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40m have ready voted in the MidTerms – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 15 in General
image40m have ready voted in the MidTerms – politicalbetting.com

All the signs are that tomorrow’s midterm elections in the US are going to see record turnouts for these elections when all the House seats will be fought over as well as 35 Senate ones. There are also hundreds of other contests including a large number of State Governors.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,065
    edited November 7
    First to vote.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,333
    I think that a proper recount will show that I was in fact first once the improper votes are discounted.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,333
    I don't think that there is any question that Ga is going to a recount but the question is will it matter? I think the republicans will take both Arizona and Nevada and only have a 50:50 chance of losing Penn giving the Republicans a majority.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,333
    In fairness losing 2-3 seats in the Senate and 20-30 in the House would make this one of the better midterm results for an incumbent for a while but the consequences in respect of Biden's Presidency are still dire.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,758
    Have we done this Twitter thread yet?

    https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1589594489739321344?s=20&t=HWIMxqSYZukCaxMbb7Z2OA

    Unfounded optimism for the Dems or a hint that things may be better for them than expected.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047
    I do so hope that overturning Rowe v Wade buggers things up for the Republicans.
  • I've got an alligator on my golf course.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,333
    TimS said:

    Have we done this Twitter thread yet?

    https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1589594489739321344?s=20&t=HWIMxqSYZukCaxMbb7Z2OA

    Unfounded optimism for the Dems or a hint that things may be better for them than expected.

    Probably more of the former. The piece I linked to yesterday in Politico showed that independent polls tended to favour Democrats by 2-4% because they find it difficult to pick up some of the GOP support in their polling (plus the usual problem of people who intend to vote Dem but never get around to it).

    The early voting effort is designed to address the latter but also seems to gut their vote on the day which is heavily republican.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,333

    I've got an alligator on my golf course.

    Serves you right for wasting your time on such a silly game.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,566
    edited November 7

    I've got an alligator on my golf course.

    Is that better or worse than an eagle? Birdie, Eagle, Abatross, Condor... Alligator?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903
    DavidL said:

    I think that a proper recount will show that I was in fact first once the improper votes are discounted.

    #StartTheSteal?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047

    I've got an alligator on my golf course.

    Impressive - if it is the municipal in Chester.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903

    I've got an alligator on my golf course.

    So playing golf on your course takes even more balls than usual?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,197

    I do so hope that overturning Rowe v Wade buggers things up for the Republicans.

    Doubt it, quite frankly.

    Definitely lost them some of the female vote though.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    ydoethur said:

    I've got an alligator on my golf course.

    So playing golf on your course takes even more balls than usual?
    Is he saying someone brought it in, or it just caiman sat there?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,952
    Whatever you score, we will score more....

    Brazil’s World Cup squad is ready. Nine forwards. Nine.

    https://twitter.com/MSavarese/status/1589653895202193408?s=20&t=w9PG6o2pGzSTdklC2b0s9w
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,197
    FPT @MoonRabbit

    I think what Sunak needs to be careful of is that he's not naïve about the many politicians, NGOs and activists that are advocating for climate reparations for whom saving the planet is a figleaf for their real objective of wealth redistribution.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,890
    Just catching up on the latest from the BBC.

    So Gavin Williamson has said he regrets it but hasn't apologised. And Sunak thinks what he did was unacceptable but still has confidence in him.

    All seems reasonable enough.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    46m
    To independent-minded voters:

    A commitment to truth, decency, and the rule of law curbs the worst excesses of partisan zealotry and demagoguery. Therefore I generally recommend voting for Democrats, given that today's GOP is not committed to truth, decency, and the rule of law.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,952

    Whatever you score, we will score more....

    Brazil’s World Cup squad is ready. Nine forwards. Nine.

    https://twitter.com/MSavarese/status/1589653895202193408?s=20&t=w9PG6o2pGzSTdklC2b0s9w

    I am reminded of Stuart Pearce, upon picking his first squad.

    He proudly showed it to his wife.

    "Hmmmm......" she deflated him. "Where's your goalie?"
    I think Brazil are going for rush goalie....jumpers for goal posts....we will win 11-10.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,771

    Whatever you score, we will score more....

    Brazil’s World Cup squad is ready. Nine forwards. Nine.

    https://twitter.com/MSavarese/status/1589653895202193408?s=20&t=w9PG6o2pGzSTdklC2b0s9w

    I was hoping Martinelli wouldn't be in the squad. Still, hopefully he just gets some warm weather training and doesn't get too much game time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047

    Whatever you score, we will score more....

    Brazil’s World Cup squad is ready. Nine forwards. Nine.

    https://twitter.com/MSavarese/status/1589653895202193408?s=20&t=w9PG6o2pGzSTdklC2b0s9w

    I am reminded of Stuart Pearce, upon picking his first squad.

    He proudly showed it to his wife.

    "Hmmmm......" she deflated him. "Where's your goalie?"
    I think Brazil are going for rush goalie....jumpers for goal posts....we will win 11-10.
    They will play until the guy whose ball it is is called in for tea by his mam....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,149
    edited November 7
    ydoethur said:

    I've got an alligator on my golf course.

