I will say it's also quite depressing that people think the answer to all our economic problems is to rejoin the EU. I suspect the economy would grow faster but per capita is less clear as are the distributional effects. And there may be some small economic benefits from divergence. The bigger problem is no-one seems to have any answers for how to turn us from a low wage, low investment, low productivity economy into a high wage, high investment, high productivity economy. The obsession about monetary policy when inflation is largely due to China's covid policy and Putin turning off the gas is a case in point.
Even today you have members of the MPC saying that the constrained labour market is inflationary, due to Brexit. Well the solution isn't cheap labour as that ain't on the cards anymore, it's investment in skills, education, automation, and the like. This should have been blindingly obvious but you still get loads of business leaders banging the immigration drum. Maybe we need to start with importing some capable management first?
Sooner or later even British management is going to have to accept that the days when our supply of labour was almost infinitely elastic are at an end and if they want to grow their businesses they are going to have to invest in them instead making better use of the labour that they do have.
Even EFTA would be a tough to sell step, as only a third of people even want to be in the Single Market. That's why these polls are pretty much worthless, when people are asked in detail what they want it sure as hell isn't the EU that exists today.
The day Ukraine joins will be a miserable one for the Brexit diehards
As I understand it Ukraine are part of Macron's outer perimeter group and if it works out not only Ukraine but also UK, Norway, Iceland and others will be part of the new treaty
Shouldn't we be seeing what this new grouping does and how it is run first?
Going from the Wikipedia page,
The aim of the EPC is to provide a policy coordination platform for European countries across the continent and to foster political dialogue and cooperation in order to address issues of common interest, so as to strengthen the security, stability and prosperity of the European continent.
None of which is bad, but it's also got little to do with the day-to-day practicalities for people trying to do business and live lives across the UK's borders with its neighbours. We had a way of dealing with those- that was literally what the Single Market was for. But at some point we decided we didn't want to be involved in that.
The leaked budget, and @Casino_Royale’s response, is much more interesting.
I will be seriously ticked off if the weight of additional taxation once again falls almost exclusively on those who have to work for a living. It really is absolutely essential that those with the highest disposable incomes in our society, who are usually the retired with pensions and mortgages paid off, contribute substantially to the rebalancing that is required.
I will also be searching for policies designed to promote growth, specifically additional tax reliefs for investment and training and closer links between our excellent Universities and business.
You won't find much growth promotion in a 1% rise in the education budget.
I always liked the comment that if you think education is expensive try ignorance. It applies here in spades.
It’s sad that people post this rubbish. The vast majority of English people are just like the vast majority of Scots - ordinary, decent and civilised folk. The nation as a whole is compassionate, caring and tries to welcome people. I suspect what raging leftie Margolyes means is England has. Tory government while Scotland doesn’t, so she spouts her rubbish.
Sooner or later even British management is going to have to accept that the days when our supply of labour was almost infinitely elastic are at an end and if they want to grow their businesses they are going to have to invest in them instead making better use of the labour that they do have.
The generally rubbish management that infests most UK businesses is probably job number one for sorting out by any government that is serious about growth.
The media keep telling everyone that multiple things that really have nothing to do with Brexit have been caused by it. Obviously, as new Labour established long ago, if you say things often enough people will eventually believe it.
Well Brexiteers never blamed the EU for multiple things that were nothing to do with the EU.
I find Brexiteers blaming the EU for Brexit the most annoying thing.
Time for Stamer to get on this horse before it gallops away. I can't see any downside and a considerable upside. Not least that it's now apparent to even the dimmest Leaver that they made a ruinous decision. It's now common knowledge and has even ffound it's way to Hartlepool. We've been led by donkeys but guess what? Those donkeys are the current government and they're taking us on a one way ticket to Palookaville
The leaked budget, and @Casino_Royale’s response, is much more interesting.
I will be seriously ticked off if the weight of additional taxation once again falls almost exclusively on those who have to work for a living. It really is absolutely essential that those with the highest disposable incomes in our society, who are usually the retired with pensions and mortgages paid off, contribute substantially to the rebalancing that is required.
I will also be searching for policies designed to promote growth, specifically additional tax reliefs for investment and training and closer links between our excellent Universities and business.
Me too, but I’m afraid Rishi is ideologically opposed to almost anything you and I would want to see, and Treasury’s insistence on fiscal contraction is set to doom the country to prolonging the recession even if Rishi suddenly discovers this thing called endogenous growth theory.
I never expected Britain to rejoin but now I think it’s 50/50 that it will, although of course not for many years.
Brexit was an epochal act of economic and political self-sabotage. Personally I suspect the economic damage is under-estimated, and the government is “lucky” that first Covid and then Ukraine has deranged the economic statistics.
I hope to return to the UK one day. I still have a glimmer of optimism that the country will rediscover its gift for sober, pragmatic governance and unshowy prosperity.
A sober and pragmatic Government could manage Brexit well, and be successful outside the EU. The Brexit shitshow depends on Governments being of poor quality. That's the problem for your side. As soon as things start to be managed soberly and pragmatically, rejoin is gone. As they say in Scotland, it's on a shoogly peg.
Brexit can only be managed well by rendering it Brexit in name only. The other alternative is full on market fundamentalism - but as Truss discovered, even the markets don't like that. What we have now, underfunded European social democracy without the single market, isn't a growth model.
I don't think we need a 'plan B' when we haven't yet had plan A. For me it's just about creating a post-EU (but friendly to the EU) state. At the moment we don't have that.
Even EFTA would be a tough to sell step, as only a third of people even want to be in the Single Market. That's why these polls are pretty much worthless, when people are asked in detail what they want it sure as hell isn't the EU that exists today.
The day Ukraine joins will be a miserable one for the Brexit diehards
As I understand it Ukraine are part of Macron's outer perimeter group and if it works out not only Ukraine but also UK, Norway, Iceland and others will be part of the new treaty
Shouldn't we be seeing what this new grouping does and how it is run first?
Going from the Wikipedia page,
The aim of the EPC is to provide a policy coordination platform for European countries across the continent and to foster political dialogue and cooperation in order to address issues of common interest, so as to strengthen the security, stability and prosperity of the European continent.
None of which is bad, but it's also got little to do with the day-to-day practicalities for people trying to do business and live lives across the UK's borders with its neighbours. We had a way of dealing with those- that was literally what the Single Market was for. But at some point we decided we didn't want to be involved in that.
Trade is common interest and strengthens prosperity
In my opinion, those who rule Britain, the civil service, quangocracy, and various (though not all) influential politicians, want to keep Britain from properly 'Brexiting' for a variety of reasons. By properly Brexiting, I mean establishing effective control of our borders, arrangements to conduct trade with the EU in a satisfactory manner, diverging from EU rules when it is in the national interest to do so (eg big changes to VAT), and laying aside long term strategical EU projects that don't make sense in the long term post-Brexit, which would include HS2 (likely to survive again despite there being no fucking reason for it), and electric interconnectors to Germany.
The dual reasons for the stalling are pretty clear - to discredit Brexit as a concept, coralling a worn down populace into a process that ends in rejoining, and to ensure that in the interim, we have not diverged in any way that would impede the rejoining process.
This campaign isn't working terribly badly at the moment, but it does have limited road. As well as discrediting Brexit, it also makes the Government of the day look stupid and incompetent, which with all the other stupidity and incompetence at the moment, is sort of hidden, but at some point, the demand to sort things out becomes deafening, and this will happen sooner than people can be softened up to think the answer is 'rejoin', not 'get a fucking grip'. We also see Reform UK on the rise again, and with good reason - Brexit hasn't been 'done', and their case against the main parties is strong. The Government will start to get things sorted, and in that sorting there will be a natural pull to divergence from the EU.
The problem with Communism is that it hasn’t been implemented properly yet…
Britain being an independent nation was implemented and operated successfully for around 300 years. The position that this cannot now be the case has no basis in logic. You believe it for emotional reasons.
The media keep telling everyone that multiple things that really have nothing to do with Brexit have been caused by it. Obviously, as new Labour established long ago, if you say things often enough people will eventually believe it.
Well Brexiteers never blamed the EU for multiple things that were nothing to do with the EU.
I find Brexiteers blaming the EU for Brexit the most annoying thing.
Time for Stamer to get on this horse before it gallops away. I can't see any downside and a considerable upside. Not least that it's now apparent to even the dimmest Leaver that they made a ruinous decision. It's now common knowledge and has even ffound it's way to Hartlepool. We've been led by donkeys but guess what? Those donkeys are the current government and they're taking us on a one way ticket to Palookaville
He has no rush. He can take a win and then take steps closer and closer and see the reaction, or lack thereof.
I will say it's also quite depressing that people think the answer to all our economic problems is to rejoin the EU. I suspect the economy would grow faster but per capita is less clear as are the distributional effects. And there may be some small economic benefits from divergence. The bigger problem is no-one seems to have any answers for how to turn us from a low wage, low investment, low productivity economy into a high wage, high investment, high productivity economy. The obsession about monetary policy when inflation is largely due to China's covid policy and Putin turning off the gas is a case in point.
Even today you have members of the MPC saying that the constrained labour market is inflationary, due to Brexit. Well the solution isn't cheap labour as that ain't on the cards anymore, it's investment in skills, education, automation, and the like. This should have been blindingly obvious but you still get loads of business leaders banging the immigration drum. Maybe we need to start with importing some capable management first?
