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Could the Tories could be heading for a worse result than 1997? – politicalbetting.com

It might have been forgotten but the Labour GB vote lead in the 1997 General Election when Tony Blair won his landslide was just 12%.
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The header is correct to ask questions. At present there are hardly any answers, I think.
And from the PB Dyspeptic Euro-media Obsessive Correspondent, a very interesting report from France24 on how the French energy mix is under pressure and changing.
Interesting stuff in particular about floating solar on reservoirs.
https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/down-to-earth/20221118-france-s-energy-mix-in-turmoil
(This morning we are exporting just under £1m per hour of electricity to France)
Sunak is heading for close to Brown's 2010 vote at present ie about 29% with Mori or a bit below. However in most polls he is still doing better than the early 20s rating Truss left him with
https://eurasiantimes.com/ukraine-russias-nuclear-capable-kh-55-missile/
Russia apparently used a cruise missile with a dummy nuclear warhead against Ukraine.
If the Tories were under 28%, and the Lib Dems over 12%, then the results could be brutal for the Conservatives, but at the moment the old reality is still in play - for the Conservative Party to be obliterated it will need to be buried at the crossroads with a stake through it's cold, unforgiving heart.
As the Canadian Reform party replaced the Canadian Tories in 1993, Le Pen's party have replaced Les Republicains in France and Brothers of Italy have replaced Forza Italia in Italy
The only question - barring black swans - is whether it will be a massive landslide defeat, or even worse: closer to extinction. Under 100 seats
At the moment I suspect the latter
Had an interesting chat with my left wing friend yesterday. He thought Brexit could well be behind much of our economic malaise but he still supported it even if it would make us poorer. The EU is creating some nasty governments in its member states. We could solve a lot of our problems if we built a more Scandanavian-style state in his view. Introduced some wealth taxes etc.
He was also surprisingly hostile to Starmer. Angry at how he had treated Jeremy Corbyn and how so many of Corbyn's critics refused to directly call him an anti-semite. Why shouldn't people feel strongly about what Israel is doing to the Palestinians?
Also I hadn't realised Augustus Carp had returned. There's a blast from the past.
How sad. How terribly sad
I'd expect things to settle down now to a steady mid-to-high twenties, subject to how well SuHunt perform and whatever assistance Labour give them (always a decent possibility).
If I were a Tory I would want a result that permits the Augean stables to be cleaned out but without threatening extinction. The sweet spot would be between 75 and 150 seats. That's a perfectly realistic outcome but the way FPTP works it would be easy to miss on either side.
Good luck, mate.
The Tory Party either needs to become that or disband and make way for a party that can. We have pandered to 93 year olds for far too long.
And of course, there is one major new growth area in which Britain has been powering ahead. In the last few months, we have dramatically increased the number of ex-prime ministers contributing to our economy in the UK.…
One other thing, of course, that that Ian mentioned is the importance of green growth. It is sometimes the case, in some of the more simplistic commentary that you see about politics – and by simplistic commentary, I do not mean in the pages of The Daily Telegraph – that you see a tension being held up between a move towards net zero, and environmental enhancement and economic growth overall.
https://capx.co/unlocking-the-change-this-country-needs/
As for beyond I do hope Starmer is able to deal with the single market issue and reestablish trade with the EU
Indeed I would hope that that work is ongoing now with Sunak and Hunt who must realise it is the path to growth but I do not expect the UK to rejoin
As a conservative since I first voted, with the exception of Blair in 97 and 01, I am angry with the ERG and the right who have effectively destroyed the one nation conservative I support
I will continue to support Sunak and Hunt but am content to see Starmer in no 10 in 2024
The economy then becomes Labour's problem and offers the chance for the Tories to revive in opposition
Trump 46%
DeSantis 28%
Pence 7%
Cruz 3%
Haley 2%
Harvard-Harris Nov 18
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1593909258013544448?s=20&t=irQOF0RQ9yxigrQBLqieuw
I'd personally favour a cross-party agreement for PR, and four new parties on the right and left, although this isn't going to happen anytime too easily or too soon, especially with Labour doing so well at the moment too.
Yes it could be worse than 1997 but there is a long way to go. Some One Nation Tory voters I know are beginning to be more agnostic about switching to Labour than they were under Boris and Truss.
And can Labour hold their discipline for 2 years and produce a non suicidal manifesto? (Can anyone?)
And can Labour find a non unicorn post Brexit policy that is any good. No-one else has.
I do wonder what happens to the solar when the reservoir is empty in a droight, though.
In other news, our reservoirs seem to be filling up rapidly, with all the *&^%^%$ rain. My local ones are now way ahead of 2018.
There are of course many other things, cough housing cough, that we could fix to boost the economy. At the moment no-one seems to have any ideas.
The uniquely awful disaster of Liz Truss' time as PM is almost bound to lead to a uniquely awful election defeat for the Tories - how could it not?
During the Tories time in power they have:
- Cut spending on most things other than pensions and healthcare (of course mostly for elderly people) to the bone.
- Retained subsidies (e.g. on fuel next year, winter fuel allowance etc) for retirees
- Maintained pensions in real terms while workers get a pay cut
- Increased taxes significantly on working people
All of this results in a drag on economic growth and further falls in living standards for those in work. All while having no grand strategy to encourage investment and growth.
