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Sunak has had almost no impact on the election betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • Some echoes of last night’s report by the BBC on the weaponising of religion by the Trumper QAnon mob. Two out of the three nations able to end the world as we know it turning to apocalyptic crusading religion seems sub optimal.

    I wonder if Medvedev is going for the Gestapo or Goodfellas capo look with the leather coat? Bit of both maybe.


    To be fair, it's quite a nice coat. I do love a leather jacket.

    NO, THIS DOES NOT MAKE ME A NAZI.
    Me too.
    I just shelled out a fair bit for this, an Aero Leather ‘Barnstormer’. This does not make me Charles Lindbergh, who was unfortunately a bit of a Nazi.



  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    Some echoes of last night’s report by the BBC on the weaponising of religion by the Trumper QAnon mob. Two out of the three nations able to end the world as we know it turning to apocalyptic crusading religion seems sub optimal.

    I wonder if Medvedev is going for the Gestapo or Goodfellas capo look with the leather coat? Bit of both maybe.


    To be fair, it's quite a nice coat. I do love a leather jacket.

    NO, THIS DOES NOT MAKE ME A NAZI.
    Me too.
    I just shelled out a fair bit for this, an Aero Leather ‘Barnstormer’. This does not make me Charles Lindbergh, who was unfortunately a bit of a Nazi.



    And a sex pest, of course.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Lanka 20 short here
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Well, that was quite an over.

    141 is still very competitive with their attack, but they'll be a bit disappointed I think after their first five overs.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    41/5 off the last 7 overs.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    I wonder if Malan will be able to bat as well?

    Won't make matters easier if he can't given he's a left hander and would be able to exploit the short boundary.

    He's very good against spin too. England have clawed this back magnificently but the pressure here is immense.
    Assuming Hales doesn't get going, which I don't expect him to, they need a fabulous performance from Buttler and the No.3 (Moeen?) to get close.

    Two early wickets and they're in big, big trouble.

    Now, who gets the last over?

    Edit - Mark Wood, who gets hit for four off the first ball.

    Edit edit - and takes a wicket with the second!
    Sri Lanka really should have had at least 180 after that power play. 141 is well below par. One good performance with the bat and England will be fine.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    5th November, and walking around a shop with Christmas music playing!! 🙈
  • ydoethur said:

    Some echoes of last night’s report by the BBC on the weaponising of religion by the Trumper QAnon mob. Two out of the three nations able to end the world as we know it turning to apocalyptic crusading religion seems sub optimal.

    I wonder if Medvedev is going for the Gestapo or Goodfellas capo look with the leather coat? Bit of both maybe.


    To be fair, it's quite a nice coat. I do love a leather jacket.

    NO, THIS DOES NOT MAKE ME A NAZI.
    Me too.
    I just shelled out a fair bit for this, an Aero Leather ‘Barnstormer’. This does not make me Charles Lindbergh, who was unfortunately a bit of a Nazi.



    And a sex pest, of course.
    You inspired me to check Wiki.
    I hadn't realised he was such an active swordsman, 7 kids by 3 different German women. He certainly did his bit for the Aryan race.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664
    Sandpit said:

    5th November, and walking around a shop with Christmas music playing!! 🙈

    Clearly there is money in it, otherwise they wouldn’t do it. But good grief, it’s annoying. The Xmas ads on the telly really got under my skin. I’m not ready for it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839

    ydoethur said:

    Some echoes of last night’s report by the BBC on the weaponising of religion by the Trumper QAnon mob. Two out of the three nations able to end the world as we know it turning to apocalyptic crusading religion seems sub optimal.

    I wonder if Medvedev is going for the Gestapo or Goodfellas capo look with the leather coat? Bit of both maybe.


    To be fair, it's quite a nice coat. I do love a leather jacket.

    NO, THIS DOES NOT MAKE ME A NAZI.
    Me too.
    I just shelled out a fair bit for this, an Aero Leather ‘Barnstormer’. This does not make me Charles Lindbergh, who was unfortunately a bit of a Nazi.



    And a sex pest, of course.
    You inspired me to check Wiki.
    I hadn't realised he was such an active swordsman, 7 kids by 3 different German women. He certainly did his bit for the Aryan race.
    Obviously the jacket that did it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Some echoes of last night’s report by the BBC on the weaponising of religion by the Trumper QAnon mob. Two out of the three nations able to end the world as we know it turning to apocalyptic crusading religion seems sub optimal.

    I wonder if Medvedev is going for the Gestapo or Goodfellas capo look with the leather coat? Bit of both maybe.


    To be fair, it's quite a nice coat. I do love a leather jacket.

    NO, THIS DOES NOT MAKE ME A NAZI.
    Me too.
    I just shelled out a fair bit for this, an Aero Leather ‘Barnstormer’. This does not make me Charles Lindbergh, who was unfortunately a bit of a Nazi.



