Furthermore, Boris MUST have been rewarded by Sunak for dropping out. Must have been. He wouldn't give a key role to Braverman and fail to reward Boris for dropping out. The nature of that reward, we'll see in time I suppose.
MUST he? Does what you write become more accurate because you write it in CAPITALS ?
We'll discover the truth (or more probably, truths) about what happened this week in a decade or so, as memoirs start to emerge. But I'm unconvinced that Boris was particularly in a position to demand a reward for dropping out - as his position was fairly untenable anyway.
His supporters were a different matter. As we've seen, Sunak's upset JRM and Dorries, which is hardly a sign of being pro-Johnson's cronies.
On Braverman (moonshine presumably missed the reports of the Tory conference, where she received a lot of attention) I remember a discussion on Question Time quite a while ago, probably her first appearance. After some time, she just grinned and shrugged her shoulders and said something along the lines of "I'm just an ordinary person, anyone could get along with me". She seemed very superficial and out of her depth and I was surprised when she was appointed AG.
Thanks. I don’t watch any of the telly politics stuff.
Being out of her depth (or at least appearing to be) is not great. But to be honest I could level that accusation at almost every Home Sec of recent decades. And there have been a lot. What is it about this POC Tory Home Sec in particular that so upsets Twitter?
Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.
As the Yougov polling shows, Sunak already polls better than his party. However he also needs to keep the ERG and Redwall on board, hence the appointment of the tough on immigration Braverman as Home Secretary
Good morning
Braverman is a very controversial appointment which has angered opponents, but her appointment is a result of pure politics as her backing of Rishi after Johnson withdrew took the votes away from Mordaunt and to Rishi
However, this is the first morning I can honestly say I am relieved to see the end of the Johnson Truss toxic period and the wider picture is the cabinet is drawn from across the party and it is more united than it has been for a very long time
I would caution those predicting Rishi will have a very short honeymoon not to underestimate the change that has just happened and the effect Rishi is going to have on politics going forward and certainly labour now have a very different opponent
There's none so blind Big_G...
Braverman 19 October 2022: "The business of government relies upon people accepting responsibility for their mistakes. Pretending we haven't made mistakes, carrying on as if everyone can't see that we have made them, and hoping that things will magically come right is not serious polities."
Sunak 25 October 2022: "This government will have integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level." "The Rt Hon Suella Braverman KC MP @SuellaBraverman has been appointed Secretary of State for the Home Department @UKHomeOffice."
Perhaps Patterson and Pitcher could make a comeback?
Foreign Secretary was an absolute car crash on Braverman. @Skynewsniall is right: people will find the notion that this wasn't grubby tit-for-tat an insult to their intelligence. Braverman's record of gaffes belies the idea she's an intellectual giant, indispensable to any gov't. https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1585178779420602376/video/1
Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.
One thing the appointment says to me is that Sunak is not really the nice guy that he has polished his public persona to be. He has a more cultured and personable veneer than Truss, but I don't think his underlying instincts and motivations are very different.
Yes. That’s pretty clear. Nevertheless people seem unable to resist falling for the charming veneer bought that comes with an expensive education.
Is that necessarily a bad thing? At some stage a PM needs some steel. Shit could get real with Russia, and a PM with a nastier side might be an advantage.
Nah. Kind, self-confident, self-aware, and resolute is what you really want. A nasty side, self-delusion or a need to be liked are terrible in leaders. They may be, in some senses "effective", but it never goes well in the end.
I don't particularly want to see Suella Braverman in the Home office, but if it's the price of getting the party to work together and having a functioning government, then I can see the sense of it from Sunak's point of view.
Problem is: the right of the Tory Party can *never* be appeased. They must be crushed into the dust. There is no alternative.
Truss assisted matters by finally killing off the Thatcherite myths. But the U.S. culture wars import is just as dangerous. The far right must be confronted and comprehensively defeated. I just don’t think Sunak is the right man for that job.
I was referring to the latest election result (SNP 64, Con 31, Lab 22, Grn 8, LD 4), not to the next one.
If forced to predict, I’d say that the Scottish Tories will just about manage to achieve 3rd place, on a shocking reduction in vote share, but it’ll be close. The Scottish Lib Dems are going to thoroughly hoover up the Unionist vote in the North East, Borders and perhaps even wealthier suburbs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Unfortunately, from their point of view, the new boundaries are going to totally screw their chances of seat gains, but there’ll be a lot of shock SLD 2nd places.
The Yougov polling gives Sunak a 26% favourable rating in Scotland, actually higher than the 25% the SCons got in 2019
"71% of housewives in East Lancashire and 81% in Hertfordshire expressed an interest in the concept of exotic ice-creams. Only 8% in Hertfordshire and 14% in Lancashire expressed positive hostility, whilst 5% expressed latent hostility. In Hertfordshire, 96% of the 50% who formed 20% of consumer spending were in favour. 0.6% told us where we could put our exotic ice creams."
We ought to keep that and paste it in every time Mini Franco spouts his gobbledygook.
Indeed.
I know it's rather missing the point but I also find it quite amusing that 'exotic ice-creams' have become a major 'thing' many years after poor old Reggie Perrin disappeared for good.
I was referring to the latest election result (SNP 64, Con 31, Lab 22, Grn 8, LD 4), not to the next one.
If forced to predict, I’d say that the Scottish Tories will just about manage to achieve 3rd place, on a shocking reduction in vote share, but it’ll be close. The Scottish Lib Dems are going to thoroughly hoover up the Unionist vote in the North East, Borders and perhaps even wealthier suburbs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Unfortunately, from their point of view, the new boundaries are going to totally screw their chances of seat gains, but there’ll be a lot of shock SLD 2nd places.
The Yougov polling gives Sunak a 26% favourable rating in Scotland, actually higher than the 25% the SCons got in 2019.
Even though his 39% favourable rating UK wide is below the 43% the Tories got overall in 2019. In 1992 of course Major actually gained a seat in Scotland despite losing seats UK wide relative to Thatcher in 1987
Scottish Conservative & Unionist voting intention in last five polls:
16%, 15%, 12%, 15%, 15%
(SCon result at UK GE 2019: 25.1%)
Just cos Sunak is not as wildly unpopular as The Oaf or Truss does not mean you’re going to be getting a 26% share of the vote.
No matter the polling I thought Sturgeon's response to Rishi's appointment and his same day telephone call to her was so refreshing as was his telephone call to Drakeford
Oh, he rang both up pretty pronto? Definite improvement over the last two. I hope it lasts.
Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.
As the Yougov polling shows, Sunak already polls better than his party. However he also needs to keep the ERG and Redwall on board, hence the appointment of the tough on immigration Braverman as Home Secretary
Good morning
Braverman is a very controversial appointment which has angered opponents, but her appointment is a result of pure politics as her backing of Rishi after Johnson withdrew took the votes away from Mordaunt and to Rishi
However, this is the first morning I can honestly say I am relieved to see the end of the Johnson Truss toxic period and the wider picture is the cabinet is drawn from across the party and it is more united than it has been for a very long time
I would caution those predicting Rishi will have a very short honeymoon not to underestimate the change that has just happened and the effect Rishi is going to have on politics going forward and certainly labour now have a very different opponent
It doesn’t look different. Same old tired faces, same old tired manifesto.
To be honest I do not expect you to endorse Rishi as you would not vote conservative anyway, but the wider issue is just how many former conservatives who were appalled by Johnson and Truss now support Rishi and how he appeals across the red wall and the country generally
I've very reluctantly come to the conclusion that it was either Braverman as HS or risking Johnson back as PM.
Those were probably the political choices.
I think Sunak probably expects Braverman to self-immolate at some point whereupon she will be replaced.
Frankly, I'd like Gove in slot as I think he'd sort the boats, and the department, inside 6 months.
The thing with Gove is you're never quite sure what conclusion he will come to. He might easily decide that ID cards are the silver bullet that will cure all ills, and if you disagree you're cast as part of the blob and there's no reasoning with him.
I'd certainly be interested to see what he came up with as Home Secretary, but there'd be a degree of trepidation.
I don't particularly want to see Suella Braverman in the Home office, but if it's the price of getting the party to work together and having a functioning government, then I can see the sense of it from Sunak's point of view.
Problem is: the right of the Tory Party can *never* be appeased. They must be crushed into the dust. There is no alternative.
Truss assisted matters by finally killing off the Thatcherite myths. But the U.S. culture wars import is just as dangerous. The far right must be confronted and comprehensively defeated. I just don’t think Sunak is the right man for that job.
There are no myths, and a budget was never implemented is certainly not going to 'kill off' anything, or frankly even contribute to the debate either way.
I was referring to the latest election result (SNP 64, Con 31, Lab 22, Grn 8, LD 4), not to the next one.
If forced to predict, I’d say that the Scottish Tories will just about manage to achieve 3rd place, on a shocking reduction in vote share, but it’ll be close. The Scottish Lib Dems are going to thoroughly hoover up the Unionist vote in the North East, Borders and perhaps even wealthier suburbs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Unfortunately, from their point of view, the new boundaries are going to totally screw their chances of seat gains, but there’ll be a lot of shock SLD 2nd places.
