A Scottish national anthem should set words by Burns, I am sure they will find something good.
As for England, well I am happy enough with Jerusalem, but what else? "I vow to thee my country" (perhaps jingoistic like "Land of Hope and Glory:) suffers from the fact that second verse is never remembered (or is regarded as too religious).
Shakespeare? A setting of "This royal throne of kings", perhaps not.
"The Rain It Raineth Every Day." might be the one.
Burns possibilities
Twa wives:
"There was twa wives, and twa witty wives, As e'er play'd houghmagandie, And they coost oot, upon a time, Out o'er a drink o brandy; Up Maggie rose, and forth she goes, An she leaves auld Mary flytin, And she farted by the byre-en' For she was gaun a shiten.
She farted by the byre-en', She farted by the stable; And thick and nimble were her steps As fast as she was able: Till at yon dyke-back the hurly brak, But raxin for some dockins, The beans and pease cam down her thighs, And she cackit a' her stockins."
Johnie Lad, cock up your beaver:
"When first my brave Johnie lad came to this town, He had a blue bonnet that wanted the crown; But now he has gotten a hat and a feather, Hey, brave Johnie lad, cock up your beaver! Cock up your beaver, and cock it fu' sprush, We'll over the border, and gie them a brush; There's somebody there we'll teach better behaviour, Hey, brave Johnie lad, cock up your beaver!"
Take your choice.
The first is both moving and uplifting. A good choice for a national anthem.
Opinium is out, labour increase lead to 18 (46 28), taking 2 from the LDs otherwise unchanged but Starmer back in the lead by 3 30 27 as best PM...........
That's a solid 15% swing from Conservative to Labour.
Add in the tactical voting swing and you get a Labour majority of over 200 with the Conservatives losing more than two thirds of their seats so not an extinction event but worse than 1997.
Yes so it depends whether we see swingback towards more normal pastures
Opinium is out, labour increase lead to 18 (46 28), taking 2 from the LDs otherwise unchanged but Starmer back in the lead by 3 30 27 as best PM...........
To be clear: it does not appear the $8/month blue checkmark actually grants you a blue checkmark. The feature is not working. The one specific feature that he had to get right https://twitter.com/edzitron/status/1588980881204838401
A Scottish national anthem should set words by Burns, I am sure they will find something good.
As for England, well I am happy enough with Jerusalem, but what else? "I vow to thee my country" (perhaps jingoistic like "Land of Hope and Glory:) suffers from the fact that second verse is never remembered (or is regarded as too religious).
Shakespeare? A setting of "This royal throne of kings", perhaps not.
"The Rain It Raineth Every Day." might be the one.
Burns possibilities
Twa wives:
"There was twa wives, and twa witty wives, As e'er play'd houghmagandie, And they coost oot, upon a time, Out o'er a drink o brandy; Up Maggie rose, and forth she goes, An she leaves auld Mary flytin, And she farted by the byre-en' For she was gaun a shiten.
She farted by the byre-en', She farted by the stable; And thick and nimble were her steps As fast as she was able: Till at yon dyke-back the hurly brak, But raxin for some dockins, The beans and pease cam down her thighs, And she cackit a' her stockins."
Johnie Lad, cock up your beaver:
"When first my brave Johnie lad came to this town, He had a blue bonnet that wanted the crown; But now he has gotten a hat and a feather, Hey, brave Johnie lad, cock up your beaver! Cock up your beaver, and cock it fu' sprush, We'll over the border, and gie them a brush; There's somebody there we'll teach better behaviour, Hey, brave Johnie lad, cock up your beaver!"
Take your choice.
The first is both moving and uplifting. A good choice for a national anthem.
Opinium is out, labour increase lead to 18 (46 28), taking 2 from the LDs otherwise unchanged but Starmer back in the lead by 3 30 27 as best PM...........
Migrants are shoring up the tory core vote
So they are integrating better than we realise?
Getting on the electoral register is their very first move after landing.
A Scottish national anthem should set words by Burns, I am sure they will find something good.
As for England, well I am happy enough with Jerusalem, but what else? "I vow to thee my country" (perhaps jingoistic like "Land of Hope and Glory:) suffers from the fact that second verse is never remembered (or is regarded as too religious).
Shakespeare? A setting of "This royal throne of kings", perhaps not.
"The Rain It Raineth Every Day." might be the one.
Burns possibilities
Twa wives:
"There was twa wives, and twa witty wives, As e'er play'd houghmagandie, And they coost oot, upon a time, Out o'er a drink o brandy; Up Maggie rose, and forth she goes, An she leaves auld Mary flytin, And she farted by the byre-en' For she was gaun a shiten.
She farted by the byre-en', She farted by the stable; And thick and nimble were her steps As fast as she was able: Till at yon dyke-back the hurly brak, But raxin for some dockins, The beans and pease cam down her thighs, And she cackit a' her stockins."
Johnie Lad, cock up your beaver:
"When first my brave Johnie lad came to this town, He had a blue bonnet that wanted the crown; But now he has gotten a hat and a feather, Hey, brave Johnie lad, cock up your beaver! Cock up your beaver, and cock it fu' sprush, We'll over the border, and gie them a brush; There's somebody there we'll teach better behaviour, Hey, brave Johnie lad, cock up your beaver!"
Take your choice.
The first is both moving and uplifting. A good choice for a national anthem.
It's worth reading the text exchanges in that thread. They show that Williamson is indeed an obnoxious, unpleasant little man who has become abusive because he couldn't go the the Queen's funeral. A complete tosser. Pity Sunak doesn't think the same.
Opinium is out, labour increase lead to 18 (46 28), taking 2 from the LDs otherwise unchanged but Starmer back in the lead by 3 30 27 as best PM...........
That's a solid 15% swing from Conservative to Labour.
Add in the tactical voting swing and you get a Labour majority of over 200 with the Conservatives losing more than two thirds of their seats so not an extinction event but worse than 1997.
Yes so it depends whether we see swingback towards more normal pastures
Nice try but Techne and Osmosis not a million miles away from Opinium suggesting Labour are around or just below 50, the Conservatives around or just below 30 and the Liberal Democrats are around or just below 10.
The R&W "Blue Wall" poll confirmed the willingness of large numbers of Labour and LD voters to vote tactically to unseat a sitting Conservative so the base line numbers don't reflect the degree of anti-Conservative sentiment out there at the moment.
A Scottish national anthem should set words by Burns, I am sure they will find something good.
As for England, well I am happy enough with Jerusalem, but what else? "I vow to thee my country" (perhaps jingoistic like "Land of Hope and Glory:) suffers from the fact that second verse is never remembered (or is regarded as too religious).
Shakespeare? A setting of "This royal throne of kings", perhaps not.
"The Rain It Raineth Every Day." might be the one.
This reminds me of - imho - the most beautiful Shakespeare-set-to-music that I've seen in the cinema (sadly low quality 4:3 grab) of "Prosperos Books" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JMP3Li57no
Opinium is out, labour increase lead to 18 (46 28), taking 2 from the LDs otherwise unchanged but Starmer back in the lead by 3 30 27 as best PM...........
That's a solid 15% swing from Conservative to Labour.
Add in the tactical voting swing and you get a Labour majority of over 200 with the Conservatives losing more than two thirds of their seats so not an extinction event but worse than 1997.
Yes so it depends whether we see swingback towards more normal pastures
Nice try but Techne and Osmosis not a million miles away from Opinium suggesting Labour are around or just below 50, the Conservatives around or just below 30 and the Liberal Democrats are around or just below 10.
The R&W "Blue Wall" poll confirmed the willingness of large numbers of Labour and LD voters to vote tactically to unseat a sitting Conservative so the base line numbers don't reflect the degree of anti-Conservative sentiment out there at the moment.
Im not sure what i'm 'trying'? The election is 18 months away, if things stay as they are then the result will be a large Lab majority/landslide, if there is swingback as has often, but not always happened then it will be closer but probably a Lab majority of 'normal' size.
New @OpiniumResearch finds over two fifths (45%) of people disapprove of the way Suella Braverman is handling her job as Home Sec with over half (52%) stating her re-appointment was a bad decision.
