I'm not convinced house prices are going to drop too much with hugely negative real rates.
I'll stick with my 15% prediction for London.
There’s been a lot of building around here (Ealing) over the last few years. It feels like the supply will increase greatly, and I could see a big fall in prices. Probably a good thing overall.
Yes, defo a good thing overall - but better if it happens gradually and relatively with (other) prices & earnings inflation doing most of the work.
In any case 15% absolute is pretty big. Do you mean a lot more than that? That would surprise me actually.
No, but 20% wouldn’t surprise me either.
But each significant fall is likely to be met by an increase in first-time buyers at the point that they realise they can afford to buy. I.e. they won’t hang about for possible further falls.
Tough times, that's for sure. I can't recall when we last had all 3 of rampant inflation, terrible public finances, and a looming long recession.
2007, but Gordon Brown changed inflation from RPI which includes housing to the discredited CPI which does not, and Tory Chancellors have kept that change as it fraudulently pretended inflation had gone away.
Hmm not really like now. But you've managed to say "Gordon Brown" so job done there.
Its different to now, but it had all 3 that you mentioned. Over 11% inflation on some measures, over 4% in RPI, plus terrible public finances and a looming long recession.
I don't excuse Tory Chancellors for sticking to Brown's fraudulent scam that housing is somehow not real inflation, I've been critical on the Tories for that too for a long time. It suited Osborne et al to pretend somehow that inflation was lower than it really was by using Brown's dodgy data and the result was the Bank of England used dodgy data for their mandate.
I'd say you want housing costs (rent and rent equivalents for owners) in there not house prices.
Anyway "Brown's fraudulent scam" - well done again. But we'll stop now, I think, so you can't keep crowbarring Gordophobic abuse into the chat. Enough's enough. I won't be an enabler.
I can understand why from your point of view you don't like the fact that the current failed policies are those of the last 20 years, not just the last 12.
That is desperate - you must feel a bit funny after psyching up to say it.
And yet it's true - the consensus of the last 20 years is obvious if you're paying attention. Not everything is party politics.
Many consensuses have contributed to where we are today. Eg I'd pick out the one that said free markets can judge risk v reward, but there are loads. You've just picked a timeframe to get a bit of New Labour in there and exclude Thatcherism.
Not really - I've picked the timeframe from the biggest shift that I can remember - from Clarkism (kept on by Brown for the first term) to Brown/Osborne/Sunakism. I don't have many political memories before 1990.
Osborne was continuity Brown? That's an unusual take.
In areas like "inflation" (pretend it doesn't exist by excluding it where it does) etc absolutely Osborne was continuity Brown and I've criticised him for that.
It suited Osborne's interests to continue with Brown's scam.
"Brown's scam" - you are at it again! It's a good job he's not a protected characteristic or you'd be up before the Beak.
You can't help yourself, can you? You claimed you weren't going to engage, but here you are trying to claim that Brown rewriting inflation to exclude inflation in house costs wasn't a scam. It was. A scam that Ishmael sought to justify by suggesting that it was a good way to rip off those with indexed linked assets. A scam Osborne etc continued with.
Housing is a cost, not solely an asset. It is in fact the largest cost of living on average, more than electricity, or gas, or cars, or even food.
Any inflation figure that excludes the largest cost of living from its data is fake.
But the point is how to include it in official inflation. Do you use some sort of rental equivalent or do you just stick in the gross asset price change? The 2nd feels wrong - as per your exchange with OLB - but agree or not it's certainly not a "scam" to *not* do that. You're only saying so because of your Gordophobia, which you do suffer from and I'm being totally serious in saying this. You're a Gordophobe. You are simply incapable of assessing his record with any degree of accuracy or fairness. It renders your punditry on him next to worthless. Which is a shame since it's both passionate and copious.
Second hand cars and inferred prices are excluded from CPI.
Houses could follow the same principle, a new build home is purely cost not anyone's asset and if the cost goes higher then that simply means the cost of purchasing has gone higher, just as if a new car cost goes higher.
Either way, excluding housing costs because that reduces the headline figure is a scam. I say the same about Osborne sticking with the scam, or Ishmael saying its a good thing because it defrauds people with indexed linked payments etc as if that's something I'd view as a positive?
Your weird Gordophilia that anything Brown did can't have any downsides is just odd. Forget Brown, rewriting inflation from including housing in RPIX to excluding it in CPI was plain dodgy data and has meant inflation has been wrongly and fallaciously claimed to be low for years.
In 1997 the average new build house price was £71,892 In 2022 the average new build house price is £292,773
Yet we're supposed to think that a change in cost from £71,892 to £292,773 is not a factor in inflation?
Only a dishonest fool could suggest such a thing.
Hardly a "scam", though, to take the view that rental equivalent is a better inclusion to cost-of-living inflation for housing costs than gross asset price change.
Still, cars are a slightly better analogy than your previous bog roll so that's a win right there.
Not really, since a cost is a cost and it is what people paying the cost have to pay. But either way the rental equivalent isn't in CPI though, thus making it a ... scam.
According to OBR data housing makes up more than a quarter of household expenditure, yet housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels combined make up only 14% of the weighting of CPI. How can you justify that?
You don't need to do rent equivalent. You just do the average mortgage cost for the average house.
On the basis of 100% funding, ie no equity?
No, on the average equity of homeowners.
You don't even need to include directly in a measure of consumer price inflation, just acknowledge that monetary policy shouldn't ignore asset bubbles.
Central banks were too confident that they had found the magic formula for perpetual financial stability and this was institutionalised, making it hard to adapt now that everyone can see they were deeply mistaken.
I have just got back from a marathon collection caper to get a 982 from a bloke with one arm in County Durham. Like Autoclyus, I am a snapper up of ill considered trifles. Two things I noticed...
War Christmas is already in full swing in England's northernmost oblasts. Poppy shit everywhere.
All anybody will talk about is fucking Albanians - one armed bloke, woman in petrol station, bloke in caff. Whoever is pushing the Albanian Invasion line on socials is doing a very good job.
It’s the revelation that the Home Office is block booking 4 and even 5 star hotels in towns across the country: taking them over for the Albanians
And the taxpayers are paying for them. To be kept warm and fed all winter in 4 star hotels
That’s a dazzlingly powerful meme (in a bad way) as people look at their own heating bills and their friends going to food banks. You could not devise a better advert (in a bad way) for the fucked upness of the channel crossings
The government should just ignore the Liberati and go in as hard as nails on this issue and deport deport deport. Get some legal cover first. Emergency change of law if necessary.
They need to change the facts on the ground. Rhetoric alone doesn't cut it anymore.
Yes, the Liberati will howl like a wounded animal from the rooftops. But they'll do that anyway.
I have just got back from a marathon collection caper to get a 982 from a bloke with one arm in County Durham. Like Autoclyus, I am a snapper up of ill considered trifles. Two things I noticed...
War Christmas is already in full swing in England's northernmost oblasts. Poppy shit everywhere.
All anybody will talk about is fucking Albanians - one armed bloke, woman in petrol station, bloke in caff. Whoever is pushing the Albanian Invasion line on socials is doing a very good job.
For someone who hates the northern oblasts of Leaverstan, and those who reside in them, you sure do spend an awful lot of time visiting and talking to them.
Well, the locals have been screwed by Brexit and the Tories, so they have to sell off their Porsches etc. DA is doing them a service by deigning to glance over their horseless carriages and offer a price in steadily depreciating Brexitlandish pounds.
I have just got back from a marathon collection caper to get a 982 from a bloke with one arm in County Durham. Like Autoclyus, I am a snapper up of ill considered trifles. Two things I noticed...
War Christmas is already in full swing in England's northernmost oblasts. Poppy shit everywhere.
All anybody will talk about is fucking Albanians - one armed bloke, woman in petrol station, bloke in caff. Whoever is pushing the Albanian Invasion line on socials is doing a very good job.
It’s the revelation that the Home Office is block booking 4 and even 5 star hotels in towns across the country: taking them over for the Albanians
And the taxpayers are paying for them. To be kept warm and fed all winter in 4 star hotels
That’s a dazzlingly powerful meme (in a bad way) as people look at their own heating bills and their friends going to food banks. You could not devise a better advert (in a bad way) for the fucked upness of the channel crossings
The government should just ignore the Liberati and go in as hard as nails on this issue and deport deport deport. Get some legal cover first. Emergency change of law if necessary.
They need to change the facts on the ground. Rhetoric alone doesn't cut it anymore.
Yes, the Liberati will howl like a wounded animal from the rooftops. But they'll do that anyway.
Yes. If this continues it is going to make people insanely and yet justifiably angry. That sad nutter who attacked the asylum centre in Dover will be repeated, unless HMG gets a grip
I dunno how they do that. I don’t envy any politician trying to tackle this. But putting Albanians in lovely Novotels for 6 months is absolutely toxic politics
Bounty hunters may have their work cut out this Christmas, after chocolate manufacturer Mars Wrigley said it would be eliminating the sweet from some of its tubs.
The coconut-flavoured treat may be marketed as a slice of paradise, but nearly 40% of us hate them, Mars says.
So a limited run of "No Bounty" tubs will go on sale at 40 Tesco stores in the run-up to Christmas.
I have just got back from a marathon collection caper to get a 982 from a bloke with one arm in County Durham. Like Autoclyus, I am a snapper up of ill considered trifles. Two things I noticed...
War Christmas is already in full swing in England's northernmost oblasts. Poppy shit everywhere.
All anybody will talk about is fucking Albanians - one armed bloke, woman in petrol station, bloke in caff. Whoever is pushing the Albanian Invasion line on socials is doing a very good job.
I have just got back from a marathon collection caper to get a 982 from a bloke with one arm in County Durham. Like Autoclyus, I am a snapper up of ill considered trifles. Two things I noticed...
War Christmas is already in full swing in England's northernmost oblasts. Poppy shit everywhere.
All anybody will talk about is fucking Albanians - one armed bloke, woman in petrol station, bloke in caff. Whoever is pushing the Albanian Invasion line on socials is doing a very good job.
There was a woman from the NE on James O'Brien that claimed successful asylum seekers get free cars from government. I thought that was very generous of government. She wasn't sure what makes and models were provided free of charge. Probably something hideous like a Juke.
I have just got back from a marathon collection caper to get a 982 from a bloke with one arm in County Durham. Like Autoclyus, I am a snapper up of ill considered trifles. Two things I noticed...
War Christmas is already in full swing in England's northernmost oblasts. Poppy shit everywhere.
All anybody will talk about is fucking Albanians - one armed bloke, woman in petrol station, bloke in caff. Whoever is pushing the Albanian Invasion line on socials is doing a very good job.
