A housing crash does not help buyers much if it is more difficult for them to get a mortgage, as it would be
If this hypothetical buyer has saved a deposit, it becomes relatively bigger with every fall in prices, so not only do they need to borrow a smaller amount of money, but their loan-to-value ratio also gets better. It's absolutely perverse to argue that people can't benefit from paying less for something.
Indeed, we had this discussion with @Richard_Nabavi when he falsely claimed the 1990s was a bad time to be a First Time Buyer following the house price falls, when the facts and figures show the polar opposite - we had record FTBs in the early to mid 90s and its been falling ever since.
Increasing house prices aids those who are on the ladder already, to the harm of those who aren't. Falling house prices aids those who aren't, to the harm of those who are. For those who scream til they're blue in the face about the harms of negative equity - there's groups losing out no matter what, there is no "victimless" option here.
Rising house prices, as @rcs1000 has said before, allows existing home owners to leverage the increase in their equity to enable them to get a bigger home when they move. Or it allows existing home owners to leverage the increase in their equity to enable them to buy a second home without moving.
Falling house prices wipes out equity from those already on the housing ladder, but those who aren't on the ladder have no equity to lose. Instead their deposit they're saving up becomes a higher share of the deposit and means a better LTV value and also they're not competing against those buying second etc homes by leveraging the house price changes.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
2400 drones. If they send ~100/day that's 24 days. Of those, 80%+ are shot down (and that number will rise as more air defence comes online)
This sounds more like a harassing measure, unless they can significantly improve penetration, and/or significantly improve targeting.
OR they source a constant new supply. How difficult is this shit?
Too difficult for PB, it seems
It is possible that they will - but I wouldn't count on that. I imagine there are some people giving considerable thought to covert means by which that can be prevented.
I'm by no means saying that you are wrong, just that RU has surprised us on the downside where these logistical matters have been concerned, thus far.
I get the horrible feeling we are seeing a formidable new axis emerging, which perceives us as the enemy and is quite self sufficient in technology basically as good as ours
The main players are Russia, China and Iran. Plus their satellites. India is damagingly neutral
Russia’s military is quite shit but with China supplying weapons and parts via Iran (I bet that this is happening) that makes a Eurasian chain of materiel we cannot easily interdict
And that’s how Russia might win in Ukraine unless we are willing to go full nuclear confrontation over Lviv
Xi’s speech to the CCP was bristling with hostility and intent. They will move on Taiwan within a few years, for sure
If I may be bold enough to point to an alternative factor in the war, Russia is having trouble with its railways. In particular, access to roller bearings.
This could really hurt them, given their heavy reliance on railways for transport.
Now that the Tories have given us a Poundshop Churchill and a Poundshop Thatcher, I wonder what other lightweight versions of historical heavyweights we might expect?
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
2400 drones. If they send ~100/day that's 24 days. Of those, 80%+ are shot down (and that number will rise as more air defence comes online)
This sounds more like a harassing measure, unless they can significantly improve penetration, and/or significantly improve targeting.
OR they source a constant new supply. How difficult is this shit?
Too difficult for PB, it seems
It is possible that they will - but I wouldn't count on that. I imagine there are some people giving considerable thought to covert means by which that can be prevented.
I'm by no means saying that you are wrong, just that RU has surprised us on the downside where these logistical matters have been concerned, thus far.
I get the horrible feeling we are seeing a formidable new axis emerging, which perceives us as the enemy and is quite self sufficient in technology basically as good as ours
The main players are Russia, China and Iran. Plus their satellites. India is damagingly neutral
Russia’s military is quite shit but with China supplying weapons and parts via Iran (I bet that this is happening) that makes a Eurasian chain of materiel we cannot easily interdict
And that’s how Russia might win in Ukraine unless we are willing to go full nuclear confrontation over Lviv
Xi’s speech to the CCP was bristling with hostility and intent. They will move on Taiwan within a few years, for sure
Leon, can you define what you mean by 'win' when you talk about Russia 'winning' ?
Odd supermarket finding. Big gaps on the confectionery shelves. Is there a supply problem or have Sainsbury's underestimated the conjunction of halloween, Diwali and people stocking up early for Christmas?
I was commenting about gaps the other day - spices, tomato products, etc. Chocolate seems a bit uneven too with the number of types diminished. And apple varieties were down to Gala or Granny Smith.
Extraordinary poll from @InstituteGC. Strong majority think Brexit has damaged economy. Tiny number believe we should keep things as they are. More *Leave* voters support rejoin or Single Market than status quo. 70:30 majority overall for closer relationship with EU. https://twitter.com/SteveMorris123/status/1582372738152665088/photo/1
Highest government disapproval ratings by PM (Gallup/MORI): Attlee 60% Churchill 48% Eden 46% Macmillan 53% Douglas-Home 44% Wilson I 70% Heath 58% Wilson II 55% Callaghan 75% Thatcher 79% Major 86% Blair 69% Brown 78% Cameron 69% May 86% Johnson 81% https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582372944512065536?s=20&t=pLXLoTgXXpD5cbGRtAQXjg
Seattle Times ($) - Bus-riding dog who took herself to park remembered as ‘Seattle icon’
The most unusual passenger on Seattle public transit never rode the bus for long, just a few stops. She sometimes dozed during her short journeys, drooping her head onto the laps of strangers who never seemed to mind. Approaching her stop, she banged on the door in anticipation.
And other riders loved her for it.
But Seattle’s buses will no longer carry perhaps their most famous passenger. Eclipse, the black Lab-bullmastiff mix who achieved fame by riding to the park alone, died Friday. She was 10.
Eclipse started getting attention in early 2015 when she slipped aboard her usual bus while her owner, Jeff Young, was finishing a cigarette, unaware she had proceeded without him, he said. Guided only by habit, she exited at the correct stop and was very much enjoying herself at the dog park when Young, relieved from his panic, found her. After that, Eclipse became a regular commuter, taking two to three solo trips to the dog park each week, looking out the window to make sure she didn’t miss her stop.
Stardom soon followed. A local radio host noticed her get off the bus without an owner, which led to an on-air segment which, in turn, piqued the interest of Seattle TV station KOMO. National media coverage followed, and the internet did the rest.
Seattle’s public transportation system, King County Metro, quickly celebrated its newly famous pawed passenger, making a highly produced music video for the song “Bus Doggy Dog.” It closed with a tagline: “Get around like Eclipse. Plan your next trip.”
Young also leaned into his pet’s newfound fame, creating a public-figure Facebook page for “Eclipse Seattle’s Bus Riding Dog” where he shared Eclipse updates with her followers, which on Monday numbered 122,000. In 2016, Young co-wrote a children’s book titled “Dog on Board: The True Story of Eclipse, the Bus-Riding Dog.” And over the years, he and Eclipse acquired loads of swag — leashes, treats, harnesses.
“It just goes on and on and on,” Young said.
But stripped of the hoopla, their relationship at its core was that of a human and his dog — best friends, he said. Young got Eclipse when she was a 10-week-old puppy. He said they have spent all but three nights together in the nearly 11 years since.
Then on Wednesday, Young announced on Eclipse’s Facebook page that the vet had found cancerous tumors. He implored her fans to send “spare vibes” their way.
Two days later, he had bad news: Eclipse had died overnight in her sleep.
“She’s gone, and I miss her, and it really sucks,” he told The Washington Post.
King County Metro replied to Young’s announcement, offering condolences.
“Eclipse was a super sweet, world-famous, bus riding dog and true Seattle icon,” the agency wrote on Twitter. “You brought joy and happiness to everyone and showed us all that good dogs
NI will face an election before Christmas, unless power sharing is restored in the next 10 days, the government has confirmed - Chris Heaton Harris hinted at election on 8th or 15 December. Parties don't expect Stormont to be back by 28 Oct so new election next step by law https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1582381074566369280
Are we still in the DUP refusing to play ball phase? I.e. they refuse to serve if Michelle O’Neill is first minister (even though she has, erm, been elected as such)
Yes although the reason has a lot more to do with Bozo's Brexit deal which means checks on all goods coming from the UK while goods coming via Ireland are free flowing.
Bollocks -the DUP don't want Sinn Fein to have the first minister position - every thing is an excuse - if the Brexit issue was sorted they would find another reason not to cooperate.
How can they prevent it going forward? If there is a new election the UK government should be absolutely clear they will not endorse a no show. Now the liar has been removed from No 10 that will hopefully be easier.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
They can be helped on the electricity side from the EU - remember they are now connected to the EU grid. We could also supply them with the temporary generators which are now often used when the main supply goes down either for planned maintenance or in an emergency.
Either way these attacks won't make Ukraine surrender. Quite the opposite, they will simply harden Ukrainian resolve. They are as pointless as Hitler's V1s and V2s were.
Imagining the new war will be just like the last war is a perennial mistake. You are doing it
You continue to overestimate both the fragility of the Ukrainian power system and the effectiveness of these drones.
I imagine the Ukrainians are going to have a pretty horrible winter. There will be frequent power cuts. The war is coming again to Kyiv and Lviv.
But don't forget that most normal businesses and factories will have been forced to close by the war already. This means that electricity is demand is likely well down on where it was a year ago.
Coal fired power stations are also not complicated things: pipes can be replaced, boilers patched and repaired. And distributed generation - i.e. a few Aggreko containers - can power city blocks with relative ease (as well as being very hard to detect and destroy).
Then there's the other side of the equation: 2,400 drones sounds like a lot. But don't forget that they only have the oomph of a very small bomb. The total flying weight of the drones (including explosives) is 200 kilograms (440 pounds). If we - generously - assume that the amount of explosive it carries is half that, we get to a 220 pound bomb. An F16's standard bomb (of which it will carry several) is 2,000 pounds.
And let's not forget that not all of those drones are going to reach their targets: some will get shot down, some malfunction, some get lost, and some will simply miss at the end. And there's no shortage of countermeasures that the Ukrainians can take: the easiest of which is simply shining laser pointers on the drones, blinding the camera, and meaning operators will no longer be able to pinpoint exactly what gets hit.
The payload is much less than that - more like 40-80 pounds. They are not at all impressive if you see them as traditional bombs. But if you see them as a new form of air warfare - swarming with suicidal precision on to known targets - they are a lot scarier
I don’t type this with pleasure. But there are an awful lot of PB-ers who don’t want to hear ANYTHING negative/depressing about the war and only want to hear endless stories of Ukrainian brilliance and bravery and squalidly pathetic Russian defeat, and how that means Ukraine obviously wins and then Putin magically disappears
Sadly, reality isn’t like that. Putin still has military options and he can still win. It won’t be easy for him - indeed it will go bloody and difficult - but it is possible
The response so far from the west has been to tell FIFA that Iran should be barred from the upcoming soccer World Cup.
I had something else on the background so initially misheard Drakeford's shout of "some sort of moral high ground" as "some sort of moron hydra". On reflection I think the latter describes the current Government better...
I love the way the brigade of Putin apologists who can't admit that Russia will lose the war think that Putin might now win because of the mighty arms manufacturing capabilities of . . . Iran.
Ukraine with the arms capabilities of NATO, or Russia with the arms capabilities of Iran. Its not exactly David versus Goliath here, is it?
NI will face an election before Christmas, unless power sharing is restored in the next 10 days, the government has confirmed - Chris Heaton Harris hinted at election on 8th or 15 December. Parties don't expect Stormont to be back by 28 Oct so new election next step by law https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1582381074566369280
Are we still in the DUP refusing to play ball phase? I.e. they refuse to serve if Michelle O’Neill is first minister (even though she has, erm, been elected as such)
Yes although the reason has a lot more to do with Bozo's Brexit deal which means checks on all goods coming from the UK while goods coming via Ireland are free flowing.
Bollocks -the DUP don't want Sinn Fein to have the first minister position - every thing is an excuse - if the Brexit issue was sorted they would find another reason not to cooperate.
Stop their pay if they are not sitting. Dismiss them from public service if they wilfully take unauthorised absence and bar them from ever standing again.
They would be back at work in a heartbeat.
The DUP are a bunch of extremist Protestant fascists. Bar them from office. Appoint Alliance as the official opposition with Deputy First Minister. Totally sideline the DUP whilst indicating to DUP voters that they have the choice of voting UUP or being ignored and powerless.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
They can be helped on the electricity side from the EU - remember they are now connected to the EU grid. We could also supply them with the temporary generators which are now often used when the main supply goes down either for planned maintenance or in an emergency.
Either way these attacks won't make Ukraine surrender. Quite the opposite, they will simply harden Ukrainian resolve. They are as pointless as Hitler's V1s and V2s were.
Imagining the new war will be just like the last war is a perennial mistake. You are doing it
You continue to overestimate both the fragility of the Ukrainian power system and the effectiveness of these drones.
I imagine the Ukrainians are going to have a pretty horrible winter. There will be frequent power cuts. The war is coming again to Kyiv and Lviv.
But don't forget that most normal businesses and factories will have been forced to close by the war already. This means that electricity is demand is likely well down on where it was a year ago.
Coal fired power stations are also not complicated things: pipes can be replaced, boilers patched and repaired. And distributed generation - i.e. a few Aggreko containers - can power city blocks with relative ease (as well as being very hard to detect and destroy).
Then there's the other side of the equation: 2,400 drones sounds like a lot. But don't forget that they only have the oomph of a very small bomb. The total flying weight of the drones (including explosives) is 200 kilograms (440 pounds). If we - generously - assume that the amount of explosive it carries is half that, we get to a 220 pound bomb. An F16's standard bomb (of which it will carry several) is 2,000 pounds.
