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Team Curtice or Team Kellner? – politicalbetting.com

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,406
    edited December 2022

    dixiedean said:

    Yeah, maybe it’s only a 15 point lead, not 20….

    “I’d be very worried if I was Keir Starmer” says Conservative Chair Nadhim Zahawi, arguing that “his numbers are very soft” in the polling, despite Labour’s large lead. @RidgeOnSunday

    https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1599324234374750208?

    World beating!
    For a charlatan talking utter bollocks across a range of topics, that is.
    Whilst that's true, Keir Starmer's support isn't built on very much.

    It's a big ask (particularly given the Conservatives will probably prefer to tear each other apart the moment they enter opposition) but, if they sort their shit out quickly, they could easily be outpolling Labour within 2 years of him taking office.
    Oh quite.
    It's built on not being the Party that would send Zahawi out on a Sunday morning to tell working folk they should gladly accept a huge real terms pay cut, whilst those not working don't have to. And that they are supporting Putin if they don't.
    Which is plenty enough for the time being.
  • OK, I posted my message at 17:53 Indian time, but when I look at the time it appears in PB, it says 17:23!

    Have you gone to Pakistan to watch the cricket?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    The age old ritual (120+ years and counting) of Labour making empty promises on Lords reform is made even more piquant by the fact that it's Labour peers gutting those promises faster than a turkey processing plant. Do your own jokes about turkeys not voting for Christmas.



    https://tinyurl.com/4uft5tuw



    What's the equivalent of bird flu in your simile, then?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    The age old ritual (120+ years and counting) of Labour making empty promises on Lords reform is made even more piquant by the fact that it's Labour peers gutting those promises faster than a turkey processing plant. Do your own jokes about turkeys not voting for Christmas.



    https://tinyurl.com/4uft5tuw



    Is this Lord's business some sort of Tridimensional Chess from Starmer? Reform/Abolition is also RefUK policy. Does Labour want the tories to get sandy vags over it and bang on about it?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/pensioners-will-better-workers-2024/

    And the Tories wonder why their poll ratings are in the toilet. They will get deservedly smashed to bits in 2024, I just hope Labour have the cojones to means test the state pension and close all defined benefit schemes across the public sector.

    That the Tories have boosted pensioners' incomes is hardly surprising, they are their core vote.

    However they have also increased the minimum wage too for the lowest earning workers. If average earners are not seeing much rise in wages that is more the fault of capitalism and big corporations than the Tories.

    It is capitalism which is concentrating a big rise in incomes and wages on a small elite ie in the City of London, Premiership footballers, chief executives and directors and tech entrepreneurs not the government. All the government can do is tax that elite more but that does not do much more for the average worker unless they work in the public sector and the government spends more on increasing their wages as their employer, as Labour would do in power
    I think you're wilfully ignoring the very large elephant in the room. Tory policies on house price inflation in the SE, and inheritance. That has a far greater and wider impact than a few top salaries.

    I recommended this piece a day or two back but it was at the end of a thread - it's worth reading, partly for the social observation. When something becomes as unspoken as defecatory habits, you know you have a problem.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/dec/03/why-inheritance-is-the-dirty-secret-of-the-middle-classes-harder-to-talk-about-than-sex
    Without inheritance and parental assistance for deposits barely anyone in London and the South East would be able to buy a house on an average income. As that very article makes clear when May threatened to take that inheritance she lost the majority the Tories won in 2015 under Cameron and Osborne promising an inheritance tax cut.

    Failing to cut immigration and not building enough affordable houses is more the issue in terms of higher house prices in the South
    500,000 immigrants last year

    Yet farce focussed on the 20,000 or so crossing the channel - that’s the news story but it will do nothing for house prices which will continue to massively increase in price.
    I don't disagree, EU migration has fallen but non EU migration is at record levels and if the Tories do lose the next election failing to get that under control will be partly to blame, see also the rise in RefUK voteshare in recent polls
    Which migration would you reduce?

    Students?
    Ukrainian refugees?
    Hong Kong BNO Passport holders?
    Work permit holders?
    Students at some lesser universities, those with work permits if the jobs have not been offered to UK born workers and job seekers first.

    Asylum seekers too should be in genuine fear of persecution not just economic migrants
    "Asylum seekers too should be in genuine fear of persecution"

    From the Collins dictionary: "Persecution is cruel and unfair treatment of a person or group".

    So you are advocating cruel and unfair treatment of asylum seekers as a matter of Government policy.

    You really are a piece of garbage.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/pensioners-will-better-workers-2024/

    And the Tories wonder why their poll ratings are in the toilet. They will get deservedly smashed to bits in 2024, I just hope Labour have the cojones to means test the state pension and close all defined benefit schemes across the public sector.

    That the Tories have boosted pensioners' incomes is hardly surprising, they are their core vote.

    However they have also increased the minimum wage too for the lowest earning workers. If average earners are not seeing much rise in wages that is more the fault of capitalism and big corporations than the Tories.

    It is capitalism which is concentrating a big rise in incomes and wages on a small elite ie in the City of London, Premiership footballers, chief executives and directors and tech entrepreneurs not the government. All the government can do is tax that elite more but that does not do much more for the average worker unless they work in the public sector and the government spends more on increasing their wages as their employer, as Labour would do in power
    I think you're wilfully ignoring the very large elephant in the room. Tory policies on house price inflation in the SE, and inheritance. That has a far greater and wider impact than a few top salaries.

    I recommended this piece a day or two back but it was at the end of a thread - it's worth reading, partly for the social observation. When something becomes as unspoken as defecatory habits, you know you have a problem.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/dec/03/why-inheritance-is-the-dirty-secret-of-the-middle-classes-harder-to-talk-about-than-sex
    Without inheritance and parental assistance for deposits barely anyone in London and the South East would be able to buy a house on an average income. As that very article makes clear when May threatened to take that inheritance she lost the majority the Tories won in 2015 under Cameron and Osborne promising an inheritance tax cut. It also mentions polling with half wanting inheritance tax abolished and 2/3 no rise in it.

    Failing to cut immigration and not building enough affordable houses is more the issue in terms of higher house prices in the South.

    You're missing the point - I stressed Tory policy on inflating house prices in the SE. Ifd it weren't for that, your special pleading would be unnecessary.
    It is homeowners in the SE themselves who are resistant to building new homes on the greenbelt, see gains by the LDs in Chesham and Amersham and in local elections on a NIMBY agenda when local Tory councils have had plans to allow new developments in local plans
    Only because HMG has put them in that very jammy position.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,900
    edited December 2022

    OK, I posted my message at 17:53 Indian time, but when I look at the time it appears in PB, it says 17:23!

    PB's gone woke and declared the odd half hour in the timezone difference to be a tool of imperialist oppression (so you can turn your watch upside down to read the time in London, in case anyone did not know).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    edited December 2022
    Report suggesting that an internal assessment shows 87% of Russia's nukes "have
    restrictions on their use". Likely to still be an optimistic assessment.

    China will be reading with interest.

    https://twitter.com/generalsvr_en/status/1599355852024033280
  • Carnyx said:

    The age old ritual (120+ years and counting) of Labour making empty promises on Lords reform is made even more piquant by the fact that it's Labour peers gutting those promises faster than a turkey processing plant. Do your own jokes about turkeys not voting for Christmas.



    https://tinyurl.com/4uft5tuw



    What's the equivalent of bird flu in your simile, then?
    Dunno, maybe 'We must keep these fine, upstanding Labour elder statesmen protected in the HoL barn, they wouldn't last long outside among those wild species. Their demise might mean the end of the Labour Poultry Co!'
  • Dura_Ace said:

    The age old ritual (120+ years and counting) of Labour making empty promises on Lords reform is made even more piquant by the fact that it's Labour peers gutting those promises faster than a turkey processing plant. Do your own jokes about turkeys not voting for Christmas.



    https://tinyurl.com/4uft5tuw



    Is this Lord's business some sort of Tridimensional Chess from Starmer? Reform/Abolition is also RefUK policy. Does Labour want the tories to get sandy vags over it and bang on about it?
    No-one gives a shit about HoL reform.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/pensioners-will-better-workers-2024/

    And the Tories wonder why their poll ratings are in the toilet. They will get deservedly smashed to bits in 2024, I just hope Labour have the cojones to means test the state pension and close all defined benefit schemes across the public sector.

