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Toxic Tories – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 3 in General
Toxic Tories – politicalbetting.com

Rishi Sunak still trails Keir Starmer and Labour by a long way in favourability ratings, but he is far ahead of his own partyKeir Starmer +3 net favourability ratingLabour +2Rishi Sunak -9Conservatives -47https://t.co/6tZu8mReKp pic.twitter.com/4yKn6OF24P

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Comments

  • Ben Stokes retired from the wrong format.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    Turd polishing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    A lot riding on Dawid Malan here. If he doesn't bat through I would expect Ireland to win pretty comfortably.

    They may well win anyway given how effectively they're strangling England.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    edited October 26
    5th like the Scottish Liberal Democrats.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    5th like the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

    So you're optimistic about Scottish Tory chances?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,930
    My question got last threaded… what is wrong with Suella Braverman? I know almost nothing about her. Why all the hate?
  • moonshine said:

    My question got last threaded… what is wrong with Suella Braverman? I know almost nothing about her. Why all the hate?

    I'll be explaining in the afternoon thread.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    ydoethur said:

    If he wants to continue polling better than his party, he doesn't want to make any more stupid mistakes like Braverman to the Home Office.

    The Braverman appointment doesn't seem any more justified after the contradictory spinning overnight.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278
    I suspect this may be close to a high point for him. Let's see where we are in 2 weeks.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Well done Mr Sunak! Spoke to both Sturgeon and Drakeford on Day One. The contrast with the preposterous Truss - who never once spoke to either of them during her entire premiership - is stark.

    https://twitter.com/gowdavy/status/1583496116389019651?s=46&t=SFgT5jwmpN9ktcLpAdYpPQ
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    If he wants to continue polling better than his party, he doesn't want to make any more stupid mistakes like Braverman to the Home Office.

    The Braverman appointment doesn't seem any more justified after the contradictory spinning overnight.
    You can't justify the unjustifiable.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,045
    moonshine said:

    My question got last threaded… what is wrong with Suella Braverman? I know almost nothing about her. Why all the hate?

    She wants the immigration laws to be enforced.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    The Democratic progressive caucus have made a significant blunder. Inexplicable why Jaypal thought it a good idea to release this letter so close to the midterms - and months after it was drafted and signed.

    House progressives retract Russia-diplomacy letter amid Dem firestorm
    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/25/house-progressives-russia-diplomacy-00063338

    And she went on to blame staffers for what was quite evidently her blunder.

    Completely unnecessary.
    Witness this just released statement from one of the signatories, which even the most uncompromising supporter of Ukraine would agree with, in its entirety.

    https://raskin.house.gov/press-releases?ID=C6AAEAAD-548C-444A-85AB-A77AB7FFAAE6
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    Andy_JS said:

    moonshine said:

    My question got last threaded… what is wrong with Suella Braverman? I know almost nothing about her. Why all the hate?

    She wants the immigration laws to be enforced.
    She professes her dreams of renditioning asylum seekers to Rwanda, too.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    An unforced error and a sign of weakness. As others have said, Sunak may have felt he needed to “reward” Braverman for her support. But jobs of the gravity of Home Secretary are not baubles. They have consequences. He should have sent her flowers and appointed someone less awful.

    https://twitter.com/alexvtunzelmann/status/1585164974594625543
    https://twitter.com/bethrigby/status/1585160877640417280
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,527
    In the Truss Premiership I was bemoaning why in the first leadership election the Sunak supporters were idealistic rather than pragmatic. The result of them not lending Penny Mordaunt a few votes was that Truss got through to the members with the inevitable result.

    They now have their man in place in Number 10 but more through luck than judgement. It has also put the country through a large amount of unnecessary pain to get there.

    I'd love to know the answer to this question from the Sunak supporting MPs. What would have been better? Sunak as PM now but having had to go through the pain of Truss (and this the toxicity as referenced in the article) OR Penny Mordaunt as PM from the first leadership election.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620
    edited October 26
    Andy_JS said:

    moonshine said:

    My question got last threaded… what is wrong with Suella Braverman? I know almost nothing about her. Why all the hate?

    She wants the immigration laws to be enforced.
    Actually the problem she has with the immigration laws is that the judges wouldn't let her deport people to Rwanda. She objects to the judgements on immigration law.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    If he wants to continue polling better than his party, he doesn't want to make any more stupid mistakes like Braverman to the Home Office.

    The Braverman appointment doesn't seem any more justified after the contradictory spinning overnight.
    You can't justify the unjustifiable.
    Understood and agreed.

    But even the claims of the appointment being "necessary for party unity", or that not doing so would have jeopardised Sunak's election/appointment, don't seem to stack up.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    moonshine said:

    My question got last threaded… what is wrong with Suella Braverman? I know almost nothing about her. Why all the hate?

    She wants the immigration laws to be enforced.
    Actually the problem she has with the immigration laws is that the judges wouldn't let her deport people to Rwanda. She objects to the judgements on immigration law.
    Remember under Bluekip laws are now determined by what politicians want and say, not how courts interpret legislation the politicians created.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    ydoethur said:

    5th like the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

    So you're optimistic about Scottish Tory chances?
    I was referring to the latest election result (SNP 64, Con 31, Lab 22, Grn 8, LD 4), not to the next one.

    If forced to predict, I’d say that the Scottish Tories will just about manage to achieve 3rd place, on a shocking reduction in vote share, but it’ll be close. The Scottish Lib Dems are going to thoroughly hoover up the Unionist vote in the North East, Borders and perhaps even wealthier suburbs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Unfortunately, from their point of view, the new boundaries are going to totally screw their chances of seat gains, but there’ll be a lot of shock SLD 2nd places.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461

    moonshine said:

    My question got last threaded… what is wrong with Suella Braverman? I know almost nothing about her. Why all the hate?

    I'll be explaining in the afternoon thread.
    There wont be enough space....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    If he wants to continue polling better than his party, he doesn't want to make any more stupid mistakes like Braverman to the Home Office.

    The Braverman appointment doesn't seem any more justified after the contradictory spinning overnight.
    It was useful. it tells us a lot about Sunak that we didn't know. None of it good.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    Wondering what else Sunak promised to get the top job.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644
    My five pounds on Ireland at the start of the England innings was too tame. Easy money here. England always seem to struggle against Scotland and Ireland at World Cups.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620
    Jonathan said:

    Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.

    One thing the appointment says to me is that Sunak is not really the nice guy that he has polished his public persona to be. He has a more cultured and personable veneer than Truss, but I don't think his underlying instincts and motivations are very different.
  • moonshine said:

    My question got last threaded… what is wrong with Suella Braverman? I know almost nothing about her. Why all the hate?

    1. Appears psychotic
    2. Rwanda policy
    3. Speaks in slogans - the tofu-eating wokeraty" response from the dispatch box a great example
    4. Makes petty bigots who want the forrin to go home think they have a decent viewpoint instead of being condemned for the pointless bigots they are.
    5. Doesn't understand that the petty bigots also want her to go home. Witness the callers to LBC and commentors on Guido
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644
    moonshine said:

    My question got last threaded… what is wrong with Suella Braverman? I know almost nothing about her. Why all the hate?

    She's a tory - that'll be enough for some.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    Sunak has managed to make the start of his premiership all about someone else

    And not in a good way...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    edited October 26
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.

