Sunak’s big gamble: Abandoning campaign pledges – politicalbetting.com

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Sunak’s big gamble: Abandoning campaign pledges – politicalbetting.com

BREAKING: No 10 announces bonfire of pledges – Rishi Sunak will “take the time” to see what is “deliverable or possible” with economic backdrop.“We’re looking at the PM’s leadership campaign pledges and working out whether now is the right time to bring them forward.”

Read the full story here

Ishmael_Z

He was for it before he was against it

And it was a different campaign, he didn't have time to make pledges this time round

wooliedyed

Given Starmer has done exactly the same i dont see it being a biggie

Slackbladder

We're in the shit, everyone know's we're in the shit.

The most important thing is getting out of the shit.

SandyRentool

Pledges = bullshit

What a surprise.

Pulpstar

Sunak lost the leadership campaign against Truss so I don't think he has to stick to anything he said in that campaign. It was a political lifetime ago.
He was voted in by acclamation in the subsequent contest. I can't remember him saying much publicly in the (Short) campaign he won.

Sandpit

I reckon the BoE chickens out again and goes for 50bps.

Alphabet_Soup

Sunak's "election pledges" were, of course, decisively rejected by the "electorate" so he doesn't owe anything to anyone. He's a free agent (apart from those pesky markets).

"Election pledges" in inverted commas because in the real world they are little better than after-dinner speculation about "what I'd do if I were World King".

ETA. Sorry ... Pulpstar said the same thing first.

Sandpit

Oh topic, he’s a politician - he does and says whatever he thinks his audience wants him to do and say, in order to get himself in power, and remain there for as long as possible.

Slackbladder

Sandpit said:

I reckon the BoE chickens out again and goes for 50bps.

Pretty disastrous if they do. It needs to be more.

Sean_F

Apologies for going off topic, but it looks as if the New Hampshire Senate seat is now in play, with two polls putting Bolduc just ahead. If the Republicans take it, then they take the Senate.

wooliedyed

Sky report assassination attempt on Imran Khan.

Alphabet_Soup

Slackbladder said:

Sandpit said:

I reckon the BoE chickens out again and goes for 50bps.

Pretty disastrous if they do. It needs to be more.

They're going to raise real interest from -8% to -7.5% and you're not happy?

OnlyLivingBoy

Sunak may be the second Richmond MP to have got the Tory leadership batton too soon for his own good.

MaxPB

Sandpit said:

I reckon the BoE chickens out again and goes for 50bps.

Yes, seems like the market has priced that in this morning as well. I reckon 50bp as well, it should be 1pp.

Sandpit

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

I reckon the BoE chickens out again and goes for 50bps.

Yes, seems like the market has priced that in this morning as well. I reckon 50bp as well, it should be 1pp.

The worry is that the market has priced in 75bps. Yes it should really be 1pp.

kinabalu

Sandpit said:

I reckon the BoE chickens out again and goes for 50bps.

I don't really go with all the slagging off the BoE. They aren't great, bit timid and behind the curve, but if we're going to cast around for a blame figure for the mess we're in I'd more go with the government. They've been shocking for the last few years.

But even that's unfair imo. We're transitioning out of a long period of near zero interest rates and QE propping us up after the financial crash. That was bound to be painful, then add the pandemic and Putin on top and you have a dire situation - stressed public finances and inflation and a poor growth outlook. 3 lemons.

Pulpstar

The BoE might as well go for 0.75 - the mortgage market won't budge on 0.5 as everyone knows it'll have to go up more later.
Most mortgagees will be better off with 0.75 medicine now, not later.

OnlyLivingBoy

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

I reckon the BoE chickens out again and goes for 50bps.

Yes, seems like the market has priced that in this morning as well. I reckon 50bp as well, it should be 1pp.

I'm sticking with a 6-3 vote for 75.

Pulpstar

DLS is really well calibrated for T20 I think - this target for South Africa is just right.

williamglenn

I didn't realise quite how much history there is between Alastair Campbell and the Albanian PM.

This piece was written in 2017:

https://exit.al/en/2017/08/01/a-response-to-alastair-campbell/

...Campbell dares to praise one of the most corrupt initiatives of Rama’s entire first term as prime minister, the illegal destruction of the monumental Qemal Stafa stadium, the transfer of public land to a private corporation, and a completely opaque procurement process that featured all the familiar names from Rama’s clientele.

BartholomewRoberts

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

I reckon the BoE chickens out again and goes for 50bps.

Yes, seems like the market has priced that in this morning as well. I reckon 50bp as well, it should be 1pp.

I'm sticking with a 6-3 vote for 75.

It should be 100, but I expect 5-3-1 in favour of 50.

MaxPB

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

I reckon the BoE chickens out again and goes for 50bps.

Yes, seems like the market has priced that in this morning as well. I reckon 50bp as well, it should be 1pp.