Immigration soaring up list of priorities - 73% say UK not in control of borders.
New @OpiniumResearch finds over two fifths (45%) of people disapprove of the way Suella Braverman is handling her job as Home Sec with over half (52%) stating her re-appointment was a bad decision.
Immigration soaring up list of priorities - 73% say UK not in control of borders.
Thats the power of the media for you...but most people dont realise illegal immigration is a drop in the ocean compared to legal immigration...average gammon says im fine if they come in legally...well most immigrants are legal you idiot and you still complain about them
Opinium is out, labour increase lead to 18 (46 28), taking 2 from the LDs otherwise unchanged but Starmer back in the lead by 3 30 27 as best PM...........
That's a solid 15% swing from Conservative to Labour.
Add in the tactical voting swing and you get a Labour majority of over 200 with the Conservatives losing more than two thirds of their seats so not an extinction event but worse than 1997.
Yes so it depends whether we see swingback towards more normal pastures
Nice try but Techne and Osmosis not a million miles away from Opinium suggesting Labour are around or just below 50, the Conservatives around or just below 30 and the Liberal Democrats are around or just below 10.
The R&W "Blue Wall" poll confirmed the willingness of large numbers of Labour and LD voters to vote tactically to unseat a sitting Conservative so the base line numbers don't reflect the degree of anti-Conservative sentiment out there at the moment.
Im not sure what i'm 'trying'? The election is 18 months away, if things stay as they are then the result will be a large Lab majority/landslide, if there is swingback as has often, but not always happened then it will be closer but probably a Lab majority of 'normal' size.
It seems to me that Sunak is an John Major ‘97 situation - he could win, but not with the Conservative Party he has behind him.
My main surprise is that he took the gig. Ok, become PM, but the inevitable hammering which will also end his career in politics?
Odd that the swingback Opinium comes in lower than Redfield.
I would have guessed a 31 or 32, so would have been wrong.
If we reverse to June/July, Opinium was finding smaller leads mainly due to a lower labour % but the Tory share was sometimes lower than Redfields etc, so its not unusual, you need another opinium to see if the share has indeed stalled or if last weeks plus 6 was an 'overbounce' It looks however for now as if 30 is very much upper end, its 27 to 30 with PP and YouGov going lower
Opinium is out, labour increase lead to 18 (46 28), taking 2 from the LDs otherwise unchanged but Starmer back in the lead by 3 30 27 as best PM...........
That's a solid 15% swing from Conservative to Labour.
Add in the tactical voting swing and you get a Labour majority of over 200 with the Conservatives losing more than two thirds of their seats so not an extinction event but worse than 1997.
Yes so it depends whether we see swingback towards more normal pastures
Nice try but Techne and Osmosis not a million miles away from Opinium suggesting Labour are around or just below 50, the Conservatives around or just below 30 and the Liberal Democrats are around or just below 10.
The R&W "Blue Wall" poll confirmed the willingness of large numbers of Labour and LD voters to vote tactically to unseat a sitting Conservative so the base line numbers don't reflect the degree of anti-Conservative sentiment out there at the moment.
Im not sure what i'm 'trying'? The election is 18 months away, if things stay as they are then the result will be a large Lab majority/landslide, if there is swingback as has often, but not always happened then it will be closer but probably a Lab majority of 'normal' size.
It seems to me that Sunak is an John Major ‘97 situation - he could win, but not with the Conservative Party he has behind him.
My main surprise is that he took the gig. Ok, become PM, but the inevitable hammering which will also end his career in politics?
His best bet imo is to try and claw his way to 35% at a GE and restrict Labour to a strong minority or small majority. I dont see any better than that possible unless Labour implode somehow
Opinium is out, labour increase lead to 18 (46 28), taking 2 from the LDs otherwise unchanged but Starmer back in the lead by 3 30 27 as best PM...........
That's a solid 15% swing from Conservative to Labour.
Add in the tactical voting swing and you get a Labour majority of over 200 with the Conservatives losing more than two thirds of their seats so not an extinction event but worse than 1997.
Yes so it depends whether we see swingback towards more normal pastures
Nice try but Techne and Osmosis not a million miles away from Opinium suggesting Labour are around or just below 50, the Conservatives around or just below 30 and the Liberal Democrats are around or just below 10.
The R&W "Blue Wall" poll confirmed the willingness of large numbers of Labour and LD voters to vote tactically to unseat a sitting Conservative so the base line numbers don't reflect the degree of anti-Conservative sentiment out there at the moment.
I disagree - the actual unadjusted figure Opinium must have polled would be 2-3 below how they then swung it back, which points to the 29 and 30 corroborate each other whilst Opinium finding just 25 or 26 support as the outlier. Too low by 4-5. The Opinium is older than the osmosis which found 27.
It doesn’t matter in two weeks time as a fresh survey negates any mistake Opinium has made here that should show a more eye catching correction.
I’m calling it an Opinium outlier as 28 swingback is below where it really is.
Odd that the swingback Opinium comes in lower than Redfield.
I would have guessed a 31 or 32, so would have been wrong.
Also odd, and impressive, that multiple polls continue to show the Greens in the mid to high single figures despite them getting absolutely zero coverage and indeed having zero of policy substance in the public domain.
People complain about SKS’ Labour not having enough policies yet. Well compared with the Green Party they are a veritable wonk think tank. Yet 5%, 6%, 7% in some cases.
My supposition is this is continuing lefty rebellion of the BJO variety (though he seems to have gone more Tory recently), plus a base load of environmental worry expressing itself to pollsters.
In an election some of that support will unwind. 3% to Labour perhaps? That makes their lead even more commanding. 1 or 2 to the Lib Dems in tactical Southern battles because the LDs say and do the right things on the environment.
Reform get 3-4% with equally zero coverage. I was expecting to see a big Tory-REF swing off the back of the Manston story but it’s not evident so far.
Odd that the swingback Opinium comes in lower than Redfield.
I would have guessed a 31 or 32, so would have been wrong.
Also odd, and impressive, that multiple polls continue to show the Greens in the mid to high single figures despite them getting absolutely zero coverage and indeed having zero of policy substance in the public domain.
People complain about SKS’ Labour not having enough policies yet. Well compared with the Green Party they are a veritable wonk think tank. Yet 5%, 6%, 7% in some cases.
My supposition is this is continuing lefty rebellion of the BJO variety (though he seems to have gone more Tory recently), plus a base load of environmental worry expressing itself to pollsters.
In an election some of that support will unwind. 3% to Labour perhaps? That makes their lead even more commanding. 1 or 2 to the Lib Dems in tactical Southern battles because the LDs say and do the right things on the environment.
Reform get 3-4% with equally zero coverage. I was expecting to see a big Tory-REF swing off the back of the Manston story but it’s not evident so far.
I think the ultra lefties are using the Greens as Spare Labour.
Opinium is out, labour increase lead to 18 (46 28), taking 2 from the LDs otherwise unchanged but Starmer back in the lead by 3 30 27 as best PM...........
That's a solid 15% swing from Conservative to Labour.
Add in the tactical voting swing and you get a Labour majority of over 200 with the Conservatives losing more than two thirds of their seats so not an extinction event but worse than 1997.
Yes so it depends whether we see swingback towards more normal pastures
Nice try but Techne and Osmosis not a million miles away from Opinium suggesting Labour are around or just below 50, the Conservatives around or just below 30 and the Liberal Democrats are around or just below 10.
The R&W "Blue Wall" poll confirmed the willingness of large numbers of Labour and LD voters to vote tactically to unseat a sitting Conservative so the base line numbers don't reflect the degree of anti-Conservative sentiment out there at the moment.
Im not sure what i'm 'trying'? The election is 18 months away, if things stay as they are then the result will be a large Lab majority/landslide, if there is swingback as has often, but not always happened then it will be closer but probably a Lab majority of 'normal' size.
It seems to me that Sunak is an John Major ‘97 situation - he could win, but not with the Conservative Party he has behind him.
My main surprise is that he took the gig. Ok, become PM, but the inevitable hammering which will also end his career in politics?