    One thing the appointment says to me is that Sunak is not really the nice guy that he has polished his public persona to be. He has a more cultured and personable veneer than Truss, but I don't think his underlying instincts and motivations are very different.
    Yes. That’s pretty clear. Nevertheless people seem unable to resist falling for the charming veneer that comes with an expensive education.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.

    One thing the appointment says to me is that Sunak is not really the nice guy that he has polished his public persona to be. He has a more cultured and personable veneer than Truss, but I don't think his underlying instincts and motivations are very different.
    Yes. That’s pretty clear. Nevertheless people seem unable to resist falling for the charming veneer bought that comes with an expensive education.
    Is that necessarily a bad thing? At some stage a PM needs some steel. Shit could get real with Russia, and a PM with a nastier side might be an advantage.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,395

    moonshine said:

    My question got last threaded… what is wrong with Suella Braverman? I know almost nothing about her. Why all the hate?

    1. Appears psychotic
    2. Rwanda policy
    3. Speaks in slogans - the tofu-eating wokeraty" response from the dispatch box a great example
    4. Makes petty bigots who want the forrin to go home think they have a decent viewpoint instead of being condemned for the pointless bigots they are.
    5. Doesn't understand that the petty bigots also want her to go home. Witness the callers to LBC and commentors on Guido
    For me, the big issue with Braverman - apart from her clear delight in treating vulnerable people with extreme cruelty - is that she routinely put politics above the rule of law as Attorney General. When legal officers do that, democracy is in serious trouble.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,474
    moonshine said:

    My question got last threaded… what is wrong with Suella Braverman? I know almost nothing about her. Why all the hate?

    Conflates non-carnist dietary preferences with intellectual and moral deficiences so fuck her in her ragged hole.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620
    Fpt:

    Nigelb said:

    Russians are "the last truly alive people of the white race"…

    Sounding more and more like the Nazis.

    https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1585011937448169473
    one state TV panelist ruins the host's pompous announcement that Russia's war against Ukraine is becoming "the people's war" when he foams at the mouth about circulating proposals to draft "bums and deadbeats." There's some obligatory racism and much more.

    Yuck. But the revulsion about the invasion is leading Western media to seize on any nutty Russian commentator as typical of Russia in general, except for a few dissidents. It's possible to find a repulsive view expressed in British media too, without it being a significant indicator of what Britain is like.
    This was said by one of the major commentators on Russias leading nightly programme, so does have a degree of government endorsement, as nothing happens there that the Kremlin doesn't approve of.

    Then there is this bizarre intervention:

    https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1584930049480085505?t=7f41mDzDdcE3DzCgxVD-Lw&s=19

    Russias security Council speaking of the "desatanisation" of Ukraine is just bizarre.

    Russian fascism is as repellent or more as any other fascism, and encouraged from the centre.

    This isn't just a mouthy shock-jock on a talk show. They really believe this stuff.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    Jonathan said:

    Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.

    As the Yougov polling shows, Sunak already polls better than his party. However he also needs to keep the ERG and Redwall on board, hence the appointment of the tough on immigration Braverman as Home Secretary
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.

    One thing the appointment says to me is that Sunak is not really the nice guy that he has polished his public persona to be. He has a more cultured and personable veneer than Truss, but I don't think his underlying instincts and motivations are very different.
    Yes. That’s pretty clear. Nevertheless people seem unable to resist falling for the charming veneer bought that comes with an expensive education.
    Is that necessarily a bad thing? At some stage a PM needs some steel. Shit could get real with Russia, and a PM with a nastier side might be an advantage.
    He shouldn’t claim integrity.

    Perhaps if he had said “I’m a tough, two-faced slippery bastard that brought down two PMs and am now going into bat for Britain” it might at least have come across as more sincere.
  • Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.

    One thing the appointment says to me is that Sunak is not really the nice guy that he has polished his public persona to be. He has a more cultured and personable veneer than Truss, but I don't think his underlying instincts and motivations are very different.
    As CofE, he had a bit of a get-out by talking about collective responsibility - asylum and immigration wasn't his department.

    But as PM, he theoretically could stop all this. If the UK is serious about growing the economy, we need more workers. The Rwanda scheme is an overpriced scam that can't work in the agreed form (as well as being a disgrace).

    The best you can say is that he's weaker than Truss, who did at least try and put Braverman back in her box over visa numbers. The worst possibility is that he actively wants this stuff.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    edited October 26

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.

    One thing the appointment says to me is that Sunak is not really the nice guy that he has polished his public persona to be. He has a more cultured and personable veneer than Truss, but I don't think his underlying instincts and motivations are very different.
    Yes. That’s pretty clear. Nevertheless people seem unable to resist falling for the charming veneer bought that comes with an expensive education.
    Is that necessarily a bad thing? At some stage a PM needs some steel. Shit could get real with Russia, and a PM with a nastier side might be an advantage.
    Steel, perhaps. But facing down Braverman would rather better have demonstrated that.

    But principles are important too, and this appointment shows his are either to be abandoned for not very good reasons, or are simply unpalatable.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    edited October 26

    ydoethur said:

    5th like the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

    So you're optimistic about Scottish Tory chances?
    I was referring to the latest election result (SNP 64, Con 31, Lab 22, Grn 8, LD 4), not to the next one.

    If forced to predict, I’d say that the Scottish Tories will just about manage to achieve 3rd place, on a shocking reduction in vote share, but it’ll be close. The Scottish Lib Dems are going to thoroughly hoover up the Unionist vote in the North East, Borders and perhaps even wealthier suburbs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Unfortunately, from their point of view, the new boundaries are going to totally screw their chances of seat gains, but there’ll be a lot of shock SLD 2nd places.
    The Yougov polling gives Sunak a 26% favourable rating in Scotland, actually higher than the 25% the SCons got in 2019.

    Even though his 39% favourable rating UK wide is below the 43% the Tories got overall in 2019. In 1992 of course Major actually gained a seat in Scotland despite losing seats UK wide relative to Thatcher in 1987
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736

    moonshine said:

    My question got last threaded… what is wrong with Suella Braverman? I know almost nothing about her. Why all the hate?

    1. Appears psychotic
    2. Rwanda policy
    3. Speaks in slogans - the tofu-eating wokeraty" response from the dispatch box a great example
    4. Makes petty bigots who want the forrin to go home think they have a decent viewpoint instead of being condemned for the pointless bigots they are.
    5. Doesn't understand that the petty bigots also want her to go home. Witness the callers to LBC and commentors on Guido
    All the above plus:
    6. Resigned having breached the Ministerial rules.

    "The business of government relies upon people accepting responsibility for their mistakes. Pretending we haven't made mistakes, carrying on as if everyone can't see that we have made them, and hoping that things will magically come right is not serious polities."
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,151
    “A nest of singing birds”

    Hard to articulate just how far Germany's star in EU has fallen. In Bxl & EU capitals, Berlin is seen to be on wrong side of every important debate - weapons to Ukraine, more fiscal solidarity in Europe, energy market interventions etc. It's even affected bilateral Fr-Ger ties 1/

    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1585170573289586689
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,930

    moonshine said:

    My question got last threaded… what is wrong with Suella Braverman? I know almost nothing about her. Why all the hate?

