos poll.
Lab: 49% (+1) Con: 23% (-6) LD: 13% (+6)
(Change since November)
61% of voters say the Conservatives don't deserve to be re-elected, compared to just 19% who think they do.
Over to MoonRabbit to explain how this means the Tories are on course to win the next GE.
MoonRabbit has already fronted up to being wrong with her prediction; give her a break.
No, let Ben embarrass himself posting whatever he has in his head - everyone knows as fact the Tories did have a strong 10 days of polling, I was merely reporting that fact. All of a sudden it has gone into reverse, now I’m reporting that fact.
For about 10 days the Tories went up in nearly every poll, and way above MOE in a few of them - Redfield +3 Omnisis +5 Delta +4 Savanta +5 Yougov, opinium, Techne all up too. Fact.
And now, not many polls to go on over the last 5 days, but Sunak and government have lost momentum and a small step,back.
These are the facts. But what we don’t know is what was the trigger for both movements. If anything, with his boat people announcements and deals, inflation dropping back, Sunak seemed to be having a strong week. Maybe with Boris and Truss trashing the brand, Voters have given up on Tory “promises to sort things out asap”.
To be fair you do constantly try and pretend you're not a Tory supporter yet you constantly try and read polls positively for them
Labour extends its lead to 26-points in new Ipsos poll.
Lab: 49% (+1) Con: 23% (-6) LD: 13% (+6)
(Change since November)
61% of voters say the Conservatives don't deserve to be re-elected, compared to just 19% who think they do.
Over to MoonRabbit to explain how this means the Tories are on course to win the next GE.
MoonRabbit has already fronted up to being wrong with her prediction; give her a break.
No, let Ben embarrass himself posting whatever he has in his head - everyone knows as fact the Tories did have a strong 10 days of polling, I was merely reporting that fact. All of a sudden it has gone into reverse, now I’m reporting that fact.
For about 10 days the Tories went up in nearly every poll, and way above MOE in a few of them - Redfield +3 Omnisis +5 Delta +4 Savanta +5 Yougov, opinium, Techne all up too. Fact.
And now, not many polls to go on over the last 5 days, but Sunak and government have lost momentum and a small step,back.
These are the facts. But what we don’t know is what was the trigger for both movements. If anything, with his boat people announcements and deals, inflation dropping back, Sunak seemed to be having a strong week. Maybe with Boris and Truss trashing the brand, Voters have given up on Tory “promises to sort things out asap”.
Snow and ice, transport strikes, avian flu hitting turkey stocks, just physically getting out to buy food and presents... Really, nobody is giving a toss about politics at the minute.
Wondering what is the difference between Jo Brand's joke about throwing battery acid in Farage's face and Clarkson's joke about reimaging of a scene from GoT featuring Megan Markle?
Interesting to see how many comics were fiercely defensive of Brand to be able to make such a joke (at a time when Farage was being attacked by nutters), but now piling in on Clarkson.
Personally I think both fail the simple test, they ain't funny.
They're both terrible and were both right to apologise
Wondering what is the difference between Jo Brand's joke about throwing battery acid in Farage's face and Clarkson's joke about reimaging of a scene from GoT featuring Megan Markle?
Interesting to see how many comics were fiercely defensive of Brand to be able to make such a joke (at a time when Farage was being attacked by nutters), but now piling in on Clarkson.
Personally I think both fail the simple test, they ain't funny.
Good question. The honest answer is it depends which side you're on. That's why I defend Brand and not Clarkson. For the record, other items on Clarkson's record include
* he called for strikers to be executed * Anders Breivik found his work inspiring
Anybody with half a brain knows that Clarkson stuff is all an act, its Al Murray Pub landlord shtick. I think one of the best things about Clarkson's farm is that hidden within the brambles of Top Gear -lite stunts, we did get a glimpse of real Clarkson i.e. the multi-millionaire landowner who is extremely well connected to anybody who is anybody and is neither a fool or an idiotic madman. He has spun that farm into an incredible success, monetarising every aspect of it.