And let's not forget that not all of those drones are going to reach their targets: some will get shot down, some malfunction, some get lost, and some will simply miss at the end. And there's no shortage of countermeasures that the Ukrainians can take: the easiest of which is simply shining laser pointers on the drones, blinding the camera, and meaning operators will no longer be able to pinpoint exactly what gets hit.
The payload is much less than that - more like 40-80 pounds. They are not at all impressive if you see them as traditional bombs. But if you see them as a new form of air warfare - swarming with suicidal precision on to known targets - they are a lot scarier
I don’t type this with pleasure. But there are an awful lot of PB-ers who don’t want to hear ANYTHING negative/depressing about the war and only want to hear endless stories of Ukrainian brilliance and bravery and squalidly pathetic Russian defeat, and how that means Ukraine obviously wins and then Putin magically disappears
Sadly, reality isn’t like that. Putin still has military options and he can still win. It won’t be easy for him - indeed it will go bloody and difficult - but it is possible
Are you the Adult In The Room on this one then?
I fear I am
It’s perfectly possible to put a shield in place to safeguard Ukrainian cities against this form of attack but Biden and Israel have dragged their feet. Equally the US (or Israel) could destroy the Iranian drone factories but it’s seen as a bit provocative.
The whole war now is just about how much pain America decides is an acceptable level for Ukraine to bear but still win, or conversely how much humiliation can be rained on Russia without it being seen as too much of an escalation. For my money, we can swing quite a bit further in Ukraine’s favour without risk but Biden is a cautious old peanut.
Now that the Tories have given us a Poundshop Churchill and a Poundshop Thatcher, I wonder what other lightweight versions of historical heavyweights we might expect?
Poundshop Major is clearly the next variation.
I wonder what a Poundshop Johnson or a Poundshop Truss will be like. Maybe we have this to look forward to. It will be like imagining a more boring version of Starmer.
Odd supermarket finding. Big gaps on the confectionery shelves. Is there a supply problem or have Sainsbury's underestimated the conjunction of halloween, Diwali and people stocking up early for Christmas?
Didn't notice any problems in Asda yesterday or Tesco at the weekend. Could be a local issue?
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
They can be helped on the electricity side from the EU - remember they are now connected to the EU grid. We could also supply them with the temporary generators which are now often used when the main supply goes down either for planned maintenance or in an emergency.
Either way these attacks won't make Ukraine surrender. Quite the opposite, they will simply harden Ukrainian resolve. They are as pointless as Hitler's V1s and V2s were.
Imagining the new war will be just like the last war is a perennial mistake. You are doing it
You continue to overestimate both the fragility of the Ukrainian power system and the effectiveness of these drones.
I imagine the Ukrainians are going to have a pretty horrible winter. There will be frequent power cuts. The war is coming again to Kyiv and Lviv.
But don't forget that most normal businesses and factories will have been forced to close by the war already. This means that electricity is demand is likely well down on where it was a year ago.
Coal fired power stations are also not complicated things: pipes can be replaced, boilers patched and repaired. And distributed generation - i.e. a few Aggreko containers - can power city blocks with relative ease (as well as being very hard to detect and destroy).
Then there's the other side of the equation: 2,400 drones sounds like a lot. But don't forget that they only have the oomph of a very small bomb. The total flying weight of the drones (including explosives) is 200 kilograms (440 pounds). If we - generously - assume that the amount of explosive it carries is half that, we get to a 220 pound bomb. An F16's standard bomb (of which it will carry several) is 2,000 pounds.
And let's not forget that not all of those drones are going to reach their targets: some will get shot down, some malfunction, some get lost, and some will simply miss at the end. And there's no shortage of countermeasures that the Ukrainians can take: the easiest of which is simply shining laser pointers on the drones, blinding the camera, and meaning operators will no longer be able to pinpoint exactly what gets hit.
The payload is much less than that - more like 40-80 pounds. They are not at all impressive if you see them as traditional bombs. But if you see them as a new form of air warfare - swarming with suicidal precision on to known targets - they are a lot scarier
I don’t type this with pleasure. But there are an awful lot of PB-ers who don’t want to hear ANYTHING negative/depressing about the war and only want to hear endless stories of Ukrainian brilliance and bravery and squalidly pathetic Russian defeat, and how that means Ukraine obviously wins and then Putin magically disappears
Sadly, reality isn’t like that. Putin still has military options and he can still win. It won’t be easy for him - indeed it will go bloody and difficult - but it is possible
The response so far from the west has been to tell FIFA that Iran should be barred from the upcoming soccer World Cup.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
2400 drones. If they send ~100/day that's 24 days. Of those, 80%+ are shot down (and that number will rise as more air defence comes online)
This sounds more like a harassing measure, unless they can significantly improve penetration, and/or significantly improve targeting.
OR they source a constant new supply. How difficult is this shit?
Too difficult for PB, it seems
It is possible that they will - but I wouldn't count on that. I imagine there are some people giving considerable thought to covert means by which that can be prevented.
I'm by no means saying that you are wrong, just that RU has surprised us on the downside where these logistical matters have been concerned, thus far.
I get the horrible feeling we are seeing a formidable new axis emerging, which perceives us as the enemy and is quite self sufficient in technology basically as good as ours
The main players are Russia, China and Iran. Plus their satellites. India is damagingly neutral
Russia’s military is quite shit but with China supplying weapons and parts via Iran (I bet that this is happening) that makes a Eurasian chain of materiel we cannot easily interdict
And that’s how Russia might win in Ukraine unless we are willing to go full nuclear confrontation over Lviv
Xi’s speech to the CCP was bristling with hostility and intent. They will move on Taiwan within a few years, for sure
This threat has been with us for the last decade, at least. The war in Ukraine has bought the problem out in to the open. It is better to deal with the threat now, than in 5 years time. It is also working to our advantage as it is blunting Russias capability and status as a world power.
I love the way the brigade of Putin apologists who can't admit that Russia will lose the war think that Putin might now win because of the mighty arms manufacturing capabilities of . . . Iran.
Ukraine with the arms capabilities of NATO, or Russia with the arms capabilities of Iran. Its not exactly David versus Goliath here, is it?
That's true, but the issue is that Russia / Iran's weapons can strike all Ukraine's territory. Ukraine cannot really attack Russian territory, except occasional strikes into the border areas. So Russia can just sit back and hurt Ukraine, whilst Ukraine really cannot hurt Russia directly.
Which is where sanctions come in. If Russia loses this war, most of the reason will not be western weapons, or Ukraine's brilliant martial spirit. Most of the reason will be the damage the sanctions are doing to Russia's economy. I only hope the sanctions continue to bite harder, and that Russia does not manage to subvert to many of them.
Iran has promised to provide Russia with surface to surface missiles, in addition to more drones, two senior Iranian officials and two Iranian diplomats tell Reuters
There's quite a few world cups going on at the moment.
Soccer is a good and acceptable English word from the 19th century.
It comes from association.
Thanks for the etymological lesson. I can't bear the word soccer though, I heard it too often living in the States. It has to be football, or fitba. Of course there are all kinds of world cups (cricket, tiddlywinks, rugby in order of importance) but there is only one World Cup.* * not very woke of me with respect to the women's game sorry.
Association Football is a lot of syllables, but it's preferable to soccer and avoids confusion when speaking with people for whom football defaults to American or GAA versions.
Assball, for short?
Gaeball and Amball, too, for consistency.
Can't see any problems with any of those
In Leicester - Leicester Football Club is the Rugby Club.
True, but in my experience generally referred to as "Tigers" to avoid any confusion. Though oviously Foxy knows many more people from Leicester than I do, so no doubt he will correct me in due course if I'm wrong!
NI will face an election before Christmas, unless power sharing is restored in the next 10 days, the government has confirmed - Chris Heaton Harris hinted at election on 8th or 15 December. Parties don't expect Stormont to be back by 28 Oct so new election next step by law https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1582381074566369280
Are we still in the DUP refusing to play ball phase? I.e. they refuse to serve if Michelle O’Neill is first minister (even though she has, erm, been elected as such)
Yes although the reason has a lot more to do with Bozo's Brexit deal which means checks on all goods coming from the UK while goods coming via Ireland are free flowing.
Bollocks -the DUP don't want Sinn Fein to have the first minister position - every thing is an excuse - if the Brexit issue was sorted they would find another reason not to cooperate.
How can they prevent it going forward? If there is a new election the UK government should be absolutely clear they will not endorse a no show. Now the liar has been removed from No 10 that
will hopefully be easier.
The Alliance should say it will identify as unionist and fill the DPM seat if the Duppers are unwilling. They have done similarly before for tactical reasons. Might focus a few minds.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
2400 drones. If they send ~100/day that's 24 days. Of those, 80%+ are shot down (and that number will rise as more air defence comes online)
This sounds more like a harassing measure, unless they can significantly improve penetration, and/or significantly improve targeting.
OR they source a constant new supply. How difficult is this shit?
Too difficult for PB, it seems
It is possible that they will - but I wouldn't count on that. I imagine there are some people giving considerable thought to covert means by which that can be prevented.
I'm by no means saying that you are wrong, just that RU has surprised us on the downside where these logistical matters have been concerned, thus far.
I get the horrible feeling we are seeing a formidable new axis emerging, which perceives us as the enemy and is quite self sufficient in technology basically as good as ours
The main players are Russia, China and Iran. Plus their satellites. India is damagingly neutral
Russia’s military is quite shit but with China supplying weapons and parts via Iran (I bet that this is happening) that makes a Eurasian chain of materiel we cannot easily interdict
And that’s how Russia might win in Ukraine unless we are willing to go full nuclear confrontation over Lviv
Xi’s speech to the CCP was bristling with hostility and intent. They will move on Taiwan within a few years, for sure
Leon, can you define what you mean by 'win' when you talk about Russia 'winning' ?
Sure. I’ve done it many times before but happy to do it again
Russia wins if it militarily takes Kyiv, deposes Zelensky, instals a friendlier Kyiv regime, gets a ceasefire in all Ukraine and “negotiations” about the annexed territories
Something like that?
In the long run Russia cannot win. It has ensured that 40 million Ukrainians - right on the Russian border - will hate Russia forever. For generations. Even if it “wins” Moscow has guaranteed half a century of violence and insurrection - aimed at Russia
The war was a colossal blunder by Putin. And no one in the west will ever buy his energy consistently. In economic terms Russia will probably become a Chinese and then Indian vassal. And the oligarchs will never again get to play in London and the Med
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
They can be helped on the electricity side from the EU - remember they are now connected to the EU grid. We could also supply them with the temporary generators which are now often used when the main supply goes down either for planned maintenance or in an emergency.
Either way these attacks won't make Ukraine surrender. Quite the opposite, they will simply harden Ukrainian resolve. They are as pointless as Hitler's V1s and V2s were.
2400 moderate sized model airplanes doesn't win a war.
These Iranian drones are not “model airplanes”
“The British military describes the Shahed-136’s 80-pound payload as small. Still, its precision targeting gives it a potentially devastating effect. A Ukrainian officer who saw the drone used in combat said it could target a self-propelled howitzer near where the gunpowder was stored, causing a greater explosion than its warhead alone would achieve.”
More importantly, they are so cheap they can be used in suicidal SWARMS. That’s when they become seriously dangerous to Ukraine - and its infrastructure
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
2400 drones. If they send ~100/day that's 24 days. Of those, 80%+ are shot down (and that number will rise as more air defence comes online)
This sounds more like a harassing measure, unless they can significantly improve penetration, and/or significantly improve targeting.
OR they source a constant new supply. How difficult is this shit?
Too difficult for PB, it seems
It is possible that they will - but I wouldn't count on that. I imagine there are some people giving considerable thought to covert means by which that can be prevented.
I'm by no means saying that you are wrong, just that RU has surprised us on the downside where these logistical matters have been concerned, thus far.
I get the horrible feeling we are seeing a formidable new axis emerging, which perceives us as the enemy and is quite self sufficient in technology basically as good as ours
The main players are Russia, China and Iran. Plus their satellites. India is damagingly neutral
Russia’s military is quite shit but with China supplying weapons and parts via Iran (I bet that this is happening) that makes a Eurasian chain of materiel we cannot easily interdict
And that’s how Russia might win in Ukraine unless we are willing to go full nuclear confrontation over Lviv
Xi’s speech to the CCP was bristling with hostility and intent. They will move on Taiwan within a few years, for sure
I agree that this military axis exists. And I agree that this poses a significant threat to Western interests.
But I don't think it is simply "them" against "us".
China has a much more sophisticated understanding of the global power "supply chain" than exists in the West, where these 'biopolar' views prevail.
In the case of Ukraine, for example, I think China understands that it is not in China's interests for Russia to "win". I think they would much rather bleed both Western *and* Russian resources to their own benefit, for as long as it can be sustained.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
They can be helped on the electricity side from the EU - remember they are now connected to the EU grid. We could also supply them with the temporary generators which are now often used when the main supply goes down either for planned maintenance or in an emergency.
Either way these attacks won't make Ukraine surrender. Quite the opposite, they will simply harden Ukrainian resolve. They are as pointless as Hitler's V1s and V2s were.
Imagining the new war will be just like the last war is a perennial mistake. You are doing it
You continue to overestimate both the fragility of the Ukrainian power system and the effectiveness of these drones.
I imagine the Ukrainians are going to have a pretty horrible winter. There will be frequent power cuts. The war is coming again to Kyiv and Lviv.
But don't forget that most normal businesses and factories will have been forced to close by the war already. This means that electricity is demand is likely well down on where it was a year ago.
