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Tory members are revolting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 20 in General
Tory members are revolting – politicalbetting.com

83% of Conservative party members say Liz Truss is doing badly as prime minister, including 55% who say "very badly"72% of those who voted for Truss at the leadership election say she is doing a bad jobhttps://t.co/KyjV1XbeNN pic.twitter.com/P685gEhNaG

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Comments

  • First?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,282
    Are still revolting.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,282

    First?

    Astonishingly, yes.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,767

    First?

    Just like Arsenal.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,282
    OT
    Something different for @Leon to worry about.

    Risk of nuclear war: noisily over-publicized. Risk that a Republican House majority will trigger a US debt default and global financial crisis: dangerously under-estimated.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1582330150405824512
  • tlg86 said:

    First?

    Just like Arsenal.
    I think you mean VARsenal.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,259
    So why oh why did they choose her? Was it the Maggie reborn stuff? Did the talk of 'Treasury orthodoxy' tap into a Trumpian destructive streak? The nearest thing they could get to Boris? What?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,410
    Boris Johnson 😂.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,527
    The same 55% who voted for Truss now want to get rid of her. Yet at the same time they think they should be solely responsible for picking the leader. There's no hope for them. I say that as a previous (long time ago now) Tory party member.

    Just let the MPs get on with it. When they make a mistake they can at least do something then about it quickly without worrying about the membership.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,767

    tlg86 said:

    First?

    Just like Arsenal.
    I think you mean VARsenal.
    I see what you did there. We'd have a point more if VAR wasn't in use this season.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Consider this: current voting intentions are so overstated that even people *on the very same poll* think @UKLabour will not win at the level their own behaviors imply. The Wisdom Index is back, from @martinboon https://bit.ly/3EMjLGt https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582335474018189312/photo/1
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551
    edited October 18
    Nigelb said:

    OT
    Something different for @Leon to worry about.

    Risk of nuclear war: noisily over-publicized. Risk that a Republican House majority will trigger a US debt default and global financial crisis: dangerously under-estimated.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1582330150405824512

    The GOP are going to hold the USA to ransom . Not surprised by that article .
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Nigel Farage's ex-Comms chief speaks ... https://twitter.com/Towler/status/1582292278361878528
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,646
    Teresa May being backed in the next Prime Minister market. Price range to back-lay is 36-70 on Betfair Exchange with last price matched 60.
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    First?

    Just like Arsenal.
    I think you mean VARsenal.
    I see what you did there. We'd have a point more if VAR wasn't in use this season.
    We'd have three more points if VAR wasn't operated by roasters 9 days ago at the Emirates.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,646
    edited October 18
    May now 14-40 for next PM with last price matched 40. (And it's not my money backing her!)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,202

    So why oh why did they choose her? Was it the Maggie reborn stuff? Did the talk of 'Treasury orthodoxy' tap into a Trumpian destructive streak? The nearest thing they could get to Boris? What?

    Projection. There is a tendency to project onto an untried leader all kinds of things.

    I still encounter people who are convinced that Corbyn is a life long Europhile and would have saved us from BREXIT, for example.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,492
    Scott_xP said:

    Consider this: current voting intentions are so overstated that even people *on the very same poll* think @UKLabour will not win at the level their own behaviors imply. The Wisdom Index is back, from @martinboon https://bit.ly/3EMjLGt https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582335474018189312/photo/1

    I believe we have all been saying the current Labour 30 point lead is an absolute crock.

    With swing back it is very, very tight indeed, certainly hung Parliament territory with quite possibly Labour on marginally most seats and a few percentage points ahead. It is all to play for.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    edited October 18
    You can back May, with boost, at 131 on Ladbrokes. That's next Con leader.

    Edited extra bit: caretaker/temporary leader does not count.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,216
    Those numbers are ok for Rishi Sunak, aren't they? Ignoring the risible not-happening option of Boris Johnson he's got more than double the support of anybody else.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,767

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    First?

    Just like Arsenal.
    I think you mean VARsenal.
    I see what you did there. We'd have a point more if VAR wasn't in use this season.
    We'd have three more points if VAR wasn't operated by roasters 9 days ago at the Emirates.
    The handball was borderline and I wouldn't have complained if it had been given.

    Our penalty was a penalty.

    Nunez was offside for your first goal.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Prime Minister Liz Truss "probably" has the backing of her ministers, the Transport Secretary Anne Marie Trevelyan said following a critical Cabinet meeting... (via PA)
    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1582340030416052226
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,410
    The Tory party has become a narrow church of Brexit ultras wedded to a Boris Johnson personality cult, masquerading as a mainstream party of the centre right.
    Many of its MPs are not signed up to this project, and I think they have to ask themselves whether they still owe the party members their loyalty, or whether they should abandon it before it crashes the whole country. The same question that many Labour MPs were asking under Corbyn, but this is much more urgent because the hijacking by extremists is more total, and the party is - at least on paper - in power.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    New poll shows every Norfolk Tory MP losing their seat... except Liz Truss
    https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/local-council/guardian-opinium-mrp-poll-every-tory-liz-truss-9334266
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,646
    Teresa May last price matched 18. Back/Lay range 14-30.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    edited October 18
    My column on the latest developments in the Conservative Cinematic Universe https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/18/britannia-rechained-liz-truss-hostage-era-jeremy-hunt?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Anyway, on to Hunt, clearly the more operational figure. Many of us will have spent far too long yesterday watching the new chancellor’s already unsettling twitch of slightly opening his eyes in a slightly startled fashion, slightly more often than every five seconds. I really don’t want to think of Jeremy as a chess grandmaster whose moves are being dictated by the markets via vibrating anal beads. But since I have, you must too.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,855

    Perhaps they should pilot voter ID in Tower Hamlets? See what happens. Is there a problem? Is it a load of fuss about nothing?

    When anyone says "There is no problem with X, in voting", I think back to my old flat mate who had his vote stolen in Tower Hamlets.

    When he went to the police to report this

    - They told him it wasn't a crime
    - Told him not to waste time on it
    - Eventually took a statement
    - Got upset because he wouldn't sign the statement, since it was full of stuff he hadn't said. Including some rather extreme stuff.
    - Eventually re-wrote the statement to match what had actually said and had happened.

    It took him most of day to get a crime number.