    That the Tories have boosted pensioners' incomes is hardly surprising, they are their core vote.

    However they have also increased the minimum wage too for the lowest earning workers. If average earners are not seeing much rise in wages that is more the fault of capitalism and big corporations than the Tories.

    It is capitalism which is concentrating a big rise in incomes and wages on a small elite ie in the City of London, Premiership footballers, chief executives and directors and tech entrepreneurs not the government. All the government can do is tax that elite more but that does not do much more for the average worker unless they work in the public sector and the government spends more on increasing their wages as their employer, as Labour would do in power
    I think you're wilfully ignoring the very large elephant in the room. Tory policies on house price inflation in the SE, and inheritance. That has a far greater and wider impact than a few top salaries.

    I recommended this piece a day or two back but it was at the end of a thread - it's worth reading, partly for the social observation. When something becomes as unspoken as defecatory habits, you know you have a problem.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/dec/03/why-inheritance-is-the-dirty-secret-of-the-middle-classes-harder-to-talk-about-than-sex
    Without inheritance and parental assistance for deposits barely anyone in London and the South East would be able to buy a house on an average income. As that very article makes clear when May threatened to take that inheritance she lost the majority the Tories won in 2015 under Cameron and Osborne promising an inheritance tax cut.

    Failing to cut immigration and not building enough affordable houses is more the issue in terms of higher house prices in the South
    500,000 immigrants last year

    Yet farce focussed on the 20,000 or so crossing the channel - that’s the news story but it will do nothing for house prices which will continue to massively increase in price.
    I don't disagree, EU migration has fallen but non EU migration is at record levels and if the Tories do lose the next election failing to get that under control will be partly to blame, see also the rise in RefUK voteshare in recent polls
    Which migration would you reduce?

    Students?
    Ukrainian refugees?
    Hong Kong BNO Passport holders?
    Work permit holders?
    Students at some lesser universities, those with work permits if the jobs have not been offered to UK born workers and job seekers first.

    Asylum seekers too should be in genuine fear of persecution not just economic migrants
    "Asylum seekers too should be in genuine fear of persecution"

    From the Collins dictionary: "Persecution is cruel and unfair treatment of a person or group".

    So you are advocating cruel and unfair treatment of asylum seekers as a matter of Government policy.

    You really are a piece of garbage.
    No, you idiot, he means asylum seekers must be genuinely FLEEING persecution, they shouldn't be economic migrants chancing their arm
  • Dura_Ace said:

    The age old ritual (120+ years and counting) of Labour making empty promises on Lords reform is made even more piquant by the fact that it's Labour peers gutting those promises faster than a turkey processing plant. Do your own jokes about turkeys not voting for Christmas.



    https://tinyurl.com/4uft5tuw



    Is this Lord's business some sort of Tridimensional Chess from Starmer? Reform/Abolition is also RefUK policy. Does Labour want the tories to get sandy vags over it and bang on about it?
    I wonder if a lot of it is just reflexive, bang on performatively about the Lords, nationalised railways and protecting the NHS before returning to the essential Labour ideology of not quite as bad as them Tories centrism.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Dura_Ace said:

    The age old ritual (120+ years and counting) of Labour making empty promises on Lords reform is made even more piquant by the fact that it's Labour peers gutting those promises faster than a turkey processing plant. Do your own jokes about turkeys not voting for Christmas.



    https://tinyurl.com/4uft5tuw



    Is this Lord's business some sort of Tridimensional Chess from Starmer? Reform/Abolition is also RefUK policy. Does Labour want the tories to get sandy vags over it and bang on about it?
    No-one gives a shit about HoL reform.
    You mean nobody cares if it happens or not?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437

    Carnyx said:

    The age old ritual (120+ years and counting) of Labour making empty promises on Lords reform is made even more piquant by the fact that it's Labour peers gutting those promises faster than a turkey processing plant. Do your own jokes about turkeys not voting for Christmas.



    https://tinyurl.com/4uft5tuw



    What's the equivalent of bird flu in your simile, then?
    Dunno, maybe 'We must keep these fine, upstanding Labour elder statesmen protected in the HoL barn, they wouldn't last long outside among those wild species. Their demise might mean the end of the Labour Poultry Co!'
    Silly old cluckers.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    Report suggesting that an internal assessment shows 87% of Russia's nukes "have
    restrictions on their use". Likely to still be an optimistic assessment.

    China will be reading with interest.

    https://twitter.com/generalsvr_en/status/1599355852024033280

    Tritium is very much use it or lose it. Needs to be replaced every few months otherwise the build up of He3 from decay will cause the warhead to fizzle. In a modern warhead, you’d be back to the base yield of the primary - in US designs that is 300 tons of TNT. Yes, 0.3KT. There would be a lot of prompt radiation in the yield. The actual explosive power might be half that.

    Plus Tritium is worth multiple hundred $k per warhead.

    Steal a small capsule that would fit in your pocket. Replace with an old one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    edited December 2022
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The age old ritual (120+ years and counting) of Labour making empty promises on Lords reform is made even more piquant by the fact that it's Labour peers gutting those promises faster than a turkey processing plant. Do your own jokes about turkeys not voting for Christmas.



    https://tinyurl.com/4uft5tuw



    Is this Lord's business some sort of Tridimensional Chess from Starmer? Reform/Abolition is also RefUK policy. Does Labour want the tories to get sandy vags over it and bang on about it?
    No-one gives a shit about HoL reform.
    You mean nobody cares if it happens or not?
    They do, but they can live with the status quo (or a slight reform to it) rather than expend time and effort on it.

    He can get some quick, easy reforms through with a promise to do more later, and like Blair's reforms that should then last for another 20 years.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592

    Report suggesting that an internal assessment shows 87% of Russia's nukes "have
    restrictions on their use". Likely to still be an optimistic assessment.

    China will be reading with interest.

    https://twitter.com/generalsvr_en/status/1599355852024033280

    13% is still enough to ruin our day though - especially as they probably know *which* 13% is usable.

    *If* this is real - and I have doubts about the scale - then it'd be interesting to know if the problem is with warheads, delivery systems or both. My bet would be with the former.

    We have seen plenty of cruise missiles launched from submarines in recent months, and a recent ballistic missile test. They've also launched many nuclear-capable missiles from planes. Which is why I think it's probably a warhead issue.
  • Carnyx said:

    The age old ritual (120+ years and counting) of Labour making empty promises on Lords reform is made even more piquant by the fact that it's Labour peers gutting those promises faster than a turkey processing plant. Do your own jokes about turkeys not voting for Christmas.



    https://tinyurl.com/4uft5tuw



    What's the equivalent of bird flu in your simile, then?
    Dunno, maybe 'We must keep these fine, upstanding Labour elder statesmen protected in the HoL barn, they wouldn't last long outside among those wild species. Their demise might mean the end of the Labour Poultry Co!'
    Silly old cluckers.
    Don't forget the gobblers!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Dura_Ace said:

    The age old ritual (120+ years and counting) of Labour making empty promises on Lords reform is made even more piquant by the fact that it's Labour peers gutting those promises faster than a turkey processing plant. Do your own jokes about turkeys not voting for Christmas.



    https://tinyurl.com/4uft5tuw



    Is this Lord's business some sort of Tridimensional Chess from Starmer? Reform/Abolition is also RefUK policy. Does Labour want the tories to get sandy vags over it and bang on about it?
    I wonder if a lot of it is just reflexive, bang on performatively about the Lords, nationalised railways and protecting the NHS before returning to the essential Labour ideology of not quite as bad as them Tories centrism.
    It's a winning formula!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    Report suggesting that an internal assessment shows 87% of Russia's nukes "have
    restrictions on their use". Likely to still be an optimistic assessment.

