Theory doing the rounds that we’re set to see a lot of kites flown on cuts. Defence. Triple lock. NHS. And then Hunt turns round and says “Right. There you go, you didn’t like that did you. So you decide - it’s either welfare, or the pensioners, squaddies and nurses take the hit. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1582355565103050754
Whatever they settle on, we can look forward to Labour opportunistically opposing all the 'tory cuts', whilst also promising to 'balance the books';
Advantage of opposition. You can have your cake and eat it.
The last time Labour came to power without being gifted a golden economic situation was almost 50 years ago (1974). They hung on for one 5 year term of strife until ejected by Thatcher. If (when) Labour win the next General Election they are going to be ripped asunder by having to try to balance the books whilst dealing with the Unions.
Yes, the analogy between the mid 70's and the current period is very strong on a number of levels. Interestingly this was also around the time that we joined the EU.
So it looks like Putin is - so far - successfully doing what I said he would do. Relentlessly degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Via a new supply of drones/missiles
So it looks like Putin is - so far - successfully doing what I said he would do. Relentlessly degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Via a new supply of drones/missiles
This article explains what Wallace and Cleverly are doing in Washington. Discussing how to respond to Iranian involvement in this conflict.
Ukraine is apparently about to break diplomatic relations with Iran.
Chances are we get a strike on Iran's facilities (1) because it might be having a significant impact on Ukraine (I wouldn't take Zelensky's comments at face value but there are pictures of water queues and (2) with the Midterms coming up, it would be dire for the Ukrainians to be forced to the negotiating table because of the effects of drones. Far better to give the Iranians a smack. I do wonder whether it will come from Israel though.
Yet Norfolk SW was actually a Labour -held seat until 1964 when - against the national tide- it was gained by the Tories!
Lots of rural Norfolk was red, that all changed when the agricultural worker base vote faded away
Indeed so. North Norfolk was Labour until 1970. I find it surprising,however, that the Tories would lose Norfolk S but hang on to Norfolk SW.
Norfolk South would be next to drop after Broadland, both contain large chunks of suburban Norwich and voting patterns in those sections closer to Norwich city than the county. Truss has Thetford which is ripe for Labour but the rest is 'very' Tory, ditto NW outside Kings Lynn and Mid outwith Dereham
Of the Norfolk rural seats Labour's best prospect would likely be Norfolk NW which it won in 1997 - quite similar to the former Kings Lynn seat. South Norfolk last went Labour in 1945 - when Christopher Mayhew was elected.In recent decades only the LDs have been vaguely competitive there.Labour came fairly close - 2,000 or so - to unseating Gillian Shephard in Norfolk SW in 1997.
No, i disagree. Theres not much LD vote to work on anymore in NW and the Tories are in 65% compared to lower totals in Broadland and South. South Norfolk actually had an evenly split opposition in 2001 and 2005, in either year opposition votes coalescing would have led to it dropping. Its much more vulnersble than NW Norfolk at this time
But the former Kings Lynn seat was often a Tight marginal - the Tories won by 33 votes in 1970.NW Norfolk very close too in both 74 elections. Not sure how demographics have changed there.
Totally different tbh, 1970 the consituency was 'Kings Lynn', then in 74 that plus Wells and Walsingham (now in North Norfolk and Broadland), the current iteration is similar to that created in 1983 with a few changes. The parts outside Kings Lynn are enormously wealthy rural areas.
Theory doing the rounds that we’re set to see a lot of kites flown on cuts. Defence. Triple lock. NHS. And then Hunt turns round and says “Right. There you go, you didn’t like that did you. So you decide - it’s either welfare, or the pensioners, squaddies and nurses take the hit. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1582355565103050754
Whatever they settle on, we can look forward to Labour opportunistically opposing all the 'tory cuts', whilst also promising to 'balance the books';
Advantage of opposition. You can have your cake and eat it.
The last time Labour came to power without being gifted a golden economic situation was almost 50 years ago (1974). They hung on for one 5 year term of strife until ejected by Thatcher. If (when) Labour win the next General Election they are going to be ripped asunder by having to try to balance the books whilst dealing with the Unions.
I think there's more than a whiff of hopecasting there.
Labour could foster quicker growth simply by being rational viz a viz our relationship with the EU. This does not require EU, Efta or EEA membership – we can peg most/all of our regulations to those of the EU, thus reducing trade barriers. We can introduce a benign visa regime with the EU to help fill labour shortages.
Of course, such a sensible approach is seemingly outside the scope of the modern-day Tory Party, because being awkward with / beastly to our European friends is so core to what's left of their identity.
Perhaps they should pilot voter ID in Tower Hamlets? See what happens. Is there a problem? Is it a load of fuss about nothing?
When anyone says "There is no problem with X, in voting", I think back to my old flat mate who had his vote stolen in Tower Hamlets.
When he went to the police to report this
- They told him it wasn't a crime - Told him not to waste time on it - Eventually took a statement - Got upset because he wouldn't sign the statement, since it was full of stuff he hadn't said. Including some rather extreme stuff. - Eventually re-wrote the statement to match what had actually said and had happened.
It took him most of day to get a crime number.
Almost as if they were trying not to find electoral fraud, or something....
It's just a bit funny that the Conservatives have been in power for 12 long years, you'd think they would have made a little bit of an effort to find evidence (if it exists) of the kind of electoral fraud that would justify introducing photo ID for voting, as it is a change to the voting system that does not have cross-party support.
The Electoral Commission supports it, how much more evidence do you need?
It is important that the UK’s electoral system is both secure and accessible.
There are already checks in place to confirm a voter’s identity if they are voting by post. But there are no similar checks in place at polling stations in Great Britain to prevent someone claiming to be someone else and voting in their name. This makes polling station voting in Great Britain vulnerable to fraud.
The UK has very low levels of proven electoral fraud, and voters should feel confident about their vote. But we know from our public opinion research that it is an issue that concerns some voters. Two-thirds of people say they would feel more confident in the security of the voting system if there was a requirement to show ID.
And that being shown the polling cards sent to voters is sufficient in their eyes
I can't find the phrase "polling card" on that page, can you quote the exact wording that you've paraphrased in bold? Also, as the bit not in bold is a direct quote, your comment does risk being a trifle misleading.
"Alternatively, it could involve allowing voters to use their poll card – on the current model or a different model – as the primary or secondary route to proving identity, depending on the level of security required."
Yes, I suggested that a photo could be printed on the polling card. As written it doesn't seem too enthusiastic about the idea that the current pollig card could be the primary method of identification, which seems to be the way you interpreted it, but maybe that's just a matter of opinion.
Theory doing the rounds that we’re set to see a lot of kites flown on cuts. Defence. Triple lock. NHS. And then Hunt turns round and says “Right. There you go, you didn’t like that did you. So you decide - it’s either welfare, or the pensioners, squaddies and nurses take the hit. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1582355565103050754
Whatever they settle on, we can look forward to Labour opportunistically opposing all the 'tory cuts', whilst also promising to 'balance the books';
Advantage of opposition. You can have your cake and eat it.