Coal fired power stations are also not complicated things: pipes can be replaced, boilers patched and repaired. And distributed generation - i.e. a few Aggreko containers - can power city blocks with relative ease (as well as being very hard to detect and destroy).
Then there's the other side of the equation: 2,400 drones sounds like a lot. But don't forget that they only have the oomph of a very small bomb. The total flying weight of the drones (including explosives) is 200 kilograms (440 pounds). If we - generously - assume that the amount of explosive it carries is half that, we get to a 220 pound bomb. An F16's standard bomb (of which it will carry several) is 2,000 pounds.
And let's not forget that not all of those drones are going to reach their targets: some will get shot down, some malfunction, some get lost, and some will simply miss at the end. And there's no shortage of countermeasures that the Ukrainians can take: the easiest of which is simply shining laser pointers on the drones, blinding the camera, and meaning operators will no longer be able to pinpoint exactly what gets hit.
The payload is much less than that - more like 40-80 pounds. They are not at all impressive if you see them as traditional bombs. But if you see them as a new form of air warfare - swarming with suicidal precision on to known targets - they are a lot scarier
I don’t type this with pleasure. But there are an awful lot of PB-ers who don’t want to hear ANYTHING negative/depressing about the war and only want to hear endless stories of Ukrainian brilliance and bravery and squalidly pathetic Russian defeat, and how that means Ukraine obviously wins and then Putin magically disappears
Sadly, reality isn’t like that. Putin still has military options and he can still win. It won’t be easy for him - indeed it will go bloody and difficult - but it is possible
Are you the Adult In The Room on this one then?
I fear I am
It’s perfectly possible to put a shield in place to safeguard Ukrainian cities against this form of attack but Biden and Israel have dragged their feet. Equally the US (or Israel) could destroy the Iranian drone factories but it’s seen as a bit provocative.
The whole war now is just about how much pain America decides is an acceptable level for Ukraine to bear but still win, or conversely how much humiliation can be rained on Russia without it being seen as too much of an escalation. For my money, we can swing quite a bit further in Ukraine’s favour without risk but Biden is a cautious old peanut.
"It’s perfectly possible to put a shield in place to safeguard Ukrainian cities against this form of attack"
AIUI it is fairly hard to provide such a shield. Which is why this development is quite worrying to many western militaries.
NI will face an election before Christmas, unless power sharing is restored in the next 10 days, the government has confirmed - Chris Heaton Harris hinted at election on 8th or 15 December. Parties don't expect Stormont to be back by 28 Oct so new election next step by law https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1582381074566369280
Are we still in the DUP refusing to play ball phase? I.e. they refuse to serve if Michelle O’Neill is first minister (even though she has, erm, been elected as such)
Yes although the reason has a lot more to do with Bozo's Brexit deal which means checks on all goods coming from the UK while goods coming via Ireland are free flowing.
Bollocks -the DUP don't want Sinn Fein to have the first minister position - every thing is an excuse - if the Brexit issue was sorted they would find another reason not to cooperate.
How can they prevent it going forward? If there is a new election the UK government should be absolutely clear they will not endorse a no show. Now the liar has been removed from No 10 that
will hopefully be easier.
The Alliance should say it will identify as unionist and fill the DPM seat if the Duppers are unwilling. They have done similarly before for tactical reasons. Might focus a few minds.
Does it not have to be the 2nd largest party? In which case why has Stormont not been sitting until now?
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
They can be helped on the electricity side from the EU - remember they are now connected to the EU grid. We could also supply them with the temporary generators which are now often used when the main supply goes down either for planned maintenance or in an emergency.
Either way these attacks won't make Ukraine surrender. Quite the opposite, they will simply harden Ukrainian resolve. They are as pointless as Hitler's V1s and V2s were.
Imagining the new war will be just like the last war is a perennial mistake. You are doing it
You continue to overestimate both the fragility of the Ukrainian power system and the effectiveness of these drones.
I imagine the Ukrainians are going to have a pretty horrible winter. There will be frequent power cuts. The war is coming again to Kyiv and Lviv.
But don't forget that most normal businesses and factories will have been forced to close by the war already. This means that electricity is demand is likely well down on where it was a year ago.
Coal fired power stations are also not complicated things: pipes can be replaced, boilers patched and repaired. And distributed generation - i.e. a few Aggreko containers - can power city blocks with relative ease (as well as being very hard to detect and destroy).
Then there's the other side of the equation: 2,400 drones sounds like a lot. But don't forget that they only have the oomph of a very small bomb. The total flying weight of the drones (including explosives) is 200 kilograms (440 pounds). If we - generously - assume that the amount of explosive it carries is half that, we get to a 220 pound bomb. An F16's standard bomb (of which it will carry several) is 2,000 pounds.
And let's not forget that not all of those drones are going to reach their targets: some will get shot down, some malfunction, some get lost, and some will simply miss at the end. And there's no shortage of countermeasures that the Ukrainians can take: the easiest of which is simply shining laser pointers on the drones, blinding the camera, and meaning operators will no longer be able to pinpoint exactly what gets hit.
The payload is much less than that - more like 40-80 pounds. They are not at all impressive if you see them as traditional bombs. But if you see them as a new form of air warfare - swarming with suicidal precision on to known targets - they are a lot scarier
I don’t type this with pleasure. But there are an awful lot of PB-ers who don’t want to hear ANYTHING negative/depressing about the war and only want to hear endless stories of Ukrainian brilliance and bravery and squalidly pathetic Russian defeat, and how that means Ukraine obviously wins and then Putin magically disappears
Sadly, reality isn’t like that. Putin still has military options and he can still win. It won’t be easy for him - indeed it will go bloody and difficult - but it is possible
The response so far from the west has been to tell FIFA that Iran should be barred from the upcoming soccer World Cup.
If it was me, I'd invade Iran.
Really Tory PMs invade Iran.
What a great idea, you are Suella Braverman and I claim my £5. A Falklands factor to elevate Truss to cosmic Thatcherite mega stardom and grind the hapless Starmer into the ground. What could possibly go wrong?
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
They can be helped on the electricity side from the EU - remember they are now connected to the EU grid. We could also supply them with the temporary generators which are now often used when the main supply goes down either for planned maintenance or in an emergency.
Either way these attacks won't make Ukraine surrender. Quite the opposite, they will simply harden Ukrainian resolve. They are as pointless as Hitler's V1s and V2s were.
Imagining the new war will be just like the last war is a perennial mistake. You are doing it
You continue to overestimate both the fragility of the Ukrainian power system and the effectiveness of these drones.
I imagine the Ukrainians are going to have a pretty horrible winter. There will be frequent power cuts. The war is coming again to Kyiv and Lviv.
But don't forget that most normal businesses and factories will have been forced to close by the war already. This means that electricity is demand is likely well down on where it was a year ago.
Coal fired power stations are also not complicated things: pipes can be replaced, boilers patched and repaired. And distributed generation - i.e. a few Aggreko containers - can power city blocks with relative ease (as well as being very hard to detect and destroy).
Then there's the other side of the equation: 2,400 drones sounds like a lot. But don't forget that they only have the oomph of a very small bomb. The total flying weight of the drones (including explosives) is 200 kilograms (440 pounds). If we - generously - assume that the amount of explosive it carries is half that, we get to a 220 pound bomb. An F16's standard bomb (of which it will carry several) is 2,000 pounds.
And let's not forget that not all of those drones are going to reach their targets: some will get shot down, some malfunction, some get lost, and some will simply miss at the end. And there's no shortage of countermeasures that the Ukrainians can take: the easiest of which is simply shining laser pointers on the drones, blinding the camera, and meaning operators will no longer be able to pinpoint exactly what gets hit.
The payload is much less than that - more like 40-80 pounds. They are not at all impressive if you see them as traditional bombs. But if you see them as a new form of air warfare - swarming with suicidal precision on to known targets - they are a lot scarier
I don’t type this with pleasure. But there are an awful lot of PB-ers who don’t want to hear ANYTHING negative/depressing about the war and only want to hear endless stories of Ukrainian brilliance and bravery and squalidly pathetic Russian defeat, and how that means Ukraine obviously wins and then Putin magically disappears
Sadly, reality isn’t like that. Putin still has military options and he can still win. It won’t be easy for him - indeed it will go bloody and difficult - but it is possible
The response so far from the west has been to tell FIFA that Iran should be barred from the upcoming soccer World Cup.
If it was me, I'd invade Iran.
Really Tory PMs invade Iran.
Threads of course begins with a US-Russia conflict in Iran.
NI will face an election before Christmas, unless power sharing is restored in the next 10 days, the government has confirmed - Chris Heaton Harris hinted at election on 8th or 15 December. Parties don't expect Stormont to be back by 28 Oct so new election next step by law https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1582381074566369280
Are we still in the DUP refusing to play ball phase? I.e. they refuse to serve if Michelle O’Neill is first minister (even though she has, erm, been elected as such)
Yes although the reason has a lot more to do with Bozo's Brexit deal which means checks on all goods coming from the UK while goods coming via Ireland are free flowing.
Bollocks -the DUP don't want Sinn Fein to have the first minister position - every thing is an excuse - if the Brexit issue was sorted they would find another reason not to cooperate.
Stop their pay if they are not sitting. Dismiss them from public service if they wilfully take unauthorised absence and bar them from ever standing again.
They would be back at work in a heartbeat.
The DUP are a bunch of extremist Protestant fascists. Bar them from office. Appoint Alliance as the official opposition with Deputy First Minister. Totally sideline the DUP whilst indicating to DUP voters that they have the choice of voting UUP or being ignored and powerless.
Unfortunately this bunch of fascists have been appointed as a result of a democratic vote by electors. You could also argue that Sinn Fein should be barred for refusing the Oath to the King or their history of violence, but they too are democratically elected.
What I am proposing is firing them for letting down their electorate by refusing to do what they were elected to do.
If Norn Iron wants the Alliance in, they can vote them in.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
2400 drones. If they send ~100/day that's 24 days. Of those, 80%+ are shot down (and that number will rise as more air defence comes online)
This sounds more like a harassing measure, unless they can significantly improve penetration, and/or significantly improve targeting.
OR they source a constant new supply. How difficult is this shit?
Too difficult for PB, it seems
It is possible that they will - but I wouldn't count on that. I imagine there are some people giving considerable thought to covert means by which that can be prevented.
I'm by no means saying that you are wrong, just that RU has surprised us on the downside where these logistical matters have been concerned, thus far.
I get the horrible feeling we are seeing a formidable new axis emerging, which perceives us as the enemy and is quite self sufficient in technology basically as good as ours
The main players are Russia, China and Iran. Plus their satellites. India is damagingly neutral
Russia’s military is quite shit but with China supplying weapons and parts via Iran (I bet that this is happening) that makes a Eurasian chain of materiel we cannot easily interdict
And that’s how Russia might win in Ukraine unless we are willing to go full nuclear confrontation over Lviv
Xi’s speech to the CCP was bristling with hostility and intent. They will move on Taiwan within a few years, for sure
In the short term, Russia is complaining about the poor quality of Chinese components it has been forced to buy on the grey market.
I wonder what a Poundshop Eden would do? Perhaps he would retreat from an invasion of the Manchester Ship Canal due to a lack of support from the Welsh government?
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
They can be helped on the electricity side from the EU - remember they are now connected to the EU grid. We could also supply them with the temporary generators which are now often used when the main supply goes down either for planned maintenance or in an emergency.
Either way these attacks won't make Ukraine surrender. Quite the opposite, they will simply harden Ukrainian resolve. They are as pointless as Hitler's V1s and V2s were.
Imagining the new war will be just like the last war is a perennial mistake. You are doing it
You continue to overestimate both the fragility of the Ukrainian power system and the effectiveness of these drones.
I imagine the Ukrainians are going to have a pretty horrible winter. There will be frequent power cuts. The war is coming again to Kyiv and Lviv.
But don't forget that most normal businesses and factories will have been forced to close by the war already. This means that electricity is demand is likely well down on where it was a year ago.
Coal fired power stations are also not complicated things: pipes can be replaced, boilers patched and repaired. And distributed generation - i.e. a few Aggreko containers - can power city blocks with relative ease (as well as being very hard to detect and destroy).
Then there's the other side of the equation: 2,400 drones sounds like a lot. But don't forget that they only have the oomph of a very small bomb. The total flying weight of the drones (including explosives) is 200 kilograms (440 pounds). If we - generously - assume that the amount of explosive it carries is half that, we get to a 220 pound bomb. An F16's standard bomb (of which it will carry several) is 2,000 pounds.
And let's not forget that not all of those drones are going to reach their targets: some will get shot down, some malfunction, some get lost, and some will simply miss at the end. And there's no shortage of countermeasures that the Ukrainians can take: the easiest of which is simply shining laser pointers on the drones, blinding the camera, and meaning operators will no longer be able to pinpoint exactly what gets hit.
The payload is much less than that - more like 40-80 pounds. They are not at all impressive if you see them as traditional bombs. But if you see them as a new form of air warfare - swarming with suicidal precision on to known targets - they are a lot scarier
I don’t type this with pleasure. But there are an awful lot of PB-ers who don’t want to hear ANYTHING negative/depressing about the war and only want to hear endless stories of Ukrainian brilliance and bravery and squalidly pathetic Russian defeat, and how that means Ukraine obviously wins and then Putin magically disappears
Sadly, reality isn’t like that. Putin still has military options and he can still win. It won’t be easy for him - indeed it will go bloody and difficult - but it is possible
The response so far from the west has been to tell FIFA that Iran should be barred from the upcoming soccer World Cup.