Wondering what is the difference between Jo Brand's joke about throwing battery acid in Farage's face and Clarkson's joke about reimaging of a scene from GoT featuring Megan Markle?
Interesting to see how many comics were fiercely defensive of Brand to be able to make such a joke (at a time when Farage was being attacked by nutters), but now piling in on Clarkson.
Personally I think both fail the simple test, they ain't funny.
Good question. The honest answer is it depends which side you're on. That's why I defend Brand and not Clarkson. For the record, other items on Clarkson's record include
* he called for strikers to be executed * Anders Breivik found his work inspiring
Anybody with half a brain knows that Clarkson stuff is all an act, its Al Murray Pub landlord shtick. I think one of the best things about Clarkson's farm is that hidden within the brambles of Top Gear -lite stunts, we did get a glimpse of real Clarkson i.e. the multi-millionaire landowner who is extremely well connected to anybody who is anybody and is neither a fool or an idiotic madman. He has spun that farm into an incredible success, monetarising every aspect of it.
Yes, yes. Then there was Anders Breivik who didn't think it was all an act.
Jeremy Clarkson says he is "horrified to have caused so much hurt" following backlash over comments he made in a newspaper column about how he "hated" Meghan Markle https://trib.al/vGC0FcC
Wondering what is the difference between Jo Brand's joke about throwing battery acid in Farage's face and Clarkson's joke about reimaging of a scene from GoT featuring Megan Markle?
Interesting to see how many comics were fiercely defensive of Brand to be able to make such a joke (at a time when Farage was being attacked by nutters), but now piling in on Clarkson.
Personally I think both fail the simple test, they ain't funny.
Not much. Except that one didn't go through an editorial process which concluded, 'this is fine to publish in our newspaper'.
Labour extends its lead to 26-points in new Ipsos poll.
Lab: 49% (+1) Con: 23% (-6) LD: 13% (+6)
(Change since November)
61% of voters say the Conservatives don't deserve to be re-elected, compared to just 19% who think they do.
Over to MoonRabbit to explain how this means the Tories are on course to win the next GE.
MoonRabbit has already fronted up to being wrong with her prediction; give her a break.
No, let Ben embarrass himself posting whatever he has in his head - everyone knows as fact the Tories did have a strong 10 days of polling, I was merely reporting that fact. All of a sudden it has gone into reverse, now I’m reporting that fact.
For about 10 days the Tories went up in nearly every poll, and way above MOE in a few of them - Redfield +3 Omnisis +5 Delta +4 Savanta +5 Yougov, opinium, Techne all up too. Fact.
And now, not many polls to go on over the last 5 days, but Sunak and government have lost momentum and a small step,back.
These are the facts. But what we don’t know is what was the trigger for both movements. If anything, with his boat people announcements and deals, inflation dropping back, Sunak seemed to be having a strong week. Maybe with Boris and Truss trashing the brand, Voters have given up on Tory “promises to sort things out asap”.
I embarrassed myself by posting an apology once your post was pointed out to me 😁
One of the biggest and persistent news Stories of the past week was the eye watering sums defrauded from the tax payer and NHS by the VIP fast Lane of contracts to mates. As blatant and Genuine government corruption as you can get, and Sunak, he who carried out due diligence on it all and signed it all off, piss taking response of “this is shocking news, first I’ve heard of it.” Could it be that what’s sent them into polling reverse?
Labour extends its lead to 26-points in new Ipsos poll.
Lab: 49% (+1) Con: 23% (-6) LD: 13% (+6)
(Change since November)
61% of voters say the Conservatives don't deserve to be re-elected, compared to just 19% who think they do.
Over to MoonRabbit to explain how this means the Tories are on course to win the next GE.
MoonRabbit has already fronted up to being wrong with her prediction; give her a break.
