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40m have ready voted in the MidTerms – politicalbetting.com

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  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    kle4 said:

    AlistairM said:

    Could be a good caption contest.

    What an amazing, arresting pic from @StefanRousseau

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonPC/status/1589702334120341506

    Strictly 2023 ups its game.....
    Strong 2010 leader's debate leg-game there.


    Score was 111
    Whilst you are here BJO, where do you stand on Ed Miliband committing UK to climate reparations?
    I wouldnt call it that but as we chopped all our forests down to drive economic growth it seems reasonahle to compensate others so they dont chop all theirs down for the same reason.

    SKS wont unleash Eds plan too unpopular with the right wing voters he wants to attract
    Er, we chopped ours down well over 1,000 years ago before fossil fuels were even on the scene.
    Indeed the UK has been growing its forests, not shrinking them, for a long time.

    There's more than twice as much forestry in the UK today than there was a century ago and its nearly back to the levels surveyed by William the Conquerer.
    When will I be free to hunt the king's deer though?
    You can now as long as you just run the buggers down on the road.*

    *Downside is the risk to the car.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    kle4 said:

    AlistairM said:

    Could be a good caption contest.

    What an amazing, arresting pic from @StefanRousseau

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonPC/status/1589702334120341506

    Strictly 2023 ups its game.....
    Strong 2010 leader's debate leg-game there.


    Score was 111
    Whilst you are here BJO, where do you stand on Ed Miliband committing UK to climate reparations?
    I wouldnt call it that but as we chopped all our forests down to drive economic growth it seems reasonahle to compensate others so they dont chop all theirs down for the same reason.

    SKS wont unleash Eds plan too unpopular with the right wing voters he wants to attract
    Er, we chopped ours down well over 1,000 years ago before fossil fuels were even on the scene.
    Indeed the UK has been growing its forests, not shrinking them, for a long time.

    There's more than twice as much forestry in the UK today than there was a century ago and its nearly back to the levels surveyed by William the Conquerer.
    When will I be free to hunt the king's deer though?
    You can now as long as you just run the buggers down on the road.*

    *Downside is the risk to the car.
    Not very sporting, is it?

    I mean, I don't want a completely fair fight and give up weapons (though I feel like a contest where I forgo the benefits of human ingenuity is hardly 'fair'), but the animal should at least have a chance.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    A twenty something friend of Fox Jr, a talented designer in a thriving industry, has just given notice and taken a job in Vancouver. Canada takes a different attitude to immigration. See here:

    https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1587533261831639040?t=WedvodUnINwtmKNWe8oLqA&s=19

    Canada is a fascinating place.
    A much closer UK/Canada alliance would be quite an interesting economic and military actor.
    Our family has done its bit - our eldest son married a Canadian in 2015 and they live in Vancouver
    A great city.

    (Not completely unlike my hometown, Auckland).

    I am serious about UK / Canada collaboration.

    Imagine the worst happens: Trump wins again in 2024 and pulls support from Ukraine. He disengages from Europe. Democracy corrodes and the US sinks into a soft authoritarianism not unlike Orban’s Hungary.

    Both the UK and Canada would face quite profound geopolitical questions over their relationship to the U.S. and their commitment to democracy.

    Preparation should start now.
    Though Alberta and the prairie states of Canada are not too far from Trumpland USA in view, while the US coasts are far closer to the rest of Canada and most of the UK than the Trump voting flyover land
    Our Alberta and Saskatchewan based relations aren’t in any way Trumpish.
    Maybe still not a majority but 33% of Albertans say they would have voted for Trump in 2020, compared to 19% of Canadians overall who would have voted for Trump

    https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/338canada-trumpism-is-alive-and-well-on-canadas-right/
    Which makes Alberta as Trumpist as Bernie Sanders homeland of Vermont in the USA.

    Albertans certainly are conservative, for Canadians especially, but they're not Trump supporters.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,995
    Putting asid

    ydoethur said:

    15.6 GW of electricity from wind right now.

    Must be close to a record, surely?

    The record set earlier this year was 19.9 GW, but someone said a free days ago the data on gridwatch (which is getting the official source at BM Reports) isn't accurate. Would be interesting to know more about that if they want to share.
    That was me, but it turns out to be a bit more complicated than one being right and one wrong. Gridwatch currently shows 15.4gw. Grid energy numbers shows 19.4gw. The two have the same nuclear, gas and other generation numbers but somewhat different imports and exports.

    Last week we hit an all time spot record of just over 20gw. At the time the grid energy numbers site showed the exact same reading which was later confirmed by National grid. Gridwatch showed about 16.5gw. But the NG site itself matches the Gridwatch numbers and gives a record from last week of 16gw.

    So I’m not sure. I can only speculate as both sources seem to have independently validated numbers.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mermaids over-reach becoming painfully obvious as their case is eviscerated by the Charity Commission counsel

    Absolutely key points from counsel for the Charity Commission. The law absolutely does not require all charities to have one particular view of issues that are highly contentious within society, as Mermaids seems to believe. Mermaids' position is fundamentally anti-democratic.

    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1589634810942607360

    This is what happens when you only ever listen to people who agree with you…”No Debate” meets “the real world”.

    Seems like a very strange case. There must be lots of charities have views other charities think are deeply wrong. The argument about primary purpose and charitable benefit seems kind of weak.
    Even Stonewall had the wit not to get drawn into this. Arrogance borne of hubris. And people too frightened to speak out. Not any more.
    You might want to ask which minority is being eviscerated in this for little gain. Trans people have the most to fear from this witch hunt.
    Help me understand, are male-to-female trans witches or wizards?

    Always find an alterantive wording if you can: and Wiccan is helpfully ungendered.
    Wiccan is a twat religion invented in 1956 by a civil servant....just saying
    From an atheist point of view, ALL religions were invented at some point.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Anyone else really excited by tomorrow's big event?


    No? Just me then.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    AlistairM said:

    Could be a good caption contest.

    What an amazing, arresting pic from @StefanRousseau

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonPC/status/1589702334120341506

    Strictly 2023 ups its game.....
    Strong 2010 leader's debate leg-game there.


    Score was 111
    Whilst you are here BJO, where do you stand on Ed Miliband committing UK to climate reparations?
    I wouldnt call it that but as we chopped all our forests down to drive economic growth it seems reasonahle to compensate others so they dont chop all theirs down for the same reason.

    SKS wont unleash Eds plan too unpopular with the right wing voters he wants to attract
    Er, we chopped ours down well over 1,000 years ago before fossil fuels were even on the scene.
    Indeed the UK has been growing its forests, not shrinking them, for a long time.

    There's more than twice as much forestry in the UK today than there was a century ago and its nearly back to the levels surveyed by William the Conquerer.
    When will I be free to hunt the king's deer though?
    You can now as long as you just run the buggers down on the road.*

    *Downside is the risk to the car.
    Not very sporting, is it?

    I mean, I don't want a completely fair fight and give up weapons (though I feel like a contest where I forgo the benefits of human ingenuity is hardly 'fair'), but the animal should at least have a chance.
    Depends how good your driving is.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,161
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    A twenty something friend of Fox Jr, a talented designer in a thriving industry, has just given notice and taken a job in Vancouver. Canada takes a different attitude to immigration. See here:

    https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1587533261831639040?t=WedvodUnINwtmKNWe8oLqA&s=19

    Yes but Canada has over 30 times the UK landmass and just over half the UK population, so it can afford to!
    Although most of Canada's landmass is pretty inhospitable. Not as bad as Australia, for sure, but still.

    (Hence the fact that the cost of buying a home in Vancouver is probably at least as bad as London.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    I think our trade minister, Badenoch, recently used one of the aircraft carriers to host an event in New York harbour, so we're clearly already using the Royal Navy for trade promotion purposes, whether we have a dedicated ship for the task or not.

    Would it be better to have a dedicated ship for the purpose, rather than to use one that cost ten times as much, which perhaps ought to be doing other things?

    I suppose not building it at least saves us the embarrassment of having to sell it when we run out of money.

    Clearly that’s the answer - repurpose the second aircraft carrier for hosting parties.

    Grass over the deck and put in fountains and nicely maintained gravel paths, a giant glass marquee, little tiki bars, put on shows with the performers being raised up from “below stage” on the plane lifts. Big guests can arrive by their helicopters. Get Damian Hirst to do a fancy paint job one year, another British artist the next etc. maybe a grass tennis court where people can pay to play the royal family.

    Yes, I’ve solved it.

    1. Why not acquire a secondhand billionaire's yacht and re-purpose it.
    2. Why doesn't Charles pay for it himself if he wants one (I suspect he doesn't). He could afford to.
    In the new series of the Crown Charles makes clear to the Queen he is opposed to a replacement for Britannia if there is any truth in that
    The Crown has become the truth.
    I’ve got a theory about this “Crown started factual but just making it up now” criticism. Maybe it’s harder to spot and correct wonky history the longer ago it was?
    Undoubtedly true.

    I believe there is also a very real problem with the nature of human memory.

    Much of what is contentious in The Crown is not evidence-supported truths or falsehoods but individuals' recollection of events. I think it is the case that we each 'bookmark' events and experiences in our memory with markers that allow us to recall the event. When recalling the event we we retrieve the marker and flesh it out to make it feel like we are recalling the actual event. Often the fleshing out will be influenced by experiences unrelated to the event in question.

    That is why several people at the same event will often have markedly different views of that event, each genuinely believing that theirs is a true representation of what happened.
    If you have ever read Hugh Trevor-Roper's the last days of Hitler there is a very good discussion of how people can have very accurate recollections of events that can still appear to be wildly different.
    You don’t like the book? But it’s often held up as example of a great history book. Written by the intelligence service to get to the truth of what actually happened? I have read it, and also one of the history books film Downfall was based on
    Why would you think that based on what I said, given I described it as 'very good?'
    Apologies, I read it you described the discussion as very good, not the book. “there is a very good discussion of how people can have very accurate recollections of events that can still appear to be wildly different.”

    So a good history book interviews more than one person, and reports all the findings?

    Or the very good discussion realises recollections only appear to be very different, in the telling, so the good historian treads a path where recollections do actually build a picture. Like an episode of The Avengers I watched recently where they didn’t know what the monster was as some witnesses thought it was spider, others a snake, or a shark, and worked out from that what it was.
    I think you're getting somewhat confused. What I said was the discussion about how recollections initially seem to differ before you work out how differences of perspective can cause this is 'very good.' I didn't actually make any particular comment on the book as a whole either way so I'm baffled as to why you're wandering down this rabbit hole (should it be a crater, in your case? :wink: )

    As it happens it is very good, although I'm not quite as convinced as some others it's an all-time classic. It's a decent-quality intelligence report with a few rewrites that happens to be elevated to distinction because of its subject matter.

    Incidentally it's worth noting Trevor-Roper actually wrote very few books and only about three of them were noteworthy, including this one. He was much more comfortable with the polemical essay.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    People I now hate:

    Bastards with snappy/stiff letterboxes. If you have a snappy outer flap, a thick rug in between, and a stiff inner flap, then I hate I hate your Mum as well.

    Arseholes with below knee height letterboxes. Lots of fun when carrying a big bag of mail over the shoulder. Why have it so fucking low? I despise you people

    People who demarcate their doorstep. When I could walk one step from letterbox to letterbox - sometimes in a semi that shares the same bit of concrete for a doorstep - some fuckers put a barrier that makes me walk an extra twenty metres between those letterboxes. Despicable twats.

    Lazy shits that won't put a house number somewhere visible. Those dicks don't deserve mail.

    Wankers who take five minutes to come to the door when it's pissing down with rain.

    Don't be one of them

    What do you do to people who commit all those sins?
  • kle4 said:

    mwadams said:

    The Crown has been shit since Claire Foy left the scene. Aberfan was the only other decent episode.

    Next.

    My daughter and I met Claire Foy in a popup Sylvanian Families store in London pre-Covid. She seemed nice.
    Good actress too, made that movie where she played opposite robot Neil Armstrong watchable.
    I think to be fair the problem with that film is that Neil Armstrong pretty much was a robot. Just look at his reactions to near death experiences during the Apollo mission training. Must be hard for any actor to breath any life into that and still be true to the character.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,406
    kle4 said:

    Anyone else really excited by tomorrow's big event?


    No? Just me then.

    And me.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited November 2022

    Roger said:

    I've just seen Herschel Walker on Ch4 standing for election in Georgia. I did some fashion shots with him in New Orleans when he was acting as a prop with a couple of fashion models. He played for a team nicknamed the Dogs I think and there was an even more famous quarter back whose name escapes me. The funny and disappointing thing is that they're now describing him as a right wing anti abortionist God fearing zealot.

    Queue up here Geogians for some Herschel Walker stories!

    Did this anti abortionist ever pay for an abortion to get himself off the hook, do you know?

    That would be awkward.
    Even more so if he did it not once but twice.
    Once could be regarded a misfortune, twice is carelessness
    . .
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mermaids over-reach becoming painfully obvious as their case is eviscerated by the Charity Commission counsel

    Absolutely key points from counsel for the Charity Commission. The law absolutely does not require all charities to have one particular view of issues that are highly contentious within society, as Mermaids seems to believe. Mermaids' position is fundamentally anti-democratic.

    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1589634810942607360

    This is what happens when you only ever listen to people who agree with you…”No Debate” meets “the real world”.

    Seems like a very strange case. There must be lots of charities have views other charities think are deeply wrong. The argument about primary purpose and charitable benefit seems kind of weak.
    Even Stonewall had the wit not to get drawn into this. Arrogance borne of hubris. And people too frightened to speak out. Not any more.
    You might want to ask which minority is being eviscerated in this for little gain. Trans people have the most to fear from this witch hunt.
    Help me understand, are male-to-female trans witches or wizards?

    Always find an alterantive wording if you can: and Wiccan is helpfully ungendered.
    Wiccan is a twat religion invented in 1956 by a civil servant....just saying


    From an atheist point of view, ALL religions were invented at some point.
    Indeed. That’s why I think Scientology is unfairly maligned… it’s just a more modern story compared to the others.

  • People I now hate:

    Bastards with snappy/stiff letterboxes. If you have a snappy outer flap, a thick rug in between, and a stiff inner flap, then I hate I hate your Mum as well.