It’s the revelation that the Home Office is block booking 4 and even 5 star hotels in towns across the country: taking them over for the Albanians
And the taxpayers are paying for them. To be kept warm and fed all winter in 4 star hotels
That’s a dazzlingly powerful meme (in a bad way) as people look at their own heating bills and their friends going to food banks. You could not devise a better advert (in a bad way) for the fucked upness of the channel crossings
The government should just ignore the Liberati and go in as hard as nails on this issue and deport deport deport. Get some legal cover first. Emergency change of law if necessary.
They need to change the facts on the ground. Rhetoric alone doesn't cut it anymore.
Yes, the Liberati will howl like a wounded animal from the rooftops. But they'll do that anyway.
Yes. If this continues it is going to make people insanely and yet justifiably angry. That sad nutter who attacked the asylum centre in Dover will be repeated, unless HMG gets a grip
I dunno how they do that. I don’t envy any politician trying to tackle this. But putting Albanians in lovely Novotels for 6 months is absolutely toxic politics
Seem to be plenty of rooms at Britannia. DYO conclusion as to HMG's motives.
I'm not convinced house prices are going to drop too much with hugely negative real rates.
I'll stick with my 15% prediction for London.
There’s been a lot of building around here (Ealing) over the last few years. It feels like the supply will increase greatly, and I could see a big fall in prices. Probably a good thing overall.
Yes, defo a good thing overall - but better if it happens gradually and relatively with (other) prices & earnings inflation doing most of the work.
In any case 15% absolute is pretty big. Do you mean a lot more than that? That would surprise me actually.
No, but 20% wouldn’t surprise me either.
But each significant fall is likely to be met by an increase in first-time buyers at the point that they realise they can afford to buy. I.e. they won’t hang about for possible further falls.
Tough times, that's for sure. I can't recall when we last had all 3 of rampant inflation, terrible public finances, and a looming long recession.
2007, but Gordon Brown changed inflation from RPI which includes housing to the discredited CPI which does not, and Tory Chancellors have kept that change as it fraudulently pretended inflation had gone away.
Hmm not really like now. But you've managed to say "Gordon Brown" so job done there.
Its different to now, but it had all 3 that you mentioned. Over 11% inflation on some measures, over 4% in RPI, plus terrible public finances and a looming long recession.
I don't excuse Tory Chancellors for sticking to Brown's fraudulent scam that housing is somehow not real inflation, I've been critical on the Tories for that too for a long time. It suited Osborne et al to pretend somehow that inflation was lower than it really was by using Brown's dodgy data and the result was the Bank of England used dodgy data for their mandate.
I'd say you want housing costs (rent and rent equivalents for owners) in there not house prices.
Anyway "Brown's fraudulent scam" - well done again. But we'll stop now, I think, so you can't keep crowbarring Gordophobic abuse into the chat. Enough's enough. I won't be an enabler.
I can understand why from your point of view you don't like the fact that the current failed policies are those of the last 20 years, not just the last 12.
That is desperate - you must feel a bit funny after psyching up to say it.
And yet it's true - the consensus of the last 20 years is obvious if you're paying attention. Not everything is party politics.
Many consensuses have contributed to where we are today. Eg I'd pick out the one that said free markets can judge risk v reward, but there are loads. You've just picked a timeframe to get a bit of New Labour in there and exclude Thatcherism.
Not really - I've picked the timeframe from the biggest shift that I can remember - from Clarkism (kept on by Brown for the first term) to Brown/Osborne/Sunakism. I don't have many political memories before 1990.
Osborne was continuity Brown? That's an unusual take.
In areas like "inflation" (pretend it doesn't exist by excluding it where it does) etc absolutely Osborne was continuity Brown and I've criticised him for that.
It suited Osborne's interests to continue with Brown's scam.
"Brown's scam" - you are at it again! It's a good job he's not a protected characteristic or you'd be up before the Beak.
You can't help yourself, can you? You claimed you weren't going to engage, but here you are trying to claim that Brown rewriting inflation to exclude inflation in house costs wasn't a scam. It was. A scam that Ishmael sought to justify by suggesting that it was a good way to rip off those with indexed linked assets. A scam Osborne etc continued with.
Housing is a cost, not solely an asset. It is in fact the largest cost of living on average, more than electricity, or gas, or cars, or even food.
Any inflation figure that excludes the largest cost of living from its data is fake.
But the point is how to include it in official inflation. Do you use some sort of rental equivalent or do you just stick in the gross asset price change? The 2nd feels wrong - as per your exchange with OLB - but agree or not it's certainly not a "scam" to *not* do that. You're only saying so because of your Gordophobia, which you do suffer from and I'm being totally serious in saying this. You're a Gordophobe. You are simply incapable of assessing his record with any degree of accuracy or fairness. It renders your punditry on him next to worthless. Which is a shame since it's both passionate and copious.
Second hand cars and inferred prices are excluded from CPI.
Houses could follow the same principle, a new build home is purely cost not anyone's asset and if the cost goes higher then that simply means the cost of purchasing has gone higher, just as if a new car cost goes higher.
Either way, excluding housing costs because that reduces the headline figure is a scam. I say the same about Osborne sticking with the scam, or Ishmael saying its a good thing because it defrauds people with indexed linked payments etc as if that's something I'd view as a positive?
Your weird Gordophilia that anything Brown did can't have any downsides is just odd. Forget Brown, rewriting inflation from including housing in RPIX to excluding it in CPI was plain dodgy data and has meant inflation has been wrongly and fallaciously claimed to be low for years.
In 1997 the average new build house price was £71,892 In 2022 the average new build house price is £292,773
Yet we're supposed to think that a change in cost from £71,892 to £292,773 is not a factor in inflation?
Only a dishonest fool could suggest such a thing.
Hardly a "scam", though, to take the view that rental equivalent is a better inclusion to cost-of-living inflation for housing costs than gross asset price change.
Still, cars are a slightly better analogy than your previous bog roll so that's a win right there.
Not really, since a cost is a cost and it is what people paying the cost have to pay. But either way the rental equivalent isn't in CPI though, thus making it a ... scam.
According to OBR data housing makes up more than a quarter of household expenditure, yet housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels combined make up only 14% of the weighting of CPI. How can you justify that?
You don't need to do rent equivalent. You just do the average mortgage cost for the average house.
On the basis of 100% funding, ie no equity?
No, on the average equity of homeowners.
You don't even need to include directly in a measure of consumer price inflation, just acknowledge that monetary policy shouldn't ignore asset bubbles.
Central banks were too confident that they had found the magic formula for perpetual financial stability and this was institutionalised, making it hard to adapt now that everyone can see they were deeply mistaken.
Now you're talking. So long as we don't go elevating Brown to the level of (say) Greenspan as architect of the Crash, we can close in on some good solid truth.
Brexit is merely taking back control. What you do with that control is what matters. May had the right ideas but screwed up the politics. Boris had the right ideas but was too lazy for execution. Truss just had bad ideas.
A lot of words for "Brexit is a shitshow"
If you're unable to synthesize someone's argument in a way they would agree with, then you an ideologue.
The first rule of pb com club: you do not engage with Scott on the subject of Brexit.
The second rule of pb com club: you DO NOT engage with Scott on the subject of Brexit.
One thing I don't understand about the worldwide recession is the situation with unemployment. We are all aware that there is zero unemployment in the UK, and in America despite them having 2 quarters of negative growth, there are 2 vacancies for every unemployed person.
As someone who left school in the early 80's when there were no jobs and who went through the recessions that followed, recessions normally cause mass unemployment, but there is absolutely no sign of that happening either here or in America.I think the FED in America have been desperate for a bit of umemployment to help their fight against inflation, and can't believe that it hasn't happened with their interest rate rises.
Since the 1980s? Unemployment has been defined away or blurred into sort-of-employment (ZHC, expanded student population).
There is an element of that, but also a smaller pool of workers so less pressure on that.
Recessions in the 1940-s through to the early Seventies didn't have mass unemployment as a feature. Certainly so in the mass deindustrialising of the economy of the late Seventies and early Eighties.
I have just got back from a marathon collection caper to get a 982 from a bloke with one arm in County Durham. Like Autoclyus, I am a snapper up of ill considered trifles. Two things I noticed...
War Christmas is already in full swing in England's northernmost oblasts. Poppy shit everywhere.
All anybody will talk about is fucking Albanians - one armed bloke, woman in petrol station, bloke in caff. Whoever is pushing the Albanian Invasion line on socials is doing a very good job.
It’s the revelation that the Home Office is block booking 4 and even 5 star hotels in towns across the country: taking them over for the Albanians
And the taxpayers are paying for them. To be kept warm and fed all winter in 4 star hotels
That’s a dazzlingly powerful meme (in a bad way) as people look at their own heating bills and their friends going to food banks. You could not devise a better advert (in a bad way) for the fucked upness of the channel crossings
Shocking. Perhaps they could usefully be asked to write up their experience of the hotel for the travel pages of the Tirana Times?
Bounty hunters may have their work cut out this Christmas, after chocolate manufacturer Mars Wrigley said it would be eliminating the sweet from some of its tubs.
The coconut-flavoured treat may be marketed as a slice of paradise, but nearly 40% of us hate them, Mars says.
So a limited run of "No Bounty" tubs will go on sale at 40 Tesco stores in the run-up to Christmas.
Bounty hunters may have their work cut out this Christmas, after chocolate manufacturer Mars Wrigley said it would be eliminating the sweet from some of its tubs.
The coconut-flavoured treat may be marketed as a slice of paradise, but nearly 40% of us hate them, Mars says.
So a limited run of "No Bounty" tubs will go on sale at 40 Tesco stores in the run-up to Christmas.
Bounty hunters may have their work cut out this Christmas, after chocolate manufacturer Mars Wrigley said it would be eliminating the sweet from some of its tubs.
The coconut-flavoured treat may be marketed as a slice of paradise, but nearly 40% of us hate them, Mars says.
So a limited run of "No Bounty" tubs will go on sale at 40 Tesco stores in the run-up to Christmas.
One thing I don't understand about the worldwide recession is the situation with unemployment. We are all aware that there is zero unemployment in the UK, and in America despite them having 2 quarters of negative growth, there are 2 vacancies for every unemployed person.
As someone who left school in the early 80's when there were no jobs and who went through the recessions that followed, recessions normally cause mass unemployment, but there is absolutely no sign of that happening either here or in America.I think the FED in America have been desperate for a bit of umemployment to help their fight against inflation, and can't believe that it hasn't happened with their interest rate rises.
The FED has been very explicit that they want to increase unemployment.
Yes and the other day I saw an article that said 20% of the UK workforce were on long term sick leave and unfit for work. Hence low unemployment.
Bounty hunters may have their work cut out this Christmas, after chocolate manufacturer Mars Wrigley said it would be eliminating the sweet from some of its tubs.
The coconut-flavoured treat may be marketed as a slice of paradise, but nearly 40% of us hate them, Mars says.
So a limited run of "No Bounty" tubs will go on sale at 40 Tesco stores in the run-up to Christmas.
Bounty hunters may have their work cut out this Christmas, after chocolate manufacturer Mars Wrigley said it would be eliminating the sweet from some of its tubs.
