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YouGov Brexit tracker: “Wrong to leave” has biggest lead yet – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 16 in General
YouGov Brexit tracker: “Wrong to leave” has biggest lead yet – politicalbetting.com

? Oof!! HUGE poll from YouGov. ?“In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?”Right to Leave: 32%Wrong to Leave: 56% Largest ever gap (+24)… and that gap has been opening wider & wider over this year.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,957
    Evening all :)

    No, it won't.

    The truth is leaving was one ordeal - rejoining would be another. The only policy any Party could sensibly put forward would be to initiate negotiations with the EU over the terms under which Britain could rejoin.

    Those negotiations in and of themselves are going to take a while - if the EU insists on Euro, Schengen and Freedom of Movement, rejoining will be dead in the water. Even status quo ante bellum (so to speak) wouldn't be enough - after all, we rejected those terms.

    A closer and less adversarial relationship with the EU would be something very different and achievable - perhaps we should be seeking our own bespoke trading and political relationship just as the Swiss and to an extent the Norwegians. We remain a powerful economy and to an extent there's plenty of advantageous common ground in terms of trade and economic activity we can and arguably should seek with Brussels.

    A "common market" ? Well, that's a start and we did at last vote for that once.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,546
    edited November 16
    First?
    No second
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,219
    'The average British family is now poorer than the average German or American family, and by the end of this decade, is set to be poorer than the average Polish family on current trajectories.'

    https://twitter.com/gbnews/status/1592461453793013761?s=46&t=FTBntbHrN9nwY2pT-HiyDA
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,222
    The media keep telling everyone that multiple things that really have nothing to do with Brexit have been caused by it. Obviously, as new Labour established long ago, if you say things often enough people will eventually believe it.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,624
    Can I tick the "Right to leave, wrong to leave it to the Tories to manage the process" box?

    We've escaped the totalitarian capitalist hegemony. Soon we will be striding with purpose towards the sunlit uplands of an independent, democratic socialist utopia.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,229

    'The average British family is now poorer than the average German or American family, and by the end of this decade, is set to be poorer than the average Polish family on current trajectories.'

    https://twitter.com/gbnews/status/1592461453793013761?s=46&t=FTBntbHrN9nwY2pT-HiyDA

    I assumed we had always (at least in the last 4 decades or so) been poorer than the average German or American family.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,222

    'The average British family is now poorer than the average German or American family, and by the end of this decade, is set to be poorer than the average Polish family on current trajectories.'

    https://twitter.com/gbnews/status/1592461453793013761?s=46&t=FTBntbHrN9nwY2pT-HiyDA

    The average American family has been significantly better off than the average British family since WW2, probably earlier. The average German family was already better off than the average British family in the 1970s when we were talking about joining the EEC. What is this supposed to prove, exactly?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,101
    Jeez. This is embarrassing for Sunak. The evidence given before the Treasury Committee this afternoon on the catastrophic damage inflicted on the UK economy by the hard Brexit the PM championed is absolutely damning! https://twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/1592920524854038528/video/1
  • novanova Posts: 468
    edited November 16
    At some stage this’ll be a problem for Starmer and Sunak
    Not sure it will be.

    YouGov had a poll last year asking people if the initial vote was tomorrow how would they vote - Remain had a 12% lead. But they also asked if people wanted to Rejoin, and that had just a 2% lead - which is within the margin of error of the actual referendum result.

    "Were we wrong to leave" isn't the same question as "Do you want to Rejoin", so I think for Starmer this is more of an opportunity. It neutralises some of the "People's Vote" criticism he was getting, and it gives a mandate that "doing Brexit right" can be having a closer relationship with the EU than we currently have.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,502
    edited November 16

    Andy_JS said:

    Inflation

    Italy 12.8%
    Germany 11.6%
    UK 11.1%

    Brexit strikes again.
    I would though be wary with some comparisons, do they calculate the same as we do, with house price in or out for example. And what measures are other countries taking to reduce their inflation rate? For example you do know UK inflation rate announced today would be 13.8 not 11.1 without government policy bucking the energy market? And that doesn’t come free, in fact it doesn’t come cheap. Bucking UK energy market till April - will be interesting how OBR cost it, but unlikely less than £50bn based on Truss GDP adverts for the full whack version.
    I am convinced that the energy price should be capped handsomely for the first 'xx' used and go up in bands thereafter. This would encourage energy saving enormously, and reassure the poor, who are low users of energy. It is mad to subsidise heating peoples' pools etc. The whole thing is mad frankly, but that part of it is extra mad.
    I hope there isn’t a point in next 5 years everyone really feeling it and looks back and goes - wow, that was a pricey giveaway, did we really get our moneys worth? How we would like some of that to play with now.

    Or even worse - those who really couldn’t find another 1K to avoid having to chose between heating or eating were still expected to find that extra 1K under this scheme, as so many charities have been damn sure will happen since it was announced. 😟
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,957
    DavidL said:

    The media keep telling everyone that multiple things that really have nothing to do with Brexit have been caused by it. Obviously, as new Labour established long ago, if you say things often enough people will eventually believe it.

    Nice try but to simply say nothing that has happened since 2016 has anything to do with the fact we left the European Union rather begs the question why we bothered to leave in the first place as it is or was so marginal and insubstantial and irrelevant to the warp and weft of events.

    You can't have it both ways - to simply say leaving the EU has made no difference to anything (I suppose there are a few positives such as sovereignty but some will argue you can't eat or spend sovereignty especially when times are hard) can only make people wonder if it was worth all the effort, anger and night after night of the same argument over the past six and a bit years.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,229
    edited November 16
    RH1992 said:

    Rachel Riley has been awarded £50,000 in damages after a political blogger accused her of bullying a teenage girl online.

    The co-presenter of Countdown sued Mike Sivier for libel after he described her as a “serial abuser” in an article he published on his website.

    The piece was published in 2019 and discussed a debate on Twitter about antisemitism in Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party. It referenced tweets exchanged between Riley, whose mother is Jewish, and a user who identified as a 16-year-old girl called Rose.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/countdown-presenter-rachel-riley-wins-50-000-for-abuser-libel-vm6nb32px

    I had a search on Twitter earlier to see how the left antisemites were taking it. As expected, total denial and several instances of repeating the libellous tweets.

    Rachel's chosen charity has found itself a free cash machine if she were to go after some of them too.
    Seems to be a concerted effort on there to do a "Rachel Riley may not be a 'serial abuser' but she said something mean about Jeremy Corbyn/insert other comments she has made"

    I'd say I was surprised at the level of bile on display, but I'm not. Not much self awareness either. 'This "vile piece of dirt*" was mean to Jezza, what a horrible cow' seems to be the general sentiment.

    *genuine comment

    They also seem to think a pic of her wearing a shirt calling Corbyn a racist is a slam dunk about her awfulness.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,101
    The Luftwaffe set fire to the London Stock Exchange in 1940 and then blasted it with the shockwave of a supersonic missile in 1945 and still did less damage to it than we did.
    https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1592473575654838272
  • DavidL said:

    The media keep telling everyone that multiple things that really have nothing to do with Brexit have been caused by it. Obviously, as new Labour established long ago, if you say things often enough people will eventually believe it.

    Well Brexiteers never blamed the EU for multiple things that were nothing to do with the EU.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,219
    edited November 16
    “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?”

    Scotland
    Right to Leave: 20%
    Wrong to Leave: 71%
    Pro-Europe +51

    London
    Right to Leave: 20%
    Wrong to Leave: 71%
    Pro-Europe +51

    North
    Right to Leave: 32%
    Wrong to Leave: 54%
    Pro-Europe +22

    Rest of South
    Right to Leave: 37%
    Wrong to Leave: 52%
    Pro-Europe +15

    Midlands and Wales
    Right to Leave: 37%
    Wrong to Leave: 50%
    Pro-Europe +13

    GB
    Right to Leave: 32%
    Wrong to Leave: 56%
    Pro-Europe +24

    (this YouGov/Times poll)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,160
    Not much point in these polls.

