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Could the Tories could be heading for a worse result than 1997? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 19 in General
imageCould the Tories could be heading for a worse result than 1997? – politicalbetting.com

It might have been forgotten but the Labour GB vote lead in the 1997 General Election when Tony Blair won his landslide was just 12%.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,609
    First, like Labour!
  • DrkBDrkB Posts: 68
    Probably best for the country if the tories get less than a hundred seats and a new party emerges that just doesnt oander to retirees
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,022
    edited November 19
    3rd. Like one of the parties in Ashfield.

    The header is correct to ask questions. At present there are hardly any answers, I think.

    And from the PB Dyspeptic Euro-media Obsessive Correspondent, a very interesting report from France24 on how the French energy mix is under pressure and changing.

    Interesting stuff in particular about floating solar on reservoirs.

    https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/down-to-earth/20221118-france-s-energy-mix-in-turmoil

    (This morning we are exporting just under £1m per hour of electricity to France)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,861
    The Tories are probably heading for a lower voteshare than 1997 under Sunak ie below 30% (when Boris resigned the Tories were still over 30% in most polls).

    Sunak is heading for close to Brown's 2010 vote at present ie about 29% with Mori or a bit below. However in most polls he is still doing better than the early 20s rating Truss left him with
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 29,974
    One for @Leon

    https://eurasiantimes.com/ukraine-russias-nuclear-capable-kh-55-missile/

    Russia apparently used a cruise missile with a dummy nuclear warhead against Ukraine.
  • I think this is a question to which the answer is "No". In order for the Tories to do particularly badly, the Lib Dems need to be doing a bit better than they are doing at the moment. Harold Wilson reckoned that for Labour to do well in his day, the Liberals had to be over 10%, to hoover up enough Tory votes to give Labour the edge. That's not happening at the moment, and if an election was to be held soon there would be a swingback to the Conservatives - see the columnists in the Times, all rowing furiously behind Sunak & Co.

    If the Tories were under 28%, and the Lib Dems over 12%, then the results could be brutal for the Conservatives, but at the moment the old reality is still in play - for the Conservative Party to be obliterated it will need to be buried at the crossroads with a stake through it's cold, unforgiving heart.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,861
    DrkB said:

    Probably best for the country if the tories get less than a hundred seats and a new party emerges that just doesnt oander to retirees

    The only party that could possibly replace the Tories as the main party of the right is another populist right Farage party, whether RefUK or similar.

    As the Canadian Reform party replaced the Canadian Tories in 1993, Le Pen's party have replaced Les Republicains in France and Brothers of Italy have replaced Forza Italia in Italy
  • DrkB said:

    Probably best for the country if the tories get less than a hundred seats and a new party emerges that just doesnt oander to retirees

    Which party do you have in mind as all parties do at present
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,469
    YES
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,768
    edited November 19
    Sorry I am late, I am here for the interview about a job a twitter, have I found the right place?
  • Sorry I am late, I am here for the interview about a job a twitter, have I found the right place?

    Are you prepared to work "hardcore" and spend 24 hours in the office ? If so we will do a poll of the staff here to see if you're in.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,469
    The next election is going to be epochal for the Tories. They will be crucified. Voters aren’t just angry they are vengeful. And they are right to be

    The only question - barring black swans - is whether it will be a massive landslide defeat, or even worse: closer to extinction. Under 100 seats

    At the moment I suspect the latter
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,609
    edited November 19
    MattW said:

    3rd. Like one of the parties in Ashfield.

    The header is correct to ask questions. At present there are hardly any answers, I think.

    And from the PB Dyspeptic Euro-media Obsessive Correspondent, a very interesting report from France24 on how the French energy mix is under pressure and changing.

    Interesting stuff in particular about floating solar on reservoirs.

    https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/down-to-earth/20221118-france-s-energy-mix-in-turmoil

    (This morning we are exporting just under £1m per hour of electricity to France)

    Floating solar panels on reservoirs seems like a good idea. Win-win.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,768
    edited November 19

    Sorry I am late, I am here for the interview about a job a twitter, have I found the right place?

    Are you prepared to work "hardcore" and spend 24 hours in the office ? If so we will do a poll of the staff here to see if you're in.
    Sounds like I will be reducing my current workload then...as I am in my office now working (well waiting for a model to finish training, then back to it).
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,100
    fpt

    Had an interesting chat with my left wing friend yesterday. He thought Brexit could well be behind much of our economic malaise but he still supported it even if it would make us poorer. The EU is creating some nasty governments in its member states. We could solve a lot of our problems if we built a more Scandanavian-style state in his view. Introduced some wealth taxes etc.

    He was also surprisingly hostile to Starmer. Angry at how he had treated Jeremy Corbyn and how so many of Corbyn's critics refused to directly call him an anti-semite. Why shouldn't people feel strongly about what Israel is doing to the Palestinians?

    Also I hadn't realised Augustus Carp had returned. There's a blast from the past.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,469
    I’ve just learned from a friend that everyone in Bangkok is masked all the time. It’s not just Japan and Korea.

    How sad. How terribly sad
  • DrkBDrkB Posts: 68
    Leon said:

    I’ve just learned from a friend that everyone in Bangkok is masked all the time. It’s not just Japan and Korea.

    How sad. How terribly sad

    Thais are lovely people but great thinkers they are not
  • HYUFD said:

    The Tories are probably heading for a lower voteshare than 1997 under Sunak ie below 30% (when Boris resigned the Tories were still over 30% in most polls).

    Sunak is heading for close to Brown's 2010 vote at present ie about 29% with Mori or a bit below. However in most polls he is still doing better than the early 20s rating Truss left him with

    The 20s ratings are best seen as a sort of yelp of pain from a stunned electorate. It was always likely to pass quickly and has now done so.

    I'd expect things to settle down now to a steady mid-to-high twenties, subject to how well SuHunt perform and whatever assistance Labour give them (always a decent possibility).

    If I were a Tory I would want a result that permits the Augean stables to be cleaned out but without threatening extinction. The sweet spot would be between 75 and 150 seats. That's a perfectly realistic outcome but the way FPTP works it would be easy to miss on either side.

    Good luck, mate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,861

    fpt

    Had an interesting chat with my left wing friend yesterday. He thought Brexit could well be behind much of our economic malaise but he still supported it even if it would make us poorer. The EU is creating some nasty governments in its member states. We could solve a lot of our problems if we built a more Scandanavian-style state in his view. Introduced some wealth taxes etc.

    He was also surprisingly hostile to Starmer. Angry at how he had treated Jeremy Corbyn and how so many of Corbyn's critics refused to directly call him an anti-semite. Why shouldn't people feel strongly about what Israel is doing to the Palestinians?

    Also I hadn't realised Augustus Carp had returned. There's a blast from the past.

    Sweden of course also has the far right Sweden Democrats as Kingmakers in its Parliament now too
  • DrkBDrkB Posts: 68
    Leon said:

    The next election is going to be epochal for the Tories. They will be crucified. Voters aren’t just angry they are vengeful. And they are right to be

    The only question - barring black swans - is whether it will be a massive landslide defeat, or even worse: closer to extinction. Under 100 seats

    At the moment I suspect the latter

    Worst outcome i think is if they get 150 to 200 seats. Labour will be doninant but the tories will limp on as the broken official opposition
  • There is certainly an opportunity for a new party that is fiscally conservative, socially liberal and appeals to working age people, to emerge. It is the sort of party that should appeal to people in their 20s and 30s if they got the messaging and policies right.

