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Team Curtice or Team Kellner? – politicalbetting.com
Team Curtice or Team Kellner? – politicalbetting.com
Should any @UKLabour supporters be feeling decidedly chipper this morning, here's @PeterKellner1 providing a wee bit of rain on your parade by contrasting by-election with next-election results. History doesn't necessarily repeat, mind! https://t.co/qej0bBYQ7O pic.twitter.com/0yefEyZVmp
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Better, though obviously fallible, is to consider intangibles like the national mood, and indirect factors like the probable state of the economy two years hence. And on both of those, it looks pretty gloomy for the Conservatives, though of course a comeback following unexpected events is entirely possible. And don't underestimate non-Blair Labour's ability to f things up.
This is beyond lazy by Kellner.
Barring a nuclear attack on the UK, Labour will win a crushing outright majority at the next election and it's about time we saw at least one thread from the other perspective: one which asks the very real question: just how far can they go? Or asked another way, just how low could the tory seat total fall?
Will this be 1997 or 1945? Or even more crushing?
Wakefield looks rather like Corby to me (in terms of the by election and implied Labour leads).
I kind of like the RodCrosby method of taking an average then subtracting whatever's typical. Was it 4% swing or 6% swing or something like that? Every by-election has special circumstances so you can reach any conclusion you like if you cherry-pick them.
Obviously the Tories need a break. They’re divided and pretty much gone back on everything they previously stood for. Lower taxes and stability is not something they can offer next time with a straight face.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0df25jx
Leondamus will hate it but I do recommend watching this if you want to try to understand the way the world is, instead of raging against the dying light.
Wiki says Chester went Lab +11.2, Con -16.1, so the two-party swing is 27.3/2 = 13.65%
Knock off the typical swingback which from memory was 4% => 9.65%
Go to Baxter and add that to the Lab score and subtract it from the Con score and you get Lab 6 short of a majority:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=35.05&LAB=42.6&LIB=11.8&Reform=2.1&Green=2.8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=14.3&SCOTLAB=30.7&SCOTLIB=6.7&SCOTReform=0.6&SCOTGreen=1.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=43.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
We have had unprecedented electoral volatility in recent elections so I am not convinced that swingback as measured previously is applicable. Nonetheless no room for complacency on the part of Labour, and to be fair no sign of complacency either.
It varied between zero and 8 percent swingback. Usually. Which made predictions from it fairly fraught.
"Are you better off than you were?" is a big question at every election, and voters can tell by opening their wallets and purses. A combination of bad luck and bad judgement means that the answer in 2024 is set to be pretty negative.
Haven’t looked at 2010-15 yet.
Let's assume the red wall largely returns to red. Question is about places dahn sarf once Labour - Medway as an example. Red again?
And finally, let's consider the LibDems. 'led' by the thoroughly decent but thoroughly invisible Sir Ed Davey, if Tory voters in rural / posh areas also want to hurt the Tories then we see a surge in LD seat gains not captured by things like national swings.
As the choice of government is always Tory of Labour, cutting the legs out of Tory shore seats helps Labour take power, big majority or not.
Except for not being able to think of a synonym for ditto. Its repetition weakens the impact, as does the silence from the other boat.
So we have 0, 6, 1, -2 for swingback on the past four general elections against the average of GB by elections between them.
(NB - the past three elections, I’ve done by mental arithmetic just now so could be off noticeably)
Implying that the Labour lead will be between 4% greater and 12% less than the average of by-election leads, which isn’t as useful as it could be. Especially as we won’t know the average of by-election leads until just before the next GE.
It would fit the national mood as well, we're collectively much better at saying what we don't want than what we do.
That 40% could be bothered to go out on a cold December night to show their loathing knowing the result was a foregone conclusion and without any great affection for Labour suggests they are now one very dead Parrot.
That the enthusiasm for Labour isn't there yet suggests that their majority is likely to be even greater than the polls are predicting. The upside for them is now huge. The public just want rid -as they say in the North- and like '97 they'll do what they have to to make it happen
Heck, there are posters who haven't fully accepted that Johnson had used up his nine lives.