    Almost as if they were trying not to find electoral fraud, or something....
    It's just a bit funny that the Conservatives have been in power for 12 long years, you'd think they would have made a little bit of an effort to find evidence (if it exists) of the kind of electoral fraud that would justify introducing photo ID for voting, as it is a change to the voting system that does not have cross-party support.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    🍛ARGY-BHAJI: Truss faces fresh peril as ‘Balti Bandit’ plotters meet for secret curry

    Mel Stride hosted more than a dozen "miserable" Conservative MPs in his large House of Commons office for an Indian takeaway - with the PM's fate also on the table...

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/20146923/tory-rebels-secret-curry-plot/
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    stjohn said:

    Teresa May being backed in the next Prime Minister market. Price range to back-lay is 36-70 on Betfair Exchange with last price matched 60.

    May might have a chance as a “we need to get rid of Liz but can’t agree on anyone else to take over” compromise. If things became urgent in next couple of days or so (Liz somehow managed to something else highly damaging or stupid, or had a crisis and couldn’t carry on) then I guess she could land it.

    The issue with TM is that the Tories have to sign up to another May election campaign - when you are worried about wipeout not the most reassuring thought.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757

    You can back May, with boost, at 131 on Ladbrokes. That's next Con leader.

    Edited extra bit: caretaker/temporary leader does not count.

    Not sure she'd be the next conservative leader. Looks more like a PM should Liz resign immediately to me.
  • glwglw Posts: 8,788
    FPT:
    WillG said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Our NEW @InstituteGC report out this morning takes a deep dive on the state of public opinion on our relationship with the EU

    1. Despite all the promises, most people don't think we've 'got Brexit done'

    2. 70% now want a closer relationship with Europe

    https://institute.global/policy/moving-how-british-public-views-brexit-and-what-it-wants-future-relationship-european-union

    I want a closer relationship with Europe but not to re-join
    Even though I am sure that organization would have worded its questions to get the most pro-EU responses possible, it still found that a large majority don't want to rejoin the single market and don't want preferential treatment to EU migrants.
    Some very interesting polling. So even something like EFTA is a step too far for the public. This surely makes the Rejoin case near impossible?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    AlistairM said:

    The same 55% who voted for Truss now want to get rid of her. Yet at the same time they think they should be solely responsible for picking the leader. There's no hope for them. I say that as a previous (long time ago now) Tory party member.

    Just let the MPs get on with it. When they make a mistake they can at least do something then about it quickly without worrying about the membership.

    On the bright side at least the membership don't get to decide policy, as was the case in the labour party - or at least that was the goal of the Corbynites. I was astounded at how so many people could just go along with this idea and could not see its obvious problems. The vision seemed to be that the party is just there to serve a self selecting group of 'members', who pay a few quid a month to see their preferred policies enacted - and don't do any work at all for the most part. The idea seemed to be that they would get to decide the policy, whilst the activists, campaigners, and MPs would make it all happen. It is hard to think of a more certain way to alienate the electorate, demotivate everyone involved, and be useless if by accident you do somehow get in to power.
  • TinkyWinkyTinkyWinky Posts: 125
    edited October 18
    Is it wrong for me to loathe 'Tory members'?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    Scott_xP said:

    🍛ARGY-BHAJI: Truss faces fresh peril as ‘Balti Bandit’ plotters meet for secret curry

    Mel Stride hosted more than a dozen "miserable" Conservative MPs in his large House of Commons office for an Indian takeaway - with the PM's fate also on the table...

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/20146923/tory-rebels-secret-curry-plot/

    There's a picture of a curry in case you're not sure what they look like.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,646

    stjohn said:

    Teresa May being backed in the next Prime Minister market. Price range to back-lay is 36-70 on Betfair Exchange with last price matched 60.

    May might have a chance as a “we need to get rid of Liz but can’t agree on anyone else to take over” compromise. If things became urgent in next couple of days or so (Liz somehow managed to something else highly damaging or stupid, or had a crisis and couldn’t carry on) then I guess she could land it.

    The issue with TM is that the Tories have to sign up to another May election campaign - when you are worried about wipeout not the most reassuring thought.
    Two ways around that. Either (i) a new leader replaces May before the next General Election or (ii) May doesn't front the General Election campaign.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    Peston has an blog post that actually makes sense https://www.itv.com/news/2022-10-18/liz-trusss-and-the-tory-partys-future-all-depends-on-boris

    Jist is - that nothing can be done until Boris backs down and accepts that Sunak / someone else needs to be appointed leader and unless he does there will be a contested contest.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,620

    Is it wrong for me to loathe 'Tory members'?

    Not as long as you loath Labour, Lib Dem and SNP members as well.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    glw said:

    FPT:

    WillG said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Our NEW @InstituteGC report out this morning takes a deep dive on the state of public opinion on our relationship with the EU

    1. Despite all the promises, most people don't think we've 'got Brexit done'

    2. 70% now want a closer relationship with Europe

    https://institute.global/policy/moving-how-british-public-views-brexit-and-what-it-wants-future-relationship-european-union

    I want a closer relationship with Europe but not to re-join
    Even though I am sure that organization would have worded its questions to get the most pro-EU responses possible, it still found that a large majority don't want to rejoin the single market and don't want preferential treatment to EU migrants.
    Some very interesting polling. So even something like EFTA is a step too far for the public. This surely makes the Rejoin case near impossible?
    There wouldn't be preferential rules for EU migrants - we just need to implement the rules as they should have been set back in 2005. Yes you can come here to work but you aren't getting any benefits until you've been working x years and during that time you need to pay for your NHS treatment.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    stjohn said:

    stjohn said:

    Teresa May being backed in the next Prime Minister market. Price range to back-lay is 36-70 on Betfair Exchange with last price matched 60.

    May might have a chance as a “we need to get rid of Liz but can’t agree on anyone else to take over” compromise. If things became urgent in next couple of days or so (Liz somehow managed to something else highly damaging or stupid, or had a crisis and couldn’t carry on) then I guess she could land it.

