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Tory members are revolting – politicalbetting.com
Tory members are revolting – politicalbetting.com
83% of Conservative party members say Liz Truss is doing badly as prime minister, including 55% who say "very badly"72% of those who voted for Truss at the leadership election say she is doing a bad jobhttps://t.co/KyjV1XbeNN pic.twitter.com/P685gEhNaG
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Something different for @Leon to worry about.
Risk of nuclear war: noisily over-publicized. Risk that a Republican House majority will trigger a US debt default and global financial crisis: dangerously under-estimated.
https://mobile.twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1582330150405824512
Just let the MPs get on with it. When they make a mistake they can at least do something then about it quickly without worrying about the membership.
When he went to the police to report this
- They told him it wasn't a crime
- Told him not to waste time on it
- Eventually took a statement
- Got upset because he wouldn't sign the statement, since it was full of stuff he hadn't said. Including some rather extreme stuff.
- Eventually re-wrote the statement to match what had actually said and had happened.
It took him most of day to get a crime number.
Almost as if they were trying not to find electoral fraud, or something....
55% say she should resign, just 38% think she should stay
If Sunak-Truss were re-run, he'd win 55% to 25%
50% of Tory members do *not* want a say on the next PM
60% want a unity candidate
Among some Conservative MPs there is reluctance to remove Truss for fear of what their members would say/think
This polling strongly suggests that their members would say: crack on, please - and make the decision yourselves this time
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1582326938772787201
I still encounter people who are convinced that Corbyn is a life long Europhile and would have saved us from BREXIT, for example.
With swing back it is very, very tight indeed, certainly hung Parliament territory with quite possibly Labour on marginally most seats and a few percentage points ahead. It is all to play for.
Edited extra bit: caretaker/temporary leader does not count.
Our penalty was a penalty.
Nunez was offside for your first goal.
https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1582340030416052226
Many of its MPs are not signed up to this project, and I think they have to ask themselves whether they still owe the party members their loyalty, or whether they should abandon it before it crashes the whole country. The same question that many Labour MPs were asking under Corbyn, but this is much more urgent because the hijacking by extremists is more total, and the party is - at least on paper - in power.
https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/local-council/guardian-opinium-mrp-poll-every-tory-liz-truss-9334266
Anyway, on to Hunt, clearly the more operational figure. Many of us will have spent far too long yesterday watching the new chancellor’s already unsettling twitch of slightly opening his eyes in a slightly startled fashion, slightly more often than every five seconds. I really don’t want to think of Jeremy as a chess grandmaster whose moves are being dictated by the markets via vibrating anal beads. But since I have, you must too.
Mel Stride hosted more than a dozen "miserable" Conservative MPs in his large House of Commons office for an Indian takeaway - with the PM's fate also on the table...
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/20146923/tory-rebels-secret-curry-plot/
The issue with TM is that the Tories have to sign up to another May election campaign - when you are worried about wipeout not the most reassuring thought.
Jist is - that nothing can be done until Boris backs down and accepts that Sunak / someone else needs to be appointed leader and unless he does there will be a contested contest.
For those you need to go a step further and join the EEA.
🎖️The Princess Royal presents Daniel Craig with The Order of St Michael and St George - the same honour held by his character James Bond - in recognition of his outstanding contribution to film and theatre.
https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1582319162307018752/photo/1
Worth noting North Norfolk will gain bits of Great Yarmouth in boundary changes which serms to be the relatively best bit of rural/town Norfolk for the blues.
Broadland would cause me most concern if i were a Tory strategist, Chloe in Norwich North is gone whatever happens
RF certainly offered something important to Iran in exchange for the drones and the ballistic missile contract.
What do you think Iran got by agreeing to direct complicity in the mass murders of 🇺🇦?
1. Uranium and other materials
2. Nuclear technologies
3. Guarantees from RF
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1582345333887025152
I suspect local factors dominate my view.
*Of course, in fifteen years time when PM Truss finally retires after leading the UK and the Conservatives into the sunny uplands of Brexit, that 20% return will look rather paltry.
Even the Tories wouldn't make a porn star PM
That said I do think that he is hitting on something which is incredibly depressing but should really be predictable - Tory MPs are once again paralysed and can’t act. We saw this with Boris (which kept that show on the road far too long). Peston now talks about MPs starting to brief that they’ll give Truss till the statement on the 31st - just under 2 weeks away. That’s another 2 weeks of humiliation, chaos and psychodrama. That’s another 2 weeks of the public associating Truss’ failings with the Tory brand.
And once that’s over, there’ll be people saying to give her until the new year.