    We’re not going back into the EU, so they really are a waste of pixels.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,555
    Parody Rishi Sunak
    @Parody_PM
    ·
    9h
    An exciting opportunity has arisen to work for Dominic Raab. The ideal applicant will have experience in being verbally abused and enjoy having tomatoes thrown at them.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,219
    kle4 said:

    'The average British family is now poorer than the average German or American family, and by the end of this decade, is set to be poorer than the average Polish family on current trajectories.'

    https://twitter.com/gbnews/status/1592461453793013761?s=46&t=FTBntbHrN9nwY2pT-HiyDA

    I assumed we had always (at least in the last 4 decades or so) been poorer than the average German or American family.
    But the Polish comparison will be a shock to many.

    Not to me. Visit Poland: those guys are goin places.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,229

    Not much point in these polls.

    We’re not going back into the EU, so they really are a waste of pixels.

    It may impact policies in other wasys, if people think it has been a bad choice, even if they still wouldn't reverse it (and the EU wouldn't want to either).
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 784

    Not much point in these polls.

    We’re not going back into the EU, so they really are a waste of pixels.

    Exactly this. It's time for the sensibles to get a deal that brings us closer to ease the friction while accepting that we won't be rejoining.

    EFTA perhaps, but more likely some tinkering around mutual recognition of standards in certain areas such as professional qualifications and services, like Starmer proposed.
  • Scott_xP said:
    As a trivial aside, one can't help but feel sorry for all the lady comedians and impressionists who thought they'd got it made when Liz Truss became Prime Minister, like Nerine Skinner as Liv Struss on Youtube.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,219
    Scott_xP said:

    Brexit increasingly resembles the war on drugs. Everyone can see that it is failing, but pretending it can work is a precondition for a position of authority. https://inews.co.uk/opinion/however-grim-the-uks-situation-tory-mps-have-one-rule-dont-mention-brexit-1974630?ito=twitter_share_article-top

    Keir Starmer is Nancy Reagan.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,229

    kle4 said:

    'The average British family is now poorer than the average German or American family, and by the end of this decade, is set to be poorer than the average Polish family on current trajectories.'

    https://twitter.com/gbnews/status/1592461453793013761?s=46&t=FTBntbHrN9nwY2pT-HiyDA

    I assumed we had always (at least in the last 4 decades or so) been poorer than the average German or American family.
    But the Polish comparison will be a shock to many.

    Not to me. Visit Poland: those guys are goin places.
    Yes, the second part if accurate will get people going, particularly given the big rise in polish residents presumably on the basis they felt they could earn more for their families here or would be better off here.

    But it might have been more effectively put to say we used to be as well off as the average German or American (whenever that was), and now we're a looong way off that and getting worse.

    Certainly I can imagine one reaction to the budget tomorrow is that we appear to be broke, needing to be taxes more and more, and yet most of our services are crap, so what the heck are we paying for?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,222

    DavidL said:

    The media keep telling everyone that multiple things that really have nothing to do with Brexit have been caused by it. Obviously, as new Labour established long ago, if you say things often enough people will eventually believe it.

    Well Brexiteers never blamed the EU for multiple things that were nothing to do with the EU.
    Of course they did. And it was equally as tedious.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,101
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    'The average British family is now poorer than the average German or American family, and by the end of this decade, is set to be poorer than the average Polish family on current trajectories.'

    https://twitter.com/gbnews/status/1592461453793013761?s=46&t=FTBntbHrN9nwY2pT-HiyDA

    I assumed we had always (at least in the last 4 decades or so) been poorer than the average German or American family.
    But the Polish comparison will be a shock to many.

    Not to me. Visit Poland: those guys are goin places.
    Yes, the second part if accurate will get people going, particularly given the big rise in polish residents presumably on the basis they felt they could earn more for their families here or would be better off here.

    But it might have been more effectively put to say we used to be as well off as the average German or American (whenever that was), and now we're a looong way off that and getting worse.

    Certainly I can imagine one reaction to the budget tomorrow is that we appear to be broke, needing to be taxes more and more, and yet most of our services are crap, so what the heck are we paying for?
    Maybe BoZo should have put that on the side of the bus.

    "Poles will stop coming, when we are poorer than them..."
  • It is entirely possible that Sam Bankman-Fried has never met let alone heard of a lawyer.

    Sam Bankman-Fried tries to explain himself

    The fallen crypto CEO on what went wrong, why he did what he did, and what lies he told along the way.


    https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23462333/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-cryptocurrency-effective-altruism-crypto-bahamas-philanthropy
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,957
    When you get the leaders of such solid Conservative County Councils as Hampshire and Kent saying they may be forced to issue Section 114 notices this winter, you know there's a huge crisis building in local Government finance and service provision.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,219
    Comment from a Dutch banker here,

    "The British had the entire European banking market at their feet, total control and they threw it all away.for their stupid Brexit. We are still laughing"


    https://twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1592826385667854336?s=46&t=7htwzNDvLDJDEDKUaGM7vA
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,471
    In my opinion, those who rule Britain, the civil service, quangocracy, and various (though not all) influential politicians, want to keep Britain from properly 'Brexiting' for a variety of reasons. By properly Brexiting, I mean establishing effective control of our borders, arrangements to conduct trade with the EU in a satisfactory manner, diverging from EU rules when it is in the national interest to do so (eg big changes to VAT), and laying aside long term strategical EU projects that don't make sense in the long term post-Brexit, which would include HS2 (likely to survive again despite there being no fucking reason for it), and electric interconnectors to Germany.

    The dual reasons for the stalling are pretty clear - to discredit Brexit as a concept, coralling a worn down populace into a process that ends in rejoining, and to ensure that in the interim, we have not diverged in any way that would impede the rejoining process.

    This campaign isn't working terribly badly at the moment, but it does have limited road. As well as discrediting Brexit, it also makes the Government of the day look stupid and incompetent, which with all the other stupidity and incompetence at the moment, is sort of hidden, but at some point, the demand to sort things out becomes deafening, and this will happen sooner than people can be softened up to think the answer is 'rejoin', not 'get a fucking grip'. We also see Reform UK on the rise again, and with good reason - Brexit hasn't been 'done', and their case against the main parties is strong. The Government will start to get things sorted, and in that sorting there will be a natural pull to divergence from the EU.
  • On topic, my belief is that we'd never rejoin the EU, at best we'd join the single market, but more the polling goes in this direction, then rejoining will inevitably become part of the political discourse.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,502

    So, a screw of the workers yet again whilst those out of work are protected.

    Why aren't I surprised.

    The other day my father received a letter from the government telling him he's getting a £500 winter fuel allowance, because you know he really needs it.

    He's donating it to charity.

    Absolute fucking pissing money up the wall for those who don't need it.
    My lay is because I anticipate all polling hell is going to be let loose on Rishi following this budget, and Tory MP mutterings will start again.

    Keir Starmer won't be next PM if he's defenestrated before the next election. And there are still potentially over 2 years to go.
    I spoke to a Tory MP* the other day, they kinda agree with your assessment, they reckon once Boris Johnson loses a recall election then the firewall against Rishi collapses.

    Right now the fear of Boris Johnson/Sir Graham Brady's revelation is keeping Sunak safe.

    *Not that one.
    I got a sense of impatient tense mood on the Tory front and back benches today. Certainly on migrant crossings and paying more tax without cutting big spending projects first.

    With TV cameras we can read facial expressions, particularly the manner in which frontbenchers swivel to stare dourly at those given barely guarded criticism.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,101

    It is entirely possible that Sam Bankman-Fried has never met let alone heard of a lawyer.

    Sam Bankman-Fried tries to explain himself

    The fallen crypto CEO on what went wrong, why he did what he did, and what lies he told along the way.


    https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23462333/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-cryptocurrency-effective-altruism-crypto-bahamas-philanthropy

    In passing, it was noted that if a woman dressed like that nobody would give her $billions, but a guy, no problem.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,513
    DavidL said:

    'The average British family is now poorer than the average German or American family, and by the end of this decade, is set to be poorer than the average Polish family on current trajectories.'

    https://twitter.com/gbnews/status/1592461453793013761?s=46&t=FTBntbHrN9nwY2pT-HiyDA

    The average American family has been significantly better off than the average British family since WW2, probably earlier. The average German family was already better off than the average British family in the 1970s when we were talking about joining the EEC. What is this supposed to prove, exactly?
    This is GB News though, so the audience is only now ready for hard truths circa 1960.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,219
    Dr Swati Dhingra(MPC BoE): It's undeniable that we're seeing a much bigger slow down in trade, in the UK, compared to the rest of the world, b/c of brexit... we're definitely underperforming

    Dr Catherine Mann(MPC BoE): Small firms are the ones most damaged b/c of the paperwork


    https://twitter.com/haggis_uk/status/1592907059766628352?s=46&t=7htwzNDvLDJDEDKUaGM7vA
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,222
    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    The media keep telling everyone that multiple things that really have nothing to do with Brexit have been caused by it. Obviously, as new Labour established long ago, if you say things often enough people will eventually believe it.