    China will be reading with interest.

    https://twitter.com/generalsvr_en/status/1599355852024033280

    13% is still enough to ruin our day though - especially as they probably know *which* 13% is usable.

    *If* this is real - and I have doubts about the scale - then it'd be interesting to know if the problem is with warheads, delivery systems or both. My bet would be with the former.

    We have seen plenty of cruise missiles launched from submarines in recent months, and a recent ballistic missile test. They've also launched many nuclear-capable missiles from planes. Which is why I think it's probably a warhead issue.
    Water ingress into silos was a big problem from way back. American inspectors back in the 90s foundvthstvyhevRudsuavsiko SMEE sign wasn’t done well in terms of dealing with water ingress and removing it.

    When you add in the very thin skins of the liquid fuel missiles, corrosion, the complexity of liquid fuels engines…

    Solid fueled rockets have thicker, tougher casings. Plus, since they don’t have complex engines, it is much easier to plug seal the nozzles.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/pensioners-will-better-workers-2024/

    And the Tories wonder why their poll ratings are in the toilet. They will get deservedly smashed to bits in 2024, I just hope Labour have the cojones to means test the state pension and close all defined benefit schemes across the public sector.

    That the Tories have boosted pensioners' incomes is hardly surprising, they are their core vote.

    However they have also increased the minimum wage too for the lowest earning workers. If average earners are not seeing much rise in wages that is more the fault of capitalism and big corporations than the Tories.

    It is capitalism which is concentrating a big rise in incomes and wages on a small elite ie in the City of London, Premiership footballers, chief executives and directors and tech entrepreneurs not the government. All the government can do is tax that elite more but that does not do much more for the average worker unless they work in the public sector and the government spends more on increasing their wages as their employer, as Labour would do in power
    I think you're wilfully ignoring the very large elephant in the room. Tory policies on house price inflation in the SE, and inheritance. That has a far greater and wider impact than a few top salaries.

    I recommended this piece a day or two back but it was at the end of a thread - it's worth reading, partly for the social observation. When something becomes as unspoken as defecatory habits, you know you have a problem.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/dec/03/why-inheritance-is-the-dirty-secret-of-the-middle-classes-harder-to-talk-about-than-sex
    Without inheritance and parental assistance for deposits barely anyone in London and the South East would be able to buy a house on an average income. As that very article makes clear when May threatened to take that inheritance she lost the majority the Tories won in 2015 under Cameron and Osborne promising an inheritance tax cut.

    Failing to cut immigration and not building enough affordable houses is more the issue in terms of higher house prices in the South
    500,000 immigrants last year

    Yet farce focussed on the 20,000 or so crossing the channel - that’s the news story but it will do nothing for house prices which will continue to massively increase in price.
    I don't disagree, EU migration has fallen but non EU migration is at record levels and if the Tories do lose the next election failing to get that under control will be partly to blame, see also the rise in RefUK voteshare in recent polls
    Which migration would you reduce?

    Students?
    Ukrainian refugees?
    Hong Kong BNO Passport holders?
    Work permit holders?
    Students at some lesser universities, those with work permits if the jobs have not been offered to UK born workers and job seekers first.

    Asylum seekers too should be in genuine fear of persecution not just economic migrants
    "Asylum seekers too should be in genuine fear of persecution"

    From the Collins dictionary: "Persecution is cruel and unfair treatment of a person or group".

    So you are advocating cruel and unfair treatment of asylum seekers as a matter of Government policy.

    You really are a piece of garbage.
    No I am advocating only asylum seekers genuinely fleeing oppression being granted asylum not economic migrants whose skills we don't need.

    Unlike your open doors immigration policy regardless of the effect on.housing, public services and downward pressure on wages
  • Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/pensioners-will-better-workers-2024/

    And the Tories wonder why their poll ratings are in the toilet. They will get deservedly smashed to bits in 2024, I just hope Labour have the cojones to means test the state pension and close all defined benefit schemes across the public sector.

    That the Tories have boosted pensioners' incomes is hardly surprising, they are their core vote.

    However they have also increased the minimum wage too for the lowest earning workers. If average earners are not seeing much rise in wages that is more the fault of capitalism and big corporations than the Tories.

    It is capitalism which is concentrating a big rise in incomes and wages on a small elite ie in the City of London, Premiership footballers, chief executives and directors and tech entrepreneurs not the government. All the government can do is tax that elite more but that does not do much more for the average worker unless they work in the public sector and the government spends more on increasing their wages as their employer, as Labour would do in power
    I think you're wilfully ignoring the very large elephant in the room. Tory policies on house price inflation in the SE, and inheritance. That has a far greater and wider impact than a few top salaries.

    I recommended this piece a day or two back but it was at the end of a thread - it's worth reading, partly for the social observation. When something becomes as unspoken as defecatory habits, you know you have a problem.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/dec/03/why-inheritance-is-the-dirty-secret-of-the-middle-classes-harder-to-talk-about-than-sex
    Without inheritance and parental assistance for deposits barely anyone in London and the South East would be able to buy a house on an average income. As that very article makes clear when May threatened to take that inheritance she lost the majority the Tories won in 2015 under Cameron and Osborne promising an inheritance tax cut.

    Failing to cut immigration and not building enough affordable houses is more the issue in terms of higher house prices in the South
    500,000 immigrants last year

    Yet farce focussed on the 20,000 or so crossing the channel - that’s the news story but it will do nothing for house prices which will continue to massively increase in price.
    I don't disagree, EU migration has fallen but non EU migration is at record levels and if the Tories do lose the next election failing to get that under control will be partly to blame, see also the rise in RefUK voteshare in recent polls
    Which migration would you reduce?

    Students?
    Ukrainian refugees?
    Hong Kong BNO Passport holders?
    Work permit holders?
    Students at some lesser universities, those with work permits if the jobs have not been offered to UK born workers and job seekers first.

    Asylum seekers too should be in genuine fear of persecution not just economic migrants
    "Asylum seekers too should be in genuine fear of persecution"

    From the Collins dictionary: "Persecution is cruel and unfair treatment of a person or group".

    So you are advocating cruel and unfair treatment of asylum seekers as a matter of Government policy.

    You really are a piece of garbage.
    No, you idiot, he means asylum seekers must be genuinely FLEEING persecution, they shouldn't be economic migrants chancing their arm
    I get your correction (and thanks) but to be honest, knowing HYUFD, I suspect my interpretation is closer than yours to his genuine meaning.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,173
    edited December 2022
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/pensioners-will-better-workers-2024/

    And the Tories wonder why their poll ratings are in the toilet. They will get deservedly smashed to bits in 2024, I just hope Labour have the cojones to means test the state pension and close all defined benefit schemes across the public sector.

    That the Tories have boosted pensioners' incomes is hardly surprising, they are their core vote.

    However they have also increased the minimum wage too for the lowest earning workers. If average earners are not seeing much rise in wages that is more the fault of capitalism and big corporations than the Tories.

    It is capitalism which is concentrating a big rise in incomes and wages on a small elite ie in the City of London, Premiership footballers, chief executives and directors and tech entrepreneurs not the government. All the government can do is tax that elite more but that does not do much more for the average worker unless they work in the public sector and the government spends more on increasing their wages as their employer, as Labour would do in power
    It's the government's job to properly regulate markets and ensure wealth isn't concentrated among too few people. A minimum wage rise doesn't necessarily help someone earning between £40-50k who has seen their tax bill rise and has seen a big rise in costs due to mortgage rates rising and inflation going up much faster than their wages. That working age person would have been a Tory voter under Cameron, they are now solidly Labour and that person is a marginal voter.

    The Tories have lost control of public spending, have lost control of pension spending and are going to be rightly punished by working age people at the next election. Labour might not have the answers, but we know the Tories don't. I was at a members event just recently and once again it showed me just how out of touch they all are. Selfish, old and completely insane.
    This again?

    Tories lost control of pension spending

    UK public pension expenditure peaked in 2012 at 6.4% of GDP. *
    In 2020/2021 it was 5.0% of GDP. **

    That doesn't sound like "lost control" to me - I'm embarrassed for you. There may be arguments to make, but this is not one of them.