    Arseholes with below knee height letterboxes. Lots of fun when carrying a big bag of mail over the shoulder. Why have it so fucking low? I despise you people

    People who demarcate their doorstep. When I could walk one step from letterbox to letterbox - sometimes in a semi that shares the same bit of concrete for a doorstep - some fuckers put a barrier that makes me walk an extra twenty metres between those letterboxes. Despicable twats.

    Lazy shits that won't put a house number somewhere visible. Those dicks don't deserve mail.

    Wankers who take five minutes to come to the door when it's pissing down with rain.

    Don't be one of them

    This takes me back about 40 years to when I had a couple of Christmas post rounds as a relief postie. All those things were the bane of my life.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AlistairM said:

    That's a lot of money for a single plane. However, the An-225 was a real symbol of Ukraine's identity. It is clearly being done for the message that it sends.

    Ukraine has started construction of the second An-225 Mriya model aircraft. It will replace the legendary board, which was destroyed by the Russian invaders in Gostomel at the beginning of the invasion. According to the newspaper Bild, the new "Mriya" is already 30% ready.

    "The work is being done in a secret place. The second An-225 will be supplied with both new parts and parts of the damaged aircraft," said Yevhen Gavrilov, General Director of Antonov State Enterprise.

    The estimated cost of construction of the second "Mria" is 500 million euros.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1589699184734900224

    Half a billion Euros for a "model aircraft"!

    They're having a laugh.
    They have been looking at Games Workshop's pricing policy.
    Just received my copy of the newly published book on the origins of Games Worksop. Of particular interest to me as I worked for Citadel (the miniatures arm of GW) back in the early days before they moved everything to Nottingham and am still friends with most of the people mentioned in the book. It is an impressive success story to go from one small shop in London and a workshop in Newark to a multi-billion pound company.
    It's an amazing business. And unsung engineering heroes, too. I was an avid customer in the early days, and now, 40 years later, I'm sinking the GDP of a small country into minis since my nearly-9yo daughter discovered 40k for herself.
  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    A twenty something friend of Fox Jr, a talented designer in a thriving industry, has just given notice and taken a job in Vancouver. Canada takes a different attitude to immigration. See here:

    https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1587533261831639040?t=WedvodUnINwtmKNWe8oLqA&s=19

    Yes but Canada has over 30 times the UK landmass and just over half the UK population, so it can afford to!
    Although most of Canada's landmass is pretty inhospitable. Not as bad as Australia, for sure, but still.

    (Hence the fact that the cost of buying a home in Vancouver is probably at least as bad as London.)
    Depends how you measure it. Probably not on a square feet basis.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    kle4 said:

    mwadams said:

    The Crown has been shit since Claire Foy left the scene. Aberfan was the only other decent episode.

    Next.

    My daughter and I met Claire Foy in a popup Sylvanian Families store in London pre-Covid. She seemed nice.
    Good actress too, made that movie where she played opposite robot Neil Armstrong watchable.
    I think to be fair the problem with that film is that Neil Armstrong pretty much was a robot. Just look at his reactions to near death experiences during the Apollo mission training. Must be hard for any actor to breath any life into that and still be true to the character.
    That's probably true, and it didn't help seeing it not long after Bladerunner 2049, so it was like Gosling was still playing an android.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,406

    People I now hate:

    Bastards with snappy/stiff letterboxes. If you have a snappy outer flap, a thick rug in between, and a stiff inner flap, then I hate I hate your Mum as well.

    Arseholes with below knee height letterboxes. Lots of fun when carrying a big bag of mail over the shoulder. Why have it so fucking low? I despise you people

    People who demarcate their doorstep. When I could walk one step from letterbox to letterbox - sometimes in a semi that shares the same bit of concrete for a doorstep - some fuckers put a barrier that makes me walk an extra twenty metres between those letterboxes. Despicable twats.

    Lazy shits that won't put a house number somewhere visible. Those dicks don't deserve mail.

    Wankers who take five minutes to come to the door when it's pissing down with rain.

    Don't be one of them

    My new flat fails the first test. As the brother of a postie who has just quit after more than 10 years, it really pains me.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,063
    edited November 2022
    FT

    Chancellor lines up stealth raid on Inheritance tax

    Good for him

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1589725227424047104?t=LeDqrQpkubI2GS3a6sveeQ&s=19
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159

    People I now hate:

    Bastards with snappy/stiff letterboxes. If you have a snappy outer flap, a thick rug in between, and a stiff inner flap, then I hate I hate your Mum as well.

    Arseholes with below knee height letterboxes. Lots of fun when carrying a big bag of mail over the shoulder. Why have it so fucking low? I despise you people

    People who demarcate their doorstep. When I could walk one step from letterbox to letterbox - sometimes in a semi that shares the same bit of concrete for a doorstep - some fuckers put a barrier that makes me walk an extra twenty metres between those letterboxes. Despicable twats.

    Lazy shits that won't put a house number somewhere visible. Those dicks don't deserve mail.

    Wankers who take five minutes to come to the door when it's pissing down with rain.

    Don't be one of them

    Chanelling Bukowski?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,829
    Rishi about to end the threat of blackouts with the US gas deal. Good for RR shareholders too as it looks like the US is going to assent to new SMRs to replace the old PWRs that are being decommissioned.

    Feel like this is the kind of deal that would be better done with the US, UK and EU involved but self interest would take over and the French would just push their shitty EPR and everyone would get nowhere.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    People I now hate:

    Bastards with snappy/stiff letterboxes. If you have a snappy outer flap, a thick rug in between, and a stiff inner flap, then I hate I hate your Mum as well.

    Arseholes with below knee height letterboxes. Lots of fun when carrying a big bag of mail over the shoulder. Why have it so fucking low? I despise you people

    People who demarcate their doorstep. When I could walk one step from letterbox to letterbox - sometimes in a semi that shares the same bit of concrete for a doorstep - some fuckers put a barrier that makes me walk an extra twenty metres between those letterboxes. Despicable twats.

    Lazy shits that won't put a house number somewhere visible. Those dicks don't deserve mail.

    Wankers who take five minutes to come to the door when it's pissing down with rain.

    Don't be one of them

    Use a wooden spoon/plastic spatula. Take snappy/stiff letterboxes in their stride. They will also be eaten by those maniacal devil dogs that wait for post in silence. Better they get a mouthful of that than your fingers....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    A twenty something friend of Fox Jr, a talented designer in a thriving industry, has just given notice and taken a job in Vancouver. Canada takes a different attitude to immigration. See here:

    https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1587533261831639040?t=WedvodUnINwtmKNWe8oLqA&s=19

    Canada is a fascinating place.
    A much closer UK/Canada alliance would be quite an interesting economic and military actor.
    Our family has done its bit - our eldest son married a Canadian in 2015 and they live in Vancouver
    A great city.

    (Not completely unlike my hometown, Auckland).

    I am serious about UK / Canada collaboration.

    Imagine the worst happens: Trump wins again in 2024 and pulls support from Ukraine. He disengages from Europe. Democracy corrodes and the US sinks into a soft authoritarianism not unlike Orban’s Hungary.

    Both the UK and Canada would face quite profound geopolitical questions over their relationship to the U.S. and their commitment to democracy.

    Preparation should start now.
    Though Alberta and the prairie states of Canada are not too far from Trumpland USA in view, while the US coasts are far closer to the rest of Canada and most of the UK than the Trump voting flyover land
    Our Alberta and Saskatchewan based relations aren’t in any way Trumpish.
    Maybe still not a majority but 33% of Albertans say they would have voted for Trump in 2020, compared to 19% of Canadians overall who would have voted for Trump

    https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/338canada-trumpism-is-alive-and-well-on-canadas-right/
    Which makes Alberta as Trumpist as Bernie Sanders homeland of Vermont in the USA.

    Albertans certainly are conservative, for Canadians especially, but they're not Trump supporters.
    Slightly higher actually, only 30% in Vermont voted for Trump.

    Higher too than the number in Maryland and Massachussetts and DC who voted for Trump too
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    I was interested to hear what Sunak had to say at COP, but as he was speaking I found my brain tuning out, much in the same way as when Starmer gave his conference speech.

    What is this problem with both of them that makes it hard to come away with the main take outs? Is it too many words? Not enough of the right words. Not enough of something to say?

    Boris never really addressed policy, look at his last conference speech, on the cusp of financial crisis he said nothing, the only thing I recall was about his great mate Jon Bon Govi - he sacked as his last act as PM.

    Truss was much better was she not? You may loath her actual policy, but she communicated them clearly.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mermaids over-reach becoming painfully obvious as their case is eviscerated by the Charity Commission counsel

    Absolutely key points from counsel for the Charity Commission. The law absolutely does not require all charities to have one particular view of issues that are highly contentious within society, as Mermaids seems to believe. Mermaids' position is fundamentally anti-democratic.

    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1589634810942607360

    This is what happens when you only ever listen to people who agree with you…”No Debate” meets “the real world”.

    Seems like a very strange case. There must be lots of charities have views other charities think are deeply wrong. The argument about primary purpose and charitable benefit seems kind of weak.
    Even Stonewall had the wit not to get drawn into this. Arrogance borne of hubris. And people too frightened to speak out. Not any more.
    You might want to ask which minority is being eviscerated in this for little gain. Trans people have the most to fear from this witch hunt.
    Help me understand, are male-to-female trans witches or wizards?

    Always find an alterantive wording if you can: and Wiccan is helpfully ungendered.
    Wiccan is a twat religion invented in 1956 by a civil servant....just saying


    From an atheist point of view, ALL religions were invented at some point.
    Indeed. That’s why I think Scientology is unfairly maligned… it’s just a more modern story compared to the others.

    The wealth acquired by the Catholic Church in the Middle Ages was staggering. Scientologists want a bit of that action. Can’t blame them really.
  • HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Foxy said:

    AlistairM said:

    Could be a good caption contest.

    What an amazing, arresting pic from @StefanRousseau

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonPC/status/1589702334120341506

    Strictly 2023 ups its game.....
    Strong 2010 leader's debate leg-game there.


    Score was 111
    Whilst you are here BJO, where do you stand on Ed Miliband committing UK to climate reparations?
    I wouldnt call it that but as we chopped all our forests down to drive economic growth it seems reasonahle to compensate others so they dont chop all theirs down for the same reason.

    SKS wont unleash Eds plan too unpopular with the right wing voters he wants to attract
    Ref UK GAIN Doncaster North, we speak to defeated Labour former leader and MP Ed Miliband....
    'Bugger'
    Maybe. Maybe not...

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+1)
    CON: 27% (-3)
    LDEM: 10% (-2)
    REF: 5% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    via @RedfieldWilton, 06 Nov
    You sure that poll isn’t merely correction of previous outlier?
    Given Deltapoll has gone the other way it suggests things are bouncing around still looking for a new equilibrium
    The 2 polls have the Tories on 27 & 29 and Labour on 47 & 48. Sunak is in deep trouble if the polls start settling around those sort of figures.
    Still better than the 21% the Tories were on with Redfield and the 25% they were on with Deltapoll in Truss' last polls with the firm.

    However RefUK up to 5% suggests that while Sunak has gained a few voters back from Labour and the LDs, he has also leaked some Boris and Truss supporters on his right to RefUK
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
    One of the questions going forward is going to be how much of that RefUK vote can be won back by solving the boat situation (or at least mostly solving it) and how much is lost because some voters on the right just don't like Sunak.

    Another way of looking at it- peak Truss was about C32 L42. That would be game on (sort of) again, especially with a slug of swingback. But it's beginning to look like that's a bit out of reach for the Conservatives, which is fair enough. The situation is objectively worse now than then. Truss has gone but her awful legacy remains.
  • mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AlistairM said:

    That's a lot of money for a single plane. However, the An-225 was a real symbol of Ukraine's identity. It is clearly being done for the message that it sends.

    Ukraine has started construction of the second An-225 Mriya model aircraft. It will replace the legendary board, which was destroyed by the Russian invaders in Gostomel at the beginning of the invasion. According to the newspaper Bild, the new "Mriya" is already 30% ready.

    "The work is being done in a secret place. The second An-225 will be supplied with both new parts and parts of the damaged aircraft," said Yevhen Gavrilov, General Director of Antonov State Enterprise.

    The estimated cost of construction of the second "Mria" is 500 million euros.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1589699184734900224

    Half a billion Euros for a "model aircraft"!

    They're having a laugh.
    They have been looking at Games Workshop's pricing policy.
    Just received my copy of the newly published book on the origins of Games Worksop. Of particular interest to me as I worked for Citadel (the miniatures arm of GW) back in the early days before they moved everything to Nottingham and am still friends with most of the people mentioned in the book. It is an impressive success story to go from one small shop in London and a workshop in Newark to a multi-billion pound company.
    It's an amazing business. And unsung engineering heroes, too. I was an avid customer in the early days, and now, 40 years later, I'm sinking the GDP of a small country into minis since my nearly-9yo daughter discovered 40k for herself.
    For all that I have great admiration for GW, there is a vast world of alternatives out there if you find 40K stuff too expensive. Depending on where you live, come to one of our shows at Newark next year and you can get some insight into depth of the hobby.

    Also remember the legend is that you can't die until you paint your last mini. I have about 20,000 of them as insurance :smile:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969

    FT

    Chancellor lines up stealth raid on Inheritance tax

    Good for him

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1589725227424047104?t=LeDqrQpkubI2GS3a6sveeQ&s=19

    At a time when the Tories are still on under 30% and at least half of that 30% will be wealthy property owners and their heirs in the South, a risky strategy, certainly if not reversed before the next general election and with Reform already up to 5%.

    Though a temporary freeze in the threshold as with most taxes provided the threshold raised before the next election not too damaging
  • HYUFD said:

    FT

    Chancellor lines up stealth raid on Inheritance tax

    Good for him

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1589725227424047104?t=LeDqrQpkubI2GS3a6sveeQ&s=19

    At a time when the Tories are still on under 30% and at least half of that 30% will be wealthy property owners and their heirs in the South, a risky strategy, certainly if not reversed before the next general election and with Reform already up to 5%.

    Though a temporary freeze in the threshold as with most taxes provided the threshold raised before the next election not too damaging
    It is not going to be reversed and the 4,000 plus members who have already joined ReformUK provides hope for one nation conservatives that the right and its ERG are heading hopefully the same way as the Corbynites
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969

    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mermaids over-reach becoming painfully obvious as their case is eviscerated by the Charity Commission counsel

    Absolutely key points from counsel for the Charity Commission. The law absolutely does not require all charities to have one particular view of issues that are highly contentious within society, as Mermaids seems to believe. Mermaids' position is fundamentally anti-democratic.