I'm sticking with a 6-3 vote for 75.

I reckon 4-3-2 - 0.5, 0.75 and 0.25 respectively. Bailey has stacked the deck with morons and supplicants, one of them recently said there's no inflation problem, he has removed hawks and replaced them with the most dovish of doves.

Pulpstar

Pulpstar said:

DLS is really well calibrated for T20 I think - this target for South Africa is just right.

The 7nb 6 sequence at the back end of the Pakistan innings might end up being the difference mind.

Sandpit

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

I reckon the BoE chickens out again and goes for 50bps.

I don't really go with all the slagging off the BoE. They aren't great, bit timid and behind the curve, but if we're going to cast around for a blame figure for the mess we're in I'd more go with the government. They've been shocking for the last few years.

But even that's unfair imo. We're transitioning out of a long period of near zero interest rates and QE propping us up after the financial crash. That was bound to be painful, then add the pandemic and Putin on top and you have a dire situation - stressed public finances and inflation and a poor growth outlook. 3 lemons.

The problem was not ticking up rates slowly over the past decade. A quarter-point every six months since 2015 or 2016, and we’d be in a much stronger position now.

Governments have loved rates being zero, they’ve been able to borrow and print almost at will, with seemingly none of the predicted inflation coming to fruition, and all of them have done just that. Well now the bill has come in, and the next few years are going to be horrible as those bills need to be paid.

numbertwelve

I have a horrible feeling it’s going to be 0.5. It should be 1.

MaxPB

Pulpstar said:

The BoE might as well go for 0.75 - the mortgage market won't budge on 0.5 as everyone knows it'll have to go up more later.
Most mortgagees will be better off with 0.75 medicine now, not later.

Even at 1pp mortgage rates will drop, just because peak inflation expectations will fall and mortgage rates are being kept artificially high by banks looking to make a quick buck.

numbertwelve

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

I reckon the BoE chickens out again and goes for 50bps.

I don't really go with all the slagging off the BoE. They aren't great, bit timid and behind the curve, but if we're going to cast around for a blame figure for the mess we're in I'd more go with the government. They've been shocking for the last few years.

But even that's unfair imo. We're transitioning out of a long period of near zero interest rates and QE propping us up after the financial crash. That was bound to be painful, then add the pandemic and Putin on top and you have a dire situation - stressed public finances and inflation and a poor growth outlook. 3 lemons.

A lot of this is very obviously down to external factors and that’s why I thought, pre-Trussterf**k, the government would get some element of benefit of the doubt and would, provided things managed to stabilise in time for the next GE, have a chance of neutralising the issue.

Of course what actually happened is that Truss made the problem even worse, and that is a much trickier thing to come back from.

Sean_F

wooliedyed said:

Sky report assassination attempt on Imran Khan.

The Indian sub-continent is an incredibly dangerous place to be a politician.

Sandpit

“Imran Khan, the former Pakistani prime minister, has reportedly been injured in a shooting attack targeting his supporters as they marched on the capital Islamabad.

“Unidentified gunmen opened fire on the vehicle carrying Mr Khan as it passed through Wazirabad, Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper reported on Thursday.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/03/imran-khan-pakistans-former-prime-minister-injured-shooting/

Doesn’t sound good.

BartholomewRoberts

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

The BoE might as well go for 0.75 - the mortgage market won't budge on 0.5 as everyone knows it'll have to go up more later.
Most mortgagees will be better off with 0.75 medicine now, not later.

Even at 1pp mortgage rates will drop, just because peak inflation expectations will fall and mortgage rates are being kept artificially high by banks looking to make a quick buck.

It should be a 1pp rise, with passive QT continuing, but active QT suspended until the market stabilises (and probably forever realistically).

OnlyLivingBoy

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

I reckon the BoE chickens out again and goes for 50bps.

Yes, seems like the market has priced that in this morning as well. I reckon 50bp as well, it should be 1pp.

I'm sticking with a 6-3 vote for 75.

I reckon 4-3-2 - 0.5, 0.75 and 0.25 respectively. Bailey has stacked the deck with morons and supplicants, one of them recently said there's no inflation problem, he has removed hawks and replaced them with the most dovish of doves.

Bailey doesn't appoint the externals, you should blame the Chancellor if you disagree with those appointments!

Pulpstar

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

I reckon the BoE chickens out again and goes for 50bps.

Yes, seems like the market has priced that in this morning as well. I reckon 50bp as well, it should be 1pp.

I'm sticking with a 6-3 vote for 75.

I reckon 4-3-2 - 0.5, 0.75 and 0.25 respectively. Bailey has stacked the deck with morons and supplicants, one of them recently said there's no inflation problem, he has removed hawks and replaced them with the most dovish of doves.

Bailey doesn't appoint the externals, you should blame the Chancellor if you disagree with those appointments!