The coconut-flavoured treat may be marketed as a slice of paradise, but nearly 40% of us hate them, Mars says.
So a limited run of "No Bounty" tubs will go on sale at 40 Tesco stores in the run-up to Christmas.
If it didn't cause the fall that followed, it was a perfect illustration of the hubris and distaste of accountability or personal standards which did cause it.
I have just got back from a marathon collection caper to get a 982 from a bloke with one arm in County Durham. Like Autoclyus, I am a snapper up of ill considered trifles. Two things I noticed...
War Christmas is already in full swing in England's northernmost oblasts. Poppy shit everywhere.
All anybody will talk about is fucking Albanians - one armed bloke, woman in petrol station, bloke in caff. Whoever is pushing the Albanian Invasion line on socials is doing a very good job.
I have just got back from a marathon collection caper to get a 982 from a bloke with one arm in County Durham. Like Autoclyus, I am a snapper up of ill considered trifles. Two things I noticed...
War Christmas is already in full swing in England's northernmost oblasts. Poppy shit everywhere.
All anybody will talk about is fucking Albanians - one armed bloke, woman in petrol station, bloke in caff. Whoever is pushing the Albanian Invasion line on socials is doing a very good job.
There was a woman from the NE on James O'Brien that claimed successful asylum seekers get free cars from government. I thought that was very generous of government. She wasn't sure what makes and models were provided free of charge. Probably something hideous like a Juke.
Is she getting confused with families of Russian mobiks KIA?
I have just got back from a marathon collection caper to get a 982 from a bloke with one arm in County Durham. Like Autoclyus, I am a snapper up of ill considered trifles. Two things I noticed...
War Christmas is already in full swing in England's northernmost oblasts. Poppy shit everywhere.
All anybody will talk about is fucking Albanians - one armed bloke, woman in petrol station, bloke in caff. Whoever is pushing the Albanian Invasion line on socials is doing a very good job.
For someone who hates the northern oblasts of Leaverstan, and those who reside in them, you sure do spend an awful lot of time visiting and talking to them.
Well, the locals have been screwed by Brexit and the Tories, so they have to sell off their Porsches etc. DA is doing them a service by deigning to glance over their horseless carriages and offer a price in steadily depreciating Brexitlandish pounds.
Hmm, not sure how they square the circle on this issue Through negotiations, taking into account relevant legal proceedings, it is our intention to secure an agreement on the basis of international law to resolve all outstanding issues, including those relating to the former inhabitants of the Chagos Archipelago...
The UK and Mauritius have reiterated that any agreement between our two countries will ensure the continued effective operation of the joint UK/US military base on Diego Garcia, which plays a vital role in regional and global security. We recognise the US’s and India’s interests and will keep them informed of progress.
I have just got back from a marathon collection caper to get a 982 from a bloke with one arm in County Durham. Like Autoclyus, I am a snapper up of ill considered trifles. Two things I noticed...
War Christmas is already in full swing in England's northernmost oblasts. Poppy shit everywhere.
All anybody will talk about is fucking Albanians - one armed bloke, woman in petrol station, bloke in caff. Whoever is pushing the Albanian Invasion line on socials is doing a very good job.
For someone who hates the northern oblasts of Leaverstan, and those who reside in them, you sure do spend an awful lot of time visiting and talking to them.
Well, the locals have been screwed by Brexit and the Tories, so they have to sell off their Porsches etc. DA is doing them a service by deigning to glance over their horseless carriages and offer a price in steadily depreciating Brexitlandish pounds.
This Cayman is not even hairdresser spec, it's hairdresser's receptionist spec - 4 cylinder manual in miamiblau. Quick flip.
I have just got back from a marathon collection caper to get a 982 from a bloke with one arm in County Durham. Like Autoclyus, I am a snapper up of ill considered trifles. Two things I noticed...
War Christmas is already in full swing in England's northernmost oblasts. Poppy shit everywhere.
All anybody will talk about is fucking Albanians - one armed bloke, woman in petrol station, bloke in caff. Whoever is pushing the Albanian Invasion line on socials is doing a very good job.
I have just got back from a marathon collection caper to get a 982 from a bloke with one arm in County Durham. Like Autoclyus, I am a snapper up of ill considered trifles. Two things I noticed...
War Christmas is already in full swing in England's northernmost oblasts. Poppy shit everywhere.
All anybody will talk about is fucking Albanians - one armed bloke, woman in petrol station, bloke in caff. Whoever is pushing the Albanian Invasion line on socials is doing a very good job.
There was a woman from the NE on James O'Brien that claimed successful asylum seekers get free cars from government. I thought that was very generous of government. She wasn't sure what makes and models were provided free of charge. Probably something hideous like a Juke.
Government mobility fleet is the biggest in Europe, good few of them go to real chancers as well
I'm not convinced house prices are going to drop too much with hugely negative real rates.
I'll stick with my 15% prediction for London.
There’s been a lot of building around here (Ealing) over the last few years. It feels like the supply will increase greatly, and I could see a big fall in prices. Probably a good thing overall.
Yes, defo a good thing overall - but better if it happens gradually and relatively with (other) prices & earnings inflation doing most of the work.
In any case 15% absolute is pretty big. Do you mean a lot more than that? That would surprise me actually.
No, but 20% wouldn’t surprise me either.
But each significant fall is likely to be met by an increase in first-time buyers at the point that they realise they can afford to buy. I.e. they won’t hang about for possible further falls.
Tough times, that's for sure. I can't recall when we last had all 3 of rampant inflation, terrible public finances, and a looming long recession.
2007, but Gordon Brown changed inflation from RPI which includes housing to the discredited CPI which does not, and Tory Chancellors have kept that change as it fraudulently pretended inflation had gone away.
Hmm not really like now. But you've managed to say "Gordon Brown" so job done there.
Its different to now, but it had all 3 that you mentioned. Over 11% inflation on some measures, over 4% in RPI, plus terrible public finances and a looming long recession.
I don't excuse Tory Chancellors for sticking to Brown's fraudulent scam that housing is somehow not real inflation, I've been critical on the Tories for that too for a long time. It suited Osborne et al to pretend somehow that inflation was lower than it really was by using Brown's dodgy data and the result was the Bank of England used dodgy data for their mandate.
I'd say you want housing costs (rent and rent equivalents for owners) in there not house prices.
Anyway "Brown's fraudulent scam" - well done again. But we'll stop now, I think, so you can't keep crowbarring Gordophobic abuse into the chat. Enough's enough. I won't be an enabler.
I can understand why from your point of view you don't like the fact that the current failed policies are those of the last 20 years, not just the last 12.
That is desperate - you must feel a bit funny after psyching up to say it.
And yet it's true - the consensus of the last 20 years is obvious if you're paying attention. Not everything is party politics.
Many consensuses have contributed to where we are today. Eg I'd pick out the one that said free markets can judge risk v reward, but there are loads. You've just picked a timeframe to get a bit of New Labour in there and exclude Thatcherism.
Not really - I've picked the timeframe from the biggest shift that I can remember - from Clarkism (kept on by Brown for the first term) to Brown/Osborne/Sunakism. I don't have many political memories before 1990.
Osborne was continuity Brown? That's an unusual take.
In areas like "inflation" (pretend it doesn't exist by excluding it where it does) etc absolutely Osborne was continuity Brown and I've criticised him for that.
It suited Osborne's interests to continue with Brown's scam.
"Brown's scam" - you are at it again! It's a good job he's not a protected characteristic or you'd be up before the Beak.
You can't help yourself, can you? You claimed you weren't going to engage, but here you are trying to claim that Brown rewriting inflation to exclude inflation in house costs wasn't a scam. It was. A scam that Ishmael sought to justify by suggesting that it was a good way to rip off those with indexed linked assets. A scam Osborne etc continued with.
Housing is a cost, not solely an asset. It is in fact the largest cost of living on average, more than electricity, or gas, or cars, or even food.
Any inflation figure that excludes the largest cost of living from its data is fake.
But the point is how to include it in official inflation. Do you use some sort of rental equivalent or do you just stick in the gross asset price change? The 2nd feels wrong - as per your exchange with OLB - but agree or not it's certainly not a "scam" to *not* do that. You're only saying so because of your Gordophobia, which you do suffer from and I'm being totally serious in saying this. You're a Gordophobe. You are simply incapable of assessing his record with any degree of accuracy or fairness. It renders your punditry on him next to worthless. Which is a shame since it's both passionate and copious.
Second hand cars and inferred prices are excluded from CPI.
Houses could follow the same principle, a new build home is purely cost not anyone's asset and if the cost goes higher then that simply means the cost of purchasing has gone higher, just as if a new car cost goes higher.
Either way, excluding housing costs because that reduces the headline figure is a scam. I say the same about Osborne sticking with the scam, or Ishmael saying its a good thing because it defrauds people with indexed linked payments etc as if that's something I'd view as a positive?
Your weird Gordophilia that anything Brown did can't have any downsides is just odd. Forget Brown, rewriting inflation from including housing in RPIX to excluding it in CPI was plain dodgy data and has meant inflation has been wrongly and fallaciously claimed to be low for years.
In 1997 the average new build house price was £71,892 In 2022 the average new build house price is £292,773
Yet we're supposed to think that a change in cost from £71,892 to £292,773 is not a factor in inflation?
Only a dishonest fool could suggest such a thing.
Hardly a "scam", though, to take the view that rental equivalent is a better inclusion to cost-of-living inflation for housing costs than gross asset price change.
Still, cars are a slightly better analogy than your previous bog roll so that's a win right there.
Not really, since a cost is a cost and it is what people paying the cost have to pay. But either way the rental equivalent isn't in CPI though, thus making it a ... scam.
According to OBR data housing makes up more than a quarter of household expenditure, yet housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels combined make up only 14% of the weighting of CPI. How can you justify that?
You don't need to do rent equivalent. You just do the average mortgage cost for the average house.
Or just the average cost of the average house. Or new ones, like cars.
Financing costs aren't done in CPI on car leases, or how much interest you pay on credit card purchases for your baked beans.
What weight would you put on house prices in your CPI-BR? Since buying a house isn't consumption it's hard to know how to calculate the weight. You couldn't use the share of consumption as you do for everything else.
We conducted a focus group last Tuesday of 2019 Conservative voters, but who would vote Labour if an election were tomorrow, to gauge reactions to the new Prime Minister. Let’s see what they thought…
THREAD🧵[1/9]
But it was Johnson, rather than Truss, that left them feeling disillusioned. Partygate was the catalyst, and although Truss may have been the final straw, anti-Conservative sentiment had been building among this group for a long time.
I reckon 90% of all these Albanians will succeed in getting asylum under either a modern slavery or a blood feud argument (they'll be advised which) because the test is so broad, and the hurdle so low, and there's a massive 3rd sector ready to help them. So if the law isn't changed nothing will change.