    And a sex pest, of course.
    You inspired me to check Wiki.
    I hadn't realised he was such an active swordsman, 7 kids by 3 different German women. He certainly did his bit for the Aryan race.
    Obviously the jacket that did it.
    Mr L, that really was TMI...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    ydoethur said:

    Some echoes of last night’s report by the BBC on the weaponising of religion by the Trumper QAnon mob. Two out of the three nations able to end the world as we know it turning to apocalyptic crusading religion seems sub optimal.

    I wonder if Medvedev is going for the Gestapo or Goodfellas capo look with the leather coat? Bit of both maybe.


    To be fair, it's quite a nice coat. I do love a leather jacket.

    NO, THIS DOES NOT MAKE ME A NAZI.
    Me too.
    I just shelled out a fair bit for this, an Aero Leather ‘Barnstormer’. This does not make me Charles Lindbergh, who was unfortunately a bit of a Nazi.



    And a sex pest, of course.
    You inspired me to check Wiki.
    I hadn't realised he was such an active swordsman, 7 kids by 3 different German women. He certainly did his bit for the Aryan race.
    And those are just the ones we know of...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    The nutters and swivel eyed loons in the Tory party thought they hit the jackpot when Liz Truss became PM.

    And she crashed and burned in spectacular fashion.

    They also got their dream Home Secretary (Cruella is even more batshit than Priti) and she is on the same trajectory.

    I wonder if they will ever join the dots...
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Some echoes of last night’s report by the BBC on the weaponising of religion by the Trumper QAnon mob. Two out of the three nations able to end the world as we know it turning to apocalyptic crusading religion seems sub optimal.

    I wonder if Medvedev is going for the Gestapo or Goodfellas capo look with the leather coat? Bit of both maybe.


    To be fair, it's quite a nice coat. I do love a leather jacket.

    NO, THIS DOES NOT MAKE ME A NAZI.
    Me too.
    I just shelled out a fair bit for this, an Aero Leather ‘Barnstormer’. This does not make me Charles Lindbergh, who was unfortunately a bit of a Nazi.



    And a sex pest, of course.
    You inspired me to check Wiki.
    I hadn't realised he was such an active swordsman, 7 kids by 3 different German women. He certainly did his bit for the Aryan race.
    And those are just the ones we know of...
    I'm visualising a Spirit of St Louis, Boys From Brazil mash up, lots of little leather-jacketed Charlies and Adolfs bouncing about the Amazon basin.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,662
    Sandpit said:

    5th November, and walking around a shop with Christmas music playing!! 🙈

    Quite wrong. We have to get through Poppymas first:

    https://twitter.com/giantpoppywatch/status/1587700544285589505?t=Sd9Qai5_zfVd4UaRQ6BWmQ&s=19
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    5th November, and walking around a shop with Christmas music playing!! 🙈

    Quite wrong. We have to get through Poppymas first:

    https://twitter.com/giantpoppywatch/status/1587700544285589505?t=Sd9Qai5_zfVd4UaRQ6BWmQ&s=19
    We have 1 day, 2 max, for everyone to put a poppy in their profile, or OGH will be in big trouble with the authorities.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,829
    Jonathan said:

    Sandpit said:

    5th November, and walking around a shop with Christmas music playing!! 🙈

    Clearly there is money in it, otherwise they wouldn’t do it. But good grief, it’s annoying. The Xmas ads on the telly really got under my skin. I’m not ready for it.
    Agreed, my niece is already asking for Xmas presents. I'm pretty sure this is why they do it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    darkage said:

    Some echoes of last night’s report by the BBC on the weaponising of religion by the Trumper QAnon mob. Two out of the three nations able to end the world as we know it turning to apocalyptic crusading religion seems sub optimal.

    I wonder if Medvedev is going for the Gestapo or Goodfellas capo look with the leather coat? Bit of both maybe.




    Its the war on woke. Not sure how it goes down with the domestic audience, but certainly helps with recruitment of supporters/sympathisers in the west.

    Is it just me, or is he making the play for the top job when Putin falls out a window?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Exc - UK and France were poised to sign historic £50m deal to put British officials on French beaches in bid to curb small boats crisis

    But France pulled it after Truss refused to say if Macron was friend or foe...

    With @thejonnyreilly

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/20330044/emmanuel-macron-channel-migrant-crossings/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    Some echoes of last night’s report by the BBC on the weaponising of religion by the Trumper QAnon mob. Two out of the three nations able to end the world as we know it turning to apocalyptic crusading religion seems sub optimal.

    I wonder if Medvedev is going for the Gestapo or Goodfellas capo look with the leather coat? Bit of both maybe.