Which one ?

MaxPB

BartholomewRoberts said:

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

The BoE might as well go for 0.75 - the mortgage market won't budge on 0.5 as everyone knows it'll have to go up more later.
Most mortgagees will be better off with 0.75 medicine now, not later.

Even at 1pp mortgage rates will drop, just because peak inflation expectations will fall and mortgage rates are being kept artificially high by banks looking to make a quick buck.

It should be a 1pp rise, with passive QT continuing, but active QT suspended until the market stabilises (and probably forever realistically).

Tbf, the active QT is only on short dated bonds anyway. Yields on those have been falling despite the BoE holding auctions alongside the DMO.

kinabalu

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Sunak may be the second Richmond MP to have got the Tory leadership batton too soon for his own good.

Yes, in all the relief about him not being palpably unfit for office like Johnson and Truss - a relief I felt as much as anybody btw - it's easy to forget how young and inexperienced a politician he is. And before that, just those few years in IB and hedge fund world. I think he might struggle.

BartholomewRoberts

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

I reckon the BoE chickens out again and goes for 50bps.

Yes, seems like the market has priced that in this morning as well. I reckon 50bp as well, it should be 1pp.

I'm sticking with a 6-3 vote for 75.

I reckon 4-3-2 - 0.5, 0.75 and 0.25 respectively. Bailey has stacked the deck with morons and supplicants, one of them recently said there's no inflation problem, he has removed hawks and replaced them with the most dovish of doves.

Bailey doesn't appoint the externals, you should blame the Chancellor if you disagree with those appointments!

What's the internal/external split on how they've been voting though? They seem to have 3 people who aren't massive doves, with 1 who is ridiculously dovish, hence my 5-3-1 split forecast. Not sure who's internal and who's external in that though.

Pulpstar

Anyway here we go.

kinabalu

BartholomewRoberts said:

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

The BoE might as well go for 0.75 - the mortgage market won't budge on 0.5 as everyone knows it'll have to go up more later.
Most mortgagees will be better off with 0.75 medicine now, not later.

Even at 1pp mortgage rates will drop, just because peak inflation expectations will fall and mortgage rates are being kept artificially high by banks looking to make a quick buck.

It should be a 1pp rise, with passive QT continuing, but active QT suspended until the market stabilises (and probably forever realistically).

It's a great pity you're not on there to tell them this.

Foxy

Interesting reports of Kherson. Flags and Russian positions disappearing.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1588100657394745344?t=nl6iHVMa9pp0XzU4J8RERA&s=19

BartholomewRoberts

75bps

Too low, but better than I expected.

Sandpit

🐓 🐓 🐓 75bps it is 🐓 🐓 🐓

Slackbladder

0.75- minimum it could have been really.

londonpubman

0.75%, surprised it wasn't less!

MaxPB

At least it's no 50bp, think we'd be looking at parity within days.

Sandpit

Foxy said:

Interesting reports of Kherson. Flags and Russian positions disappearing.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1588100657394745344?t=nl6iHVMa9pp0XzU4J8RERA&s=19

Looks like Kherson city, is now starting to be abandoned by the enemy. Great news.

Pulpstar

7 0.75%
1 0.5%
1 0.25%

Sandpit

7-2 the decision.

MaxPB

7-2, but market still not convinced the BoE is going to pick up the pace above the minimum required action.

MaxPB

Pulpstar said:

7 0.75%
1 0.5%
1 0.25%

Who the fuck was that moron at 0.25%?!

Pulpstar

Silvana Tenreyro 0.25% lol

carnforth

Bank says peak interest rates likely to be less than market expectations.

Sandpit

Pound still falling, that decision was priced in.

kinabalu

numbertwelve said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

I reckon the BoE chickens out again and goes for 50bps.

I don't really go with all the slagging off the BoE. They aren't great, bit timid and behind the curve, but if we're going to cast around for a blame figure for the mess we're in I'd more go with the government. They've been shocking for the last few years.

But even that's unfair imo. We're transitioning out of a long period of near zero interest rates and QE propping us up after the financial crash. That was bound to be painful, then add the pandemic and Putin on top and you have a dire situation - stressed public finances and inflation and a poor growth outlook. 3 lemons.

A lot of this is very obviously down to external factors and that’s why I thought, pre-Trussterf**k, the government would get some element of benefit of the doubt and would, provided things managed to stabilise in time for the next GE, have a chance of neutralising the issue.

Of course what actually happened is that Truss made the problem even worse, and that is a much trickier thing to come back from.

Yep, that's probably screwed them. When Labour (as they will) repeatedly fire the bullet with "The Tories crashed the economy!" engraved upon it there'll be enough truth there for it to maim and kill.

numbertwelve

Blimey. BOE warning of longest recession in history since reliable records began.

