Looks alright, I think. Worth mentioning the front end might change quite a bit, but doing that could be risky as a fundamental change will alter the airflow to the entire rest of the car. I hope Hulkenberg can continue his excellent run.
Topically musing, I don't read the tabloids and have no tv, so I don't know what the old guy is actually accused of doing. It could well be improper but not hugely disgusting.
Maybe I live on another planet, but I wonder whether most people know much more about it than I do. If they don't, then how can they be expected to give a meaningful opinion to a pollster? On second thought, is politics more about opinions than logic?
As he's apparently not been found guilty of a provable offence and seeing that he's had a slap on the wrist, are there not much worse things we should be worrying about?
If I am uniquely ignorant then please ignore the above.
It's relevant because the Lib Dems, and particularly those in Westminster, are falling out in lumps over this. There may be significant consequences that result from it all.
Topically musing, I don't read the tabloids and have no tv, so I don't know what the old guy is actually accused of doing. It could well be improper but not hugely disgusting.
Maybe I live on another planet, but I wonder whether most people know much more about it than I do. If they don't, then how can they be expected to give a meaningful opinion to a pollster? On second thought, is politics more about opinions than logic?
As he's apparently not been found guilty of a provable offence and seeing that he's had a slap on the wrist, are there not much worse things we should be worrying about?
If I am uniquely ignorant then please ignore the above.
It's relevant because the Lib Dems, and particularly those in Westminster, are falling out in lumps over this. There may be significant consequences that result from it all.
It's one of Lenin's "trifles that have significant consequences."
"I am afraid that I have had even more difficulty than usual in persuading Disqus to let me skim through your comments on last week's blog post. Perhaps I am guilty of technological incompetence but I really do not think that it should be a more demanding system than its predecessor."
Off topic, a good example of exactly what the Eurosceptics fear about EU laws being extended beyond their original intent.
The ECJ has this morning ruled that it is legal under the Single Market rules for the European Securities and Markets Authority to ban short selling within the EU even if the national governments disagree.
David_Herdson: "It's relevant because the Lib Dems, and particularly those in Westminster, are falling out in lumps over this. There may be significant consequences that result from it all."
Yes, I twigged that. I am sorry for the Lib Dems. They can be put to better use. Not being Tories for starters.
Mr. Tyndall, it's the propensity for that kind of anti-democratic, empire-building bullshit which makes me a firm sceptic. The EU and ECJ are both despicable institutions, seeking to gerrymander referendum results and (by deceit and stealth) rob nation-states of their sovereignty. The sooner we're out, the better.
Off topic, a good example of exactly what the Eurosceptics fear about EU laws being extended beyond their original intent.
The ECJ has this morning ruled that it is legal under the Single Market rules for the European Securities and Markets Authority to ban short selling within the EU even if the national governments disagree.
Vicky Pryce, the former wife of ex-MP Chris Huhne who was jailed for taking his speeding points, has resumed her role on a panel advising Business Secretary Vince Cable on the economy.
Vicky Pryce, the former wife of ex-MP Chris Huhne who was jailed for taking his speeding points, has resumed her role on a panel advising Business Secretary Vince Cable on the economy.
Mr. Tyndall, it's the propensity for that kind of anti-democratic, empire-building bullshit which makes me a firm sceptic. The EU and ECJ are both despicable institutions, seeking to gerrymander referendum results and (by deceit and stealth) rob nation-states of their sovereignty. The sooner we're out, the better.
Agreed. Compared to that, it's really beside the point whether EU membership adds 1 or 2% to GDP.
Vicky Pryce, the former wife of ex-MP Chris Huhne who was jailed for taking his speeding points, has resumed her role on a panel advising Business Secretary Vince Cable on the economy.
The Conservatives making any 'traction' on their economic success is probably off the table until the post-mortem's been done on the 2014 euros. It's not going to be pretty and any frustrations around that need to be exorcised and got off everyone's chests pretty quickly. The success of this will depend on how both the leadership *and* Tory MPs behave in June and whether they can keep their nerve.
There's then barely 6 weeks until we enter the summer silly season. Media/voter trailing of the big messages need to be heavily trailed pre-recess, to get a bit of momentum, as we'll be in full campaign mode from September onwards. I'm getting emails with snazzy graphics at the moment (as an ex-supporter) but this needs to go bigger and broader.
The Conservative positive messages are, of course; significant economic success, Cameron's leadership and a strategic plan for the future of Britain. I presume they are going to run with that ("let us finish the job", "labour can't be trusted", plus go negative on Miliband/Balls) and emphasise the willingness to take tough decision on immigration, welfare and the deficit. They'll hope that that, plus incumbency, plus donor funding, plus their 40/40 targeting strategy can carry them over the line as it'll need to be run more centrally this time, as the ground game won't be as good.
We'll see. I still expect a narrow lead for Conservatives on seats, but the difference between coming out with 280 seats or 300 seats will be wafer-thin.
Re discussions from earlier in thread - BoE thinks so.. James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 4m Bank of England minutes: "Tightening in eligibility requirements for some state benefits might have led to an intensification of job search"
I did wonder. The BoE now has an excuse for revising its target down and at the same time highlighting a successful set of Govt policies that the voters will welcome. A win win?
I am still of the view that the Conservatives will not get a majority in 2015, but if this continues to progress well, it could change my mind. It is also good news for all nett tax payers.
Vicky Pryce, the former wife of ex-MP Chris Huhne who was jailed for taking his speeding points, has resumed her role on a panel advising Business Secretary Vince Cable on the economy.
Watch the most beautiful tennis player, possibly in the history of the game, ooze class both during the game and in the post match interview... Then switch over to see Matthew Hancock and one of the Eagels twins on BBC2
Mr. Tyndall, it's the propensity for that kind of anti-democratic, empire-building bullshit which makes me a firm sceptic.