    So playing golf on your course takes even more balls than usual?
    Effectively, yes. I presume it's what you call it when the ball goes into the burn and can't be fished out. Favourite of sadistic Scots course designers.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,952

    Whatever you score, we will score more....

    Brazil’s World Cup squad is ready. Nine forwards. Nine.

    https://twitter.com/MSavarese/status/1589653895202193408?s=20&t=w9PG6o2pGzSTdklC2b0s9w

    I am reminded of Stuart Pearce, upon picking his first squad.

    He proudly showed it to his wife.

    "Hmmmm......" she deflated him. "Where's your goalie?"
    I think Brazil are going for rush goalie....jumpers for goal posts....we will win 11-10.
    They will play until the guy whose ball it is is called in for tea by his mam....
    Where as England....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgaIw829Yxk
  • Whatever you score, we will score more....

    Brazil’s World Cup squad is ready. Nine forwards. Nine.

    https://twitter.com/MSavarese/status/1589653895202193408?s=20&t=w9PG6o2pGzSTdklC2b0s9w

    I am reminded of Stuart Pearce, upon picking his first squad.

    He proudly showed it to his wife.

    "Hmmmm......" she deflated him. "Where's your goalie?"
    I think Brazil are going for rush goalie....jumpers for goal posts....we will win 11-10.
    They will play until the guy whose ball it is is called in for tea by his mam....
    At which point it doesn't matter what the score is, its next goal wins.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,676
    Any ideas why Sunak was ushered out of the COP room so quickly?!

    (In Vegas so just catching up on the news - fascinating amount of political attack adverts on, with dems focusing on roe vs wade and republicans on “saving America”, whatever that means”)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,712

    I've got an alligator on my golf course.

    Is that a euphemism?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,484
    Not a fresh insight, but 'Take America Back' would be a mostly innocuous slogan were it not for the proven willingness to foster insurrectionist disorder in order to do the taking.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047

    Whatever you score, we will score more....

    Brazil’s World Cup squad is ready. Nine forwards. Nine.

    https://twitter.com/MSavarese/status/1589653895202193408?s=20&t=w9PG6o2pGzSTdklC2b0s9w

    I am reminded of Stuart Pearce, upon picking his first squad.

    He proudly showed it to his wife.

    "Hmmmm......" she deflated him. "Where's your goalie?"
    I think Brazil are going for rush goalie....jumpers for goal posts....we will win 11-10.
    They will play until the guy whose ball it is is called in for tea by his mam....
    At which point it doesn't matter what the score is, its next goal wins.
    Go on Qatar, fuck FIFA.....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    I presume Musk will be recommending that voters in Texas vote for the Dem candidate for Governor?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047

    I've got an alligator on my golf course.

    Is that a euphemism?
    Nah, deffo a reptile.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,250
    Trump, who has been encouraged to wait until after the midterms (and his daughter's upcoming wedding) to announce his 2024 run, is actively considering doing so during his Ohio rally tonight, several people say. But as Swan notes, whether he actually does is anyone's guess. https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1589647876149645312
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,484

    Whatever you score, we will score more....

    Brazil’s World Cup squad is ready. Nine forwards. Nine.

    https://twitter.com/MSavarese/status/1589653895202193408?s=20&t=w9PG6o2pGzSTdklC2b0s9w

    I am reminded of Stuart Pearce, upon picking his first squad.

    He proudly showed it to his wife.

    "Hmmmm......" she deflated him. "Where's your goalie?"
    I think Brazil are going for rush goalie....jumpers for goal posts....we will win 11-10.
    They will play until the guy whose ball it is is called in for tea by his mam....
    Where as England....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgaIw829Yxk
    Amazing how an ad campaign from bloody ages ago can stick with you. Feels as fresh in the mind as if it were yesterday.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,149
    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    I've got an alligator on my golf course.

    So playing golf on your course takes even more balls than usual?
    Is he saying someone brought it in, or it just caiman sat there?
    Unless it is a mugger from one of the grimmer housing estates nearby, of course.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903
    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    I've got an alligator on my golf course.

    So playing golf on your course takes even more balls than usual?
    Is he saying someone brought it in, or it just caiman sat there?
    Well, possibly, but it seems he just chose to monitor it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,250
    Isn't the more fundamental issue that the messages have been confirmed as genuine, the content of the messages is clear and the context of the messages is clear. So there's not really anything else that needs investigating. All that matters is do they warrant a sanction.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1589660311107555329
    https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1589644842694770689
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047
    Take America back. If you kept the receipt.....
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,649

    I've got an alligator on my golf course.

    Is that a euphemism?
    No, he's just snapped.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    I've got an alligator on my golf course.

    Is that a euphemism?
    Nah, deffo a reptile.
    An archosaur. Therefore the closest living relative of birds.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,484
    That's an awful lot of people living hand to mouth. I know several people in this situation, but horrifying if it is so widespread.