    Nice try but to simply say nothing that has happened since 2016 has anything to do with the fact we left the European Union rather begs the question why we bothered to leave in the first place as it is or was so marginal and insubstantial and irrelevant to the warp and weft of events.

    You can't have it both ways - to simply say leaving the EU has made no difference to anything (I suppose there are a few positives such as sovereignty but some will argue you can't eat or spend sovereignty especially when times are hard) can only make people wonder if it was worth all the effort, anger and night after night of the same argument over the past six and a bit years.
    I sometimes wonder if it was worth it myself. I have consistently said that the effect of Brexit has been vastly overstated by both its proponents and opponents alike.

    We have the same problems that made membership of the SM so catastrophic for us in every field but finance. We don't invest enough, we consume too much, we don't train enough, our productivity is consequentially poor and we just don't seem to care that we are constantly borrowing tens of billions from the rest of the world to have a standard of living we have not earned. Brexit could have helped us in holding our political class to account for these failures with no ready excuse to hand but no, we would rather argue about irrelevancies than our real underlying problems.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,101

    In my opinion, those who rule Britain, the civil service, quangocracy, and various (though not all) influential politicians, want to keep Britain from properly 'Brexiting' for a variety of reasons.

    Wow, still in stage 1 !

    Only 4 more to go...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,502

    On topic, my belief is that we'd never rejoin the EU, at best we'd join the single market, but more the polling goes in this direction, then rejoining will inevitably become part of the political discourse.

    With reference your avatar, was that a different Donald Trump in those days?

    Over the past twenty years he has probably donated more money to Hilary Clintons election campaigns than he has paid in tax?
  • “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?”

    Scotland
    Right to Leave: 20%
    Wrong to Leave: 71%
    Pro-Europe +51

    London
    Right to Leave: 20%
    Wrong to Leave: 71%
    Pro-Europe +51

    North
    Right to Leave: 32%
    Wrong to Leave: 54%
    Pro-Europe +22

    Rest of South
    Right to Leave: 37%
    Wrong to Leave: 52%
    Pro-Europe +15

    Midlands and Wales
    Right to Leave: 37%
    Wrong to Leave: 50%
    Pro-Europe +13

    GB
    Right to Leave: 32%
    Wrong to Leave: 56%
    Pro-Europe +24

    (this YouGov/Times poll)

    The more significant breaks are the ones by age:

    65+ "right" leads 57-35
    50-64: "wrong" leads 54-37
    25-49: "wrong" leads 66-21
    18-24: "wrong" leads 67-11

    And whilst it's tactless to say it too loudly, the "us" that voted in 2016 will be a different "us" to the one involved in any future vote. Of course it's possible that people become massively more Eurosceptic as the retire, but it's hard to see the mechanism and I'd be interested to see the fine-grained polling evidence showing that happening.

    And then the question becomes simple to state, but difficult to answer. At what point does it become possible to take the Brexit we have been bequeathed back to the shop and try to exchange it for something else? And what options will be available?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,304

    Comment from a Dutch banker here,

    "The British had the entire European banking market at their feet, total control and they threw it all away.for their stupid Brexit. We are still laughing"


    https://twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1592826385667854336?s=46&t=7htwzNDvLDJDEDKUaGM7vA

    You understand that the archer_rs account is entirely fictional, right? Acknowledged even in the pro-eu twitter community.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,471
    Scott_xP said:

    In my opinion, those who rule Britain, the civil service, quangocracy, and various (though not all) influential politicians, want to keep Britain from properly 'Brexiting' for a variety of reasons.

    Wow, still in stage 1 !

    Only 4 more to go...
    Interesting use of language - hopefully it indicates you're seeing someone who's helping you work on some of those emotions.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,267

    “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?”

    Scotland
    Right to Leave: 20%
    Wrong to Leave: 71%
    Pro-Europe +51

    London
    Right to Leave: 20%
    Wrong to Leave: 71%
    Pro-Europe +51

    North
    Right to Leave: 32%
    Wrong to Leave: 54%
    Pro-Europe +22

    Rest of South
    Right to Leave: 37%
    Wrong to Leave: 52%
    Pro-Europe +15

    Midlands and Wales
    Right to Leave: 37%
    Wrong to Leave: 50%
    Pro-Europe +13

    GB
    Right to Leave: 32%
    Wrong to Leave: 56%
    Pro-Europe +24

    (this YouGov/Times poll)

    The more significant breaks are the ones by age:

    65+ "right" leads 57-35
    50-64: "wrong" leads 54-37
    25-49: "wrong" leads 66-21
    18-24: "wrong" leads 67-11

    And whilst it's tactless to say it too loudly, the "us" that voted in 2016 will be a different "us" to the one involved in any future vote. Of course it's possible that people become massively more Eurosceptic as the retire, but it's hard to see the mechanism and I'd be interested to see the fine-grained polling evidence showing that happening.

    And then the question becomes simple to state, but difficult to answer. At what point does it become possible to take the Brexit we have been bequeathed back to the shop and try to exchange it for something else? And what options will be available?
    It isn't tactless at all to say it's already a different us than in 2016.
    It's merely a statement of fact.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,502
    stodge said:

    When you get the leaders of such solid Conservative County Councils as Hampshire and Kent saying they may be forced to issue Section 114 notices this winter, you know there's a huge crisis building in local Government finance and service provision.

    What do you suggest is the answer?
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 141

    In my opinion, those who rule Britain, the civil service, quangocracy, and various (though not all) influential politicians, want to keep Britain from properly 'Brexiting' for a variety of reasons. By properly Brexiting, I mean establishing effective control of our borders, arrangements to conduct trade with the EU in a satisfactory manner, diverging from EU rules when it is in the national interest to do so (eg big changes to VAT), and laying aside long term strategical EU projects that don't make sense in the long term post-Brexit, which would include HS2 (likely to survive again despite there being no fucking reason for it), and electric interconnectors to Germany.

    The dual reasons for the stalling are pretty clear - to discredit Brexit as a concept, coralling a worn down populace into a process that ends in rejoining, and to ensure that in the interim, we have not diverged in any way that would impede the rejoining process.

    This campaign isn't working terribly badly at the moment, but it does have limited road. As well as discrediting Brexit, it also makes the Government of the day look stupid and incompetent, which with all the other stupidity and incompetence at the moment, is sort of hidden, but at some point, the demand to sort things out becomes deafening, and this will happen sooner than people can be softened up to think the answer is 'rejoin', not 'get a fucking grip'. We also see Reform UK on the rise again, and with good reason - Brexit hasn't been 'done', and their case against the main parties is strong. The Government will start to get
    things sorted, and in that sorting there will be a natural pull to divergence from the EU.

    The problem with Communism is that it hasn’t been implemented properly yet…
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,229

    It is entirely possible that Sam Bankman-Fried has never met let alone heard of a lawyer.

    Sam Bankman-Fried tries to explain himself

    The fallen crypto CEO on what went wrong, why he did what he did, and what lies he told along the way.


    https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23462333/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-cryptocurrency-effective-altruism-crypto-bahamas-philanthropy

    Sounds like the reporter can hardly believe what he was saying either.

    This morning, I emailed Bankman-Fried to confirm he had access to his Twitter account and this conversation had been with him. “Still me, not hacked! We talked last night,” he answered.

    His lawyers did not return a request for comment.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,513
    edited November 16
    I never expected Britain to rejoin but now I think it’s 50/50 that it will, although of course not for many years.

    Brexit was an epochal act of economic and political self-sabotage. Personally I suspect the economic damage is under-estimated, and the government is “lucky” that first Covid and then Ukraine has deranged the economic statistics.