Maybe anti-democratic and empire-building compared to some developed countries, but not compared to the UK. The UK has an unelected head of state, an unelected second chamber and an indirectly elected leader with broad powers of patronage. And it built an empire that covered almost a quarter of the Earth's total land area.
Mr. Tokyo (capital of a country renowned for also not having an elected head of state), we elect the government. That's democratic.
The British Empire, like the Roman Empire, was of its time. The idea that the 19th century exploits of a country can be used to justify the theft by stealth of its sovereignty by the unelected, unaccountable and unacceptable is bonkers.
Mr. Tyndall, it's the propensity for that kind of anti-democratic, empire-building bullshit which makes me a firm sceptic.
Maybe anti-democratic and empire-building compared to some developed countries, but not compared to the UK. The UK has an unelected head of state, an unelected second chamber and an indirectly elected leader with broad powers of patronage. And it built an empire that covered almost a quarter of the Earth's total land area.
Miliband: Can Cameron confirm average wages are down £1,6000 since the election.
Cameron says unemployment is down, long-term unemployment is down, and youth unemployment is down. And there has been the biggest rise in history in employment.
Of course, there has been a slow growth in wages. That is because we are recovering from the longest recession in history.
He says Miliband's figure does not include the government's tax cuts.
I would agree with much of that Richard but steady as she goes means a gradual removal of the extraordinary measures that have been in place since 2008 to keep the economy alive after a horrific car crash by an incompetent driver. So we have seen the ending of the special arrangements for the banks, the winding up of QE, and a willingness to contemplate bolder and necessary cuts in public spending attacking the structural deficit.
The next step to normality is to restore real interest rates. This will take a considerable time, probably 3 or 4 more years of modest recovery, maybe more.
But keeping base rates at 0.5% is not cost free, it is a major distortion in our economy and robs the prudent and the saver. It encourages excessive investment in the housing market reducing affordability. It makes the pension deficits of those companies and the public sector with final salary pension entitlements almost unmanageable. It overly encourages consumption and the sucking in of imports.
I think by the end of this year it will be time to show that the economy is no longer in intensive care and to start to carve out a path to normality. The world will not end if interest rates climb to the dizzy heights of 1%.
David
It is worth reading the minutes of the latest MPC meeting to get a quick and very readable snapshot of the current state of the economy and the MPC's thinking on interest rates.
The paragraph on future rates is worth quoting:
Looking beyond the immediate policy decision, the Committee noted that while the recovery was becoming more firmly entrenched, productivity growth had been disappointing, and unemployment had fallen faster than expected. Inflation had returned to the 2% target, however, and cost pressures were subdued. Members therefore saw no immediate need to raise Bank Rate even if the 7% unemployment threshold were to be reached in the near future. Moreover, it was likely that the headwinds to growth associated with the aftermath of the financial crisis would persist for some time yet and that inflationary pressures would remain contained. Consequently when the time did come to raise Bank Rate, it would be appropriate to do so only gradually.
Elsewhere in the minutes is a reference to a Reuters prediction that the base rate will next rise in Spring 2015 and to supporting market expectations. This is not quite a BoE estimate but as close as we are likely to get.
Recovery of trade, productivity and business investment feature strongly in the minutes as pre-conditions for a sustainable recovery and we are likely to hear more of these metrics from the BoE in coming months than the headline rate of unemployment.
Mr. Eagles, not quite a direct copy, but pretty close. I think the comparison I've used more often is a drunk complaining the cleaner isn't cleaning up his vomit swiftly enough.
I take it Mr. Jessop's optimistic suggestion Miliband might apologise for his dickish behaviour over Mitchell was not acted upon by Leader of the Opposition?
Simon Kirby, the Conservative MP for Brighton Kemptown, says he is proud to represent a town with a large gay community. Does Cameron agree that the weather there is always sunny.
Cameron laughs. Brighton should get a mention on the shipping forecast, he says.
Mr. Tyndall, it's the propensity for that kind of anti-democratic, empire-building bullshit which makes me a firm sceptic.
Maybe anti-democratic and empire-building compared to some developed countries, but not compared to the UK. The UK has an unelected head of state, an unelected second chamber and an indirectly elected leader with broad powers of patronage. And it built an empire that covered almost a quarter of the Earth's total land area.
Rubbish. The EU is utterly undemocratic and the important decisions made in the UK are made by our elected Parliament which is answerable to the people. Rather than putting up straw man arguments try addressing the actual issue which is the spread of EU competencies into areas which we had been told they could not control. It is symptomatic of the way in which the EU cannot be trusted.
By the way, I wonder if you saw my post last night about the misleading claims being told by 'British Influence' about our trade deficit with the EU. It is a sign of how desperate they are becoming that they have to resort to such outright lies
@EiT - on a more serious note, I am happy the UK is democratic. Although a few things are creaking at the seems, our head of state is a de-facto ceremonial figurehead, the Lords effectively just revises/amends laws initiated by the Commons ( and can be overruled if it's obstructive ) and the indirectly elected leader holds his/her position through a mix of the court of public opinion and the results of elections. If he/she does not respond, he/she is punished.
It works effectively in practice, but isn't tidy in theory. Compared to the EU, there isn't much evidence of either the mechanism to respond to democratic pressures, or any results that suggest it has.
Given the historical situation - and the nature of the world as it was then - I am glad the British empire existed compared to its likely alternatives. Today's world is a far different matter.
Mr. Tyndall, it's the propensity for that kind of anti-democratic, empire-building bullshit which makes me a firm sceptic.