Pulpstar

Swati Dhingra 0.5%

carnforth

williamglenn said:

I didn't realise quite how much history there is between Alastair Campbell and the Albanian PM.

This piece was written in 2017:

https://exit.al/en/2017/08/01/a-response-to-alastair-campbell/

...Campbell dares to praise one of the most corrupt initiatives of Rama’s entire first term as prime minister, the illegal destruction of the monumental Qemal Stafa stadium, the transfer of public land to a private corporation, and a completely opaque procurement process that featured all the familiar names from Rama’s clientele.

I wonder what Campbell made of this Remain poster:

MaxPB

Well done to @OnlyLivingBoy, called it almost perfectly with the 6-3!

BartholomewRoberts

Pulpstar said:

7 0.75%
1 0.5%
1 0.25%

I got the 1 right. Utterly ridiculous but also foreseeable for that 1.

Glad 4 were less dovish than I expected.

MaxPB

Sandpit said:

Pound still falling, that decision was priced in.

Mostly recovered now on the basis of the 7-2 decision but falling on the basis of Bailey screwing it all up again, what a fucking idiot he is.

Slackbladder

numbertwelve said:

Blimey. BOE warning of longest recession in history since reliable records began.

Yep, we're in the shit.

OnlyLivingBoy

MaxPB said:

Well done to @OnlyLivingBoy, called it almost perfectly with the 6-3!

Thanks. I got it wrong last time. Predicting this kind of stuff is my job so I am relieved!

Driver

Pulpstar said:

Silvana Tenreyro 0.25% lol

LSE. Figures.

Driver

Pulpstar said:

Swati Dhingra 0.5%

Also LSE. How many LSE profs are on the MPC?

Heathener

Sterling is back at Liz Truss levels:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cx250jmk4e7t/pound-sterling-gbp

House sales to fall by more than a quarter to lowest level in a decade:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/house-sales-fall-quarter-lowest-level-decade/


And another dirty sleazy tory MP is rumbled:
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-mp-andrew-bridgen-should-be-suspended-for-failing-to-declare-paid-work-and-threatening-commissioner-standards-committee-recommends-12737060

1992-7 only 100x worse with the economy and living standards tanking, going the opposite way from the Major years.

The next GE result will be cataclysmic for the tories.

numbertwelve

2 year recession forecast.

Sandpit

“Something up in Kherson. 🇷🇺 Russian flag’s come down from admin building, tho Kremlin propagandists say flags still fly over other buildings. Video shared in closed Telegram group appears to show Kherson residents on a bus cheering as they pass an abandoned Russian checkpoint.

“Mayor of Oleshky, on east bank of Kherson, writes on Telegram that residents on the west bank say Russian troops have abandoned checkpoints in settlements of Chornobayivka, Stepanivka, and Bilozerka, and in Kherson city the number of military personnel has visually decreased.”
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1588132518011850753

Awesome news if the withdrawal is confirmed!

Alphabet_Soup

carnforth said:

williamglenn said:

I didn't realise quite how much history there is between Alastair Campbell and the Albanian PM.

This piece was written in 2017:

https://exit.al/en/2017/08/01/a-response-to-alastair-campbell/

...Campbell dares to praise one of the most corrupt initiatives of Rama’s entire first term as prime minister, the illegal destruction of the monumental Qemal Stafa stadium, the transfer of public land to a private corporation, and a completely opaque procurement process that featured all the familiar names from Rama’s clientele.

I wonder what Campbell made of this Remain poster:

Imagine paying £750 for a room at the Langham and finding that parked outside your window.

Leon

The Russian withdrawal from Kherson looks a bit too easy for Ukraine. Hmm

kinabalu

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

I reckon the BoE chickens out again and goes for 50bps.

I don't really go with all the slagging off the BoE. They aren't great, bit timid and behind the curve, but if we're going to cast around for a blame figure for the mess we're in I'd more go with the government. They've been shocking for the last few years.

But even that's unfair imo. We're transitioning out of a long period of near zero interest rates and QE propping us up after the financial crash. That was bound to be painful, then add the pandemic and Putin on top and you have a dire situation - stressed public finances and inflation and a poor growth outlook. 3 lemons.

The problem was not ticking up rates slowly over the past decade. A quarter-point every six months since 2015 or 2016, and we’d be in a much stronger position now.

Governments have loved rates being zero, they’ve been able to borrow and print almost at will, with seemingly none of the predicted inflation coming to fruition, and all of them have done just that. Well now the bill has come in, and the next few years are going to be horrible as those bills need to be paid.

Agree to an extent with the underlying sentiment. But the BoE brief is inflation and there wasn't any to speak of for a long time. As for the politicians they don't look beyond elections - and for good measure our lot got bogged down in the Brexit swamp for years on end. We just don't have a long term or a "planning" mindset when it comes to any aspect of economic policy.