Sooner or later even British management is going to have to accept that the days when our supply of labour was almost infinitely elastic are at an end and if they want to grow their businesses they are going to have to invest in them instead making better use of the labour that they do have.
They can, and are investing in more benign environments than the UK, unfortunately. Particularly since Brexit, to stay on topic.
So, how much of a budget anti-bounce are we expecting for the Tories?
I'm thinking an average drop of around 5 points.
Really not sure but there is a reasonable argument that the next GE is going to be decided by the response to tomorrow's budget, one way or the other. Will the Tories pull off a 1990/91 and 1992 result again? Extremely unlikely but not impossible.
The leaked budget, and @Casino_Royale’s response, is much more interesting.
I will be seriously ticked off if the weight of additional taxation once again falls almost exclusively on those who have to work for a living. It really is absolutely essential that those with the highest disposable incomes in our society, who are usually the retired with pensions and mortgages paid off, contribute substantially to the rebalancing that is required.
I will also be searching for policies designed to promote growth, specifically additional tax reliefs for investment and training and closer links between our excellent Universities and business.
Me too, but I’m afraid Rishi is ideologically opposed to almost anything you and I would want to see, and Treasury’s insistence on fiscal contraction is set to doom the country to prolonging the recession even if Rishi suddenly discovers this thing called endogenous growth theory.
I don't want to rake up the past too much, but both DavidL and Casino Royale were all guns blazing for Rishi, when it was absolutely clear from day dot that this is what he would do.
Re; an anti-bounce, if the Tories head back to 25% or similar, the Tory backbench natives may start to get restless again.
Not that there's much they can do this time ; a general election would mean most of them losing their seats, only simply rather than the possibility of slightly fewer of them t losing their seats in a couple of years' time. Sunak is the slick and cheerful manager of a difficult time, but somehow he's enjoying it.
The media keep telling everyone that multiple things that really have nothing to do with Brexit have been caused by it. Obviously, as new Labour established long ago, if you say things often enough people will eventually believe it.
Well if they believe it nine tenths of the job is done. What an absurd position for the principal opposition to find themselves in. An unpopular government have introduced an unpopular policy which the public (rightly ) believe has brought ruination upon the country and they haven't got the bottle to promise to change it. They could even use the Sunak special "We warned you it would be a disaster!"
When you get the leaders of such solid Conservative County Councils as Hampshire and Kent saying they may be forced to issue Section 114 notices this winter, you know there's a huge crisis building in local Government finance and service provision.
What do you suggest is the answer?
The underlying problem is that councils are being squeezed by the government from two directions. On one hand, they have no choice but to spend lots of money on social care- it's statutory, expensive and there's not much to be had in the way of efficiency gains. in Havering, that's now about 70% of the budget. On the other, their income is constrained by central government, due to the rules limiting Council Tax increases. Most councils have already stripped any functions that are remotely discretionary, and are heading for the point where their maximum possible income will be less than their minimum possible expenditure.
What I'd like to see is central govenment blooming well stumping up the cash for the things they are demanding. Then Council Tax levels can track the discretionary choices about spending, which would be better for democracy. The downside is that the taxes central government controls would have to go up.
Would doing something about social care at a national level (as in May and Johnson both tried before being howled down) sort this? Not sure, but it would help a lot.
They are definitely doing something tomorrow to allow councils to raise more council tax.
You didn’t mention inflation, I understood the councils are threatening bankruptcy due to the impact of inflation.
At breakfast tomorrow Sky will be reporting from a balloon business that’s closed due to the cost of inflation. Quite possibly.
The leaked budget, and @Casino_Royale’s response, is much more interesting.
I will be seriously ticked off if the weight of additional taxation once again falls almost exclusively on those who have to work for a living. It really is absolutely essential that those with the highest disposable incomes in our society, who are usually the retired with pensions and mortgages paid off, contribute substantially to the rebalancing that is required.
I will also be searching for policies designed to promote growth, specifically additional tax reliefs for investment and training and closer links between our excellent Universities and business.
Me too, but I’m afraid Rishi is ideologically opposed to almost anything you and I would want to see, and Treasury’s insistence on fiscal contraction is set to doom the country to prolonging the recession even if Rishi suddenly discovers this thing called endogenous growth theory.
I don't want to rake up the past too much, but both DavidL and Casino Royale were all guns blazing for Rishi, when it was absolutely clear from day dot that this is what he would do.
MaxPB too, and I think he has even less excuse.
The issue is that
Johnson < Truss < Sunak < The total renunciation of Brexit and the ousting of this ideologically bankrupt Tory government.
So, how much of a budget anti-bounce are we expecting for the Tories?
I'm thinking an average drop of around 5 points.
Really not sure but there is a reasonable argument that the next GE is going to be decided by the response to tomorrow's budget, one way or the other. Will the Tories pull off a 1990/91 and 1992 result again? Extremely unlikely but not impossible.
Equal John Major’s record of over 14 million votes? Not gonna happen.
So, how much of a budget anti-bounce are we expecting for the Tories?
I'm thinking an average drop of around 5 points.
Gosh, that would be a lot. That's not quite all of the Shiny Sunak Surge spent, but most of it. Conservatives back down to low 20's with winter to come. And short of a sucessful war (and I don't think Ukraine will do it, since our help has been real but at one remove) or a near-death experience for the Prime Minister, it's hard to imagine what turns things around enough for the Conservatives from here.
So, suppose it's May 2024 and the Conservatives are still on a one-way road to Oppositionsville. Do they take it on the chin or try AN Otherprimeminister as a last throw of the dice?
The leaked budget, and @Casino_Royale’s response, is much more interesting.
I will be seriously ticked off if the weight of additional taxation once again falls almost exclusively on those who have to work for a living. It really is absolutely essential that those with the highest disposable incomes in our society, who are usually the retired with pensions and mortgages paid off, contribute substantially to the rebalancing that is required.
I will also be searching for policies designed to promote growth, specifically additional tax reliefs for investment and training and closer links between our excellent Universities and business.
Me too, but I’m afraid Rishi is ideologically opposed to almost anything you and I would want to see, and Treasury’s insistence on fiscal contraction is set to doom the country to prolonging the recession even if Rishi suddenly discovers this thing called endogenous growth theory.
I don't want to rake up the past too much, but both DavidL and Casino Royale were all guns blazing for Rishi, when it was absolutely clear from day dot that this is what he would do.
David and Casino are über partisans: they support any donkey with a blue rosette.
Jeez. This is embarrassing for Sunak. The evidence given before the Treasury Committee this afternoon on the catastrophic damage inflicted on the UK economy by the hard Brexit the PM championed is absolutely damning! https://twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/1592920524854038528/video/1
The leaked budget, and @Casino_Royale’s response, is much more interesting.
I will be seriously ticked off if the weight of additional taxation once again falls almost exclusively on those who have to work for a living. It really is absolutely essential that those with the highest disposable incomes in our society, who are usually the retired with pensions and mortgages paid off, contribute substantially to the rebalancing that is required.
I will also be searching for policies designed to promote growth, specifically additional tax reliefs for investment and training and closer links between our excellent Universities and business.
Me too, but I’m afraid Rishi is ideologically opposed to almost anything you and I would want to see, and Treasury’s insistence on fiscal contraction is set to doom the country to prolonging the recession even if Rishi suddenly discovers this thing called endogenous growth theory.
I don't want to rake up the past too much, but both DavidL and Casino Royale were all guns blazing for Rishi, when it was absolutely clear from day dot that this is what he would do.
😫 is it only me left still with Trussnomics and not in the Anti Growth League?
The leaked budget, and @Casino_Royale’s response, is much more interesting.
I will be seriously ticked off if the weight of additional taxation once again falls almost exclusively on those who have to work for a living. It really is absolutely essential that those with the highest disposable incomes in our society, who are usually the retired with pensions and mortgages paid off, contribute substantially to the rebalancing that is required.
I will also be searching for policies designed to promote growth, specifically additional tax reliefs for investment and training and closer links between our excellent Universities and business.
Me too, but I’m afraid Rishi is ideologically opposed to almost anything you and I would want to see, and Treasury’s insistence on fiscal contraction is set to doom the country to prolonging the recession even if Rishi suddenly discovers this thing called endogenous growth theory.
I don't want to rake up the past too much, but both DavidL and Casino Royale were all guns blazing for Rishi, when it was absolutely clear from day dot that this is what he would do.
David and Casino are über partisans: they support any donkey with a blue rosette.
"The British had the entire European banking market at their feet, total control and they threw it all away.for their stupid Brexit. We are still laughing"
Time for Stamer to get on this horse before it gallops away. I can't see any downside and a considerable upside. Not least that it's now apparent to even the dimmest Leaver that they made a ruinous decision. It's now common knowledge and has even ffound it's way to Hartlepool. We've been led by donkeys but guess what? Those donkeys are the current government and they're taking us on a one way ticket to Palookaville
He has no rush. He can take a win and then take steps closer and closer and see the reaction, or lack thereof.
Look, I'd like us to still be in the EU as much as the next man, but spending 5 years renegotiating full entry would hole Labour under the water line on day 1. EFTA maybe, but again there are accommodations quicker to achieve than that. Get what we can in improved closer relations early doors, but don't allow it to dominate a primary domestic agenda.