The Yougov polling gives Sunak a 26% favourable rating in Scotland, actually higher than the 25% the SCons got in 2019.
Even though his 39% favourable rating UK wide is below the 43% the Tories got overall in 2019. In 1992 of course Major actually gained a seat in Scotland despite losing seats UK wide relative to Thatcher in 1987
Scottish Conservative & Unionist voting intention in last five polls:
16%, 15%, 12%, 15%, 15%
(SCon result at UK GE 2019: 25.1%)
Just cos Sunak is not as wildly unpopular as The Oaf or Truss does not mean you’re going to be getting a 26% share of the vote.
No matter the polling I thought Sturgeon's response to Rishi's appointment and his same day telephone call to her was so refreshing as was his telephone call to Drakeford
Oh, he rang both up pretty pronto? Definite improvement over the last two. I hope it lasts.
Little noted yesterday. Sunak has put a close friend in politics - Robert Jenrick - in the immigration brief below Braverman. One PM ally says it’s “to keep Suella in check”.
I was referring to the latest election result (SNP 64, Con 31, Lab 22, Grn 8, LD 4), not to the next one.
If forced to predict, I’d say that the Scottish Tories will just about manage to achieve 3rd place, on a shocking reduction in vote share, but it’ll be close. The Scottish Lib Dems are going to thoroughly hoover up the Unionist vote in the North East, Borders and perhaps even wealthier suburbs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Unfortunately, from their point of view, the new boundaries are going to totally screw their chances of seat gains, but there’ll be a lot of shock SLD 2nd places.
The Yougov polling gives Sunak a 26% favourable rating in Scotland, actually higher than the 25% the SCons got in 2019.
Even though his 39% favourable rating UK wide is below the 43% the Tories got overall in 2019. In 1992 of course Major actually gained a seat in Scotland despite losing seats UK wide relative to Thatcher in 1987
Scottish Conservative & Unionist voting intention in last five polls:
16%, 15%, 12%, 15%, 15%
(SCon result at UK GE 2019: 25.1%)
Just cos Sunak is not as wildly unpopular as The Oaf or Truss does not mean you’re going to be getting a 26% share of the vote.
No matter the polling I thought Sturgeon's response to Rishi's appointment and his same day telephone call to her was so refreshing as was his telephone call to Drakeford
Absolutely! I 100% agree (see my post upthread).
The adults have finally entered the room they exited in 2016.
Now, to N Ireland: has he picked up the phone to the First Minister-designate of N Ireland, Michelle O'Neill, yet? That’s the real test of Sunak’s statesmanship.
Furthermore, Boris MUST have been rewarded by Sunak for dropping out. Must have been. He wouldn't give a key role to Braverman and fail to reward Boris for dropping out. The nature of that reward, we'll see in time I suppose.
That rather assumes Johnson dropped out through choice. I think it far more likely he had nothing like 100 backers.
I agree, that seemed the likeliest, but then it was confirmed that he did.
In the interests of party unity, I might have confirmed that too, in their position.
I suppose that's a possibility.
The thing is, we have to take their word for it, because they (quite rightly if it was an anonymous nomination procedure). And while I don't like to assume that they would directly lie, I think we are well past that point; I don't trust them not to say what can't be proven false, if it is in their interests.
How the political and media class comes back from this, I don't know - but the next generation of politicians are going to require a great deal more transparency and simplicity to win back my trust, at least.
I was referring to the latest election result (SNP 64, Con 31, Lab 22, Grn 8, LD 4), not to the next one.
If forced to predict, I’d say that the Scottish Tories will just about manage to achieve 3rd place, on a shocking reduction in vote share, but it’ll be close. The Scottish Lib Dems are going to thoroughly hoover up the Unionist vote in the North East, Borders and perhaps even wealthier suburbs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Unfortunately, from their point of view, the new boundaries are going to totally screw their chances of seat gains, but there’ll be a lot of shock SLD 2nd places.
The Yougov polling gives Sunak a 26% favourable rating in Scotland, actually higher than the 25% the SCons got in 2019
"71% of housewives in East Lancashire and 81% in Hertfordshire expressed an interest in the concept of exotic ice-creams. Only 8% in Hertfordshire and 14% in Lancashire expressed positive hostility, whilst 5% expressed latent hostility. In Hertfordshire, 96% of the 50% who formed 20% of consumer spending were in favour. 0.6% told us where we could put our exotic ice creams."
We ought to keep that and paste it in every time Mini Franco spouts his gobbledygook.
Not least because the Yougov polling choice was restricted to Tory candidates etc. "Least Worst?" Not comparable to voting intention in a GE at all.
Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.
One thing the appointment says to me is that Sunak is not really the nice guy that he has polished his public persona to be. He has a more cultured and personable veneer than Truss, but I don't think his underlying instincts and motivations are very different.
As CofE, he had a bit of a get-out by talking about collective responsibility - asylum and immigration wasn't his department.
But as PM, he theoretically could stop all this. If the UK is serious about growing the economy, we need more workers. The Rwanda scheme is an overpriced scam that can't work in the agreed form (as well as being a disgrace).
The best you can say is that he's weaker than Truss, who did at least try and put Braverman back in her box over visa numbers. The worst possibility is that he actively wants this stuff.
The problem isn't that we need workers - we need intelligent skilled workers. And given the choice of going to the UK or somewhere else (say America or somewhere in Europe) there is little incentive for the really intelligent immigrants to come here (except possibly IT in London and even then that the second choice compared to the US.
Calais and illegal immigrants are a completely separate issue - attached to the point that few countries anywhere want uneducated young men - they don't exactly add value to the workforce.
Who says they're uneducated? If their family have the resources to pay people smugglers they probably also had the resources to pay for their education. And right now we have record low unemployment and labour shortages across the economy, not just for brain surgeons and rocket scientists. I was listening to Cleverly on the radio this morning extolling the benefits of controlled immigration. But there was no information on how that control would be exercised - how sectors with labour shortages would be identified and prioritised, how flexible and nimble that could be, what criteria would be applied, how political meddling could be avoided etc. It always seems odd to me that people who otherwise want the government out of their lives think that this is the one area where government interference is far superior to the private sector in terms of allocating resources. I see no evidence of the government being effective in this area, but plenty of evidence of labour shortages that are thwarting economic growth and creating inflation.
For too many Tory MPs and their voters, controlled migration = no migration.
I've very reluctantly come to the conclusion that it was either Braverman as HS or risking Johnson back as PM.
Those were probably the political choices.
I think Sunak probably expects Braverman to self-immolate at some point whereupon she will be replaced.
Frankly, I'd like Gove in slot as I think he'd sort the boats, and the department, inside 6 months.
I wonder when you were laying into Truss, whether you thought you'd be making lame excuses for Sunak a day into his premiership. Oh well.
You seem to see me as some sort of "traitor" to Adam Smith/Hayek who's sold-out to a high-tax high-spending globalist consensus.
Nah. I am a right-wing Conservative who recognised Truss and her tin-ear as an absolute disaster for our party.
She tried to launch a 1988 budget in the conditions of 1979, and as if deficits didn't matter. She was dogmatic and naïve. She was obstinate. She was foolish. And she seems unrepentant too. That doesn't make me some sort of wet you need to dry out. It makes me realistic - she's probably shat the bed for low tax for 20 yrs now.
She was nothing like Thatcher who was a consummate politician and both Thatcher, and Nigel Lawson, would agree with that.
I don't particularly want to see Suella Braverman in the Home office, but if it's the price of getting the party to work together and having a functioning government, then I can see the sense of it from Sunak's point of view.
How does "Suella Braverman in the Home Office" go with "having a functioning government"?
I don't particularly want to see Suella Braverman in the Home office, but if it's the price of getting the party to work together and having a functioning government, then I can see the sense of it from Sunak's point of view.
Problem is: the right of the Tory Party can *never* be appeased. They must be crushed into the dust. There is no alternative.
Truss assisted matters by finally killing off the Thatcherite myths. But the U.S. culture wars import is just as dangerous. The far right must be confronted and comprehensively defeated. I just don’t think Sunak is the right man for that job.
There are no myths, and a budget was never implemented is certainly not going to 'kill off' anything, or frankly even contribute to the debate either way.
The budget certainly killed of the Truss version of the Thatcher legend, you have to admit, however.
I was referring to the latest election result (SNP 64, Con 31, Lab 22, Grn 8, LD 4), not to the next one.
If forced to predict, I’d say that the Scottish Tories will just about manage to achieve 3rd place, on a shocking reduction in vote share, but it’ll be close. The Scottish Lib Dems are going to thoroughly hoover up the Unionist vote in the North East, Borders and perhaps even wealthier suburbs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Unfortunately, from their point of view, the new boundaries are going to totally screw their chances of seat gains, but there’ll be a lot of shock SLD 2nd places.
The Yougov polling gives Sunak a 26% favourable rating in Scotland, actually higher than the 25% the SCons got in 2019
"71% of housewives in East Lancashire and 81% in Hertfordshire expressed an interest in the concept of exotic ice-creams. Only 8% in Hertfordshire and 14% in Lancashire expressed positive hostility, whilst 5% expressed latent hostility. In Hertfordshire, 96% of the 50% who formed 20% of consumer spending were in favour. 0.6% told us where we could put our exotic ice creams."