    Those numbers are some of the lowest amongst all the members of the OECD - about 27th out of 38 countries ranked by Govt pension expenditure.

    If pensions are to be a revenue-mine to reduce any deficit, it will be through a hit on private pensions or contributions or a Gordon Brown style stealth robbery.



    * https://www.nationmaster.com/nmx/timeseries/united-kingdom-public-pension-spending#country-ranking
    ** https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/welfare-spending-pensioner-benefits/
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The age old ritual (120+ years and counting) of Labour making empty promises on Lords reform is made even more piquant by the fact that it's Labour peers gutting those promises faster than a turkey processing plant. Do your own jokes about turkeys not voting for Christmas.



    https://tinyurl.com/4uft5tuw



    Is this Lord's business some sort of Tridimensional Chess from Starmer? Reform/Abolition is also RefUK policy. Does Labour want the tories to get sandy vags over it and bang on about it?
    No-one gives a shit about HoL reform.
    You mean nobody cares if it happens or not?
    If it fucks things up people will care.

    Otherwise, yeah.
  • Leftover Christmas pudding, sliced and fried in the Turkey dripping for breakfast… highlight of the season
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/pensioners-will-better-workers-2024/

    And the Tories wonder why their poll ratings are in the toilet. They will get deservedly smashed to bits in 2024, I just hope Labour have the cojones to means test the state pension and close all defined benefit schemes across the public sector.

    That the Tories have boosted pensioners' incomes is hardly surprising, they are their core vote.

    However they have also increased the minimum wage too for the lowest earning workers. If average earners are not seeing much rise in wages that is more the fault of capitalism and big corporations than the Tories.

    It is capitalism which is concentrating a big rise in incomes and wages on a small elite ie in the City of London, Premiership footballers, chief executives and directors and tech entrepreneurs not the government. All the government can do is tax that elite more but that does not do much more for the average worker unless they work in the public sector and the government spends more on increasing their wages as their employer, as Labour would do in power
    I think you're wilfully ignoring the very large elephant in the room. Tory policies on house price inflation in the SE, and inheritance. That has a far greater and wider impact than a few top salaries.

    I recommended this piece a day or two back but it was at the end of a thread - it's worth reading, partly for the social observation. When something becomes as unspoken as defecatory habits, you know you have a problem.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/dec/03/why-inheritance-is-the-dirty-secret-of-the-middle-classes-harder-to-talk-about-than-sex
    Without inheritance and parental assistance for deposits barely anyone in London and the South East would be able to buy a house on an average income. As that very article makes clear when May threatened to take that inheritance she lost the majority the Tories won in 2015 under Cameron and Osborne promising an inheritance tax cut.

    Failing to cut immigration and not building enough affordable houses is more the issue in terms of higher house prices in the South
    500,000 immigrants last year

    Yet farce focussed on the 20,000 or so crossing the channel - that’s the news story but it will do nothing for house prices which will continue to massively increase in price.
    I don't disagree, EU migration has fallen but non EU migration is at record levels and if the Tories do lose the next election failing to get that under control will be partly to blame, see also the rise in RefUK voteshare in recent polls
    Which migration would you reduce?

    Students?
    Ukrainian refugees?
    Hong Kong BNO Passport holders?
    Work permit holders?
    Students at some lesser universities, those with work permits if the jobs have not been offered to UK born workers and job seekers first.

    Asylum seekers too should be in genuine fear of persecution not just economic migrants
    "Asylum seekers too should be in genuine fear of persecution"

    From the Collins dictionary: "Persecution is cruel and unfair treatment of a person or group".

    So you are advocating cruel and unfair treatment of asylum seekers as a matter of Government policy.

    You really are a piece of garbage.
    No, you idiot, he means asylum seekers must be genuinely FLEEING persecution, they shouldn't be economic migrants chancing their arm
    I get your correction (and thanks) but to be honest, knowing HYUFD, I suspect my interpretation is closer than yours to his genuine meaning.
    No, it is obvious what he meant if you spent 10 seconds thinking about it, rather than instantly reaching for the dopamine hit of the Outrage Clit

    You do this quite a lot. Reach for the Outrage Clit
  • I think we need to come down on the loopholes in our asylum and immigration law like a ton of bricks.

    Not sure what that makes me. Lots of people taking the piss.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,173
    edited December 2022
    Carnyx said:

    The age old ritual (120+ years and counting) of Labour making empty promises on Lords reform is made even more piquant by the fact that it's Labour peers gutting those promises faster than a turkey processing plant. Do your own jokes about turkeys not voting for Christmas.



    https://tinyurl.com/4uft5tuw



    What's the equivalent of bird flu in your simile, then?
    OTOH Blair's regret was always not moving quickly enough !
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Report suggesting that an internal assessment shows 87% of Russia's nukes "have
    restrictions on their use". Likely to still be an optimistic assessment.

    China will be reading with interest.

    https://twitter.com/generalsvr_en/status/1599355852024033280

    Tritium is very much use it or lose it. Needs to be replaced every few months otherwise the build up of He3 from decay will cause the warhead to fizzle. In a modern warhead, you’d be back to the base yield of the primary - in US designs that is 300 tons of TNT. Yes, 0.3KT. There would be a lot of prompt radiation in the yield. The actual explosive power might be half that.

    Plus Tritium is worth multiple hundred $k per warhead.

    Steal a small capsule that would fit in your pocket. Replace with an old one.
    If you are a corrupt oligarch, you may not worry unduly that Russia's inability to uphold its end of MAD is down to your corruption. Russia is a sea of molten glass and NATO isn't but hey, you and your mistresses have lived life high on the hog up to that point.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    edited December 2022

    The age old ritual (120+ years and counting) of Labour making empty promises on Lords reform is made even more piquant by the fact that it's Labour peers gutting those promises faster than a turkey processing plant. Do your own jokes about turkeys not voting for Christmas.



    https://tinyurl.com/4uft5tuw



    It was Labour who got rid of most of the hereditary peers last time they were in power
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/pensioners-will-better-workers-2024/

    And the Tories wonder why their poll ratings are in the toilet. They will get deservedly smashed to bits in 2024, I just hope Labour have the cojones to means test the state pension and close all defined benefit schemes across the public sector.

    That the Tories have boosted pensioners' incomes is hardly surprising, they are their core vote.

    However they have also increased the minimum wage too for the lowest earning workers. If average earners are not seeing much rise in wages that is more the fault of capitalism and big corporations than the Tories.

    It is capitalism which is concentrating a big rise in incomes and wages on a small elite ie in the City of London, Premiership footballers, chief executives and directors and tech entrepreneurs not the government. All the government can do is tax that elite more but that does not do much more for the average worker unless they work in the public sector and the government spends more on increasing their wages as their employer, as Labour would do in power
    It's the government's job to properly regulate markets and ensure wealth isn't concentrated among too few people. A minimum wage rise doesn't necessarily help someone earning between £40-50k who has seen their tax bill rise and has seen a big rise in costs due to mortgage rates rising and inflation going up much faster than their wages. That working age person would have been a Tory voter under Cameron, they are now solidly Labour and that person is a marginal voter.

    The Tories have lost control of public spending, have lost control of pension spending and are going to be rightly punished by working age people at the next election. Labour might not have the answers, but we know the Tories don't. I was at a members event just recently and once again it showed me just how out of touch they all are. Selfish, old and completely insane.
    This again?

    Tories lost control of pension spending

    UK public pension expenditure peaked in 2012 at 6.4% of GDP. *
    In 2020/2021 it was 5.0% of GDP. **

    That doesn't sound like "lost control" to me - I'm embarrassed for you. There may be arguments to make, but this is not one of them.

    Those numbers are some of the lowest amongst all the members of the OECD - about 27th out of 38 countries ranked by Govt pension expenditure.

    If pensions are to be a revenue-mine to reduce any deficit, it will be through a hit on private pensions or contributions or a Gordon Brown style stealth robbery.