I can't believe the Tories would even remotely entertain the possibility of yet another leader before the election. They'd become the laughing stock's laughing stock, both here and abroad, and that could also precipitate further economic troubles again.
In my opinion, those who rule Britain, the civil service, quangocracy, and various (though not all) influential politicians, want to keep Britain from properly 'Brexiting' for a variety of reasons. By properly Brexiting, I mean establishing effective control of our borders, arrangements to conduct trade with the EU in a satisfactory manner, diverging from EU rules when it is in the national interest to do so (eg big changes to VAT), and laying aside long term strategical EU projects that don't make sense in the long term post-Brexit, which would include HS2 (likely to survive again despite there being no fucking reason for it), and electric interconnectors to Germany.
The dual reasons for the stalling are pretty clear - to discredit Brexit as a concept, coralling a worn down populace into a process that ends in rejoining, and to ensure that in the interim, we have not diverged in any way that would impede the rejoining process.
This campaign isn't working terribly badly at the moment, but it does have limited road. As well as discrediting Brexit, it also makes the Government of the day look stupid and incompetent, which with all the other stupidity and incompetence at the moment, is sort of hidden, but at some point, the demand to sort things out becomes deafening, and this will happen sooner than people can be softened up to think the answer is 'rejoin', not 'get a fucking grip'. We also see Reform UK on the rise again, and with good reason - Brexit hasn't been 'done', and their case against the main parties is strong. The Government will start to get things sorted, and in that sorting there will be a natural pull to divergence from the EU.
The problem with Communism is that it hasn’t been implemented properly yet…
Britain being an independent nation was implemented and operated successfully for around 300 years. The position that this cannot now be the case has no basis in logic. You believe it for emotional reasons.
You comment has no logical basis, either.
I think it's a very logical position that a medium sized and relatively prosperous country can operate successfully alongside a large but peaceful trading bloc. Half the world, including several countries adjoining, or even surrounded by the EU, is in a similar position. 'There are problems' is a logical argument. 'It can't be done' isn't a tenable argument.
So it turned out that Brexit was a bad move, and that placing our future in the hands of Farage and Johnson wasn’t completely shrewd. 🤷♂️ it’s like we are slowly waking up from an all night bender.
I can't believe the Tories would even remotely entertain the possibility of yet another leader before the election. They'd become the laughing stock's laughing stock, both here and abroad, and that could also precipitate further economic troubles again.
Rishi it is, and Rishi will stay.
I don't see why anyone serious would want to change him, he's clearly competent, and much of the unpopularity of the government is due to things outside their control, like the pandemic and war in Ukraine. If circumstances were better Sunak would be doing just fine I think, as it is all he can really do is hope that in two years time the world is in a better place.
The leaked budget, and @Casino_Royale’s response, is much more interesting.
I will be seriously ticked off if the weight of additional taxation once again falls almost exclusively on those who have to work for a living. It really is absolutely essential that those with the highest disposable incomes in our society, who are usually the retired with pensions and mortgages paid off, contribute substantially to the rebalancing that is required.
I will also be searching for policies designed to promote growth, specifically additional tax reliefs for investment and training and closer links between our excellent Universities and business.
Me too, but I’m afraid Rishi is ideologically opposed to almost anything you and I would want to see, and Treasury’s insistence on fiscal contraction is set to doom the country to prolonging the recession even if Rishi suddenly discovers this thing called endogenous growth theory.
I don't want to rake up the past too much, but both DavidL and Casino Royale were all guns blazing for Rishi, when it was absolutely clear from day dot that this is what he would do.
David and Casino are über partisans: they support any donkey with a blue rosette.
Interesting from you, one of pb’s biggest ultras.
I’m not remotely partisan. I’m pro-Scottish. My dearest wish is to make the SNP defunct.
I can't believe the Tories would even remotely entertain the possibility of yet another leader before the election. They'd become the laughing stock's laughing stock, both here and abroad, and that could also precipitate further economic troubles again.
Rishi it is, and Rishi will stay.
I don't see why anyone serious would want to change him, he's clearly competent, and much of the unpopularity of the government is due to things outside their control, like the pandemic and war in Ukraine. If circumstances were better Sunak would be doing just fine I think, as it is all he can really do is hope that in two years time the world is in a better place.
The media keep telling everyone that multiple things that really have nothing to do with Brexit have been caused by it. Obviously, as new Labour established long ago, if you say things often enough people will eventually believe it.
Well Brexiteers never blamed the EU for multiple things that were nothing to do with the EU.
I find Brexiteers blaming the EU for Brexit the most annoying thing.
The mix of naivety, arrogance and immorality is pretty stunning.
BTW, both his parents are law professors, reportedly.
Did you experience this ? As a lawyer this interview is giving me a second-hand panic attack
My jaw is still on the floor, I genuinely expected a correction at the bottom of that story saying Sam Bankman-Fried's Twitter account was hacked and this interview is a hoax.
So, how much of a budget anti-bounce are we expecting for the Tories?
I'm thinking an average drop of around 5 points.
Really not sure but there is a reasonable argument that the next GE is going to be decided by the response to tomorrow's budget, one way or the other. Will the Tories pull off a 1990/91 and 1992 result again? Extremely unlikely but not impossible.
They might but circumstances are very different. If the number of voters that believe Brexit was a mistake keeps on growing, sooner or later they are going to start taking it out on the politicians that advocated it and Sunak is a dyed-in-the-wool leaver. It is the prime reason he will never get my vote whatever he does.
So it turned out that Brexit was a bad move, and that placing our future in the hands of Farage and Johnson wasn’t completely shrewd. 🤷♂️ it’s like we are slowly waking up from an all night bender.
How have we placed the future in the hands of Farage?
The FTX-fueled spending included millions of dollars on virus research and lobbying — but also $150,000 to help Operation Warp Speed’s science adviser write his memoir, and $5M to ProPublica that funded its recent story with Vanity Fair on covid origins. https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/1592991332145893376
For $5m they couldn’t even afford a decent Chinese translator.
So it turned out that Brexit was a bad move, and that placing our future in the hands of Farage and Johnson wasn’t completely shrewd. 🤷♂️ it’s like we are slowly waking up from an all night bender.
How have we placed the future in the hands of Farage?
Farage had an idea and we went “yes, let’s give that a try”.
Time for Stamer to get on this horse before it gallops away. I can't see any downside and a considerable upside. Not least that it's now apparent to even the dimmest Leaver that they made a ruinous decision. It's now common knowledge and has even ffound it's way to Hartlepool. We've been led by donkeys but guess what? Those donkeys are the current government and they're taking us on a one way ticket to Palookaville
He has no rush. He can take a win and then take steps closer and closer and see the reaction, or lack thereof.
Look, I'd like us to still be in the EU as much as the next man, but spending 5 years renegotiating full entry would hole Labour under the water line on day 1. EFTA maybe, but again there are accommodations quicker to achieve than that. Get what we can in improved closer relations early doors, but don't allow it to dominate a primary domestic agenda.
Opportunities to tack closer will come in time.
Slowly, slowly catchy monkey.
And provided the UK hasn't done any big divergence that would be hard to unpick, the conversation will be easier to have in 2034 than 2024.
There was an assumption (see DD's comments about all the brilliant trade deals that would have been signed before we even left, or the promises to shred all Eurolaw in a year) that the UK would be decisively out of the EU's orbit by now. That hasn't really happened, partly because it is actually really hard to do, and partly because a lot of Conservative ministers since 2016 have been pin-headed ninnies.
After all, a government that got an 80 seat majority shouldn't be looking at the next election with this much fatalism.
The leaked budget, and @Casino_Royale’s response, is much more interesting.
I will be seriously ticked off if the weight of additional taxation once again falls almost exclusively on those who have to work for a living. It really is absolutely essential that those with the highest disposable incomes in our society, who are usually the retired with pensions and mortgages paid off, contribute substantially to the rebalancing that is required.
I will also be searching for policies designed to promote growth, specifically additional tax reliefs for investment and training and closer links between our excellent Universities and business.
Me too, but I’m afraid Rishi is ideologically opposed to almost anything you and I would want to see, and Treasury’s insistence on fiscal contraction is set to doom the country to prolonging the recession even if Rishi suddenly discovers this thing called endogenous growth theory.
I don't want to rake up the past too much, but both DavidL and Casino Royale were all guns blazing for Rishi, when it was absolutely clear from day dot that this is what he would do.
David and Casino are über partisans: they support any donkey with a blue rosette.
Interesting from you, one of pb’s biggest ultras.
I’m not remotely partisan. I’m pro-Scottish. My dearest wish is to make the SNP defunct.
So it turned out that Brexit was a bad move, and that placing our future in the hands of Farage and Johnson wasn’t completely shrewd. 🤷♂️ it’s like we are slowly waking up from an all night bender.
How have we placed the future in the hands of Farage?
Farage had an idea and we went “yes, let’s give that a try”.
I can't believe the Tories would even remotely entertain the possibility of yet another leader before the election. They'd become the laughing stock's laughing stock, both here and abroad, and that could also precipitate further economic troubles again.
Rishi it is, and Rishi will stay.
I don't see why anyone serious would want to change him, he's clearly competent, and much of the unpopularity of the government is due to things outside their control, like the pandemic and war in Ukraine. If circumstances were better Sunak would be doing just fine I think, as it is all he can really do is hope that in two years time the world is in a better place.
A caretaker pm.
He probably is. I don't believe any conceivable government would be popular right now.