Maybe anti-democratic and empire-building compared to some developed countries, but not compared to the UK. The UK has an unelected head of state, an unelected second chamber and an indirectly elected leader with broad powers of patronage. And it built an empire that covered almost a quarter of the Earth's total land area.
It works effectively in practice, but isn't tidy in theory. Compared to the EU, there isn't much evidence of either the mechanism to respond to democratic pressures, or any results that suggest it has.
Having followed internet / IP law, this is definitely not true. ACTA was a good test case because the various institutions (both member states and parliament) were all subject to the same pressures: Internet users on one hand, copyright lobbyists on the other. The member states rolled over, it was the EU parliament that blocked it.
Rubbish. The EU is utterly undemocratic and the important decisions made in the UK are made by our elected Parliament which is answerable to the people. Rather than putting up straw man arguments try addressing the actual issue which is the spread of EU competencies into areas which we had been told they could not control.
PMQs simply showing how far Labour has to go to gain economic credibility.
And not just on the economy - as Cameron pointed out this year Miliband has led on questions (gambling machines, banking regulation, and today employment) which can be directly laid at Labour's door......
I've been forced to follow this dreary story on PB for days. It seems to obsess people here for unfathomable reasons to me.
One of the reasons I'm baffled is that the infinitely more serious allegations against Cyril Smith seemed to have been completely forgotten about. A sense of perspective is required here.
It seems the victim didn't even go to the police, but someone else did, and she seems to agree with the police's final decision.
The thing I find perplexing is the kangaroo court mentality afoot here, from people who ought to know better.
Anyway, I'm keeping my ammunition dry awaiting Dame Janet Smith's report, though that seems to have been delayed.
Correct, and apart from having an elected Upper House even less democratic than the UK, in that: - There's a huge urban vs rural disparity in population per seat. - Even when elected politicians have their hands on the levers of power, they're not actually connected to anything.
PMQs simply showing how far Labour has to go to gain economic credibility.
And not just on the economy - as Cameron pointed out this year Miliband has led on questions (gambling machines, banking regulation, and today employment) which can be directly laid at Labour's door......
Seems fair, they lost the election by quite a margin so you'd expect them to go back and see if they could think of anything their governments had been doing wrong...
Vicky Pryce, the former wife of ex-MP Chris Huhne who was jailed for taking his speeding points, has resumed her role on a panel advising Business Secretary Vince Cable on the economy.
It would have been and a security check, but holding a criminal record is no bar to holding a job.
I praise Vince Cable for his enlightened approach.
Speaking personally, but it's not the criminal record that I take offence to about this story. Does anybody believe there would have been any likelihood at all of Pryce getting a cushy government advisor's job (never mind calling it "enlightened", even ironically) if she'd been a man who had punched his wife through a glass window? This sort of double standard about domestic violence really, truly infuriates me - I never thought I'd ever sympathise with Chris Huhne, but if this is any way typical of what their marriage was like...
Mr. Eagles, doesn't change the fact the wife should be topped pronto, and Moriarty should stay dead.
There's no problem with Watson being married - he was in canon, after all - but the whole "female James Bond in hiding" stuff was a truly bizarre miscalculation, as was bringing back Moriarty. They're going to have to be very careful if/when the show comes back to avoid this being a major shark jumping moment.
Miriam Clegg has described claims in the Daily Telegraph that she influenced her husband's response to the row with Lord Rennard as a "complete fabrication".
The newspaper claimed the 45-year-old was "furious" at Lord Rennard's refusal to apologise to the woman who accused him of sexual harassment, and had "shaped" Nick Clegg's response to the row.
Simon Kirby, the Conservative MP for Brighton Kemptown, says he is proud to represent a town with a large gay community. Does Cameron agree that the weather there is always sunny.
Cameron laughs. Brighton should get a mention on the shipping forecast, he says.
'double dig'
I don't see why Dopey Dave is laughing.
The Tories will lose Brighton Kemptown at the next election.
General Election 2010:Brighton Kemptown
Conservative 16,217 38.0 Labour 14,889 34.9 Liberal Democrat 7,691 18.0 Green 2,330 5.5 UKIP 1,384 3.2 TUSC 194 0.5
Furthermore, the councillor that Dopey Dave mocks was a Conservative one for many years.
Rubbish. The EU is utterly undemocratic and the important decisions made in the UK are made by our elected Parliament which is answerable to the people. Rather than putting up straw man arguments try addressing the actual issue which is the spread of EU competencies into areas which we had been told they could not control.
Who told you what specifically?
The Court’s Advocate General, Niilo Jääskinen. He said that the emergency power went beyond what the watchdog could do under the EU treaty provision used to approve the law. This was the position of the UK government as well which is why they pursued the case.
Simon Kirby, the Conservative MP for Brighton Kemptown, says he is proud to represent a town with a large gay community. Does Cameron agree that the weather there is always sunny.
Cameron laughs. Brighton should get a mention on the shipping forecast, he says.
'double dig'
The Tories will lose Brighton Kemptown at the next election. ?
Simon Kirby, the Conservative MP for Brighton Kemptown, says he is proud to represent a town with a large gay community. Does Cameron agree that the weather there is always sunny.
Cameron laughs. Brighton should get a mention on the shipping forecast, he says.
'double dig'
I don't see why Dopey Dave is laughing.
The Tories will lose Brighton Kemptown at the next election.
General Election 2010:Brighton Kemptown
Conservative 16,217 38.0 Labour 14,889 34.9 Liberal Democrat 7,691 18.0 Green 2,330 5.5 UKIP 1,384 3.2 TUSC 194 0.5
Furthermore, the councillor that Dopey Dave mocks was a Conservative one for many years.
Anyone read the Hancock report that Guido has posted ?