    I hope to return to the UK one day.
    I still have a glimmer of optimism that the country will rediscover its gift for sober, pragmatic governance and unshowy prosperity.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,502

    Scott_xP said:
    As a trivial aside, one can't help but feel sorry for all the lady comedians and impressionists who thought they'd got it made when Liz Truss became Prime Minister, like Nerine Skinner as Liv Struss on Youtube.
    “A short stint that was still too long” 🤭
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The media keep telling everyone that multiple things that really have nothing to do with Brexit have been caused by it. Obviously, as new Labour established long ago, if you say things often enough people will eventually believe it.

    Well Brexiteers never blamed the EU for multiple things that were nothing to do with the EU.
    Of course they did. And it was equally as tedious.
    Karma's a bitch.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,219

    “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?”

    Scotland
    Right to Leave: 20%
    Wrong to Leave: 71%
    Pro-Europe +51

    London
    Right to Leave: 20%
    Wrong to Leave: 71%
    Pro-Europe +51

    North
    Right to Leave: 32%
    Wrong to Leave: 54%
    Pro-Europe +22

    Rest of South
    Right to Leave: 37%
    Wrong to Leave: 52%
    Pro-Europe +15

    Midlands and Wales
    Right to Leave: 37%
    Wrong to Leave: 50%
    Pro-Europe +13

    GB
    Right to Leave: 32%
    Wrong to Leave: 56%
    Pro-Europe +24

    (this YouGov/Times poll)

    The more significant breaks are the ones by age:

    65+ "right" leads 57-35
    50-64: "wrong" leads 54-37
    25-49: "wrong" leads 66-21
    18-24: "wrong" leads 67-11

    And whilst it's tactless to say it too loudly, the "us" that voted in 2016 will be a different "us" to the one involved in any future vote. Of course it's possible that people become massively more Eurosceptic as the retire, but it's hard to see the mechanism and I'd be interested to see the fine-grained polling evidence showing that happening.

    And then the question becomes simple to state, but difficult to answer. At what point does it become possible to take the Brexit we have been bequeathed back to the shop and try to exchange it for something else? And what options will be available?
    Brexiteers dying off.
    BritNats dying off.

    The future is bright.

    Of fuck, here comes Diddy Starmer…
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,471

    On topic, my belief is that we'd never rejoin the EU, at best we'd join the single market, but more the polling goes in this direction, then rejoining will inevitably become part of the political discourse.

    The polling trend will only continue as long as the shitshow continues. The shitshow is actually quite a difficult show to keep on the road imo.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,304

    “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?”

    Scotland
    Right to Leave: 20%
    Wrong to Leave: 71%
    Pro-Europe +51

    London
    Right to Leave: 20%
    Wrong to Leave: 71%
    Pro-Europe +51

    North
    Right to Leave: 32%
    Wrong to Leave: 54%
    Pro-Europe +22

    Rest of South
    Right to Leave: 37%
    Wrong to Leave: 52%
    Pro-Europe +15

    Midlands and Wales
    Right to Leave: 37%
    Wrong to Leave: 50%
    Pro-Europe +13

    GB
    Right to Leave: 32%
    Wrong to Leave: 56%
    Pro-Europe +24

    (this YouGov/Times poll)

    The more significant breaks are the ones by age:

    65+ "right" leads 57-35
    50-64: "wrong" leads 54-37
    25-49: "wrong" leads 66-21
    18-24: "wrong" leads 67-11

    And whilst it's tactless to say it too loudly, the "us" that voted in 2016 will be a different "us" to the one involved in any future vote. Of course it's possible that people become massively more Eurosceptic as the retire, but it's hard to see the mechanism and I'd be interested to see the fine-grained polling evidence showing that happening.

    And then the question becomes simple to state, but difficult to answer. At what point does it become possible to take the Brexit we have been bequeathed back to the shop and try to exchange it for something else? And what options will be available?
    Brexiteers dying off.
    BritNats dying off.

    The future is bright.

    Of fuck, here comes Diddy Starmer…
    Do you think a Starmer government will increase or decrease pro-scotIndy sentiment?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,513
    DavidL said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    The media keep telling everyone that multiple things that really have nothing to do with Brexit have been caused by it. Obviously, as new Labour established long ago, if you say things often enough people will eventually believe it.

    Nice try but to simply say nothing that has happened since 2016 has anything to do with the fact we left the European Union rather begs the question why we bothered to leave in the first place as it is or was so marginal and insubstantial and irrelevant to the warp and weft of events.

    You can't have it both ways - to simply say leaving the EU has made no difference to anything (I suppose there are a few positives such as sovereignty but some will argue you can't eat or spend sovereignty especially when times are hard) can only make people wonder if it was worth all the effort, anger and night after night of the same argument over the past six and a bit years.
    I sometimes wonder if it was worth it myself. I have consistently said that the effect of Brexit has been vastly overstated by both its proponents and opponents alike.

    We have the same problems that made membership of the SM so catastrophic for us in every field but finance. We don't invest enough, we consume too much, we don't train enough, our productivity is consequentially poor and we just don't seem to care that we are constantly borrowing tens of billions from the rest of the world to have a standard of living we have not earned. Brexit could have helped us in holding our political class to account for these failures with no ready excuse to hand but no, we would rather argue about irrelevancies than our real underlying problems.
    It is the latter issues you enumerate, rather than the single market itself, you keep conflating the two.

    In some ways, the single market hid and covered up for underlying issues.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,101
    carnforth said:

    Do you think a Starmer government will increase or decrease pro-scotIndy sentiment?

    My column in the Times today looks at Sturgeon's options for an election where Labour threatens a landslide. https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/1592564986169155585
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,046
    Well there’s a surprise…..

    The boss of a high street retailer who urged the government to relax immigration rules to ease labour shortages is trying to recruit workers with basic pay below that of rivals.

    Lord Wolfson of Aspley Guise, the chief executive of Next, said this week that the UK must take a different approach to migration……

    Analysis of vacancies posted by Next suggests that the retailer offers workers in Britain warehouse jobs with pay rates below the market average.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2604920e-61f3-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,101
    “As a public official I’m neutral on Brexit per se, but I’m not neutral in saying these are what we think are the most likely economic effects of it”. Brexit and drop in workforce harming economic recovery, says Bank governor https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/16/brexit-and-drop-in-workforce-harming-britain-economic-recovery-says-bank-governor?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,471

    I never expected Britain to rejoin but now I think it’s 50/50 that it will, although of course not for many years.

    Brexit was an epochal act of economic and political self-sabotage. Personally I suspect the economic damage is under-estimated, and the government is “lucky” that first Covid and then Ukraine has deranged the economic statistics.

    I hope to return to the UK one day.
    I still have a glimmer of optimism that the country will rediscover its gift for sober, pragmatic governance and unshowy prosperity.

    A sober and pragmatic Government could manage Brexit well, and be successful outside the EU. The Brexit shitshow depends on Governments being of poor quality. That's the problem for your side. As soon as things start to be managed soberly and pragmatically, rejoin is gone. As they say in Scotland, it's on a shoogly peg.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,160
    edited November 16
    What is Brady Old Lady’s ‘revelation’ that Eagles is on about on the previous thread?
  • TresTres Posts: 1,338
    DavidL said:

    The media keep telling everyone that multiple things that really have nothing to do with Brexit have been caused by it. Obviously, as new Labour established long ago, if you say things often enough people will eventually believe it.

    But the media spent decades telling us multiple things that had nothing to do with the EU had been caused by it. Funny old world innit?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,250
    Something's got to give. Leavers can't keep telling themselves that Boris was amazing and that's that. I suspect that the Boris Leavers will soon become like the GOP Trumpites - figures of ridicule and scorn whom the public activity seek to punish - while Tory Brexit realists are given more of a hearing. A spanking victory by Sir Keir would probably speed up that process, and the Tories should welcome it if they had any sense. Boris and Brexit are killing them.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,023
    edited November 16
    Just listening to Ken Clarke on Sky and the conservative party have lost a very wise politician amongst others as they fell for the ERG and mishandled brexit

    Makes one nostalgic for the old conservative party
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,471
    edited November 16
    maxh said:

    In my opinion, those who rule Britain, the civil service, quangocracy, and various (though not all) influential politicians, want to keep Britain from properly 'Brexiting' for a variety of reasons. By properly Brexiting, I mean establishing effective control of our borders, arrangements to conduct trade with the EU in a satisfactory manner, diverging from EU rules when it is in the national interest to do so (eg big changes to VAT), and laying aside long term strategical EU projects that don't make sense in the long term post-Brexit, which would include HS2 (likely to survive again despite there being no fucking reason for it), and electric interconnectors to Germany.