His best bet imo is to try and claw his way to 35% at a GE and restrict Labour to a strong minority or small majority. I dont see any better than that possible unless Labour implode somehow
That 35 scenario would be remarkable come back, considering two things, the the longest recession ever taking us to polling day, and after all this blue on blue blaming of each other the voters may regard the blue team as responsible for the pain. Truth is it’s a wild international situation Sunak’s government should not take all the blame for - but Truss and Sunak may have overdone it blaming their predecsooors. Twice on the threshold of Downing Street Sunak said Truss mistakes, in voters minds do Boris and Truss own it all, or do they associate mistakes = The Conservatives?
Opinium is out, labour increase lead to 18 (46 28), taking 2 from the LDs otherwise unchanged but Starmer back in the lead by 3 30 27 as best PM...........
That's a solid 15% swing from Conservative to Labour.
Add in the tactical voting swing and you get a Labour majority of over 200 with the Conservatives losing more than two thirds of their seats so not an extinction event but worse than 1997.
Yes so it depends whether we see swingback towards more normal pastures
Nice try but Techne and Osmosis not a million miles away from Opinium suggesting Labour are around or just below 50, the Conservatives around or just below 30 and the Liberal Democrats are around or just below 10.
The R&W "Blue Wall" poll confirmed the willingness of large numbers of Labour and LD voters to vote tactically to unseat a sitting Conservative so the base line numbers don't reflect the degree of anti-Conservative sentiment out there at the moment.
Im not sure what i'm 'trying'? The election is 18 months away, if things stay as they are then the result will be a large Lab majority/landslide, if there is swingback as has often, but not always happened then it will be closer but probably a Lab majority of 'normal' size.
It seems to me that Sunak is an John Major ‘97 situation - he could win, but not with the Conservative Party he has behind him.
My main surprise is that he took the gig. Ok, become PM, but the inevitable hammering which will also end his career in politics?
I'd have taken it in his position; it was the only chance he'd ever get to be PM. And there's still a small chance Labour could implode before the next GE.
Opinium is out, labour increase lead to 18 (46 28), taking 2 from the LDs otherwise unchanged but Starmer back in the lead by 3 30 27 as best PM...........
That's a solid 15% swing from Conservative to Labour.
Add in the tactical voting swing and you get a Labour majority of over 200 with the Conservatives losing more than two thirds of their seats so not an extinction event but worse than 1997.
Yes so it depends whether we see swingback towards more normal pastures
Nice try but Techne and Osmosis not a million miles away from Opinium suggesting Labour are around or just below 50, the Conservatives around or just below 30 and the Liberal Democrats are around or just below 10.
The R&W "Blue Wall" poll confirmed the willingness of large numbers of Labour and LD voters to vote tactically to unseat a sitting Conservative so the base line numbers don't reflect the degree of anti-Conservative sentiment out there at the moment.
Im not sure what i'm 'trying'? The election is 18 months away, if things stay as they are then the result will be a large Lab majority/landslide, if there is swingback as has often, but not always happened then it will be closer but probably a Lab majority of 'normal' size.
It seems to me that Sunak is an John Major ‘97 situation - he could win, but not with the Conservative Party he has behind him.
My main surprise is that he took the gig. Ok, become PM, but the inevitable hammering which will also end his career in politics?
Major must be the ex-PM whose stock with the public has risen the most of any in my lifetime.
Thatcher always divided the room and that remained steady after her defenestration. Blair did a kind of curve: down massively after he left, then partially recovering up to today. Brown’s reputation has slowly declined. Cameron’s fell off a cliff. May’s has slowly risen. Johnson went low during his premiership and has stayed there. Truss is just bumping along the bottom. But Major is widely liked and respected by all except the ERG despite going down to a historical landslide defeat in 1997.
To be clear: it does not appear the $8/month blue checkmark actually grants you a blue checkmark. The feature is not working. The one specific feature that he had to get right https://twitter.com/edzitron/status/1588980881204838401
It's also a massive fight for not much money. $8 per month * 12 months * 400,000 blue ticks * let's say 50% compliance. That's $20m a year on a company with revenue of $5bn.
That's despite the fact I'm now working from home.
That's all about not needing the heating.
Still haven't turned it on, for the matter of that. It's just on frost protection.
We've already had a frost here in Dorset. 11 October 2022 @ 05:54 -0.4°C
Had a couple in Wilts too. Definite car scraping.
And I haven't had one! Weird! Urban heat plume effect?
Local conditions, clear sky in the northerly a few weeks back. Also our house sits in a frost hollow (cold air seeps down the shallow fields to the south).
Ditto here. We're in a pronounced frost hollow, just off the Shaftesbury escarpment (famous for the Hovis advert, 'ee by gum')
Nice! Love the advert, always used to think it was in Yorkshire for some reason. Also the hill itself disappoints except from certain angles, but it’s still great.
Ridley Scott
Radiation cooling the clear night before last here - hoar frost on cars and vegetation and a thin ice crust on a bucket of rainwater.
Odd that the swingback Opinium comes in lower than Redfield.
I would have guessed a 31 or 32, so would have been wrong.
Also odd, and impressive, that multiple polls continue to show the Greens in the mid to high single figures despite them getting absolutely zero coverage and indeed having zero of policy substance in the public domain.
People complain about SKS’ Labour not having enough policies yet. Well compared with the Green Party they are a veritable wonk think tank. Yet 5%, 6%, 7% in some cases.
My supposition is this is continuing lefty rebellion of the BJO variety (though he seems to have gone more Tory recently), plus a base load of environmental worry expressing itself to pollsters.
In an election some of that support will unwind. 3% to Labour perhaps? That makes their lead even more commanding. 1 or 2 to the Lib Dems in tactical Southern battles because the LDs say and do the right things on the environment.
Reform get 3-4% with equally zero coverage. I was expecting to see a big Tory-REF swing off the back of the Manston story but it’s not evident so far.
I think the ultra lefties are using the Greens as Spare Labour.
Yes I think it’s a coalition of ultra lefties and environmentally worried people from across the spectrum.
Opinium is out, labour increase lead to 18 (46 28), taking 2 from the LDs otherwise unchanged but Starmer back in the lead by 3 30 27 as best PM...........
That's a solid 15% swing from Conservative to Labour.
Add in the tactical voting swing and you get a Labour majority of over 200 with the Conservatives losing more than two thirds of their seats so not an extinction event but worse than 1997.
Yes so it depends whether we see swingback towards more normal pastures
Since its methodology change last February Opinium takes account of predicted swingback. On the basis of its previous methodology Opinium would show a Labour lead in the 22% - 25% range.
Odd that the swingback Opinium comes in lower than Redfield.
I would have guessed a 31 or 32, so would have been wrong.
Also odd, and impressive, that multiple polls continue to show the Greens in the mid to high single figures despite them getting absolutely zero coverage and indeed having zero of policy substance in the public domain.
People complain about SKS’ Labour not having enough policies yet. Well compared with the Green Party they are a veritable wonk think tank. Yet 5%, 6%, 7% in some cases.
My supposition is this is continuing lefty rebellion of the BJO variety (though he seems to have gone more Tory recently), plus a base load of environmental worry expressing itself to pollsters.
In an election some of that support will unwind. 3% to Labour perhaps? That makes their lead even more commanding. 1 or 2 to the Lib Dems in tactical Southern battles because the LDs say and do the right things on the environment.
Reform get 3-4% with equally zero coverage. I was expecting to see a big Tory-REF swing off the back of the Manston story but it’s not evident so far.
Those are all very good points. Compared to other pollsters LLG right now this 60 is not large, but we have a feel post Starmergasm how interchangeable it can be on election night, where Labour need a bit of LD to take scalps Starmergasm suggests it will get it.
Opinium is out, labour increase lead to 18 (46 28), taking 2 from the LDs otherwise unchanged but Starmer back in the lead by 3 30 27 as best PM...........
That's a solid 15% swing from Conservative to Labour.
Add in the tactical voting swing and you get a Labour majority of over 200 with the Conservatives losing more than two thirds of their seats so not an extinction event but worse than 1997.
Yes so it depends whether we see swingback towards more normal pastures
Nice try but Techne and Osmosis not a million miles away from Opinium suggesting Labour are around or just below 50, the Conservatives around or just below 30 and the Liberal Democrats are around or just below 10.