How this chap is an MP is a mystery to me.
Absolutely disgraceful, both the behaviour and the LD attempts to bury it.
I think this will have even greater traction than Rennard, if the papers and TV news are legally able to run with it. And the conjunction of Rennard/Hancock is horrific for the LDs.
Simon Kirby, the Conservative MP for Brighton Kemptown, says he is proud to represent a town with a large gay community. Does Cameron agree that the weather there is always sunny.
Cameron laughs. Brighton should get a mention on the shipping forecast, he says.
'double dig'
The Tories will lose Brighton Kemptown at the next election. ?
Will ? Free money is it ?
Probably, it is one R Nabavi did not advise in his series of seat bets.
Anyone read the Hancock report that Guido has posted ?
How this chap is an MP is a mystery to me.
Absolutely disgraceful, both the behaviour and the LD attempts to bury it.
I think this will have even greater traction than Rennard, if the papers and TV news are legally able to run with it. And the conjunction of Rennard/Hancock is horrific for the LDs.
Rubbish. The EU is utterly undemocratic and the important decisions made in the UK are made by our elected Parliament which is answerable to the people. Rather than putting up straw man arguments try addressing the actual issue which is the spread of EU competencies into areas which we had been told they could not control.
Who told you what specifically?
The Court’s Advocate General, Niilo Jääskinen. He said that the emergency power went beyond what the watchdog could do under the EU treaty provision used to approve the law. This was the position of the UK government as well which is why they pursued the case.
If you're going to decide you've been robbed whenever a court reaches an opinion that's different to the opinion of a lower court or some other authority then you're not going to be happy with any kind of government.
Anyone read the Hancock report that Guido has posted ?
How this chap is an MP is a mystery to me.
Absolutely disgraceful, both the behaviour and the LD attempts to bury it.
I think this will have even greater traction than Rennard, if the papers and TV news are legally able to run with it. And the conjunction of Rennard/Hancock is horrific for the LDs.
Anyone read the Hancock report that Guido has posted ?
How this chap is an MP is a mystery to me.
Absolutely disgraceful, both the behaviour and the LD attempts to bury it.
I think this will have even greater traction than Rennard, if the papers and TV news are legally able to run with it. And the conjunction of Rennard/Hancock is horrific for the LDs.
Guido and others have been trying to smear Hancock for 10 years now but the people in his ward and Portsmouth South keep increasing his majority .
I like to put myself in the shoes of someone who argues the opposite to what I believe.
I always believed that we needed to live within our means as a country, and after the 2010 GE, that we needed to urgently tackle the deficit and ensure that our public finances were paying out less than we were taking in. I signed up to the Tory argument.
I listened with interest to the opposite argument, put forward by Ed Balls, Ed Miliband and Brown and Krugman and Blanchflower etc, and - at times when the economy was stumbling around through 2011 and 2012 - wondered if they were right. That tackling a deficit and making cuts (limited though they have been) suffocates growth and worsens the deficit/debt pile.
Perhaps they still are right? But, and I'm putting myself in the Balls/Miliband shoes today, right now must be a difficult time for them. I wonder if they feel they've lost the argument? Miliband's face today as he sat down following his final question looked annoyed, pissed-off even. He looked like a man who is losing the argument.
Of course, these guys are politicians and they will unashamedly try to move the argument and dividing lines on (just as politicians on any other side would). But, for Labour supporters out there, do you think you have lost, or are losing, the big argument right now?
The economy is on the up. Confidence is improving. The employment figures are magnificent. All good news stories that I confess I didn't even believe would happen during this parliament.
It'll take a person with remarkable self-belief and inner confidence and chutzpah to stand in Ed Balls's shoes right now and go on telly to persuade us all that he is still right, and that Osborne was wrong.
I'm 90% sure now that Labour were wrong on the big austerity/growth argument. It awaits to be seen if they were and how this will affect them at the next GE.
Anyone read the Hancock report that Guido has posted ?
How this chap is an MP is a mystery to me.
Absolutely disgraceful, both the behaviour and the LD attempts to bury it.
I think this will have even greater traction than Rennard, if the papers and TV news are legally able to run with it. And the conjunction of Rennard/Hancock is horrific for the LDs.
Guido and others have been trying to smear Hancock for 10 years now but the people in his ward and Portsmouth South keep increasing his majority .
They have not attempted to smear him this time - they have simply published the QCs report with the victim's name redacted - have you read it ?
Guido and others have been trying to smear Hancock for 10 years now but the people in his ward and Portsmouth South keep increasing his majority .
FFS Mark, get off your self-righteous high horse and read the report. The man is absolutely disgusting and you and your party should be treating him as a pariah.
Anyone read the Hancock report that Guido has posted ?
How this chap is an MP is a mystery to me.
Absolutely disgraceful, both the behaviour and the LD attempts to bury it.
I think this will have even greater traction than Rennard, if the papers and TV news are legally able to run with it. And the conjunction of Rennard/Hancock is horrific for the LDs.
I thought he'd had the Lib Dem whip removed? If so, he can't stand for them in 2015.
Anyone read the Hancock report that Guido has posted ?
How this chap is an MP is a mystery to me.
Absolutely disgraceful, both the behaviour and the LD attempts to bury it.
I think this will have even greater traction than Rennard, if the papers and TV news are legally able to run with it. And the conjunction of Rennard/Hancock is horrific for the LDs.
Guido and others have been trying to smear Hancock for 10 years now but the people in his ward and Portsmouth South keep increasing his majority .
Do potential smearers include the editor of Lib Dem voice ?
Must be fun to be a Lib Dem card carrier right now
If these Lib Dem storms continue, and the Rennard case could be going on still right through the General Election time - I can see Lib Dems in Labour seats hopping ship to Labour but perhaps Labour voters in Lib Dem seats either staying at home or sticking with Labour.