I think we should implement an emergency suspension of our membership of the 1951 Refugee Convention (until it can be internationally renegotiated) and modify the Modern Slavery Act. Also, review all other laws that might provide a bleeding heart loophole - one being the HRA and anything else that suggests we owe a human rights duty of care to anyone who lands on our shores to the same standard as our existing citizens. Dignity and respect, yes, but it's not a judicable "right" - it's within reason/best endeavours where possible etc. You get full rights if and when you're accepted.
Anyone ambiguous should be deported to a country where reasonable evidence exists that it is their country of origin and that same country agrees to reaccept them.
Throw hundreds of millions and masses of recruitment at it with contractors/new hires to break the backlog in the next few months.
The links between senior Blairites and the Albanian government should probably get some more scrutiny in the light of their attack on Suella Braverman.
Even though the former British prime minister has claimed that he has been offering his services to the Albanian government cost-free, in 2015 British media reported that Blair’s wife, Cherie Blair., had signed a contract with the Albanian government in exchange for legal advice services.
Alastair Campbell helped the Edi Rama get elected in 2013 and was employed as a "freelance strategic advisor":
I worked with Rama and his Socialist Party team in the Renaissance campaign that secured his victory. And just as New Labour had to be as real in government as in opposition, so Rama's renaissance campaign has to be matched by real change now.
I reckon 90% of all these Albanians will succeed in getting asylum under either a modern slavery or a blood feud argument (they'll be advised which) because the test is so broad, and the hurdle so low, and there's a massive 3rd sector ready to help them. So if the law isn't changed nothing will change.
I think we should implement an emergency suspension of our membership of the 1951 Refugee Convention (until it can be internationally renegotiated) and modify the Modern Slavery Act. Also, review all other laws that might provide a bleeding heart loophole - one being the HRA and anything else that suggests we owe a human rights duty of care to anyone who lands on our shores to the same standard as our existing citizens. Dignity and respect, yes, but it's not a judicable "right" - it's within reason/best endeavours where possible etc. You get full rights if and when you're accepted.
Anyone ambiguous should be deported to a country where reasonable evidence exists that it is their country of origin and that same country agrees to reaccept them.
Throw hundreds of millions and masses of recruitment at it with contractors/new hires to break the backlog in the next few months.
I see in France the rate of success for asylum seekers is about 20% , why wouldUK be inversely proportional to France at 80%.
Bounty hunters may have their work cut out this Christmas, after chocolate manufacturer Mars Wrigley said it would be eliminating the sweet from some of its tubs.
The coconut-flavoured treat may be marketed as a slice of paradise, but nearly 40% of us hate them, Mars says.
So a limited run of "No Bounty" tubs will go on sale at 40 Tesco stores in the run-up to Christmas.
I have been quiet on here last couple of days because my wife has had to go into hospital as a result of complications with her long time illness.
Although the on-call GP had secured a bed, but for various reasons, she ended up having to go via A&E. What a nightmare!! Everything you read about the overwhelming numbers and the sheer chaos is true and in spades. Twenty hours in A&E before up to a ward!! A lot of it on a trolley in the corridor.
The links between senior Blairites and the Albanian government should probably get some more scrutiny in the light of their attack on Suella Braverman.
Even though the former British prime minister has claimed that he has been offering his services to the Albanian government cost-free, in 2015 British media reported that Blair’s wife, Cherie Blair., had signed a contract with the Albanian government in exchange for legal advice services.
Alastair Campbell helped the Edi Rama get elected in 2013 and was employed as a "freelance strategic advisor":
I worked with Rama and his Socialist Party team in the Renaissance campaign that secured his victory. And just as New Labour had to be as real in government as in opposition, so Rama's renaissance campaign has to be matched by real change now.
Presumably you'll also attack the use of Australian electoral wizards by the Conservative and Unionist Party.
Surely the question of the Governorship of the Bank of England is working its way to the top of Sunak's agenda. Despite having to make a 0.75% increase today Mr Bailey sulkily maintained that that was probably it and that inflation was somehow going to come back to target again within 3 years without further tightening. This has resulted in the pound losing nearly 2% of its value today increasing both imported inflation and the cost of the gas price guarantee.
It is really not good enough. There is still a failure to recognise the extent to which the Bank fell behind the curve and an almost perverse determination to fall even further behind in the future. Mr Bailey is clearly concerned that these increasing rates will deepen the coming recession. He is right about that but those are the consequences of failing to act timeously. He really has to go.
Great word, "timeously", and not one that I knew until now.
I think it may be used more in Scotland. So, my written submissions in respect of an appeal due today were lodged timeously about 15 minutes ago!
It was used regularly in the Civil Service when I worked for it, but I have rarely seen it used elsewhere.
It's actually quite a good word. 'I submitted my returns timeously this year.'
I have been quiet on here last couple of days because my wife has had to go into hospital as a result of complications with her long time illness.
Although the on-call GP had secured a bed, but for various reasons, she ended up having to go via A&E. What a nightmare!! Everything you read about the overwhelming numbers and the sheer chaos is true and in spades. Twenty hours in A&E before up to a ward!! A lot of it on a trolley in the corridor.
Very worrying time.
Goodness - I hope it all comes good! Good luck and best wishes!
I have been quiet on here last couple of days because my wife has had to go into hospital as a result of complications with her long time illness.
Although the on-call GP had secured a bed, but for various reasons, she ended up having to go via A&E. What a nightmare!! Everything you read about the overwhelming numbers and the sheer chaos is true and in spades. Twenty hours in A&E before up to a ward!! A lot of it on a trolley in the corridor.
Looks like a levelling out, which kind of makes sense.
Ooh. Early days, but if the Sunak Surge tops out here, that matters.
After all, there's not a lot on the horizon to make the public look at the government more fondly.
The polls are following the script at the moment.
Grown-ups are back in charge of the country so the headlong rush to Labour has stopped and there is something of a return to normality, but there is a heck of a way to go before the Tories are competitive again, and obvious problems to encounter on the way.
Fwiw, I'm thinking of 30% plays 45% in the main contest at the GE. Plug that into Electoral Calculus and you get a decent rump of Tories with which to begin the rebuilding process. Factor in some tactical voting though, and it ain't so good.
There is so much in your reading of the polling I just don’t like.
To start with, did the Starmergasm only stop and level out when “ Grown-ups are back in charge of the country” last week, or weeks before? There was the drop, the change in labours lead, largely driven by media taking leave of their senses and describing everyday of a temporary run on the pound as though it was black Wednesday everyday, but labours lead was actually swelled by squeeze on green and Lib Dem totals is the truth.
Now the grown ups are in charge, so say, where is the pro Grown Ups movement? This poll you are commentating on says 24%, up 1%? Eh? Where’s the grown ups bounce?
Maybe they are not seen as grown ups because it’s only you who thinks they are grown ups. Maybe voters don’t see Sunak and his cabinet as being the fresh change they want, maybe they don’t see them as grown ups in charge of an economy, maybe they don’t see the enormous gulf from the clueless kiddies of Truss and Kwarteng to the all grown up Sunak, like you do?
Those clueless kiddies did actually offer a fresh approach from years of failure your “grown ups” represent - growth budgets, tax reduction. And they didn’t crash the economy, it’s a myth. The grown ups represent high tax, maxxed out credit and zero growth, because the only truth that should come to mind when you hear “Sunak” is money printed then sprayed around like confetti with no attempt at financial discipline at all.
You’ve got your thinkers and kiddies muddled up here.
Didn't expect that one to trigger such a strong response, but thank you for your views anyway.
Bounty hunters may have their work cut out this Christmas, after chocolate manufacturer Mars Wrigley said it would be eliminating the sweet from some of its tubs.
The coconut-flavoured treat may be marketed as a slice of paradise, but nearly 40% of us hate them, Mars says.
So a limited run of "No Bounty" tubs will go on sale at 40 Tesco stores in the run-up to Christmas.
One thing I don't understand about the worldwide recession is the situation with unemployment. We are all aware that there is zero unemployment in the UK, and in America despite them having 2 quarters of negative growth, there are 2 vacancies for every unemployed person.
As someone who left school in the early 80's when there were no jobs and who went through the recessions that followed, recessions normally cause mass unemployment, but there is absolutely no sign of that happening either here or in America.I think the FED in America have been desperate for a bit of umemployment to help their fight against inflation, and can't believe that it hasn't happened with their interest rate rises.
The FED has been very explicit that they want to increase unemployment.
Yes and the other day I saw an article that said 20% of the UK workforce were on long term sick leave and unfit for work. Hence low unemployment.
That doesn't sound likely when we have 75.5% employment rate, amongst the highest in our history.
The links between senior Blairites and the Albanian government should probably get some more scrutiny in the light of their attack on Suella Braverman.
Even though the former British prime minister has claimed that he has been offering his services to the Albanian government cost-free, in 2015 British media reported that Blair’s wife, Cherie Blair., had signed a contract with the Albanian government in exchange for legal advice services.
Alastair Campbell helped the Edi Rama get elected in 2013 and was employed as a "freelance strategic advisor":
I worked with Rama and his Socialist Party team in the Renaissance campaign that secured his victory. And just as New Labour had to be as real in government as in opposition, so Rama's renaissance campaign has to be matched by real change now.
Surely if they are helping the Albanian government run their country better that would help to reduce the number of people fleeing the country? Or do you think that Cherie Blair is buying them all dinghies personally? Or is this just a ridiculous smear? Answers on a postcard!
I have been quiet on here last couple of days because my wife has had to go into hospital as a result of complications with her long time illness.
Although the on-call GP had secured a bed, but for various reasons, she ended up having to go via A&E. What a nightmare!! Everything you read about the overwhelming numbers and the sheer chaos is true and in spades. Twenty hours in A&E before up to a ward!! A lot of it on a trolley in the corridor.
Very worrying time.
Commiserations.
The true sign of how bad things are is that that is not really a surprise.
Bounty hunters may have their work cut out this Christmas, after chocolate manufacturer Mars Wrigley said it would be eliminating the sweet from some of its tubs.
The coconut-flavoured treat may be marketed as a slice of paradise, but nearly 40% of us hate them, Mars says.
So a limited run of "No Bounty" tubs will go on sale at 40 Tesco stores in the run-up to Christmas.
I reckon 90% of all these Albanians will succeed in getting asylum under either a modern slavery or a blood feud argument (they'll be advised which) because the test is so broad, and the hurdle so low, and there's a massive 3rd sector ready to help them. So if the law isn't changed nothing will change.
I think we should implement an emergency suspension of our membership of the 1951 Refugee Convention (until it can be internationally renegotiated) and modify the Modern Slavery Act. Also, review all other laws that might provide a bleeding heart loophole - one being the HRA and anything else that suggests we owe a human rights duty of care to anyone who lands on our shores to the same standard as our existing citizens. Dignity and respect, yes, but it's not a judicable "right" - it's within reason/best endeavours where possible etc. You get full rights if and when you're accepted.