    The issue with TM is that the Tories have to sign up to another May election campaign - when you are worried about wipeout not the most reassuring thought.
    Two ways around that. Either (i) a new leader replaces May before the next General Election or (ii) May doesn't front the General Election campaign.
    They can’t surely have another leader after Truss’ replacement? The media are eating them alive on that point as it is.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,620
    Scott_xP said:

    New poll shows every Norfolk Tory MP losing their seat... except Liz Truss
    https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/local-council/guardian-opinium-mrp-poll-every-tory-liz-truss-9334266

    I wonder what the Turnip Taliban think about that now.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,620
    glw said:

    FPT:

    WillG said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Our NEW @InstituteGC report out this morning takes a deep dive on the state of public opinion on our relationship with the EU

    1. Despite all the promises, most people don't think we've 'got Brexit done'

    2. 70% now want a closer relationship with Europe

    https://institute.global/policy/moving-how-british-public-views-brexit-and-what-it-wants-future-relationship-european-union

    I want a closer relationship with Europe but not to re-join
    Even though I am sure that organization would have worded its questions to get the most pro-EU responses possible, it still found that a large majority don't want to rejoin the single market and don't want preferential treatment to EU migrants.
    Some very interesting polling. So even something like EFTA is a step too far for the public. This surely makes the Rejoin case near impossible?
    I don't see why? EFTA does not confer Single Market membership nor does it require freedom of movement for EU citizens.

    For those you need to go a step further and join the EEA.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    We’ve been expecting you…

    🎖️The Princess Royal presents Daniel Craig with The Order of St Michael and St George - the same honour held by his character James Bond - in recognition of his outstanding contribution to film and theatre.

    https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1582319162307018752/photo/1
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,364

    Is it wrong for me to loathe 'Tory members'?

    It does not seem a very productive use of your time.
  • barrykennabarrykenna Posts: 206
    Scott_xP said:

    New poll shows every Norfolk Tory MP losing their seat... except Liz Truss
    https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/local-council/guardian-opinium-mrp-poll-every-tory-liz-truss-9334266

    Yet Norfolk SW was actually a Labour -held seat until 1964 when - against the national tide- it was gained by the Tories!
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278
    Scott_xP said:

    Consider this: current voting intentions are so overstated that even people *on the very same poll* think @UKLabour will not win at the level their own behaviors imply. The Wisdom Index is back, from @martinboon https://bit.ly/3EMjLGt https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582335474018189312/photo/1

    I'm never sure about this measure. People will always gravitate towards the middle when reporting "their opinion" on an outcome, so as to minimize how "wrong" they are. It doesn't seem to me that this means that the extreme result is any less likely.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 635
    Scott_xP said:

    🍛ARGY-BHAJI: Truss faces fresh peril as ‘Balti Bandit’ plotters meet for secret curry

    Mel Stride hosted more than a dozen "miserable" Conservative MPs in his large House of Commons office for an Indian takeaway - with the PM's fate also on the table...

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/20146923/tory-rebels-secret-curry-plot/

    She's for the dhan-sack. But who else can they tikka chance on?
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,844
    On topic. Tory members were presented with a choice of two so they opted for Truss. There's no indication who they might have elected if they could have chosen from the original five (or more). It's quite likely their attachment to Truss was tenuous and they blame their MPs for forcing them to choose between two losers. The whole idea of a membership-wide election is illogical - a dereliction of duty by MPs. Must never happen again for a party in government.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited October 18
    Scott_xP said:

    New poll shows every Norfolk Tory MP losing their seat... except Liz Truss
    https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/local-council/guardian-opinium-mrp-poll-every-tory-liz-truss-9334266

    If Great Yarmouth is hyper marginal as opinium suggests then Waveney drops but the rest aside from Chloe stay blue imo.
    Worth noting North Norfolk will gain bits of Great Yarmouth in boundary changes which serms to be the relatively best bit of rural/town Norfolk for the blues.
    Broadland would cause me most concern if i were a Tory strategist, Chloe in Norwich North is gone whatever happens
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977
    @Podolyak_M
    RF certainly offered something important to Iran in exchange for the drones and the ballistic missile contract.

    What do you think Iran got by agreeing to direct complicity in the mass murders of 🇺🇦?

    1. Uranium and other materials
    2. Nuclear technologies
    3. Guarantees from RF


    https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1582345333887025152
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278

    Is it wrong for me to loathe 'Tory members'?

    Not as long as you loath Labour, Lib Dem and SNP members as well.
    Having only ever been one of those things, there's only one party in that list whose members, on average, I don't dislike. And it is not the party of which I was a member.

    I suspect local factors dominate my view.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,556
    stjohn said:

    Teresa May being backed in the next Prime Minister market. Price range to back-lay is 36-70 on Betfair Exchange with last price matched 60.

    Nice little profit on that this morning: minimum 20% return secured in about ten minutes.* Still got some left on May, just in case (or for trading if she comes in more).

    *Of course, in fifteen years time when PM Truss finally retires after leading the UK and the Conservatives into the sunny uplands of Brexit, that 20% return will look rather paltry.
  • Selebian said:

    stjohn said:

    Teresa May being backed in the next Prime Minister market. Price range to back-lay is 36-70 on Betfair Exchange with last price matched 60.

    Nice little profit on that this morning: minimum 20% return secured in about ten minutes.* Still got some left on May, just in case (or for trading if she comes in more).

    *Of course, in fifteen years time when PM Truss finally retires after leading the UK and the Conservatives into the sunny uplands of Brexit, that 20% return will look rather paltry.
    Theresa!!!!

    Even the Tories wouldn't make a porn star PM
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    eek said:

    Peston has an blog post that actually makes sense https://www.itv.com/news/2022-10-18/liz-trusss-and-the-tory-partys-future-all-depends-on-boris

    Jist is - that nothing can be done until Boris backs down and accepts that Sunak / someone else needs to be appointed leader and unless he does there will be a contested contest.

    I disagree with Peston (predictably) because I don’t think Sunak is the only one who could be the leader. If Sunak isn’t capable of uniting the MPs then the situation will force them into going with someone else - a Mordaunt or a Hunt for instance.

    That said I do think that he is hitting on something which is incredibly depressing but should really be predictable - Tory MPs are once again paralysed and can’t act. We saw this with Boris (which kept that show on the road far too long). Peston now talks about MPs starting to brief that they’ll give Truss till the statement on the 31st - just under 2 weeks away. That’s another 2 weeks of humiliation, chaos and psychodrama. That’s another 2 weeks of the public associating Truss’ failings with the Tory brand.

    And once that’s over, there’ll be people saying to give her until the new year.