The last time Labour came to power without being gifted a golden economic situation was almost 50 years ago (1974). They hung on for one 5 year term of strife until ejected by Thatcher. If (when) Labour win the next General Election they are going to be ripped asunder by having to try to balance the books whilst dealing with the Unions.
Yes, the analogy between the mid 70's and the current period is very strong on a number of levels. Interestingly this was also around the time that we joined the EU.
Labour will have absolutely no difficulty balancing the books if they extend NI to all earnings and introduce a land value or similar wealth tax.
It absolutely does my head in that all that is being spoken of is 'which cuts are going to be made'. Public services are on their arse due to years of 'efficiency savings' and other cuts. If people vote Labour they are voting for better public services, among other things.
Rich pensioners, BTL rentiers, people living off inherited wealth and those squirrelling away millions so that their descendants can enjoy idle luxury are going to have to suck it up.
If Hunt had led the Tories at the last general election he would not have remained voters lost to the Brexit Party and it would have remained a hung parliament, Brexit would still not be done and Corbyn would still be Labour leader instead of the landslide victory Boris win.
The key thing now is most Tory members prefer Sunak to Truss, so if Tory MPs crown Sunak by coronation to save some of their seats most Tory members won't complain
(Added emphasis)
Would this not actually be a better position for the Tory party today?
Only if the Brexit Party had not by now overtaken them in the polls again, as they briefly did in Spring 2019, given Brexit would still not have got done.
Corbyn still Labour leader not Starmer also bad for the country
Another counterfactual opinion stated as though it is fact. Total bollox in other words
No it was fact, no polling in 2019 had Hunt winning a majority unlike Boris.
Remember Boris only won the leadership as the May and Hunt (Foreign Secretary at the time) Tories had fallen to 3rd place in some polls.
See this May 2019 Opinium poll which had Labour on 29%, the Brexit Party on 24% and Tories on 22%
You are obsessed with polls but clearly don't use their evidence advisedly. If Hunt had been PM/leader he would have had the opportunity to convince the voters of his competence, just as certainly as Truss has shown how crap she is and Johnson demonstrated his dishonesty. The polls you refer to are not fact, they are conjecture. You should try and understand the difference.
Your judgement is very flawed.
If Hunt had been PM he would not have regained any Tory votes lost to the Brexit Party as Boris had done and we may even have ended up with a Corbyn minority government at the December 2019 general election
That is your opinion, and in a parallel universe it might be true, but then again it is probably bollox. Let's get this straight. You are a blind follower of the most dishonest and inappropriate person ever to hold high office in this country, so one must accept that you find dishonesty and incompetence acceptable, which is for your conscience, but I find it difficult to see how that squares with your stated religeous belief and values. Added to that your political analysis is highly simplistic and your judgement clearly highly flawed.
I said Boris would beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit in early 2019 and he did both by Christmas. Nothing more needs to be said
Oh my God, you are Nostradamus and I claim my £5. You are a fucking genius. How did you ever work that one out? I mean Corbyn, that electoral colossus who had the appeal of JFK and the oratorical abilities of Marcus Cicero. However did "Boris", the Poundshop Churchill achieve this remarkable victory against such a magnificent adversary. And you! You predicted it all. You have my undying admiration.
You can save your fiver. From a Scottish perspective, with NI across the North Channel, 'deliver Brexit' is unfulfilled nonsense [edited].
The question remains the one I asked @HYUFD earlier on and then the Telegraph asked rhetorically afterwards.
What exactly do you believe in if you are a Tory these days.
Your party has performed a 180 degree change in policy so what kind of political beliefs do you hold if you supported them after the mini-budget and you support them now.
🇺🇦 will officially ask 🇮🇱 for the transfer of air defense systems, - Foreign Minister Kuleba.
🗣 "Today a note will be sent to 🇮🇱 with a request to immediately provide 🇺🇦 with air defense systems and begin highquality cooperation in obtaining appropriate technology for Ukraine" https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1582364417630818305
So it looks like Putin is - so far - successfully doing what I said he would do. Relentlessly degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Via a new supply of drones/missiles
So it looks like Putin is - so far - successfully doing what I said he would do. Relentlessly degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Via a new supply of drones/missiles
Where? From Belarus? Through Europe's largest marsh?
The Ukrainian military won't be much impacted - they can and do run off generators. The Ukrainian people will be badly hit. But how many years before they are ground down and say "OK, Putin, you win. We surrender....."? Not happening. They will just become ever more resourceful.
The question remains the one I asked @HYUFD earlier on and then the Telegraph asked rhetorically afterwards.
What exactly do you believe in if you are a Tory these days.
Your party has performed a 180 degree change in policy so what kind of political beliefs do you hold if you supported them after the mini-budget and you support them now.
Fiscal responsibility again, not pure libertarianism, the monarchy, choice, maintaining Brexit etc.
Labour also now backs Brexit, sings God Save the King and has promised fiscal responsibility too
So it looks like Putin is - so far - successfully doing what I said he would do. Relentlessly degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Via a new supply of drones/missiles
A housing crash does not help buyers much if it is more difficult for them to get a mortgage, as it would be
If this hypothetical buyer has saved a deposit, it becomes relatively bigger with every fall in prices, so not only do they need to borrow a smaller amount of money, but their loan-to-value ratio also gets better. It's absolutely perverse to argue that people can't benefit from paying less for something.
They're not paying less for it if interest rates have risen. Nor is your assumption that the saved deposit would be sufficient correct; in a falling market, mortgage suppliers will demand a larger cushion. And in any case, in a falling market sellers takes their properties off the market, and new houses get built in smaller numbers.
Like the stock market, housing is not at all a simple classical market where behaviour responds to price signals in the obvious way.
To take an extreme example, if someone has a 50% deposit and prices fall 50%, they become a cash buyer. Prices are set at the margins and even if the volume falls, transactions still take place and buyers are better placed, hence the expression "a buyer's market".
More precisely, transactions still take place and some buyers are better placed. In practice those buyers are those with cash who are able to take a very long term view and not worry about negative equity. What you're missing is that this is a dynamic market: behaviour depends a huge amount on expectations about future price moves, as well as (crucially) the expectations of mortgage lenders.
On the other side of the coin, there are some huge losers: mostly young families pushed into negative equity at a time of rising interest rates.
There is also the knock-on effect on the economy: housing transactions are a big driver of economic activity, and so the fall in volumes which is associated with big price drops is in itself a very negative factor. It also hits labour mobility.
Basically you don't wont to go there, which is why governments of all stripes take measures to support prices when a big drop looks imminent - eg the Labour government in 2008.
Excellent post.
Further to your penultimate paragraph, I don't have the data to hand but I'd bet that aggregate householders' investment in improving their properties falls in a falling housing market too. Converting your loft is far less attractive if the value gain it offers is swallowed up by falling house prices.
The Conservatives are in mess. The 81,326 members who voted for Liz Truss know they were fooled, but 60,399 can happily say they were right to vote for Rishi Sunak. If the MPs give them anyone other than Rishi to be crowned they will be justified in crying foul.