The R&W "Blue Wall" poll confirmed the willingness of large numbers of Labour and LD voters to vote tactically to unseat a sitting Conservative so the base line numbers don't reflect the degree of anti-Conservative sentiment out there at the moment.
Im not sure what i'm 'trying'? The election is 18 months away, if things stay as they are then the result will be a large Lab majority/landslide, if there is swingback as has often, but not always happened then it will be closer but probably a Lab majority of 'normal' size.
It seems to me that Sunak is an John Major ‘97 situation - he could win, but not with the Conservative Party he has behind him.
My main surprise is that he took the gig. Ok, become PM, but the inevitable hammering which will also end his career in politics?
His best bet imo is to try and claw his way to 35% at a GE and restrict Labour to a strong minority or small majority. I dont see any better than that possible unless Labour implode somehow
That 35 scenario would be remarkable come back, considering two things, the the longest recession ever taking us to polling day, and after all this blue on blue blaming of each other the voters may regard the blue team as responsible for the pain. Truth is it’s a wild international situation Sunak’s government should not take all the blame for - but Truss and Sunak may have overdone it blaming their predecsooors. Twice on the threshold of Downing Street Sunak said Truss mistakes, in voters minds do Boris and Truss own it all, or do they associate mistakes = The Conservatives?
It would but he's got to aim for something rather than just drifting to disaster. If the switchers remain with Lab he loses regardless so he needs to shore up the 80-85% remaining of the Boris coalition, half of whom are currently not inclined to bother. The closer they keep it the easier 2029 becomes cos Labour will be as popular as haemmoroids by 2025/6
Opinium is out, labour increase lead to 18 (46 28), taking 2 from the LDs otherwise unchanged but Starmer back in the lead by 3 30 27 as best PM...........
That's a solid 15% swing from Conservative to Labour.
Add in the tactical voting swing and you get a Labour majority of over 200 with the Conservatives losing more than two thirds of their seats so not an extinction event but worse than 1997.
Yes so it depends whether we see swingback towards more normal pastures
Nice try but Techne and Osmosis not a million miles away from Opinium suggesting Labour are around or just below 50, the Conservatives around or just below 30 and the Liberal Democrats are around or just below 10.
The R&W "Blue Wall" poll confirmed the willingness of large numbers of Labour and LD voters to vote tactically to unseat a sitting Conservative so the base line numbers don't reflect the degree of anti-Conservative sentiment out there at the moment.
Im not sure what i'm 'trying'? The election is 18 months away, if things stay as they are then the result will be a large Lab majority/landslide, if there is swingback as has often, but not always happened then it will be closer but probably a Lab majority of 'normal' size.
It seems to me that Sunak is an John Major ‘97 situation - he could win, but not with the Conservative Party he has behind him.
My main surprise is that he took the gig. Ok, become PM, but the inevitable hammering which will also end his career in politics?
Major must be the ex-PM whose stock with the public has risen the most of any in my lifetime.
Thatcher always divided the room and that remained steady after her defenestration. Blair did a kind of curve: down massively after he left, then partially recovering up to today. Brown’s reputation has slowly declined. Cameron’s fell off a cliff. May’s has slowly risen. Johnson went low during his premiership and has stayed there. Truss is just bumping along the bottom. But Major is widely liked and respected by all except the ERG despite going down to a historical landslide defeat in 1997.
To be clear: it does not appear the $8/month blue checkmark actually grants you a blue checkmark. The feature is not working. The one specific feature that he had to get right https://twitter.com/edzitron/status/1588980881204838401
It's also a massive fight for not much money. $8 per month * 12 months * 400,000 blue ticks * let's say 50% compliance. That's $20m a year on a company with revenue of $5bn.
Opinium is out, labour increase lead to 18 (46 28), taking 2 from the LDs otherwise unchanged but Starmer back in the lead by 3 30 27 as best PM...........
That's a solid 15% swing from Conservative to Labour.
Add in the tactical voting swing and you get a Labour majority of over 200 with the Conservatives losing more than two thirds of their seats so not an extinction event but worse than 1997.
Yes so it depends whether we see swingback towards more normal pastures
Since its methodology change last February Opinium takes account of predicted swingback. On the basis of its previous methodology Opinium would show a Labour lead in the 22% - 25% range.
Does that undersell how interesting Opinium have been though? Historically there often is swingback. Throughout the era of the Crimes of Boris the Opinium swingback couldn’t give Labour a lead bigger than 4.
Opinium is out, labour increase lead to 18 (46 28), taking 2 from the LDs otherwise unchanged but Starmer back in the lead by 3 30 27 as best PM...........
That's a solid 15% swing from Conservative to Labour.
Add in the tactical voting swing and you get a Labour majority of over 200 with the Conservatives losing more than two thirds of their seats so not an extinction event but worse than 1997.
Yes so it depends whether we see swingback towards more normal pastures
Since its methodology change last February Opinium takes account of predicted swingback. On the basis of its previous methodology Opinium would show a Labour lead in the 22% - 25% range.
True, ok then replace 'swingback' with 'movement' - i mean its not going to sit still for 18 months any more than it did 95 to 97. It could get much worse of course
Opinium is out, labour increase lead to 18 (46 28), taking 2 from the LDs otherwise unchanged but Starmer back in the lead by 3 30 27 as best PM...........
That's a solid 15% swing from Conservative to Labour.
Add in the tactical voting swing and you get a Labour majority of over 200 with the Conservatives losing more than two thirds of their seats so not an extinction event but worse than 1997.
Yes so it depends whether we see swingback towards more normal pastures
Nice try but Techne and Osmosis not a million miles away from Opinium suggesting Labour are around or just below 50, the Conservatives around or just below 30 and the Liberal Democrats are around or just below 10.
The R&W "Blue Wall" poll confirmed the willingness of large numbers of Labour and LD voters to vote tactically to unseat a sitting Conservative so the base line numbers don't reflect the degree of anti-Conservative sentiment out there at the moment.
Im not sure what i'm 'trying'? The election is 18 months away, if things stay as they are then the result will be a large Lab majority/landslide, if there is swingback as has often, but not always happened then it will be closer but probably a Lab majority of 'normal' size.
It seems to me that Sunak is an John Major ‘97 situation - he could win, but not with the Conservative Party he has behind him.
My main surprise is that he took the gig. Ok, become PM, but the inevitable hammering which will also end his career in politics?
I'd have taken it in his position; it was the only chance he'd ever get to be PM. And there's still a small chance Labour could implode before the next GE.
Agreed. He is PM. Not a phrase that one could apportion to many people in history.
Has anyone ever been to the Pike Hotel in Ibiza by the way
"Club Tropicana drinks are free" Wham, actually they were 15-euro pre covid. The Freddie Mercury suite is now a nightclub that I went to but could still here at 3:00am from my room. Music was awful but I did try. They have a Director of Vibe to get the party going round the pool and a DJ poolside. Definitely memorable to swim in the Club Tropicana pool and sit at the pool bar.
Gavin Williamson is one of those odd people that you get in politics sometimes that just keep coming back time after time after time like a turd you can never quite flush away...
To be clear: it does not appear the $8/month blue checkmark actually grants you a blue checkmark. The feature is not working. The one specific feature that he had to get right https://twitter.com/edzitron/status/1588980881204838401
It's also a massive fight for not much money. $8 per month * 12 months * 400,000 blue ticks * let's say 50% compliance. That's $20m a year on a company with revenue of $5bn.
He won't get anything like that number.
The strange thing about the whole twitter saga is we are judging Musk on his first week in the job.
Twitter was stagnant and losing money for years, despite an active userbase and no serious competition (instagram doesn't do the same thing, facebook doesn't do the same thing, ticktock doesn't do the same thing etc).
It's what he does with it over the next couple of years that interests me. Number one on my list would be integrating micropayments so, say, a journalist could tweet a link to their latest substack and you could pay 2p to read it.
Facebook has been a dead platform for years, Instagram is utterly passé now. And yet nobody is piling on Zuckerberg for having the most powerful media platforms of our time and blowing it all by driving away most of the userbase with pointless algos and tweaks that make the platforms less and less desirable places to be.
