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The US pollster who helped make Cameron on the Midterms – politicalbetting.com
The US pollster who helped make Cameron on the Midterms – politicalbetting.com
Luntz first came to notice in the UK, and on PB, with his focus groups on the 2005 Tory leadership contest that was featured on Newsnight. My view at the time was that it was Luntz who helped ensure that Cameron was able to beat David Davis who was the favourite.
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"Two ways," the engineer said. "Gradually, then suddenly."
https://twitter.com/evacide/status/1592265221816877056
But it might go bust.
AKA a 95% failure rate.
(data from @statesunited)
https://time.com/6231852/election-deniers-2022-midterms-results/
And here is 967 Tweets by Scott to say why.
Catastrophic defeat in N America & loss of the 13 colonies
Napoleon’s gigantic continental blockade
The collapse of the empire
Many of its buildings being literally destroyed in WW2
Now here we are
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63623502
Of course, people are often really good at realising what they got wrong in their analysis afterwards.
Is he right independents broke 50/50?
But the City isn't the Stock Market and the FTSE has had its problems for a very long time.
Recently when comparing house price changes I posted this:
At the end of 1999 the FTSE 100 was 6930 and the average house price in England was £75k
Today [26 October] the FTSE 100 is 6996 and according to the ONS the average house price reached £292k in July.
This isn't Brexit, this is the UK's economy being greatly unbalanced which has continued for decades now.
I think you’re right. But I think perhaps that’s only because we were naive back then about how manipulative a ‘focus group’ is.
Luntz isn’t an idiot, but neither is he quite the guru he is sometimes made out to be.
And his “Words that Work” was a deeply cynical and rather toxic book.
That'd be like saying Miliband lost because he tripped on the QT stage.
After all, given Scott, Leon and Carlotta conspire to regurgitate its entire output on here, why bother visiting Twitter at all?
An analysis of the reported facts and applicable law: Second edition
https://www.brookings.edu/research/second-edition-fulton-county-georgias-trump-investigation/
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/14/dominic-raab-was-warned-about-his-behaviour-by-top-foreign-office-official?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Bloody lawyers, not only election count staff who go slow.
Even if he did not literally mean Raffensperger should 'find' additional votes, a candidate vocally badgering the top election officials for an hour or more in an effort to sway them to take actions he wanted? The list of potential defenses he may use if charge are pretty eye opening too - including his 'outreach' to officials being first amendment protected.
I feel like he uses this one a lot as well, damn intent.
that he lacked the intent to commit wrongdoing because he genuinely believed he had won the election
Just Clegg may well have formed a government with Labour not the Tories as he did with Cameron
PM has already said that Truss deal was rushed and one-sided, and didnt benefit farmers… could he not ask the new Australian PM to reopen it a bit and tweak the TRQs etc? As it happens they are about to meet at the G20. again seems unlikely, but not unthinkable…
And if Sunak doesn’t do it, then surely is an open goal for the Opposition, seeking a hearing in rural areas, saying they would be willing to walk away from what the PM himself suggested was a “rushed one-sided deal” & offering a renegotiation with Labour colleagues in Canberra?
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1592274002134769664
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/elon-musks-twitter-deal-is-different-than-most-lbos-heres-how/2022/11/12/7c671b64-62b9-11ed-a131-e900e4a6336b_story.html
These were peaceful protestors simply seeking the right to basic justice and autonomy. Unacceptable and barbaric.
https://twitter.com/QasimRashid/status/1592173879493120001
Whether it prospers or not is, however, up to us. That's the point of Brexit
That is the fact of Brexit
We probably have to be more adventurous. The EU market is gone for ever. That's a blow, but it can be a boon, in the end
How long after Election Day will ballots still count if postmarked by Election Day?
California has extended the time that vote-by-mail ballots can arrive to county elections offices for this election. Vote-by-mail ballots postmarked on or before Election Day can arrive up to 17 days after Election Day and be counted.
https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/voter-registration/vote-mail/usps-frequently-asked-questions-faqs
Much more comfortable if votes had to arrive on election day, sorry latecomers, or if things were at least standardised, but that's a federation of states for you.
That's a blow, but it can be a boon, in the end...
Starmer is the antithesis of Johnson, but I’m not sure how he relates to Sunak. I can imagine them actually getting along.
Ultimately it probably matters little as the election is surely lost for the Tories, it’s just how badly lost it is now.
"the brat is screaming, we haven't had sex in eight months, I don't fancy your sagging tits anymore, and we haven't been to a party for ever, this is a total failure and will never pay off"
Welcome to: Having a Baby
We have chosen a different path to what many wanted, It helps no one to have constant carping by remainers who seize with glee on the slightest negative story they can find. It’s almost as if they want Brexit to fail…
"I have made it clear to the US government that we won’t cooperate with any external investigation and won’t allow any interference in Israel’s internal affairs,” Israeli Defense Minister Gantz said of the reported FBI probe of Shireen Abu Akleh's death.
https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1592272998161330176
The US should make it clear they won’t tolerate the obstruction of an investigation into the killing of one of their citizens.
It's a shitshow, according to the people who wanted it.
The Brexiteer DEFRA minister says we signed a really shitty deal with Australia, not because of Covid, not because of Ukraine, but because Liz Truss wanted an Instagram picture at the G7
This was legitimately one of the only things Brexit made possible, and it's an epic disaster.
High fives all round...
Give it up.
Perhaps like all projects Brexit needed SMART actions so we could all see if it was working.
However, there is very little evidence that it has been anything other than a negative.
We won’t rejoin (and who would want to go through all that again anyway?) so the best approach is to find a plan that all but the most extreme nutters on either side will wear.
Regulatory alignment and a benign visa regime for young people in big cities would appear to be the frame.
Trump filing in suit against Twitter compares former president to Galileo
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/14/new-trump-suit-against-twitter-compares-former-president-to-galileo-00066802
There almost certainly won't be anything that either side can point to as constituting definitive failure or success of Brexit - ever. You had a baby, A life changing event. That's it. Your life is different forever, thereafter, and there are ways it will fuck you up, but also ways it will make you happy. And in 20 years your life will be so different you won't be able to imagine what things might be like if you'd taken that fundamentally alternative path
What we can say is that the really bad shit - literally, shit, as in babycack in your eye - will probably come in the first few years