    The Tory Party either needs to become that or disband and make way for a party that can. We have pandered to 93 year olds for far too long.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859

    One for @Leon

    https://eurasiantimes.com/ukraine-russias-nuclear-capable-kh-55-missile/

    Russia apparently used a cruise missile with a dummy nuclear warhead against Ukraine.

    Yep, it’s possible that they’re now almost totally out of conventional missiles, so they’re repurposing the ‘special’ ones with non-nuclear warheads.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,468

    I think this is a question to which the answer is "No". In order for the Tories to do particularly badly, the Lib Dems need to be doing a bit better than they are doing at the moment. Harold Wilson reckoned that for Labour to do well in his day, the Liberals had to be over 10%, to hoover up enough Tory votes to give Labour the edge. That's not happening at the moment, and if an election was to be held soon there would be a swingback to the Conservatives - see the columnists in the Times, all rowing furiously behind Sunak & Co.

    If the Tories were under 28%, and the Lib Dems over 12%, then the results could be brutal for the Conservatives, but at the moment the old reality is still in play - for the Conservative Party to be obliterated it will need to be buried at the crossroads with a stake through it's cold, unforgiving heart.

    Not sure about that. Tactical voting, particularly in the blue wall, will push the LD vote up quite considerably in an actual GE. There's still lots of folk out there who would never vote Labour but want the Tories out. Although the LDs offer little at the moment, that doesn't matter.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,046
    edited November 19
    Michael Gove at Centre for Policy Studies

    And of course, there is one major new growth area in which Britain has been powering ahead. In the last few months, we have dramatically increased the number of ex-prime ministers contributing to our economy in the UK.…

    One other thing, of course, that that Ian mentioned is the importance of green growth. It is sometimes the case, in some of the more simplistic commentary that you see about politics – and by simplistic commentary, I do not mean in the pages of The Daily Telegraph – that you see a tension being held up between a move towards net zero, and environmental enhancement and economic growth overall.


    https://capx.co/unlocking-the-change-this-country-needs/
  • There is certainly an opportunity for a new party that is fiscally conservative, socially liberal and appeals to working age people, to emerge. It is the sort of party that should appeal to people in their 20s and 30s if they got the messaging and policies right.

    The Tory Party either needs to become that or disband and make way for a party that can. We have pandered to 93 year olds for far too long.

    Isn't that supposed to be the Lib Dems?
  • I expect Starmer to win well in 24 but that Sunak and Hunt have stabilised the economy after the hapless Truss, who with the antics of the right, have likely ended any hope of voter redemption for the next election

    As for beyond I do hope Starmer is able to deal with the single market issue and reestablish trade with the EU

    Indeed I would hope that that work is ongoing now with Sunak and Hunt who must realise it is the path to growth but I do not expect the UK to rejoin

    As a conservative since I first voted, with the exception of Blair in 97 and 01, I am angry with the ERG and the right who have effectively destroyed the one nation conservative I support

    I will continue to support Sunak and Hunt but am content to see Starmer in no 10 in 2024
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,861
    Leon said:

    The next election is going to be epochal for the Tories. They will be crucified. Voters aren’t just angry they are vengeful. And they are right to be

    The only question - barring black swans - is whether it will be a massive landslide defeat, or even worse: closer to extinction. Under 100 seats

    At the moment I suspect the latter

    As pointed out the only way the Tories would face extinction is if Farage's party won more seats than them at the general election. Even 90 odd Tory seats gives near zero prospect of that.

    The economy then becomes Labour's problem and offers the chance for the Tories to revive in opposition
  • It's possible the tories are planning a late surge so we don't bother to create progressive alliances.
    :)
  • DrkB said:

    Leon said:

    The next election is going to be epochal for the Tories. They will be crucified. Voters aren’t just angry they are vengeful. And they are right to be

    The only question - barring black swans - is whether it will be a massive landslide defeat, or even worse: closer to extinction. Under 100 seats

    At the moment I suspect the latter

    Worst outcome i think is if they get 150 to 200 seats. Labour will be doninant but the tories will limp on as the broken official opposition
    Yes, that's exactly the point I was trying to make a few minutes back! A result that allows them to limp on without reforming would be as disastrous as one that saw them lose the status of the Official Opposition.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,861
    edited November 19
    NEW. Republican primary poll: Trump gets a bounce from the announcement of his candidacy last week and despite his re election as Florida governor DeSantis still trails well behind him with GOP primary voters

    Trump 46%
    DeSantis 28%
    Pence 7%
    Cruz 3%
    Haley 2%


    Harvard-Harris Nov 18
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1593909258013544448?s=20&t=irQOF0RQ9yxigrQBLqieuw
  • Of course it is fascinating to see those who initially praised Truss before making a sharp U-turn when it was obvious she was crap. Other Tories always said she would be crap, those are the only ones I can now respect.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,222
    edited November 19

    There is certainly an opportunity for a new party that is fiscally conservative, socially liberal and appeals to working age people, to emerge. It is the sort of party that should appeal to people in their 20s and 30s if they got the messaging and policies right.

    The Tory Party either needs to become that or disband and make way for a party that can. We have pandered to 93 year olds for far too long.

    It really needs to split into that, and a party targeted at older Eurosceptics and social conservatives, I think. The problem for the right is that, without PR, that would leave the right divided and electorally disadvantaged as the left and centre-left historically have in Britain since the Liberal-Labour conflict.

    I'd personally favour a cross-party agreement for PR, and four new parties on the right and left, although this isn't going to happen anytime too easily or too soon, especially with Labour doing so well at the moment too.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,543

    I think this is a question to which the answer is "No". In order for the Tories to do particularly badly, the Lib Dems need to be doing a bit better than they are doing at the moment. Harold Wilson reckoned that for Labour to do well in his day, the Liberals had to be over 10%, to hoover up enough Tory votes to give Labour the edge. That's not happening at the moment, and if an election was to be held soon there would be a swingback to the Conservatives - see the columnists in the Times, all rowing furiously behind Sunak & Co.

    If the Tories were under 28%, and the Lib Dems over 12%, then the results could be brutal for the Conservatives, but at the moment the old reality is still in play - for the Conservative Party to be obliterated it will need to be buried at the crossroads with a stake through it's cold, unforgiving heart.

    I think this is a question to which the answer is "No". In order for the Tories to do particularly badly, the Lib Dems need to be doing a bit better than they are doing at the moment. Harold Wilson reckoned that for Labour to do well in his day, the Liberals had to be over 10%, to hoover up enough Tory votes to give Labour the edge. That's not happening at the moment, and if an election was to be held soon there would be a swingback to the Conservatives - see the columnists in the Times, all rowing furiously behind Sunak & Co.

    If the Tories were under 28%, and the Lib Dems over 12%, then the results could be brutal for the Conservatives, but at the moment the old reality is still in play - for the Conservative Party to be obliterated it will need to be buried at the crossroads with a stake through it's cold, unforgiving heart.

    FWIW Baxtering Tory 28, Lab 50, LD 8 (as in one of the better for the Tories polls recently) gives Lab 457, Tory 106 on new boundaries.

    Yes it could be worse than 1997 but there is a long way to go. Some One Nation Tory voters I know are beginning to be more agnostic about switching to Labour than they were under Boris and Truss.

    And can Labour hold their discipline for 2 years and produce a non suicidal manifesto? (Can anyone?)