    The dual reasons for the stalling are pretty clear - to discredit Brexit as a concept, coralling a worn down populace into a process that ends in rejoining, and to ensure that in the interim, we have not diverged in any way that would impede the rejoining process.

    This campaign isn't working terribly badly at the moment, but it does have limited road. As well as discrediting Brexit, it also makes the Government of the day look stupid and incompetent, which with all the other stupidity and incompetence at the moment, is sort of hidden, but at some point, the demand to sort things out becomes deafening, and this will happen sooner than people can be softened up to think the answer is 'rejoin', not 'get a fucking grip'. We also see Reform UK on the rise again, and with good reason - Brexit hasn't been 'done', and their case against the main parties is strong. The Government will start to get
    things sorted, and in that sorting there will be a natural pull to divergence from the EU.

    The problem with Communism is that it hasn’t been implemented properly yet…
    Britain being an independent nation was implemented and operated successfully for around 300 years. The position that this cannot now be the case has no basis in logic. You believe it for emotional reasons.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,930
    O/T

    Reservoir update

    South East Water

    Bewl 50%
    Darwell 55%
    Powdermill 48%
    Weir Wood 54%

    https://www.southernwater.co.uk/water-for-life/reservoir-levels

    South West Water

    Roadford 38%
    Colliford 19%
    Wimbleball 29%
    Stithians 18%
    Burrator 100%

    https://www.southwestwater.co.uk/environment/water-resources/current-reservoir-storages/
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,513

    Something's got to give. Leavers can't keep telling themselves that Boris was amazing and that's that. I suspect that the Boris Leavers will soon become like the GOP Trumpites - figures of ridicule and scorn whom the public activity seek to punish - while Tory Brexit realists are given more of a hearing. A spanking victory by Sir Keir would probably speed up that process, and the Tories should welcome it if they had any sense. Boris and Brexit are killing them.

    Yes. I believe this is the correct diagnosis and prediction.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,222

    DavidL said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    The media keep telling everyone that multiple things that really have nothing to do with Brexit have been caused by it. Obviously, as new Labour established long ago, if you say things often enough people will eventually believe it.

    Nice try but to simply say nothing that has happened since 2016 has anything to do with the fact we left the European Union rather begs the question why we bothered to leave in the first place as it is or was so marginal and insubstantial and irrelevant to the warp and weft of events.

    You can't have it both ways - to simply say leaving the EU has made no difference to anything (I suppose there are a few positives such as sovereignty but some will argue you can't eat or spend sovereignty especially when times are hard) can only make people wonder if it was worth all the effort, anger and night after night of the same argument over the past six and a bit years.
    I sometimes wonder if it was worth it myself. I have consistently said that the effect of Brexit has been vastly overstated by both its proponents and opponents alike.

    We have the same problems that made membership of the SM so catastrophic for us in every field but finance. We don't invest enough, we consume too much, we don't train enough, our productivity is consequentially poor and we just don't seem to care that we are constantly borrowing tens of billions from the rest of the world to have a standard of living we have not earned. Brexit could have helped us in holding our political class to account for these failures with no ready excuse to hand but no, we would rather argue about irrelevancies than our real underlying problems.
    It is the latter issues you enumerate, rather than the single market itself, you keep conflating the two.

    In some ways, the single market hid and covered up for underlying issues.
    No it didn't it exposed them in a ruinous trade deficit that we ignored. And, for the nth time there was nothing wrong with the SM. It was, in theory, a good idea. What was wrong was the economic policies we implemented in this country whilst a part of it. A SM is both an opportunity and a discipline. We refused to be disciplined and paid the price.

    But pretending that rejoining it would make things any better without addressing the reasons it did not work for us is bordering on Einstein's definition of madness.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,101

    Something's got to give. Leavers can't keep telling themselves that Boris was amazing and that's that. I suspect that the Boris Leavers will soon become like the GOP Trumpites - figures of ridicule and scorn whom the public activity seek to punish - while Tory Brexit realists are given more of a hearing. A spanking victory by Sir Keir would probably speed up that process, and the Tories should welcome it if they had any sense. Boris and Brexit are killing them.

    BoZo purged the Conservative and Unionists in favour of Brexit acolytes.

    Only when the reverse happens will the Party return to sanity
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,513

    Just listening to Ken Clarke on Sky and the conservative party have lost a very wise politician amongst others as they fell for the ERG and mishandled brexit

    Makes one nostalgic for the old conservative party

    As did you, for some years at least.
    Good to see the odd fit of sanity from you before you go back to quizzing Keir’s curry.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,513
    Slightly annoying to see another Brexit thread.

    The leaked budget, and @Casino_Royale’s response, is much more interesting.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,769
    edited November 16

    stodge said:

    When you get the leaders of such solid Conservative County Councils as Hampshire and Kent saying they may be forced to issue Section 114 notices this winter, you know there's a huge crisis building in local Government finance and service provision.

    What do you suggest is the answer?
    The underlying problem is that councils are being squeezed by the government from two directions. On one hand, they have no choice but to spend lots of money on social care- it's statutory, expensive and there's not much to be had in the way of efficiency gains. in Havering, that's now about 70% of the budget. On the other, their income is constrained by central government, due to the rules limiting Council Tax increases. Most councils have already stripped any functions that are remotely discretionary, and are heading for the point where their maximum possible income will be less than their minimum possible expenditure.

    What I'd like to see is central govenment blooming well stumping up the cash for the things they are demanding. Then Council Tax levels can track the discretionary choices about spending, which would be better for democracy. The downside is that the taxes central government controls would have to go up.

    Would doing something about social care at a national level (as in May and Johnson both tried before being howled down) sort this? Not sure, but it would help a lot.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,303

    I never expected Britain to rejoin but now I think it’s 50/50 that it will, although of course not for many years.

    Brexit was an epochal act of economic and political self-sabotage. Personally I suspect the economic damage is under-estimated, and the government is “lucky” that first Covid and then Ukraine has deranged the economic statistics.

    I hope to return to the UK one day.
    I still have a glimmer of optimism that the country will rediscover its gift for sober, pragmatic governance and unshowy prosperity.

    A sober and pragmatic Government could manage Brexit well, and be successful outside the EU. The Brexit shitshow depends on Governments being of poor quality. That's the problem for your side. As soon as things start to be managed soberly and pragmatically, rejoin is gone. As they say in Scotland, it's on a shoogly peg.
    Brexit can only be managed well by rendering it Brexit in name only. The other alternative is full on market fundamentalism - but as Truss discovered, even the markets don't like that. What we have now, underfunded European social democracy without the single market, isn't a growth model.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,101

    Britain being an independent nation was implemented and operated successfully for around 300 years. The position that this cannot now be the case has no basis in logic.

    It really does though.

    300 years ago the successful industries were rape and pillage, and we were really, really good at those.

    More recently, successful industries relied on frictionless trading with our closest neighbours.

    And we were good at that

    And we pissed it all away to appease the xenophobes and swivel eyed loons.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,304

    I never expected Britain to rejoin but now I think it’s 50/50 that it will, although of course not for many years.

    Brexit was an epochal act of economic and political self-sabotage. Personally I suspect the economic damage is under-estimated, and the government is “lucky” that first Covid and then Ukraine has deranged the economic statistics.

    I hope to return to the UK one day.
    I still have a glimmer of optimism that the country will rediscover its gift for sober, pragmatic governance and unshowy prosperity.

    A sober and pragmatic Government could manage Brexit well, and be successful outside the EU. The Brexit shitshow depends on Governments being of poor quality. That's the problem for your side. As soon as things start to be managed soberly and pragmatically, rejoin is gone. As they say in Scotland, it's on a shoogly peg.
    Brexit can only be managed well by rendering it Brexit in name only. The other alternative is full on market fundamentalism - but as Truss discovered, even the markets don't like that. What we have now, underfunded European social democracy without the single market, isn't a growth model.
    Would you count simple dynamic alignment (Theresa May brexit) BINO, or only full EEA or Switzerland-style almost-EEA?
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 141

    maxh said:

    In my opinion, those who rule Britain, the civil service, quangocracy, and various (though not all) influential politicians, want to keep Britain from properly 'Brexiting' for a variety of reasons. By properly Brexiting, I mean establishing effective control of our borders, arrangements to conduct trade with the EU in a satisfactory manner, diverging from EU rules when it is in the national interest to do so (eg big changes to VAT), and laying aside long term strategical EU projects that don't make sense in the long term post-Brexit, which would include HS2 (likely to survive again despite there being no fucking reason for it), and electric interconnectors to Germany.