It could be a massacre come GE2015 for the Lib Dems.
Anyone read the Hancock report that Guido has posted ?
How this chap is an MP is a mystery to me.
Absolutely disgraceful, both the behaviour and the LD attempts to bury it.
I think this will have even greater traction than Rennard, if the papers and TV news are legally able to run with it. And the conjunction of Rennard/Hancock is horrific for the LDs.
Guido and others have been trying to smear Hancock for 10 years now but the people in his ward and Portsmouth South keep increasing his majority .
Have you read the report? Do you think Hancock's behaviour was commendable?
There seems little doubt that Hancock has been protected by the council and the Lib Dems for years. The fact that some major evidence has been lost by the police stinks.
The Monetary Policy Committee minutes of their last meeting reveal BoE thinking on the growth in the last quarter of 2013.
The SWIFT Index published on Monday turned in a disappointing nowcast of 0.4% for UK 2013 Q4 GDP growth. This is well below the median estimate of economics forecasters which stands at 0.7%.
One reason for SWIFT coming in so low is that their Index is principally built on an aggregate of international business to business transactions conducted through the SWIFT network. It is therefore built on an analysis of trade transactions and we know that UK net trade declined in Q3 2013 and has lagged domestic output in the recovery. As the MPC minutes state:
Exports had fallen by 3% on the quarter and net trade had reduced growth by around 1¼ percentage points.
So if the SWIFT index may reflect the relative decline of trade, where does the BoE stand. No Q4 estimate was given in the minutes but there was a combined forecast for Q4 2013 and Q1 2014?
The domestic recovery appeared to have taken hold, driven largely by household sector spending, as credit conditions loosened and uncertainty dissipated. GDP growth had not been revised, at 0.8% in Q3, and upward revisions to earlier quarters suggested that the recovery had more momentum than previously believed. The recent strength of both the business surveys and employment growth pointed to above-trend growth around the turn of the year. But the precise pace of growth was uncertain and there were upside risks to the Bank staff’s estimates of growth of a little under 1% per quarter in the fourth quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014. Even so, the legacy of the financial crisis at home and abroad meant that the domestic recovery continued to face a number of headwinds and its continuation was likely to require a pickup in real income growth, underpinned by a more sustained expansion in corporate spending and an improvement in productivity performance. Net trade had reduced growth in Q3. And while the risks to the global outlook appeared more balanced, it would be difficult for net trade to make a more significant positive contribution to growth as long as activity in the United Kingdom’s main trading partners remained subdued.
Now a 0.9% - 1.0% forecast for the two quarters implies stronger than 0.4% in Q4 but the difference is not too great. The official OBR forecast for Q1 2014 is 0.5% (as for all other quarters in 2014), which is consistent with this BoE statement.
So a GDP growth figure of around 0.4% - 0.6% for Q4 2013 may well be on the cards for next Tuesday. This doesn't augur as well for next week's PMQs as the employment statistics did for today's.
So that is the PM of the UK held to account for another week was it? Deary me. You really got the impression that Cameron was not even out of second gear and saw no need to do so.
The long pause in response to the braying by tory backbenchers by Miliband was just embarrassing. He looked like he almost wanted to cry.
I am not sure what has gone wrong here. For a time last Autumn Miliband really seemed to have the measure of Cameron and was besting him more often than not. What has changed? Clearly the economy has got better but not markedly so since then. Ed seems to have lost some of his enthusiasm. The polls remain good for him but he does seem out of sorts.
Afternoon colleagues and others, I was one of those men in the 40%. If the LibDems want to impose the criminal level of culpability for a breach of club rules, they must live by the consequences.
Anyone read the Hancock report that Guido has posted ?
How this chap is an MP is a mystery to me.
Absolutely disgraceful, both the behaviour and the LD attempts to bury it.
I think this will have even greater traction than Rennard, if the papers and TV news are legally able to run with it. And the conjunction of Rennard/Hancock is horrific for the LDs.
I thought he'd had the Lib Dem whip removed? If so, he can't stand for them in 2015.
Not removed, Mike Hancock MP resigned the whip over sexual assault allegations "in the best interests of the party nationally".
The polls still show the only main 'Opposition' party in the lead, but Ed Miliband's personal polling as Labour Leader along with the combined polling for him and Ed Balls on the economy is certainly not good.
So that is the PM of the UK held to account for another week was it? Deary me. You really got the impression that Cameron was not even out of second gear and saw no need to do so.
The long pause in response to the braying by tory backbenchers by Miliband was just embarrassing. He looked like he almost wanted to cry.
I am not sure what has gone wrong here. For a time last Autumn Miliband really seemed to have the measure of Cameron and was besting him more often than not. What has changed? Clearly the economy has got better but not markedly so since then. Ed seems to have lost some of his enthusiasm. The polls remain good for him but he does seem out of sorts.
So that is the PM of the UK held to account for another week was it? Deary me. You really got the impression that Cameron was not even out of second gear and saw no need to do so.
The long pause in response to the braying by tory backbenchers by Miliband was just embarrassing. He looked like he almost wanted to cry.
I am not sure what has gone wrong here. For a time last Autumn Miliband really seemed to have the measure of Cameron and was besting him more often than not. What has changed? Clearly the economy has got better but not markedly so since then. Ed seems to have lost some of his enthusiasm. The polls remain good for him but he does seem out of sorts.
Ed tried not to do the punch and judy politics(toenails robinson kept telling us),it lasted 2 weeks,did you see ed's second Question,punch and judy was back.
@EiT - on a more serious note, I am happy the UK is democratic...