Governments recover, somewhat, from their mid-term polling.
As it happens I was replacing my 2022 wall chart with 2023 yesterday and on the side of it were the 2024 dates
I realised that in one years time I will be putting up 2024 wall chart ( and noting our diamond wedding anniversary date) and that we could have a further year before a GE
While everything points to a labour win it is hardly nailed on as much as many hope not least as within a 2 year time frame many events will happen which may well endorse labour's hopes but then may not
Mr. NorthWales, I'm not on the left, but it would take a black swan to avoid Labour winning the most seats and forming the government, either as coalition, minority, or perhaps with their own majority.
The Conservatives have a lot against them. If it hadn't been for the Truss episode then Sunak might have been able to move things on, but instead of a fresh start Truss worsened their situation.
The economy's in poor shape, the blues have been in for a long time, they've had a good amount of infighting, and the media (haven't shrieked about a bad exchange rate) have barely covered the pound's recovery.
'Same here!'
Though I would argue that the extent to which media leads, rather than relfects, readership is limited.
And that was during a period of an economy on the mend. The run-up to GE24 will not have that benign economic backdrop.
Morris is right, the Tories need a black swan.
And the Tories wonder why their poll ratings are in the toilet. They will get deservedly smashed to bits in 2024, I just hope Labour have the cojones to means test the state pension and close all defined benefit schemes across the public sector.
There are large numbers of ageing or aged voters who have a big interest in inflated property prices, nimby attitudes to development, pumping an ever-increasing share of national wealth into pensions and other elderly entitlements, and the preservation of inherited wealth, which is increasingly important to everyone's life chances as social mobility becomes a thing of the past for most people. Accounting for simple demography and differential turnout in elections, a majority of the electorate is now aged over 55, and this proportion continues to grow. All of these things play in the Tories' favour.
Consider: even in 1997, Major managed to salvage a little over 30% of the popular vote (indeed, the Conservative Party has never polled below 30% in any General Election since its foundation by Peel in 1834.) Whatever the (notoriously fickle and unreliable) opinion polls say right now, I don't see them dipping below 30% in the next GE, and they'll probably do better than that. One third of the popular vote probably sees us into Hung Parliament territory: provided that the Government doesn't do anything electorally suicidal (like scrapping the triple lock or lowering the inheritance tax threshold,) Labour as largest party but short of a majority still seems like the most probable outcome of the next election to me.
Edit: and I think the 'ditto' is also intended to convey the same tone.
get a sheep bone for 5p and stew it for 14 hours.
Anyhow, when the moment comes after a big Xmas dinner, no-one ever wants it anyway.
We had a tiny honeymoon - a clawback of a handful of percentage points. But nothing yet to puncture it properly. it’s a while since any obviously bad news for the Tory party. The budget was dull but no surprises. The asylum seekers story is a few weeks old now and those stories tend not to favour Labour either.
With the latest sexual assault scandal brewing and people about to get their first properly huge heating bills of the winter we might be about to enter another difficult patch for the government.
You don’t tend to hear broadcasters mention their rivals by name too often but Gary Lineker, with a trademark knowing glance, couldn’t help himself.
“England finish top and will take on Senegal at 7pm on Sunday,” he said after the 3-0 win over Wales. “That’s live on, well, ITV. Oh well.”
Whether Lineker was merely lightheartedly bemoaning that a big England game wasn’t on the BBC was irrelevant. The nation made up its mind. He was playing the ITV curse card.
The numbers don’t lie — England have statistically won far more World Cup or European Championship matches screened on the BBC in the past few decades. In fact it’s not even close.
In the 13 big tournaments England have played since Euro 96, they have won 21 of their 31 games shown on the BBC (we are including rare occasions when both channels show the same match, i.e. the Euro 2020 final, the Euro 96 semi-final and even the group-stage rematch against Germany four years later at Euro 2000). That’s a win percentage of 68 per cent.
ITV’s equivalent numbers for World Cups and Euros since 1996 are nine victories from 23 matches, a 39 per cent win rate.