The wider electorate will not forgive Truss for this mess and there will be no scope for tax cuts before the end of 2024 -the latest date to call the election. The sooner they put Rishi in as PM the sooner they will be able to start to rebuild but would he lose some substantial bits of the membership and electorate to Farage or the Stay at Home party.
The question remains the one I asked @HYUFD earlier on and then the Telegraph asked rhetorically afterwards.
What exactly do you believe in if you are a Tory these days.
Your party has performed a 180 degree change in policy so what kind of political beliefs do you hold if you supported them after the mini-budget and you support them now.
Fiscal responsibility again, not pure libertarianism, the monarchy, choice, maintaining Brexit etc
'People could die because of Thérèse Coffey’s “ultra-libertarian ideological” reluctance to crack down on smoking and obesity, a Conservative ex-health minister has warned.
The strongly worded criticism of the health secretary came from Dr Dan Poulter, a Tory MP and NHS doctor who served as a health minister in the coalition government from 2012 to 2015.
Poulter claims Coffey’s “hostility to what the extreme right call ‘nanny statism’” is stopping her from taking firm action against the “major killers” of tobacco and bad diet.
[...]
The government’s widely anticipated scrapping of measures to curb obesity such as the sugar tax and ditching of the tobacco control plan and health inequalities white paper – both of which previous health ministers had promised to publish – have led Poulter to brand Coffey’s stance “deeply alarming”'
The question remains the one I asked @HYUFD earlier on and then the Telegraph asked rhetorically afterwards.
What exactly do you believe in if you are a Tory these days.
Your party has performed a 180 degree change in policy so what kind of political beliefs do you hold if you supported them after the mini-budget and you support them now.
That depends on you being in agreement with the Truss/Kwarteng budget.
You can still believe in the policy of three months ago and today, and think the two-week aberration was "WTF????"
So it looks like Putin is - so far - successfully doing what I said he would do. Relentlessly degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Via a new supply of drones/missiles
yes and he wants to degrade ukrainian army supply lines. Since the breakthrough a few weeks ago ukrainian advances appear to have stalled.
There seems to be something interesting happening around Kherson.....
EDIT: Re-reading Red Storm Rising. Clancy really did get so much right
- Russia logistics suck - Their armoured warfare bogs down with man portable AT weapons blunting every advance. - "Robots" own the sky over the battlefield, with aircraft having a very short life expectancy - Corruption in the Russian system reducing military effectiveness. - Higher ammo expenditure than expected. - etc
A housing crash does not help buyers much if it is more difficult for them to get a mortgage, as it would be
If this hypothetical buyer has saved a deposit, it becomes relatively bigger with every fall in prices, so not only do they need to borrow a smaller amount of money, but their loan-to-value ratio also gets better. It's absolutely perverse to argue that people can't benefit from paying less for something.
They're not paying less for it if interest rates have risen. Nor is your assumption that the saved deposit would be sufficient correct; in a falling market, mortgage suppliers will demand a larger cushion. And in any case, in a falling market sellers takes their properties off the market, and new houses get built in smaller numbers.
Like the stock market, housing is not at all a simple classical market where behaviour responds to price signals in the obvious way.
To take an extreme example, if someone has a 50% deposit and prices fall 50%, they become a cash buyer. Prices are set at the margins and even if the volume falls, transactions still take place and buyers are better placed, hence the expression "a buyer's market".
More precisely, transactions still take place and some buyers are better placed. In practice those buyers are those with cash who are able to take a very long term view and not worry about negative equity. What you're missing is that this is a dynamic market: behaviour depends a huge amount on expectations about future price moves, as well as (crucially) the expectations of mortgage lenders.
On the other side of the coin, there are some huge losers: mostly young families pushed into negative equity at a time of rising interest rates.
There is also the knock-on effect on the economy: housing transactions are a big driver of economic activity, and so the fall in volumes which is associated with big price drops is in itself a very negative factor. It also hits labour mobility.
Basically you don't wont to go there, which is why governments of all stripes take measures to support prices when a big drop looks imminent - eg the Labour government in 2008.
John Major's government didn't take measures to support prices, and that was the right thing. We had stronger per-capita growth towards the end of his government than we had under Brown or Osborne.
By trying to make property a one-way bet forever, we have created the very stagnation that you think those policies were helping to avoid.
The question remains the one I asked @HYUFD earlier on and then the Telegraph asked rhetorically afterwards.
What exactly do you believe in if you are a Tory these days.
Your party has performed a 180 degree change in policy so what kind of political beliefs do you hold if you supported them after the mini-budget and you support them now.
So it looks like Putin is - so far - successfully doing what I said he would do. Relentlessly degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Via a new supply of drones/missiles
Why the question mark, Leondamus? The other day you said an invasion from Belarus was inevitable.
I never said it was inevitable. I said it was probable. And that it made sense from Putin’s perspective, and that it could actually win the war for him, by conventional means (tho it would still be highly difficult - for him). And I can’t see any OTHER way he can win. All roads lead to defeat
And for my pains I was shouted down by a host of PB-ers telling me “he hasn’t got the missiles”, “he’s never going to invade again”, “he’s just sending troops in to police Minsk”, “he’s only doing these troop movements so he can get cheaper borscht for his soldiers”
Iran has promised to provide Russia with surface to surface missiles, in addition to more drones, two senior Iranian officials and two Iranian diplomats tell Reuters
That sounds like one of those things deliberately designed to produce the opposite result to the apparent aim. As in show that she has little support left in the broader party.
Teresa May last price matched 18. Back/Lay range 14-30.
Just as an aside, it is Theresa May... with an aitch (or haitch.... who knows). If you search Teresa May, whilst it now does default to 'Theresa May' (at least for my search results), about twenty years ago you would've got a completely different Teresa May.
Twenty years ago you’d have got a completely different May if you’d searched on Theresa.
Iran has promised to provide Russia with surface to surface missiles, in addition to more drones, two senior Iranian officials and two Iranian diplomats tell Reuters
Iran has promised to provide Russia with surface to surface missiles, in addition to more drones, two senior Iranian officials and two Iranian diplomats tell Reuters
Iran has promised to provide Russia with surface to surface missiles, in addition to more drones, two senior Iranian officials and two Iranian diplomats tell Reuters
Fireworks were thrown towards Just Stop Oil protesters who scaled the Dartford Crossing and forced road closures on Monday.
The protesters scaled the Queen Elizabeth II bridge linking Essex to Kent in the early hours of Monday morning, climbing up the 275ft masts and securing themselves to the structure with climbing ropes and harnesses.
Marcus, a 33-year-old teacher from London, and Morgan Trowland, a 39-year-old bridge engineer, had vowed to stay there and keep the bridge closed for 24 hours.
A video posted online shows fireworks thrown in the protesters' direction on Monday evening.
The protesters remain on the bridge and the road is still closed.
So it looks like Putin is - so far - successfully doing what I said he would do. Relentlessly degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Via a new supply of drones/missiles
So it looks like Putin is - so far - successfully doing what I said he would do. Relentlessly degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Via a new supply of drones/missiles
yes and he wants to degrade ukrainian army supply lines. Since the breakthrough a few weeks ago ukrainian advances appear to have stalled.