It works effectively in practice, but isn't tidy in theory. Compared to the EU, there isn't much evidence of either the mechanism to respond to democratic pressures, or any results that suggest it has.
FWIW, that's not my experience in my recent years as an animal welfare lobbyist, nor that of colleagues in other areas like IT, and I wonder whether you've actually ever tried to press your elected representatives in either? The EU is designed to compromise and split differences - if you go to the European Parliament with a reasonable idea, you will often get a slice of what you want, but not all of it. The British government (all British governments, not just this one) start from the position that they're perfect, and it's usually a struggle to get them to listen to any alternative policy, never mind do anything.
That isn't particularly a pro-EU point, more an argument for less defensive government than we usually practice in Britain.
1. The temperature in the Lib Dem party seems to be reducing ever so slightly. Comments being made are more measured, and it was welcome to see Chris Davies MEP roll back from what he said about trivialising the alleged offences a few days ago.
2. There does seem to be a firm split in the party. We have had one local party member resign this week citing the Rennard story (a supporter, argues that due process must be followed) but he was looking for a reason to go anyway.
3. I don't see any way that Lord Rennard can have an active role in the party, when wherever he goes half the members want him out. Taking legal action to force the party to re-admit him will just leave him with pariah status and I'm sure he knows this.
4. I think formal mediation is the only way forward. The outcome I'd aim for now - given that a simple apology is out of the question - is that Lord Rennard permanently leaves the parliamentary party in the Lords, remains a party member but loses his place on Federal Policy Committee (which he may be most bothered about.) that he is allowed substantial input into revising disciplinary procedures and that his accusers accept that the criminal burden of proof could not be reached, with all sides committing to no legal action.
5. I agree with TheScreamingEagles that Tim Farron has been damaged by this. The role of party president is to hold the party together, particularly the voluntary and parliamentary parties, and he's failed badly. He's due to stand down as party president later this year but perhaps he should consider doing this sooner. This has not helped his leadership prospects at all.
6. If what people are tweeting about Mike Hancock is true, then I agree with Stephen Tall. Hancock must leave the Lib Dem group on the council and must not be allowed to stand again as a Lib Dem in Westminster or Portsmouth. Unless he disputes the findings, it is difficult to defend him, and Gerald Vernon-Jackson's moment has come.
Comments
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/25842953
Looks alright, I think. Worth mentioning the front end might change quite a bit, but doing that could be risky as a fundamental change will alter the airflow to the entire rest of the car. I hope Hulkenberg can continue his excellent run.
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 4m
Bank of England minutes: "Tightening in eligibility requirements for some state benefits might have led to an intensification of job search"
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/normantebbit/100256013/suddenly-i-feel-sorry-for-lord-rennard/
"I am afraid that I have had even more difficulty than usual in persuading Disqus to let me skim through your comments on last week's blog post. Perhaps I am guilty of technological incompetence but I really do not think that it should be a more demanding system than its predecessor."
The ECJ has this morning ruled that it is legal under the Single Market rules for the European Securities and Markets Authority to ban short selling within the EU even if the national governments disagree.
http://curia.europa.eu/jcms/upload/docs/application/pdf/2014-01/cp140007en.pdf
This is a major extension of EU competence into an area that was supposed to be ring-fenced from their interference.
"It's relevant because the Lib Dems, and particularly those in Westminster, are falling out in lumps over this. There may be significant consequences that result from it all."
Yes, I twigged that. I am sorry for the Lib Dems. They can be put to better use. Not being Tories for starters.
Vicky Pryce, the former wife of ex-MP Chris Huhne who was jailed for taking his speeding points, has resumed her role on a panel advising Business Secretary Vince Cable on the economy.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25844091
On the flip side, another winning bet.
There's then barely 6 weeks until we enter the summer silly season. Media/voter trailing of the big messages need to be heavily trailed pre-recess, to get a bit of momentum, as we'll be in full campaign mode from September onwards. I'm getting emails with snazzy graphics at the moment (as an ex-supporter) but this needs to go bigger and broader.
The Conservative positive messages are, of course; significant economic success, Cameron's leadership and a strategic plan for the future of Britain. I presume they are going to run with that ("let us finish the job", "labour can't be trusted", plus go negative on Miliband/Balls) and emphasise the willingness to take tough decision on immigration, welfare and the deficit. They'll hope that that, plus incumbency, plus donor funding, plus their 40/40 targeting strategy can carry them over the line as it'll need to be run more centrally this time, as the ground game won't be as good.
We'll see. I still expect a narrow lead for Conservatives on seats, but the difference between coming out with 280 seats or 300 seats will be wafer-thin.
I am still of the view that the Conservatives will not get a majority in 2015, but if this continues to progress well, it could change my mind. It is also good news for all nett tax payers.
I praise Vince Cable for his enlightened approach.
BBC One has revealed that Sherlock has become the most-watched drama series in the UK in over 10 years.
http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s129/sherlock/news/a545777/sherlock-is-most-watched-drama-in-over-a-decade.html
The British Empire, like the Roman Empire, was of its time. The idea that the 19th century exploits of a country can be used to justify the theft by stealth of its sovereignty by the unelected, unaccountable and unacceptable is bonkers.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/21/alleged-victim-lord-rennard-amy-kitcher
Cameron says unemployment is down, long-term unemployment is down, and youth unemployment is down. And there has been the biggest rise in history in employment.
Of course, there has been a slow growth in wages. That is because we are recovering from the longest recession in history.
He says Miliband's figure does not include the government's tax cuts.
'slap'
I would agree with much of that Richard but steady as she goes means a gradual removal of the extraordinary measures that have been in place since 2008 to keep the economy alive after a horrific car crash by an incompetent driver. So we have seen the ending of the special arrangements for the banks, the winding up of QE, and a willingness to contemplate bolder and necessary cuts in public spending attacking the structural deficit.