I will judge Musk on where Twitter is in a year or two's time. Zoom out.
Outlier? Labour actually increasing their lead in that poll. File in the bin, for now.
Its a no change poll really, recycling of 2% from LD to Lab, all MoE stuff. Next one will show if movement has ceased or reversed or goes on
True. But other firms have shown Sunak Honeymoon Bounce continue to increase the party share, so Anabob is right to call this brakes on poll the outlier in the bunch.
Outlier? Labour actually increasing their lead in that poll. File in the bin, for now.
The news cycle seems to have decided Sunak’s honeymoon is over: Braverman, Sunak, recession, tax rises etc. So I wouldn’t be surprised if polls follow suit.
It’s a dangerous time for Labour though. For the next 2 years they’re going to be seen as the likely next government, so they’re going to get a lot of scrutiny. The Tories facing almost certain defeat may well opt for a nihilistic “they’re all as bad as each other” approach which is usually damaging for opposition.
Opinium is out, labour increase lead to 18 (46 28), taking 2 from the LDs otherwise unchanged but Starmer back in the lead by 3 30 27 as best PM...........
That's a solid 15% swing from Conservative to Labour.
Add in the tactical voting swing and you get a Labour majority of over 200 with the Conservatives losing more than two thirds of their seats so not an extinction event but worse than 1997.
Yes so it depends whether we see swingback towards more normal pastures
Since its methodology change last February Opinium takes account of predicted swingback. On the basis of its previous methodology Opinium would show a Labour lead in the 22% - 25% range.
True, ok then replace 'swingback' with 'movement' - i mean its not going to sit still for 18 months any more than it did 95 to 97. It could get much worse of course
Though some 'swingback' - compared with two weeks ago - has already happened. How much more is to be reasonably expected? To what extent is a Sunak honeymoon bounce propping up the Tory vote share?
To be clear: it does not appear the $8/month blue checkmark actually grants you a blue checkmark. The feature is not working. The one specific feature that he had to get right https://twitter.com/edzitron/status/1588980881204838401
It's also a massive fight for not much money. $8 per month * 12 months * 400,000 blue ticks * let's say 50% compliance. That's $20m a year on a company with revenue of $5bn.
He won't get anything like that number.
The strange thing about the whole twitter saga is we are judging Musk on his first week in the job.
Twitter was stagnant and losing money for years, despite an active userbase and no serious competition (instagram doesn't do the same thing, facebook doesn't do the same thing, ticktock doesn't do the same thing etc).
It's what he does with it over the next couple of years that interests me. Number one on my list would be integrating micropayments so, say, a journalist could tweet a link to their latest substack and you could pay 2p to read it.
Facebook has been a dead platform for years, Instagram is utterly passé now. And yet nobody is piling on Zuckerberg for having the most powerful media platforms of our time and blowing it all by driving away most of the userbase with pointless algos and tweaks that make the platforms less and less desirable places to be.
I will judge Musk on where Twitter is in a year or two's time. Zoom out.
The failure of Facebook and the impending failure of Instagram are quite startling
If you go on Facebook it actually LOOKS old-fashioned. Cluttered, stale and annoying. They must surely know this at Zuckerberg House, yet they have done nothing to address the problem. Nor have they launched any new social media, as far as I can see
They've taken the money, complacently. It is an IBM in the making. Perhaps even a Kodak
New polling with fieldwork conducted 1-3 November – just over a week after Rishi Sunak’s takeover sees Labour’s voting intention lead over the Conservatives remaining considerable, at 23 points. Changes below are since our prior poll with fieldwork 26th-27th October. https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1589004500920324096/photo/1
Opinium is out, labour increase lead to 18 (46 28), taking 2 from the LDs otherwise unchanged but Starmer back in the lead by 3 30 27 as best PM...........
That's a solid 15% swing from Conservative to Labour.
Add in the tactical voting swing and you get a Labour majority of over 200 with the Conservatives losing more than two thirds of their seats so not an extinction event but worse than 1997.
Yes so it depends whether we see swingback towards more normal pastures
Nice try but Techne and Osmosis not a million miles away from Opinium suggesting Labour are around or just below 50, the Conservatives around or just below 30 and the Liberal Democrats are around or just below 10.
The R&W "Blue Wall" poll confirmed the willingness of large numbers of Labour and LD voters to vote tactically to unseat a sitting Conservative so the base line numbers don't reflect the degree of anti-Conservative sentiment out there at the moment.
Im not sure what i'm 'trying'? The election is 18 months away, if things stay as they are then the result will be a large Lab majority/landslide, if there is swingback as has often, but not always happened then it will be closer but probably a Lab majority of 'normal' size.
It seems to me that Sunak is an John Major ‘97 situation - he could win, but not with the Conservative Party he has behind him.
My main surprise is that he took the gig. Ok, become PM, but the inevitable hammering which will also end his career in politics?
His best bet imo is to try and claw his way to 35% at a GE and restrict Labour to a strong minority or small majority. I dont see any better than that possible unless Labour implode somehow
That 35 scenario would be remarkable come back, considering two things, the the longest recession ever taking us to polling day, and after all this blue on blue blaming of each other the voters may regard the blue team as responsible for the pain. Truth is it’s a wild international situation Sunak’s government should not take all the blame for - but Truss and Sunak may have overdone it blaming their predecsooors. Twice on the threshold of Downing Street Sunak said Truss mistakes, in voters minds do Boris and Truss own it all, or do they associate mistakes = The Conservatives?
It would but he's got to aim for something rather than just drifting to disaster. If the switchers remain with Lab he loses regardless so he needs to shore up the 80-85% remaining of the Boris coalition, half of whom are currently not inclined to bother. The closer they keep it the easier 2029 becomes cos Labour will be as popular as haemmoroids by 2025/6
If I was Team Sunak I wouldn’t even poll watch - just as a football team takes each week as it comes and aim to win the weeks and the set piece events.
I don’t think they need a budget that’s all about QT and pulling money into government coffers, a range of “austerity” headlines next day won’t be helpful in the bigger picture becuase early impressions do last. They need the budget to produce “looks after the most vulnerable” headlines, as contrast to the Trussterfuck budget, and neuter labours attack line.
And there’s a range of policy they can easily deliver improvements, not least the 4% processing figure, but ambulance waiting times, medical appointment waiting times, getting to see a doctor waiting times, start ups, exports - just improve things and the polls take care of themselves.
To be clear: it does not appear the $8/month blue checkmark actually grants you a blue checkmark. The feature is not working. The one specific feature that he had to get right https://twitter.com/edzitron/status/1588980881204838401
It's also a massive fight for not much money. $8 per month * 12 months * 400,000 blue ticks * let's say 50% compliance. That's $20m a year on a company with revenue of $5bn.
He won't get anything like that number.
The strange thing about the whole twitter saga is we are judging Musk on his first week in the job.
Twitter was stagnant and losing money for years, despite an active userbase and no serious competition (instagram doesn't do the same thing, facebook doesn't do the same thing, ticktock doesn't do the same thing etc).
It's what he does with it over the next couple of years that interests me. Number one on my list would be integrating micropayments so, say, a journalist could tweet a link to their latest substack and you could pay 2p to read it.
Facebook has been a dead platform for years, Instagram is utterly passé now. And yet nobody is piling on Zuckerberg for having the most powerful media platforms of our time and blowing it all by driving away most of the userbase with pointless algos and tweaks that make the platforms less and less desirable places to be.
I will judge Musk on where Twitter is in a year or two's time. Zoom out.
The massive media barrage of negativity and pressure on advertisers, is being very carefully organised, especially because of the US election next week. There’s a lot of people who benefited from Twitter as it was, and don’t like the change of management. As you say, judge everything a year from now.
Were the Shropshire North by election taking place today - rather than at the end of 2021 - it seems likely that Labour would be in much more serious contention to win the seat. The case for pro- LD tactical voting would be much weaker than it appeared at the time.
Were the Shropshire North by election taking place today - rather than at the end of 2021 - it seems likely that Labour would be in much more serious contention to win the seat. The case for pro- LD tactical voting would be much weaker than it appeared at the time.