    A quarter of UK adults have less than £100 set aside in savings, a survey suggests, leaving them vulnerable to rising and unexpected bills.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63517823
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 643
    https://twitter.com/LeoHickman/status/1589645923591692288?s=20&t=5NQpVXTUttkJipXm5pITRg

    "UK prime minister @RishiSunak
    has just been rushed out of the room by his aides during the middle of the launch for forests partnership at #COP27"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903
    ohnotnow said:

    https://twitter.com/LeoHickman/status/1589645923591692288?s=20&t=5NQpVXTUttkJipXm5pITRg

    "UK prime minister @RishiSunak
    has just been rushed out of the room by his aides during the middle of the launch for forests partnership at #COP27"

    What has Sir Gavin done now?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,952
    kle4 said:

    Whatever you score, we will score more....

    Brazil’s World Cup squad is ready. Nine forwards. Nine.

    https://twitter.com/MSavarese/status/1589653895202193408?s=20&t=w9PG6o2pGzSTdklC2b0s9w

    I am reminded of Stuart Pearce, upon picking his first squad.

    He proudly showed it to his wife.

    "Hmmmm......" she deflated him. "Where's your goalie?"
    I think Brazil are going for rush goalie....jumpers for goal posts....we will win 11-10.
    They will play until the guy whose ball it is is called in for tea by his mam....
    Where as England....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgaIw829Yxk
    Amazing how an ad campaign from bloody ages ago can stick with you. Feels as fresh in the mind as if it were yesterday.
    They were genius set of ads. Top bombing, Not your Daddy, but I think, it isn't the cupboard monsters you have to worry about, its the burglars.....is my favourite.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,484
    ohnotnow said:

    https://twitter.com/LeoHickman/status/1589645923591692288?s=20&t=5NQpVXTUttkJipXm5pITRg

    "UK prime minister @RishiSunak
    has just been rushed out of the room by his aides during the middle of the launch for forests partnership at #COP27"

    Charles doing ok?
  • Take America back. If you kept the receipt.....

    On behalf of the UK can I say no thanks, happy to take back Australia and the rest of the Commonwealth but America seems more trouble than its worth.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    ohnotnow said:

    https://twitter.com/LeoHickman/status/1589645923591692288?s=20&t=5NQpVXTUttkJipXm5pITRg

    "UK prime minister @RishiSunak
    has just been rushed out of the room by his aides during the middle of the launch for forests partnership at #COP27"

    OMG last time this happened it was curtains for Queenie. KC in robust health I hope.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 9,987
    edited November 7
    kle4 said:

    ohnotnow said:

    https://twitter.com/LeoHickman/status/1589645923591692288?s=20&t=5NQpVXTUttkJipXm5pITRg

    "UK prime minister @RishiSunak
    has just been rushed out of the room by his aides during the middle of the launch for forests partnership at #COP27"

    Charles doing ok?
    We've had 4 Chancellors and 3 PMs this year, maybe the monarchy is trying to play catch up.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047
    ohnotnow said:

    https://twitter.com/LeoHickman/status/1589645923591692288?s=20&t=5NQpVXTUttkJipXm5pITRg

    "UK prime minister @RishiSunak
    has just been rushed out of the room by his aides during the middle of the launch for forests partnership at #COP27"

    NOW what has Liz Truss done?

    (Lent Ukraine a Trident sub as her last act as PM is my guess....)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,250
    Labour leads by 21%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (6 November):

    Labour 48% (+1)
    Conservative 27% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-2)
    Reform UK 5% (+1)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 2-3 November

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-6-november-2022 https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1589663977868595202/photo/1
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571

    FPT @MoonRabbit

    I think what Sunak needs to be careful of is that he's not naïve about the many politicians, NGOs and activists that are advocating for climate reparations for whom saving the planet is a figleaf for their real objective of wealth redistribution.

    I’m wary of this policy too, for much the same reason you suggested. But as someone said on the last thread, how much money commitment are we actually talking.

    Is your position “not a single penny?”
  • FPT @MoonRabbit

    I think what Sunak needs to be careful of is that he's not naïve about the many politicians, NGOs and activists that are advocating for climate reparations for whom saving the planet is a figleaf for their real objective of wealth redistribution.

    I’m wary of this policy too, for much the same reason you suggested. But as someone said on the last thread, how much money commitment are we actually talking.

    Is your position “not a single penny?”
    For "reparations"? Yes, not a single penny.

    For aid/development/encouraging clean technology take-up? That's a different matter.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,250
    NEW with @EllenAMilligan

    UK govt set to legislate to extend the deadline for calling an election in Northern Ireland

    — Announcement expected Weds
    — Vote could now be late Feb
    — Can kicked again as EU talks go on
    — Biden admin unhappy…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-07/uk-to-delay-northern-ireland-vote-hopes-to-get-eu-deal-first
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,484
    Scott_xP said:

    Trump, who has been encouraged to wait until after the midterms (and his daughter's upcoming wedding) to announce his 2024 run, is actively considering doing so during his Ohio rally tonight, several people say. But as Swan notes, whether he actually does is anyone's guess. https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1589647876149645312

    Doesn't really track for me. He'll claim credit for good results, and if they aren't so good he can declare and say he'll rescue them, since too many RINOs undermined them.