    * https://www.nationmaster.com/nmx/timeseries/united-kingdom-public-pension-spending#country-ranking
    ** https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/welfare-spending-pensioner-benefits/
    I wish that governments would take a similarly proactive approach to managing the even bigger problems, like our collapsing fertility rate.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Report suggesting that an internal assessment shows 87% of Russia's nukes "have
    restrictions on their use". Likely to still be an optimistic assessment.

    China will be reading with interest.

    https://twitter.com/generalsvr_en/status/1599355852024033280

    13% is still enough to ruin our day though - especially as they probably know *which* 13% is usable.

    *If* this is real - and I have doubts about the scale - then it'd be interesting to know if the problem is with warheads, delivery systems or both. My bet would be with the former.

    We have seen plenty of cruise missiles launched from submarines in recent months, and a recent ballistic missile test. They've also launched many nuclear-capable missiles from planes. Which is why I think it's probably a warhead issue.
    Russian launch systems are, in relative terms, quite unreliable. That's why S-500, etc. launchers are at an angle rather than the more efficient vertical arrangement on western types. So if the launch fucks up the missile can just disconsolately flop into the sea rather than falling back onto the deck and sinking the ship.
  • A Totes Meer for our age.


  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,015

    Discussing math with ChatGPT feels like a slow descent into insanity.

    https://twitter.com/tzumaoli/status/1599307041436098561

    It's like arguing with HYUFD!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,173
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The age old ritual (120+ years and counting) of Labour making empty promises on Lords reform is made even more piquant by the fact that it's Labour peers gutting those promises faster than a turkey processing plant. Do your own jokes about turkeys not voting for Christmas.



    https://tinyurl.com/4uft5tuw



    Is this Lord's business some sort of Tridimensional Chess from Starmer? Reform/Abolition is also RefUK policy. Does Labour want the tories to get sandy vags over it and bang on about it?
    I wonder if a lot of it is just reflexive, bang on performatively about the Lords, nationalised railways and protecting the NHS before returning to the essential Labour ideology of not quite as bad as them Tories centrism.
    It's a winning formula!
    I was surprised when Sir Keir ran with the Corbyn Agenda on Independent Schools.

    Is this all just populism amongst certain Lab activists and a misremembering of the beasting that Blair and his appointees (waves to Suzi Leather) received in the Courts from 2006-2013 (ish), when they tried it on last time.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    Report suggesting that an internal assessment shows 87% of Russia's nukes "have
    restrictions on their use". Likely to still be an optimistic assessment.

    China will be reading with interest.

    https://twitter.com/generalsvr_en/status/1599355852024033280

    Tritium is very much use it or lose it. Needs to be replaced every few months otherwise the build up of He3 from decay will cause the warhead to fizzle. In a modern warhead, you’d be back to the base yield of the primary - in US designs that is 300 tons of TNT. Yes, 0.3KT. There would be a lot of prompt radiation in the yield. The actual explosive power might be half that.

    Plus Tritium is worth multiple hundred $k per warhead.

    Steal a small capsule that would fit in your pocket. Replace with an old one.
    If you are a corrupt oligarch, you may not worry unduly that Russia's inability to uphold its end of MAD is down to your corruption. Russia is a sea of molten glass and NATO isn't but hey, you and your mistresses have lived life high on the hog up to that point.
    Plus Russia failed to nuke London, so Harrods will be open. Or San Moritz , where you live
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Report suggesting that an internal assessment shows 87% of Russia's nukes "have
    restrictions on their use". Likely to still be an optimistic assessment.

    China will be reading with interest.

    https://twitter.com/generalsvr_en/status/1599355852024033280

    13% is still enough to ruin our day though - especially as they probably know *which* 13% is usable.

    *If* this is real - and I have doubts about the scale - then it'd be interesting to know if the problem is with warheads, delivery systems or both. My bet would be with the former.

    We have seen plenty of cruise missiles launched from submarines in recent months, and a recent ballistic missile test. They've also launched many nuclear-capable missiles from planes. Which is why I think it's probably a warhead issue.
    Russia has recently been lobbing nuclear cruise missiles with the nuke taken out. The kinetic energy might make a mess on an apartment block, but it suggests either

    a) Russia has run out of conventional cruise missiles or

    b) it has discovered that the stock of useable nukes for those cruise missiles isn't there.

    This report suggests the latter.

    We can perhaps assume that the Russian nuclear sub fleet has a better quality of missile preparedness. My guess would be that is where the 13% resides - because they re more difficult to plunder.

    But it is quite possible that Russia now has less nukes that work than Pakistan or India. (Always assuming the same level of corruption doesn't apply there too.)
  • WillG said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/pensioners-will-better-workers-2024/

    And the Tories wonder why their poll ratings are in the toilet. They will get deservedly smashed to bits in 2024, I just hope Labour have the cojones to means test the state pension and close all defined benefit schemes across the public sector.

    That the Tories have boosted pensioners' incomes is hardly surprising, they are their core vote.

    However they have also increased the minimum wage too for the lowest earning workers. If average earners are not seeing much rise in wages that is more the fault of capitalism and big corporations than the Tories.

    It is capitalism which is concentrating a big rise in incomes and wages on a small elite ie in the City of London, Premiership footballers, chief executives and directors and tech entrepreneurs not the government. All the government can do is tax that elite more but that does not do much more for the average worker unless they work in the public sector and the government spends more on increasing their wages as their employer, as Labour would do in power
    It's the government's job to properly regulate markets and ensure wealth isn't concentrated among too few people. A minimum wage rise doesn't necessarily help someone earning between £40-50k who has seen their tax bill rise and has seen a big rise in costs due to mortgage rates rising and inflation going up much faster than their wages. That working age person would have been a Tory voter under Cameron, they are now solidly Labour and that person is a marginal voter.

    The Tories have lost control of public spending, have lost control of pension spending and are going to be rightly punished by working age people at the next election. Labour might not have the answers, but we know the Tories don't. I was at a members event just recently and once again it showed me just how out of touch they all are. Selfish, old and completely insane.
    This again?

    Tories lost control of pension spending

    UK public pension expenditure peaked in 2012 at 6.4% of GDP. *
    In 2020/2021 it was 5.0% of GDP. **

    That doesn't sound like "lost control" to me - I'm embarrassed for you. There may be arguments to make, but this is not one of them.

    Those numbers are some of the lowest amongst all the members of the OECD - about 27th out of 38 countries ranked by Govt pension expenditure.

    If pensions are to be a revenue-mine to reduce any deficit, it will be through a hit on private pensions or contributions or a Gordon Brown style stealth robbery.



    * https://www.nationmaster.com/nmx/timeseries/united-kingdom-public-pension-spending#country-ranking
    ** https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/welfare-spending-pensioner-benefits/
    I wish that governments would take a similarly proactive approach to managing the even bigger problems, like our collapsing fertility rate.
    Give him his due, Boris has done his best.

    But for the rest of us, it's (yet another) housing thing.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    Report suggesting that an internal assessment shows 87% of Russia's nukes "have
    restrictions on their use". Likely to still be an optimistic assessment.

    China will be reading with interest.

    https://twitter.com/generalsvr_en/status/1599355852024033280

    13% is still enough to ruin our day though - especially as they probably know *which* 13% is usable.

    *If* this is real - and I have doubts about the scale - then it'd be interesting to know if the problem is with warheads, delivery systems or both. My bet would be with the former.

    We have seen plenty of cruise missiles launched from submarines in recent months, and a recent ballistic missile test. They've also launched many nuclear-capable missiles from planes. Which is why I think it's probably a warhead issue.
    Russia has recently been lobbing nuclear cruise missiles with the nuke taken out. The kinetic energy might make a mess on an apartment block, but it suggests either

    a) Russia has run out of conventional cruise missiles or

    b) it has discovered that the stock of useable nukes for those cruise missiles isn't there.

    This report suggests the latter.

    We can perhaps assume that the Russian nuclear sub fleet has a better quality of missile preparedness. My guess would be that is where the 13% resides - because they re more difficult to plunder.

    But it is quite possible that Russia now has less nukes that work than Pakistan or India. (Always assuming the same level of corruption doesn't apply there too.)
    The nuke capable cruise missiles with the concrete warhead simulators were older missiles, probably not front line in Russian nuclear forces, anymore.

