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How will Stretford & Urmston compare with Chester? – politicalbetting.com
How will Stretford & Urmston compare with Chester? – politicalbetting.com
One thing that we know about the by-election tonight in the seat of Urmston and Stretford is that there will be a low turnout and that LAB will win. The vacancy has occurred because the former MP has become Deputy Mayor of Greater Manchester
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Will spill more beans when I can.
RefUK will not likely poll very well given Trafford which contains the seat voted Remain
WAHKIAKUM County = reviewed 49 under-votes in the US House race; result > zero changes
So far 3 counties down, with 4 to go > net change in race = Zilch
Next year, he ran for seat on King County Council (a real job with way better pay) but lost a close primary race. In which the fact that he was the ONLY vote against defending nurses from assault was raised against him, in a mailer sent to just about every likely primary voter in the district.
(Not a great adaptation sadly - ramped up the violence, presumably having decided the target audience was 18-25 males, and played merry hell with the plot. Moretz was good I thought, regardless of the quality of the script.)
So yeah tell me how great state schools are
https://www.tuko.co.ke/397902-20-young-blonde-actresses-hollywood-pretty.html
A former chief constable who led the investigation into alleged sexual abuse by Sir Edward Heath and who later quit over allegations of serious misconduct, is to be appointed to a police scrutiny role.
Mike Veale, who previously headed Wiltshire and Cleveland police forces, will become the interim chief executive officer at the Office of the Police and Crime Commissioner (OPCC) for Leicester, Leicestershire and Rutland. His salary has not been disclosed.
In his new role, Veale, 56, will be the senior civil servant, alongside Rupert Matthews, responsible for holding Rob Nixon, the new chief constable for Leicestershire police, to account.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ted-heath-inquiry-chief-mike-veale-lands-police-scrutiny-role-bk3v0g3bb
However Labour are not great fans of the former and the left not even fans of the latter
I went to state schools, all comprehensive, in Birmingham, Atlanta and Hampshire without anything along those lines. Fox Jr went to Leicestershire schools without any issues. Neither of us were bullied etc in class or playground for being clever and getting good results
This dude in particular is clearly haunting me, since I have personal connections with each of the areas he has been involved with there.
Someone make sure cyclefree hasn't passed out with apoplexy at this news.
People really do just look at the jobs on a CV and assume the person must be great, don't they?
I'd forgotten it was even happening.
Those affected were much more likely to feel like outsiders and to want to leave, and many believed their bosses failed to punish wrongdoers, in effect creating a culture of impunity.
The survey was conducted for the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC) as it struggles to address a race crisis facing British policing, with black Britons having less confidence and trust in the service and being less likely to join.
Black officers and staff were asked for their experiences of bullying, discrimination and micro-aggressions, and 1,614 responses were analysed. The survey defined micro-aggressions as “everyday slights, indignities, putdowns and insults”.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/dec/15/half-of-black-british-police-in-survey-report-race-incidents-with-colleagues?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1671133949
Higher rate goes from 41% to 42% (rest of UK: 40%)
Top rate goes from 46% to 47% (rest of UK: 45%)
And higher rate continues to start at £43,663 (rest of UK: £50,270)
Plus Scotland continues to have 3 basic rates: 19%, 20% and 21% - which have overall effect that anyone earning over approx £28k is paying 1% extra on excess over £28k.
It all adds up so that in Scotland:
- On £50k earnings you pay £1,552 more than in rest of UK
- On £150k earnings you pay £3,857 more than in rest of UK
Not huge differences but starting to be fairly noticeable.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-63988944
I think it achieved 42%. Which wasn't bad as the result was never in doubt.
Weather is much worse mind.
I see it all the time in the NHS.
Go with your first instinct I say.
It seems to me that your misanthropy isn't helping you in life, but I only know you here. Could be that there is a decent person inside the internet troll.
A friend at work lives in Urmston and will be voting this evening, but was considering voting Green instead of Labour, to emphasise the importance of environmental issues.
However at private schools and grammar schools and a few outstanding state schools classes tend to be less disrupted than at the average comprehensive with teachers having to spend less time on crowd control and pupils more ambitious to learn
Well the post is there for us all to see so I don't know why you are making stuff up.
a) You did mis-title him. The fact that you can post such blatant lies when we can all see it is a mystery and picked up at the time by others.
b) That also wasn't my main point, although you are trying hard to make it so. I did mention it as an obvious inaccuracy, but before that I posted the link to the EcoHealth web site page rebuttal which has nothing about his job title whatsoever so what in your mind was the reason for me doing that then? Could it have anything to do with the fact that their version contradicted all of yours I wonder. Or are you trying to pretend that part of my post wasn't there and make it about a trivial job title and therefore a storm in a teacup.
Now I don't know who is right, but rather than spout stuff from Fox News how about dismantling EcoHealth's rebuttal, then I might take you seriously.
How the hell you have the brass neck to claim you got the job title right is beyond me. Co-head is the guy in charge. Associate Vice President could be the guy just above is the guy that does the photocopying. Have you met many executives from American Corporations?
I also doubt the state school you did go to was anything other than a well above average one or if not you were just the exception that proves the rule
I'd completely forgotten about today's by-election, possibly the least reported contest of its type in decades.
Crunching a few numbers, a 10% swing Con-Lab on the 2019 figures assuming a third of the turnout (23%) would give you Labour 11,690, Conservative 2,840.
It's quite likely the Greens will be third - it would be very good for them to finish second. In my part of London, the Greens are now the main opposition to Labour and I wonder if this is a trend we will see in very solid Labour urban areas.
Nerves touched.