We ought to keep that and paste it in every time Mini Franco spouts his gobbledygook.
Indeed.
I know it's rather missing the point but I also find it quite amusing that 'exotic ice-creams' have become a major 'thing' many years after poor old Reggie Perrin disappeared for good.
Showing your age! 😄
That was a true cult classic. What on earth is it with “Only Fools and Horses”?? It was pretty shite at the time, only marginally improving during the later series, but it is getting hyped beyond belief. I’ve never re-watched it after the original broadcasts. Some theatre even has a bloody musical(?!) on it down at Haymarket. WTF.
Was running a fever yday so everything admittedly seemed weird but still rubbing my eyes at Braverman. How to undermine your ‘return to integrity & competence’ pitch within minutes of making it.
I was referring to the latest election result (SNP 64, Con 31, Lab 22, Grn 8, LD 4), not to the next one.
If forced to predict, I’d say that the Scottish Tories will just about manage to achieve 3rd place, on a shocking reduction in vote share, but it’ll be close. The Scottish Lib Dems are going to thoroughly hoover up the Unionist vote in the North East, Borders and perhaps even wealthier suburbs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Unfortunately, from their point of view, the new boundaries are going to totally screw their chances of seat gains, but there’ll be a lot of shock SLD 2nd places.
The Yougov polling gives Sunak a 26% favourable rating in Scotland, actually higher than the 25% the SCons got in 2019
"71% of housewives in East Lancashire and 81% in Hertfordshire expressed an interest in the concept of exotic ice-creams. Only 8% in Hertfordshire and 14% in Lancashire expressed positive hostility, whilst 5% expressed latent hostility. In Hertfordshire, 96% of the 50% who formed 20% of consumer spending were in favour. 0.6% told us where we could put our exotic ice creams."
We ought to keep that and paste it in every time Mini Franco spouts his gobbledygook.
Not least because the Yougov polling choice was restricted to Tory candidates etc. "Least Worst?" Not comparable to voting intention in a GE at all.
His mendacity approaches Oaf levels.
Did you see him ramping that recent MRP map showing Scotland all red? As if it was a representation of voting intention. He is utterly shameless.
I was referring to the latest election result (SNP 64, Con 31, Lab 22, Grn 8, LD 4), not to the next one.
If forced to predict, I’d say that the Scottish Tories will just about manage to achieve 3rd place, on a shocking reduction in vote share, but it’ll be close. The Scottish Lib Dems are going to thoroughly hoover up the Unionist vote in the North East, Borders and perhaps even wealthier suburbs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Unfortunately, from their point of view, the new boundaries are going to totally screw their chances of seat gains, but there’ll be a lot of shock SLD 2nd places.
The Yougov polling gives Sunak a 26% favourable rating in Scotland, actually higher than the 25% the SCons got in 2019.
Even though his 39% favourable rating UK wide is below the 43% the Tories got overall in 2019. In 1992 of course Major actually gained a seat in Scotland despite losing seats UK wide relative to Thatcher in 1987
Scottish Conservative & Unionist voting intention in last five polls:
16%, 15%, 12%, 15%, 15%
(SCon result at UK GE 2019: 25.1%)
Just cos Sunak is not as wildly unpopular as The Oaf or Truss does not mean you’re going to be getting a 26% share of the vote.
No matter the polling I thought Sturgeon's response to Rishi's appointment and his same day telephone call to her was so refreshing as was his telephone call to Drakeford
Absolutely! I 100% agree (see my post upthread).
The adults have finally entered the room they exited in 2016.
Now, to N Ireland: has he picked up the phone to the First Minister-designate of N Ireland, Michelle O'Neill, yet? That’s the real test of Sunak’s statesmanship.
Latter doesn't seem to have been done yet. He'd better extract digit soon even if he has been having a busy day. Would be shame to spoil things.
I don't particularly want to see Suella Braverman in the Home office, but if it's the price of getting the party to work together and having a functioning government, then I can see the sense of it from Sunak's point of view.
It seems unlikely that was the case. If it is, then Sunak is in a much weaker position than I thought.
I don't particularly want to see Suella Braverman in the Home office, but if it's the price of getting the party to work together and having a functioning government, then I can see the sense of it from Sunak's point of view.
How does "Suella Braverman in the Home Office" go with "having a functioning government"?
Because without her endorsement, presumably we’d be back to looking at a Johnson return
I've very reluctantly come to the conclusion that it was either Braverman as HS or risking Johnson back as PM.
Those were probably the political choices.
I think Sunak probably expects Braverman to self-immolate at some point whereupon she will be replaced.
Frankly, I'd like Gove in slot as I think he'd sort the boats, and the department, inside 6 months.
I wonder when you were laying into Truss, whether you thought you'd be making lame excuses for Sunak a day into his premiership. Oh well.
You seem to see me as some sort of "traitor" to Adam Smith/Hayek who's sold-out to a high-tax high-spending globalist consensus.
Nah. I am a right-wing Conservative who recognised Truss and her tin-ear as an absolute disaster for our party.
She tried to launch a 1988 budget in the conditions of 1979, and as if deficits didn't matter. She was dogmatic and naïve. She was obstinate. She was foolish. And she seems unrepentant too. That doesn't make me some sort of wet you need to dry out. It makes me realistic - she's probably shat the bed for low tax for 20 yrs now.
She was nothing like Thatcher who was a consummate politician and both Thatcher, and Nigel Lawson, would agree with that.
If Truss has 'shat the bed for low tax for 20 yrs' then I'm actually glad. I just cannot see a sane way where 'low tax' is a practical and sustainable way forward for the UK. Austerity is fine; but you can only apply it so far before the system breaks. Growth cannot be commanded; only encouraged.
I see taxes as needing to rise a little. But I want any increased taxes to be spent *very* carefully. Yes, I know...
I was referring to the latest election result (SNP 64, Con 31, Lab 22, Grn 8, LD 4), not to the next one.
If forced to predict, I’d say that the Scottish Tories will just about manage to achieve 3rd place, on a shocking reduction in vote share, but it’ll be close. The Scottish Lib Dems are going to thoroughly hoover up the Unionist vote in the North East, Borders and perhaps even wealthier suburbs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Unfortunately, from their point of view, the new boundaries are going to totally screw their chances of seat gains, but there’ll be a lot of shock SLD 2nd places.
The Yougov polling gives Sunak a 26% favourable rating in Scotland, actually higher than the 25% the SCons got in 2019
"71% of housewives in East Lancashire and 81% in Hertfordshire expressed an interest in the concept of exotic ice-creams. Only 8% in Hertfordshire and 14% in Lancashire expressed positive hostility, whilst 5% expressed latent hostility. In Hertfordshire, 96% of the 50% who formed 20% of consumer spending were in favour. 0.6% told us where we could put our exotic ice creams."
We ought to keep that and paste it in every time Mini Franco spouts his gobbledygook.
Indeed.
I know it's rather missing the point but I also find it quite amusing that 'exotic ice-creams' have become a major 'thing' many years after poor old Reggie Perrin disappeared for good.
Showing your age! 😄
That was a true cult classic. What on earth is it with “Only Fools and Horses”?? It was pretty shite at the time, only marginally improving during the later series, but it is getting hyped beyond belief. I’ve never re-watched it after the original broadcasts. Some theatre even has a bloody musical(?!) on it down at Haymarket. WTF.
Only Fools and Horses is a much simpler, less intellectual comedy...
..surprised it's not right up your street really. ;-)
Was running a fever yday so everything admittedly seemed weird but still rubbing my eyes at Braverman. How to undermine your ‘return to integrity & competence’ pitch within minutes of making it.
I was referring to the latest election result (SNP 64, Con 31, Lab 22, Grn 8, LD 4), not to the next one.
If forced to predict, I’d say that the Scottish Tories will just about manage to achieve 3rd place, on a shocking reduction in vote share, but it’ll be close. The Scottish Lib Dems are going to thoroughly hoover up the Unionist vote in the North East, Borders and perhaps even wealthier suburbs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Unfortunately, from their point of view, the new boundaries are going to totally screw their chances of seat gains, but there’ll be a lot of shock SLD 2nd places.
The Yougov polling gives Sunak a 26% favourable rating in Scotland, actually higher than the 25% the SCons got in 2019
"71% of housewives in East Lancashire and 81% in Hertfordshire expressed an interest in the concept of exotic ice-creams. Only 8% in Hertfordshire and 14% in Lancashire expressed positive hostility, whilst 5% expressed latent hostility. In Hertfordshire, 96% of the 50% who formed 20% of consumer spending were in favour. 0.6% told us where we could put our exotic ice creams."
We ought to keep that and paste it in every time Mini Franco spouts his gobbledygook.
Not least because the Yougov polling choice was restricted to Tory candidates etc. "Least Worst?" Not comparable to voting intention in a GE at all.
His mendacity approaches Oaf levels.
Did you see him ramping that recent MRP map showing Scotland all red? As if it was a representation of voting intention. He is utterly shameless.
"98% of cats prefer Moggy budget catfood to dog shite."