There seems to be something interesting happening around Kherson.....
EDIT: Re-reading Red Storm Rising. Clancy really did get so much right
- Russia logistics suck - Their armoured warfare bogs down with man portable AT weapons blunting every advance. - "Robots" own the sky over the battlefield, with aircraft having a very short life expectancy - Corruption in the Russian system reducing military effectiveness. - Higher ammo expenditure than expected. - etc
I've been listening to a lot of interviews with Clancy recently. In interviews made during the 1980s and early 1990s, he comes across as a boy in a sweetshop, barely believing his luck (and admitting that a healthy dose of his success was down to luck).
As time goes on, he seems to become increasingly right-wing and belligerent. And sometimes perhaps even nasty.
It's quite fascinating how people change over time.
Iran has promised to provide Russia with surface to surface missiles, in addition to more drones, two senior Iranian officials and two Iranian diplomats tell Reuters
Iran has promised to provide Russia with surface to surface missiles, in addition to more drones, two senior Iranian officials and two Iranian diplomats tell Reuters
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Iran has promised to provide Russia with surface to surface missiles, in addition to more drones, two senior Iranian officials and two Iranian diplomats tell Reuters
Iran has promised to provide Russia with surface to surface missiles, in addition to more drones, two senior Iranian officials and two Iranian diplomats tell Reuters
Iran has promised to provide Russia with surface to surface missiles, in addition to more drones, two senior Iranian officials and two Iranian diplomats tell Reuters
Criminals have been exploiting the growing backlog in court cases by pleading not guilty instead of admitting their offences in an attempt to avoid conviction
The government’s widely anticipated scrapping of measures to curb obesity such as the sugar tax and ditching of the tobacco control plan and health inequalities white paper – both of which previous health ministers had promised to publish – have led Poulter to brand Coffey’s stance “deeply alarming”'
I was genuinely hoping Truss would indeed scrap the hated sugar tax, but given Hunt cooked it up with Osborne and it falls under his brief I doubt that will happen now. It's just another reason there is zero point keeping Truss around.
So it looks like Putin is - so far - successfully doing what I said he would do. Relentlessly degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Via a new supply of drones/missiles
Why the question mark, Leondamus? The other day you said an invasion from Belarus was inevitable.
I never said it was inevitable. I said it was probable. And that it made sense from Putin’s perspective, and that it could actually win the war for him, by conventional means (tho it would still be highly difficult - for him). And I can’t see any OTHER way he can win. All roads lead to defeat
And for my pains I was shouted down by a host of PB-ers telling me “he hasn’t got the missiles”, “he’s never going to invade again”, “he’s just sending troops in to police Minsk”, “he’s only doing these troop movements so he can get cheaper borscht for his soldiers”
No idea how probable it is, seems more likely to be just rotating/sending recruits for training, while hoping it distracts Ukraine a bit.
However, if (as some have said) hardline critics within Russia have called for another invasion from Belarus, I suppose Putin could allow them to have their way. If it leads to an improbable victory he will claim credit as a military genius. If it is a dismal failure he'll blame the hardliners, have them arrested for discrediting the Russian military, purge his most dangerous internal critics, a few of them will have unlikely "accidents". Then declare "mission accomplished", a ceasefire and try to freeze the frontline round about where it is now (probably have to give up Kherson). Then try to portray Ukraine as the ones against peace.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
dont worry mate the russians are monitoring this forum lol
The government’s widely anticipated scrapping of measures to curb obesity such as the sugar tax and ditching of the tobacco control plan and health inequalities white paper – both of which previous health ministers had promised to publish – have led Poulter to brand Coffey’s stance “deeply alarming”'
I was genuinely hoping Truss would indeed scrap the hated sugar tax, but given Hunt cooked it up with Osborne and it falls under his brief I doubt that will happen now. It's just another reason there is zero point keeping Truss around.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Yes apparently Putin thought that Liz Truss was going to be a huge success as PM.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Hearing the Russian military are using what.three.words to guide their missiles.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies and state of the art weapons to Ukraine
Criminals have been exploiting the growing backlog in court cases by pleading not guilty instead of admitting their offences in an attempt to avoid conviction
The government’s widely anticipated scrapping of measures to curb obesity such as the sugar tax and ditching of the tobacco control plan and health inequalities white paper – both of which previous health ministers had promised to publish – have led Poulter to brand Coffey’s stance “deeply alarming”'
I was genuinely hoping Truss would indeed scrap the hated sugar tax, but given Hunt cooked it up with Osborne and it falls under his brief I doubt that will happen now. It's just another reason there is zero point keeping Truss around.
The sugar tax and the plastic bag tax have both just given companies an excuse to take the piss. Sadly, I think both are well-enough established that even if reversed, they wouldn't go back to the status quo ante.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Yes apparently Putin thought that Liz Truss was going to be a huge success as PM.
liz Truss is a secret Russian asset you see sent to destroy the uk
Iran has promised to provide Russia with surface to surface missiles, in addition to more drones, two senior Iranian officials and two Iranian diplomats tell Reuters
So it looks like Putin is - so far - successfully doing what I said he would do. Relentlessly degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Via a new supply of drones/missiles
yes and he wants to degrade ukrainian army supply lines. Since the breakthrough a few weeks ago ukrainian advances appear to have stalled.
There seems to be something interesting happening around Kherson.....
EDIT: Re-reading Red Storm Rising. Clancy really did get so much right
- Russia logistics suck - Their armoured warfare bogs down with man portable AT weapons blunting every advance. - "Robots" own the sky over the battlefield, with aircraft having a very short life expectancy - Corruption in the Russian system reducing military effectiveness. - Higher ammo expenditure than expected. - etc
I've been listening to a lot of interviews with Clancy recently. In interviews made during the 1980s and early 1990s, he comes across as a boy in a sweetshop, barely believing his luck (and admitting that a healthy dose of his success was down to luck).
As time goes on, he seems to become increasingly right-wing and belligerent. And sometimes perhaps even nasty.
It's quite fascinating how people change over time.
Yup - he went Trump before going Trump was a thing.
Which is why I argue that what people said and saw about Putin 20 years may not have been wrong. Putin today is very different from Putin 20 years ago, I think.
My, I wonder what particular heap of gash brought that to mind? Not to mention threats to the environment.
'The longer the fire is left to rage, the greater the danger to the integrity of the skip, as the metal starts to warp and twist out of shape, beyond all recognition, eventually becoming completely unusable.
I am deeply committed to protecting our environment and our beautiful country. I firmly believe that we need tackle dumpster fires when they occur, regardless of how messy or unappealing this may be.
Indeed, the act of extinguishing the flames could well be the end of the skip they originated in. But urgent action is necessary nevertheless.'
The question remains the one I asked @HYUFD earlier on and then the Telegraph asked rhetorically afterwards.
What exactly do you believe in if you are a Tory these days.
Your party has performed a 180 degree change in policy so what kind of political beliefs do you hold if you supported them after the mini-budget and you support them now.
Fiscal responsibility again, not pure libertarianism, the monarchy, choice, maintaining Brexit etc
'People could die because of Thérèse Coffey’s “ultra-libertarian ideological” reluctance to crack down on smoking and obesity, a Conservative ex-health minister has warned.