    And can Labour find a non unicorn post Brexit policy that is any good. No-one else has.
  • HYUFD said:

    NEW. Republican primary poll: Trump gets a bounce from the announcement of his candidacy last week and despite his re election DeSantis still trails well behind him with GOP primary voters

    Trump 46%
    DeSantis 28%
    Pence 7%
    Cruz 3%
    Haley 2%


    Harvard-Harris Nov 18
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1593909258013544448?s=20&t=irQOF0RQ9yxigrQBLqieuw

    Apparently when Biden saw that poll his smile spread so wide he had to have his face sown back together again.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,022

    MattW said:

    3rd. Like one of the parties in Ashfield.

    The header is correct to ask questions. At present there are hardly any answers, I think.

    And from the PB Dyspeptic Euro-media Obsessive Correspondent, a very interesting report from France24 on how the French energy mix is under pressure and changing.

    Interesting stuff in particular about floating solar on reservoirs.

    https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/down-to-earth/20221118-france-s-energy-mix-in-turmoil

    (This morning we are exporting just under £1m per hour of electricity to France)

    Floating solar panels on reservoirs seems like a good idea. Win-win.
    Extra benefits such as reducing evaporation - which is a bigger saving the more sun it gets.

    I do wonder what happens to the solar when the reservoir is empty in a droight, though.

    In other news, our reservoirs seem to be filling up rapidly, with all the *&^%^%$ rain. My local ones are now way ahead of 2018.
  • Of course it is fascinating to see those who initially praised Truss before making a sharp U-turn when it was obvious she was crap. Other Tories always said she would be crap, those are the only ones I can now respect.

    The Daily Express was brilliant. They just ignored it. Didn't happen. They were like City supporters when the opposition happens to score a goal - talked about other things for a bit until normality was restored.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,322
    Leon said:

    I’ve just learned from a friend that everyone in Bangkok is masked all the time. It’s not just Japan and Korea.

    How sad. How terribly sad

    If you look at a live Tokyo webcam you get a good idea of the prevalence. 60%-70% outdoors at the moment at an estimate.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,100
    Wasn't the worse case scenario that Brexit would mean GDP 6% lower than otherwise over the long term? Given worst case is always unlikely a more realistic figure would be 4%. About 0.25% a year. Yet the current forecasts look worse than that. If the government stopped playing silly buggers over Northern Ireland, actually did something useful with the newly attained powers and used migration policy sensibly, would this really need to be so terrible?

    There are of course many other things, cough housing cough, that we could fix to boost the economy. At the moment no-one seems to have any ideas.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,463
    Leon said:

    The next election is going to be epochal for the Tories. They will be crucified. Voters aren’t just angry they are vengeful. And they are right to be

    The only question - barring black swans - is whether it will be a massive landslide defeat, or even worse: closer to extinction. Under 100 seats

    At the moment I suspect the latter

    I'm inclined to agree.

    The uniquely awful disaster of Liz Truss' time as PM is almost bound to lead to a uniquely awful election defeat for the Tories - how could it not?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,100
    HYUFD said:

    fpt

    Had an interesting chat with my left wing friend yesterday. He thought Brexit could well be behind much of our economic malaise but he still supported it even if it would make us poorer. The EU is creating some nasty governments in its member states. We could solve a lot of our problems if we built a more Scandanavian-style state in his view. Introduced some wealth taxes etc.

    He was also surprisingly hostile to Starmer. Angry at how he had treated Jeremy Corbyn and how so many of Corbyn's critics refused to directly call him an anti-semite. Why shouldn't people feel strongly about what Israel is doing to the Palestinians?

    Also I hadn't realised Augustus Carp had returned. There's a blast from the past.

    Sweden of course also has the far right Sweden Democrats as Kingmakers in its Parliament now too
    He was critical of Schengen too.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 463
    The trouble with being the party of pensioners and unproductive wealth (e.g. housing) is that those are both highly unproductive parts of the economy.

    During the Tories time in power they have:

    - Cut spending on most things other than pensions and healthcare (of course mostly for elderly people) to the bone.
    - Retained subsidies (e.g. on fuel next year, winter fuel allowance etc) for retirees
    - Maintained pensions in real terms while workers get a pay cut
    - Increased taxes significantly on working people

    All of this results in a drag on economic growth and further falls in living standards for those in work. All while having no grand strategy to encourage investment and growth.

    Pensioners may vote but you can't win an election with them alone. The Tories deserve to be tossed out of power for at least a decade.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,466
    edited November 19

    HYUFD said:

    NEW. Republican primary poll: Trump gets a bounce from the announcement of his candidacy last week and despite his re election DeSantis still trails well behind him with GOP primary voters

    Trump 46%
    DeSantis 28%
    Pence 7%
    Cruz 3%
    Haley 2%


    Harvard-Harris Nov 18
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1593909258013544448?s=20&t=irQOF0RQ9yxigrQBLqieuw

    Apparently when Biden saw that poll his smile spread so wide he had to have his face sown back together again.
    At least he gets loyalty discount at the plastic surgeon.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,469

    Leon said:

    The next election is going to be epochal for the Tories. They will be crucified. Voters aren’t just angry they are vengeful. And they are right to be

    The only question - barring black swans - is whether it will be a massive landslide defeat, or even worse: closer to extinction. Under 100 seats

    At the moment I suspect the latter

    I'm inclined to agree.

    The uniquely awful disaster of Liz Truss' time as PM is almost bound to lead to a uniquely awful election defeat for the Tories - how could it not?

    It’s like the Tories sat down and meticulously planned a way they could dismay or enrage everyone inclined to vote for them

    Apart from pensioners and non-doms. That’s who they’re left with

    Their vote share could go under 25%. And it’s around 25% that they enter the extinction zone
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,093
    It does feel like 95/96 politically (although in no other way) and you can definitely see a Labour landslide. Bet Starmer is feeling this too. He's going all in with the Blair playbook and the goal is a similar result. Expect a solid but cautious manifesto, no risks to the big win, then in power sticking to tory fiscal plans for a year or so, also something on the Constitution (FFA for Scotland?), and maybe towards the end of the first term a muscular foreign policy initiative with a military aspect to it.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,029
    Ratters said:

    The trouble with being the party of pensioners and unproductive wealth (e.g. housing) is that those are both highly unproductive parts of the economy.

    During the Tories time in power they have:

    - Cut spending on most things other than pensions and healthcare (of course mostly for elderly people) to the bone.
    - Retained subsidies (e.g. on fuel next year, winter fuel allowance etc) for retirees
    - Maintained pensions in real terms while workers get a pay cut
    - Increased taxes significantly on working people

    All of this results in a drag on economic growth and further falls in living standards for those in work. All while having no grand strategy to encourage investment and growth.

    Pensioners may vote but you can't win an election with them alone. The Tories deserve to be tossed out of power for at least a decade.

    To be fair, in a country with 70% home ownership, it's hard to work out how to democratically shaft such a large majority. There are no signs Starmer will.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 463
    EPG said:

    Ratters said:

    The trouble with being the party of pensioners and unproductive wealth (e.g. housing) is that those are both highly unproductive parts of the economy.

    During the Tories time in power they have:

    - Cut spending on most things other than pensions and healthcare (of course mostly for elderly people) to the bone.
    - Retained subsidies (e.g. on fuel next year, winter fuel allowance etc) for retirees
    - Maintained pensions in real terms while workers get a pay cut
    - Increased taxes significantly on working people

    All of this results in a drag on economic growth and further falls in living standards for those in work. All while having no grand strategy to encourage investment and growth.