That was late in December - I remember mopping pizza off the ceiling next day before travelling to Yorkshire 🤦♀️
I guess I’ll never forget my first political betting win.
To be clear: it does not appear the $8/month blue checkmark actually grants you a blue checkmark. The feature is not working. The one specific feature that he had to get right https://twitter.com/edzitron/status/1588980881204838401
It's also a massive fight for not much money. $8 per month * 12 months * 400,000 blue ticks * let's say 50% compliance. That's $20m a year on a company with revenue of $5bn.
He won't get anything like that number.
The strange thing about the whole twitter saga is we are judging Musk on his first week in the job.
Twitter was stagnant and losing money for years, despite an active userbase and no serious competition (instagram doesn't do the same thing, facebook doesn't do the same thing, ticktock doesn't do the same thing etc).
It's what he does with it over the next couple of years that interests me. Number one on my list would be integrating micropayments so, say, a journalist could tweet a link to their latest substack and you could pay 2p to read it.
Facebook has been a dead platform for years, Instagram is utterly passé now. And yet nobody is piling on Zuckerberg for having the most powerful media platforms of our time and blowing it all by driving away most of the userbase with pointless algos and tweaks that make the platforms less and less desirable places to be.
I will judge Musk on where Twitter is in a year or two's time. Zoom out.
The massive media barrage of negativity and pressure on advertisers, is being very carefully organised, especially because of the US election next week. There’s a lot of people who benefited from Twitter as it was, and don’t like the change of management. As you say, judge everything a year from now.
Or it could be that advertisers had a big meeting with Musk and said "will you offer us the same level of brand safety as previously" and Musk said "lol no" and advertisers went "Fuck that then" and pulled advertising.
Imagining in some "Big Woke" conspiracy against Musk brings some people comfort because they can't face up to the idea he has no idea how to run a media company who's primary business is selling advertising space.
To be clear: it does not appear the $8/month blue checkmark actually grants you a blue checkmark. The feature is not working. The one specific feature that he had to get right https://twitter.com/edzitron/status/1588980881204838401
It's also a massive fight for not much money. $8 per month * 12 months * 400,000 blue ticks * let's say 50% compliance. That's $20m a year on a company with revenue of $5bn.
He won't get anything like that number.
The strange thing about the whole twitter saga is we are judging Musk on his first week in the job.
Twitter was stagnant and losing money for years, despite an active userbase and no serious competition (instagram doesn't do the same thing, facebook doesn't do the same thing, ticktock doesn't do the same thing etc).
It's what he does with it over the next couple of years that interests me. Number one on my list would be integrating micropayments so, say, a journalist could tweet a link to their latest substack and you could pay 2p to read it.
Facebook has been a dead platform for years, Instagram is utterly passé now. And yet nobody is piling on Zuckerberg for having the most powerful media platforms of our time and blowing it all by driving away most of the userbase with pointless algos and tweaks that make the platforms less and less desirable places to be.
I will judge Musk on where Twitter is in a year or two's time. Zoom out.
The massive media barrage of negativity and pressure on advertisers, is being very carefully organised, especially because of the US election next week. There’s a lot of people who benefited from Twitter as it was, and don’t like the change of management. As you say, judge everything a year from now.
Or it could be that advertisers had a big meeting with Musk and said "will you offer us the same level of brand safety as previously" and Musk said "lol no" and advertisers went "Fuck that then" and pulled advertising.
Imagining in some "Big Woke" conspiracy against Musk brings some people comfort because they can't face up to the idea he has no idea how to run a media company who's primary business is selling advertising space.
He can afford to bleed money for a while, however
Arguably, all this kerfuffle has shown how important Twitter is, and how he was right to pay $44bn
50 to 27, lab down 1 Tory no change, Starmer leads by 5 as best PM 39 to 34
Lab 50 Con 27 LD 7 SNP 4 Green 3
I’m still calling the Opinium the outlier, Obviously with a tad less credibility with another honeymoon busting poll.
The Wikiline is still tending red down, blue up.
However.
The Sunak Honeymoon Bounce (ooer missus) might have passed the peak of its passion. The trend that set in last summer would point to C30 L42 as about par, and Rishi isn't quite up to that yet.
And part of the reason for swingback is that governments in control of events put pain in years 1 and 2 of their term, followed by pleasure in years 3 and 4. (Kinky). Covid, Ukraine, Brexit and utter incompetence have meant that this government doesn't have that option.
Imagining in some "Big Woke" conspiracy against Musk brings some people comfort because they can't face up to the idea he has no idea how to run a media company who's primary business is selling advertising space.
He doesn't understand what he bought. He will play with it until it is broken.
I actually looked at the prices when I went shopping in Aldi, today.
Your bog standard, regular 800g wholemeal hovis loaf, which has hovered between 75p-£1 for a decade, has jumped up to £1.45.
That’s now 3.5x the 800g uber-basic chorleywood loaf, at 39p, itself up from 19-29p(ish).
This ain’t just an Aldi thing - similar prices across the other main supermarkets.
People really are getting poorer.
I've been trying to find the chart on wheat prices. I saw someone remark that prices are now back to where they were twelve months ago but that may just be the US.
Were the Shropshire North by election taking place today - rather than at the end of 2021 - it seems likely that Labour would be in much more serious contention to win the seat. The case for pro- LD tactical voting would be much weaker than it appeared at the time.
That was late in December - I remember mopping pizza off the ceiling next day before travelling to Yorkshire 🤦♀️
I guess I’ll never forget my first political betting win.
Polling Day was 16th December.Based on the results at GEs 2010 - 2019 , Labour could now reasonably think in terms of a vote share there of circa 40% - no need to switch to LDs.
To be clear: it does not appear the $8/month blue checkmark actually grants you a blue checkmark. The feature is not working. The one specific feature that he had to get right https://twitter.com/edzitron/status/1588980881204838401
It's also a massive fight for not much money. $8 per month * 12 months * 400,000 blue ticks * let's say 50% compliance. That's $20m a year on a company with revenue of $5bn.
He won't get anything like that number.
The strange thing about the whole twitter saga is we are judging Musk on his first week in the job.
Twitter was stagnant and losing money for years, despite an active userbase and no serious competition (instagram doesn't do the same thing, facebook doesn't do the same thing, ticktock doesn't do the same thing etc).
It's what he does with it over the next couple of years that interests me. Number one on my list would be integrating micropayments so, say, a journalist could tweet a link to their latest substack and you could pay 2p to read it.
Facebook has been a dead platform for years, Instagram is utterly passé now. And yet nobody is piling on Zuckerberg for having the most powerful media platforms of our time and blowing it all by driving away most of the userbase with pointless algos and tweaks that make the platforms less and less desirable places to be.
I will judge Musk on where Twitter is in a year or two's time. Zoom out.
The massive media barrage of negativity and pressure on advertisers, is being very carefully organised, especially because of the US election next week. There’s a lot of people who benefited from Twitter as it was, and don’t like the change of management. As you say, judge everything a year from now.
Or it could be that advertisers had a big meeting with Musk and said "will you offer us the same level of brand safety as previously" and Musk said "lol no" and advertisers went "Fuck that then" and pulled advertising.
Imagining in some "Big Woke" conspiracy against Musk brings some people comfort because they can't face up to the idea he has no idea how to run a media company who's primary business is selling advertising space.
He can afford to bleed money for a while, however
Arguably, all this kerfuffle has shown how important Twitter is, and how he was right to pay $44bn
Everyone is just enjoying dunking on bad ideas man.
Everyday now I log on to see what the new bad idea is. Maybe he'll post another meme grabbed from a far-right site. Or this time it will be gross violation of employment law. Everyday is a glorious suprise.
Gavin Williamson is one of those odd people that you get in politics sometimes that just keep coming back time after time after time like a turd you can never quite flush away...
Similes don't come more original than that. you must be very proud.
To be clear: it does not appear the $8/month blue checkmark actually grants you a blue checkmark. The feature is not working. The one specific feature that he had to get right https://twitter.com/edzitron/status/1588980881204838401
It's also a massive fight for not much money. $8 per month * 12 months * 400,000 blue ticks * let's say 50% compliance. That's $20m a year on a company with revenue of $5bn.