The strongly worded criticism of the health secretary came from Dr Dan Poulter, a Tory MP and NHS doctor who served as a health minister in the coalition government from 2012 to 2015.
Poulter claims Coffey’s “hostility to what the extreme right call ‘nanny statism’” is stopping her from taking firm action against the “major killers” of tobacco and bad diet.
[...]
The government’s widely anticipated scrapping of measures to curb obesity such as the sugar tax and ditching of the tobacco control plan and health inequalities white paper – both of which previous health ministers had promised to publish – have led Poulter to brand Coffey’s stance “deeply alarming”'
Coffey wants to present herself as a role model for the health of the nation.
A housing crash does not help buyers much if it is more difficult for them to get a mortgage, as it would be
If this hypothetical buyer has saved a deposit, it becomes relatively bigger with every fall in prices, so not only do they need to borrow a smaller amount of money, but their loan-to-value ratio also gets better. It's absolutely perverse to argue that people can't benefit from paying less for something.
I wish I could like this twice.
Why? It's just wrong. I am in favour of a fall in house prices, but LTV ratio change in practice doesn't help in the very common situation where ltv is 75%, then price falls so it is suddenly 66%, hurrah, but lenders are shell-shocked into limiting it to 50% so won't lend at 66% where they would have lent at 75%.
Theory doing the rounds that we’re set to see a lot of kites flown on cuts. Defence. Triple lock. NHS. And then Hunt turns round and says “Right. There you go, you didn’t like that did you. So you decide - it’s either welfare, or the pensioners, squaddies and nurses take the hit. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1582355565103050754
Whatever they settle on, we can look forward to Labour opportunistically opposing all the 'tory cuts', whilst also promising to 'balance the books';
Advantage of opposition. You can have your cake and eat it.
The last time Labour came to power without being gifted a golden economic situation was almost 50 years ago (1974). They hung on for one 5 year term of strife until ejected by Thatcher. If (when) Labour win the next General Election they are going to be ripped asunder by having to try to balance the books whilst dealing with the Unions.
Is Suella the new Maggie then, if Rishi takes over as PM from Truss before Christmas, loses the next general election but saves a few seats and Suella becomes Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer?
So it looks like Putin is - so far - successfully doing what I said he would do. Relentlessly degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Via a new supply of drones/missiles
yes and he wants to degrade ukrainian army supply lines. Since the breakthrough a few weeks ago ukrainian advances appear to have stalled.
There seems to be something interesting happening around Kherson.....
EDIT: Re-reading Red Storm Rising. Clancy really did get so much right
- Russia logistics suck
- Their armoured warfare bogs down with man portable AT weapons blunting every advance. - "Robots" own the sky over the battlefield, with aircraft having a very short life expectancy - Corruption in the Russian system reducing military effectiveness. - Higher ammo expenditure than expected. - etc
The question remains the one I asked @HYUFD earlier on and then the Telegraph asked rhetorically afterwards.
What exactly do you believe in if you are a Tory these days.
Your party has performed a 180 degree change in policy so what kind of political beliefs do you hold if you supported them after the mini-budget and you support them now.
Fiscal responsibility again, not pure libertarianism, the monarchy, choice, maintaining Brexit etc
'People could die because of Thérèse Coffey’s “ultra-libertarian ideological” reluctance to crack down on smoking and obesity, a Conservative ex-health minister has warned.
The strongly worded criticism of the health secretary came from Dr Dan Poulter, a Tory MP and NHS doctor who served as a health minister in the coalition government from 2012 to 2015.
Poulter claims Coffey’s “hostility to what the extreme right call ‘nanny statism’” is stopping her from taking firm action against the “major killers” of tobacco and bad diet.
[...]
The government’s widely anticipated scrapping of measures to curb obesity such as the sugar tax and ditching of the tobacco control plan and health inequalities white paper – both of which previous health ministers had promised to publish – have led Poulter to brand Coffey’s stance “deeply alarming”'
Coffey wants to present herself as a role model for the health of the nation.
I must admit the idea of dosing one's friends with an incomplete course of possibly toxic and (quite separately) out of date leftover random antibiotics, which might react with one's dinner glass of wine without warning, is an interestign attempt to laicise the powers reserved to such eminent figures as Dr B. Adams and Dr H. Shipman.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
A housing crash does not help buyers much if it is more difficult for them to get a mortgage, as it would be
If this hypothetical buyer has saved a deposit, it becomes relatively bigger with every fall in prices, so not only do they need to borrow a smaller amount of money, but their loan-to-value ratio also gets better. It's absolutely perverse to argue that people can't benefit from paying less for something.
I wish I could like this twice.
Why? It's just wrong. I am in favour of a fall in house prices, but LTV ratio change in practice doesn't help in the very common situation where ltv is 75%, then price falls so it is suddenly 66%, hurrah, but lenders are shell-shocked into limiting it to 50% so won't lend at 66% where they would have lent at 75%.
I'd rather borrow less at a higher rate than have to borrow big and hope rates stay low.
'rates were so much higher back in the day'
Forgetting mortgages were 2-2.5x incomes not 5-6 as they are now.
So it looks like Putin is - so far - successfully doing what I said he would do. Relentlessly degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Via a new supply of drones/missiles
yes and he wants to degrade ukrainian army supply lines. Since the breakthrough a few weeks ago ukrainian advances appear to have stalled.
There seems to be something interesting happening around Kherson.....
EDIT: Re-reading Red Storm Rising. Clancy really did get so much right
- Russia logistics suck
- Their armoured warfare bogs down with man portable AT weapons blunting every advance. - "Robots" own the sky over the battlefield, with aircraft having a very short life expectancy - Corruption in the Russian system reducing military effectiveness. - Higher ammo expenditure than expected. - etc
Haven't seen much - what seems to be happening?
Kherson - Russian panic. Ukraine have self imposed a blackout on media from the area.
Both are what happen previously, when things moved.
The question remains the one I asked @HYUFD earlier on and then the Telegraph asked rhetorically afterwards.
What exactly do you believe in if you are a Tory these days.
Your party has performed a 180 degree change in policy so what kind of political beliefs do you hold if you supported them after the mini-budget and you support them now.
Fiscal responsibility again, not pure libertarianism, the monarchy, choice, maintaining Brexit etc
'People could die because of Thérèse Coffey’s “ultra-libertarian ideological” reluctance to crack down on smoking and obesity, a Conservative ex-health minister has warned.
The strongly worded criticism of the health secretary came from Dr Dan Poulter, a Tory MP and NHS doctor who served as a health minister in the coalition government from 2012 to 2015.
Poulter claims Coffey’s “hostility to what the extreme right call ‘nanny statism’” is stopping her from taking firm action against the “major killers” of tobacco and bad diet.
[...]
The government’s widely anticipated scrapping of measures to curb obesity such as the sugar tax and ditching of the tobacco control plan and health inequalities white paper – both of which previous health ministers had promised to publish – have led Poulter to brand Coffey’s stance “deeply alarming”'
Coffey wants to present herself as a role model for the health of the nation.