    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1589634810942607360

    This is what happens when you only ever listen to people who agree with you…”No Debate” meets “the real world”.

    Seems like a very strange case. There must be lots of charities have views other charities think are deeply wrong. The argument about primary purpose and charitable benefit seems kind of weak.
    Even Stonewall had the wit not to get drawn into this. Arrogance borne of hubris. And people too frightened to speak out. Not any more.
    You might want to ask which minority is being eviscerated in this for little gain. Trans people have the most to fear from this witch hunt.
    Help me understand, are male-to-female trans witches or wizards?

    Always find an alterantive wording if you can: and Wiccan is helpfully ungendered.
    Wiccan is a twat religion invented in 1956 by a civil servant....just saying
    From an atheist point of view, ALL religions were invented at some point.
    Well over 80% of us globally are still religious and believe in a God (or Gods)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    HYUFD said:

    FT

    Chancellor lines up stealth raid on Inheritance tax

    Good for him

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1589725227424047104?t=LeDqrQpkubI2GS3a6sveeQ&s=19

    At a time when the Tories are still on under 30% and at least half of that 30% will be wealthy property owners and their heirs in the South, a risky strategy, certainly if not reversed before the next general election and with Reform already up to 5%.

    Though a temporary freeze in the threshold as with most taxes provided the threshold raised before the next election not too damaging
    Right after the party torpedoed its remaining reputation for financial competence do they have any non risky options?

    Most measures, be they tax rises or spending cuts, will be pretty unpopular, since if there were easy and popular ways to rein in spending or raise tens of billions they'd have done them by now. But they need to do something to regain an aura of competence, and hope, probably in vain, to be rewarded.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,316

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AlistairM said:

    That's a lot of money for a single plane. However, the An-225 was a real symbol of Ukraine's identity. It is clearly being done for the message that it sends.

    Ukraine has started construction of the second An-225 Mriya model aircraft. It will replace the legendary board, which was destroyed by the Russian invaders in Gostomel at the beginning of the invasion. According to the newspaper Bild, the new "Mriya" is already 30% ready.

    "The work is being done in a secret place. The second An-225 will be supplied with both new parts and parts of the damaged aircraft," said Yevhen Gavrilov, General Director of Antonov State Enterprise.

    The estimated cost of construction of the second "Mria" is 500 million euros.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1589699184734900224

    Half a billion Euros for a "model aircraft"!

    They're having a laugh.
    They have been looking at Games Workshop's pricing policy.
    Just received my copy of the newly published book on the origins of Games Worksop. Of particular interest to me as I worked for Citadel (the miniatures arm of GW) back in the early days before they moved everything to Nottingham and am still friends with most of the people mentioned in the book. It is an impressive success story to go from one small shop in London and a workshop in Newark to a multi-billion pound company.
    It's an amazing business. And unsung engineering heroes, too. I was an avid customer in the early days, and now, 40 years later, I'm sinking the GDP of a small country into minis since my nearly-9yo daughter discovered 40k for herself.
    For all that I have great admiration for GW, there is a vast world of alternatives out there if you find 40K stuff too expensive. Depending on where you live, come to one of our shows at Newark next year and you can get some insight into depth of the hobby.

    Also remember the legend is that you can't die until you paint your last mini. I have about 20,000 of them as insurance :smile:
    That is ... impressive.

    I painted a few minis back in my teenage years, back when everything was still cast in metal. Never made the shift to plastic.

    My collection of “White Dwarf” back issues is sadly lost to time & entropy however.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    edited November 2022

    HYUFD said:

    FT

    Chancellor lines up stealth raid on Inheritance tax

    Good for him

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1589725227424047104?t=LeDqrQpkubI2GS3a6sveeQ&s=19

    At a time when the Tories are still on under 30% and at least half of that 30% will be wealthy property owners and their heirs in the South, a risky strategy, certainly if not reversed before the next general election and with Reform already up to 5%.

    Though a temporary freeze in the threshold as with most taxes provided the threshold raised before the next election not too damaging
    It is not going to be reversed and the 4,000 plus members who have already joined ReformUK provides hope for one nation conservatives that the right and its ERG are heading hopefully the same way as the Corbynites
    They aren't, basically Sunak is Gordon Brown 2010 on current polls not Cameron 2010 or Blair 1997 or even Major 1992 and if he and Hunt lose the next general election they will get the blame. Expect the Conservatives to then swing heavily to the populist right in opposition under Badenoch, Braverman, Mogg etc as Labour swung to the populist left under Ed Miliband and Corbyn after Brown's defeat.

  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    A twenty something friend of Fox Jr, a talented designer in a thriving industry, has just given notice and taken a job in Vancouver. Canada takes a different attitude to immigration. See here:

    https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1587533261831639040?t=WedvodUnINwtmKNWe8oLqA&s=19

    Canada is a fascinating place.
    A much closer UK/Canada alliance would be quite an interesting economic and military actor.
    Our family has done its bit - our eldest son married a Canadian in 2015 and they live in Vancouver
    A great city.

    (Not completely unlike my hometown, Auckland).

    I am serious about UK / Canada collaboration.

    Imagine the worst happens: Trump wins again in 2024 and pulls support from Ukraine. He disengages from Europe. Democracy corrodes and the US sinks into a soft authoritarianism not unlike Orban’s Hungary.

    Both the UK and Canada would face quite profound geopolitical questions over their relationship to the U.S. and their commitment to democracy.

    Preparation should start now.
    Though Alberta and the prairie states of Canada are not too far from Trumpland USA in view, while the US coasts are far closer to the rest of Canada and most of the UK than the Trump voting flyover land
    Our Alberta and Saskatchewan based relations aren’t in any way Trumpish.
    Maybe still not a majority but 33% of Albertans say they would have voted for Trump in 2020, compared to 19% of Canadians overall who would have voted for Trump

    https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/338canada-trumpism-is-alive-and-well-on-canadas-right/
    Which makes Alberta as Trumpist as Bernie Sanders homeland of Vermont in the USA.

    Albertans certainly are conservative, for Canadians especially, but they're not Trump supporters.
    Slightly higher actually, only 30% in Vermont voted for Trump.

    Higher too than the number in Maryland and Massachussetts and DC who voted for Trump too
    Snce that result was on a forced choice question with don't knows etc eliminated (Biden got 67%), in Vermont Trump got 31.7% of the two party preferred share of votes cast between Trump and Biden. So very, very similar between the two.

    Your risible clam was that "Alberta and the prairie states of Canada are not too far from Trumpland USA in view, while the US coasts are far closer to the rest of Canada". Its nonsense. Based on that poll you shared, Alberta are not too far from the US coasts, which are far closer to Alberta than they are to the rest of Canada.

    Even Canada's most "conservative" states in Alberta etc are still about as "liberal" as the US's most liberal states like Vermont.
  • Phil said:

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AlistairM said:

    That's a lot of money for a single plane. However, the An-225 was a real symbol of Ukraine's identity. It is clearly being done for the message that it sends.

    Ukraine has started construction of the second An-225 Mriya model aircraft. It will replace the legendary board, which was destroyed by the Russian invaders in Gostomel at the beginning of the invasion. According to the newspaper Bild, the new "Mriya" is already 30% ready.

    "The work is being done in a secret place. The second An-225 will be supplied with both new parts and parts of the damaged aircraft," said Yevhen Gavrilov, General Director of Antonov State Enterprise.

    The estimated cost of construction of the second "Mria" is 500 million euros.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1589699184734900224

    Half a billion Euros for a "model aircraft"!

    They're having a laugh.
    They have been looking at Games Workshop's pricing policy.
    Just received my copy of the newly published book on the origins of Games Worksop. Of particular interest to me as I worked for Citadel (the miniatures arm of GW) back in the early days before they moved everything to Nottingham and am still friends with most of the people mentioned in the book. It is an impressive success story to go from one small shop in London and a workshop in Newark to a multi-billion pound company.
    It's an amazing business. And unsung engineering heroes, too. I was an avid customer in the early days, and now, 40 years later, I'm sinking the GDP of a small country into minis since my nearly-9yo daughter discovered 40k for herself.
    For all that I have great admiration for GW, there is a vast world of alternatives out there if you find 40K stuff too expensive. Depending on where you live, come to one of our shows at Newark next year and you can get some insight into depth of the hobby.

    Also remember the legend is that you can't die until you paint your last mini. I have about 20,000 of them as insurance :smile:
    That is ... impressive.

    I painted a few minis back in my teenage years, back when everything was still cast in metal. Never made the shift to plastic.

    My collection of “White Dwarf” back issues is sadly lost to time & entropy however.
    I have never made the move to plastic either. I worry that my cellar might start to resemble a small black hole if I continue to add to the weight of metal already down there. :)
  • kle4 said:

    People I now hate:

    Bastards with snappy/stiff letterboxes. If you have a snappy outer flap, a thick rug in between, and a stiff inner flap, then I hate I hate your Mum as well.

    Arseholes with below knee height letterboxes. Lots of fun when carrying a big bag of mail over the shoulder. Why have it so fucking low? I despise you people

    People who demarcate their doorstep. When I could walk one step from letterbox to letterbox - sometimes in a semi that shares the same bit of concrete for a doorstep - some fuckers put a barrier that makes me walk an extra twenty metres between those letterboxes. Despicable twats.

    Lazy shits that won't put a house number somewhere visible. Those dicks don't deserve mail.

    Wankers who take five minutes to come to the door when it's pissing down with rain.

    Don't be one of them

    What do you do to people who commit all those sins?
    Even then I give them a big smile and do my best to deliver their mail. And if they turn out to be really nice people, despite their despicable obstacles, then I hate them a lot less
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159

    kle4 said:

    mwadams said:

    The Crown has been shit since Claire Foy left the scene. Aberfan was the only other decent episode.

    Next.

    My daughter and I met Claire Foy in a popup Sylvanian Families store in London pre-Covid. She seemed nice.
    Good actress too, made that movie where she played opposite robot Neil Armstrong watchable.
    I think to be fair the problem with that film is that Neil Armstrong pretty much was a robot. Just look at his reactions to near death experiences during the Apollo mission training. Must be hard for any actor to breath any life into that and still be true to the character.
    The byte stuff.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mermaids over-reach becoming painfully obvious as their case is eviscerated by the Charity Commission counsel

    Absolutely key points from counsel for the Charity Commission. The law absolutely does not require all charities to have one particular view of issues that are highly contentious within society, as Mermaids seems to believe. Mermaids' position is fundamentally anti-democratic.

    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1589634810942607360

    This is what happens when you only ever listen to people who agree with you…”No Debate” meets “the real world”.

    Seems like a very strange case. There must be lots of charities have views other charities think are deeply wrong. The argument about primary purpose and charitable benefit seems kind of weak.
    Even Stonewall had the wit not to get drawn into this. Arrogance borne of hubris. And people too frightened to speak out. Not any more.
    You might want to ask which minority is being eviscerated in this for little gain. Trans people have the most to fear from this witch hunt.
    Help me understand, are male-to-female trans witches or wizards?

    Always find an alterantive wording if you can: and Wiccan is helpfully ungendered.
    Wiccan is a twat religion invented in 1956 by a civil servant....just saying


    From an atheist point of view, ALL religions were invented at some point.
    Indeed. That’s why I think Scientology is unfairly maligned… it’s just a more modern story compared to the others.

    I've been reading the Uplift series recently, and it's been quite fun seeing the idea of 'Danikenite' media, religion and politics, on the basis that in its story Mr 'Chariots of the Gods' was, seemingly, dead right as far as the universe shows.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,316
    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AlistairM said:

    That's a lot of money for a single plane. However, the An-225 was a real symbol of Ukraine's identity. It is clearly being done for the message that it sends.

    Ukraine has started construction of the second An-225 Mriya model aircraft. It will replace the legendary board, which was destroyed by the Russian invaders in Gostomel at the beginning of the invasion. According to the newspaper Bild, the new "Mriya" is already 30% ready.

    "The work is being done in a secret place. The second An-225 will be supplied with both new parts and parts of the damaged aircraft," said Yevhen Gavrilov, General Director of Antonov State Enterprise.

    The estimated cost of construction of the second "Mria" is 500 million euros.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1589699184734900224

    Half a billion Euros for a "model aircraft"!

    They're having a laugh.
    They have been looking at Games Workshop's pricing policy.
    Just received my copy of the newly published book on the origins of Games Worksop. Of particular interest to me as I worked for Citadel (the miniatures arm of GW) back in the early days before they moved everything to Nottingham and am still friends with most of the people mentioned in the book. It is an impressive success story to go from one small shop in London and a workshop in Newark to a multi-billion pound company.
    It's an amazing business. And unsung engineering heroes, too. I was an avid customer in the early days, and now, 40 years later, I'm sinking the GDP of a small country into minis since my nearly-9yo daughter discovered 40k for herself.
    I’m told there is a thriving world out there of home 3D printing of, shall we say, GW inspired miniatures. Most of it manages to avoid outright copyright / trademark infringement.

    An opportunity to funnel some of that expense into yet another nerd hobby?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FT

    Chancellor lines up stealth raid on Inheritance tax

    Good for him

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1589725227424047104?t=LeDqrQpkubI2GS3a6sveeQ&s=19

    At a time when the Tories are still on under 30% and at least half of that 30% will be wealthy property owners and their heirs in the South, a risky strategy, certainly if not reversed before the next general election and with Reform already up to 5%.

    Though a temporary freeze in the threshold as with most taxes provided the threshold raised before the next election not too damaging
    It is not going to be reversed and the 4,000 plus members who have already joined ReformUK provides hope for one nation conservatives that the right and its ERG are heading hopefully the same way as the Corbynites
    They aren't, basically Sunak is Gordon Brown 2010 on current polls not Cameron 2010 or Blair 1997 and if he and Sunak lose the next general election they will get the blame. Expect the Conservatives to then swing heavily to the populist right in opposition under Badenoch, Braverman, Mogg etc as Labour swung to the populist left under Ed Miliband and Corbyn after Brown's defeat.

    None of that lot will be in the HOC if Sunak cannot turn things round thankfully
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    OllyT said:

    Foxy said:

    AlistairM said:

    Could be a good caption contest.

    What an amazing, arresting pic from @StefanRousseau

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonPC/status/1589702334120341506

    Strictly 2023 ups its game.....
    Strong 2010 leader's debate leg-game there.


