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Trump slips even further in the WH2024 nomination betting – politicalbetting.com
Trump slips even further in the WH2024 nomination betting – politicalbetting.com
The big news in American politics this week looks set to be the announcement promised by Donald Trump on Tuesday about his intentions. The widespread belief is that he will announce that he’s running for the 2024 nomination – something that many senior figures in his party are very much opposed to.
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No, for me the single worst, egregious, cruel, barbaric aspect of British rule in the Subcontinent was the foisting of boring, dull, tedious Cricket on the native populace, rather than a PROPER sport like football.
Imagine if football had been introduced say 120 years ago, India would be the Brazil of Asia, and Pakistan, perhaps, the Argentina.
I said last night he's not a party man - he has no specific loyalty to the Republicans so could easily choose to go it alone. Third party candidatures happen in US elections - they just aren't very successful - is Trump capable of being a Perot (19% and no EVs) or a Wallace (smaller but more concentrated vote)?
What percentage of the 2016/2020 GOP vote was for Trump as much as for the Republicans? How many 2019 Conservative voters voted for Boris Johnson rather than for the Conservative Party?
The Republicans will know a schism hands the keys to the White House for the Democrats but not necessarily in perpetuity - after the 1912 schism, the GOP won again in 1920 and held the Presidency for 12 years.
IF Trump splits the GOP in 2024 and polls say 20%, that will be his zenith of his appeal and he will fade into obscurity. The bulk of the party would never forgive him.
Vikings v Buffalos - game of the year.
Vikings win % swings:
2%
70%
1%
78%!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tC-ZaUDUiwc
DeSantis is the best of the bunch. Think about that for a second.
Not sure that he would want that as his legacy.
Considering The Donald created such a Conservative Supreme Court, they done him and Conservative America no favours announcing last June not next February?
Whereas the Micks had been bashing each other with sticks for eons, just for the fun of the thing!
Thus Irish Nationalists will willing AND able to proscribe English "garrison games" (with some albeit varying degree of success) such as soccer, rugby and esp. cricket.
But Indians did NOT have hurling or similar to fall back on, in the native tradition.
A theory, anyway.
As big a football city as many European or South American.
Hobbs lead up to 36,186.
AZ6 - Rep lead 1,617.
He could well be a 2020s Perot and enable the Democrats to win the next 2 Presidential elections with under 50% of the vote as Clinton did in 1992 and 1996
Is Trump invested in the Republican Party? It's all about him.
I reckon bringing down the Party of Lincoln to prove Donald right would be just the legacy he's looking for
1892 - James Weaver, Populist = 8.5% of popular vote = 22 Electoral Votes (from Great Plains & West)
1912 - Theodore Roosevelt, Progressive (aka Bull Moose) = 27.4% (2nd place) = 88 EV (ditto)
1912 - Eugene Debs, Socialist = 6.0%
1924 - Robert LaFollette, Progressive = 16.6% = 13 EV (Wisconsin)
1948 - Strom Thurmond, States Rights (aka Dixiecrat) = 2.4% = 39 EV (Deep South)
1948 - Henry Wallace (Progressive) = 2.4% (over half from CA & NY)
1968 - George Wallace, American Independent = 13.5% = 46 EV (Deep South)
1980 - John Anderson, Independent = 6.6%
1992 - Ross Perot, Independent = 18.9%
1996 - Ross Perot, Reform = 8.6%
2000 - Ralph Nader, Green = 2.2%
2000 - Pat Buchanan, Reform = 0.4%
2016 - Gary Johnson, Libertarian = 3.3%
2016 - Jill Stein, Green = 1.1%
2020 - Jo Jorgensen, Libertarian = 1.2%
SSI - my guess is that a Trump 3-Party candidacy in 2024 would be on order of Perot 1992 or even Teddy 1912.
As with these two examples, would crack the GOP like a coconut. Or whatever kind of nut you prefer cracking.
This is a garbage result and completely convinced me that once again pollsters had failed to find enough Dem voting Latinos as they have failed to do over the last decade.
Play 80 minutes of playing time, with subs for genuine injury only. Stop the clock to set scrums and line outs with a "shot clock" limit leading to a penalty for not getting on with it. You'd see the size of players fall. Along with the drug use. And head injuries.
And the cost of bloated squads. Which might make it a little more financially viable.
If the Trumpet Party competed for the Senate and Congress, you could see the Dems getting 2/3rd of the Senate, as well. At which point they would have the power to do pretty much anything they felt like.
I'm not convinced he cares at all about owt other than his bank balance or ego.