I can't believe the Tories would even remotely entertain the possibility of yet another leader before the election. They'd become the laughing stock's laughing stock, both here and abroad, and that could also precipitate further economic troubles again.
Rishi it is, and Rishi will stay.
I don't see why anyone serious would want to change him, he's clearly competent, and much of the unpopularity of the government is due to things outside their control, like the pandemic and war in Ukraine. If circumstances were better Sunak would be doing just fine I think, as it is all he can really do is hope that in two years time the world is in a better place.
Time for Stamer to get on this horse before it gallops away. I can't see any downside and a considerable upside. Not least that it's now apparent to even the dimmest Leaver that they made a ruinous decision. It's now common knowledge and has even ffound it's way to Hartlepool. We've been led by donkeys but guess what? Those donkeys are the current government and they're taking us on a one way ticket to Palookaville
He has no rush. He can take a win and then take steps closer and closer and see the reaction, or lack thereof.
Look, I'd like us to still be in the EU as much as the next man, but spending 5 years renegotiating full entry would hole Labour under the water line on day 1. EFTA maybe, but again there are accommodations quicker to achieve than that. Get what we can in improved closer relations early doors, but don't allow it to dominate a primary domestic agenda.
Opportunities to tack closer will come in time.
Slowly, slowly catchy monkey.
And provided the UK hasn't done any big divergence that would be hard to unpick, the conversation will be easier to have in 2034 than 2024.
There was an assumption (see DD's comments about all the brilliant trade deals that would have been signed before we even left, or the promises to shred all Eurolaw in a year) that the UK would be decisively out of the EU's orbit by now. That hasn't really happened, partly because it is actually really hard to do, and partly because a lot of Conservative ministers since 2016 have been pin-headed ninnies.
After all, a government that got an 80 seat majority shouldn't be looking at the next election with this much fatalism.
Divergence is necessary to normalise the situation. It is inevitable that we will diverge, we will adapt, and we will move forward. We can only be parked in 'hopeless shitshow' for so long before the perpetrators are found out.
So it turned out that Brexit was a bad move, and that placing our future in the hands of Farage and Johnson wasn’t completely shrewd. 🤷♂️ it’s like we are slowly waking up from an all night bender.
How have we placed the future in the hands of Farage?
Farage had an idea and we went “yes, let’s give that a try”.
So how have we placed the future in his hands?
Eh? We trusted Farage and Johnson and followed them into this mess. They made Britain was it is today and limited what we can look forward to tomorrow.
So it turned out that Brexit was a bad move, and that placing our future in the hands of Farage and Johnson wasn’t completely shrewd. 🤷♂️ it’s like we are slowly waking up from an all night bender.
How have we placed the future in the hands of Farage?
Farage had an idea and we went “yes, let’s give that a try”.
So how have we placed the future in his hands?
Eh? We followed Farage and Johnson into this mess. They made Britain was it is today and limited what we can look forward to tomorrow.
Yes, OK. So how have we placed the future in his hands?
I expect the Tories to backload much of its cuts to 2024 and beyond.
In part that is to avoid too much pain now, and in part it is intended as a trap / challenge to Labour. The Tories will be planning that by 2024 they can reduce taxes and challenge Labour into conceding austerity or promising tax rises.
Labour need to reject this silly orthodoxy entirely, the country needs (carefully applied) investment if it is ever to break out of its current stagnation. It has two years to build the case.
Rachael Reeves is possibly the most important person in British politics today.
So it turned out that Brexit was a bad move, and that placing our future in the hands of Farage and Johnson wasn’t completely shrewd. 🤷♂️ it’s like we are slowly waking up from an all night bender.
How have we placed the future in the hands of Farage?
Farage had an idea and we went “yes, let’s give that a try”.
So how have we placed the future in his hands?
Eh? We followed Farage and Johnson into this mess. They made Britain was it is today and limited what we can look forward to tomorrow.
Yes, OK. So how have we placed the future in his hands?
I am glad you’re clearly an optimist and we can back out of this shit show. I wish I had your faith. For me, this Faragean-Johnsonean dystopia has some time yet to run. Wasted years. We’re Nigel’s children.
I will say it's also quite depressing that people think the answer to all our economic problems is to rejoin the EU. I suspect the economy would grow faster but per capita is less clear as are the distributional effects. And there may be some small economic benefits from divergence. The bigger problem is no-one seems to have any answers for how to turn us from a low wage, low investment, low productivity economy into a high wage, high investment, high productivity economy. The obsession about monetary policy when inflation is largely due to China's covid policy and Putin turning off the gas is a case in point.
Even today you have members of the MPC saying that the constrained labour market is inflationary, due to Brexit. Well the solution isn't cheap labour as that ain't on the cards anymore, it's investment in skills, education, automation, and the like. This should have been blindingly obvious but you still get loads of business leaders banging the immigration drum. Maybe we need to start with importing some capable management first?
Sooner or later even British management is going to have to accept that the days when our supply of labour was almost infinitely elastic are at an end and if they want to grow their businesses they are going to have to invest in them instead making better use of the labour that they do have.
Not just British management.
I was talking to some German managers just today. Their brilliant plan - move more work to Eastern Europe because it’s cheaper. I pointed out the the productivity numbers strongly suggest that there wouldn’t be much savings. “But workers are cheaper there”, they bleated. Like especially dumb sheep.
I expect the Tories to backload much of its cuts to 2024 and beyond.
In part that is to avoid too much pain now, and in part it is intended as a trap / challenge to Labour. The Tories will be planning that by 2024 they can reduce taxes and challenge Labour into conceding austerity or promising tax rises.
Labour need to reject this silly orthodoxy entirely, the country needs (carefully applied) investment if it is ever to break out of its current stagnation. It has two years to build the case.
Rachael Reeves is possibly the most important person in British politics today.
Truss tried to use the economy to lay political traps for Labour. That didn’t end well. The Tories should fix the mess they made, rather than play silly games.
I can't believe the Tories would even remotely entertain the possibility of yet another leader before the election. They'd become the laughing stock's laughing stock, both here and abroad, and that could also precipitate further economic troubles again.
Rishi it is, and Rishi will stay.
I don't see why anyone serious would want to change him, he's clearly competent, and much of the unpopularity of the government is due to things outside their control, like the pandemic and war in Ukraine. If circumstances were better Sunak would be doing just fine I think, as it is all he can really do is hope that in two years time the world is in a better place.
A caretaker pm.
Alec Douglas Second Home in California.
That’s very good.
One one hand it’s unfair to pick on Rishi’s unimaginable riches.
On the other hand, who in the UK has a second home in California? Is there no guaranteed sunshine closer to Britain?
I expect the Tories to backload much of its cuts to 2024 and beyond.
In part that is to avoid too much pain now, and in part it is intended as a trap / challenge to Labour. The Tories will be planning that by 2024 they can reduce taxes and challenge Labour into conceding austerity or promising tax rises.
Labour need to reject this silly orthodoxy entirely, the country needs (carefully applied) investment if it is ever to break out of its current stagnation. It has two years to build the case.
Rachael Reeves is possibly the most important person in British politics today.
Sadly that doesn't inspire massive confidence in our future.
Time for Stamer to get on this horse before it gallops away. I can't see any downside and a considerable upside. Not least that it's now apparent to even the dimmest Leaver that they made a ruinous decision. It's now common knowledge and has even ffound it's way to Hartlepool. We've been led by donkeys but guess what? Those donkeys are the current government and they're taking us on a one way ticket to Palookaville
He has no rush. He can take a win and then take steps closer and closer and see the reaction, or lack thereof.
Look, I'd like us to still be in the EU as much as the next man, but spending 5 years renegotiating full entry would hole Labour under the water line on day 1. EFTA maybe, but again there are accommodations quicker to achieve than that. Get what we can in improved closer relations early doors, but don't allow it to dominate a primary domestic agenda.
Opportunities to tack closer will come in time.
Slowly, slowly catchy monkey.
And provided the UK hasn't done any big divergence that would be hard to unpick, the conversation will be easier to have in 2034 than 2024.
There was an assumption (see DD's comments about all the brilliant trade deals that would have been signed before we even left, or the promises to shred all Eurolaw in a year) that the UK would be decisively out of the EU's orbit by now. That hasn't really happened, partly because it is actually really hard to do, and partly because a lot of Conservative ministers since 2016 have been pin-headed ninnies.
After all, a government that got an 80 seat majority shouldn't be looking at the next election with this much fatalism.
Divergence is necessary to normalise the situation. It is inevitable that we will diverge, we will adapt, and we will move forward. We can only be parked in 'hopeless shitshow' for so long before the perpetrators are found out.
How often do countries that are adjacent to big trading blocs see their standards diverge?
Canada and the US are not in a monolithic bloc like the EU, and Canada essentially follows all US product standards.
The media keep telling everyone that multiple things that really have nothing to do with Brexit have been caused by it. Obviously, as new Labour established long ago, if you say things often enough people will eventually believe it.
Nice try but to simply say nothing that has happened since 2016 has anything to do with the fact we left the European Union rather begs the question why we bothered to leave in the first place as it is or was so marginal and insubstantial and irrelevant to the warp and weft of events.
You can't have it both ways - to simply say leaving the EU has made no difference to anything (I suppose there are a few positives such as sovereignty but some will argue you can't eat or spend sovereignty especially when times are hard) can only make people wonder if it was worth all the effort, anger and night after night of the same argument over the past six and a bit years.