Anyone ambiguous should be deported to a country where reasonable evidence exists that it is their country of origin and that same country agrees to reaccept them.
Throw hundreds of millions and masses of recruitment at it with contractors/new hires to break the backlog in the next few months.
I see in France the rate of success for asylum seekers is about 20% , why wouldUK be inversely proportional to France at 80%.
Because we have a very sappy elite. And they set the rules and make all the decisions.
@tomorrowsmps · Nov 2 TUNBRIDGE WELLS: Lib Dems have picked prominent Afghanistan veteran Mike Martin as cand to fight seat where Cons have 14,645 maj - 26.8% - over the LDs. Martin has written several books, & is a fellow in the war studies dept at Kings College, London. Did he have any rivals?
The links between senior Blairites and the Albanian government should probably get some more scrutiny in the light of their attack on Suella Braverman.
Even though the former British prime minister has claimed that he has been offering his services to the Albanian government cost-free, in 2015 British media reported that Blair’s wife, Cherie Blair., had signed a contract with the Albanian government in exchange for legal advice services.
Alastair Campbell helped the Edi Rama get elected in 2013 and was employed as a "freelance strategic advisor":
I worked with Rama and his Socialist Party team in the Renaissance campaign that secured his victory. And just as New Labour had to be as real in government as in opposition, so Rama's renaissance campaign has to be matched by real change now.
Surely if they are helping the Albanian government run their country better that would help to reduce the number of people fleeing the country? Or do you think that Cherie Blair is buying them all dinghies personally? Or is this just a ridiculous smear? Answers on a postcard!
"Surely if they are helping the Albanian government run their country better that would help to reduce the number of people fleeing the country?"
Do the numbers since 2013 suggest that this is the case?
I have been quiet on here last couple of days because my wife has had to go into hospital as a result of complications with her long time illness.
Although the on-call GP had secured a bed, but for various reasons, she ended up having to go via A&E. What a nightmare!! Everything you read about the overwhelming numbers and the sheer chaos is true and in spades. Twenty hours in A&E before up to a ward!! A lot of it on a trolley in the corridor.
Very worrying time.
Sorry to hear it. The mayhem continues due to the failures of the Social Care system. We cannot admit because we cannot discharge, and as we cannot admit, patients get stuck in A/E or in ambulances in the carpark.
It is estimated that we are losing 230 people to preventable cardiac deaths each week as a result. More are getting greater damage too from delays.
I have been quiet on here last couple of days because my wife has had to go into hospital as a result of complications with her long time illness.
Although the on-call GP had secured a bed, but for various reasons, she ended up having to go via A&E. What a nightmare!! Everything you read about the overwhelming numbers and the sheer chaos is true and in spades. Twenty hours in A&E before up to a ward!! A lot of it on a trolley in the corridor.
Very worrying time.
Commiserations.
The true sign of how bad things are is that that is not really a surprise.
By any reasonable definition of the word, the NHS is no longer in danger of collapse; it has collapsed.
I think now might be the time for cabinet members to start anonymously briefing that Bailey isn't up to the job and is making their jobs more difficult by stretching out this inflationary period. He's got to go, as bad as Truss and Kwarteng.
I am sure that a public dissing of independent bodies is precisely what the markets have been crying out for.
Bailey himself doesn't seem to hold market confidence any longer, that's the issue. We have a BoE governor with no credibility. Replacing him with someone who does will itself be a big step forwards. Rishi put him there under the Boris mantra of sticking controllable stooges in place. Now is the time to pull out that long awaited FCA conduct investigation from his time as chief.
First it was Kwarteng, then Truss, now it's Bailey. I hold no candle for the man, but what's the point of all these blood sacrifices to 'the markets', given that all they seem to do is offer a few days of relief before speculators see another opportunity? Especially if those who replace them are every bit as incompetent as the ones they're replacing, which certainly seems to be the case so far.
Bounty hunters may have their work cut out this Christmas, after chocolate manufacturer Mars Wrigley said it would be eliminating the sweet from some of its tubs.
The coconut-flavoured treat may be marketed as a slice of paradise, but nearly 40% of us hate them, Mars says.
So a limited run of "No Bounty" tubs will go on sale at 40 Tesco stores in the run-up to Christmas.
I guess the way to judge it is if the others go to a second week of bounce or stall like YG, 2 or 3 due tomorrow. Although worth noting that of those first 2, YG found an initial bounce but Redfield didnt from the last Truss polls, so that skews things a bit
The links between senior Blairites and the Albanian government should probably get some more scrutiny in the light of their attack on Suella Braverman.
Even though the former British prime minister has claimed that he has been offering his services to the Albanian government cost-free, in 2015 British media reported that Blair’s wife, Cherie Blair., had signed a contract with the Albanian government in exchange for legal advice services.
Alastair Campbell helped the Edi Rama get elected in 2013 and was employed as a "freelance strategic advisor":
I worked with Rama and his Socialist Party team in the Renaissance campaign that secured his victory. And just as New Labour had to be as real in government as in opposition, so Rama's renaissance campaign has to be matched by real change now.
Surely if they are helping the Albanian government run their country better that would help to reduce the number of people fleeing the country? Or do you think that Cherie Blair is buying them all dinghies personally? Or is this just a ridiculous smear? Answers on a postcard!
The Albanian PM said earlier this week that there is no major surge in departures, and that many might be from the Albanian diaspora, which has been substantial in a number of European countries rather than directly from Albania itself.
I have been quiet on here last couple of days because my wife has had to go into hospital as a result of complications with her long time illness.
Although the on-call GP had secured a bed, but for various reasons, she ended up having to go via A&E. What a nightmare!! Everything you read about the overwhelming numbers and the sheer chaos is true and in spades. Twenty hours in A&E before up to a ward!! A lot of it on a trolley in the corridor.
Very worrying time.
Sorry to hear it. The mayhem continues due to the failures of the Social Care system. We cannot admit because we cannot discharge, and as we cannot admit, patients get stuck in A/E or in ambulances in the carpark.
It is estimated that we are losing 230 people to preventable cardiac deaths each week as a result. More are getting greater damage too from delays.
I reckon 90% of all these Albanians will succeed in getting asylum under either a modern slavery or a blood feud argument (they'll be advised which) because the test is so broad, and the hurdle so low, and there's a massive 3rd sector ready to help them. So if the law isn't changed nothing will change.
I think we should implement an emergency suspension of our membership of the 1951 Refugee Convention (until it can be internationally renegotiated) and modify the Modern Slavery Act. Also, review all other laws that might provide a bleeding heart loophole - one being the HRA and anything else that suggests we owe a human rights duty of care to anyone who lands on our shores to the same standard as our existing citizens. Dignity and respect, yes, but it's not a judicable "right" - it's within reason/best endeavours where possible etc. You get full rights if and when you're accepted.
Anyone ambiguous should be deported to a country where reasonable evidence exists that it is their country of origin and that same country agrees to reaccept them.
Throw hundreds of millions and masses of recruitment at it with contractors/new hires to break the backlog in the next few months.
Changing those laws would be a red rag to a bull. Better all round to just break or bend them to be honest - like net zero.
One thing I don't understand about the worldwide recession is the situation with unemployment. We are all aware that there is zero unemployment in the UK, and in America despite them having 2 quarters of negative growth, there are 2 vacancies for every unemployed person.
As someone who left school in the early 80's when there were no jobs and who went through the recessions that followed, recessions normally cause mass unemployment, but there is absolutely no sign of that happening either here or in America.I think the FED in America have been desperate for a bit of umemployment to help their fight against inflation, and can't believe that it hasn't happened with their interest rate rises.
The FED has been very explicit that they want to increase unemployment.
Yes and the other day I saw an article that said 20% of the UK workforce were on long term sick leave and unfit for work. Hence low unemployment.
That doesn't sound likely when we have 75.5% employment rate, amongst the highest in our history.
Only thing I can see quickly is it is 2.5 million. Cannot remember what the article was at 20% or if I misread
Bounty hunters may have their work cut out this Christmas, after chocolate manufacturer Mars Wrigley said it would be eliminating the sweet from some of its tubs.
The coconut-flavoured treat may be marketed as a slice of paradise, but nearly 40% of us hate them, Mars says.
So a limited run of "No Bounty" tubs will go on sale at 40 Tesco stores in the run-up to Christmas.
The links between senior Blairites and the Albanian government should probably get some more scrutiny in the light of their attack on Suella Braverman.
Even though the former British prime minister has claimed that he has been offering his services to the Albanian government cost-free, in 2015 British media reported that Blair’s wife, Cherie Blair., had signed a contract with the Albanian government in exchange for legal advice services.
Alastair Campbell helped the Edi Rama get elected in 2013 and was employed as a "freelance strategic advisor":
I worked with Rama and his Socialist Party team in the Renaissance campaign that secured his victory. And just as New Labour had to be as real in government as in opposition, so Rama's renaissance campaign has to be matched by real change now.
Surely if they are helping the Albanian government run their country better that would help to reduce the number of people fleeing the country? Or do you think that Cherie Blair is buying them all dinghies personally? Or is this just a ridiculous smear? Answers on a postcard!
The Albanian PM said earlier this week that there is no major surge in departures, and that many might be from the Albanian diaspora, which has been substantial in a number of European countries rather than directly from Albania itself.
No it's all Cherie Blair's fault. She is driving round Tirana loading them into boats and paddling them here herself. I heard it on PB so it must be true!
I'm not convinced house prices are going to drop too much with hugely negative real rates.
I'll stick with my 15% prediction for London.
There’s been a lot of building around here (Ealing) over the last few years. It feels like the supply will increase greatly, and I could see a big fall in prices. Probably a good thing overall.
Yes, defo a good thing overall - but better if it happens gradually and relatively with (other) prices & earnings inflation doing most of the work.
In any case 15% absolute is pretty big. Do you mean a lot more than that? That would surprise me actually.
No, but 20% wouldn’t surprise me either.
But each significant fall is likely to be met by an increase in first-time buyers at the point that they realise they can afford to buy. I.e. they won’t hang about for possible further falls.
Tough times, that's for sure. I can't recall when we last had all 3 of rampant inflation, terrible public finances, and a looming long recession.
2007, but Gordon Brown changed inflation from RPI which includes housing to the discredited CPI which does not, and Tory Chancellors have kept that change as it fraudulently pretended inflation had gone away.
Hmm not really like now. But you've managed to say "Gordon Brown" so job done there.
Its different to now, but it had all 3 that you mentioned. Over 11% inflation on some measures, over 4% in RPI, plus terrible public finances and a looming long recession.
I don't excuse Tory Chancellors for sticking to Brown's fraudulent scam that housing is somehow not real inflation, I've been critical on the Tories for that too for a long time. It suited Osborne et al to pretend somehow that inflation was lower than it really was by using Brown's dodgy data and the result was the Bank of England used dodgy data for their mandate.