    I’m getting the Nazi from Raiders vibes.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think the betting is balanced between NOM and a Labour majority, which implies a Labour lead of about 10-12% in an actual GE.

    Sounds about right to me.

    To get an overall majority they need a swing of 9%+ and to gain 124 seats.

    Not by any means impossible, but very difficult. Blair did it, but he was the first since Attlee, under very unusual circumstances. The only other party to win that many seats in one go were the Unionists under Baldwin in 1924 and 1931, and in both cases there were changes in the arrangements of other parties that made a considerable difference.
    Actually, that's the one thing I don't have a problem with as I think support for parties is a mile wide and an inch deep these days; people are far more fickle and willing to change their loyalties.

    It's just that Labour's leadership and programme haven't really come into focus yet, and I don't expect them to have better answers. To the extent their leadership has, it already trails Sunak. Once Tory DKs and WNVs are rallied during a GE campaign, it will look more complex.

    I think "time for a change" will get them a long way, but not all the way.
    The next election will be close. It will be interesting to see where we are once the post Truss novelty of Sunak wears off and he takes full ownership of the economic problems..
    It's refreshing to see your objectivity about it.

    FWIW, I could be wrong and it could be a Labour blowout. I am on both NOM/majority and, of course, I have my own preference - as you'd expect - but will keep my betting under review.
    I’ve never put much store in mid term polls. Labour start from a long way back, the fact they even have a chance of a majority is remarkable. 2024 could easily be 1992.

    Obviously I hope not, it would be better for everyone if the Tories lost. Essential for our democracy. Good for the country. Good for the Tories.
    Doesn't your last paragraph highlight why it is rather likely that the Tories will indeed lose? Those sentiments are rather widely held.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Nigelb said:

    Some echoes of last night’s report by the BBC on the weaponising of religion by the Trumper QAnon mob. Two out of the three nations able to end the world as we know it turning to apocalyptic crusading religion seems sub optimal.

    I wonder if Medvedev is going for the Gestapo or Goodfellas capo look with the leather coat? Bit of both maybe.



    I’m getting the Nazi from Raiders vibes.
    Does that make him an Ark-on?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Scott_xP said:

    Exc - UK and France were poised to sign historic £50m deal to put British officials on French beaches in bid to curb small boats crisis

    But France pulled it after Truss refused to say if Macron was friend or foe...

    With @thejonnyreilly

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/20330044/emmanuel-macron-channel-migrant-crossings/

    I don't know that that story makes the point you think it does.

    She shouldn't have said that, but if that was the reason it was pulled it is an incredibly petty and self defeating reason by Macron and France, especially given he will have been no stranger, as a politician, to saying things in an election campaign that would not go over well.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think the betting is balanced between NOM and a Labour majority, which implies a Labour lead of about 10-12% in an actual GE.

    Sounds about right to me.

    To get an overall majority they need a swing of 9%+ and to gain 124 seats.

    Not by any means impossible, but very difficult. Blair did it, but he was the first since Attlee, under very unusual circumstances. The only other party to win that many seats in one go were the Unionists under Baldwin in 1924 and 1931, and in both cases there were changes in the arrangements of other parties that made a considerable difference.
    Actually, that's the one thing I don't have a problem with as I think support for parties is a mile wide and an inch deep these days; people are far more fickle and willing to change their loyalties.

    It's just that Labour's leadership and programme haven't really come into focus yet, and I don't expect them to have better answers. To the extent their leadership has, it already trails Sunak. Once Tory DKs and WNVs are rallied during a GE campaign, it will look more complex.

    I think "time for a change" will get them a long way, but not all the way.
    The next election will be close. It will be interesting to see where we are once the post Truss novelty of Sunak wears off and he takes full ownership of the economic problems..
    It's refreshing to see your objectivity about it.

    FWIW, I could be wrong and it could be a Labour blowout. I am on both NOM/majority and, of course, I have my own preference - as you'd expect - but will keep my betting under review.
    Starmer has an opportunity to seal the deal with the electorate. If he takes that opportunity, if he presents himself as the necessary mix of realistic, ambitious and optimistic, them victory will appear to be inevitable, and that will be self-reinforcing.

    Can he take the opportunity?

    I reckon that if the roles were reversed, and Sunak was the leader of the opposition, we'd be a lot more confident of the opposition winning a majority at the next election.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think the betting is balanced between NOM and a Labour majority, which implies a Labour lead of about 10-12% in an actual GE.

    Sounds about right to me.

    To get an overall majority they need a swing of 9%+ and to gain 124 seats.

    Not by any means impossible, but very difficult. Blair did it, but he was the first since Attlee, under very unusual circumstances. The only other party to win that many seats in one go were the Unionists under Baldwin in 1924 and 1931, and in both cases there were changes in the arrangements of other parties that made a considerable difference.
    Actually, that's the one thing I don't have a problem with as I think support for parties is a mile wide and an inch deep these days; people are far more fickle and willing to change their loyalties.