I sometimes wonder if it was worth it myself. I have consistently said that the effect of Brexit has been vastly overstated by both its proponents and opponents alike.
We have the same problems that made membership of the SM so catastrophic for us in every field but finance. We don't invest enough, we consume too much, we don't train enough, our productivity is consequentially poor and we just don't seem to care that we are constantly borrowing tens of billions from the rest of the world to have a standard of living we have not earned. Brexit could have helped us in holding our political class to account for these failures with no ready excuse to hand but no, we would rather argue about irrelevancies than our real underlying problems.
It is the latter issues you enumerate, rather than the single market itself, you keep conflating the two.
In some ways, the single market hid and covered up for underlying issues.
No it didn't it exposed them in a ruinous trade deficit that we ignored. And, for the nth time there was nothing wrong with the SM. It was, in theory, a good idea. What was wrong was the economic policies we implemented in this country whilst a part of it. A SM is both an opportunity and a discipline. We refused to be disciplined and paid the price.
But pretending that rejoining it would make things any better without addressing the reasons it did not work for us is bordering on Einstein's definition of madness.
I agree it is an “opportunity and discipline”.
But rejoining it is a pre-requisite for any sort of prosperity, notwithstanding any discipline you talk about.
All the discipline in the world is not going to make up for the opportunities that have been sacrificed. Lower trade levels have not closed the trade deficit, and lower trade levels reduce consumer satisfaction across the board regardless of any deficit. It also reduces productivity.
I think moving to a better trading position is entirely possible without rejoin. Once again I am reminded that the way some talk about Brexit, we no longer trade with the EU. This is, of course, nonsense. We have free trade. It is being hindered by paperwork right now. Sort that and the issues reduce mightily. As @RochdalePioneers keeps saying, our standards are still the EU standards. We just need to stay aligned.
By dismissing the issue as “paperwork” you are falling into the trap of so many Brexiters who think that a bit of good old fashioned common sense can reduce trade barriers to nought.
Dynamic alignment raises all sorts of sovreignty issues of course.
It’s also unnecessary. Equivalence would be an appropriate position to adopt
"The British had the entire European banking market at their feet, total control and they threw it all away.for their stupid Brexit. We are still laughing"
And whilst it's tactless to say it too loudly, the "us" that voted in 2016 will be a different "us" to the one involved in any future vote. Of course it's possible that people become massively more Eurosceptic as the retire, but it's hard to see the mechanism and I'd be interested to see the fine-grained polling evidence showing that happening.
And then the question becomes simple to state, but difficult to answer. At what point does it become possible to take the Brexit we have been bequeathed back to the shop and try to exchange it for something else? And what options will be available?
If you added hangers floggers and racists you'd get an even more disturbing picture but those are the realities
So it turned out that Brexit was a bad move, and that placing our future in the hands of Farage and Johnson wasn’t completely shrewd. 🤷♂️ it’s like we are slowly waking up from an all night bender.
How have we placed the future in the hands of Farage?
Farage had an idea and we went “yes, let’s give that a try”.
So how have we placed the future in his hands?
Eh? We followed Farage and Johnson into this mess. They made Britain was it is today and limited what we can look forward to tomorrow.
Yes, OK. So how have we placed the future in his hands?
I am glad you’re clearly an optimist and we can back out of this shit show. I wish I had your faith. For me, this Faragean-Johnsonean dystopia has some time yet to run. Wasted years. We’re Nigel’s children.
I'd prefer to move forward than reverse. I find the fear of belonging to an independent country rather silly. I relish the idea that Sunak can be sacked at the behest of the British people and that the highest authority in the land will pass to a party that more British electors prefer. They will be able to shape Britain for the future, not as part of a bureaucratic plan set out by policy makers who have never been accountable democratically for their grand schemes. That is exciting. It should be relished by anyone who cares about politics and believes in democracy.
I expect the Tories to backload much of its cuts to 2024 and beyond.
In part that is to avoid too much pain now, and in part it is intended as a trap / challenge to Labour. The Tories will be planning that by 2024 they can reduce taxes and challenge Labour into conceding austerity or promising tax rises.
Labour need to reject this silly orthodoxy entirely, the country needs (carefully applied) investment if it is ever to break out of its current stagnation. It has two years to build the case.
Rachael Reeves is possibly the most important person in British politics today.
Sadly that doesn't inspire massive confidence in our future.
I hate to be rude but Reeves comes across as clueless. Every time I hear her interviewed it's the same banal generalisations, with absolutely no answers to even quite basic questions about what Labour would actually do. I know politicians don't like nailing their colours to the mast years ahead of an election, but Reeves comes across as a thoughtless void, no sign of any spark, drive, or originality. Her CV amazes me, she should be able to answer these hypotheticals with her eyes closed. If she's the best Labour have got they sure as hell aren't going to be fixing things in two years time.
If step 1 in the growth plan is better management, step 0 had better be better politicians.
Time for Stamer to get on this horse before it gallops away. I can't see any downside and a considerable upside. Not least that it's now apparent to even the dimmest Leaver that they made a ruinous decision. It's now common knowledge and has even ffound it's way to Hartlepool. We've been led by donkeys but guess what? Those donkeys are the current government and they're taking us on a one way ticket to Palookaville
He has no rush. He can take a win and then take steps closer and closer and see the reaction, or lack thereof.
Look, I'd like us to still be in the EU as much as the next man, but spending 5 years renegotiating full entry would hole Labour under the water line on day 1. EFTA maybe, but again there are accommodations quicker to achieve than that. Get what we can in improved closer relations early doors, but don't allow it to dominate a primary domestic agenda.
Opportunities to tack closer will come in time.
Slowly, slowly catchy monkey.
And provided the UK hasn't done any big divergence that would be hard to unpick, the conversation will be easier to have in 2034 than 2024.
There was an assumption (see DD's comments about all the brilliant trade deals that would have been signed before we even left, or the promises to shred all Eurolaw in a year) that the UK would be decisively out of the EU's orbit by now. That hasn't really happened, partly because it is actually really hard to do, and partly because a lot of Conservative ministers since 2016 have been pin-headed ninnies.
After all, a government that got an 80 seat majority shouldn't be looking at the next election with this much fatalism.
Divergence is necessary to normalise the situation. It is inevitable that we will diverge, we will adapt, and we will move forward. We can only be parked in 'hopeless shitshow' for so long before the perpetrators are found out.
How often do countries that are adjacent to big trading blocs see their standards diverge?
Canada and the US are not in a monolithic bloc like the EU, and Canada essentially follows all US product standards.
And the other obvious candidates (ie countries sitting next to a large trading bloc) are in the EEA, one way or another.
Bill Kristol @BillKristol A plea: Do not underestimate Trump.
He won the Republican nomination twice and the presidency once. He's a proven demagogue on the national stage. He's launching early to stall others' momentum. He could win the nomination again. He could win the presidency again.
I expect the Tories to backload much of its cuts to 2024 and beyond.
In part that is to avoid too much pain now, and in part it is intended as a trap / challenge to Labour. The Tories will be planning that by 2024 they can reduce taxes and challenge Labour into conceding austerity or promising tax rises.
Labour need to reject this silly orthodoxy entirely, the country needs (carefully applied) investment if it is ever to break out of its current stagnation. It has two years to build the case.
Rachael Reeves is possibly the most important person in British politics today.
Sadly that doesn't inspire massive confidence in our future.
Though I agree with the thrust of your argument.
I consider her a definite improvement on Sunak Rishi, and any possible Tory candidate, but I fear that we are still in the slim pickings saloon.
When you get the leaders of such solid Conservative County Councils as Hampshire and Kent saying they may be forced to issue Section 114 notices this winter, you know there's a huge crisis building in local Government finance and service provision.
What do you suggest is the answer?
The underlying problem is that councils are being squeezed by the government from two directions. On one hand, they have no choice but to spend lots of money on social care- it's statutory, expensive and there's not much to be had in the way of efficiency gains. in Havering, that's now about 70% of the budget. On the other, their income is constrained by central government, due to the rules limiting Council Tax increases. Most councils have already stripped any functions that are remotely discretionary, and are heading for the point where their maximum possible income will be less than their minimum possible expenditure.
What I'd like to see is central govenment blooming well stumping up the cash for the things they are demanding. Then Council Tax levels can track the discretionary choices about spending, which would be better for democracy. The downside is that the taxes central government controls would have to go up.
Would doing something about social care at a national level (as in May and Johnson both tried before being howled down) sort this? Not sure, but it would help a lot.
They are definitely doing something tomorrow to allow councils to raise more council tax.
You didn’t mention inflation, I understood the councils are threatening bankruptcy due to the impact of inflation.
At breakfast tomorrow Sky will be reporting from a balloon business that’s closed due to the cost of inflation. Quite possibly.
Balloon blowing business suffering from inflation. Surely you jest young Rabbit?
So it turned out that Brexit was a bad move, and that placing our future in the hands of Farage and Johnson wasn’t completely shrewd. 🤷♂️ it’s like we are slowly waking up from an all night bender.
How have we placed the future in the hands of Farage?
Farage had an idea and we went “yes, let’s give that a try”.
So how have we placed the future in his hands?
Eh? We followed Farage and Johnson into this mess. They made Britain was it is today and limited what we can look forward to tomorrow.