    It’s been suggested that they were using them as decoys for Ukrainian defences.

    This was a plot point in Red Storm Rising, incidentally - use obsolete missiles as a decoy attack.
  • I guess everybody expects France to win today

    Does anyone who isn't an England supporter want Poland to win?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969

    WillG said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/pensioners-will-better-workers-2024/

    And the Tories wonder why their poll ratings are in the toilet. They will get deservedly smashed to bits in 2024, I just hope Labour have the cojones to means test the state pension and close all defined benefit schemes across the public sector.

    That the Tories have boosted pensioners' incomes is hardly surprising, they are their core vote.

    However they have also increased the minimum wage too for the lowest earning workers. If average earners are not seeing much rise in wages that is more the fault of capitalism and big corporations than the Tories.

    It is capitalism which is concentrating a big rise in incomes and wages on a small elite ie in the City of London, Premiership footballers, chief executives and directors and tech entrepreneurs not the government. All the government can do is tax that elite more but that does not do much more for the average worker unless they work in the public sector and the government spends more on increasing their wages as their employer, as Labour would do in power
    It's the government's job to properly regulate markets and ensure wealth isn't concentrated among too few people. A minimum wage rise doesn't necessarily help someone earning between £40-50k who has seen their tax bill rise and has seen a big rise in costs due to mortgage rates rising and inflation going up much faster than their wages. That working age person would have been a Tory voter under Cameron, they are now solidly Labour and that person is a marginal voter.

    The Tories have lost control of public spending, have lost control of pension spending and are going to be rightly punished by working age people at the next election. Labour might not have the answers, but we know the Tories don't. I was at a members event just recently and once again it showed me just how out of touch they all are. Selfish, old and completely insane.
    This again?

    Tories lost control of pension spending

    UK public pension expenditure peaked in 2012 at 6.4% of GDP. *
    In 2020/2021 it was 5.0% of GDP. **

    That doesn't sound like "lost control" to me - I'm embarrassed for you. There may be arguments to make, but this is not one of them.

    Those numbers are some of the lowest amongst all the members of the OECD - about 27th out of 38 countries ranked by Govt pension expenditure.

    If pensions are to be a revenue-mine to reduce any deficit, it will be through a hit on private pensions or contributions or a Gordon Brown style stealth robbery.



    * https://www.nationmaster.com/nmx/timeseries/united-kingdom-public-pension-spending#country-ranking
    ** https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/welfare-spending-pensioner-benefits/
    I wish that governments would take a similarly proactive approach to managing the even bigger problems, like our collapsing fertility rate.
    Give him his due, Boris has done his best.

    But for the rest of us, it's (yet another) housing thing.
    Only partly, also more people going to university including women and delaying entering the workplace and then delaying starting a family as more women progress careers too.

    Later and lower marriage rates also a factor
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    edited December 2022
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/pensioners-will-better-workers-2024/

    And the Tories wonder why their poll ratings are in the toilet. They will get deservedly smashed to bits in 2024, I just hope Labour have the cojones to means test the state pension and close all defined benefit schemes across the public sector.

    That the Tories have boosted pensioners' incomes is hardly surprising, they are their core vote.

    However they have also increased the minimum wage too for the lowest earning workers. If average earners are not seeing much rise in wages that is more the fault of capitalism and big corporations than the Tories.

    It is capitalism which is concentrating a big rise in incomes and wages on a small elite ie in the City of London, Premiership footballers, chief executives and directors and tech entrepreneurs not the government. All the government can do is tax that elite more but that does not do much more for the average worker unless they work in the public sector and the government spends more on increasing their wages as their employer, as Labour would do in power
    I think you're wilfully ignoring the very large elephant in the room. Tory policies on house price inflation in the SE, and inheritance. That has a far greater and wider impact than a few top salaries.

    I recommended this piece a day or two back but it was at the end of a thread - it's worth reading, partly for the social observation. When something becomes as unspoken as defecatory habits, you know you have a problem.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/dec/03/why-inheritance-is-the-dirty-secret-of-the-middle-classes-harder-to-talk-about-than-sex
    Without inheritance and parental assistance for deposits barely anyone in London and the South East would be able to buy a house on an average income. As that very article makes clear when May threatened to take that inheritance she lost the majority the Tories won in 2015 under Cameron and Osborne promising an inheritance tax cut.

    Failing to cut immigration and not building enough affordable houses is more the issue in terms of higher house prices in the South
    500,000 immigrants last year

    Yet farce focussed on the 20,000 or so crossing the channel - that’s the news story but it will do nothing for house prices which will continue to massively increase in price.
    I don't disagree, EU migration has fallen but non EU migration is at record levels and if the Tories do lose the next election failing to get that under control will be partly to blame, see also the rise in RefUK voteshare in recent polls
    Which migration would you reduce?

    Students?
    Ukrainian refugees?
    Hong Kong BNO Passport holders?
    Work permit holders?
    Students at some lesser universities, those with work permits if the jobs have not been offered to UK born workers and job seekers first.

    Asylum seekers too should be in genuine fear of persecution not just economic migrants
    "Asylum seekers too should be in genuine fear of persecution"

    From the Collins dictionary: "Persecution is cruel and unfair treatment of a person or group".

    So you are advocating cruel and unfair treatment of asylum seekers as a matter of Government policy.

    You really are a piece of garbage.
    No, you idiot, he means asylum seekers must be genuinely FLEEING persecution, they shouldn't be economic migrants chancing their arm
    I get your correction (and thanks) but to be honest, knowing HYUFD, I suspect my interpretation is closer than yours to his genuine meaning.
    No, it is obvious what he meant if you spent 10 seconds thinking about it, rather than instantly reaching for the dopamine hit of the Outrage Clit

    You do this quite a lot. Reach for the Outrage Clit
    Exactly and indeed I would welcome more Christian asylum seekers genuinely fleeing persecution in North Africa, the Middle East and South Asia or North Korea
  • Russia will never be defeated because Russia will never accept defeat


  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    I guess everybody expects France to win today

    Does anyone who isn't an England supporter want Poland to win?

    The Poles presumably.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Report suggesting that an internal assessment shows 87% of Russia's nukes "have
    restrictions on their use". Likely to still be an optimistic assessment.

    China will be reading with interest.

    https://twitter.com/generalsvr_en/status/1599355852024033280

    Tritium is very much use it or lose it. Needs to be replaced every few months otherwise the build up of He3 from decay will cause the warhead to fizzle. In a modern warhead, you’d be back to the base yield of the primary - in US designs that is 300 tons of TNT. Yes, 0.3KT. There would be a lot of prompt radiation in the yield. The actual explosive power might be half that.

    Plus Tritium is worth multiple hundred $k per warhead.

    Steal a small capsule that would fit in your pocket. Replace with an old one.
    Just have to say, loving the insights on this topic from yourself and DuraAce.

    Those trigger fingers in Beijing must be getting very itchy. With all the evidence coming out of Ukraine regarding Russia's military capabilities (or lack thereof), their wargaming of a strike on a Russia with its kit and troops mostly smashed - and what does work located the other end of Russia - must make for a very tempting scenario. It is only losing big cities that might be holding them back. Now, if that threat isn't actually there...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    A Totes Meer for our age.


    Nice allusion to the painting - this is worth explaining though for those who don't know it.

    https://www.tate.org.uk/art/artworks/nash-totes-meer-dead-sea-n05717
  • BozzaBozza Posts: 37
    MattW said:

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The age old ritual (120+ years and counting) of Labour making empty promises on Lords reform is made even more piquant by the fact that it's Labour peers gutting those promises faster than a turkey processing plant. Do your own jokes about turkeys not voting for Christmas.



    https://tinyurl.com/4uft5tuw



    Is this Lord's business some sort of Tridimensional Chess from Starmer? Reform/Abolition is also RefUK policy. Does Labour want the tories to get sandy vags over it and bang on about it?
    I wonder if a lot of it is just reflexive, bang on performatively about the Lords, nationalised railways and protecting the NHS before returning to the essential Labour ideology of not quite as bad as them Tories centrism.
    It's a winning formula!
    I was surprised when Sir Keir ran with the Corbyn Agenda on Independent Schools.