I suspect this may be close to a high point for him. Let's see where we are in 2 weeks.
The key for him is probably to try and run against his party's past, in the way that both May and Johnson tried and was at least partly successful for both of them, at least initially.
However I wonder whether Sunak has it in him to adopt such a strategy, which is politically quite cynical and doesn't sit well with his pledge to return to more honest politics - and also sits unhappily with his cabinet appointments which don't exactly scream new broom.
Nevertheless if he could pull off a pitch along the lines of "my economic competence will sort out Truss's toxic economic inheritance" and "my honesty and integrity will sort out Johnson's toxic political inheritance", it is his best chance of getting more of the public on his side.
One more thought about reshuffle. Sunak’s 1st cabinet v much about binding in different wings of party (Braverman), different bases (Coffey, Cleverly, CHH), & own team (Dowden, Stride, Williamson). No 10 insider told me last night can switch in year if things settle down (if)
Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.
The right-wing in the Tory party is strong. Indeed, Sunak is of that right-wing. The idea that he would be a relative centrist and marginalise the right was a fantasy created by the personal antipathy shown to Sunak by the Johnson loyalists.
It's a mistake to view this as something Sunak was forced into. If it wasn't Braverman it would have been Patel, or someone else who would try to make them both look like pinko liberals.
I don't, therefore, see this as particularly significant. Everything hinges on the fiscal statement on All Hallows Eve. That needs to pass three tests.
1. Not spook the markets. 2. Survive contact with the Tory backbenches. 3. Avoid providing any political gifts for Labour.
Ideally it would also improve the long-term state of the economy and avoid wrecking public services, but the more minimal list of tests was too much for Truss and Kwarteng, and if Sunak/Hunt can manage it then they've a fair chance of making it to Christmas.
Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.
One thing the appointment says to me is that Sunak is not really the nice guy that he has polished his public persona to be. He has a more cultured and personable veneer than Truss, but I don't think his underlying instincts and motivations are very different.
As CofE, he had a bit of a get-out by talking about collective responsibility - asylum and immigration wasn't his department.
But as PM, he theoretically could stop all this. If the UK is serious about growing the economy, we need more workers. The Rwanda scheme is an overpriced scam that can't work in the agreed form (as well as being a disgrace).
The best you can say is that he's weaker than Truss, who did at least try and put Braverman back in her box over visa numbers. The worst possibility is that he actively wants this stuff.
The problem isn't that we need workers - we need intelligent skilled workers. And given the choice of going to the UK or somewhere else (say America or somewhere in Europe) there is little incentive for the really intelligent immigrants to come here (except possibly IT in London and even then that the second choice compared to the US.
Calais and illegal immigrants are a completely separate issue - attached to the point that few countries anywhere want uneducated young men - they don't exactly add value to the workforce.
Less skilled workers would be very useful in care homes. They have empty beds that could be used to unblock hospital beds if they could get the staff.
Sadly those arriving on the Kent beaches don't look to be an obvious fit for these roles.
I don't particularly want to see Suella Braverman in the Home office, but if it's the price of getting the party to work together and having a functioning government, then I can see the sense of it from Sunak's point of view.
How does "Suella Braverman in the Home Office" go with "having a functioning government"?
Because without her endorsement, presumably we’d be back to looking at a Johnson return
Well, he should have held out the promise of HS then, once elected, checked the Cabinet Secretary report of what Sue-ellen did and told her 'Sorry, you'll have to wait six months at least'.
How does it happen. "Anneliese we need you to attack the Tories over female representation". "OK Keir. But you're a...". "Yeah, I know...". "And Jeremy was...". "Yes, yes...". "And Ed and Gordon and Tony and John and Neil and...". "OK, will you just go and do it please...".
I suspect this may be close to a high point for him. Let's see where we are in 2 weeks.
The key for him is probably to try and run against his party's past, in the way that both May and Johnson tried and was at least partly successful for both of them, at least initially.
However I wonder whether Sunak has it in him to adopt such a strategy, which is politically quite cynical and doesn't sit well with his pledge to return to more honest politics - and also sits unhappily with his cabinet appointments which don't exactly scream new broom.
Nevertheless if he could pull off a pitch along the lines of "my economic competence will sort out Truss's toxic economic inheritance" and "my honesty and integrity will sort out Johnson's toxic political inheritance", it is his best chance of getting more of the public on his side.
Running against your party's past becomes progressively more difficult now you have 4 successive leaders to be against. Which one is he in opposition to exactly?
Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.
As the Yougov polling shows, Sunak already polls better than his party. However he also needs to keep the ERG and Redwall on board, hence the appointment of the tough on immigration Braverman as Home Secretary
Is it not possible to be tough on immigration without creating an unpleasant culture war about it?
I don't particularly want to see Suella Braverman in the Home office, but if it's the price of getting the party to work together and having a functioning government, then I can see the sense of it from Sunak's point of view.
How does "Suella Braverman in the Home Office" go with "having a functioning government"?
Because without her endorsement, presumably we’d be back to looking at a Johnson return
It is also true that almost every Home Secretary is fecking dislikable.
And that is before they get to the Home Office.
Its culture seems to amplify any authoritarian and repressive instincts in the minister, so they become monstrous.
Michael Howard, John Reid, David Blunkett, Charles Clarke, Theresa May, Priti Patel, Suella Braverman ... it is not a pretty list. Thugs and fools and tyrants all.
Furthermore, Boris MUST have been rewarded by Sunak for dropping out. Must have been. He wouldn't give a key role to Braverman and fail to reward Boris for dropping out. The nature of that reward, we'll see in time I suppose.
As Mr Tubbs says, it's possible Johnson didn't have the noms, and everything we've heard to the contrary is face-saving lies from him and his allies (remembering that almost all of Guido's 'anons' - which included the '22 committee members - apparently broke for Johnson).
The two obvious carrots for Johnson are a promise of being dropped into a safe seat and a promise of some sort of sinecure role, most obviously to do with Ukraine. Or, I suppose, some sort of promise to get him off (or steer toward a lesser penalty) at the Privileges Committee? We'll know in due course whether any of these comes to pass.
But my guess is that Johnson was 'persuaded' to stand down essentially with threats, as I predicted back on Friday before the weekend's campaigning. There is a whole stack of possible levers they could have pulled, and probably others of which we are unaware, and if he was made an offer he could not refuse, we will probably never know what it was.
I don't particularly want to see Suella Braverman in the Home office, but if it's the price of getting the party to work together and having a functioning government, then I can see the sense of it from Sunak's point of view.
How does "Suella Braverman in the Home Office" go with "having a functioning government"?
Because without her endorsement, presumably we’d be back to looking at a Johnson return
It is also true that almost every Home Secretary is fecking dislikable.
And that is before they get to the Home Office.
Its culture seems to amplify any authoritarian and repressive instincts in the minister, so they become monstrous.
Michael Howard, John Reid, David Blunkett, Charles Clarke, Theresa May, Priti Patel, Suella Braverman ... it is not a pretty list. Thugs and fools and tyrants all.
Suella Braverman did not mistakenly leak a meaningless document. She endlessly consulted a maverick. She deliberately emailed a policy doc not yet agreed to her pvt email. Then she sent it to John Hayes and someone she thought was his wife. Then lied to PM about when it was sent https://mobile.twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1584939423703396352
I don't particularly want to see Suella Braverman in the Home office, but if it's the price of getting the party to work together and having a functioning government, then I can see the sense of it from Sunak's point of view.
Problem is: the right of the Tory Party can *never* be appeased. They must be crushed into the dust. There is no alternative.
Truss assisted matters by finally killing off the Thatcherite myths. But the U.S. culture wars import is just as dangerous. The far right must be confronted and comprehensively defeated. I just don’t think Sunak is the right man for that job.
The current Swedish government of course depends on far right Sweden Democrats support to stay in power. You haven't moved yet!
Controversial point I am sure but 3 of the 4 so-called great offices of state are held by ethnic minorites and 3 out of 4 were under the Government Truss formed a few weeks ago.
What would the reaction in places like the Mail if that had been a Labour Government?
I don't particularly want to see Suella Braverman in the Home office, but if it's the price of getting the party to work together and having a functioning government, then I can see the sense of it from Sunak's point of view.
How does "Suella Braverman in the Home Office" go with "having a functioning government"?
Because without her endorsement, presumably we’d be back to looking at a Johnson return
It is also true that almost every Home Secretary is fecking dislikable.
And that is before they get to the Home Office.
Its culture seems to amplify any authoritarian and repressive instincts in the minister, so they become monstrous.
Michael Howard, John Reid, David Blunkett, Charles Clarke, Theresa May, Priti Patel, Suella Braverman ... it is not a pretty list. Thugs and fools and tyrants all.
Indeed, it seems a lightning rod for the worst of the worst, in all parties.
Ken Clarke only exception I can think of in my lifetime, but even that was before I was old enough to follow politics and even then he was only there a few months before he moved on.
The last decent Home Secretary seems to have been Roy Jenkins - and that was before many of us on this site were even born.
Pity it's clearly nonsensical, migrants aren't camping in Calais because they want to flee a rich country to get to a poor country, nor do young Spaniards and Italians flock to London because the streets of Lisbon are paved with gold.