    1. Appears psychotic
    2. Rwanda policy
    3. Speaks in slogans - the tofu-eating wokeraty" response from the dispatch box a great example
    4. Makes petty bigots who want the forrin to go home think they have a decent viewpoint instead of being condemned for the pointless bigots they are.
    5. Doesn't understand that the petty bigots also want her to go home. Witness the callers to LBC and commentors on Guido
    1. Didn’t seem that way on the 5min vid I just watched but I’ll take your word for it
    2. This is a pretty popular policy isn’t it?
    3. Don’t they all?
    4. Enforcing borders is one of the primary responsibilities of a government and certainly the Home Office. Good thing if she’s focused on that.
    5. She’s a non white woman in power which upsets racists? And that’s a bad thing?

    Much more interested in any slips while AG than this nonsense.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.

    One thing the appointment says to me is that Sunak is not really the nice guy that he has polished his public persona to be. He has a more cultured and personable veneer than Truss, but I don't think his underlying instincts and motivations are very different.
    Yes. That’s pretty clear. Nevertheless people seem unable to resist falling for the charming veneer bought that comes with an expensive education.
    Is that necessarily a bad thing? At some stage a PM needs some steel. Shit could get real with Russia, and a PM with a nastier side might be an advantage.
    He shouldn’t claim integrity.

    Perhaps if he had said “I’m a tough, two-faced slippery bastard that brought down two PMs and am now going into bat for Britain” it might at least have come across as more sincere.
    Would probably have been pretty popular in the Red Wall as well!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.

    One thing the appointment says to me is that Sunak is not really the nice guy that he has polished his public persona to be. He has a more cultured and personable veneer than Truss, but I don't think his underlying instincts and motivations are very different.
    As CofE, he had a bit of a get-out by talking about collective responsibility - asylum and immigration wasn't his department.

    But as PM, he theoretically could stop all this. If the UK is serious about growing the economy, we need more workers. The Rwanda scheme is an overpriced scam that can't work in the agreed form (as well as being a disgrace).

    The best you can say is that he's weaker than Truss, who did at least try and put Braverman back in her box over visa numbers. The worst possibility is that he actively wants this stuff.
    The test will be the India trade deal. If Braverman doesn't allow the loosened migration rules then how does the deal fare?

    The test of Sunak may well be not how he stands up to Putin, Xi, or Macron, but how he stands up to Modi.
  • sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 26
    On Braverman (moonshine presumably missed the reports of the Tory conference, where she received a lot of attention) I remember a discussion on Question Time quite a while ago, probably her first appearance. After some time, she just grinned and shrugged her shoulders and said something along the lines of "I'm just an ordinary person, anyone could get along with me". She seemed very superficial and out of her depth and I was surprised when she was appointed AG.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    Scott_xP said:

    Sunak has managed to make the start of his premiership all about someone else

    And not in a good way...

    ....and some of us thought that after Johnson and Truss the Nasty Party was going to show it had a genteel side. That's now been shattered.

    I'm personally disappointed because I thought he was both decent and his own man. Now I know he's not at least one of those two things. Probably both
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,452

    moonshine said:

    My question got last threaded… what is wrong with Suella Braverman? I know almost nothing about her. Why all the hate?

    1. Appears psychotic
    2. Rwanda policy
    3. Speaks in slogans - the tofu-eating wokeraty" response from the dispatch box a great example
    4. Makes petty bigots who want the forrin to go home think they have a decent viewpoint instead of being condemned for the pointless bigots they are.
    5. Doesn't understand that the petty bigots also want her to go home. Witness the callers to LBC and commentors on Guido
    All the above plus:
    6. Resigned having breached the Ministerial rules.

    "The business of government relies upon people accepting responsibility for their mistakes. Pretending we haven't made mistakes, carrying on as if everyone can't see that we have made them, and hoping that things will magically come right is not serious polities."
    6 being more significant than 1-5 combined for me.
    Shows that appointments are made on factional balance and favours rendered, not suitability.
    Continuity Johnson/Truss.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    sbjme19 said:

    On Braverman (moonshine presumably missed the reports of the Tory conference, where she received a lot of attention) I remember a discussion on Question Time quite a while ago, probably her first appearance. After some time, she just grinned and shrugged her shoulders and said something along the lines of "I'm just an ordinary person, anyone could get along with me". She seemed very superficial and out of her depth and I was surprised when she was appointed AG.

    I wasn't. Given Johnson himself is superficial and totally out of his depth and likes people of similar levels of talent.

    And with Malan goes the match, I fear.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    5th like the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

    So you're optimistic about Scottish Tory chances?
    I was referring to the latest election result (SNP 64, Con 31, Lab 22, Grn 8, LD 4), not to the next one.

    If forced to predict, I’d say that the Scottish Tories will just about manage to achieve 3rd place, on a shocking reduction in vote share, but it’ll be close. The Scottish Lib Dems are going to thoroughly hoover up the Unionist vote in the North East, Borders and perhaps even wealthier suburbs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Unfortunately, from their point of view, the new boundaries are going to totally screw their chances of seat gains, but there’ll be a lot of shock SLD 2nd places.
    The Yougov polling gives Sunak a 26% favourable rating in Scotland, actually higher than the 25% the SCons got in 2019
    "71% of housewives in East Lancashire and 81% in Hertfordshire expressed an interest in the concept of exotic ice-creams. Only 8% in Hertfordshire and 14% in Lancashire expressed positive hostility, whilst 5% expressed latent hostility. In Hertfordshire, 96% of the 50% who formed 20% of consumer spending were in favour. 0.6% told us where we could put our exotic ice creams."
    That was a brilliant repeat of Reggie Perrin the other night, as was the following Yes Minister. 2 comedies that have aged rather better than most.
  • HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.

    As the Yougov polling shows, Sunak already polls better than his party. However he also needs to keep the ERG and Redwall on board, hence the appointment of the tough on immigration Braverman as Home Secretary
    Good morning

    Braverman is a very controversial appointment which has angered opponents, but her appointment is a result of pure politics as her backing of Rishi after Johnson withdrew took the votes away from Mordaunt and to Rishi

    However, this is the first morning I can honestly say I am relieved to see the end of the Johnson Truss toxic period and the wider picture is the cabinet is drawn from across the party and it is more united than it has been for a very long time

    I would caution those predicting Rishi will have a very short honeymoon not to underestimate the change that has just happened and the effect Rishi is going to have on politics going forward and certainly labour now have a very different opponent
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.

    One thing the appointment says to me is that Sunak is not really the nice guy that he has polished his public persona to be. He has a more cultured and personable veneer than Truss, but I don't think his underlying instincts and motivations are very different.
    As CofE, he had a bit of a get-out by talking about collective responsibility - asylum and immigration wasn't his department.

    But as PM, he theoretically could stop all this. If the UK is serious about growing the economy, we need more workers. The Rwanda scheme is an overpriced scam that can't work in the agreed form (as well as being a disgrace).

    The best you can say is that he's weaker than Truss, who did at least try and put Braverman back in her box over visa numbers. The worst possibility is that he actively wants this stuff.
    The problem isn't that we need workers - we need intelligent skilled workers. And given the choice of going to the UK or somewhere else (say America or somewhere in Europe) there is little incentive for the really intelligent immigrants to come here (except possibly IT in London and even then that the second choice compared to the US.

    Calais and illegal immigrants are a completely separate issue - attached to the point that few countries anywhere want uneducated young men - they don't exactly add value to the workforce.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,927
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    My question got last threaded… what is wrong with Suella Braverman? I know almost nothing about her. Why all the hate?