    Score was 111
    Whilst you are here BJO, where do you stand on Ed Miliband committing UK to climate reparations?
    I wouldnt call it that but as we chopped all our forests down to drive economic growth it seems reasonahle to compensate others so they dont chop all theirs down for the same reason.

    SKS wont unleash Eds plan too unpopular with the right wing voters he wants to attract
    Ref UK GAIN Doncaster North, we speak to defeated Labour former leader and MP Ed Miliband....
    'Bugger'
    Maybe. Maybe not...

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+1)
    CON: 27% (-3)
    LDEM: 10% (-2)
    REF: 5% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    via @RedfieldWilton, 06 Nov
    You sure that poll isn’t merely correction of previous outlier?
    Given Deltapoll has gone the other way it suggests things are bouncing around still looking for a new equilibrium
    The 2 polls have the Tories on 27 & 29 and Labour on 47 & 48. Sunak is in deep trouble if the polls start settling around those sort of figures.
    Obviously, yes
    You were implying the polls are bouncing around looking for a new equilibrium.

    I'm saying they aren't and that the polls seem to settling around a 15-20% Labour lead.
  • Phil said:

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AlistairM said:

    That's a lot of money for a single plane. However, the An-225 was a real symbol of Ukraine's identity. It is clearly being done for the message that it sends.

    Ukraine has started construction of the second An-225 Mriya model aircraft. It will replace the legendary board, which was destroyed by the Russian invaders in Gostomel at the beginning of the invasion. According to the newspaper Bild, the new "Mriya" is already 30% ready.

    "The work is being done in a secret place. The second An-225 will be supplied with both new parts and parts of the damaged aircraft," said Yevhen Gavrilov, General Director of Antonov State Enterprise.

    The estimated cost of construction of the second "Mria" is 500 million euros.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1589699184734900224

    Half a billion Euros for a "model aircraft"!

    They're having a laugh.
    They have been looking at Games Workshop's pricing policy.
    Just received my copy of the newly published book on the origins of Games Worksop. Of particular interest to me as I worked for Citadel (the miniatures arm of GW) back in the early days before they moved everything to Nottingham and am still friends with most of the people mentioned in the book. It is an impressive success story to go from one small shop in London and a workshop in Newark to a multi-billion pound company.
    It's an amazing business. And unsung engineering heroes, too. I was an avid customer in the early days, and now, 40 years later, I'm sinking the GDP of a small country into minis since my nearly-9yo daughter discovered 40k for herself.
    For all that I have great admiration for GW, there is a vast world of alternatives out there if you find 40K stuff too expensive. Depending on where you live, come to one of our shows at Newark next year and you can get some insight into depth of the hobby.

    Also remember the legend is that you can't die until you paint your last mini. I have about 20,000 of them as insurance :smile:
    That is ... impressive.

    I painted a few minis back in my teenage years, back when everything was still cast in metal. Never made the shift to plastic.

    My collection of “White Dwarf” back issues is sadly lost to time & entropy however.
    My collection of White Dwarf back issues was thrown out by my parents while I was at uni.
  • HYUFD said:

    FT

    Chancellor lines up stealth raid on Inheritance tax

    Good for him

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1589725227424047104?t=LeDqrQpkubI2GS3a6sveeQ&s=19

    At a time when the Tories are still on under 30% and at least half of that 30% will be wealthy property owners and their heirs in the South, a risky strategy, certainly if not reversed before the next general election and with Reform already up to 5%.

    Though a temporary freeze in the threshold as with most taxes provided the threshold raised before the next election not too damaging
    Already frozen beyond the next election, the report in the FT is suggesting extending that freeze to 2027/8.

    And the key word is "stealth". Having inflation do the government's necessary but dirty work is a bad thing. If nothing else, because of the way it hits people just above the threshold.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593
    Phil said:

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AlistairM said:

    That's a lot of money for a single plane. However, the An-225 was a real symbol of Ukraine's identity. It is clearly being done for the message that it sends.

    Ukraine has started construction of the second An-225 Mriya model aircraft. It will replace the legendary board, which was destroyed by the Russian invaders in Gostomel at the beginning of the invasion. According to the newspaper Bild, the new "Mriya" is already 30% ready.

    "The work is being done in a secret place. The second An-225 will be supplied with both new parts and parts of the damaged aircraft," said Yevhen Gavrilov, General Director of Antonov State Enterprise.

    The estimated cost of construction of the second "Mria" is 500 million euros.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1589699184734900224

    Half a billion Euros for a "model aircraft"!

    They're having a laugh.
    They have been looking at Games Workshop's pricing policy.
    Just received my copy of the newly published book on the origins of Games Worksop. Of particular interest to me as I worked for Citadel (the miniatures arm of GW) back in the early days before they moved everything to Nottingham and am still friends with most of the people mentioned in the book. It is an impressive success story to go from one small shop in London and a workshop in Newark to a multi-billion pound company.
    It's an amazing business. And unsung engineering heroes, too. I was an avid customer in the early days, and now, 40 years later, I'm sinking the GDP of a small country into minis since my nearly-9yo daughter discovered 40k for herself.
    I’m told there is a thriving world out there of home 3D printing of, shall we say, GW inspired miniatures. Most of it manages to avoid outright copyright / trademark infringement.

    An opportunity to funnel some of that expense into yet another nerd hobby?
    I don't have the ventilation for it, sadly. I've got some really nice 3D printed bits from others though.
  • kinabalu said:

    People I now hate:

    Bastards with snappy/stiff letterboxes. If you have a snappy outer flap, a thick rug in between, and a stiff inner flap, then I hate I hate your Mum as well.

    Arseholes with below knee height letterboxes. Lots of fun when carrying a big bag of mail over the shoulder. Why have it so fucking low? I despise you people

    People who demarcate their doorstep. When I could walk one step from letterbox to letterbox - sometimes in a semi that shares the same bit of concrete for a doorstep - some fuckers put a barrier that makes me walk an extra twenty metres between those letterboxes. Despicable twats.

    Lazy shits that won't put a house number somewhere visible. Those dicks don't deserve mail.

    Wankers who take five minutes to come to the door when it's pissing down with rain.

    Don't be one of them

    Chanelling Bukowski?
    Not intentionally.. Did he swear a lot?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FT

    Chancellor lines up stealth raid on Inheritance tax

    Good for him

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1589725227424047104?t=LeDqrQpkubI2GS3a6sveeQ&s=19

    At a time when the Tories are still on under 30% and at least half of that 30% will be wealthy property owners and their heirs in the South, a risky strategy, certainly if not reversed before the next general election and with Reform already up to 5%.

    Though a temporary freeze in the threshold as with most taxes provided the threshold raised before the next election not too damaging
    It is not going to be reversed and the 4,000 plus members who have already joined ReformUK provides hope for one nation conservatives that the right and its ERG are heading hopefully the same way as the Corbynites
    They aren't, basically Sunak is Gordon Brown 2010 on current polls not Cameron 2010 or Blair 1997 and if he and Sunak lose the next general election they will get the blame. Expect the Conservatives to then swing heavily to the populist right in opposition under Badenoch, Braverman, Mogg etc as Labour swung to the populist left under Ed Miliband and Corbyn after Brown's defeat.

    None of that lot will be in the HOC if Sunak cannot turn things round thankfully
    Based on majorities two out of three are likely to be in the HOC even if he cannot turn things round. Mogg is the most vulnerable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969

    HYUFD said:

    FT

    Chancellor lines up stealth raid on Inheritance tax

    Good for him

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1589725227424047104?t=LeDqrQpkubI2GS3a6sveeQ&s=19

    At a time when the Tories are still on under 30% and at least half of that 30% will be wealthy property owners and their heirs in the South, a risky strategy, certainly if not reversed before the next general election and with Reform already up to 5%.

    Though a temporary freeze in the threshold as with most taxes provided the threshold raised before the next election not too damaging
    Already frozen beyond the next election, the report in the FT is suggesting extending that freeze to 2027/8.

    And the key word is "stealth". Having inflation do the government's necessary but dirty work is a bad thing. If nothing else, because of the way it hits people just above the threshold.
    Well that is just the final nail in the coffin for any chance of Tory re election if true, not that that was likely anyway, even if a balance in the books is necessary you need to give your core vote and swing voters something to vote for
  • Phil said:

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AlistairM said:

    That's a lot of money for a single plane. However, the An-225 was a real symbol of Ukraine's identity. It is clearly being done for the message that it sends.

    Ukraine has started construction of the second An-225 Mriya model aircraft. It will replace the legendary board, which was destroyed by the Russian invaders in Gostomel at the beginning of the invasion. According to the newspaper Bild, the new "Mriya" is already 30% ready.

    "The work is being done in a secret place. The second An-225 will be supplied with both new parts and parts of the damaged aircraft," said Yevhen Gavrilov, General Director of Antonov State Enterprise.

    The estimated cost of construction of the second "Mria" is 500 million euros.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1589699184734900224

    Half a billion Euros for a "model aircraft"!

    They're having a laugh.
    They have been looking at Games Workshop's pricing policy.
    Just received my copy of the newly published book on the origins of Games Worksop. Of particular interest to me as I worked for Citadel (the miniatures arm of GW) back in the early days before they moved everything to Nottingham and am still friends with most of the people mentioned in the book. It is an impressive success story to go from one small shop in London and a workshop in Newark to a multi-billion pound company.
    It's an amazing business. And unsung engineering heroes, too. I was an avid customer in the early days, and now, 40 years later, I'm sinking the GDP of a small country into minis since my nearly-9yo daughter discovered 40k for herself.
    For all that I have great admiration for GW, there is a vast world of alternatives out there if you find 40K stuff too expensive. Depending on where you live, come to one of our shows at Newark next year and you can get some insight into depth of the hobby.

    Also remember the legend is that you can't die until you paint your last mini. I have about 20,000 of them as insurance :smile:
    That is ... impressive.

    I painted a few minis back in my teenage years, back when everything was still cast in metal. Never made the shift to plastic.

    My collection of “White Dwarf” back issues is sadly lost to time & entropy however.
    My collection of White Dwarf back issues was thrown out by my parents while I was at uni.
    I loved the early years when it used to cover more than just GW stuff but when it just became an in house magazine I lost interest.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Foxy said:

    AlistairM said:

    Could be a good caption contest.

    What an amazing, arresting pic from @StefanRousseau

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonPC/status/1589702334120341506

    Strictly 2023 ups its game.....
    Strong 2010 leader's debate leg-game there.


    Score was 111
    Whilst you are here BJO, where do you stand on Ed Miliband committing UK to climate reparations?
    I wouldnt call it that but as we chopped all our forests down to drive economic growth it seems reasonahle to compensate others so they dont chop all theirs down for the same reason.

    SKS wont unleash Eds plan too unpopular with the right wing voters he wants to attract
    Ref UK GAIN Doncaster North, we speak to defeated Labour former leader and MP Ed Miliband....
    'Bugger'
    Maybe. Maybe not...

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+1)
    CON: 27% (-3)
    LDEM: 10% (-2)
    REF: 5% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    via @RedfieldWilton, 06 Nov
    You sure that poll isn’t merely correction of previous outlier?
    Given Deltapoll has gone the other way it suggests things are bouncing around still looking for a new equilibrium
    The 2 polls have the Tories on 27 & 29 and Labour on 47 & 48. Sunak is in deep trouble if the polls start settling around those sort of figures.
    Still better than the 21% the Tories were on with Redfield and the 25% they were on with Deltapoll in Truss' last polls with the firm.

    However RefUK up to 5% suggests that while Sunak has gained a few voters back from Labour and the LDs, he has also leaked some Boris and Truss supporters on his right to RefUK
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
    One of the questions going forward is going to be how much of that RefUK vote can be won back by solving the boat situation (or at least mostly solving it) and how much is lost because some voters on the right just don't like Sunak.

    Another way of looking at it- peak Truss was about C32 L42. That would be game on (sort of) again, especially with a slug of swingback. But it's beginning to look like that's a bit out of reach for the Conservatives, which is fair enough. The situation is objectively worse now than then. Truss has gone but her awful legacy remains.
    I'm starting to think Sunak has a low ceiling. The Cons best outcome at the GE is probably to limit the damage in the blue wall.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AlistairM said:

    That's a lot of money for a single plane. However, the An-225 was a real symbol of Ukraine's identity. It is clearly being done for the message that it sends.

    Ukraine has started construction of the second An-225 Mriya model aircraft. It will replace the legendary board, which was destroyed by the Russian invaders in Gostomel at the beginning of the invasion. According to the newspaper Bild, the new "Mriya" is already 30% ready.

    "The work is being done in a secret place. The second An-225 will be supplied with both new parts and parts of the damaged aircraft," said Yevhen Gavrilov, General Director of Antonov State Enterprise.

    The estimated cost of construction of the second "Mria" is 500 million euros.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1589699184734900224

    Half a billion Euros for a "model aircraft"!

    They're having a laugh.
    They have been looking at Games Workshop's pricing policy.
    Just received my copy of the newly published book on the origins of Games Worksop. Of particular interest to me as I worked for Citadel (the miniatures arm of GW) back in the early days before they moved everything to Nottingham and am still friends with most of the people mentioned in the book. It is an impressive success story to go from one small shop in London and a workshop in Newark to a multi-billion pound company.
    It's an amazing business. And unsung engineering heroes, too. I was an avid customer in the early days, and now, 40 years later, I'm sinking the GDP of a small country into minis since my nearly-9yo daughter discovered 40k for herself.
    For all that I have great admiration for GW, there is a vast world of alternatives out there if you find 40K stuff too expensive. Depending on where you live, come to one of our shows at Newark next year and you can get some insight into depth of the hobby.

    Also remember the legend is that you can't die until you paint your last mini. I have about 20,000 of them as insurance :smile:
    Newark is an easy trip from Cambridge. And I may live forever at the rate I'm painting my Crazy Battle Nuns.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,316
    mwadams said:

    Phil said:

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AlistairM said:

    That's a lot of money for a single plane. However, the An-225 was a real symbol of Ukraine's identity. It is clearly being done for the message that it sends.

    Ukraine has started construction of the second An-225 Mriya model aircraft. It will replace the legendary board, which was destroyed by the Russian invaders in Gostomel at the beginning of the invasion. According to the newspaper Bild, the new "Mriya" is already 30% ready.

    "The work is being done in a secret place. The second An-225 will be supplied with both new parts and parts of the damaged aircraft," said Yevhen Gavrilov, General Director of Antonov State Enterprise.