Pensioners may vote but you can't win an election with them alone. The Tories deserve to be tossed out of power for at least a decade.
It’s like the Tories sat down and meticulously planned a way they could dismay or enrage everyone inclined to vote for them
Apart from pensioners and non-doms. That’s who they’re left with
Their vote share could go under 25%. And it’s around 25% that they enter the extinction zone
I'm anxiously waiting to see if, overnight, I metamorphise into a Tory voter. No sign of it yet, though.
The triple lock was introduced by Cameron and Clegg and is supported by all parties including the SNP, evidenced by Blackford demanding Sunak confirmed it at the PMQs before the Autumn statement
There is no point Labour supporters objecting to the triple lock when their leader is 100% committed to it
Pay rises way below inflation for nurses, teachers etc shafts ordinary workers.
Pensioners all protected nicely.
Matty desperately trying to explain it away
Remember? Thingy. Posh sounding chap, the one who wasn't Boris. Huskies. Lost the referendum and ended up in a shepherd's hut.
What's he doing now? And will it take three election defeats for the party to consider that path again?
If Truss had clung on and just 'existed' with no disasters (I agree that's a big if), I can't really see how her polling wouldn't be on a par with what we're seeing today.
He returned the calls and asked Johnson if he was resigning. “No Mikey mate, I’m afraid you are. I’m going to have to ask you to step back from your role as levelling-up secretary. I’m reconstructing the government.”
In shock, Gove replied: “So you’re not resigning?” Johnson said: “No, you are.”
https://www.ft.com/content/e6d6c253-45a1-4c53-9621-405e2e1507e6
Furthermore the IMF approved the Autumn statement yesterday
This matters for many reasons including people's mortgages
I have consistently rejected the ERG and hope that for the county's sake Sunak and Hunt continue to put hard decisions first no matter the electoral consequences
Voting Intention:
LAB: 47% (+5)
CON: 21% (=)
LDM: 10% (+1)
GRN: 7% (-2)
REF: 6% (-2)
SNP: 5% (=)
Via @PeoplePolling, On 18 November,
Changes w/ 9 November.
Labour: 499
Tories: 47
SNP are official opposition on 52 seats
It’s interesting how they left the final decision to the horse, who stamped their hoof, felt it a touch too hard and said neigh.
Tories have done and decided: yep, that works, copy that
The fact that the Tory party put Truss/Kwarteng in charge, and then they were so bad that they were replaced in just 49 days is you wouldn't trust them to boil an egg. There's still a couple of years for the voters to decide they don't trust the Tories to be the Opposition, and somehow manage to put the Lib Dems, or Farage's latest publicity vehicle in the running for that instead.
49 days.
This now is worse by orders of magnitude. “Hi we’re the Tories and we’ve been in power 12 years and we’re successfully delivering the worst recession, the worst fall in living standards and the highest taxes since the signing of Magna Carta. Plus tons of immigration we claim we don’t want. And chaos. Endless chaos. Vote for us in 2024”
What on earth is its appeal to people like me, and others who aren't pensioners?
No wait. They won’t
They will counter Wokeness and -
Nope. They won’t do that
They will cut taxes and -
Nah
The answer is: zero. The Tories have zero appeal to anyone under 60
https://www.techinasia.com/ftx-fueled-drugs-sex-poker-fraud
So this is my first time following Malaysia, having just read Billion Dollar Whale about the 1MDB scandal.
Voting closed 10am UK time and results are starting to trickle in.
Flying pretty blind but starting to get to grips with it, it feels a bit like a smaller version of India, with lots of parties grouped into larger alliances, and like India/UK/Canada etc it's FPTP.
Just in case anyone else is interested
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Malaysian_general_election
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-election-ge15-polling-day-results-live-3080246
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLu0wfp6bgw
https://live.malaysiakini.com/ge15/en/
https://pru.astroawani.com/
https://www.straitstimes.com/multimedia/graphics/2022/11/malaysia-ge-2022-live-election-results/index.html
Thanks!
DC
A new, independent Woke bookshop in every town and village throughout the land.
"THE South Yorkshire town of Cleckburton used to be a thriving industrial hub. Today its shops are boarded up and there are no jobs, hopes or prospects for its inhabitants.
The reason? The onslaught of wokeness, a process which began in the late 1970s and has since laid waste to the town."
According to unconfirmed sources, Russia has given Ukraine an ultimatum. Either return to the negotiating table by the end of November, or Ukraine’s entire electricity grid will be decimated
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1593954772859625474?t=tVB_LyX1JWCHpB8yQMVRDg&s=19
In the longer term it provides a route back for them as there will eventually be a backlash.
The Conservatives were never likely to fully recover from Black Wednesday without the pugative effects of Opposition. But Major did slowly, painfully claw back some support from 1995 to 1997 by doing a pretty decent job of running the country. And it was a solid Cabinet- the petty sleaze was mostly much further down the food chain.
Sunak has two years until the next election. If it hasn't happened by mid November 2024, it's to get another Chrstmas at Chequers and wave two fingers at the electorate (only politely). And this time round, the pain has barely begun.
It's why there was a deep longing for Truss to have a plan to avoid austerity 2.0, becuase everyone knows that it will be rubbish for everyone. Unfortunately, her plan was like those children's drawings of Mummy and Daddy where they have a sort of face and legs and nothing else. And her time in office has left the UK noticeably further from Good Times than it was before.