    1. Appears psychotic
    2. Rwanda policy
    3. Speaks in slogans - the tofu-eating wokeraty" response from the dispatch box a great example
    4. Makes petty bigots who want the forrin to go home think they have a decent viewpoint instead of being condemned for the pointless bigots they are.
    5. Doesn't understand that the petty bigots also want her to go home. Witness the callers to LBC and commentors on Guido
    1. Didn’t seem that way on the 5min vid I just watched but I’ll take your word for it
    2. This is a pretty popular policy isn’t it?
    3. Don’t they all?
    4. Enforcing borders is one of the primary responsibilities of a government and certainly the Home Office. Good thing if she’s focused on that.
    5. She’s a non white woman in power which upsets racists? And that’s a bad thing?

    Much more interested in any slips while AG than this nonsense.

    Apparently she is also the child catcher in Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,241

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    5th like the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

    So you're optimistic about Scottish Tory chances?
    I was referring to the latest election result (SNP 64, Con 31, Lab 22, Grn 8, LD 4), not to the next one.

    If forced to predict, I’d say that the Scottish Tories will just about manage to achieve 3rd place, on a shocking reduction in vote share, but it’ll be close. The Scottish Lib Dems are going to thoroughly hoover up the Unionist vote in the North East, Borders and perhaps even wealthier suburbs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Unfortunately, from their point of view, the new boundaries are going to totally screw their chances of seat gains, but there’ll be a lot of shock SLD 2nd places.
    The Yougov polling gives Sunak a 26% favourable rating in Scotland, actually higher than the 25% the SCons got in 2019
    "71% of housewives in East Lancashire and 81% in Hertfordshire expressed an interest in the concept of exotic ice-creams. Only 8% in Hertfordshire and 14% in Lancashire expressed positive hostility, whilst 5% expressed latent hostility. In Hertfordshire, 96% of the 50% who formed 20% of consumer spending were in favour. 0.6% told us where we could put our exotic ice creams."
    Still brilliant after all these years!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600
    Braverman's implosion was arguably the event that finished Truss's premership. Makes one wonder if somehow that was a Sunak stitch up too - hence the reward.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.

    As the Yougov polling shows, Sunak already polls better than his party. However he also needs to keep the ERG and Redwall on board, hence the appointment of the tough on immigration Braverman as Home Secretary
    Good morning

    Braverman is a very controversial appointment which has angered opponents, but her appointment is a result of pure politics as her backing of Rishi after Johnson withdrew took the votes away from Mordaunt and to Rishi

    However, this is the first morning I can honestly say I am relieved to see the end of the Johnson Truss toxic period and the wider picture is the cabinet is drawn from across the party and it is more united than it has been for a very long time

    I would caution those predicting Rishi will have a very short honeymoon not to underestimate the change that has just happened and the effect Rishi is going to have on politics going forward and certainly labour now have a very different opponent
    It's a sad truth that politicians often say one thing and do the other.

    Corbyn promised us a kinder, gentler politics and promoted McDonnell, Pidcock and Jenny Formby.

    Blair promised us a new dawn and an end to sleaze. He became the first Prime Minister to be interviewed as part of a police investigation.

    Brown promised a new era without spin, only to do more spinning than Blair had ever dreamed of.

    May promised us strong and stable, and well...

    Thatcher said 'where there is discord, may we bring harmony.'

    Which means Sunak really shouldn't have promised integrity. That was always absolutely asking for trouble.
  • moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    My question got last threaded… what is wrong with Suella Braverman? I know almost nothing about her. Why all the hate?

    1. Appears psychotic
    2. Rwanda policy
    3. Speaks in slogans - the tofu-eating wokeraty" response from the dispatch box a great example
    4. Makes petty bigots who want the forrin to go home think they have a decent viewpoint instead of being condemned for the pointless bigots they are.
    5. Doesn't understand that the petty bigots also want her to go home. Witness the callers to LBC and commentors on Guido
    1. Didn’t seem that way on the 5min vid I just watched but I’ll take your word for it
    2. This is a pretty popular policy isn’t it?
    3. Don’t they all?
    4. Enforcing borders is one of the primary responsibilities of a government and certainly the Home Office. Good thing if she’s focused on that.
    5. She’s a non white woman in power which upsets racists? And that’s a bad thing?

    Much more interested in any slips while AG than this nonsense.

    How is the Rwanda policy popular? Supported by a minority - the gammony bigots I referred to who get puce with anger reading about all these migrants in the mail and whilst watching GBeebies. But outside of bigotia?

    Also, how is she enforcing borders? Saying "I am focused" does nothing. We need international co-operation, which she is against. We need Border Force staff, which she cut. We need Home Office staff, which she cut. We need a viable migrant management policy, which she opposes. We need clear laws, which she undermined and subverted as AG.

    "Just send the forrin to Rwanda" fails on the most basic level in that we aren't sending anyone to Rwanda because Rwanda says they have no room for them. Yet this psychopath - yet another HS with a mad glint in their eyes as they promote BNP policies - insists it is the only way.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,045
    Gavin Williamson is back attending cabinet as minister without portfolio.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_Kingdom
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.

    As the Yougov polling shows, Sunak already polls better than his party. However he also needs to keep the ERG and Redwall on board, hence the appointment of the tough on immigration Braverman as Home Secretary
    Good morning

    Braverman is a very controversial appointment which has angered opponents, but her appointment is a result of pure politics as her backing of Rishi after Johnson withdrew took the votes away from Mordaunt and to Rishi

    However, this is the first morning I can honestly say I am relieved to see the end of the Johnson Truss toxic period and the wider picture is the cabinet is drawn from across the party and it is more united than it has been for a very long time

    I would caution those predicting Rishi will have a very short honeymoon not to underestimate the change that has just happened and the effect Rishi is going to have on politics going forward and certainly labour now have a very different opponent
    It doesn’t look different. Same old tired faces, same old tired manifesto.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    5th like the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

    So you're optimistic about Scottish Tory chances?
    I was referring to the latest election result (SNP 64, Con 31, Lab 22, Grn 8, LD 4), not to the next one.

    If forced to predict, I’d say that the Scottish Tories will just about manage to achieve 3rd place, on a shocking reduction in vote share, but it’ll be close. The Scottish Lib Dems are going to thoroughly hoover up the Unionist vote in the North East, Borders and perhaps even wealthier suburbs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Unfortunately, from their point of view, the new boundaries are going to totally screw their chances of seat gains, but there’ll be a lot of shock SLD 2nd places.
    The Yougov polling gives Sunak a 26% favourable rating in Scotland, actually higher than the 25% the SCons got in 2019
    "71% of housewives in East Lancashire and 81% in Hertfordshire expressed an interest in the concept of exotic ice-creams. Only 8% in Hertfordshire and 14% in Lancashire expressed positive hostility, whilst 5% expressed latent hostility. In Hertfordshire, 96% of the 50% who formed 20% of consumer spending were in favour. 0.6% told us where we could put our exotic ice creams."
    That was a brilliant repeat of Reggie Perrin the other night, as was the following Yes Minister. 2 comedies that have aged rather better than most.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PirMZGL-0mQ
  • dixiedean said:

    moonshine said:

    My question got last threaded… what is wrong with Suella Braverman? I know almost nothing about her. Why all the hate?