The next step to normality is to restore real interest rates. This will take a considerable time, probably 3 or 4 more years of modest recovery, maybe more.
But keeping base rates at 0.5% is not cost free, it is a major distortion in our economy and robs the prudent and the saver. It encourages excessive investment in the housing market reducing affordability. It makes the pension deficits of those companies and the public sector with final salary pension entitlements almost unmanageable. It overly encourages consumption and the sucking in of imports.
I think by the end of this year it will be time to show that the economy is no longer in intensive care and to start to carve out a path to normality. The world will not end if interest rates climb to the dizzy heights of 1%.
David
It is worth reading the minutes of the latest MPC meeting to get a quick and very readable snapshot of the current state of the economy and the MPC's thinking on interest rates.
The paragraph on future rates is worth quoting:
Looking beyond the immediate policy decision, the Committee noted that while the recovery was becoming more firmly entrenched, productivity growth had been disappointing, and unemployment had fallen faster than expected. Inflation had returned to the 2% target, however, and cost pressures were subdued. Members therefore saw no immediate need to raise Bank Rate even if the 7% unemployment threshold were to be reached in the near future. Moreover, it was likely that the headwinds to growth associated with the aftermath of the financial crisis would persist for some time yet and that inflationary pressures would remain contained. Consequently when the time did come to raise Bank Rate, it would be appropriate to do so only gradually.
Elsewhere in the minutes is a reference to a Reuters prediction that the base rate will next rise in Spring 2015 and to supporting market expectations. This is not quite a BoE estimate but as close as we are likely to get.
Recovery of trade, productivity and business investment feature strongly in the minutes as pre-conditions for a sustainable recovery and we are likely to hear more of these metrics from the BoE in coming months than the headline rate of unemployment.
Link to MPC Minutes: http://bit.ly/1aKFNl4
I take it Mr. Jessop's optimistic suggestion Miliband might apologise for his dickish behaviour over Mitchell was not acted upon by Leader of the Opposition?
Cameron laughs. Brighton should get a mention on the shipping forecast, he says.
'double dig'
By the way, I wonder if you saw my post last night about the misleading claims being told by 'British Influence' about our trade deficit with the EU. It is a sign of how desperate they are becoming that they have to resort to such outright lies
It works effectively in practice, but isn't tidy in theory. Compared to the EU, there isn't much evidence of either the mechanism to respond to democratic pressures, or any results that suggest it has.
Given the historical situation - and the nature of the world as it was then - I am glad the British empire existed compared to its likely alternatives. Today's world is a far different matter.
Japan is also a Monarchy and once had an empire!
One of the reasons I'm baffled is that the infinitely more serious allegations against Cyril Smith seemed to have been completely forgotten about. A sense of perspective is required here.
It seems the victim didn't even go to the police, but someone else did, and she seems to agree with the police's final decision.
The thing I find perplexing is the kangaroo court mentality afoot here, from people who ought to know better.
Anyway, I'm keeping my ammunition dry awaiting Dame Janet Smith's report, though that seems to have been delayed.
http://www.broadcastnow.co.uk/news/broadcasters/dame-janet-smith-review-delayed-by-police-request/5065615.article?blocktitle=LATEST-NEWS&contentID=870
- There's a huge urban vs rural disparity in population per seat.
- Even when elected politicians have their hands on the levers of power, they're not actually connected to anything.
How this chap is an MP is a mystery to me.
Does anybody believe there would have been any likelihood at all of Pryce getting a cushy government advisor's job (never mind calling it "enlightened", even ironically) if she'd been a man who had punched his wife through a glass window? This sort of double standard about domestic violence really, truly infuriates me - I never thought I'd ever sympathise with Chris Huhne, but if this is any way typical of what their marriage was like...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/vicky-pryce-gave-chris-huhne-a-black-eye-after-she-found-out-about-his-affair-court-hears-9073134.html
The newspaper claimed the 45-year-old was "furious" at Lord Rennard's refusal to apologise to the woman who accused him of sexual harassment, and had "shaped" Nick Clegg's response to the row.
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-01-22/miriam-clegg-telegraph-story-a-complete-fabrication/
The Tories will lose Brighton Kemptown at the next election.
General Election 2010:Brighton Kemptown
Conservative 16,217 38.0
Labour 14,889 34.9
Liberal Democrat 7,691 18.0
Green 2,330 5.5
UKIP 1,384 3.2
TUSC 194 0.5
Furthermore, the councillor that Dopey Dave mocks was a Conservative one for many years.
Isn't a politician supposed to attract voters?
Man shares post seeking his arrest on Facebook; is arrested within the hour
http://metro.co.uk/2014/01/22/man-shares-post-seeking-his-arrest-to-facebook-is-arrested-within-the-hour-4272690/
Alan Roden @AlanRoden 23m
Nicola Sturgeon is... pic.twitter.com/sHbKeIiMET
I think this will have even greater traction than Rennard, if the papers and TV news are legally able to run with it. And the conjunction of Rennard/Hancock is horrific for the LDs.
Stephen Tall @stephentall 1m
I cannot see how Mike Hancock can possibly stand as a Lib Dem at the 2015 election. Or at all.
I always believed that we needed to live within our means as a country, and after the 2010 GE, that we needed to urgently tackle the deficit and ensure that our public finances were paying out less than we were taking in. I signed up to the Tory argument.
I listened with interest to the opposite argument, put forward by Ed Balls, Ed Miliband and Brown and Krugman and Blanchflower etc, and - at times when the economy was stumbling around through 2011 and 2012 - wondered if they were right. That tackling a deficit and making cuts (limited though they have been) suffocates growth and worsens the deficit/debt pile.