If it was me, I'd invade Iran.
Really Tory PMs invade Iran.
Threads of course begins with a US-Russia conflict in Iran.
Kitty Donaldson @kitty_donaldson NEW: The Conservatives caved in and allowed a free vote on abortion clinic buffer zones, a fresh sign that whips don’t want to pick fights they can’t win with mutinous backbenchers
I guess everyone on here except HUYFD will be happy with this (it's an amendment that introduces the buffer zones btw).
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
2400 drones. If they send ~100/day that's 24 days. Of those, 80%+ are shot down (and that number will rise as more air defence comes online)
This sounds more like a harassing measure, unless they can significantly improve penetration, and/or significantly improve targeting.
OR they source a constant new supply. How difficult is this shit?
Too difficult for PB, it seems
It is possible that they will - but I wouldn't count on that. I imagine there are some people giving considerable thought to covert means by which that can be prevented.
I'm by no means saying that you are wrong, just that RU has surprised us on the downside where these logistical matters have been concerned, thus far.
I get the horrible feeling we are seeing a formidable new axis emerging, which perceives us as the enemy and is quite self sufficient in technology basically as good as ours
The main players are Russia, China and Iran. Plus their satellites. India is damagingly neutral
Russia’s military is quite shit but with China supplying weapons and parts via Iran (I bet that this is happening) that makes a Eurasian chain of materiel we cannot easily interdict
And that’s how Russia might win in Ukraine unless we are willing to go full nuclear confrontation over Lviv
Xi’s speech to the CCP was bristling with hostility and intent. They will move on Taiwan within a few years, for sure
Leon, can you define what you mean by 'win' when you talk about Russia 'winning' ?
Sure. I’ve done it many times before but happy to do it again
Russia wins if it militarily takes Kyiv, deposes Zelensky, instals a friendlier Kyiv regime, gets a ceasefire in all Ukraine and “negotiations” about the annexed territories
Something like that? ...
The only part of the above it has any hope of doing is forcing an armistice and holding currently seized territories. "Taking Kiev" is a fantasy, towards which Iranian drones are irrelevant.
And unless it breaks Ukraine's will, which seems pretty unlikely, the ceasefire on Russia's terms isn't going to happen either.
Now that the Tories have given us a Poundshop Churchill and a Poundshop Thatcher, I wonder what other lightweight versions of historical heavyweights we might expect?
Poundshop Major is clearly the next variation.
I wonder what a Poundshop Johnson or a Poundshop Truss will be like. Maybe we have this to look forward to. It will be like imagining a more boring version of Starmer.
The Poundshop Truss will be better than the original.
The question remains the one I asked @HYUFD earlier on and then the Telegraph asked rhetorically afterwards.
What exactly do you believe in if you are a Tory these days.
Your party has performed a 180 degree change in policy so what kind of political beliefs do you hold if you supported them after the mini-budget and you support them now.
Fiscal responsibility again, not pure libertarianism, the monarchy, choice, maintaining Brexit etc
'People could die because of Thérèse Coffey’s “ultra-libertarian ideological” reluctance to crack down on smoking and obesity, a Conservative ex-health minister has warned.
The strongly worded criticism of the health secretary came from Dr Dan Poulter, a Tory MP and NHS doctor who served as a health minister in the coalition government from 2012 to 2015.
Poulter claims Coffey’s “hostility to what the extreme right call ‘nanny statism’” is stopping her from taking firm action against the “major killers” of tobacco and bad diet.
[...]
The government’s widely anticipated scrapping of measures to curb obesity such as the sugar tax and ditching of the tobacco control plan and health inequalities white paper – both of which previous health ministers had promised to publish – have led Poulter to brand Coffey’s stance “deeply alarming”'
Coffey wants to present herself as a role model for the health of the nation.
Worst poster girl ever. Just need her in a short tennis dress hitching it up over one buttock.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
2400 drones. If they send ~100/day that's 24 days. Of those, 80%+ are shot down (and that number will rise as more air defence comes online)
This sounds more like a harassing measure, unless they can significantly improve penetration, and/or significantly improve targeting.
OR they source a constant new supply. How difficult is this shit?
Too difficult for PB, it seems
It is possible that they will - but I wouldn't count on that. I imagine there are some people giving considerable thought to covert means by which that can be prevented.
I'm by no means saying that you are wrong, just that RU has surprised us on the downside where these logistical matters have been concerned, thus far.
I get the horrible feeling we are seeing a formidable new axis emerging, which perceives us as the enemy and is quite self sufficient in technology basically as good as ours
The main players are Russia, China and Iran. Plus their satellites. India is damagingly neutral
Russia’s military is quite shit but with China supplying weapons and parts via Iran (I bet that this is happening) that makes a Eurasian chain of materiel we cannot easily interdict
And that’s how Russia might win in Ukraine unless we are willing to go full nuclear confrontation over Lviv
Xi’s speech to the CCP was bristling with hostility and intent. They will move on Taiwan within a few years, for sure
Leon, can you define what you mean by 'win' when you talk about Russia 'winning' ?
Sure. I’ve done it many times before but happy to do it again
Russia wins if it militarily takes Kyiv, deposes Zelensky, instals a friendlier Kyiv regime, gets a ceasefire in all Ukraine and “negotiations” about the annexed territories
Something like that?
In the long run Russia cannot win. It has ensured that 40 million Ukrainians - right on the Russian border - will hate Russia forever. For generations. Even if it “wins” Moscow has guaranteed half a century of violence and insurrection - aimed at Russia
The war was a colossal blunder by Putin. And no one in the west will ever buy his energy consistently. In economic terms Russia will probably become a Chinese and then Indian vassal. And the oligarchs will never again get to play in London and the Med
Even if Russia was to automagically get control over all Ukraine tonight, it won't be a 'win' for them, as long as sanctions remain. Their military has been embarrassed (and military sales are massively important to their economy and soft power), and their economy is hurting. No-one will trust them as an energy provider in the future, and although they will sell energy, no-one will rely on them. And who would want Russian weapon systems that are fit only for a turret-tossing competition?
I cannot see a way Russia ends up richer and more powerful than it was before the war. And that's only a lose for them.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
2400 drones. If they send ~100/day that's 24 days. Of those, 80%+ are shot down (and that number will rise as more air defence comes online)
This sounds more like a harassing measure, unless they can significantly improve penetration, and/or significantly improve targeting.
OR they source a constant new supply. How difficult is this shit?
Too difficult for PB, it seems
It is possible that they will - but I wouldn't count on that. I imagine there are some people giving considerable thought to covert means by which that can be prevented.
I'm by no means saying that you are wrong, just that RU has surprised us on the downside where these logistical matters have been concerned, thus far.
I get the horrible feeling we are seeing a formidable new axis emerging, which perceives us as the enemy and is quite self sufficient in technology basically as good as ours
The main players are Russia, China and Iran. Plus their satellites. India is damagingly neutral
Russia’s military is quite shit but with China supplying weapons and parts via Iran (I bet that this is happening) that makes a Eurasian chain of materiel we cannot easily interdict
And that’s how Russia might win in Ukraine unless we are willing to go full nuclear confrontation over Lviv
Xi’s speech to the CCP was bristling with hostility and intent. They will move on Taiwan within a few years, for sure
In the short term, Russia is complaining about the poor quality of Chinese components it has been forced to buy on the grey market.
hearing that rebel Tories have been asking Labour MPs to help them overthrow Liz Truss
Conservative backbenchers are growing increasingly frustrated with the PM's leadership, but currently lack any mechanisms to remove her
One Labour MP tells me: "Tories are speaking to us saying 'this is a complete nightmare and there is no way out'. We are being asked 'can't you do something about her?'"
The question remains the one I asked @HYUFD earlier on and then the Telegraph asked rhetorically afterwards.
What exactly do you believe in if you are a Tory these days.
Your party has performed a 180 degree change in policy so what kind of political beliefs do you hold if you supported them after the mini-budget and you support them now.
Fiscal responsibility again, not pure libertarianism, the monarchy, choice, maintaining Brexit etc
'People could die because of Thérèse Coffey’s “ultra-libertarian ideological” reluctance to crack down on smoking and obesity, a Conservative ex-health minister has warned.
The strongly worded criticism of the health secretary came from Dr Dan Poulter, a Tory MP and NHS doctor who served as a health minister in the coalition government from 2012 to 2015.
Poulter claims Coffey’s “hostility to what the extreme right call ‘nanny statism’” is stopping her from taking firm action against the “major killers” of tobacco and bad diet.
[...]
The government’s widely anticipated scrapping of measures to curb obesity such as the sugar tax and ditching of the tobacco control plan and health inequalities white paper – both of which previous health ministers had promised to publish – have led Poulter to brand Coffey’s stance “deeply alarming”'
Coffey wants to present herself as a role model for the health of the nation.
Worst poster girl ever. Just need her in a short tennis dress hitching it up over one buttock.
Ewwwwwwww.
Shame on you for sharing the degenerate thoughts of your mind.
Extraordinary poll from @InstituteGC. Strong majority think Brexit has damaged economy. Tiny number believe we should keep things as they are. More *Leave* voters support rejoin or Single Market than status quo. 70:30 majority overall for closer relationship with EU. https://twitter.com/SteveMorris123/status/1582372738152665088/photo/1
Ah, I see what he did there. He combined the two most extreme options on one side and compared that with one option - not the most extreme one - on the other side.
Leave voters: Rejoin 9, single market or rejoin 22; fewer ties than now 13, status quo or fewer ties than now 23.
One very interesting thing on that chart is that 2016 non voters' responses are most similar to the overall figure - not to 2016 Remain voters as you zealots would have us believe.
And only 45% of 2016 Remain voters favour rejoining within 10-15 years. And as usual that will be inflated by people who wrongly think rejoining on the previous terms could be possible.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
2400 drones. If they send ~100/day that's 24 days. Of those, 80%+ are shot down (and that number will rise as more air defence comes online)
This sounds more like a harassing measure, unless they can significantly improve penetration, and/or significantly improve targeting.
OR they source a constant new supply. How difficult is this shit?
Too difficult for PB, it seems
It is possible that they will - but I wouldn't count on that. I imagine there are some people giving considerable thought to covert means by which that can be prevented.
I'm by no means saying that you are wrong, just that RU has surprised us on the downside where these logistical matters have been concerned, thus far.
I get the horrible feeling we are seeing a formidable new axis emerging, which perceives us as the enemy and is quite self sufficient in technology basically as good as ours
The main players are Russia, China and Iran. Plus their satellites. India is damagingly neutral
Russia’s military is quite shit but with China supplying weapons and parts via Iran (I bet that this is happening) that makes a Eurasian chain of materiel we cannot easily interdict
And that’s how Russia might win in Ukraine unless we are willing to go full nuclear confrontation over Lviv
Xi’s speech to the CCP was bristling with hostility and intent. They will move on Taiwan within a few years, for sure
Leon, can you define what you mean by 'win' when you talk about Russia 'winning' ?
Sure. I’ve done it many times before but happy to do it again
Russia wins if it militarily takes Kyiv, deposes Zelensky, instals a friendlier Kyiv regime, gets a ceasefire in all Ukraine and “negotiations” about the annexed territories
Something like that?
In the long run Russia cannot win. It has ensured that 40 million Ukrainians - right on the Russian border - will hate Russia forever. For generations. Even if it “wins” Moscow has guaranteed half a century of violence and insurrection - aimed at Russia
The war was a colossal blunder by Putin. And no one in the west will ever buy his energy consistently. In economic terms Russia will probably become a Chinese and then Indian vassal. And the oligarchs will never again get to play in London and the Med
Even if Russia was to automagically get control over all Ukraine tonight, it won't be a 'win' for them, as long as sanctions remain. Their military has been embarrassed (and military sales are massively important to their economy and soft power), and their economy is hurting. No-one will trust them as an energy provider in the future, and although they will sell energy, no-one will rely on them. And who would want Russian weapon systems that are fit only for a turret-tossing competition?
I cannot see a way Russia ends up richer and more powerful than it was before the war. And that's only a lose for them.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
They can be helped on the electricity side from the EU - remember they are now connected to the EU grid. We could also supply them with the temporary generators which are now often used when the main supply goes down either for planned maintenance or in an emergency.
Either way these attacks won't make Ukraine surrender. Quite the opposite, they will simply harden Ukrainian resolve. They are as pointless as Hitler's V1s and V2s were.
Imagining the new war will be just like the last war is a perennial mistake. You are doing it
You continue to overestimate both the fragility of the Ukrainian power system and the effectiveness of these drones.
I imagine the Ukrainians are going to have a pretty horrible winter. There will be frequent power cuts. The war is coming again to Kyiv and Lviv.
But don't forget that most normal businesses and factories will have been forced to close by the war already. This means that electricity is demand is likely well down on where it was a year ago.
Coal fired power stations are also not complicated things: pipes can be replaced, boilers patched and repaired. And distributed generation - i.e. a few Aggreko containers - can power city blocks with relative ease (as well as being very hard to detect and destroy).
Then there's the other side of the equation: 2,400 drones sounds like a lot. But don't forget that they only have the oomph of a very small bomb. The total flying weight of the drones (including explosives) is 200 kilograms (440 pounds). If we - generously - assume that the amount of explosive it carries is half that, we get to a 220 pound bomb. An F16's standard bomb (of which it will carry several) is 2,000 pounds.
And let's not forget that not all of those drones are going to reach their targets: some will get shot down, some malfunction, some get lost, and some will simply miss at the end. And there's no shortage of countermeasures that the Ukrainians can take: the easiest of which is simply shining laser pointers on the drones, blinding the camera, and meaning operators will no longer be able to pinpoint exactly what gets hit.