    The dual reasons for the stalling are pretty clear - to discredit Brexit as a concept, coralling a worn down populace into a process that ends in rejoining, and to ensure that in the interim, we have not diverged in any way that would impede the rejoining process.

    This campaign isn't working terribly badly at the moment, but it does have limited road. As well as discrediting Brexit, it also makes the Government of the day look stupid and incompetent, which with all the other stupidity and incompetence at the moment, is sort of hidden, but at some point, the demand to sort things out becomes deafening, and this will happen sooner than people can be softened up to think the answer is 'rejoin', not 'get a fucking grip'. We also see Reform UK on the rise again, and with good reason - Brexit hasn't been 'done', and their case against the main parties is strong. The Government will start to get
    things sorted, and in that sorting there will be a natural pull to divergence from the EU.

    The problem with Communism is that it hasn’t been implemented properly yet…
    Britain being an independent nation was implemented and operated successfully for around 300 years. The position that this
    cannot now be the case has no basis in logic. You believe it for emotional reasons.
    Corporal punishment was just the thing for a while, too.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,411

    Something's got to give. Leavers can't keep telling themselves that Boris was amazing and that's that. I suspect that the Boris Leavers will soon become like the GOP Trumpites - figures of ridicule and scorn whom the public activity seek to punish - while Tory Brexit realists are given more of a hearing. A spanking victory by Sir Keir would probably speed up that process, and the Tories should welcome it if they had any sense. Boris and Brexit are killing them.

    Yes. I believe this is the correct diagnosis and prediction.
    You’d hope that Tory realists would not be that far from Starmer politically. Certainly the leaked budget, if true, could easily have been a labour government’s first budget.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,513
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    The media keep telling everyone that multiple things that really have nothing to do with Brexit have been caused by it. Obviously, as new Labour established long ago, if you say things often enough people will eventually believe it.

    Nice try but to simply say nothing that has happened since 2016 has anything to do with the fact we left the European Union rather begs the question why we bothered to leave in the first place as it is or was so marginal and insubstantial and irrelevant to the warp and weft of events.

    You can't have it both ways - to simply say leaving the EU has made no difference to anything (I suppose there are a few positives such as sovereignty but some will argue you can't eat or spend sovereignty especially when times are hard) can only make people wonder if it was worth all the effort, anger and night after night of the same argument over the past six and a bit years.
    I sometimes wonder if it was worth it myself. I have consistently said that the effect of Brexit has been vastly overstated by both its proponents and opponents alike.

    We have the same problems that made membership of the SM so catastrophic for us in every field but finance. We don't invest enough, we consume too much, we don't train enough, our productivity is consequentially poor and we just don't seem to care that we are constantly borrowing tens of billions from the rest of the world to have a standard of living we have not earned. Brexit could have helped us in holding our political class to account for these failures with no ready excuse to hand but no, we would rather argue about irrelevancies than our real underlying problems.
    It is the latter issues you enumerate, rather than the single market itself, you keep conflating the two.

    In some ways, the single market hid and covered up for underlying issues.
    No it didn't it exposed them in a ruinous trade deficit that we ignored. And, for the nth time there was nothing wrong with the SM. It was, in theory, a good idea. What was wrong was the economic policies we implemented in this country whilst a part of it. A SM is both an opportunity and a discipline. We refused to be disciplined and paid the price.

    But pretending that rejoining it would make things any better without addressing the reasons it did not work for us is bordering on Einstein's definition of madness.
    I agree it is an “opportunity and discipline”.

    But rejoining it is a pre-requisite for any sort of prosperity, notwithstanding any discipline you talk about.

    All the discipline in the world is not going to make up for the opportunities that have been sacrificed. Lower trade levels have not closed the trade deficit, and lower trade levels reduce consumer satisfaction across the board regardless of any deficit. It also reduces productivity.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,411
    Scott_xP said:

    Britain being an independent nation was implemented and operated successfully for around 300 years. The position that this cannot now be the case has no basis in logic.

    It really does though.

    300 years ago the successful industries were rape and pillage, and we were really, really good at those.

    More recently, successful industries relied on frictionless trading with our closest neighbours.

    And we were good at that

    And we pissed it all away to appease the xenophobes and swivel eyed loons.
    300 years ago was 1722. Trade was mightliy important. There are countless splendid churches scattered across the sheep lands of the U.K. that were built on the back of the wool trade.
    I think you have a very odd idea of what history was really like, most of the time.
  • glwglw Posts: 8,776
    RH1992 said:

    Not much point in these polls.

    We’re not going back into the EU, so they really are a waste of pixels.

    Exactly this. It's time for the sensibles to get a deal that brings us closer to ease the friction while accepting that we won't be rejoining.

    EFTA perhaps, but more likely some tinkering around mutual recognition of standards in certain areas such as professional qualifications and services, like Starmer proposed.
    Even EFTA would be a tough to sell step, as only a third of people even want to be in the Single Market. That's why these polls are pretty much worthless, when people are asked in detail what they want it sure as hell isn't the EU that exists today.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,101

    300 years ago was 1722. Trade was mightliy important.

    Triangle Trade, built on rape and pillage...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,101
    glw said:

    Even EFTA would be a tough to sell step, as only a third of people even want to be in the Single Market. That's why these polls are pretty much worthless, when people are asked in detail what they want it sure as hell isn't the EU that exists today.

    The day Ukraine joins will be a miserable one for the Brexit diehards
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,411

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    The media keep telling everyone that multiple things that really have nothing to do with Brexit have been caused by it. Obviously, as new Labour established long ago, if you say things often enough people will eventually believe it.

    Nice try but to simply say nothing that has happened since 2016 has anything to do with the fact we left the European Union rather begs the question why we bothered to leave in the first place as it is or was so marginal and insubstantial and irrelevant to the warp and weft of events.

    You can't have it both ways - to simply say leaving the EU has made no difference to anything (I suppose there are a few positives such as sovereignty but some will argue you can't eat or spend sovereignty especially when times are hard) can only make people wonder if it was worth all the effort, anger and night after night of the same argument over the past six and a bit years.
    I sometimes wonder if it was worth it myself. I have consistently said that the effect of Brexit has been vastly overstated by both its proponents and opponents alike.

    We have the same problems that made membership of the SM so catastrophic for us in every field but finance. We don't invest enough, we consume too much, we don't train enough, our productivity is consequentially poor and we just don't seem to care that we are constantly borrowing tens of billions from the rest of the world to have a standard of living we have not earned. Brexit could have helped us in holding our political class to account for these failures with no ready excuse to hand but no, we would rather argue about irrelevancies than our real underlying problems.
    It is the latter issues you enumerate, rather than the single market itself, you keep conflating the two.

    In some ways, the single market hid and covered up for underlying issues.
    No it didn't it exposed them in a ruinous trade deficit that we ignored. And, for the nth time there was nothing wrong with the SM. It was, in theory, a good idea. What was wrong was the economic policies we implemented in this country whilst a part of it. A SM is both an opportunity and a discipline. We refused to be disciplined and paid the price.

    But pretending that rejoining it would make things any better without addressing the reasons it did not work for us is bordering on Einstein's definition of madness.
    I agree it is an “opportunity and discipline”.

    But rejoining it is a pre-requisite for any sort of prosperity, notwithstanding any discipline you talk about.