Yes, OK. So how have we placed the future in his hands?
I am glad you’re clearly an optimist and we can back out of this shit show. I wish I had your faith. For me, this Faragean-Johnsonean dystopia has some time yet to run. Wasted years. We’re Nigel’s children.
I'd prefer to move forward than reverse. I find the fear of belonging to an independent country rather silly. I relish the idea that Sunak can be sacked at the behest of the British people and that the highest authority in the land will pass to a party that more British electors prefer. They will be able to shape Britain for the future, not as part of a bureaucratic plan set out by policy makers who hve never been accountable democratically for their grand schemes. That is exciting. It should be relished by anyone who cares about politics and believes in democracy.
The same old nonsense. We were always independent. Ironically, we proved that by leaving. We just used to work together for mutual benefit. Now we don’t and we’re poorer for it.
Meanwhile we put all out faith in a Westminster/Whitehall system that is utterly broken. PM Sunak what a shining beacon of democracy that man is. Who voted for this technocratic budget? Noone, not a sausage.
There is nothing exciting about this mess. Just taxes and cuts.
So it turned out that Brexit was a bad move, and that placing our future in the hands of Farage and Johnson wasn’t completely shrewd. 🤷♂️ it’s like we are slowly waking up from an all night bender.
How have we placed the future in the hands of Farage?
Farage had an idea and we went “yes, let’s give that a try”.
So how have we placed the future in his hands?
Eh? We followed Farage and Johnson into this mess. They made Britain was it is today and limited what we can look forward to tomorrow.
Yes, OK. So how have we placed the future in his hands?
I am glad you’re clearly an optimist and we can back out of this shit show. I wish I had your faith. For me, this Faragean-Johnsonean dystopia has some time yet to run. Wasted years. We’re Nigel’s children.
I'd prefer to move forward than reverse. I find the fear of belonging to an independent country rather silly. I relish the idea that Sunak can be sacked at the behest of the British people and that the highest authority in the land will pass to a party that more British electors prefer. They will be able to shape Britain for the future, not as part of a bureaucratic plan set out by policy makers who have never been accountable democratically for their grand schemes. That is exciting. It should be relished by anyone who cares about politics and believes in democracy.
There’s half a reasonable point buried in here somewhere, but most will switch off when they read your batshit second sentence.
I can't believe the Tories would even remotely entertain the possibility of yet another leader before the election. They'd become the laughing stock's laughing stock, both here and abroad, and that could also precipitate further economic troubles again.
Rishi it is, and Rishi will stay.
I don't see why anyone serious would want to change him, he's clearly competent, and much of the unpopularity of the government is due to things outside their control, like the pandemic and war in Ukraine. If circumstances were better Sunak would be doing just fine I think, as it is all he can really do is hope that in two years time the world is in a better place.
A caretaker pm.
Alec Douglas Second Home in California.
That’s very good.
One one hand it’s unfair to pick on Rishi’s unimaginable riches.
On the other hand, who in the UK has a second home in California? Is there no guaranteed sunshine closer to Britain?
"The British had the entire European banking market at their feet, total control and they threw it all away.for their stupid Brexit. We are still laughing"
Bill Kristol @BillKristol A plea: Do not underestimate Trump.
He won the Republican nomination twice and the presidency once. He's a proven demagogue on the national stage. He's launching early to stall others' momentum. He could win the nomination again. He could win the presidency again.
When Trump first announced he was running in 2015 it was a big joke. That's why the Reddit subreddit was The_Donald, not Trump_2016 or something similarly sober, it wasn't full of people thinking Trump was viable, it was full of smart alecs thinking what a hoot it was that this imbecile was running for President. The joke went from "he's running" through each primary, to the convention, and the nomination, and even on the day of the election the guys with their "meme magic" still didn't really believe Trump could win and the joke would roll on into the Whitehouse. But of course it did, and The_Donald went from a place that thought Trump was a jerk to a place full of die hard MAGA nutters which eventually got banned due to all the threats of violence etc.
Trump remains dangerous, and nobody should treat his candidacy lightly.
Time for Stamer to get on this horse before it gallops away. I can't see any downside and a considerable upside. Not least that it's now apparent to even the dimmest Leaver that they made a ruinous decision. It's now common knowledge and has even ffound it's way to Hartlepool. We've been led by donkeys but guess what? Those donkeys are the current government and they're taking us on a one way ticket to Palookaville
He has no rush. He can take a win and then take steps closer and closer and see the reaction, or lack thereof.
Look, I'd like us to still be in the EU as much as the next man, but spending 5 years renegotiating full entry would hole Labour under the water line on day 1. EFTA maybe, but again there are accommodations quicker to achieve than that. Get what we can in improved closer relations early doors, but don't allow it to dominate a primary domestic agenda.
Opportunities to tack closer will come in time.
Slowly, slowly catchy monkey.
And provided the UK hasn't done any big divergence that would be hard to unpick, the conversation will be easier to have in 2034 than 2024.
There was an assumption (see DD's comments about all the brilliant trade deals that would have been signed before we even left, or the promises to shred all Eurolaw in a year) that the UK would be decisively out of the EU's orbit by now. That hasn't really happened, partly because it is actually really hard to do, and partly because a lot of Conservative ministers since 2016 have been pin-headed ninnies.
After all, a government that got an 80 seat majority shouldn't be looking at the next election with this much fatalism.
Divergence is necessary to normalise the situation. It is inevitable that we will diverge, we will adapt, and we will move forward. We can only be parked in 'hopeless shitshow' for so long before the perpetrators are found out.
How often do countries that are adjacent to big trading blocs see their standards diverge?
Canada and the US are not in a monolithic bloc like the EU, and Canada essentially follows all US product standards.
Do you think a different stance on, say, GM is implausible?
Time for Stamer to get on this horse before it gallops away. I can't see any downside and a considerable upside. Not least that it's now apparent to even the dimmest Leaver that they made a ruinous decision. It's now common knowledge and has even ffound it's way to Hartlepool. We've been led by donkeys but guess what? Those donkeys are the current government and they're taking us on a one way ticket to Palookaville
He has no rush. He can take a win and then take steps closer and closer and see the reaction, or lack thereof.
Look, I'd like us to still be in the EU as much as the next man, but spending 5 years renegotiating full entry would hole Labour under the water line on day 1. EFTA maybe, but again there are accommodations quicker to achieve than that. Get what we can in improved closer relations early doors, but don't allow it to dominate a primary domestic agenda.
Opportunities to tack closer will come in time.
Slowly, slowly catchy monkey.
And provided the UK hasn't done any big divergence that would be hard to unpick, the conversation will be easier to have in 2034 than 2024.
There was an assumption (see DD's comments about all the brilliant trade deals that would have been signed before we even left, or the promises to shred all Eurolaw in a year) that the UK would be decisively out of the EU's orbit by now. That hasn't really happened, partly because it is actually really hard to do, and partly because a lot of Conservative ministers since 2016 have been pin-headed ninnies.
After all, a government that got an 80 seat majority shouldn't be looking at the next election with this much fatalism.
Divergence is necessary to normalise the situation. It is inevitable that we will diverge, we will adapt, and we will move forward. We can only be parked in 'hopeless shitshow' for so long before the perpetrators are found out.
How often do countries that are adjacent to big trading blocs see their standards diverge?
Canada and the US are not in a monolithic bloc like the EU, and Canada essentially follows all US product standards.
I'm not necessarily talking about standards. Our policy is still dictated at multiple levels by adherence to the EU's plans. A few examples:
Lack of building reservoirs (and dredging), despite such infrastructure being needed to keep pace with an expanding population. This adherence to EU waterways directives is now totally unnecessary, but still enforced by the Environment Agency.
Energy policy - the accoutrements of a single energy market are still being added, interconnectors to Germany added at great expense to us, though we have a similar latitude and wind conditions, and similar energy shortages currently. Useless for Britain. We actually need better internal interconnectors to facilitate better use of wind power, not to mention energy storage - both better things to spend money on than connecting us to Germany. But we're still spending on it.
HS2 - a massive turkey. Completely obsolete and unnecessary now, even less necessarily when video conferencing will advance even further in the years ahead. A great candidate for any Government looking for savings. But it won't, because HS2 belongs to an overarching EU rail project.
These are just some that spring to mind. We must (and I believe will), kindly and gently let these things fall away, as we look after our own interests, whilst being good neighbours and compromising where it is mutually beneficial to do so.
Time for Stamer to get on this horse before it gallops away. I can't see any downside and a considerable upside. Not least that it's now apparent to even the dimmest Leaver that they made a ruinous decision. It's now common knowledge and has even ffound it's way to Hartlepool. We've been led by donkeys but guess what? Those donkeys are the current government and they're taking us on a one way ticket to Palookaville
He has no rush. He can take a win and then take steps closer and closer and see the reaction, or lack thereof.
Look, I'd like us to still be in the EU as much as the next man, but spending 5 years renegotiating full entry would hole Labour under the water line on day 1. EFTA maybe, but again there are accommodations quicker to achieve than that. Get what we can in improved closer relations early doors, but don't allow it to dominate a primary domestic agenda.
Opportunities to tack closer will come in time.
Slowly, slowly catchy monkey.
And provided the UK hasn't done any big divergence that would be hard to unpick, the conversation will be easier to have in 2034 than 2024.