CarlottaVance

Heathener said:

The next GE result will be cataclysmic for the tories.

We all know that’s what you want, but some voters may have different views:

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/03/red-wall-voters-willing-to-give-rishi-sunak-a-chance-according-to-focus-group

BartholomewRoberts

Leon said:

The Russian withdrawal from Kherson looks a bit too easy for Ukraine. Hmm

In six months time you'll be saying that about their withdrawal from Sevastopol.

Truly the most catastrophic self-inflicted blunder by a so-called "major power" in many decades.

Sandpit

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

The Russian withdrawal from Kherson looks a bit too easy for Ukraine. Hmm

In six months time you'll be saying that about their withdrawal from Sevastopol.

Truly the most catastrophic self-inflicted blunder by a so-called "major power" in many decades.

The withdrawal from Sevastopol, back over what’s left of the Kerch Bridge, is going to be a very good day indeed.

BartholomewRoberts

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

I reckon the BoE chickens out again and goes for 50bps.

I don't really go with all the slagging off the BoE. They aren't great, bit timid and behind the curve, but if we're going to cast around for a blame figure for the mess we're in I'd more go with the government. They've been shocking for the last few years.

But even that's unfair imo. We're transitioning out of a long period of near zero interest rates and QE propping us up after the financial crash. That was bound to be painful, then add the pandemic and Putin on top and you have a dire situation - stressed public finances and inflation and a poor growth outlook. 3 lemons.

The problem was not ticking up rates slowly over the past decade. A quarter-point every six months since 2015 or 2016, and we’d be in a much stronger position now.

Governments have loved rates being zero, they’ve been able to borrow and print almost at will, with seemingly none of the predicted inflation coming to fruition, and all of them have done just that. Well now the bill has come in, and the next few years are going to be horrible as those bills need to be paid.

Agree to an extent with the underlying sentiment. But the BoE brief is inflation and there wasn't any to speak of for a long time. As for the politicians they don't look beyond elections - and for good measure our lot got bogged down in the Brexit swamp for years on end. We just don't have a long term or a "planning" mindset when it comes to any aspect of economic policy.

There was huge inflation to speak of for a very long time. Inflation never went away, it just wasn't in the CPI basket that the Bank chose to look at.

The inflation went to house prices so some people mistakenly considered that "good" inflation and not "bad" inflation.

Leon

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

The Russian withdrawal from Kherson looks a bit too easy for Ukraine. Hmm

In six months time you'll be saying that about their withdrawal from Sevastopol.

Truly the most catastrophic self-inflicted blunder by a so-called "major power" in many decades.

Except that Zelensky himself is suspicious


“Zelensky: "I don't see them running away from Kherson. This is an information attack. I can't divulge everything. This is an operation to make us go there, to make us pull forces from other dangerous fronts there. They are not ready to leave Kherson."”

https://twitter.com/rwapodcast/status/1585723340806713344?s=46&t=yY1ItCX71fHwvyiHR5rEyg

Let’s hope this is a simple and quite abject retreat

GIN1138

Heathener said:

Sterling is back at Liz Truss levels:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cx250jmk4e7t/pound-sterling-gbp

House sales to fall by more than a quarter to lowest level in a decade:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/house-sales-fall-quarter-lowest-level-decade/


And another dirty sleazy tory MP is rumbled:
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-mp-andrew-bridgen-should-be-suspended-for-failing-to-declare-paid-work-and-threatening-commissioner-standards-committee-recommends-12737060

1992-7 only 100x worse with the economy and living standards tanking, going the opposite way from the Major years.

The next GE result will be cataclysmic for the tories.

Starmer is no Blair and Labour are no where near as strong as New Labour was running up to 1997.

Conservatives will lose the nect election of course but Labour will only get a small majority. The next election will be 1974 not 1997 IMO.

Lets hope that weirdo Andrew Bridgen MP is finished!

bondegezou

carnforth said:

williamglenn said:

I didn't realise quite how much history there is between Alastair Campbell and the Albanian PM.

This piece was written in 2017:

https://exit.al/en/2017/08/01/a-response-to-alastair-campbell/

...Campbell dares to praise one of the most corrupt initiatives of Rama’s entire first term as prime minister, the illegal destruction of the monumental Qemal Stafa stadium, the transfer of public land to a private corporation, and a completely opaque procurement process that featured all the familiar names from Rama’s clientele.

I wonder what Campbell made of this Remain poster:

So that’s why so many Albanians are coming over! Leave won and now we’re like a home away from home for them.

Pulpstar

I'm not convinced house prices are going to drop too much with hugely negative real rates.

NerysHughes

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

The Russian withdrawal from Kherson looks a bit too easy for Ukraine. Hmm

In six months time you'll be saying that about their withdrawal from Sevastopol.