    The estimated cost of construction of the second "Mria" is 500 million euros.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1589699184734900224

    Half a billion Euros for a "model aircraft"!

    They're having a laugh.
    They have been looking at Games Workshop's pricing policy.
    Just received my copy of the newly published book on the origins of Games Worksop. Of particular interest to me as I worked for Citadel (the miniatures arm of GW) back in the early days before they moved everything to Nottingham and am still friends with most of the people mentioned in the book. It is an impressive success story to go from one small shop in London and a workshop in Newark to a multi-billion pound company.
    It's an amazing business. And unsung engineering heroes, too. I was an avid customer in the early days, and now, 40 years later, I'm sinking the GDP of a small country into minis since my nearly-9yo daughter discovered 40k for herself.
    I’m told there is a thriving world out there of home 3D printing of, shall we say, GW inspired miniatures. Most of it manages to avoid outright copyright / trademark infringement.

    An opportunity to funnel some of that expense into yet another nerd hobby?
    I don't have the ventilation for it, sadly. I've got some really nice 3D printed bits from others though.
    Yes, that is one of the things that’s stopped me taking the plunge, despite the temptation offered by such an opportunity to tinker with compterised hardware.

    The fumes in the local Hackspace were really not good. They had the sense to put in place proper ventilation for the laser cutter, but somehow didn’t extend that to the 3D printers.
  • HYUFD said:

    FT

    Chancellor lines up stealth raid on Inheritance tax

    Good for him

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1589725227424047104?t=LeDqrQpkubI2GS3a6sveeQ&s=19

    At a time when the Tories are still on under 30% and at least half of that 30% will be wealthy property owners and their heirs in the South, a risky strategy, certainly if not reversed before the next general election and with Reform already up to 5%.

    Though a temporary freeze in the threshold as with most taxes provided the threshold raised before the next election not too damaging
    Already frozen beyond the next election, the report in the FT is suggesting extending that freeze to 2027/8.

    And the key word is "stealth". Having inflation do the government's necessary but dirty work is a bad thing. If nothing else, because of the way it hits people just above the threshold.
    I understand all the measures are extended into 2027/28 no doubt to gain OBR support, which if it is the case will raise questions for labours tax and spending plans for GE 24
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FT

    Chancellor lines up stealth raid on Inheritance tax

    Good for him

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1589725227424047104?t=LeDqrQpkubI2GS3a6sveeQ&s=19

    At a time when the Tories are still on under 30% and at least half of that 30% will be wealthy property owners and their heirs in the South, a risky strategy, certainly if not reversed before the next general election and with Reform already up to 5%.

    Though a temporary freeze in the threshold as with most taxes provided the threshold raised before the next election not too damaging
    It is not going to be reversed and the 4,000 plus members who have already joined ReformUK provides hope for one nation conservatives that the right and its ERG are heading hopefully the same way as the Corbynites
    They aren't, basically Sunak is Gordon Brown 2010 on current polls not Cameron 2010 or Blair 1997 and if he and Sunak lose the next general election they will get the blame. Expect the Conservatives to then swing heavily to the populist right in opposition under Badenoch, Braverman, Mogg etc as Labour swung to the populist left under Ed Miliband and Corbyn after Brown's defeat.

    None of that lot will be in the HOC if Sunak cannot turn things round thankfully
    Braverman and Badenoch would, Fareham and Saffron Walden are safe Tory seats and even Mogg's Somerset seat will be a bit safer after the boundary changes and is not a very close marginal
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    kle4 said:

    People I now hate:

    Bastards with snappy/stiff letterboxes. If you have a snappy outer flap, a thick rug in between, and a stiff inner flap, then I hate I hate your Mum as well.

    Arseholes with below knee height letterboxes. Lots of fun when carrying a big bag of mail over the shoulder. Why have it so fucking low? I despise you people

    People who demarcate their doorstep. When I could walk one step from letterbox to letterbox - sometimes in a semi that shares the same bit of concrete for a doorstep - some fuckers put a barrier that makes me walk an extra twenty metres between those letterboxes. Despicable twats.

    Lazy shits that won't put a house number somewhere visible. Those dicks don't deserve mail.

    Wankers who take five minutes to come to the door when it's pissing down with rain.

    Don't be one of them

    What do you do to people who commit all those sins?
    Even then I give them a big smile and do my best to deliver their mail. And if they turn out to be really nice people, despite their despicable obstacles, then I hate them a lot less
    What if they come to the door, but then realise they cannot find their key, so you're stuck waiting as they piss about amongst cluttered desks trying to find it?

    Asking for a friend.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mermaids over-reach becoming painfully obvious as their case is eviscerated by the Charity Commission counsel

    Absolutely key points from counsel for the Charity Commission. The law absolutely does not require all charities to have one particular view of issues that are highly contentious within society, as Mermaids seems to believe. Mermaids' position is fundamentally anti-democratic.

    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1589634810942607360

    This is what happens when you only ever listen to people who agree with you…”No Debate” meets “the real world”.

    Seems like a very strange case. There must be lots of charities have views other charities think are deeply wrong. The argument about primary purpose and charitable benefit seems kind of weak.
    Even Stonewall had the wit not to get drawn into this. Arrogance borne of hubris. And people too frightened to speak out. Not any more.
    You might want to ask which minority is being eviscerated in this for little gain. Trans people have the most to fear from this witch hunt.
    Help me understand, are male-to-female trans witches or wizards?

    Always find an alterantive wording if you can: and Wiccan is helpfully ungendered.
    Wiccan is a twat religion invented in 1956 by a civil servant....just saying
    From an atheist point of view, ALL religions were invented at some point.





    Well over 80% of us globally are still religious and


    believe in a God (or Gods)
    Your view is presumably very similar - you believe all religions to be works of fiction

    (other than your own)
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593
    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AlistairM said:

    That's a lot of money for a single plane. However, the An-225 was a real symbol of Ukraine's identity. It is clearly being done for the message that it sends.

    Ukraine has started construction of the second An-225 Mriya model aircraft. It will replace the legendary board, which was destroyed by the Russian invaders in Gostomel at the beginning of the invasion. According to the newspaper Bild, the new "Mriya" is already 30% ready.

    "The work is being done in a secret place. The second An-225 will be supplied with both new parts and parts of the damaged aircraft," said Yevhen Gavrilov, General Director of Antonov State Enterprise.

    The estimated cost of construction of the second "Mria" is 500 million euros.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1589699184734900224

    Half a billion Euros for a "model aircraft"!

    They're having a laugh.
    They have been looking at Games Workshop's pricing policy.
    Just received my copy of the newly published book on the origins of Games Worksop. Of particular interest to me as I worked for Citadel (the miniatures arm of GW) back in the early days before they moved everything to Nottingham and am still friends with most of the people mentioned in the book. It is an impressive success story to go from one small shop in London and a workshop in Newark to a multi-billion pound company.
    It's an amazing business. And unsung engineering heroes, too. I was an avid customer in the early days, and now, 40 years later, I'm sinking the GDP of a small country into minis since my nearly-9yo daughter discovered 40k for herself.
    For all that I have great admiration for GW, there is a vast world of alternatives out there if you find 40K stuff too expensive. Depending on where you live, come to one of our shows at Newark next year and you can get some insight into depth of the hobby.

    Also remember the legend is that you can't die until you paint your last mini. I have about 20,000 of them as insurance :smile:
    Newark is an easy trip from Cambridge. And I may live forever at the rate I'm painting my Crazy Battle Nuns.
    (Incidentally, I originally got into the hobby because of Callan!)
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FT

    Chancellor lines up stealth raid on Inheritance tax

    Good for him

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1589725227424047104?t=LeDqrQpkubI2GS3a6sveeQ&s=19

    At a time when the Tories are still on under 30% and at least half of that 30% will be wealthy property owners and their heirs in the South, a risky strategy, certainly if not reversed before the next general election and with Reform already up to 5%.

    Though a temporary freeze in the threshold as with most taxes provided the threshold raised before the next election not too damaging
    It is not going to be reversed and the 4,000 plus members who have already joined ReformUK provides hope for one nation conservatives that the right and its ERG are heading hopefully the same way as the Corbynites
    They aren't, basically Sunak is Gordon Brown 2010 on current polls not Cameron 2010 or Blair 1997 and if he and Sunak lose the next general election they will get the blame. Expect the Conservatives to then swing heavily to the populist right in opposition under Badenoch, Braverman, Mogg etc as Labour swung to the populist left under Ed Miliband and Corbyn after Brown's defeat.

    None of that lot will be in the HOC if Sunak cannot turn things round thankfully
    Braverman and Badenoch would, Fareham and Saffron Walden are safe Tory seats and even Mogg's Somerset seat will be a bit safer after the boundary changes and is not a very close marginal
    No seats are safe unless Rishi turns public opinion round
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    edited November 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mermaids over-reach becoming painfully obvious as their case is eviscerated by the Charity Commission counsel

    Absolutely key points from counsel for the Charity Commission. The law absolutely does not require all charities to have one particular view of issues that are highly contentious within society, as Mermaids seems to believe. Mermaids' position is fundamentally anti-democratic.

    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1589634810942607360

    This is what happens when you only ever listen to people who agree with you…”No Debate” meets “the real world”.

    Seems like a very strange case. There must be lots of charities have views other charities think are deeply wrong. The argument about primary purpose and charitable benefit seems kind of weak.
    Even Stonewall had the wit not to get drawn into this. Arrogance borne of hubris. And people too frightened to speak out. Not any more.
    You might want to ask which minority is being eviscerated in this for little gain. Trans people have the most to fear from this witch hunt.
    Help me understand, are male-to-female trans witches or wizards?

    Always find an alterantive wording if you can: and Wiccan is helpfully ungendered.
    Wiccan is a twat religion invented in 1956 by a civil servant....just saying
    From an atheist point of view, ALL religions were invented at some point.





    Well over 80% of us globally are still religious and


    believe in a God (or Gods)
    Your view is presumably very similar - you believe all religions to be works of fiction

    (other than your own)
    Christianity, Islam and Judaism all believe in the same Abrahamic God and their followers make up over 50% of the global population
  • People I now hate:

    Bastards with snappy/stiff letterboxes. If you have a snappy outer flap, a thick rug in between, and a stiff inner flap, then I hate I hate your Mum as well.

    Arseholes with below knee height letterboxes. Lots of fun when carrying a big bag of mail over the shoulder. Why have it so fucking low? I despise you people

    People who demarcate their doorstep. When I could walk one step from letterbox to letterbox - sometimes in a semi that shares the same bit of concrete for a doorstep - some fuckers put a barrier that makes me walk an extra twenty metres between those letterboxes. Despicable twats.

    Lazy shits that won't put a house number somewhere visible. Those dicks don't deserve mail.

    Wankers who take five minutes to come to the door when it's pissing down with rain.

    Don't be one of them

    Use a wooden spoon/plastic spatula. Take snappy/stiff letterboxes in their stride. They will also be eaten by those maniacal devil dogs that wait for post in silence. Better they get a mouthful of that than your fingers....
    I've got four houses where the dog snatches the mail. They're the four easiest houses on my round. My hand doesn't even get close to the outside of the door
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    "Trump began telling people on Monday that he planned to announce his third presidential campaign [tonight], at a rally in Dayton," reports @maggieNYT
    "[some] Republicans were expressing hope that that plan had fizzled.." https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/11/07/us/election-midterm-news#trump-2024-gop
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mermaids over-reach becoming painfully obvious as their case is eviscerated by the Charity Commission counsel

    Absolutely key points from counsel for the Charity Commission. The law absolutely does not require all charities to have one particular view of issues that are highly contentious within society, as Mermaids seems to believe. Mermaids' position is fundamentally anti-democratic.

    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1589634810942607360

    This is what happens when you only ever listen to people who agree with you…”No Debate” meets “the real world”.

    Seems like a very strange case. There must be lots of charities have views other charities think are deeply wrong. The argument about primary purpose and charitable benefit seems kind of weak.
    Even Stonewall had the wit not to get drawn into this. Arrogance borne of hubris. And people too frightened to speak out. Not any more.
    You might want to ask which minority is being eviscerated in this for little gain. Trans people have the most to fear from this witch hunt.
    Help me understand, are male-to-female trans witches or wizards?

    Always find an alterantive wording if you can: and Wiccan is helpfully ungendered.
    Wiccan is a twat religion invented in 1956 by a civil servant....just saying
    From an atheist point of view, ALL religions were invented at some point.





    Well over 80% of us globally are still religious and


    believe in a God (or Gods)
    Your view is presumably very similar - you believe all religions to be works of fiction

    (other than your own)
    Christianity, Islam and Judaism all believe in the same Abrahamic God and their followers make up over 50% of the global population
    Doesn't mean that "Abrahamic God" actually exists!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FT

    Chancellor lines up stealth raid on Inheritance tax

    Good for him

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1589725227424047104?t=LeDqrQpkubI2GS3a6sveeQ&s=19

    At a time when the Tories are still on under 30% and at least half of that 30% will be wealthy property owners and their heirs in the South, a risky strategy, certainly if not reversed before the next general election and with Reform already up to 5%.

    Though a temporary freeze in the threshold as with most taxes provided the threshold raised before the next election not too damaging
    It is not going to be reversed and the 4,000 plus members who have already joined ReformUK provides hope for one nation conservatives that the right and its ERG are heading hopefully the same way as the Corbynites
    They aren't, basically Sunak is Gordon Brown 2010 on current polls not Cameron 2010 or Blair 1997 and if he and Sunak lose the next general election they will get the blame. Expect the Conservatives to then swing heavily to the populist right in opposition under Badenoch, Braverman, Mogg etc as Labour swung to the populist left under Ed Miliband and Corbyn after Brown's defeat.

    None of that lot will be in the HOC if Sunak cannot turn things round thankfully
    Braverman and Badenoch would, Fareham and Saffron Walden are safe Tory seats and even Mogg's Somerset seat will be a bit safer after the boundary changes and is not a very close marginal
    No seats are safe unless Rishi turns public opinion round
    On today's polling the Tories would still win about 150 to 200 seats as in 1997 and 2001 and 2005
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Foxy said:

    AlistairM said:

    Could be a good caption contest.

    What an amazing, arresting pic from @StefanRousseau

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonPC/status/1589702334120341506

    Strictly 2023 ups its game.....
    Strong 2010 leader's debate leg-game there.