    Pensioners may vote but you can't win an election with them alone. The Tories deserve to be tossed out of power for at least a decade.

    To be fair, in a country with 70% home ownership, it's hard to work out how to democratically shaft such a large majority. There are no signs Starmer will.
    I'd have thought a similar proportion are employed, yet governments have had no issues shafting workers.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,029
    Ratters said:

    EPG said:

    Ratters said:

    The trouble with being the party of pensioners and unproductive wealth (e.g. housing) is that those are both highly unproductive parts of the economy.

    During the Tories time in power they have:

    - Cut spending on most things other than pensions and healthcare (of course mostly for elderly people) to the bone.
    - Retained subsidies (e.g. on fuel next year, winter fuel allowance etc) for retirees
    - Maintained pensions in real terms while workers get a pay cut
    - Increased taxes significantly on working people

    All of this results in a drag on economic growth and further falls in living standards for those in work. All while having no grand strategy to encourage investment and growth.

    Pensioners may vote but you can't win an election with them alone. The Tories deserve to be tossed out of power for at least a decade.

    To be fair, in a country with 70% home ownership, it's hard to work out how to democratically shaft such a large majority. There are no signs Starmer will.
    I'd have thought a similar proportion are employed, yet governments have had no issues shafting workers.
    Mid- and high-income workers for sure.
  • EPG said:

    Ratters said:

    The trouble with being the party of pensioners and unproductive wealth (e.g. housing) is that those are both highly unproductive parts of the economy.

    During the Tories time in power they have:

    - Cut spending on most things other than pensions and healthcare (of course mostly for elderly people) to the bone.
    - Retained subsidies (e.g. on fuel next year, winter fuel allowance etc) for retirees
    - Maintained pensions in real terms while workers get a pay cut
    - Increased taxes significantly on working people

    All of this results in a drag on economic growth and further falls in living standards for those in work. All while having no grand strategy to encourage investment and growth.

    Pensioners may vote but you can't win an election with them alone. The Tories deserve to be tossed out of power for at least a decade.

    To be fair, in a country with 70% home ownership, it's hard to work out how to democratically shaft such a large majority. There are no signs Starmer will.
    Starmer and labour demanded the retention of the triple lock in the HOC the week before the Autumn statement

    The triple lock was introduced by Cameron and Clegg and is supported by all parties including the SNP, evidenced by Blackford demanding Sunak confirmed it at the PMQs before the Autumn statement

    There is no point Labour supporters objecting to the triple lock when their leader is 100% committed to it
  • RattersRatters Posts: 463
    EPG said:

    Ratters said:

    EPG said:

    Ratters said:

    The trouble with being the party of pensioners and unproductive wealth (e.g. housing) is that those are both highly unproductive parts of the economy.

    During the Tories time in power they have:

    - Cut spending on most things other than pensions and healthcare (of course mostly for elderly people) to the bone.
    - Retained subsidies (e.g. on fuel next year, winter fuel allowance etc) for retirees
    - Maintained pensions in real terms while workers get a pay cut
    - Increased taxes significantly on working people

    All of this results in a drag on economic growth and further falls in living standards for those in work. All while having no grand strategy to encourage investment and growth.

    Pensioners may vote but you can't win an election with them alone. The Tories deserve to be tossed out of power for at least a decade.

    To be fair, in a country with 70% home ownership, it's hard to work out how to democratically shaft such a large majority. There are no signs Starmer will.
    I'd have thought a similar proportion are employed, yet governments have had no issues shafting workers.
    Mid- and high-income workers for sure.
    Tax band freeze shafts all workers.

    Pay rises way below inflation for nurses, teachers etc shafts ordinary workers.

    Pensioners all protected nicely.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 606
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    I’ve just learned from a friend that everyone in Bangkok is masked all the time. It’s not just Japan and Korea.

    How sad. How terribly sad

    If you look at a live Tokyo webcam you get a good idea of the prevalence. 60%-70% outdoors at the moment at an estimate.
    Now you've done it. We've lost Leon for the evening now.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859
    Ratters said:

    EPG said:

    Ratters said:

    EPG said:

    Ratters said:

    The trouble with being the party of pensioners and unproductive wealth (e.g. housing) is that those are both highly unproductive parts of the economy.

    During the Tories time in power they have:

    - Cut spending on most things other than pensions and healthcare (of course mostly for elderly people) to the bone.
    - Retained subsidies (e.g. on fuel next year, winter fuel allowance etc) for retirees
    - Maintained pensions in real terms while workers get a pay cut
    - Increased taxes significantly on working people

    All of this results in a drag on economic growth and further falls in living standards for those in work. All while having no grand strategy to encourage investment and growth.

    Pensioners may vote but you can't win an election with them alone. The Tories deserve to be tossed out of power for at least a decade.

    To be fair, in a country with 70% home ownership, it's hard to work out how to democratically shaft such a large majority. There are no signs Starmer will.
    I'd have thought a similar proportion are employed, yet governments have had no issues shafting workers.
    Mid- and high-income workers for sure.
    Tax band freeze shafts all workers.

    Pay rises way below inflation for nurses, teachers etc shafts ordinary workers.

    Pensioners all protected nicely.
    The tax band freeze also affects private and occupational pension payments on higher incomes.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,093
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The next election is going to be epochal for the Tories. They will be crucified. Voters aren’t just angry they are vengeful. And they are right to be

    The only question - barring black swans - is whether it will be a massive landslide defeat, or even worse: closer to extinction. Under 100 seats

    At the moment I suspect the latter

    I'm inclined to agree.

    The uniquely awful disaster of Liz Truss' time as PM is almost bound to lead to a uniquely awful election defeat for the Tories - how could it not?
    It’s like the Tories sat down and meticulously planned a way they could dismay or enrage everyone inclined to vote for them

    Apart from pensioners and non-doms. That’s who they’re left with

    Their vote share could go under 25%. And it’s around 25% that they enter the extinction zone
    Yes it's hard to see either a head or heart reason to vote Tory now. They could be left with the pure tribal vote - which means a thumping loss. Still, the world turns. They'll be back one day, venerable old party that they are.
  • edited November 19
    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1593947818225553408

    Matty desperately trying to explain it away
  • There is certainly an opportunity for a new party that is fiscally conservative, socially liberal and appeals to working age people, to emerge. It is the sort of party that should appeal to people in their 20s and 30s if they got the messaging and policies right.

    The Tory Party either needs to become that or disband and make way for a party that can. We have pandered to 93 year olds for far too long.

    The Conservatives tried that before, or something pretty close.

    Remember? Thingy. Posh sounding chap, the one who wasn't Boris. Huskies. Lost the referendum and ended up in a shepherd's hut.

    What's he doing now? And will it take three election defeats for the party to consider that path again?
  • DrkBDrkB Posts: 68

    HYUFD said:

    NEW. Republican primary poll: Trump gets a bounce from the announcement of his candidacy last week and despite his re election DeSantis still trails well behind him with GOP primary voters

    Trump 46%
    DeSantis 28%
    Pence 7%
    Cruz 3%
    Haley 2%


    Harvard-Harris Nov 18
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1593909258013544448?s=20&t=irQOF0RQ9yxigrQBLqieuw

    Apparently when Biden saw that poll his smile spread so wide he had to have his face sown back together again.
    A trump kari lake ticket could be interesting....a guy who tried to instigate a coup together with a batshit crazy election denier
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,466
    edited November 19

    Of course it is fascinating to see those who initially praised Truss before making a sharp U-turn when it was obvious she was crap. Other Tories always said she would be crap, those are the only ones I can now respect.