I must admit the idea of dosing one's friends with an incomplete course of possibly toxic and (quite separately) out of date leftover random antibiotics, which might react with one's dinner glass of wine without warning, is an interesting attempt to laicise the powers reserved to such eminent figures as Dr B. Adams and Dr H. Shipman.
Bryan Adams is an FRPS, but I don't think he's a doctor...
Musk: If Russia is faced with the choice of losing Crimea or using battlefield nukes, they will choose the latter. We've already sanctioned/cutoff Russia is every possible way, so what more do they have left to lose? If we nuke Russia back, they will nuke us and then we have WW3.
Iran has promised to provide Russia with surface to surface missiles, in addition to more drones, two senior Iranian officials and two Iranian diplomats tell Reuters
Iran has promised to provide Russia with surface to surface missiles, in addition to more drones, two senior Iranian officials and two Iranian diplomats tell Reuters
A lot of what is happening with Russia, Iran and Belarus (to a degree) is giving off a lot of the vibes of the 1918 March offensive by the Germans ie a realisation they need to do everything now before the inevitable defeat kicks in. In 1918, it was the arrival of the American troops, in 2022 it's the constant supply of weapons to Ukraine plus the training of their troops.
Question is what the Iranians are getting in return given this has destroyed any goodwill they may have got in the EU. I do wonder whether the Russians have given them guarantees on quelling internal dissent.
The question remains the one I asked @HYUFD earlier on and then the Telegraph asked rhetorically afterwards.
What exactly do you believe in if you are a Tory these days.
Your party has performed a 180 degree change in policy so what kind of political beliefs do you hold if you supported them after the mini-budget and you support them now.
Fiscal responsibility again, not pure libertarianism, the monarchy, choice, maintaining Brexit etc.
Labour also now backs Brexit, sings God Save the King and has promised fiscal responsibility too
Iran has promised to provide Russia with surface to surface missiles, in addition to more drones, two senior Iranian officials and two Iranian diplomats tell Reuters
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
Just send Zelensky anti drone guns and some drones of his own.
We don't want WW3 with Putin but nor can we allow him to capture Kyiv either
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
i think you are right and i think that is Putins plan...
Musk: If Russia is faced with the choice of losing Crimea or using battlefield nukes, they will choose the latter. We've already sanctioned/cutoff Russia is every possible way, so what more do they have left to lose? If we nuke Russia back, they will nuke us and then we have WW3.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
They can be helped on the electricity side from the EU - remember they are now connected to the EU grid. We could also supply them with the temporary generators which are now often used when the main supply goes down either for planned maintenance or in an emergency.
Either way these attacks won't make Ukraine surrender. Quite the opposite, they will simply harden Ukrainian resolve. They are as pointless as Hitler's V1s and V2s were.
So it looks like Putin is - so far - successfully doing what I said he would do. Relentlessly degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Via a new supply of drones/missiles
yes and he wants to degrade ukrainian army supply lines. Since the breakthrough a few weeks ago ukrainian advances appear to have stalled.
There seems to be something interesting happening around Kherson.....
EDIT: Re-reading Red Storm Rising. Clancy really did get so much right
- Russia logistics suck
- Their armoured warfare bogs down with man portable AT weapons blunting every advance. - "Robots" own the sky over the battlefield, with aircraft having a very short life expectancy
- Corruption in the Russian system reducing military effectiveness. - Higher ammo expenditure than expected. - etc
Haven't seen much - what seems to be happening?
Kherson - Russian panic. Ukraine have self imposed a blackout on media from the area.
Both are what happen previously, when things moved.
That's interesting. The Russians must not be only low on ammunition but also basic stuff like food and medical supplies for their troops. There were some reports of troops shooting their commanders for refusing to surrender.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
I don't think they would ever surrender whilst western weapons are flowing. They know what happens to Russian occupied territories.
The question remains the one I asked @HYUFD earlier on and then the Telegraph asked rhetorically afterwards.
What exactly do you believe in if you are a Tory these days.
Your party has performed a 180 degree change in policy so what kind of political beliefs do you hold if you supported them after the mini-budget and you support them now.
Fiscal responsibility again, not pure libertarianism, the monarchy, choice, maintaining Brexit etc
'People could die because of Thérèse Coffey’s “ultra-libertarian ideological” reluctance to crack down on smoking and obesity, a Conservative ex-health minister has warned.
The strongly worded criticism of the health secretary came from Dr Dan Poulter, a Tory MP and NHS doctor who served as a health minister in the coalition government from 2012 to 2015.
Poulter claims Coffey’s “hostility to what the extreme right call ‘nanny statism’” is stopping her from taking firm action against the “major killers” of tobacco and bad diet.
[...]
The government’s widely anticipated scrapping of measures to curb obesity such as the sugar tax and ditching of the tobacco control plan and health inequalities white paper – both of which previous health ministers had promised to publish – have led Poulter to brand Coffey’s stance “deeply alarming”'
Coffey wants to present herself as a role model for the health of the nation.
I must admit the idea of dosing one's friends with an incomplete course of possibly toxic and (quite separately) out of date leftover random antibiotics, which might react with one's dinner glass of wine without warning, is an interesting attempt to laicise the powers reserved to such eminent figures as Dr B. Adams and Dr H. Shipman.
Bryan Adams is an FRPS, but I don't think he's a doctor...
Reference is to Bodkin Adams, who had a very interesting way of benefiting from his relationships with his patients.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
But that's coming from someone who in Ukraine's position would probably have surrendered every day for the last six months.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Bearing in mind how badly Putin is doing I can well believe he is taking your advice.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
They can be helped on the electricity side from the EU - remember they are now connected to the EU grid. We could also supply them with the temporary generators which are now often used when the main supply goes down either for planned maintenance or in an emergency.
Either way these attacks won't make Ukraine surrender. Quite the opposite, they will simply harden Ukrainian resolve. They are as pointless as Hitler's V1s and V2s were.
2400 moderate sized model airplanes doesn't win a war.
A housing crash does not help buyers much if it is more difficult for them to get a mortgage, as it would be
If this hypothetical buyer has saved a deposit, it becomes relatively bigger with every fall in prices, so not only do they need to borrow a smaller amount of money, but their loan-to-value ratio also gets better. It's absolutely perverse to argue that people can't benefit from paying less for something.
I wish I could like this twice.
Why? It's just wrong. I am in favour of a fall in house prices, but LTV ratio change in practice doesn't help in the very common situation where ltv is 75%, then price falls so it is suddenly 66%, hurrah, but lenders are shell-shocked into limiting it to 50% so won't lend at 66% where they would have lent at 75%.
I'd rather borrow less at a higher rate than have to borrow big and hope rates stay low.
'rates were so much higher back in the day'
Forgetting mortgages were 2-2.5x incomes not 5-6 as they are now.
Plus if you borrow a smaller income multiple at a higher rate, in five or so years' time, inflation will have eaten away at the principal and the monthly payments are likely to have fallen in real terms, whereas if you borrow a higher income multiple at a lower rate, in five or so years' time, the principal will still be huge, and your monthly payments could suddenly become unaffordable if rates revert to normal.