There was an assumption (see DD's comments about all the brilliant trade deals that would have been signed before we even left, or the promises to shred all Eurolaw in a year) that the UK would be decisively out of the EU's orbit by now. That hasn't really happened, partly because it is actually really hard to do, and partly because a lot of Conservative ministers since 2016 have been pin-headed ninnies.
After all, a government that got an 80 seat majority shouldn't be looking at the next election with this much fatalism.
Divergence is necessary to normalise the situation. It is inevitable that we will diverge, we will adapt, and we will move forward. We can only be parked in 'hopeless shitshow' for so long before the perpetrators are found out.
How often do countries that are adjacent to big trading blocs see their standards diverge?
Canada and the US are not in a monolithic bloc like the EU, and Canada essentially follows all US product standards.
They do? My understanding from watching shitty Discovery Channel documentaries on trucking is that, if a US truck bound for Alaska comes off the road due to ice in Canada, and has to be unloaded for it to be recovered, the food is unsaleable in Canada, and the locals unload it and take it for themselves: once the seal is broken, it's considered non-kosher, as it were.
So it turned out that Brexit was a bad move, and that placing our future in the hands of Farage and Johnson wasn’t completely shrewd. 🤷♂️ it’s like we are slowly waking up from an all night bender.
How have we placed the future in the hands of Farage?
Farage had an idea and we went “yes, let’s give that a try”.
So how have we placed the future in his hands?
Eh? We followed Farage and Johnson into this mess. They made Britain was it is today and limited what we can look forward to tomorrow.
Yes, OK. So how have we placed the future in his hands?
I am glad you’re clearly an optimist and we can back out of this shit show. I wish I had your faith. For me, this Faragean-Johnsonean dystopia has some time yet to run. Wasted years. We’re Nigel’s children.
I'd prefer to move forward than reverse. I find the fear of belonging to an independent country rather silly. I relish the idea that Sunak can be sacked at the behest of the British people and that the highest authority in the land will pass to a party that more British electors prefer. They will be able to shape Britain for the future, not as part of a bureaucratic plan set out by policy makers who have never been accountable democratically for their grand schemes. That is exciting. It should be relished by anyone who cares about politics and believes in democracy.
There’s half a reasonable point buried in here somewhere, but most will switch off when they read your batshit second sentence.
The reasons why Leavers wanted to get out become ever more elastivc as the absurdity of their postion dawns on them
Time for Stamer to get on this horse before it gallops away. I can't see any downside and a considerable upside. Not least that it's now apparent to even the dimmest Leaver that they made a ruinous decision. It's now common knowledge and has even ffound it's way to Hartlepool. We've been led by donkeys but guess what? Those donkeys are the current government and they're taking us on a one way ticket to Palookaville
He has no rush. He can take a win and then take steps closer and closer and see the reaction, or lack thereof.
Look, I'd like us to still be in the EU as much as the next man, but spending 5 years renegotiating full entry would hole Labour under the water line on day 1. EFTA maybe, but again there are accommodations quicker to achieve than that. Get what we can in improved closer relations early doors, but don't allow it to dominate a primary domestic agenda.
Opportunities to tack closer will come in time.
Slowly, slowly catchy monkey.
And provided the UK hasn't done any big divergence that would be hard to unpick, the conversation will be easier to have in 2034 than 2024.
There was an assumption (see DD's comments about all the brilliant trade deals that would have been signed before we even left, or the promises to shred all Eurolaw in a year) that the UK would be decisively out of the EU's orbit by now. That hasn't really happened, partly because it is actually really hard to do, and partly because a lot of Conservative ministers since 2016 have been pin-headed ninnies.
After all, a government that got an 80 seat majority shouldn't be looking at the next election with this much fatalism.
Divergence is necessary to normalise the situation. It is inevitable that we will diverge, we will adapt, and we will move forward. We can only be parked in 'hopeless shitshow' for so long before the perpetrators are found out.
How often do countries that are adjacent to big trading blocs see their standards diverge?
Canada and the US are not in a monolithic bloc like the EU, and Canada essentially follows all US product standards.
I'm not necessarily talking about standards. Our policy is still dictated at multiple levels by adherence to the EU's plans. A few examples:
Lack of building reservoirs (and dredging), despite such infrastructure being needed to keep pace with an expanding population. This adherence to EU waterways directives is now totally unnecessary, but still enforced by the Environment Agency.
Energy policy - the accoutrements of a single energy market are still being added, interconnectors to Germany added at great expense to us, though we have a similar latitude and wind conditions, and similar energy shortages currently. Useless for Britain. We actually need better internal interconnectors to facilitate better use of wind power, not to mention energy storage - both better things to spend money on than connecting us to Germany. But we're still spending on it.
HS2 - a massive turkey. Completely obsolete and unnecessary now, even less necessarily when video conferencing will advance even further in the years ahead. A great candidate for any Government looking for savings. But it won't, because HS2 belongs to an overarching EU rail project.
These are just some that spring to mind. We must (and I believe will), kindly and gently let these things fall away, as we look after our own interests, whilst being good neighbours and compromising where it is mutually beneficial to do so.
Have you noticed "video conferencing" ending commutes to Canary Wharf? No.
The leaked budget, and @Casino_Royale’s response, is much more interesting.
I will be seriously ticked off if the weight of additional taxation once again falls almost exclusively on those who have to work for a living. It really is absolutely essential that those with the highest disposable incomes in our society, who are usually the retired with pensions and mortgages paid off, contribute substantially to the rebalancing that is required.
I will also be searching for policies designed to promote growth, specifically additional tax reliefs for investment and training and closer links between our excellent Universities and business.
Me too, but I’m afraid Rishi is ideologically opposed to almost anything you and I would want to see, and Treasury’s insistence on fiscal contraction is set to doom the country to prolonging the recession even if Rishi suddenly discovers this thing called endogenous growth theory.
I don't want to rake up the past too much, but both DavidL and Casino Royale were all guns blazing for Rishi, when it was absolutely clear from day dot that this is what he would do.
David and Casino are über partisans: they support any donkey with a blue rosette.
Yeah, and you’re renowned for your open minded and balanced acceptance of all nationalities and points of view without any bias whatsofuckingever.
So it turned out that Brexit was a bad move, and that placing our future in the hands of Farage and Johnson wasn’t completely shrewd. 🤷♂️ it’s like we are slowly waking up from an all night bender.
How have we placed the future in the hands of Farage?
Farage had an idea and we went “yes, let’s give that a try”.
So how have we placed the future in his hands?
Eh? We followed Farage and Johnson into this mess. They made Britain was it is today and limited what we can look forward to tomorrow.
Yes, OK. So how have we placed the future in his hands?
I am glad you’re clearly an optimist and we can back out of this shit show. I wish I had your faith. For me, this Faragean-Johnsonean dystopia has some time yet to run. Wasted years. We’re Nigel’s children.
I'd prefer to move forward than reverse. I find the fear of belonging to an independent country rather silly. I relish the idea that Sunak can be sacked at the behest of the British people and that the highest authority in the land will pass to a party that more British electors prefer. They will be able to shape Britain for the future, not as part of a bureaucratic plan set out by policy makers who hve never been accountable democratically for their grand schemes. That is exciting. It should be relished by anyone who cares about politics and believes in democracy.
The same old nonsense. We were always independent. Ironically, we proved that by leaving. We just used to work together for mutual benefit. Now we don’t and we’re poorer for it.
Meanwhile we put all out faith in a Westminster/Whitehall system that is utterly broken. PM Sunak what a shining beacon of democracy that man is. Who voted for this technocratic budget? Noone, not a sausage.
There is nothing exciting about this mess. Just taxes and cuts.
So vote for someone else, which is more than you could ever do with the EU commission.
So it turned out that Brexit was a bad move, and that placing our future in the hands of Farage and Johnson wasn’t completely shrewd. 🤷♂️ it’s like we are slowly waking up from an all night bender.
How have we placed the future in the hands of Farage?
Farage had an idea and we went “yes, let’s give that a try”.
So how have we placed the future in his hands?
Eh? We followed Farage and Johnson into this mess. They made Britain was it is today and limited what we can look forward to tomorrow.
Yes, OK. So how have we placed the future in his hands?
I am glad you’re clearly an optimist and we can back out of this shit show. I wish I had your faith. For me, this Faragean-Johnsonean dystopia has some time yet to run. Wasted years. We’re Nigel’s children.
I'd prefer to move forward than reverse. I find the fear of belonging to an independent country rather silly. I relish the idea that Sunak can be sacked at the behest of the British people and that the highest authority in the land will pass to a party that more British electors prefer. They will be able to shape Britain for the future, not as part of a bureaucratic plan set out by policy makers who have never been accountable democratically for their grand schemes. That is exciting. It should be relished by anyone who cares about politics and believes in democracy.
There’s half a reasonable point buried in here somewhere, but most will switch off when they read your batshit second sentence.
Thanks, I appreciate the part that is complimentary.
Time for Stamer to get on this horse before it gallops away. I can't see any downside and a considerable upside. Not least that it's now apparent to even the dimmest Leaver that they made a ruinous decision. It's now common knowledge and has even ffound it's way to Hartlepool. We've been led by donkeys but guess what? Those donkeys are the current government and they're taking us on a one way ticket to Palookaville
He has no rush. He can take a win and then take steps closer and closer and see the reaction, or lack thereof.