I'd say you want housing costs (rent and rent equivalents for owners) in there not house prices.
Anyway "Brown's fraudulent scam" - well done again. But we'll stop now, I think, so you can't keep crowbarring Gordophobic abuse into the chat. Enough's enough. I won't be an enabler.
I can understand why from your point of view you don't like the fact that the current failed policies are those of the last 20 years, not just the last 12.
That is desperate - you must feel a bit funny after psyching up to say it.
And yet it's true - the consensus of the last 20 years is obvious if you're paying attention. Not everything is party politics.
Many consensuses have contributed to where we are today. Eg I'd pick out the one that said free markets can judge risk v reward, but there are loads. You've just picked a timeframe to get a bit of New Labour in there and exclude Thatcherism.
Not really - I've picked the timeframe from the biggest shift that I can remember - from Clarkism (kept on by Brown for the first term) to Brown/Osborne/Sunakism. I don't have many political memories before 1990.
Osborne was continuity Brown? That's an unusual take.
In areas like "inflation" (pretend it doesn't exist by excluding it where it does) etc absolutely Osborne was continuity Brown and I've criticised him for that.
It suited Osborne's interests to continue with Brown's scam.
"Brown's scam" - you are at it again! It's a good job he's not a protected characteristic or you'd be up before the Beak.
You can't help yourself, can you? You claimed you weren't going to engage, but here you are trying to claim that Brown rewriting inflation to exclude inflation in house costs wasn't a scam. It was. A scam that Ishmael sought to justify by suggesting that it was a good way to rip off those with indexed linked assets. A scam Osborne etc continued with.
Housing is a cost, not solely an asset. It is in fact the largest cost of living on average, more than electricity, or gas, or cars, or even food.
Any inflation figure that excludes the largest cost of living from its data is fake.
But the point is how to include it in official inflation. Do you use some sort of rental equivalent or do you just stick in the gross asset price change? The 2nd feels wrong - as per your exchange with OLB - but agree or not it's certainly not a "scam" to *not* do that. You're only saying so because of your Gordophobia, which you do suffer from and I'm being totally serious in saying this. You're a Gordophobe. You are simply incapable of assessing his record with any degree of accuracy or fairness. It renders your punditry on him next to worthless. Which is a shame since it's both passionate and copious.
Second hand cars and inferred prices are excluded from CPI.
Houses could follow the same principle, a new build home is purely cost not anyone's asset and if the cost goes higher then that simply means the cost of purchasing has gone higher, just as if a new car cost goes higher.
Either way, excluding housing costs because that reduces the headline figure is a scam. I say the same about Osborne sticking with the scam, or Ishmael saying its a good thing because it defrauds people with indexed linked payments etc as if that's something I'd view as a positive?
Your weird Gordophilia that anything Brown did can't have any downsides is just odd. Forget Brown, rewriting inflation from including housing in RPIX to excluding it in CPI was plain dodgy data and has meant inflation has been wrongly and fallaciously claimed to be low for years.
In 1997 the average new build house price was £71,892 In 2022 the average new build house price is £292,773
Yet we're supposed to think that a change in cost from £71,892 to £292,773 is not a factor in inflation?
Only a dishonest fool could suggest such a thing.
Hardly a "scam", though, to take the view that rental equivalent is a better inclusion to cost-of-living inflation for housing costs than gross asset price change.
Still, cars are a slightly better analogy than your previous bog roll so that's a win right there.
Not really, since a cost is a cost and it is what people paying the cost have to pay. But either way the rental equivalent isn't in CPI though, thus making it a ... scam.
According to OBR data housing makes up more than a quarter of household expenditure, yet housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels combined make up only 14% of the weighting of CPI. How can you justify that?
You don't need to do rent equivalent. You just do the average mortgage cost for the average house.
On the basis of 100% funding, ie no equity?
No, on the average equity of homeowners.
I suppose that's reasonable - although I personally look at an owner's "housing cost" as being their mortgage interest plus the income they are foregoing on the amount tied up as equity.
The links between senior Blairites and the Albanian government should probably get some more scrutiny in the light of their attack on Suella Braverman.
Even though the former British prime minister has claimed that he has been offering his services to the Albanian government cost-free, in 2015 British media reported that Blair’s wife, Cherie Blair., had signed a contract with the Albanian government in exchange for legal advice services.
Alastair Campbell helped the Edi Rama get elected in 2013 and was employed as a "freelance strategic advisor":
I worked with Rama and his Socialist Party team in the Renaissance campaign that secured his victory. And just as New Labour had to be as real in government as in opposition, so Rama's renaissance campaign has to be matched by real change now.
Surely if they are helping the Albanian government run their country better that would help to reduce the number of people fleeing the country? Or do you think that Cherie Blair is buying them all dinghies personally? Or is this just a ridiculous smear? Answers on a postcard!
The Albanian PM said earlier this week that there is no major surge in departures, and that many might be from the Albanian diaspora, which has been substantial in a number of European countries rather than directly from Albania itself.
No it's all Cherie Blair's fault. She is driving round Tirana loading them into boats and paddling them here herself. I heard it on PB so it must be true!
The answer will be found - as with so many things - on Hunter Biden's laptop.
The links between senior Blairites and the Albanian government should probably get some more scrutiny in the light of their attack on Suella Braverman.
Even though the former British prime minister has claimed that he has been offering his services to the Albanian government cost-free, in 2015 British media reported that Blair’s wife, Cherie Blair., had signed a contract with the Albanian government in exchange for legal advice services.
Alastair Campbell helped the Edi Rama get elected in 2013 and was employed as a "freelance strategic advisor":
I worked with Rama and his Socialist Party team in the Renaissance campaign that secured his victory. And just as New Labour had to be as real in government as in opposition, so Rama's renaissance campaign has to be matched by real change now.
Surely if they are helping the Albanian government run their country better that would help to reduce the number of people fleeing the country? Or do you think that Cherie Blair is buying them all dinghies personally? Or is this just a ridiculous smear? Answers on a postcard!
The Albanian PM said earlier this week that there is no major surge in departures, and that many might be from the Albanian diaspora, which has been substantial in a number of European countries rather than directly from Albania itself.
No it's all Cherie Blair's fault. She is driving round Tirana loading them into boats and paddling them here herself. I heard it on PB so it must be true!
The answer will be found - as with so many things - on Hunter Biden's laptop.
I have been quiet on here last couple of days because my wife has had to go into hospital as a result of complications with her long time illness.
Although the on-call GP had secured a bed, but for various reasons, she ended up having to go via A&E. What a nightmare!! Everything you read about the overwhelming numbers and the sheer chaos is true and in spades. Twenty hours in A&E before up to a ward!! A lot of it on a trolley in the corridor.
Very worrying time.
Commiserations.
The true sign of how bad things are is that that is not really a surprise.
By any reasonable definition of the word, the NHS is no longer in danger of collapse; it has collapsed.
If there wasn't so much dreadful shit happening this would be dominating the news and our politics, I think.
I have been quiet on here last couple of days because my wife has had to go into hospital as a result of complications with her long time illness.
Although the on-call GP had secured a bed, but for various reasons, she ended up having to go via A&E. What a nightmare!! Everything you read about the overwhelming numbers and the sheer chaos is true and in spades. Twenty hours in A&E before up to a ward!! A lot of it on a trolley in the corridor.
Very worrying time.
Commiserations.
The true sign of how bad things are is that that is not really a surprise.
By any reasonable definition of the word, the NHS is no longer in danger of collapse; it has collapsed.
As ever, it is patchy. Ambulance services are in crisis. A/E is over-flowing, but other sectors are making big dents in the waiting list. Indeed in my own speciality, outpatient waiting times are back to pre-covid, and continuing to shrink.
It is anything involving a bed or an anaesthetic that is a nightmare.
I have been quiet on here last couple of days because my wife has had to go into hospital as a result of complications with her long time illness.
Although the on-call GP had secured a bed, but for various reasons, she ended up having to go via A&E. What a nightmare!! Everything you read about the overwhelming numbers and the sheer chaos is true and in spades. Twenty hours in A&E before up to a ward!! A lot of it on a trolley in the corridor.
Very worrying time.
Commiserations.
The true sign of how bad things are is that that is not really a surprise.
By any reasonable definition of the word, the NHS is no longer in danger of collapse; it has collapsed.
It is anything involving a bed or an anaesthetic that is a nightmare.
One thing I don't understand about the worldwide recession is the situation with unemployment. We are all aware that there is zero unemployment in the UK, and in America despite them having 2 quarters of negative growth, there are 2 vacancies for every unemployed person.
As someone who left school in the early 80's when there were no jobs and who went through the recessions that followed, recessions normally cause mass unemployment, but there is absolutely no sign of that happening either here or in America.I think the FED in America have been desperate for a bit of umemployment to help their fight against inflation, and can't believe that it hasn't happened with their interest rate rises.
The FED has been very explicit that they want to increase unemployment.
Yes and the other day I saw an article that said 20% of the UK workforce were on long term sick leave and unfit for work. Hence low unemployment.
That doesn't sound likely when we have 75.5% employment rate, amongst the highest in our history.
Only thing I can see quickly is it is 2.5 million. Cannot remember what the article was at 20% or if I misread
2.5 million sounds plausible, and a very significant amount of that number are on our 6 million strong waiting lists and potentially returned to productive employment.
I have been quiet on here last couple of days because my wife has had to go into hospital as a result of complications with her long time illness.
Although the on-call GP had secured a bed, but for various reasons, she ended up having to go via A&E. What a nightmare!! Everything you read about the overwhelming numbers and the sheer chaos is true and in spades. Twenty hours in A&E before up to a ward!! A lot of it on a trolley in the corridor.
Very worrying time.
Sorry to hear it. The mayhem continues due to the failures of the Social Care system. We cannot admit because we cannot discharge, and as we cannot admit, patients get stuck in A/E or in ambulances in the carpark.
It is estimated that we are losing 230 people to preventable cardiac deaths each week as a result. More are getting greater damage too from delays.
I have been quiet on here last couple of days because my wife has had to go into hospital as a result of complications with her long time illness.
Although the on-call GP had secured a bed, but for various reasons, she ended up having to go via A&E. What a nightmare!! Everything you read about the overwhelming numbers and the sheer chaos is true and in spades. Twenty hours in A&E before up to a ward!! A lot of it on a trolley in the corridor.
Very worrying time.
Commiserations.
The true sign of how bad things are is that that is not really a surprise.
By any reasonable definition of the word, the NHS is no longer in danger of collapse; it has collapsed.
It is anything involving a bed or an anaesthetic that is a nightmare.
That sounds like a lot of areas!
It is! but outpatients and daycare work is going much better.
The answer is Social Care being sorted, and the vacancies in District Nursing etc getting filled so we can get folk home to where they want to be.
I have been quiet on here last couple of days because my wife has had to go into hospital as a result of complications with her long time illness.