    All the discipline in the world is not going to make up for the opportunities that have been sacrificed. Lower trade levels have not closed the trade deficit, and lower trade levels reduce consumer satisfaction across the board regardless of any deficit. It also reduces productivity.
    I think moving to a better trading position is entirely possible without rejoin. Once again I am reminded that the way some talk about Brexit, we no longer trade with the EU. This is, of course, nonsense. We have free trade. It is being hindered by paperwork right now. Sort that and the issues reduce mightily. As @RochdalePioneers keeps saying, our standards are still the EU standards. We just need to stay aligned.
  • Just listening to Ken Clarke on Sky and the conservative party have lost a very wise politician amongst others as they fell for the ERG and mishandled brexit

    Makes one nostalgic for the old conservative party

    As did you, for some years at least.
    Good to see the odd fit of sanity from you before you go back to quizzing Keir’s curry.
    I have long maintained we should have a closer relationship with the EU and reject the ERG

    I support Macron's outer perimeter countries proposals and genuinely hope this can evolve to the benefit of all the countries in Europe and go a long way to mitigating the worst effects of the current Brexit

    One thing is certain, both leave and remain disciples are not only tedious, but actually counter productive as each thinks it is right when in practice compromise is the only long term solution
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,219
    Scott_xP said:

    300 years ago was 1722. Trade was mightliy important.

    Triangle Trade, built on rape and pillage...
    Still a colony or two left.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,303

    In my opinion, those who rule Britain, the civil service, quangocracy, and various (though not all) influential politicians, want to keep Britain from properly 'Brexiting' for a variety of reasons. By properly Brexiting, I mean establishing effective control of our borders, arrangements to conduct trade with the EU in a satisfactory manner, diverging from EU rules when it is in the national interest to do so (eg big changes to VAT), and laying aside long term strategical EU projects that don't make sense in the long term post-Brexit, which would include HS2 (likely to survive again despite there being no fucking reason for it), and electric interconnectors to Germany.

    The dual reasons for the stalling are pretty clear - to discredit Brexit as a concept, coralling a worn down populace into a process that ends in rejoining, and to ensure that in the interim, we have not diverged in any way that would impede the rejoining process.

    This campaign isn't working terribly badly at the moment, but it does have limited road. As well as discrediting Brexit, it also makes the Government of the day look stupid and incompetent, which with all the other stupidity and incompetence at the moment, is sort of hidden, but at some point, the demand to sort things out becomes deafening, and this will happen sooner than people can be softened up to think the answer is 'rejoin', not 'get a fucking grip'. We also see Reform UK on the rise again, and with good reason - Brexit hasn't been 'done', and their case against the main parties is strong. The Government will start to get things sorted, and in that sorting there will be a natural pull to divergence from the EU.

    This is 99% delusional nonsense, but I do think that it is generally pretty hard to implement a policy if the vast weight of opinion among the kind of well-informed people you need to do most of that implementation think it's a stupid and self-destructive policy. A policy that wins with the public by a slim margin but loses massively among graduates, for instance, is always going to struggle to get implemented well. That's not a conspiracy, it's just how it is, and it's one of the reasons why I've always struggled to see Brexit sticking (the others being the age profile of its support, and its fundamental shitness).
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,411
    Scott_xP said:

    300 years ago was 1722. Trade was mightliy important.

    Triangle Trade, built on rape and pillage...
    Yes the triangle was extremely lucrative, but much of our national trade in former years was based on other things. Humans have always traded. It’s speculated that even Neolithic humans traded goods.
    I despair for you, so bitter and twisted by Brexit.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,513

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    The media keep telling everyone that multiple things that really have nothing to do with Brexit have been caused by it. Obviously, as new Labour established long ago, if you say things often enough people will eventually believe it.

    Nice try but to simply say nothing that has happened since 2016 has anything to do with the fact we left the European Union rather begs the question why we bothered to leave in the first place as it is or was so marginal and insubstantial and irrelevant to the warp and weft of events.

    You can't have it both ways - to simply say leaving the EU has made no difference to anything (I suppose there are a few positives such as sovereignty but some will argue you can't eat or spend sovereignty especially when times are hard) can only make people wonder if it was worth all the effort, anger and night after night of the same argument over the past six and a bit years.
    I sometimes wonder if it was worth it myself. I have consistently said that the effect of Brexit has been vastly overstated by both its proponents and opponents alike.

    We have the same problems that made membership of the SM so catastrophic for us in every field but finance. We don't invest enough, we consume too much, we don't train enough, our productivity is consequentially poor and we just don't seem to care that we are constantly borrowing tens of billions from the rest of the world to have a standard of living we have not earned. Brexit could have helped us in holding our political class to account for these failures with no ready excuse to hand but no, we would rather argue about irrelevancies than our real underlying problems.
    It is the latter issues you enumerate, rather than the single market itself, you keep conflating the two.

    In some ways, the single market hid and covered up for underlying issues.
    No it didn't it exposed them in a ruinous trade deficit that we ignored. And, for the nth time there was nothing wrong with the SM. It was, in theory, a good idea. What was wrong was the economic policies we implemented in this country whilst a part of it. A SM is both an opportunity and a discipline. We refused to be disciplined and paid the price.

    But pretending that rejoining it would make things any better without addressing the reasons it did not work for us is bordering on Einstein's definition of madness.
    I agree it is an “opportunity and discipline”.

    But rejoining it is a pre-requisite for any sort of prosperity, notwithstanding any discipline you talk about.

    All the discipline in the world is not going to make up for the opportunities that have been sacrificed. Lower trade levels have not closed the trade deficit, and lower trade levels reduce consumer satisfaction across the board regardless of any deficit. It also reduces productivity.
    I think moving to a better trading position is entirely possible without rejoin. Once again I am reminded that the way some talk about Brexit, we no longer trade with the EU. This is, of course, nonsense. We have free trade. It is being hindered by paperwork right now. Sort that and the issues reduce mightily. As @RochdalePioneers keeps saying, our standards are still the EU standards. We just need to stay aligned.
    By dismissing the issue as “paperwork” you are falling into the trap of so many Brexiters who think that a bit of good old fashioned common sense can reduce trade barriers to nought.

    Dynamic alignment raises all sorts of sovreignty issues of course.
  • glwglw Posts: 8,776
    Scott_xP said:

    glw said:

    Even EFTA would be a tough to sell step, as only a third of people even want to be in the Single Market. That's why these polls are pretty much worthless, when people are asked in detail what they want it sure as hell isn't the EU that exists today.

    The day Ukraine joins will be a miserable one for the Brexit diehards
    What has that got to do with what I just wrote?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,411
    Scott_xP said:

    glw said:

    Even EFTA would be a tough to sell step, as only a third of people even want to be in the Single Market. That's why these polls are pretty much worthless, when people are asked in detail what they want it sure as hell isn't the EU that exists today.

    The day Ukraine joins will be a miserable one for the Brexit diehards
    Why? It’s up to them.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,303
    carnforth said:

    I never expected Britain to rejoin but now I think it’s 50/50 that it will, although of course not for many years.

    Brexit was an epochal act of economic and political self-sabotage. Personally I suspect the economic damage is under-estimated, and the government is “lucky” that first Covid and then Ukraine has deranged the economic statistics.

    I hope to return to the UK one day.
    I still have a glimmer of optimism that the country will rediscover its gift for sober, pragmatic governance and unshowy prosperity.

    A sober and pragmatic Government could manage Brexit well, and be successful outside the EU. The Brexit shitshow depends on Governments being of poor quality. That's the problem for your side. As soon as things start to be managed soberly and pragmatically, rejoin is gone. As they say in Scotland, it's on a shoogly peg.
    Brexit can only be managed well by rendering it Brexit in name only. The other alternative is full on market fundamentalism - but as Truss discovered, even the markets don't like that. What we have now, underfunded European social democracy without the single market, isn't a growth model.
    Would you count simple dynamic alignment (Theresa May brexit) BINO, or only full EEA or Switzerland-style almost-EEA?
    The latter. May's and Johnson's versions are pretty similar, both qualify as "hard Brexit" in the old terminology.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,411

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    The media keep telling everyone that multiple things that really have nothing to do with Brexit have been caused by it. Obviously, as new Labour established long ago, if you say things often enough people will eventually believe it.

    Nice try but to simply say nothing that has happened since 2016 has anything to do with the fact we left the European Union rather begs the question why we bothered to leave in the first place as it is or was so marginal and insubstantial and irrelevant to the warp and weft of events.

    You can't have it both ways - to simply say leaving the EU has made no difference to anything (I suppose there are a few positives such as sovereignty but some will argue you can't eat or spend sovereignty especially when times are hard) can only make people wonder if it was worth all the effort, anger and night after night of the same argument over the past six and a bit years.
    I sometimes wonder if it was worth it myself. I have consistently said that the effect of Brexit has been vastly overstated by both its proponents and opponents alike.