He won't get anything like that number.
The strange thing about the whole twitter saga is we are judging Musk on his first week in the job.
Twitter was stagnant and losing money for years, despite an active userbase and no serious competition (instagram doesn't do the same thing, facebook doesn't do the same thing, ticktock doesn't do the same thing etc).
It's what he does with it over the next couple of years that interests me. Number one on my list would be integrating micropayments so, say, a journalist could tweet a link to their latest substack and you could pay 2p to read it.
Facebook has been a dead platform for years, Instagram is utterly passé now. And yet nobody is piling on Zuckerberg for having the most powerful media platforms of our time and blowing it all by driving away most of the userbase with pointless algos and tweaks that make the platforms less and less desirable places to be.
I will judge Musk on where Twitter is in a year or two's time. Zoom out.
The massive media barrage of negativity and pressure on advertisers, is being very carefully organised, especially because of the US election next week. There’s a lot of people who benefited from Twitter as it was, and don’t like the change of management. As you say, judge everything a year from now.
Or it could be that advertisers had a big meeting with Musk and said "will you offer us the same level of brand safety as previously" and Musk said "lol no" and advertisers went "Fuck that then" and pulled advertising.
Imagining in some "Big Woke" conspiracy against Musk brings some people comfort because they can't face up to the idea he has no idea how to run a media company who's primary business is selling advertising space.
He can afford to bleed money for a while, however
Arguably, all this kerfuffle has shown how important Twitter is, and how he was right to pay $44bn
Everyone is just enjoying dunking on bad ideas man.
Everyday now I log on to see what the new bad idea is. Maybe he'll post another meme grabbed from a far-right site. Or this time it will be gross violation of employment law. Everyday is a glorious suprise.
Imagining in some "Big Woke" conspiracy against Musk brings some people comfort because they can't face up to the idea he has no idea how to run a media company who's primary business is selling advertising space.
He doesn't understand what he bought. He will play with it until it is broken.
From his point of view, Twitter is a medium to speak, because that's what he does.
The idea that most of its value is as a medium to listen just isn't on his radar.
To be clear: it does not appear the $8/month blue checkmark actually grants you a blue checkmark. The feature is not working. The one specific feature that he had to get right https://twitter.com/edzitron/status/1588980881204838401
It's also a massive fight for not much money. $8 per month * 12 months * 400,000 blue ticks * let's say 50% compliance. That's $20m a year on a company with revenue of $5bn.
He won't get anything like that number.
The strange thing about the whole twitter saga is we are judging Musk on his first week in the job.
Twitter was stagnant and losing money for years, despite an active userbase and no serious competition (instagram doesn't do the same thing, facebook doesn't do the same thing, ticktock doesn't do the same thing etc).
It's what he does with it over the next couple of years that interests me. Number one on my list would be integrating micropayments so, say, a journalist could tweet a link to their latest substack and you could pay 2p to read it.
Facebook has been a dead platform for years, Instagram is utterly passé now. And yet nobody is piling on Zuckerberg for having the most powerful media platforms of our time and blowing it all by driving away most of the userbase with pointless algos and tweaks that make the platforms less and less desirable places to be.
I will judge Musk on where Twitter is in a year or two's time. Zoom out.
The massive media barrage of negativity and pressure on advertisers, is being very carefully organised, especially because of the US election next week. There’s a lot of people who benefited from Twitter as it was, and don’t like the change of management. As you say, judge everything a year from now.
Or it could be that advertisers had a big meeting with Musk and said "will you offer us the same level of brand safety as previously" and Musk said "lol no" and advertisers went "Fuck that then" and pulled advertising.
Imagining in some "Big Woke" conspiracy against Musk brings some people comfort because they can't face up to the idea he has no idea how to run a media company who's primary business is selling advertising space.
He can afford to bleed money for a while, however
Arguably, all this kerfuffle has shown how important Twitter is, and how he was right to pay $44bn
Twitter just shows we need a twitter, not the particular flavour Musk now owns. It's a shame Mastodon is such a mess, but there's no reasonit can't be replaced by a workable open source alternative. There is a non zero chance that Musk has cooked $44bn down to $0.
50 to 27, lab down 1 Tory no change, Starmer leads by 5 as best PM 39 to 34
Lab 50 Con 27 LD 7 SNP 4 Green 3
I’m still calling the Opinium the outlier, Obviously with a tad less credibility with another honeymoon busting poll.
Because Opinium is lower? Since their change of methodology they've been consistently lower with Labour leads - their 18% would be in the 20s with most other polling companies.
To be clear: it does not appear the $8/month blue checkmark actually grants you a blue checkmark. The feature is not working. The one specific feature that he had to get right https://twitter.com/edzitron/status/1588980881204838401
It's also a massive fight for not much money. $8 per month * 12 months * 400,000 blue ticks * let's say 50% compliance. That's $20m a year on a company with revenue of $5bn.
He won't get anything like that number.
The strange thing about the whole twitter saga is we are judging Musk on his first week in the job.
Twitter was stagnant and losing money for years, despite an active userbase and no serious competition (instagram doesn't do the same thing, facebook doesn't do the same thing, ticktock doesn't do the same thing etc).
It's what he does with it over the next couple of years that interests me. Number one on my list would be integrating micropayments so, say, a journalist could tweet a link to their latest substack and you could pay 2p to read it.
Facebook has been a dead platform for years, Instagram is utterly passé now. And yet nobody is piling on Zuckerberg for having the most powerful media platforms of our time and blowing it all by driving away most of the userbase with pointless algos and tweaks that make the platforms less and less desirable places to be.
I will judge Musk on where Twitter is in a year or two's time. Zoom out.
The massive media barrage of negativity and pressure on advertisers, is being very carefully organised, especially because of the US election next week. There’s a lot of people who benefited from Twitter as it was, and don’t like the change of management. As you say, judge everything a year from now.
Or it could be that advertisers had a big meeting with Musk and said "will you offer us the same level of brand safety as previously" and Musk said "lol no" and advertisers went "Fuck that then" and pulled advertising.
Imagining in some "Big Woke" conspiracy against Musk brings some people comfort because they can't face up to the idea he has no idea how to run a media company who's primary business is selling advertising space.
There's another aspect here; Musk famously does not use advertising (at least, traditional adverts), and allegedly dislikes advertisers. Instead, he relies on contagious word-of-mouth and hype. It has worked well for him.
Yet the business he has just bought relies on advertisers for much of its revenue. It might be that he simply does not understand 'traditional' advertising and the adverts industry, and that has led him to make some rather significant early strategic mistakes.
50 to 27, lab down 1 Tory no change, Starmer leads by 5 as best PM 39 to 34
Lab 50 Con 27 LD 7 SNP 4 Green 3
I’m still calling the Opinium the outlier, Obviously with a tad less credibility with another honeymoon busting poll.
Because Opinium is lower? Since their change of methodology they've been consistently lower with Labour leads - their 18% would be in the 20s with most other polling companies.
Indeed. Redfield & Wilton looks more likely to be the outlier.
To be clear: it does not appear the $8/month blue checkmark actually grants you a blue checkmark. The feature is not working. The one specific feature that he had to get right https://twitter.com/edzitron/status/1588980881204838401
It's also a massive fight for not much money. $8 per month * 12 months * 400,000 blue ticks * let's say 50% compliance. That's $20m a year on a company with revenue of $5bn.
He won't get anything like that number.
The strange thing about the whole twitter saga is we are judging Musk on his first week in the job.
Twitter was stagnant and losing money for years, despite an active userbase and no serious competition (instagram doesn't do the same thing, facebook doesn't do the same thing, ticktock doesn't do the same thing etc).
It's what he does with it over the next couple of years that interests me. Number one on my list would be integrating micropayments so, say, a journalist could tweet a link to their latest substack and you could pay 2p to read it.
Facebook has been a dead platform for years, Instagram is utterly passé now. And yet nobody is piling on Zuckerberg for having the most powerful media platforms of our time and blowing it all by driving away most of the userbase with pointless algos and tweaks that make the platforms less and less desirable places to be.
I will judge Musk on where Twitter is in a year or two's time. Zoom out.