Unleaded is now down to 147.9 where I am and is trending down. That is very close to the same price as Jan 22, significantly cheaper than Feb 22 and lots cheaper than Mar 22 onwards.
Unless oil spikes back upwards it seems reasonable to believe that Unleaded at the least will be deflationary rather than inflationary in the national statistics for Q1 2023 and almost every commodity ought to be deflationary for Q2 2023.
The Bank has a duty to look forwards and not just fight the last war. I doubt they will properly though.
I shall abolish the Department for Education and privatise education.
Mind you the candidate was Lucy Powell.
I was one of the 754 people who voted Tory.
As for decisions of their own ... its certainly possible to kill suspects with batons or other weapons that our cops do have, or even unarmed by kneeling on their neck or other methods.
That our cops don't do that is to their credit. They do get many things wrong, and we should acknowledge that, but we should also give credit where it is due.
So was Boris Johnson, who appointed Dominic Cummings.
Anyone beginning to wonder if there might be a pattern here?
Quite the chip on the shoulder there.
Is it time for a thread on AV?
But yes, an AV thread is always welcome.
We see war crimes in the real world, in Ukraine today with the deliberate and systematic targeting of civilians and the sanctioned rape, mass murder and abuse. That is a war crime.
What happened in Iraq was war, not a war crime. Calling every act of war a war crime completely devalues and demean the words.
I've written my last thread for PB this year.
Or something.
I don’t believe Blair is a war criminal, but Incan understand why some do. To turn it around somewhat people are incredibly angry at Johnson, Hancock et al, and blame them for covid deaths. In many ways Blair was far more responsible for Iraqi deaths than Johnson and Hancock were for covid deaths. The Iraq war didn’t need to happen, Covid was thrust upon us.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election
Saddam was trying to play both sides against each other. He wanted creative ambiguity. He wanted the world (especially his enemies domestically and Iran etc) to think he had WMDs and was prepared to use them, while not wanting to give America proof he had them still.
That he didn't have them ended up being a surprise, but showed what a good job he had done in tricking the world into thinking he did.
People die in wars, its tragic but its war. War crime means more than just war happened, and to use it otherwise totally devalues the word so it becomes meaningless. Like calling everyone you disagree with a fascist until suddenly like Trumpists actual fascists come along and the word has become meaningless.
Some little time ago, I was step dad (informally) to some children. One boy was being merciless bullied for “acting white*” - getting 9/10 on tests etc.
The head teacher refused to intervene on what they saw as a “cultural issue”.
I gave him my old copy of Greece And Rome At War, with a bookmark in the chapter on the Roman Army at Cannae.
In addition to being a bright lad, his organisational capabilities proved excellent.
The headteacher was furious…
*that was the term the bully used.
Proper privatisation would mean getting rid of government control of schools at all except for an H+S style regulatory framework and inspectorate thereof, and letting schools teach what they wanted.
There would be significant drawbacks to such a system, but it’s hard to imagine they could be worse than the drawbacks of the current system. And at least it would put trained staff rather than retarded drunks who got the job because daddy knew the right people in charge of children’s education.
It worked in Germany and Japan and if you count it as an invasion then South Korea too.
It certainly didn't work in Iraq or Afghanistan.
FFS I was banned the other night for suggesting that the eventual Nuremburg Trials for Covid (and there must be such things, 20 million people have died) should be capital trials. That execution should be an option. That is all. I did not say "hang person X" or "lynch doctor Y"
I was banned for merely suggesting that the gravity of the crime demands a grave response, and people on here cheered the banning. And so PB is dying
Yes, of course we can draw distinctions between soldiers committing atrocities and Blair deciding Saddam Hussain had to go. But everything that happened in Iraq happened by Western leaders, Bush and Blair, making the choice to make war.
Lib Dem because I have a sense they’re doing worse in polling than in real council elections (and they outperformed expectations in Chester) and this could be an important factor to watch for the blue wall. I don’t think it says anything about tactical voting as this one’s a free hit.
Ref because it might indicate which end of their very wide national polling range is more
accurate (although as others have stated they wouldn’t be expected to do well in this area).
I don’t think Green is so important. They’ll do well, again because it’s a pretty left wing area and this is a free hit, but the voters will return home to labour at a GE.
Voting intentions:
Labour 46% (+1 vs November 2022)
Conservatives 29% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+1)
Green 5% (+1)
SNP 5% (nc)
Reform UK 4% (-1)
UKIP 2% (nc)
Plaid Cymru <1% (nc)
Other 1% (-1)</i>
Sampled between the 8 and 12 December 2022
https://www.kantarpublic.com/inspiration/thought-leadership/over-two-thirds-of-britons-are-concerned-that-they-will-not-be-able-to-afford-to-keep-their-homes-warm-this-winter
There was a ceasefire which led to certain obligations on Iraq regarding WMDs and cooperation, obligations they violated thus violating the ceasefire. So the war resumed.
The UN explicitly authorised the use of force against Iraq, one of the only times it did, and never rescinded that authorisation (which is how the No Fly Zone was in place) so that authorisation continued.
If you're in a state of ceasefire, dicking around with that ceasefire is either a brave or fatally stupid thing to do. For Saddam it was the latter.
Opposing the war is perfectly valid if you want to do it, but don't overegg it. It was not illegal.
I expect Ref to start a slow puncture from now on as a GE looms and refugee crossings start to slip from the front pages. Perhaps they’ll retain a core poujadiste following of people who find Sunak’s government a bit right on with all the net zero stuff, or “socialist” with its tax rises.
LLG fairly stable across most polls in the high 50s to low 60s, down from mid 60s at the height of the Trussterfuk