    What advantage declaring in advance (when everyone knows he intends to run)?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,484
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW with @EllenAMilligan

    UK govt set to legislate to extend the deadline for calling an election in Northern Ireland

    — Announcement expected Weds
    — Vote could now be late Feb
    — Can kicked again as EU talks go on
    — Biden admin unhappy…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-07/uk-to-delay-northern-ireland-vote-hopes-to-get-eu-deal-first

    I'm unhappy at the can being kicked too, but I can't see what the Biden administration would be getting their knickers in a twist about it for, an unhappy status quo is, well, the status quo.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_xP said:

    Labour leads by 21%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (6 November):

    Labour 48% (+1)
    Conservative 27% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-2)
    Reform UK 5% (+1)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 2-3 November

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-6-november-2022 https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1589663977868595202/photo/1

    Sleazy broken tories. End of bounce.

    EDF have just sent £66 to my bank account. I like cost of living crises.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    FPT @MoonRabbit

    I think what Sunak needs to be careful of is that he's not naïve about the many politicians, NGOs and activists that are advocating for climate reparations for whom saving the planet is a figleaf for their real objective of wealth redistribution.

    I’m wary of this policy too, for much the same reason you suggested. But as someone said on the last thread, how much money commitment are we actually talking.

    Is your position “not a single penny?”
    For "reparations"? Yes, not a single penny.

    For aid/development/encouraging clean technology take-up? That's a different matter.
    It's all dollars, however you label it. Perhaps reparations is a bad label.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour leads by 21%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (6 November):

    Labour 48% (+1)
    Conservative 27% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-2)
    Reform UK 5% (+1)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 2-3 November

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-6-november-2022 https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1589663977868595202/photo/1

    Sleazy broken tories. End of bounce.

    EDF have just sent £66 to my bank account. I like cost of living crises.
    How's the burner doing?

    Mine is still heating the house without the aid of any gas, although if I get through to next week with that still being the case I will be quite surprised.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,484
    edited November 7

    FPT @MoonRabbit

    I think what Sunak needs to be careful of is that he's not naïve about the many politicians, NGOs and activists that are advocating for climate reparations for whom saving the planet is a figleaf for their real objective of wealth redistribution.

    I’m wary of this policy too, for much the same reason you suggested. But as someone said on the last thread, how much money commitment are we actually talking.

    Is your position “not a single penny?”
    For "reparations"? Yes, not a single penny.

    For aid/development/encouraging clean technology take-up? That's a different matter.
    Framing matters. Even if it amounts to the same thing, as ismael_Z notes I think nations are more likely to be prompted into opening their wallets if it seems like they are undertaking charity (even if helps them too) than if it is a demand for reparations.

    The same pressures to not spend on things like aid will apply if it is called reparations, so it is not the case that framing it that way will make it more binding than relying on pressuring us to more generosity.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump, who has been encouraged to wait until after the midterms (and his daughter's upcoming wedding) to announce his 2024 run, is actively considering doing so during his Ohio rally tonight, several people say. But as Swan notes, whether he actually does is anyone's guess. https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1589647876149645312

    Doesn't really track for me. He'll claim credit for good results, and if they aren't so good he can declare and say he'll rescue them, since too many RINOs undermined them.

    What advantage declaring in advance (when everyone knows he intends to run)?
    Centre of attention.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    Take America back. If you kept the receipt.....

    On behalf of the UK can I say no thanks, happy to take back Australia and the rest of the Commonwealth but America seems more trouble than its worth.
    Could we have New Hampshire back but leave the rest?
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    FPT @MoonRabbit

    I think what Sunak needs to be careful of is that he's not naïve about the many politicians, NGOs and activists that are advocating for climate reparations for whom saving the planet is a figleaf for their real objective of wealth redistribution.

    I’m wary of this policy too, for much the same reason you suggested. But as someone said on the last thread, how much money commitment are we actually talking.

    Is your position “not a single penny?”
    For "reparations"? Yes, not a single penny.

    For aid/development/encouraging clean technology take-up? That's a different matter.
    It's all dollars, however you label it. Perhaps reparations is a bad label.
    A payment for services rendered, versus a payment for bribery, may both be dollars but are possible to view differently.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,484
    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump, who has been encouraged to wait until after the midterms (and his daughter's upcoming wedding) to announce his 2024 run, is actively considering doing so during his Ohio rally tonight, several people say. But as Swan notes, whether he actually does is anyone's guess. https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1589647876149645312

    Doesn't really track for me. He'll claim credit for good results, and if they aren't so good he can declare and say he'll rescue them, since too many RINOs undermined them.

    What advantage declaring in advance (when everyone knows he intends to run)?
    Centre of attention.
    He already is!
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 657
    DavidL said:

    I've got an alligator on my golf course.

    Serves you right for wasting your time on such a silly game.
    Maybe he's in de-Nile
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,286
    edited November 7
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW with @EllenAMilligan

    UK govt set to legislate to extend the deadline for calling an election in Northern Ireland

    — Announcement expected Weds
    — Vote could now be late Feb
    — Can kicked again as EU talks go on
    — Biden admin unhappy…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-07/uk-to-delay-northern-ireland-vote-hopes-to-get-eu-deal-first

    I'm unhappy at the can being kicked too, but I can't see what the Biden administration would be getting their knickers in a twist about it for, an unhappy status quo is, well, the status quo.
    England Bad.