Although the on-call GP had secured a bed, but for various reasons, she ended up having to go via A&E. What a nightmare!! Everything you read about the overwhelming numbers and the sheer chaos is true and in spades. Twenty hours in A&E before up to a ward!! A lot of it on a trolley in the corridor.
Very worrying time.
Commiserations.
The true sign of how bad things are is that that is not really a surprise.
By any reasonable definition of the word, the NHS is no longer in danger of collapse; it has collapsed.
If there wasn't so much dreadful shit happening this would be dominating the news and our politics, I think.
The strikes may be the final straw. The Nurse ballot is nearly done, junior doctors not yet.
The rumours of 2% (so another massive real terms cut) for NHS workers next year are only pushing the strikers to be more radical.
Yes. So much has happened, so fast, that it seems to me that it would be cautious to wait for events a bit. The reaction to Hunt's budget, the next couple of months of reaction to interest rates etc, get Christmas over, see what energy costs and its politics look like at the end of February, and hope there are no cygni atrati coming along to mark Year 1 of the Ukraine 'special operation'.
Then it may be possible to have a think about the next election, which by then will be 90% likely to be the following year.
I have been quiet on here last couple of days because my wife has had to go into hospital as a result of complications with her long time illness.
Although the on-call GP had secured a bed, but for various reasons, she ended up having to go via A&E. What a nightmare!! Everything you read about the overwhelming numbers and the sheer chaos is true and in spades. Twenty hours in A&E before up to a ward!! A lot of it on a trolley in the corridor.
Very worrying time.
Commiserations.
The true sign of how bad things are is that that is not really a surprise.
By any reasonable definition of the word, the NHS is no longer in danger of collapse; it has collapsed.
If there wasn't so much dreadful shit happening this would be dominating the news and our politics, I think.
I have been quiet on here last couple of days because my wife has had to go into hospital as a result of complications with her long time illness.
Although the on-call GP had secured a bed, but for various reasons, she ended up having to go via A&E. What a nightmare!! Everything you read about the overwhelming numbers and the sheer chaos is true and in spades. Twenty hours in A&E before up to a ward!! A lot of it on a trolley in the corridor.
Very worrying time.
Sorry to hear it. The mayhem continues due to the failures of the Social Care system. We cannot admit because we cannot discharge, and as we cannot admit, patients get stuck in A/E or in ambulances in the carpark.
It is estimated that we are losing 230 people to preventable cardiac deaths each week as a result. More are getting greater damage too from delays.
I have been quiet on here last couple of days because my wife has had to go into hospital as a result of complications with her long time illness.
Although the on-call GP had secured a bed, but for various reasons, she ended up having to go via A&E. What a nightmare!! Everything you read about the overwhelming numbers and the sheer chaos is true and in spades. Twenty hours in A&E before up to a ward!! A lot of it on a trolley in the corridor.
Very worrying time.
Sorry to hear it. The mayhem continues due to the failures of the Social Care system. We cannot admit because we cannot discharge, and as we cannot admit, patients get stuck in A/E or in ambulances in the carpark.
It is estimated that we are losing 230 people to preventable cardiac deaths each week as a result. More are getting greater damage too from delays.
Tories hit Rabbits 30 mark Labour leads by 17%, 19-point change since Liz Truss' resigned two weeks ago.
Westminster VI (2-3 Nov.):
Labour 47% (-3) Conservative 30% (+3) Liberal Democrat 12% (+3) Reform UK 4% (+1) Green 3% (-2) SNP 3% (-1) Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 30 Oct.
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
SLEAZY, BROKEN LABOUR ON THE SLIDE!
Lib Dem surge!
It'd be odd if the LDs stumbled into government almost accidently. Nobody would be quite clear who the leader was or whether there were policies.
The Tories are much the best placed as to sense, however the people involved are hopeless. Labour also have a hopeless crowd (with some commando nutters in the wings to make sure), and their ideas of sense are stretching the definition. LDs - useless, and with useless people, but still!
I have been quiet on here last couple of days because my wife has had to go into hospital as a result of complications with her long time illness.
Although the on-call GP had secured a bed, but for various reasons, she ended up having to go via A&E. What a nightmare!! Everything you read about the overwhelming numbers and the sheer chaos is true and in spades. Twenty hours in A&E before up to a ward!! A lot of it on a trolley in the corridor.
Very worrying time.
Commiserations.
The true sign of how bad things are is that that is not really a surprise.
By any reasonable definition of the word, the NHS is no longer in danger of collapse; it has collapsed.
If there wasn't so much dreadful shit happening this would be dominating the news and our politics, I think.
The strikes may be the final straw. The Nurse ballot is nearly done, junior doctors not yet.
The rumours of 2% (so another massive real terms cut) for NHS workers next year are only pushing the strikers to be more radical.
Sounds a precarious situation. I'll be catching up with my NHS Director brother soon and no doubt he'll have some things to say about it.
I have been quiet on here last couple of days because my wife has had to go into hospital as a result of complications with her long time illness.
Although the on-call GP had secured a bed, but for various reasons, she ended up having to go via A&E. What a nightmare!! Everything you read about the overwhelming numbers and the sheer chaos is true and in spades. Twenty hours in A&E before up to a ward!! A lot of it on a trolley in the corridor.
Very worrying time.
Sorry to hear it. The mayhem continues due to the failures of the Social Care system. We cannot admit because we cannot discharge, and as we cannot admit, patients get stuck in A/E or in ambulances in the carpark.
It is estimated that we are losing 230 people to preventable cardiac deaths each week as a result. More are getting greater damage too from delays.
I have just got back from a marathon collection caper to get a 982 from a bloke with one arm in County Durham. Like Autoclyus, I am a snapper up of ill considered trifles. Two things I noticed...
War Christmas is already in full swing in England's northernmost oblasts. Poppy shit everywhere.
All anybody will talk about is fucking Albanians - one armed bloke, woman in petrol station, bloke in caff. Whoever is pushing the Albanian Invasion line on socials is doing a very good job.
I have just got back from a marathon collection caper to get a 982 from a bloke with one arm in County Durham. Like Autoclyus, I am a snapper up of ill considered trifles. Two things I noticed...
War Christmas is already in full swing in England's northernmost oblasts. Poppy shit everywhere.
All anybody will talk about is fucking Albanians - one armed bloke, woman in petrol station, bloke in caff. Whoever is pushing the Albanian Invasion line on socials is doing a very good job.
There was a woman from the NE on James O'Brien that claimed successful asylum seekers get free cars from government. I thought that was very generous of government. She wasn't sure what makes and models were provided free of charge. Probably something hideous like a Juke.
Is she getting confused with families of Russian mobiks KIA?
Why (who for) do you think @DuraAce was buying the 982?
I guess the way to judge it is if the others go to a second week of bounce or stall like YG, 2 or 3 due tomorrow. Although worth noting that of those first 2, YG found an initial bounce but Redfield didnt from the last Truss polls, so that skews things a bit
The Tory’s hitting 30 is significant mileston, and very important in the honeymoon. It is right to look at the Tory % first as Labour could shed to other places not just Tory’s, to cut the lead.
We can reasonably expect Kantor and Opinium to have even higher Tory shares than 30 now, and much smaller leads, it then becomes a question to what extent this is an inflated Tory honeymoon polling with room to reverse for no good narrative reason.
Bounty hunters may have their work cut out this Christmas, after chocolate manufacturer Mars Wrigley said it would be eliminating the sweet from some of its tubs.
The coconut-flavoured treat may be marketed as a slice of paradise, but nearly 40% of us hate them, Mars says.
So a limited run of "No Bounty" tubs will go on sale at 40 Tesco stores in the run-up to Christmas.
Bounty Bars are great. Plain chocolate ones even better.
I shall be boycotting those 40 branches of Tesco forthwith.
Now I really, really want a plain chocolate bounty bar. I don't think I've even thought about them for 20 years or more.
Then my work for the bounty marketing board has been a success.
It was the adverts that were popular. The bar itself less so.
The adverts were filmed in a number of places but mostly in the Dominican Republic. Saona Island claims the record but I have been to Caya Levantado off Samana which also has been used.
I have just got back from a marathon collection caper to get a 982 from a bloke with one arm in County Durham. Like Autoclyus, I am a snapper up of ill considered trifles. Two things I noticed...
War Christmas is already in full swing in England's northernmost oblasts. Poppy shit everywhere.
All anybody will talk about is fucking Albanians - one armed bloke, woman in petrol station, bloke in caff. Whoever is pushing the Albanian Invasion line on socials is doing a very good job.
It’s the revelation that the Home Office is block booking 4 and even 5 star hotels in towns across the country: taking them over for the Albanians
And the taxpayers are paying for them. To be kept warm and fed all winter in 4 star hotels
That’s a dazzlingly powerful meme (in a bad way) as people look at their own heating bills and their friends going to food banks. You could not devise a better advert (in a bad way) for the fucked upness of the channel crossings
The government should just ignore the Liberati and go in as hard as nails on this issue and deport deport deport. Get some legal cover first. Emergency change of law if necessary.
They need to change the facts on the ground. Rhetoric alone doesn't cut it anymore.
Yes, the Liberati will howl like a wounded animal from the rooftops. But they'll do that anyway.
Okay. I’ll engage as thoughtfully I can with your daft post and the problem, and offer my solutions.
In your rant you accidentally on purpose missed this problem is as bad as it is, due entirely to talentless clueless incompetents the Tory’s put in charge of mangling it. There’s no magic bullet, it’s true, though here’s my list of things that will reduce the problem for sure,
1. For starters, The incompetents managing it don’t understand the problem they are dealing with - it’s as simple of that - we know this as fact as they talk about 70% or more are economic migrants, bogus asylum seekers. Back in the real world do you really believe Undocumented economic migrants deliver themselves into the hands of Home Office officials as soon as they reach UK soil? Hence, 4% processing comes from setting up for 70%+ economic migrants, not genuine asylum claims. According to the governments own figures, the majority of asylum claims under this Tory government are found to be legitimate. Almost two-thirds (64%) of asylum claims end in a grant of protection. Of those rejected that went on to appeal, 48% were successfully overturned. They are clearly tackling the backlog with the wrong mindset and wrong prioritising.
2. Secondly, on basis you now realise how many are genuine asylum claims bogged down in your two year backlog, Set up a Department for International Development (DfID) to strengthen the infrastructures of fragile countries and increase stability there. Where do you want to spend the money, DfID, or 5 star hotels? You do the math.
3. Enable safe, legal routes for resettlement of genuine refugees. Would they even need a long stay in a processing centre on UK soil after dangerous water crossing, if you took safe, legal routes for resettlement more seriously? Take as example the priority given to Ukraine refugees, and how abysmal this home office under this government was at managing Ukrainian processing - sending them here and there, where no one was there to help them. And that’s what we call our gold star fast Lane process. Despite Tories paying lip service to liking safe, legal routes, the number of people resettled under the government’s UK resettlement scheme was 1,171 in the 12 months to September 2021, down by about 45% year on year.