    This delaying the inevitable does them no good.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    Scott_xP said:

    New poll shows every Norfolk Tory MP losing their seat... except Liz Truss
    https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/local-council/guardian-opinium-mrp-poll-every-tory-liz-truss-9334266

    Yet Norfolk SW was actually a Labour -held seat until 1964 when - against the national tide- it was gained by the Tories!
    Lots of rural Norfolk was red, that all changed when the agricultural worker base vote faded away
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,844

    Selebian said:

    stjohn said:

    Teresa May being backed in the next Prime Minister market. Price range to back-lay is 36-70 on Betfair Exchange with last price matched 60.

    Nice little profit on that this morning: minimum 20% return secured in about ten minutes.* Still got some left on May, just in case (or for trading if she comes in more).

    *Of course, in fifteen years time when PM Truss finally retires after leading the UK and the Conservatives into the sunny uplands of Brexit, that 20% return will look rather paltry.
    Theresa!!!!

    Even the Tories wouldn't make a porn star PM
    Easy enough nemonic: Theresa's the definite article.
  • Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🍛ARGY-BHAJI: Truss faces fresh peril as ‘Balti Bandit’ plotters meet for secret curry

    Mel Stride hosted more than a dozen "miserable" Conservative MPs in his large House of Commons office for an Indian takeaway - with the PM's fate also on the table...

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/20146923/tory-rebels-secret-curry-plot/

    She's for the dhan-sack. But who else can they tikka chance on?
    They need to pick someone good, or Beer Korma will win with a landslide.
  • glwglw Posts: 8,788
    edited October 18

    glw said:

    FPT:

    WillG said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Our NEW @InstituteGC report out this morning takes a deep dive on the state of public opinion on our relationship with the EU

    1. Despite all the promises, most people don't think we've 'got Brexit done'

    2. 70% now want a closer relationship with Europe

    https://institute.global/policy/moving-how-british-public-views-brexit-and-what-it-wants-future-relationship-european-union

    I want a closer relationship with Europe but not to re-join
    Even though I am sure that organization would have worded its questions to get the most pro-EU responses possible, it still found that a large majority don't want to rejoin the single market and don't want preferential treatment to EU migrants.
    Some very interesting polling. So even something like EFTA is a step too far for the public. This surely makes the Rejoin case near impossible?
    I don't see why? EFTA does not confer Single Market membership nor does it require freedom of movement for EU citizens.

    For those you need to go a step further and join the EEA.
    I can't see that we'd join EFTA and not be in the EEA, even if it was with some sectorial exemptions.

    That polling, which goes beyond the Remain/Leave or Good/Bad Brexit simplification, makes the public as a whole look more Eurosceptic than many of the Leavers here. The public might not be happy with Brexit but they sure as hell are not clamouring for rejoining the EU as it actually is.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🍛ARGY-BHAJI: Truss faces fresh peril as ‘Balti Bandit’ plotters meet for secret curry

    Mel Stride hosted more than a dozen "miserable" Conservative MPs in his large House of Commons office for an Indian takeaway - with the PM's fate also on the table...

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/20146923/tory-rebels-secret-curry-plot/

    She's for the dhan-sack. But who else can they tikka chance on?
    They need to pick someone good, or Beer Korma will win with a landslide.
    Say Aloo to the new boss, same as the old boss
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,220
    edited October 18

    Scott_xP said:

    Consider this: current voting intentions are so overstated that even people *on the very same poll* think @UKLabour will not win at the level their own behaviors imply. The Wisdom Index is back, from @martinboon https://bit.ly/3EMjLGt https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582335474018189312/photo/1

    I believe we have all been saying the current Labour 30 point lead is an absolute crock.

    With swing back it is very, very tight indeed, certainly hung Parliament territory with quite possibly Labour on marginally most seats and a few percentage points ahead. It is all to play for.
    "Who would you vote for if there were a general election tomorrow?" is a very different quetsion to "who will you vote for in the general election in 18/24 months after a campaign?"...

    But for Sir Keir to blow a majority from here would be the biggest failure in British politics since I dunno when, answers on a postcard.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 9,956
    edited October 18
    kamski said:

    Perhaps they should pilot voter ID in Tower Hamlets? See what happens. Is there a problem? Is it a load of fuss about nothing?

    When anyone says "There is no problem with X, in voting", I think back to my old flat mate who had his vote stolen in Tower Hamlets.

    When he went to the police to report this

    - They told him it wasn't a crime
    - Told him not to waste time on it
    - Eventually took a statement
    - Got upset because he wouldn't sign the statement, since it was full of stuff he hadn't said. Including some rather extreme stuff.
    - Eventually re-wrote the statement to match what had actually said and had happened.

    It took him most of day to get a crime number.

    Almost as if they were trying not to find electoral fraud, or something....
    It's just a bit funny that the Conservatives have been in power for 12 long years, you'd think they would have made a little bit of an effort to find evidence (if it exists) of the kind of electoral fraud that would justify introducing photo ID for voting, as it is a change to the voting system that does not have cross-party support.
    Evidence has been found, which is why the independent Electoral Commission recommended expanding Tony Blair's rules for NI nationwide.

    The only reason there's not cross-party support is that the opposition parties would vehemently anything the Tories introduce, because its the Tories introducing it. If it were Keir Starmer who was introducing Tony Blair's rules nationwide, then a lot of those vehemently opposing supposed "Tory" electoral shenanigans wouldn't be making a peep of sound about it.

    EDIT: And to be fair, in those circumstances, many Tories would instinctively oppose it, because it would be a Labour leader implementing Labour's own idea instead of a Tory doing it.
  • barrykennabarrykenna Posts: 206

    Scott_xP said:

    New poll shows every Norfolk Tory MP losing their seat... except Liz Truss
    https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/local-council/guardian-opinium-mrp-poll-every-tory-liz-truss-9334266

    Yet Norfolk SW was actually a Labour -held seat until 1964 when - against the national tide- it was gained by the Tories!
    Lots of rural Norfolk was red, that all changed when the agricultural worker base vote faded away
    Indeed so. North Norfolk was Labour until 1970. I find it surprising,however, that the Tories would lose Norfolk S but hang on to Norfolk SW.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,220
    kamski said:

    Perhaps they should pilot voter ID in Tower Hamlets? See what happens. Is there a problem? Is it a load of fuss about nothing?

    When anyone says "There is no problem with X, in voting", I think back to my old flat mate who had his vote stolen in Tower Hamlets.

    When he went to the police to report this

    - They told him it wasn't a crime
    - Told him not to waste time on it
    - Eventually took a statement
    - Got upset because he wouldn't sign the statement, since it was full of stuff he hadn't said. Including some rather extreme stuff.
    - Eventually re-wrote the statement to match what had actually said and had happened.