No, let Ben embarrass himself posting whatever he has in his head - everyone knows as fact the Tories did have a strong 10 days of polling, I was merely reporting that fact. All of a sudden it has gone into reverse, now I’m reporting that fact.
For about 10 days the Tories went up in nearly every poll, and way above MOE in a few of them - Redfield +3 Omnisis +5 Delta +4 Savanta +5 Yougov, opinium, Techne all up too. Fact.
And now, not many polls to go on over the last 5 days, but Sunak and government have lost momentum and a small step,back.
These are the facts. But what we don’t know is what was the trigger for both movements. If anything, with his boat people announcements and deals, inflation dropping back, Sunak seemed to be having a strong week. Maybe with Boris and Truss trashing the brand, Voters have given up on Tory “promises to sort things out asap”.
Snow and ice, transport strikes, avian flu hitting turkey stocks, just physically getting out to buy food and presents... Really, nobody is giving a toss about politics at the minute.
If this movement shows up in other pollsters then I have a hypothesis: the weather and strike coverage has made a lot more people suddenly personally nervous about anything that could land them in A&E or needing an ambulance. That plus Strep-A among parents (My son has some kind of fluey illness at the moment and I was wondering yesterday what if he starts showing signs of sepsis and I need to get him to A&E - would he be seen on time). Despite the government's best efforts on Twitter I don't think striking nurses and paramedics are going to deliver them an anti-Labour backlash. It's shining the spotlight on what a shit state the health service has got itself into.
And Mick Lynch helps the nurses I think. Good cop bad cop. The NHS strikers are so obviously not the RMT hard nuts that it helps people to draw a distinction.
That also required an enormous amount of work to replan literally every lesson
Yes, buried in there, there it is.
And?
And, that increase in workload has biased you against him.
You could be right in your critiques of him. But nonetheless they are unsafe to rely on.
Driver, those are facts. And they are his responsibility.
It doesn't matter whether I'm biased in favour of him or not. Facts don't change. As Ronald Reagan failed to say, they are stubborn things.
Are you saying - for example - that I am wrong about the assessment criteria? Or about how long it takes the new GCSEs? Or about the pass marks? Merely because I'm angry that he messed up his timetable so I had no time off for two years trying to sort the mess out?
I'm thinking it's you that's too close to the subject. You appear emotionally invested in a failed system that you've been conned into thinking is somehow brilliant because you don't know much about it and you don't want to hear from people who do. Of course, you're not alone in this. Hyufd is much the same, as are many others e.g. ConHome.
Gibb is objectively, a failure who has done appalling damage to millions of children out of mindless arrogance. That's also a fact. If you don't like it, that's your problem.
Anyway, I have to go. Hope I have given you food for thought at least.
Well, we've been seeing children who have been schooled primarily since 2010 for a while, and we're starting to see those who've been schooled entirely since 2010. They don't look appallingly damaged to me.
What are your qualifications to make these assessments Driver compared to @ydoethur? Don't you think there is a chance he knows more about it than you?
I see the young adults when they leave school. I simply don't recognise them as "appallingly damaged", certainly in comparison with previous cohorts.
Not the question. I asked what your qualifications were compared to @ydoethur to make these assessments and asked whether there was a chance he knew more about it than you, unless you think that answer made you more qualified.
I answered the question, I can't be held responsible if you didn't like the answer.
No you didn't. Nor did you answer @ydoethur similar question. Again what are your qualifications to make that assessment and asked whether there was a chance that ydoethur maybe, as a professional in the field, knew more about it than you?
Yes, I did. I deal with young adults when they leave school, and have been doing so for the best part of 20 years.
Ah I now see the problem. You don't understand the English language. Try answering the question I asked.
I have now answered the question twice, I definitely can't be held responsible if you still didn't like the answer.
(Hint: in the English lanquage, the word "qualifications" doesn't extend solely to bits of paper.)
