Sunak has had almost no impact on the election betting – politicalbetting.com
Sunak has had almost no impact on the election betting – politicalbetting.com
It is early days yet of course but so far Sunak does not seem to have had any impact on the next general election betting. Maybe this is because his arrival has been what the market has expected for well over a year.
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Their best chance was if Johnson quit about 6-12 months before the election in favour of somebody sane, coherent and competent (probably still Sunak) who then got a polling bounce as Starmer floundered against him.
Unfortunately first Johnson blew himself up over Paterson and Partygate and then the membership committed the most epochal act of mass suicide since doomsday cults went out of fashion by electing Truss to replace him despite the fact she was manifestly totally unsuited to the role.
Under those circumstances any chance Sunak had of being a fresh start in the eyes of the public was gone, and with it, their chances at the next election.
Seems unlikely Labour will win outright given the constraints they face, but you never know.
The worry is that the city is booby-trapped or full of hidden soldiers, or that Putin intends to flood the area downstream of the Kakhovka power station by bursting the dam.
Those numbers sound far too high to me. I suspect the asylum system is being operated with very little rigour.
That said, our solutions are similar in some respects. I agree that it's unfair to be sent to Rwanda before a verdict is reached with no prospect of return. What I suggest is for claims to be processed there (or somewhere else overseas) before successful claimants are transported to the UK. That way, those with false claims never make it.
It could potentially be done via our embassies. If you want asylum in the UK, apply via the British embassy nearest to you. They process your claim there, and when you get asylum, the process is arranged. Genuine asylum seekers benefit from not having a hellish journey to get here, fake ones there's no point in even applying. There should be no asylum processing on UK shores.
Must be a widespread problem for people in small flats and low energy usage after the government intervention.
Big one is how big and persistent Sunak's honeymoon bounce is. Given how much of the 30+ point lead was driven by "OMG, there are nutters in Downing Street", that should be good for Sunak.
Next one is how the economy pans out over the next two years. The future's not ours to see (yet) but it's not looking good. And "yes, my party elected a nutter as PM, but I'm fixing the damage" is a tough sell.
Next, how much classic swingback will there be?
Finally, how will the tactical dynamics of 2024 be different to 2019?
https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1588604141500522496?t=6xpSGThKLaQWpsvGGXhFBg&s=19
Going back to first principals, the system is supposed to be a temporary refuge for those persecuted in the own country or fleeing war. It was not designed for the volume of migration we see today, nor a global travel and media world that makes a few Western countries appear a very attractive destination for billions of people.
The idea that anyone arriving unconventionally from France is worthy of asylum, seems preposterous to many Brits. France is a safe country, signatory to many of the same conventions as the UK. With very few exceptions, perhaps an opposition politician arrested who turns up at the British Embassy requesting asylum, no-one arrivng from France should be considered eligible.
I agree that accepting applications only abroad, and guaranteeing anyone arriving by boat either a free flight home or to a third country, or detention at a military base until a decision can be made on their case, doesn’t sound unreasonable - to those genuinely fleeing from persecution. Alongside efforts to support war zones, as the UK did well in Syria a decade ago.
"Leaving the EU has increased administration, cost + pressure on on-time deliveries, which, at times, has + continues to cause lost production days." 2/3
Toyoda Gosei's UK closure first flagged up in April 2021. It had moved some of its production to its main site in the Czech Republic which will become a central hub for production following factory closures in Germany and the UK. 3/3 https://www.business-live.co.uk/manufacturing/car-parts-supplier-toyoda-gosei-20480709
Sri Lanka win the battle of the anthems. Hope that's it.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/60119102
Doesn't suggest the peninsula would need evacuating if he blew it, although it might have unfortunate effects for him in other ways.
However, what scale can they manufacture it on?
Sounds about right to me.
Which would probably have happened anyway, TBF.
If we, rapidly, processed those claims with lots of staff and found that, say, 70% qualified , what then?
The unpalatable truth is that under current rules the difficulty of getting here to claim asylum is the only real tool we have to control the numbers being given asylum.
The post-Apartheid SA governments have not been as good as one might have hoped in the 1990s, have they?