    Is this all just populism amongst certain Lab activists and a misremembering of the beasting that Blair and his appointees (waves to Suzi Leather) received in the Courts from 2006-2013 (ish), when they tried it on last time.
    Hear, hear! The politics of envy is one of the manifold justifications as to why the Labour Party is never fit for government.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    I guess everybody expects France to win today

    Does anyone who isn't an England supporter want Poland to win?

    The Poles presumably.
    I'm asking people on PB because I'm here

    But thanks. Sincerely
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    Dura_Ace said:

    Report suggesting that an internal assessment shows 87% of Russia's nukes "have
    restrictions on their use". Likely to still be an optimistic assessment.

    China will be reading with interest.

    https://twitter.com/generalsvr_en/status/1599355852024033280

    13% is still enough to ruin our day though - especially as they probably know *which* 13% is usable.

    *If* this is real - and I have doubts about the scale - then it'd be interesting to know if the problem is with warheads, delivery systems or both. My bet would be with the former.

    We have seen plenty of cruise missiles launched from submarines in recent months, and a recent ballistic missile test. They've also launched many nuclear-capable missiles from planes. Which is why I think it's probably a warhead issue.
    Russian launch systems are, in relative terms, quite unreliable. That's why S-500, etc. launchers are at an angle rather than the more efficient vertical arrangement on western types. So if the launch fucks up the missile can just disconsolately flop into the sea rather than falling back onto the deck and sinking the ship.
    That idea *sounds* good, but is it correct? Looking at the Moskva (may she rest in pieces), the missile tubes are inclined at an angle, as you say. But the launch tubes are on the deck, whereas vertical ones would mostly have to be inside the ship. Having them at an angle on the deck saves a heck of a lot of internal space. Also, I'm guessing a failure on the Moskva might lead to the missile either falling onto the deck, or a short distance away in the sea. It'd be particularly perilous for the rear of the arrayed launch tubes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863

    Dura_Ace said:

    The age old ritual (120+ years and counting) of Labour making empty promises on Lords reform is made even more piquant by the fact that it's Labour peers gutting those promises faster than a turkey processing plant. Do your own jokes about turkeys not voting for Christmas.



    https://tinyurl.com/4uft5tuw



    Is this Lord's business some sort of Tridimensional Chess from Starmer? Reform/Abolition is also RefUK policy. Does Labour want the tories to get sandy vags over it and bang on about it?
    No-one gives a shit about HoL reform.
    On the other hand, a showdown with the unelected twats in that place could make Starmer very popular….
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Carnyx said:

    A Totes Meer for our age.


    Nice allusion to the painting - this is worth explaining though for those who don't know it.

    https://www.tate.org.uk/art/artworks/nash-totes-meer-dead-sea-n05717
    Being picky...the "owl in flight" in the picture does look rather like a Snowy Owl - unlikely in Cowley!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592

    Report suggesting that an internal assessment shows 87% of Russia's nukes "have
    restrictions on their use". Likely to still be an optimistic assessment.

    China will be reading with interest.

    https://twitter.com/generalsvr_en/status/1599355852024033280

    13% is still enough to ruin our day though - especially as they probably know *which* 13% is usable.

    *If* this is real - and I have doubts about the scale - then it'd be interesting to know if the problem is with warheads, delivery systems or both. My bet would be with the former.

    We have seen plenty of cruise missiles launched from submarines in recent months, and a recent ballistic missile test. They've also launched many nuclear-capable missiles from planes. Which is why I think it's probably a warhead issue.
    Water ingress into silos was a big problem from way back. American inspectors back in the 90s foundvthstvyhevRudsuavsiko SMEE sign wasn’t done well in terms of dealing with water ingress and removing it.

    When you add in the very thin skins of the liquid fuel missiles, corrosion, the complexity of liquid fuels engines…

    Solid fueled rockets have thicker, tougher casings. Plus, since they don’t have complex engines, it is much easier to plug seal the nozzles.
    I'm also cautious about successful missile tests by *all* countries. Militaries want tests to be successful, and it is all too easy to pick the best of everything: the missiles that have been rigorously checked, the crews with the most training. If a missile is in service, picking a random missile and crew is the best way to go.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,841

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/pensioners-will-better-workers-2024/

    And the Tories wonder why their poll ratings are in the toilet. They will get deservedly smashed to bits in 2024, I just hope Labour have the cojones to means test the state pension and close all defined benefit schemes across the public sector.

    That the Tories have boosted pensioners' incomes is hardly surprising, they are their core vote.

    However they have also increased the minimum wage too for the lowest earning workers. If average earners are not seeing much rise in wages that is more the fault of capitalism and big corporations than the Tories.

    It is capitalism which is concentrating a big rise in incomes and wages on a small elite ie in the City of London, Premiership footballers, chief executives and directors and tech entrepreneurs not the government. All the government can do is tax that elite more but that does not do much more for the average worker unless they work in the public sector and the government spends more on increasing their wages as their employer, as Labour would do in power
    I think you're wilfully ignoring the very large elephant in the room. Tory policies on house price inflation in the SE, and inheritance. That has a far greater and wider impact than a few top salaries.

    I recommended this piece a day or two back but it was at the end of a thread - it's worth reading, partly for the social observation. When something becomes as unspoken as defecatory habits, you know you have a problem.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/dec/03/why-inheritance-is-the-dirty-secret-of-the-middle-classes-harder-to-talk-about-than-sex
    Without inheritance and parental assistance for deposits barely anyone in London and the South East would be able to buy a house on an average income. As that very article makes clear when May threatened to take that inheritance she lost the majority the Tories won in 2015 under Cameron and Osborne promising an inheritance tax cut.

    Failing to cut immigration and not building enough affordable houses is more the issue in terms of higher house prices in the South
    500,000 immigrants last year

    Yet farce focussed on the 20,000 or so crossing the channel - that’s the news story but it will do nothing for house prices which will continue to massively increase in price.
    I don't disagree, EU migration has fallen but non EU migration is at record levels and if the Tories do lose the next election failing to get that under control will be partly to blame, see also the rise in RefUK voteshare in recent polls
    Which migration would you reduce?

    Students?
    Ukrainian refugees?
    Hong Kong BNO Passport holders?
    Work permit holders?
    Easy, students. Let universities raise the fees on foreign students to make up for the difference.
    Might that not make UK Universities uncompetitive with Australia and other countries - such as Germany?

    https://monitor.icef.com/2022/10/germanys-foreign-enrolment-reaches-record-high-with-increase-of-8-in-2021-22/

    I think its daft including students in the immigration numbers in the first place - unless and until they switch to a work visa - which more of them are doing:

    https://thepienews.com/news/students-switch-skilled-worker-visa-arrival-uk/
    I don't get the fuss with student numbers. Surely they are counted out when they leave so the net numbers should be negligible?
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,917
    edited December 2022
    Has anyone heard of Beatrice Laus?

    Less than a week old NPR Tiny Desk video of her band (edit - not her band, her stage name) beabadoodee

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHNUeBK8k7Q
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Report suggesting that an internal assessment shows 87% of Russia's nukes "have
    restrictions on their use". Likely to still be an optimistic assessment.

    China will be reading with interest.

    https://twitter.com/generalsvr_en/status/1599355852024033280

    Tritium is very much use it or lose it. Needs to be replaced every few months otherwise the build up of He3 from decay will cause the warhead to fizzle. In a modern warhead, you’d be back to the base yield of the primary - in US designs that is 300 tons of TNT. Yes, 0.3KT. There would be a lot of prompt radiation in the yield. The actual explosive power might be half that.

    Plus Tritium is worth multiple hundred $k per warhead.