This delaying the inevitable does them no good.
That polling, which goes beyond the Remain/Leave or Good/Bad Brexit simplification, makes the public as a whole look more Eurosceptic than many of the Leavers here. The public might not be happy with Brexit but they sure as hell are not clamouring for rejoining the EU as it actually is.
But for Sir Keir to blow a majority from here would be the biggest failure in British politics since I dunno when, answers on a postcard.
The only reason there's not cross-party support is that the opposition parties would vehemently anything the Tories introduce, because its the Tories introducing it. If it were Keir Starmer who was introducing Tony Blair's rules nationwide, then a lot of those vehemently opposing supposed "Tory" electoral shenanigans wouldn't be making a peep of sound about it.
EDIT: And to be fair, in those circumstances, many Tories would instinctively oppose it, because it would be a Labour leader implementing Labour's own idea instead of a Tory doing it.
https://twitter.com/natashasrussia/status/1582343990531137537?s=20&t=a3J7rA94mw-1rnfruUvLug
I think that's right in principle, although I think you overstate the case. In fact I think the punters are a bit out but not in the way you suggest. I would have the price at 1.75, so a bit of value in back Labour Maj. but not a huge amount.
I recall winning shedloads in 1997 when despite the polls the bookies still had Major at 7/2. So bear in mind that 'swing-back' doesn't always happen, and as in 1997 you can get 'swing-more'.
There is no short-cut to figuring it out yourself, and backing accordingly.
The scorer of the winning goal that day? One Kenneth Dalglish...
* yes Boris got them a whopping majority, but in retrospect they set themselves up for "all this" when they chose him
The key thing now is most Tory members prefer Sunak to Truss, so if Tory MPs crown Sunak by coronation to save some of their seats most Tory members won't complain
DougSeal said:
» show previous quotes
“Alexa, define irony”
"Alexa what does arsehole mean" , Alexa " that mealy mouthed cretin ronseal"
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1582349662073208832
Hunt wouldn't have had the confrontation with Parliament that Boris did, wouldn't have regained the lost votes, wouldn't have had an early election, and would have extended Article 50 into 2020 . . . and then the pandemic would have struck with Brexit still not "done".
A good move, but it looks like the Tories have thrown in the towel for the next election.
Would this not actually be a better position for the Tory party today?
No, heck no, a million times no.
Ultimately, I don't like these sorts of polls, because they don't represent what you'd get out of them by way a compromise candidate. If Yougov could produce, for party members, a ranked choice type of poll, perhaps we'd see a very different result coming to the fore.
For me, right now my ranked choices would be 1: Wallace, 2: Mordaunt, 3: Sunak, 4: Badenoch, 5: Hunt.
I would like to see the results of that sort of vote. I would also like to know how many of Mordaunt's backers among MPs would have split for Rishi and Liz. Nobody knows that, yet it's important for an informed choice for members who, among other things, really ought to be considering the ability of a candidate to produce a stable government. Overall, the entire leadership election process is deeply flawed because of these unanswerable questions that lead to insufficiently informed electorates - like me - making the wrong choice for leader.
PS. Despite his success in the past, Johnson is far too damaged right now to be a serious choice for return to No 10. He needs time for that to wear off and for reinvention - if he's capable of it. He could plausibly return if (when) the Tories lose the next general election and have gone through another different Howard-style leader, but does he have the patience for that?
Labour 507 seats (+304)
Scottish National Party 52 seats (+4)
Conservatives 48 seats (-317)
Liberal Democrats 19 seats (+8)
Plaid Cymru 4 seats (nc)
Greens 1 seat (nc)
NI 18 seats (nc)
Speaker 1 seat (+1)
There is actually no more reason to think Labour will blow it than there is to think the Tories will blow it a whole lot more.
Most voters instead support a closer relationship with Europe but still outside the EU or EEA
It is important that the UK’s electoral system is both secure and accessible.
There are already checks in place to confirm a voter’s identity if they are voting by post. But there are no similar checks in place at polling stations in Great Britain to prevent someone claiming to be someone else and voting in their name. This makes polling station voting in Great Britain vulnerable to fraud.
The UK has very low levels of proven electoral fraud, and voters should feel confident about their vote. But we know from our public opinion research that it is an issue that concerns some voters. Two-thirds of people say they would feel more confident in the security of the voting system if there was a requirement to show ID.
And that being shown the polling cards sent to voters is sufficient in their eyes
Now merge NI into Income Tax so all incomes, earned and unearned, are taxed evenly and trigger a housing market crash and the Tories can head into opposition having sorted out the biggest problems in the economy.