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YouGov Brexit tracker: “Wrong to leave” has biggest lead yet – politicalbetting.com
YouGov Brexit tracker: “Wrong to leave” has biggest lead yet – politicalbetting.com
? Oof!! HUGE poll from YouGov. ?“In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?”Right to Leave: 32%Wrong to Leave: 56% Largest ever gap (+24)… and that gap has been opening wider & wider over this year.
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No, it won't.
The truth is leaving was one ordeal - rejoining would be another. The only policy any Party could sensibly put forward would be to initiate negotiations with the EU over the terms under which Britain could rejoin.
Those negotiations in and of themselves are going to take a while - if the EU insists on Euro, Schengen and Freedom of Movement, rejoining will be dead in the water. Even status quo ante bellum (so to speak) wouldn't be enough - after all, we rejected those terms.
A closer and less adversarial relationship with the EU would be something very different and achievable - perhaps we should be seeking our own bespoke trading and political relationship just as the Swiss and to an extent the Norwegians. We remain a powerful economy and to an extent there's plenty of advantageous common ground in terms of trade and economic activity we can and arguably should seek with Brussels.
A "common market" ? Well, that's a start and we did at last vote for that once.
No second
https://twitter.com/gbnews/status/1592461453793013761?s=46&t=FTBntbHrN9nwY2pT-HiyDA
We've escaped the totalitarian capitalist hegemony. Soon we will be striding with purpose towards the sunlit uplands of an independent, democratic socialist utopia.
YouGov had a poll last year asking people if the initial vote was tomorrow how would they vote - Remain had a 12% lead. But they also asked if people wanted to Rejoin, and that had just a 2% lead - which is within the margin of error of the actual referendum result.
"Were we wrong to leave" isn't the same question as "Do you want to Rejoin", so I think for Starmer this is more of an opportunity. It neutralises some of the "People's Vote" criticism he was getting, and it gives a mandate that "doing Brexit right" can be having a closer relationship with the EU than we currently have.
Or even worse - those who really couldn’t find another 1K to avoid having to chose between heating or eating were still expected to find that extra 1K under this scheme, as so many charities have been damn sure will happen since it was announced. 😟
You can't have it both ways - to simply say leaving the EU has made no difference to anything (I suppose there are a few positives such as sovereignty but some will argue you can't eat or spend sovereignty especially when times are hard) can only make people wonder if it was worth all the effort, anger and night after night of the same argument over the past six and a bit years.
I'd say I was surprised at the level of bile on display, but I'm not. Not much self awareness either. 'This "vile piece of dirt*" was mean to Jezza, what a horrible cow' seems to be the general sentiment.
*genuine comment
They also seem to think a pic of her wearing a shirt calling Corbyn a racist is a slam dunk about her awfulness.
https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1592473575654838272
Scotland
Right to Leave: 20%
Wrong to Leave: 71%
Pro-Europe +51
London
Right to Leave: 20%
Wrong to Leave: 71%
Pro-Europe +51
North
Right to Leave: 32%
Wrong to Leave: 54%
Pro-Europe +22
Rest of South
Right to Leave: 37%
Wrong to Leave: 52%
Pro-Europe +15
Midlands and Wales
Right to Leave: 37%
Wrong to Leave: 50%
Pro-Europe +13
GB
Right to Leave: 32%
Wrong to Leave: 56%
Pro-Europe +24
(this YouGov/Times poll)
We’re not going back into the EU, so they really are a waste of pixels.
@Parody_PM
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9h
An exciting opportunity has arisen to work for Dominic Raab. The ideal applicant will have experience in being verbally abused and enjoy having tomatoes thrown at them.
Not to me. Visit Poland: those guys are goin places.
EFTA perhaps, but more likely some tinkering around mutual recognition of standards in certain areas such as professional qualifications and services, like Starmer proposed.
But it might have been more effectively put to say we used to be as well off as the average German or American (whenever that was), and now we're a looong way off that and getting worse.
Certainly I can imagine one reaction to the budget tomorrow is that we appear to be broke, needing to be taxes more and more, and yet most of our services are crap, so what the heck are we paying for?
"Poles will stop coming, when we are poorer than them..."
Sam Bankman-Fried tries to explain himself
The fallen crypto CEO on what went wrong, why he did what he did, and what lies he told along the way.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23462333/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-cryptocurrency-effective-altruism-crypto-bahamas-philanthropy
"The British had the entire European banking market at their feet, total control and they threw it all away.for their stupid Brexit. We are still laughing"
https://twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1592826385667854336?s=46&t=7htwzNDvLDJDEDKUaGM7vA
The dual reasons for the stalling are pretty clear - to discredit Brexit as a concept, coralling a worn down populace into a process that ends in rejoining, and to ensure that in the interim, we have not diverged in any way that would impede the rejoining process.
This campaign isn't working terribly badly at the moment, but it does have limited road. As well as discrediting Brexit, it also makes the Government of the day look stupid and incompetent, which with all the other stupidity and incompetence at the moment, is sort of hidden, but at some point, the demand to sort things out becomes deafening, and this will happen sooner than people can be softened up to think the answer is 'rejoin', not 'get a fucking grip'. We also see Reform UK on the rise again, and with good reason - Brexit hasn't been 'done', and their case against the main parties is strong. The Government will start to get things sorted, and in that sorting there will be a natural pull to divergence from the EU.