    Steal a small capsule that would fit in your pocket. Replace with an old one.
    If you are a corrupt oligarch, you may not worry unduly that Russia's inability to uphold its end of MAD is down to your corruption. Russia is a sea of molten glass and NATO isn't but hey, you and your mistresses have lived life high on the hog up to that point.
    Plus Russia failed to nuke London, so Harrods will be open. Or San Moritz , where you live
    Or in your super-yacht, moored off the Azores for a while...
  • Think the Tele should stick to misidentifying Spits, at least that gives everyone a laugh.


  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    Carnyx said:

    A Totes Meer for our age.


    Nice allusion to the painting - this is worth explaining though for those who don't know it.

    https://www.tate.org.uk/art/artworks/nash-totes-meer-dead-sea-n05717
    Being picky...the "owl in flight" in the picture does look rather like a Snowy Owl - unlikely in Cowley!
    More like a Barn Owl in the moonlight, I'd think? That does change perception, no?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437
    ...

    Dura_Ace said:

    I guess everybody expects France to win today

    Does anyone who isn't an England supporter want Poland to win?

    The Poles presumably.
    I'm asking people on PB because I'm here

    But thanks. Sincerely
    I do support England (vaguely) but of the two I'd be cheering the Poles as the underdogs anyway.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Report suggesting that an internal assessment shows 87% of Russia's nukes "have
    restrictions on their use". Likely to still be an optimistic assessment.

    China will be reading with interest.

    https://twitter.com/generalsvr_en/status/1599355852024033280

    13% is still enough to ruin our day though - especially as they probably know *which* 13% is usable.

    *If* this is real - and I have doubts about the scale - then it'd be interesting to know if the problem is with warheads, delivery systems or both. My bet would be with the former.

    We have seen plenty of cruise missiles launched from submarines in recent months, and a recent ballistic missile test. They've also launched many nuclear-capable missiles from planes. Which is why I think it's probably a warhead issue.
    Russia has recently been lobbing nuclear cruise missiles with the nuke taken out. The kinetic energy might make a mess on an apartment block, but it suggests either

    a) Russia has run out of conventional cruise missiles or

    b) it has discovered that the stock of useable nukes for those cruise missiles isn't there.

    This report suggests the latter.

    We can perhaps assume that the Russian nuclear sub fleet has a better quality of missile preparedness. My guess would be that is where the 13% resides - because they re more difficult to plunder.

    But it is quite possible that Russia now has less nukes that work than Pakistan or India. (Always assuming the same level of corruption doesn't apply there too.)
    The nuke capable cruise missiles with the concrete warhead simulators were older missiles, probably not front line in Russian nuclear forces, anymore.

    It’s been suggested that they were using them as decoys for Ukrainian defences.

    This was a plot point in Red Storm Rising, incidentally - use obsolete missiles as a decoy attack.
    Ukraine does seem to have been a damned good excuse to use up every bit of kit approaching its "use by" date....
  • Reports are Foden is dropped for this evening....shakes head.
  • Has anyone heard of Beatrice Laus?

    Less than a week old NPR Tiny Desk video of her band (edit - not her band, her stage name) beabadoodee

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHNUeBK8k7Q

    damn.. wrong even after edit

    beabadoobee
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    A Totes Meer for our age.


    Nice allusion to the painting - this is worth explaining though for those who don't know it.

    https://www.tate.org.uk/art/artworks/nash-totes-meer-dead-sea-n05717
    Being picky...the "owl in flight" in the picture does look rather like a Snowy Owl - unlikely in Cowley!
    More like a Barn Owl in the moonlight, I'd think? That does change perception, no?
    Still, not going to be many voles in that metal wasteland....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Imagine being the guy telling Putin "87% of your nukes are a non-working chimera...."

    If you found it was 97%, you aren't going to tell him, are you?
  • NEW THREAD

  • ...

    Dura_Ace said:

    I guess everybody expects France to win today

    Does anyone who isn't an England supporter want Poland to win?

    The Poles presumably.
    I'm asking people on PB because I'm here

    But thanks. Sincerely
    I do support England (vaguely) but of the two I'd be cheering the Poles as the underdogs anyway.
    Do you think that there are (m)any ScotNats supporting Poland (other than Polish ones, obviously)?
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/pensioners-will-better-workers-2024/

    And the Tories wonder why their poll ratings are in the toilet. They will get deservedly smashed to bits in 2024, I just hope Labour have the cojones to means test the state pension and close all defined benefit schemes across the public sector.

    That the Tories have boosted pensioners' incomes is hardly surprising, they are their core vote.

    However they have also increased the minimum wage too for the lowest earning workers. If average earners are not seeing much rise in wages that is more the fault of capitalism and big corporations than the Tories.

    It is capitalism which is concentrating a big rise in incomes and wages on a small elite ie in the City of London, Premiership footballers, chief executives and directors and tech entrepreneurs not the government. All the government can do is tax that elite more but that does not do much more for the average worker unless they work in the public sector and the government spends more on increasing their wages as their employer, as Labour would do in power
    I think you're wilfully ignoring the very large elephant in the room. Tory policies on house price inflation in the SE, and inheritance. That has a far greater and wider impact than a few top salaries.

    I recommended this piece a day or two back but it was at the end of a thread - it's worth reading, partly for the social observation. When something becomes as unspoken as defecatory habits, you know you have a problem.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/dec/03/why-inheritance-is-the-dirty-secret-of-the-middle-classes-harder-to-talk-about-than-sex
    Without inheritance and parental assistance for deposits barely anyone in London and the South East would be able to buy a house on an average income. As that very article makes clear when May threatened to take that inheritance she lost the majority the Tories won in 2015 under Cameron and Osborne promising an inheritance tax cut.

    Failing to cut immigration and not building enough affordable houses is more the issue in terms of higher house prices in the South
    500,000 immigrants last year

    Yet farce focussed on the 20,000 or so crossing the channel - that’s the news story but it will do nothing for house prices which will continue to massively increase in price.
    I don't disagree, EU migration has fallen but non EU migration is at record levels and if the Tories do lose the next election failing to get that under control will be partly to blame, see also the rise in RefUK voteshare in recent polls
    Which migration would you reduce?

    Students?
    Ukrainian refugees?
    Hong Kong BNO Passport holders?
    Work permit holders?
    Students at some lesser universities, those with work permits if the jobs have not been offered to UK born workers and job seekers first.

    Asylum seekers too should be in genuine fear of persecution not just economic migrants
    "Asylum seekers too should be in genuine fear of persecution"

    From the Collins dictionary: "Persecution is cruel and unfair treatment of a person or group".

    So you are advocating cruel and unfair treatment of asylum seekers as a matter of Government policy.

    You really are a piece of garbage.
    No, you idiot, he means asylum seekers must be genuinely FLEEING persecution, they shouldn't be economic migrants chancing their arm
    I get your correction (and thanks) but to be honest, knowing HYUFD, I suspect my interpretation is closer than yours to his genuine meaning.
    No, it is obvious what he meant if you spent 10 seconds thinking about it, rather than instantly reaching for the dopamine hit of the Outrage Clit

    You do this quite a lot. Reach for the Outrage Clit
    I take no lessons on PB posting from a man - and I use that term on only the vaguest sense - who spends most of his life hiding under the covers, quivering in fear of imagined catastrophes and the rest of the time masturbating over his holiday snaps.

    HYUFD is the closest we have on here to a genuine fascist so I am content with my interpretation of his views.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    A Totes Meer for our age.


    Nice allusion to the painting - this is worth explaining though for those who don't know it.

    https://www.tate.org.uk/art/artworks/nash-totes-meer-dead-sea-n05717
    Being picky...the "owl in flight" in the picture does look rather like a Snowy Owl - unlikely in Cowley!
    More like a Barn Owl in the moonlight, I'd think? That does change perception, no?
    Still, not going to be many voles in that metal wasteland....
    That site was acvtually on the edge of the countryside, as this photo shows. Near the Cowley Works and the railway, which makes entire sense as they'd need empty space to dump stuff. Would have thought it ideal for voles - partly used fields, lots of overgrown weedy areas.

    http://thedabbler.co.uk/2012/05/dead-sea-dreams/planespic-3/
    https://www.britishpathe.com/video/a-gift-from-the-skies
This discussion has been closed.