Ultra low rates have been poison for the economy and created a massive wealth transfer from the have-nots to the haves.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
They can be helped on the electricity side from the EU - remember they are now connected to the EU grid. We could also supply them with the temporary generators which are now often used when the main supply goes down either for planned maintenance or in an emergency.
Either way these attacks won't make Ukraine surrender. Quite the opposite, they will simply harden Ukrainian resolve. They are as pointless as Hitler's V1s and V2s were.
Imagining the new war will be just like the last war is a perennial mistake. You are doing it
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
They can be helped on the electricity side from the EU - remember they are now connected to the EU grid. We could also supply them with the temporary generators which are now often used when the main supply goes down either for planned maintenance or in an emergency.
Either way these attacks won't make Ukraine surrender. Quite the opposite, they will simply harden Ukrainian resolve. They are as pointless as Hitler's V1s and V2s were.
2400 moderate sized model airplanes doesn't win a war.
Do you know the payload? The V-1 had 850kg (and most of that would have been HE rather than casing, unlike a normal bomb).
Edit: comparison not entirely relevant: the V-1 was not guided except by a crude compass and timer.
A housing crash does not help buyers much if it is more difficult for them to get a mortgage, as it would be
If this hypothetical buyer has saved a deposit, it becomes relatively bigger with every fall in prices, so not only do they need to borrow a smaller amount of money, but their loan-to-value ratio also gets better. It's absolutely perverse to argue that people can't benefit from paying less for something.
I wish I could like this twice.
Why? It's just wrong. I am in favour of a fall in house prices, but LTV ratio change in practice doesn't help in the very common situation where ltv is 75%, then price falls so it is suddenly 66%, hurrah, but lenders are shell-shocked into limiting it to 50% so won't lend at 66% where they would have lent at 75%.
I'd rather borrow less at a higher rate than have to borrow big and hope rates stay low.
'rates were so much higher back in the day'
Forgetting mortgages were 2-2.5x incomes not 5-6 as they are now.
Plus if you borrow a smaller income multiple at a higher rate, in five or so years' time, inflation will have eaten away at the principal and the monthly payments are likely to have fallen in real terms, whereas if you borrow a higher income multiple at a lower rate, in five or so years' time, the principal will still be huge, and your monthly payments could suddenly become unaffordable if rates revert to normal.
Ultra low rates have been poison for the economy and created a massive wealth transfer from the have-nots to the haves.
Which will be temporary once prices revert to sane borrowing levels for more historic interest rates.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
They can be helped on the electricity side from the EU - remember they are now connected to the EU grid. We could also supply them with the temporary generators which are now often used when the main supply goes down either for planned maintenance or in an emergency.
Either way these attacks won't make Ukraine surrender. Quite the opposite, they will simply harden Ukrainian resolve. They are as pointless as Hitler's V1s and V2s were.
Imagining the new war will be just like the last war is a perennial mistake. You are doing it
If Fiona Hill is right that this is essentially WW3 already, the biggest unknown is how and when it will spill over to other countries directly.
It would be really helpful for Ukraine if the young people of Iran could overthrow the regime around about now. Because, if Putin has got access to an unrestricted supply of new Iranian drones - and the Guardian says he has stockpiled 2,400 already - that seriously changes the balance of military power in Ukraine. It means he CAN starve and freeze Ukraine through the winter, then take a weakened Kyiv from Belarus
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
Not provided we keep sending food supplies to Ukraine
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
They can be helped on the electricity side from the EU - remember they are now connected to the EU grid. We could also supply them with the temporary generators which are now often used when the main supply goes down either for planned maintenance or in an emergency.
Either way these attacks won't make Ukraine surrender. Quite the opposite, they will simply harden Ukrainian resolve. They are as pointless as Hitler's V1s and V2s were.
2400 moderate sized model airplanes doesn't win a war.
Do you know the payload? The V-1 had 850kg (and most of that would have been HE rather than casing, unlike a normal bomb).
Comments
Chances are we get a strike on Iran's facilities (1) because it might be having a significant impact on Ukraine (I wouldn't take Zelensky's comments at face value but there are pictures of water queues and (2) with the Midterms coming up, it would be dire for the Ukrainians to be forced to the negotiating table because of the effects of drones. Far better to give the Iranians a smack. I do wonder whether it will come from Israel though.
Labour could foster quicker growth simply by being rational viz a viz our relationship with the EU. This does not require EU, Efta or EEA membership – we can peg most/all of our regulations to those of the EU, thus reducing trade barriers. We can introduce a benign visa regime with the EU to help fill labour shortages.
Of course, such a sensible approach is seemingly outside the scope of the modern-day Tory Party, because being awkward with / beastly to our European friends is so core to what's left of their identity.
Yes, I suggested that a photo could be printed on the polling card. As written it doesn't seem too enthusiastic about the idea that the current pollig card could be the primary method of identification, which seems to be the way you interpreted it, but maybe that's just a matter of opinion.
It absolutely does my head in that all that is being spoken of is 'which cuts are going to be made'. Public services are on their arse due to years of 'efficiency savings' and other cuts. If people vote Labour they are voting for better public services, among other things.
Rich pensioners, BTL rentiers, people living off inherited wealth and those squirrelling away millions so that their descendants can enjoy idle luxury are going to have to suck it up.
What exactly do you believe in if you are a Tory these days.
Your party has performed a 180 degree change in policy so what kind of political beliefs do you hold if you supported them after the mini-budget and you support them now.
🗣 "Today a note will be sent to 🇮🇱 with a request to immediately provide 🇺🇦 with air defense systems and begin highquality cooperation in obtaining appropriate technology for Ukraine"
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1582364417630818305
Shocked
The Ukrainian military won't be much impacted - they can and do run off generators. The Ukrainian people will be badly hit. But how many years before they are ground down and say "OK, Putin, you win. We surrender....."? Not happening. They will just become ever more resourceful.
Labour also now backs Brexit, sings God Save the King and has promised fiscal responsibility too
Further to your penultimate paragraph, I don't have the data to hand but I'd bet that aggregate householders' investment in improving their properties falls in a falling housing market too. Converting your loft is far less attractive if the value gain it offers is swallowed up by falling house prices.
The wider electorate will not forgive Truss for this mess and there will be no scope for tax cuts before the end of 2024 -the latest date to call the election. The sooner they put Rishi in as PM the sooner they will be able to start to rebuild but would he lose some substantial bits of the membership and electorate to Farage or the Stay at Home party.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/18/tory-mp-therese-coffey-health-secretary-smoking-obesity
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/18/therese-coffey-ultra-libertarian-health-stance-risking-lives-tory-ex-minister-dan-poulter-warns
'People could die because of Thérèse Coffey’s “ultra-libertarian ideological” reluctance to crack down on smoking and obesity, a Conservative ex-health minister has warned.
The strongly worded criticism of the health secretary came from Dr Dan Poulter, a Tory MP and NHS doctor who served as a health minister in the coalition government from 2012 to 2015.