In fact. A 2/3 rd Dem Senate because they failed to nominate HIM he would see as just desserts.
Clearly some are fighting that, and others don't want him to lead them, but will they succeed?
If he thinks a run will cost him his own money, he won't do it.
If he thinks a run can see money embezzled redirected into his family bank accounts, he'll go.
His run last time started as a grift. His hotels and golf clubs etc charging top dollar liable to the expense accounts of the campaign.
They keep losing. 7 out of 8 on PV.
There needs to come a point when they make peace with the electorate.
The only reason the GOP lose the PV but win the EC is because the GOP are more ruthless at targeting the electorate where it matters, in states across the country rather than driving up by extra millions their margin of victory in California like the Democrats do.
I want the Democrats to win more, but they need to make their own peace with the electorate. Realise that the Midwest which they could and should win, does not have the same priorities as California.
Biden was good at that, Clinton was bad at that. That's why Biden won, and Clinton lost.
Trump didn't lose versus Hillary, and nor did he steal the election. He won it fair and square. Unpleasant as that may be, the Democrats need to make peace with that and Biden did and didn't repeat Clinton's mistakes. The Democrats need to be more, not less, like Biden.
But to get there, he has to lose an election as a third party candidate. For most of his candidates to lose as well. To be a loser on a massive, massive scale. Then to slog along for 4-8 years as the Voice In The Wilderness?
Not sure I see that as being his thing.
Also, he would be 82 or 86 when his chance might come round again...
Plus, by burning his boats with the Republicans so clearly, makes absolutely sure that there is no legal protection for him in the Federal System of government - Democrats and Republicans vs a slack handful of Trumpets?
Maricopa county are expected to release results of approx 90,000 votes around 1am UK time .
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3731647-ranking-the-democrats-who-could-run-for-president-in-2024/
I still think, if it’s not Biden, then it’s likely to be Buttigieg.
Gallego: We fought as a team in Arizona and we won. Senator Sinema was nowhere to be found, at all. We did not see her at one public event for anybody… she did nothing. Because she only cares about herself..
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1591941285757452288
He may threaten all sorts of stuff to get his way, including running as an independent, but he won’t actually do anything that has loser inevitably written on the last page.
By younger, of course, I'm talking in relative US politics terms. They could be 65.
Nobody can be a publisher, because that requires vetting of all comments to check for their legality, etc., because you are making the publisher responsible for the veracity of everything on their site/app.
So, people need to be platforms.
Except there's a fundamental difference between YouTube and BT.
You don't pick up your phone and thing, you know what, I'll pick it up and have an interesting conversation with whoever the phone company's algorithm picks. You choose who you want to talk to.
YouTube/Twitter/TikTok/Facebook/etc., their whole business model is showing you content you might want to watch/read/engage with.
Are you saying that - because lots of people came to them because of their algorithm - that they can no longer use their algorithms to decide what to show you?
Twitter is not a platform. It's a website and an app. No one is forced to use Twitter. It has no special power. Fuck me, it only does a couple of billion in revenue. My little insurance company will probably do as much revenue as Twitter does now in a couple of years time.
Regulation should exist to protect consumers where they have no choice. That is unequivocally not the case with Twitter.
But even if it was, you can't apply different rules because someone has 50m users not 50k users. If Twitter must be responsible for anonymous posters, then so must PB.
She should have thrown herself fully behind Kelly. She should have been at every rally. She should have been on the trail campaigning for him. (Kelly is not, after, all a Bernie Sanders. He's about as moderate as they come.)
But she did not. And I think that means a primary challenge, and a damaged Sisnema, and a Republican win in AZ in 2024.
There was a big hint from the White House at the weekend that Joe Biden will be running again in 2024. Which he should. A proven winner.
As for Ron de Santis, let's see how he fares under the scrutiny of primaries and the attack dogs of Donald Trump. The GOP are in a very bad place right now, making Biden's task easier.
https://www.ft.com/content/133589fd-ba37-4963-9113-e1c47c28d4d7
Maggie would be turning in her grave that a Conservative administration could have let this happen. An entire generation will be paying for this.
Paradoxically I think Labour need to be careful here. They have to show that they can tackle the problem.
Those were good bets I placed last night. I'm now looking at +£140 profit overall if it holds.
It's not as though we might be running a surplus next year, whatever we do.
There are no other choices.