Truly the most catastrophic self-inflicted blunder by a so-called "major power" in many decades.

It is really hard to see what logic was applied when the decision to invade was made.

kinabalu

BartholomewRoberts said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

I reckon the BoE chickens out again and goes for 50bps.

I don't really go with all the slagging off the BoE. They aren't great, bit timid and behind the curve, but if we're going to cast around for a blame figure for the mess we're in I'd more go with the government. They've been shocking for the last few years.

But even that's unfair imo. We're transitioning out of a long period of near zero interest rates and QE propping us up after the financial crash. That was bound to be painful, then add the pandemic and Putin on top and you have a dire situation - stressed public finances and inflation and a poor growth outlook. 3 lemons.

The problem was not ticking up rates slowly over the past decade. A quarter-point every six months since 2015 or 2016, and we’d be in a much stronger position now.

Governments have loved rates being zero, they’ve been able to borrow and print almost at will, with seemingly none of the predicted inflation coming to fruition, and all of them have done just that. Well now the bill has come in, and the next few years are going to be horrible as those bills need to be paid.

Agree to an extent with the underlying sentiment. But the BoE brief is inflation and there wasn't any to speak of for a long time. As for the politicians they don't look beyond elections - and for good measure our lot got bogged down in the Brexit swamp for years on end. We just don't have a long term or a "planning" mindset when it comes to any aspect of economic policy.

There was huge inflation to speak of for a very long time. Inflation never went away, it just wasn't in the CPI basket that the Bank chose to look at.

The inflation went to house prices so some people mistakenly considered that "good" inflation and not "bad" inflation.

Not in their mandate though.

williamglenn

Heathener said:

Sterling is back at Liz Truss levels

The Euro seems to be down to Liz Truss levels too: 0.9758 to the dollar.

Anabobazina

GRIM GRIM GRIM

The Tory Party has screwed us. Time for a change.

kinabalu

Pulpstar said:

I'm not convinced house prices are going to drop too much with hugely negative real rates.

I'll stick with my 15% prediction for London.

Sandpit

Pulpstar said:

I'm not convinced house prices are going to drop too much with hugely negative real rates.

The bigger determinant will be the willingness of banks, to continue to lend high salary multiples and loan-to-value multiples.

Driver

Anabobazina said:

GRIM GRIM GRIM

The Tory Party has screwed us. Time for a change.

Great. Who should we change to that has any better idea of what to do?

CarlottaVance

NerysHughes said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

The Russian withdrawal from Kherson looks a bit too easy for Ukraine. Hmm

In six months time you'll be saying that about their withdrawal from Sevastopol.

Truly the most catastrophic self-inflicted blunder by a so-called "major power" in many decades.

It is really hard to see what logic was applied when the decision to invade was made.

There has been a long plotted Russian plan to complete a land bridge to Crimea.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/magazine/russiagate-paul-manafort-ukraine-war.html

bondegezou

Heathener said:

Sterling is back at Liz Truss levels:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cx250jmk4e7t/pound-sterling-gbp

House sales to fall by more than a quarter to lowest level in a decade:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/house-sales-fall-quarter-lowest-level-decade/


And another dirty sleazy tory MP is rumbled:
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-mp-andrew-bridgen-should-be-suspended-for-failing-to-declare-paid-work-and-threatening-commissioner-standards-committee-recommends-12737060

1992-7 only 100x worse with the economy and living standards tanking, going the opposite way from the Major years.

The next GE result will be cataclysmic for the tories.

Bridgen should think himself lucky to only get the suggested 5 day suspension for that.

Foxy

bondegezou said:

carnforth said:

williamglenn said:

I didn't realise quite how much history there is between Alastair Campbell and the Albanian PM.

This piece was written in 2017:

https://exit.al/en/2017/08/01/a-response-to-alastair-campbell/

...Campbell dares to praise one of the most corrupt initiatives of Rama’s entire first term as prime minister, the illegal destruction of the monumental Qemal Stafa stadium, the transfer of public land to a private corporation, and a completely opaque procurement process that featured all the familiar names from Rama’s clientele.

I wonder what Campbell made of this Remain poster:

So that’s why so many Albanians are coming over! Leave won and now we’re like a home away from home for them.

The one true bastion of Socialism. Long live our Dear Leader and his Revolutionary Party!

Sandpit

NerysHughes said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

The Russian withdrawal from Kherson looks a bit too easy for Ukraine. Hmm

In six months time you'll be saying that about their withdrawal from Sevastopol.

Truly the most catastrophic self-inflicted blunder by a so-called "major power" in many decades.

It is really hard to see what logic was applied when the decision to invade was made.

The logic applied, was visible when the Ukranians found No.1 uniforms in the first tanks across the border at Chernobyl.

The plan was to race to Kiev and hold the parade a week later, just as they did in Crimea in 2014.