    I find it more fascinating to see which Tory supporters here attacked Truss and ramped Sunak, and are now shocked that there are zero silver linings in his punishment budget. Big G sticks out by being the only one who comes off with a lack of regret about the current arrangement, and I suspect that that won't last.

    If Truss had clung on and just 'existed' with no disasters (I agree that's a big if), I can't really see how her polling wouldn't be on a par with what we're seeing today.
  • I would suggest what we are witnessing post the Autumn statement is that everyone wants taxes to rise as long as it is not theirs
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,046
    Gove noticed a missed call from Johnson on his phone at around 9.20pm and several with no caller ID, which he assumed to be the Downing Street switchboard.

    He returned the calls and asked Johnson if he was resigning. “No Mikey mate, I’m afraid you are. I’m going to have to ask you to step back from your role as levelling-up secretary. I’m reconstructing the government.”

    In shock, Gove replied: “So you’re not resigning?” Johnson said: “No, you are.”


    https://www.ft.com/content/e6d6c253-45a1-4c53-9621-405e2e1507e6
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,222
    edited November 19

    Sorry I am late, I am here for the interview about a job a twitter, have I found the right place?

    Are you prepared to work "hardcore" and spend 24 hours in the office ? If so we will do a poll of the staff here to see if you're in.
    Sounds like I will be reducing my current workload then...as I am in my office now working (well waiting for a model to finish training, then back to it).
    For some reason there I suddenly imagined you were waiting for a supermodel to come into the office to finish your training and liven up a dull Saturday, but my wife is tsking and telling me off from across the room for immoral thoughts.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,023
    edited November 19

    Of course it is fascinating to see those who initially praised Truss before making a sharp U-turn when it was obvious she was crap. Other Tories always said she would be crap, those are the only ones I can now respect.

    I find it more fascinating to see which Tory supporters here attacked Truss and ramped Sunak, and are now shocked that there are zero silver linings in his punishment budget. Big G sticks out by being the only one who comes off with a lack of regret about the current arrangement, and I suspect that that won't last.

    If Truss had clung on and just 'existed' with no disasters (I agree that's a big if), I can't really see how her polling wouldn't be on a par with what we're seeing today.
    You really seem to be in denial about Truss and I credit Sunak and Hunt for stabilising the economy with the OBR predicting 2.6% growth in 25 and 2.7% in 26

    Furthermore the IMF approved the Autumn statement yesterday

    This matters for many reasons including people's mortgages

    I have consistently rejected the ERG and hope that for the county's sake Sunak and Hunt continue to put hard decisions first no matter the electoral consequences
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,705

    HYUFD said:

    NEW. Republican primary poll: Trump gets a bounce from the announcement of his candidacy last week and despite his re election DeSantis still trails well behind him with GOP primary voters

    Trump 46%
    DeSantis 28%
    Pence 7%
    Cruz 3%
    Haley 2%


    Harvard-Harris Nov 18
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1593909258013544448?s=20&t=irQOF0RQ9yxigrQBLqieuw

    Apparently when Biden saw that poll his smile spread so wide he had to have his face sown back together again.
    It's a great poll if you're broadly backing Biden or Trump imv.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,469
    Here we go


    Voting Intention:

    LAB: 47% (+5)
    CON: 21% (=)
    LDM: 10% (+1)
    GRN: 7% (-2)
    REF: 6% (-2)
    SNP: 5% (=)

    Via @PeoplePolling, On 18 November,
    Changes w/ 9 November.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,469
    edited November 19
    That poll when Baxtered gives:

    Labour: 499
    Tories: 47

    SNP are official opposition on 52 seats
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,214
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    NEW. Republican primary poll: Trump gets a bounce from the announcement of his candidacy last week and despite his re election DeSantis still trails well behind him with GOP primary voters

    Trump 46%
    DeSantis 28%
    Pence 7%
    Cruz 3%
    Haley 2%


    Harvard-Harris Nov 18
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1593909258013544448?s=20&t=irQOF0RQ9yxigrQBLqieuw

    Apparently when Biden saw that poll his smile spread so wide he had to have his face sown back together again.
    It's a great poll if you're broadly backing Biden or Trump imv.
    Not such a great poll if you’re a member of the human race though.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,502

    *Betting Post 🐎

    2:05 Ascot - L'Homme Presse

    2:25 Haydock - Wholestone Long Shot of The Week

    2:40 Ascot - Constitution Hill

    3:00 Haydock - A Plus Tard

    Whatever you bet on, good luck 🙂

    Maximum of Only three losers today, with Constitution Hill not now making season bow because of the ground,

    It’s interesting how they left the final decision to the horse, who stamped their hoof, felt it a touch too hard and said neigh.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,469

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    NEW. Republican primary poll: Trump gets a bounce from the announcement of his candidacy last week and despite his re election DeSantis still trails well behind him with GOP primary voters

    Trump 46%
    DeSantis 28%
    Pence 7%
    Cruz 3%
    Haley 2%


    Harvard-Harris Nov 18
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1593909258013544448?s=20&t=irQOF0RQ9yxigrQBLqieuw

    Apparently when Biden saw that poll his smile spread so wide he had to have his face sown back together again.
    It's a great poll if you're broadly backing Biden or Trump imv.
    Not such a great poll if you’re a member of the human race though.
    Looks like the Republicans have seen what the UK
    Tories have done and decided: yep, that works, copy that
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,463
    kinabalu said:

    It does feel like 95/96 politically (although in no other way) and you can definitely see a Labour landslide. Bet Starmer is feeling this too. He's going all in with the Blair playbook and the goal is a similar result. Expect a solid but cautious manifesto, no risks to the big win, then in power sticking to tory fiscal plans for a year or so, also something on the Constitution (FFA for Scotland?), and maybe towards the end of the first term a muscular foreign policy initiative with a military aspect to it.

    There are several ways in which the situation is worse than 95/96 for the Tories. The main one is the sense in which they appear not to have a fucking clue. Making mistakes is one thing, but the whole Truss/Kwarteng, then do the exact opposite with Sunak/Hunt within less than two months, thing is on a completely different level.

    The fact that the Tory party put Truss/Kwarteng in charge, and then they were so bad that they were replaced in just 49 days is you wouldn't trust them to boil an egg. There's still a couple of years for the voters to decide they don't trust the Tories to be the Opposition, and somehow manage to put the Lib Dems, or Farage's latest publicity vehicle in the running for that instead.

    49 days.
  • Sorry I am late, I am here for the interview about a job a twitter, have I found the right place?

    Are you prepared to work "hardcore" and spend 24 hours in the office ? If so we will do a poll of the staff here to see if you're in.
    Sounds like I will be reducing my current workload then...as I am in my office now working (well waiting for a model to finish training, then back to it).
    For some reason there I suddenly imagined you were waiting for a supermodel to come into the office to finish your training and liven up a dull Saturday, but my wife is tsking and telling me off from across the room for immoral thoughts.
    Now if I worked for a crypto exchange....
  • DrkBDrkB Posts: 68

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    NEW. Republican primary poll: Trump gets a bounce from the announcement of his candidacy last week and despite his re election DeSantis still trails well behind him with GOP primary voters

    Trump 46%
    DeSantis 28%
    Pence 7%
    Cruz 3%
    Haley 2%


    Harvard-Harris Nov 18
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1593909258013544448?s=20&t=irQOF0RQ9yxigrQBLqieuw

    Apparently when Biden saw that poll his smile spread so wide he had to have his face sown back together again.
    It's a great poll if you're broadly backing Biden or Trump imv.
    Not such a great poll if you’re a member of the human race though.
    Still think Trump wins over desantis for charisma despite his flaws. And charisma is very important in us elections
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,469
    edited November 19

    kinabalu said:

    It does feel like 95/96 politically (although in no other way) and you can definitely see a Labour landslide. Bet Starmer is feeling this too. He's going all in with the Blair playbook and the goal is a similar result. Expect a solid but cautious manifesto, no risks to the big win, then in power sticking to tory fiscal plans for a year or so, also something on the Constitution (FFA for Scotland?), and maybe towards the end of the first term a muscular foreign policy initiative with a military aspect to it.