    Score was 111
    Whilst you are here BJO, where do you stand on Ed Miliband committing UK to climate reparations?
    I wouldnt call it that but as we chopped all our forests down to drive economic growth it seems reasonahle to compensate others so they dont chop all theirs down for the same reason.

    SKS wont unleash Eds plan too unpopular with the right wing voters he wants to attract
    Ref UK GAIN Doncaster North, we speak to defeated Labour former leader and MP Ed Miliband....
    'Bugger'
    Maybe. Maybe not...

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+1)
    CON: 27% (-3)
    LDEM: 10% (-2)
    REF: 5% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    via @RedfieldWilton, 06 Nov
    You sure that poll isn’t merely correction of previous outlier?
    Given Deltapoll has gone the other way it suggests things are bouncing around still looking for a new equilibrium
    The 2 polls have the Tories on 27 & 29 and Labour on 47 & 48. Sunak is in deep trouble if the polls start settling around those sort of figures.
    Still better than the 21% the Tories were on with Redfield and the 25% they were on with Deltapoll in Truss' last polls with the firm.

    However RefUK up to 5% suggests that while Sunak has gained a few voters back from Labour and the LDs, he has also leaked some Boris and Truss supporters on his right to RefUK
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
    I don't think anyone expected that the terrible polls the Tories suffered under Truss's were going to continue with a new leader. The question was always going to be how far they recovered.

    Things could yet change but if these polls are showing the full extent of Sunak's "bounce" then the Tories must be really disappointed.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    Foxy said:

    AlistairM said:

    Could be a good caption contest.

    What an amazing, arresting pic from @StefanRousseau

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonPC/status/1589702334120341506

    Strictly 2023 ups its game.....
    Strong 2010 leader's debate leg-game there.


    Score was 111
    Whilst you are here BJO, where do you stand on Ed Miliband committing UK to climate reparations?
    I wouldnt call it that but as we chopped all our forests down to drive economic growth it seems reasonahle to compensate others so they dont chop all theirs down for the same reason.

    SKS wont unleash Eds plan too unpopular with the right wing voters he wants to attract
    Ref UK GAIN Doncaster North, we speak to defeated Labour former leader and MP Ed Miliband....
    'Bugger'
    Maybe. Maybe not...

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+1)
    CON: 27% (-3)
    LDEM: 10% (-2)
    REF: 5% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    via @RedfieldWilton, 06 Nov
    You sure that poll isn’t merely correction of previous outlier?
    Given Deltapoll has gone the other way it suggests things are bouncing around still looking for a new equilibrium
    The 2 polls have the Tories on 27 & 29 and Labour on 47 & 48. Sunak is in deep trouble if the polls start settling around those sort of figures.
    Obviously, yes
    You were implying the polls are bouncing around looking for a new equilibrium.

    I'm saying they aren't and that the polls seem to settling around a 15-20% Labour lead.
    They may be and that would be a big problem for the Tories, however thats not what you said. You said 'if the polls start settling around those sorts of figures' and i agreed that yes, that would be the case if they did.
    We will see if they have or not over the next fortnight or so
  • Phil said:

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AlistairM said:

    That's a lot of money for a single plane. However, the An-225 was a real symbol of Ukraine's identity. It is clearly being done for the message that it sends.

    Ukraine has started construction of the second An-225 Mriya model aircraft. It will replace the legendary board, which was destroyed by the Russian invaders in Gostomel at the beginning of the invasion. According to the newspaper Bild, the new "Mriya" is already 30% ready.

    "The work is being done in a secret place. The second An-225 will be supplied with both new parts and parts of the damaged aircraft," said Yevhen Gavrilov, General Director of Antonov State Enterprise.

    The estimated cost of construction of the second "Mria" is 500 million euros.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1589699184734900224

    Half a billion Euros for a "model aircraft"!

    They're having a laugh.
    They have been looking at Games Workshop's pricing policy.
    Just received my copy of the newly published book on the origins of Games Worksop. Of particular interest to me as I worked for Citadel (the miniatures arm of GW) back in the early days before they moved everything to Nottingham and am still friends with most of the people mentioned in the book. It is an impressive success story to go from one small shop in London and a workshop in Newark to a multi-billion pound company.
    It's an amazing business. And unsung engineering heroes, too. I was an avid customer in the early days, and now, 40 years later, I'm sinking the GDP of a small country into minis since my nearly-9yo daughter discovered 40k for herself.
    For all that I have great admiration for GW, there is a vast world of alternatives out there if you find 40K stuff too expensive. Depending on where you live, come to one of our shows at Newark next year and you can get some insight into depth of the hobby.

    Also remember the legend is that you can't die until you paint your last mini. I have about 20,000 of them as insurance :smile:
    That is ... impressive.

    I painted a few minis back in my teenage years, back when everything was still cast in metal. Never made the shift to plastic.

    My collection of “White Dwarf” back issues is sadly lost to time & entropy however.
    My collection of White Dwarf back issues was thrown out by my parents while I was at uni.
    I loved the early years when it used to cover more than just GW stuff but when it just became an in house magazine I lost interest.
    I always preferred the more niche games than the main collecting an army ones. Started off with Hero Quest and Space Crusade in the 80s, then Blood Bowl and Warhammer Quest in the 90s. Utterly loved Blood Bowl and at one stage I think I had just about every team available.

    This century I've sometimes collected miniatures, but its just for the hobby of painting them now not actually playing the games in person anymore.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FT

    Chancellor lines up stealth raid on Inheritance tax

    Good for him

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1589725227424047104?t=LeDqrQpkubI2GS3a6sveeQ&s=19

    At a time when the Tories are still on under 30% and at least half of that 30% will be wealthy property owners and their heirs in the South, a risky strategy, certainly if not reversed before the next general election and with Reform already up to 5%.

    Though a temporary freeze in the threshold as with most taxes provided the threshold raised before the next election not too damaging
    It is not going to be reversed and the 4,000 plus members who have already joined ReformUK provides hope for one nation conservatives that the right and its ERG are heading hopefully the same way as the Corbynites
    They aren't, basically Sunak is Gordon Brown 2010 on current polls not Cameron 2010 or Blair 1997 and if he and Sunak lose the next general election they will get the blame. Expect the Conservatives to then swing heavily to the populist right in opposition under Badenoch, Braverman, Mogg etc as Labour swung to the populist left under Ed Miliband and Corbyn after Brown's defeat.

    None of that lot will be in the HOC if Sunak cannot turn things round thankfully
    Braverman and Badenoch would, Fareham and Saffron Walden are safe Tory seats and even Mogg's Somerset seat will be a bit safer after the boundary changes and is not a very close marginal
    No seats are safe unless Rishi turns public opinion round
    Saffron Walden is.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,316

    Phil said:

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AlistairM said:

    That's a lot of money for a single plane. However, the An-225 was a real symbol of Ukraine's identity. It is clearly being done for the message that it sends.

    Ukraine has started construction of the second An-225 Mriya model aircraft. It will replace the legendary board, which was destroyed by the Russian invaders in Gostomel at the beginning of the invasion. According to the newspaper Bild, the new "Mriya" is already 30% ready.

    "The work is being done in a secret place. The second An-225 will be supplied with both new parts and parts of the damaged aircraft," said Yevhen Gavrilov, General Director of Antonov State Enterprise.

    The estimated cost of construction of the second "Mria" is 500 million euros.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1589699184734900224

    Half a billion Euros for a "model aircraft"!

    They're having a laugh.
    They have been looking at Games Workshop's pricing policy.
    Just received my copy of the newly published book on the origins of Games Worksop. Of particular interest to me as I worked for Citadel (the miniatures arm of GW) back in the early days before they moved everything to Nottingham and am still friends with most of the people mentioned in the book. It is an impressive success story to go from one small shop in London and a workshop in Newark to a multi-billion pound company.
    It's an amazing business. And unsung engineering heroes, too. I was an avid customer in the early days, and now, 40 years later, I'm sinking the GDP of a small country into minis since my nearly-9yo daughter discovered 40k for herself.
    For all that I have great admiration for GW, there is a vast world of alternatives out there if you find 40K stuff too expensive. Depending on where you live, come to one of our shows at Newark next year and you can get some insight into depth of the hobby.

    Also remember the legend is that you can't die until you paint your last mini. I have about 20,000 of them as insurance :smile:
    That is ... impressive.

    I painted a few minis back in my teenage years, back when everything was still cast in metal. Never made the shift to plastic.

    My collection of “White Dwarf” back issues is sadly lost to time & entropy however.
    My collection of White Dwarf back issues was thrown out by my parents while I was at uni.
    I loved the early years when it used to cover more than just GW stuff but when it just became an in house magazine I lost interest.
    Same. I kept buying it for a while, but once it turned into a pure marketing magazine it no longer held much appeal.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Hurray Civiqs has done a poll of Indiana.

    It has a much more realistic figure of 49/38 in favour of the GOP.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    I am shocked - shocked! - to discover some PBers are into miniatures.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    edited November 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mermaids over-reach becoming painfully obvious as their case is eviscerated by the Charity Commission counsel

    Absolutely key points from counsel for the Charity Commission. The law absolutely does not require all charities to have one particular view of issues that are highly contentious within society, as Mermaids seems to believe. Mermaids' position is fundamentally anti-democratic.

    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1589634810942607360

    This is what happens when you only ever listen to people who agree with you…”No Debate” meets “the real world”.

    Seems like a very strange case. There must be lots of charities have views other charities think are deeply wrong. The argument about primary purpose and charitable benefit seems kind of weak.
    Even Stonewall had the wit not to get drawn into this. Arrogance borne of hubris. And people too frightened to speak out. Not any more.
    You might want to ask which minority is being eviscerated in this for little gain. Trans people have the most to fear from this witch hunt.
    Help me understand, are male-to-female trans witches or wizards?

    Always find an alterantive wording if you can: and Wiccan is helpfully ungendered.
    Wiccan is a twat religion invented in 1956 by a civil servant....just saying
    From an atheist point of view, ALL religions were invented at some point.
    Well over 80% of us globally are still religious and believe in a God (or Gods)
    ..and have left a tide of death, destruction and misery throughout history fighting over whether your flavour of invented God is any better than other people’s flavours.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159

    kinabalu said:

    People I now hate:

    Bastards with snappy/stiff letterboxes. If you have a snappy outer flap, a thick rug in between, and a stiff inner flap, then I hate I hate your Mum as well.

    Arseholes with below knee height letterboxes. Lots of fun when carrying a big bag of mail over the shoulder. Why have it so fucking low? I despise you people

    People who demarcate their doorstep. When I could walk one step from letterbox to letterbox - sometimes in a semi that shares the same bit of concrete for a doorstep - some fuckers put a barrier that makes me walk an extra twenty metres between those letterboxes. Despicable twats.

    Lazy shits that won't put a house number somewhere visible. Those dicks don't deserve mail.

    Wankers who take five minutes to come to the door when it's pissing down with rain.

    Don't be one of them

    Chanelling Bukowski?
    Not intentionally.. Did he swear a lot?
    He wrote a novel about the trials and tribs of working the mail. Post Office.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593

    Phil said:

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AlistairM said:

    That's a lot of money for a single plane. However, the An-225 was a real symbol of Ukraine's identity. It is clearly being done for the message that it sends.

    Ukraine has started construction of the second An-225 Mriya model aircraft. It will replace the legendary board, which was destroyed by the Russian invaders in Gostomel at the beginning of the invasion. According to the newspaper Bild, the new "Mriya" is already 30% ready.

    "The work is being done in a secret place. The second An-225 will be supplied with both new parts and parts of the damaged aircraft," said Yevhen Gavrilov, General Director of Antonov State Enterprise.

    The estimated cost of construction of the second "Mria" is 500 million euros.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1589699184734900224

    Half a billion Euros for a "model aircraft"!

    They're having a laugh.
    They have been looking at Games Workshop's pricing policy.
    Just received my copy of the newly published book on the origins of Games Worksop. Of particular interest to me as I worked for Citadel (the miniatures arm of GW) back in the early days before they moved everything to Nottingham and am still friends with most of the people mentioned in the book. It is an impressive success story to go from one small shop in London and a workshop in Newark to a multi-billion pound company.
    It's an amazing business. And unsung engineering heroes, too. I was an avid customer in the early days, and now, 40 years later, I'm sinking the GDP of a small country into minis since my nearly-9yo daughter discovered 40k for herself.
    For all that I have great admiration for GW, there is a vast world of alternatives out there if you find 40K stuff too expensive. Depending on where you live, come to one of our shows at Newark next year and you can get some insight into depth of the hobby.

    Also remember the legend is that you can't die until you paint your last mini. I have about 20,000 of them as insurance :smile:
    That is ... impressive.

    I painted a few minis back in my teenage years, back when everything was still cast in metal. Never made the shift to plastic.

    My collection of “White Dwarf” back issues is sadly lost to time & entropy however.
    My collection of White Dwarf back issues was thrown out by my parents while I was at uni.
    I loved the early years when it used to cover more than just GW stuff but when it just became an in house magazine I lost interest.
    I always preferred the more niche games than the main collecting an army ones. Started off with Hero Quest and Space Crusade in the 80s, then Blood Bowl and Warhammer Quest in the 90s. Utterly loved Blood Bowl and at one stage I think I had just about every team available.

    This century I've sometimes collected miniatures, but its just for the hobby of painting them now not actually playing the games in person anymore.
    I started a narrative game with my daughter at the weekend. It's a lot of fun playing with her.

    I also like Blood Bowl - and we got Aeronautica last Xmas which is a great hex-based game (with tiny planes to paint)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Boris Johnson continues his campaign to have the Lords abolished.

    Brilliant scoop by @lara_spirit

    The teenagers who (barely) ran No10 are now going to vote on legislation.

    And FOUR by-elections coming

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9feabd7c-5ede-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=54fb8195c88f326fc5a9b4530e3ffe51
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,161

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    A twenty something friend of Fox Jr, a talented designer in a thriving industry, has just given notice and taken a job in Vancouver. Canada takes a different attitude to immigration. See here:

    https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1587533261831639040?t=WedvodUnINwtmKNWe8oLqA&s=19

    Yes but Canada has over 30 times the UK landmass and just over half the UK population, so it can afford to!
    Although most of Canada's landmass is pretty inhospitable. Not as bad as Australia, for sure, but still.