Jeremy Clarkson says he is "horrified to have caused so much hurt" following backlash over comments he made in a newspaper column about how he "hated" Meghan Markle https://trib.al/vGC0FcC
Hurt is probably the wrong word. Disgust and contempt is better.
I’m glad his daughter came out against his comments, she struck precisely the right tone too.
Labour extends its lead to 26-points in new Ipsos poll.
Lab: 49% (+1) Con: 23% (-6) LD: 13% (+6)
(Change since November)
61% of voters say the Conservatives don't deserve to be re-elected, compared to just 19% who think they do.
Over to MoonRabbit to explain how this means the Tories are on course to win the next GE.
MoonRabbit has already fronted up to being wrong with her prediction; give her a break.
No, let Ben embarrass himself posting whatever he has in his head - everyone knows as fact the Tories did have a strong 10 days of polling, I was merely reporting that fact. All of a sudden it has gone into reverse, now I’m reporting that fact.
For about 10 days the Tories went up in nearly every poll, and way above MOE in a few of them - Redfield +3 Omnisis +5 Delta +4 Savanta +5 Yougov, opinium, Techne all up too. Fact.
And now, not many polls to go on over the last 5 days, but Sunak and government have lost momentum and a small step,back.
These are the facts. But what we don’t know is what was the trigger for both movements. If anything, with his boat people announcements and deals, inflation dropping back, Sunak seemed to be having a strong week. Maybe with Boris and Truss trashing the brand, Voters have given up on Tory “promises to sort things out asap”.
To be fair you do constantly try and pretend you're not a Tory supporter yet you constantly try and read polls positively for them
Just take MoonRabbit at face value, and remember that her father is a lifelong Tory, and she tends to extrapolate from how he reacts to news.
Wondering what is the difference between Jo Brand's joke about throwing battery acid in Farage's face and Clarkson's joke about reimaging of a scene from GoT featuring Megan Markle?
Interesting to see how many comics were fiercely defensive of Brand to be able to make such a joke (at a time when Farage was being attacked by nutters), but now piling in on Clarkson.
Personally I think both fail the simple test, they ain't funny.
Are comics piling in on Clarkson? I don't think serious comics have ever found Clarkson funny. Real comics are allowed the occasional misfire.
Much as I am really pleased with seeing the LDs up 6% I can see no reason for it. Unless I have missed something they have had no publicity in the last week or so. Seems odd, but pleasing.
MOE. 7% last month and 13% now would both be consistent with the LDs hovering around 10%.
True, but unlikely to be at the extremes of the MOE in both cases. In both cases getting to the limit of the 95% probability. Combining both gives a very low probability of both happening. Of course it could be a more modest improvement combined with the result being well within the MOE on either side.
Wondering what is the difference between Jo Brand's joke about throwing battery acid in Farage's face and Clarkson's joke about reimaging of a scene from GoT featuring Megan Markle?
Interesting to see how many comics were fiercely defensive of Brand to be able to make such a joke (at a time when Farage was being attacked by nutters), but now piling in on Clarkson.
Personally I think both fail the simple test, they ain't funny.
Good question. The honest answer is it depends which side you're on. That's why I defend Brand and not Clarkson. For the record, other items on Clarkson's record include
* he called for strikers to be executed * Anders Breivik found his work inspiring
Anybody with half a brain knows that Clarkson stuff is all an act, its Al Murray Pub landlord shtick. I think one of the best things about Clarkson's farm is that hidden within the brambles of Top Gear -lite stunts, we did get a glimpse of real Clarkson i.e. the multi-millionaire landowner who is extremely well connected to anybody who is anybody and is neither a fool or an idiotic madman. He has spun that farm into an incredible success, monetarising every aspect of it.
Was punching his producer “an act”? Real or fake, the man is a boor.
Some boors appear to find other boors funny, for some reason.
Wondering what is the difference between Jo Brand's joke about throwing battery acid in Farage's face and Clarkson's joke about reimaging of a scene from GoT featuring Megan Markle?