You didn’t read it, did you?
Go on, tell us why Britain is much poorer than France, then.
Well, it’s got you in it for a start. Apart from that, just read the piece.
Not a lot of cold, hard facts there. The rise of hand car washes is surely more to do with unchecked immigration from Eastern Europe than a failure to automate car washes.
That the UK has lower productivity than peers in Europe and is falling behind further is well documented. UK median incomes after housing were amongst the highest in Europe before the GFC, now in the lower half and falling further relatively. This is directly attributable to two Conservative government policies: Cameron/Osborne austerity and Brexit. I would say the article is spot on.
DIsclosure: I thought austerity was necessary back in 2010. I now realise I was mistaken
This is effectively saying that the median UK household is worse off relative to other European countries due to higher house prices, which is surely not right, on the contrary, most households gain from higher house prices because they get housing equity that they can liquidate for spending in retirement, unlike the typical German renter who needs to invest in ultra-safe pensions.
But this is the problem ffs! In very simple terms, everyone on high incomes AHC in the UK tends to be a no-mortgage Tory with no dependents. Huge wealth and disposable income. And nothing to do with it.
Meanwhile, someone like me has to chuck a huge amount of our salary into a mortgage or rent. We don't then have the money left over to go for a Masters degree or Further education, lowering our productivity. Or we don't have the spare cash to move to another part of the country to match our skills with a better job.
Some of us, like me, get a big chunk of money off our parents for the flat and/or the Masters. This entrenches generational inequality, further disincentivising people who are high-performers from even bothering to make something of themselves.
Productivity growth dies. No one has money to have kids, so the fertility rate drops. There is reduced working-age population which gets squeezed harder and harder to serve an older generation which, due to technological advances and an increase in chronic conditions, requires a huge number of carers (further reducing the working population).
The UK enters a death spiral and everyone sensible moves to somewhere that isn't going to get fucked by climate change.
This is what I did. Moved somewhere else where I got paid 60% more for the same job I did in the UK.
I'm moving to Aus in July/August.
Great move! An old school/rugby colleague of mine moved his family to Australia a few years ago. It was a big success. My only worry is if/when air travel becomes so prohibitively expensive that Aus/NZ get “cut off”. Back to steamers?
I have never for one moment regretted emigrating to Sweden. I absolutely love it here. Unfortunately I don’t think that I come up to @WillG ’s high standards - “moved somewhere else where I got paid 60% more for the same job I did in the UK” - but maybe 40% more, and the other benefits just blow Scotland out the water, eg:
- ridiculously long holidays + other time off (eg parental leave and time off to care for sick children) - short working hours (I have almost never worked more than 35 hours a week, often considerably less, all for F/T salary) - ridiculously short commuting times (approximately 17 minutes at present) and plenty of working from home - powerful trade unions that genuinely look after my interests - a clean, safe, attractive environment - outstanding library services that are so good I almost never need to buy a book or magazine ( anything they don’t already have, they order for me) - world class sports facilities and coaching - safe cycling - the gorgeous nature, coast, landscapes - sane, pleasant politicians - competent public services - media who are not habitual liars - beautiful seafood - sensible alcohol and drug environment - outstanding public transport - great schools and universities - I could go on all day
Obviously, Scotland can beat Sweden in various ways too. Few things in life are all gain and no pain. I miss my old mum and my old friends for example. And nowhere in Sweden is as gorgeous as Harris, Orkney or Ardnamurchan on a good day. The fresh smell of the Atlantic Ocean is unparalleled
I've always enjoyed my visits to Sweden for work and pleasure, and the Swedes are a pleasure to work with - they are very smart and the media definitely seems to pitch at a much higher level of intelligence than ours does. The one thing that I have always struggled with, though, is the reserve. They seem not to say a lot of stuff they may be thinking. And the mosquitos. They are sheer hell. But the light blue of the Swedish sky in summer and the dark blue of those Swedish lakes, that is magical. I also think the Swedish flag is the most beautiful in the world.
There is also a grim melancholia to Swedish people, with a rather austere and harsh Lutheran culture. Something that either you feel in tune with, or not. I am fine with it, but I can understand why others find "the Germans of the North" difficult.
Yes, you’ve both hit the nail on the head there. Never heard “the Germans of the North” term before, but there is a lot of truth in it. Modern Swedes try desperately to disguise their close bonds with Germany, going back to the dawn of history and almost certainly long before, but such profound cultural similarities cannot forever be suppressed.
Lutheranism: absolutely! Both for good and ill. They pretend they are irreligious, but you’ll never meet a bigger bunch of moralists in your life. My wife for example almost never crosses the threshold of a church, but the Lutheran work ethic is embedded in her soul like a stick of rock.
Melancholia: yepp. Especially in the rural bits. Of course, the upside is that they despise melodrama: it makes them feel uncomfortable.
Austere and harsh culture? No, not really. But then unless you’ve mastered the language (which is actually surprisingly easy) then I can understand why one might think that.
A pleasure to work with? Yepp. Bloody hard working and dependable. But after 4pm Monday-Thursday and 3pm on a Friday, or anytime between late June and late August: good luck getting anyone to answer a phone or email. Ditto the “red days” and the innumerable ”klämdagar”.
They are very smart? Yepp. And emotionally intelligent. They make your average Englishman look like an adolescent.
The media definitely seems to pitch at a much higher level of intelligence than ours does? Oh yes. And then some.
The reserve? Yes. This is hard for outsiders to get used to. It mostly explains why they have had such horrific problems integrating some immigrants.
They seem not to say a lot of stuff they may be thinking? Ho ho. Indeed! Good luck guessing what a Swede is *really* thinking. They are so quiet cos they hate being rude 😄
And the mosquitos. They are sheer hell? Only in the far north. Have you never met a Scottish cleg or midge?
But the light blue of the Swedish sky in summer and the dark blue of those Swedish lakes, that is magical? Exquisite. Stunning beyond comprehension.
I also think the Swedish flag is the most beautiful in the world? I love it. It is my flag, almost as much as the cherished Saltire.
Are Swedes any more similar to Germans than the English are to Germans? Or the Swedes are to the English?
- Is there really such a thing as Lutheran work ethic? I'm unconvinced.
- Reserved? Sounds more like Brits than Germans, I would say.
- Don't say what they are really thinking? Ditto. Most Germans are rarely shy about letting you know what they think.
- Melancholia? Again, can't see this as something that is more German than British.
- Mosquitoes in the north? Just like Britain.
Can't really comment on emotional intelligence. Dependability is a valued quality in Germany, so that is maybe one similarity.
I've very reluctantly come to the conclusion that it was either Braverman as HS or risking Johnson back as PM.
Those were probably the political choices.
I think Sunak probably expects Braverman to self-immolate at some point whereupon she will be replaced.
Frankly, I'd like Gove in slot as I think he'd sort the boats, and the department, inside 6 months.
I wonder when you were laying into Truss, whether you thought you'd be making lame excuses for Sunak a day into his premiership. Oh well.
You seem to see me as some sort of "traitor" to Adam Smith/Hayek who's sold-out to a high-tax high-spending globalist consensus.
Nah. I am a right-wing Conservative who recognised Truss and her tin-ear as an absolute disaster for our party.
She tried to launch a 1988 budget in the conditions of 1979, and as if deficits didn't matter. She was dogmatic and naïve. She was obstinate. She was foolish. And she seems unrepentant too. That doesn't make me some sort of wet you need to dry out. It makes me realistic - she's probably shat the bed for low tax for 20 yrs now.
She was nothing like Thatcher who was a consummate politician and both Thatcher, and Nigel Lawson, would agree with that.
If Truss has 'shat the bed for low tax for 20 yrs' then I'm actually glad. I just cannot see a sane way where 'low tax' is a practical and sustainable way forward for the UK. Austerity is fine; but you can only apply it so far before the system breaks. Growth cannot be commanded; only encouraged.
I see taxes as needing to rise a little. But I want any increased taxes to be spent *very* carefully. Yes, I know...
I think you can lower taxes once the deficit is under control, and a higher growth rate has been achieved.
This is the "sharing the proceeds of growth" approach that Cameron outlined in 2010.
I think working people are overtaxed, NI is too high and a tax on jobs, income tax thresholds need to start rising with earnings again, the 40p rate kicks-in too low, and the 100-120k tax trap zone is a mess causing all sorts of knock-on implications.
I really draw the line at the media hounding Braverman at her own home
No politicians home should feature in the media, not least for their own security
Absolutely. Though there has to be allowance for protest, not where they live!
Was some flap up here from Tories very angry about a protest organised outside Banff and Buchan Conservatives office on Thursday lunchtime. Inference was that it would threaten staff inside.
Except that B&B Tory office is literally next door to the police station. So its hardly going to kick off, or even block the Tory staff in as doing so would block the police access to the station...
One more thought about reshuffle. Sunak’s 1st cabinet v much about binding in different wings of party (Braverman), different bases (Coffey, Cleverly, CHH), & own team (Dowden, Stride, Williamson). No 10 insider told me last night can switch in year if things settle down (if)
Rather bold. A week with things settled down would be a decent starting point.