Not by any means impossible, but very difficult. Blair did it, but he was the first since Attlee, under very unusual circumstances. The only other party to win that many seats in one go were the Unionists under Baldwin in 1924 and 1931, and in both cases there were changes in the arrangements of other parties that made a considerable difference.
It would have been a near-miracle if a decent government system had emerged from that. The issues around the likes of Zuma and Ramaphosa were always likely to emerge unless Mandela had achieved extraordinary political longevity and impeccable judgement (which he didn't).
They're not going to win if they keep bowling like this.
https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2022/nov/04/joe-rogan-school-litter-boxes-kids-furries-gender
'Joe Rogan has acknowledged spreading misinformation after he suggested that elementary schools were installing litter boxes for students who “identify” as furries.'
An entire generation of bowlers have just been utterly screwed.
Surrey have today signed Azhar Mahmood, Jade Dernbach and Jim Troughton to the coaching staff full-time.
Dernbach returns to the Club as an Assistant Coach and his primary responsibility will be leading the Surrey Second XI as well as offering
bowling expertise to the whole squad. Having retired in 2021 after a long and successful career with the Club, the former Surrey T20 Captain spent the 2022 season in north London with Middlesex as a Consultant Fast Bowling Coach.
https://www.kiaoval.com/surrey-sign-three-to-coaching-staff/
Silverwood’s revenge is nailed on.
Anything over 130 will be a tough ask.
I would ask for an example of an African country with a well-run government; then realised that the UK isn't a shining example of that at the moment.
It's just that Labour's leadership and programme haven't really come into focus yet, and I don't expect them to have better answers. To the extent their leadership has, it already trails Sunak. Once Tory DKs and WNVs are rallied during a GE campaign, it will look more complex.
I think "time for a change" will get them a long way, but not all the way.
They just didn't get it. Bonkers.
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1588792898300317696?s=46&t=wpMe0O7pWcjn5g0suBtNqA
The unpleasant dilemma we find ourselves in as a country is that public services and agencies have got themselves in an abject state because of a decade of cuts and
desperately need proper funding, at the same time as the UK finds itself running out of money and needing to save more.
In this case enforcement of environmental regulations. If you don’t have enough capacity to catch the polluters, they keep polluting because they know they’ll get away with it.
So the sample is small, but the precedent suggests that the situation won't be as difficult for Labour as you suggest. Strange things happen after very long periods of unbroken dominance by one party. People come to the conclusion that "enough is enough" en masse.
You can throw in 1964 and 2010 (both held after 13 years), and while neither resulted in significant majorities, both did show very significant gains by the winning party. The governing party had clearly run out of steam, and the government changed colour.
So, in the last 100 years, the only four general elections contested after a party had governed for 13 or more years all resulted in a change of government, and in three of the four the incoming party had a majority.
Big swings at the end of a long period in government are the norm, not the exception.
Personally I would expect Labour to be just short of a majority. They may do better but Starmer is a dull figure, very unlike Wilson or Blair, and I think he will be voted for with resignation rather than enthusiasm.
But, I could easily be completely wrong. As pointed out upthread, a lot depends on the economy and I don't see how that gets turned around.
Can't see England chasing that down unless Moeen does something exceptional.
That's how boring Boring Old Starmer is.
Back in credit now due to government scheme. You just have to remember to submit a reading every month.
FWIW, I could be wrong and it could be a Labour blowout. I am on both NOM/majority and, of course, I have my own preference - as you'd expect - but will keep my betting under review.
There is a residual support for Russia in much of Africa because of the USSR support for liberation movements against the colonial powers. Misplaced because times have changed and Russia is now a fascist colonising genocidal state, but it does take time for memories to fade.
Once the mid terms are done I would personally go “nuclear” with the sanctions regime. Anyone providing arms to Russia should face sanctions as severe as those imposed on Russia directly. Anyone buying its hydrocarbons should be blocked from the international trade of energy products.
Obviously I hope not, it would be better for everyone if the Tories lost. Essential for our democracy. Good for the country. Good for the Tories.