    It took him most of day to get a crime number.

    Almost as if they were trying not to find electoral fraud, or something....
    It's just a bit funny that the Conservatives have been in power for 12 long years, you'd think they would have made a little bit of an effort to find evidence (if it exists) of the kind of electoral fraud that would justify introducing photo ID for voting, as it is a change to the voting system that does not have cross-party support.
    The Electoral Commission supports it, how much more evidence do you need?
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 635

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🍛ARGY-BHAJI: Truss faces fresh peril as ‘Balti Bandit’ plotters meet for secret curry

    Mel Stride hosted more than a dozen "miserable" Conservative MPs in his large House of Commons office for an Indian takeaway - with the PM's fate also on the table...

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/20146923/tory-rebels-secret-curry-plot/

    She's for the dhan-sack. But who else can they tikka chance on?
    They need to pick someone good, or Beer Korma will win with a landslide.
    I see naan more likely right now.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 11,232
    edited October 18

    Scott_xP said:

    Consider this: current voting intentions are so overstated that even people *on the very same poll* think @UKLabour will not win at the level their own behaviors imply. The Wisdom Index is back, from @martinboon https://bit.ly/3EMjLGt https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582335474018189312/photo/1

    I believe we have all been saying the current Labour 30 point lead is an absolute crock.

    With swing back it is very, very tight indeed, certainly hung Parliament territory with quite possibly Labour on marginally most seats and a few percentage points ahead. It is all to play for.
    This is why Betfair has Labour Majority as 1.9 rather than 1.01. Punters assume the Tories will 'sort it out' at least to some extent and that in a real GE there would be an element of what you call swing-back.

    I think that's right in principle, although I think you overstate the case. In fact I think the punters are a bit out but not in the way you suggest. I would have the price at 1.75, so a bit of value in back Labour Maj. but not a huge amount.

    I recall winning shedloads in 1997 when despite the polls the bookies still had Major at 7/2. So bear in mind that 'swing-back' doesn't always happen, and as in 1997 you can get 'swing-more'.

    There is no short-cut to figuring it out yourself, and backing accordingly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,282

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🍛ARGY-BHAJI: Truss faces fresh peril as ‘Balti Bandit’ plotters meet for secret curry

    Mel Stride hosted more than a dozen "miserable" Conservative MPs in his large House of Commons office for an Indian takeaway - with the PM's fate also on the table...

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/20146923/tory-rebels-secret-curry-plot/

    She's for the dhan-sack. But who else can they tikka chance on?
    They need to pick someone good, or Beer Korma will win with a landslide.
    I see the Korma Comedians are out in force this afternoon.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,304
    edited October 18
    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    eristdoof said:

    ping said:

    I think the political history of this crisis really needs to focus on (and begin with) the election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader. The tories reacted by ditching sensible and pursuing various incarnations of fantasy and nutty in the belief they could get away with it and take the voters with them, ever since.

    It ended in what is basically a solvency crisis, having drained the treasury.

    They got drunk on power.

    This time, there really is no money left.

    Yes, this crisis is all Labour's fault. LoL
    Margaret Beckett’s fault, to be specific.

    The trail of damage that she has caused puts her up there with…well, you can imagine.
    No - Harriet Harman should carry the can for Corbyn's election in 2015.
    Eric Joyce.

    ...a Scotsman flaps his wings in the Strangers' Bar...
    On the other hand, that takes matters back to Dennis Canavan in 2000 resigning his MP's seat as a matter of principle when he thumpingly won the equivalent Holyrood constituency as an Independent, Labour HQ having deselected him. Hence Mr Joyce winning the by-election ...
    Canavan's passion for Scots independence (which led to his resignation) was confirmed when Scotland beat England 2-1 at Wembley in 1977, a game he attended and in which he partook in the infamous pitch invasion.

    The scorer of the winning goal that day? One Kenneth Dalglish...
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 635
    Nigelb said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🍛ARGY-BHAJI: Truss faces fresh peril as ‘Balti Bandit’ plotters meet for secret curry

    Mel Stride hosted more than a dozen "miserable" Conservative MPs in his large House of Commons office for an Indian takeaway - with the PM's fate also on the table...

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/20146923/tory-rebels-secret-curry-plot/

    She's for the dhan-sack. But who else can they tikka chance on?
    They need to pick someone good, or Beer Korma will win with a landslide.
    I see the Korma Comedians are out in force this afternoon.
    Just good-natured (rogan) joshing.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204

    eek said:

    Peston has an blog post that actually makes sense https://www.itv.com/news/2022-10-18/liz-trusss-and-the-tory-partys-future-all-depends-on-boris

    Jist is - that nothing can be done until Boris backs down and accepts that Sunak / someone else needs to be appointed leader and unless he does there will be a contested contest.

    I disagree with Peston (predictably) because I don’t think Sunak is the only one who could be the leader. If Sunak isn’t capable of uniting the MPs then the situation will force them into going with someone else - a Mordaunt or a Hunt for instance.

    That said I do think that he is hitting on something which is incredibly depressing but should really be predictable - Tory MPs are once again paralysed and can’t act. We saw this with Boris (which kept that show on the road far too long). Peston now talks about MPs starting to brief that they’ll give Truss till the statement on the 31st - just under 2 weeks away. That’s another 2 weeks of humiliation, chaos and psychodrama. That’s another 2 weeks of the public associating Truss’ failings with the Tory brand.

    And once that’s over, there’ll be people saying to give her until the new year.

    This delaying the inevitable does them no good.
    If Boris has 50-60 MP's (which I find hard to believe), and 32% of the party, then he is not actually in a strong position - actually it is quite similar to the MPs and members who were opposed to a his deal over Brexit. It doesn't seem like enough to mount his desired comeback, so I can't see him causing too much trouble. Even if he wants to destroy the Conservative party, it is unlikely people will follow him in to such a kamikaze mission.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278

    eek said:

    Peston has an blog post that actually makes sense https://www.itv.com/news/2022-10-18/liz-trusss-and-the-tory-partys-future-all-depends-on-boris

    Jist is - that nothing can be done until Boris backs down and accepts that Sunak / someone else needs to be appointed leader and unless he does there will be a contested contest.