Could Rishi get SB to resign again by requiring her to return Paddington Bear from Rwanda if she wishes to remain HS?
There are lots of moderate voters who back Rishi as a decent man, one of the few who could see their way through the economic crisis and supportive of Hunt and co but are repelled by UKIP/BNP migrant/refugee policies.
I think Anneliese Dodd's has clearly forgotten about Liz Truss, and the previous 2 female Tory PMs, already. Selectively forgetting the fact that Labour have never had anyone as a leader other than white, middle-aged men.
Just one in five of the ministers around Rishi Sunak’s Cabinet table are women.
I know the Conservatives struggle to add up, but women make up half the population.
I don't particularly want to see Suella Braverman in the Home office, but if it's the price of getting the party to work together and having a functioning government, then I can see the sense of it from Sunak's point of view.
How does "Suella Braverman in the Home Office" go with "having a functioning government"?
Because without her endorsement, presumably we’d be back to looking at a Johnson return
Again: 1. Sunak promises her return 2. Sunak is appointed PM 3. Sunak is very sorry but having been fully briefed he is unable to appoint her after all
Suella Braverman did not mistakenly leak a meaningless document. She endlessly consulted a maverick. She deliberately emailed a policy doc not yet agreed to her pvt email. Then she sent it to John Hayes and someone she thought was his wife. Then lied to PM about when it was sent https://mobile.twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1584939423703396352
Yes, I was speaking to a civil servant friend of mine who was really surprised about her resignation letter because that sort of thing (using personal emails for work stuff) happens all the time (even though it technically shouldn't). This bigger story - consulting some outside entity on unpublished government policy and copying in his wife - is significantly worse than that.
Tories can spin it however they like . The fact is Sunak stood on the integrity ticket and then reinstated Braverman who was caught lying to the previous PM.
There are other Tories who might be equally hardline on immigration who could have been put into her job . So it’s clear that they did a deal and Sunak was too weak and caved in .
I really draw the line at the media hounding Braverman at her own home
No politicians home should feature in the media, not least for their own security
Absolutely. Though there has to be allowance for protest, not where they live!
Was some flap up here from Tories very angry about a protest organised outside Banff and Buchan Conservatives office on Thursday lunchtime. Inference was that it would threaten staff inside.
Except that B&B Tory office is literally next door to the police station. So its hardly going to kick off, or even block the Tory staff in as doing so would block the police access to the station...
The constituency office is very different to a politicians private residence and I believe it should be illegal for the medis to identify any politician's private home
I think Anneliese Dodd's has clearly forgotten about Liz Truss, and the previous 2 female Tory PMs, already. Selectively forgetting the fact that Labour have never had anyone as a leader other than white, middle-aged men.
Just one in five of the ministers around Rishi Sunak’s Cabinet table are women.
I know the Conservatives struggle to add up, but women make up half the population.
Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.
One thing the appointment says to me is that Sunak is not really the nice guy that he has polished his public persona to be. He has a more cultured and personable veneer than Truss, but I don't think his underlying instincts and motivations are very different.
As CofE, he had a bit of a get-out by talking about collective responsibility - asylum and immigration wasn't his department.
But as PM, he theoretically could stop all this. If the UK is serious about growing the economy, we need more workers. The Rwanda scheme is an overpriced scam that can't work in the agreed form (as well as being a disgrace).
The best you can say is that he's weaker than Truss, who did at least try and put Braverman back in her box over visa numbers. The worst possibility is that he actively wants this stuff.
The problem isn't that we need workers - we need intelligent skilled workers. And given the choice of going to the UK or somewhere else (say America or somewhere in Europe) there is little incentive for the really intelligent immigrants to come here (except possibly IT in London and even then that the second choice compared to the US.
Calais and illegal immigrants are a completely separate issue - attached to the point that few countries anywhere want uneducated young men - they don't exactly add value to the workforce.
Who says they're uneducated? If their family have the resources to pay people smugglers they probably also had the resources to pay for their education. And right now we have record low unemployment and labour shortages across the economy, not just for brain surgeons and rocket scientists. I was listening to Cleverly on the radio this morning extolling the benefits of controlled immigration. But there was no information on how that control would be exercised - how sectors with labour shortages would be identified and prioritised, how flexible and nimble that could be, what criteria would be applied, how political meddling could be avoided etc. It always seems odd to me that people who otherwise want the government out of their lives think that this is the one area where government interference is far superior to the private sector in terms of allocating resources. I see no evidence of the government being effective in this area, but plenty of evidence of labour shortages that are thwarting economic growth and creating inflation.
For too many Tory MPs and their voters, controlled migration = no migration.
The problem is that for genuine skills, there is a worldwide shortage. So unlimited immigration for doctors would merely mean that the NHS might or might not have enough staff. There is no chance that competition would reduce doctors to minimum wage.
For low and moderate skilled workers etc there isn’t a world wide shortage.
This means that for me, unlimited immigration is awesome. The wages and costs of all the service industries I use fall. My wages are fine. Plus I get to bang on about how egalitarian I am, while ordering a Deliveroo from a place 60 yards down the road, because it is raining. If I start thinking about why it costs £2 for a bloke to go out in the rain to get my food, though.
If you are pro immigration (and I am), then it has to be long term sustainable. If you want 300,000 extra people in the country each year, you need to -
- build 300,000 bedrooms for them to sleep in. Fuck the Green belt, unless you are a racist. - build the matching number of hospitals, schools etc. - When, as a result of the A level fuckup due to COVID, some university classes increased 25% in size, no one seems to have thought of the implications. Either those people are unfit to be at university, or the education system has failed millions of people who should have been doctors, lawyers etc.
Simply using mass immigration rather than productivity increases to reduce costs, on anything goes basis, is a plan for failure.
Edit : And if, when you ask the question about the ultimate target population for the country is, the response is the usual “that question is racist” drivel… well those people can fuck off as well.
I think Anneliese Dodd's has clearly forgotten about Liz Truss, and the previous 2 female Tory PMs, already. Selectively forgetting the fact that Labour have never had anyone as a leader other than white, middle-aged men.
Just one in five of the ministers around Rishi Sunak’s Cabinet table are women.
I know the Conservatives struggle to add up, but women make up half the population.
The number of talented, competent female Tory MPs must be shockingly low considering the blokes who have been appointed to the Cabinet. Only seven women on the Conservative benches are seen by their leader as being on the same level as Gavin Williamson. That is extraordinary!
Yes. The markets are pretty confident, but they still have to come up with something that will meet market expectations.
I think the biggest risk is whether they can actually implement their plan. Anything that raises a significant amount of revenue, or saves a significant sum of spending, will be unpopular. Will Sunak have the authority to get them through?
I was referring to the latest election result (SNP 64, Con 31, Lab 22, Grn 8, LD 4), not to the next one.
If forced to predict, I’d say that the Scottish Tories will just about manage to achieve 3rd place, on a shocking reduction in vote share, but it’ll be close. The Scottish Lib Dems are going to thoroughly hoover up the Unionist vote in the North East, Borders and perhaps even wealthier suburbs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Unfortunately, from their point of view, the new boundaries are going to totally screw their chances of seat gains, but there’ll be a lot of shock SLD 2nd places.
The Yougov polling gives Sunak a 26% favourable rating in Scotland, actually higher than the 25% the SCons got in 2019
"71% of housewives in East Lancashire and 81% in Hertfordshire expressed an interest in the concept of exotic ice-creams. Only 8% in Hertfordshire and 14% in Lancashire expressed positive hostility, whilst 5% expressed latent hostility. In Hertfordshire, 96% of the 50% who formed 20% of consumer spending were in favour. 0.6% told us where we could put our exotic ice creams."
Brilliant - almost reminds me of David Foster Wallace if you ignore the last line.
Little noted yesterday. Sunak has put a close friend in politics - Robert Jenrick - in the immigration brief below Braverman. One PM ally says it’s “to keep Suella in check”.
Yes. The markets are pretty confident, but they still have to come up with something that will meet market expectations.
I think the biggest risk is whether they can actually implement their plan. Anything that raises a significant amount of revenue, or saves a significant sum of spending, will be unpopular. Will Sunak have the authority to get them through?
Being the only option short of electoral oblivion for the Tories means he can play hardball on tax rises, benefits uprating with wages etc.
I think Anneliese Dodd's has clearly forgotten about Liz Truss, and the previous 2 female Tory PMs, already. Selectively forgetting the fact that Labour have never had anyone as a leader other than white, middle-aged men.
Just one in five of the ministers around Rishi Sunak’s Cabinet table are women.
I know the Conservatives struggle to add up, but women make up half the population.
The number of talented, competent female Tory MPs must be shockingly low considering the blokes who have been appointed to the Cabinet. Only seven women on the Conservative benches are seen by their leader as being on the same level as Gavin Williamson. That is extraordinary!
I expect the Tories to see an uptick in their opinion poll ratings in the coming weeks. The challenge, I think, is whether to interpret this as a "thank God Truss is gone" uptick, or whether it's a "thank God Sunak's PM" uptick. In the short term, I suspect it's more of the former.