    There are several ways in which the situation is worse than 95/96 for the Tories. The main one is the sense in which they appear not to have a fucking clue. Making mistakes is one thing, but the whole Truss/Kwarteng, then do the exact opposite with Sunak/Hunt within less than two months, thing is on a completely different level.

    The fact that the Tory party put Truss/Kwarteng in charge, and then they were so bad that they were replaced in just 49 days is you wouldn't trust them to boil an egg. There's still a couple of years for the voters to decide they don't trust the Tories to be the Opposition, and somehow manage to put the Lib Dems, or Farage's latest publicity vehicle in the running for that instead.

    49 days.
    Yes. Quite so. John Major’s government - after the ERM debacle - was actually pretty competent. Full of infighting and euro wars, but they knew what they wanted - low tax, high growth - and aimed for it, and got it

    This now is worse by orders of magnitude. “Hi we’re the Tories and we’ve been in power 12 years and we’re successfully delivering the worst recession, the worst fall in living standards and the highest taxes since the signing of Magna Carta. Plus tons of immigration we claim we don’t want. And chaos. Endless chaos. Vote for us in 2024”
  • DrkBDrkB Posts: 68
    Think trumps strategy may be to allow the likes of kari lake to push the election denial stuff. The more he can discredit the system the better for him
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,067

    I think this is a question to which the answer is "No". In order for the Tories to do particularly badly, the Lib Dems need to be doing a bit better than they are doing at the moment. Harold Wilson reckoned that for Labour to do well in his day, the Liberals had to be over 10%, to hoover up enough Tory votes to give Labour the edge. That's not happening at the moment, and if an election was to be held soon there would be a swingback to the Conservatives - see the columnists in the Times, all rowing furiously behind Sunak & Co.

    If the Tories were under 28%, and the Lib Dems over 12%, then the results could be brutal for the Conservatives, but at the moment the old reality is still in play - for the Conservative Party to be obliterated it will need to be buried at the crossroads with a stake through it's cold, unforgiving heart.

    The Conservatives might not do very well at the next election simply because it might not get many votes.

    What on earth is its appeal to people like me, and others who aren't pensioners?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,022

    Of course it is fascinating to see those who initially praised Truss before making a sharp U-turn when it was obvious she was crap. Other Tories always said she would be crap, those are the only ones I can now respect.

    I find it more fascinating to see which Tory supporters here attacked Truss and ramped Sunak, and are now shocked that there are zero silver linings in his punishment budget. Big G sticks out by being the only one who comes off with a lack of regret about the current arrangement, and I suspect that that won't last.

    If Truss had clung on and just 'existed' with no disasters (I agree that's a big if), I can't really see how her polling wouldn't be on a par with what we're seeing today.
    Reading the timescales on the budget, I'd say that the real punishment budget will be the first one after the next General Election ie 2025.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,469

    I think this is a question to which the answer is "No". In order for the Tories to do particularly badly, the Lib Dems need to be doing a bit better than they are doing at the moment. Harold Wilson reckoned that for Labour to do well in his day, the Liberals had to be over 10%, to hoover up enough Tory votes to give Labour the edge. That's not happening at the moment, and if an election was to be held soon there would be a swingback to the Conservatives - see the columnists in the Times, all rowing furiously behind Sunak & Co.

    If the Tories were under 28%, and the Lib Dems over 12%, then the results could be brutal for the Conservatives, but at the moment the old reality is still in play - for the Conservative Party to be obliterated it will need to be buried at the crossroads with a stake through it's cold, unforgiving heart.

    The Conservatives might not do very well at the next election simply because it might not get many votes.

    What on earth is its appeal to people like me, and others who aren't pensioners?
    They will control the borders and -

    No wait. They won’t

    They will counter Wokeness and -

    Nope. They won’t do that

    They will cut taxes and -

    Nah

    The answer is: zero. The Tories have zero appeal to anyone under 60
  • TresTres Posts: 1,338
    edited November 19
    DrkB said:

    Think trumps strategy may be to allow the likes of kari lake to push the election denial stuff. The more he can discredit the system the better for him

    No, the more he discredits the system the more it just depresses turnout from his own supporters. A problem when fishing for votes in the thick-as-pigshit segment of the population.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,513
    Chortle.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,067

    EPG said:

    Ratters said:

    The trouble with being the party of pensioners and unproductive wealth (e.g. housing) is that those are both highly unproductive parts of the economy.

    During the Tories time in power they have:

    - Cut spending on most things other than pensions and healthcare (of course mostly for elderly people) to the bone.
    - Retained subsidies (e.g. on fuel next year, winter fuel allowance etc) for retirees
    - Maintained pensions in real terms while workers get a pay cut
    - Increased taxes significantly on working people

    All of this results in a drag on economic growth and further falls in living standards for those in work. All while having no grand strategy to encourage investment and growth.

    Pensioners may vote but you can't win an election with them alone. The Tories deserve to be tossed out of power for at least a decade.

    To be fair, in a country with 70% home ownership, it's hard to work out how to democratically shaft such a large majority. There are no signs Starmer will.
    Starmer and labour demanded the retention of the triple lock in the HOC the week before the Autumn statement

    The triple lock was introduced by Cameron and Clegg and is supported by all parties including the SNP, evidenced by Blackford demanding Sunak confirmed it at the PMQs before the Autumn statement

    There is no point Labour supporters objecting to the triple lock when their leader is 100% committed to it
    As far as I can tell all Labour will do is change the guard and put up tax and the Wokery even more.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,022

    Sorry I am late, I am here for the interview about a job a twitter, have I found the right place?

    Are you prepared to work "hardcore" and spend 24 hours in the office ? If so we will do a poll of the staff here to see if you're in.
    Sounds like I will be reducing my current workload then...as I am in my office now working (well waiting for a model to finish training, then back to it).
    For some reason there I suddenly imagined you were waiting for a supermodel to come into the office to finish your training and liven up a dull Saturday, but my wife is tsking and telling me off from across the room for immoral thoughts.
    Reading it without seeing the name, I thought it was @Leon (is he still Leon?) waiting for BJ.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,067

    HYUFD said:

    NEW. Republican primary poll: Trump gets a bounce from the announcement of his candidacy last week and despite his re election DeSantis still trails well behind him with GOP primary voters

    Trump 46%
    DeSantis 28%
    Pence 7%
    Cruz 3%
    Haley 2%


    Harvard-Harris Nov 18
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1593909258013544448?s=20&t=irQOF0RQ9yxigrQBLqieuw

    Apparently when Biden saw that poll his smile spread so wide he had to have his face sown back together again.
    What going to happen first? DeSantis being selected as Republican Nominee or Betfair paying out on the 2020 House election results?
  • For Leon, Francis, and all fans of steam in the office :

    https://www.techinasia.com/ftx-fueled-drugs-sex-poker-fraud
  • DrkBDrkB Posts: 68

    I think this is a question to which the answer is "No". In order for the Tories to do particularly badly, the Lib Dems need to be doing a bit better than they are doing at the moment. Harold Wilson reckoned that for Labour to do well in his day, the Liberals had to be over 10%, to hoover up enough Tory votes to give Labour the edge. That's not happening at the moment, and if an election was to be held soon there would be a swingback to the Conservatives - see the columnists in the Times, all rowing furiously behind Sunak & Co.