At present I expect a minority labour administration but it does come down to just who is trusted on the economy
It should not be forgotten Starmer supported the cancellation of the NI rise and the reduction in the standard rate to 19% and apparently he is playing games with the triple lock by attempting next week to force the government to affirm pension and benefits will rise by the rate of inflation, which of course boxes him in on future attempts to abolish it
He would also bend to union demands on pay rises at the cost of investment into public services, much as seen by Sturgeon this week, and has promised the TUC to repeal all trade union legislation since 2016
He is utterly incapable of facing difficult decisions whereas I do see in Sunak/ Hunt politicians who will take difficult decisions and can be trusted on the economy
I wonder if Medvedev is going for the Gestapo or Goodfellas capo look with the leather coat? Bit of both maybe.
Flooding would mostly affect the left, Russian held bank, but would make a more significant barrier. It works both ways, and Mikolayaiv and Odessa would be safer too from a renewed Russian attack.
It does sound as if the Russian perimeter in Kherson is well dug in, and higher quality troops even if the city of Kherson is abandoned. It may be just that a hollow shell rather than defence in depth is better logistically for Russia.
The big differences would be on nationalisation, EU/Brexit, voting reform and a few libertarian policies like legalising cannabis.
Common language
Complementary needs (they need technical help, the UK needs people and room to exercise)
Helps project power into the South Atlantic
A bit of imagination and effort could have lead to a very fruitful partnership.
NO, THIS DOES NOT MAKE ME A NAZI.
I can only suppose it’s either logistically / militarily difficult to do, or is part of the plan once Kherson is back under control.
https://www.theafricareport.com/187546/russia-africa-how-the-kremlin-places-its-pawns-for-arms-sales-mercenaries-agents-of-influence/
Worth noting too that until 1962 a quarter of the world's population, much from Africa and the Subcontinent could move here freely.
It isn't that mass movements of peoples started recently, the problem is that recently we have attempted to restrict movements that were historically relatively free. With good reason perhaps, but it is a historic novelty.
Why is he backing the triple lock and cancelling all union legislation since 2016
The Autumn statement on the 17th will show a government taking difficult decisions and I expect Sunak/ Hunt to be more trusted with the economy as a result
As an aside Starmer would have cancelled the £400 fuel payment consumers are presently receiving
The right strategy for the opposition is to be selective on how they differentiate themselves. We are two years from an election. The fact the Tories borrow Labour policy underlines that.
Sunak/Hunt are clearing up their own mess. Should we be grateful? No
Rishi Sunak says state cannot be expected to 'fix every problem' as he vows to be honest with voters about scale of challenge ahead.
He's says he's 'confident' public will judge Autumn budget to be 'fair & compassionate'
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/state-cant-fix-all-your-problems-says-rishi-sunak-6vlw6q3bw
“The only difference between Compassionate Conservatism and Conservatism is that under Compassionate Conservatism they tell you they are not going to help you but they are really sorry about it” ©️Tony Blair
https://twitter.com/Bill_Esterson/status/1588807308389232640/photo/1
Edit - I am a genius, although I wish I'd said it eight overs ago.
Con and Lab have good reason to avoid policy apart from minor retail special offers. They have no major disagreements about policy; and they have no money.
An important culture change may be that it's now OK not to make ridiculous promises about no tax rises (first time since 1992) and golden elephants for pensioners. No-one will believe them and it damages credibility. Good.
(The same people doing the shrieking seem oblivious to when China or Russia get involved with those countries.)
But as you say, does suggest this target is already going to be very tough for England.
Won't make matters easier if he can't given he's a left hander and would be able to exploit the short boundary.
https://ifs.org.uk/articles/conservative-candidates-tax-plans-are-increasingly-similar-though-still-differ-scale-and
It would be good to get away from the rate fetish, but I'm not sure we're there yet.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/60119102
Next time after 14 years and a shed load of chaos, the Tories are tired. They should lose. It will be healthy for democracy if there is change.
It is my fervent hope he is shown the door by his constituents at the next GE along with other fellow dinosaurs in the ERG
Two early wickets and they're in big, big trouble.
Now, who gets the last over?
Edit - Mark Wood, who gets hit for four off the first ball.
Edit edit - and takes a wicket with the second!