"He owns two £2m homes in London, one of which is a £2.5m townhouse less than a mile from the Houses of Parliament. He also owns Eye Manor, a Grade I listed building in Herefordshire which he purchased for £1.1 million in 2009. His constituency of Newark is 150 miles (240 km) from his 'family home' in Herefordshire. He rents a £2,000-a-month property in his Newark constituency,[26] which is paid for by the MPs' second homes allowance."
I think Anneliese Dodd's has clearly forgotten about Liz Truss, and the previous 2 female Tory PMs, already. Selectively forgetting the fact that Labour have never had anyone as a leader other than white, middle-aged men.
Just one in five of the ministers around Rishi Sunak’s Cabinet table are women.
I know the Conservatives struggle to add up, but women make up half the population.
It’s a shame that there are no recent examples in the UK of women in positions of power being utterly shit which might demonstrate that it’s not what’s between your legs that matters but what’s between the ears.
I don't particularly want to see Suella Braverman in the Home office, but if it's the price of getting the party to work together and having a functioning government, then I can see the sense of it from Sunak's point of view.
How does "Suella Braverman in the Home Office" go with "having a functioning government"?
Because without her endorsement, presumably we’d be back to looking at a Johnson return
It is also true that almost every Home Secretary is fecking dislikable.
And that is before they get to the Home Office.
Its culture seems to amplify any authoritarian and repressive instincts in the minister, so they become monstrous.
Michael Howard, John Reid, David Blunkett, Charles Clarke, Theresa May, Priti Patel, Suella Braverman ... it is not a pretty list. Thugs and fools and tyrants all.
You missed out Jacqui Smith.
I'll raise you the hideous Jim Callaghan (whatever you bat back, I have Reggie Maudling in my hand- so I win!)
American house prices are forecast to have a significant fall next year. Hopefully the same, but to an even greater extent, happens in this country too.
And don't bother responding bemoaning "negative equity". Negative equity is something every investor is supposed to potentially face in a rational market as prices go up or down in response to market conditions not ratchet only ever one way, and housing should primarily be somewhere to live not "equity" anyway.
Controversial point I am sure but 3 of the 4 so-called great offices of state are held by ethnic minorites and 3 out of 4 were under the Government Truss formed a few weeks ago.
What would the reaction in places like the Mail if that had been a Labour Government?
The Mail fight dirty, so I'm sure they'd use any and all means to undermine a government they opposed.
However, it is still progress to see racism as a political tactic subordinate to ideology, rather than the other way round. It would be more disturbing if they suddenly switched to supporting Labour because of the respective skin colours of the leaders of the two parties.
I don't particularly want to see Suella Braverman in the Home office, but if it's the price of getting the party to work together and having a functioning government, then I can see the sense of it from Sunak's point of view.
How does "Suella Braverman in the Home Office" go with "having a functioning government"?
Because without her endorsement, presumably we’d be back to looking at a Johnson return
Again: 1. Sunak promises her return 2. Sunak is appointed PM 3. Sunak is very sorry but having been fully briefed he is unable to appoint her after all
Smart, ruthless politics.
No. Unacceptable politics. Sunak's USP was that he was different. He wasn't part of the Johnson clique. If it's seriously being suggested that he made a deal to keep Braverman onside then this is a big story. Sleaze on day one doesn't look good
Peak Sunak will be around Christmas. It will be single figures. If it is close he needs to go for his own 20-30 seat mandate, before the ordure really meets the air conditioning.
Foreign Secretary was an absolute car crash on Braverman. @Skynewsniall is right: people will find the notion that this wasn't grubby tit-for-tat an insult to their intelligence. Braverman's record of gaffes belies the idea she's an intellectual giant, indispensable to any gov't. https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1585178779420602376/video/1
Yes, why were some of the more credulous PB Tories brushing it off last night? As soon as she was appointed it was blindly obvious that Sunak had made a stupid unforced error.
Suella Braverman did not mistakenly leak a meaningless document. She endlessly consulted a maverick. She deliberately emailed a policy doc not yet agreed to her pvt email. Then she sent it to John Hayes and someone she thought was his wife. Then lied to PM about when it was sent https://mobile.twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1584939423703396352
Yes, I was speaking to a civil servant friend of mine who was really surprised about her resignation letter because that sort of thing (using personal emails for work stuff) happens all the time (even though it technically shouldn't). This bigger story - consulting some outside entity on unpublished government policy and copying in his wife - is significantly worse than that.
"Concerns had been raised prior to Wednesday that Braverman had been sharing restricted government documents with people she shouldn't have..."
I've very reluctantly come to the conclusion that it was either Braverman as HS or risking Johnson back as PM.
Those were probably the political choices.
I think Sunak probably expects Braverman to self-immolate at some point whereupon she will be replaced.
Frankly, I'd like Gove in slot as I think he'd sort the boats, and the department, inside 6 months.
I wonder when you were laying into Truss, whether you thought you'd be making lame excuses for Sunak a day into his premiership. Oh well.
You seem to see me as some sort of "traitor" to Adam Smith/Hayek who's sold-out to a high-tax high-spending globalist consensus.
Nah. I am a right-wing Conservative who recognised Truss and her tin-ear as an absolute disaster for our party.
She tried to launch a 1988 budget in the conditions of 1979, and as if deficits didn't matter. She was dogmatic and naïve. She was obstinate. She was foolish. And she seems unrepentant too. That doesn't make me some sort of wet you need to dry out. It makes me realistic - she's probably shat the bed for low tax for 20 yrs now.
She was nothing like Thatcher who was a consummate politician and both Thatcher, and Nigel Lawson, would agree with that.
If Truss has 'shat the bed for low tax for 20 yrs' then I'm actually glad. I just cannot see a sane way where 'low tax' is a practical and sustainable way forward for the UK. Austerity is fine; but you can only apply it so far before the system breaks. Growth cannot be commanded; only encouraged.
I see taxes as needing to rise a little. But I want any increased taxes to be spent *very* carefully. Yes, I know...
I think you can lower taxes once the deficit is under control, and a higher growth rate has been achieved.
This is the "sharing the proceeds of growth" approach that Cameron outlined in 2010.
I think working people are overtaxed, NI is too high and a tax on jobs, income tax thresholds need to start rising with earnings again, the 40p rate kicks-in too low, and the 100-120k tax trap zone is a mess causing all sorts of knock-on implications.
I would like to see all of that addressed.
"I think working people are overtaxed"
Yes and no, IMO. Workers on low pay are certainly overtaxed; workers with high pay are probably not paying enough tax. That's the problem with the word 'workers': it covers the guy who I bought a can of Red Bull from at Asda at five this morning, and the chap earning high six figures.
But in general, I think the total tax take in the country needs to increase. Who pays more, and how that money is spent, is where the issues become really difficult.
I don't particularly want to see Suella Braverman in the Home office, but if it's the price of getting the party to work together and having a functioning government, then I can see the sense of it from Sunak's point of view.
How does "Suella Braverman in the Home Office" go with "having a functioning government"?
Because without her endorsement, presumably we’d be back to looking at a Johnson return
It is also true that almost every Home Secretary is fecking dislikable.
And that is before they get to the Home Office.
Its culture seems to amplify any authoritarian and repressive instincts in the minister, so they become monstrous.
Michael Howard, John Reid, David Blunkett, Charles Clarke, Theresa May, Priti Patel, Suella Braverman ... it is not a pretty list. Thugs and fools and tyrants all.
You missed out Jacqui Smith.
I'll raise you the hideous Jim Callaghan (whatever you bat back, I have Reggie Maudling in my hand- so I win!)
David Waddington Henry Brooke David Maxwell-Fyfe William Joynson-Hicks Winston Churchill
Foreign Secretary was an absolute car crash on Braverman. @Skynewsniall is right: people will find the notion that this wasn't grubby tit-for-tat an insult to their intelligence. Braverman's record of gaffes belies the idea she's an intellectual giant, indispensable to any gov't. https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1585178779420602376/video/1
Yes, why were some of the more credulous PB Tories brushing it off last night? As soon as she was appointed it was blindly obvious that Sunak had made a stupid unforced error.
Comments
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1585177880744448000
Being out of her depth (or at least appearing to be) is not great. But to be honest I could level that accusation at almost every Home Sec of recent decades. And there have been a lot. What is it about this POC Tory Home Sec in particular that so upsets Twitter?
Truss assisted matters by finally killing off the Thatcherite myths. But the U.S. culture wars import is just as dangerous. The far right must be confronted and comprehensively defeated. I just don’t think Sunak is the right man for that job.
I know it's rather missing the point but I also find it quite amusing that 'exotic ice-creams' have become a major 'thing' many years after poor old Reggie Perrin disappeared for good.
I'd certainly be interested to see what he came up with as Home Secretary, but there'd be a degree of trepidation.
Little noted yesterday. Sunak has put a close friend in politics - Robert Jenrick - in the immigration brief below Braverman. One PM ally says it’s “to keep Suella in check”.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1585176939785879552?l
The adults have finally entered the room they exited in 2016.
Now, to N Ireland: has he picked up the phone to the First Minister-designate of N Ireland, Michelle O'Neill, yet? That’s the real test of Sunak’s statesmanship.