    Seems to be his default position on anything to do with Ireland.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    Any ideas why Sunak was ushered out of the COP room so quickly?!

    (In Vegas so just catching up on the news - fascinating amount of political attack adverts on, with dems focusing on roe vs wade and republicans on “saving America”, whatever that means”)

    I flipped my VPN to New York and then watched the adds an YouTube, mostly political. I guess that there is so much money in some races that they are running out of TV spots!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660

    I do so hope that overturning Rowe v Wade buggers things up for the Republicans.

    If someone was to say "Alistair, what do you secretly in your heart of hearts want to happen but you know actually won't stop stop wishing you idiot" I would say "Kansas referendum result repeated across the country"

    Polling: 4pts in favour of the amendment
    Result: 19pts against the amendment.

    Vibes 100% did not pickup on that. Although voter registration statistics did.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,247
    Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak prefer to distance themselves from Trump and Bolsonaro’s refusal to recognise election results but they’re exactly the same when it comes to recognising the democratic rights of Scotland. @scottishlabour @scottories

    https://twitter.com/phantompower14/status/1589398488713990144?s=46&t=Pet7iz87sWoCGx0Z7c3bKw
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,365
    Driver said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW with @EllenAMilligan

    UK govt set to legislate to extend the deadline for calling an election in Northern Ireland

    — Announcement expected Weds
    — Vote could now be late Feb
    — Can kicked again as EU talks go on
    — Biden admin unhappy…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-07/uk-to-delay-northern-ireland-vote-hopes-to-get-eu-deal-first

    I'm unhappy at the can being kicked too, but I can't see what the Biden administration would be getting their knickers in a twist about it for, an unhappy status quo is, well, the status quo.
    England Bad.

    Seems to be his default position on anything to do with Ireland.
    Glad you're coming round to that framing!
  • Scott_xP said:

    NEW with @EllenAMilligan

    UK govt set to legislate to extend the deadline for calling an election in Northern Ireland

    — Announcement expected Weds
    — Vote could now be late Feb
    — Can kicked again as EU talks go on
    — Biden admin unhappy…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-07/uk-to-delay-northern-ireland-vote-hopes-to-get-eu-deal-first

    With the greatest of respect this is a matter for the UK and EU to resolve and good talks are continuing

    I would have thought he has far more to worry about with the rise of Trump
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 895
    The Washington Post is running a contest: "In a very-extra-special edition of the Post Pundit Power Ranking, we want you, the readers, to play pundit and tell us who you predict to win this cycle’s biggest midterm battles.

    Senate races? Got ’em. Governorships? They’re here. House control? Duh!

    For each contest below, click on the candidate you think will be victorious. Once you choose, you’ll also see who other readers and our political columnists think will win, and why. After Election Day, we’ll grade your ballots … and then show you how many pundits you beat! All right — here’s your first one:"
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2022/midterms-predictions-quiz-power-rankings/

    Enering the contest could, possibly. help some here decide on bets.

    (No,I haven't entered, though I may.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,262
    For the GOP to only be 1% ahead in the midterms does not really suggest a red wave, even if they gain control. in 1994 by contrast the Gingrich led GOP won the popular vote in the House by nearly 7% in Clinton's first midterms, in 2010 the GOP led by about 6% and in 2018 Pelosi's Democrats led by 8% when they regained the House in Trump's midterms
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,484
    edited November 7

    Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak prefer to distance themselves from Trump and Bolsonaro’s refusal to recognise election results but they’re exactly the same when it comes to recognising the democratic rights of Scotland. @scottishlabour @scottories

    https://twitter.com/phantompower14/status/1589398488713990144?s=46&t=Pet7iz87sWoCGx0Z7c3bKw

    I think a referendum should happen given the electoral results in Scotland and the wishes of its democratic representatives, but I don't think it is quite the same thing. One is ignoring/contesting the legal outcome long after any challenge has been shown to be nonsense, the other is ignoring the moral case for a policy arising from an electoral win.

    It's a messy, probably counter productive stance, but it isn't ignoring the result, but choosing not to enact a policy following that result, and they aren't required to do so.

    It might be equally outrageous, but it isn't the same.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,286
    .

    Driver said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW with @EllenAMilligan

    UK govt set to legislate to extend the deadline for calling an election in Northern Ireland

    — Announcement expected Weds
    — Vote could now be late Feb
    — Can kicked again as EU talks go on
    — Biden admin unhappy…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-07/uk-to-delay-northern-ireland-vote-hopes-to-get-eu-deal-first

    I'm unhappy at the can being kicked too, but I can't see what the Biden administration would be getting their knickers in a twist about it for, an unhappy status quo is, well, the status quo.
    England Bad.