The massive media barrage of negativity and pressure on advertisers, is being very carefully organised, especially because of the US election next week. There’s a lot of people who benefited from Twitter as it was, and don’t like the change of management. As you say, judge everything a year from now.
Or it could be that advertisers had a big meeting with Musk and said "will you offer us the same level of brand safety as previously" and Musk said "lol no" and advertisers went "Fuck that then" and pulled advertising.
Imagining in some "Big Woke" conspiracy against Musk brings some people comfort because they can't face up to the idea he has no idea how to run a media company who's primary business is selling advertising space.
He can afford to bleed money for a while, however
Arguably, all this kerfuffle has shown how important Twitter is, and how he was right to pay $44bn
Musk may have a genius plan for twitter, or he may stumble across one accidentally, but at the moment it looks like the most likely outcome is that he kills it, and switches all the servers off after losing interest and tiring of losing more money on it.
If I'd loaned him money to help him buy it I'd be nervously checking the terms of those loans very carefully now.
Imagining in some "Big Woke" conspiracy against Musk brings some people comfort because they can't face up to the idea he has no idea how to run a media company who's primary business is selling advertising space.
He doesn't understand what he bought. He will play with it until it is broken.
In his defence I've definitely read articles (albeit a few years old) that the founders and runners of twitter didn't seem to understand what they'd created or what to do with it either.
Comments
https://open.spotify.com/track/6QPWlnKedfBJ9efypriWSA?si=T3EHYDNcRFervKjWS-T6Ig&utm_source=copy-link
Not really a national anthem though.
PM appointed Williamson 24hrs later regardless. Same day he said his govt would be run with accountability + integrity from top to bottom https://twitter.com/gabriel_pogrund/status/1588945227511103489
LAB: 46% (+2)
CON: 28% (=)
LDM: 8% (-2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
SNP: 4% (=)
Via @OpiniumResearch, On 2-4 November,
Changes w/ 28 October.
The R&W "Blue Wall" poll confirmed the willingness of large numbers of Labour and LD voters to vote tactically to unseat a sitting Conservative so the base line numbers don't reflect the degree of anti-Conservative sentiment out there at the moment.
(And nsfw)
Immigration soaring up list of priorities - 73% say UK not in control of borders.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1588990020039630848
Twitter Is Our Future
What's happening to the entire media, in speeded-up time-lapse form.
https://fallows.substack.com/p/twitter-is-our-future
I would have guessed a 31 or 32, so would have been wrong.
My main surprise is that he took the gig. Ok, become PM, but the inevitable hammering which will also end his career in politics?
It looks however for now as if 30 is very much upper end, its 27 to 30 with PP and YouGov going lower
It doesn’t matter in two weeks time as a fresh survey negates any mistake Opinium has made here that should show a more eye catching correction.
I’m calling it an Opinium outlier as 28 swingback is below where it really is.
People complain about SKS’ Labour not having enough policies yet. Well compared with the Green Party they are a veritable wonk think tank. Yet 5%, 6%, 7% in some cases.
My supposition is this is continuing lefty rebellion of the BJO variety (though he seems to have gone more Tory recently), plus a base load of environmental worry expressing itself to pollsters.
In an election some of that support will unwind. 3% to Labour perhaps? That makes their lead even more commanding. 1 or 2 to the Lib Dems in tactical Southern battles because the LDs say and do the right things on the environment.
Reform get 3-4% with equally zero coverage. I was expecting to see a big Tory-REF swing off the back of the Manston story but it’s not evident so far.
Thatcher always divided the room and that remained steady after her defenestration. Blair did a kind of curve: down massively after he left, then partially recovering up to today. Brown’s reputation has slowly declined. Cameron’s fell off a cliff. May’s has slowly risen. Johnson went low during his premiership and has stayed there. Truss is just bumping along the bottom. But Major is widely liked and respected by all except the ERG despite going down to a historical landslide defeat in 1997.
The closer they keep it the easier 2029 becomes cos Labour will be as popular as haemmoroids by 2025/6
The Freddie Mercury suite is now a nightclub that I went to but could still here at 3:00am from my room. Music was awful but I did try. They have a Director of Vibe to get the party going round the pool and a DJ poolside. Definitely memorable to swim in the Club Tropicana pool and sit at the pool bar.
Twitter was stagnant and losing money for years, despite an active userbase and no serious competition (instagram doesn't do the same thing, facebook doesn't do the same thing, ticktock doesn't do the same thing etc).
It's what he does with it over the next couple of years that interests me. Number one on my list would be integrating micropayments so, say, a journalist could tweet a link to their latest substack and you could pay 2p to read it.
Facebook has been a dead platform for years, Instagram is utterly passé now. And yet nobody is piling on Zuckerberg for having the most powerful media platforms of our time and blowing it all by driving away most of the userbase with pointless algos and tweaks that make the platforms less and less desirable places to be.
I will judge Musk on where Twitter is in a year or two's time. Zoom out.
It’s a dangerous time for Labour though. For the next 2 years they’re going to be seen as the likely next government, so they’re going to get a lot of scrutiny. The Tories facing almost certain defeat may well opt for a nihilistic “they’re all as bad as each other” approach which is usually damaging for opposition.
Your bog standard, regular 800g wholemeal hovis loaf, which has hovered between 75p-£1 for a decade, has jumped up to £1.45.
That’s now 3.5x the 800g uber-basic chorleywood loaf, at 39p, itself up from 19-29p(ish).
This ain’t just an Aldi thing - similar prices across the other main supermarkets.
People really are getting poorer.
I still reckon post-Xmas is the time to start taking the polls seriously again.
If you go on Facebook it actually LOOKS old-fashioned. Cluttered, stale and annoying. They must surely know this at Zuckerberg House, yet they have done nothing to address the problem. Nor have they launched any new social media, as far as I can see
They've taken the money, complacently. It is an IBM in the making. Perhaps even a Kodak
50 to 27, lab down 1 Tory no change, Starmer leads by 5 as best PM 39 to 34
Lab 50
Con 27
LD 7
SNP 4
Green 3
I don’t think they need a budget that’s all about QT and pulling money into government coffers, a range of “austerity” headlines next day won’t be helpful in the bigger picture becuase early impressions do last. They need the budget to produce “looks after the most vulnerable” headlines, as contrast to the Trussterfuck budget, and neuter labours attack line.
And there’s a range of policy they can easily deliver improvements, not least the 4% processing figure, but ambulance waiting times, medical appointment waiting times, getting to see a doctor waiting times, start ups, exports - just improve things and the polls take care of themselves.
Pack your bags
And leave tonight
I rather like the French people, too. They are much less rude and arrogant than they used to be
Accepting the end of French language supremacy has been good for them
I guess I’ll never forget my first political betting win.
Imagining in some "Big Woke" conspiracy against Musk brings some people comfort because they can't face up to the idea he has no idea how to run a media company who's primary business is selling advertising space.
Arguably, all this kerfuffle has shown how important Twitter is, and how he was right to pay $44bn
However.
The Sunak Honeymoon Bounce (ooer missus) might have passed the peak of its passion. The trend that set in last summer would point to C30 L42 as about par, and Rishi isn't quite up to that yet.
And part of the reason for swingback is that governments in control of events put pain in years 1 and 2 of their term, followed by pleasure in years 3 and 4. (Kinky). Covid, Ukraine, Brexit and utter incompetence have meant that this government doesn't have that option.
Everyday now I log on to see what the new bad idea is. Maybe he'll post another meme grabbed from a far-right site. Or this time it will be gross violation of employment law. Everyday is a glorious suprise.
#TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1589009078197837825/photo/1
The idea that most of its value is as a medium to listen just isn't on his radar.
Yet the business he has just bought relies on advertisers for much of its revenue. It might be that he simply does not understand 'traditional' advertising and the adverts industry, and that has led him to make some rather significant early strategic mistakes.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/rishi-sunak-urged-sack-gavin-williamson-over-abusive-texts_uk_6366d248e4b05f221e7a95b9
It will be back in Parliament within weeks.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/20336773/dominic-raab-bill-of-rights-illegal-immigration/
If I'd loaned him money to help him buy it I'd be nervously checking the terms of those loans very carefully now.