    It's just that Labour's leadership and programme haven't really come into focus yet, and I don't expect them to have better answers. To the extent their leadership has, it already trails Sunak. Once Tory DKs and WNVs are rallied during a GE campaign, it will look more complex.

    I think "time for a change" will get them a long way, but not all the way.
    The next election will be close. It will be interesting to see where we are once the post Truss novelty of Sunak wears off and he takes full ownership of the economic problems..
    It's refreshing to see your objectivity about it.

    FWIW, I could be wrong and it could be a Labour blowout. I am on both NOM/majority and, of course, I have my own preference - as you'd expect - but will keep my betting under review.
    I’ve never put much store in mid term polls. Labour start from a long way back, the fact they even have a chance of a majority is remarkable. 2024 could easily be 1992.

    Obviously I hope not, it would be better for everyone if the Tories lost. Essential for our democracy. Good for the country. Good for the Tories.
    Doesn't your last paragraph highlight why it is rather likely that the Tories will indeed lose? Those sentiments are rather widely held.
    Major and Johnson both managed to make their governments seem new. Lots of new faces combined with a popular change of direction on the big issue of the day.

    Sunak is going to find that difficult, even if he's better than his predecessors. More Johnson 1.2 (we won't talk about version 1.1) than 2.0.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Sunak is in a pretty hopeless position. The Tories are truly screwed with the economic headwinds. Tories will be polling in the low 20s within 6 months.

    I still think at a GE they will get at least 175 seats. All this talk of the Tories being reduced to a handful of seats (though fun to talk about) is for the birds.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362
    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tentative good news from Ukraine overnight, as it does appear that the Russian military withdrawal from Kherson City is genuine.

    The worry is that the city is booby-trapped or full of hidden soldiers, or that Putin intends to flood the area downstream of the Kakhovka power station by bursting the dam.

    He really won't do that. The reservoir behind that dam supplies nearly 90% of the Crimea's fresh water. If they blew the dam the Crimea would need to be evacuated.

    Sri Lanka win the battle of the anthems. Hope that's it.
    You’d think that it was obvious to the Russians, of the need to maintain the Crimean water supply - but if they’re on the retreat they won’t care. They’ll blame “the Ukranian sabotage” of the dam, for the need to depopulate Crimea and escalate the war further.
    The Crimean canal was blocked for most of the last 8 years. A problem for agriculture but not for civil use.

    Flooding would mostly affect the left, Russian held bank, but would make a more significant barrier. It works both ways, and Mikolayaiv and Odessa would be safer too from a renewed Russian attack.

    It does sound as if the Russian perimeter in Kherson is well dug in, and higher quality troops even if the city of Kherson is abandoned. It may be just that a hollow shell rather than defence in depth is better logistically for Russia.
    Looking at the map one of the big mysteries for which I’m sure there is a valid reason, is why Ukraine hasn’t made a play for the big sweep of Russian held land between Zaporizhzhia and Mariupol, cutting off the Russians to the West. It looks so tempting and most is sparsely populated.

    I can only suppose it’s either logistically / militarily difficult to do, or is part of the plan once Kherson is back under control.
    Such an advance would massively extend the length of the front and it would create the risk of the advancing troops being cut off by counterattacks from east and west.

    It's the obvious next step once the Russians are driven out of the right bank of the Dnipro, though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Exc - UK and France were poised to sign historic £50m deal to put British officials on French beaches in bid to curb small boats crisis

    But France pulled it after Truss refused to say if Macron was friend or foe...

    With @thejonnyreilly

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/20330044/emmanuel-macron-channel-migrant-crossings/

    I don't know that that story makes the point you think it does.

    She shouldn't have said that, but if that was the reason it was pulled it is an incredibly petty and self defeating reason by Macron and France, especially given he will have been no stranger, as a politician, to saying things in an election campaign that would not go over well.
    He is incredibly petty and frequently self-defeating.

    Which is why it was particularly important she didn't say it about him.

    She could have said it about Biden and he would have shrugged it off. Not Macron.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    This thread has

    been brought to an abrupt stop by a slow bowling feast

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437
    edited November 2022

    Some echoes of last night’s report by the BBC on the weaponising of religion by the Trumper QAnon mob. Two out of the three nations able to end the world as we know it turning to apocalyptic crusading religion seems sub optimal.

    I wonder if Medvedev is going for the Gestapo or Goodfellas capo look with the leather coat? Bit of both maybe.




    Stockings and suspenders underneath like Herr Flick?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090
    Sandpit said:

    5th November, and walking around a shop with Christmas music playing!! 🙈

    They should be playing Guy Fawkes music! Like… um… you know…
This discussion has been closed.