    Seems to be his default position on anything to do with Ireland.
    Glad you're coming round to that framing!
    Obviously, both parts of it are nonsense, because he's a senile old fool...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,262

    Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak prefer to distance themselves from Trump and Bolsonaro’s refusal to recognise election results but they’re exactly the same when it comes to recognising the democratic rights of Scotland. @scottishlabour @scottories

    https://twitter.com/phantompower14/status/1589398488713990144?s=46&t=Pet7iz87sWoCGx0Z7c3bKw

    Scotland is a part of the UK, Scots voted 55% to stay in the UK in the once in a generation 2014 vote and the SNP never accepted that result either
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,160
    Mermaids over-reach becoming painfully obvious as their case is eviscerated by the Charity Commission counsel

    Absolutely key points from counsel for the Charity Commission. The law absolutely does not require all charities to have one particular view of issues that are highly contentious within society, as Mermaids seems to believe. Mermaids' position is fundamentally anti-democratic.

    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1589634810942607360

    This is what happens when you only ever listen to people who agree with you…”No Debate” meets “the real world”.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FPT @MoonRabbit

    I think what Sunak needs to be careful of is that he's not naïve about the many politicians, NGOs and activists that are advocating for climate reparations for whom saving the planet is a figleaf for their real objective of wealth redistribution.

    I’m wary of this policy too, for much the same reason you suggested. But as someone said on the last thread, how much money commitment are we actually talking.

    Is your position “not a single penny?”
    For "reparations"? Yes, not a single penny.

    For aid/development/encouraging clean technology take-up? That's a different matter.
    It's all dollars, however you label it. Perhaps reparations is a bad label.
    A payment for services rendered, versus a payment for bribery, may both be dollars but are possible to view differently.
    So where an island home sinks, not because anything they done, but what North Hemisphere done, we don’t owe them a “sorry?”

    Or don’t you agree with the premise of my question, we are actually in a no fault at all position?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,250
    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead is eighteen points in latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 29% (+3)
    Lab 47% (-4)
    Lib Dem 9% (-)
    Other 16% (+1)
    Fieldwork: 4th - 7th November 2022
    Sample: 1,049 GB adults
    (Changes from 28 - 31 October 2022) https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1589670041423056897/photo/1
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,309
    Scott_xP said:

    Labour leads by 21%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (6 November):

    Labour 48% (+1)
    Conservative 27% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-2)
    Reform UK 5% (+1)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 2-3 November

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-6-november-2022 https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1589663977868595202/photo/1

    That’s slightly unexpected, as actually shows an increasing Labour lead. There was another of these yesterday, which I assumed was an outlier.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903
    edited November 7
    kle4 said:

    Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak prefer to distance themselves from Trump and Bolsonaro’s refusal to recognise election results but they’re exactly the same when it comes to recognising the democratic rights of Scotland. @scottishlabour @scottories

    https://twitter.com/phantompower14/status/1589398488713990144?s=46&t=Pet7iz87sWoCGx0Z7c3bKw

    I think a referendum should happen given the electoral results in Scotland and the wishes of its democratic representatives, but I don't think it is quite the same thing. One is ignoring/contesting the legal outcome long after any challenge has been shown to be nonsense, the other is ignoring the moral case for a policy arising from an electoral win.

    It's a messy, probably counter productive stance, but it isn't ignoring the result, but choosing not to enact a policy following that result, and they aren't required to do so.

    It might be equally outrageous, but it isn't the same.
    In fact, arguably as it's the SNP who are (as they have been pretty much since day 1) refusing to accept the result of a valid referendum they are therefore behaving like Trump and Bolsonaro...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,484

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour leads by 21%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (6 November):

    Labour 48% (+1)
    Conservative 27% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-2)
    Reform UK 5% (+1)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 2-3 November

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-6-november-2022 https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1589663977868595202/photo/1

    That’s slightly unexpected, as actually shows an increasing Labour lead. There was another of these yesterday, which I assumed was an outlier.
    15-20 lead stabilising?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    That's an awful lot of people living hand to mouth. I know several people in this situation, but horrifying if it is so widespread.

    A quarter of UK adults have less than £100 set aside in savings, a survey suggests, leaving them vulnerable to rising and unexpected bills.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63517823

    It's ok though because the government has apparently promised to make good any unexpected shortfalls for anything ever.
    No sign of them making good the shortfalls of intelligence and common sense among our governing classes, alas.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,046
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak prefer to distance themselves from Trump and Bolsonaro’s refusal to recognise election results but they’re exactly the same when it comes to recognising the democratic rights of Scotland. @scottishlabour @scottories

    https://twitter.com/phantompower14/status/1589398488713990144?s=46&t=Pet7iz87sWoCGx0Z7c3bKw

    I think a referendum should happen given the electoral results in Scotland and the wishes of its democratic representatives, but I don't think it is quite the same thing. One is ignoring/contesting the legal outcome long after any challenge has been shown to be nonsense, the other is ignoring the moral case for a policy arising from an electoral win.

    It's a messy, probably counter productive stance, but it isn't ignoring the result, but choosing not to enact a policy following that result, and they aren't required to do so.