    1. Appears psychotic
    2. Rwanda policy
    3. Speaks in slogans - the tofu-eating wokeraty" response from the dispatch box a great example
    4. Makes petty bigots who want the forrin to go home think they have a decent viewpoint instead of being condemned for the pointless bigots they are.
    5. Doesn't understand that the petty bigots also want her to go home. Witness the callers to LBC and commentors on Guido
    All the above plus:
    6. Resigned having breached the Ministerial rules.

    "The business of government relies upon people accepting responsibility for their mistakes. Pretending we haven't made mistakes, carrying on as if everyone can't see that we have made them, and hoping that things will magically come right is not serious polities."
    6 being more significant than 1-5 combined for me.
    Shows that appointments are made on factional balance and favours rendered, not suitability.
    Continuity Johnson/Truss.
    TBH I ignored her egregious errors as AG because she is no longer AG. It is why she upsets so many people as Home Secretary that I was commenting on. All the AG criticisms are very serious as well, of course.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278
    Andy_JS said:

    moonshine said:

    My question got last threaded… what is wrong with Suella Braverman? I know almost nothing about her. Why all the hate?

    She wants the immigration laws to be enforced.
    If that was the only issue on the charge sheet, that would be fair enough; it would simply be a disagreement about policy and methods.

    Her rhetoric is what polarizes. But the reason I am angry and disappointed is that she neither respects the law (c.f. her time as AG, her security issues), nor is she competent (c.f. failed immigration policy implementation)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    Braverman's implosion was arguably the event that finished Truss's premership. Makes one wonder if somehow that was a Sunak stitch up too - hence the reward.

    Never attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by stupidity.

    And actually, even if Braverman wasn't stupid, it is very easy to select the wrong email when you have multiple accounts.

    It's why, for example, I have separate sign-ins for work and home stuff and use different browsers within those accounts for anything that I want to keep apart.

    However, since anyone with a brain wouldn't be using a personal phone for such sensitive stuff she doesn't get away with that.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    5th like the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

    So you're optimistic about Scottish Tory chances?
    I was referring to the latest election result (SNP 64, Con 31, Lab 22, Grn 8, LD 4), not to the next one.

    If forced to predict, I’d say that the Scottish Tories will just about manage to achieve 3rd place, on a shocking reduction in vote share, but it’ll be close. The Scottish Lib Dems are going to thoroughly hoover up the Unionist vote in the North East, Borders and perhaps even wealthier suburbs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Unfortunately, from their point of view, the new boundaries are going to totally screw their chances of seat gains, but there’ll be a lot of shock SLD 2nd places.
    The Yougov polling gives Sunak a 26% favourable rating in Scotland, actually higher than the 25% the SCons got in 2019
    "71% of housewives in East Lancashire and 81% in Hertfordshire expressed an interest in the concept of exotic ice-creams. Only 8% in Hertfordshire and 14% in Lancashire expressed positive hostility, whilst 5% expressed latent hostility. In Hertfordshire, 96% of the 50% who formed 20% of consumer spending were in favour. 0.6% told us where we could put our exotic ice creams."
    RIP
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    WillG said:

    Eabhal said:

    EPG said:

    FF43 said:

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Pity it's clearly nonsensical, migrants aren't camping in Calais because they want to flee a rich country to get to a poor country, nor do young Spaniards and Italians flock to London because the streets of Lisbon are paved with gold.
    You didn’t read it, did you?
    Go on, tell us why Britain is much poorer than France, then.
    Well, it’s got you in it for a start.
    Apart from that, just read the piece.
    Not a lot of cold, hard facts there. The rise of hand car washes is surely more to do with unchecked immigration from Eastern Europe than a failure to automate car washes.
    That the UK has lower productivity than peers in Europe and is falling behind further is well documented. UK median incomes after housing were amongst the highest in Europe before the GFC, now in the lower half and falling further relatively. This is directly attributable to two Conservative government policies: Cameron/Osborne austerity and Brexit. I would say the article is spot on.



    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/13/average-uk-household-8800-a-year-worse-off-than-those-in-france-or-germany

    DIsclosure: I thought austerity was necessary back in 2010. I now realise I was mistaken
    This is effectively saying that the median UK household is worse off relative to other European countries due to higher house prices, which is surely not right, on the contrary, most households gain from higher house prices because they get housing equity that they can liquidate for spending in retirement, unlike the typical German renter who needs to invest in ultra-safe pensions.
    But this is the problem ffs! In very simple terms, everyone on high incomes AHC in the UK tends to be a no-mortgage Tory with no dependents. Huge wealth and disposable income. And nothing to do with it.

    Meanwhile, someone like me has to chuck a huge amount of our salary into a mortgage or rent. We don't then have the money left over to go for a Masters degree or Further education, lowering our productivity. Or we don't have the spare cash to move to another part of the country to match our skills with a better job.

    Some of us, like me, get a big chunk of money off our parents for the flat and/or the Masters. This entrenches generational inequality, further disincentivising people who are high-performers from even bothering to make something of themselves.

    Productivity growth dies. No one has money to have kids, so the fertility rate drops. There is reduced working-age population which gets squeezed harder and harder to serve an older generation which, due to technological advances and an increase in chronic conditions, requires a huge number of carers (further reducing the working population).

    The UK enters a death spiral and everyone sensible moves to somewhere that isn't going to get fucked by climate change.
    This is what I did. Moved somewhere else where I got paid 60% more for the same job I did in the UK.
    I'm moving to Aus in July/August.
    Great move! An old school/rugby colleague of mine moved his family to Australia a few years ago. It was a big success. My only worry is if/when air travel becomes so prohibitively expensive that Aus/NZ get “cut off”. Back to steamers?

    I have never for one moment regretted emigrating to Sweden. I absolutely love it here. Unfortunately I don’t think that I come up to @WillG ’s high standards - “moved somewhere else where I got paid 60% more for the same job I did in the UK” - but maybe 40% more, and the other benefits just blow Scotland out the water, eg:

    - ridiculously long holidays + other time off (eg parental leave and time off to care for sick children)
    - short working hours (I have almost never worked more than 35 hours a week, often considerably less, all for F/T salary)
    - ridiculously short commuting times (approximately 17 minutes at present) and plenty of working from home
    - powerful trade unions that genuinely look after my interests
    - a clean, safe, attractive environment
    - outstanding library services that are so good I almost never need to buy a book or magazine ( anything they don’t already have, they order for me)
    - world class sports facilities and coaching
    - safe cycling
    - the gorgeous nature, coast, landscapes
    - sane, pleasant politicians
    - competent public services
    - media who are not habitual liars
    - beautiful seafood
    - sensible alcohol and drug environment
    - outstanding public transport
    - great schools and universities
    - I could go on all day

    Obviously, Scotland can beat Sweden in various ways too. Few things in life are all gain and no pain. I miss my old mum and my old friends for example. And nowhere in Sweden is as gorgeous as Harris, Orkney or Ardnamurchan on a good day. The fresh smell of the Atlantic Ocean is unparalleled
    I've always enjoyed my visits to Sweden for work and pleasure, and the Swedes are a pleasure to work with - they are very smart and the media definitely seems to pitch at a much higher level of intelligence than ours does. The one thing that I have always struggled with, though, is the reserve. They seem not to say a lot of stuff they may be thinking. And the mosquitos. They are sheer hell. But the light blue of the Swedish sky in summer and the dark blue of those Swedish lakes, that is magical. I also think the Swedish flag is the most beautiful in the world.