They didn’t expect the overwhelming response they got from Ukraine and the international community.

EPG

BartholomewRoberts said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

I reckon the BoE chickens out again and goes for 50bps.

I don't really go with all the slagging off the BoE. They aren't great, bit timid and behind the curve, but if we're going to cast around for a blame figure for the mess we're in I'd more go with the government. They've been shocking for the last few years.

But even that's unfair imo. We're transitioning out of a long period of near zero interest rates and QE propping us up after the financial crash. That was bound to be painful, then add the pandemic and Putin on top and you have a dire situation - stressed public finances and inflation and a poor growth outlook. 3 lemons.

The problem was not ticking up rates slowly over the past decade. A quarter-point every six months since 2015 or 2016, and we’d be in a much stronger position now.

Governments have loved rates being zero, they’ve been able to borrow and print almost at will, with seemingly none of the predicted inflation coming to fruition, and all of them have done just that. Well now the bill has come in, and the next few years are going to be horrible as those bills need to be paid.

Agree to an extent with the underlying sentiment. But the BoE brief is inflation and there wasn't any to speak of for a long time. As for the politicians they don't look beyond elections - and for good measure our lot got bogged down in the Brexit swamp for years on end. We just don't have a long term or a "planning" mindset when it comes to any aspect of economic policy.

There was huge inflation to speak of for a very long time. Inflation never went away, it just wasn't in the CPI basket that the Bank chose to look at.

The inflation went to house prices so some people mistakenly considered that "good" inflation and not "bad" inflation.

Increases in asset values, while most consumer goods prices are flat, is not a situation you can improve with interest rates. Greenspan though so and was tragically misguided.

IanB2

If he's concentrating more on good government than good (party) politics, it will at least be better for the country in the long run.

CarlottaVance

Pulpstar said:

I'm not convinced house prices are going to drop too much with hugely negative real rates.

I suspect they’ll fall in real terms rather than absolute terms. Massive debt? Hello inflation - take a seat by the fire.

Alphabet_Soup

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

The Russian withdrawal from Kherson looks a bit too easy for Ukraine. Hmm

In six months time you'll be saying that about their withdrawal from Sevastopol.

Truly the most catastrophic self-inflicted blunder by a so-called "major power" in many decades.

Except that Zelensky himself is suspicious


“Zelensky: "I don't see them running away from Kherson. This is an information attack. I can't divulge everything. This is an operation to make us go there, to make us pull forces from other dangerous fronts there. They are not ready to leave Kherson."”

https://twitter.com/rwapodcast/status/1585723340806713344?s=46&t=yY1ItCX71fHwvyiHR5rEyg

Let’s hope this is a simple and quite abject retreat

Looting Kherson art gallery yesterday:

https://twitter.com/JaneLytv/status/1588111276294647808

But they would, wouldn't they. They would do that.

Foxy

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not convinced house prices are going to drop too much with hugely negative real rates.

The bigger determinant will be the willingness of banks, to continue to lend high salary multiples and loan-to-value multiples.

If they were restricted to 3x earnings plus 1× spouse like the 1980s then prices would drop sharply even at low interest rates.

TimS

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

The Russian withdrawal from Kherson looks a bit too easy for Ukraine. Hmm

In six months time you'll be saying that about their withdrawal from Sevastopol.

Truly the most catastrophic self-inflicted blunder by a so-called "major power" in many decades.

Except that Zelensky himself is suspicious


“Zelensky: "I don't see them running away from Kherson. This is an information attack. I can't divulge everything. This is an operation to make us go there, to make us pull forces from other dangerous fronts there. They are not ready to leave Kherson."”

https://twitter.com/rwapodcast/status/1585723340806713344?s=46&t=yY1ItCX71fHwvyiHR5rEyg

Let’s hope this is a simple and quite abject retreat

I wouldn't be surprised if this was both 1. a psy-op in late October intended to trick Ukraine into advancing too early, 2. an actual withdrawal now.

Recent history shows us that governments with no central strategic direction are prone to u-turns.

It would certainly make a bit of military sense for Russia to withdraw to behind the river where it's a lot easier to defend themselves and hold the line. They can blow the dam then too. But psychologically and propaganda wise it could be disastrous.

This would be the first major city liberated and by most accounts and exceedingly anti-Russian one. Kherson was a hotbed of protest early in the invasion and seems to have been a hotbed of partisan activity since. That suggests - if this isn't all a bluff - that we could soon be seeing large cheering crowds welcoming Ukrainian soldiers back. I very much doubt they've successfully "evacuated" the whole civilian population across the water. Probably substantial evidence of Russian terrorising of the civilian population, rape and looting and so on too.

Hard to cover that up completely in Russia, especially the cheering.

nico679

The BOE recession forecast might be a case of frightening the public into cutting their spending and so helping to reduce inflation more quickly .