The payload is much less than that - more like 40-80 pounds. They are not at all impressive if you see them as traditional bombs. But if you see them as a new form of air warfare - swarming with suicidal precision on to known targets - they are a lot scarier
I don’t type this with pleasure. But there are an awful lot of PB-ers who don’t want to hear ANYTHING negative/depressing about the war and only want to hear endless stories of Ukrainian brilliance and bravery and squalidly pathetic Russian defeat, and how that means Ukraine obviously wins and then Putin magically disappears
Sadly, reality isn’t like that. Putin still has military options and he can still win. It won’t be easy for him - indeed it will go bloody and difficult - but it is possible
Are you the Adult In The Room on this one then?
I fear I am
It’s perfectly possible to put a shield in place to safeguard Ukrainian cities against this form of attack but Biden and Israel have dragged their feet. Equally the US (or Israel) could destroy the Iranian drone factories but it’s seen as a bit provocative.
The whole war now is just about how much pain America decides is an acceptable level for Ukraine to bear but still win, or conversely how much humiliation can be rained on Russia without it being seen as too much of an escalation. For my money, we can swing quite a bit further in Ukraine’s favour without risk but Biden is a cautious old peanut.
"It’s perfectly possible to put a shield in place to safeguard Ukrainian cities against this form of attack"
AIUI it is fairly hard to provide such a shield. Which is why this development is quite worrying to many western militaries.
The drones are slow moving, not stealth and are having to traverse quite a bit of Ukrainian held territory to reach the key cities. It doesn’t sound technically difficult to me, just a matter of providing the means.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
They can be helped on the electricity side from the EU - remember they are now connected to the EU grid. We could also supply them with the temporary generators which are now often used when the main supply goes down either for planned maintenance or in an emergency.
Either way these attacks won't make Ukraine surrender. Quite the opposite, they will simply harden Ukrainian resolve. They are as pointless as Hitler's V1s and V2s were.
2400 moderate sized model airplanes doesn't win a war.
These Iranian drones are not “model airplanes”
“The British military describes the Shahed-136’s 80-pound payload as small. Still, its precision targeting gives it a potentially devastating effect. A Ukrainian officer who saw the drone used in combat said it could target a self-propelled howitzer near where the gunpowder was stored, causing a greater explosion than its warhead alone would achieve.”
More importantly, they are so cheap they can be used in suicidal SWARMS. That’s when they become seriously dangerous to Ukraine - and its infrastructure
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
They can be helped on the electricity side from the EU - remember they are now connected to the EU grid. We could also supply them with the temporary generators which are now often used when the main supply goes down either for planned maintenance or in an emergency.
Either way these attacks won't make Ukraine surrender. Quite the opposite, they will simply harden Ukrainian resolve. They are as pointless as Hitler's V1s and V2s were.
Imagining the new war will be just like the last war is a perennial mistake. You are doing it
You continue to overestimate both the fragility of the Ukrainian power system and the effectiveness of these drones.
I imagine the Ukrainians are going to have a pretty horrible winter. There will be frequent power cuts. The war is coming again to Kyiv and Lviv.
But don't forget that most normal businesses and factories will have been forced to close by the war already. This means that electricity is demand is likely well down on where it was a year ago.
Coal fired power stations are also not complicated things: pipes can be replaced, boilers patched and repaired. And distributed generation - i.e. a few Aggreko containers - can power city blocks with relative ease (as well as being very hard to detect and destroy).
Then there's the other side of the equation: 2,400 drones sounds like a lot. But don't forget that they only have the oomph of a very small bomb. The total flying weight of the drones (including explosives) is 200 kilograms (440 pounds). If we - generously - assume that the amount of explosive it carries is half that, we get to a 220 pound bomb. An F16's standard bomb (of which it will carry several) is 2,000 pounds.
And let's not forget that not all of those drones are going to reach their targets: some will get shot down, some malfunction, some get lost, and some will simply miss at the end. And there's no shortage of countermeasures that the Ukrainians can take: the easiest of which is simply shining laser pointers on the drones, blinding the camera, and meaning operators will no longer be able to pinpoint exactly what gets hit.
The payload is much less than that - more like 40-80 pounds. They are not at all impressive if you see them as traditional bombs. But if you see them as a new form of air warfare - swarming with suicidal precision on to known targets - they are a lot scarier
I don’t type this with pleasure. But there are an awful lot of PB-ers who don’t want to hear ANYTHING negative/depressing about the war and only want to hear endless stories of Ukrainian brilliance and bravery and squalidly pathetic Russian defeat, and how that means Ukraine obviously wins and then Putin magically disappears
Sadly, reality isn’t like that. Putin still has military options and he can still win. It won’t be easy for him - indeed it will go bloody and difficult - but it is possible
Are you the Adult In The Room on this one then?
I fear I am
It’s perfectly possible to put a shield in place to safeguard Ukrainian cities against this form of attack but Biden and Israel have dragged their feet. Equally the US (or Israel) could destroy the Iranian drone factories but it’s seen as a bit provocative.
The whole war now is just about how much pain America decides is an acceptable level for Ukraine to bear but still win, or conversely how much humiliation can be rained on Russia without it being seen as too much of an escalation. For my money, we can swing quite a bit further in Ukraine’s favour without risk but Biden is a cautious old peanut.
"It’s perfectly possible to put a shield in place to safeguard Ukrainian cities against this form of attack"
AIUI it is fairly hard to provide such a shield. Which is why this development is quite worrying to many western militaries.
A 1950's AA gun system will have no problem against simple drones.
It shouldn't be underestimated how big an impact the fighter jet crashing into a residential building is having on Russian morale. It's still dominating their news coverage, and in some ways is a bigger story than the Kerch bridge being blown up.
hearing that rebel Tories have been asking Labour MPs to help them overthrow Liz Truss
Conservative backbenchers are growing increasingly frustrated with the PM's leadership, but currently lack any mechanisms to remove her
One Labour MP tells me: "Tories are speaking to us saying 'this is a complete nightmare and there is no way out'. We are being asked 'can't you do something about her?'"
A housing crash does not help buyers much if it is more difficult for them to get a mortgage, as it would be
If this hypothetical buyer has saved a deposit, it becomes relatively bigger with every fall in prices, so not only do they need to borrow a smaller amount of money, but their loan-to-value ratio also gets better. It's absolutely perverse to argue that people can't benefit from paying less for something.
Indeed, we had this discussion with @Richard_Nabavi when he falsely claimed the 1990s was a bad time to be a First Time Buyer following the house price falls, when the facts and figures show the polar opposite - we had record FTBs in the early to mid 90s and its been falling ever since.
Increasing house prices aids those who are on the ladder already, to the harm of those who aren't. Falling house prices aids those who aren't, to the harm of those who are. For those who scream til they're blue in the face about the harms of negative equity - there's groups losing out no matter what, there is no "victimless" option here.
Rising house prices, as @rcs1000 has said before, allows existing home owners to leverage the increase in their equity to enable them to get a bigger home when they move. Or it allows existing home owners to leverage the increase in their equity to enable them to buy a second home without moving.
Falling house prices wipes out equity from those already on the housing ladder, but those who aren't on the ladder have no equity to lose. Instead their deposit they're saving up becomes a higher share of the deposit and means a better LTV value and also they're not competing against those buying second etc homes by leveraging the house price changes.
To be precise falling house prices don’t help FTB (risk to banks means they are more conservative on lending).
The best time to be a FTB is when prices have fallen, have stabilised, and when banks are just beginning to recover their nerves.
But that’s really a detail around your basic thesis - lower prices clearly benefit first time buyers all other things being equal
NI will face an election before Christmas, unless power sharing is restored in the next 10 days, the government has confirmed - Chris Heaton Harris hinted at election on 8th or 15 December. Parties don't expect Stormont to be back by 28 Oct so new election next step by law https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1582381074566369280
Are we still in the DUP refusing to play ball phase? I.e. they refuse to serve if Michelle O’Neill is first minister (even though she has, erm, been elected as such)
Yes although the reason has a lot more to do with Bozo's Brexit deal which means checks on all goods coming from the UK while goods coming via Ireland are free flowing.
Bollocks -the DUP don't want Sinn Fein to have the first minister position - every thing is an excuse - if the Brexit issue was sorted they would find another reason not to cooperate.
Stop their pay if they are not sitting. Dismiss them from public service if they wilfully take unauthorised absence and bar them from ever standing again.
They would be back at work in a heartbeat.
The DUP are a bunch of extremist Protestant fascists. Bar them from office. Appoint Alliance as the official opposition with Deputy First Minister. Totally sideline the DUP whilst indicating to DUP voters that they have the choice of voting UUP or being ignored and powerless.
Not sure you quite understand how this democracy lark works. I mean I share your utter disdain for the DUP but for a start banning them from office is in breach of the Good Friday Agreement which everyone sems to believe is sacrosanct.
Though it would be interesting to see if those who have sworn by the GFA over the arguments regarding Brexit - including the USA - were willing to do the same if it was being breached to sideline the main Unionist party.
The only way this gets resolved is for unionists to realise that the DUP are not acting in their best interests and support the UUP instead.
hearing that rebel Tories have been asking Labour MPs to help them overthrow Liz Truss
Conservative backbenchers are growing increasingly frustrated with the PM's leadership, but currently lack any mechanisms to remove her
One Labour MP tells me: "Tories are speaking to us saying 'this is a complete nightmare and there is no way out'. We are being asked 'can't you do something about her?'"
Because they don't actually want to win it. It leads to two bad things from their partisan point of view - either she gets replaced by someone better, or they get an immediate election that they aren't ready for.
hearing that rebel Tories have been asking Labour MPs to help them overthrow Liz Truss
Conservative backbenchers are growing increasingly frustrated with the PM's leadership, but currently lack any mechanisms to remove her
One Labour MP tells me: "Tories are speaking to us saying 'this is a complete nightmare and there is no way out'. We are being asked 'can't you do something about her?'"
hearing that rebel Tories have been asking Labour MPs to help them overthrow Liz Truss
Conservative backbenchers are growing increasingly frustrated with the PM's leadership, but currently lack any mechanisms to remove her
One Labour MP tells me: "Tories are speaking to us saying 'this is a complete nightmare and there is no way out'. We are being asked 'can't you do something about her?'"
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
2400 drones. If they send ~100/day that's 24 days. Of those, 80%+ are shot down (and that number will rise as more air defence comes online)
This sounds more like a harassing measure, unless they can significantly improve penetration, and/or significantly improve targeting.
OR they source a constant new supply. How difficult is this shit?
Too difficult for PB, it seems
It is possible that they will - but I wouldn't count on that. I imagine there are some people giving considerable thought to covert means by which that can be prevented.
I'm by no means saying that you are wrong, just that RU has surprised us on the downside where these logistical matters have been concerned, thus far.
I get the horrible feeling we are seeing a formidable new axis emerging, which perceives us as the enemy and is quite self sufficient in technology basically as good as ours
The main players are Russia, China and Iran. Plus their satellites. India is damagingly neutral
Russia’s military is quite shit but with China supplying weapons and parts via Iran (I bet that this is happening) that makes a Eurasian chain of materiel we cannot easily interdict
And that’s how Russia might win in Ukraine unless we are willing to go full nuclear confrontation over Lviv
Xi’s speech to the CCP was bristling with hostility and intent. They will move on Taiwan within a few years, for sure
In the short term, Russia is complaining about the poor quality of Chinese components it has been forced to buy on the grey market.
Chips are made at a fab (fabrication) plant, and they are routinely 'binned' (**) when they come off the wafer. The 8-core 4GHz Intel chip you buy for $300 (*) might be off exactly the same wafer as a 6-core 3.5GHz chip you buy for $200; it is just that the latter has been tested (binned) on-wafer and found to be not as good.
So you get various bins of chips, based on their performance characteristics. It sounds like the Chinese are sending Russia the ones that never made it into bins and have been swept off the floor by a bored fab tech.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
They can be helped on the electricity side from the EU - remember they are now connected to the EU grid. We could also supply them with the temporary generators which are now often used when the main supply goes down either for planned maintenance or in an emergency.
Either way these attacks won't make Ukraine surrender. Quite the opposite, they will simply harden Ukrainian resolve. They are as pointless as Hitler's V1s and V2s were.
Imagining the new war will be just like the last war is a perennial mistake. You are doing it
You continue to overestimate both the fragility of the Ukrainian power system and the effectiveness of these drones.
I imagine the Ukrainians are going to have a pretty horrible winter. There will be frequent power cuts. The war is coming again to Kyiv and Lviv.
But don't forget that most normal businesses and factories will have been forced to close by the war already. This means that electricity is demand is likely well down on where it was a year ago.
Coal fired power stations are also not complicated things: pipes can be replaced, boilers patched and repaired. And distributed generation - i.e. a few Aggreko containers - can power city blocks with relative ease (as well as being very hard to detect and destroy).
Then there's the other side of the equation: 2,400 drones sounds like a lot. But don't forget that they only have the oomph of a very small bomb. The total flying weight of the drones (including explosives) is 200 kilograms (440 pounds). If we - generously - assume that the amount of explosive it carries is half that, we get to a 220 pound bomb. An F16's standard bomb (of which it will carry several) is 2,000 pounds.
And let's not forget that not all of those drones are going to reach their targets: some will get shot down, some malfunction, some get lost, and some will simply miss at the end. And there's no shortage of countermeasures that the Ukrainians can take: the easiest of which is simply shining laser pointers on the drones, blinding the camera, and meaning operators will no longer be able to pinpoint exactly what gets hit.