Poulter claims Coffey’s “hostility to what the extreme right call ‘nanny statism’” is stopping her from taking firm action against the “major killers” of tobacco and bad diet.
[...]
The government’s widely anticipated scrapping of measures to curb obesity such as the sugar tax and ditching of the tobacco control plan and health inequalities white paper – both of which previous health ministers had promised to publish – have led Poulter to brand Coffey’s stance “deeply alarming”'
You can still believe in the policy of three months ago and today, and think the two-week aberration was "WTF????"
EDIT: Re-reading Red Storm Rising. Clancy really did get so much right
- Russia logistics suck
- Their armoured warfare bogs down with man portable AT weapons blunting every advance.
- "Robots" own the sky over the battlefield, with aircraft having a very short life expectancy
- Corruption in the Russian system reducing military effectiveness.
- Higher ammo expenditure than expected.
- etc
By trying to make property a one-way bet forever, we have created the very stagnation that you think those policies were helping to avoid.
I never said it was inevitable. I said it was probable. And that it made sense from Putin’s perspective, and that it could actually win the war for him, by conventional means (tho it would still be highly difficult - for him). And I can’t see any OTHER way he can win. All roads lead to defeat
And for my pains I was shouted down by a host of PB-ers telling me “he hasn’t got the missiles”, “he’s never going to invade again”, “he’s just sending troops in to police Minsk”, “he’s only doing these troop movements so he can get cheaper borscht for
his soldiers”
But it doesn’t sound as though all are willing…
Rearguard action could backfire (and, one presumes, the letter would be shelved) if the signature count is noticeably low
https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1582368117598015489
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1582368633799340033?s=20&t=ZWY0R4f7sdPTOfHJnsVGVA
The protesters scaled the Queen Elizabeth II bridge linking Essex to Kent in the early hours of Monday morning, climbing up the 275ft masts and securing themselves to the structure with climbing ropes and harnesses.
Marcus, a 33-year-old teacher from London, and Morgan Trowland, a 39-year-old bridge engineer, had vowed to stay there and keep the bridge closed for 24 hours.
A video posted online shows fireworks thrown in the protesters' direction on Monday evening.
The protesters remain on the bridge and the road is still closed.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/18/removing-just-stop-oil-protesters-work-progress-say-police/
As time goes on, he seems to become increasingly right-wing and belligerent. And sometimes perhaps even nasty.
It's quite fascinating how people change over time.
USA! USA! USA! also play them.
Group B
UK and England = The Coalition of the Willing
Iran and Wales = Axis of Evil
I now believe Putin is reading PB, and taking my military advice
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ben-wallace-could-quit-cabinet-if-defencespending-pledge-ditched_uk_634e8ee9e4b04cf8f37c66c8
Criminals have been exploiting the growing backlog in court cases by pleading not guilty instead of admitting their offences in an attempt to avoid conviction
https://bit.ly/3zc8b3V
However, if (as some have said) hardline critics within Russia have called for another invasion from Belarus, I suppose Putin could allow them to have their way. If it leads to an improbable victory he will claim credit as a military genius. If it is a dismal failure he'll blame the hardliners, have them arrested for discrediting the Russian military, purge his most dangerous internal critics, a few of them will have unlikely "accidents". Then declare "mission accomplished", a ceasefire and try to freeze the frontline round about where it is now (probably have to give up Kherson). Then try to portray Ukraine as the ones against peace.
Two thirds say Conservative MPs should replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister
Should replace 67%
Should not replace 21%
DK 12% https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1582371082895757312/photo/1
British public
Can regain trust 18%
Cannot regain trust 72%
Conservative MPs
Can regain trust 21%
Cannot regain trust 65%
Financial markets
Can regain trust 20%
Cannot regain trust 67% https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1582371087836332032/photo/1
Which is why I argue that what people said and saw about Putin 20 years may not have been wrong. Putin today is very different from Putin 20 years ago, I think.
'The longer the fire is left to rage, the greater the danger to the integrity of the skip, as the metal starts to warp and twist out of shape, beyond all recognition, eventually becoming completely unusable.
I am deeply committed to protecting our environment and our beautiful country. I firmly believe that we need tackle dumpster fires when they occur, regardless of how messy or unappealing this may be.
Indeed, the act of extinguishing the flames could well be the end of the skip they originated in. But urgent action is necessary nevertheless.'
https://www.questmedianetwork.co.uk/news/glossop-chronicle/largan-column-warning-of-the-dangers-of-dumpster-fires/
MPs from another party ought to be considered instead.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/18/japans-oldest-toilet-damaged-as-driver-backed-up
Japan’s oldest existing toilet, dating back hundreds of years, has been damaged after it was accidentally rammed by a car driven by an employee of an organisation that preserves cultural relics...
Approve 7% (-6 from 9 Oct)
Disapprove 77% (+7)
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/government-approval https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582372944512065536/photo/1
We can’t send water and leccy to Ukraine. That will be much more the problem
Putin has 2400 drones. And more coming. That’s a fuck of a lot. He can, perhaps, pound Ukrainian infrastructure relentlessly until there is a systemic failure and entire cities are without water and power for weeks at a time - and the population is helpless. In a Ukrainian winter
No matter how brave the Ukrainian soldiers - and they are decidedly brave - in that situation Ukraine would probably surrender
NHS +33
Housing +28
Taxation +22
Education +22
Economy +17
Unemployment +16
Immigration +9
Law and order +6
Brexit +1
Defence -3
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/which-political-party-would-be-the-best-at-handling-the-economy https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582372951579467776/photo/1
Economy* -81
Inflation* -78
Tax* -71
NHS -65
Immig. -65
Housing* -54
Crime -49
Welfare -45
Brexit -40
Transport -39
Environ. -33
Education -29
Unemp. -11
Defence +10
Terrorism +25
*lowest since tracker began mid-2019
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/economy/trackers/how-the-government-is-handling-the-economy-in-the-uk https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1582372958130958336/photo/1
'rates were so much higher back in the day'
Forgetting mortgages were 2-2.5x incomes not 5-6 as they are now.
Both are what happen previously, when things moved.
Musk: If Russia is faced with the choice of losing Crimea or using battlefield nukes, they will choose the latter. We've already sanctioned/cutoff Russia is every possible way, so what more do they have left to lose? If we nuke Russia back, they will nuke us and then we have WW3.
https://twitter.com/Exusnx/status/1582171572550311936?s=20&t=ZWY0R4f7sdPTOfHJnsVGVA
Soccer is a good and acceptable English word from the 19th century.
It comes from association.
Question is what the Iranians are getting in return given this has destroyed any goodwill they may have got in the EU. I do wonder whether the Russians have given them guarantees on quelling internal dissent.
We don't want WW3 with Putin but nor can we allow him to capture Kyiv either
Either way these attacks won't make Ukraine surrender. Quite the opposite, they will simply harden Ukrainian resolve. They are as pointless as Hitler's V1s and V2s were.
Ultra low rates have been poison for the economy and created a massive wealth transfer from the have-nots to the haves.
Edit: comparison not entirely relevant: the V-1 was not guided except by a crude compass and timer.
I know people who fly and build stuff in that size range as model aircraft.