    If the Tories were under 28%, and the Lib Dems over 12%, then the results could be brutal for the Conservatives, but at the moment the old reality is still in play - for the Conservative Party to be obliterated it will need to be buried at the crossroads with a stake through it's cold, unforgiving heart.

    The Conservatives might not do very well at the next election simply because it might not get many votes.

    What on earth is its appeal to people like me, and others who aren't pensioners?
    The first PM of asian origin perhaps...
  • DrkBDrkB Posts: 68
    Amazing to think our first game in the world cup is against russias major supplier of drones iran....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,229
    Leon said:

    Here we go


    Voting Intention:

    LAB: 47% (+5)
    CON: 21% (=)
    LDM: 10% (+1)
    GRN: 7% (-2)
    REF: 6% (-2)
    SNP: 5% (=)

    Via @PeoplePolling, On 18 November,
    Changes w/ 9 November.

    With luck and good work I am confident they can get the Lab lead down to around 15% by election day.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,229

    EPG said:

    Ratters said:

    The trouble with being the party of pensioners and unproductive wealth (e.g. housing) is that those are both highly unproductive parts of the economy.

    During the Tories time in power they have:

    - Cut spending on most things other than pensions and healthcare (of course mostly for elderly people) to the bone.
    - Retained subsidies (e.g. on fuel next year, winter fuel allowance etc) for retirees
    - Maintained pensions in real terms while workers get a pay cut
    - Increased taxes significantly on working people

    All of this results in a drag on economic growth and further falls in living standards for those in work. All while having no grand strategy to encourage investment and growth.

    Pensioners may vote but you can't win an election with them alone. The Tories deserve to be tossed out of power for at least a decade.

    To be fair, in a country with 70% home ownership, it's hard to work out how to democratically shaft such a large majority. There are no signs Starmer will.
    Starmer and labour demanded the retention of the triple lock in the HOC the week before the Autumn statement

    The triple lock was introduced by Cameron and Clegg and is supported by all parties including the SNP, evidenced by Blackford demanding Sunak confirmed it at the PMQs before the Autumn statement

    There is no point Labour supporters objecting to the triple lock when their leader is 100% committed to it
    As far as I can tell all Labour will do is change the guard and put up tax and the Wokery even more.
    It's in the Labour draft manifesto:

    A new, independent Woke bookshop in every town and village throughout the land.
    :)
    Paid for with generous grants funded by taxation on the middle class.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,438
    DrkB said:

    Think trumps strategy may be to allow the likes of kari lake to push the election denial stuff. The more he can discredit the system the better for him

    Nah, he was full on that the election was stolen the other day. He really believes that he cannot be a loser.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,229
    edited November 19
    DrkB said:

    HYUFD said:

    NEW. Republican primary poll: Trump gets a bounce from the announcement of his candidacy last week and despite his re election DeSantis still trails well behind him with GOP primary voters

    Trump 46%
    DeSantis 28%
    Pence 7%
    Cruz 3%
    Haley 2%


    Harvard-Harris Nov 18
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1593909258013544448?s=20&t=irQOF0RQ9yxigrQBLqieuw

    Apparently when Biden saw that poll his smile spread so wide he had to have his face sown back together again.
    A trump kari lake ticket could be interesting....a guy who tried to instigate a coup together with a batshit crazy election denier
    He doesn't need a female Trump to deny elections.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 606

    EPG said:

    Ratters said:

    The trouble with being the party of pensioners and unproductive wealth (e.g. housing) is that those are both highly unproductive parts of the economy.

    During the Tories time in power they have:

    - Cut spending on most things other than pensions and healthcare (of course mostly for elderly people) to the bone.
    - Retained subsidies (e.g. on fuel next year, winter fuel allowance etc) for retirees
    - Maintained pensions in real terms while workers get a pay cut
    - Increased taxes significantly on working people

    All of this results in a drag on economic growth and further falls in living standards for those in work. All while having no grand strategy to encourage investment and growth.

    Pensioners may vote but you can't win an election with them alone. The Tories deserve to be tossed out of power for at least a decade.

    To be fair, in a country with 70% home ownership, it's hard to work out how to democratically shaft such a large majority. There are no signs Starmer will.
    Starmer and labour demanded the retention of the triple lock in the HOC the week before the Autumn statement

    The triple lock was introduced by Cameron and Clegg and is supported by all parties including the SNP, evidenced by Blackford demanding Sunak confirmed it at the PMQs before the Autumn statement

    There is no point Labour supporters objecting to the triple lock when their leader is 100% committed to it
    As far as I can tell all Labour will do is change the guard and put up tax and the Wokery even more.
    It's in the Labour draft manifesto:

    A new, independent Woke bookshop in every town and village throughout the land.
    :)
    Brought to mind https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/revealed-how-a-once-thriving-northern-town-was-ruined-by-wokeness-20220715223346

    "THE South Yorkshire town of Cleckburton used to be a thriving industrial hub. Today its shops are boarded up and there are no jobs, hopes or prospects for its inhabitants.

    The reason? The onslaught of wokeness, a process which began in the late 1970s and has since laid waste to the town."
  • DrkBDrkB Posts: 68
    Russians playing hardball again

    According to unconfirmed sources, Russia has given Ukraine an ultimatum. Either return to the negotiating table by the end of November, or Ukraine’s entire electricity grid will be decimated

    https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1593954772859625474?t=tVB_LyX1JWCHpB8yQMVRDg&s=19
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,067
    DrkB said:

    I think this is a question to which the answer is "No". In order for the Tories to do particularly badly, the Lib Dems need to be doing a bit better than they are doing at the moment. Harold Wilson reckoned that for Labour to do well in his day, the Liberals had to be over 10%, to hoover up enough Tory votes to give Labour the edge. That's not happening at the moment, and if an election was to be held soon there would be a swingback to the Conservatives - see the columnists in the Times, all rowing furiously behind Sunak & Co.

    If the Tories were under 28%, and the Lib Dems over 12%, then the results could be brutal for the Conservatives, but at the moment the old reality is still in play - for the Conservative Party to be obliterated it will need to be buried at the crossroads with a stake through it's cold, unforgiving heart.

    The Conservatives might not do very well at the next election simply because it might not get many votes.

    What on earth is its appeal to people like me, and others who aren't pensioners?
    The first PM of asian origin perhaps...
    What a stupid thing to say.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,438

    EPG said:

    Ratters said:

    The trouble with being the party of pensioners and unproductive wealth (e.g. housing) is that those are both highly unproductive parts of the economy.

    During the Tories time in power they have:

    - Cut spending on most things other than pensions and healthcare (of course mostly for elderly people) to the bone.
    - Retained subsidies (e.g. on fuel next year, winter fuel allowance etc) for retirees
    - Maintained pensions in real terms while workers get a pay cut
    - Increased taxes significantly on working people

    All of this results in a drag on economic growth and further falls in living standards for those in work. All while having no grand strategy to encourage investment and growth.