The payload is much less than that - more like 40-80 pounds. They are not at all impressive if you see them as traditional bombs. But if you see them as a new form of air warfare - swarming with suicidal precision on to known targets - they are a lot scarier
I don’t type this with pleasure. But there are an awful lot of PB-ers who don’t want to hear ANYTHING negative/depressing about the war and only want to hear endless stories of Ukrainian brilliance and bravery and squalidly pathetic Russian defeat, and how that means Ukraine obviously wins and then Putin magically disappears
Sadly, reality isn’t like that. Putin still has military options and he can still win. It won’t be easy for him - indeed it will go bloody and difficult - but it is possible
Are you the Adult In The Room on this one then?
I fear I am
It’s perfectly possible to put a shield in place to safeguard Ukrainian cities against this form of attack but Biden and Israel have dragged their feet. Equally the US (or Israel) could destroy the Iranian drone factories but it’s seen as a bit provocative.
The whole war now is just about how much pain America decides is an acceptable level for Ukraine to bear but still win, or conversely how much humiliation can be rained on Russia without it being seen as too much of an escalation. For my money, we can swing quite a bit further in Ukraine’s favour without risk but Biden is a cautious old peanut.
"It’s perfectly possible to put a shield in place to safeguard Ukrainian cities against this form of attack"
AIUI it is fairly hard to provide such a shield. Which is why this development is quite worrying to many western militaries.
The drones are slow moving, not stealth and are having to traverse quite a bit of Ukrainian held territory to reach the key cities. It doesn’t sound technically difficult to me, just a matter of providing the means.
Does anyone have a number. I think the one I have seen is that they are shooting down 60-80%.
That's before the new systems are in place.
Ua needs some of these - Tehran would be well within range .
hearing that rebel Tories have been asking Labour MPs to help them overthrow Liz Truss
Conservative backbenchers are growing increasingly frustrated with the PM's leadership, but currently lack any mechanisms to remove her
One Labour MP tells me: "Tories are speaking to us saying 'this is a complete nightmare and there is no way out'. We are being asked 'can't you do something about her?'"
A housing crash does not help buyers much if it is more difficult for them to get a mortgage, as it would be
If this hypothetical buyer has saved a deposit, it becomes relatively bigger with every fall in prices, so not only do they need to borrow a smaller amount of money, but their loan-to-value ratio also gets better. It's absolutely perverse to argue that people can't benefit from paying less for something.
Indeed, we had this discussion with @Richard_Nabavi when he falsely claimed the 1990s was a bad time to be a First Time Buyer following the house price falls, when the facts and figures show the polar opposite - we had record FTBs in the early to mid 90s and its been falling ever since.
Increasing house prices aids those who are on the ladder already, to the harm of those who aren't. Falling house prices aids those who aren't, to the harm of those who are. For those who scream til they're blue in the face about the harms of negative equity - there's groups losing out no matter what, there is no "victimless" option here.
Rising house prices, as @rcs1000 has said before, allows existing home owners to leverage the increase in their equity to enable them to get a bigger home when they move. Or it allows existing home owners to leverage the increase in their equity to enable them to buy a second home without moving.
Falling house prices wipes out equity from those already on the housing ladder, but those who aren't on the ladder have no equity to lose. Instead their deposit they're saving up becomes a higher share of the deposit and means a better LTV value and also they're not competing against those buying second etc homes by leveraging the house price changes.
To be precise falling house prices don’t help FTB (risk to banks means they are more conservative on lending).
The best time to be a FTB is when prices have fallen, have stabilised, and when banks are just beginning to recover their nerves.
But that’s really a detail around your basic thesis - lower prices clearly benefit first time buyers all other things being equal
Risk to banks means they're more conservative on lending, but they're more conservative in a manner that aids first time buyers.
If you're using your savings to buy a home, and house prices fall, the LTV ratio of your savings has improved. If you're using your equity in your home or homes to buy a home, and house prices fall, the LTV ratio of your equity has worsened.
Even in house price falls, the housing market doesn't seize up completely. During such periods there are typically fewer house sales, but those house sales are dominated more by first time buyers who now find their savings are sufficient to buy a home, rather than existing home owners whose equity isn't there at the moment.
hearing that rebel Tories have been asking Labour MPs to help them overthrow Liz Truss
Conservative backbenchers are growing increasingly frustrated with the PM's leadership, but currently lack any mechanisms to remove her
One Labour MP tells me: "Tories are speaking to us saying 'this is a complete nightmare and there is no way out'. We are being asked 'can't you do something about her?'"
Extraordinary poll from @InstituteGC. Strong majority think Brexit has damaged economy. Tiny number believe we should keep things as they are. More *Leave* voters support rejoin or Single Market than status quo. 70:30 majority overall for closer relationship with EU. https://twitter.com/SteveMorris123/status/1582372738152665088/photo/1
Ah, I see what he did there. He combined the two most extreme options on one side and compared that with one option - not the most extreme one - on the other side.
Leave voters: Rejoin 9, single market or rejoin 22; fewer ties than now 13, status quo or fewer ties than now 23.
One very interesting thing on that chart is that 2016 non voters' responses are most similar to the overall figure - not to 2016 Remain voters as you zealots would have us believe.
And only 45% of 2016 Remain voters favour rejoining within 10-15 years. And as usual that will be inflated by people who wrongly think rejoining on the previous terms could be possible.
Oh come on. You should know by now that Scott only reposts this stuff. He lacks the ability to actually understand, let alone analyse it. It is all about the headline, nothing more. It is why he gets caught out by his own postings so often.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
They can be helped on the electricity side from the EU - remember they are now connected to the EU grid. We could also supply them with the temporary generators which are now often used when the main supply goes down either for planned maintenance or in an emergency.
Either way these attacks won't make Ukraine surrender. Quite the opposite, they will simply harden Ukrainian resolve. They are as pointless as Hitler's V1s and V2s were.
Imagining the new war will be just like the last war is a perennial mistake. You are doing it
You continue to overestimate both the fragility of the Ukrainian power system and the effectiveness of these drones.
I imagine the Ukrainians are going to have a pretty horrible winter. There will be frequent power cuts. The war is coming again to Kyiv and Lviv.
But don't forget that most normal businesses and factories will have been forced to close by the war already. This means that electricity is demand is likely well down on where it was a year ago.
Coal fired power stations are also not complicated things: pipes can be replaced, boilers patched and repaired. And distributed generation - i.e. a few Aggreko containers - can power city blocks with relative ease (as well as being very hard to detect and destroy).
Then there's the other side of the equation: 2,400 drones sounds like a lot. But don't forget that they only have the oomph of a very small bomb. The total flying weight of the drones (including explosives) is 200 kilograms (440 pounds). If we - generously - assume that the amount of explosive it carries is half that, we get to a 220 pound bomb. An F16's standard bomb (of which it will carry several) is 2,000 pounds.
And let's not forget that not all of those drones are going to reach their targets: some will get shot down, some malfunction, some get lost, and some will simply miss at the end. And there's no shortage of countermeasures that the Ukrainians can take: the easiest of which is simply shining laser pointers on the drones, blinding the camera, and meaning operators will no longer be able to pinpoint exactly what gets hit.
The payload is much less than that - more like 40-80 pounds. They are not at all impressive if you see them as traditional bombs. But if you see them as a new form of air warfare - swarming with suicidal precision on to known targets - they are a lot scarier
I don’t type this with pleasure. But there are an awful lot of PB-ers who don’t want to hear ANYTHING negative/depressing about the war and only want to hear endless stories of Ukrainian brilliance and bravery and squalidly pathetic Russian defeat, and how that means Ukraine obviously wins and then Putin magically disappears
Sadly, reality isn’t like that. Putin still has military options and he can still win. It won’t be easy for him - indeed it will go bloody and difficult - but it is possible
Are you the Adult In The Room on this one then?
I fear I am
It’s perfectly possible to put a shield in place to safeguard Ukrainian cities against this form of attack but Biden and Israel have dragged their feet. Equally the US (or Israel) could destroy the Iranian drone factories but it’s seen as a bit provocative.
The whole war now is just about how much pain America decides is an acceptable level for Ukraine to bear but still win, or conversely how much humiliation can be rained on Russia without it being seen as too much of an escalation. For my money, we can swing quite a bit further in Ukraine’s favour without risk but Biden is a cautious old peanut.
"It’s perfectly possible to put a shield in place to safeguard Ukrainian cities against this form of attack"
AIUI it is fairly hard to provide such a shield. Which is why this development is quite worrying to many western militaries.
A 1950's AA gun system will have no problem against simple drones.
Gepard etc.
The issue is having lots of them to do this.
Yes. But there's another problem: the range of such gun systems is limited - I think the Gepard is about 5km. You need a lot of systems to cover every potential target - and more if a swarm comes in.
In comparison, an SA-300 missile system can cover up to 150km.
hearing that rebel Tories have been asking Labour MPs to help them overthrow Liz Truss
Conservative backbenchers are growing increasingly frustrated with the PM's leadership, but currently lack any mechanisms to remove her
One Labour MP tells me: "Tories are speaking to us saying 'this is a complete nightmare and there is no way out'. We are being asked 'can't you do something about her?'"
Normally I'd dismiss this as shit stirring from Labour but I can actually believe this is happening.
Me too, but again, for gods sake Tory MPs. You have the power. Get your representations in to Brady and the 1922, get your alternative PM lined up and agreed and get yourself on record as being opposed to Truss’ premiership. If there’s enough of you sheer political reality will bite and she will have to go. So stop moaning to Labour about it, grow a pair and sort it out.
Honestly if I have to hear them whinging on for week upon week again (just like in the Boris situation) I’ll be driven to distraction. DO IT you fools.
Because they don't actually want to win it. It leads to two bad things from their partisan point of view - either she gets replaced by someone better, or they get an immediate election that they aren't ready for.
But there will come a point when people are asking them why they aren't doing it?
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
2400 drones. If they send ~100/day that's 24 days. Of those, 80%+ are shot down (and that number will rise as more air defence comes online)
This sounds more like a harassing measure, unless they can significantly improve penetration, and/or significantly improve targeting.
OR they source a constant new supply. How difficult is this shit?
Too difficult for PB, it seems
It is possible that they will - but I wouldn't count on that. I imagine there are some people giving considerable thought to covert means by which that can be prevented.
I'm by no means saying that you are wrong, just that RU has surprised us on the downside where these logistical matters have been concerned, thus far.
I get the horrible feeling we are seeing a formidable new axis emerging, which perceives us as the enemy and is quite self sufficient in technology basically as good as ours
The main players are Russia, China and Iran. Plus their satellites. India is damagingly neutral
Russia’s military is quite shit but with China supplying weapons and parts via Iran (I bet that this is happening) that makes a Eurasian chain of materiel we cannot easily interdict
And that’s how Russia might win in Ukraine unless we are willing to go full nuclear confrontation over Lviv
Xi’s speech to the CCP was bristling with hostility and intent. They will move on Taiwan within a few years, for sure
Leon, can you define what you mean by 'win' when you talk about Russia 'winning' ?
Sure. I’ve done it many times before but happy to do it again
Russia wins if it militarily takes Kyiv, deposes Zelensky, instals a friendlier Kyiv regime, gets a ceasefire in all Ukraine and “negotiations” about the annexed territories
Something like that?
In the long run Russia cannot win. It has ensured that 40 million Ukrainians - right on the Russian border - will hate Russia forever. For generations. Even if it “wins” Moscow has guaranteed half a century of violence and insurrection - aimed at Russia
The war was a colossal blunder by Putin. And no one in the west will ever buy his energy consistently. In economic terms Russia will probably become a Chinese and then Indian vassal. And the oligarchs will never again get to play in London and the Med
Even if Russia was to automagically get control over all Ukraine tonight, it won't be a 'win' for them, as long as sanctions remain. Their military has been embarrassed (and military sales are massively important to their economy and soft power), and their economy is hurting. No-one will trust them as an energy provider in the future, and although they will sell energy, no-one will rely on them. And who would want Russian weapon systems that are fit only for a turret-tossing competition?
I cannot see a way Russia ends up richer and more powerful than it was before the war. And that's only a lose for them.
I think you are vehemently agreeing, aren't you?
Short term "win" == "automatically get control"
Long term lose == economic and political vassal.
I don't define the short-term situation as being a 'win' if the long-term situation is such a heavy 'lose'.
hearing that rebel Tories have been asking Labour MPs to help them overthrow Liz Truss
Conservative backbenchers are growing increasingly frustrated with the PM's leadership, but currently lack any mechanisms to remove her
One Labour MP tells me: "Tories are speaking to us saying 'this is a complete nightmare and there is no way out'. We are being asked 'can't you do something about her?'"
The question remains the one I asked @HYUFD earlier on and then the Telegraph asked rhetorically afterwards.
What exactly do you believe in if you are a Tory these days.
Your party has performed a 180 degree change in policy so what kind of political beliefs do you hold if you supported them after the mini-budget and you support them now.
Fiscal responsibility again, not pure libertarianism, the monarchy, choice, maintaining Brexit etc
'People could die because of Thérèse Coffey’s “ultra-libertarian ideological” reluctance to crack down on smoking and obesity, a Conservative ex-health minister has warned.
The strongly worded criticism of the health secretary came from Dr Dan Poulter, a Tory MP and NHS doctor who served as a health minister in the coalition government from 2012 to 2015.
Poulter claims Coffey’s “hostility to what the extreme right call ‘nanny statism’” is stopping her from taking firm action against the “major killers” of tobacco and bad diet.