4. This is the idea I like best. Process UK humanitarian visas on French soil, and bring them across on ferries. Genuine asylum seekers in northern France hoping to reach the UK to claim asylum, so happy to place themselves into the hands of our home office, could register their claim with UK officials and then be placed on ferries to be brought to the UK while their claim is processed. You want the Rwanda scheme because you are led to believe it hurts the business model of the people smugglers? The simple MoonRabbits Ferry Solution utterly smashes through the business model of the people smugglers, does it not?
I have been quiet on here last couple of days because my wife has had to go into hospital as a result of complications with her long time illness.
Although the on-call GP had secured a bed, but for various reasons, she ended up having to go via A&E. What a nightmare!! Everything you read about the overwhelming numbers and the sheer chaos is true and in spades. Twenty hours in A&E before up to a ward!! A lot of it on a trolley in the corridor.
Very worrying time.
Sorry to hear it. The mayhem continues due to the failures of the Social Care system. We cannot admit because we cannot discharge, and as we cannot admit, patients get stuck in A/E or in ambulances in the carpark.
It is estimated that we are losing 230 people to preventable cardiac deaths each week as a result. More are getting greater damage too from delays.
And yet Sunak appears to be briefing that the social care changes will be kicked into touch until after the next GE.
i.e. never.
It is insane beyond words. Steve Barclay needs to threaten to resign if they are dropped.
Trouble is, isn't Steve Barclay in the Nick Palmer "saw his arm.off before rebelling" category of MP?
In Hunt, I think we at least have a Chancellor who understands the issue. How he acts on that knowledge we will find out in a fortnight.
The difficulty is that we're close to the Sam Vines theory of poverty (Government version).
If we can't afford to fix social care, we end up spending more to get less on healthcare.
Not close to it, but already trodden shin high in it and sinking further down quickly. Saving the pennies is costing us pounds down the line, giving us lower quality services and yes stifling growth in the private sector.
Comments
Central banks were too confident that they had found the magic formula for perpetual financial stability and this was institutionalised, making it hard to adapt now that everyone can see they were deeply mistaken.
I dunno how they do that. I don’t envy any politician trying to tackle this. But putting Albanians in lovely Novotels for 6 months is absolutely toxic politics
Bounty hunters may have their work cut out this Christmas, after chocolate manufacturer Mars Wrigley said it would be eliminating the sweet from some of its tubs.
The coconut-flavoured treat may be marketed as a slice of paradise, but nearly 40% of us hate them, Mars says.
So a limited run of "No Bounty" tubs will go on sale at 40 Tesco stores in the run-up to Christmas.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63497187
It reminded me of the saying that death is just nature's way of telling you to slow down.
Recessions in the 1940-s through to the early Seventies didn't have mass unemployment as a feature. Certainly so in the mass deindustrialising of the economy of the late Seventies and early Eighties.
"May have their work cut out" is just total bullshit, and the BBC is supposed to be above this sort of churnalism clickbait.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/03/mutiny-on-the-bounty-new-celebrations-boxes-exile-divisive-sweet
(b) Bounties are great - just another thing the public are wrong about.
Labour leads by 17%, 19-point change since Liz Truss' resigned two weeks ago.
Westminster VI (2-3 Nov.):
Labour 47% (-3)
Conservative 30% (+3)
Liberal Democrat 12% (+3)
Reform UK 4% (+1)
Green 3% (-2)
SNP 3% (-1)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 30 Oct.
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
If it didn't cause the fall that followed, it was a perfect illustration of the hubris and distaste of accountability or personal standards which did cause it.
Through negotiations, taking into account relevant legal proceedings, it is our intention to secure an agreement on the basis of international law to resolve all outstanding issues, including those relating to the former inhabitants of the Chagos Archipelago...
The UK and Mauritius have reiterated that any agreement between our two countries will ensure the continued effective operation of the joint UK/US military base on Diego Garcia, which plays a vital role in regional and global security. We recognise the US’s and India’s interests and will keep them informed of progress.
https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2022-11-03/hcws354
THREAD🧵[1/9]
But it was Johnson, rather than Truss, that left them feeling disillusioned. Partygate was the catalyst, and although Truss may have been the final straw, anti-Conservative sentiment had been building among this group for a long time.
[3/9] https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1588158681308401664/photo/1
I think we should implement an emergency suspension of our membership of the 1951 Refugee Convention (until it can be internationally renegotiated) and modify the Modern Slavery Act. Also, review all other laws that might provide a bleeding heart loophole - one being the HRA and anything else that suggests we owe a human rights duty of care to anyone who lands on our shores to the same standard as our existing citizens. Dignity and respect, yes, but it's not a judicable "right" - it's within reason/best endeavours where possible etc. You get full rights if and when you're accepted.
Anyone ambiguous should be deported to a country where reasonable evidence exists that it is their country of origin and that same country agrees to reaccept them.
Throw hundreds of millions and masses of recruitment at it with contractors/new hires to break the backlog in the next few months.
https://euronews.al/en/albania/2022/04/19/rama-meets-former-british-pm-tony-blair/
Even though the former British prime minister has claimed that he has been offering his services to the Albanian government cost-free, in 2015 British media reported that Blair’s wife, Cherie Blair., had signed a contract with the Albanian government in exchange for legal advice services.
Alastair Campbell helped the Edi Rama get elected in 2013 and was employed as a "freelance strategic advisor":
https://www.prweek.com/article/1290084/alastair-campbell-rebranding-albania
I worked with Rama and his Socialist Party team in the Renaissance campaign that secured his victory. And just as New Labour had to be as real in government as in opposition, so Rama's renaissance campaign has to be matched by real change now.
Bounty Bars are great. Plain chocolate ones even better.
I shall be boycotting those 40 branches of Tesco forthwith.
Although the on-call GP had secured a bed, but for various reasons, she ended up having to go via A&E. What a nightmare!! Everything you read about the overwhelming numbers and the sheer chaos is true and in spades. Twenty hours in A&E before up to a ward!! A lot of it on a trolley in the corridor.
Very worrying time.
It's actually quite a good word. 'I submitted my returns timeously this year.'
The true sign of how bad things are is that that is not really a surprise.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1588218362236133377
@tomorrowsmps
·
Nov 2
TUNBRIDGE WELLS: Lib Dems have picked prominent Afghanistan veteran Mike Martin as cand to fight seat where Cons have 14,645 maj - 26.8% - over the LDs. Martin has written several books, & is a fellow in the war studies dept at Kings College, London. Did he have any rivals?
Do the numbers since 2013 suggest that this is the case?
It is estimated that we are losing 230 people to preventable cardiac deaths each week as a result. More are getting greater damage too from delays.
https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1588077944328658945?t=2fiiCkQz05a-HujtEyZLhA&s=19
April 2019
September 2019
March 2020
March 2021
November 2022
YouGov, 25-26 October: Lab +28
Redfield, 25-26 October: Lab +32
YouGov, 1-2 Nov: Lab +26 (down 2)
Redfield, 2-3 Nov: Lab +17 (down 15)
So in the last week, polls either haven't really moved, or they've moved 15 points. Take your pick.
https://twitter.com/JMagosh/status/1588216028986753027
Although worth noting that of those first 2, YG found an initial bounce but Redfield didnt from the last Truss polls, so that skews things a bit
i.e. never.
It is insane beyond words. Steve Barclay needs to threaten to resign if they are dropped.
It is anything involving a bed or an anaesthetic that is a nightmare.
The answer is Social Care being sorted, and the vacancies in District Nursing etc getting filled so we can get folk home to where they want to be.
The rumours of 2% (so another massive real terms cut) for NHS workers next year are only pushing the strikers to be more radical.
Then it may be possible to have a think about the next election, which by then will be 90% likely to be the following year.
The Tories are much the best placed as to sense, however the people involved are hopeless. Labour also have a hopeless crowd (with some commando nutters in the wings to make sure), and their ideas of sense are stretching the definition. LDs - useless, and with useless people, but still!
If we can't afford to fix social care, we end up spending more to get less on healthcare.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1588226701699448832?s=20&t=Fhb8wyKLBWSo1_nBLGQNCQ
Keir Starmer Approval Rating (2-3 November):
Approve: 40% (+5)
Disapprove: 22% (-5)
Net: +18% (+10)
Changes +/- 30 October
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-2-3-november-2022 https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1588224538722316289/photo/1
https://twitter.com/ftworldnews/status/1588203139500576774?s=61&t=ut2BEf-9BmEklhS4h1TkTg
We can reasonably expect Kantor and Opinium to have even higher Tory shares than 30 now, and much smaller leads, it then becomes a question to what extent this is an inflated Tory honeymoon polling with room to reverse for no good narrative reason.
In your rant you accidentally on purpose missed this problem is as bad as it is, due entirely to talentless clueless incompetents the Tory’s put in charge of mangling it. There’s no magic bullet, it’s true, though here’s my list of things that will reduce the problem for sure,
1. For starters, The incompetents managing it don’t understand the problem they are dealing with - it’s as simple of that - we know this as fact as they talk about 70% or more are economic migrants, bogus asylum seekers. Back in the real world do you really believe Undocumented economic migrants deliver themselves into the hands of Home Office officials as soon as they reach UK soil? Hence, 4% processing comes from setting up for 70%+ economic migrants, not genuine asylum claims. According to the governments own figures, the majority of asylum claims under this Tory government are found to be legitimate. Almost two-thirds (64%) of asylum claims end in a grant of protection. Of those rejected that went on to appeal, 48% were successfully overturned. They are clearly tackling the backlog with the wrong mindset and wrong prioritising.
2. Secondly, on basis you now realise how many are genuine asylum claims bogged down in your two year backlog, Set up a Department for International Development (DfID) to strengthen the infrastructures of fragile countries and increase stability there. Where do you want to spend the money, DfID, or 5 star hotels? You do the math.
3. Enable safe, legal routes for resettlement of genuine refugees. Would they even need a long stay in a processing centre on UK soil after dangerous water crossing, if you took safe, legal routes for resettlement more seriously? Take as example the priority given to Ukraine refugees, and how abysmal this home office under this government was at managing Ukrainian processing - sending them here and there, where no one was there to help them. And that’s what we call our gold star fast Lane process. Despite Tories paying lip service to liking safe, legal routes, the number of people resettled under the government’s UK resettlement scheme was 1,171 in the 12 months to September 2021, down by about 45% year on year.
4. This is the idea I like best. Process UK humanitarian visas on French soil, and bring them across on ferries. Genuine asylum seekers in northern France hoping to reach the UK to claim asylum, so happy to place themselves into the hands of our home office, could register their claim with UK officials and then be placed on ferries to be brought to the UK while their claim is processed. You want the Rwanda scheme because you are led to believe it hurts the business model of the people smugglers? The simple MoonRabbits Ferry Solution utterly smashes through the business model of the people smugglers, does it not?