    There is also a grim melancholia to Swedish people, with a rather austere and harsh Lutheran culture. Something that either you feel in tune with, or not. I am fine with it, but I can understand why others find "the Germans of the North" difficult.
    Yes, you’ve both hit the nail on the head there. Never heard “the Germans of the North” term before, but there is a lot of truth in it. Modern Swedes try desperately to disguise their close bonds with Germany, going back to the dawn of history and almost certainly long before, but such profound cultural similarities cannot forever be suppressed.

    Lutheranism: absolutely! Both for good and ill. They pretend they are irreligious, but you’ll never meet a bigger bunch of moralists in your life. My wife for example almost never crosses the threshold of a church, but the Lutheran work ethic is embedded in her soul like a stick of rock.

    Melancholia: yepp. Especially in the rural bits. Of course, the upside is that they despise melodrama: it makes them feel uncomfortable.

    Austere and harsh culture? No, not really. But then unless you’ve mastered the language (which is actually surprisingly easy) then I can understand why one might think that.

    A pleasure to work with? Yepp. Bloody hard working and dependable. But after 4pm Monday-Thursday and 3pm on a Friday, or anytime between late June and late August: good luck getting anyone to answer a phone or email. Ditto the “red days” and the innumerable ”klämdagar”.

    They are very smart? Yepp. And emotionally intelligent. They make your average Englishman look like an adolescent.

    The media definitely seems to pitch at a much higher level of intelligence than ours does? Oh yes. And then some.

    The reserve? Yes. This is hard for outsiders to get used to. It mostly explains why they have had such horrific problems integrating some immigrants.

    They seem not to say a lot of stuff they may be thinking? Ho ho. Indeed! Good luck guessing what a Swede is *really* thinking. They are so quiet cos they hate being rude 😄

    And the mosquitos. They are sheer hell? Only in the far north. Have you never met a Scottish cleg or midge?

    But the light blue of the Swedish sky in summer and the dark blue of those Swedish lakes, that is magical? Exquisite. Stunning beyond comprehension.

    I also think the Swedish flag is the most beautiful in the world? I love it. It is my flag, almost as much as the cherished Saltire.
  • Bloody rain.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Rain kills off England's chances.

    But truthfully, except for Moeen Ali in the last two overs the batting has been so poor they don't deserve to win.
  • eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.

    One thing the appointment says to me is that Sunak is not really the nice guy that he has polished his public persona to be. He has a more cultured and personable veneer than Truss, but I don't think his underlying instincts and motivations are very different.
    As CofE, he had a bit of a get-out by talking about collective responsibility - asylum and immigration wasn't his department.

    But as PM, he theoretically could stop all this. If the UK is serious about growing the economy, we need more workers. The Rwanda scheme is an overpriced scam that can't work in the agreed form (as well as being a disgrace).

    The best you can say is that he's weaker than Truss, who did at least try and put Braverman back in her box over visa numbers. The worst possibility is that he actively wants this stuff.
    The problem isn't that we need workers - we need intelligent skilled workers. And given the choice of going to the UK or somewhere else (say America or somewhere in Europe) there is little incentive for the really intelligent immigrants to come here (except possibly IT in London and even then that the second choice compared to the US.

    Calais and illegal immigrants are a completely separate issue - attached to the point that few countries anywhere want uneducated young men - they don't exactly add value to the workforce.
    It is an important distinction between immigration that we need and dangerous illegal channel crossings that must be stopped not least due to the risk of life to those crossings and those rescuing them
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600
    Furthermore, Boris MUST have been rewarded by Sunak for dropping out. Must have been. He wouldn't give a key role to Braverman and fail to reward Boris for dropping out. The nature of that reward, we'll see in time I suppose.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    edited October 26

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.

    As the Yougov polling shows, Sunak already polls better than his party. However he also needs to keep the ERG and Redwall on board, hence the appointment of the tough on immigration Braverman as Home Secretary
    Good morning

    Braverman is a very controversial appointment which has angered opponents, but her appointment is a result of pure politics as her backing of Rishi after Johnson withdrew took the votes away from Mordaunt and to Rishi

    However, this is the first morning I can honestly say I am relieved to see the end of the Johnson Truss toxic period and the wider picture is the cabinet is drawn from across the party and it is more united than it has been for a very long time

    I would caution those predicting Rishi will have a very short honeymoon not to underestimate the change that has just happened and the effect Rishi is going to have on politics going forward and certainly labour now have a very different opponent
    There's none so blind Big_G...

    Braverman 19 October 2022:
    "The business of government relies upon people accepting responsibility for their mistakes. Pretending we haven't made mistakes, carrying on as if everyone can't see that we have made them, and hoping that things will magically come right is not serious polities."

    Sunak 25 October 2022:
    "This government will have integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level."
    "The Rt Hon Suella Braverman KC MP @SuellaBraverman has been appointed Secretary of State for the Home Department @UKHomeOffice."

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,395
    sbjme19 said:

    On Braverman (moonshine presumably missed the reports of the Tory conference, where she received a lot of attention) I remember a discussion on Question Time quite a while ago, probably her first appearance. After some time, she just grinned and shrugged her shoulders and said something along the lines of "I'm just an ordinary person, anyone could get along with me". She seemed very superficial and out of her depth and I was surprised when she was appointed AG.

    Johnson needed someone with a law degree who would give him a legal green light to do whatever he wanted to do as PM. That's why he appointed Bravermen - and she absolutely delivered. She put politics above the rule of law and so demonstrated she has no serious commitment to deocracy. As Home Secretary she continued to do the same, most recently with the Public Order Bill, which will give her huge powers to detain people who have broken no laws.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    Bloody rain.

    They've been bad, but not quite bad enough to justify talk of the ten plagues of Egypt.
  • HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.

    As the Yougov polling shows, Sunak already polls better than his party. However he also needs to keep the ERG and Redwall on board, hence the appointment of the tough on immigration Braverman as Home Secretary
    Good morning

    Braverman is a very controversial appointment which has angered opponents, but her appointment is a result of pure politics as her backing of Rishi after Johnson withdrew took the votes away from Mordaunt and to Rishi

    However, this is the first morning I can honestly say I am relieved to see the end of the Johnson Truss toxic period and the wider picture is the cabinet is drawn from across the party and it is more united than it has been for a very long time

    I would caution those predicting Rishi will have a very short honeymoon not to underestimate the change that has just happened and the effect Rishi is going to have on politics going forward and certainly labour now have a very different opponent
    I would counter-caution you saying an end to the Toxic Truss period - there are still too many chancers in the cabinet, and we await the sackings of "ministers" like Jonathan Gulles.

    She needed to promise the Home Office to Cruella. That is very different to actually giving her the job. A true politician would have then refused it having been fully briefed on her breach of the ministerial code which led to her sacking last week.

    The clashing dynamics inside the Tory party remain. You can't suggest unity when multiple camps despise each other and all they stand for. As nobody can keep them united it seems foolhardy to claim he will do so.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Restart has to be in 12 minutes or the game is abandoned.

    I don't see it given the number of covers they have to remove.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644

    Furthermore, Boris MUST have been rewarded by Sunak for dropping out. Must have been. He wouldn't give a key role to Braverman and fail to reward Boris for dropping out. The nature of that reward, we'll see in time I suppose.

    That rather assumes Johnson dropped out through choice. I think it far more likely he had nothing like 100 backers.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,410
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.