[...]
The government’s widely anticipated scrapping of measures to curb obesity such as the sugar tax and ditching of the tobacco control plan and health inequalities white paper – both of which previous health ministers had promised to publish – have led Poulter to brand Coffey’s stance “deeply alarming”'
Coffey wants to present herself as a role model for the health of the nation.
Worst poster girl ever. Just need her in a short tennis dress hitching it up over one buttock.
Ewwwwwwww.
Shame on you for sharing the degenerate thoughts of your mind.
hearing that rebel Tories have been asking Labour MPs to help them overthrow Liz Truss
Conservative backbenchers are growing increasingly frustrated with the PM's leadership, but currently lack any mechanisms to remove her
One Labour MP tells me: "Tories are speaking to us saying 'this is a complete nightmare and there is no way out'. We are being asked 'can't you do something about her?'"
Indeed, we had this discussion with @Richard_Nabavi when he falsely claimed the 1990s was a bad time to be a First Time Buyer following the house price falls, when the facts and figures show the polar opposite - we had record FTBs in the early to mid 90s and its been falling ever since. [snip]
Utter poppycock. I didn't 'falsely claim' anything of the sort. I correctly pointed out that the period of sharp price falls (circa 1989-1991) was a bad time to be first time buyer, and you and @williamglenn then started quoting figures from 1995/6, which was exactly when the market eventually started to recover. Please don't lie about what I said.
hearing that rebel Tories have been asking Labour MPs to help them overthrow Liz Truss
Conservative backbenchers are growing increasingly frustrated with the PM's leadership, but currently lack any mechanisms to remove her
One Labour MP tells me: "Tories are speaking to us saying 'this is a complete nightmare and there is no way out'. We are being asked 'can't you do something about her?'"
Otherwise idiotic backbenchers and the SNP would be calling VONCs every day which would paralyse the government and parliament.
*The PM can also call for a vote of confidence.
But if enough Tories want her gone, they can get Starmer to call for the VoNC and then either abstain or vote against the govt. Admittedly they would then have to face the electorate...
Because they don't actually want to win it. It leads to two bad things from their partisan point of view - either she gets replaced by someone better, or they get an immediate election that they aren't ready for.
Why would you care you are not ready when you are 36 points ahead or whatever today's figure is?
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
They can be helped on the electricity side from the EU - remember they are now connected to the EU grid. We could also supply them with the temporary generators which are now often used when the main supply goes down either for planned maintenance or in an emergency.
Either way these attacks won't make Ukraine surrender. Quite the opposite, they will simply harden Ukrainian resolve. They are as pointless as Hitler's V1s and V2s were.
Imagining the new war will be just like the last war is a perennial mistake. You are doing it
You continue to overestimate both the fragility of the Ukrainian power system and the effectiveness of these drones.
I imagine the Ukrainians are going to have a pretty horrible winter. There will be frequent power cuts. The war is coming again to Kyiv and Lviv.
But don't forget that most normal businesses and factories will have been forced to close by the war already. This means that electricity is demand is likely well down on where it was a year ago.
Coal fired power stations are also not complicated things: pipes can be replaced, boilers patched and repaired. And distributed generation - i.e. a few Aggreko containers - can power city blocks with relative ease (as well as being very hard to detect and destroy).
Then there's the other side of the equation: 2,400 drones sounds like a lot. But don't forget that they only have the oomph of a very small bomb. The total flying weight of the drones (including explosives) is 200 kilograms (440 pounds). If we - generously - assume that the amount of explosive it carries is half that, we get to a 220 pound bomb. An F16's standard bomb (of which it will carry several) is 2,000 pounds.
And let's not forget that not all of those drones are going to reach their targets: some will get shot down, some malfunction, some get lost, and some will simply miss at the end. And there's no shortage of countermeasures that the Ukrainians can take: the easiest of which is simply shining laser pointers on the drones, blinding the camera, and meaning operators will no longer be able to pinpoint exactly what gets hit.
The payload is much less than that - more like 40-80 pounds. They are not at all impressive if you see them as traditional bombs. But if you see them as a new form of air warfare - swarming with suicidal precision on to known targets - they are a lot scarier
I don’t type this with pleasure. But there are an awful lot of PB-ers who don’t want to hear ANYTHING negative/depressing about the war and only want to hear endless stories of Ukrainian brilliance and bravery and squalidly pathetic Russian defeat, and how that means Ukraine obviously wins and then Putin magically disappears
Sadly, reality isn’t like that. Putin still has military options and he can still win. It won’t be easy for him - indeed it will go bloody and difficult - but it is possible
Are you the Adult In The Room on this one then?
I fear I am
It’s perfectly possible to put a shield in place to safeguard Ukrainian cities against this form of attack but Biden and Israel have dragged their feet. Equally the US (or Israel) could destroy the Iranian drone factories but it’s seen as a bit provocative.
The whole war now is just about how much pain America decides is an acceptable level for Ukraine to bear but still win, or conversely how much humiliation can be rained on Russia without it being seen as too much of an escalation. For my money, we can swing quite a bit further in Ukraine’s favour without risk but Biden is a cautious old peanut.
"It’s perfectly possible to put a shield in place to safeguard Ukrainian cities against this form of attack"
AIUI it is fairly hard to provide such a shield. Which is why this development is quite worrying to many western militaries.
The drones are slow moving, not stealth and are having to traverse quite a bit of Ukrainian held territory to reach the key cities. It doesn’t sound technically difficult to me, just a matter of providing the means.
As I said in another post, AA-guns have a very limited range when compared to missiles. You need an awful lot of them, and they make good targets (which is why highly-mobile ones are best). If we take the Gepard at a 5km range, you would need over 200 systems to 'cover' the >2,000 km front line. And they will not be able to be perfectly positioned.
And the west simply does not have enough suitable guns.
hearing that rebel Tories have been asking Labour MPs to help them overthrow Liz Truss
Conservative backbenchers are growing increasingly frustrated with the PM's leadership, but currently lack any mechanisms to remove her
One Labour MP tells me: "Tories are speaking to us saying 'this is a complete nightmare and there is no way out'. We are being asked 'can't you do something about her?'"
Otherwise idiotic backbenchers and the SNP would be calling VONCs every day which would paralyse the government and parliament.
*The PM can also call for a vote of confidence.
But if enough Tories want her gone, they can get Starmer to call for the VoNC and then either abstain or vote against the govt. Admittedly they would then have to face the electorate...
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
They can be helped on the electricity side from the EU - remember they are now connected to the EU grid. We could also supply them with the temporary generators which are now often used when the main supply goes down either for planned maintenance or in an emergency.
Either way these attacks won't make Ukraine surrender. Quite the opposite, they will simply harden Ukrainian resolve. They are as pointless as Hitler's V1s and V2s were.
Imagining the new war will be just like the last war is a perennial mistake. You are doing it
You continue to overestimate both the fragility of the Ukrainian power system and the effectiveness of these drones.
I imagine the Ukrainians are going to have a pretty horrible winter. There will be frequent power cuts. The war is coming again to Kyiv and Lviv.
But don't forget that most normal businesses and factories will have been forced to close by the war already. This means that electricity is demand is likely well down on where it was a year ago.
Coal fired power stations are also not complicated things: pipes can be replaced, boilers patched and repaired. And distributed generation - i.e. a few Aggreko containers - can power city blocks with relative ease (as well as being very hard to detect and destroy).
Then there's the other side of the equation: 2,400 drones sounds like a lot. But don't forget that they only have the oomph of a very small bomb. The total flying weight of the drones (including explosives) is 200 kilograms (440 pounds). If we - generously - assume that the amount of explosive it carries is half that, we get to a 220 pound bomb. An F16's standard bomb (of which it will carry several) is 2,000 pounds.
And let's not forget that not all of those drones are going to reach their targets: some will get shot down, some malfunction, some get lost, and some will simply miss at the end. And there's no shortage of countermeasures that the Ukrainians can take: the easiest of which is simply shining laser pointers on the drones, blinding the camera, and meaning operators will no longer be able to pinpoint exactly what gets hit.
The payload is much less than that - more like 40-80 pounds. They are not at all impressive if you see them as traditional bombs. But if you see them as a new form of air warfare - swarming with suicidal precision on to known targets - they are a lot scarier
I don’t type this with pleasure. But there are an awful lot of PB-ers who don’t want to hear ANYTHING negative/depressing about the war and only want to hear endless stories of Ukrainian brilliance and bravery and squalidly pathetic Russian defeat, and how that means Ukraine obviously wins and then Putin magically disappears
Sadly, reality isn’t like that. Putin still has military options and he can still win. It won’t be easy for him - indeed it will go bloody and difficult - but it is possible
Are you the Adult In The Room on this one then?
I fear I am
It’s perfectly possible to put a shield in place to safeguard Ukrainian cities against this form of attack but Biden and Israel have dragged their feet. Equally the US (or Israel) could destroy the Iranian drone factories but it’s seen as a bit provocative.
The whole war now is just about how much pain America decides is an acceptable level for Ukraine to bear but still win, or conversely how much humiliation can be rained on Russia without it being seen as too much of an escalation. For my money, we can swing quite a bit further in Ukraine’s favour without risk but Biden is a cautious old peanut.
"It’s perfectly possible to put a shield in place to safeguard Ukrainian cities against this form of attack"
AIUI it is fairly hard to provide such a shield. Which is why this development is quite worrying to many western militaries.
A 1950's AA gun system will have no problem against simple drones.
Gepard etc.
The issue is having lots of them to do this.
Yes. But there's another problem: the range of such gun systems is limited - I think the Gepard is about 5km. You need a lot of systems to cover every potential target - and more if a swarm comes in.
In comparison, an SA-300 missile system can cover up to 150km.
AA guns are really only of use protecting relatively small areas - a couple of decent systems would defend a power station from the Iranian drones with relative ease. That's something probably being looked at now.
Cities would need something like Iron Dome to provide a complete defence - which is neither available nor economically possible anytime soon for a country with as many population centres as Ukraine.
But the current drones are extremely slow, and a fair percentage can be shot down with what Ukraine already has.
A housing crash does not help buyers much if it is more difficult for them to get a mortgage, as it would be
If this hypothetical buyer has saved a deposit, it becomes relatively bigger with every fall in prices, so not only do they need to borrow a smaller amount of money, but their loan-to-value ratio also gets better. It's absolutely perverse to argue that people can't benefit from paying less for something.
Indeed, we had this discussion with @Richard_Nabavi when he falsely claimed the 1990s was a bad time to be a First Time Buyer following the house price falls, when the facts and figures show the polar opposite - we had record FTBs in the early to mid 90s and its been falling ever since.
Increasing house prices aids those who are on the ladder already, to the harm of those who aren't. Falling house prices aids those who aren't, to the harm of those who are. For those who scream til they're blue in the face about the harms of negative equity - there's groups losing out no matter what, there is no "victimless" option here.
Rising house prices, as @rcs1000 has said before, allows existing home owners to leverage the increase in their equity to enable them to get a bigger home when they move. Or it allows existing home owners to leverage the increase in their equity to enable them to buy a second home without moving.
Falling house prices wipes out equity from those already on the housing ladder, but those who aren't on the ladder have no equity to lose. Instead their deposit they're saving up becomes a higher share of the deposit and means a better LTV value and also they're not competing against those buying second etc homes by leveraging the house price changes.
To be precise falling house prices don’t help FTB (risk to banks means they are more conservative on lending).
The best time to be a FTB is when prices have fallen, have stabilised, and when banks are just beginning to recover their nerves.
But that’s really a detail around your basic thesis - lower prices clearly benefit first time buyers all other things being equal
The best time to be an FTB was 1995.
A period of high inflation had reduced price-to-incomes to low levels. While the high interest rates of the early 90s had decimated the buy-to-let sector, and had resulted in banks unwilling to lend to landlords, high rental yields (relative to purchase prices) and many landlords having left the market.
Result: if you bought a house or apartment in London 27 years ago you will probably have seen a 10x gain.
hearing that rebel Tories have been asking Labour MPs to help them overthrow Liz Truss
Conservative backbenchers are growing increasingly frustrated with the PM's leadership, but currently lack any mechanisms to remove her
One Labour MP tells me: "Tories are speaking to us saying 'this is a complete nightmare and there is no way out'. We are being asked 'can't you do something about her?'"
hearing that rebel Tories have been asking Labour MPs to help them overthrow Liz Truss
Conservative backbenchers are growing increasingly frustrated with the PM's leadership, but currently lack any mechanisms to remove her
One Labour MP tells me: "Tories are speaking to us saying 'this is a complete nightmare and there is no way out'. We are being asked 'can't you do something about her?'"
From what I remember from when Corbyn tried and failed to call a VONC, the only way that a VONC takes precedence over government business is if the LOTO puts down the motion in the exact form of words.
Extraordinary poll from @InstituteGC. Strong majority think Brexit has damaged economy. Tiny number believe we should keep things as they are. More *Leave* voters support rejoin or Single Market than status quo. 70:30 majority overall for closer relationship with EU. https://twitter.com/SteveMorris123/status/1582372738152665088/photo/1
Ah, I see what he did there. He combined the two most extreme options on one side and compared that with one option - not the most extreme one - on the other side.
Leave voters: Rejoin 9, single market or rejoin 22; fewer ties than now 13, status quo or fewer ties than now 23.
One very interesting thing on that chart is that 2016 non voters' responses are most similar to the overall figure - not to 2016 Remain voters as you zealots would have us believe.
And only 45% of 2016 Remain voters favour rejoining within 10-15 years. And as usual that will be inflated by people who wrongly think rejoining on the previous terms could be possible.