Perhaps they still are right? But, and I'm putting myself in the Balls/Miliband shoes today, right now must be a difficult time for them. I wonder if they feel they've lost the argument? Miliband's face today as he sat down following his final question looked annoyed, pissed-off even. He looked like a man who is losing the argument.
Of course, these guys are politicians and they will unashamedly try to move the argument and dividing lines on (just as politicians on any other side would). But, for Labour supporters out there, do you think you have lost, or are losing, the big argument right now?
The economy is on the up. Confidence is improving. The employment figures are magnificent. All good news stories that I confess I didn't even believe would happen during this parliament.
It'll take a person with remarkable self-belief and inner confidence and chutzpah to stand in Ed Balls's shoes right now and go on telly to persuade us all that he is still right, and that Osborne was wrong.
I'm 90% sure now that Labour were wrong on the big austerity/growth argument. It awaits to be seen if they were and how this will affect them at the next GE.
Must be fun to be a Lib Dem card carrier right now
It could be a massacre come GE2015 for the Lib Dems.
There seems little doubt that Hancock has been protected by the council and the Lib Dems for years. The fact that some major evidence has been lost by the police stinks.
But are the voters ;-)
The SWIFT Index published on Monday turned in a disappointing nowcast of 0.4% for UK 2013 Q4 GDP growth. This is well below the median estimate of economics forecasters which stands at 0.7%.
One reason for SWIFT coming in so low is that their Index is principally built on an aggregate of international business to business transactions conducted through the SWIFT network. It is therefore built on an analysis of trade transactions and we know that UK net trade declined in Q3 2013 and has lagged domestic output in the recovery. As the MPC minutes state:
Exports had fallen by 3% on the quarter and net trade had reduced growth by around 1¼ percentage points.
So if the SWIFT index may reflect the relative decline of trade, where does the BoE stand. No Q4 estimate was given in the minutes but there was a combined forecast for Q4 2013 and Q1 2014?
The domestic recovery appeared to have taken hold, driven largely by household sector spending, as credit conditions loosened and uncertainty dissipated. GDP growth had not been revised, at 0.8% in Q3, and upward revisions to earlier quarters suggested that the recovery had more momentum than previously believed. The recent strength of both the business surveys and employment growth pointed to above-trend growth around the turn of the year. But the precise pace of growth was uncertain and there were upside risks to the Bank staff’s estimates of growth of a little under 1% per quarter in the fourth quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014. Even so, the legacy of the financial crisis at home and abroad meant that the domestic recovery continued to face a number of headwinds and its continuation was likely to require a pickup in real income growth, underpinned by a more sustained expansion in corporate spending and an improvement in productivity performance. Net trade had reduced growth in Q3. And while the risks to the global outlook appeared more balanced, it would be difficult for net trade to make a more significant positive contribution to growth as long as activity in the United Kingdom’s main trading partners remained subdued.
Now a 0.9% - 1.0% forecast for the two quarters implies stronger than 0.4% in Q4 but the difference is not too great. The official OBR forecast for Q1 2014 is 0.5% (as for all other quarters in 2014), which is consistent with this BoE statement.
So a GDP growth figure of around 0.4% - 0.6% for Q4 2013 may well be on the cards for next Tuesday. This doesn't augur as well for next week's PMQs as the employment statistics did for today's.
The long pause in response to the braying by tory backbenchers by Miliband was just embarrassing. He looked like he almost wanted to cry.
I am not sure what has gone wrong here. For a time last Autumn Miliband really seemed to have the measure of Cameron and was besting him more often than not. What has changed? Clearly the economy has got better but not markedly so since then. Ed seems to have lost some of his enthusiasm. The polls remain good for him but he does seem out of sorts.
Another politician full of sh!t.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100256031/the-rise-of-ukip-and-the-lib-dems-being-rubbish-are-keeping-ed-miliband-in-a-job/
That isn't particularly a pro-EU point, more an argument for less defensive government than we usually practice in Britain.
Barney Curley related horses in massive price cut shock...
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/eye-of-the-tiger-indus-valley-low-key-callisto-light-kempton-a-w-all-weather-quartet-cut-in-lively-markets/1596402/top/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews
Last time this happened some bookies refused to pay out because they weren't in the know. absolute filth that shows them for what they are
2. There does seem to be a firm split in the party. We have had one local party member resign this week citing the Rennard story (a supporter, argues that due process must be followed) but he was looking for a reason to go anyway.
3. I don't see any way that Lord Rennard can have an active role in the party, when wherever he goes half the members want him out. Taking legal action to force the party to re-admit him will just leave him with pariah status and I'm sure he knows this.
4. I think formal mediation is the only way forward. The outcome I'd aim for now - given that a simple apology is out of the question - is that Lord Rennard permanently leaves the parliamentary party in the Lords, remains a party member but loses his place on Federal Policy Committee (which he may be most bothered about.) that he is allowed substantial input into revising disciplinary procedures and that his accusers accept that the criminal burden of proof could not be reached, with all sides committing to no legal action.
5. I agree with TheScreamingEagles that Tim Farron has been damaged by this. The role of party president is to hold the party together, particularly the voluntary and parliamentary parties, and he's failed badly. He's due to stand down as party president later this year but perhaps he should consider doing this sooner. This has not helped his leadership prospects at all.
6. If what people are tweeting about Mike Hancock is true, then I agree with Stephen Tall. Hancock must leave the Lib Dem group on the council and must not be allowed to stand again as a Lib Dem in Westminster or Portsmouth. Unless he disputes the findings, it is difficult to defend him, and Gerald Vernon-Jackson's moment has come.