Look, I'd like us to still be in the EU as much as the next man, but spending 5 years renegotiating full entry would hole Labour under the water line on day 1. EFTA maybe, but again there are accommodations quicker to achieve than that. Get what we can in improved closer relations early doors, but don't allow it to dominate a primary domestic agenda.
Opportunities to tack closer will come in time.
Slowly, slowly catchy monkey.
And provided the UK hasn't done any big divergence that would be hard to unpick, the conversation will be easier to have in 2034 than 2024.
There was an assumption (see DD's comments about all the brilliant trade deals that would have been signed before we even left, or the promises to shred all Eurolaw in a year) that the UK would be decisively out of the EU's orbit by now. That hasn't really happened, partly because it is actually really hard to do, and partly because a lot of Conservative ministers since 2016 have been pin-headed ninnies.
After all, a government that got an 80 seat majority shouldn't be looking at the next election with this much fatalism.
Divergence is necessary to normalise the situation. It is inevitable that we will diverge, we will adapt, and we will move forward. We can only be parked in 'hopeless shitshow' for so long before the perpetrators are found out.
I have a sneaking suspicion who they are. Just an inkling.
Do the polls take account of people who think Brexit was a bad idea but don't think the result should be overturned?
Most likely they are saying people are against whatever is the case politically, be it EU membership, Brexit, the existence of other countries, the Tory party, the Labour party, or whatever.
The media keep telling everyone that multiple things that really have nothing to do with Brexit have been caused by it. Obviously, as new Labour established long ago, if you say things often enough people will eventually believe it.
Well Brexiteers never blamed the EU for multiple things that were nothing to do with the EU.
I find Brexiteers blaming the EU for Brexit the most annoying thing.
They made us do it, we had no choice in the end. The fact that it's turned out so shite can essentially be laid at their door.
So it turned out that Brexit was a bad move, and that placing our future in the hands of Farage and Johnson wasn’t completely shrewd. 🤷♂️ it’s like we are slowly waking up from an all night bender.
How have we placed the future in the hands of Farage?
Farage had an idea and we went “yes, let’s give that a try”.
So how have we placed the future in his hands?
Eh? We followed Farage and Johnson into this mess. They made Britain was it is today and limited what we can look forward to tomorrow.
Yes, OK. So how have we placed the future in his hands?
I am glad you’re clearly an optimist and we can back out of this shit show. I wish I had your faith. For me, this Faragean-Johnsonean dystopia has some time yet to run. Wasted years. We’re Nigel’s children.
I'd prefer to move forward than reverse. I find the fear of belonging to an independent country rather silly. I relish the idea that Sunak can be sacked at the behest of the British people and that the highest authority in the land will pass to a party that more British electors prefer. They will be able to shape Britain for the future, not as part of a bureaucratic plan set out by policy makers who hve never been accountable democratically for their grand schemes. That is exciting. It should be relished by anyone who cares about politics and believes in democracy.
The same old nonsense. We were always independent. Ironically, we proved that by leaving. We just used to work together for mutual benefit. Now we don’t and we’re poorer for it.
Meanwhile we put all out faith in a Westminster/Whitehall system that is utterly broken. PM Sunak what a shining beacon of democracy that man is. Who voted for this technocratic budget? Noone, not a sausage.
There is nothing exciting about this mess. Just taxes and cuts.
So vote for someone else, which is more than you could ever do with the EU commission.
You can vote for a government that will send a different EU commissioner. If your complaint is that 500 million voters don't all take your orders, that's life.
Comments
Going from the Wikipedia page,
The aim of the EPC is to provide a policy coordination platform for European countries across the continent and to foster political dialogue and cooperation in order to address issues of common interest, so as to strengthen the security, stability and prosperity of the European continent.
None of which is bad, but it's also got little to do with the day-to-day practicalities for people trying to do business and live lives across the UK's borders with its neighbours. We had a way of dealing with those- that was literally what the Single Market was for. But at some point we decided we didn't want to be involved in that.
I suspect what raging leftie Margolyes means is England has. Tory government while Scotland doesn’t, so she spouts her rubbish.
Members have today voted to use the Welsh language names “in every context” from now on. 🏴
Snowdon will be ‘Yr Wyddfa’ 🏔️
Snowdonia will be ‘Eryri’
A thread.
https://twitter.com/gillibrandpeter/status/1592896559632781312?s=46&t=NTfBgwsKr_qD_0DQ4PY-mw
My garden
115%
I'm thinking an average drop of around 5 points.
https://twitter.com/kensingtonroyal/status/1592866776261357569?s=46&t=NTfBgwsKr_qD_0DQ4PY-mw
So, he’s not supporting England now?
Not that there's much they can do this time ; a general election would mean most of them losing their seats, only simply rather than the possibility of slightly fewer of them t losing their seats in a couple of years' time. Sunak is the slick and cheerful manager of a difficult time, but somehow he's enjoying it.
You didn’t mention inflation, I understood the councils are threatening bankruptcy due to the impact of inflation.
At breakfast tomorrow Sky will be reporting from a balloon business that’s closed due to the cost of inflation. Quite possibly.
The issue is that
Johnson < Truss < Sunak < The total renunciation of Brexit and the ousting of this ideologically bankrupt Tory government.
So, suppose it's May 2024 and the Conservatives are still on a one-way road to Oppositionsville. Do they take it on the chin or try AN Otherprimeminister as a last throw of the dice?
🚨 On Farage live from 7pm
@Nigel_Farage: is asking: Do you trust Zelenskyy?
📧 farage@gbnews.uk
#FarageOnGBNews
https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1592947299528876037
Growth, growth, and more growth.
And blessed are the cheese markets.
Opportunities to tack closer will come in time.
Slowly, slowly catchy monkey.
Rishi it is, and Rishi will stay.
BTW, both his parents are law professors, reportedly.
Did you experience this ?
As a lawyer this interview is giving me a second-hand panic attack
The FTX-fueled spending included millions of dollars on virus research and lobbying — but also $150,000 to help Operation Warp Speed’s science adviser write his memoir, and $5M to ProPublica that funded its recent story with Vanity Fair on covid origins.
https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/1592991332145893376
For $5m they couldn’t even afford a decent Chinese translator.
There was an assumption (see DD's comments about all the brilliant trade deals that would have been signed before we even left, or the promises to shred all Eurolaw in a year) that the UK would be decisively out of the EU's orbit by now. That hasn't really happened, partly because it is actually really hard to do, and partly because a lot of Conservative ministers since 2016 have been pin-headed ninnies.
After all, a government that got an 80 seat majority shouldn't be looking at the next election with this much fatalism.
In part that is to avoid too much pain now, and in part it is intended as a trap / challenge to Labour. The Tories will be planning that by 2024 they can reduce taxes and challenge Labour into conceding austerity or promising tax rises.
Labour need to reject this silly orthodoxy entirely, the country needs (carefully applied) investment if it is ever to break out of its current stagnation. It has two years to build the case.
Rachael Reeves is possibly the most important person in British politics today.
I was talking to some German managers just today. Their brilliant plan - move more work to Eastern Europe because it’s cheaper. I pointed out the the productivity numbers strongly suggest that there wouldn’t be much savings. “But workers are cheaper there”, they bleated. Like especially dumb sheep.
One one hand it’s unfair to pick on Rishi’s unimaginable riches.
On the other hand, who in the UK has a second home in California? Is there no guaranteed sunshine closer to Britain?
He is quite an unusual character.
Though I agree with the thrust of your argument.
Canada and the US are not in a monolithic bloc like the EU, and Canada essentially follows all US product standards.
If step 1 in the growth plan is better management, step 0 had better be better politicians.
Bill Kristol
@BillKristol
A plea: Do not underestimate Trump.
He won the Republican nomination twice and the presidency once. He's a proven demagogue on the national stage. He's launching early to stall others' momentum. He could win the nomination again. He could win the presidency again.
I'm alarmed.
https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1592886048660545536
Meanwhile we put all out faith in a Westminster/Whitehall system that is utterly broken. PM Sunak what a shining beacon of democracy that man is. Who voted for this technocratic budget? Noone, not a sausage.
There is nothing exciting about this mess. Just taxes and cuts.
Trump remains dangerous, and nobody should treat his candidacy lightly.
Lack of building reservoirs (and dredging), despite such infrastructure being needed to keep pace with an expanding population. This adherence to EU waterways directives is now totally unnecessary, but still enforced by the Environment Agency.
Energy policy - the accoutrements of a single energy market are still being added, interconnectors to Germany added at great expense to us, though we have a similar latitude and wind conditions, and similar energy shortages currently. Useless for Britain. We actually need better internal interconnectors to facilitate better use of wind power, not to mention energy storage - both better things to spend money on than connecting us to Germany. But we're still spending on it.
HS2 - a massive turkey. Completely obsolete and unnecessary now, even less necessarily when video conferencing will advance even further in the years ahead. A great candidate for any Government looking for savings. But it won't, because HS2 belongs to an overarching EU rail project.
These are just some that spring to mind. We must (and I believe will), kindly and gently let these things fall away, as we look after our own interests, whilst being good neighbours and compromising where it is mutually beneficial to do so.
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1592999953315627010
Former Vice President Mike Pence tells CBS News that he's "closing the door" on testifying before the Jan. 6 committee. “Congress has no right to my testimony,” he tells @margbrennan.
(Pretty poor interviewing, too, with virtually no challenge to his bullshit.)