Interesting to see how many comics were fiercely defensive of Brand to be able to make such a joke (at a time when Farage was being attacked by nutters), but now piling in on Clarkson.
Personally I think both fail the simple test, they ain't funny.
Are comics piling in on Clarkson? I don't think serious comics have ever found Clarkson funny. Good comics are allowed the occasional misfire.
"Teesside and Sunderland make it to final three bids for Rolls-Royce nuclear reactor factory
Rolls-Royce has shortlisted two North East sites as potential locations for its first factory manufacturing parts for its fleet of nuclear power stations.
The company says the shortlist of possible sites includes Teesworks on Teesside, International Advanced Manufacturing Park (IAMP) in Sunderland and South Tyneside and Gateway in North Wales.
The Small Module Reactor (SMR) facility will be around the size of three football pitches and create more than 200 long-term jobs.
It will have the capacity to generate enough low-carbon energy to power one million homes."
"It will have the capacity to generate enough low-carbon energy to power one million homes"
These dumbed-down numbers do my head in. Why can't they just tell us how many MW?
Comments
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50583&model=gfs&var=5&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=120006&model=gfs&var=5&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1
Mild weather in Northern Europe and cold weather in Ukraine helps Ukraine enormously as it means frozen ground for a winter mobile offensive while Russia's gas squeeze on Europe fails. The opposite, which this morning's 06z GFS shows (as a complete outlier in the ensembles) means more high gas demand for us and muddy quagmires in Southern and Eastern Ukraine.
1. She is one of our own, let's eulogise her because we would expect the same if we faced a similar issue
OR
2. They fundamentally believe she was, in essence, doing the right thing ie prioritising racial sensitivities over the welfare of children. In which case, she didn't really do anything wrong, she was only unfortunate in being caught out.
Take your pick as to which one you think (they are not mutually exclusive TBH).
GOP lawmakers say Trump electability problem is behind cratering support
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3778585-gop-lawmakers-say-trump-electability-problem-is-behind-cratering-support/
Then there was Margaret Hodge, about whom let us simply say that she knew about the child abuse happening in care homes in Islington (there is ample evidence to show that), who then got appointed as government minister for children.
Remember Shawn Shoesmith's defence - "I may have been bullying staff rather than run an efficient child care unit. Oh, and bullying the member of staff who kept upsetting things with concerns about a child being battered. But I was following Good Practise."
If I wanted to hand over my money over to a woman to abuse and sexually frustrate me all evening, I'd spend time with my ex wife.
The other option is he files for bankruptcy - or possibly does a fire sale to cut his losses.
"Teesside and Sunderland make it to final three bids for Rolls-Royce nuclear reactor factory
Rolls-Royce has shortlisted two North East sites as potential locations for its first factory manufacturing parts for its fleet of nuclear power stations.
The company says the shortlist of possible sites includes Teesworks on Teesside, International Advanced Manufacturing Park (IAMP) in Sunderland and South Tyneside and Gateway in North Wales.
The Small Module Reactor (SMR) facility will be around the size of three football pitches and create more than 200 long-term jobs.
It will have the capacity to generate enough low-carbon energy to power one million homes."
This surely explains a lot, and can probably be extended across the public sector more broadly.
Lab: 49% (+1)
Con: 23% (-6)
LD: 13% (+6)
(Change since November)
61% of voters say the Conservatives don't deserve to be re-elected, compared to just 19% who think they do.
And that's just Leon....
Just a bit of fun….and wouldn’t it be!
Qatar has threatened to cut off energy supplies to Belgium and Europe in a row over a corruption scandal that has shaken the European Union.
Eva Kaili, the disgraced Greek MEP and a vice-president of the European parliament, is in custody after police seized cash totalling more than €900,000 from suitcases owned by her and her Italian husband Francesco Giorgi, an aide at the EU assembly.