    Pensioners may vote but you can't win an election with them alone. The Tories deserve to be tossed out of power for at least a decade.

    To be fair, in a country with 70% home ownership, it's hard to work out how to democratically shaft such a large majority. There are no signs Starmer will.
    Starmer and labour demanded the retention of the triple lock in the HOC the week before the Autumn statement

    The triple lock was introduced by Cameron and Clegg and is supported by all parties including the SNP, evidenced by Blackford demanding Sunak confirmed it at the PMQs before the Autumn statement

    There is no point Labour supporters objecting to the triple lock when their leader is 100% committed to it
    As far as I can tell all Labour will do is change the guard and put up tax and the Wokery even more.
    It's in the Labour draft manifesto:

    A new, independent Woke bookshop in every town and village throughout the land.
    :)
    See you there, make mine a vegan latte!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,067

    EPG said:

    Ratters said:

    The trouble with being the party of pensioners and unproductive wealth (e.g. housing) is that those are both highly unproductive parts of the economy.

    During the Tories time in power they have:

    - Cut spending on most things other than pensions and healthcare (of course mostly for elderly people) to the bone.
    - Retained subsidies (e.g. on fuel next year, winter fuel allowance etc) for retirees
    - Maintained pensions in real terms while workers get a pay cut
    - Increased taxes significantly on working people

    All of this results in a drag on economic growth and further falls in living standards for those in work. All while having no grand strategy to encourage investment and growth.

    Pensioners may vote but you can't win an election with them alone. The Tories deserve to be tossed out of power for at least a decade.

    To be fair, in a country with 70% home ownership, it's hard to work out how to democratically shaft such a large majority. There are no signs Starmer will.
    Starmer and labour demanded the retention of the triple lock in the HOC the week before the Autumn statement

    The triple lock was introduced by Cameron and Clegg and is supported by all parties including the SNP, evidenced by Blackford demanding Sunak confirmed it at the PMQs before the Autumn statement

    There is no point Labour supporters objecting to the triple lock when their leader is 100% committed to it
    As far as I can tell all Labour will do is change the guard and put up tax and the Wokery even more.
    It's in the Labour draft manifesto:

    A new, independent Woke bookshop in every town and village throughout the land.
    :)
    They will remove all the (limited) brakes the Conservatives have currently applied.

    In the longer term it provides a route back for them as there will eventually be a backlash.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,468
    edited November 19
    DrkB said:

    Russians playing hardball again

    According to unconfirmed sources, Russia has given Ukraine an ultimatum. Either return to the negotiating table by the end of November, or Ukraine’s entire electricity grid will be decimated

    https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1593954772859625474?t=tVB_LyX1JWCHpB8yQMVRDg&s=19

    According to unconfirmed sources, the full stop is a thing of the past
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,363
    MattW said:

    3rd. Like one of the parties in Ashfield.

    The header is correct to ask questions. At present there are hardly any answers, I think.

    And from the PB Dyspeptic Euro-media Obsessive Correspondent, a very interesting report from France24 on how the French energy mix is under pressure and changing.

    Interesting stuff in particular about floating solar on reservoirs.

    https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/down-to-earth/20221118-france-s-energy-mix-in-turmoil

    (This morning we are exporting just under £1m per hour of electricity to France)

    France is currently demonstrating that nuclear is not quite as reliable as is usually assumed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,438

    DrkB said:

    I think this is a question to which the answer is "No". In order for the Tories to do particularly badly, the Lib Dems need to be doing a bit better than they are doing at the moment. Harold Wilson reckoned that for Labour to do well in his day, the Liberals had to be over 10%, to hoover up enough Tory votes to give Labour the edge. That's not happening at the moment, and if an election was to be held soon there would be a swingback to the Conservatives - see the columnists in the Times, all rowing furiously behind Sunak & Co.

    If the Tories were under 28%, and the Lib Dems over 12%, then the results could be brutal for the Conservatives, but at the moment the old reality is still in play - for the Conservative Party to be obliterated it will need to be buried at the crossroads with a stake through it's cold, unforgiving heart.

    The Conservatives might not do very well at the next election simply because it might not get many votes.

    What on earth is its appeal to people like me, and others who aren't pensioners?
    The first PM of asian origin perhaps...
    What a stupid thing to say.
    It will get some votes in Leicester. Not enough to make a difference to any of the 3 city seats.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,438
    DrkB said:

    Russians playing hardball again

    According to unconfirmed sources, Russia has given Ukraine an ultimatum. Either return to the negotiating table by the end of November, or Ukraine’s entire electricity grid will be decimated

    https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1593954772859625474?t=tVB_LyX1JWCHpB8yQMVRDg&s=19

    Like the V1 and V2 brought Churchill to the negotiating table in 1945?
  • Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    It does feel like 95/96 politically (although in no other way) and you can definitely see a Labour landslide. Bet Starmer is feeling this too. He's going all in with the Blair playbook and the goal is a similar result. Expect a solid but cautious manifesto, no risks to the big win, then in power sticking to tory fiscal plans for a year or so, also something on the Constitution (FFA for Scotland?), and maybe towards the end of the first term a muscular foreign policy initiative with a military aspect to it.

    There are several ways in which the situation is worse than 95/96 for the Tories. The main one is the sense in which they appear not to have a fucking clue. Making mistakes is one thing, but the whole Truss/Kwarteng, then do the exact opposite with Sunak/Hunt within less than two months, thing is on a completely different level.

    The fact that the Tory party put Truss/Kwarteng in charge, and then they were so bad that they were replaced in just 49 days is you wouldn't trust them to boil an egg. There's still a couple of years for the voters to decide they don't trust the Tories to be the Opposition, and somehow manage to put the Lib Dems, or Farage's latest publicity vehicle in the running for that instead.

    49 days.
    Yes. Quite so. John Major’s government - after the ERM debacle - was actually pretty competent. Full of infighting and euro wars, but they knew what they wanted - low tax, high growth - and aimed for it, and got it

    This now is worse by orders of magnitude. “Hi we’re the Tories and we’ve been in power 12 years and we’re successfully delivering the worst recession, the worst fall in living standards and the highest taxes since the signing of Magna Carta. Plus tons of immigration we claim we don’t want. And chaos. Endless chaos. Vote for us in 2024”
    Another important thing Major had that Sunak doesn't: time.

    The Conservatives were never likely to fully recover from Black Wednesday without the pugative effects of Opposition. But Major did slowly, painfully claw back some support from 1995 to 1997 by doing a pretty decent job of running the country. And it was a solid Cabinet- the petty sleaze was mostly much further down the food chain.

    Sunak has two years until the next election. If it hasn't happened by mid November 2024, it's to get another Chrstmas at Chequers and wave two fingers at the electorate (only politely). And this time round, the pain has barely begun.

    It's why there was a deep longing for Truss to have a plan to avoid austerity 2.0, becuase everyone knows that it will be rubbish for everyone. Unfortunately, her plan was like those children's drawings of Mummy and Daddy where they have a sort of face and legs and nothing else. And her time in office has left the UK noticeably further from Good Times than it was before.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859
    DrkB said:

    Russians playing hardball again

    According to unconfirmed sources, Russia has given Ukraine an ultimatum. Either return to the negotiating table by the end of November, or Ukraine’s entire electricity grid will be decimated

    https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1593954772859625474?t=tVB_LyX1JWCHpB8yQMVRDg&s=19

    Zelensky nominates HIMARS, NLAW and Stinger, as his negotiators.
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