Oh come on. You should know by now that Scott only reposts this stuff. He lacks the ability to actually understand, let alone analyse it. It is all about the headline, nothing more. It is why he gets caught out by his own postings so often.
Oh, yeah. But there may be people reading the comments who don't bother to click the link.
A housing crash does not help buyers much if it is more difficult for them to get a mortgage, as it would be
If this hypothetical buyer has saved a deposit, it becomes relatively bigger with every fall in prices, so not only do they need to borrow a smaller amount of money, but their loan-to-value ratio also gets better. It's absolutely perverse to argue that people can't benefit from paying less for something.
Indeed, we had this discussion with @Richard_Nabavi when he falsely claimed the 1990s was a bad time to be a First Time Buyer following the house price falls, when the facts and figures show the polar opposite - we had record FTBs in the early to mid 90s and its been falling ever since.
Increasing house prices aids those who are on the ladder already, to the harm of those who aren't. Falling house prices aids those who aren't, to the harm of those who are. For those who scream til they're blue in the face about the harms of negative equity - there's groups losing out no matter what, there is no "victimless" option here.
Rising house prices, as @rcs1000 has said before, allows existing home owners to leverage the increase in their equity to enable them to get a bigger home when they move. Or it allows existing home owners to leverage the increase in their equity to enable them to buy a second home without moving.
Falling house prices wipes out equity from those already on the housing ladder, but those who aren't on the ladder have no equity to lose. Instead their deposit they're saving up becomes a higher share of the deposit and means a better LTV value and also they're not competing against those buying second etc homes by leveraging the house price changes.
To be precise falling house prices don’t help FTB (risk to banks means they are more conservative on lending).
The best time to be a FTB is when prices have fallen, have stabilised, and when banks are just beginning to recover their nerves.
But that’s really a detail around your basic thesis - lower prices clearly benefit first time buyers all other things being equal
The best time to be an FTB was 1995.
A period of high inflation had reduced price-to-incomes to low levels. While the high interest rates of the early 90s had decimated the buy-to-let sector, and had resulted in banks unwilling to lend to landlords, high rental yields (relative to purchase prices) and many landlords having left the market.
Result: if you bought a house or apartment in London 27 years ago you will probably have seen a 10x gain.
Ken Clarke was a better Chancellor than either Gordon Brown or George Osborne. I doubt he would have implemented a monetary policy framework that ignored asset bubbles and then made it government policy to keep them inflated forever.
Kitty Donaldson @kitty_donaldson NEW: The Conservatives caved in and allowed a free vote on abortion clinic buffer zones, a fresh sign that whips don’t want to pick fights they can’t win with mutinous backbenchers
I guess everyone on here except HUYFD will be happy with this (it's an amendment that introduces the buffer zones btw).
No, I'm not happy. Conservatives used to believe in free speech.
Indeed, we had this discussion with @Richard_Nabavi when he falsely claimed the 1990s was a bad time to be a First Time Buyer following the house price falls, when the facts and figures show the polar opposite - we had record FTBs in the early to mid 90s and its been falling ever since. [snip]
Utter poppycock. I didn't 'falsely claim' anything of the sort. I correctly pointed out that the period of sharp price falls (circa 1989-1991) was a bad time to be first time buyer, and you and @williamglenn then started quoting figures from 1995/6, which was exactly when the market eventually started to recover. Please don't lie about what I said.
You specifically said the "mid 1990s", if I recall correctly?
Isn't Truss roughly poundshop Eden in a dress, from the colourful private life to the fundamental not-up-to-it-ness?
And Johnson is more like Supermac than either would like to admit.
So who is going to be the Alec Douglas Home of our times?
Douglas-Home was the last PM to be PM from the House of Lords before renouncing his title, so perhaps Lord Frost could be his thuggish Poundshop persona
It is quite interesting that Douglas-Home was never the Hume Secretary
Because they don't actually want to win it. It leads to two bad things from their partisan point of view - either she gets replaced by someone better, or they get an immediate election that they aren't ready for.
Why would you care you are not ready when you are 36 points ahead or whatever today's figure is?
Because, if you're sensible, you see it as a mirage(*). I guess the unions are improving Labour's financial position from its Corbyn nadir, but IIRC they were pretty wiped out by having to fight three general elections in four years.
(*) It may not be, but it's prudent to treat it as such.
Comments
Increasing house prices aids those who are on the ladder already, to the harm of those who aren't. Falling house prices aids those who aren't, to the harm of those who are. For those who scream til they're blue in the face about the harms of negative equity - there's groups losing out no matter what, there is no "victimless" option here.
Rising house prices, as @rcs1000 has said before, allows existing home owners to leverage the increase in their equity to enable them to get a bigger home when they move. Or it allows existing home owners to leverage the increase in their equity to enable them to buy a second home without moving.
Falling house prices wipes out equity from those already on the housing ladder, but those who aren't on the ladder have no equity to lose. Instead their deposit they're saving up becomes a higher share of the deposit and means a better LTV value and also they're not competing against those buying second etc homes by leveraging the house price changes.
The main players are Russia, China and Iran. Plus their satellites. India is damagingly neutral
Russia’s military is quite shit but with China supplying weapons and parts via Iran (I bet that this is happening) that makes a Eurasian chain of materiel we cannot easily interdict
And that’s how Russia might win in Ukraine unless we are willing to go full nuclear confrontation over Lviv
Xi’s speech to the CCP was bristling with hostility and intent. They will move on Taiwan within a few years, for sure
This could really hurt them, given their heavy reliance on railways for transport.
https://www.railfreight.com/business/2022/09/01/russian-rail-sector-moves-towards-recession-this-year/
This is very much "For the want of a nail..." territory. Lack of a small and little-considered component causes chaos.
Attlee 60%
Churchill 48%
Eden 46%
Macmillan 53%
Douglas-Home 44%
Wilson I 70%
Heath 58%
Wilson II 55%
Callaghan 75%
Thatcher 79%
Major 86%
Blair 69%
Brown 78%
Cameron 69%
May 86%
Johnson 81% https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582372944512065536?s=20&t=pLXLoTgXXpD5cbGRtAQXjg
RIP.
Really Tory PMs invade Iran.
https://twitter.com/GillibrandPeter/status/1582360897645064192
I had something else on the background so initially misheard Drakeford's shout of "some sort of moral high ground" as "some sort of moron hydra". On reflection I think the latter describes the current Government better...
Ukraine with the arms capabilities of NATO, or Russia with the arms capabilities of Iran. Its not exactly David versus Goliath here, is it?
The whole war now is just about how much pain America decides is an acceptable level for Ukraine to bear but still win, or conversely how much humiliation can be rained on Russia without it being seen as too much of an escalation. For my money, we can swing quite a bit further in Ukraine’s favour without risk but Biden is a cautious old peanut.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-g1exgkHsU
Which is where sanctions come in. If Russia loses this war, most of the reason will not be western weapons, or Ukraine's brilliant martial spirit. Most of the reason will be the damage the sanctions are doing to Russia's economy. I only hope the sanctions continue to bite harder, and that Russia does not manage to subvert to many of them.
Russia wins if it militarily takes Kyiv, deposes Zelensky, instals a friendlier Kyiv regime, gets a ceasefire in all Ukraine and “negotiations” about the
annexed territories
Something like that?
In the long run Russia cannot win. It has ensured that 40 million Ukrainians - right on the Russian border - will hate Russia forever. For generations. Even if it “wins” Moscow has guaranteed half a century of violence and insurrection - aimed at
Russia
The war was a colossal blunder by Putin. And no one in the west will ever buy his energy consistently. In economic terms Russia will probably become a Chinese and then Indian vassal. And the oligarchs will never again get to play in London and the Med
If they were launching 2400 a day to swarm the defences that might be damaging, but 2400 as a stockpile won't last long if its used suicidally.
You continuously take the best possible line for Putin, but even this is a stretch.
But I don't think it is simply "them" against "us".
China has a much more sophisticated understanding of the global power "supply chain" than exists in the West, where these 'biopolar' views prevail.
In the case of Ukraine, for example, I think China understands that it is not in China's interests for Russia to "win". I think they would much rather bleed both Western *and* Russian resources to their own benefit, for as long as it can be sustained.
AIUI it is fairly hard to provide such a shield. Which is why this development is quite worrying to many western militaries.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLVKVPc_Z6k
What I am proposing is firing them for letting down their electorate by refusing to do what they were elected to do.
If Norn Iron wants the Alliance in, they can vote them in.
The failure rate of semiconductors shipped from China to Russia has increased by 1,900 percent in recent months, according to Russian national business daily Коммерсантъ (Kommersant).
https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/18/russia_china_semiconductro_failure_rates/
https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1582386197565181953
Kitty Donaldson
@kitty_donaldson
NEW: The Conservatives caved in and allowed a free vote on abortion clinic buffer zones, a fresh sign that whips don’t want to pick fights they can’t win with mutinous backbenchers
I guess everyone on here except HUYFD will be happy with this (it's an amendment that introduces the buffer zones btw).
Uk Government currently 7%
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1582381613505478661/photo/1
"Taking Kiev" is a fantasy, towards which Iranian drones are irrelevant.
And unless it breaks Ukraine's will, which seems pretty unlikely, the ceasefire on Russia's terms isn't going to happen either.
Just need her in a short tennis dress hitching it up over one buttock.
I cannot see a way Russia ends up richer and more powerful than it was before the war. And that's only a lose for them.
Conservative backbenchers are growing increasingly frustrated with the PM's leadership, but currently lack any mechanisms to remove her
One Labour MP tells me: "Tories are speaking to us saying 'this is a complete nightmare and there is no way out'. We are being asked 'can't you do something about her?'"
https://twitter.com/camillahmturner/status/1582392401489895424
Shame on you for sharing the degenerate thoughts of your mind.
You need therapy.
Leave voters: Rejoin 9, single market or rejoin 22; fewer ties than now 13, status quo or fewer ties than now 23.
One very interesting thing on that chart is that 2016 non voters' responses are most similar to the overall figure - not to 2016 Remain voters as you zealots would have us believe.
And only 45% of 2016 Remain voters favour rejoining within 10-15 years. And as usual that will be inflated by people who wrongly think rejoining on the previous terms could be possible.
Wake. Up. People.
Short term "win" == "automatically get control"
Long term lose == economic and political vassal.
Gepard etc.
The issue is having lots of them to do this.
The best time to be a FTB is when prices have fallen, have stabilised, and when banks are just beginning to recover their nerves.
But that’s really a detail around your basic thesis - lower prices clearly benefit first time buyers all other things being equal
Though it would be interesting to see if those who have sworn by the GFA over the arguments regarding Brexit - including the USA - were willing to do the same if it was being breached to sideline the main Unionist party.
The only way this gets resolved is for unionists to realise that the DUP are not acting in their best interests and support the UUP instead.
So you get various bins of chips, based on their performance characteristics. It sounds like the Chinese are sending Russia the ones that never made it into bins and have been swept off the floor by a bored fab tech.
(*) Invented figures
(**) Not actual bins.
That's before the new systems are in place.
Ua needs some of these - Tehran would be well within range
If you're using your savings to buy a home, and house prices fall, the LTV ratio of your savings has improved.
If you're using your equity in your home or homes to buy a home, and house prices fall, the LTV ratio of your equity has worsened.
Even in house price falls, the housing market doesn't seize up completely. During such periods there are typically fewer house sales, but those house sales are dominated more by first time buyers who now find their savings are sufficient to buy a home, rather than existing home owners whose equity isn't there at the moment.
Otherwise idiotic backbenchers and the SNP would be calling VONCs every day which would paralyse the government and parliament.
*The PM can also call for a vote of confidence.
Germany
China: 7%
Russia: 22%
United States
China: 64%
Russia: 66%
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1582339693730930688
In comparison, an SA-300 missile system can cover up to 150km.
Russia in particular is a far bigger threat to Germany than the US.
Honestly if I have to hear them whinging on for week upon week again (just like in the Boris situation) I’ll be driven to distraction. DO IT you fools.
For the avoidance of doubt, I've just had my flu jab!
Wales' First Minister Mark Drakeford loses temper with Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies
https://bbc.in/3S77CPf https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1582393645235376128/video/1
And Johnson is more like Supermac than either would like to admit.
So who is going to be the Alec Douglas Home of our times?
And the west simply does not have enough suitable guns.
That's something probably being looked at now.
Cities would need something like Iron Dome to provide a complete defence - which is neither available nor economically possible anytime soon for a country with as many population centres as Ukraine.
But the current drones are extremely slow, and a fair percentage can be shot down with what Ukraine already has.
A period of high inflation had reduced price-to-incomes to low levels. While the high interest rates of the early 90s had decimated the buy-to-let sector, and had resulted in banks unwilling to lend to landlords, high rental yields (relative to purchase prices) and many landlords having left the market.
Result: if you bought a house or apartment in London 27 years ago you will probably have seen a 10x gain.
If others could then you could see say budgets delayed whilst idiots performed stunts by calling a VONC on the day of a budget.
Or when the PM and other ministers are overseas attending say a NATO summit.
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1582393187796389889
It is quite interesting that Douglas-Home was never the Hume Secretary
https://twitter.com/fahrettinaltay_/status/1582395893075955712?s=46&t=_L4DKwiiLswaZCSqelSJkQ
That’s the same Dugin who apparently wants nuclear war
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-a-greasy-spoon-in-west-london-tells-us-about-the-threat-of-nuclear-war
(*) It may not be, but it's prudent to treat it as such.