    One thing the appointment says to me is that Sunak is not really the nice guy that he has polished his public persona to be. He has a more cultured and personable veneer than Truss, but I don't think his underlying instincts and motivations are very different.
    As CofE, he had a bit of a get-out by talking about collective responsibility - asylum and immigration wasn't his department.

    But as PM, he theoretically could stop all this. If the UK is serious about growing the economy, we need more workers. The Rwanda scheme is an overpriced scam that can't work in the agreed form (as well as being a disgrace).

    The best you can say is that he's weaker than Truss, who did at least try and put Braverman back in her box over visa numbers. The worst possibility is that he actively wants this stuff.
    The problem isn't that we need workers - we need intelligent skilled workers. And given the choice of going to the UK or somewhere else (say America or somewhere in Europe) there is little incentive for the really intelligent immigrants to come here (except possibly IT in London and even then that the second choice compared to the US.

    Calais and illegal immigrants are a completely separate issue - attached to the point that few countries anywhere want uneducated young men - they don't exactly add value to the workforce.
    Who says they're uneducated? If their family have the resources to pay people smugglers they probably also had the resources to pay for their education. And right now we have record low unemployment and labour shortages across the economy, not just for brain surgeons and rocket scientists.
    I was listening to Cleverly on the radio this morning extolling the benefits of controlled immigration. But there was no information on how that control would be exercised - how sectors with labour shortages would be identified and prioritised, how flexible and nimble that could be, what criteria would be applied, how political meddling could be avoided etc. It always seems odd to me that people who otherwise want the government out of their lives think that this is the one area where government interference is far superior to the private sector in terms of allocating resources. I see no evidence of the government being effective in this area, but plenty of evidence of labour shortages that are thwarting economic growth and creating inflation.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    I've very reluctantly come to the conclusion that it was either Braverman as HS or risking Johnson back as PM.

    Those were probably the political choices.

    I think Sunak probably expects Braverman to self-immolate at some point whereupon she will be replaced.

    Frankly, I'd like Gove in slot as I think he'd sort the boats, and the department, inside 6 months.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    ydoethur said:

    Restart has to be in 12 minutes or the game is abandoned.

    I don't see it given the number of covers they have to remove.

    England

    Duckworth b Lewis c Stern
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600

    Furthermore, Boris MUST have been rewarded by Sunak for dropping out. Must have been. He wouldn't give a key role to Braverman and fail to reward Boris for dropping out. The nature of that reward, we'll see in time I suppose.

    That rather assumes Johnson dropped out through choice. I think it far more likely he had nothing like 100 backers.
    I agree, that seemed the likeliest, but then it was confirmed that he did.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644
    ydoethur said:

    Restart has to be in 12 minutes or the game is abandoned.

    I don't see it given the number of covers they have to remove.

    Its done - another Eng loss to a celtic nation at a world cup.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    So here is a question:

    Given they have to beat at least one of Australia and New Zealand to qualify, how do England rejig the batting lineup to actually score some fricking runs?

    What about Ali up to four?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    5th like the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

    So you're optimistic about Scottish Tory chances?
    I was referring to the latest election result (SNP 64, Con 31, Lab 22, Grn 8, LD 4), not to the next one.

    If forced to predict, I’d say that the Scottish Tories will just about manage to achieve 3rd place, on a shocking reduction in vote share, but it’ll be close. The Scottish Lib Dems are going to thoroughly hoover up the Unionist vote in the North East, Borders and perhaps even wealthier suburbs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Unfortunately, from their point of view, the new boundaries are going to totally screw their chances of seat gains, but there’ll be a lot of shock SLD 2nd places.
    The Yougov polling gives Sunak a 26% favourable rating in Scotland, actually higher than the 25% the SCons got in 2019.

    Even though his 39% favourable rating UK wide is below the 43% the Tories got overall in 2019. In 1992 of course Major actually gained a seat in Scotland despite losing seats UK wide relative to Thatcher in 1987
    Scottish Conservative & Unionist voting intention in last five polls:

    16%, 15%, 12%, 15%, 15%

    (SCon result at UK GE 2019: 25.1%)

    Just cos Sunak is not as wildly unpopular as The Oaf or Truss does not mean you’re going to be getting a 26% share of the vote.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,927
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    5th like the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

    So you're optimistic about Scottish Tory chances?
    I was referring to the latest election result (SNP 64, Con 31, Lab 22, Grn 8, LD 4), not to the next one.

    If forced to predict, I’d say that the Scottish Tories will just about manage to achieve 3rd place, on a shocking reduction in vote share, but it’ll be close. The Scottish Lib Dems are going to thoroughly hoover up the Unionist vote in the North East, Borders and perhaps even wealthier suburbs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Unfortunately, from their point of view, the new boundaries are going to totally screw their chances of seat gains, but there’ll be a lot of shock SLD 2nd places.
    The Yougov polling gives Sunak a 26% favourable rating in Scotland, actually higher than the 25% the SCons got in 2019
    "71% of housewives in East Lancashire and 81% in Hertfordshire expressed an interest in the concept of exotic ice-creams. Only 8% in Hertfordshire and 14% in Lancashire expressed positive hostility, whilst 5% expressed latent hostility. In Hertfordshire, 96% of the 50% who formed 20% of consumer spending were in favour. 0.6% told us where we could put our exotic ice creams."
    That was a brilliant repeat of Reggie Perrin the other night, as was the following Yes Minister. 2 comedies that have aged rather better than most.
    I have been watching Whatever Happened to the Likely Lads recently, its just fantastic, the acting of James Bolam and Rodney Bewes is wonderful and the writing is brilliant.
  • HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sunak had the option of putting Mordaunt in the home office, but chose to reanimate sacked Braverman. To me that says a lot about Sunak’s priorities and status within the Tory party. It does not bode well.

    As the Yougov polling shows, Sunak already polls better than his party. However he also needs to keep the ERG and Redwall on board, hence the appointment of the tough on immigration Braverman as Home Secretary
    Good morning

    Braverman is a very controversial appointment which has angered opponents, but her appointment is a result of pure politics as her backing of Rishi after Johnson withdrew took the votes away from Mordaunt and to Rishi

    However, this is the first morning I can honestly say I am relieved to see the end of the Johnson Truss toxic period and the wider picture is the cabinet is drawn from across the party and it is more united than it has been for a very long time

    I would caution those predicting Rishi will have a very short honeymoon not to underestimate the change that has just happened and the effect Rishi is going to have on politics going forward and certainly labour now have a very different opponent
    There's none so blind Big_G...

    Braverman 19 October 2022:

    "The business of government relies upon people accepting responsibility for their mistakes. Pretending we haven't made mistakes, carrying on as if everyone can't see that we have made them, and hoping that things will magically come right is not serious polities."

    Sunak 25 October 2022:

    "This government will have integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level."

    "The Rt Hon Suella Braverman KC MP @SuellaBraverman has been appointed Secretary of State for the Home Department @UKHomeOffice."

    I did not want Braverman as HS but this is pure politics

    The wider issue for me is the end of Johnson Truss period and the cabinet is from across the party including new faces which combined need to put a brake on Braverman's wilder views

    I do not expect this issue to impact Rishi's popularity going forward and look forward to how he responds at PMQs today

    On that issue Sky just reporting Gove has gone into no 10 in order to prep Rishi for PMQs
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    5th like the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

    So you're optimistic about Scottish Tory chances?
    I was referring to the latest election result (SNP 64, Con 31, Lab 22, Grn 8, LD 4), not to the next one.