    We have the same problems that made membership of the SM so catastrophic for us in every field but finance. We don't invest enough, we consume too much, we don't train enough, our productivity is consequentially poor and we just don't seem to care that we are constantly borrowing tens of billions from the rest of the world to have a standard of living we have not earned. Brexit could have helped us in holding our political class to account for these failures with no ready excuse to hand but no, we would rather argue about irrelevancies than our real underlying problems.
    It is the latter issues you enumerate, rather than the single market itself, you keep conflating the two.

    In some ways, the single market hid and covered up for underlying issues.
    No it didn't it exposed them in a ruinous trade deficit that we ignored. And, for the nth time there was nothing wrong with the SM. It was, in theory, a good idea. What was wrong was the economic policies we implemented in this country whilst a part of it. A SM is both an opportunity and a discipline. We refused to be disciplined and paid the price.

    But pretending that rejoining it would make things any better without addressing the reasons it did not work for us is bordering on Einstein's definition of madness.
    I agree it is an “opportunity and discipline”.

    But rejoining it is a pre-requisite for any sort of prosperity, notwithstanding any discipline you talk about.

    All the discipline in the world is not going to make up for the opportunities that have been sacrificed. Lower trade levels have not closed the trade deficit, and lower trade levels reduce consumer satisfaction across the board regardless of any deficit. It also reduces productivity.
    I think moving to a better trading position is entirely possible without rejoin. Once again I am reminded that the way some talk about Brexit, we no longer trade with the EU. This is, of course, nonsense. We have free trade. It is being hindered by paperwork right now. Sort that and the issues reduce mightily. As @RochdalePioneers keeps saying, our standards are still the EU standards. We just need to stay aligned.
    By dismissing the issue as “paperwork” you are falling into the trap of so many Brexiters who think that a bit of good old fashioned common sense can reduce trade barriers to nought.

    Dynamic alignment raises all sorts of sovreignty issues of course.
    So what is this issue if it isn’t paperwork? That’s what I have heard the complaints about.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,222

    Slightly annoying to see another Brexit thread.

    The leaked budget, and @Casino_Royale’s response, is much more interesting.

    I will be seriously ticked off if the weight of additional taxation once again falls almost exclusively on those who have to work for a living. It really is absolutely essential that those with the highest disposable incomes in our society, who are usually the retired with pensions and mortgages paid off, contribute substantially to the rebalancing that is required.

    I will also be searching for policies designed to promote growth, specifically additional tax reliefs for investment and training and closer links between our excellent Universities and business.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,100

    In my opinion, those who rule Britain, the civil service, quangocracy, and various (though not all) influential politicians, want to keep Britain from properly 'Brexiting' for a variety of reasons. By properly Brexiting, I mean establishing effective control of our borders, arrangements to conduct trade with the EU in a satisfactory manner, diverging from EU rules when it is in the national interest to do so (eg big changes to VAT), and laying aside long term strategical EU projects that don't make sense in the long term post-Brexit, which would include HS2 (likely to survive again despite there being no fucking reason for it), and electric interconnectors to Germany.

    The dual reasons for the stalling are pretty clear - to discredit Brexit as a concept, coralling a worn down populace into a process that ends in rejoining, and to ensure that in the interim, we have not diverged in any way that would impede the rejoining process.

    This campaign isn't working terribly badly at the moment, but it does have limited road. As well as discrediting Brexit, it also makes the Government of the day look stupid and incompetent, which with all the other stupidity and incompetence at the moment, is sort of hidden, but at some point, the demand to sort things out becomes deafening, and this will happen sooner than people can be softened up to think the answer is 'rejoin', not 'get a fucking grip'. We also see Reform UK on the rise again, and with good reason - Brexit hasn't been 'done', and their case against the main parties is strong. The Government will start to get things sorted, and in that sorting there will be a natural pull to divergence from the EU.

    'Properly Brexiting' in your words requires political leadership. I see little evidence of capable political leaders being unable to do what they want because of officials getting in their way. The point is they've never had a plan. A vision. What exactly do they want to diverge on? Since they've been unable to successfully answer that question we have the scorched earth approach of removing ALL EU regulation without parliamentary scrutiny.

    I will say it's also quite depressing that people think the answer to all our economic problems is to rejoin the EU. I suspect the economy would grow faster but per capita is less clear as are the distributional effects. And there may be some small economic benefits from divergence. The bigger problem is no-one seems to have any answers for how to turn us from a low wage, low investment, low productivity economy into a high wage, high investment, high productivity economy. The obsession about monetary policy when inflation is largely due to China's covid policy and Putin turning off the gas is a case in point.
  • Scott_xP said:

    glw said:

    Even EFTA would be a tough to sell step, as only a third of people even want to be in the Single Market. That's why these polls are pretty much worthless, when people are asked in detail what they want it sure as hell isn't the EU that exists today.

    The day Ukraine joins will be a miserable one for the Brexit diehards
    As I understand it Ukraine are part of Macron's outer perimeter group and if it works out not only Ukraine but also UK, Norway, Iceland and others will be part of the new treaty
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,229
    edited November 16

    Scott_xP said:

    glw said:

    Even EFTA would be a tough to sell step, as only a third of people even want to be in the Single Market. That's why these polls are pretty much worthless, when people are asked in detail what they want it sure as hell isn't the EU that exists today.

    The day Ukraine joins will be a miserable one for the Brexit diehards
    Why? It’s up to them.
    Whilst I switched from leave to remain, there is section of opinion that cannot seem to accept the idea that joining the EU might be good for some but not others. Absent the few crusty souls who actually want to see the EU fall entirely, I'd think most die hard Brexiters think EU membership would probably be good for Ukraine.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,219

    Scott_xP said:

    300 years ago was 1722. Trade was mightliy important.

    Triangle Trade, built on rape and pillage...
    Yes the triangle was extremely lucrative, but much of our national trade in former years was based on other things. Humans have always traded. It’s speculated that even Neolithic humans traded goods.
    I despair for you, so bitter and twisted by Brexit.
    Not just “speculated”:

    https://www.english-heritage.org.uk/learn/story-of-england/prehistory/commerce/
  • glwglw Posts: 8,776

    I will say it's also quite depressing that people think the answer to all our economic problems is to rejoin the EU. I suspect the economy would grow faster but per capita is less clear as are the distributional effects. And there may be some small economic benefits from divergence. The bigger problem is no-one seems to have any answers for how to turn us from a low wage, low investment, low productivity economy into a high wage, high investment, high productivity economy. The obsession about monetary policy when inflation is largely due to China's covid policy and Putin turning off the gas is a case in point.

    Even today you have members of the MPC saying that the constrained labour market is inflationary, due to Brexit. Well the solution isn't cheap labour as that ain't on the cards anymore, it's investment in skills, education, automation, and the like. This should have been blindingly obvious but you still get loads of business leaders banging the immigration drum. Maybe we need to start with importing some capable management first?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,219
    ‘Scotland is still civilised. England is not civilised. England is shite now.’ Who’d argue with Miriam Margolyes.

    https://twitter.com/phantompower14/status/1592964964825714689?s=46&t=NTfBgwsKr_qD_0DQ4PY-mw
  • glwglw Posts: 8,776
    kle4 said:

    Whilst I switched from leave to remain, there is section of opinion that cannot seem to accept the idea that joining the EU might be good for some but not others. Absent the few crusty souls who actually want to see the EU fall entirely, I'd think most die hard Brexiters think EU membership would probably be good for Ukraine.

    I don't give a stuff what organisations Ukraine joins providing they are able to do so, or not do so, freely without their fascist neighbour wanting a say in the matter.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,267
    DavidL said:

    Slightly annoying to see another Brexit thread.

    The leaked budget, and @Casino_Royale’s response, is much more interesting.

    I will be seriously ticked off if the weight of additional taxation once again falls almost exclusively on those who have to work for a living. It really is absolutely essential that those with the highest disposable incomes in our society, who are usually the retired with pensions and mortgages paid off, contribute substantially to the rebalancing that is required.

    I will also be searching for policies designed to promote growth, specifically additional tax reliefs for investment and training and closer links between our excellent Universities and business.
    You won't find much growth promotion in a 1% rise in the education budget.
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