With TV cameras we can read facial expressions, particularly the manner in which frontbenchers swivel to stare dourly at those given barely guarded criticism.
Dr Catherine Mann(MPC BoE): Small firms are the ones most damaged b/c of the paperwork
https://twitter.com/haggis_uk/status/1592907059766628352?s=46&t=7htwzNDvLDJDEDKUaGM7vA
We have the same problems that made membership of the SM so catastrophic for us in every field but finance. We don't invest enough, we consume too much, we don't train enough, our productivity is consequentially poor and we just don't seem to care that we are constantly borrowing tens of billions from the rest of the world to have a standard of living we have not earned. Brexit could have helped us in holding our political class to account for these failures with no ready excuse to hand but no, we would rather argue about irrelevancies than our real underlying problems.
Only 4 more to go...
Over the past twenty years he has probably donated more money to Hilary Clintons election campaigns than he has paid in tax?
65+ "right" leads 57-35
50-64: "wrong" leads 54-37
25-49: "wrong" leads 66-21
18-24: "wrong" leads 67-11
And whilst it's tactless to say it too loudly, the "us" that voted in 2016 will be a different "us" to the one involved in any future vote. Of course it's possible that people become massively more Eurosceptic as the retire, but it's hard to see the mechanism and I'd be interested to see the fine-grained polling evidence showing that happening.
And then the question becomes simple to state, but difficult to answer. At what point does it become possible to take the Brexit we have been bequeathed back to the shop and try to exchange it for something else? And what options will be available?
It's merely a statement of fact.
This morning, I emailed Bankman-Fried to confirm he had access to his Twitter account and this conversation had been with him. “Still me, not hacked! We talked last night,” he answered.
His lawyers did not return a request for comment.
Brexit was an epochal act of economic and political self-sabotage. Personally I suspect the economic damage is under-estimated, and the government is “lucky” that first Covid and then Ukraine has deranged the economic statistics.
I hope to return to the UK one day.
I still have a glimmer of optimism that the country will rediscover its gift for sober, pragmatic governance and unshowy prosperity.
BritNats dying off.
The future is bright.
Of fuck, here comes Diddy Starmer…
In some ways, the single market hid and covered up for underlying issues.
The boss of a high street retailer who urged the government to relax immigration rules to ease labour shortages is trying to recruit workers with basic pay below that of rivals.
Lord Wolfson of Aspley Guise, the chief executive of Next, said this week that the UK must take a different approach to migration……
Analysis of vacancies posted by Next suggests that the retailer offers workers in Britain warehouse jobs with pay rates below the market average.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2604920e-61f3-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0
Makes one nostalgic for the old conservative party
Reservoir update
South East Water
Bewl 50%
Darwell 55%
Powdermill 48%
Weir Wood 54%
https://www.southernwater.co.uk/water-for-life/reservoir-levels
South West Water
Roadford 38%
Colliford 19%
Wimbleball 29%
Stithians 18%
Burrator 100%
https://www.southwestwater.co.uk/environment/water-resources/current-reservoir-storages/
But pretending that rejoining it would make things any better without addressing the reasons it did not work for us is bordering on Einstein's definition of madness.
Only when the reverse happens will the Party return to sanity
Good to see the odd fit of sanity from you before you go back to quizzing Keir’s curry.
The leaked budget, and @Casino_Royale’s response, is much more interesting.
What I'd like to see is central govenment blooming well stumping up the cash for the things they are demanding. Then Council Tax levels can track the discretionary choices about spending, which would be better for democracy. The downside is that the taxes central government controls would have to go up.
Would doing something about social care at a national level (as in May and Johnson both tried before being howled down) sort this? Not sure, but it would help a lot.
300 years ago the successful industries were rape and pillage, and we were really, really good at those.
More recently, successful industries relied on frictionless trading with our closest neighbours.
And we were good at that
And we pissed it all away to appease the xenophobes and swivel eyed loons.
But rejoining it is a pre-requisite for any sort of prosperity, notwithstanding any discipline you talk about.
All the discipline in the world is not going to make up for the opportunities that have been sacrificed. Lower trade levels have not closed the trade deficit, and lower trade levels reduce consumer satisfaction across the board regardless of any deficit. It also reduces productivity.
I think you have a very odd idea of what history was really like, most of the time.
I support Macron's outer perimeter countries proposals and genuinely hope this can evolve to the benefit of all the countries in Europe and go a long way to mitigating the worst effects of the current Brexit
One thing is certain, both leave and remain disciples are not only tedious, but actually counter productive as each thinks it is right when in practice compromise is the only long term solution
I despair for you, so bitter and twisted by Brexit.
Dynamic alignment raises all sorts of sovreignty issues of course.
I will also be searching for policies designed to promote growth, specifically additional tax reliefs for investment and training and closer links between our excellent Universities and business.
I will say it's also quite depressing that people think the answer to all our economic problems is to rejoin the EU. I suspect the economy would grow faster but per capita is less clear as are the distributional effects. And there may be some small economic benefits from divergence. The bigger problem is no-one seems to have any answers for how to turn us from a low wage, low investment, low productivity economy into a high wage, high investment, high productivity economy. The obsession about monetary policy when inflation is largely due to China's covid policy and Putin turning off the gas is a case in point.
https://www.english-heritage.org.uk/learn/story-of-england/prehistory/commerce/
https://twitter.com/phantompower14/status/1592964964825714689?s=46&t=NTfBgwsKr_qD_0DQ4PY-mw