The disparity is even greater when you ditch the Euros and just look at World Cups; BBC 71 per cent win ratio, ITV a miserable 19 per cent, with three wins from 16 matches. And one of those wins was against Trinidad & Tobago, one ended a draw after extra time and the other was actually shown on the BBC as well.
The BBC have obviously screened some particularly painful defeats, like both quarter-final penalty-shoot out losses against Portugal in the mid-2000s and the humiliating 4-1 defeat to Germany. But when it comes to soul destroying misery and collective mass feeling of self-worthlessness, well that’s ITV’s bag.
https://theathletic.com/3964222/2022/12/04/england-itv-curse-world-cup/
Neither Miliband nor Cameron won a majority at the following general election and with Opinium last night showing the Tories narrowing the gap no room for complacency for Starmer and some hope for Sunak
However they have also increased the minimum wage too for the lowest earning workers. If average earners are not seeing much rise in wages that is more the fault of capitalism and big corporations than the Tories.
It is capitalism which is concentrating a big rise in incomes and wages on a small elite ie in the City of London, Premiership footballers, chief executives and directors and tech entrepreneurs not the government. All the government can do is tax that elite more but that does not do much more for the average worker unless they work in the public sector and the government spends more on increasing their wages as their employer, as Labour would do in power
This will be largely rallying DNVs and WNVs.
I recommended this piece a day or two back but it was at the end of a thread - it's worth reading, partly for the social observation. When something becomes as unspoken as defecatory habits, you know you have a problem.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/dec/03/why-inheritance-is-the-dirty-secret-of-the-middle-classes-harder-to-talk-about-than-sex
But, I can never tell if she'd be interested or not.
The Tories have lost control of public spending, have lost control of pension spending and are going to be rightly punished by working age people at the next election. Labour might not have the answers, but we know the Tories don't. I was at a members event just recently and once again it showed me just how out of touch they all are. Selfish, old and completely insane.
The turnout for a foregone conclusion was decent.
But at least their approach forces results, and they are technically scoring average to bigger than average totals, so teamwise there can be no complaints.
Current run rate 7.44 - utterly hilarious.
With Sunak as PM the question is whether I vote Conservative or not. If Boris Johnson returns, there's a greater chance of me voting Labout, or for a third party, than Conservative.
The Tories did well in 2015 because a lot of the impact on austerity was binned on the local Labour councils so many voters blamed the Tories. This time round the only party to blame is incredibly obvious.
person.
Plenty of certified, though.
With PB's posting history, it's not actually impossible that the real Bozza would turn up to boost his chances. I don't think Bozza is that Bozza, but maybe one day.
One of the stories that Conservatives like to tell themselves at this stage in the cycle is that it will just be a short break, the public will hate the reality of a Socialist Government and the Conservatives will quickly bounce back.
The evidence for that is patchy.
That will rally votes for the Conservatives in Hampshire, Berkshire and Surrey.
And therefore, by her own logic, women are indeed the collateral damage she is willing to offer up as the price for pursuing a policy rooted in gender ideology that ignores the biological reality of most women’s lives and the duplicity of male abusers.
The first minister, it appears, has had a Damascene conversion and now joins the ranks of those of us who have been arguing for years that the policy of self-ID was inherently risky to the safety of women because of men – not the trans people, as activists have wilfully manipulated the narrative to be – who will take advantage of any loosening of the already meagre protections that exist for women.
Does that now make Sturgeon a transphobe? I suspect she would vigorously argue it does not. And yet she has stood by while others who have been arguing that exact same point have been vilified.
https://www.holyrood.com/editors-column/view,has-nicola-sturgeon-finally-woken-up-to-the-dangers-of-selfid
Only after 1997 did they face more than a decade in opposition and the 2024 economic environment for Starmer is far tougher than 1997 was for New Labour and Blair
Every opportunity the good fairy gave you has turned to dung because of the character flaws the bad fairy gave you.
Si monumentum requiris circumspice as they must have taught you.
Failing to cut immigration and not building enough affordable houses is more the issue in terms of higher house prices in the South.