How the political and media class comes back from this, I don't know - but the next generation of politicians are going to require a great deal more transparency and simplicity to win back my trust, at least.
Nah. I am a right-wing Conservative who recognised Truss and her tin-ear as an absolute disaster for our party.
She tried to launch a 1988 budget in the conditions of 1979, and as if deficits didn't matter. She was dogmatic and naïve. She was obstinate. She was foolish. And she seems unrepentant too. That doesn't make me some sort of wet you need to dry out. It makes me realistic - she's probably shat the bed for low tax for 20 yrs now.
She was nothing like Thatcher who was a consummate politician and both Thatcher, and Nigel Lawson, would agree with that.
That was a true cult classic. What on earth is it with “Only Fools and Horses”?? It was pretty shite at the time, only marginally improving during the later series, but it is getting hyped beyond belief. I’ve never re-watched it after the original broadcasts. Some theatre even has a bloody musical(?!) on it down at Haymarket. WTF.
Did you see him ramping that recent MRP map showing Scotland all red? As if it was a representation of voting intention. He is utterly shameless.
If it is, then Sunak is in a much weaker position than I thought.
I see taxes as needing to rise a little. But I want any increased taxes to be spent *very* carefully. Yes, I know...
..surprised it's not right up your street really. ;-)
However I wonder whether Sunak has it in him to adopt such a strategy, which is politically quite cynical and doesn't sit well with his pledge to return to more honest politics - and also sits unhappily with his cabinet appointments which don't exactly scream new broom.
Nevertheless if he could pull off a pitch along the lines of "my economic competence will sort out Truss's toxic economic inheritance" and "my honesty and integrity will sort out Johnson's toxic political inheritance", it is his best chance of getting more of the public on his side.
"The clever man is here and he's turning up the intelligence" at a party conference speech.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1585183366194036737
It's a mistake to view this as something Sunak was forced into. If it wasn't Braverman it would have been Patel, or someone else who would try to make them both look like pinko liberals.
I don't, therefore, see this as particularly significant. Everything hinges on the fiscal statement on All Hallows Eve. That needs to pass three tests.
1. Not spook the markets.
2. Survive contact with the Tory backbenches.
3. Avoid providing any political gifts for Labour.
Ideally it would also improve the long-term state of the economy and avoid wrecking public services, but the more minimal list of tests was too much for Truss and Kwarteng, and if Sunak/Hunt can manage it then they've a fair chance of making it to Christmas.
No politicians home should feature in the media, not least for their own security
Sadly those arriving on the Kent beaches don't look to be an obvious fit for these roles.
That would have been political nous.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1585183820927864833
Which one is he in opposition to exactly?
It smacks of the unpleasant "hostile environment" policy.
And that is before they get to the Home Office.
Its culture seems to amplify any authoritarian and repressive instincts in the minister, so they become monstrous.
Michael Howard, John Reid, David Blunkett, Charles Clarke, Theresa May, Priti Patel, Suella Braverman ... it is not a pretty list. Thugs and fools and tyrants all.
The two obvious carrots for Johnson are a promise of being dropped into a safe seat and a promise of some sort of sinecure role, most obviously to do with Ukraine. Or, I suppose, some sort of promise to get him off (or steer toward a lesser penalty) at the Privileges Committee? We'll know in due course whether any of these comes to pass.
But my guess is that Johnson was 'persuaded' to stand down essentially with threats, as I predicted back on Friday before the weekend's campaigning. There is a whole stack of possible levers they could have pulled, and probably others of which we are unaware, and if he was made an offer he could not refuse, we will probably never know what it was.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1584939423703396352
Gove would be infinitely better than Braverman I completely agree. What a shame
What would the reaction in places like the Mail if that had been a Labour Government?
Ken Clarke only exception I can think of in my lifetime, but even that was before I was old enough to follow politics and even then he was only there a few months before he moved on.
The last decent Home Secretary seems to have been Roy Jenkins - and that was before many of us on this site were even born.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Jenrick#
- Is there really such a thing as Lutheran work ethic? I'm unconvinced.
- Reserved? Sounds more like Brits than Germans, I would say.
- Don't say what they are really thinking? Ditto. Most Germans are rarely shy about letting you know what they think.
- Melancholia? Again, can't see this as something that is more German than British.
- Mosquitoes in the north? Just like Britain.
Can't really comment on emotional intelligence. Dependability is a valued quality in Germany, so that is maybe one similarity.
This is the "sharing the proceeds of growth" approach that Cameron outlined in 2010.
I think working people are overtaxed, NI is too high and a tax on jobs, income tax thresholds need to start rising with earnings again, the 40p rate kicks-in too low, and the 100-120k tax trap zone is a mess causing all sorts of knock-on implications.
I would like to see all of that addressed.
Was some flap up here from Tories very angry about a protest organised outside Banff and Buchan Conservatives office on Thursday lunchtime. Inference was that it would threaten staff inside.
Except that B&B Tory office is literally next door to the police station. So its hardly going to kick off, or even block the Tory staff in as doing so would block the police access to the station...
Could Rishi get SB to resign again by requiring her to return Paddington Bear from Rwanda if she wishes to remain HS?
There are lots of moderate voters who back Rishi as a decent man, one of the few who could see their way through the economic crisis and supportive of Hunt and co but are repelled by UKIP/BNP migrant/refugee policies.
Just one in five of the ministers around Rishi Sunak’s Cabinet table are women.
I know the Conservatives struggle to add up, but women make up half the population.
This isn’t a fresh start, it’s just jobs for the boys.
https://twitter.com/AnnelieseDodds/status/1585023661928370176
1. Sunak promises her return
2. Sunak is appointed PM
3. Sunak is very sorry but having been fully briefed he is unable to appoint her after all
Smart, ruthless politics.
📈26pt LABOUR LEAD
🌹Lab 51 (-1)
🌳Con 25 (+3)
🔶LD 8 (-3)
🎗️SNP 4 (=)
🌍Gre 2 (=)
⬜️Other 10 (+2)
1,996 UK adults, 21-23 Oct
(chg from 14-16 Oct) https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1585186378601488384/photo/1
Don't say it again: you'll upset me ;-)
There are other Tories who might be equally hardline on immigration who could have been put into her job . So it’s clear that they did a deal and Sunak was too weak and caved in .
For low and moderate skilled workers etc there isn’t a world wide shortage.
This means that for me, unlimited immigration is awesome. The wages and costs of all the service industries I use fall. My wages are fine. Plus I get to bang on about how egalitarian I am, while ordering a Deliveroo from a place 60 yards down the road, because it is raining. If I start thinking about why it costs £2 for a bloke to go out in the rain to get my food, though.
If you are pro immigration (and I am), then it has to be long term sustainable. If you want 300,000 extra people in the country each year, you need to -
- build 300,000 bedrooms for them to sleep in. Fuck the Green belt, unless you are a racist.
- build the matching number of hospitals, schools etc.
- When, as a result of the A level fuckup due to COVID, some university classes increased 25% in size, no one seems to have thought of the implications. Either those people are unfit to be at university, or the education system has failed millions of people who should have been doctors, lawyers etc.
Simply using mass immigration rather than productivity increases to reduce costs, on anything goes basis, is a plan for failure.
Edit : And if, when you ask the question about the ultimate target population for the country is, the response is the usual “that question is racist” drivel… well those people can fuck off as well.
I think the biggest risk is whether they can actually implement their plan. Anything that raises a significant amount of revenue, or saves a significant sum of spending, will be unpopular. Will Sunak have the authority to get them through?
"He owns two £2m homes in London, one of which is a £2.5m townhouse less than a mile from the Houses of Parliament. He also owns Eye Manor, a Grade I listed building in Herefordshire which he purchased for £1.1 million in 2009. His constituency of Newark is 150 miles (240 km) from his 'family home' in Herefordshire. He rents a £2,000-a-month property in his Newark constituency,[26] which is paid for by the MPs' second homes allowance."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Jenrick#
American house prices are forecast to have a significant fall next year. Hopefully the same, but to an even greater extent, happens in this country too.
And don't bother responding bemoaning "negative equity". Negative equity is something every investor is supposed to potentially face in a rational market as prices go up or down in response to market conditions not ratchet only ever one way, and housing should primarily be somewhere to live not "equity" anyway.
However, it is still progress to see racism as a political tactic subordinate to ideology, rather than the other way round. It would be more disturbing if they suddenly switched to supporting Labour because of the respective skin colours of the leaders of the two parties.
Yes and no, IMO. Workers on low pay are certainly overtaxed; workers with high pay are probably not paying enough tax. That's the problem with the word 'workers': it covers the guy who I bought a can of Red Bull from at Asda at five this morning, and the chap earning high six figures.
But in general, I think the total tax take in the country needs to increase. Who pays more, and how that money is spent, is where the issues become really difficult.
Henry Brooke
David Maxwell-Fyfe
William Joynson-Hicks
Winston Churchill
And for balance:
Herbert Morrison.
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.breaking-sauber-to-become-audi-works-f1-team-from-2026.6EMJQ2LlvshgpCXdCR9xJl.html
Good morning, everyone.