    I disagree with Peston (predictably) because I don’t think Sunak is the only one who could be the leader. If Sunak isn’t capable of uniting the MPs then the situation will force them into going with someone else - a Mordaunt or a Hunt for instance.

    That said I do think that he is hitting on something which is incredibly depressing but should really be predictable - Tory MPs are once again paralysed and can’t act. We saw this with Boris (which kept that show on the road far too long). Peston now talks about MPs starting to brief that they’ll give Truss till the statement on the 31st - just under 2 weeks away. That’s another 2 weeks of humiliation, chaos and psychodrama. That’s another 2 weeks of the public associating Truss’ failings with the Tory brand.

    And once that’s over, there’ll be people saying to give her until the new year.

    This delaying the inevitable does them no good.
    I agree. But think of it from the Tory MP's point of view: for a sizeable proportion of the cohort, almost everything they've 'done' since 2016 has made things worse*. What makes next time better?

    * yes Boris got them a whopping majority, but in retrospect they set themselves up for "all this" when they chose him
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited October 18

    Scott_xP said:

    New poll shows every Norfolk Tory MP losing their seat... except Liz Truss
    https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/local-council/guardian-opinium-mrp-poll-every-tory-liz-truss-9334266

    Yet Norfolk SW was actually a Labour -held seat until 1964 when - against the national tide- it was gained by the Tories!
    Lots of rural Norfolk was red, that all changed when the agricultural worker base vote faded away
    Indeed so. North Norfolk was Labour until 1970. I find it surprising,however, that the Tories would lose Norfolk S but hang on to Norfolk SW.
    Norfolk South would be next to drop after Broadland, both contain large chunks of suburban Norwich and voting patterns in those sections closer to Norwich city than the county. Truss has Thetford which is ripe for Labour but the rest is 'very' Tory, ditto NW outside Kings Lynn and Mid outwith Dereham
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,146
    If Hunt had led the Tories at the last general election he would not have remained voters lost to the Brexit Party and it would have remained a hung parliament, Brexit would still not be done and Corbyn would still be Labour leader instead of the landslide victory Boris win.

    The key thing now is most Tory members prefer Sunak to Truss, so if Tory MPs crown Sunak by coronation to save some of their seats most Tory members won't complain
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,220
    glw said:

    glw said:

    FPT:

    WillG said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Our NEW @InstituteGC report out this morning takes a deep dive on the state of public opinion on our relationship with the EU

    1. Despite all the promises, most people don't think we've 'got Brexit done'

    2. 70% now want a closer relationship with Europe

    https://institute.global/policy/moving-how-british-public-views-brexit-and-what-it-wants-future-relationship-european-union

    I want a closer relationship with Europe but not to re-join
    Even though I am sure that organization would have worded its questions to get the most pro-EU responses possible, it still found that a large majority don't want to rejoin the single market and don't want preferential treatment to EU migrants.
    Some very interesting polling. So even something like EFTA is a step too far for the public. This surely makes the Rejoin case near impossible?
    I don't see why? EFTA does not confer Single Market membership nor does it require freedom of movement for EU citizens.

    For those you need to go a step further and join the EEA.
    I can't see that we'd join EFTA and not be in the EEA, even if it was with some sectorial exemptions.

    That polling, which goes beyond the Remain/Leave or Good/Bad Brexit simplification, makes the public as a whole look more Eurosceptic than many of the Leavers here. The public might not be happy with Brexit but they sure as hell are not clamouring for rejoining the EU as it actually is.
    It also shows how pointless the hindsight polling that Scotty regularly spams us with is.
  • ihuntihunt Posts: 146
    mwadams said:

    eek said:

    Peston has an blog post that actually makes sense https://www.itv.com/news/2022-10-18/liz-trusss-and-the-tory-partys-future-all-depends-on-boris

    Jist is - that nothing can be done until Boris backs down and accepts that Sunak / someone else needs to be appointed leader and unless he does there will be a contested contest.

    I disagree with Peston (predictably) because I don’t think Sunak is the only one who could be the leader. If Sunak isn’t capable of uniting the MPs then the situation will force them into going with someone else - a Mordaunt or a Hunt for instance.

    That said I do think that he is hitting on something which is incredibly depressing but should really be predictable - Tory MPs are once again paralysed and can’t act. We saw this with Boris (which kept that show on the road far too long). Peston now talks about MPs starting to brief that they’ll give Truss till the statement on the 31st - just under 2 weeks away. That’s another 2 weeks of humiliation, chaos and psychodrama. That’s another 2 weeks of the public associating Truss’ failings with the Tory brand.

    And once that’s over, there’ll be people saying to give her until the new year.

    This delaying the inevitable does them no good.
    I agree. But think of it from the Tory MP's point of view: for a sizeable proportion of the cohort, almost everything they've 'done' since 2016 has made things worse*. What makes next time better?

    * yes Boris got them a whopping majority, but in retrospect they set themselves up for "all this" when they chose him
    For tory mps best outcome i think is hunt running the country with Truss as a powerless figurehead occasionally wheeled out for pmqs
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 151
    Betfair has moved from 1.20 at one point yesterday to 1.71 for Truss to leave in 2022, i think she might actually last till 2023 now
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,446
    FPT

    DougSeal said:

    » show previous quotes
    “Alexa, define irony”

    "Alexa what does arsehole mean" , Alexa " that mealy mouthed cretin ronseal"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    NEW: None of Liz Truss's cabinet suggested she should quit at their 90-minute long meeting this morning - PM's official spokesman.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1582349662073208832
  • HYUFD said:

    If Hunt had led the Tories at the last general election he would not have remained voters lost to the Brexit Party and it would have remained a hung parliament, Brexit would still not be done and Corbyn would still be Labour leader instead of the landslide victory Boris win.

    The key thing now is most Tory members prefer Sunak to Truss, so if Tory MPs crown Sunak by coronation to save some of their seats most Tory members won't complain

    If Hunt had won the 2019 Tory leadership election, then I think Jeremy Corbyn would have become Prime Minister following the May 2022 election.

    Hunt wouldn't have had the confrontation with Parliament that Boris did, wouldn't have regained the lost votes, wouldn't have had an early election, and would have extended Article 50 into 2020 . . . and then the pandemic would have struck with Brexit still not "done".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    Triple lock going apparently !