    (Hence the fact that the cost of buying a home in Vancouver is probably at least as bad as London.)
    Depends how you measure it. Probably not on a square feet basis.
    It's pretty close on a square foot basis: both are a little under $1,000.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792

    People I now hate:

    Bastards with snappy/stiff letterboxes. If you have a snappy outer flap, a thick rug in between, and a stiff inner flap, then I hate I hate your Mum as well.

    Arseholes with below knee height letterboxes. Lots of fun when carrying a big bag of mail over the shoulder. Why have it so fucking low? I despise you people

    People who demarcate their doorstep. When I could walk one step from letterbox to letterbox - sometimes in a semi that shares the same bit of concrete for a doorstep - some fuckers put a barrier that makes me walk an extra twenty metres between those letterboxes. Despicable twats.

    Lazy shits that won't put a house number somewhere visible. Those dicks don't deserve mail.

    Wankers who take five minutes to come to the door when it's pissing down with rain.

    Don't be one of them

    Use a wooden spoon/plastic spatula. Take snappy/stiff letterboxes in their stride. They will also be eaten by those maniacal devil dogs that wait for post in silence. Better they get a mouthful of that than your fingers....
    I've got four houses where the dog snatches the mail. They're the four easiest houses on my round. My hand doesn't even get close to the outside of the door
    Oh for the days of the dog licence. They're a good idea. Let everyone have one, but if there's good reason to think their lack of proper control over their dog is causing problems, take it away.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,015

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mermaids over-reach becoming painfully obvious as their case is eviscerated by the Charity Commission counsel

    Absolutely key points from counsel for the Charity Commission. The law absolutely does not require all charities to have one particular view of issues that are highly contentious within society, as Mermaids seems to believe. Mermaids' position is fundamentally anti-democratic.

    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1589634810942607360

    This is what happens when you only ever listen to people who agree with you…”No Debate” meets “the real world”.

    Seems like a very strange case. There must be lots of charities have views other charities think are deeply wrong. The argument about primary purpose and charitable benefit seems kind of weak.
    Even Stonewall had the wit not to get drawn into this. Arrogance borne of hubris. And people too frightened to speak out. Not any more.
    You might want to ask which minority is being eviscerated in this for little gain. Trans people have the most to fear from this witch hunt.
    Help me understand, are male-to-female trans witches or wizards?

    Always find an alterantive wording if you can: and Wiccan is helpfully ungendered.
    Wiccan is a twat religion invented in 1956 by a civil servant....just saying
    From an atheist point of view, ALL religions were invented at some point.





    Well over 80% of us globally are still religious and


    believe in a God (or Gods)
    Your view is presumably very similar - you believe all religions to be works of fiction

    (other than your own)
    That would be an ecumenical matter.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FT

    Chancellor lines up stealth raid on Inheritance tax

    Good for him

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1589725227424047104?t=LeDqrQpkubI2GS3a6sveeQ&s=19

    At a time when the Tories are still on under 30% and at least half of that 30% will be wealthy property owners and their heirs in the South, a risky strategy, certainly if not reversed before the next general election and with Reform already up to 5%.

    Though a temporary freeze in the threshold as with most taxes provided the threshold raised before the next election not too damaging
    It is not going to be reversed and the 4,000 plus members who have already joined ReformUK provides hope for one nation conservatives that the right and its ERG are heading hopefully the same way as the Corbynites
    They aren't, basically Sunak is Gordon Brown 2010 on current polls not Cameron 2010 or Blair 1997 and if he and Sunak lose the next general election they will get the blame. Expect the Conservatives to then swing heavily to the populist right in opposition under Badenoch, Braverman, Mogg etc as Labour swung to the populist left under Ed Miliband and Corbyn after Brown's defeat.

    None of that lot will be in the HOC if Sunak cannot turn things round thankfully
    Are you sure? Saffron Walden is safe for the Conservatives even on 25%, so that's Badenoch OK. Fareham + Waterlooville just flips on those numbers, but Hedge End is next door and a better Conservative prospect. That keeps Braverman in.

    I'd much rather see a return to One Nation Conservatism, but I suspect that, if the party loses in 2024, it will take the long way round, because that's what parties do these days.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,995
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Foxy said:

    AlistairM said:

    Could be a good caption contest.

    What an amazing, arresting pic from @StefanRousseau

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonPC/status/1589702334120341506

    Strictly 2023 ups its game.....
    Strong 2010 leader's debate leg-game there.


    Score was 111
    Whilst you are here BJO, where do you stand on Ed Miliband committing UK to climate reparations?
    I wouldnt call it that but as we chopped all our forests down to drive economic growth it seems reasonahle to compensate others so they dont chop all theirs down for the same reason.

    SKS wont unleash Eds plan too unpopular with the right wing voters he wants to attract
    Ref UK GAIN Doncaster North, we speak to defeated Labour former leader and MP Ed Miliband....
    'Bugger'
    Maybe. Maybe not...

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+1)
    CON: 27% (-3)
    LDEM: 10% (-2)
    REF: 5% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    via @RedfieldWilton, 06 Nov
    You sure that poll isn’t merely correction of previous outlier?
    Given Deltapoll has gone the other way it suggests things are bouncing around still looking for a new equilibrium
    The 2 polls have the Tories on 27 & 29 and Labour on 47 & 48. Sunak is in deep trouble if the polls start settling around those sort of figures.
    Still better than the 21% the Tories were on with Redfield and the 25% they were on with Deltapoll in Truss' last polls with the firm.

    However RefUK up to 5% suggests that while Sunak has gained a few voters back from Labour and the LDs, he has also leaked some Boris and Truss supporters on his right to RefUK
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
    One of the questions going forward is going to be how much of that RefUK vote can be won back by solving the boat situation (or at least mostly solving it) and how much is lost because some voters on the right just don't like Sunak.

    Another way of looking at it- peak Truss was about C32 L42. That would be game on (sort of) again, especially with a slug of swingback. But it's beginning to look like that's a bit out of
    reach for the Conservatives, which is fair enough. The situation is objectively worse now than then. Truss has gone but her awful legacy remains.
    I'm starting to think Sunak has a low ceiling. The Cons best outcome at the GE is probably to limit the damage in the blue wall.
    I expect so, but not that low. It’s only a year and a bit ago that the government was scoring at 40%+. That’s a good 10% of voters who until recently were planning to vote Tory and not enamoured of Labour. There has been a sea change since then of course but I could see them climbing back up to the mid 30s if things stay uneventful for a while.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Foxy said:

    AlistairM said:

    Could be a good caption contest.

    What an amazing, arresting pic from @StefanRousseau

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonPC/status/1589702334120341506

    Strictly 2023 ups its game.....
    Strong 2010 leader's debate leg-game there.


    Score was 111
    Whilst you are here BJO, where do you stand on Ed Miliband committing UK to climate reparations?
    I wouldnt call it that but as we chopped all our forests down to drive economic growth it seems reasonahle to compensate others so they dont chop all theirs down for the same reason.

    SKS wont unleash Eds plan too unpopular with the right wing voters he wants to attract
    Ref UK GAIN Doncaster North, we speak to defeated Labour former leader and MP Ed Miliband....
    'Bugger'
    Maybe. Maybe not...

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+1)
    CON: 27% (-3)
    LDEM: 10% (-2)
    REF: 5% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    via @RedfieldWilton, 06 Nov
    You sure that poll isn’t merely correction of previous outlier?
    Given Deltapoll has gone the other way it suggests things are bouncing around still looking for a new equilibrium
    The 2 polls have the Tories on 27 & 29 and Labour on 47 & 48. Sunak is in deep trouble if the polls start settling around those sort of figures.
    Still better than the 21% the Tories were on with Redfield and the 25% they were on with Deltapoll in Truss' last polls with the firm.

    However RefUK up to 5% suggests that while Sunak has gained a few voters back from Labour and the LDs, he has also leaked some Boris and Truss supporters on his right to RefUK
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
    One of the questions going forward is going to be how much of that RefUK vote can be won back by solving the boat situation (or at least mostly solving it) and how much is lost because some voters on the right just don't like Sunak.

    Another way of looking at it- peak Truss was about C32 L42. That would be game on (sort of) again, especially with a slug of swingback. But it's beginning to look like that's a bit out of reach for the Conservatives, which is fair enough. The situation is objectively worse now than then. Truss has gone but her awful legacy remains.
    Don’t like Sunak because of policies or colour? If it’s the latter, the Conservative Party is well rid of them.
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    People I now hate:

    Bastards with snappy/stiff letterboxes. If you have a snappy outer flap, a thick rug in between, and a stiff inner flap, then I hate I hate your Mum as well.

    Arseholes with below knee height letterboxes. Lots of fun when carrying a big bag of mail over the shoulder. Why have it so fucking low? I despise you people

    People who demarcate their doorstep. When I could walk one step from letterbox to letterbox - sometimes in a semi that shares the same bit of concrete for a doorstep - some fuckers put a barrier that makes me walk an extra twenty metres between those letterboxes. Despicable twats.

    Lazy shits that won't put a house number somewhere visible. Those dicks don't deserve mail.

    Wankers who take five minutes to come to the door when it's pissing down with rain.

    Don't be one of them

    Chanelling Bukowski?
    Not intentionally.. Did he swear a lot?
    He wrote a novel about the trials and tribs of working the mail. Post Office.
    Thanks, I might read that
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,015
    A fair few PBers outing themselves as geeky anoraks this evening.

    Maybe I should stay on RF where the cool kids hang out?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson continues his campaign to have the Lords abolished.

    Brilliant scoop by @lara_spirit

    The teenagers who (barely) ran No10 are now going to vote on legislation.

    And FOUR by-elections coming

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9feabd7c-5ede-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=54fb8195c88f326fc5a9b4530e3ffe51

    Right now we'd expect all four to be lost, but holding even one might even boost Sunak a little.

    Alister Jack - Dumfries and Galloway - Maj 1805 from SNP - not a hope
    Alok Sharma - Reading West - Maj 4117 from Lab - zero chance
    Nigel Adams (who?) Selby and Ainsty - Maj 20,137 from Lab - possibly
    Nadine Dorries - Mid Bedfordshire - Maj 24,664 from Lab - reasonable, but not likely with some of the big swings lately.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AlistairM said:

    That's a lot of money for a single plane. However, the An-225 was a real symbol of Ukraine's identity. It is clearly being done for the message that it sends.

    Ukraine has started construction of the second An-225 Mriya model aircraft. It will replace the legendary board, which was destroyed by the Russian invaders in Gostomel at the beginning of the invasion. According to the newspaper Bild, the new "Mriya" is already 30% ready.

    "The work is being done in a secret place. The second An-225 will be supplied with both new parts and parts of the damaged aircraft," said Yevhen Gavrilov, General Director of Antonov State Enterprise.

    The estimated cost of construction of the second "Mria" is 500 million euros.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1589699184734900224

    Half a billion Euros for a "model aircraft"!

    They're having a laugh.
    They have been looking at Games Workshop's pricing policy.
    They just need a large group of spotty teenage boys to badger their parents into stumping up the cash then.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    edited November 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FT

    Chancellor lines up stealth raid on Inheritance tax

    Good for him

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1589725227424047104?t=LeDqrQpkubI2GS3a6sveeQ&s=19

    At a time when the Tories are still on under 30% and at least half of that 30% will be wealthy property owners and their heirs in the South, a risky strategy, certainly if not reversed before the next general election and with Reform already up to 5%.

    Though a temporary freeze in the threshold as with most taxes provided the threshold raised before the next election not too damaging
    It is not going to be reversed and the 4,000 plus members who have already joined ReformUK provides hope for one nation conservatives that the right and its ERG are heading hopefully the same way as the Corbynites
    They aren't, basically Sunak is Gordon Brown 2010 on current polls not Cameron 2010 or Blair 1997 and if he and Sunak lose the next general election they will get the blame. Expect the Conservatives to then swing heavily to the populist right in opposition under Badenoch, Braverman, Mogg etc as Labour swung to the populist left under Ed Miliband and Corbyn after Brown's defeat.

    None of that lot will be in the HOC if Sunak cannot turn things round thankfully
    Are you sure? Saffron Walden is safe for the Conservatives even on 25%, so that's Badenoch OK. Fareham + Waterlooville just flips on those numbers, but Hedge End is next door and a better Conservative prospect. That keeps Braverman in.

    I'd much rather see a return to One Nation Conservatism, but I suspect that, if the party loses in 2024, it will take the long way round, because that's what parties do these days.
    Indeed, it took 14 years after the centrist Callaghan lost and then resigned as leader for Labour to get to the centrist Blair, going through Foot, Kinnock and Smith in the process (though Smith not as left as the other 2).

    It took 8 years after centrist Major lost to get to centrist Cameron, during which the Tories were led by Hague, IDS and Howard.

    It took 13 years after centrist Blair went for Labour to elect more centrist Starmer, going through Brown, Ed Miliband and Corbyn in the process.

    If centrist Sunak and Hunt lose the next election the populist right will likely take control of the Conservative party for the next decade after
  • Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson continues his campaign to have the Lords abolished.

    Brilliant scoop by @lara_spirit

    The teenagers who (barely) ran No10 are now going to vote on legislation.

    And FOUR by-elections coming

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9feabd7c-5ede-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=54fb8195c88f326fc5a9b4530e3ffe51

    I somehow doubt Douglas Ross fancies having a by-election in D&G right now. Quite possible SCONs could come third.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mermaids over-reach becoming painfully obvious as their case is eviscerated by the Charity Commission counsel

    Absolutely key points from counsel for the Charity Commission. The law absolutely does not require all charities to have one particular view of issues that are highly contentious within society, as Mermaids seems to believe. Mermaids' position is fundamentally anti-democratic.

    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1589634810942607360

    This is what happens when you only ever listen to people who agree with you…”No Debate” meets “the real world”.

    Seems like a very strange case. There must be lots of charities have views other charities think are deeply wrong. The argument about primary purpose and charitable benefit seems kind of weak.
    Even Stonewall had the wit not to get drawn into this. Arrogance borne of hubris. And people too frightened to speak out. Not any more.
    You might want to ask which minority is being eviscerated in this for little gain. Trans people have the most to fear from this witch hunt.
    Help me understand, are male-to-female trans witches or wizards?

    Always find an alterantive wording if you can: and Wiccan is helpfully ungendered.
    Wiccan is a twat religion invented in 1956 by a civil servant....just saying
    From an atheist point of view, ALL religions were invented at some point.