Biden increased the D margin over R for the presidency nationally by 2.36%
Pennsylvania he increased the margin by 1.88%
Michigan by 3.01%
Wisconsin by 1.4%
Other states he flipped
Georgia +5.37%
Arizona +3.81%
While he outperformed the D national House vote by 1.4%, he didn't outperform the D House vote in PA at all, in Wisconsin he underperformed the House vote by 2.3%. Michigan he outperformed by a similar % to nationally.
Maybe there's all kinds of reasons for these figures, and you could argue that he at least reversed the trend towards R presidential candidates in the previous 2 elections in the 3 mid-west states he flipped, but the raw figures don't seem to support the idea that Biden was especially good at winning in the Midwest.
Think about the optics for the Tories. Not only is this sacrifice to the markets required because of the Truss Experiment - their fault - but the markets are now demanding that we give up our Playstations and pay them a fee for doing so.
It will be very difficult for the Tories to promote free market economics after this. And without the market as their big USP what is left?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/27/megalopolis-how-coastal-west-africa-will-shape-the-coming-century
Yesterday in Melbourne
https://mobile.twitter.com/vydamo_/status/1591969834283466752
I believe as an ex-FTX employee I can offer some insight into how funds were succesfully comingled between customer, CHO and Alameda wallets without auditors noticing. The entire hack was possible due to the elx trapdoor SBF put in ~ 9 months ago which we can see in public test...
John F. Kelly, who was White House chief of staff, said that as president, Donald J. Trump wanted investigations into perceived enemies like James Comey, the former F.B.I. director.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/13/us/politics/trump-irs-investigations.html
And ultimately the globe needs to re-examine how refugee and asylum works in the modern world. It does not see right to many people that refugees/asylum seekers in Calais, an entirely safe country, do not claim asylum there. Or in Germany. Or Italy, or any of the other safe countries that they have crossed to get there. Now they have their reasons - language, family etc, but it diminishes the sympathy of people in the U.K.
The test will come in the spring.
Unless #Russia manages to dig up T-62 Obr. 1964s, this T-62 Obr. 1967 will for always be the first entry in the Russian list of losses.
https://mobile.twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1592068009941946369
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/g-gbni
The A330 is in the US, flew to Charleston yesterday.
F1: great race at a very good circuit. My bets failed but one at least was clear misfortune (Ricciardo being a plank). Intriguing to think how Verstappen, Hamilton, and Sainz would have done without bad luck.
The 330 is presumably on military duty in Charleston, picking up something important to deliver to Ukraine.
Just found this in the NYT
“Both men, then, are quite familiar with what a billion-dollar business looks like. The sport where they see the biggest upside these days, though, might be a surprise.
“When we first started looking at cricket, we were by no means experts,” Scheiner said. “But the more we studied it, the more we realized it felt like the N.F.L. did 20 years ago.””
Cricket is as close to perfect as any sport in the world. The only improvement I could make would be another handful of nations playing it.
And another thing - look at that photo of cricketers. Smiling cheekily. Not glowering like footballers trying to suggest they're hard in a way which makes you want to wish both teams could lose.
Plus or minus 4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anUOedg6M7s
It'll be moving people, probably for something nuclear related. NNPTC is at JB Charleston.
The sums are incredible. Billions. In 5 years IPL will probably overtake NFL as the richest sports league in the world. It might one day threaten EPL as the most-watched
This money will, I am sure, attract other nations to play the game. It’s irresistible. Add in south Asian diasporas worldwide…
Cricket’s future is rosy. It just won’t be Test cricket. Which is a shame, but hey Ho
https://nnptc.org/about.php
The National Network of STD Clinical Prevention Training Centers (NNPTC) is funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to assist clinicians in the United States with …
or possibly
https://www.navsea.navy.mil/Home/NNPTC
This is an official U.S. Navy Web site Naval Nuclear Power Training Command (NNPTC) 101 NNPTC Cir Goose Creek, SC, 29445 All information on...
Do they expect to get plaudits for that?
Verstappen refused to give up 6th place to Perez when both titles are wrapped up
Make it make sense?????
https://twitter.com/MattyWTF1/status/1591885623363014656
Dear max verstappen fans.. If this incident with Perez is finally opening your eyes to what kind of person Max is. We’d like to tell you we’ve known this entire time. You were just too blind to see it. - sincerely, fans of literally every other driver
https://twitter.com/Ichimaru_7/status/1591884595246813184
You can't make people feel comfortable that trending from a baseline of zero to a high number of 40,000+ is ok just because in Europe overall its at 200,000+
I think that criteria should be changed.
The subject has become toxic - with the belief that asylum seeker is a nobler thing that economic migrant.