I’m not sure what the point is of putting out these recession forecasts unless it’s for that reason .

ThomasNashe

kinabalu said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not convinced house prices are going to drop too much with hugely negative real rates.

I'll stick with my 15% prediction for London.

There’s been a lot of building around here (Ealing) over the last few years. It feels like the supply will increase greatly, and I could see a big fall in prices. Probably a good thing overall.

BartholomewRoberts

EPG said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

I reckon the BoE chickens out again and goes for 50bps.

I don't really go with all the slagging off the BoE. They aren't great, bit timid and behind the curve, but if we're going to cast around for a blame figure for the mess we're in I'd more go with the government. They've been shocking for the last few years.

But even that's unfair imo. We're transitioning out of a long period of near zero interest rates and QE propping us up after the financial crash. That was bound to be painful, then add the pandemic and Putin on top and you have a dire situation - stressed public finances and inflation and a poor growth outlook. 3 lemons.

The problem was not ticking up rates slowly over the past decade. A quarter-point every six months since 2015 or 2016, and we’d be in a much stronger position now.

Governments have loved rates being zero, they’ve been able to borrow and print almost at will, with seemingly none of the predicted inflation coming to fruition, and all of them have done just that. Well now the bill has come in, and the next few years are going to be horrible as those bills need to be paid.

Agree to an extent with the underlying sentiment. But the BoE brief is inflation and there wasn't any to speak of for a long time. As for the politicians they don't look beyond elections - and for good measure our lot got bogged down in the Brexit swamp for years on end. We just don't have a long term or a "planning" mindset when it comes to any aspect of economic policy.

There was huge inflation to speak of for a very long time. Inflation never went away, it just wasn't in the CPI basket that the Bank chose to look at.

The inflation went to house prices so some people mistakenly considered that "good" inflation and not "bad" inflation.

Increases in asset values, while most consumer goods prices are flat, is not a situation you can improve with interest rates. Greenspan though so and was tragically misguided.

Housing is a consumer price, people paying rent are not buying an asset when they pay that price, but it is just a consumer price the discredited CPI ignores.

Ignoring that was even more tragically misguided than any mistakes Greenspan may have made.

CarlottaVance

1/ A banner day for fans of SNP currency policies in the House of Commons yesterday. Several new positions were announced, one old one resurrected, and many rubbished by their own side. An inauspicious start for @Ianblackford_MP, whose opening gambit was met with laughter.

https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1588109078080983041

BartholomewRoberts

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not convinced house prices are going to drop too much with hugely negative real rates.

The bigger determinant will be the willingness of banks, to continue to lend high salary multiples and loan-to-value multiples.

If they were restricted to 3x earnings plus 1× spouse like the 1980s then prices would drop sharply even at low interest rates.

Not if people can avoid that restriction if they're buying to let they won't.

CarlottaVance

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

The Russian withdrawal from Kherson looks a bit too easy for Ukraine. Hmm

In six months time you'll be saying that about their withdrawal from Sevastopol.

Truly the most catastrophic self-inflicted blunder by a so-called "major power" in many decades.

Except that Zelensky himself is suspicious


“Zelensky: "I don't see them running away from Kherson. This is an information attack. I can't divulge everything. This is an operation to make us go there, to make us pull forces from other dangerous fronts there. They are not ready to leave Kherson."”

https://twitter.com/rwapodcast/status/1585723340806713344?s=46&t=yY1ItCX71fHwvyiHR5rEyg

Let’s hope this is a simple and quite abject retreat

I wonder if this is where the Russians plan to detonate the “Ukrainian” (sic) dirty bomb?

JosiasJessop

CarlottaVance said:

NerysHughes said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

The Russian withdrawal from Kherson looks a bit too easy for Ukraine. Hmm

In six months time you'll be saying that about their withdrawal from Sevastopol.

Truly the most catastrophic self-inflicted blunder by a so-called "major power" in many decades.

It is really hard to see what logic was applied when the decision to invade was made.

There has been a long plotted Russian plan to complete a land bridge to Crimea.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/magazine/russiagate-paul-manafort-ukraine-war.html

The USSR was essentially a Russian empire. When that empire collapsed, Russia lost a massive amount of its internal prestige and pride; Only its nuclear capabilities keep it as a world power, with a pre-war economy smaller than Canada's (and which will be smaller now).

Too many people in Russia - or at least the power brokers in the cities - want Russia to be a power once again. They could have done that the hard way, by using their many advantages - e.g. material and human resources; its massive industrial base - to become a power over he last two decades. Instead, they did the easy thing, stole and wasted those advantages.

But all that stolen loot, stolen talent and stolen time has not brought them the position they desire in the world. Instead of a might colossus, they are a mighty joke. This war is a toddler's stop - but sadly, a toddler with nuclear weapons.

TL;DR: Russia is butt-burt.