    Well over 80% of us globally are still religious and


    believe in a God (or Gods)
    Your view is presumably very similar - you believe all religions to be works of fiction

    (other than your own)
    Christianity, Islam and Judaism all believe in the same Abrahamic God and their followers make up over 50% of the global population
    Doesn't mean that "Abrahamic God" actually exists!
    I'm more of an Ahura Mazda man
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,316

    A fair few PBers outing themselves as geeky anoraks this evening.

    Maybe I should stay on RF where the cool kids hang out?

    Or you could embrace your inner nerd :)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159

    Phil said:

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AlistairM said:

    That's a lot of money for a single plane. However, the An-225 was a real symbol of Ukraine's identity. It is clearly being done for the message that it sends.

    Ukraine has started construction of the second An-225 Mriya model aircraft. It will replace the legendary board, which was destroyed by the Russian invaders in Gostomel at the beginning of the invasion. According to the newspaper Bild, the new "Mriya" is already 30% ready.

    "The work is being done in a secret place. The second An-225 will be supplied with both new parts and parts of the damaged aircraft," said Yevhen Gavrilov, General Director of Antonov State Enterprise.

    The estimated cost of construction of the second "Mria" is 500 million euros.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1589699184734900224

    Half a billion Euros for a "model aircraft"!

    They're having a laugh.
    They have been looking at Games Workshop's pricing policy.
    Just received my copy of the newly published book on the origins of Games Worksop. Of particular interest to me as I worked for Citadel (the miniatures arm of GW) back in the early days before they moved everything to Nottingham and am still friends with most of the people mentioned in the book. It is an impressive success story to go from one small shop in London and a workshop in Newark to a multi-billion pound company.
    It's an amazing business. And unsung engineering heroes, too. I was an avid customer in the early days, and now, 40 years later, I'm sinking the GDP of a small country into minis since my nearly-9yo daughter discovered 40k for herself.
    For all that I have great admiration for GW, there is a vast world of alternatives out there if you find 40K stuff too expensive. Depending on where you live, come to one of our shows at Newark next year and you can get some insight into depth of the hobby.

    Also remember the legend is that you can't die until you paint your last mini. I have about 20,000 of them as insurance :smile:
    That is ... impressive.

    I painted a few minis back in my teenage years, back when everything was still cast in metal. Never made the shift to plastic.

    My collection of “White Dwarf” back issues is sadly lost to time & entropy however.
    My collection of White Dwarf back issues was thrown out by my parents while I was at uni.
    Ditto my Bond novels. My parents not yours in this case. I had every one in the pan original - a proper collection in impeccable condition that would be worth big bucks now. They disclaim knowingly getting rid of them and maybe that's true. Perhaps in the haste to transfer my room to my brother they just got permanently lost. It still gnaws at me. The not knowing is worse than the
    loss. No closure.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mermaids over-reach becoming painfully obvious as their case is eviscerated by the Charity Commission counsel

    Absolutely key points from counsel for the Charity Commission. The law absolutely does not require all charities to have one particular view of issues that are highly contentious within society, as Mermaids seems to believe. Mermaids' position is fundamentally anti-democratic.

    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1589634810942607360

    This is what happens when you only ever listen to people who agree with you…”No Debate” meets “the real world”.

    Seems like a very strange case. There must be lots of charities have views other charities think are deeply wrong. The argument about primary purpose and charitable benefit seems kind of weak.
    Even Stonewall had the wit not to get drawn into this. Arrogance borne of hubris. And people too frightened to speak out. Not any more.
    You might want to ask which minority is being eviscerated in this for little gain. Trans people have the most to fear from this witch hunt.
    Help me understand, are male-to-female trans witches or wizards?

    Always find an alterantive wording if you can: and Wiccan is helpfully ungendered.
    Wiccan is a twat religion invented in 1956 by a civil servant....just saying
    From an atheist point of view, ALL religions were invented at some point.
    Well over 80% of us globally are still religious and believe in a God (or Gods)
    ..and have left a tide of death, destruction and misery throughout history fighting over whether your flavour of invented God is any better than other people’s flavours.
    No we haven't, the 3 biggest mass murderers in history, Mao, Stalin and Hitler were all atheists or non religious.

    Many of our schools, universities, hospitals, great architecture in cathedrals, churches, mosques and synagogues and food banks and homeless shelters etc came from or are still provided today by religious bodies
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Exclusive

    A major UK-US energy deal is set to be struck, with billions of cubic metres of liquified gas imported into UK.

    An “energy security partnership”. Due after Cop27. Could ease winter supply fears. To be hailed as move away from Russian exports.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/07/rishi-sunak-strike-gas-deal-us-ease-energy-crisis/

    I’ve talked to half a dozen current and former UK government figures familiar with negotiations.

    Deal was so close to being done Downing St hoped to announce it in the week Liz Truss resigned.

    Truss and Biden personally discussed the deal (a sign of its perceived importance).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FT

    Chancellor lines up stealth raid on Inheritance tax

    Good for him

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1589725227424047104?t=LeDqrQpkubI2GS3a6sveeQ&s=19

    At a time when the Tories are still on under 30% and at least half of that 30% will be wealthy property owners and their heirs in the South, a risky strategy, certainly if not reversed before the next general election and with Reform already up to 5%.

    Though a temporary freeze in the threshold as with most taxes provided the threshold raised before the next election not too damaging
    It is not going to be reversed and the 4,000 plus members who have already joined ReformUK provides hope for one nation conservatives that the right and its ERG are heading hopefully the same way as the Corbynites
    They aren't, basically Sunak is Gordon Brown 2010 on current polls not Cameron 2010 or Blair 1997 and if he and Sunak lose the next general election they will get the blame. Expect the Conservatives to then swing heavily to the populist right in opposition under Badenoch, Braverman, Mogg etc as Labour swung to the populist left under Ed Miliband and Corbyn after Brown's defeat.

    None of that lot will be in the HOC if Sunak cannot turn things round thankfully
    Are you sure? Saffron Walden is safe for the Conservatives even on 25%, so that's Badenoch OK. Fareham + Waterlooville just flips on those numbers, but Hedge End is next door and a better Conservative prospect. That keeps Braverman in.

    I'd much rather see a return to One Nation Conservatism, but I suspect that, if the party loses in 2024, it will take the long way round, because that's what parties do these days.
    They seem to need a period of 'We were right all along, how dare the electorate reject us?' doubling down first.

    Though in fairness Labour extended there opposition period with a 'We did surprisingly well, one more heave!' getting carried away instead.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson continues his campaign to have the Lords abolished.

    Brilliant scoop by @lara_spirit

    The teenagers who (barely) ran No10 are now going to vote on legislation.

    And FOUR by-elections coming

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9feabd7c-5ede-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=54fb8195c88f326fc5a9b4530e3ffe51

    Right now we'd expect all four to be lost, but holding even one might even boost Sunak a little.

    Alister Jack - Dumfries and Galloway - Maj 1805 from SNP - not a hope
    Alok Sharma - Reading West - Maj 4117 from Lab - zero chance
    Nigel Adams (who?) Selby and Ainsty - Maj 20,137 from Lab - possibly
    Nadine Dorries - Mid Bedfordshire - Maj 24,664 from Lab - reasonable, but not likely with some of the big swings lately.
    Alister Jack could remain as Scottish Secretary as a peer, although Sunak may be glad of an excuse to replace him.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    mwadams said:

    Phil said:

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AlistairM said:

    That's a lot of money for a single plane. However, the An-225 was a real symbol of Ukraine's identity. It is clearly being done for the message that it sends.

    Ukraine has started construction of the second An-225 Mriya model aircraft. It will replace the legendary board, which was destroyed by the Russian invaders in Gostomel at the beginning of the invasion. According to the newspaper Bild, the new "Mriya" is already 30% ready.

    "The work is being done in a secret place. The second An-225 will be supplied with both new parts and parts of the damaged aircraft," said Yevhen Gavrilov, General Director of Antonov State Enterprise.

    The estimated cost of construction of the second "Mria" is 500 million euros.

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1589699184734900224

    Half a billion Euros for a "model aircraft"!

    They're having a laugh.
    They have been looking at Games Workshop's pricing policy.
    Just received my copy of the newly published book on the origins of Games Worksop. Of particular interest to me as I worked for Citadel (the miniatures arm of GW) back in the early days before they moved everything to Nottingham and am still friends with most of the people mentioned in the book. It is an impressive success story to go from one small shop in London and a workshop in Newark to a multi-billion pound company.
    It's an amazing business. And unsung engineering heroes, too. I was an avid customer in the early days, and now, 40 years later, I'm sinking the GDP of a small country into minis since my nearly-9yo daughter discovered 40k for herself.
    For all that I have great admiration for GW, there is a vast world of alternatives out there if you find 40K stuff too expensive. Depending on where you live, come to one of our shows at Newark next year and you can get some insight into depth of the hobby.

    Also remember the legend is that you can't die until you paint your last mini. I have about 20,000 of them as insurance :smile:
    That is ... impressive.

    I painted a few minis back in my teenage years, back when everything was still cast in metal. Never made the shift to plastic.

    My collection of “White Dwarf” back issues is sadly lost to time & entropy however.
    My collection of White Dwarf back issues was thrown out by my parents while I was at uni.
    I loved the early years when it used to cover more than just GW stuff but when it just became an in house magazine I lost interest.
    I always preferred the more niche games than the main collecting an army ones. Started off with Hero Quest and Space Crusade in the 80s, then Blood Bowl and Warhammer Quest in the 90s. Utterly loved Blood Bowl and at one stage I think I had just about every team available.

    This century I've sometimes collected miniatures, but its just for the hobby of painting them now not actually playing the games in person anymore.
    I started a narrative game with my daughter at the weekend. It's a lot of fun playing with her.

    I also like Blood Bowl - and we got Aeronautica last Xmas which is a great hex-based game (with tiny planes to paint)
    What I love about PB is how a post mentioning the creation of a new An-225 can easily segue onto Games Workshop, Warhammer 40K and Blood Bowl in the blink of an eye. It really is a giant smorgasbord of geeks of all different inclinations.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FT

    Chancellor lines up stealth raid on Inheritance tax

    Good for him

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1589725227424047104?t=LeDqrQpkubI2GS3a6sveeQ&s=19

    At a time when the Tories are still on under 30% and at least half of that 30% will be wealthy property owners and their heirs in the South, a risky strategy, certainly if not reversed before the next general election and with Reform already up to 5%.

    Though a temporary freeze in the threshold as with most taxes provided the threshold raised before the next election not too damaging
    It is not going to be reversed and the 4,000 plus members who have already joined ReformUK provides hope for one nation conservatives that the right and its ERG are heading hopefully the same way as the Corbynites
    They aren't, basically Sunak is Gordon Brown 2010 on current polls not Cameron 2010 or Blair 1997 and if he and Sunak lose the next general election they will get the blame. Expect the Conservatives to then swing heavily to the populist right in opposition under Badenoch, Braverman, Mogg etc as Labour swung to the populist left under Ed Miliband and Corbyn after Brown's defeat.

    None of that lot will be in the HOC if Sunak cannot turn things round thankfully
    Are you sure? Saffron Walden is safe for the Conservatives even on 25%, so that's Badenoch OK. Fareham + Waterlooville just flips on those numbers, but Hedge End is next door and a better Conservative prospect. That keeps Braverman in.

    I'd much rather see a return to One Nation Conservatism, but I suspect that, if the party loses in 2024, it will take the long way round, because that's what parties do these days.
    Indeed, it took 14 years after the centrist Callaghan lost for Labour to get to the centrist Blair, going through Foot, Kinnock and Smith in the process (though Smith not as left as the other 2).

    It took 8 years after centrist Major lost to get to centrist Cameron, during which the Tories were led by Hague, IDS and Howard.

    It took 13 years after centrist Blair went for Labour to elect more centrist Starmer, going through Brown, Ed Miliband and Corbyn in the process.

    If centrist Sunak and Hunt lose the next election the populist right will likely take control of the Conservative party for the next decade after
    Ed led as a centrist though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    edited November 2022
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FT

    Chancellor lines up stealth raid on Inheritance tax

    Good for him

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1589725227424047104?t=LeDqrQpkubI2GS3a6sveeQ&s=19

    At a time when the Tories are still on under 30% and at least half of that 30% will be wealthy property owners and their heirs in the South, a risky strategy, certainly if not reversed before the next general election and with Reform already up to 5%.

    Though a temporary freeze in the threshold as with most taxes provided the threshold raised before the next election not too damaging
    It is not going to be reversed and the 4,000 plus members who have already joined ReformUK provides hope for one nation conservatives that the right and its ERG are heading hopefully the same way as the Corbynites
    They aren't, basically Sunak is Gordon Brown 2010 on current polls not Cameron 2010 or Blair 1997 and if he and Sunak lose the next general election they will get the blame. Expect the Conservatives to then swing heavily to the populist right in opposition under Badenoch, Braverman, Mogg etc as Labour swung to the populist left under Ed Miliband and Corbyn after Brown's defeat.

    None of that lot will be in the HOC if Sunak cannot turn things round thankfully
    Are you sure? Saffron Walden is safe for the Conservatives even on 25%, so that's Badenoch OK. Fareham + Waterlooville just flips on those numbers, but Hedge End is next door and a better Conservative prospect. That keeps Braverman in.

    I'd much rather see a return to One Nation Conservatism, but I suspect that, if the party loses in 2024, it will take the long way round, because that's what parties do these days.
    Indeed, it took 14 years after the centrist Callaghan lost for Labour to get to the centrist Blair, going through Foot, Kinnock and Smith in the process (though Smith not as left as the other 2).

    It took 8 years after centrist Major lost to get to centrist Cameron, during which the Tories were led by Hague, IDS and Howard.

    It took 13 years after centrist Blair went for Labour to elect more centrist Starmer, going through Brown, Ed Miliband and Corbyn in the process.

    If centrist Sunak and Hunt lose the next election the populist right will likely take control of the Conservative party for the next decade after
    Ed led as a centrist though.
    He didn't, he pushed higher taxes on the rich, higher spending than the Coalition, and voted against action against Assad which even Obama wanted.

    David Miliband was the centrist in 2010 not Ed
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Wow, Macron and Sunak are really loved up.

    Tuesday's The Times - Welfare and pensions set to rise with inflation. @thetimes | #TomorrowsPapersToday | #FrontPages

    https://twitter.com/FirstEdition/status/1589745680243101697
This discussion has been closed.