    If forced to predict, I’d say that the Scottish Tories will just about manage to achieve 3rd place, on a shocking reduction in vote share, but it’ll be close. The Scottish Lib Dems are going to thoroughly hoover up the Unionist vote in the North East, Borders and perhaps even wealthier suburbs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Unfortunately, from their point of view, the new boundaries are going to totally screw their chances of seat gains, but there’ll be a lot of shock SLD 2nd places.
    The Yougov polling gives Sunak a 26% favourable rating in Scotland, actually higher than the 25% the SCons got in 2019
    "71% of housewives in East Lancashire and 81% in Hertfordshire expressed an interest in the concept of exotic ice-creams. Only 8% in Hertfordshire and 14% in Lancashire expressed positive hostility, whilst 5% expressed latent hostility. In Hertfordshire, 96% of the 50% who formed 20% of consumer spending were in favour. 0.6% told us where we could put our exotic ice creams."
    That was a brilliant repeat of Reggie Perrin the other night, as was the following Yes Minister. 2 comedies that have aged rather better than most.
    I have been watching Whatever Happened to the Likely Lads recently, its just fantastic, the acting of James Bolam and Rodney Bewes is wonderful and the writing is brilliant.
    On the James Bolam front, I've been rewatching The Beiderbecke Affair etc.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    5th like the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

    So you're optimistic about Scottish Tory chances?
    I was referring to the latest election result (SNP 64, Con 31, Lab 22, Grn 8, LD 4), not to the next one.

    If forced to predict, I’d say that the Scottish Tories will just about manage to achieve 3rd place, on a shocking reduction in vote share, but it’ll be close. The Scottish Lib Dems are going to thoroughly hoover up the Unionist vote in the North East, Borders and perhaps even wealthier suburbs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Unfortunately, from their point of view, the new boundaries are going to totally screw their chances of seat gains, but there’ll be a lot of shock SLD 2nd places.
    The Yougov polling gives Sunak a 26% favourable rating in Scotland, actually higher than the 25% the SCons got in 2019
    "71% of housewives in East Lancashire and 81% in Hertfordshire expressed an interest in the concept of exotic ice-creams. Only 8% in Hertfordshire and 14% in Lancashire expressed positive hostility, whilst 5% expressed latent hostility. In Hertfordshire, 96% of the 50% who formed 20% of consumer spending were in favour. 0.6% told us where we could put our exotic ice creams."
    We ought to keep that and paste it in every time Mini Franco spouts his gobbledygook.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048

    Furthermore, Boris MUST have been rewarded by Sunak for dropping out. Must have been. He wouldn't give a key role to Braverman and fail to reward Boris for dropping out. The nature of that reward, we'll see in time I suppose.

    MUST he? Does what you write become more accurate because you write it in CAPITALS ? ;)

    We'll discover the truth (or more probably, truths) about what happened this week in a decade or so, as memoirs start to emerge. But I'm unconvinced that Boris was particularly in a position to demand a reward for dropping out - as his position was fairly untenable anyway.

    His supporters were a different matter. As we've seen, Sunak's upset JRM and Dorries, which is hardly a sign of being pro-Johnson's cronies.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600

    I've very reluctantly come to the conclusion that it was either Braverman as HS or risking Johnson back as PM.

    Those were probably the political choices.

    I think Sunak probably expects Braverman to self-immolate at some point whereupon she will be replaced.

    Frankly, I'd like Gove in slot as I think he'd sort the boats, and the department, inside 6 months.

    I wonder when you were laying into Truss, whether you thought you'd be making lame excuses for Sunak a day into his premiership. Oh well.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278

    Furthermore, Boris MUST have been rewarded by Sunak for dropping out. Must have been. He wouldn't give a key role to Braverman and fail to reward Boris for dropping out. The nature of that reward, we'll see in time I suppose.

    That rather assumes Johnson dropped out through choice. I think it far more likely he had nothing like 100 backers.
    I agree, that seemed the likeliest, but then it was confirmed that he did.
    In the interests of party unity, I might have confirmed that too, in their position.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644
    ydoethur said:

    So here is a question:

    Given they have to beat at least one of Australia and New Zealand to qualify, how do England rejig the batting lineup to actually score some fricking runs?

    What about Ali up to four?

    Controversial point about T20 - win the toss and bat first. The game is too short and won by the team batting first more often than not. See England this year (25% won when batting second).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    Was running a fever yday so everything admittedly seemed weird but still rubbing my eyes at Braverman. How to undermine your ‘return to integrity & competence’ pitch within minutes of making it.

    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1585177354090950657
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    I've very reluctantly come to the conclusion that it was either Braverman as HS or risking Johnson back as PM.

    Those were probably the political choices.

    I think Sunak probably expects Braverman to self-immolate at some point whereupon she will be replaced.

    Frankly, I'd like Gove in slot as I think he'd sort the boats, and the department, inside 6 months.

    Not often I concur wholeheartedly with a Casino post, but today’s the day. (Except the final sentence.)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    Ferrari: "Who's next, Paddington Bear?"

    James Cleverly: "Nice line Nick, but the point is I've been consistent...."

    Ferrari: "You've not been consistent. You've been pro-Boris, pro-Liz and now pro-Rishi."

    https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1585170066399977473
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,520
    I don't particularly want to see Suella Braverman in the Home office, but if it's the price of getting the party to work together and having a functioning government, then I can see the sense of it from Sunak's point of view.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600
    mwadams said:

    Furthermore, Boris MUST have been rewarded by Sunak for dropping out. Must have been. He wouldn't give a key role to Braverman and fail to reward Boris for dropping out. The nature of that reward, we'll see in time I suppose.

    That rather assumes Johnson dropped out through choice. I think it far more likely he had nothing like 100 backers.
    I agree, that seemed the likeliest, but then it was confirmed that he did.
    In the interests of party unity, I might have confirmed that too, in their position.
    I suppose that's a possibility.
  • HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    5th like the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

    So you're optimistic about Scottish Tory chances?
    I was referring to the latest election result (SNP 64, Con 31, Lab 22, Grn 8, LD 4), not to the next one.

    If forced to predict, I’d say that the Scottish Tories will just about manage to achieve 3rd place, on a shocking reduction in vote share, but it’ll be close. The Scottish Lib Dems are going to thoroughly hoover up the Unionist vote in the North East, Borders and perhaps even wealthier suburbs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Unfortunately, from their point of view, the new boundaries are going to totally screw their chances of seat gains, but there’ll be a lot of shock SLD 2nd places.
    The Yougov polling gives Sunak a 26% favourable rating in Scotland, actually higher than the 25% the SCons got in 2019.

    Even though his 39% favourable rating UK wide is below the 43% the Tories got overall in 2019. In 1992 of course Major actually gained a seat in Scotland despite losing seats UK wide relative to Thatcher in 1987
    Scottish Conservative & Unionist voting intention in last five polls:

    16%, 15%, 12%, 15%, 15%

    (SCon result at UK GE 2019: 25.1%)

    Just cos Sunak is not as wildly unpopular as The Oaf or Truss does not mean you’re going to be getting a 26% share of the vote.
    No matter the polling I thought Sturgeon's response to Rishi's appointment and his same day telephone call to her was so refreshing as was his telephone call to Drakeford
This discussion has been closed.