    It might be equally outrageous, but it isn't the same.
    In fact, arguably as it's the SNP who are (as they have been pretty much since day 1) refusing to accept the result of a valid referendum they are therefore behaving like Trump and Bolsonaro...
    They appear to have accepted the result, considering they aren't acting like a sovereign government or seeking international support to remove occupiers forcibly.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,228

    Mermaids over-reach becoming painfully obvious as their case is eviscerated by the Charity Commission counsel

    Absolutely key points from counsel for the Charity Commission. The law absolutely does not require all charities to have one particular view of issues that are highly contentious within society, as Mermaids seems to believe. Mermaids' position is fundamentally anti-democratic.

    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1589634810942607360

    This is what happens when you only ever listen to people who agree with you…”No Debate” meets “the real world”.

    The problem is that these people will use our apathy against us and end up in power so the "real world" reflects their views, not ours. Once these kinds of activist get in power the only way to get rid of them will involve ropes and lamp posts.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,771
    edited November 7

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FPT @MoonRabbit

    I think what Sunak needs to be careful of is that he's not naïve about the many politicians, NGOs and activists that are advocating for climate reparations for whom saving the planet is a figleaf for their real objective of wealth redistribution.

    I’m wary of this policy too, for much the same reason you suggested. But as someone said on the last thread, how much money commitment are we actually talking.

    Is your position “not a single penny?”
    For "reparations"? Yes, not a single penny.

    For aid/development/encouraging clean technology take-up? That's a different matter.
    It's all dollars, however you label it. Perhaps reparations is a bad label.
    A payment for services rendered, versus a payment for bribery, may both be dollars but are possible to view differently.
    So where an island home sinks, not because anything they done, but what North Hemisphere done, we don’t owe them a “sorry?”

    Or don’t you agree with the premise of my question, we are actually in a no fault at all position?
    Coral islands are not sinking because of sea level change.

    They are sinking because they were built on and the natural process of regeneration has been stopped.

    The Bahamas are coral islands which have survived an astonishing 4000m of local sea level change over millions and millions of years, including multiple glaciations and a period much warmer than today.

    In the more recent past, it was only 10,000 years ago that Doggerland disappeared as the ice sheets melted.

    The same Pacific coral islands survived that fine.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    Scott_xP said:

    Labour leads by 21%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (6 November):

    Labour 48% (+1)
    Conservative 27% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-2)
    Reform UK 5% (+1)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 2-3 November

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-6-november-2022 https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1589663977868595202/photo/1

    I was wrong, and I am surprised I was. In Redfield v Opinium I had latter as the outlier. But let’s wait for Techne and Kantor before calling honeymoon over and Torys in deep trouble. There may still be some 30’s in next couple of weeks to drag the average of polls up.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,160
    edited November 7
    Number of times these words appear in the @scottishgreens paper on independence:

    border = 0
    currency = 0
    exports = 0
    imports = 0
    growth = 0
    carbon = 0
    emissions = 0
    electricity = 0
    net-zero = 0
    imagine = 4


    https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1589633583442186240

    It does mention both “gender” and “Tory” twice…
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,541
    edited November 7
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    That's an awful lot of people living hand to mouth. I know several people in this situation, but horrifying if it is so widespread.

    A quarter of UK adults have less than £100 set aside in savings, a survey suggests, leaving them vulnerable to rising and unexpected bills.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63517823

    It's ok though because the government has apparently promised to make good any unexpected shortfalls for anything ever.
    I take your point, but it is worth considering the possibility that 25% of the population have no savings because their income gives them no possibility of saving anything in the face of rising food and other bill prices. I also suspect that many of these households not only have no savings but have considerable debts that they are struggling to pay.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,541
    Scott_xP said:

    Isn't the more fundamental issue that the messages have been confirmed as genuine, the content of the messages is clear and the context of the messages is clear. So there's not really anything else that needs investigating. All that matters is do they warrant a sanction.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1589660311107555329
    https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1589644842694770689

    As anybody who has read the text exchanges knows, Williamson is an unpleasant bully who threatened Morton, without any justification or provocation. No investigation is needed. Sunak's response is poor.

    I am curious, though, as to who leaked the texts to the press. They certainly intended to do for Williamson.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,484
    edited November 7

    Mermaids over-reach becoming painfully obvious as their case is eviscerated by the Charity Commission counsel

    Absolutely key points from counsel for the Charity Commission. The law absolutely does not require all charities to have one particular view of issues that are highly contentious within society, as Mermaids seems to believe. Mermaids' position is fundamentally anti-democratic.

    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1589634810942607360

    This is what happens when you only ever listen to people who agree with you…”No Debate” meets “the real world”.

    Seems like a very strange case. There must be lots of charities have views other charities think are deeply wrong. The argument about primary purpose and charitable benefit seems kind of weak.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,485
    DavidL said:

    I don't think that there is any question that Ga is going to a recount but the question is will it matter? I think the republicans will take both Arizona and Nevada and only have a 50:50 chance of losing Penn giving the Republicans a majority.

    I think the Dems gain PA because the Republicans have a Mastriano drag that should not be underestimated.

    I think the Republicans gain NV, probably fairly comfortably.

    I think GA is going to a run-off, which could be very interesting.