    A good move, but it looks like the Tories have thrown in the towel for the next election.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,353

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🍛ARGY-BHAJI: Truss faces fresh peril as ‘Balti Bandit’ plotters meet for secret curry

    Mel Stride hosted more than a dozen "miserable" Conservative MPs in his large House of Commons office for an Indian takeaway - with the PM's fate also on the table...

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/20146923/tory-rebels-secret-curry-plot/

    She's for the dhan-sack. But who else can they tikka chance on?
    They need to pick someone good, or Beer Korma will win with a landslide.
    Say Aloo to the new boss, same as the old boss
    Saagy
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278
    HYUFD said:

    If Hunt had led the Tories at the last general election he would not have remained voters lost to the Brexit Party and it would have remained a hung parliament, Brexit would still not be done and Corbyn would still be Labour leader instead of the landslide victory Boris win.

    The key thing now is most Tory members prefer Sunak to Truss, so if Tory MPs crown Sunak by coronation to save some of their seats most Tory members won't complain

    (Added emphasis)

    Would this not actually be a better position for the Tory party today?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,353

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🍛ARGY-BHAJI: Truss faces fresh peril as ‘Balti Bandit’ plotters meet for secret curry

    Mel Stride hosted more than a dozen "miserable" Conservative MPs in his large House of Commons office for an Indian takeaway - with the PM's fate also on the table...

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/20146923/tory-rebels-secret-curry-plot/

    She's for the dhan-sack. But who else can they tikka chance on?
    They need to pick someone good, or Beer Korma will win with a landslide.
    Poppadum replacement up and hope for the best..
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Ghedebrav said:

    Nigelb said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🍛ARGY-BHAJI: Truss faces fresh peril as ‘Balti Bandit’ plotters meet for secret curry

    Mel Stride hosted more than a dozen "miserable" Conservative MPs in his large House of Commons office for an Indian takeaway - with the PM's fate also on the table...

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/20146923/tory-rebels-secret-curry-plot/

    She's for the dhan-sack. But who else can they tikka chance on?
    They need to pick someone good, or Beer Korma will win with a landslide.
    I see the Korma Comedians are out in force this afternoon.
    Just good-natured (rogan) joshing.
    Truss is utterly kebabed
  • mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Hunt had led the Tories at the last general election he would not have remained voters lost to the Brexit Party and it would have remained a hung parliament, Brexit would still not be done and Corbyn would still be Labour leader instead of the landslide victory Boris win.

    The key thing now is most Tory members prefer Sunak to Truss, so if Tory MPs crown Sunak by coronation to save some of their seats most Tory members won't complain

    (Added emphasis)

    Would this not actually be a better position for the Tory party today?
    If Jeremy Corbyn had become Prime Minister in May 2022 would that have been better?

    No, heck no, a million times no.
  • I'll out myself as a party member who voted for Truss and now bitterly regrets it. Had Yougov asked me (and why they didn't I don't know as I'm on their books as a party member of many years) their figures for Truss would have skewed a little more against her.

    Ultimately, I don't like these sorts of polls, because they don't represent what you'd get out of them by way a compromise candidate. If Yougov could produce, for party members, a ranked choice type of poll, perhaps we'd see a very different result coming to the fore.

    For me, right now my ranked choices would be 1: Wallace, 2: Mordaunt, 3: Sunak, 4: Badenoch, 5: Hunt.

    I would like to see the results of that sort of vote. I would also like to know how many of Mordaunt's backers among MPs would have split for Rishi and Liz. Nobody knows that, yet it's important for an informed choice for members who, among other things, really ought to be considering the ability of a candidate to produce a stable government. Overall, the entire leadership election process is deeply flawed because of these unanswerable questions that lead to insufficiently informed electorates - like me - making the wrong choice for leader.

    PS. Despite his success in the past, Johnson is far too damaged right now to be a serious choice for return to No 10. He needs time for that to wear off and for reinvention - if he's capable of it. He could plausibly return if (when) the Tories lose the next general election and have gone through another different Howard-style leader, but does he have the patience for that?

  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278
    Pulpstar said:

    Triple lock going apparently !

    A good move, but it looks like the Tories have thrown in the towel for the next election.

    I think this is very encouraging - is Hunt calculating that the Tories have lost, and so he can/should do what is actually best for the country's long term position?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Martin Baxter has published his latest Electoral Calculus prediction:

    Labour 507 seats (+304)
    Scottish National Party 52 seats (+4)
    Conservatives 48 seats (-317)
    Liberal Democrats 19 seats (+8)
    Plaid Cymru 4 seats (nc)
    Greens 1 seat (nc)
    NI 18 seats (nc)
    Speaker 1 seat (+1)
  • Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Consider this: current voting intentions are so overstated that even people *on the very same poll* think @UKLabour will not win at the level their own behaviors imply. The Wisdom Index is back, from @martinboon https://bit.ly/3EMjLGt https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582335474018189312/photo/1

    I believe we have all been saying the current Labour 30 point lead is an absolute crock.

    With swing back it is very, very tight indeed, certainly hung Parliament territory with quite possibly Labour on marginally most seats and a few percentage points ahead. It is all to play for.
    "Who would you vote for if there were a general election tomorrow?" is a very different quetsion to "who will you vote for in the general election in 18/24 months after a campaign?"...

    But for Sir Keir to blow a majority from here would be the biggest failure in British politics since I dunno when, answers on a postcard.
    I think Opinium ask something like your second question, which is why they tend to give narrower leads. I agree with your second para though. Governing Parties just don't come back from the kind of deficits we are seeing consistently across the polls.

    There is actually no more reason to think Labour will blow it than there is to think the Tories will blow it a whole lot more.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,146
    glw said:

    FPT:

    WillG said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Our NEW @InstituteGC report out this morning takes a deep dive on the state of public opinion on our relationship with the EU

    1. Despite all the promises, most people don't think we've 'got Brexit done'

    2. 70% now want a closer relationship with Europe

    https://institute.global/policy/moving-how-british-public-views-brexit-and-what-it-wants-future-relationship-european-union

    I want a closer relationship with Europe but not to re-join
    Even though I am sure that organization would have worded its questions to get the most pro-EU responses possible, it still found that a large majority don't want to rejoin the single market and don't want preferential treatment to EU migrants.
    Some very interesting polling. So even something like EFTA is a step too far for the public. This surely makes the Rejoin case near impossible?
    Yes, just 19% of Conservative voters and even only 47% of Labour voters want to rejoin the EU or single market on that poll. Only a majority of LD voters want to rejoin the EU or single market.