At a court hearing this Thursday, Kaili 44, will blame Giorgi, 35, the father of their daughter, two, for dragging her into the scandal without her knowledge, her lawyer told The Times. “She was used by her partner and father of her child, without her knowledge,” Michalis Dimitrakopoulos, her lawyer said. “She has a clear conscience and she will fight for her innocence.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/we-can-cut-your-gas-too-qatar-warns-eu-in-bribery-row-2w50cq9tz
However your broad point is clearly right - extra money has gone mainly on wages at the expense of kit.
One other thing though. MRI and CT can run 24/7. You can increase use if you get more staff to run the kit overnight, which would be, in my eyes the best use of the kit. But that may not show up on these graphs.
1) the Tories having 325+ seats, excluding Scotland; and
2) Labour having 325+ seats, excluding Scotland.
. His personal satisfaction ratings are slipping, Labour still maintain a substantial lead in voting intentions, and after Sept the Cons are no longer most trusted to grow the economy. 1/7
Dissatisfaction with Sunak up 12pts to 49% in his 2nd month, while unhappiness with Govt as a whole also historically poor at 8 in 10. Rare for a PM to hit negative scores so quickly in their tenure in Ipsos records (tho' both Johnson and Truss did, with varying results...). 2/7
https://twitter.com/GideonSkinner/status/1604825084266414080
In related news, they've ended the policy they used to justify blocking mastodon links, but they're still blocking mastodon links. They've just gone back to using fake malware warnings.
Truly innocent people sometimes do crazy stuff to prove their innocence.
Add to that the pressures of Covid/Ukraine and the dragging weight of 12 years of being in government, along with Rishi's own timidity and lightweightedness, and they are at best becalmed, bereft of any enthusiasm or energy.
Not as shit as Truss might be Sunak's epitaph.
Milkman by Anna Burns and Steinbeck's the Grapes of Wrath are two that I have recently enjoyed.
There's something rather decadent about listening to a book being read to you well.
PS Mr Dancer, thanks for the tip, I may try The Prince next.
(*Quite pleased with my three -oughs there!)
Possibly it was ?
But when a Conservative PM is behind on "is patriotic", the Conservative party is in trouble.
Couldn't see REF but assuming SNP is 4-5 and others are 1-2, REF gets the remaining 5 of "other" to leave a combined REFCON score of 28%.
(Joke! But Musk did say be careful what you wish for.)
So is this current “slide”.
For about 10 days the Tories went up in nearly every poll, and way above MOE in a few of them -
Redfield +3
Omnisis +5
Delta +4
Savanta +5
Yougov, opinium, Techne all up too. Fact.
And now, not many polls to go on over the last 5 days, but Sunak and government have lost momentum and a small step,back.
These are the facts. But what we don’t know is what was the trigger for both movements. If anything, with his boat people announcements and deals, inflation dropping back, Sunak seemed to be having a strong week. Maybe with Boris and Truss trashing the brand, Voters have given up on Tory “promises to sort things out asap”.
Interesting to see how many comics were fiercely defensive of Brand to be able to make such a joke (at a time when Farage was being attacked by nutters), but now piling in on Clarkson.
Personally I think both fail the simple test, they ain't funny.
Step forward Jeremy Hunt, who held the post from 2012 to 2018.
I wonder what he’s doing now?
* he called for strikers to be executed
* Anders Breivik found his work inspiring
Except that one didn't go through an editorial process which concluded, 'this is fine to publish in our newspaper'.
I think she's even giving me a run for my money
And Mick Lynch helps the nurses I think. Good cop bad cop. The NHS strikers are so obviously not the RMT hard nuts that it helps people to draw a distinction.
(Hint: in the English lanquage, the word "qualifications" doesn't extend solely to bits of paper.)
Disgust and contempt is better.
I’m glad his daughter came out against his comments, she struck precisely the right tone too.
Real or fake, the man is a boor.
Some boors appear to find other boors funny, for some reason.
These dumbed-down numbers do my head in. Why can't they just tell us how many MW?