    And I think the Republicans should be favourites in AZ, but not massive ones.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,301
    edited November 7
    HYUFD said:

    Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak prefer to distance themselves from Trump and Bolsonaro’s refusal to recognise election results but they’re exactly the same when it comes to recognising the democratic rights of Scotland. @scottishlabour @scottories

    https://twitter.com/phantompower14/status/1589398488713990144?s=46&t=Pet7iz87sWoCGx0Z7c3bKw

    Scotland is a part of the UK, Scots voted 55% to stay in the UK in the once in a generation 2014 vote and the SNP never accepted that result either
    If we assume that the original Star Trek ended in 1969 and the Next Generation first aired in 1987, then there are 18 years in a generation, and the next earliest date for a Scottish referendum should therefore be 2032.

    However, if we look at the stardates, the original Star Trek was set in 2266, while The Next Generation was set in 2364. This therefore assumes an interval of 98 years between generations, and therefore the next Scottish referendum should be held in 2112.

    However, whichever generational measure we prefer, the referendum campaign should be led by a bald Frenchman with a polished English accent.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,160
    MaxPB said:

    Mermaids over-reach becoming painfully obvious as their case is eviscerated by the Charity Commission counsel

    Absolutely key points from counsel for the Charity Commission. The law absolutely does not require all charities to have one particular view of issues that are highly contentious within society, as Mermaids seems to believe. Mermaids' position is fundamentally anti-democratic.

    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1589634810942607360

    This is what happens when you only ever listen to people who agree with you…”No Debate” meets “the real world”.

    The problem is that these people will use our apathy against us and end up in power so the "real world" reflects their views, not ours. Once these kinds of activist get in power the only way to get rid of them will involve ropes and lamp posts.
    Or in this case angry middle aged lesbians….
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903
    EPG said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak prefer to distance themselves from Trump and Bolsonaro’s refusal to recognise election results but they’re exactly the same when it comes to recognising the democratic rights of Scotland. @scottishlabour @scottories

    https://twitter.com/phantompower14/status/1589398488713990144?s=46&t=Pet7iz87sWoCGx0Z7c3bKw

    I think a referendum should happen given the electoral results in Scotland and the wishes of its democratic representatives, but I don't think it is quite the same thing. One is ignoring/contesting the legal outcome long after any challenge has been shown to be nonsense, the other is ignoring the moral case for a policy arising from an electoral win.

    It's a messy, probably counter productive stance, but it isn't ignoring the result, but choosing not to enact a policy following that result, and they aren't required to do so.

    It might be equally outrageous, but it isn't the same.
    In fact, arguably as it's the SNP who are (as they have been pretty much since day 1) refusing to accept the result of a valid referendum they are therefore behaving like Trump and Bolsonaro...
    They appear to have accepted the result, considering they aren't acting like a sovereign government or seeking international support to remove occupiers forcibly.
    You mean, apart from demanding a rerun, claiming the original vote was tainted, and making potentially illegal moves to overturn the result?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,250

    I am curious, though, as to who leaked the texts to the press. They certainly intended to do for Williamson.

    The people gunning for GW are in fact gunning for Rishi. They include the same people gunning for Suella. They have their reasons. Some may think they’re being honourable. But we can be clear about what’s going on.

    Rishi presumably appointed GW because he values the political skills he brings to the table. He shouldn’t buckle just because it’s this week’s story to try to get Williamson fired.


    https://twitter.com/NJ_Timothy/status/1589640008503205889
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,250
    Rishi Sunak's approval rating is +8%.

    Rishi Sunak Approval Rating (6 November):

    Approve: 32% (-1)
    Disapprove: 24% (+4)
    Net: +8% (-5)

    Changes +/- 2-3 November

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-6-november-2022 https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1589674088221614080/photo/1
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,160
    kle4 said:

    Mermaids over-reach becoming painfully obvious as their case is eviscerated by the Charity Commission counsel

    Absolutely key points from counsel for the Charity Commission. The law absolutely does not require all charities to have one particular view of issues that are highly contentious within society, as Mermaids seems to believe. Mermaids' position is fundamentally anti-democratic.

    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1589634810942607360

    This is what happens when you only ever listen to people who agree with you…”No Debate” meets “the real world”.

    Seems like a very strange case. There must be lots of charities have views other charities think are deeply wrong. The argument about primary purpose and charitable benefit seems kind of weak.
    Even Stonewall had the wit not to get drawn into this. Arrogance borne of hubris. And people too frightened to speak out. Not any more.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    I don't think that there is any question that Ga is going to a recount but the question is will it matter? I think the republicans will take both Arizona and Nevada and only have a 50:50 chance of losing Penn giving the Republicans a majority.

    I think the Dems gain PA because the Republicans have a Mastriano drag that should not be underestimated.

    I think the Republicans gain NV, probably fairly comfortably.

    I think GA is going to a run-off, which could be very interesting.

    And I think the Republicans should be favourites in AZ, but not massive ones.
    In Arizona I thought the GOPs strategy of not pick Martha McSally was a masterstroke until I saw Blake Masters
This discussion has been closed.