    Most voters instead support a closer relationship with Europe but still outside the EU or EEA
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,216

    glw said:

    FPT:

    WillG said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Our NEW @InstituteGC report out this morning takes a deep dive on the state of public opinion on our relationship with the EU

    1. Despite all the promises, most people don't think we've 'got Brexit done'

    2. 70% now want a closer relationship with Europe

    https://institute.global/policy/moving-how-british-public-views-brexit-and-what-it-wants-future-relationship-european-union

    I want a closer relationship with Europe but not to re-join
    Even though I am sure that organization would have worded its questions to get the most pro-EU responses possible, it still found that a large majority don't want to rejoin the single market and don't want preferential treatment to EU migrants.
    Some very interesting polling. So even something like EFTA is a step too far for the public. This surely makes the Rejoin case near impossible?
    I don't see why? EFTA does not confer Single Market membership nor does it require freedom of movement for EU citizens.

    For those you need to go a step further and join the EEA.
    I wonder how many of the public know the difference between those 2 things?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278
    edited October 18

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Hunt had led the Tories at the last general election he would not have remained voters lost to the Brexit Party and it would have remained a hung parliament, Brexit would still not be done and Corbyn would still be Labour leader instead of the landslide victory Boris win.

    The key thing now is most Tory members prefer Sunak to Truss, so if Tory MPs crown Sunak by coronation to save some of their seats most Tory members won't complain

    (Added emphasis)

    Would this not actually be a better position for the Tory party today?
    If Jeremy Corbyn had become Prime Minister in May 2022 would that have been better?

    No, heck no, a million times no.
    God, no. I meant a Tory gov just short of the votes - [ETA: with an opportunity to split Labour with policy that meant siding with Corbyn's loonies or abstaining on sensible proposals and letting them through].
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    edited October 18
    Driver said:

    kamski said:

    Perhaps they should pilot voter ID in Tower Hamlets? See what happens. Is there a problem? Is it a load of fuss about nothing?

    When anyone says "There is no problem with X, in voting", I think back to my old flat mate who had his vote stolen in Tower Hamlets.

    When he went to the police to report this

    - They told him it wasn't a crime
    - Told him not to waste time on it
    - Eventually took a statement
    - Got upset because he wouldn't sign the statement, since it was full of stuff he hadn't said. Including some rather extreme stuff.
    - Eventually re-wrote the statement to match what had actually said and had happened.

    It took him most of day to get a crime number.

    Almost as if they were trying not to find electoral fraud, or something....
    It's just a bit funny that the Conservatives have been in power for 12 long years, you'd think they would have made a little bit of an effort to find evidence (if it exists) of the kind of electoral fraud that would justify introducing photo ID for voting, as it is a change to the voting system that does not have cross-party support.
    The Electoral Commission supports it, how much more evidence do you need?
    They don't support it - what they actual say is https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/our-views-and-research/elections-act/requirement-show-id-polling-stations

    It is important that the UK’s electoral system is both secure and accessible.

    There are already checks in place to confirm a voter’s identity if they are voting by post. But there are no similar checks in place at polling stations in Great Britain to prevent someone claiming to be someone else and voting in their name. This makes polling station voting in Great Britain vulnerable to fraud.

    The UK has very low levels of proven electoral fraud, and voters should feel confident about their vote. But we know from our public opinion research that it is an issue that concerns some voters. Two-thirds of people say they would feel more confident in the security of the voting system if there was a requirement to show ID.

    And that being shown the polling cards sent to voters is sufficient in their eyes
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    HYUFD said:

    If Hunt had led the Tories at the last general election he would not have remained voters lost to the Brexit Party and it would have remained a hung parliament, Brexit would still not be done and Corbyn would still be Labour leader instead of the landslide victory Boris win.

    The key thing now is most Tory members prefer Sunak to Truss, so if Tory MPs crown Sunak by coronation to save some of their seats most Tory members won't complain

    If Hunt had won the 2019 Tory leadership election, then I think Jeremy Corbyn would have become Prime Minister following the May 2022 election.

    Hunt wouldn't have had the confrontation with Parliament that Boris did, wouldn't have regained the lost votes, wouldn't have had an early election, and would have extended Article 50 into 2020 . . . and then the pandemic would have struck with Brexit still not "done".
    And we'd all have spent time in Hunts quarantine camps. He'd have been less popular than Truss
  • mwadams said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Triple lock going apparently !

    A good move, but it looks like the Tories have thrown in the towel for the next election.

    I think this is very encouraging - is Hunt calculating that the Tories have lost, and so he can/should do what is actually best for the country's long term position?
    If the Triple Lock goes, along with the Health and Social Care Levy going, then Truss will have done two very good things.

    Now merge NI into Income Tax so all incomes, earned and unearned, are taxed evenly and trigger a housing market crash and the Tories can head into opposition having sorted out the biggest problems in the economy.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: None of Liz Truss's cabinet suggested she should quit at their 90-minute long meeting this morning - PM's official spokesman.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1582349662073208832

    When that’s what you’re having to respond with after a cabinet meeting then you should have the good grace to know you’re f***ed.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 635

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🍛ARGY-BHAJI: Truss faces fresh peril as ‘Balti Bandit’ plotters meet for secret curry

    Mel Stride hosted more than a dozen "miserable" Conservative MPs in his large House of Commons office for an Indian takeaway - with the PM's fate also on the table...

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/20146923/tory-rebels-secret-curry-plot/

    She's for the dhan-sack. But who else can they tikka chance on?
    They need to pick someone good, or Beer Korma will win with a landslide.
    Poppadum replacement up and hope for the best..
    Will they choose a man, or go lassie?
  • Martin Baxter has published his latest Electoral Calculus prediction:

    Labour 507 seats (+304)
    Scottish National Party 52 seats (+4)
    Conservatives 48 seats (-317)
    Liberal Democrats 19 seats (+8)
    Plaid Cymru 4 seats (nc)
    Greens 1 seat (nc)
    NI 18 seats (nc)
    Speaker 1 seat (+1)

    Ian Blackford must be wetting himself with excitement.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: None of Liz Truss's cabinet suggested she should quit at their 90-minute long meeting this morning - PM's official spokesman.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1582349662073208832

    When that’s what you’re having to respond with after a cabinet meeting then you should have the good grace to know you’re f***ed.
    Nobody actually spoke to her, she just sat in the corner
This discussion has been closed.